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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden back as favourite for the nomination after Harris fails

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    macisback said:

    Biden and Harris both look unconvincing for different reasons. Bernie Sanders surely established his ceiling against Hillary last time, so looks booked for another podium finish but not the chequered flay. Elizabeth Warren: oh, I don't know.

    There is a month off now, isn't there, and then the no-hopers are dropped?

    Even the Beeb called out Harris as a loser.

    How much are her odds simply driven by the belief she’s a female Obama?
    Harris clearly has a big machine behind her, a lot of Clinton staff are running her campaign and there has even been talk the Obama's will back her. I just don't see her justifying the hype, Tulsi really took her down last night and her economic analysis is akin to the average BBC reporter. I think Warren is much more likely to trouble Trump in campaign, Harris looks out of her depth outside legal spheres, even there Tulsi took a huge look at her performance.
    Thanks. Helpful.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
    At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.

    The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
    It would be nice if someone could come up with a church without God. A place where you can get together with your neighbours, mobilise to help others, be told some uplifting stuff and sing a load of great songs, without being told you're better than other people, or that the world was made in a way clearly rendered implausible by modern science, or that some people were born wrong.
    It’s called the Church of England.

    Slightly more seriously, that’s not too far from modern Quakerism, but obviously they don’t have the great songs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    He that is without sin, cast the first stone!
    We don't want people throwing stones.

    Some sandpaper while Warner is fielding down at third man would be quite funny, however.

    A nasty bully who dished it out for years but doesn't like it when his crimes are thrown back at him.
    An alternative view is one of the most exciting opening batsmen in the world today, hopefully matched in this series by Jason Roy. I find this going on about the ball tampering tedious. Teams have done this since time immemorial and they have served their time.

    I am expecting a close series with a lot of results. Both teams have much better bowling attacks than batsmen. 3-4 days tests would not surprise me at all.
    I wouldn't have got quite so worked up about ball-tampering if he had done it himself. After all, Mike Atherton and Faf du Plessis both had, ummm, interesting approaches to ball shining. But getting a nervous young player like Bancroft, who when he played for Gloucestershire obviously always felt very insecure, to do it and then lying repeatedly about it was more than a bit off.

    Also, the fact he is so gratuitously unpleasant to everybody and than can't take criticism of himself isn't impressive.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    macisback said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    He that is without sin, cast the first stone!
    We don't want people throwing stones.

    Some sandpaper while Warner is fielding down at third man would be quite funny, however.

    A nasty bully who dished it out for years but doesn't like it when his crimes are thrown back at him.
    I cant see any problem with the booing. They're hugely talented and that will be respected and will define their careers at the end of the day, but they did cheat, they can hardly complain that people bring it up.
    It could be counter productive, both have the ability to get the runs that get Australia over the line in this series. Yes they got found out by the South African broadcasters but the punishments ridiculously harsh. The Aussie authorities regretted that when they hardly won a game when they were out and interest in the team dropped dramatically. Just support for the England team is what I want to hear, non stop boorish abuse of Warne never seemed to work.
    Yeah, after the first debate I laid Harris, backed Biden (at 7.8!) and Sanders. All of those have now moved in the right direction but I think Harris is still too short, Biden and Sanders still too long.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
    At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.

    The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
    I could believe that (though it seems a little optimistic), but it does mask the health of each congregation. My limited second-hand knowledge of both mid-Wales and Gwynedd suggests that single-figure, very elderly congregations are the norm. A friend started attending chapel in her early 30s and was practically greeted as the new Messiah!

    (Methodist and Baptist churches are struggling in rural England too, of course.)
    I don't know why you said 'rural.' My experience is that they are struggling badly in urban England too.

    And yes, I would partly agree with your post, although again, it varies. The chapels in Aberystwyth are still pretty full, those in Borth are now pretty houses.
    The churches with the biggest congregations tend to be evangelical in the inner cities with large ethnic minority attendance now
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
    At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.

    The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
    The ultimate 'chapels they don't go to'!
    In 2002 the two surviving Presbyterian churches in Aberystwyth merged.

    Half of the congregation of the one that closed refused to join the congregation of the one that remained open.

    Here's a story for this morning though:

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/remote-welsh-chapel-theres-only-14506732
    ydoethur, lovely little story and it highlights the moral decline in this country, what kind of moron smashes up a chapel in a small place like that. Typifies the state of the UK in general and politics in particular, but as long as the fannies in London get every bit of money needed for vanity projects.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    I am not surprised!
    This is the 21st century not the 1950s, yes we can still have the happily married and loyal to their first love PM as the ideal but in reality many now divorce, have live in partners, children out of wedlock etc and Boris' situation is no difficult to millions of others
    But the fact that the matter is being raised at all rather suggests that many voters do not buy into such morality - and ,in particular, expect a better example from a PM.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.

    If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.

    If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.

    If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.

    As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.

    All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.

    In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
    I think Labour's Brexit policy is right for government and I wouldn't like to see it change to "We'll try to negotiate a better deal and then we promise to campaign against it", which is just daft. But it's poor for a by-election when only the motivated turn out, and not great for a GE. I expect Labour to drop to 4% or so, but I don't think that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).
    In that case it is between you and Corbyn as to who turns the lights out.

    In what has become a binary choice, second vote or no deal, fence sitters will be blown to kingdom come.

    I cannot see any deal which will satisfy the majority from either side now. Any deal will be both too Brexity, or not Brexity enough.
    Labour's policy is a second vote.
    A second vote where we actually know what the options are. Under the LDs plan, what happens if we vote Leave again?
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    HYUFD said:

    Looks like a Biden v Warren nomination battle then as of this morning

    Yes get your money on that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    As part of the continuing Apollo anniversary celebration...

    The Apollo Fecal Collection Bag
    https://jalopnik.com/i-took-a-dump-the-same-way-the-apollo-astronauts-did-an-1836637152
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    edited August 2019
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    He that is without sin, cast the first stone!
    We don't want people throwing stones.

    Some sandpaper while Warner is fielding down at third man would be quite funny, however.

    A nasty bully who dished it out for years but doesn't like it when his crimes are thrown back at him.
    An alternative view is one of the most exciting opening batsmen in the world today, hopefully matched in this series by Jason Roy. I find this going on about the ball tampering tedious. Teams have done this since time immemorial and they have served their time.

    I am expecting a close series with a lot of results. Both teams have much better bowling attacks than batsmen. 3-4 days tests would not surprise me at all.
    Your alternative view is not alternative, he can be both. Personally I find people using 'others did it too' as an excuse for poor behaviour pretty tedious, as with the 'served their time' whinge. Yes they have which is why they are back. Doesnt mean they can complain when people bring it up, and its tedious that people whinge on their behalf about it.

    I look forward to him and Smith being back, great players we deserve to see. But the moaning at the reception they'll get is incredibly tiresome.

