If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
I have to say I am always impressed by the Labour party machine on the ground. I once lived in a Labour held marginal and I saw activists with red rosettes in one street knocking up the residents. They were systematically going from door to door and there were about a dozen or so activists doing this. It was the 2001 general election in Harrow West on the old boundaries, Danny Finklestien had been hotly tipped to win the seat and instead the Tories went backward. I voted for 'the Fink' and still think he would have been a good MP...
Whether it will be enough we’ll see later tonight . If Labour minimize the loss to the Lib Dems and Greens and BP they could still poll into the 30s . They had 48% in 2017 , much depends on what happens with the Tories vote.
The current betting is based on the Euro elections but that’s not really the best guide . The constituency boundaries are different .
I think the BP are of course favourites but without any specific polling there’s still some doubt.
I think one has to be careful about not reading too much prediction wise for the recent European election in comparison to this by-election. The Euro's were seen as a free hit whereas depending on what Labour campaigned on locally this could be more focused on bread and butter issues or national priorities. I could be wrong but a higher turnout could markedly work in Labours favour. If Labour do retain it get ready for all the BS about it being a vindication of our Marxist friend Corbyn!
I suppose we could take comfort from a BP win if it makes it more likely that Corbyn would be challenged again, or from a Labour win for obvious reasons.
Access is the obvious one: and they've thought of it:
""We faced some quite major technical challenges to this building, the biggest one being how to actually get into the pool," said Compass Pool's swimming pool designer and technical director Alex Kemsley in an interview on the company's website. "The solution is based on the door of a submarine, coupled with a rotating spiral staircase which rises from the pool floor when someone wants to get in or out -- the absolute cutting edge of swimming pool and building design and a little bit James Bond to boot!""
I can't really see such a mechanism working in the medium- or long-term though.
I can see other complexities (e.g. how to stop it overflowing, how to fill it up etc), but I assume infinity pools already have those sussed.
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
Yep. Plenty of the 103 Labour MPs who signed the pledge to Jews to keep the Jewish Labour Movement from disaffiliating have broken that pledge by showing up in Peterborough. It has not gone un-noticed.
What pledge have they broke?
They pledged to (1) "play a leadership role in tackling toxic [anti-Jewish] racism" and to (2) "proudly stand with our Jewish comrades to ensure that Antisemitism has no place in the Labour Movement at any level", including to (3) "speak up against antisemitism wherever it is expressed".
Today they are remaining silent (breaking Pledge 3) on the expressions of antisemitism endorsed by the Peterborough Labour candidate (chosen by the same CLP that picked a Holocaust Denier for council, then bullied those who reported it out of the party).
They are not standing with Jewish comrades, who called for the Labour candidate to stand down, and are working to ensure that Antisemitism's place in the Labour Movement is in Parliament (breaking Pledge 2).
This behaviour is not compatible with claiming to have a leadership role in tackling Antisemitism. It is to minimise antisemitism by proving that it has no negative consequences to a Labour career. (breaking Pledge 1).
O/T but about betting. I am here for the political comment and gossip, and am not normally a gambler. However last night I dreamt a very specific future sport result (Croatia to beat Brazil 7 - 2 to win the 2020 World Cup(!), if anyone's interested) and I am tempted to make a small flutter. I am resident in the US which doesn't like sport betting online (except for from NJ currently, and I have standards). I do have UK-issued debit/credit cards but these are associated with my US address.
Can any other PB expats recommend a UK or other online betting site that will take a UK card that has a non-UK billing address? I have a VPN that can give me a UK IP address.
A UKIP address????
United Kingdom-located Internet Protocol address for the pedantic.
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
Yes, it's been a while since we read people saying that all those new Labour members just sat around hammering keyboards. The membership remains as feisty as ever. I don't think it's going to be quite enough, but I wish I could have been there today.
Corbyn cultists are feisty. Outside of cultists go ask local organisers how many people are actually active - it's got significantly worse.
I anticipate the Peterborough data will be pretty accurate - having taken the seat in 2017 they will know where the Labour pledges are. However, I wouldn't have a lot of confidence that 2017 pledges translate into 2019 votes - aside from the national insanity we had the Labour MP pervert the course of justice and be sacked, and the new candidate who is embroiled in an anti-semitism scandal.
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
Yes, it's been a while since we read people saying that all those new Labour members just sat around hammering keyboards. The membership remains as feisty as ever. I don't think it's going to be quite enough, but I wish I could have been there today.
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
I'd like to imagine that Labour will get completely caned in that by-election, but I don't see it happening sadly.
