Plenty of Labour voters do tend to be sinfully lazy, certainly compared to Lib Dem and to a lesser extent Tory voters - the amount of "reminding" they need to actually get to the polling station always seems to be quite something. I remember @IOS talking about it.
@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago More Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.
Well known tactic for parties campaigning on polling day to GOTV
On the Daily Mail website Nigel Farage is pictured getting shit faced in a Peterborough pub. So either he expects to win hands down or he is not going to do very well. Bad form taking the voters for granted either way...
If you are still knocking up voters after 9pm it tends to be counterproductive, people are putting the children to bed, watching TV etc and get annoyed so no harm in a pre count pint.
If the Brexit Party have won they have probably done so by now and the same if Labour has got its vote out after all
Labour often has an uncanny ability to dig voters out the ground in by-elections. Noone saw the absolute scale of their win coming in Oldham West & Royton a few years back.
But in Newport West the Labour vote % went down 13 points, and in Lewisham East (2018) it went down by 18 points
Ooh, I think I'd rather watch the Liverpool victory parade.... will have to miss it.
Trump could not decide whether Boris or Farage was the British Trump but he also said he liked Jeremy (Hunt not Corbyn) though he said he would try and work with Corbyn if he became PM though he still thought it unlikely
Access is the obvious one: and they've thought of it:
""We faced some quite major technical challenges to this building, the biggest one being how to actually get into the pool," said Compass Pool's swimming pool designer and technical director Alex Kemsley in an interview on the company's website. "The solution is based on the door of a submarine, coupled with a rotating spiral staircase which rises from the pool floor when someone wants to get in or out -- the absolute cutting edge of swimming pool and building design and a little bit James Bond to boot!""
I can't really see such a mechanism working in the medium- or long-term though.
I can see other complexities (e.g. how to stop it overflowing, how to fill it up etc), but I assume infinity pools already have those sussed.
Perhaps "the absolute cutting edge" wasn't the best-chosen phrase to describe this spiral staircase going up and down in the middle of a swimming pool.
Labour often has an uncanny ability to dig voters out the ground in by-elections. Noone saw the absolute scale of their win coming in Oldham West & Royton a few years back.
But in Newport West the Labour vote % went down 13 points, and in Lewisham East (2018) it went down by 18 points
True ! Their by-election performances have been a bit shit recently, and that's before the recent Lib Dem and Brexit party surges. Noone notices these things when the by-election is an easy hold though.
LAB is strong in Peterborough because it has good voter data after winning the seat at GE2017. Farage's party hasn't got that sort of election machine.
I'm hearing that LAB running close
'Running close' is an admission of defeat.
I feel confident people could find examples of parties saying it was close, when they win comfortably. Not saying Labour have done that, but it seems like a stock phrase, which we cannot really infer much of use.
Isn't it what everyone tells their supporters on polling day? If it weren't running close, they might not bother to vote!
LAB is strong in Peterborough because it has good voter data after winning the seat at GE2017. Farage's party hasn't got that sort of election machine.
I'm hearing that LAB running close
'Running close' is an admission of defeat.
I feel confident people could find examples of parties saying it was close, when they win comfortably. Not saying Labour have done that, but it seems like a stock phrase, which we cannot really infer much of use.
Isn't it what everyone tells their supporters on polling day? If it weren't running close, they might not bother to vote!
If you are still knocking up voters after 9pm it tends to be counterproductive, people are putting the children to bed, watching TV etc and get annoyed so no hard in a pre count pint.
I was telling for the LDs outside the Church Hall in Zennor at the 1997 GE. I turned up at 8.30pm and by 9.30pm it was pitch dark. This was pre-mobile phone torches and I had a torch in the car but not with me.
I decided it wasn't worth it and as I left I passed a voter using a torch to reach the polling station.
Labour often has an uncanny ability to dig voters out the ground in by-elections. Noone saw the absolute scale of their win coming in Oldham West & Royton a few years back.
