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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden back as favourite for the nomination after Harris fails

SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited August 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden back as favourite for the nomination after Harris fails to follow on from her first debate sucess

There’ve been big movements in the WH2020 Democratic nomination betting following last night’s second part of the latest round of debates including Biden and Kamala Harris.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Biden and Harris both look unconvincing for different reasons. Bernie Sanders surely established his ceiling against Hillary last time, so looks booked for another podium finish but not the chequered flay. Elizabeth Warren: oh, I don't know.

    There is a month off now, isn't there, and then the no-hopers are dropped?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    This is like the recent Conservative leadership contest where none of the candidates looked like a prime minister but you knew one of them soon would be.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    This is like the recent Conservative leadership contest where none of the candidates looked like a prime minister but you knew one of them soon would be.

    A feeling we will all have on steroids come the next General Election.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    ydoethur said:

    This is like the recent Conservative leadership contest where none of the candidates looked like a prime minister but you knew one of them soon would be.

    A feeling we will all have on steroids come the next General Election.
    Although that is slightly different as one of the candidates is already PM.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Fourth like Labour
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pb's Wales correspondents will presumably have their binoculars scanning the skies for the Boris or Swinson helicopters flying in for the count.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    philiph said:

    ydoethur said:

    This is like the recent Conservative leadership contest where none of the candidates looked like a prime minister but you knew one of them soon would be.

    A feeling we will all have on steroids come the next General Election.
    Although that is slightly different as one of the candidates is already PM.
    Yes, but he doesn't look or behave like it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    We'll know by 3 am.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    Labour must at all costs finish fourth today. Third would be better.

    If they come behind UKIP, or do an SDP Bootle impression, then they have problems.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Pb's Wales correspondents will presumably have their binoculars scanning the skies for the Boris or Swinson helicopters flying in for the count.

    Lurking in the Wye Valley with a FIM-92 shouldered.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    They will get as many votes as England's top four do runs.

    *bookmarks post for later to see if it worked*
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:
    Buzzfeed ? I can now see light shining through the bottom of Scotts barrel.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    Biden and Harris both look unconvincing for different reasons. Bernie Sanders surely established his ceiling against Hillary last time, so looks booked for another podium finish but not the chequered flay. Elizabeth Warren: oh, I don't know.

    There is a month off now, isn't there, and then the no-hopers are dropped?

    Even the Beeb called out Harris as a loser.

    How much are her odds simply driven by the belief she’s a female Obama?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    Ironic really when you consider the last PM with a live-in girlfriend was Welsh.

    That said, he was a Gog and they don't like Gogs in Mid Wales.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Scott_P said:
    Probably selected because Boris has empathy for the AC⚡DC song of the same name.

    She's making eyes
    At everything she meet
    It ain't it a crime
    When she make you pump heat
    She'll make you fly because that's her thing
    She'll make you dry
    Then you know you're broken in
    Who all need it, you
    Who all need it, yes you do
    You all breathe it
    We all need it
    Are you ready for a good time
    Then get ready for the night line
    Are you ready for a good time
    Then get ready for the night line
    Are you ready for a good time
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Scott_P said:
    This time it’s the leavers publicising project fear. With taxpayers cash.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    Unsurprising.. but its 2019 not 1819
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
  • Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other.

    Closer to home I fully expect the Liberal Undemocrats to win today's by-election in Brecon. However will the LibDem vote (which can be taken to be a composition of LibDem + Green +Plaid exceed that of Tory + Brexit? If not then Boris can be hopeful of winning it back at the GE next Spring if he gets Brexit through by 31/10 or at a forced GE if the opposition parties secure a vote of no confidence.

    Will Brecon mark the high point of the current LibDem resurgence? To me this is a shade of Crosby when Shirley Williams overhauled a stonking Tory majority to win her seat in 1981, only to lose it back to the Tories in 1983.

    Clearly lots of you including our Honourable host will be having a late night/early morning awaiting the result but I am hoping to sleep through out. Finding out at breakfast tomorrow will be good enough for me.