According to a tweet this morning Labour canvassers were finding about a third to half of those they were knocking up as Labour voters were not voting and at least 10% were voting for another party
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
I'd like to imagine that Labour will get completely caned in that by-election, but I don't see it happening sadly.
According to a tweet this morning Labour canvassers were finding about a third to half of those they were knocking up as Labour voters were not voting and at least 10% were voting for another party
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
It might be close for second, which does matter I think.
I agree, it looks like the real battle is between the LDs and Labour for second and the Remainer vote, the Tories are out of, it the Leave vote almost all going Brexit Party it seems
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
If you have ever seen the Jason Statham film: The mechanic resurrection you would not go near a pool like that!
Just watched that scene on Youtube - very good.
I have got to the age where I feel I don't want to watch action films but that is a very well made film. I have watched it on TV a few times in the last 6 months.
@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago More Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
Access is the obvious one: and they've thought of it:
""We faced some quite major technical challenges to this building, the biggest one being how to actually get into the pool," said Compass Pool's swimming pool designer and technical director Alex Kemsley in an interview on the company's website. "The solution is based on the door of a submarine, coupled with a rotating spiral staircase which rises from the pool floor when someone wants to get in or out -- the absolute cutting edge of swimming pool and building design and a little bit James Bond to boot!""
I can't really see such a mechanism working in the medium- or long-term though.
I can see other complexities (e.g. how to stop it overflowing, how to fill it up etc), but I assume infinity pools already have those sussed.
It might well get a lot of bird shit and water born disease festering in it up at the top. It must be nice to have so much cash to burn...
Peterborough by election: Look out for the shy Official Monster Raving Loony vote. If, as I hope, the Monsters beat the Conservatives, that really will be the end, as it was for the SDP
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
logical_song said: « hide previous quotes rpjs said: O/T but about betting. I am here for the political comment and gossip, and am not normally a gambler. However last night I dreamt a very specific future sport result (Croatia to beat Brazil 7 - 2 to win the 2020 World Cup(!), if anyone's interested) and I am tempted to make a small flutter. I am resident in the US which doesn't like sport betting online (except for from NJ currently, and I have standards). I do have UK-issued debit/credit cards but these are associated with my US address.
Can any other PB expats recommend a UK or other online betting site that will take a UK card that has a non-UK billing address? I have a VPN that can give me a UK IP address.
A UKIP address???? United Kingdom-located Internet Protocol address for the pedantic.
I am based in the US and have UK bank accounts also. I bet using a Sky Bet account in the browser with the Nord VPN enabled. All works fine
@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago More Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.
They would say that. They want to get more voters to the polling station in the last 2 hours.
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
Steve McFadden is capturing my feelings in this incredible work of art. A brilliant article too. What a shitshow it all is. How will we explain any of this to our grandchildren?
Explain to grandchildren? Simple. This is the sort of mess you get in when you try to deal with sovereignty issues by stealth for 40 years and then ask the sovereignty question without being prepared for both of only two answers.
@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago More Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.
They would say that. They want to get more voters to the polling station in the last 2 hours.
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
If the Brexit Party don’t win by at least 10,000 votes then they are doomed.
If the Brexit Party win Peterborough they are heading for over 200 MPs on UNS
In November 2014 UKIP won the Rochester by election by nearly 3,000 votes, a few months later they lost the seat by 7,000 votes.
By election swings/results are seldom replicated at subsequent general elections.
Quite. See also: failure of the Christchurch and Newbury by-elections to result in the Lib Dem conquest of Southern England in 1997.
As an aside, thanks to the wonder of Wikipedia I discovered that there were no less than 18 by-elections during the 1992-97 Parliament, 16 of which were triggered by the death of the incumbent. One imagines that the average MP is rather younger and fitter than those of previous generations.
@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago More Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.
They would say that. They want to get more voters to the polling station in the last 2 hours.
I told voters it was 'too close to call' in Ilford North on election day in 2017, Labour won by almost 10,000 votes.
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
Yes, it's been a while since we read people saying that all those new Labour members just sat around hammering keyboards. The membership remains as feisty as ever. I don't think it's going to be quite enough, but I wish I could have been there today.
Ironically (check with Jeremy that I'm using the word correctly) Momentum groups appear to have picked up the "come to Peterborough with us, organise a lift, etc etc" game almost simultaneously with the revelations of the Labour candidate's woeful track record on anti-Jewish racism.
Really? Turning out to help the party they support in a by election is now evidence of anti-semitism?
