I'm going to try and make a name for myself by going to the other side of the stage.
Labour hold.
I hope so. Not something I would normally want under Jezza. But I have only just stopped throwing up from seeing Trump on TV every day this week being fawned over. The thought of watching Farage's grinning face on breakfast TV tomorrow is just too much.
It feels like one of those reoccurring dreams I have: I suddenly realize I've got some vital exam to sit/course to attend/project to submit, yet I hadn't even thought about any of it for months.
The Peterborough local authority [ source of Euro Election votes ] is not quite the same as the Peterborough constituency as has been mentioned many times.
I'm going to try and make a name for myself by going to the other side of the stage.
Labour hold.
I hope so. Not something I would normally want under Jezza. But I have only just stopped throwing up from seeing Trump on TV every day this week being fawned over. The thought of watching Farage's grinning face on breakfast TV tomorrow is just too much.
Want to get rid of Farage's face? There's a simple way for the Commons to do so.
I wonder what message if any Tory MPs will weighing up who to vote for will take from today.
I also get the feeling that Biden's inevitability is a little brittle. He's rightly the strong favourite for the nomination, but I don't think he's impregnable, and if one or more of his opponents can score off him in the debates this month, it could get interesting. I've been laying him a bit recently, having got on him at much longer odds.
Warren is definitely one to keep onside at current prices.
I agree.
She looks like Hilary v2 to me. Hilary supposedly had lots of detailed policies but struggled to communicate them.
Hillary wasn't ever 13-1 for the nomination though.
Exactly. A decent debate or two and that comes in I think.
Sure, the main point is you don't have to be a perfect candidate to be backable at those odds. Having said that 13-1 may well be about right. I think Biden could... even at 9-4 be value still though I don't like to back at such a short price this far out I've backed him at around 8-1 for £40 in the POTUS market and left it at that. Buttigieg's price is far too short right now.
I hope so. Not something I would normally want under Jezza. But I have only just stopped throwing up from seeing Trump on TV every day this week being fawned over. The thought of watching Farage's grinning face on breakfast TV tomorrow is just too much.
It was a tough week. Toughest I can remember for quite some time. I went on the demo and that helped a bit but not much.
What is interesting in these polls is how few people are willing to say don't know. In the same poll they ask a question about limits on people climbing Mount Everest. This is something less than 1% of the country should have an opinion on, the general public know virtually nothing about it apart from some people have recently died. 85% feel confident enough to choose an answer ahead of don't know - why?
With the actual question, technically the answer is it definitely is, we could offer £50bn instead of £39bn, leave everything else the same and it would undoubtedly be accepted. The responder has to read the question as renegotiate a better deal or a deal that can get through parliament rather than different deal for the question to make sense.
How often are people responding to completely different questions on these polls? For example some will respond based on do you want us to renegotiate a different deal, others might respond based on whether Boris can renegotiate a better deal given his red lines, and so on.
I also get the feeling that Biden's inevitability is a little brittle. He's rightly the strong favourite for the nomination, but I don't think he's impregnable, and if one or more of his opponents can score off him in the debates this month, it could get interesting. I've been laying him a bit recently, having got on him at much longer odds.
Warren is definitely one to keep onside at current prices.
I agree.
She looks like Hilary v2 to me. Hilary supposedly had lots of detailed policies but struggled to communicate them.
Hillary wasn't ever 13-1 for the nomination though.
There's definitely a danger in having too much detailed policy out there as Bill Shorten found out.
In the same way May, would have got away with the Dementia tax if she had used some vague language about reviewing social care costs.
I'm going to try and make a name for myself by going to the other side of the stage.
Labour hold.
Peterborough is a fairly grim place that I used to visit on occasion many years ago. I didn't think it was so grim it would vote 42% fascist though!
You're just childish calling BXP fascist. Name one BXP policy that is fascist.
It is delicious irony that anyone who believes in Brexit can accuse anyone of childishness. Umberto Eco was a very clever man though also a foreigner so you will probably want to ignore him, but here is his definition, and most, if not all of it applies to the founder and Leader of the Farragist Brexit Party:
Your desperate plea that The Brexit Party is not fascist further shows your naivety. As that other non-fascist apologist for Putin, Donald Trump might say SAD! On that note I must go, so I will have to debate with you another time.
I'm going to try and make a name for myself by going to the other side of the stage.
Labour hold.
