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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s no automaticity that the next Tory leader becomes Prim

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Tories at 230/490, the thing is I think they'll be off to 1000.0 at 10:05.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Is it not possible this is a ruse by TM to influence the leadership election and get soft brexiteer elected , continuity May in place. A grave error for the conservatives to make if a hard brexiteer isn’t on the final ballot
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Pulpstar said:

    Tabman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    Indeed. Which is why the only way this can get resolved is with a general election.

    The House is deadlocked and that's been obvious since that exit poll came out on 8th June 2017,
    Sure: but there is also the very real risk that the election throws up a result that is even more deadlocked. Or worse, a democratic aberration, where the parties with the most seats did not get the most votes. Imagine a BXP + Con getting more votes than LD + Lab, but the latter getting a majority. That'd be a recipe for f*cked politics for a decade.
    We're likely to have a position where at least one party has fewer votes, but many more seats (I'm looking at you Labour) than other parties. That is a huge democratic clusterf**k.
    Plenty of those stronghold seats are near the western end of the M62 corridor, ex coalfields and North east where the Brexit party are gathering strength ex-big cities and others in London which could turn to the Lib Dems though. If Labour really shit the bed and get say 16% their 180 odd "invincible" seats might just flip. Odds against but who knows.
    I live in hope!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kjohnw said:

    A grave error for the conservatives to make if a hard brexiteer isn’t on the final ballot

    A grave error if they are.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    Tabman said:

    Tabman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    Indeed. Which is why the only way this can get resolved is with a general election.

    The House is deadlocked and that's been obvious since that exit poll came out on 8th June 2017,
    Sure: but there is also the very real risk that the election throws up a result that is even more deadlocked. Or worse, a democratic aberration, where the parties with the most seats did not get the most votes. Imagine a BXP + Con getting more votes than LD + Lab, but the latter getting a majority. That'd be a recipe for f*cked politics for a decade.
    We're likely to have a position where at least one party has fewer votes, but many more seats (I'm looking at you Labour) than other parties. That is a huge democratic clusterf**k.
    I'd expect to see the mother of all tactical voting campaigns (and possibly tactical alliances between parties) at the next election. The vagaries of FPTP will be explained at every opportunity by arch-Remainers and Leavers, with their own tips on achieving maximum seats and votes in the new HoC.
    You have more fatih in the interest and nouse of the electorate than I do!
    You make a strong point. I think my faith is more in the power of Remain/Leave to trump party loyalty this time, and for people on both sides to make a passionate case for vote-lending. Whether the effects of those cancel each other out, or indeed make no headway, is a fair discussion to have.

    But even if the main parties stick together this time, I'm not sure their voters will do so as tribally as in previous campaigns.. which opens the way for FPTP to be gamed more effectively.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Afternoon all :)

    Having "confidence" doesn't necessarily entail having a majority.

    Currently, the Conservatives have 313 out of 650 seats but take out the Speaker, the vacancy for Peterborough and the seven SF MPs and you're down to 641. You then have the 5 CUK MPs and the 16 Independents of one shade or another and you're down to 620 which would theoretically mean a Govt majority of 6.

    The question then is would all the Opposition support a VONC proposed by Corbyn even if backed by the SNP and the LDs - if the DUP abstain, I make it 313-328 but again would all the Independents and CUK back a Corbyn VONC - if they all abstained, the Government would survive.

    It is a hanging offence not to support your party in a VONC - it is a hanging and ritual disembowelling offence to vote against your own party in a VONC - it just doesn't happen.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Oh god, great insight. Just acted on it and started moving betting positions from 'next PM' to 'next Tory leader'.

    Trouble is, I did it in a bit of a flap - most unlike me - and I think I have messed something up because I've ended up exposing myself (!) to Penny Mordaunt in both places.

