politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden back as favourite for the nomination after Harris fails to follow on from her first debate sucess
There’ve been big movements in the WH2020 Democratic nomination betting following last night’s second part of the latest round of debates including Biden and Kamala Harris.
Biden and Harris both look unconvincing for different reasons. Bernie Sanders surely established his ceiling against Hillary last time, so looks booked for another podium finish but not the chequered flay. Elizabeth Warren: oh, I don't know.
There is a month off now, isn't there, and then the no-hopers are dropped?
This is like the recent Conservative leadership contest where none of the candidates looked like a prime minister but you knew one of them soon would be.
This is like the recent Conservative leadership contest where none of the candidates looked like a prime minister but you knew one of them soon would be.
A feeling we will all have on steroids come the next General Election.
This is like the recent Conservative leadership contest where none of the candidates looked like a prime minister but you knew one of them soon would be.
A feeling we will all have on steroids come the next General Election.
Although that is slightly different as one of the candidates is already PM.
This is like the recent Conservative leadership contest where none of the candidates looked like a prime minister but you knew one of them soon would be.
A feeling we will all have on steroids come the next General Election.
Although that is slightly different as one of the candidates is already PM.
Biden and Harris both look unconvincing for different reasons. Bernie Sanders surely established his ceiling against Hillary last time, so looks booked for another podium finish but not the chequered flay. Elizabeth Warren: oh, I don't know.
There is a month off now, isn't there, and then the no-hopers are dropped?
Even the Beeb called out Harris as a loser.
How much are her odds simply driven by the belief she’s a female Obama?
Probably selected because Boris has empathy for the AC⚡DC song of the same name.
She's making eyes At everything she meet It ain't it a crime When she make you pump heat She'll make you fly because that's her thing She'll make you dry Then you know you're broken in Who all need it, you Who all need it, yes you do You all breathe it We all need it Are you ready for a good time Then get ready for the night line Are you ready for a good time Then get ready for the night line Are you ready for a good time
Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other.
Closer to home I fully expect the Liberal Undemocrats to win today's by-election in Brecon. However will the LibDem vote (which can be taken to be a composition of LibDem + Green +Plaid exceed that of Tory + Brexit? If not then Boris can be hopeful of winning it back at the GE next Spring if he gets Brexit through by 31/10 or at a forced GE if the opposition parties secure a vote of no confidence.
Will Brecon mark the high point of the current LibDem resurgence? To me this is a shade of Crosby when Shirley Williams overhauled a stonking Tory majority to win her seat in 1981, only to lose it back to the Tories in 1983.
Clearly lots of you including our Honourable host will be having a late night/early morning awaiting the result but I am hoping to sleep through out. Finding out at breakfast tomorrow will be good enough for me.
By the way Undemocrats because the LibDems have shown they only like and accept votes if the votes go their way. They accepted a majority of 6,000 on a tiny turnout was enough to justify setting up the Welsh Assembly but refuse to accept that a majority of 1.4 million on the highest turnout vote in the UK in generations is sufficient to justify Brexit. Their new leader, the youthful and fragrant Jo Swinson made an utter fool of herself on the Scottish media last week trying to justify why there should be what is in effect a Revocation 2nd referendum on Brexit but not a 2nd referendum on Scottish Independence when at least our Wee Nippy Sweetie First Minister does have a democratic majority vote at and mandate from Holyrood to ask for one!
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
I am sure the morality issue is a genuine one with more socially conservative voters. Rightly so, Boris has a long history of disgraceful personal behaviour.
Biden and Harris both look unconvincing for different reasons. Bernie Sanders surely established his ceiling against Hillary last time, so looks booked for another podium finish but not the chequered flay. Elizabeth Warren: oh, I don't know.
There is a month off now, isn't there, and then the no-hopers are dropped?
Even the Beeb called out Harris as a loser.
How much are her odds simply driven by the belief she’s a female Obama?
