In our culture war I reckon that the majority is just - JUST - with the cognescenti over the ignorami.
One interesting feature of the D-Day coverage is that while those who fantasize about Brexit fetishize World War II, those who actually lived through it are not Brexiteers
When you look at leading Nazis, they were often born before WW1 but not old enough to serve in it - yet old enough to experience the 1920s at a formative age. When I look at my father he remembers the war clearly (he was 3 in 1936) but views it as exciting.
Really? I don't know off top of my head, but I would guess only Speer wasn't old enough to have had some WWI experience.
This week’s commemorations have been quite profound and moving and they have prompted me to reflect on Brexit. I voted remain as the least best option and I have no love for Juncker’s and those around him but ever since the vote I have supported Brexit as it was a democratic vote. I considered, and still consider, TM deal was a very good compromise and as she has said on several occasions we would have left on the 29th March if the HOC had not decided to take a collective leave of it's senses with neither side giving way
While watching the unveiling of the Memorial to our dead in Normandy this morning and the subsequent service in Bayeux Cathedral I just kept saying to myself ‘Brexit is pointless, utterly pointless’ and my emotions were one of exasperation and despair that we should even think of leaving the family of EU nations and making ourselves look utterly stupid in the process
Listening to conservatives talking of proroguing Parliament and not declaring TM successor until the HOC is on summer leave just makes me think it is time everyone took a long and hard look at just what an unnecessary mess this is and either back TM WDA or stop Brexit
If Boris is elected I will only support him and the party to the point they arrive at a deal, even as Gove suggested with a delay if necessary, but my party seems to be in the process of leaving me and if it is taken over by the McVeys, Raabs, Bakers, Cash and others, I will resign my membership but I will not join another political party
In certain circumstances I could vote Lib Dems in the next election but it will be a carefully considered decision as it would be a very difficult for me to leave my party at this time
In our culture war I reckon that the majority is just - JUST - with the cognescenti over the ignorami.
One interesting feature of the D-Day coverage is that while those who fantasize about Brexit fetishize World War II, those who actually lived through it are not Brexiteers
When you look at leading Nazis, they were often born before WW1 but not old enough to serve in it - yet old enough to experience the 1920s at a formative age. When I look at my father he remembers the war clearly (he was 3 in 1936) but views it as exciting.
Really? I don't know off top of my head, but I would guess only Speer wasn't old enough to have had some WWI experience.
Woah, not so fast. The reason why we subtract the Speaker, the vacancy and the SF MPs is because they don't vote. But the 5 ChUKs and the 16 independents can and do vote, so you can't subtract them for majority purposes.
The question if you assume (as I have) all 313 Conservatives would oppose a VONC put up by Jeremy Corbyn and I'm sure they would is what would the remaining 328 MPs do.
'm more convinced now the LDs would support a VONC because a GE would probably go well for the Party. In any case, I can only get to 297 with all Labour, SNP, LD, Plaid and Green MPs. Some of the Independents might support a VONC, some might not and the position of CUK is far from clear.
By my crude calculations, if CUK and DUP abstain, the VONC will fall on the Speaker's casting vote as the Commons would be tied 313-313. IF Labour wins the Peterborough by-election, that becomes 314-313 in favour of the VONC. As to what a newly-elected BXP MP would do faced with a VONC, I don't know.
I think four "non Change" ex Lab MPs (inc Onasanya) abstained on the last VONC.
Plus Lady Hermon voted for the Govt.
Why would any of the above vote differently next time?
Even assuming Lab wins Peterborough that's a net five more votes for the Govt (one more for, four less against).
One interesting feature of the D-Day coverage is that while those who fantasize about Brexit fetishize World War II, those who actually lived through it are not Brexiteers
Perhaps a tendency to be less sanguine about the dangers of aggressive nationalism on the continent if you remember how it panned out last time.
Woah, not so fast. The reason why we subtract the Speaker, the vacancy and the SF MPs is because they don't vote. But the 5 ChUKs and the 16 independents can and do vote, so you can't subtract them for majority purposes.
The question if you assume (as I have) all 313 Conservatives would oppose a VONC put up by Jeremy Corbyn and I'm sure they would is what would the remaining 328 MPs do.
'm more convinced now the LDs would support a VONC because a GE would probably go well for the Party. In any case, I can only get to 297 with all Labour, SNP, LD, Plaid and Green MPs. Some of the Independents might support a VONC, some might not and the position of CUK is far from clear.
By my crude calculations, if CUK and DUP abstain, the VONC will fall on the Speaker's casting vote as the Commons would be tied 313-313. IF Labour wins the Peterborough by-election, that becomes 314-313 in favour of the VONC. As to what a newly-elected BXP MP would do faced with a VONC, I don't know.
I think four "non Change" ex Lab MPs (inc Onasanya) abstained on the last VONC.
Plus Lady Hermon voted for the Govt.
Why would any of the above vote differently next time?
Even assuming Lab wins Peterborough that's a net five more votes for the Govt (one more for, four less against).
Boris losing a VoNC is predicated on some of the (current) 313 Tory MPs voting for it. There are two routes to this: 1. some of the 313 resign the whip when Boris becomes leader or when he states the policy is No Deal. I think there will be a small number who do this. 2. Some sitting Tories vote for it. This is also possible to a small extent; the MPs who do it would of course have the whip withdrawn. It's more likely if someone other than Corbyn moves the VoNC; maybe they could get the LD leader to do it.
1. Parliament breaks for Summer receess sometime around 20th July.
2. New Con leader elected around 22nd July (after recess has started)
3. Con leader become PM around 22nd.
4. Parliament returns 5th September and at that sitting the PM will move to dissolve the House and have a general election (so no need for VONC)
5. General election 17th October
Still think that's broadly how things will work out but its possible Theresa May might stay on as PM until the result of the general election is known - however I think when the new Con leader takes over the pressure on her to leave Downing St will be so great that she'll do the hand over quite quickly.
All roads lead to an Autumn election though. Sorry Brenda.
1, 2 and 3 seem fine to me. But 4. Why?
I think neither Labour nor the Cons will want a GE in light of recent events. I don't think either a VoNC or a move to dissolve Parliament will pass, no matter who is whipped. Too many snouts in the trough to risk an early election. Plus, we haven't time. We need to use September to crack on with trying to pass the deal/prepare for no deal/revoke as appropriate.
3 is where it falls down. May cannot ask the Queen to call Boris to the Palace as she knows (as will the Queen by then) that he cannot command the confidence. Enough Tory No Dealers will have made it plain they will not support him.
The million dollar question is are there just enough wildly Leave/No deal Labour MPs like Hoey who would exit the Labour whip in order to support Boris in a confidence vote, to persuade May she can resign on time?
In our culture war I reckon that the majority is just - JUST - with the cognescenti over the ignorami.
One interesting feature of the D-Day coverage is that while those who fantasize about Brexit fetishize World War II, those who actually lived through it are not Brexiteers
When you look at leading Nazis, they were often born before WW1 but not old enough to serve in it - yet old enough to experience the 1920s at a formative age. When I look at my father he remembers the war clearly (he was 3 in 1936) but views it as exciting.