    Perhaps follow their lead and let their batting do the talking rather than unconvincing moralising .
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    ydoethur said:

    Labour stay at homes will surely be another big factor. They are very good news for Johnson.

    Yes, as I've said before, the next election may be decided by who can get most of their voters out.

    At the moment, the Tories are winning that battle, but you feel they are one mighty cock-up away from losing the advantage.

    It's as well they've got a leader of tact, judgement, skill and experience to make sure that doesn't...ah.
    The "swing voters" as far as turnout is concerned are Cummings's lost three million, who turned out in 2016 but don't normally bother. It looks unlikely from the results that very many of them turned out for the local or Euro elections.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    He that is without sin, cast the first stone!
    We don't want people throwing stones.

    Some sandpaper while Warner is fielding down at third man would be quite funny, however.

    A nasty bully who dished it out for years but doesn't like it when his crimes are thrown back at him.
    An alternative view is one of the most exciting opening batsmen in the world today, hopefully matched in this series by Jason Roy. I find this going on about the ball tampering tedious. Teams have done this since time immemorial and they have served their time.

    I am expecting a close series with a lot of results. Both teams have much better bowling attacks than batsmen. 3-4 days tests would not surprise me at all.
    I wouldn't have got quite so worked up about ball-tampering if he had done it himself. After all, Mike Atherton and Faf du Plessis both had, ummm, interesting approaches to ball shining. But getting a nervous young player like Bancroft, who when he played for Gloucestershire obviously always felt very insecure, to do it and then lying repeatedly about it was more than a bit off.

    Also, the fact he is so gratuitously unpleasant to everybody and than can't take criticism of himself isn't impressive.
    Bancroft was in a similar position to Mohammed Amir, of course. I thought, from what I had read that Warner had calmed down a lot of late, since becoming a father. And under his wife's influence.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
    At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.

    The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
    It would be nice if someone could come up with a church without God. A place where you can get together with your neighbours, mobilise to help others, be told some uplifting stuff and sing a load of great songs, without being told you're better than other people, or that the world was made in a way clearly rendered implausible by modern science, or that some people were born wrong.
    It’s called the Church of England.

    Slightly more seriously, that’s not too far from modern Quakerism, but obviously they don’t have the great songs.
    Yes it did occur to me that the CofE is a bit like what I described. We have a very nice local church with a wonderful vicar. I would love to go, I even reckon Jesus was a cracking bloke who talked a lot of sense. I love a good nativity play and always choke up a bit singing some of the top quality carols at Christmas time. I just don't believe in God at all.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited August 2019
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    I am not surprised!
    This is the 21st century not the 1950s, yes we can still have the happily married and loyal to their first love PM as the ideal but in reality many now divorce, have live in partners, children out of wedlock etc and Boris' situation is no difficult to millions of others
    But the fact that the matter is being raised at all rather suggests that many voters do not buy into such morality - and ,in particular, expect a better example from a PM.
    In 1857 a Conservative agent ran up to Disraeli in great excitement. 'Mr Disraeli, glorious news! I have proof that Lord Palmerston has a mistress.'

    'Keep quiet, you fool!' snapped Disraeli. 'If that gets out, he'll sweep the country.'

    And he did...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.

    If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.

    If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.

    If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.

    As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.

    All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.

    In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
    I think Labour's Brexit policy is right for government and I wouldn't like to see it change to "We'll try to negotiate a better deal and then we promise to campaign against it", which is just daft. But it's poor for a by-election when only the motivated turn out, and not great for a GE. I expect Labour to drop to 4% or so, but I don't think that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).
    In that case it is between you and Corbyn as to who turns the lights out.

    In what has become a binary choice, second vote or no deal, fence sitters will be blown to kingdom come.

    I cannot see any deal which will satisfy the majority from either side now. Any deal will be both too Brexity, or not Brexity enough.
    Labour's policy is a second vote.
    A second vote where we actually know what the options are. Under the LDs plan, what happens if we vote Leave again?
    We leave, but I expect LD policy to remain pro-EU. Any future referendum would surely be made binding so the people are actually making the decision.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    If so, why would they vote for the Liberal Democrats who are even more liberal in these matters?
    Given some of the reaction of Lib Dems on here this morning, perhaps they aren't all that liberal...
  • I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The candidate to back at the moment in my view is Bernie Sanders. He's got the money, he's got the support - he's in for the duration again. His price will shorten at some point.

    This post comes to you from someone who was an early strong backer of Pete Buttigieg and who spent the month of May extolling the price of Elizabeth Warren.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    If so, why would they vote for the Liberal Democrats who are even more liberal in these matters?
    Given some of the reaction of Lib Dems on here this morning, perhaps they aren't all that liberal...
    The issue with Boris's personal life isn't so much morality as honesty. It is the trail of false and broken promises and deception that litter his private life which make him unsuitable for office, not whether or not he is married to his partner.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    He that is without sin, cast the first stone!
    We don't want people throwing stones.

    Some sandpaper while Warner is fielding down at third man would be quite funny, however.

    A nasty bully who dished it out for years but doesn't like it when his crimes are thrown back at him.
    An alternative view is one of the most exciting opening batsmen in the world today, hopefully matched in this series by Jason Roy. I find this going on about the ball tampering tedious. Teams have done this since time immemorial and they have served their time.

    I am expecting a close series with a lot of results. Both teams have much better bowling attacks than batsmen. 3-4 days tests would not surprise me at all.
    Your alternative view is not alternative, he can be both. Personally I find people using 'others did it too' as an excuse for poor behaviour pretty tedious, as with the 'served their time' whinge. Yes they have which is why they are back. Doesnt mean they can complain when people bring it up, and its tedious that people whinge on their behalf about it.

    I look forward to him and Smith being back, great players we deserve to see. But the moaning at the reception they'll get is incredibly tiresome.

    Perhaps follow their lead and let their batting do the talking rather than unconvincing moralising .
    I am not moralising or excusing what they did. I am just a lot more interested in the cricket than all this nonsense which will have absolutely zero impact. Thankfully the real thing starts today and all this talking ends. I can't wait.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Tsar Alexander II famously cheated on his wife with divers members of the royal ballet company, as well as fathering three children on a princess.

    Hence the one comment all historians make in favour of Tsar Nicholas II - 'he was a good husband.'
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.

    If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.

    If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.

    If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.

    As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.

    All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.

    In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
    I think Labour's Brexit policy is right for government and I wouldn't like to see it change to "We'll try to negotiate a better deal and then we promise to campaign against it", which is just daft. But it's poor for that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).
    In that case it is between you and Corbyn as to who turns the lights out.

    In what has become a binary choice, second vote or no deal, fence sitters will be blown to kingdom come.

