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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s no automaticity that the next Tory leader becomes Prim

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  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    stodge said:

    With all the gains elsewhere, I was sure the LDs would win and sure enough Andrew George scraped home by 7,000. Oddly enough, there was a huge cheer from all sides for David Harris, who had been the Conservative MP until deciding to retire. The constituency has only had four MPs since 1966 - John Nott, Harris, Andrew George and Derek Thomas.

    My home Constituency of Wallasey can certainly beat that. We're on our third MP since 1945. Ernest Marples, Lynda Chalker and now Angela Eagle. Only three MPs in nearly seventy five years.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    John Pienaar on BBC news says Labour activists looking braced for defeat but hoping a high turnout in Muslim areas on a low turnout might help them
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    I'm off to bed, I'll cover the by election result in the morning.

    Am getting old, I used to be able to stay up all night for nights like this.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited June 2019
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1136746107835490304

    To be fair, I remember the last time Farage conceded defeat at this point in the night.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1136746107835490304

    To be fair, I remember the last time Farage conceded defeat at this point in the night.

    LOL - compare and contrast the post 2 below this one
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884

    I'm off to bed, I'll cover the by election result in the morning.

    Am getting old, I used to be able to stay up all night for nights like this.

    No Viagra, TSE?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Labour arrogance is going to be off the scale if they win this.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The problem for the Tories is Farages ego.

    He’s not content with just Brexit . Whatever Brexit they deliver he’ll always find a betrayal narrative . He’s desperate to remain relevant .

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    stodge said:

    With all the gains elsewhere, I was sure the LDs would win and sure enough Andrew George scraped home by 7,000. Oddly enough, there was a huge cheer from all sides for David Harris, who had been the Conservative MP until deciding to retire. The constituency has only had four MPs since 1966 - John Nott, Harris, Andrew George and Derek Thomas.

    My home Constituency of Wallasey can certainly beat that. We're on our third MP since 1945. Ernest Marples, Lynda Chalker and now Angela Eagle. Only three MPs in nearly seventy five years.

    Not my patch, but I notice Bolsover has only had 2 MPs in 69 years, when it was created.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    edited June 2019

    I'm off to bed, I'll cover the by election result in the morning.

    Am getting old, I used to be able to stay up all night for nights like this.

    No Viagra, TSE?
    I only use that to stop myself rolling out of bed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited June 2019

    I'm off to bed, I'll cover the by election result in the morning.

    Am getting old, I used to be able to stay up all night for nights like this.

    When Tories had a chance?
    Scott_P said:
    Silly silly people. Malleable Boris may well be, but even he cannot twist and turn his way out of a Brexit impasse, and who would he go with in a crisis if not the biggest portion of voters in the party, the no deal Brigade.

    Theirs is the logic of the weak and defeated, making excuses to kowtow to their conqueror

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1136746107835490304

    To be fair, I remember the last time Farage conceded defeat at this point in the night.

    Would be a shame. Not that BXP being second would be a non event, nor even wanting them to win, but a Lab hold makes it a bit of a damp squib, and we get enough of those by-elections as it is.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1136746107835490304

    To be fair, I remember the last time Farage conceded defeat at this point in the night.

    Conceding defeat as Labour has ‘just pipped’ them? Can’t be that close if they are certain they have lost before most ballot boxes have even arrived at the count?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Go #mcvey
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kle4 said:

    stodge said:

    With all the gains elsewhere, I was sure the LDs would win and sure enough Andrew George scraped home by 7,000. Oddly enough, there was a huge cheer from all sides for David Harris, who had been the Conservative MP until deciding to retire. The constituency has only had four MPs since 1966 - John Nott, Harris, Andrew George and Derek Thomas.

    My home Constituency of Wallasey can certainly beat that. We're on our third MP since 1945. Ernest Marples, Lynda Chalker and now Angela Eagle. Only three MPs in nearly seventy five years.

    Not my patch, but I notice Bolsover has only had 2 MPs in 69 years, when it was created.
    Huntingdon has had 3 MPs since 1945.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited June 2019

    Labour arrogance is going to be off the scale if they win this.