    Is she running? I do hope not.
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155

    I had a look at the end of last year how a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister might play out. The circumstances have changed but some points remain applicable. In particular, Theresa May would not necessarily have to resign immediately:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/12/30/matters-of-confidence-what-to-expect-if-the-government-loses-a-vote-of-no-confidence/

    If (Clark standing down so unbuyable) Greive and a few others are promised safe seats, even ministerial posts, how many would refuse, and vote down a VONC knowing they will be out of a job?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    stodge said:

    it is a hanging and ritual disembowelling offence to vote against your own party in a VONC - it just doesn't happen.

    Unless you have already been deselected
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Seems like a lot of knicker wetting - can’t see any of the serious contenders not being able to get the DUP on side.

    As for any Con rebels - to go against a new leader in the first month after being installed on a vote of the members ? Nah - I’m not having it.

    Oh, you may not wish it to, but it will happen. Boris has made some serious enemies, but more importantly there are some that have genuine principles and will never support him. I would predict a conservative estimate (pun intended) at least 4 defections based on strong evidence. Swivel-eyed members who think they should foist a Brexit charlatan on a parliamentary party that does not want him will be in for a shock. Hopefully the more sensible will have second thoughts like they did with David Davis.
    “It will happen”

    Interested in a bet on that ?
    Well in spite of my long running following of this site, I have to confess I don't bet! I don't disapprove of others doing so, but it is a family thing not to do so.
    Not even a small wager for charity and honour ?

    Say £20 that Boris doesn't lose a VONC before he takes the dispatch box as PM to the winners charity of choice. Void if he doesn't become leader.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    The 313 Tories is Soubry, Allen, Wollaston and Boles from a starting point of 317 right ?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited June 2019
    kjohnw said:

    Is it not possible this is a ruse by TM to influence the leadership election and get soft brexiteer elected , continuity May in place.

    Yes probably.

    As usual when May does politics it's bound to end in disaster... We'll probably end up with two "hard" Brexiteers on the ballot paper. :D
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    Pulpstar said:

    Maybe Bercow could initiate indicative votes on potential PMs that might command a majority across the house. Ken Clarke perhaps?

    There's a Lord Bridges of Headley in the next PM market. Any idea who he is ?
    I had no idea before I asked Wiki:

    James George Robert Bridges, Baron Bridges of Headley, MBE is a British politician. He served as Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State at the Department for Exiting the European Union. Wikipedia
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    Tabman said:

    Tabman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:


    So if the remainer MPs can no-confidence out a leaver leader, what is to stop the alternative?

    Why shouldn't the Brexit-supporting Tory MPs say that they also will no-confidence any leader who does not have WTO on the table?

    Two sides can play at that game.

    Indeed. Which is why the only way this can get resolved is with a general election.

    The House is deadlocked and that's been obvious since that exit poll came out on 8th June 2017,
    Sure: but there is also the very real risk that the election throws up a result that is even more deadlocked. Or worse, a democratic aberration, where the parties with the most seats did not get the most votes. Imagine a BXP + Con getting more votes than LD + Lab, but the latter getting a majority. That'd be a recipe for f*cked politics for a decade.
    We're likely to have a position where at least one party has fewer votes, but many more seats (I'm looking at you Labour) than other parties. That is a huge democratic clusterf**k.
    I'd expect to see the mother of all tactical voting campaigns (and possibly tactical alliances between parties) at the next election. The vagaries of FPTP will be explained at every opportunity by arch-Remainers and Leavers, with their own tips on achieving maximum seats and votes in the new HoC.
    You have more fatih in the interest and nouse of the electorate than I do!
    You make a strong point. I think my faith is more in the power of Remain/Leave to trump party loyalty this time, and for people on both sides to make a passionate case for vote-lending. Whether the effects of those cancel each other out, or indeed make no headway, is a fair discussion to have.

    But even if the main parties stick together this time, I'm not sure their voters will do so as tribally as in previous campaigns.. which opens the way for FPTP to be gamed more effectively.
    It's a fair point.