Harris clearly has a big machine behind her, a lot of Clinton staff are running her campaign and there has even been talk the Obama's will back her. I just don't see her justifying the hype, Tulsi really took her down last night and her economic analysis is akin to the average BBC reporter. I think Warren is much more likely to trouble Trump in campaign, Harris looks out of her depth outside legal spheres, even there Tulsi took a huge look at her performance.
It is odd that the PM chooses as his catchphrase a description of a famous blunder:
Forward, the Light Brigade!” Was there a man dismayed? Not though the soldier knew Someone had blundered. Theirs not to make reply, Theirs not to reason why, Theirs but to do and die. Into the valley of Death Rode the six hundred.
Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other
I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.
What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other
I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.
Like they did with Hilary?? Sanders supporters sure rode in behind her then.
Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other
I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.
Divisions are part for the course at the primary stage.
Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other
I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.
Like they did with Hilary?? Sanders supporters sure rode in behind her then.
Yeah they did, and Sanders supported her. You're probably thinking of Hillary's failure to get behind Obama
It’s even odder in that he didn’t choose it. It was put to him by the interviewer and he accepted it. He must have known the source, but even if he didn’t he hasn’t resiled from it .
It is odd that the PM chooses as his catchphrase a description of a famous blunder:
Forward, the Light Brigade!” Was there a man dismayed? Not though the soldier knew Someone had blundered. Theirs not to make reply, Theirs not to reason why, Theirs but to do and die. Into the valley of Death Rode the six hundred.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
Yes; that's the case. Some years, while in pursuit of some family history evidence my wife and I had a week in Rhayader and attended Sunday service in a chapel where I believed one of my ancestors had been a minister. There were 10-12 people there and the average age seemed to be over 60.
Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other
I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.
Like they did with Hilary?? Sanders supporters sure rode in behind her then.
What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.
In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other
I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.
Like they did with Hilary?? Sanders supporters sure rode in behind her then.
The notion that Sanders supporters would in some number faĺl in behind Trump is beyond belief, but it happened in 2016. Now they know what Trump stands for, will they again?
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
A curious attitude- surely it shows a level of commitment to the partnership? Obviously his history suggests otherwise but her living at no.10 doesnt speak to that.
What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
Labour's pre-coalition 10% provides a benchmark. Although I'd hope Labour will be closer to lost deposit territory this time, given the absence of any campaign and the party's national travails.
What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
Maybe, but given it is not a regular constituency and not a hugely strong labour seat, I cannot see them worrying if their vote is squeezed even if they should be.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
A curious attitude- surely it shows a level of commitment to the partnership? Obviously his history suggests otherwise but her living at no.10 doesnt speak to that.
What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.
In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
I think Labour's Brexit policy is right for government and I wouldn't like to see it change to "We'll try to negotiate a better deal and then we promise to campaign against it", which is just daft. But it's poor for a by-election when only the motivated turn out, and not great for a GE. I expect Labour to drop to 4% or so, but I don't think that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
I am sure the morality issue is a genuine one with more socially conservative voters. Rightly so, Boris has a long history of disgraceful personal behaviour.
Very much so. If his own wife couldn’t trust him for years, then why should the rest of us?
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
I am sure the morality issue is a genuine one with more socially conservative voters. Rightly so, Boris has a long history of disgraceful personal behaviour.
Will Carrie Symonds move into Downing Street? Well, yes, but the funny thing is that during the campaign, Boris first refused to say, and then let his team brief that she would not. Of course, that was when he was a candidate; now he is prime minister. A trivial example perhaps, but it shows the importance of checking who said what and what they said.
What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
Maybe, but given it is not a regular constituency and not a hugely strong labour seat, I cannot see them worrying if their vote is squeezed even if they should be.
They won't worry, of course they won't. Most of the Labour leadership exist in a London vacuum.
But they should. This could be their Brent East, not their Newbury.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
He that is without sin, cast the first stone!
We don't want people throwing stones.