Really? I don't know off top of my head, but I would guess only Speer wasn't old enough to have had some WWI experience.
Hitler (b1894) and Goering (b1893) fought in WW1. Goebbels (b1897) was medically unfit. But some of the other leading Nazis, Bormann, Heydrich, Himmler, were born after 1900 and too young to fight before the war ended.
Woah, not so fast. The reason why we subtract the Speaker, the vacancy and the SF MPs is because they don't vote. But the 5 ChUKs and the 16 independents can and do vote, so you can't subtract them for majority purposes.
The question if you assume (as I have) all 313 Conservatives would oppose a VONC put up by Jeremy Corbyn and I'm sure they would is what would the remaining 328 MPs do.
'm more convinced now the LDs would support a VONC because a GE would probably go well for the Party. In any case, I can only get to 297 with all Labour, SNP, LD, Plaid and Green MPs. Some of the Independents might support a VONC, some might not and the position of CUK is far from clear.
By my crude calculations, if CUK and DUP abstain, the VONC will fall on the Speaker's casting vote as the Commons would be tied 313-313. IF Labour wins the Peterborough by-election, that becomes 314-313 in favour of the VONC. As to what a newly-elected BXP MP would do faced with a VONC, I don't know.
I think four "non Change" ex Lab MPs (inc Onasanya) abstained on the last VONC.
Plus Lady Hermon voted for the Govt.
Why would any of the above vote differently next time?
Even assuming Lab wins Peterborough that's a net five more votes for the Govt (one more for, four less against).
Boris losing a VoNC is predicated on some of the (current) 313 Tory MPs voting for it. There are two routes to this: 1. some of the 313 resign the whip when Boris becomes leader or when he states the policy is No Deal. I think there will be a small number who do this. 2. Some sitting Tories vote for it. This is also possible to a small extent; the MPs who do it would of course have the whip withdrawn. It's more likely if someone other than Corbyn moves the VoNC; maybe they could get the LD leader to do it.
Can anyone other than Corbyn 'move' a VONC, or must he 'table' it .. ?
Seems like a lot of knicker wetting - can’t see any of the serious contenders not being able to get the DUP on side.
As for any Con rebels - to go against a new leader in the first month after being installed on a vote of the members ? Nah - I’m not having it.
Oh, you may not wish it to, but it will happen. Boris has made some serious enemies, but more importantly there are some that have genuine principles and will never support him. I would predict a conservative estimate (pun intended) at least 4 defections based on strong evidence. Swivel-eyed members who think they should foist a Brexit charlatan on a parliamentary party that does not want him will be in for a shock. Hopefully the more sensible will have second thoughts like they did with David Davis.
"Thank you for electing me as your leader. Over the summer recess, I have been discussing our Brexit strategy with Michael, our new COE, and I am persuaded that it is in the best interests of the country and our party that I ask the new leadership of the EU for a short extension in order that we can come to a sensible agreement in our mutual interest. Love Boris".
Except he can't ask for an extension, he is not PM. May remains PM if he wins leadership. Gove is not CoE either, Hammond is.
And even if he announces that he would seek an extension as soon as he is PM, should the Palace believe that the ultra Tory remainers believe him?
Perhaps May needs to ask for at least a year's extension as soon as the leadership contest is under way?
I think if Boris reneged on his no-deal spiel that will have bought him the leadership, the Tory membership will gnash their teeth but will be powerless. Boris mission achieved.
The ERG won't be happy either. But would they VONC him and be kicked out of the party? I think Boris survives as PM and asks for an extension. The EU will grant a four year extension and say "don't bother us until you have got your act together. We have more important things to do."
It would be great if May asked for a year's extension as soon as the leadership contest is underway but I can't see that happening.
1. Parliament breaks for Summer receess sometime around 20th July.
2. New Con leader elected around 22nd July (after recess has started)
3. Con leader become PM around 22nd.
4. Parliament returns 5th September and at that sitting the PM will move to dissolve the House and have a general election (so no need for VONC)
5. General election 17th October
Still think that's broadly how things will work out but its possible Theresa May might stay on as PM until the result of the general election is known - however I think when the new Con leader takes over the pressure on her to leave Downing St will be so great that she'll do the hand over quite quickly.
All roads lead to an Autumn election though. Sorry Brenda.
1, 2 and 3 seem fine to me. But 4. Why?
I think neither Labour nor the Cons will want a GE in light of recent events. I don't think either a VoNC or a move to dissolve Parliament will pass, no matter who is whipped. Too many snouts in the trough to risk an early election. Plus, we haven't time. We need to use September to crack on with trying to pass the deal/prepare for no deal/revoke as appropriate.
3 is where it falls down. May cannot ask the Queen to call Boris to the Palace as she knows (as will the Queen by then) that he cannot command the confidence. Enough Tory No Dealers will have made it plain they will not support him.
The million dollar question is are there just enough wildly Leave/No deal Labour MPs like Hoey who would exit the Labour whip in order to support Boris in a confidence vote, to persuade May she can resign on time?
There is no one like Hoey, no.
Noone from the Labour side will help Boris command the confidence of the house. Not Hoey or (R) Campbell, the two hardest Brexiteers there.
Woah, not so fast. The reason why we subtract the Speaker, the vacancy and the SF MPs is because they don't vote. But the 5 ChUKs and the 16 independents can and do vote, so you can't subtract them for majority purposes.
The question if you assume (as I have) all 313 Conservatives would oppose a VONC put up by Jeremy Corbyn and I'm sure they would is what would the remaining 328 MPs do.
'm more convinced now the LDs would support a VONC because a GE would probably go well for the Party. In any case, I can only get to 297 with all Labour, SNP, LD, Plaid and Green MPs. Some of the Independents might support a VONC, some might not and the position of CUK is far from clear.
By my crude calculations, if CUK and DUP abstain, the VONC will fall on the Speaker's casting vote as the Commons would be tied 313-313. IF Labour wins the Peterborough by-election, that becomes 314-313 in favour of the VONC. As to what a newly-elected BXP MP would do faced with a VONC, I don't know.
I think four "non Change" ex Lab MPs (inc Onasanya) abstained on the last VONC.
Plus Lady Hermon voted for the Govt.
Why would any of the above vote differently next time?
Even assuming Lab wins Peterborough that's a net five more votes for the Govt (one more for, four less against).
Boris losing a VoNC is predicated on some of the (current) 313 Tory MPs voting for it. There are two routes to this: 1. some of the 313 resign the whip when Boris becomes leader or when he states the policy is No Deal. I think there will be a small number who do this. 2. Some sitting Tories vote for it. This is also possible to a small extent; the MPs who do it would of course have the whip withdrawn. It's more likely if someone other than Corbyn moves the VoNC; maybe they could get the LD leader to do it.
Can anyone other than Corbyn 'move' a VONC, or must he 'table' it .. ?
Any MP can move a VONC however only VONCs moved by the Leader of the Opposition have priority over all other business.
9000-9400 votes would be 'par' for the Brexit party off the back of their European election performance.
Is that based on EE turnout??