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
If the Brexit Party don’t win by at least 10,000 votes then they are doomed.
If the Brexit Party win Peterborough they are heading for over 200 MPs on UNS
In November 2014 UKIP won the Rochester by election by nearly 3,000 votes, a few months later they lost the seat by 7,000 votes.
By election swings/results are seldom replicated at subsequent general elections.
Quite. See also: failure of the Christchurch and Newbury by-elections to result in the Lib Dem conquest of Southern England in 1997.
As an aside, thanks to the wonder of Wikipedia I discovered that there were no less than 18 by-elections during the 1992-97 Parliament, 16 of which were triggered by the death of the incumbent. One imagines that the average MP is rather younger and fitter than those of previous generations.
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
Yes, it's been a while since we read people saying that all those new Labour members just sat around hammering keyboards. The membership remains as feisty as ever. I don't think it's going to be quite enough, but I wish I could have been there today.
Ironically (check with Jeremy that I'm using the word correctly) Momentum groups appear to have picked up the "come to Peterborough with us, organise a lift, etc etc" game almost simultaneously with the revelations of the Labour candidate's woeful track record on anti-Jewish racism.
Really? Turning out to help the party they support in a by election is now evidence of anti-semitism?
When the candidate is an anti-semite that would be yes.
I'm hearing Labour win. However I am not sure where the voices are coming from. Might be Peterborough but I couldn't swear to it.
Market still calling it clearly for the BP.
Hearing it from whom. From the Labour team on the ground? I felt positive about the local elections having been on the doors and found that our data was solid and Labour pledges still said they were Labour.
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
Access is the obvious one: and they've thought of it:
""We faced some quite major technical challenges to this building, the biggest one being how to actually get into the pool," said Compass Pool's swimming pool designer and technical director Alex Kemsley in an interview on the company's website. "The solution is based on the door of a submarine, coupled with a rotating spiral staircase which rises from the pool floor when someone wants to get in or out -- the absolute cutting edge of swimming pool and building design and a little bit James Bond to boot!""
I can't really see such a mechanism working in the medium- or long-term though.
I can see other complexities (e.g. how to stop it overflowing, how to fill it up etc), but I assume infinity pools already have those sussed.
I think it's a hoax. Infinity pools overflow into a drain with a wall that's lower than the pool edge, which is what provides the effect.
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
If the Brexit Party don’t win by at least 10,000 votes then they are doomed.
If the Brexit Party win Peterborough they are heading for over 200 MPs on UNS
In November 2014 UKIP won the Rochester by election by nearly 3,000 votes, a few months later they lost the seat by 7,000 votes.
By election swings/results are seldom replicated at subsequent general elections.
Quite. See also: failure of the Christchurch and Newbury by-elections to result in the Lib Dem conquest of Southern England in 1997.
As an aside, thanks to the wonder of Wikipedia I discovered that there were no less than 18 by-elections during the 1992-97 Parliament, 16 of which were triggered by the death of the incumbent. One imagines that the average MP is rather younger and fitter than those of previous generations.
The Tories in particular have made a real effort to get older MPs to stand down since 2001, that's helped.
In the last 19 years only one Tory MP has died in office, and that was 13 years ago.
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
If the Brexit Party don’t win by at least 10,000 votes then they are doomed.
If the Brexit Party win Peterborough they are heading for over 200 MPs on UNS
In November 2014 UKIP won the Rochester by election by nearly 3,000 votes, a few months later they lost the seat by 7,000 votes.
By election swings/results are seldom replicated at subsequent general elections.
Quite. See also: failure of the Christchurch and Newbury by-elections to result in the Lib Dem conquest of Southern England in 1997.
As an aside, thanks to the wonder of Wikipedia I discovered that there were no less than 18 by-elections during the 1992-97 Parliament, 16 of which were triggered by the death of the incumbent. One imagines that the average MP is rather younger and fitter than those of previous generations.
The Tories in particular have made a real effort to get older MPs to stand down since 2001 onwards, that's helped.
In the last 19 years only one Tory MP has died in office, and that was 13 years ago.
The key is to have younger MPs who go in already with fossilised opinions, so they don't need to turn into fossils.
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
logical_song said: « hide previous quotes rpjs said: O/T but about betting. I am here for the political comment and gossip, and am not normally a gambler. However last night I dreamt a very specific future sport result (Croatia to beat Brazil 7 - 2 to win the 2020 World Cup(!), if anyone's interested) and I am tempted to make a small flutter. I am resident in the US which doesn't like sport betting online (except for from NJ currently, and I have standards). I do have UK-issued debit/credit cards but these are associated with my US address.
