Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden back as favourite for the nomination after Harris fails

1356

Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    It is odd that the PM chooses as his catchphrase a description of a famous blunder:

    Forward, the Light Brigade!”
    Was there a man dismayed?
    Not though the soldier knew
    Someone had blundered.
    Theirs not to make reply,
    Theirs not to reason why,
    Theirs but to do and die.
    Into the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred.
    "Now, as the 150th anniversary of the infamous charge approaches, historians are revising their accounts of what every schoolchild knows was a famous military disaster.

    Writing in the October edition of BBC History magazine, a leading academic and author says the Light Brigade helped to lay the foundations for the future success of the British Army by establishing an ideal of heroic and "unthinking obedience", with lasting benefits.

    ..

    The charge occurred during the battle of Balaklava in the Crimean War, when 658 British cavalrymen, acting on a misinterpreted order, rode for more than a mile under heavy fire to attack Russian artillery positions, killed the gunners, then retreated, having lost 110 dead, 180 wounded or taken prisoner and 475 horses killed.

    Yet the charge helped swing the campaign in favour of the British. A few days later, 10,000 British troops held fast against 40,000 Russians at the battle of Inkerman. In the longer term, the habit of obeying orders - which had not been universal in earlier periods - indicated a new ethos of professionalism in the Army."

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/charge-of-the-light-brigade-was-a-military-success-545886.html
    Which is all very well but opening with Burns and Roy, that's really foolhardy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    philiph said:

    Sandpit said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    It’s why Labour need to ditch Corbyn ASAP. Many people don’t like Boris Johnson, but consider him by far the lesser of two evils.
    What I cannot understand about Corbyn is his stubbornness in carrying on and letting the Tories off the hook, when a dynamic fresh Labour leader could wipe the floor with Johnson. Someone else may not have the ideological purity of Corbyn. But they would have the power to make changes that would improve the lives of the many not the few...
    In that case you do not understand Corbyn, and probably not what his beliefs, objectives and political imperitives are.
    It is why I cannot vote for him or his party. I will just vote LD and hope for an even more hung parliament! If they cannot do anything it has to be better than them doing the wrong thing!
    Earlier posts have indicated Parliament is already well hung with Boris and Gove in it.

    However, if true that ruins my Freudian theory about the reason they behave like utter dicks.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    It’s why Labour need to ditch Corbyn ASAP. Many people don’t like Boris Johnson, but consider him by far the lesser of two evils.
    What I cannot understand about Corbyn is his stubbornness in carrying on and letting the Tories off the hook, when a dynamic fresh Labour leader could wipe the floor with Johnson. Someone else may not have the ideological purity of Corbyn. But they would have the power to make changes that would improve the lives of the many not the few...
    They dont have a dynamic fresh leader in waiting and, as is evident from NPs posts, both the members and the leadership want to hang onto the purported purity.
    True but I think Kier Starmer would be better than Corbyn.

    I think Swinson is fresh and dynamic by the way. She is likeable IMO and her TV appearences connect to me as a viewer in a way her rival did not.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    SandraMc said:

    Re; Boris and Carrie marrying. As Sir James Goldsmith said: "When you marry the mistress, it creates a vacancy."

    When you marry your housekeeper it reduces GDP.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Cyclefree said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Boris’s behaviour is par for the course. The mystery is why Carrie should want to shack up with him, knowing his history of serial unfaithfulness to every woman he has ever been with.
    Isn't he, erm, extremely large?

    But, yes, I concur.
    Michael Gove was nicknamed Donkey, according to the new biography. He should have leaked that part instead of the cocaine story.
    Are you sure it was due to his penis size and not a reference to his intellectual capacity?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    geoffw said:

    SandraMc said:

    Re; Boris and Carrie marrying. As Sir James Goldsmith said: "When you marry the mistress, it creates a vacancy."

    When you marry your housekeeper it reduces GDP.
    Why was Zsa Zsa Gabor regarded as the best housekeeper in the world?

    Because every time she divorced, she kept the house.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    Sandpit said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    It’s why Labour need to ditch Corbyn ASAP. Many people don’t like Boris Johnson, but consider him by far the lesser of two evils.
    What I cannot understand about Corbyn is his stubbornness in carrying on and letting the Tories off the hook, when a dynamic fresh Labour leader could wipe the floor with Johnson. Someone else may not have the ideological purity of Corbyn. But they would have the power to make changes that would improve the lives of the many not the few...
    In that case you do not understand Corbyn, and probably not what his beliefs, objectives and political imperitives are.
    It is why I cannot vote for him or his party. I will just vote LD and hope for an even more hung parliament! If they cannot do anything it has to be better than them doing the wrong thing!
    Earlier posts have indicated Parliament is already well hung with Boris and Gove in it.

    However, if true that ruins my Freudian theory about the reason they behave like utter dicks.
    lol - Boris is only ever one step away from a massive cock-up!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Sandpit said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    It’s why Labour need to ditch Corbyn ASAP. Many people don’t like Boris Johnson, but consider him by far the lesser of two evils.
    I would agree with that sentiment. I will be voting LD rather than endorse Johnson and his band of nutters. However if Labour had a leader who was not as thick as pigshit and wanted to turn the UK into a banana republic, then I would even lend them my vote to punish the Conservative Party for becoming UKIP/BNP-lite
    +100

    Voted Con since first eligible election (2001).
    Voted LD in 2017, and at the Euros, and fully expect to do so at next election.

    However, Vince Cable was useless. Do the Lib Dems actually have policies beyond Brexit?
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Cyclefree said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Boris’s behaviour is par for the course. The mystery is why Carrie should want to shack up with him, knowing his history of serial unfaithfulness to every woman he has ever been with.
    I blame the parents.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    Sandpit said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    It’s why Labour need to ditch Corbyn ASAP. Many people don’t like Boris Johnson, but consider him by far the lesser of two evils.
    What I cannot understand about Corbyn is his stubbornness in carrying on and letting the Tories off the hook, when a dynamic fresh Labour leader could wipe the floor with Johnson. Someone else may not have the ideological purity of Corbyn. But they would have the power to make changes that would improve the lives of the many not the few...
    In that case you do not understand Corbyn, and probably not what his beliefs, objectives and political imperitives are.
    It is why I cannot vote for him or his party. I will just vote LD and hope for an even more hung parliament! If they cannot do anything it has to be better than them doing the wrong thing!
    Earlier posts have indicated Parliament is already well hung with Boris and Gove in it.

    However, if true that ruins my Freudian theory about the reason they behave like utter dicks.
    lol - Boris is only ever one step away from a massive cock-up!
    This is true, but with Boris it will always be somebody else's cock up.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    Sandpit said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    It’s why Labour need to ditch Corbyn ASAP. Many people don’t like Boris Johnson, but consider him by far the lesser of two evils.
    I would agree with that sentiment. I will be voting LD rather than endorse Johnson and his band of nutters. However if Labour had a leader who was not as thick as pigshit and wanted to turn the UK into a banana republic, then I would even lend them my vote to punish the Conservative Party for becoming UKIP/BNP-lite
    +100

    Voted Con since first eligible election (2001).
    Voted LD in 2017, and at the Euros, and fully expect to do so at next election.