I worked it out as 9343 on EE turnout. There is the fact that BXP is slightly weaker in the constituency than the council area but also turnout sounds a bit up. They might cancel up to a max of 10,000 or so.
This week’s commemorations have been quite profound and moving and they have prompted me to reflect on Brexit. I voted remain as the least best option and I have no love for Juncker’s and those around him but ever since the vote I have supported Brexit as it was a democratic vote. I considered, and still consider, TM deal was a very good compromise and as she has said on several occasions we would have left on the 29th March if the HOC had not decided to take a collective leave of it's senses with neither side giving way
While watching the unveiling of the Memorial to our dead in Normandy this morning and the subsequent service in Bayeux Cathedral I just kept saying to myself ‘Brexit is pointless, utterly pointless’ and my emotions were one of exasperation and despair that we should even think of leaving the family of EU nations and making ourselves look utterly stupid in the process
Listening to conservatives talking of proroguing Parliament and not declaring TM successor until the HOC is on summer leave just makes me think it is time everyone took a long and hard look at just what an unnecessary mess this is and either back TM WDA or stop Brexit
If Boris is elected I will only support him and the party to the point they arrive at a deal, even as Gove suggested with a delay if necessary, but my party seems to be in the process of leaving me and if it is taken over by the McVeys, Raabs, Bakers, Cash and others, I will resign my membership but I will not join another political party
In certain circumstances I could vote Lib Dems in the next election but it will be a carefully considered decision as it would be a very difficult for me to leave my party at this time
Couldn't agree more. This farce needs to end. What a powerful and moving post, thank-you for sharing your thoughts.
This week’s commemorations have been quite profound and moving and they have prompted me to reflect on Brexit. I voted remain as the least best option and I have no love for Juncker’s and those around him but ever since the vote I have supported Brexit as it was a democratic vote. I considered, and still consider, TM deal was a very good compromise and as she has said on several occasions we would have left on the 29th March if the HOC had not decided to take a collective leave of it's senses with neither side giving way
While watching the unveiling of the Memorial to our dead in Normandy this morning and the subsequent service in Bayeux Cathedral I just kept saying to myself ‘Brexit is pointless, utterly pointless’ and my emotions were one of exasperation and despair that we should even think of leaving the family of EU nations and making ourselves look utterly stupid in the process
Listening to conservatives talking of proroguing Parliament and not declaring TM successor until the HOC is on summer leave just makes me think it is time everyone took a long and hard look at just what an unnecessary mess this is and either back TM WDA or stop Brexit
If Boris is elected I will only support him and the party to the point they arrive at a deal, even as Gove suggested with a delay if necessary, but my party seems to be in the process of leaving me and if it is taken over by the McVeys, Raabs, Bakers, Cash and others, I will resign my membership but I will not join another political party
In certain circumstances I could vote Lib Dems in the next election but it will be a carefully considered decision as it would be a very difficult for me to leave my party at this time
I am not going to trigger you by suggesting you take a serious look at Labour as a possibility, because that is a very good post indeed.
Are there ANY circumstances, though, in which ... ?
Woah, not so fast. The reason why we subtract the Speaker, the vacancy and the SF MPs is because they don't vote. But the 5 ChUKs and the 16 independents can and do vote, so you can't subtract them for majority purposes.
The question if you assume (as I have) all 313 Conservatives would oppose a VONC put up by Jeremy Corbyn and I'm sure they would is what would the remaining 328 MPs do.
'm more convinced now the LDs would support a VONC because a GE would probably go well for the Party. In any case, I can only get to 297 with all Labour, SNP, LD, Plaid and Green MPs. Some of the Independents might support a VONC, some might not and the position of CUK is far from clear.
By my crude calculations, if CUK and DUP abstain, the VONC will fall on the Speaker's casting vote as the Commons would be tied 313-313. IF Labour wins the Peterborough by-election, that becomes 314-313 in favour of the VONC. As to what a newly-elected BXP MP would do faced with a VONC, I don't know.
I think four "non Change" ex Lab MPs (inc Onasanya) abstained on the last VONC.
Plus Lady Hermon voted for the Govt.
Why would any of the above vote differently next time?
Even assuming Lab wins Peterborough that's a net five more votes for the Govt (one more for, four less against).
If the VONC was intended to stop a government taking the UK into no deal against the wishes of parliament then I think all the independents would vote against the government. Remember that such a vote would not necessarily lead to an election - it could result in a GNU, a Labour minority government or even another Tory leadership election. The Tories could decide to install what would be a powerless Labour minority and let them hold the Brexit baby for a short time.
Any chance Labour can sneak Peterborough by virtue of a minor Con revival ?
I think that the drop in the Conservative vote share will be comparable to by-elections in 1993-97.
The average fall in the Conservatives' vote share over that period was 21% in England, but that included safe Labour seats. The maximum fall was 32% in Christchurch. Even a 32% drop suggest a floor of 14% for the Conservatives in Peterborough.
I think that floor is optimistic.
The difference between 1993-1997 and now is that then there was a direct right to left swing. This time there is an alternative party on the right.
The comparison should not be with 1993 England but 1993 Canada.
Woah, not so fast. The reason why we subtract the Speaker, the vacancy and the SF MPs is because they don't vote. But the 5 ChUKs and the 16 independents can and do vote, so you can't subtract them for majority purposes.
The question if you assume (as I have) all 313 Conservatives would oppose a VONC put up by Jeremy Corbyn and I'm sure they would is what would the remaining 328 MPs do.
'm more convinced now the LDs would support a VONC because a GE would probably go well for the Party. In any case, I can only get to 297 with all Labour, SNP, LD, Plaid and Green MPs. Some of the Independents might support a VONC, some might not and the position of CUK is far from clear.
By my crude calculations, if CUK and DUP abstain, the VONC will fall on the Speaker's casting vote as the Commons would be tied 313-313. IF Labour wins the Peterborough by-election, that becomes 314-313 in favour of the VONC. As to what a newly-elected BXP MP would do faced with a VONC, I don't know.
I think four "non Change" ex Lab MPs (inc Onasanya) abstained on the last VONC.
Plus Lady Hermon voted for the Govt.
Why would any of the above vote differently next time?
Even assuming Lab wins Peterborough that's a net five more votes for the Govt (one more for, four less against).
Phillip Hammond was pretty clear he would put country ahead of party. If he is already in that position and mindset, it is hard to see that there are not another 20-30 who would do the same, particularly with the cover of such a senior figure being involved. What CUK or the DUP do will be irrelevant if an explicit no dealer is leader of the Tories or a VONC is the only way to stop no deal.
Far more likely however is a fudge PM, promising unicorns which they will get given a few weeks to find, during which time parliament blocks no deal (the PM will not try to stop parliament doing this and would allow time for it). This would avoid a VONC needing to take place to stop Brexit. The fudge PM can play to the angry Brexiteer narrative, continuing to sow division in the country whilst doing absolutely nothing on Brexit, because they cant and nothing on anything else either, because they spend all their energy on Brexit.
The reports from the knock-up sound in line with what I'd expect from a by-election where things are neither great nor disastrous. Sticking to my prediction: BXP 1 by a few thousand, Lab 2, LD and Con well behind, everyone else nowhere/
Here's the question: Would turkeys vote for Christmas? I.e., would Change UK (or rebel Conservative MPs) vote for an early General Election despite the fact that it would almost inevitably result in their unemployment?
Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you the 11 SNP MPs who voted against the Callaghan government in 1979, despite it being clear that a large number of them would lose their jobs in the event of an election.
Any chance Labour can sneak Peterborough by virtue of a minor Con revival ?
I think that the drop in the Conservative vote share will be comparable to by-elections in 1993-97.
The average fall in the Conservatives' vote share over that period was 21% in England, but that included safe Labour seats. The maximum fall was 32% in Christchurch. Even a 32% drop suggest a floor of 14% for the Conservatives in Peterborough.
Here's the question: Would turkeys vote for Christmas? I.e., would Change UK (or rebel Conservative MPs) vote for an early General Election despite the fact that it would almost inevitably result in their unemployment?
Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you the 11 SNP MPs who voted against the Callaghan government in 1979, despite it being clear that a large number of them would lose their jobs in the event of an election.
Those nats are unsung heroes; ushering in the great era of Thatcherism!
Earlier this week, Tory hopeful Jeremy Hunt let slip that he knew Boris Johnson had shorter odds than him at Ladbrokes. It's no surprise that MPs are clued in to the movements on political betting markets (not least because the bookies have sometimes outperformed the pollsters in recent elections) but it's unusual to hear them speak about it so directly. It's supposed to be one of their secret weapons.
In fact, there's a strong rumour going around those in the know that the reason Andrea Leadsom's odds are as short as they is that people in her camp are steadily backing her on Betfair's exchange market in order to manipulate her price. Which would explain why she appears to still be doing so well with none of her colleagues coming out to back her.
This week’s commemorations have been quite profound and moving and they have prompted me to reflect on Brexit. I voted remain as the least best option and I have no love for Juncker’s and those around him but ever since the vote I have supported Brexit as it was a democratic vote. I considered, and still consider, TM deal was a very good compromise and as she has said on several occasions we would have left on the 29th March if the HOC had not decided to take a collective leave of it's senses with neither side giving way
While watching the unveiling of the Memorial to our dead in Normandy this morning and the subsequent service in Bayeux Cathedral I just kept saying to myself ‘Brexit is pointless, utterly pointless’ and my emotions were one of exasperation and despair that we should even think of leaving the family of EU nations and making ourselves look utterly stupid in the process
Listening to conservatives talking of proroguing Parliament and not declaring TM successor until the HOC is on summer leave just makes me think it is time everyone took a long and hard look at just what an unnecessary mess this is and either back TM WDA or stop Brexit
If Boris is elected I will only support him and the party to the point they arrive at a deal, even as Gove suggested with a delay if necessary, but my party seems to be in the process of leaving me and if it is taken over by the McVeys, Raabs, Bakers, Cash and others, I will resign my membership but I will not join another political party
In certain circumstances I could vote Lib Dems in the next election but it will be a carefully considered decision as it would be a very difficult for me to leave my party at this time
I am not going to trigger you by suggesting you take a serious look at Labour as a possibility, because that is a very good post indeed.
Are there ANY circumstances, though, in which ... ?
I'll answer that for him. No, not with Corbyn in charge.
Woah, not so fast. The reason why we subtract the Speaker, the vacancy and the SF MPs is because they don't vote. But the 5 ChUKs and the 16 independents can and do vote, so you can't subtract them for majority purposes.
The question if you assume (as I have) all 313 Conservatives would oppose a VONC put up by Jeremy Corbyn and I'm sure they would is what would the remaining 328 MPs do.
'm more convinced now the LDs would support a VONC because a GE would probably go well for the Party. In any case, I can only get to 297 with all Labour, SNP, LD, Plaid and Green MPs. Some of the Independents might support a VONC, some might not and the position of CUK is far from clear.
By my crude calculations, if CUK and DUP abstain, the VONC will fall on the Speaker's casting vote as the Commons would be tied 313-313. IF Labour wins the Peterborough by-election, that becomes 314-313 in favour of the VONC. As to what a newly-elected BXP MP would do faced with a VONC, I don't know.
I think four "non Change" ex Lab MPs (inc Onasanya) abstained on the last VONC.
Plus Lady Hermon voted for the Govt.
Why would any of the above vote differently next time?
Even assuming Lab wins Peterborough that's a net five more votes for the Govt (one more for, four less against).
Phillip Hammond was pretty clear he would put country ahead of party. If he is already in that position and mindset, it is hard to see that there are not another 20-30 who would do the same, particularly with the cover of such a senior figure being involved. What CUK or the DUP do will be irrelevant if an explicit no dealer is leader of the Tories or a VONC is the only way to stop no deal.
I understand that.
My post was addressing what MPs would do in a VONC in late July when Boris will be waffling / saying he's looking for a deal.
I don't think Woodcock, let alone Hammond, would vote against at that point.
I fully agree that if there is a VONC in October when we are heading for No Deal then that is of course a completely different story.
In our culture war I reckon that the majority is just - JUST - with the cognescenti over the ignorami.
One interesting feature of the D-Day coverage is that while those who fantasize about Brexit fetishize World War II, those who actually lived through it are not Brexiteers
True , I saw several veterans interviewed and they were really sad about Brexit . And a study showed those who actually lived through the war were more pro Remain . The Francois of this world wank off over war movies and and invoke the war spirit, romanticizing the war.
The best honour we could give those d day veterans is to keep united with our European family and say no to the creeping fascism masquerading as patriotism !
This week’s commemorations have been quite profound and moving and they have prompted me to reflect on Brexit. I voted remain as the least best option and I have no love for Juncker’s and those around him but ever since the vote I have supported Brexit as it was a democratic vote. I considered, and still consider, TM deal was a very good compromise and as she has said on several occasions we would have left on the 29th March if the HOC had not decided to take a collective leave of it's senses with neither side giving way
While watching the unveiling of the Memorial to our dead in Normandy this morning and the subsequent service in Bayeux Cathedral I just kept saying to myself ‘Brexit is pointless, utterly pointless’ and my emotions were one of exasperation and despair that we should even think of leaving the family of EU nations and making ourselves look utterly stupid in the process
Listening to conservatives talking of proroguing Parliament and not declaring TM successor until the HOC is on summer leave just makes me think it is time everyone took a long and hard look at just what an unnecessary mess this is and either back TM WDA or stop Brexit
If Boris is elected I will only support him and the party to the point they arrive at a deal, even as Gove suggested with a delay if necessary, but my party seems to be in the process of leaving me and if it is taken over by the McVeys, Raabs, Bakers, Cash and others, I will resign my membership but I will not join another political party
In certain circumstances I could vote Lib Dems in the next election but it will be a carefully considered decision as it would be a very difficult for me to leave my party at this time
I am not going to trigger you by suggesting you take a serious look at Labour as a possibility, because that is a very good post indeed.
Are there ANY circumstances, though, in which ... ?
Yes with Corbyn and his marxist west hating group consigned to history
Woah, not so fast. The reason why we subtract the Speaker, the vacancy and the SF MPs is because they don't vote. But the 5 ChUKs and the 16 independents can and do vote, so you can't subtract them for majority purposes.