Some sandpaper while Warner is fielding down at third man would be quite funny, however.
A nasty bully who dished it out for years but doesn't like it when his crimes are thrown back at him.
I cant see any problem with the booing. They're hugely talented and that will be respected and will define their careers at the end of the day, but they did cheat, they can hardly complain that people bring it up.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
No doubt mentioned with frequent glee by LD canvassers to older voters, Liberals can be anything but liberal when they see a by election gain, see also Simon Hughes' infamous 'the straight choice' leaflet when standing against Peter Tatchell in the Bermondsey by election
Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other
I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.
The problem they have are a lot of the contrasts with Trump are not positive, in terms of Economy, Employment, Border Controls. To expose Trump's clear lack of popularity personality wise the Democrat's need to come up with a fresh agenda to take on Trump politically. Warren is the only candidate who can possibly do that, as I see it.
Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other.
Closer to home I fully expect the Liberal Undemocrats to win today's by-election in Brecon. However will the LibDem vote (which can be taken to be a composition of LibDem + Green +Plaid exceed that of Tory + Brexit? If not then Boris can be hopeful of winning it back at the GE next Spring if he gets Brexit through by 31/10 or at a forced GE if the opposition parties secure a vote of no confidence.
Will Brecon mark the high point of the current LibDem resurgence? To me this is a shade of Crosby when Shirley Williams overhauled a stonking Tory majority to win her seat in 1981, only to lose it back to the Tories in 1983.
Clearly lots of you including our Honourable host will be having a late night/early morning awaiting the result but I am hoping to sleep through out. Finding out at breakfast tomorrow will be good enough for me.
By the way Undemocrats because the LibDems have shown they only like and accept votes if the votes go their way. They accepted a majority of 6,000 on a tiny turnout was enough to justify setting up the Welsh Assembly but refuse to accept that a majority of 1.4 million on the highest turnout vote in the UK in generations is sufficient to justify Brexit. Their new leader, the youthful and fragrant Jo Swinson made an utter fool of herself on the Scottish media last week trying to justify why there should be what is in effect a Revocation 2nd referendum on Brexit but not a 2nd referendum on Scottish Independence when at least our Wee Nippy Sweetie First Minister does have a democratic majority vote at and mandate from Holyrood to ask for one!
Yes, it is difficult to argue against reruns of some votes and not others.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
I am sure the morality issue is a genuine one with more socially conservative voters. Rightly so, Boris has a long history of disgraceful personal behaviour.
Very much so. If his own wife couldn’t trust him for years, then why should the rest of us?
Jimmy Carter was loyal to his wife, Bill Clinton cheated with anything that moved.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
The ultimate 'chapels they don't go to'!
In 2002 the two surviving Presbyterian churches in Aberystwyth merged.
Half of the congregation of the one that closed refused to join the congregation of the one that remained open.
Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other.
Closer to home I fully expect the Liberal Undemocrats to win today's by-election in Brecon. However will the LibDem vote (which can be taken to be a composition of LibDem + Green +Plaid exceed that of Tory + Brexit? If not then Boris can be hopeful of winning it back at the GE next Spring if he gets Brexit through by 31/10 or at a forced GE if the opposition parties secure a vote of no confidence.
Will Brecon mark the high point of the current LibDem resurgence? To me this is a shade of Crosby when Shirley Williams overhauled a stonking Tory majority to win her seat in 1981, only to lose it back to the Tories in 1983.
Clearly lots of you including our Honourable host will be having a late night/early morning awaiting the result but I am hoping to sleep through out. Finding out at breakfast tomorrow will be good enough for me.
By the way Undemocrats because the LibDems have shown they only like and accept votes if the votes go their way. They accepted a majority of 6,000 on a tiny turnout was enough to justify setting up the Welsh Assembly but refuse to accept that a majority of 1.4 million on the highest turnout vote in the UK in generations is sufficient to justify Brexit. Their new leader, the youthful and fragrant Jo Swinson made an utter fool of herself on the Scottish media last week trying to justify why there should be what is in effect a Revocation 2nd referendum on Brexit but not a 2nd referendum on Scottish Independence when at least our Wee Nippy Sweetie First Minister does have a democratic majority vote at and mandate from Holyrood to ask for one!
