Remember a 40% vote share for the Liberal Democrats achieves the following:
1) The end of Boris Johnson as Conservative leader. 2) The end of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader. 3) Making Nigel Farage an irrelevance.
I'd strongly disagree on 3, 1 and 2 highly likely mind.
Is it likely? Have I missed a poll ;-) It would in any case depend on how the other 60% split, by party and regionally. Don't you just love FPTP. I have my doubts about any of the existing seat projections tools being accurate. They are good for two or even three party battles - but four or four and a half? I think probably not.
If anything were to make me a Corbynista, it would be the embarrassing and pitiful grovelling and arse-licking towards the US which the British politicians, particularly in the Tory party, indulge in.
I have a lot of time for the US. But they are not always right or sensible or wise. And they act in their own interests, not our. Always have done. Always will. Long past the time for us to realise this and to stop this childish desire to be the the US’s best friend in a way which demeans us. The way we behave is little better than bending over and holding our ankles.
It is both pathetic and humiliating.
A pro-Trump Johnson could well revive the 2017 Labour coalition.
Under a different leader, yes. Under Corbyn, No. He carries too much baggage on anti-semitism, Brexit and his past dalliances with Hamas etc to pull any sort of coalition together
Been too busy to follow politics but how can anyone think Darroch's position is/was tenable?! He had to walk. You can't get busted badmouthing the president of the country you are serving in and expect to keep the chief diplomatic role.
Resign was the only practical thing he could do.
Do you really think the purpose of Ambassadors is to report back rose-tinted platitudes about their host government? Every ambassador in the US from all countries (save perhaps Russia) will have been sending similar thoughts to their home governments.
Of course not, but those opinions need to be deniable. In any case, I presume he hasn't resigned from his job, merely from his posting.
It also plays very well for remain. Brexit Britain = licking Trump's hindquarters.
Indeed.
"If you want a vision of the future, Winston, imagine kissing the rancid buttocks of a corpulent septuagenarian and eating chlorinated chicken ... FOREVER."
I would also say that whoever leaked this probably agreed with the Ambassadors assessment of Trump and was happy to see it more widely publicised.
Unlikely . The leak was designed to get rid of the ambassador as they knew it would cause a massive problem for the government. What was said in the leak was hardly a shock , most sane people would agree .
The Ambassador was already going. He was due to retire and due to be replaced and that had already been announced.
Why cause a major security breach, risk a prison sentence, embarrass the government, embarrass the President just to get rid of an Ambassador a couple of months before he was due to be replaced anyway? It doesn't make any sense.
Tory members voting for this man should be ashamed of themselves.
I voted neither - pleased with my decision
Boris will have lost a lot today no matter what his supporters say
Unless Boris (or friends of Boris) turns out to be the leaker I'm still unsure why Boris is getting the blame for Kim resinging?
Kim was done for the moment the leak happened. If anything Boris was the only one facing up to the reality of the situation and even then he didn't actually call on him to resign.
He is getting the blame for not backing our top diplomat who had done nothing wrong. Getting blamed for his resignation is not the same thing.
It also plays very well for remain. Brexit Britain = licking Trump's hindquarters.
Indeed.
"If you want a vision of the future, Winston, imagine kissing the rancid buttocks of a corpulent septuagenarian and eating chlorinated chicken ... FOREVER."
Imagine if we had to wash down chlorinated chicken with chlorinated tap water . .
Boris is a bully. And like all bullies folds like a wet napkin when bullied himself. It wouldn't have occurred to him to stand up for Britain against Trump, it's not what bullies do.
If anything were to make me a Corbynista, it would be the embarrassing and pitiful grovelling and arse-licking towards the US which the British politicians, particularly in the Tory party, indulge in.
I have a lot of time for the US. But they are not always right or sensible or wise. And they act in their own interests, not our. Always have done. Always will. Long past the time for us to realise this and to stop this childish desire to be the the US’s best friend in a way which demeans us. The way we behave is little better than bending over and holding our ankles.
It is both pathetic and humiliating.
A pro-Trump Johnson could well revive the 2017 Labour coalition.