    By the way Undemocrats because the LibDems have shown they only like and accept votes if the votes go their way. They accepted a majority of 6,000 on a tiny turnout was enough to justify setting up the Welsh Assembly but refuse to accept that a majority of 1.4 million on the highest turnout vote in the UK in generations is sufficient to justify Brexit. Their new leader, the youthful and fragrant Jo Swinson made an utter fool of herself on the Scottish media last week trying to justify why there should be what is in effect a Revocation 2nd referendum on Brexit but not a 2nd referendum on Scottish Independence when at least our Wee Nippy Sweetie First Minister does have a democratic majority vote at and mandate from Holyrood to ask for one!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    He that is without sin, cast the first stone!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    He that is without sin, cast the first stone!
    We don't want people throwing stones.

    Some sandpaper while Warner is fielding down at third man would be quite funny, however.

    A nasty bully who dished it out for years but doesn't like it when his crimes are thrown back at him.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    I am sure the morality issue is a genuine one with more socially conservative voters. Rightly so, Boris has a long history of disgraceful personal behaviour.
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382

    Biden and Harris both look unconvincing for different reasons. Bernie Sanders surely established his ceiling against Hillary last time, so looks booked for another podium finish but not the chequered flay. Elizabeth Warren: oh, I don't know.

    There is a month off now, isn't there, and then the no-hopers are dropped?

    Even the Beeb called out Harris as a loser.

    How much are her odds simply driven by the belief she’s a female Obama?
    Harris clearly has a big machine behind her, a lot of Clinton staff are running her campaign and there has even been talk the Obama's will back her. I just don't see her justifying the hype, Tulsi really took her down last night and her economic analysis is akin to the average BBC reporter. I think Warren is much more likely to trouble Trump in campaign, Harris looks out of her depth outside legal spheres, even there Tulsi took a huge look at her performance.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Scott_P said:
    It is odd that the PM chooses as his catchphrase a description of a famous blunder:

    Forward, the Light Brigade!”
    Was there a man dismayed?
    Not though the soldier knew
    Someone had blundered.
    Theirs not to make reply,
    Theirs not to reason why,
    Theirs but to do and die.
    Into the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited August 2019

    Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other

    I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited August 2019
    What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.

    If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.

    If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.

    If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.

    As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other

    I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.
    Like they did with Hilary?? Sanders supporters sure rode in behind her then.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other

    I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.
    Divisions are part for the course at the primary stage.

    It looks like Warren to me.
  • andypetukandypetuk Posts: 69
    edited August 2019
    Deleted as a duplicate

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other

    I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.
    Like they did with Hilary?? Sanders supporters sure rode in behind her then.
    Yeah they did, and Sanders supported her. You're probably thinking of Hillary's failure to get behind Obama
  • It’s even odder in that he didn’t choose it. It was put to him by the interviewer and he accepted it. He must have known the source, but even if he didn’t he hasn’t resiled from it .
    andypetuk said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    It is odd that the PM chooses as his catchphrase a description of a famous blunder:

    Forward, the Light Brigade!”
    Was there a man dismayed?
    Not though the soldier knew
    Someone had blundered.
    Theirs not to make reply,
    Theirs not to reason why,
    Theirs but to do and die.
    Into the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
    Yes; that's the case. Some years, while in pursuit of some family history evidence my wife and I had a week in Rhayader and attended Sunday service in a chapel where I believed one of my ancestors had been a minister. There were 10-12 people there and the average age seemed to be over 60.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other

    I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.
    Like they did with Hilary?? Sanders supporters sure rode in behind her then.
    And they have seen the result of that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    ydoethur said:

    What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.

    If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.

    If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.

    If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.

    As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.

    All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.

    In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,388

    Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other

    I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.
    Like they did with Hilary?? Sanders supporters sure rode in behind her then.
    The notion that Sanders supporters would in some number faĺl in behind Trump is beyond belief, but it happened in 2016. Now they know what Trump stands for, will they again?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited August 2019

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    A curious attitude- surely it shows a level of commitment to the partnership? Obviously his history suggests otherwise but her living at no.10 doesnt speak to that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,155
    Looks like a Biden v Warren nomination battle then as of this morning
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    Very similar verdict from a seemingly very conservative commentator (he is deeply shocked that the Democrats are edging towards anything NHSish):

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/7/31/20749497/2020-democratic-debates-presidential-election-winners-losers-night-two
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    If I were going to be in the ground, I’d take a sheet of sandpaper to offer them when they’re fielding on the boundary...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    ydoethur said:

    What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.