    I cannot see any deal which will satisfy the majority from either side now. Any deal will be both too Brexity, or not Brexity enough.
    Labour's policy is a second vote.
    A second vote where we actually know what the options are. Under the LDs plan, what happens if we vote Leave again?
    We leave, but I expect LD policy to remain pro-EU. Any future referendum would surely be made binding so the people are actually making the decision.
    Leave how? With the PD unchanged?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Scott_P said:
    Who on Earth changes money at an airport, unless they want to make a point about being ripped off?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    If so, why would they vote for the Liberal Democrats who are even more liberal in these matters?
    Given some of the reaction of Lib Dems on here this morning, perhaps they aren't all that liberal...
    The issue with Boris's personal life isn't so much morality as honesty. It is the trail of false and broken promises and deception that litter his private life which make him unsuitable for office, not whether or not he is married to his partner.
    He is polling less well with woman than men. There must be reasons. One is I suspect that they can smell a cad.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    I’m all for second chances but the crime didn’t seem to fit the punishment. We’ve all heard of the boiled sweet to help shine the ball, and throwing on the bounce to the keeper to deteriorate the ball, but both those seem to be an accepted grey area. Taking sandpaper onto the field of play for the express purpose of quickly changing the condition is very underhand. If it had been English players I am not sure they would have been fast tracked back into the team.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
    At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.

    The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
    It would be nice if someone could come up with a church without God. A place where you can get together with your neighbours, mobilise to help others, be told some uplifting stuff and sing a load of great songs, without being told you're better than other people, or that the world was made in a way clearly rendered implausible by modern science, or that some people were born wrong.
    It’s called the Church of England.

    Slightly more seriously, that’s not too far from modern Quakerism, but obviously they don’t have the great songs.
    Yes it did occur to me that the CofE is a bit like what I described. We have a very nice local church with a wonderful vicar. I would love to go, I even reckon Jesus was a cracking bloke who talked a lot of sense. I love a good nativity play and always choke up a bit singing some of the top quality carols at Christmas time. I just don't believe in God at all.
    I love Tim Minchen's song Drinking white wine in the sun. It sums it up perfectly for me. There is a delicious sentimentality and community about religion, especially around Christmas, that can be enjoyed even for those "barely religious".
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    He that is without sin, cast the first stone!
    We don't want people throwing stones.

    Some sandpaper while Warner is fielding down at third man would be quite funny, however.

    A nasty bully who dished it out for years but doesn't like it when his crimes are thrown back at him.
    An alternative view is one of the most exciting opening batsmen in the world today, hopefully matched in this series by Jason Roy. I find this going on about the ball tampering tedious. Teams have done this since time immemorial and they have served their time.

    I am expecting a close series with a lot of results. Both teams have much better bowling attacks than batsmen. 3-4 days tests would not surprise me at all.
    Agree they got found out, deserved punishment but it was overdone, a lot of virtue signalling denied the players a fair outcome. Last time 2 of the games didn't get to halfway. Can't see SKY wanting that again so the pitches may be less grassy than Strauss ordered in general. If the weather is decent we should get results in all games and I think home advantage is key. 4-1 England is my bet.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    I’m all for second chances but the crime didn’t seem to fit the punishment. We’ve all heard of the boiled sweet to help shine the ball, and throwing on the bounce to the keeper to deteriorate the ball, but both those seem to be an accepted grey area. Taking sandpaper onto the field of play for the express purpose of quickly changing the condition is very underhand. If it had been English players I am not sure they would have been fast tracked back into the team.
    Du Plessis was banned for a match for using a mint to shine the ball.

    I think they would have got off with a two or three match ban if they hadn't lied to first the umpires, then the media and finally CA about what they were doing.

    And I don't think Warner would have been so singled out (even allowing for his unpopularity) had he not been manipulating others within the team to do his dirty work for him.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    If so, why would they vote for the Liberal Democrats who are even more liberal in these matters?
    Given some of the reaction of Lib Dems on here this morning, perhaps they aren't all that liberal...
    The issue with Boris's personal life isn't so much morality as honesty. It is the trail of false and broken promises and deception that litter his private life which make him unsuitable for office, not whether or not he is married to his partner.
    Quite. See also Mr SO!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.

    If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.

    If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.

    If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.

    As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.

    All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.

    In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
    I think Labour's Brexit policy is right for government and I wouldn't like to see it change to "We'll try to negotiate a better deal and then we promise to campaign against it", which is just daft. But it's poor for a by-election when only the motivated turn out, and not great for a GE. I expect Labour to drop to 4% or so, but I don't think that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).
    In that case it is between you and Corbyn as to who turns the lights out.

    In what has become a binary choice, second vote or no deal, fence sitters will be blown to kingdom come.

    I cannot see any deal which will satisfy the majority from either side now. Any deal will be both too Brexity, or not Brexity enough.
    Labour's policy is a second vote.
    Thornberry in Aùstralia yesterday seems unconvinced.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    If so, why would they vote for the Liberal Democrats who are even more liberal in these matters?
    Given some of the reaction of Lib Dems on here this morning, perhaps they aren't all that liberal...
    The issue with Boris's personal life isn't so much morality as honesty. It is the trail of false and broken promises and deception that litter his private life which make him unsuitable for office, not whether or not he is married to his partner.
    He is polling less well with woman than men. There must be reasons. One is I suspect that they can smell a cad.
    Didn't one of his female colleagues say something like the old NSiT?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.

    If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.

    If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.

    If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.

    As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.

    All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.

    In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
    I think Labour's Brexit policy is right for government and I wouldn't like to see it change to "We'll try to negotiate a better deal and then we promise to campaign against it", which is just daft. But it's poor for a by-election when only the motivated turn out, and not great for a GE. I expect Labour to drop to 4% or so, but I don't think that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).
    In that case it is between you and Corbyn as to who turns the lights out.

    In what has become a binary choice, second vote or no deal, fence sitters will be blown to kingdom come.

    I cannot see any deal which will satisfy the majority from either side now. Any deal will be both too Brexity, or not Brexity enough.
    Labour's policy is a second vote.
    Thornberry in Aùstralia yesterday seems unconvinced.
    Oh, I think that's unfair. They have agreed to a second vote, just not what the vote should be for.
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    I’m all for second chances but the crime didn’t seem to fit the punishment. We’ve all heard of the boiled sweet to help shine the ball, and throwing on the bounce to the keeper to deteriorate the ball, but both those seem to be an accepted grey area. Taking sandpaper onto the field of play for the express purpose of quickly changing the condition is very underhand. If it had been English players I am not sure they would have been fast tracked back into the team.
    If they were such key players I am sure they would have been. Results when they were out showed how key they are.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Does it make me think less of him as a man? Undoubtedly. Does it make him less trustworthy? Is that even possible, I mean, really. Will it influence my vote? Absolutely no chance. I think that the vast majority are much more interested in how he does the day job and that is problematic enough.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    I am not surprised!
    This is the 21st century not the 1950s, yes we can still have the happily married and loyal to their first love PM as the ideal but in reality many now divorce, have live in partners, children out of wedlock etc and Boris' situation is no difficult to millions of others
    But the fact that the matter is being raised at all rather suggests that many voters do not buy into such morality - and ,in particular, expect a better example from a PM.
    It just highlights the state of our politicians nowadays, lower than rattlesnakes and unprincipled lowlifes
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.