    However, Vince Cable was useless. Do the Lib Dems actually have policies beyond Brexit?
    They have a policy on almost everything
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    The homoerotics of Conservative supporters are a wonder to behold.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    DavidL said:



    Presumably he is charming and entertaining but that is really her call as a responsible adult, isn't it?

    Some people get off on proximity to wealth, power and influence.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    It’s why Labour need to ditch Corbyn ASAP. Many people don’t like Boris Johnson, but consider him by far the lesser of two evils.
    I would agree with that sentiment. I will be voting LD rather than endorse Johnson and his band of nutters. However if Labour had a leader who was not as thick as pigshit and wanted to turn the UK into a banana republic, then I would even lend them my vote to punish the Conservative Party for becoming UKIP/BNP-lite
    +100

    Voted Con since first eligible election (2001).
    Voted LD in 2017, and at the Euros, and fully expect to do so at next election.

    However, Vince Cable was useless. Do the Lib Dems actually have policies beyond Brexit?
    They have a policy on almost everything
    I’m sure they do.
    None of it has had any media cut through.

    For starters, they need to junk tertiary fees.
    It’s their Clause 4.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    It’s why Labour need to ditch Corbyn ASAP. Many people don’t like Boris Johnson, but consider him by far the lesser of two evils.
    What I cannot understand about Corbyn is his stubbornness in carrying on and letting the Tories off the hook, when a dynamic fresh Labour leader could wipe the floor with Johnson. Someone else may not have the ideological purity of Corbyn. But they would have the power to make changes that would improve the lives of the many not the few...
    They dont have a dynamic fresh leader in waiting and, as is evident from NPs posts, both the members and the leadership want to hang onto the purported purity.
    True but I think Kier Starmer would be better than Corbyn.

    I think Swinson is fresh and dynamic by the way. She is likeable IMO and her TV appearences connect to me as a viewer in a way her rival did not.
    Starmer makes Vince sound interesting
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    geoffw said:

    SandraMc said:

    Re; Boris and Carrie marrying. As Sir James Goldsmith said: "When you marry the mistress, it creates a vacancy."

    When you marry your housekeeper it reduces GDP.
    Yes, but it increases productivity.
  • Tabman said:

    DavidL said:



    Presumably he is charming and entertaining but that is really her call as a responsible adult, isn't it?

    Some people get off on proximity to wealth, power and influence.
    Yes. It's why I'm a Lib Dem for example.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    It is odd that the PM chooses as his catchphrase a description of a famous blunder:

    Forward, the Light Brigade!”
    Was there a man dismayed?
    Not though the soldier knew
    Someone had blundered.
    Theirs not to make reply,
    Theirs not to reason why,
    Theirs but to do and die.
    Into the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred.
    "Now, as the 150th anniversary of the infamous charge approaches, historians are revising their accounts of what every schoolchild knows was a famous military disaster.

    Writing in the October edition of BBC History magazine, a leading academic and author says the Light Brigade helped to lay the foundations for the future success of the British Army by establishing an ideal of heroic and "unthinking obedience", with lasting benefits.

    Yep the sheer lunacy of the First World War. The most unparalleled piece of pointless carnage in human history.

    Academics have to point score, even when they haven't a leg left to stand on. It's the only way they can justify their existence.
    This is satire,right?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    It is odd that the PM chooses as his catchphrase a description of a famous blunder:

    Forward, the Light Brigade!”
    Was there a man dismayed?
    Not though the soldier knew
    Someone had blundered.
    Theirs not to make reply,
    Theirs not to reason why,
    Theirs but to do and die.
    Into the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred.
    "Now, as the 150th anniversary of the infamous charge approaches, historians are revising their accounts of what every schoolchild knows was a famous military disaster.

    Writing in the October edition of BBC History magazine, a leading academic and author says the Light Brigade helped to lay the foundations for the future success of the British Army by establishing an ideal of heroic and "unthinking obedience", with lasting benefits.

    ..

    The charge occurred during the battle of Balaklava in the Crimean War, when 658 British cavalrymen, acting on a misinterpreted order, rode for more than a mile under heavy fire to attack Russian artillery positions, killed the gunners, then retreated, having lost 110 dead, 180 wounded or taken prisoner and 475 horses killed.

    Yet the charge helped swing the campaign in favour of the British. A few days later, 10,000 British troops held fast against 40,000 Russians at the battle of Inkerman. In the longer term, the habit of obeying orders - which had not been universal in earlier periods - indicated a new ethos of professionalism in the Army."

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/charge-of-the-light-brigade-was-a-military-success-545886.html
    Which is all very well but opening with Burns and Roy, that's really foolhardy.
    Maths would suggest the retreat was mostly on foot.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    It’s why Labour need to ditch Corbyn ASAP. Many people don’t like Boris Johnson, but consider him by far the lesser of two evils.
    What I cannot understand about Corbyn is his stubbornness in carrying on and letting the Tories off the hook, when a dynamic fresh Labour leader could wipe the floor with Johnson. Someone else may not have the ideological purity of Corbyn. But they would have the power to make changes that would improve the lives of the many not the few...
    They dont have a dynamic fresh leader in waiting and, as is evident from NPs posts, both the members and the leadership want to hang onto the purported purity.
    True but I think Kier Starmer would be better than Corbyn.

    I think Swinson is fresh and dynamic by the way. She is likeable IMO and her TV appearences connect to me as a viewer in a way her rival did not.
    Starmer makes Vince sound interesting
    A less interesting leader might be just what we need at the moment. Major was intensely boring but he did provide solid dependable leadership - something sadly lacking in Westminster today.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900

    +100

    Voted Con since first eligible election (2001).
    Voted LD in 2017, and at the Euros, and fully expect to do so at next election.

    However, Vince Cable was useless. Do the Lib Dems actually have policies beyond Brexit?

    It's gratifying to see so many considering the LDs as a vote and as thoughtful people confronted with a choice of Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn I can't say I blame them.

    There will of course be a full LD manifesto with a range of policies and programmes. It's hard not to deny the dominance of Brexit as a topic but there are plenty concerned at the latest incarnation of the traditional Conservative spending splurge which will increase borrowing, the deficit and ultimately the debt. Anyone would think Johnson and his Government are trying to buy votes with promises of wheelbarrows full of cash.

    I also understand for the sake of his own political self-preservation Johnson is desperate a No Deal exit from the EU doesn't lead to a full on recession. The unpalatable truth is a significant minority seem willing to eat grass rather than remain in the EU - really, the EU isn't that bad?
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    Tabman said:

    DavidL said:



    Presumably he is charming and entertaining but that is really her call as a responsible adult, isn't it?