Lib Dems are going nowhere, Swinson is crap and given their past record on treachery they deserve all they get.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
A curious attitude- surely it shows a level of commitment to the partnership? Obviously his history suggests otherwise but her living at no.10 doesnt speak to that.
It is a bit indecent before he is even divorced.
Eh, if theres no prospect of reconciliation then it's a moot point next to having already committed serial adultery. And if people are bothered enough by him being so unfaithful in marriage surely living with his new girlfriend wont make a difference, those against him for his personal life are already against him.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
I could believe that (though it seems a little optimistic), but it does mask the health of each congregation. My limited second-hand knowledge of both mid-Wales and Gwynedd suggests that single-figure, very elderly congregations are the norm. A friend started attending chapel in her early 30s and was practically greeted as the new Messiah!
(Methodist and Baptist churches are struggling in rural England too, of course.)
Edit: that piece about the Epynt chapel and its one worshipper is lovely.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
I am sure the morality issue is a genuine one with more socially conservative voters. Rightly so, Boris has a long history of disgraceful personal behaviour.
Very much so. If his own wife couldn’t trust him for years, then why should the rest of us?
Jimmy Carter was loyal to his wife, Bill Clinton cheated with anything that moved.
Who was the better President?
Jimmy Carter also foolishly said that he lusted after practically every woman he'd met.
So he didn't even get credit for being a good husband.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
No doubt mentioned with frequent glee by LD canvassers to older voters, Liberals can be anything but liberal when they see a by election gain, see also Simon Hughes' infamous 'the straight choice' leaflet when standing against Peter Tatchell in the Bermondsey by election
Was very happy to help out in Bermondsey in a very minor way and deliver a bit of late justice against Hughes in 2015 for that vile campaign.
What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.
In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
I think Labour's Brexit policy is right for government and I wouldn't like to see it change to "We'll try to negotiate a better deal and then we promise to campaign against it", which is just daft. But it's poor for a by-election when only the motivated turn out, and not great for a GE. I expect Labour to drop to 4% or so, but I don't think that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).
In that case it is between you and Corbyn as to who turns the lights out.
In what has become a binary choice, second vote or no deal, fence sitters will be blown to kingdom come.
I cannot see any deal which will satisfy the majority from either side now. Any deal will be both too Brexity, or not Brexity enough.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
I could believe that (though it seems a little optimistic), but it does mask the health of each congregation. My limited second-hand knowledge of both mid-Wales and Gwynedd suggests that single-figure, very elderly congregations are the norm. A friend started attending chapel in her early 30s and was practically greeted as the new Messiah!
(Methodist and Baptist churches are struggling in rural England too, of course.)
I don't know why you said 'rural.' My experience is that they are struggling badly in urban England too.
And yes, I would partly agree with your post, although again, it varies. The chapels in Aberystwyth are still pretty full, those in Borth are now pretty houses.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
I could believe that (though it seems a little optimistic), but it does mask the health of each congregation. My limited second-hand knowledge of both mid-Wales and Gwynedd suggests that single-figure, very elderly congregations are the norm. A friend started attending chapel in her early 30s and was practically greeted as the new Messiah!
(Methodist and Baptist churches are struggling in rural England too, of course.)
I don't know why you said 'rural.' My experience is that they are struggling badly in urban England too.
And yes, I would partly agree with your post, although again, it varies. The chapels in Aberystwyth are still pretty full, those in Borth are now pretty houses.
Just that I don’t have any experience of urban non-conformism!