Peterborough is a fairly grim place that I used to visit on occasion many years ago. I didn't think it was so grim it would vote 42% fascist though!
It's not so bad, I have been many times. A fairly bland overspill town of light industry and warehouses, with a decent shopping mall of chain shops and an old cathedral. Just a fairly dull English modern provincial town. Quite a young population.
I'm going to try and make a name for myself by going to the other side of the stage.
Labour hold.
Peterborough is a fairly grim place that I used to visit on occasion many years ago. I didn't think it was so grim it would vote 42% fascist though!
You're just childish calling BXP fascist. Name one BXP policy that is fascist.
It is delicious irony that anyone who believes in Brexit can accuse anyone of childishness. Umberto Eco was a very clever man though also a foreigner so you will probably want to ignore him, but here is his definition, and most, if not all of it applies to the founder and Leader of the Farragist Brexit Party:
Your desperate plea that The Brexit Party is not fascist further shows your naivety. As that other non-fascist apologist for Putin, Donald Trump might say SAD! On that note I must go, so I will have to debate with you another time.
I also get the feeling that Biden's inevitability is a little brittle. He's rightly the strong favourite for the nomination, but I don't think he's impregnable, and if one or more of his opponents can score off him in the debates this month, it could get interesting. I've been laying him a bit recently, having got on him at much longer odds.
Warren is definitely one to keep onside at current prices.
I agree.
She looks like Hilary v2 to me. Hilary supposedly had lots of detailed policies but struggled to communicate them.
Hillary wasn't ever 13-1 for the nomination though.
Exactly. A decent debate or two and that comes in I think.
Sure, the main point is you don't have to be a perfect candidate to be backable at those odds. Having said that 13-1 may well be about right. I think Biden could... even at 9-4 be value still though I don't like to back at such a short price this far out I've backed him at around 8-1 for £40 in the POTUS market and left it at that. Buttigieg's price is far too short right now.
Wait for the first TV debates. That could expose Biden and might just be the platform for Warren
I'm going to try and make a name for myself by going to the other side of the stage.
Labour hold.
Peterborough is a fairly grim place that I used to visit on occasion many years ago. I didn't think it was so grim it would vote 42% fascist though!
You're just childish calling BXP fascist. Name one BXP policy that is fascist.
It is delicious irony that anyone who believes in Brexit can accuse anyone of childishness. Umberto Eco was a very clever man though also a foreigner so you will probably want to ignore him, but here is his definition, and most, if not all of it applies to the founder and Leader of the Farragist Brexit Party:
Your desperate plea that The Brexit Party is not fascist further shows your naivety. As that other non-fascist apologist for Putin, Donald Trump might say SAD! On that note I must go, so I will have to debate with you another time.
Quaint that you think of your posts as 'debate'.
Sadly Corbyn and May both also tick a fair few of Umberto Eco's checklist. Tradition, something must be done, disagreement is treason, fear of difference, appeal to social frustation, obsession with a plot, selective populism are at the heart of Corbynism and have been a feature of May's leadership.
I also get the feeling that Biden's inevitability is a little brittle. He's rightly the strong favourite for the nomination, but I don't think he's impregnable, and if one or more of his opponents can score off him in the debates this month, it could get interesting. I've been laying him a bit recently, having got on him at much longer odds.
Warren is definitely one to keep onside at current prices.
I agree.
She looks like Hilary v2 to me. Hilary supposedly had lots of detailed policies but struggled to communicate them.
Hillary wasn't ever 13-1 for the nomination though.
Exactly. A decent debate or two and that comes in I think.
Sure, the main point is you don't have to be a perfect candidate to be backable at those odds. Having said that 13-1 may well be about right. I think Biden could... even at 9-4 be value still though I don't like to back at such a short price this far out I've backed him at around 8-1 for £40 in the POTUS market and left it at that. Buttigieg's price is far too short right now.
Wait for the first TV debates. That could expose Biden and might just be the platform for Warren
Apart from Peterborough there are two local by-elections today - a Con defence in Herefordshire and a double Con defence in South Staffordshire. Look for a Lib Dem gain in the first. In the second the Conservatives are usually elected unopposed but it looks as if there is a LD/Green alliance as well as Labour this time.
Brexit Party on almost double Labour's vote in the european elections there. Decent Plaid showing too.
People voting to make themselves poorer frankly.