    Some people get off on proximity to wealth, power and influence.
    Yes. It's why I'm a Lib Dem for example.
    Clearly an ascetic, then :-)

    How are you, sir?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited August 2019

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    It’s why Labour need to ditch Corbyn ASAP. Many people don’t like Boris Johnson, but consider him by far the lesser of two evils.
    What I cannot understand about Corbyn is his stubbornness in carrying on and letting the Tories off the hook, when a dynamic fresh Labour leader could wipe the floor with Johnson. Someone else may not have the ideological purity of Corbyn. But they would have the power to make changes that would improve the lives of the many not the few...
    They dont have a dynamic fresh leader in waiting and, as is evident from NPs posts, both the members and the leadership want to hang onto the purported purity.
    True but I think Kier Starmer would be better than Corbyn.

    I think Swinson is fresh and dynamic by the way. She is likeable IMO and her TV appearences connect to me as a viewer in a way her rival did not.
    Starmer makes Vince sound interesting
    A less interesting leader might be just what we need at the moment. Major was intensely boring but he did provide solid dependable leadership - something sadly lacking in Westminster today.
    And he isn't seen as from the left.

    Anyhow May was supposed to be dependable and boring.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    stodge said:

    +100

    Voted Con since first eligible election (2001).
    Voted LD in 2017, and at the Euros, and fully expect to do so at next election.

    However, Vince Cable was useless. Do the Lib Dems actually have policies beyond Brexit?

    It's gratifying to see so many considering the LDs as a vote and as thoughtful people confronted with a choice of Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn I can't say I blame them.

    There will of course be a full LD manifesto with a range of policies and programmes. It's hard not to deny the dominance of Brexit as a topic but there are plenty concerned at the latest incarnation of the traditional Conservative spending splurge which will increase borrowing, the deficit and ultimately the debt. Anyone would think Johnson and his Government are trying to buy votes with promises of wheelbarrows full of cash.

    I also understand for the sake of his own political self-preservation Johnson is desperate a No Deal exit from the EU doesn't lead to a full on recession. The unpalatable truth is a significant minority seem willing to eat grass rather than remain in the EU - really, the EU isn't that bad?
    You can never underestimate the intelligence of the great British public ...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    It is odd that the PM chooses as his catchphrase a description of a famous blunder:

    Forward, the Light Brigade!”
    Was there a man dismayed?
    Not though the soldier knew
    Someone had blundered.
    Theirs not to make reply,
    Theirs not to reason why,
    Theirs but to do and die.
    Into the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred.
    "Now, as the 150th anniversary of the infamous charge approaches, historians are revising their accounts of what every schoolchild knows was a famous military disaster.

    Writing in the October edition of BBC History magazine, a leading academic and author says the Light Brigade helped to lay the foundations for the future success of the British Army by establishing an ideal of heroic and "unthinking obedience", with lasting benefits.

    ..

    The charge occurred during the battle of Balaklava in the Crimean War, when 658 British cavalrymen, acting on a misinterpreted order, rode for more than a mile under heavy fire to attack Russian artillery positions, killed the gunners, then retreated, having lost 110 dead, 180 wounded or taken prisoner and 475 horses killed.

    Yet the charge helped swing the campaign in favour of the British. A few days later, 10,000 British troops held fast against 40,000 Russians at the battle of Inkerman. In the longer term, the habit of obeying orders - which had not been universal in earlier periods - indicated a new ethos of professionalism in the Army."

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/charge-of-the-light-brigade-was-a-military-success-545886.html
    Which is all very well but opening with Burns and Roy, that's really foolhardy.
    Maths would suggest the retreat was mostly on foot.
    Perhaps @TGOHF can confirm?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/SamGyimah/status/1156808680559587328

    Early September. Time to bring them down Sam.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    It is odd that the PM chooses as his catchphrase a description of a famous blunder:

    Forward, the Light Brigade!”
    Was there a man dismayed?
    Not though the soldier knew
    Someone had blundered.
    Theirs not to make reply,
    Theirs not to reason why,
    Theirs but to do and die.
    Into the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred.
    "Now, as the 150th anniversary of the infamous charge approaches, historians are revising their accounts of what every schoolchild knows was a famous military disaster.

    Writing in the October edition of BBC History magazine, a leading academic and author says the Light Brigade helped to lay the foundations for the future success of the British Army by establishing an ideal of heroic and "unthinking obedience", with lasting benefits.

    ..

    The charge occurred during the battle of Balaklava in the Crimean War, when 658 British cavalrymen, acting on a misinterpreted order, rode for more than a mile under heavy fire to attack Russian artillery positions, killed the gunners, then retreated, having lost 110 dead, 180 wounded or taken prisoner and 475 horses killed.

    Yet the charge helped swing the campaign in favour of the British. A few days later, 10,000 British troops held fast against 40,000 Russians at the battle of Inkerman. In the longer term, the habit of obeying orders - which had not been universal in earlier periods - indicated a new ethos of professionalism in the Army."

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/charge-of-the-light-brigade-was-a-military-success-545886.html
    Which is all very well but opening with Burns and Roy, that's really foolhardy.
    Maths would suggest the retreat was mostly on foot.
    Perhaps @TGOHF can confirm?
    Maths would also suggest that must be an old article if the 150th anniversary of the Charge of the Light Brigade in 1854 is "approaching". Surely the revisionists have been revised by now. Wasn't one of our number embarking on an MA in military history? Have they reached the Crimea yet?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    IanB2 said:

    <

    And he isn't seen as from the left.

    Anyhow May was supposed to be dependable and boring.

    It's so often the cases parties choose leaders who are the antithesis of their predecessor as though not only are they choosing a new leader they are by so doing rejecting the old leader.

    For the LDs, Ashdown to Kennedy to Campbell to Clegg to Farron to Cable to Swinson represents a pendulum like swing from youth to experience and changes in leadership style.

    For the Conservatives Thatcher to Major to Hague to IDS to Howard to Cameron to May to Johnson - not quite so stark, the Hague/IDS/Howard line more about continuity but in terms of personality and style the change is almost pendulum like.

    For Labour Kinnock to Blair to Brown to Miliband to Corbyn is more of a journey but within that shifts of personality and style and manner.

    If you want to pick the next leader of these parties look at the current leaders and seek out someone who isn't like them at all.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    The ghost of Ozzy's emergency budget has returned to haunt the Boris No Deal.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/01/government-refuses-to-rule-out-emergency-no-deal-brexit-budget
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    edited August 2019
    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1156845545018863617

    The autumn GE will be known by historians as the Burning Lamb Election.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    The ghost of Ozzy's emergency budget has returned to haunt the Boris No Deal.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/01/government-refuses-to-rule-out-emergency-no-deal-brexit-budget

    PF
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Conservatives drifting in the betting on B&R.