    If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.

    If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.

    If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.

    As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.

    All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.

    In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
    daft. But it's poor for that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).
    In that case it is between you and Corbyn as to who turns the lights out.

    In what has become a binary choice, second vote or no deal, fence sitters will be blown to kingdom come.

    I cannot see any deal which will satisfy the majority from either side now. Any deal will be both too Brexity, or not Brexity enough.
    Labour's policy is a second vote.
    A second vote where we actually know what the options are. Under the LDs plan, what happens if we vote Leave again?
    We leave, but I expect LD policy to remain pro-EU. Any future referendum would surely be made binding so the people are actually making the decision.
    Leave how? With the PD unchanged?
    However the leave proposition in this hypothetical referendum might direct.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited August 2019
    DavidL said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Does it make me think less of him as a man? Undoubtedly. Does it make him less trustworthy? Is that even possible, I mean, really. Will it influence my vote? Absolutely no chance. I think that the vast majority are much more interested in how he does the day job and that is problematic enough.
    Yes. I think, as with Palmerston or Eden or Wilson, this would be much less of an issue if it wasn't part of the wider problem that he's treacherous, dishonest, self-indulgent and incompetent.

    The reason Lloyd George's infidelities eventually became an issue is because they were linked to his corruption and greed for power. On their own, they might have been brushed under the carpet, as Asquith's were.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Thornberry in Aùstralia yesterday seems unconvinced.

    Oz can keep her and the Ashes if they win ..... every cloud etc ....

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    I am not surprised!
    This is the 21st century not the 1950s, yes we can still have the happily married and loyal to their first love PM as the ideal but in reality many now divorce, have live in partners, children out of wedlock etc and Boris' situation is no difficult to millions of others
    But the fact that the matter is being raised at all rather suggests that many voters do not buy into such morality - and ,in particular, expect a better example from a PM.
    In 1857 a Conservative agent ran up to Disraeli in great excitement. 'Mr Disraeli, glorious news! I have proof that Lord Palmerston has a mistress.'

    'Keep quiet, you fool!' snapped Disraeli. 'If that gets out, he'll sweep the country.'

    And he did...
    I recall the music master at the Grammar School I had left a year earlier , having to resign his position in 1974 because he had impregnated the music mistress from the neighbouring Girls' Grammar School. He was already married - though not happily.
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    I’m all for second chances but the crime didn’t seem to fit the punishment. We’ve all heard of the boiled sweet to help shine the ball, and throwing on the bounce to the keeper to deteriorate the ball, but both those seem to be an accepted grey area. Taking sandpaper onto the field of play for the express purpose of quickly changing the condition is very underhand. If it had been English players I am not sure they would have been fast tracked back into the team.
    Du Plessis was banned for a match for using a mint to shine the ball.

    I think they would have got off with a two or three match ban if they hadn't lied to first the umpires, then the media and finally CA about what they were doing.

    And I don't think Warner would have been so singled out (even allowing for his unpopularity) had he not been manipulating others within the team to do his dirty work for him.
    Come off it Warner was thrown under the bus. The whole team knew what was going on, impossible the bowlers wouldn't. I think they got the punishment on Bancroft right, to give the others more unfair. Bancroft was an international player in his mid twenties, he didn't have to do what he did. He was no callow kid.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    Cricket is dull af but I love the fact that you can cheat at it using confectionery
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Does it make me think less of him as a man? Undoubtedly. Does it make him less trustworthy? Is that even possible, I mean, really. Will it influence my vote? Absolutely no chance. I think that the vast majority are much more interested in how he does the day job and that is problematic enough.
    Yes. I think, as with Palmerston or Eden or Wilson, this would be much less of an issue if it wasn't part of the wider problem that he's treacherous, dishonest, self-indulgent and incompetent.

    The reason Lloyd George's infidelities eventually became an issue is because they were linked to his corruption and greed for power. On their own, they might have been brushed under the carpet, as Asquith's were.
    Asquith's may well have been limited to his mind - rather than physically consummated!
  • llefllef Posts: 300

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
    At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.

    The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
    It would be nice if someone could come up with a church without God. A place where you can get together with your neighbours, mobilise to help others, be told some uplifting stuff and sing a load of great songs, without being told you're better than other people, or that the world was made in a way clearly rendered implausible by modern science, or that some people were born wrong.
    It’s called the Church of England.

    Slightly more seriously, that’s not too far from modern Quakerism, but obviously they don’t have the great songs.
    Yes it did occur to me that the CofE is a bit like what I described. We have a very nice local church with a wonderful vicar. I would love to go, I even reckon Jesus was a cracking bloke who talked a lot of sense. I love a good nativity play and always choke up a bit singing some of the top quality carols at Christmas time. I just don't believe in God at all.
    According to this report, there are 20k members of the Presybterian church in wales, down from 60k in 2000.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/cymrufyw/48326460

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    .

    All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.

    In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
    I think Labour's Brexit policy is right for government and I wouldn't like to see it change to "We'll try to negotiate a better deal and then we promise to campaign against it", which is just daft. But it's poor for a by-election when only the motivated turn out, and not great for a GE. I expect Labour to drop to 4% or so, but I don't think that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).
    In that case it is between you and Corbyn as to who turns the lights out.

    In what has become a binary choice, second vote or no deal, fence sitters will be blown to kingdom come.

    I cannot see any deal which will satisfy the majority from either side now. Any deal will be both too Brexity, or not Brexity enough.
    Labour's policy is a second vote.
    Thornberry in Aùstralia yesterday seems unconvinced.
    Oh, I think that's unfair. They have agreed to a second vote, just not what the vote should be for.
    As I understand it, if Labour get into power they’ll discard the Evil Tory Brexit and renegotiate Soft Fluffy Labour Brexit, which they’ll then put to a referendum, which most of their party will campaign against. Have I got that right?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Does it make me think less of him as a man? Undoubtedly. Does it make him less trustworthy? Is that even possible, I mean, really. Will it influence my vote? Absolutely no chance. I think that the vast majority are much more interested in how he does the day job and that is problematic enough.
    Yes. I think, as with Palmerston or Eden or Wilson, this would be much less of an issue if it wasn't part of the wider problem that he's treacherous, dishonest, self-indulgent and incompetent.