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
It would be nice if someone could come up with a church without God. A place where you can get together with your neighbours, mobilise to help others, be told some uplifting stuff and sing a load of great songs, without being told you're better than other people, or that the world was made in a way clearly rendered implausible by modern science, or that some people were born wrong.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
No doubt mentioned with frequent glee by LD canvassers to older voters, Liberals can be anything but liberal when they see a by election gain, see also Simon Hughes' infamous 'the straight choice' leaflet when standing against Peter Tatchell in the Bermondsey by election
Was very happy to help out in Bermondsey in a very minor way and deliver a bit of late justice against Hughes in 2015 for that vile campaign.
Indeed and it turned out Hughes was bi himself anyway
However, it's certainly a less popular 'progressive' policy than, for instance, the 'Green Deal', which attracts the support of over 60% of those polled.
What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
Labour stay at homes will surely be another big factor. They are very good news for Johnson.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
No doubt mentioned with frequent glee by LD canvassers to older voters, Liberals can be anything but liberal when they see a by election gain, see also Simon Hughes' infamous 'the straight choice' leaflet when standing against Peter Tatchell in the Bermondsey by election
Was very happy to help out in Bermondsey in a very minor way and deliver a bit of late justice against Hughes in 2015 for that vile campaign.
Much of which let it not be forgetting was orchestrated by a splinter group from within Labour...
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
No doubt mentioned with frequent glee by LD canvassers to older voters, Liberals can be anything but liberal when they see a by election gain, see also Simon Hughes' infamous 'the straight choice' leaflet when standing against Peter Tatchell in the Bermondsey by election
Was very happy to help out in Bermondsey in a very minor way and deliver a bit of late justice against Hughes in 2015 for that vile campaign.
You are re-writing history there. Most of the vile stuff came from the "True Labour" candidate O'Grady.
What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
Labour will be squeezed here as they have been since the LibDems became clearly identified as the stronger anti-Tory option. In 2010 Labour polled just 10% here.
In the Richmond by election a few years ago Labour got less votes than they had members in the area (pretty sure) getting squeezed in a seat we aren't going to win, especially in a by election is to be expected.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
I am not surprised!
This is the 21st century not the 1950s, yes we can still have the happily married and loyal to their first love PM as the ideal but in reality many now divorce, have live in partners, children out of wedlock etc and Boris' situation is no difficult to millions of others
Off topic, but I thought George Clarke's programme last night on social housing and the start of his new campaign was excellent.
The material about Vienna and social housing there (all classes, 1st class, low rent, even swimming pools, play areas etc) was really interesting.
The minister, Brokenshire (departed a week before programme aired) came across as utterly useless, just wibberling about change being important and aware of the issues etc etc.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
It would be nice if someone could come up with a church without God. A place where you can get together with your neighbours, mobilise to help others, be told some uplifting stuff and sing a load of great songs, without being told you're better than other people, or that the world was made in a way clearly rendered implausible by modern science, or that some people were born wrong.
There is an organisation like that in London. Indeed, in the nineteenth century there was an attempt to set up a whole quasi-religious secular organisation complete with hymn-singing.
But in my experience such people as attend these places tend to be far more holier-than-thou, arrogant, bigoted and downright weird than religious people.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
A curious attitude- surely it shows a level of commitment to the partnership? Obviously his history suggests otherwise but her living at no.10 doesnt speak to that.
It is a bit indecent before he is even divorced.
It’s the 21st Century.
I don’t particularly trust or like Boris Johnson, but these conventions died a long time ago.
What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.
In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
I think Labour's Brexit policy is right for government and I wouldn't like to see it change to "We'll try to negotiate a better deal and then we promise to campaign against it", which is just daft. But it's poor for a by-election when only the motivated turn out, and not great for a GE. I expect Labour to drop to 4% or so, but I don't think that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).
Labour scored nearly 18% last time; I'll be amazed if they get 14% this time. Edit/ Apologies, I see that you said "to 4%". Probably right.