Can any other PB expats recommend a UK or other online betting site that will take a UK card that has a non-UK billing address? I have a VPN that can give me a UK IP address.
A UKIP address???? United Kingdom-located Internet Protocol address for the pedantic.
I am based in the US and have UK bank accounts also. I bet using a Sky Bet account in the browser with the Nord VPN enabled. All works fine
Access is the obvious one: and they've thought of it:
""We faced some quite major technical challenges to this building, the biggest one being how to actually get into the pool," said Compass Pool's swimming pool designer and technical director Alex Kemsley in an interview on the company's website. "The solution is based on the door of a submarine, coupled with a rotating spiral staircase which rises from the pool floor when someone wants to get in or out -- the absolute cutting edge of swimming pool and building design and a little bit James Bond to boot!""
I can't really see such a mechanism working in the medium- or long-term though.
I can see other complexities (e.g. how to stop it overflowing, how to fill it up etc), but I assume infinity pools already have those sussed.
Based on a submarine? Perhaps I'm only saying this because I'm claustrophobic, but that sounds HORRIBLY claustrophobic!
Going to give that a miss, I think. Stick to the Hampstead Ponds. You can go naked in there if you feel like it.
@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago More Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.
And just what would you say in their position? The polling stations are still open.
Access is the obvious one: and they've thought of it:
""We faced some quite major technical challenges to this building, the biggest one being how to actually get into the pool," said Compass Pool's swimming pool designer and technical director Alex Kemsley in an interview on the company's website. "The solution is based on the door of a submarine, coupled with a rotating spiral staircase which rises from the pool floor when someone wants to get in or out -- the absolute cutting edge of swimming pool and building design and a little bit James Bond to boot!""
I can't really see such a mechanism working in the medium- or long-term though.
I can see other complexities (e.g. how to stop it overflowing, how to fill it up etc), but I assume infinity pools already have those sussed.
I think it's a hoax. Infinity pools overflow into a drain with a wall that's lower than the pool edge, which is what provides the effect.
Who needs a drain when the water can just fall off the building.
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
If the Brexit Party don’t win by at least 10,000 votes then they are doomed.
If the Brexit Party win Peterborough they are heading for over 200 MPs on UNS
In November 2014 UKIP won the Rochester by election by nearly 3,000 votes, a few months later they lost the seat by 7,000 votes.
By election swings/results are seldom replicated at subsequent general elections.
Quite. See also: failure of the Christchurch and Newbury by-elections to result in the Lib Dem conquest of Southern England in 1997.
As an aside, thanks to the wonder of Wikipedia I discovered that there were no less than 18 by-elections during the 1992-97 Parliament, 16 of which were triggered by the death of the incumbent. One imagines that the average MP is rather younger and fitter than those of previous generations.
IIRC the death of Judith Chaplin that triggered the Newbury by-election was as a result of complications after routine surgery. The other by-election that stands out was caused by the untimely death of Stephen Milligan, the intrigue into his death remains to this date. The Eastleigh by-election was another epic LD win of course. The other Tory deaths which notable which were older parliamentarians such as Robert Adley (Christchurch) or Geoffrey Dickens (Littleborough and Saddleworth). There were some deaths toward the end of the parliament but the die was cast by that stage and Labour were streets ahead.
@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago More Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.
Well known tactic for parties campaigning on polling day to GOTV
@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago More Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.
And just what would you say in their position? The polling stations are still open.
I'm hearing Labour win. However I am not sure where the voices are coming from. Might be Peterborough but I couldn't swear to it.
Market still calling it clearly for the BP.
Hearing it from whom. From the Labour team on the ground? I felt positive about the local elections having been on the doors and found that our data was solid and Labour pledges still said they were Labour.
@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago More Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.
Well known tactic for parties campaigning on polling day to GOTV
On the Daily Mail website Nigel Farage is pictured getting shit faced in a Peterborough pub. So either he expects to win hands down or he is not going to do very well. Bad form taking the voters for granted either way...
Peterborough by election: Look out for the shy Official Monster Raving Loony vote. If, as I hope, the Monsters beat the Conservatives, that really will be the end, as it was for the SDP
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
Yes, it's been a while since we read people saying that all those new Labour members just sat around hammering keyboards. The membership remains as feisty as ever. I don't think it's going to be quite enough, but I wish I could have been there today.