But in Newport West the Labour vote % went down 13 points, and in Lewisham East (2018) it went down by 18 points
Peterborough - home of the Nene Valley Railway. A line I've never been on.
Labour often has an uncanny ability to dig voters out the ground in by-elections. Noone saw the absolute scale of their win coming in Oldham West & Royton a few years back.
But in Newport West the Labour vote % went down 13 points, and in Lewisham East (2018) it went down by 18 points
Peterborough - home of the Nene Valley Railway. A line I've never been on.
Never been on it either! I did the Bristol Harbour Railway (or at least the bit they opened) at Easter, though.
If you are still knocking up voters after 9pm it tends to be counterproductive, people are putting the children to bed, watching TV etc and get annoyed so no hard in a pre count pint.
I was telling for the LDs outside the Church Hall in Zennor at the 1997 GE. I turned up at 8.30pm and by 9.30pm it was pitch dark. This was pre-mobile phone torches and I had a torch in the car but not with me.
I decided it wasn't worth it and as I left I passed a voter using a torch to reach the polling station.
St Ives must be a great chance of a Lib Dem gain in the next GE.
Labour often has an uncanny ability to dig voters out the ground in by-elections. Noone saw the absolute scale of their win coming in Oldham West & Royton a few years back.
But in Newport West the Labour vote % went down 13 points, and in Lewisham East (2018) it went down by 18 points
Peterborough - home of the Nene Valley Railway. A line I've never been on.
Never been on it either! I did the Bristol Harbour Railway (or at least the bit they opened) at Easter, though.
I'm planning on some yellow pen action next weekend. Watch this space...
Labour often has an uncanny ability to dig voters out the ground in by-elections. Noone saw the absolute scale of their win coming in Oldham West & Royton a few years back.
But in Newport West the Labour vote % went down 13 points, and in Lewisham East (2018) it went down by 18 points
I don't think either of those had quite the kitchen sink treatment Oldham or Peterborough got/are getting.
Either way it'll be fascinating look at what their high-water mark is.
@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago More Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.
Well known tactic for parties campaigning on polling day to GOTV
On the Daily Mail website Nigel Farage is pictured getting shit faced in a Peterborough pub. So either he expects to win hands down or he is not going to do very well. Bad form taking the voters for granted either way...
I don’t think holding a pint in his hand can be described as getting shit faced
I would be non-amazed to learn that he is a very moderate drinker. The pint is kinda like Wilson's pipe.
I was telling for the LDs outside the Church Hall in Zennor at the 1997 GE. I turned up at 8.30pm and by 9.30pm it was pitch dark. This was pre-mobile phone torches and I had a torch in the car but not with me.
I decided it wasn't worth it and as I left I passed a voter using a torch to reach the polling station.
St Ives must be a great chance of a Lib Dem gain in the next GE.
Yes, the LDs won it back then - the next morning, after hardly any sleep, I went down to Penzance to hear the result. St Ives counts on the morning after as the boxes are brought over from the Scillies by helicopter.
With all the gains elsewhere, I was sure the LDs would win and sure enough Andrew George scraped home by 7,000. Oddly enough, there was a huge cheer from all sides for David Harris, who had been the Conservative MP until deciding to retire. The constituency has only had four MPs since 1966 - John Nott, Harris, Andrew George and Derek Thomas.
On the Labour front, it is variously reported that their GOTV operation and local data are strong, and that a large proportion of their likely voters are staying at home or turning out for other parties. It rather depends on whom one listens to.
Both could be true. A fantastic ground operation, but not fantastic enough to overcome the anger and/or apathy of their target would be voters.
IE, they lose but not by as much as they would have done without the deep expertise and the sterling effort.
Is it good that they are busting a gut? Yes, I think it is. You should always try your best and not pretend otherwise. I hate all that "Oh it's all so effortless" shtick. Leave that to Old Etonians.