No. People voting for the “rich”, for somebody else, to pay for their lives. That’s what politicians across Wales, across Britain, tell them will happen. Your views on professional liars, liars by commission and not omission, may differ to mine.
Remainers have successfully prorogued Brexit for 3 years. Now they're complaining when the Leavers want to use it...
Count yourself lucky. If I'd had a platoon of sturdy pikemen available I'd have carried out a Pride's Purge and driven the ERG wibblies from the House.
If people get bored with taking free money from The Leadsom Padox, the 1.43 on offer for Boris to be in the final two looks tasty. Might Gove or Hunt beat him in the vote? Just possible. But MPs deciding not to offer him at all? Seems very very unlikely.
If people get bored with taking free money from The Leadsom Padox, the 1.43 on offer for Boris to be in the final two looks tasty. Might Gove or Hunt beat him in the vote? Just possible. But MPs deciding not to offer him at all? Seems very very unlikely.
It also propagates a cult of an irreplaceable leader.
See Tories edging the same way as they try to convince people in the party that even if they hate Boris and think he is incompetent, they must vote for him because only he can save them.
Remainers have successfully prorogued Brexit for 3 years. Now they're complaining when the Leavers want to use it...
Count yourself lucky. If I'd had a platoon of sturdy pikemen available I'd have carried out a Pride's Purge and driven the ERG wibblies from the House.
Strictly speaking I think Colonel Pride stood at the door and stopped the members going in, but dragging them out would be more dramatic.
I do find this prorogation talk deeply unsettling. Some things are not worth achieving if you have to take certain actions to do it, even if others have been incredibly frustrating.
I do find this prorogation talk deeply unsettling. Some things are not worth achieving if you have to take certain actions to do it, even if others have been incredibly frustrating.
It’s a limited number of halfwits. Even then they show that they can’t think strategically - if they do it, so could another government.
I also get the feeling that Biden's inevitability is a little brittle. He's rightly the strong favourite for the nomination, but I don't think he's impregnable, and if one or more of his opponents can score off him in the debates this month, it could get interesting. I've been laying him a bit recently, having got on him at much longer odds.
Warren is definitely one to keep onside at current prices.
I agree.
She looks like Hilary v2 to me. Hilary supposedly had lots of detailed policies but struggled to communicate them.
Hillary wasn't ever 13-1 for the nomination though.
Exactly. A decent debate or two and that comes in I think.
Sure, the main point is you don't have to be a perfect candidate to be backable at those odds. Having said that 13-1 may well be about right. I think Biden could... even at 9-4 be value still though I don't like to back at such a short price this far out I've backed him at around 8-1 for £40 in the POTUS market and left it at that. Buttigieg's price is far too short right now.
Wait for the first TV debates. That could expose Biden and might just be the platform for Warren
Warren is a better punt as Dem candidate than as POTUS. I cannot see Biden or Sanders going the distance.
I do find this prorogation talk deeply unsettling. Some things are not worth achieving if you have to take certain actions to do it, even if others have been incredibly frustrating.
It’s a limited number of halfwits.
Who include people of genuine authority, and who would be backed in such a stance by many many people.
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
Yep. Plenty of the 103 Labour MPs who signed the pledge to Jews to keep the Jewish Labour Movement from disaffiliating have broken that pledge by showing up in Peterborough. It has not gone un-noticed.
I do find this prorogation talk deeply unsettling. Some things are not worth achieving if you have to take certain actions to do it, even if others have been incredibly frustrating.
I tend to think it is extremely dangerous and could also place The Queen in an extremely difficult position. The backlash would be immense and given the fragility of the Commons majority it might lead straight to an unexpected election.
I'm going to try and make a name for myself by going to the other side of the stage.
Labour hold.
Peterborough is a fairly grim place that I used to visit on occasion many years ago. I didn't think it was so grim it would vote 42% fascist though!
You're just childish calling BXP fascist. Name one BXP policy that is fascist.
It is delicious irony that anyone who believes in Brexit can accuse anyone of childishness. Umberto Eco was a very clever man though also a foreigner so you will probably want to ignore him, but here is his definition, and most, if not all of it applies to the founder and Leader of the Farragist Brexit Party:
Your desperate plea that The Brexit Party is not fascist further shows your naivety. As that other non-fascist apologist for Putin, Donald Trump might say SAD! On that note I must go, so I will have to debate with you another time.
I have no qualms with foreigners, its only your childish simplicity that would make you assume anyone does.