Ironically (check with Jeremy that I'm using the word correctly) Momentum groups appear to have picked up the "come to Peterborough with us, organise a lift, etc etc" game almost simultaneously with the revelations of the Labour candidate's woeful track record on anti-Jewish racism.
Really? Turning out to help the party they support in a by election is now evidence of anti-semitism?
When the candidate is an anti-semite that would be yes.
I think throwing serious accusations like that around on flimsy evidence is not just irresponsible, but doesn't really show much respect for the victims of antisemitism over the centuries.
"The government official in charge of delivering Brexit border arrangements, including emergency plans for Dover and Ireland in the event of no deal, has quit just two years into her job.
"Karen Wheeler, the director general of Her Majesty’s Revenue & Customs Brexit border delivery group, was the lead official co-ordinating a cross-Whitehall response involving police, ports, customs and freight interests."
@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago More Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.
Well known tactic for parties campaigning on polling day to GOTV
On the Daily Mail website Nigel Farage is pictured getting shit faced in a Peterborough pub. So either he expects to win hands down or he is not going to do very well. Bad form taking the voters for granted either way...
I don’t think holding a pint in his hand can be described as getting shit faced
I'm hearing Labour win. However I am not sure where the voices are coming from. Might be Peterborough but I couldn't swear to it.
Market still calling it clearly for the BP.
Hearing it from whom. From the Labour team on the ground? I felt positive about the local elections having been on the doors and found that our data was solid and Labour pledges still said they were Labour.
If Labour do lose Peterborough it won’t be because they didn’t try and get their vote out .
Looks like a huge GOTV operation , activists being bussed in from all around the country.
Yes, it's been a while since we read people saying that all those new Labour members just sat around hammering keyboards. The membership remains as feisty as ever. I don't think it's going to be quite enough, but I wish I could have been there today.
Ironically (check with Jeremy that I'm using the word correctly) Momentum groups appear to have picked up the "come to Peterborough with us, organise a lift, etc etc" game almost simultaneously with the revelations of the Labour candidate's woeful track record on anti-Jewish racism.
Really? Turning out to help the party they support in a by election is now evidence of anti-semitism?
When the candidate is an anti-semite that would be yes.
I think throwing serious accusations like that around on flimsy evidence is not just irresponsible, but doesn't really show much respect for the victims of antisemitism over the centuries.
I'm hearing Labour win. However I am not sure where the voices are coming from. Might be Peterborough but I couldn't swear to it.
Market still calling it clearly for the BP.
Hearing it from whom. From the Labour team on the ground? I felt positive about the local elections having been on the doors and found that our data was solid and Labour pledges still said they were Labour.
I'm hearing Labour win. However I am not sure where the voices are coming from. Might be Peterborough but I couldn't swear to it.
Market still calling it clearly for the BP.
Hearing it from whom. From the Labour team on the ground? I felt positive about the local elections having been on the doors and found that our data was solid and Labour pledges still said they were Labour.
They didn't turn out and vote of course...
What’s your gut feeling on tonight Mr Rochdale?
Brexit win, LibDems 2nd, Labour 3rd, Cons 4th
I think your probably right there , but the question is if this is how it plays out will Corbyn then be forced out?
@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago More Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.
Well known tactic for parties campaigning on polling day to GOTV
On the Daily Mail website Nigel Farage is pictured getting shit faced in a Peterborough pub. So either he expects to win hands down or he is not going to do very well. Bad form taking the voters for granted either way...
I don’t think holding a pint in his hand can be described as getting shit faced
I would be non-amazed to learn that he is a very moderate drinker. The pint is kinda like Wilson's pipe.
@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago More Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.
Well known tactic for parties campaigning on polling day to GOTV
On the Daily Mail website Nigel Farage is pictured getting shit faced in a Peterborough pub. So either he expects to win hands down or he is not going to do very well. Bad form taking the voters for granted either way...
I don’t think holding a pint in his hand can be described as getting shit faced
And isn't it the most likely to place to meet voters on election night?
Access is the obvious one: and they've thought of it:
""We faced some quite major technical challenges to this building, the biggest one being how to actually get into the pool," said Compass Pool's swimming pool designer and technical director Alex Kemsley in an interview on the company's website. "The solution is based on the door of a submarine, coupled with a rotating spiral staircase which rises from the pool floor when someone wants to get in or out -- the absolute cutting edge of swimming pool and building design and a little bit James Bond to boot!""
I can't really see such a mechanism working in the medium- or long-term though.
I can see other complexities (e.g. how to stop it overflowing, how to fill it up etc), but I assume infinity pools already have those sussed.