    The reason Lloyd George's infidelities eventually became an issue is because they were linked to his corruption and greed for power. On their own, they might have been brushed under the carpet, as Asquith's were.
    I think that pretty much sums it up. He just might surprise us on the competence thing, There is a ruthlessness in him which not only drives his self indulgence and narcissism but also means he tends to get what he wants.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Does it make me think less of him as a man? Undoubtedly. Does it make him less trustworthy? Is that even possible, I mean, really. Will it influence my vote? Absolutely no chance. I think that the vast majority are much more interested in how he does the day job and that is problematic enough.
    Yes. I think, as with Palmerston or Eden or Wilson, this would be much less of an issue if it wasn't part of the wider problem that he's treacherous, dishonest, self-indulgent and incompetent.

    The reason Lloyd George's infidelities eventually became an issue is because they were linked to his corruption and greed for power. On their own, they might have been brushed under the carpet, as Asquith's were.
    Asquith's may well have been limited to his mind - rather than physically consummated!
    It's possible. Nobody seems to be very sure either way.

    Very useful for historians though. If it wasn't for his mad passion for his daughter's best friend, we wouldn't have known anything about the conversations in his cabinet meetings.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Cricket is dull af but I love the fact that you can cheat at it using confectionery

    It is quite sweet.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    macisback said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    I’m all for second chances but the crime didn’t seem to fit the punishment. We’ve all heard of the boiled sweet to help shine the ball, and throwing on the bounce to the keeper to deteriorate the ball, but both those seem to be an accepted grey area. Taking sandpaper onto the field of play for the express purpose of quickly changing the condition is very underhand. If it had been English players I am not sure they would have been fast tracked back into the team.
    If they were such key players I am sure they would have been. Results when they were out showed how key they are.
    They weren’t “fast-tracked back”. They were banned for a year and picked when available for selection. That’s not fast-tracking, it’s serving the time.

    Anyway if I was a spectator I would hate the boo-ing. It’s not a question of whether they “deserve it” or not, it would just spoil my personal enjoyment of the event. Cricket is best enjoyed when conducted in a good spirit, by players and spectators alike. I want England to win, of course, and would revel in the outcome, but if Australia win fair and square in a keenly competitive contest then I could “enjoy” that as well. The pinnacle of sport is also better when all sides can field their best teams.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Cricket is dull af but I love the fact that you can cheat at it using confectionery

    Speculation that Mike Gatting was approached is risible. Anyone seriously thinking that Gatting would pass up the opportunity to scoff a shed load of chocolate before a bowler had the opportunity should be exiled to ConHome for the entire Ashes series.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    llef said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
    At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.

    The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
    It would be nice if someone could come up with a church without God. A place where you can get together with your neighbours, mobilise to help others, be told some uplifting stuff and sing a load of great songs, without being told you're better than other people, or that the world was made in a way clearly rendered implausible by modern science, or that some people were born wrong.
    It’s called the Church of England.

    Slightly more seriously, that’s not too far from modern Quakerism, but obviously they don’t have the great songs.
    Yes it did occur to me that the CofE is a bit like what I described. We have a very nice local church with a wonderful vicar. I would love to go, I even reckon Jesus was a cracking bloke who talked a lot of sense. I love a good nativity play and always choke up a bit singing some of the top quality carols at Christmas time. I just don't believe in God at all.
    According to this report, there are 20k members of the Presybterian church in wales, down from 60k in 2000.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/cymrufyw/48326460

    Also divided among 600 chapels. Probably about half of the members go to less than a fifth of the chapels. Where does that leave the others?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    alex. said:

    macisback said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    I’m all for second chances but the crime didn’t seem to fit the punishment. We’ve all heard of the boiled sweet to help shine the ball, and throwing on the bounce to the keeper to deteriorate the ball, but both those seem to be an accepted grey area. Taking sandpaper onto the field of play for the express purpose of quickly changing the condition is very underhand. If it had been English players I am not sure they would have been fast tracked back into the team.
    If they were such key players I am sure they would have been. Results when they were out showed how key they are.
    They weren’t “fast-tracked back”. They were banned for a year and picked when available for selection. That’s not fast-tracking, it’s serving the time.

    Anyway if I was a spectator I would hate the boo-ing. It’s not a question of whether they “deserve it” or not, it would just spoil my personal enjoyment of the event. Cricket is best enjoyed when conducted in a good spirit, by players and spectators alike. I want England to win, of course, and would revel in the outcome, but if Australia win fair and square in a keenly competitive contest then I could “enjoy” that as well. The pinnacle of sport is also better when all sides can field their best teams.

    Exactly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    JackW said:

    Cricket is dull af but I love the fact that you can cheat at it using confectionery

    Speculation that Mike Gatting was approached is risible. Anyone seriously thinking that Gatting would pass up the opportunity to scoff a shed load of chocolate before a bowler had the opportunity should be exiled to ConHome for the entire Ashes series.
    Good customer of yours I take it, eh Jack?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    alex. said:

    macisback said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    I’m all for second chances but the crime didn’t seem to fit the punishment. We’ve all heard of the boiled sweet to help shine the ball, and throwing on the bounce to the keeper to deteriorate the ball, but both those seem to be an accepted grey area. Taking sandpaper onto the field of play for the express purpose of quickly changing the condition is very underhand. If it had been English players I am not sure they would have been fast tracked back into the team.
    If they were such key players I am sure they would have been. Results when they were out showed how key they are.
    They weren’t “fast-tracked back”. They were banned for a year and picked when available for selection. That’s not fast-tracking, it’s serving the time.

    Anyway if I was a spectator I would hate the boo-ing. It’s not a question of whether they “deserve it” or not, it would just spoil my personal enjoyment of the event. Cricket is best enjoyed when conducted in a good spirit, by players and spectators alike. I want England to win, of course, and would revel in the outcome, but if Australia win fair and square in a keenly competitive contest then I could “enjoy” that as well. The pinnacle of sport is also better when all sides can field their best teams.

    Nah, the great thing about the Ashes is watching the Aussies getting seven shades of shit thrashed out of them.

    That is why the greatest date in English cricketing history was not the World Cup Final but August 6th 2015.

    Also a red letter day when I began my career as England's strike bowler by saying Alistair Cook was mad to put the Aussies in.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    I’m all for second chances but the crime didn’t seem to fit the punishment. We’ve all heard of the boiled sweet to help shine the ball, and throwing on the bounce to the keeper to deteriorate the ball, but both those seem to be an accepted grey area. Taking sandpaper onto the field of play for the express purpose of quickly changing the condition is very underhand. If it had been English players I am not sure they would have been fast tracked back into the team.
    Du Plessis was banned for a match for using a mint to shine the ball.

    I think they would have got off with a two or three match ban if they hadn't lied to first the umpires, then the media and finally CA about what they were doing.