No, as Boris wins over some 2017 Labour Leave voters as Ashcroft's poll showed yesterday while more Remainers vote LD or Green
If anything were to make me a Corbynista, it would be the embarrassing and pitiful grovelling and arse-licking towards the US which the British politicians, particularly in the Tory party, indulge in.
I have a lot of time for the US. But they are not always right or sensible or wise. And they act in their own interests, not our. Always have done. Always will. Long past the time for us to realise this and to stop this childish desire to be the the US’s best friend in a way which demeans us. The way we behave is little better than bending over and holding our ankles.
It is both pathetic and humiliating.
A pro-Trump Johnson could well revive the 2017 Labour coalition.
Under a different leader, yes. Under Corbyn, No. He carries too much baggage on anti-semitism, Brexit and his past dalliances with Hamas etc to pull any sort of coalition together
They aren't past dalliances - they are part of his core beliefs.
He openly supports enemies of the UK and of freedom
If anything were to make me a Corbynista, it would be the embarrassing and pitiful grovelling and arse-licking towards the US which the British politicians, particularly in the Tory party, indulge in.
I have a lot of time for the US. But they are not always right or sensible or wise. And they act in their own interests, not our. Always have done. Always will. Long past the time for us to realise this and to stop this childish desire to be the the US’s best friend in a way which demeans us. The way we behave is little better than bending over and holding our ankles.
It is both pathetic and humiliating.
A pro-Trump Johnson could well revive the 2017 Labour coalition.
No, as Boris wins over some 2017 Labour Leave voters as Ashcroft's poll showed yesterday while more Remainers vote LD or Green
Please stop speaking on behalf of Leavers. You are a Remainer. You voted remain you are not a leaver and don't know what they are thinking or intend to do.
Votes by MPs to legalise same-sex marriage and liberalise abortion law in Northern Ireland breach the devolution settlement, the Democratic Unionist Party has said. .... While the votes do not automatically change the law, they compel government to make the changes if devolution at Stormont is not restored by 21 October.
The DUP said the votes make it more difficult to restore its power-sharing government with Sinn Féin that collapsed in January 2017 amid a bitter row.
Can someone explain how the third paragraph follows from the second? Given the DUP viewpoint surely ensuring devolution at Stormont is restored 21 October is essential otherwise their views will have been overridden.
If anything were to make me a Corbynista, it would be the embarrassing and pitiful grovelling and arse-licking towards the US which the British politicians, particularly in the Tory party, indulge in.
I have a lot of time for the US. But they are not always right or sensible or wise. And they act in their own interests, not our. Always have done. Always will. Long past the time for us to realise this and to stop this childish desire to be the the US’s best friend in a way which demeans us. The way we behave is little better than bending over and holding our ankles.
It is both pathetic and humiliating.
A pro-Trump Johnson could well revive the 2017 Labour coalition.
No, as Boris wins over some 2017 Labour Leave voters as Ashcroft's poll showed yesterday while more Remainers vote LD or Green
Please stop speaking on behalf of Leavers. You are a Remainer. You voted remain you are not a leaver and don't know what they are thinking or intend to do.
Don't you tell me who I speak for or not.
I can read the polling evidence as much as anyone else, the majority of Leavers want to Leave Deal or No Deal in October
Boris Johnson may find himself in the driving seat, but will the pedals and steering wheel work? He might not have much control over the direction things take.
If anything were to make me a Corbynista, it would be the embarrassing and pitiful grovelling and arse-licking towards the US which the British politicians, particularly in the Tory party, indulge in.
I have a lot of time for the US. But they are not always right or sensible or wise. And they act in their own interests, not our. Always have done. Always will. Long past the time for us to realise this and to stop this childish desire to be the the US’s best friend in a way which demeans us. The way we behave is little better than bending over and holding our ankles.
It is both pathetic and humiliating.
A pro-Trump Johnson could well revive the 2017 Labour coalition.
No, as Boris wins over some 2017 Labour Leave voters as Ashcroft's poll showed yesterday while more Remainers vote LD or Green
Please stop speaking on behalf of Leavers. You are a Remainer. You voted remain you are not a leaver and don't know what they are thinking or intend to do.