Based on a submarine? Perhaps I'm only saying this because I'm claustrophobic, but that sounds HORRIBLY claustrophobic!
(Snip).
Perhaps it's the description, bit I can't really visualise how it would work. And sealing it would problematic. But IANAE.
With the excitement in Denmark behind us, some interesting polling from countries due south.
First, an Infomap poll in Germany puts the Greens on 26% just ahead of the CDU/CSU on 25% with AfD on 13% and the SPD at a woeful 12%. Their new leadership will need to start turning things round quickly. The last time the SPD was fourth in a national election was 1907 but a lot has happened in Germany since then. To compare, a Forschunggruppe poll has the Union on 27% with the Greens on 26% and the AfD and SPD level on 13% so not a lot of difference.
Further south still into Austria and the latest poll shows the fragmentation of the three party system into something more interesting. The People's Party has a big lead with 37% with the SPD on 21% and Freedom on 20% but both NEOS and the Greens are on 10% which, as I've argued before, makes a People's Party-NEOS coalition for Kurz if he wins well in September.
Obviously on these numbers he could choose to govern alone and it might be welcome for him to have options which don't include either the SPD or Freedom.
@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago More Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.
Well known tactic for parties campaigning on polling day to GOTV
On the Daily Mail website Nigel Farage is pictured getting shit faced in a Peterborough pub. So either he expects to win hands down or he is not going to do very well. Bad form taking the voters for granted either way...
I don’t think holding a pint in his hand can be described as getting shit faced
He looks as though he has had a few, I have spent much time in the past in the company of heavy drinkers and they look at pints like that when they have had a few (usually too many). He cultivates an image as a heavy drinker anyway, so nobody has room to complain when he his alcohol consumption is questioned.
@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago More Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.
Well known tactic for parties campaigning on polling day to GOTV
On the Daily Mail website Nigel Farage is pictured getting shit faced in a Peterborough pub. So either he expects to win hands down or he is not going to do very well. Bad form taking the voters for granted either way...
I don’t think holding a pint in his hand can be described as getting shit faced
I would be non-amazed to learn that he is a very moderate drinker. The pint is kinda like Wilson's pipe.
I had heard Nige prefers champagne and cognac but that doesn't fit in with man of the plebs shtick.
@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago More Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.
Well known tactic for parties campaigning on polling day to GOTV
On the Daily Mail website Nigel Farage is pictured getting shit faced in a Peterborough pub. So either he expects to win hands down or he is not going to do very well. Bad form taking the voters for granted either way...
I don’t think holding a pint in his hand can be described as getting shit faced
I would be non-amazed to learn that he is a very moderate drinker. The pint is kinda like Wilson's pipe.
@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago More Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.
Well known tactic for parties campaigning on polling day to GOTV
On the Daily Mail website Nigel Farage is pictured getting shit faced in a Peterborough pub. So either he expects to win hands down or he is not going to do very well. Bad form taking the voters for granted either way...
I don’t think holding a pint in his hand can be described as getting shit faced
I would be non-amazed to learn that he is a very moderate drinker. The pint is kinda like Wilson's pipe.
I had heard Nige prefers champagne and cognac but that doesn't fit in with man of the plebs shtick.
LAB is strong in Peterborough because it has good voter data after winning the seat at GE2017. Farage's party hasn't got that sort of election machine.
Mirror interviews with voters in Peterborough, every one voting Brexit Party having previously voted Labour or Tory before apart from 1 Remainer still deciding between the LDs and Labour
If the Brexit Party don’t win by at least 10,000 votes then they are doomed.
If the Brexit Party win Peterborough they are heading for over 200 MPs on UNS
In November 2014 UKIP won the Rochester by election by nearly 3,000 votes, a few months later they lost the seat by 7,000 votes.
By election swings/results are seldom replicated at subsequent general elections.
UKIP never led a Westminster poll though as the Brexit Party have now done already with Opinium.
Medway also had a slightly bigger Leave vote than Peterborough 64% to 60%
I've also lived through the Cleggam when the Lib Dems led in the polls and they ended up making a net loss of seats a few weeks later.
An accurate poll would have shown Clegg on 24% in 2010, up a point from last time (rounded). The polls did slightly overstate him but on a % basis he did fine. Similiarly Miliband achieved a 0.3% swing toward Labour from the Tories in 2015. But the narrative is not based on %s in isolation in the final poll, it's so crucial in our system where those votes are and also the split between other parties.