    And I don't think Warner would have been so singled out (even allowing for his unpopularity) had he not been manipulating others within the team to do his dirty work for him.
    There have been all sorts of ways to change the condition of the ball from pitch dirt of atherton to Afrdi’s teeth. Most involve something you would have on the field of play, but are against the rules and spirit of the game but seem unlikely to deteriorate or maintain the ball significantly differently or quickly. Sandpapering the ball is likely to quickly deteriorate the ball and with a bowler like Starc suddenly moving the ball differently that would be a significant playing advantage. On top of that you had the conspiracy. It is only my opinion but I think it was significantly worse and they are lucky still to be playing international cricket. If Australia had.some other decent batsman they may have struggled.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Boris’s behaviour is par for the course. The mystery is why Carrie should want to shack up with him, knowing his history of serial unfaithfulness to every woman he has ever been with.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    .

    All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.

    In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
    I think Labour's Brexit policy is right for government and I wouldn't like to see it change to "We'll try to negotiate a better deal and then we promise to campaign against it", which is just daft. But it's poor for a by-election when only the motivated turn out, and not great for a GE. I expect Labour to drop to 4% or so, but I don't think that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).
    In that case it is between you and Corbyn as to who turns the lights out.

    In what has become a binary choice, second vote or no deal, fence sitters will be blown to kingdom come.

    I cannot see any deal which will satisfy the majority from either side now. Any deal will be both too Brexity, or not Brexity enough.
    Labour's policy is a second vote.
    Thornberry in Aùstralia yesterday seems unconvinced.
    Oh, I think that's unfair. They have agreed to a second vote, just not what the vote should be for.
    As I understand it, if Labour get into power they’ll discard the Evil Tory Brexit and renegotiate Soft Fluffy Labour Brexit, which they’ll then put to a referendum, which most of their party will campaign against. Have I got that right?
    They'll be saying.. 'look we got a great brilliant deal! Please now vote against it.....'
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    If so, why would they vote for the Liberal Democrats who are even more liberal in these matters?
    Given some of the reaction of Lib Dems on here this morning, perhaps they aren't all that liberal...
    I think you are missing the point completely. It's not a morality issue it's the fact that his private life is indicative of his character - in short he's a liar and untrustworthy and his personal life has shown that to be the case repeatedly. He can't even honestly answer a question about how many children he has. To most people that is not normal behaviour
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    Cyclefree said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Boris’s behaviour is par for the course. The mystery is why Carrie should want to shack up with him, knowing his history of serial unfaithfulness to every woman he has ever been with.
    'What first attracted you to the multimillionaire UK PM Carrie?'
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    malcolmg said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    I am not surprised!
    This is the 21st century not the 1950s, yes we can still have the happily married and loyal to their first love PM as the ideal but in reality many now divorce, have live in partners, children out of wedlock etc and Boris' situation is no difficult to millions of others
    But the fact that the matter is being raised at all rather suggests that many voters do not buy into such morality - and ,in particular, expect a better example from a PM.
    It just highlights the state of our politicians nowadays, lower than rattlesnakes and unprincipled lowlifes
    "a girl needs a gun these days
    Hey on account of all the rattlesnakes"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Cyclefree said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Boris’s behaviour is par for the course. The mystery is why Carrie should want to shack up with him, knowing his history of serial unfaithfulness to every woman he has ever been with.
    I guess people always believe that they are the one who can tame/change someone.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,893
    edited August 2019

    Biden and Harris both look unconvincing for different reasons. Bernie Sanders surely established his ceiling against Hillary last time, so looks booked for another podium finish but not the chequered flay. Elizabeth Warren: oh, I don't know.

    There is a month off now, isn't there, and then the no-hopers are dropped?

    Even the Beeb called out Harris as a loser.

    How much are her odds simply driven by the belief she’s a female Obama?
    All the odds are driven to a larger extent than they should have been at this point by the 1st debate. The liberal media (The conservative media doens't care) latched onto Harris because they're desperate for a horse race when the truth is at this point Biden is a way out in front. Biden also suffered from some none response bias after his, even I'll admit this, poor performance in the first debate. Harris got the flavour of the month poll respondents who react positively to whoever is on the TV.

    Harris is not out the race but from what I can pick up her campaign infrastructure is not as strong as Warren or Sanders, who as Meeks points out is good value as he is one of those that could get past Biden - Harris with ~ 11% in the polls and an average debate, lack of infrastructure she should be lower than the ~ 25% chance she is still shown as having. I'll admit as a Harris layer I'm happy that she flopped.

    Tulsi Gabbard and Andrew Yang are looking like potential Ron and Rand Paul figures - one of them might figure prominently but they have a terrible true chance.

    Cory Booker of the longer shots is someone I've got onside and at 500-1000 I've also popped a couple of quid on Williamson and Delaney. Their true odds are probably ~ 250-500-1 maybe.

    Buttigieg, well he's a good candidate but failing to poll well - Meeks reckons he has potential though so I'd rather keep him onside which is well possible after Harris' unwarranted crash to ~ 3.0 (My average lay is 4.1 or so on her). Bear in mind his black voter numbers are awful though.
    My early Klobuchar bet looks dead though could resurrect from the ashes I suppose...

    Here's my book anyway, all are tilted toward the Democrats right now.
    Value at Evens vs Trump

    Biden win vs Trump +603
    Sanders win vs Trump +678
    E Warren win vs Trump +511
    Buttigieg win vs Trump +150
    Harris win vs Trump -526
    Yang win vs Trump -470
    Gabbard win vs Trump -352
    Booker win vs Trump +366
    Field Dem win vs Trump +127 (Castro I suppose)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    Cricket is dull af but I love the fact that you can cheat at it using confectionery

    Speculation that Mike Gatting was approached is risible. Anyone seriously thinking that Gatting would pass up the opportunity to scoff a shed load of chocolate before a bowler had the opportunity should be exiled to ConHome for the entire Ashes series.
    Good customer of yours I take it, eh Jack?
    Client records are of course confidential but we'd be stumped if regular customers left the wicket without a ton up of orders every season .... :innocent:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    The Tories still lead by 4% over Labour with women under Boris though yes that is well below the huge 16% lead the Boris led Tory Party has with men over Labour and the LDs in the latest Yougov

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/31/voting-intention-con-32-lab-22-lib-dem-19-brex-13-
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Cyclefree said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Boris’s behaviour is par for the course. The mystery is why Carrie should want to shack up with him, knowing his history of serial unfaithfulness to every woman he has ever been with.
    Presumably he is charming and entertaining but that is really her call as a responsible adult, isn't it?

    Does this really change your vote? I had a chat with my 22 year old daughter, who has very strong views on relationships, and she was very hostile. I can't work out if this is indicative of a different response between the sexes (which has some support in the polling) or just a bit of dirt to be thrown at him by those who don't like his policies anyway.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    The candidate to back at the moment in my view is Bernie Sanders. He's got the money, he's got the support - he's in for the duration again. His price will shorten at some point.

    This post comes to you from someone who was an early strong backer of Pete Buttigieg and who spent the month of May extolling the price of Elizabeth Warren.