Of those 14 common features I can only identify 3/14 that I agree you could associate with the BXP. Though you could probably identify almost all parties with those three.
I do find this prorogation talk deeply unsettling. Some things are not worth achieving if you have to take certain actions to do it, even if others have been incredibly frustrating.
It’s a limited number of halfwits.
Who include people of genuine authority, and who would be backed in such a stance by many many people.
If you mean Raab, he hasn’t and shouldn’t be elected. The Labour Party has elected Corbyn and his merry band of Marxists, Stalinists, and totalitarian oppression enthusasists. They may be no more or less malign but they are already in place. Their willing apologists post here regularly.
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
I have to say I am always impressed by the Labour party machine on the ground. I once lived in a Labour held marginal and I saw activists with red rosettes in one street knocking up the residents. They were systematically going from door to door and there were about a dozen or so activists doing this. It was the 2001 general election in Harrow West on the old boundaries, Danny Finklestien had been hotly tipped to win the seat and instead the Tories went backward. I voted for 'the Fink' and still think he would have been a good MP...
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
Yep. Plenty of the 103 Labour MPs who signed the pledge to Jews to keep the Jewish Labour Movement from disaffiliating have broken that pledge by showing up in Peterborough. It has not gone un-noticed.
If they win the election they won't care in the slightest. Priorities, priorities.
Steve McFadden is capturing my feelings in this incredible work of art. A brilliant article too. What a shitshow it all is. How will we explain any of this to our grandchildren?
If people get bored with taking free money from The Leadsom Padox, the 1.43 on offer for Boris to be in the final two looks tasty. Might Gove or Hunt beat him in the vote? Just possible. But MPs deciding not to offer him at all? Seems very very unlikely.
If Boris gets put in the final two: Boris wins.
No guarantee of that whatsoever. If it is say Boris v Raab then Raab would be the more extreme Brexiteer of the two.
Steve McFadden is capturing my feelings in this incredible work of art. A brilliant article too. What a shitshow it all is. How will we explain any of this to our grandchildren?
Quite simply. Many people wanted to leave the EU, and many people did not, and it caused a political crisis. Why did some want to leave you ask my dear grandchild? For some it was X, for others Y, and unfortunately there was a lot of Z, or so others felt at least. But after a great deal of disruption, which caused political chaos, we stayed in the end as you know, and life went on.
If people get bored with taking free money from The Leadsom Padox, the 1.43 on offer for Boris to be in the final two looks tasty. Might Gove or Hunt beat him in the vote? Just possible. But MPs deciding not to offer him at all? Seems very very unlikely.
If Boris gets put in the final two: Boris wins.
No guarantee of that whatsoever. If it is say Boris v Raab then Raab would be the more extreme Brexiteer of the two.
And Ken Clarke would find himself getting some unexpected votes!
If people get bored with taking free money from The Leadsom Padox, the 1.43 on offer for Boris to be in the final two looks tasty. Might Gove or Hunt beat him in the vote? Just possible. But MPs deciding not to offer him at all? Seems very very unlikely.
If Boris gets put in the final two: Boris wins.
No guarantee of that whatsoever. If it is say Boris v Raab then Raab would be the more extreme Brexiteer of the two.
Sure, but between the pair of them, and likely transfers, one of Gove and Hunt seem like they can stop Raab, even if they cannot both stop Boris.
It's Boris's to lose, and at some point it seems likely the odds will over estimate his chances, but not sure we are there yet.
At the end of the 48th over, WI needed 33 of 2 overs. Steep. They proceeded to score just 1 run of the 49th and then hit 16 of the last 4 balls when they could not have won ! Bizarre ! But I could have used some other expression.
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
But for whom are they voting? Unless they've got really up-to-date canvass returns then they could simply be getting the vote out for the Lib-Dems and TBP.
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
I have to say I am always impressed by the Labour party machine on the ground. I once lived in a Labour held marginal and I saw activists with red rosettes in one street knocking up the residents. They were systematically going from door to door and there were about a dozen or so activists doing this. It was the 2001 general election in Harrow West on the old boundaries, Danny Finklestien had been hotly tipped to win the seat and instead the Tories went backward. I voted for 'the Fink' and still think he would have been a good MP...
Whether it will be enough we’ll see later tonight . If Labour minimize the loss to the Lib Dems and Greens and BP they could still poll into the 30s . They had 48% in 2017 , much depends on what happens with the Tories vote.