Don't you tell me who I speak for or not.
I can read the polling evidence as much as anyone else, the majority of Leavers want to Leave Deal or No Deal in October
You voted Remain you are a Remainer. You also say you are a conservative but I don't hear you tell us what Labour supporters would do. You have no idea. Likewise you are not a leaver so can't speak for them.
It also plays very well for remain. Brexit Britain = licking Trump's hindquarters.
Indeed.
"If you want a vision of the future, Winston, imagine kissing the rancid buttocks of a corpulent septuagenarian and eating chlorinated chicken ... FOREVER."
Imagine if we had to wash down chlorinated chicken with chlorinated tap water . .
I think that misses the point. It is not the chlorination that is the issue but the reason for the chlorination and as I have never heard of a case of cruelty or mistreatment of water I think we are ok
As for the replacement I read a few days before this blew up that there was an initiative to recruit non civil servants to ambassador roles. What prescient timing.
Votes by MPs to legalise same-sex marriage and liberalise abortion law in Northern Ireland breach the devolution settlement, the Democratic Unionist Party has said. .... While the votes do not automatically change the law, they compel government to make the changes if devolution at Stormont is not restored by 21 October.
The DUP said the votes make it more difficult to restore its power-sharing government with Sinn Féin that collapsed in January 2017 amid a bitter row.
Can someone explain how the third paragraph follows from the second? Given the DUP viewpoint surely ensuring devolution at Stormont is restored 21 October is essential otherwise their views will have been overridden.
I presume because Sinn Fein won't come back into government when there is the prospect of a monstrous humiliation for the DUP around the corner. On which, doesn't this make it more likely the DUP will pull support from the Government? They may well seek a GE rather than this.
It also plays very well for remain. Brexit Britain = licking Trump's hindquarters.
Indeed.
"If you want a vision of the future, Winston, imagine kissing the rancid buttocks of a corpulent septuagenarian and eating chlorinated chicken ... FOREVER."
Imagine if we had to wash down chlorinated chicken with chlorinated tap water . .
I think that misses the point. It is not the chlorination that is the issue but the reason for the chlorination and as I have never heard of a case of cruelty or mistreatment of water I think we are ok
The reason for the chlorination is for food hygiene. So long as it works for that purpose it shouldn't be banned.
The logic against is like saying drivers seatbelts should be banned because that would make drivers drive safer.
As for the replacement I read a few days before this blew up that there was an initiative to recruit non civil servants to ambassador roles. What prescient timing.
I see Richard Tice being in the frame.
But when that happens I close my eyes immediately and keep them closed.
Oh dear. Matthew throwing his toys out of the pram...
Guess we're going to see a lot of this in the next fortnight.
Yes as seen downthread, how dare we have a PM who actually campaigned for Leave and has an optimistic vision of Brexit!
Because a blind man with an optimistic view of crossing the road is just what we need right now?
What we need is someone who believes in the FTA for GB and restoration of sovereignty and border control Vote Leave won on not someone trying to keep as close ties to the EU as possible if not outright trying to stop Brexit altogether
Votes by MPs to legalise same-sex marriage and liberalise abortion law in Northern Ireland breach the devolution settlement, the Democratic Unionist Party has said. .... While the votes do not automatically change the law, they compel government to make the changes if devolution at Stormont is not restored by 21 October.
The DUP said the votes make it more difficult to restore its power-sharing government with Sinn Féin that collapsed in January 2017 amid a bitter row.
Can someone explain how the third paragraph follows from the second? Given the DUP viewpoint surely ensuring devolution at Stormont is restored 21 October is essential otherwise their views will have been overridden.
I presume because Sinn Fein won't come back into government when there is the prospect of a monstrous humiliation for the DUP around the corner. On which, doesn't this make it more likely the DUP will pull support from the Government? They may well seek a GE rather than this.
Hmm an election makes removing the law in time impossible. the DUP really don't have a good route out of this. My (more liberal) NI are loving this.
As for Boris I suspect you are right - Early today I had Boris as PM until September 6th (as I expected a VoNC after the recess) I now half suspect it might be immediate on July 25th and he will lose...