    Agreed.
    I don't think he has that much chance of the nomination, but he will have his moment.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    My wife literally refused to believe he was PM. I had to show her the Guardian web site to prove it. She has a very vague grasp of British politics and I think she categorises Boris as one of those talentless and mystifyingly enduring figures that occupy the fringes of British culture like Gary Wilmot.
  • ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
    At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.

    The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
    It would be nice if someone could come up with a church without God. A place where you can get together with your neighbours, mobilise to help others, be told some uplifting stuff and sing a load of great songs, without being told you're better than other people, or that the world was made in a way clearly rendered implausible by modern science, or that some people were born wrong.
    It’s called the Church of England.

    Slightly more seriously, that’s not too far from modern Quakerism, but obviously they don’t have the great songs.
    There are some groups trying that; Sunday Assembly is a big one. It's harder to make it work than it looks;

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/07/secular-churches-rethink-their-sales-pitch/594109/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    My wife literally refused to believe he was PM. I had to show her the Guardian web site to prove it. She has a very vague grasp of British politics and I think she categorises Boris as one of those talentless and mystifyingly enduring figures that occupy the fringes of British culture like Gary Wilmot.
    Your wife believes what she reads in the Guardian?

    Blimey.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    My wife literally refused to believe he was PM. I had to show her the Guardian web site to prove it. She has a very vague grasp of British politics and I think she categorises Boris as one of those talentless and mystifyingly enduring figures that occupy the fringes of British culture like Gary Wilmot.
    That is incredibly unfair on Gary Wilmot, who is anything but talentless (according to his Wikipedia page he has led quite an inspirational life in fact). You should update your wife on this issue. She is right about the PM though. He is a twat.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Cyclefree said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Boris’s behaviour is par for the course. The mystery is why Carrie should want to shack up with him, knowing his history of serial unfaithfulness to every woman he has ever been with.
    I’ve never understood the man marrying the mistress, from the point of view of the mistress. Surely the one thing she knows about him, is that he’s unfaithful to a woman he married?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    My wife literally refused to believe he was PM. I had to show her the Guardian web site to prove it. She has a very vague grasp of British politics and I think she categorises Boris as one of those talentless and mystifyingly enduring figures that occupy the fringes of British culture like Gary Wilmot.
    That is incredibly unfair on Gary Wilmot, who is anything but talentless (according to his Wikipedia page he has led quite an inspirational life in fact). You should update your wife on this issue. She is right about the PM though. He is a twat.
    I can't help feeling your own post is incredibly unfair as well. What have twats done to deserve being compared to Johnson?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798

    Morning all,

    Off topic, but I thought George Clarke's programme last night on social housing and the start of his new campaign was excellent.

    The material about Vienna and social housing there (all classes, 1st class, low rent, even swimming pools, play areas etc) was really interesting.

    The minister, Brokenshire (departed a week before programme aired) came across as utterly useless, just wibberling about change being important and aware of the issues etc etc.

    Can Clarke do a Jamie Oliver on housing?

    Hopefully he'll do better than that.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited August 2019
    .n.......
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't

    like Gary Wilmot.
    I've never heard of him
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    edited August 2019
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Does it make me think less of him as a man? Undoubtedly. Does it make him less trustworthy? Is that even possible, I mean, really. Will it influence my vote? Absolutely no chance. I think that the vast majority are much more interested in how he does the day job and that is problematic enough.
    Yes. I think, as with Palmerston or Eden or Wilson, this would be much less of an issue if it wasn't part of the wider problem that he's treacherous, dishonest, self-indulgent and incompetent.

    The reason Lloyd George's infidelities eventually became an issue is because they were linked to his corruption and greed for power. On their own, they might have been brushed under the carpet, as Asquith's were.
    I think that pretty much sums it up. He just might surprise us on the competence thing, There is a ruthlessness in him which not only drives his self indulgence and narcissism but also means he tends to get what he wants.

    Very wealthy members of the establishment spend their entire lives getting what they want. They are in the immensely privileged position of playing a game - some you win, some you lose, but whatever happens it all turns up roses. See how Cameron, Osborne, Timothy, Blair, etc, have flourished since losing at politics. No wonder people are pig-sick of it all. It’s another reason why Brexit will solve nothing.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    Certainly LDs in B&R were taking comfort in still finding Tories coming over, even as Bozo gathers back in the BXP lot
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    Cyclefree said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Boris’s behaviour is par for the course. The mystery is why Carrie should want to shack up with him, knowing his history of serial unfaithfulness to every woman he has ever been with.
    I'd imagine making up* cardboard models of London buses and painting them would be like catnip for the ladies.

    *There are at least 2 ways of looking at 'making up' in this context.
  • Confirmation that Raab is a liar - and not a very good one ...

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49165836
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    IanB2 said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    Certainly LDs in B&R were taking comfort in still finding Tories coming over, even as Bozo gathers back in the BXP lot
    I hope so I will be really pleased if the LD take B & R!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    It’s why Labour need to ditch Corbyn ASAP. Many people don’t like Boris Johnson, but consider him by far the lesser of two evils.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Cyclefree said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Boris’s behaviour is par for the course. The mystery is why Carrie should want to shack up with him, knowing his history of serial unfaithfulness to every woman he has ever been with.
    Isn't he, erm, extremely large?

    But, yes, I concur.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited August 2019
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Boris’s behaviour is par for the course. The mystery is why Carrie should want to shack up with him, knowing his history of serial unfaithfulness to every woman he has ever been with.
    Presumably he is charming and entertaining but that is really her call as a responsible adult, isn't it?

    Does this really change your vote? I had a chat with my 22 year old daughter, who has very strong views on relationships, and she was very hostile. I can't work out if this is indicative of a different response between the sexes (which has some support in the polling) or just a bit of dirt to be thrown at him by those who don't like his policies anyway.
    It can also be seen as part of a pattern. As I suggested yesterday, it is a bit like Corbyn/Labour and antisemitism. A pattern with Boris, but also the Conservative Party generally.

    Boris: serial adulterer; his being locked out by Marina made the news (and probably there will be a video on youtube)
    Party: Elphicke and the other MP suspended over sexual assault allegations but then readmitted (sound familiar?)
    Party: Elphicke has now been charged with sexual assault of two women
    Party & Boris: drop investigation into Mark Field manhandling the protesting woman with the red dress
    Boris: row with Carrie Symonds to which the police were called
    Boris: Carrie won't move in (last week); oh, yes she will
    Boris: these days it probably does not help that she is half his age

    Any one tile in the mosaic (as with Labour antisemitism) might be removed but you can still see the pattern.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Cyclefree said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Boris’s behaviour is par for the course. The mystery is why Carrie should want to shack up with him, knowing his history of serial unfaithfulness to every woman he has ever been with.
    Isn't he, erm, extremely large?