The current betting is based on the Euro elections but that’s not really the best guide . The constituency boundaries are different .
I think the BP are of course favourites but without any specific polling there’s still some doubt.
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
But for whom are they voting? Unless they've got really up-to-date canvass returns then they could simply be getting the vote out for the Lib-Dems and TBP.
They’ve got the data from the 2017 GE. The BP do not have access to that type of data .
The current climate suggests a BP win but the Euros did not have the current Labour GOTV operation which is huge .
Steve McFadden is capturing my feelings in this incredible work of art. A brilliant article too. What a shitshow it all is. How will we explain any of this to our grandchildren?
Quite simply. Many people wanted to leave the EU, and many people did not, and it caused a political crisis. Why did some want to leave you ask my dear grandchild? For some it was X, for others Y, and unfortunately there was a lot of Z, or so others felt at least. But after a great deal of disruption, which caused political chaos, we stayed in the end as you know, and life went on.
I like your story. I was thinking it might end with "and that is why we are eating out of bins" but I think your ending is better.
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
But for whom are they voting? Unless they've got really up-to-date canvass returns then they could simply be getting the vote out for the Lib-Dems and TBP.
They’ve got the data from the 2017 GE. The BP do not have access to that type of data .
The current climate suggests a BP win but the Euros did not have the current Labour GOTV operation which is huge .
But only if they are actually voting for Labour; that's my point really. If 2017 Labour voters are now Lib-Dems or Brexit Party supporters Labour could simply be racking up votes for their opponents, however efficient they may be.
At the end of the 48th over, WI needed 33 of 2 overs. Steep. They proceeded to score just 1 run of the 49th and then hit 16 of the last 4 balls when they could not have won ! Bizarre ! But I could have used some other expression.
To be fair I think they realised they couldn't win so then decided to play to narrow the Net Run Rate deficit which could count for who qualifies rather than swing the bat at everything.
Those 16 runs could be very useful ultimately. Remarkably the Windies are 3rd after this result in the table and have a superior Net Run Rate to Australia despite losing to them today.
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
I have to say I am always impressed by the Labour party machine on the ground. I once lived in a Labour held marginal and I saw activists with red rosettes in one street knocking up the residents. They were systematically going from door to door and there were about a dozen or so activists doing this. It was the 2001 general election in Harrow West on the old boundaries, Danny Finklestien had been hotly tipped to win the seat and instead the Tories went backward. I voted for 'the Fink' and still think he would have been a good MP...
I am impressed too. I grew up on a council estate and it was astonishing how the Labour Party would suddenly be everywhere during elections. I always think they are a bit like the Roman legions. The grit of the foot soldiers being enough to support the whims of the emperors. (Literally in the case of the empire, figaratively in the case of the party.)
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
Yep. Plenty of the 103 Labour MPs who signed the pledge to Jews to keep the Jewish Labour Movement from disaffiliating have broken that pledge by showing up in Peterborough. It has not gone un-noticed.
"No 10 retracts suggestion May could delay resignation until she is sure successor has confidence of Commons Downing Street has been in touch to say that the comments from the prime minister’s spokesman at lobby this morning (see 12.46pm) have been over-interpreted. A source said that there was “no question of the prime minister hanging around beyond the Conservative leadership contest”. The source said that when the spokesman talked about May needing to be able to tell the Queen that her successor could command the confidence of the Commons, he was just setting out the language used as a formality, not flagging up May’s intention to make this an issue.
That does not mean that this might not become an issue. But when I asked the Number 10 source what might happen if Boris Johnson’s election as leader coincided with a group of 10 or so Tories announcing they would vote with Labour to bring down the government to stop a no-deal Brexit, the source would not speculate on what might happen. But he said May did not intend to hang around, and the briefing this morning was not meant to suggest otherwise."
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
I have to say I am always impressed by the Labour party machine on the ground. I once lived in a Labour held marginal and I saw activists with red rosettes in one street knocking up the residents. They were systematically going from door to door and there were about a dozen or so activists doing this. It was the 2001 general election in Harrow West on the old boundaries, Danny Finklestien had been hotly tipped to win the seat and instead the Tories went backward. I voted for 'the Fink' and still think he would have been a good MP...
Whether it will be enough we’ll see later tonight . If Labour minimize the loss to the Lib Dems and Greens and BP they could still poll into the 30s . They had 48% in 2017 , much depends on what happens with the Tories vote.