Oh dear. Matthew throwing his toys out of the pram...
Guess we're going to see a lot of this in the next fortnight.
Yes as seen downthread, how dare we have a PM who actually campaigned for Leave and has an optimistic vision of Brexit!
Because a blind man with an optimistic view of crossing the road is just what we need right now?
What we need is someone who believes in the FTA for GB and restoration of sovereignty and border control Vote Leave won on not someone trying to keep as close ties to the EU as possible if not outright trying to stop Brexit altogether
Nah. What you, I and the other Remainers want is to maintain very close ties to the EU.
Oh dear. Matthew throwing his toys out of the pram...
Guess we're going to see a lot of this in the next fortnight.
Yes as seen downthread, how dare we have a PM who actually campaigned for Leave and has an optimistic vision of Brexit!
Because a blind man with an optimistic view of crossing the road is just what we need right now?
What we need is someone who believes in the FTA for GB and restoration of sovereignty and border control Vote Leave won on not someone trying to keep as close ties to the EU as possible if not outright trying to stop Brexit altogether
GB is not the country. The question asked in the referendum was should the United Kingdom leave the EU not should GB.
As for the replacement I read a few days before this blew up that there was an initiative to recruit non civil servants to ambassador roles. What prescient timing.
I see Richard Tice being in the frame.
But when that happens I close my eyes immediately and keep them closed.
He would have to give up being an MEP if he was a diplomat. I doubt he would be willing to do that and his business interests might be a problem as well. I think it is just newspaper gossip! Interesting but a complete non-starter.
Votes by MPs to legalise same-sex marriage and liberalise abortion law in Northern Ireland breach the devolution settlement, the Democratic Unionist Party has said. .... While the votes do not automatically change the law, they compel government to make the changes if devolution at Stormont is not restored by 21 October.
The DUP said the votes make it more difficult to restore its power-sharing government with Sinn Féin that collapsed in January 2017 amid a bitter row.
Can someone explain how the third paragraph follows from the second? Given the DUP viewpoint surely ensuring devolution at Stormont is restored 21 October is essential otherwise their views will have been overridden.
It's because Sinn Fein have been in favour of those liberalising moves in the Republic, so they aren't likely to allow the DUP to prevent the changes in NI.
Corbyn has been somewhat lucky today - the resignation of our Ambassador is somewhat overshadowing the exposure of his involvement in the Labour failure to tackle anti-semitism.
Is that unhinged? I like both unions and would like to keep them. But I guess that if you don't value the European one it is consistent to be indifferent to the UK one as well.
Oh dear. Matthew throwing his toys out of the pram...
Guess we're going to see a lot of this in the next fortnight.
Yes as seen downthread, how dare we have a PM who actually campaigned for Leave and has an optimistic vision of Brexit!
Because a blind man with an optimistic view of crossing the road is just what we need right now?
What we need is someone who believes in the FTA for GB and restoration of sovereignty and border control Vote Leave won on not someone trying to keep as close ties to the EU as possible if not outright trying to stop Brexit altogether
GB is not the country. The question asked in the referendum was should the United Kingdom leave the EU not should GB.
And Northern Ireland voted Remain unlike GB and is the only part of the UK bordering a part of the EU and can decide by referendum if it wants the backstop to avoid a hard border with the Republic and protect the Good Friday Agreement or wants to join the UK immediately out of the Customs Union
Votes by MPs to legalise same-sex marriage and liberalise abortion law in Northern Ireland breach the devolution settlement, the Democratic Unionist Party has said. .... While the votes do not automatically change the law, they compel government to make the changes if devolution at Stormont is not restored by 21 October.
The DUP said the votes make it more difficult to restore its power-sharing government with Sinn Féin that collapsed in January 2017 amid a bitter row.
Can someone explain how the third paragraph follows from the second? Given the DUP viewpoint surely ensuring devolution at Stormont is restored 21 October is essential otherwise their views will have been overridden.
It's because Sinn Fein have been in favour of those liberalising moves in the Republic, so they aren't likely to allow the DUP to prevent the changes in NI.
So how does the DUP resolve the issue as I suspect that is going to seriously impact the next few months....