The question if you assume (as I have) all 313 Conservatives would oppose a VONC put up by Jeremy Corbyn and I'm sure they would is what would the remaining 328 MPs do.
'm more convinced now the LDs would support a VONC because a GE would probably go well for the Party. In any case, I can only get to 297 with all Labour, SNP, LD, Plaid and Green MPs. Some of the Independents might support a VONC, some might not and the position of CUK is far from clear.
By my crude calculations, if CUK and DUP abstain, the VONC will fall on the Speaker's casting vote as the Commons would be tied 313-313. IF Labour wins the Peterborough by-election, that becomes 314-313 in favour of the VONC. As to what a newly-elected BXP MP would do faced with a VONC, I don't know.
I think four "non Change" ex Lab MPs (inc Onasanya) abstained on the last VONC.
Plus Lady Hermon voted for the Govt.
Why would any of the above vote differently next time?
Even assuming Lab wins Peterborough that's a net five more votes for the Govt (one more for, four less against).
Phillip Hammond was pretty clear he would put country ahead of party. If he is already in that position and mindset, it is hard to see that there are not another 20-30 who would do the same, particularly with the cover of such a senior figure being involved. What CUK or the DUP do will be irrelevant if an explicit no dealer is leader of the Tories or a VONC is the only way to stop no deal.
Far more likely however is a fudge PM, promising unicorns which they will get given a few weeks to find, during which time parliament blocks no deal (the PM will not try to stop parliament doing this and would allow time for it). This would avoid a VONC needing to take place to stop Brexit. The fudge PM can play to the angry Brexiteer narrative, continuing to sow division in the country whilst doing absolutely nothing on Brexit, because they cant and nothing on anything else either, because they spend all their energy on Brexit.
Wonderful.
I don't see how we would get a fudge PM. Neither Corbyn nor Boris (if it is him) would allow their MPs to vote for anyone else but themselves.
Woah, not so fast. The reason why we subtract the Speaker, the vacancy and the SF MPs is because they don't vote. But the 5 ChUKs and the 16 independents can and do vote, so you can't subtract them for majority purposes.
The question if you assume (as I have) all 313 Conservatives would oppose a VONC put up by Jeremy Corbyn and I'm sure they would is what would the remaining 328 MPs do.
'm more convinced now the LDs would support a VONC because a GE would probably go well for the Party. In any case, I can only get to 297 with all Labour, SNP, LD, Plaid and Green MPs. Some of the Independents might support a VONC, some might not and the position of CUK is far from clear.
By my crude calculations, if CUK and DUP abstain, the VONC will fall on the Speaker's casting vote as the Commons would be tied 313-313. IF Labour wins the Peterborough by-election, that becomes 314-313 in favour of the VONC. As to what a newly-elected BXP MP would do faced with a VONC, I don't know.
I think four "non Change" ex Lab MPs (inc Onasanya) abstained on the last VONC.
Plus Lady Hermon voted for the Govt.
Why would any of the above vote differently next time?
Even assuming Lab wins Peterborough that's a net five more votes for the Govt (one more for, four less against).
Boris losing a VoNC is predicated on some of the (current) 313 Tory MPs voting for it. There are two routes to this: 1. some of the 313 resign the whip when Boris becomes leader or when he states the policy is No Deal. I think there will be a small number who do this. 2. Some sitting Tories vote for it. This is also possible to a small extent; the MPs who do it would of course have the whip withdrawn. It's more likely if someone other than Corbyn moves the VoNC; maybe they could get the LD leader to do it.
Can anyone other than Corbyn 'move' a VONC, or must he 'table' it .. ?
afaiaa from past discussions, it doesn't have to be moved/tabled by (the leader of) HM loyal opposition.
Woah, not so fast. The reason why we subtract the Speaker, the vacancy and the SF MPs is because they don't vote. But the 5 ChUKs and the 16 independents can and do vote, so you can't subtract them for majority purposes.
The question if you assume (as I have) all 313 Conservatives would oppose a VONC put up by Jeremy Corbyn and I'm sure they would is what would the remaining 328 MPs do.
'm more convinced now the LDs would support a VONC because a GE would probably go well for the Party. In any case, I can only get to 297 with all Labour, SNP, LD, Plaid and Green MPs. Some of the Independents might support a VONC, some might not and the position of CUK is far from clear.
By my crude calculations, if CUK and DUP abstain, the VONC will fall on the Speaker's casting vote as the Commons would be tied 313-313. IF Labour wins the Peterborough by-election, that becomes 314-313 in favour of the VONC. As to what a newly-elected BXP MP would do faced with a VONC, I don't know.
I think four "non Change" ex Lab MPs (inc Onasanya) abstained on the last VONC.
Plus Lady Hermon voted for the Govt.
Why would any of the above vote differently next time?
Even assuming Lab wins Peterborough that's a net five more votes for the Govt (one more for, four less against).
Boris losing a VoNC is predicated on some of the (current) 313 Tory MPs voting for it. There are two routes to this: 1. some of the 313 resign the whip when Boris becomes leader or when he states the policy is No Deal. I think there will be a small number who do this. 2. Some sitting Tories vote for it. This is also possible to a small extent; the MPs who do it would of course have the whip withdrawn. It's more likely if someone other than Corbyn moves the VoNC; maybe they could get the LD leader to do it.
Can anyone other than Corbyn 'move' a VONC, or must he 'table' it .. ?
Any MP can move a VONC however only VONCs moved by the Leader of the Opposition have priority over all other business.
What about ones moved by the Chancellor of the Exchequer?
This week’s commemorations have been quite profound and moving and they have prompted me to reflect on Brexit. I voted remain as the least best option and I have no love for Juncker’s and those around him but ever since the vote I have supported Brexit as it was a democratic vote. I considered, and still consider, TM deal was a very good compromise and as she has said on several occasions we would have left on the 29th March if the HOC had not decided to take a collective leave of it's senses with neither side giving way
While watching the unveiling of the Memorial to our dead in Normandy this morning and the subsequent service in Bayeux Cathedral I just kept saying to myself ‘Brexit is pointless, utterly pointless’ and my emotions were one of exasperation and despair that we should even think of leaving the family of EU nations and making ourselves look utterly stupid in the process
Listening to conservatives talking of proroguing Parliament and not declaring TM successor until the HOC is on summer leave just makes me think it is time everyone took a long and hard look at just what an unnecessary mess this is and either back TM WDA or stop Brexit
If Boris is elected I will only support him and the party to the point they arrive at a deal, even as Gove suggested with a delay if necessary, but my party seems to be in the process of leaving me and if it is taken over by the McVeys, Raabs, Bakers, Cash and others, I will resign my membership but I will not join another political party
In certain circumstances I could vote Lib Dems in the next election but it will be a carefully considered decision as it would be a very difficult for me to leave my party at this time
Couldn't agree more. This farce needs to end. What a powerful and moving post, thank-you for sharing your thoughts.