    If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.

    If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.

    If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.

    As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.

    Labour's pre-coalition 10% provides a benchmark. Although I'd hope Labour will be closer to lost deposit territory this time, given the absence of any campaign and the party's national travails.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    A curious attitude- surely it shows a level of commitment to the partnership?
    Living in sin is living in sin.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    ydoethur said:

    What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.

    If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.

    If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.

    If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.

    As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.

    Maybe, but given it is not a regular constituency and not a hugely strong labour seat, I cannot see them worrying if their vote is squeezed even if they should be.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
    At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.

    The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    A curious attitude- surely it shows a level of commitment to the partnership? Obviously his history suggests otherwise but her living at no.10 doesnt speak to that.
    It is a bit indecent before he is even divorced.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.

    If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.

    If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.

    If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.

    As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.

    All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.

    In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
    I think Labour's Brexit policy is right for government and I wouldn't like to see it change to "We'll try to negotiate a better deal and then we promise to campaign against it", which is just daft. But it's poor for a by-election when only the motivated turn out, and not great for a GE. I expect Labour to drop to 4% or so, but I don't think that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    edited August 2019
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    I am sure the morality issue is a genuine one with more socially conservative voters. Rightly so, Boris has a long history of disgraceful personal behaviour.
    Very much so. If his own wife couldn’t trust him for years, then why should the rest of us?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    I am sure the morality issue is a genuine one with more socially conservative voters. Rightly so, Boris has a long history of disgraceful personal behaviour.
    Will Carrie Symonds move into Downing Street? Well, yes, but the funny thing is that during the campaign, Boris first refused to say, and then let his team brief that she would not. Of course, that was when he was a candidate; now he is prime minister. A trivial example perhaps, but it shows the importance of checking who said what and what they said.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.

    If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.

    If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.

    If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.

    As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.

    Maybe, but given it is not a regular constituency and not a hugely strong labour seat, I cannot see them worrying if their vote is squeezed even if they should be.
    They won't worry, of course they won't. Most of the Labour leadership exist in a London vacuum.

    But they should. This could be their Brent East, not their Newbury.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
    At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.

    The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
    The ultimate 'chapels they don't go to'!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    He that is without sin, cast the first stone!
    We don't want people throwing stones.

    Some sandpaper while Warner is fielding down at third man would be quite funny, however.

    A nasty bully who dished it out for years but doesn't like it when his crimes are thrown back at him.
    I cant see any problem with the booing. They're hugely talented and that will be respected and will define their careers at the end of the day, but they did cheat, they can hardly complain that people bring it up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,155
    edited August 2019

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    No doubt mentioned with frequent glee by LD canvassers to older voters, Liberals can be anything but liberal when they see a by election gain, see also Simon Hughes' infamous 'the straight choice' leaflet when standing against Peter Tatchell in the Bermondsey by election
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    A curious attitude- surely it shows a level of commitment to the partnership?
    Living in sin is living in sin.
    And fire is definitely caused by the departure of phlogiston from the burning substance.
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382

    Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other

    I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.
    The problem they have are a lot of the contrasts with Trump are not positive, in terms of Economy, Employment, Border Controls. To expose Trump's clear lack of popularity personality wise the Democrat's need to come up with a fresh agenda to take on Trump politically. Warren is the only candidate who can possibly do that, as I see it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other.

    Closer to home I fully expect the Liberal Undemocrats to win today's by-election in Brecon. However will the LibDem vote (which can be taken to be a composition of LibDem + Green +Plaid exceed that of Tory + Brexit? If not then Boris can be hopeful of winning it back at the GE next Spring if he gets Brexit through by 31/10 or at a forced GE if the opposition parties secure a vote of no confidence.

    Will Brecon mark the high point of the current LibDem resurgence? To me this is a shade of Crosby when Shirley Williams overhauled a stonking Tory majority to win her seat in 1981, only to lose it back to the Tories in 1983.

    Clearly lots of you including our Honourable host will be having a late night/early morning awaiting the result but I am hoping to sleep through out. Finding out at breakfast tomorrow will be good enough for me.