    Might just be today's mood on here :wink:
  • DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    It is odd that the PM chooses as his catchphrase a description of a famous blunder:

    Forward, the Light Brigade!”
    Was there a man dismayed?
    Not though the soldier knew
    Someone had blundered.
    Theirs not to make reply,
    Theirs not to reason why,
    Theirs but to do and die.
    Into the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred.
    "Now, as the 150th anniversary of the infamous charge approaches, historians are revising their accounts of what every schoolchild knows was a famous military disaster.

    Writing in the October edition of BBC History magazine, a leading academic and author says the Light Brigade helped to lay the foundations for the future success of the British Army by establishing an ideal of heroic and "unthinking obedience", with lasting benefits.

    ..

    The charge occurred during the battle of Balaklava in the Crimean War, when 658 British cavalrymen, acting on a misinterpreted order, rode for more than a mile under heavy fire to attack Russian artillery positions, killed the gunners, then retreated, having lost 110 dead, 180 wounded or taken prisoner and 475 horses killed.

    Yet the charge helped swing the campaign in favour of the British. A few days later, 10,000 British troops held fast against 40,000 Russians at the battle of Inkerman. In the longer term, the habit of obeying orders - which had not been universal in earlier periods - indicated a new ethos of professionalism in the Army."

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/charge-of-the-light-brigade-was-a-military-success-545886.html
    Which is all very well but opening with Burns and Roy, that's really foolhardy.
    Maths would suggest the retreat was mostly on foot.
    Perhaps @TGOHF can confirm?
    Maths would also suggest that must be an old article if the 150th anniversary of the Charge of the Light Brigade in 1854 is "approaching". Surely the revisionists have been revised by now. Wasn't one of our number embarking on an MA in military history? Have they reached the Crimea yet?
    The "leading academic and author" whose opinion is expressed in the article originated a hoax claiming that Charles Dickens met Fyodor Dostoyevsky..
    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2013/jul/10/man-behind-dickens-dostoevsky-hoax
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    How many hospitals does £6bn buy?
    How many nurses? How many school places? How many council houses? How many bridges? How many traffic easing schemes?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,289
    HYUFD said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    The Tories still lead by 4% over Labour with women under Boris
    Now there's a subsample...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Probably the last time that Jimmy will lead the attack at the start of an Ashes series. Here's hoping he has a good one.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,391


    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM!

    David Cameron's mum was right when she told Jeremy Corbyn to wear a suit, do up his tie and sing the national anthem. It worked for Corbyn, and even Boris seems to have visited his tailor recently. Look at Michael Foot's duffle coat for another demonstration that appearances matter.
    Why then does Mr Johnson deliberately engineer the appearance of Ken Dodd?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Lewes. Green & LibDem alliance, or split?

    https://twitter.com/CllrJohnnyDenis/status/1156572390614327301
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited August 2019

    Conservatives drifting in the betting on B&R.

    Might just be today's mood on here :wink:

    Betting markets like financial ones tend to overshoot then correct. Hence the £ this week (tho it's now sinking again). TSE spotted that the Tories have a greater than 3% chance as the BXP Ltd. balloon deflates, especially with the geography of the seat making it hard to call. Thus punters lumped on until the implied 20% chance seemed too high, and people who backed at long odds cashed in
  • How many hospitals does £6bn buy?
    How many nurses? How many school places? How many council houses? How many bridges? How many traffic easing schemes?

    Under PFI, less than 2

    "The biggest PFI deal, considered widely to have been a mistake, was to build new hospitals on the sites of two old ones – the Royal London in Whitechapel, east London, and St Bartholomew’s two miles away.
    The rebuild cost £1.1 billion but, under the terms of the PFI, the final cost will be more than £7 billion with the Barts Health NHS Trust making payments until 2049."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/nhs/11748960/The-PFI-hospitals-costing-NHS-2bn-every-year.html
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited August 2019
    IanB2 said:

    [The LibdDems] have a policy on almost everything

    Yes, unfortunately. Some of us might be forced to vote LibDem despite that.
  • When Warner is on a 150, I think England are going to be regretting that missed opportunity....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Now Norman has moved on, they may well be right. The Greens don't have too many good prospects and I would hope the LDs are generous enough to give them a free run in many of them. The IOW is another example.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    The "leading academic and author" whose opinion is expressed in the article originated a hoax claiming that Charles Dickens met Fyodor Dostoyevsky..
    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2013/jul/10/man-behind-dickens-dostoevsky-hoax

    That's right up there with the theory that the singer from Neutral Milk Hotel traveled back in time, rescued Anne Frank and then married her.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    How many hospitals does £6bn buy?
    How many nurses? How many school places? How many council houses? How many bridges? How many traffic easing schemes?

    Under PFI, less than 2

    "The biggest PFI deal, considered widely to have been a mistake, was to build new hospitals on the sites of two old ones – the Royal London in Whitechapel, east London, and St Bartholomew’s two miles away.
    The rebuild cost £1.1 billion but, under the terms of the PFI, the final cost will be more than £7 billion with the Barts Health NHS Trust making payments until 2049."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/nhs/11748960/The-PFI-hospitals-costing-NHS-2bn-every-year.html
    PFI.
    The Ponzi scheme of public sector financing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    When Warner is on a 150, I think England are going to be regretting that missed opportunity....

    I thought Broad sought reviews on pretty much everything. Disappointing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    IanB2 said:

    [The LibdDems] have a policy on almost everything

    Yes, unfortunately. Some of us might be forced to vote LibDem despite that.
    It's mostly all harmless managerial stuff of good sense but minimal appeal.
  • Warner already cheating....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    IanB2 said:

    [The LibdDems] have a policy on almost everything

    Yes, unfortunately. Some of us might be forced to vote LibDem despite that.
    Your seat couldn't really be won by Labour unless they were on track for ~ 500+ seats iirc. OTOH Mine won't be won by the Tories unless they're on for a big majority - I think in either case the argument to vote Tory to keep Labour out is lessened..
    I know you're still likely undecided, but assuming Boris' pitch is "no deal" would you be more likely to vote Tory if you were in a key Lab-Tory marginal in order to keep Corbyn out or not ?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    IanB2 said:

    Now Norman has moved on, they may well be right. The Greens don't have too many good prospects and I would hope the LDs are generous enough to give them a free run in many of them. The IOW is another example.
    I'd have thought that the LibDems would have a much better chance there. Yes, there's a Greenish-type of vote in Lewes itself, and some university-employed voters, but there's also a rural and retiree hinterland where I'd have thought the Greens would be a step too far but the LibDems could do OK.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Sandpit said:

    I don't have a problem with an unmarried couple living in Downing Street. Who on earth would? However, a married man in his 50s with at least five kids walking out on his family to live with a woman over 20 years younger than him is going to raise a few eyebrows even in this most liberal of ages. I guess members of the establishment elite have been doing it since time immemorial, though. They get away with stuff others can't.