The current betting is based on the Euro elections but that’s not really the best guide . The constituency boundaries are different .
I think the BP are of course favourites but without any specific polling there’s still some doubt.
I think one has to be careful about not reading too much prediction wise for the recent European election in comparison to this by-election. The Euro's were seen as a free hit whereas depending on what Labour campaigned on locally this could be more focused on bread and butter issues or national priorities. I could be wrong but a higher turnout could markedly work in Labours favour. If Labour do retain it get ready for all the BS about it being a vindication of our Marxist friend Corbyn!
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
I have to say I am always impressed by the Labour party machine on the ground. I once lived in a Labour held marginal and I saw activists with red rosettes in one street knocking up the residents. They were systematically going from door to door and there were about a dozen or so activists doing this. It was the 2001 general election in Harrow West on the old boundaries, Danny Finklestien had been hotly tipped to win the seat and instead the Tories went backward. I voted for 'the Fink' and still think he would have been a good MP...
Whether it will be enough we’ll see later tonight . If Labour minimize the loss to the Lib Dems and Greens and BP they could still poll into the 30s . They had 48% in 2017 , much depends on what happens with the Tories vote.
The current betting is based on the Euro elections but that’s not really the best guide . The constituency boundaries are different .
I think the BP are of course favourites but without any specific polling there’s still some doubt.
I think one has to be careful about not reading too much prediction wise for the recent European election in comparison to this by-election. The Euro's were seen as a free hit whereas depending on what Labour campaigned on locally this could be more focused on bread and butter issues or national priorities. I could be wrong but a higher turnout could markedly work in Labours favour. If Labour do retain it get ready for all the BS about it being a vindication of our Marxist friend Corbyn!
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
I have to say I am always impressed by the Labour party machine on the ground. I once lived in a Labour held marginal and I saw activists with red rosettes in one street knocking up the residents. They were systematically going from door to door and there were about a dozen or so activists doing this. It was the 2001 general election in Harrow West on the old boundaries, Danny Finklestien had been hotly tipped to win the seat and instead the Tories went backward. I voted for 'the Fink' and still think he would have been a good MP...
I am impressed too. I grew up on a council estate and it was astonishing how the Labour Party would suddenly be everywhere during elections. I always think they are a bit like the Roman legions. The grit of the foot soldiers being enough to support the whims of the emperors. (Literally in the case of the empire, figaratively in the case of the party.)
Mind you I formally a member of a trade union and I remember that the TUC could organise my postal vote in one GE! I was surprised as I was not voting Labour in those elections!
"No 10 retracts suggestion May could delay resignation until she is sure successor has confidence of Commons Downing Street has been in touch to say that the comments from the prime minister’s spokesman at lobby this morning (see 12.46pm) have been over-interpreted. A source said that there was “no question of the prime minister hanging around beyond the Conservative leadership contest”. The source said that when the spokesman talked about May needing to be able to tell the Queen that her successor could command the confidence of the Commons, he was just setting out the language used as a formality, not flagging up May’s intention to make this an issue.
That does not mean that this might not become an issue. But when I asked the Number 10 source what might happen if Boris Johnson’s election as leader coincided with a group of 10 or so Tories announcing they would vote with Labour to bring down the government to stop a no-deal Brexit, the source would not speculate on what might happen. But he said May did not intend to hang around, and the briefing this morning was not meant to suggest otherwise."
Doublespeak coming from Number 10
I find the whole scenario extremely implausible (the change in PM would happen before any VONC and May couldn't formally assume how MPs might vote in advance of such a vote) but for anyone who does perhaps it's time to get (back, for some) on Lidington as next PM.
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
I have to say I am always impressed by the Labour party machine on the ground. I once lived in a Labour held marginal and I saw activists with red rosettes in one street knocking up the residents. They were systematically going from door to door and there were about a dozen or so activists doing this. It was the 2001 general election in Harrow West on the old boundaries, Danny Finklestien had been hotly tipped to win the seat and instead the Tories went backward. I voted for 'the Fink' and still think he would have been a good MP...
Whether it will be enough we’ll see later tonight . If Labour minimize the loss to the Lib Dems and Greens and BP they could still poll into the 30s . They had 48% in 2017 , much depends on what happens with the Tories vote.
The current betting is based on the Euro elections but that’s not really the best guide . The constituency boundaries are different .