    But, yes, I concur.
    Michael Gove was nicknamed Donkey, according to the new biography. He should have leaked that part instead of the cocaine story.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Sandpit said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    It’s why Labour need to ditch Corbyn ASAP. Many people don’t like Boris Johnson, but consider him by far the lesser of two evils.
    What I cannot understand about Corbyn is his stubbornness in carrying on and letting the Tories off the hook, when a dynamic fresh Labour leader could wipe the floor with Johnson. Someone else may not have the ideological purity of Corbyn. But they would have the power to make changes that would improve the lives of the many not the few...
  • Sandpit said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Boris’s behaviour is par for the course. The mystery is why Carrie should want to shack up with him, knowing his history of serial unfaithfulness to every woman he has ever been with.
    I’ve never understood the man marrying the mistress, from the point of view of the mistress. Surely the one thing she knows about him, is that he’s unfaithful to a woman he married?
    Presumably he sounds totally sincere in promising to be faithful this time. Like promising to eefindefin leave the EU on October 31.
  • Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    It is odd that the PM chooses as his catchphrase a description of a famous blunder:

    Forward, the Light Brigade!”
    Was there a man dismayed?
    Not though the soldier knew
    Someone had blundered.
    Theirs not to make reply,
    Theirs not to reason why,
    Theirs but to do and die.
    Into the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred.
    "Now, as the 150th anniversary of the infamous charge approaches, historians are revising their accounts of what every schoolchild knows was a famous military disaster.

    Writing in the October edition of BBC History magazine, a leading academic and author says the Light Brigade helped to lay the foundations for the future success of the British Army by establishing an ideal of heroic and "unthinking obedience", with lasting benefits.

    ..

    The charge occurred during the battle of Balaklava in the Crimean War, when 658 British cavalrymen, acting on a misinterpreted order, rode for more than a mile under heavy fire to attack Russian artillery positions, killed the gunners, then retreated, having lost 110 dead, 180 wounded or taken prisoner and 475 horses killed.

    Yet the charge helped swing the campaign in favour of the British. A few days later, 10,000 British troops held fast against 40,000 Russians at the battle of Inkerman. In the longer term, the habit of obeying orders - which had not been universal in earlier periods - indicated a new ethos of professionalism in the Army."

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/charge-of-the-light-brigade-was-a-military-success-545886.html
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Cyclefree said:


    Boris’s behaviour is par for the course. The mystery is why Carrie should want to shack up with him, knowing his history of serial unfaithfulness to every woman he has ever been with.


    Because he's rich and powerful. Do you think she'd give the fat pig a second glance if he was on benefits and lived in a caravan in Grimsby?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    It is odd that the PM chooses as his catchphrase a description of a famous blunder:

    Forward, the Light Brigade!”
    Was there a man dismayed?
    Not though the soldier knew
    Someone had blundered.
    Theirs not to make reply,
    Theirs not to reason why,
    Theirs but to do and die.
    Into the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred.
    "Now, as the 150th anniversary of the infamous charge approaches, historians are revising their accounts of what every schoolchild knows was a famous military disaster.

    Writing in the October edition of BBC History magazine, a leading academic and author says the Light Brigade helped to lay the foundations for the future success of the British Army by establishing an ideal of heroic and "unthinking obedience", with lasting benefits.

    Yep the sheer lunacy of the First World War. The most unparalleled piece of pointless carnage in human history.

    Academics have to point score, even when they haven't a leg left to stand on. It's the only way they can justify their existence.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Sandpit said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    It’s why Labour need to ditch Corbyn ASAP. Many people don’t like Boris Johnson, but consider him by far the lesser of two evils.
    What I cannot understand about Corbyn is his stubbornness in carrying on and letting the Tories off the hook, when a dynamic fresh Labour leader could wipe the floor with Johnson. Someone else may not have the ideological purity of Corbyn. But they would have the power to make changes that would improve the lives of the many not the few...
    In that case you do not understand Corbyn, and probably not what his beliefs, objectives and political imperitives are.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Sandpit said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    It’s why Labour need to ditch Corbyn ASAP. Many people don’t like Boris Johnson, but consider him by far the lesser of two evils.
    What I cannot understand about Corbyn is his stubbornness in carrying on and letting the Tories off the hook, when a dynamic fresh Labour leader could wipe the floor with Johnson. Someone else may not have the ideological purity of Corbyn. But they would have the power to make changes that would improve the lives of the many not the few...
    They dont have a dynamic fresh leader in waiting and, as is evident from NPs posts, both the members and the leadership want to hang onto the purported purity.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited August 2019


    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM!

    David Cameron's mum was right when she told Jeremy Corbyn to wear a suit, do up his tie and sing the national anthem. It worked for Corbyn, and even Boris seems to have visited his tailor recently. Look at Michael Foot's duffle coat for another demonstration that appearances matter.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Cyclefree said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Boris’s behaviour is par for the course. The mystery is why Carrie should want to shack up with him, knowing his history of serial unfaithfulness to every woman he has ever been with.
    Isn't he, erm, extremely large?

    But, yes, I concur.
    Michael Gove was nicknamed Donkey, according to the new biography. He should have leaked that part instead of the cocaine story.
    Kind-of makes sense. The pair of them are basically willy wavers.
  • Sandpit said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    It’s why Labour need to ditch Corbyn ASAP. Many people don’t like Boris Johnson, but consider him by far the lesser of two evils.
    What I cannot understand about Corbyn is his stubbornness in carrying on and letting the Tories off the hook, when a dynamic fresh Labour leader could wipe the floor with Johnson. Someone else may not have the ideological purity of Corbyn. But they would have the power to make changes that would improve the lives of the many not the few...

    Controlling the Labour party is the far left's priority. Defeating the Tories is a secondary concern.

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    philiph said:

    Sandpit said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    It’s why Labour need to ditch Corbyn ASAP. Many people don’t like Boris Johnson, but consider him by far the lesser of two evils.
    What I cannot understand about Corbyn is his stubbornness in carrying on and letting the Tories off the hook, when a dynamic fresh Labour leader could wipe the floor with Johnson. Someone else may not have the ideological purity of Corbyn. But they would have the power to make changes that would improve the lives of the many not the few...
    In that case you do not understand Corbyn, and probably not what his beliefs, objectives and political imperitives are.
    It is why I cannot vote for him or his party. I will just vote LD and hope for an even more hung parliament! If they cannot do anything it has to be better than them doing the wrong thing!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    Sandpit said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    It’s why Labour need to ditch Corbyn ASAP. Many people don’t like Boris Johnson, but consider him by far the lesser of two evils.
    I would agree with that sentiment. I will be voting LD rather than endorse Johnson and his band of nutters. However if Labour had a leader who was not as thick as pigshit and wanted to turn the UK into a banana republic, then I would even lend them my vote to punish the Conservative Party for becoming UKIP/BNP-lite
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 690
    Re; Boris and Carrie marrying. As Sir James Goldsmith said: "When you marry the mistress, it creates a vacancy."
This discussion has been closed.