    Exactly. This will damage Boris with women voters particularly. My wife, who is not very interested in politics and thought Theresa May was trying to make the best of a difficult situation, thinks Boris is a disgusting individual not fit to be PM because of his attitude to women. And I doubt she is alone in taking that view.
    I do think Boris has a poor reception amoung some women voters i know. One of which called him a "scruffy bastard" on he day he became PM! It made me laugh that reaction! This person has until this year voted Tory in every election. I dont think they will vote Tory again whilst Boris is PM! The LD are going to pick up some serious votes from people like this who cannot stand Johnson and I cannot see Labour voters suddenly voting Tory to replace these losses from the Tory ranks...
    It’s why Labour need to ditch Corbyn ASAP. Many people don’t like Boris Johnson, but consider him by far the lesser of two evils.
    What I cannot understand about Corbyn is his stubbornness in carrying on and letting the Tories off the hook, when a dynamic fresh Labour leader could wipe the floor with Johnson. Someone else may not have the ideological purity of Corbyn. But they would have the power to make changes that would improve the lives of the many not the few...
    Controlling the Labour party is the far left's priority. Defeating the Tories is a secondary concern.
    https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/1153628285215137792
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    [The LibdDems] have a policy on almost everything

    Yes, unfortunately. Some of us might be forced to vote LibDem despite that.
    It's mostly all harmless managerial stuff of good sense but minimal appeal.
    I hope they’ve stockpiled enough sandals for all the newly minted LDs in the event of No Deal.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Despite the lack of any wicket, England seem to be well on top this morning. We'll want a wicket or two before lunch though to show for it.
  • And now they review.....one that doesn't look out...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Pulpstar said:

    Your seat couldn't really be won by Labour unless they were on track for ~ 500+ seats iirc. OTOH Mine won't be won by the Tories unless they're on for a big majority - I think in either case the argument to vote Tory to keep Labour out is lessened..
    I know you're still likely undecided, but assuming Boris' pitch is "no deal" would you be more likely to vote Tory if you were in a key Lab-Tory marginal in order to keep Corbyn out or not ?

    I think it's unlikely that I'd vote Tory in any election where the deliberate policy was to crash us out. I wouldn't want the (hopefully metaphorical) blood on my hands. It would, however, depend on the individual candidate's position, and on the attractions of otherwise of the alternatives.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    IanB2 said:

    Now Norman has moved on, they may well be right. The Greens don't have too many good prospects and I would hope the LDs are generous enough to give them a free run in many of them. The IOW is another example.
    I'd have thought that the LibDems would have a much better chance there. Yes, there's a Greenish-type of vote in Lewes itself, and some university-employed voters, but there's also a rural and retiree hinterland where I'd have thought the Greens would be a step too far but the LibDems could do OK.
    Nevertheless as an LD myself I can see that they need to be offered more than a clear run in Brighton.
  • England about as good at reviews as Roger Federer.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Warner gone.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Crowd at Birmingham sound like they've been drinking all day. But is only 11am.

    I am old enough to remember cricket being gentile. :smiley:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    edited August 2019

    How many hospitals does £6bn buy?
    How many nurses? How many school places? How many council houses? How many bridges? How many traffic easing schemes?

    It all seems so crazy and the chasm between leave and remain is deepening by the day

    I read a report that Boris meeting his opponents in Sturgeon and Drakeford plus NI is only serving to entrench his opposition but that they were not going to be responsive to anything he said anyway.

    Boris and his advisers see this as a fight against the establishment and we can see on this forum how much anger he is attracting but when considered that anger has always been there over leaving the EU

    I have little doubt the Lib Dems will win B & R and a lot will be made of it by the political establishment but the political polling and trends over the next few weeks should reveal if all the anger and negative news on no deal planning and falling currency is actually having an effect or does the public want Boris just to get out on the 31st October and his support continues or even improves.

    There is no doubt at all that those who want to remain must be furious with Corbyn who in a large part has aided and abetted the no deal scenario by not backing remain from the beginning

    As far as losing a majority I think Boris is well aware that September and October will be very rocky and he is ready to call a GE and challenge Corbyn to vote for it. Indeed I think that many mps may be threatening all kinds of things in the Autumn but are they willing to lose their careers as many would

    And before anyone says I am a cheerleader for Boris, he scares the socks off me and as I have repeatedly said on a no deal outcome I resign from the party
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited August 2019
    LOL....it wasn't out....serves the cheating convict right.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    It is odd that the PM chooses as his catchphrase a description of a famous blunder:

    Forward, the Light Brigade!”
    Was there a man dismayed?
    Not though the soldier knew
    Someone had blundered.
    Theirs not to make reply,
    Theirs not to reason why,
    Theirs but to do and die.
    Into the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred.
    "Now, as the 150th anniversary of the infamous charge approaches, historians are revising their accounts of what every schoolchild knows was a famous military disaster.

    Writing in the October edition of BBC History magazine, a leading academic and author says the Light Brigade helped to lay the foundations for the future success of the British Army by establishing an ideal of heroic and "unthinking obedience", with lasting benefits.

    ..

    The charge occurred during the battle of Balaklava in the Crimean War, when 658 British cavalrymen, acting on a misinterpreted order, rode for more than a mile under heavy fire to attack Russian artillery positions, killed the gunners, then retreated, having lost 110 dead, 180 wounded or taken prisoner and 475 horses killed.

    Yet the charge helped swing the campaign in favour of the British. A few days later, 10,000 British troops held fast against 40,000 Russians at the battle of Inkerman. In the longer term, the habit of obeying orders - which had not been universal in earlier periods - indicated a new ethos of professionalism in the Army."

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/charge-of-the-light-brigade-was-a-military-success-545886.html
    Which is all very well but opening with Burns and Roy, that's really foolhardy.
    Maths would suggest the retreat was mostly on foot.
    Perhaps @TGOHF can confirm?
    Maths would also suggest that must be an old article if the 150th anniversary of the Charge of the Light Brigade in 1854 is "approaching". Surely the revisionists have been revised by now. Wasn't one of our number embarking on an MA in military history? Have they reached the Crimea yet?
    Probably detained in Turkey for looking a bit terroristy. Can't be too careful with Brits turning up in hot spots.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    England about as good at reviews as Roger Federer.

    So is Aus by the looks of things.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Veepstakes - if we think it is Biden v Warren, what do we think Veep picks are?

    I think Biden wants a WoC, that could have been Kamala before the attack on bussing but I think not afterwards. Abrams was touted by Biden folks before he even entered the race (she denied being asked and seemed to be upset by the presumption, but she would be a good pick). Maybe Julian Castro, but I do think the ticket will have a woman on it.

    Warren, I dunno, probs a white dude. I'm thinking Mayor Pete; he's trying to straddle the left v centre and is young and enthusiastic and able to talk god and local areas etc. I think he'd be willing to be Warren's Veep and it could create a "unity" ticket. It would also rake in the cash (Buttigeig hasn't polled or performed well, but he is raising a lot of money).