I will also be amazed if turnout drops hugely. There is apathy around, so turnout will probably drop from the GE 77% (noting that the previous Brecon by-election scored nearly 80% turnout). But I doubt you'll be able to dismiss the result on grounds of low turnout.
However, it's certainly a less popular 'progressive' policy than, for instance, the 'Green Deal', which attracts the support of over 60% of those polled.
Only 46% back it if it diminishes the role of their private insurer, though 55% if they still keep their doctor and hospital but no guarantee of that
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
He that is without sin, cast the first stone!
We don't want people throwing stones.
Some sandpaper while Warner is fielding down at third man would be quite funny, however.
A nasty bully who dished it out for years but doesn't like it when his crimes are thrown back at him.
I cant see any problem with the booing. They're hugely talented and that will be respected and will define their careers at the end of the day, but they did cheat, they can hardly complain that people bring it up.
It could be counter productive, both have the ability to get the runs that get Australia over the line in this series. Yes they got found out by the South African broadcasters but the punishments ridiculously harsh. The Aussie authorities regretted that when they hardly won a game when they were out and interest in the team dropped dramatically. Just support for the England team is what I want to hear, non stop boorish abuse of Warne never seemed to work.
What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.
In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
I think Labour's Brexit policy is right for government and I wouldn't like to see it change to "We'll try to negotiate a better deal and then we promise to campaign against it", which is just daft. But it's poor for a by-election when only the motivated turn out, and not great for a GE. I expect Labour to drop to 4% or so, but I don't think that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).
In that case it is between you and Corbyn as to who turns the lights out.
In what has become a binary choice, second vote or no deal, fence sitters will be blown to kingdom come.
I cannot see any deal which will satisfy the majority from either side now. Any deal will be both too Brexity, or not Brexity enough.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
He that is without sin, cast the first stone!
We don't want people throwing stones.
Some sandpaper while Warner is fielding down at third man would be quite funny, however.
A nasty bully who dished it out for years but doesn't like it when his crimes are thrown back at him.
An alternative view is one of the most exciting opening batsmen in the world today, hopefully matched in this series by Jason Roy. I find this going on about the ball tampering tedious. Teams have done this since time immemorial and they have served their time.
I am expecting a close series with a lot of results. Both teams have much better bowling attacks than batsmen. 3-4 days tests would not surprise me at all.
You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
I could believe that (though it seems a little optimistic), but it does mask the health of each congregation. My limited second-hand knowledge of both mid-Wales and Gwynedd suggests that single-figure, very elderly congregations are the norm. A friend started attending chapel in her early 30s and was practically greeted as the new Messiah!
(Methodist and Baptist churches are struggling in rural England too, of course.)
I don't know why you said 'rural.' My experience is that they are struggling badly in urban England too.
And yes, I would partly agree with your post, although again, it varies. The chapels in Aberystwyth are still pretty full, those in Borth are now pretty houses.
I come from a long line of Methodists on mother's side, including a methodist minister and missionary. It was big thing in late 1800s, and early part of 20th century. These days though there is real serious decline. Indeed the methodist church at bottom of my road has just merged with another and the vacant building and plot will become, yes you guessed it, flats for private rent.
Comments
There is a month off now, isn't there, and then the no-hopers are dropped?
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
If they come behind UKIP, or do an SDP Bootle impression, then they have problems.
*bookmarks post for later to see if it worked*
How much are her odds simply driven by the belief she’s a female Obama?
That said, he was a Gog and they don't like Gogs in Mid Wales.
She's making eyes
At everything she meet
It ain't it a crime
When she make you pump heat
She'll make you fly because that's her thing
She'll make you dry
Then you know you're broken in
Who all need it, you
Who all need it, yes you do
You all breathe it
We all need it
Are you ready for a good time
Then get ready for the night line
Are you ready for a good time
Then get ready for the night line
Are you ready for a good time
Closer to home I fully expect the Liberal Undemocrats to win today's by-election in Brecon. However will the LibDem vote (which can be taken to be a composition of LibDem + Green +Plaid exceed that of Tory + Brexit? If not then Boris can be hopeful of winning it back at the GE next Spring if he gets Brexit through by 31/10 or at a forced GE if the opposition parties secure a vote of no confidence.