I think the BP are of course favourites but without any specific polling there’s still some doubt.
I think one has to be careful about not reading too much prediction wise for the recent European election in comparison to this by-election. The Euro's were seen as a free hit whereas depending on what Labour campaigned on locally this could be more focused on bread and butter issues or national priorities. I could be wrong but a higher turnout could markedly work in Labours favour. If Labour do retain it get ready for all the BS about it being a vindication of our Marxist friend Corbyn!
The Candidate is a Corbynite.
I was not aware of this. Still even if she does win I don't think I would describe it as a vindication of Corbyn. Labour should be romping home with a 10K+ majority given the national backdrop...
O/T but about betting. I am here for the political comment and gossip, and am not normally a gambler. However last night I dreamt a very specific future sport result (Croatia to beat Brazil 7 - 2 to win the 2020 World Cup(!), if anyone's interested) and I am tempted to make a small flutter. I am resident in the US which doesn't like sport betting online (except for from NJ currently, and I have standards). I do have UK-issued debit/credit cards but these are associated with my US address.
Can any other PB expats recommend a UK or other online betting site that will take a UK card that has a non-UK billing address? I have a VPN that can give me a UK IP address.
The key vote in Peterborough is what happens to the Lib Dems .
Before 2015 they grew their vote moving from 10% to nearly 20% in 2010.
It’s clear that much of that vote moved to Labour in 2017 . Now some of that won’t move back because some Labour voters haven’t forgotten the coalition .
Last minute appeals on the doorstep to that group and stopping the Brexit Party might reduce some of the Labour losses.
We just don’t know how much traction the stop BP will have. I think Labour need to keep their losses to max 15% to have a chance . So 34% and hope the Tories do a bit better than expected.
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
I have to say I am always impressed by the Labour party machine on the ground. I once lived in a Labour held marginal and I saw activists with red rosettes in one street knocking up the residents. They were systematically going from door to door and there were about a dozen or so activists doing this. It was the 2001 general election in Harrow West on the old boundaries, Danny Finklestien had been hotly tipped to win the seat and instead the Tories went backward. I voted for 'the Fink' and still think he would have been a good MP...
Whether it will be enough we’ll see later tonight . If Labour minimize the loss to the Lib Dems and Greens and BP they could still poll into the 30s . They had 48% in 2017 , much depends on what happens with the Tories vote.
The current betting is based on the Euro elections but that’s not really the best guide . The constituency boundaries are different .
I think the BP are of course favourites but without any specific polling there’s still some doubt.
I think one has to be careful about not reading too much prediction wise for the recent European election in comparison to this by-election. The Euro's were seen as a free hit whereas depending on what Labour campaigned on locally this could be more focused on bread and butter issues or national priorities. I could be wrong but a higher turnout could markedly work in Labours favour. If Labour do retain it get ready for all the BS about it being a vindication of our Marxist friend Corbyn!
Steve McFadden is capturing my feelings in this incredible work of art. A brilliant article too. What a shitshow it all is. How will we explain any of this to our grandchildren?
Quite simply. Many people wanted to leave the EU, and many people did not, and it caused a political crisis. Why did some want to leave you ask my dear grandchild? For some it was X, for others Y, and unfortunately there was a lot of Z, or so others felt at least. But after a great deal of disruption, which caused political chaos, we stayed in the end as you know, and life went on.
I rather think the story-line will be more obvious than that. We needed to wait until the Scots voted for their own independence. Once we'd understood how to separate from a centuries-old liaison, we had a clearer idea of how to separate from a half-century liaison.
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
Yes, it's been a while since we read people saying that all those new Labour members just sat around hammering keyboards. The membership remains as feisty as ever. I don't think it's going to be quite enough, but I wish I could have been there today.
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
Yes, it's been a while since we read people saying that all those new Labour members just sat around hammering keyboards. The membership remains as feisty as ever. I don't think it's going to be quite enough, but I wish I could have been there today.
Ironically (check with Jeremy that I'm using the word correctly) Momentum groups appear to have picked up the "come to Peterborough with us, organise a lift, etc etc" game almost simultaneously with the revelations of the Labour candidate's woeful track record on anti-Jewish racism.