I hadn't noticed that the Labour candidate came close to winning the seat in 2015, yet Onasanya was chosen to fight the seat ahead of them in 2017. Given they have been described as a Corbynite earlier, I wonder why Onasanya got the nod ahead of them.
Access is the obvious one: and they've thought of it:
""We faced some quite major technical challenges to this building, the biggest one being how to actually get into the pool," said Compass Pool's swimming pool designer and technical director Alex Kemsley in an interview on the company's website. "The solution is based on the door of a submarine, coupled with a rotating spiral staircase which rises from the pool floor when someone wants to get in or out -- the absolute cutting edge of swimming pool and building design and a little bit James Bond to boot!""
I can't really see such a mechanism working in the medium- or long-term though.
I can see other complexities (e.g. how to stop it overflowing, how to fill it up etc), but I assume infinity pools already have those sussed.
I think it's a hoax. Infinity pools overflow into a drain with a wall that's lower than the pool edge, which is what provides the effect.
LAB is strong in Peterborough because it has good voter data after winning the seat at GE2017. Farage's party hasn't got that sort of election machine.
I'm hearing that LAB running close
On the Labour front, it is variously reported that their GOTV operation and local data are strong, and that a large proportion of their likely voters are staying at home or turning out for other parties. It rather depends on whom one listens to.
Ultimately, I don't know how much notice we ought to take of any of these reports, given that none of the sources for them has the foggiest as to which parties all the voters who turned out, or a representative sample thereof, actually voted for. One would imagine that the first realistic estimates of the result will only come a couple of hours before the declaration, once people have had a chance to see where the first few thousand votes to be counted have started to stack up.
I have absolutely no idea how Peterborough's going to go aside from gut instinct. The Brexit Party have momentum (but not Momentum), so I find it hard to see past them.
It'll be interesting to see how a single Brexit Party MP does.
LAB is strong in Peterborough because it has good voter data after winning the seat at GE2017. Farage's party hasn't got that sort of election machine.
Labour often has an uncanny ability to dig voters out the ground in by-elections. Noone saw the absolute scale of their win coming in Oldham West & Royton a few years back.
I have absolutely no idea how Peterborough's going to go aside from gut instinct. The Brexit Party have momentum (but not Momentum), so I find it hard to see past them.
It'll be interesting to see how a single Brexit Party MP does.
If in doubt, head through the same lobbies as Kate Hoey ?
LAB is strong in Peterborough because it has good voter data after winning the seat at GE2017. Farage's party hasn't got that sort of election machine.
I'm hearing that LAB running close
'Running close' is an admission of defeat.
I feel confident people could find examples of parties saying it was close, when they win comfortably. Not saying Labour have done that, but it seems like a stock phrase, which we cannot really infer much of use.
LAB is strong in Peterborough because it has good voter data after winning the seat at GE2017. Farage's party hasn't got that sort of election machine.
I'm hearing that LAB running close
Old data is next to useless in the current political climate. The question is whether they have done enough door knocking to get new data.
Comments
https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1136634362194210816?s=21
https://twitter.com/LibdemBeki/status/1136513312663977984?s=20
""We faced some quite major technical challenges to this building, the biggest one being how to actually get into the pool," said Compass Pool's swimming pool designer and technical director Alex Kemsley in an interview on the company's website.
"The solution is based on the door of a submarine, coupled with a rotating spiral staircase which rises from the pool floor when someone wants to get in or out -- the absolute cutting edge of swimming pool and building design and a little bit James Bond to boot!""
I can't really see such a mechanism working in the medium- or long-term though.
I can see other complexities (e.g. how to stop it overflowing, how to fill it up etc), but I assume infinity pools already have those sussed.
Today they are remaining silent (breaking Pledge 3) on the expressions of antisemitism endorsed by the Peterborough Labour candidate (chosen by the same CLP that picked a Holocaust Denier for council, then bullied those who reported it out of the party).
They are not standing with Jewish comrades, who called for the Labour candidate to stand down, and are working to ensure that Antisemitism's place in the Labour Movement is in Parliament (breaking Pledge 2).
This behaviour is not compatible with claiming to have a leadership role in tackling Antisemitism. It is to minimise antisemitism by proving that it has no negative consequences to a Labour career. (breaking Pledge 1).
I anticipate the Peterborough data will be pretty accurate - having taken the seat in 2017 they will know where the Labour pledges are. However, I wouldn't have a lot of confidence that 2017 pledges translate into 2019 votes - aside from the national insanity we had the Labour MP pervert the course of justice and be sacked, and the new candidate who is embroiled in an anti-semitism scandal.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/meet-voters-peterborough-brexit-party-16260678
I'd like to imagine that Labour will get completely caned in that by-election, but I don't see it happening sadly.