    I suppose it was foreshadowed (though on a much lower turnout) in the Euro Elections. Metropolitan liberals voting LD or Green; Town-based conservatives voting BP.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:
    I hear Jeb Bush is about to put out another manifesto.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Having "confidence" doesn't necessarily entail having a majority.

    Currently, the Conservatives have 313 out of 650 seats but take out the Speaker, the vacancy for Peterborough and the seven SF MPs and you're down to 641. You then have the 5 CUK MPs and the 16 Independents of one shade or another and you're down to 620 which would theoretically mean a Govt majority of 6.

    The question then is would all the Opposition support a VONC proposed by Corbyn even if backed by the SNP and the LDs - if the DUP abstain, I make it 313-328 but again would all the Independents and CUK back a Corbyn VONC - if they all abstained, the Government would survive.

    It is a hanging offence not to support your party in a VONC - it is a hanging and ritual disembowelling offence to vote against your own party in a VONC - it just doesn't happen.

    So you are saying we should buy shares in John Major's dentist?
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    And to add to that - all parties place a premium on not letting voters lose the habit of voting for them. Once broken, it's easier to break again.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    Would a VONC be carried? DUP, Change, Alternative, assorted independents - would these really want a GE?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    I wonder how long before we are told by El Farridge that it is the will-o-the-people that parliament should be prorogued and he be named as Lord Protector of Brexshit
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    argyllrs said:

    I had a look at the end of last year how a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister might play out. The circumstances have changed but some points remain applicable. In particular, Theresa May would not necessarily have to resign immediately:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/12/30/matters-of-confidence-what-to-expect-if-the-government-loses-a-vote-of-no-confidence/

    If (Clark standing down so unbuyable) Greive and a few others are promised safe seats, even ministerial posts, how many would refuse, and vote down a VONC knowing they will be out of a job?
    They seem pretty keen on thwarting Brexit, even at the cost of their own careers.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Scott_P said:

    stodge said:

    it is a hanging and ritual disembowelling offence to vote against your own party in a VONC - it just doesn't happen.

    Unless you have already been deselected
    If you have been elected as an MP for a Party and, for whatever reason, you are effectively sacked as an MP by your Party, you wouldn't remain with the caucus of the Party via the Whip - you'd become Independent or join another Party so the rules wouldn't apply.

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    RobD said:

    argyllrs said:

    I had a look at the end of last year how a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister might play out. The circumstances have changed but some points remain applicable. In particular, Theresa May would not necessarily have to resign immediately:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/12/30/matters-of-confidence-what-to-expect-if-the-government-loses-a-vote-of-no-confidence/

    If (Clark standing down so unbuyable) Greive and a few others are promised safe seats, even ministerial posts, how many would refuse, and vote down a VONC knowing they will be out of a job?
    They seem pretty keen on thwarting Brexit, even at the cost of their own careers.
    Brexiters, on the other hand, seem pretty keen on thwarting our economy at the cost of other peoples' careers
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Having "confidence" doesn't necessarily entail having a majority.

    Currently, the Conservatives have 313 out of 650 seats but take out the Speaker, the vacancy for Peterborough and the seven SF MPs and you're down to 641. You then have the 5 CUK MPs and the 16 Independents of one shade or another and you're down to 620 which would theoretically mean a Govt majority of 6.

    The question then is would all the Opposition support a VONC proposed by Corbyn even if backed by the SNP and the LDs - if the DUP abstain, I make it 313-328 but again would all the Independents and CUK back a Corbyn VONC - if they all abstained, the Government would survive.

    It is a hanging offence not to support your party in a VONC - it is a hanging and ritual disembowelling offence to vote against your own party in a VONC - it just doesn't happen.