At Ives 1-50 LD GE 2022. CON might get 0 seats Cornwall
If you're serious I'll offer you 1/25 on a LD gain at the next GE. I'll take up to £40 to win £1k if the LDs fail to gain it, though I imagine if you are willing to take the bet you might not want quite so much exposure.
Which party benefits most if there is or isn't extra time? Are many people in Peterborough watching the match and thinking "just got time to vote on the way back from the pub"?
Which party benefits most if there is or isn't extra time? Are many people in Peterborough watching the match and thinking "just got time to vote on the way back from the pub"?
I have absolutely no idea how Peterborough's going to go aside from gut instinct. The Brexit Party have momentum (but not Momentum), so I find it hard to see past them.
It'll be interesting to see how a single Brexit Party MP does.
He'll get huge media exposure. With Farage insisting he is in shot for as much as he physically can.....
Which party benefits most if there is or isn't extra time? Are many people in Peterborough watching the match and thinking "just got time to vote on the way back from the pub"?
No - none.
Might marginally help Labour would be my guess. Talking about 30 vote swing potential here max.
With the excitement in Denmark behind us, some interesting polling from countries due south.
First, an Infomap poll in Germany puts the Greens on 26% just ahead of the CDU/CSU on 25% with AfD on 13% and the SPD at a woeful 12%. Their new leadership will need to start turning things round quickly. The last time the SPD was fourth in a national election was 1907 but a lot has happened in Germany since then. To compare, a Forschunggruppe poll has the Union on 27% with the Greens on 26% and the AfD and SPD level on 13% so not a lot of difference.
Further south still into Austria and the latest poll shows the fragmentation of the three party system into something more interesting. The People's Party has a big lead with 37% with the SPD on 21% and Freedom on 20% but both NEOS and the Greens are on 10% which, as I've argued before, makes a People's Party-NEOS coalition for Kurz if he wins well in September.
Obviously on these numbers he could choose to govern alone and it might be welcome for him to have options which don't include either the SPD or Freedom.
"A lot has happened in Germany since (1907)! Masterful understatement.
Excellent. We can find out who has won Peterborough a few weeks after the next election when their replacement has been voted in. Unusual experiment in the effect of incumbency - does it still work when no-one knows who the incumbent is?
I don't quite see what is so significant about it if Labour do win. Yes it is not a safe seat, but it is one they already hold, against possibly the most shambolic government in living memory.
I assume the Tories did not even ask for any activists beyond MPs, lest they be embarrassed when virtually no one showed and those that did did so for the Brexit Party?
Not much point having feet on the ground if you don't know who your supporters are. Are the BXP likely to have data available to send 1000 people knocking up. I doubt it
I assume the Tories did not even ask for any activists beyond MPs, lest they be embarrassed when virtually no one showed and those that did did so for the Brexit Party?
I got emails asking for people to go campaign with Shaun Bailey on Tuesday.
Edit: prediction: exact 4-way tie. Failing which, at least three parties to get over 20% and none to get more than 35%.
The unforgettable Neil on 63 up still a LD activist I see
He is the most fascinating participant from 7Up, really quality television of the sort Granada used to specialise in.
Yes, it is still the one ITV programme I will always try and watch, although sadly they are getting to the age now that 1 or 2 of the participants have passed away
Not much point having feet on the ground if you don't know who your supporters are. Are the BXP likely to have data available to send 1000 people knocking up. I doubt it
I assume the Tories did not even ask for any activists beyond MPs, lest they be embarrassed when virtually no one showed and those that did did so for the Brexit Party?
I got emails asking for people to go campaign with Shaun Bailey on Tuesday.
Edit: prediction: exact 4-way tie. Failing which, at least three parties to get over 20% and none to get more than 35%.
I wasn't being entirely literal, though I assume the number is less than Lab and Brexit.
I would dearly love a 4 way marginal. Or even 5 way somehow, with the Greens surging too. The utter confusion would be amazing.