    By the way Undemocrats because the LibDems have shown they only like and accept votes if the votes go their way. They accepted a majority of 6,000 on a tiny turnout was enough to justify setting up the Welsh Assembly but refuse to accept that a majority of 1.4 million on the highest turnout vote in the UK in generations is sufficient to justify Brexit. Their new leader, the youthful and fragrant Jo Swinson made an utter fool of herself on the Scottish media last week trying to justify why there should be what is in effect a Revocation 2nd referendum on Brexit but not a 2nd referendum on Scottish Independence when at least our Wee Nippy Sweetie First Minister does have a democratic majority vote at and mandate from Holyrood to ask for one!

    Yes, it is difficult to argue against reruns of some votes and not others.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,155
    edited August 2019
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    I am sure the morality issue is a genuine one with more socially conservative voters. Rightly so, Boris has a long history of disgraceful personal behaviour.
    Very much so. If his own wife couldn’t trust him for years, then why should the rest of us?
    Jimmy Carter was loyal to his wife, Bill Clinton cheated with anything that moved.

    Who was the better President?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Beto O'Rourke was last traded at 120. It's only two months ago that he was one of the leading group of four. How soon fortunes change.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited August 2019

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
    At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.

    The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
    The ultimate 'chapels they don't go to'!
    In 2002 the two surviving Presbyterian churches in Aberystwyth merged.

    Half of the congregation of the one that closed refused to join the congregation of the one that remained open.

    Here's a story for this morning though:

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/remote-welsh-chapel-theres-only-14506732
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other.

    Closer to home I fully expect the Liberal Undemocrats to win today's by-election in Brecon. However will the LibDem vote (which can be taken to be a composition of LibDem + Green +Plaid exceed that of Tory + Brexit? If not then Boris can be hopeful of winning it back at the GE next Spring if he gets Brexit through by 31/10 or at a forced GE if the opposition parties secure a vote of no confidence.

    Will Brecon mark the high point of the current LibDem resurgence? To me this is a shade of Crosby when Shirley Williams overhauled a stonking Tory majority to win her seat in 1981, only to lose it back to the Tories in 1983.

    Clearly lots of you including our Honourable host will be having a late night/early morning awaiting the result but I am hoping to sleep through out. Finding out at breakfast tomorrow will be good enough for me.

    By the way Undemocrats because the LibDems have shown they only like and accept votes if the votes go their way. They accepted a majority of 6,000 on a tiny turnout was enough to justify setting up the Welsh Assembly but refuse to accept that a majority of 1.4 million on the highest turnout vote in the UK in generations is sufficient to justify Brexit. Their new leader, the youthful and fragrant Jo Swinson made an utter fool of herself on the Scottish media last week trying to justify why there should be what is in effect a Revocation 2nd referendum on Brexit but not a 2nd referendum on Scottish Independence when at least our Wee Nippy Sweetie First Minister does have a democratic majority vote at and mandate from Holyrood to ask for one!

    Lib Dems are going nowhere, Swinson is crap and given their past record on treachery they deserve all they get.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    A curious attitude- surely it shows a level of commitment to the partnership? Obviously his history suggests otherwise but her living at no.10 doesnt speak to that.
    It is a bit indecent before he is even divorced.

    Eh, if theres no prospect of reconciliation then it's a moot point next to having already committed serial adultery. And if people are bothered enough by him being so unfaithful in marriage surely living with his new girlfriend wont make a difference, those against him for his personal life are already against him.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited August 2019
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
    At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.

    The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
    I could believe that (though it seems a little optimistic), but it does mask the health of each congregation. My limited second-hand knowledge of both mid-Wales and Gwynedd suggests that single-figure, very elderly congregations are the norm. A friend started attending chapel in her early 30s and was practically greeted as the new Messiah!

    (Methodist and Baptist churches are struggling in rural England too, of course.)

    Edit: that piece about the Epynt chapel and its one worshipper is lovely.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    I am sure the morality issue is a genuine one with more socially conservative voters. Rightly so, Boris has a long history of disgraceful personal behaviour.
    Very much so. If his own wife couldn’t trust him for years, then why should the rest of us?
    Jimmy Carter was loyal to his wife, Bill Clinton cheated with anything that moved.