    But Europe is an issue that, for quite a few people in politics, is even more important than party loyalty. It was primarily Europe that drove the SDP out of the Labour Party in the early 1980s and Europe has already driven the three erstwhile Tiggers out of the Tories. People like Grieve and Gymiah will have no future in Johnson's Tory Party - they might as well go down fighting for a cause they truly believe in.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    argyllrs said:

    I had a look at the end of last year how a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister might play out. The circumstances have changed but some points remain applicable. In particular, Theresa May would not necessarily have to resign immediately:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/12/30/matters-of-confidence-what-to-expect-if-the-government-loses-a-vote-of-no-confidence/

    If (Clark standing down so unbuyable) Greive and a few others are promised safe seats, even ministerial posts, how many would refuse, and vote down a VONC knowing they will be out of a job?
    They seem pretty keen on thwarting Brexit, even at the cost of their own careers.
    Brexiters, on the other hand, seem pretty keen on thwarting our economy at the cost of other peoples' careers
    I can't tell you how much pleasure the misery of others brings me.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited June 2019

    I wonder how long before we are told by El Farridge that it is the will-o-the-people that parliament should be prorogued and he be named as Lord Protector of Brexshit
    This Farridge stuff really makes you look a dick, you know. He’s enough of a blight without your remedial level humour.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    matt said:

    I wonder how long before we are told by El Farridge that it is the will-o-the-people that parliament should be prorogued and he be named as Lord Protector of Brexshit
    This Farridge stuff really makes you look a dick, you know. He’s enough of a blight without your remedial level humour.
    And Brexshit. I thought that went out of fashion a long time ago.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Tories out to 230/490 in Peterborough !

    230/490 = 23/49 or very close to 1/2 ... that is a good favourite territory ;)
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    matt said:

    I wonder how long before we are told by El Farridge that it is the will-o-the-people that parliament should be prorogued and he be named as Lord Protector of Brexshit
    This Farridge stuff really makes you look a dick, you know. He’s enough of a blight without your remedial level humour.
    Only to those that worship the nasty little fascist. Calling someone else a dick also has a strange symmetry to it, reflecting on the dickishness of the accuser. Is your name Richard rather than Matt in the real world?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    argyllrs said:

    I had a look at the end of last year how a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister might play out. The circumstances have changed but some points remain applicable. In particular, Theresa May would not necessarily have to resign immediately:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/12/30/matters-of-confidence-what-to-expect-if-the-government-loses-a-vote-of-no-confidence/

    If (Clark standing down so unbuyable) Greive and a few others are promised safe seats, even ministerial posts, how many would refuse, and vote down a VONC knowing they will be out of a job?
    They seem pretty keen on thwarting Brexit, even at the cost of their own careers.
    Brexiters, on the other hand, seem pretty keen on thwarting our economy at the cost of other peoples' careers
    I can't tell you how much pleasure the misery of others brings me.
    As you are a vocal supporter of a national self-harming project that does not surprise me. Congratulations on your self awareness.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    Tories out to 230/490 in Peterborough !

    230/490 = 23/49 or very close to 1/2 ... that is a good favourite territory ;)
    Last matched 490.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    RobD said:

    matt said:

    I wonder how long before we are told by El Farridge that it is the will-o-the-people that parliament should be prorogued and he be named as Lord Protector of Brexshit
    This Farridge stuff really makes you look a dick, you know. He’s enough of a blight without your remedial level humour.
    And Brexshit. I thought that went out of fashion a long time ago.
    It is making a return, now that Project Fear has become Project Reality
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Come on Nige - take the bet...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    argyllrs said:

    I had a look at the end of last year how a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister might play out. The circumstances have changed but some points remain applicable. In particular, Theresa May would not necessarily have to resign immediately:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/12/30/matters-of-confidence-what-to-expect-if-the-government-loses-a-vote-of-no-confidence/

    If (Clark standing down so unbuyable) Greive and a few others are promised safe seats, even ministerial posts, how many would refuse, and vote down a VONC knowing they will be out of a job?
    They seem pretty keen on thwarting Brexit, even at the cost of their own careers.
    Brexiters, on the other hand, seem pretty keen on thwarting our economy at the cost of other peoples' careers
    I can't tell you how much pleasure the misery of others brings me.
    As you are a vocal supporter of a national self-harming project that does not surprise me. Congratulations on your self awareness.
    lol, I’m a vocal supporter?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tories out to 230/490 in Peterborough !