O/T but about betting. I am here for the political comment and gossip, and am not normally a gambler. However last night I dreamt a very specific future sport result (Croatia to beat Brazil 7 - 2 to win the 2020 World Cup(!), if anyone's interested) and I am tempted to make a small flutter. I am resident in the US which doesn't like sport betting online (except for from NJ currently, and I have standards). I do have UK-issued debit/credit cards but these are associated with my US address.
Can any other PB expats recommend a UK or other online betting site that will take a UK card that has a non-UK billing address? I have a VPN that can give me a UK IP address.
Comments
I wonder what message if any Tory MPs will weighing up who to vote for will take from today.
I've backed him at around 8-1 for £40 in the POTUS market and left it at that.
Buttigieg's price is far too short right now.
With the actual question, technically the answer is it definitely is, we could offer £50bn instead of £39bn, leave everything else the same and it would undoubtedly be accepted. The responder has to read the question as renegotiate a better deal or a deal that can get through parliament rather than different deal for the question to make sense.
How often are people responding to completely different questions on these polls? For example some will respond based on do you want us to renegotiate a different deal, others might respond based on whether Boris can renegotiate a better deal given his red lines, and so on.
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1136673248907800576
In the same way May, would have got away with the Dementia tax if she had used some vague language about reviewing social care costs.
http://www.openculture.com/2016/11/umberto-eco-makes-a-list-of-the-14-common-features-of-fascism.html
Your desperate plea that The Brexit Party is not fascist further shows your naivety. As that other non-fascist apologist for Putin, Donald Trump might say SAD!
On that note I must go, so I will have to debate with you another time.
There's only one way to find out if they are the real deal, and therefore it would be better if the question remains unanswered.
My forecast:
Turnout 42%
BXP 32
LD 21
Lab 17
Green 10
Con 8
Other 12
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48541352
THE PEOPLE AGAINST THE POLITICAL CLASS !!
That's a teeny bit fascist.
Remainers have successfully prorogued Brexit for 3 years. Now they're complaining when the Leavers want to use it...
And seeing as Leavers seemed to hate the deal why are you complaining . In Leave world they only like Parliament when it does what they want .
So now we know all that moaning about parliamentary sovereignty was just more hypocritical garbage from the Leave side .
Not that I think it’s at all likely, mind.
Mr. Twelve, it'd certainly be in keeping with the turbulent times.
(Though I admit that with the benefit of hindsight perhaps EICIPM in 2015 wouldn’t have been that bad...)
If Boris gets put in the final two: Boris wins.
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1136611217114615808
That manifesto in full:
Leave. Then what?
Of those 14 common features I can only identify 3/14 that I agree you could associate with the BXP. Though you could probably identify almost all parties with those three.
It's Boris's to lose, and at some point it seems likely the odds will over estimate his chances, but not sure we are there yet.
Is there an exit poll in Peterborough tonight?
The current betting is based on the Euro elections but that’s not really the best guide . The constituency boundaries are different .
I think the BP are of course favourites but without any specific polling there’s still some doubt.
Ok I don't want to hyperbolize. Farage is not Mussolini. But he's certainly not Atticus Finch.
The current climate suggests a BP win but the Euros did not have the current Labour GOTV operation which is huge .
Those 16 runs could be very useful ultimately. Remarkably the Windies are 3rd after this result in the table and have a superior Net Run Rate to Australia despite losing to them today.
Can any other PB expats recommend a UK or other online betting site that will take a UK card that has a non-UK billing address? I have a VPN that can give me a UK IP address.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1136690141521752064
Before 2015 they grew their vote moving from 10% to nearly 20% in 2010.
It’s clear that much of that vote moved to Labour in 2017 . Now some of that won’t move back because some Labour voters haven’t forgotten the coalition .
Last minute appeals on the doorstep to that group and stopping the Brexit Party might reduce some of the Labour losses.
We just don’t know how much traction the stop BP will have. I think Labour need to keep their losses to max 15% to have a chance . So 34% and hope the Tories do a bit better than expected.
If Labour do win it will be close .
Good evening, everybody.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/08/what-time-does-each-constituency-declare-its-results-in-the-2017-general-election
Can't find actual timing.
But, I just laid Leadsom for a grand on Next Conservative Leader. The price just seems crazy given her lack of backing and her disaster in 2016.
Just thought I'd let you all know that.
If Beyonce wrote the song about Nigel I am afraid she got it badly wrong.
He would be able to reply and rightly - "Oh but I am my dear. I am."
Were there local elections there in 2017?
But yes she does look skinny at 10s.