The second and third will be interesting . Bear in mind at the last election Labour had 48% v the Lib Dems had 3% !
Before the coalition in 2010 the Lib Dems scored close to 20% .
It’s clear a lot of that 20% deserted the Lib Dems for Labour , how many have returned .
I think Labour coming third would be a huge shock given this seat isn’t really condusive to a Lib Dem surge .
Agreed.
A win for Labour, no matter it should be an easy hold if the Tories collapse as expected, would be a good result. A second place but being close to first would clearly not be great, but they can spin it. Third plan is in Euro election territory - awful, and only spared worse shame by the Tories doing even worse.
Comments
LAB have won Peterborough
If the Brexit Party have won they have probably done so by now and the same if Labour has got its vote out after all
Noone notices these things when the by-election is an easy hold though.
I decided it wasn't worth it and as I left I passed a voter using a torch to reach the polling station.
If so, that makes it another quasi Ref2. Big ramifications for the next GE if that holds.
BP vs LD.
Farage vs Jo.
Trump vs Hillary.
They say that what happens in America happens here in due course, don't they?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1uKNAMU1Qw
Some
guessespredictions:1. TBP will win but with a smaller margin than expected.
2. MSM will spin this to say that this shows how TBP are actually the losers (somehow).
3. Corbyn will ignore the fact he has been trounced and will continue regardless.
4. Theresa May will step down as Tory leader tomorrow.
Either way it'll be fascinating look at what their high-water mark is.
https://twitter.com/GeorgeAylett/status/1136614812715294720
With all the gains elsewhere, I was sure the LDs would win and sure enough Andrew George scraped home by 7,000. Oddly enough, there was a huge cheer from all sides for David Harris, who had been the Conservative MP until deciding to retire. The constituency has only had four MPs since 1966 - John Nott, Harris, Andrew George and Derek Thomas.
IE, they lose but not by as much as they would have done without the deep expertise and the sterling effort.
Is it good that they are busting a gut? Yes, I think it is. You should always try your best and not pretend otherwise. I hate all that "Oh it's all so effortless" shtick. Leave that to Old Etonians.
Masterful understatement.
And what he says is correct. You have made the exact same point yourself.
#Consistent
Andrew Adonis no it doesn't matter. LAB have won and Corbyn will be moving in soon
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1136740823456976897?s=20
https://twitter.com/BrexitBetrayed/status/1136740417326784535
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1136740833649205249?s=20
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1136741751459389440
Edit: prediction: exact 4-way tie. Failing which, at least three parties to get over 20% and none to get more than 35%.
Won’t be quite the same without Michael Portillo, Andrew Neil, that nice Lib Dem lady and whichever Labour person is available previewing the results!
The second and third will be interesting . Bear in mind at the last election Labour had 48% v the Lib Dems had 3% !
Before the coalition in 2010 the Lib Dems scored close to 20% .
It’s clear a lot of that 20% deserted the Lib Dems for Labour , how many have returned .
I think Labour coming third would be a huge shock given this seat isn’t really condusive to a Lib Dem surge .
I would dearly love a 4 way marginal. Or even 5 way somehow, with the Greens surging too. The utter confusion would be amazing.
A win for Labour, no matter it should be an easy hold if the Tories collapse as expected, would be a good result.
A second place but being close to first would clearly not be great, but they can spin it.
Third plan is in Euro election territory - awful, and only spared worse shame by the Tories doing even worse.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.158359368
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1136740729764667397
"Yet as Farage jovially plunges into his pint of ale, there is a sense that he may be losing his touch."
Oh.
But, it is no less exploitative of the participants than Love Island or Jeremy Kyle. I felt a bit queasy watching this week.
Brexit Party1.22£80.00£17.20
Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
Conservative 21.00£2.00 £40.00
Liberal Democrat 48.00 £2.00 £94.00
Let's see...