    Who was the better President?
    Jimmy Carter also foolishly said that he lusted after practically every woman he'd met.

    So he didn't even get credit for being a good husband.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Beto O'Rourke was last traded at 120. It's only two months ago that he was one of the leading group of four. How soon fortunes change.

    The joy's of American primary and ore primary season. I cannot wait to see which no hoper may next get the limelight, I hope they dont disappoint.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    No doubt mentioned with frequent glee by LD canvassers to older voters, Liberals can be anything but liberal when they see a by election gain, see also Simon Hughes' infamous 'the straight choice' leaflet when standing against Peter Tatchell in the Bermondsey by election
    Was very happy to help out in Bermondsey in a very minor way and deliver a bit of late justice against Hughes in 2015 for that vile campaign.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,388

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.

    If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.

    If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.

    If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.

    As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.

    All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.

    In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
    I think Labour's Brexit policy is right for government and I wouldn't like to see it change to "We'll try to negotiate a better deal and then we promise to campaign against it", which is just daft. But it's poor for a by-election when only the motivated turn out, and not great for a GE. I expect Labour to drop to 4% or so, but I don't think that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).
    In that case it is between you and Corbyn as to who turns the lights out.

    In what has become a binary choice, second vote or no deal, fence sitters will be blown to kingdom come.

    I cannot see any deal which will satisfy the majority from either side now. Any deal will be both too Brexity, or not Brexity enough.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    I am not surprised!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Beto O'Rourke was last traded at 120. It's only two months ago that he was one of the leading group of four. How soon fortunes change.

    Yes, incredible really. He seems to have singularly failed to light up a campaign.

    I read the other day that he has not adjusted to a national campaign from a TX-only campaign.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
    At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.

    The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
    I could believe that (though it seems a little optimistic), but it does mask the health of each congregation. My limited second-hand knowledge of both mid-Wales and Gwynedd suggests that single-figure, very elderly congregations are the norm. A friend started attending chapel in her early 30s and was practically greeted as the new Messiah!

    (Methodist and Baptist churches are struggling in rural England too, of course.)
    I don't know why you said 'rural.' My experience is that they are struggling badly in urban England too.

    And yes, I would partly agree with your post, although again, it varies. The chapels in Aberystwyth are still pretty full, those in Borth are now pretty houses.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    This time it’s the leavers publicising project fear. With taxpayers cash.
    Its amazing what can be done now that Hammond's dead hand is no longer on the tiller.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
    At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.

    The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
    I could believe that (though it seems a little optimistic), but it does mask the health of each congregation. My limited second-hand knowledge of both mid-Wales and Gwynedd suggests that single-figure, very elderly congregations are the norm. A friend started attending chapel in her early 30s and was practically greeted as the new Messiah!

    (Methodist and Baptist churches are struggling in rural England too, of course.)
    I don't know why you said 'rural.' My experience is that they are struggling badly in urban England too.

    And yes, I would partly agree with your post, although again, it varies. The chapels in Aberystwyth are still pretty full, those in Borth are now pretty houses.
    Just that I don’t have any experience of urban non-conformism!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
    At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.

    The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
    It would be nice if someone could come up with a church without God. A place where you can get together with your neighbours, mobilise to help others, be told some uplifting stuff and sing a load of great songs, without being told you're better than other people, or that the world was made in a way clearly rendered implausible by modern science, or that some people were born wrong.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,155

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    No doubt mentioned with frequent glee by LD canvassers to older voters, Liberals can be anything but liberal when they see a by election gain, see also Simon Hughes' infamous 'the straight choice' leaflet when standing against Peter Tatchell in the Bermondsey by election
    Was very happy to help out in Bermondsey in a very minor way and deliver a bit of late justice against Hughes in 2015 for that vile campaign.
    Indeed and it turned out Hughes was bi himself anyway
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    Very similar verdict from a seemingly very conservative commentator (he is deeply shocked that the Democrats are edging towards anything NHSish):

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/7/31/20749497/2020-democratic-debates-presidential-election-winners-losers-night-two

    Except that there appears to be a small majority of the electorate in favour of it:
    https://morningconsult.com/2019/07/02/majority-backs-medicare-for-all-replacing-private-plans-if-preferred-providers-stay/

    However, it's certainly a less popular 'progressive' policy than, for instance, the 'Green Deal', which attracts the support of over 60% of those polled.
  • ydoethur said:

    What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.