    230/490 = 23/49 or very close to 1/2 ... that is a good favourite territory ;)
    Last matched 490.
    It was a joke.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    TGOHF said:

    Come on Nige - take the bet...

    happy to take the forfeit "bet" if you are. There is a possibility that the three people I know are planning to resign if Boris becomes leader chicken out, but for my statement I only need 1 to do so. I am happy with the forfeit if it doesn't happen, tho I think it is now very likely that the lying little toad doesn't get the top job anyway, and then we are both saved from PB humilation.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    As I have said on here many times, the traditional safety valve of our system is a GE. I would say we have to have one this autumn and another one in Nov/Dec if the first produces a hung parliament.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741


    But Europe is an issue that, for quite a few people in politics, is even more important than party loyalty. It was primarily Europe that drove the SDP out of the Labour Party in the early 1980s and Europe has already driven the three erstwhile Tiggers out of the Tories. People like Grieve and Gymiah will have no future in Johnson's Tory Party - they might as well go down fighting for a cause they truly believe in.

    Then, as Parliament is as much theatre as it is debating chamber, they "cross the floor" in the VONC debate with epithets such as "country before party" or "I have not left the Party, it has left me" etc.

    Your point about Grieve and Gyimah is the same point you could make about those who have stayed loyal to Corbyn in Labour despite publicly and frequently criticising their leader. It takes time and perhaps an election defeat or two but parties do change. It may be some will consider precipitating the fall of a Government and defeat in a GE might be a small price to get to stop the lunatics controlling the asylum.

    The problem is, as so many claim, the alternative, a Corbyn-led Government, would be worse.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    Off Topic:

    "Solar installations in the UK fell 94% in the past month, with the Labour Party saying the government is “actively dismantling” the industry, The Guardian reports. New solar capacity dropped from 79 MW in March to 5 MW in April.

    A drop was expected after solar subsidies were phased out in the UK, but the decrease has been precipitated by lack of a clear policy on how solar homeowners would be affected. To wit:

    Instead, officials confirmed that new solar PV installations would be expected to give their unused clean power to energy companies for free until a new scheme is set up. A spokesman for the government said new proposals will be unveiled in the coming days."

    .... and the good news is parliament has declared a climate emergency.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    As I have said on here many times, the traditional safety valve of our system is a GE. I would say we have to have one this autumn and another one in Nov/Dec if the first produces a hung parliament.

    And when the second one also produces a hung parliament....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    PeterC said:

    Would a VONC be carried? DUP, Change, Alternative, assorted independents - would these really want a GE?

    DUP would prefer a GE to a crash out No Deal Brexit. (They'd reckon, probably correctly, that they'll all keep their seats. And in the event of Hard Brexiters winning, there would be the chance the EU blinked on the backstop. And if it was the soft Brexiters or Remainers, they'd be happy.)

    Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston, provided they were given a free run by the LDs would vote against the government. The rest of CUK - well, I would guess that because Corbyn's Labour is doing so badly, well... who knows?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited June 2019
    eek said:

    As I have said on here many times, the traditional safety valve of our system is a GE. I would say we have to have one this autumn and another one in Nov/Dec if the first produces a hung parliament.

    And when the second one also produces a hung parliament....
    We try again and again..., then Nigel Farage finally gets 95.30% of the vote in the November 2020 election.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    PeterC said:

    Would a VONC be carried? DUP, Change, Alternative, assorted independents - would these really want a GE?

    DUP would prefer a GE to a crash out No Deal Brexit. (They'd reckon, probably correctly, that they'll all keep their seats. And in the event of Hard Brexiters winning, there would be the chance the EU blinked on the backstop. And if it was the soft Brexiters or Remainers, they'd be happy.)

    Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston, provided they were given a free run by the LDs would vote against the government. The rest of CUK - well, I would guess that because Corbyn's Labour is doing so badly, well... who knows?
    Would the DUP really prefer that?

    They backed Brexit and the only softer Brexit includes the hated backstop.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    edited June 2019
    eek said:

    As I have said on here many times, the traditional safety valve of our system is a GE. I would say we have to have one this autumn and another one in Nov/Dec if the first produces a hung parliament.

    And when the second one also produces a hung parliament....
    For my money, a third one.

    But by then the public clamour for a 2nd vote may be unstoppable.

    I doubt it will come to that.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    argyllrs said:

    I had a look at the end of last year how a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister might play out. The circumstances have changed but some points remain applicable. In particular, Theresa May would not necessarily have to resign immediately:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/12/30/matters-of-confidence-what-to-expect-if-the-government-loses-a-vote-of-no-confidence/

    If (Clark standing down so unbuyable) Greive and a few others are promised safe seats, even ministerial posts, how many would refuse, and vote down a VONC knowing they will be out of a job?
    There are plenty of Conservatives who have firmly set their face against a no deal Brexit (something like 40 the last time I checked). The question is how far they will stick to their principles.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    edited June 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    As I have said on here many times, the traditional safety valve of our system is a GE. I would say we have to have one this autumn and another one in Nov/Dec if the first produces a hung parliament.

    And when the second one also produces a hung parliament....
    We try again and again..., then Nigel Farage finally gets 95.30% of the vote in the November 2020 election.
    Does he need that much to form a majority government? I would suggest Baxter's model can't cope with BXP if that is the case :lol:
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    edited June 2019
    This just gets messier and messier. Prorogation? May stuck in #10 because no one on either wing of the Tories has confidence? Abusing summer recess to avoid having a confidence vote before new leader has their shoes under the table?

    Sadly consistent with May - of all the things she's done wrong I've hated how she's ripped up parliamentary norms for partisan advantage: blocking a money resolution for a private members bill which passed second reading, refusing to vote on opposition day motions, taking 13 weeks to even respond to opposition day defeats, breaking pairing, pulling the meaningful vote once promised, leaks from not just cabinet meetings but National Security issues etc etc. It's no surprise to see the current nonsense and Theresa May has to take the blame.

    So honest answer - how do we get to the point where the Tories are a stable party of Government in 6 months. I can't see it right now. Gove leader, parliament forces long extension through, wins Tory vote of confidence in November? About the best I can do. Any better ideas?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    As I have said on here many times, the traditional safety valve of our system is a GE. I would say we have to have one this autumn and another one in Nov/Dec if the first produces a hung parliament.

    And when the second one also produces a hung parliament....
    We try again and again..., then Nigel Farage finally gets 95.30% of the vote in the November 2020 election.
    Does he need that much to form a majority government? I would suggest Baxter's model can't cope with BXP if that is the case :lol:
    All 661 650 seats to the Reichstag Commons.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited June 2019
    I think the (type of) next leader of the Conservatives will mostly be decided by if (and by how much) the Brexit party win today.

    This was both a Tory & Labour seat, and if TBP win big enough, then the shockwaves will affect all the candidates and what they start promising.

  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678
    GIN1138 said:

    I've always thought this is what happens.

    1. Parliament breaks for Summer receess sometime around 20th July.

    2. New Con leader elected around 22nd July (after recess has started)

    3. Con leader become PM around 22nd.

    4. Parliament returns 5th September and at that sitting the PM will move to dissolve the House and have a general election (so no need for VONC)

    5. General election 17th October

    Still think that's broadly how things will work out but its possible Theresa May might stay on as PM until the result of the general election is known - however I think when the new Con leader takes over the pressure on her to leave Downing St will be so great that she'll do the hand over quite quickly.

    All roads lead to an Autumn election though. Sorry Brenda. :D

    1, 2 and 3 seem fine to me. But 4. Why?