Thank you. I would hope that, if nothing else, this week has given many a cause to reflect on the unnecessary pain we are living through
Woah, not so fast. The reason why we subtract the Speaker, the vacancy and the SF MPs is because they don't vote. But the 5 ChUKs and the 16 independents can and do vote, so you can't subtract them for majority purposes.
The question if you assume (as I have) all 313 Conservatives would oppose a VONC put up by Jeremy Corbyn and I'm sure they would is what would the remaining 328 MPs do.
'm more convinced now the LDs would support a VONC because a GE would probably go well for the Party. In any case, I can only get to 297 with all Labour, SNP, LD, Plaid and Green MPs. Some of the Independents might support a VONC, some might not and the position of CUK is far from clear.
By my crude calculations, if CUK and DUP abstain, the VONC will fall on the Speaker's casting vote as the Commons would be tied 313-313. IF Labour wins the Peterborough by-election, that becomes 314-313 in favour of the VONC. As to what a newly-elected BXP MP would do faced with a VONC, I don't know.
I think four "non Change" ex Lab MPs (inc Onasanya) abstained on the last VONC.
Plus Lady Hermon voted for the Govt.
Why would any of the above vote differently next time?
Even assuming Lab wins Peterborough that's a net five more votes for the Govt (one more for, four less against).
Phillip Hammond was pretty clear he would put country ahead of party. If he is already in that position and mindset, it is hard to see that there are not another 20-30 who would do the same, particularly with the cover of such a senior figure being involved. What CUK or the DUP do will be irrelevant if an explicit no dealer is leader of the Tories or a VONC is the only way to stop no deal.
I understand that.
My post was addressing what MPs would do in a VONC in late July when Boris will be waffling / saying he's looking for a deal.
I don't think Woodcock, let alone Hammond, would vote against at that point.
I fully agree that if there is a VONC in October when we are heading for No Deal then that is of course a completely different story.
If it is Boris without being close to October he would get given time. He would hope that parliament arranged another extension without his support so he does not have to take responsibility.
Tories voting for their leader should understand the people most likely to Brexit are Gove and Stewart, the harder the brexiteer the less likely it is that it will happen.
How many of the voters get to the point of understanding that will be important. My guess is very few will think it through beyond people dont vote against the party and will completely ignore that they are a minority government. Then they will become more angry that Brexit doesn't happen.
Woah, not so fast. The reason why we subtract the Speaker, the vacancy and the SF MPs is because they don't vote. But the 5 ChUKs and the 16 independents can and do vote, so you can't subtract them for majority purposes.
The question if you assume (as I have) all 313 Conservatives would oppose a VONC put up by Jeremy Corbyn and I'm sure they would is what would the remaining 328 MPs do.
'm more convinced now the LDs would support a VONC because a GE would probably go well for the Party. In any case, I can only get to 297 with all Labour, SNP, LD, Plaid and Green MPs. Some of the Independents might support a VONC, some might not and the position of CUK is far from clear.
By my crude calculations, if CUK and DUP abstain, the VONC will fall on the Speaker's casting vote as the Commons would be tied 313-313. IF Labour wins the Peterborough by-election, that becomes 314-313 in favour of the VONC. As to what a newly-elected BXP MP would do faced with a VONC, I don't know.
I think four "non Change" ex Lab MPs (inc Onasanya) abstained on the last VONC.
Plus Lady Hermon voted for the Govt.
Why would any of the above vote differently next time?
Even assuming Lab wins Peterborough that's a net five more votes for the Govt (one more for, four less against).
Far more likely however is a fudge PM, promising unicorns which they will get given a few weeks to find, during which time parliament blocks no deal (the PM will not try to stop parliament doing this and would allow time for it). This would avoid a VONC needing to take place to stop Brexit. The fudge PM can play to the angry Brexiteer narrative, continuing to sow division in the country whilst doing absolutely nothing on Brexit, because they cant and nothing on anything else either, because they spend all their energy on Brexit.
Wonderful.
I don't see how we would get a fudge PM. Neither Corbyn nor Boris (if it is him) would allow their MPs to vote for anyone else but themselves.
Have the rules of parliamentary democracy been changed? How does Boris stop Hammond voting whichever way Hammond chooses!!?
The fudge PM would most likely be Boris, Hunt & Javid are playing the same game. Raab and Leadsom would be pure no dealers and not have the confidence of the house to be PM in the first place.
Gove is the only realistic chance of delivering Brexit, Stewart would have a better chance in parliament, but it seems extremely unlikely the party would give him a go.
1. Parliament breaks for Summer receess sometime around 20th July.
2. New Con leader elected around 22nd July (after recess has started)
3. Con leader become PM around 22nd.
4. Parliament returns 5th September and at that sitting the PM will move to dissolve the House and have a general election (so no need for VONC)
5. General election 17th October
Still think that's broadly how things will work out but its possible Theresa May might stay on as PM until the result of the general election is known - however I think when the new Con leader takes over the pressure on her to leave Downing St will be so great that she'll do the hand over quite quickly.
All roads lead to an Autumn election though. Sorry Brenda.
1, 2 and 3 seem fine to me. But 4. Why?
Because this House is unable/incapable of passing any form of Brexit and it's highly likely the new government will be subjected to and lose a VONC. IMO
In which case the PM will want to take matters into their own hands and call an election rather being forced into it by a VONC.
Earlier this week, Tory hopeful Jeremy Hunt let slip that he knew Boris Johnson had shorter odds than him at Ladbrokes. It's no surprise that MPs are clued in to the movements on political betting markets (not least because the bookies have sometimes outperformed the pollsters in recent elections) but it's unusual to hear them speak about it so directly. It's supposed to be one of their secret weapons.
In fact, there's a strong rumour going around those in the know that the reason Andrea Leadsom's odds are as short as they is that people in her camp are steadily backing her on Betfair's exchange market in order to manipulate her price. Which would explain why she appears to still be doing so well with none of her colleagues coming out to back her. </p>
That is clearly the case. I would have thought pretty substantial has been put on her. This tactic has been done before. Whether it actually works or not is another matter. Since the electorate currently is only 313, they have pretty good information, I'd have thought.
The interview of veteran Eric Chardin on the BBC was humbling and brought a tear to my eye.
What a truly lovely man and his words on Brexit should shame all those who question the patriotism of those who believe our place is united in Europe .
Raab has shown himself to be totally unfit to be PM. His complete disregard for parliamentary democracy is a disgrace and frankly May should withdraw the Whip.
Raab has shown himself to be totally unfit to be PM. His complete disregard for parliamentary democracy is a disgrace and frankly May should withdraw the Whip.
Keep in mind the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 does provide the provision for a government to legally be able to do what Raab is suggesting.
Maybe the Blair government should have thought through the implications of all their constitutional tinkering at the time (they were warned)
Raab has shown himself to be totally unfit to be PM. His complete disregard for parliamentary democracy is a disgrace and frankly May should withdraw the Whip.
It would be intriguing to see a parallel universe where May withdrew the whip of a few hardline ERG back in 2017. It would probably be just as chaotic as we are today but just perhaps it might have been seen as a strength and got her deal through.
It sounds high for a by-election to me, though not quite at GE levels. My impression is that BXP started very strongly but Labour has pulled in during the course of the campaign, so high PVs should benefit BXP (and perhaps the LDs) as being closer to their Euro success.