    If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.

    If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.

    If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.

    As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.

    Labour stay at homes will surely be another big factor. They are very good news for Johnson.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    No doubt mentioned with frequent glee by LD canvassers to older voters, Liberals can be anything but liberal when they see a by election gain, see also Simon Hughes' infamous 'the straight choice' leaflet when standing against Peter Tatchell in the Bermondsey by election
    Was very happy to help out in Bermondsey in a very minor way and deliver a bit of late justice against Hughes in 2015 for that vile campaign.
    Much of which let it not be forgetting was orchestrated by a splinter group from within Labour...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    No doubt mentioned with frequent glee by LD canvassers to older voters, Liberals can be anything but liberal when they see a by election gain, see also Simon Hughes' infamous 'the straight choice' leaflet when standing against Peter Tatchell in the Bermondsey by election
    Was very happy to help out in Bermondsey in a very minor way and deliver a bit of late justice against Hughes in 2015 for that vile campaign.
    You are re-writing history there. Most of the vile stuff came from the "True Labour" candidate O'Grady.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.

    If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.

    If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.

    If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.

    As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.

    Labour will be squeezed here as they have been since the LibDems became clearly identified as the stronger anti-Tory option. In 2010 Labour polled just 10% here.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    In the Richmond by election a few years ago Labour got less votes than they had members in the area (pretty sure) getting squeezed in a seat we aren't going to win, especially in a by election is to be expected.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,155
    edited August 2019
    justin124 said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    I am not surprised!
    This is the 21st century not the 1950s, yes we can still have the happily married and loyal to their first love PM as the ideal but in reality many now divorce, have live in partners, children out of wedlock etc and Boris' situation is no difficult to millions of others
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    edited August 2019
    Morning all,

    Off topic, but I thought George Clarke's programme last night on social housing and the start of his new campaign was excellent.

    The material about Vienna and social housing there (all classes, 1st class, low rent, even swimming pools, play areas etc) was really interesting.

    The minister, Brokenshire (departed a week before programme aired) came across as utterly useless, just wibberling about change being important and aware of the issues etc etc.

    Can Clarke do a Jamie Oliver on housing?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
    At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.

    The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
    It would be nice if someone could come up with a church without God. A place where you can get together with your neighbours, mobilise to help others, be told some uplifting stuff and sing a load of great songs, without being told you're better than other people, or that the world was made in a way clearly rendered implausible by modern science, or that some people were born wrong.
    There is an organisation like that in London. Indeed, in the nineteenth century there was an attempt to set up a whole quasi-religious secular organisation complete with hymn-singing.

    But in my experience such people as attend these places tend to be far more holier-than-thou, arrogant, bigoted and downright weird than religious people.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    A curious attitude- surely it shows a level of commitment to the partnership? Obviously his history suggests otherwise but her living at no.10 doesnt speak to that.
    It is a bit indecent before he is even divorced.

    It’s the 21st Century.

    I don’t particularly trust or like Boris Johnson, but these conventions died a long time ago.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited August 2019

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.

    If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.

    If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.

    If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.

    As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.

    All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.

    In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
    I think Labour's Brexit policy is right for government and I wouldn't like to see it change to "We'll try to negotiate a better deal and then we promise to campaign against it", which is just daft. But it's poor for a by-election when only the motivated turn out, and not great for a GE. I expect Labour to drop to 4% or so, but I don't think that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).
    Labour scored nearly 18% last time; I'll be amazed if they get 14% this time. Edit/ Apologies, I see that you said "to 4%". Probably right.