Equally how does Boris fix it so the DUP don't abstain when the VoNC (on July 25th) occurs...
Is that unhinged? I like both unions and would like to keep them. But I guess that if you don't value the European one it is consistent to be indifferent to the UK one as well.
Exactly, they want the UK Union but if Scots or Northern Ireland voters insist on Remain as their price for staying in the UK they prefer Brexit for Englsnd and Wales
Brilliant , gets my vote even though I’m not a Corbyn fan.
If you want to not be Trumps lapdog vote Labour .
Corbyn wouldn't have been my choice for Labour leader, and I still think Labour would be doing better with somebody else. But you have to say if you compare him to what the Tories are serving up at the moment he's definitely the better offer.
Votes by MPs to legalise same-sex marriage and liberalise abortion law in Northern Ireland breach the devolution settlement, the Democratic Unionist Party has said. .... While the votes do not automatically change the law, they compel government to make the changes if devolution at Stormont is not restored by 21 October.
The DUP said the votes make it more difficult to restore its power-sharing government with Sinn Féin that collapsed in January 2017 amid a bitter row.
Can someone explain how the third paragraph follows from the second? Given the DUP viewpoint surely ensuring devolution at Stormont is restored 21 October is essential otherwise their views will have been overridden.
It's because Sinn Fein have been in favour of those liberalising moves in the Republic, so they aren't likely to allow the DUP to prevent the changes in NI.
So how does the DUP resolve the issue as I suspect that is going to seriously impact the next few months....
Equally how does Boris fix it so the DUP don't abstain when the VoNC (on July 25th) occurs...
Following on from this given that a VoNC destroys Boris does he go for a general election on the 24th and how will Labour play it?
Comments
Should I seek medical advice?
If you want to not be Trumps lapdog vote Labour .
It would in any case depend on how the other 60% split, by party and regionally. Don't you just love FPTP.
I have my doubts about any of the existing seat projections tools being accurate. They are good for two or even three party battles - but four or four and a half? I think probably not.
Never once has Corbyn stood up for anyone other the enemies of the UK.
He is beyond untrustworthy.
"If you want a vision of the future, Winston, imagine kissing the rancid buttocks of a corpulent septuagenarian and eating chlorinated chicken ... FOREVER."
Why cause a major security breach, risk a prison sentence, embarrass the government, embarrass the President just to get rid of an Ambassador a couple of months before he was due to be replaced anyway? It doesn't make any sense.
Guess we're going to see a lot of this in the next fortnight.
He openly supports enemies of the UK and of freedom
Hats off to him if he does. It's what we need.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-48934045 Can someone explain how the third paragraph follows from the second? Given the DUP viewpoint surely ensuring devolution at Stormont is restored 21 October is essential otherwise their views will have been overridden.
I can read the polling evidence as much as anyone else, the majority of Leavers want to Leave Deal or No Deal in October
And the Johsnon Ministry will have begun.
Just let that sink in PB...
Don't have nightmares.
And polls schmolls.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1148987985020563457
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/10/business/sp-3000.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
https://twitter.com/MarkWarner/status/1148979821877309441
I presume because Sinn Fein won't come back into government when there is the prospect of a monstrous humiliation for the DUP around the corner.
On which, doesn't this make it more likely the DUP will pull support from the Government? They may well seek a GE rather than this.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1148988969545293830
The logic against is like saying drivers seatbelts should be banned because that would make drivers drive safer.
But when that happens I close my eyes immediately and keep them closed.
As for Boris I suspect you are right - Early today I had Boris as PM until September 6th (as I expected a VoNC after the recess) I now half suspect it might be immediate on July 25th and he will lose...
1) Boris in Trump's pocket will send people towards remain.
2) Boris in Farage's pocket will send people towards Brexit.
Pockets may not be necessary, puppets work just as well...
As I've stated for months the Tory party is dead the only question is how and when it dies.. And the when determines the how...
https://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/1148994327940648960
Equally how does Boris fix it so the DUP don't abstain when the VoNC (on July 25th) occurs...
"We need optimism, hope and a bit of oomph."
And that is all.