    There is still a part of me that thinks Pence is going to be off the ticket; Trump has shored up the evangelical base, he doesn't need to reassure them anymore. He needs to appeal to white suburban women, and there is a person very close to his heart that would be great at capturing them. I would not be surprised to see Trump / Trump 2020 ticket.
  • How many hospitals does £6bn buy?
    How many nurses? How many school places? How many council houses? How many bridges? How many traffic easing schemes?

    It all seems so crazy and the chasm between leave and remain is deepening by the day

    I read a report that Boris meeting his opponents in Sturgeon and Drakeford plus NI is only serving to entrench his opposition but that they were not going to be responsive to anything he said anyway.

    Boris and his advisers see this as a fight against the establishment and we can see on this forum how much anger he is attracting but when considered that anger has always been there over leaving the EU

    I have little doubt the Lib Dems will win B & R and a lot will be made of it by the political establishment but the political polling and trends over the next few weeks should reveal if all the anger and negative news on no deal planning and falling currency is actually having an effect or does the public want Boris just to get out on the 31st October and his support continues or even improves.

    There is no doubt at all that those who want to remain must be furious with Corbyn who in a large part has aided and abetted the no deal scenario by not backing remain from the beginning

    As far as losing a majority I think Boris is well aware that September and October will be very rocky and he is ready to call a GE and challenge Corbyn to vote for it. Indeed I think that many mps may be threatening all kinds of things in the Autumn but are they willing to lose their careers as many would

    And before anyone says I am a cheerleader for Boris, he scares the socks off me and as I have repeatedly said on a no deal outcome I resign from the party

    The PM is the political establishment. The political establishment wants a No Deal Brexit.

  • Crowd at Birmingham sound like they've been drinking all day. But is only 11am.

    I am old enough to remember cricket being gentile. :smiley:

    I am old enough to know you walk when you know you hit it.

    Warner true to form
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    How many hospitals does £6bn buy?
    How many nurses? How many school places? How many council houses? How many bridges? How many traffic easing schemes?

    It all seems so crazy and the chasm between leave and remain is deepening by the day

    I read a report that Boris meeting his opponents in Sturgeon and Drakeford plus NI is only serving to entrench his opposition but that they were not going to be responsive to anything he said anyway.

    Boris and his advisers see this as a fight against the establishment and we can see on this forum how much anger he is attracting but when considered that anger has always been there over leaving the EU

    I have little doubt the Lib Dems will win B & R and a lot will be made of it by the political establishment but the political polling and trends over the next few weeks should reveal if all the anger and negative news on no deal planning and falling currency is actually having an effect or does the public want Boris just to get out on the 31st October and his support continues or even improves.

    There is no doubt at all that those who want to remain must be furious with Corbyn who in a large part has aided and abetted the no deal scenario by not backing remain from the beginning

    As far as losing a majority I think Boris is well aware that September and October will be very rocky and he is ready to call a GE and challenge Corbyn to vote for it. Indeed I think that many mps may be threatening all kinds of things in the Autumn but are they willing to lose their careers as many would

    And before anyone says I am a cheerleader for Boris, he scares the socks off me and as I have repeatedly said on a no deal outcome I resign from the party

    The PM is the political establishment. The political establishment wants a No Deal Brexit.

    Half of the establishment.
    The libertarian side with considerable stocks of non-pound assets.
  • How many hospitals does £6bn buy?
    How many nurses? How many school places? How many council houses? How many bridges? How many traffic easing schemes?

    It all seems so crazy and the chasm between leave and remain is deepening by the day

    I read a report that Boris meeting his opponents in Sturgeon and Drakeford plus NI is only serving to entrench his opposition but that they were not going to be responsive to anything he said anyway.

    Boris and his advisers see this as a fight against the establishment and we can see on this forum how much anger he is attracting but when considered that anger has always been there over leaving the EU

    I have little doubt the Lib Dems will win B & R and a lot will be made of it by the political establishment but the political polling and trends over the next few weeks should reveal if all the anger and negative news on no deal planning and falling currency is actually having an effect or does the public want Boris just to get out on the 31st October and his support continues or even improves.

    There is no doubt at all that those who want to remain must be furious with Corbyn who in a large part has aided and abetted the no deal scenario by not backing remain from the beginning

    As far as losing a majority I think Boris is well aware that September and October will be very rocky and he is ready to call a GE and challenge Corbyn to vote for it. Indeed I think that many mps may be threatening all kinds of things in the Autumn but are they willing to lose their careers as many would

    And before anyone says I am a cheerleader for Boris, he scares the socks off me and as I have repeatedly said on a no deal outcome I resign from the party

    The PM is the political establishment. The political establishment wants a No Deal Brexit.

    75% of mps want remain as does the media and vested interests.

    That is the establishment but do not misunderstand me, I want a fair deal as per TM deal.

    I totally reject no deal
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534

    IanB2 said:

    Now Norman has moved on, they may well be right. The Greens don't have too many good prospects and I would hope the LDs are generous enough to give them a free run in many of them. The IOW is another example.
    I'd have thought that the LibDems would have a much better chance there. Yes, there's a Greenish-type of vote in Lewes itself, and some university-employed voters, but there's also a rural and retiree hinterland where I'd have thought the Greens would be a step too far but the LibDems could do OK.
    While politics nerds like us know that the Greens are essentially Corbynite in policy terms (to the point that I don't get why they split the vote in Labour marginals), I know quite a few Tories who are willing to vote Green but not LibDem. In non-urban seats they see the LibDems as the arch-rivals, but the Greens as harmless anti-Brexit tree-huggers. It'd be interesting to see some polling on this for supporters of the main parties - "Would you consider voting for LibDems? For Greens?" I suspect the Greens may be surprisingly transfer-friendly.
  • Scott_P said:
    If he is so popular it does not matter then.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited August 2019
    148grss said:

    Veepstakes - if we think it is Biden v Warren, what do we think Veep picks are?

    I think Biden wants a WoC, that could have been Kamala before the attack on bussing but I think not afterwards. Abrams was touted by Biden folks before he even entered the race (she denied being asked and seemed to be upset by the presumption, but she would be a good pick). Maybe Julian Castro, but I do think the ticket will have a woman on it.

    Warren, I dunno, probs a white dude. I'm thinking Mayor Pete; he's trying to straddle the left v centre and is young and enthusiastic and able to talk god and local areas etc. I think he'd be willing to be Warren's Veep and it could create a "unity" ticket. It would also rake in the cash (Buttigeig hasn't polled or performed well, but he is raising a lot of money).

    There is still a part of me that thinks Pence is going to be off the ticket; Trump has shored up the evangelical base, he doesn't need to reassure them anymore. He needs to appeal to white suburban women, and there is a person very close to his heart that would be great at capturing them. I would not be surprised to see Trump / Trump 2020 ticket.