    I will also be amazed if turnout drops hugely. There is apathy around, so turnout will probably drop from the GE 77% (noting that the previous Brecon by-election scored nearly 80% turnout). But I doubt you'll be able to dismiss the result on grounds of low turnout.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,155
    Nigelb said:

    Very similar verdict from a seemingly very conservative commentator (he is deeply shocked that the Democrats are edging towards anything NHSish):

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/7/31/20749497/2020-democratic-debates-presidential-election-winners-losers-night-two

    Except that there appears to be a small majority of the electorate in favour of it:
    https://morningconsult.com/2019/07/02/majority-backs-medicare-for-all-replacing-private-plans-if-preferred-providers-stay/

    However, it's certainly a less popular 'progressive' policy than, for instance, the 'Green Deal', which attracts the support of over 60% of those polled.
    Only 46% back it if it diminishes the role of their private insurer, though 55% if they still keep their doctor and hospital but no guarantee of that
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    He that is without sin, cast the first stone!
    We don't want people throwing stones.

    Some sandpaper while Warner is fielding down at third man would be quite funny, however.

    A nasty bully who dished it out for years but doesn't like it when his crimes are thrown back at him.
    I cant see any problem with the booing. They're hugely talented and that will be respected and will define their careers at the end of the day, but they did cheat, they can hardly complain that people bring it up.
    It could be counter productive, both have the ability to get the runs that get Australia over the line in this series. Yes they got found out by the South African broadcasters but the punishments ridiculously harsh. The Aussie authorities regretted that when they hardly won a game when they were out and interest in the team dropped dramatically. Just support for the England team is what I want to hear, non stop boorish abuse of Warne never seemed to work.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.

    If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.

    If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.

    If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.

    As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.

    All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.

    In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
    I think Labour's Brexit policy is right for government and I wouldn't like to see it change to "We'll try to negotiate a better deal and then we promise to campaign against it", which is just daft. But it's poor for a by-election when only the motivated turn out, and not great for a GE. I expect Labour to drop to 4% or so, but I don't think that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).
    In that case it is between you and Corbyn as to who turns the lights out.

    In what has become a binary choice, second vote or no deal, fence sitters will be blown to kingdom come.

    I cannot see any deal which will satisfy the majority from either side now. Any deal will be both too Brexity, or not Brexity enough.
    Labour's policy is a second vote.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.
    If so, why would they vote for the Liberal Democrats who are even more liberal in these matters?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    Hopefully collapsing like Australian batsmen later today.
    Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.
    He that is without sin, cast the first stone!
    We don't want people throwing stones.

    Some sandpaper while Warner is fielding down at third man would be quite funny, however.

    A nasty bully who dished it out for years but doesn't like it when his crimes are thrown back at him.
    An alternative view is one of the most exciting opening batsmen in the world today, hopefully matched in this series by Jason Roy. I find this going on about the ball tampering tedious. Teams have done this since time immemorial and they have served their time.

    I am expecting a close series with a lot of results. Both teams have much better bowling attacks than batsmen. 3-4 days tests would not surprise me at all.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Labour stay at homes will surely be another big factor. They are very good news for Johnson.

    Yes, as I've said before, the next election may be decided by who can get most of their voters out.

    At the moment, the Tories are winning that battle, but you feel they are one mighty cock-up away from losing the advantage.

    It's as well they've got a leader of tact, judgement, skill and experience to make sure that doesn't...ah.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth like Labour

    In your dreams!
    You're right. Sixth would be more like it the way they're collapsing right now.
    The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).

    Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
    LibDems gambling? In places like Builth Wells. What will they say in the chapels?
    The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.
    At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.

    The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
    I could believe that (though it seems a little optimistic), but it does mask the health of each congregation. My limited second-hand knowledge of both mid-Wales and Gwynedd suggests that single-figure, very elderly congregations are the norm. A friend started attending chapel in her early 30s and was practically greeted as the new Messiah!

    (Methodist and Baptist churches are struggling in rural England too, of course.)
    I don't know why you said 'rural.' My experience is that they are struggling badly in urban England too.

    And yes, I would partly agree with your post, although again, it varies. The chapels in Aberystwyth are still pretty full, those in Borth are now pretty houses.
    I come from a long line of Methodists on mother's side, including a methodist minister and missionary. It was big thing in late 1800s, and early part of 20th century. These days though there is real serious decline. Indeed the methodist church at bottom of my road has just merged with another and the vacant building and plot will become, yes you guessed it, flats for private rent.
This discussion has been closed.