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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tory booted out of his Brecon & Radnorshire seat by the recall petition plans to stand again for his party in the by-election
Brecon & Radnorshire 1979-2017 from David Cowling
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A few thoughts:
1) Low scoring games are more fun - although it wasn't low scoring by historical standards
2) One day cricket is a better test than one day hitting
3) Its a lot harder to chase when the pressure is on
4) All the "we can chase anything, 500 is within reach" talk was silly
5) Good judgement is needed - its better to pick up an easy one or two after hitting a six
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tory-leadership-race-how-boris-johnson-nailed-it-down-to-the-final-vote-a4172856.html
The timing is very awkward, though. If they call it at once, I bleieve the result will come a couple of days after the leadership result.
Historic offences, that's something different of course. And in this case the sentence was far less so it is not as obvious a decision to not back them, but tactically it feels risky. Not that it is unherd of in the world for recalled people to win a sunsequent by-election, but when the Tories were likely to be struggling anyway for various reasons it's a complication they could do without, and certianly not the ridiculous suggestion parties should feel obliged to stand by people in these situations.
Newbury was down to tactical voting for the Lib Dems.
The latter was a seat Labour didn't contest in 1997 because Betty Boothroyd was standing as 'Speaker seeking re-election.'
If true, what is clear is that Boris has some serious debts to repay.
Labour 1/5
Conservative 4/1
Liberal 10/1
Also, I wonder how often the media will mention Ystradgynlais. In 1985 they went on and on about Ystradgynlais all the time.
Davies standing and winning should nip that in the bud.
Certainly, it makes sense for the Tories to push this by-election into the long-grass as if there is an autumn GE: Why bother would be the Tory argument!
A longer time-frame also allows for any Boris popularity to rub off on the Tory candidate. On the other side of the coin in the 1990s the Tories were deemed to have made a mistake by not having the by-elections early and instead allowed momentum to build behind the LD campaigns in Newbury and Eastleigh for instance. I suppose it depends on whether the Tories have already written the seat off or whether they think they can hold it.
Another interesting variable in this is Brexit, the now ex-Tory MP was in favour of Brexit and consequently voted for it. His vote will be missed on any early voting on the course of action the Tories want to take under new leadership in Parliament.
Turnout at the 1985 by election was 79.4%.
There were boundary changes in this seat which took effect from 1983.
Had he been jailed and could not represent his constituents that may have been different otherwise he seems a popular local MP (he was a local rural auctioneer and vet in Hay on Wye before being elected) and this is just LD opportunism.
Plus Powys voted Leave so it is not the type of area LDs have seen their strongest resurgence in.
Labour of course held Peterborough despite the recall and I would not rule out the Tories here too
I see last night a pleasant dinner was interrupted by a woman protester who was manhandled out of the room by a man. There was little noise, no blood, not even bruises. The protestor was shaken and somewhat upset. The general consensus amongst the chatterati is that this was appalling violence that is not permissible in this day and age.
It is a different world.
Guardian had a recording from a neighbour of Carrie screaming at Boris after he spilt red wine on the sofa after he told her to get off his laptop.
Police were called but obviously no action was taken and neither party made a complaint. Just a row that happens to couples across the country and neighbour probably a Remainer
That was quick.
The recall petition is a stupidity filter.
Both Chris Davies and Fiona Onasanya were incredibly thick. Parliament is better off without their services.
The Tories will lose if Chris Davies stands again.
He was not jailed and can still represent his constituents perfectly well.
Although I do wonder if the whole recall mechanism might end up becoming too politicised, there doesn't seem much to argue with here.
Don't want to get pinged for fiddling your expenses? Then don't fiddle your expenses. It's that simple - doesn't matter why you did it.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7168315/Police-called-flat-Boris-Johnson-shares-Carrie-Symonds.html
The LDs are clearly now a middle class dominated party, they lead with ABC1s on 27% but are on just 13% with working class C2DEs on 13%.
The Brexit Party are more working class leading on 28% with C2DEs and in 3rd on 20% with ABC1s as are Labour on 25% with C2DEs but just 17% with ABC1s.
The Tories are more mixed on 21% with ABC1s and 20% with C2DEs.
Regionally the LDs lead in London on 33%, the Brexit Party lead in the South on 28%, the Brexit Party and Tories are tied for the lead on 24% in the Midlands and Wales and Labour lead in the North on 28% and the SNP lead in Scotland on 43%
By age Labour lead with 18 to 24s on 39%, the Tories lead with over 65s on 36%, the Brexit Party lead with 50 to 64 year olds on 33% and Labour and the LDs are tied with 25 to 49 year olds on 25% each
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/21/police-called-to-loud-altercation-at-boris-johnsons-home
Rather than let him be judged at a general election you forced an unnecessary and expensive by election
Clearly there are outlying opinions.
Though entirely within their rights.
You are arguing against the whole point of a recall, which let us not forget requires some serious wrongdoing to be triggered. I hope you defended Onasanya this hard. Yes the crime was more serious in its punishment, but she served her time and was able to do her job after making a mistake, how dare her constituents not wait for a GE to judge her.
Notable that the action is all on next Tory leader, and nothing on next PM. That very strongly suggests to me that this is actually someone trying to make the market move. (Boris is hardly likely to be next PM without him being Tory leader)
So. Dirty tricks. I Goven't got a clue who might be doing such things.