(Not really)
@britainelects
2m2 minutes ago
More
Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.
By election swings/results are seldom replicated at subsequent general elections.
Look out for the shy Official Monster Raving Loony vote.
If, as I hope, the Monsters beat the Conservatives, that really will be the end, as it was for the SDP
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rpjs said:
O/T but about betting. I am here for the political comment and gossip, and am not normally a gambler. However last night I dreamt a very specific future sport result (Croatia to beat Brazil 7 - 2 to win the 2020 World Cup(!), if anyone's interested) and I am tempted to make a small flutter. I am resident in the US which doesn't like sport betting online (except for from NJ currently, and I have standards). I do have UK-issued debit/credit cards but these are associated with my US address.
Can any other PB expats recommend a UK or other online betting site that will take a UK card that has a non-UK billing address? I have a VPN that can give me a UK IP address.
A UKIP address????
United Kingdom-located Internet Protocol address for the pedantic.
I am based in the US and have UK bank accounts also. I bet using a Sky Bet account in the browser with the Nord VPN enabled. All works fine
Medway also had a slightly bigger Leave vote than Peterborough 64% to 60%
As an aside, thanks to the wonder of Wikipedia I discovered that there were no less than 18 by-elections during the 1992-97 Parliament, 16 of which were triggered by the death of the incumbent. One imagines that the average MP is rather younger and fitter than those of previous generations.
Market still calling it clearly for the BP.
They didn't turn out and vote of course...
In the last 19 years only one Tory MP has died in office, and that was 13 years ago.
Going to give that a miss, I think. Stick to the Hampstead Ponds. You can go naked in there if you feel like it.
Who needs a drain when the water can just fall off the building.
People below will just think it's rain.
It is London.
https://twitter.com/Ladbrokes/status/1136719098136735746
"The government official in charge of delivering Brexit border arrangements, including emergency plans for Dover and Ireland in the event of no deal, has quit just two years into her job.
"Karen Wheeler, the director general of Her Majesty’s Revenue & Customs Brexit border delivery group, was the lead official co-ordinating a cross-Whitehall response involving police, ports, customs and freight interests."
Dan: De Ligt looking like a ready made replacement for Phil Jones
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4v3zQj8ZkI
With the excitement in Denmark behind us, some interesting polling from countries due south.
First, an Infomap poll in Germany puts the Greens on 26% just ahead of the CDU/CSU on 25% with AfD on 13% and the SPD at a woeful 12%. Their new leadership will need to start turning things round quickly. The last time the SPD was fourth in a national election was 1907 but a lot has happened in Germany since then. To compare, a Forschunggruppe poll has the Union on 27% with the Greens on 26% and the AfD and SPD level on 13% so not a lot of difference.
Further south still into Austria and the latest poll shows the fragmentation of the three party system into something more interesting. The People's Party has a big lead with 37% with the SPD on 21% and Freedom on 20% but both NEOS and the Greens are on 10% which, as I've argued before, makes a People's Party-NEOS coalition for Kurz if he wins well in September.
Obviously on these numbers he could choose to govern alone and it might be welcome for him to have options which don't include either the SPD or Freedom.
He looks as though he has had a few, I have spent much time in the past in the company of heavy drinkers and they look at pints like that when they have had a few (usually too many). He cultivates an image as a heavy drinker anyway, so nobody has room to complain when he his alcohol consumption is questioned.
BXP 35%
Labour 25%
LDs 22%
Tories 10%
Green 4%
Though I would not be surprised if it was a bit close between first and second, though I do expect BXP to win.
https://www.ft.com/content/864c3a96-fbf1-11e5-b5f5-070dca6d0a0d
I'm hearing that LAB running close
The polls did slightly overstate him but on a % basis he did fine. Similiarly Miliband achieved a 0.3% swing toward Labour from the Tories in 2015.
But the narrative is not based on %s in isolation in the final poll, it's so crucial in our system where those votes are and also the split between other parties.
Ultimately, I don't know how much notice we ought to take of any of these reports, given that none of the sources for them has the foggiest as to which parties all the voters who turned out, or a representative sample thereof, actually voted for. One would imagine that the first realistic estimates of the result will only come a couple of hours before the declaration, once people have had a chance to see where the first few thousand votes to be counted have started to stack up.
It'll be interesting to see how a single Brexit Party MP does.