    Could either Mr or Mrs Obama be a viable Biden VP candidate, Barrack is held in high regard still and isn't constitutionally barred from being VP aiui. Michelle might also potentially be an option.
    A ticket with Obama and Biden on has won before !

    As for Warren, she'd want a moderate I assume. Mayor Pete may well make sense.
  • 17 for 2
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900

    Lewes. Green & LibDem alliance, or split?

    Lewes is interesting and will be a real test of any "progressive alliance". As we all know, it was an LD seat held by Norman Baker from 1997 to 2015 and he only lost it by a thousand votes or so to Maria Caulfield - an interesting counterfactual would have been, had Baker survived, whether he would have stood for the LD leadership against Tim Farron.

    The local elections for Lewes Council this May were much better for the Greens who won 6 seats and Labour who won 3 and poor for the LDs who lost 4. I don't know the local circumstances or personalities - the Greens stood aside in 2017 but the LDs lost ground to Caulfield but she's far from secure.

    The Greens have a point on current polling. - perhaps they could offer to stand aside in Eastbourne.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    How many hospitals does £6bn buy?
    How many nurses? How many school places? How many council houses? How many bridges? How many traffic easing schemes?

    It all seems so crazy and the chasm between leave and remain is deepening by the day

    I read a report that Boris meeting his opponents in Sturgeon and Drakeford plus NI is only serving to entrench his opposition but that they were not going to be responsive to anything he said anyway.

    Boris and his advisers see this as a fight against the establishment and we can see on this forum how much anger he is attracting but when considered that anger has always been there over leaving the EU

    I have little doubt the Lib Dems will win B & R and a lot will be made of it by the political establishment but the political polling and trends over the next few weeks should reveal if all the anger and negative news on no deal planning and falling currency is actually having an effect or does the public want Boris just to get out on the 31st October and his support continues or even improves.

    There is no doubt at all that those who want to remain must be furious with Corbyn who in a large part has aided and abetted the no deal scenario by not backing remain from the beginning

    As far as losing a majority I think Boris is well aware that September and October will be very rocky and he is ready to call a GE and challenge Corbyn to vote for it. Indeed I think that many mps may be threatening all kinds of things in the Autumn but are they willing to lose their careers as many would

    And before anyone says I am a cheerleader for Boris, he scares the socks off me and as I have repeatedly said on a no deal outcome I resign from the party

    The PM is the political establishment. The political establishment wants a No Deal Brexit.

    75% of mps want remain as does the media and vested interests.

    That is the establishment but do not misunderstand me, I want a fair deal as per TM deal.

    I totally reject no deal
    I’d argue that the media are pro-Brexit.
    Only the Guardian and the FT are anti-Brexit.

    The BBC (in terms of broadcast output) is neither pro or remain, but because it provides balanced “space” to utter conmen and charlatans, tends to be pro-Brexit in its effect.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Come on Australia, 60 to beat...
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Pulpstar said:

    148grss said:

    Veepstakes - if we think it is Biden v Warren, what do we think Veep picks are?

    I think Biden wants a WoC, that could have been Kamala before the attack on bussing but I think not afterwards. Abrams was touted by Biden folks before he even entered the race (she denied being asked and seemed to be upset by the presumption, but she would be a good pick). Maybe Julian Castro, but I do think the ticket will have a woman on it.

    Warren, I dunno, probs a white dude. I'm thinking Mayor Pete; he's trying to straddle the left v centre and is young and enthusiastic and able to talk god and local areas etc. I think he'd be willing to be Warren's Veep and it could create a "unity" ticket. It would also rake in the cash (Buttigeig hasn't polled or performed well, but he is raising a lot of money).

    There is still a part of me that thinks Pence is going to be off the ticket; Trump has shored up the evangelical base, he doesn't need to reassure them anymore. He needs to appeal to white suburban women, and there is a person very close to his heart that would be great at capturing them. I would not be surprised to see Trump / Trump 2020 ticket.

    Could either Mr or Mrs Obama be a viable Biden VP candidate, Barrack is held in high regard still and isn't constitutionally barred from being VP aiui. Michelle might also potentially be an option.
    A ticket with Obama and Biden on has won before !

    As for Warren, she'd want a moderate I assume. Mayor Pete may well make sense.
    Neither Obama seem particularly interested in high office again. If Michelle wanted that life she could be winning the primary now, practically unopposed.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798

    Crowd at Birmingham sound like they've been drinking all day. But is only 11am.

    I am old enough to remember cricket being gentile. :smiley:

    Antisemitism alert!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    IanB2 said:

    Conservatives drifting in the betting on B&R.

    Might just be today's mood on here :wink:

    Betting markets like financial ones tend to overshoot then correct. Hence the £ this week (tho it's now sinking again). TSE spotted that the Tories have a greater than 3% chance as the BXP Ltd. balloon deflates, especially with the geography of the seat making it hard to call. Thus punters lumped on until the implied 20% chance seemed too high, and people who backed at long odds cashed in
    Yeah but we're not just talking about spread betting where people can cash out. The Tories are drifting on fixed odds.

    I don't doubt that TSE was right that the implied 3% chance was 'value' but that doesn't mean it will win anything. Personally I think if you took that bet on fixed odds you were chucking money down the drain. We shall see.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    Crowd at Birmingham sound like they've been drinking all day. But is only 11am.

    I am old enough to remember cricket being gentile. :smiley:

    Gentile ?
  • How many hospitals does £6bn buy?
    How many nurses? How many school places? How many council houses? How many bridges? How many traffic easing schemes?

    It all seems so crazy and the chasm between leave and remain is deepening by the day

    I read a report that Boris meeting his opponents in Sturgeon and Drakeford plus NI is only serving to entrench his opposition but that they were not going to be responsive to anything he said anyway.

    Boris and his advisers see this as a fight against the establishment and we can see on this forum how much anger he is attracting but when considered that anger has always been there over leaving the EU

    I have little doubt the Lib Dems will win B & R and a lot will be made of it by the political establishment but the political polling and trends over the next few weeks should reveal if all the anger and negative news on no deal planning and falling currency is actually having an effect or does the public want Boris just to get out on the 31st October and his support continues or even improves.

    There is no doubt at all that those who want to remain must be furious with Corbyn who in a large part has aided and abetted the no deal scenario by not backing remain from the beginning

    As far as losing a majority I think Boris is well aware that September and October will be very rocky and he is ready to call a GE and challenge Corbyn to vote for it. Indeed I think that many mps may be threatening all kinds of things in the Autumn but are they willing to lose their careers as many would

    And before anyone says I am a cheerleader for Boris, he scares the socks off me and as I have repeatedly said on a no deal outcome I resign from the party

    The PM is the political establishment. The political establishment wants a No Deal Brexit.

    75% of mps want remain as does the media and vested interests.

    That is the establishment but do not misunderstand me, I want a fair deal as per TM deal.