It sounds high for a by-election to me, though not quite at GE levels. My impression is that BXP started very strongly but Labour has pulled in during the course of the campaign, so high PVs should benefit BXP (and perhaps the LDs) as being closer to their Euro success.
So narrow BXP win on a high turnout seems likely then?
Seems similar to postal vote returns in the local elections, so I don’t think it’s particularly high. Don’t know about Peterborough specifically but on average at a GE returns are over 80%.
Is it....*fans myself frantically*...an Americanism?
No, it is a term, used by own Ambassadors at the United Nation.
The ambassador for the United Kingdom, the co-sponsor of the resolution, said:
We heard loud and clear during the negotiations the concerns about "automaticity" and "hidden triggers" – the concern that on a decision so crucial we should not rush into military action; that on a decision so crucial any Iraqi violations should be discussed by the Council.
Let me be equally clear in response... There is no "automaticity" in this resolution. If there is a further Iraqi breach of its disarmament obligations, the matter will return to the Council for discussion as required in paragraph 12. We would expect the Security Council then to meet its responsibilities.
Is it....*fans myself frantically*...an Americanism?
No, it is a term, used by own Ambassadors at the United Nation.
The ambassador for the United Kingdom, the co-sponsor of the resolution, said:
We heard loud and clear during the negotiations the concerns about "automaticity" and "hidden triggers" – the concern that on a decision so crucial we should not rush into military action; that on a decision so crucial any Iraqi violations should be discussed by the Council.
Let me be equally clear in response... There is no "automaticity" in this resolution. If there is a further Iraqi breach of its disarmament obligations, the matter will return to the Council for discussion as required in paragraph 12. We would expect the Security Council then to meet its responsibilities.
Here's the question: Would turkeys vote for Christmas? I.e., would Change UK (or rebel Conservative MPs) vote for an early General Election despite the fact that it would almost inevitably result in their unemployment?
Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you the 11 SNP MPs who voted against the Callaghan government in 1979, despite it being clear that a large number of them would lose their jobs in the event of an election.
Several are at an age where political careers are at an end, and knew it when they quit their parties, some of the others such as Heidi, Sarah and Chuka have potential for other careers. They get a decent payoff if losing a seat at an election. By and large they have little to fear from a GE. They will vote against in a VONC of an arch Brexiteer.
Is it....*fans myself frantically*...an Americanism?
No, it is a term, used by own Ambassadors at the United Nation.
The ambassador for the United Kingdom, the co-sponsor of the resolution, said:
We heard loud and clear during the negotiations the concerns about "automaticity" and "hidden triggers" – the concern that on a decision so crucial we should not rush into military action; that on a decision so crucial any Iraqi violations should be discussed by the Council.
Let me be equally clear in response... There is no "automaticity" in this resolution. If there is a further Iraqi breach of its disarmament obligations, the matter will return to the Council for discussion as required in paragraph 12. We would expect the Security Council then to meet its responsibilities.
I also get the feeling that Biden's inevitability is a little brittle. He's rightly the strong favourite for the nomination, but I don't think he's impregnable, and if one or more of his opponents can score off him in the debates this month, it could get interesting. I've been laying him a bit recently, having got on him at much longer odds.
Is it....*fans myself frantically*...an Americanism?
No, it is a term, used by own Ambassadors at the United Nation.
The ambassador for the United Kingdom, the co-sponsor of the resolution, said:
We heard loud and clear during the negotiations the concerns about "automaticity" and "hidden triggers" – the concern that on a decision so crucial we should not rush into military action; that on a decision so crucial any Iraqi violations should be discussed by the Council.
Let me be equally clear in response... There is no "automaticity" in this resolution. If there is a further Iraqi breach of its disarmament obligations, the matter will return to the Council for discussion as required in paragraph 12. We would expect the Security Council then to meet its responsibilities.
I also get the feeling that Biden's inevitability is a little brittle. He's rightly the strong favourite for the nomination, but I don't think he's impregnable, and if one or more of his opponents can score off him in the debates this month, it could get interesting. I've been laying him a bit recently, having got on him at much longer odds.
Warren is definitely one to keep onside at current prices.
I also get the feeling that Biden's inevitability is a little brittle. He's rightly the strong favourite for the nomination, but I don't think he's impregnable, and if one or more of his opponents can score off him in the debates this month, it could get interesting. I've been laying him a bit recently, having got on him at much longer odds.
Warren is definitely one to keep onside at current prices.
It is just as well that the Chukkers didn't stand in the by-election. There would have been a 50-50 chance that their candidate would have quit the party before polling day.
On the Chukker theme, it must be a first for MPs to resign from 2 parties in the such a short space of time.
Will the new Brexit Party MP be squeezing in next to Heidi et al on the odds and sods bench? Or will be be thigh-by-thigh with Raaaab and the other Tory loons?
I also get the feeling that Biden's inevitability is a little brittle. He's rightly the strong favourite for the nomination, but I don't think he's impregnable, and if one or more of his opponents can score off him in the debates this month, it could get interesting. I've been laying him a bit recently, having got on him at much longer odds.
Warren is definitely one to keep onside at current prices.
I agree.
She looks like Hilary v2 to me. Hilary supposedly had lots of detailed policies but struggled to communicate them.
I also get the feeling that Biden's inevitability is a little brittle. He's rightly the strong favourite for the nomination, but I don't think he's impregnable, and if one or more of his opponents can score off him in the debates this month, it could get interesting. I've been laying him a bit recently, having got on him at much longer odds.
Warren is definitely one to keep onside at current prices.
I agree.
She looks like Hilary v2 to me. Hilary supposedly had lots of detailed policies but struggled to communicate them.
I don't remember Tucker Carlson saying anything even vaguely positive about Hillary, ever.
That'll be the Tory ruse for delaying the Oct 31 deadline next time round, "negotiating" with Brussels even though it'll be nothing of the sort.
Perhaps a negotiation of the political declaration will be accomodated by Brussels. It gives Boris or whoever a bit of something to look like he is getting somewhere even though he isn't and they always want to extend to keep our fees coming in.
Is it....*fans myself frantically*...an Americanism?
No, it is a term, used by own Ambassadors at the United Nation.
The ambassador for the United Kingdom, the co-sponsor of the resolution, said:
We heard loud and clear during the negotiations the concerns about "automaticity" and "hidden triggers" – the concern that on a decision so crucial we should not rush into military action; that on a decision so crucial any Iraqi violations should be discussed by the Council.
Let me be equally clear in response... There is no "automaticity" in this resolution. If there is a further Iraqi breach of its disarmament obligations, the matter will return to the Council for discussion as required in paragraph 12. We would expect the Security Council then to meet its responsibilities.
I also get the feeling that Biden's inevitability is a little brittle. He's rightly the strong favourite for the nomination, but I don't think he's impregnable, and if one or more of his opponents can score off him in the debates this month, it could get interesting. I've been laying him a bit recently, having got on him at much longer odds.
Warren is definitely one to keep onside at current prices.
I agree.