    Indeed, but they didn't even have to manage expectations with this one, there was so much fuss over BXP, so rubbing a lot peoples's faces in a win would be expected.

    Not that it was guaranteed even if they did lose, but definitely kills off any hope of a third concurrent leadership contest to be kicked off if they win.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    brendan16 said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1136746107835490304

    To be fair, I remember the last time Farage conceded defeat at this point in the night.

    Conceding defeat as Labour has ‘just pipped’ them? Can’t be that close if they are certain they have lost before most ballot boxes have even arrived at the count?
    Sounds like expectations management and Farage's 'concession' after 10pm on EU referendum night, as you say most ballot boxes have not even arrived yet alone been fully counted
  • Scott_P said:

    He is the most fascinating participant from 7Up, really quality television of the sort Granada used to specialise in.

    It is fascinating television, highly entertaining, sublime editing, and I have followed the series throughout my lifetime.

    But, it is no less exploitative of the participants than Love Island or Jeremy Kyle. I felt a bit queasy watching this week.
    It is in some ways tragic to follow Neil's story. An incredibly bright and endearing child, his life as an adult being blighted by poor mental health.

    Sad to see that he views his life as a series of failures, when he has clearly done much good for others.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    BXP out to 1.34
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    nico67 said:

    The problem for the Tories is Farages ego.

    He’s not content with just Brexit . Whatever Brexit they deliver he’ll always find a betrayal narrative . He’s desperate to remain relevant .

    The Tories won a majority in 2015 despite Farage's party getting 12%
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    AndyJS said:

    Labour still 4/1 with Betfair if you think they can win it.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.158359368

    Now in to 3/1. I got on around 6s. BXP slowly edging out again, although still huge odds-on favourites. Consensus that it's a two horse race finally reached (Con and LD both 500/1).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Ave_it said:

    Go #mcvey

    Go away? Go digital? Go west?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Endillion said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour still 4/1 with Betfair if you think they can win it.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.158359368

    Now in to 3/1. I got on around 6s. BXP slowly edging out again, although still huge odds-on favourites. Consensus that it's a two horse race finally reached (Con and LD both 500/1).
    A rare successful trading bet from me. Got in on the LDs at 55 when the poll with them leading (nationally) broke, got out at 22.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Pulpstar said:

    BXP out to 1.34

    The rumours have likely been put out by Nigel so he can make a mint on another election.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    😃 😀😃😃
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Is Penny going to stand?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679

    NEW THREAD

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    kle4 said:

    I'm off to bed, I'll cover the by election result in the morning.

    Am getting old, I used to be able to stay up all night for nights like this.

    When Tories had a chance?
    Scott_P said:
    Silly silly people. Malleable Boris may well be, but even he cannot twist and turn his way out of a Brexit impasse, and who would he go with in a crisis if not the biggest portion of voters in the party, the no deal Brigade.

    Theirs is the logic of the weak and defeated, making excuses to kowtow to their conqueror

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1136746107835490304

    To be fair, I remember the last time Farage conceded defeat at this point in the night.

    Would be a shame. Not that BXP being second would be a non event, nor even wanting them to win, but a Lab hold makes it a bit of a damp squib, and we get enough of those by-elections as it is.
    Who is briefing the malleable bit? Could be Raab supporters in order to put off ERG types from backing Boris.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    kle4 said:

    I'm off to bed, I'll cover the by election result in the morning.

    Am getting old, I used to be able to stay up all night for nights like this.

    When Tories had a chance?
    Scott_P said:
    Silly silly people. Malleable Boris may well be, but even he cannot twist and turn his way out of a Brexit impasse, and who would he go with in a crisis if not the biggest portion of voters in the party, the no deal Brigade.

    Theirs is the logic of the weak and defeated, making excuses to kowtow to their conqueror

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1136746107835490304

    To be fair, I remember the last time Farage conceded defeat at this point in the night.

    Would be a shame. Not that BXP being second would be a non event, nor even wanting them to win, but a Lab hold makes it a bit of a damp squib, and we get enough of those by-elections as it is.
    Not quite a damp squib, since if Labour hold this and the LDs win Brecon, it makes things even tighter in the HOC.

    My money's still on the Farageists to win this though.
This discussion has been closed.