    I totally reject no deal
    I’d argue that the media are pro-Brexit.
    Only the Guardian and the FT are anti-Brexit.

    The BBC (in terms of broadcast output) is neither pro or remain, but because it provides balanced “space” to utter conmen and charlatans, tends to be pro-Brexit in its effect.
    I don't agree but then we come from different viewpoints

    Though I think you agree with me that Corbyn and his associates are an utter disaster for brexit and labour. To be fair if labour were led by anyone reasonably sensible it would change the political climate in an instant
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    How many hospitals does £6bn buy?
    How many nurses? How many school places? How many council houses? How many bridges? How many traffic easing schemes?

    It all seems so crazy and the chasm between leave and remain is deepening by the day

    I read a report that Boris meeting his opponents in Sturgeon and Drakeford plus NI is only serving to entrench his opposition but that they were not going to be responsive to anything he said anyway.

    Boris and his advisers see this as a fight against the establishment and we can see on this forum how much anger he is attracting but when considered that anger has always been there over leaving the EU

    I have little doubt the Lib Dems will win B & R and a lot will be made of it by the political establishment but the political polling and trends over the next few weeks should reveal if all the anger and negative news on no deal planning and falling currency is actually having an effect or does the public want Boris just to get out on the 31st October and his support continues or even improves.

    There is no doubt at all that those who want to remain must be furious with Corbyn who in a large part has aided and abetted the no deal scenario by not backing remain from the beginning

    As far as losing a majority I think Boris is well aware that September and October will be very rocky and he is ready to call a GE and challenge Corbyn to vote for it. Indeed I think that many mps may be threatening all kinds of things in the Autumn but are they willing to lose their careers as many would

    And before anyone says I am a cheerleader for Boris, he scares the socks off me and as I have repeatedly said on a no deal outcome I resign from the party

    The PM is the political establishment. The political establishment wants a No Deal Brexit.

    75% of mps want remain as does the media and vested interests.

    That is the establishment but do not misunderstand me, I want a fair deal as per TM deal.

    I totally reject no deal
    Does the media include Sun, Mail, and Express? Because they are hiding their Remainery very skilfully.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    The Greens need to be reasonable.
    They should limit their price to less than 10 free runs (someone once identified 6 winnable seats - Lewes was not one of them), and the promise of PR.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    edited August 2019
    Wasn't Bancroft the one saying the Aussies have no fear of Birmingham ?


    Well, Paine was.

    https://www.cricket.com.au/news/edgbaston-holds-on-fear-for-ashes-rivals-england-australia-first-test-joe-root-tim-paine/2019-08-01
    ...Paine does not rate Edgbaston anywhere near the top of his list of the most threatening venues around the world.

    "I could name you 15," Paine told reporters on Wednesday when asked if there is a more ground intimidating in world cricket.

    "England haven't lost here in how long? I don’t even know, I haven't looked at it, it doesn't concern us at all.

    "I know a lot of the times when teams come to Australia and they have to go to the Gabba or the WACA it plays on their mind.

    "I've seen it work in reverse. It doesn't affect us....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    17 for 2

    That's bad news. Steve Smith at the crease looking to make 240. Probably get it as well.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    Any word from B&R on turnout? I guess it is hard to assess. Little movement today in the betting.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Crowd at Birmingham sound like they've been drinking all day. But is only 11am.

    I am old enough to remember cricket being gentile. :smiley:

    Antisemitism alert!
    To give him his Jew, I think it was just a typo.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    This is a new one. A separate SCon party would allow the Conservatives to bring in the DUP on the same terms as a unionist alliance.

    https://twitter.com/conhome/status/1156580476590706692?s=21
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited August 2019

    IanB2 said:

    Conservatives drifting in the betting on B&R.

    Might just be today's mood on here :wink:

    Betting markets like financial ones tend to overshoot then correct. Hence the £ this week (tho it's now sinking again). TSE spotted that the Tories have a greater than 3% chance as the BXP Ltd. balloon deflates, especially with the geography of the seat making it hard to call. Thus punters lumped on until the implied 20% chance seemed too high, and people who backed at long odds cashed in
    Yeah but we're not just talking about spread betting where people can cash out. The Tories are drifting on fixed odds.

    I don't doubt that TSE was right that the implied 3% chance was 'value' but that doesn't mean it will win anything. Personally I think if you took that bet on fixed odds you were chucking money down the drain. We shall see.
    You're wrong about this, and here's why

    You can "cash out" by laying the Tories at a lower price than your back. Indeed spread betting you're often locked in as Sporting Index often "suspend" the markets.
    Betfair has the annoying premium charge but 25-1 would never have been offered at a regular bookies on the Tories so backing on Betfair does allow you to quite literally "cash in".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    ydoethur said:

    17 for 2

    That's bad news. Steve Smith at the crease looking to make 240. Probably get it as well.
    I'd forgotten Smith. We're doomed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    And some people think my puns are bad:

    'The noise is ramping up around Edgbaston, it's a Bears pit out there.'
  • dixiedean said:

    How many hospitals does £6bn buy?
    How many nurses? How many school places? How many council houses? How many bridges? How many traffic easing schemes?

    It all seems so crazy and the chasm between leave and remain is deepening by the day

    I read a report that Boris meeting his opponents in Sturgeon and Drakeford plus NI is only serving to entrench his opposition but that they were not going to be responsive to anything he said anyway.

    Boris and his advisers see this as a fight against the establishment and we can see on this forum how much anger he is attracting but when considered that anger has always been there over leaving the EU

    I have little doubt the Lib Dems will win B & R and a lot will be made of it by the political establishment but the political polling and trends over the next few weeks should reveal if all the anger and negative news on no deal planning and falling currency is actually having an effect or does the public want Boris just to get out on the 31st October and his support continues or even improves.

    There is no doubt at all that those who want to remain must be furious with Corbyn who in a large part has aided and abetted the no deal scenario by not backing remain from the beginning

    As far as losing a majority I think Boris is well aware that September and October will be very rocky and he is ready to call a GE and challenge Corbyn to vote for it. Indeed I think that many mps may be threatening all kinds of things in the Autumn but are they willing to lose their careers as many would

    And before anyone says I am a cheerleader for Boris, he scares the socks off me and as I have repeatedly said on a no deal outcome I resign from the party

    The PM is the political establishment. The political establishment wants a No Deal Brexit.

    75% of mps want remain as does the media and vested interests.

    That is the establishment but do not misunderstand me, I want a fair deal as per TM deal.

    I totally reject no deal
    Does the media include Sun, Mail, and Express? Because they are hiding their Remainery very skilfully.
    These days it is the broadcast media who have a predominant role though the mail is successful on line
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    ydoethur said:

    And some people think my puns are bad:

    'The noise is ramping up around Edgbaston, it's a Bears pit out there.'

    Surely it doesn't smell that bad ?
This discussion has been closed.