She looks like Hilary v2 to me. Hilary supposedly had lots of detailed policies but struggled to communicate them.
Hillary wasn't ever 13-1 for the nomination though.
I also get the feeling that Biden's inevitability is a little brittle. He's rightly the strong favourite for the nomination, but I don't think he's impregnable, and if one or more of his opponents can score off him in the debates this month, it could get interesting. I've been laying him a bit recently, having got on him at much longer odds.
Warren is definitely one to keep onside at current prices.
I agree.
She looks like Hilary v2 to me. Hilary supposedly had lots of detailed policies but struggled to communicate them.
Hillary wasn't ever 13-1 for the nomination though.
Exactly. A decent debate or two and that comes in I think.
Comments
So a 100% turnout is circa 70k electors so
Lab 14000
TBP 14000
Con 7000
on a 50% turnout???
Straws clutching methinks
Love it
TBP 12000
Lab 10000
LD 7000
Con 6000
Boris Johnson is a charlatan not a crackpot.
While watching the unveiling of the Memorial to our dead in Normandy this morning and the subsequent service in Bayeux Cathedral I just kept saying to myself ‘Brexit is pointless, utterly pointless’ and my emotions were one of exasperation and despair that we should even think of leaving the family of EU nations and making ourselves look utterly stupid in the process
Listening to conservatives talking of proroguing Parliament and not declaring TM successor until the HOC is on summer leave just makes me think it is time everyone took a long and hard look at just what an unnecessary mess this is and either back TM WDA or stop Brexit
If Boris is elected I will only support him and the party to the point they arrive at a deal, even as Gove suggested with a delay if necessary, but my party seems to be in the process of leaving me and if it is taken over by the McVeys, Raabs, Bakers, Cash and others, I will resign my membership but I will not join another political party
In certain circumstances I could vote Lib Dems in the next election but it will be a carefully considered decision as it would be a very difficult for me to leave my party at this time
By leading - I mean the tier who actually were the ambitious ones running things directly.
Plus Lady Hermon voted for the Govt.
Why would any of the above vote differently next time?
Even assuming Lab wins Peterborough that's a net five more votes for the Govt (one more for, four less against).
I don't even think he'd mind the problem rumbling on for a few years so long as he was the PM under which it was rumbling.
He has not said he won't try and get a deal.
He may have said he'll leave with No Deal if necessary but his initial "focus" will be on getting a deal.
Boris and "focus"" - yes, I know!
The ERG won't be happy either. But would they VONC him and be kicked out of the party? I think Boris survives as PM and asks for an extension. The EU will grant a four year extension and say "don't bother us until you have got your act together. We have more important things to do."
It would be great if May asked for a year's extension as soon as the leadership contest is underway but I can't see that happening.
TBP 9600
Lab 8000
LD 5600
Con 4800
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1136591077153091584
TBP 9600
Lab 8000
LD 5600
Con 4800
Are there ANY circumstances, though, in which ... ?
The difference between 1993-1997 and now is that then there was a direct right to left swing. This time there is an alternative party on the right.
The comparison should not be with 1993 England but 1993 Canada.
Far more likely however is a fudge PM, promising unicorns which they will get given a few weeks to find, during which time parliament blocks no deal (the PM will not try to stop parliament doing this and would allow time for it). This would avoid a VONC needing to take place to stop Brexit. The fudge PM can play to the angry Brexiteer narrative, continuing to sow division in the country whilst doing absolutely nothing on Brexit, because they cant and nothing on anything else either, because they spend all their energy on Brexit.
Wonderful.
Would turkeys vote for Christmas? I.e., would Change UK (or rebel Conservative MPs) vote for an early General Election despite the fact that it would almost inevitably result in their unemployment?
Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you the 11 SNP MPs who voted against the Callaghan government in 1979, despite it being clear that a large number of them would lose their jobs in the event of an election.
>> Odds behaviour <<
Bettor the devil you know
Earlier this week, Tory hopeful Jeremy Hunt let slip that he knew Boris Johnson had shorter odds than him at Ladbrokes. It's no surprise that MPs are clued in to the movements on political betting markets (not least because the bookies have sometimes outperformed the pollsters in recent elections) but it's unusual to hear them speak about it so directly. It's supposed to be one of their secret weapons.
In fact, there's a strong rumour going around those in the know that the reason Andrea Leadsom's odds are as short as they is that people in her camp are steadily backing her on Betfair's exchange market in order to manipulate her price. Which would explain why she appears to still be doing so well with none of her colleagues coming out to back her.
I can see trouble ahead.
My post was addressing what MPs would do in a VONC in late July when Boris will be waffling / saying he's looking for a deal.
I don't think Woodcock, let alone Hammond, would vote against at that point.
I fully agree that if there is a VONC in October when we are heading for No Deal then that is of course a completely different story.
The best honour we could give those d day veterans is to keep united with our European family and say no to the creeping fascism masquerading as patriotism !
BXP 42
Lab 26
Con 12
LD 13
Green 3
Tories voting for their leader should understand the people most likely to Brexit are Gove and Stewart, the harder the brexiteer the less likely it is that it will happen.
How many of the voters get to the point of understanding that will be important. My guess is very few will think it through beyond people dont vote against the party and will completely ignore that they are a minority government. Then they will become more angry that Brexit doesn't happen.
The fudge PM would most likely be Boris, Hunt & Javid are playing the same game. Raab and Leadsom would be pure no dealers and not have the confidence of the house to be PM in the first place.
Gove is the only realistic chance of delivering Brexit, Stewart would have a better chance in parliament, but it seems extremely unlikely the party would give him a go.
In which case the PM will want to take matters into their own hands and call an election rather being forced into it by a VONC.
What a truly lovely man and his words on Brexit should shame all those who question the patriotism of those who believe our place is united in Europe .
Maybe the Blair government should have thought through the implications of all their constitutional tinkering at the time (they were warned)
https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1136618732946710528
https://www.twitter.com/peterboroughtel/status/1136646433673764864
BXP 32
Lab 28
Con 19
LD 12
Green 5
Not the same thing as English.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/05/tucker-carlson-elizabeth-warren-donald-trump-1355871
I think she will eat into Saunders' support.
I also get the feeling that Biden's inevitability is a little brittle. He's rightly the strong favourite for the nomination, but I don't think he's impregnable, and if one or more of his opponents can score off him in the debates this month, it could get interesting.
I've been laying him a bit recently, having got on him at much longer odds.
BXP 40
Lab 25
LD 20
Con 10
Rest 5
BXP 42
Lab 22
LD 18
Con 9
Green 6
Rest 3
On the Chukker theme, it must be a first for MPs to resign from 2 parties in the such a short space of time.
Will the new Brexit Party MP be squeezing in next to Heidi et al on the odds and sods bench? Or will be be thigh-by-thigh with Raaaab and the other Tory loons?
Perhaps a negotiation of the political declaration will be accomodated by Brussels. It gives Boris or whoever a bit of something to look like he is getting somewhere even though he isn't and they always want to extend to keep our fees coming in.
I'm going to try and make a name for myself by going to the other side of the stage.
Labour hold.
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1136592344512376832
Although he did put it a touch more forcefully.