Will Brecon mark the high point of the current LibDem resurgence? To me this is a shade of Crosby when Shirley Williams overhauled a stonking Tory majority to win her seat in 1981, only to lose it back to the Tories in 1983.
Clearly lots of you including our Honourable host will be having a late night/early morning awaiting the result but I am hoping to sleep through out. Finding out at breakfast tomorrow will be good enough for me.
By the way Undemocrats because the LibDems have shown they only like and accept votes if the votes go their way. They accepted a majority of 6,000 on a tiny turnout was enough to justify setting up the Welsh Assembly but refuse to accept that a majority of 1.4 million on the highest turnout vote in the UK in generations is sufficient to justify Brexit. Their new leader, the youthful and fragrant Jo Swinson made an utter fool of herself on the Scottish media last week trying to justify why there should be what is in effect a Revocation 2nd referendum on Brexit but not a 2nd referendum on Scottish Independence when at least our Wee Nippy Sweetie First Minister does have a democratic majority vote at and mandate from Holyrood to ask for one!
Some sandpaper while Warner is fielding down at third man would be quite funny, however.
A nasty bully who dished it out for years but doesn't like it when his crimes are thrown back at him.
Forward, the Light Brigade!”
Was there a man dismayed?
Not though the soldier knew
Someone had blundered.
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
It looks like Warren to me.
In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/7/31/20749497/2020-democratic-debates-presidential-election-winners-losers-night-two
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
But they should. This could be their Brent East, not their Newbury.
Who was the better President?
Half of the congregation of the one that closed refused to join the congregation of the one that remained open.
Here's a story for this morning though:
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/remote-welsh-chapel-theres-only-14506732
(Methodist and Baptist churches are struggling in rural England too, of course.)
Edit: that piece about the Epynt chapel and its one worshipper is lovely.
So he didn't even get credit for being a good husband.
In what has become a binary choice, second vote or no deal, fence sitters will be blown to kingdom come.
I cannot see any deal which will satisfy the majority from either side now. Any deal will be both too Brexity, or not Brexity enough.
I read the other day that he has not adjusted to a national campaign from a TX-only campaign.
And yes, I would partly agree with your post, although again, it varies. The chapels in Aberystwyth are still pretty full, those in Borth are now pretty houses.
https://morningconsult.com/2019/07/02/majority-backs-medicare-for-all-replacing-private-plans-if-preferred-providers-stay/
However, it's certainly a less popular 'progressive' policy than, for instance, the 'Green Deal', which attracts the support of over 60% of those polled.
Off topic, but I thought George Clarke's programme last night on social housing and the start of his new campaign was excellent.
The material about Vienna and social housing there (all classes, 1st class, low rent, even swimming pools, play areas etc) was really interesting.
The minister, Brokenshire (departed a week before programme aired) came across as utterly useless, just wibberling about change being important and aware of the issues etc etc.
Can Clarke do a Jamie Oliver on housing?
But in my experience such people as attend these places tend to be far more holier-than-thou, arrogant, bigoted and downright weird than religious people.
I don’t particularly trust or like Boris Johnson, but these conventions died a long time ago.
I will also be amazed if turnout drops hugely. There is apathy around, so turnout will probably drop from the GE 77% (noting that the previous Brecon by-election scored nearly 80% turnout). But I doubt you'll be able to dismiss the result on grounds of low turnout.
I am expecting a close series with a lot of results. Both teams have much better bowling attacks than batsmen. 3-4 days tests would not surprise me at all.
At the moment, the Tories are winning that battle, but you feel they are one mighty cock-up away from losing the advantage.
It's as well they've got a leader of tact, judgement, skill and experience to make sure that doesn't...ah.