    I think neither Labour nor the Cons will want a GE in light of recent events. I don't think either a VoNC or a move to dissolve Parliament will pass, no matter who is whipped. Too many snouts in the trough to risk an early election.
    Plus, we haven't time. We need to use September to crack on with trying to pass the deal/prepare for no deal/revoke as appropriate.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Boris-Farage alliance wins GE early October 2019?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Having "confidence" doesn't necessarily entail having a majority.

    Currently, the Conservatives have 313 out of 650 seats but take out the Speaker, the vacancy for Peterborough and the seven SF MPs and you're down to 641. You then have the 5 CUK MPs and the 16 Independents of one shade or another and you're down to 620 which would theoretically mean a Govt majority of 6.

    The question then is would all the Opposition support a VONC proposed by Corbyn even if backed by the SNP and the LDs - if the DUP abstain, I make it 313-328 but again would all the Independents and CUK back a Corbyn VONC - if they all abstained, the Government would survive.

    It is a hanging offence not to support your party in a VONC - it is a hanging and ritual disembowelling offence to vote against your own party in a VONC - it just doesn't happen.

    Woah, not so fast. The reason why we subtract the Speaker, the vacancy and the SF MPs is because they don't vote. But the 5 ChUKs and the 16 independents can and do vote, so you can't subtract them for majority purposes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Boris-Farage alliance wins GE early October 2019?

    Doubt it, Farage is looking for the destruction of the Tories to replace them on the centre right.. well ok right of British politics.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,959
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    As I have said on here many times, the traditional safety valve of our system is a GE. I would say we have to have one this autumn and another one in Nov/Dec if the first produces a hung parliament.

    And when the second one also produces a hung parliament....
    We try again and again..., then Nigel Farage finally gets 95.30% of the vote in the November 2020 election.
    Does he need that much to form a majority government? I would suggest Baxter's model can't cope with BXP if that is the case :lol:
    All 661 650 seats to the Reichstag Commons.
    Godwin alert. Next you’ll be comparing proroguing Parliament to the Enabling Act of 1933.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    edited June 2019
    stodge said:


    But Europe is an issue that, for quite a few people in politics, is even more important than party loyalty. It was primarily Europe that drove the SDP out of the Labour Party in the early 1980s and Europe has already driven the three erstwhile Tiggers out of the Tories. People like Grieve and Gymiah will have no future in Johnson's Tory Party - they might as well go down fighting for a cause they truly believe in.

    Then, as Parliament is as much theatre as it is debating chamber, they "cross the floor" in the VONC debate with epithets such as "country before party" or "I have not left the Party, it has left me" etc.

    Your point about Grieve and Gyimah is the same point you could make about those who have stayed loyal to Corbyn in Labour despite publicly and frequently criticising their leader. It takes time and perhaps an election defeat or two but parties do change. It may be some will consider precipitating the fall of a Government and defeat in a GE might be a small price to get to stop the lunatics controlling the asylum.

    The problem is, as so many claim, the alternative, a Corbyn-led Government, would be worse.
    The govt losing a VONC does not automatically mean a Corbyn led government. It could lead to a GNU, a general election or the selection of a new Tory PM.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    I think some people are overthinking this.

    Surely if Boris wins then on Day 1 he'll say he's going to get a deal blah blah blah.

    No Con MP is going to vote for a VONC on Day 1 - everyone will, at least initially, say they'll wait and see how things go.

    They may well vote for a VONC later - but that would be much nearer 31 October.

    So, in my view, Boris would be able to take over as PM.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    As I have said on here many times, the traditional safety valve of our system is a GE. I would say we have to have one this autumn and another one in Nov/Dec if the first produces a hung parliament.

    And when the second one also produces a hung parliament....
    We try again and again..., then Nigel Farage finally gets 95.30% of the vote in the November 2020 election.
    Does he need that much to form a majority government? I would suggest Baxter's model can't cope with BXP if that is the case :lol:
    All 661 650 seats to the Reichstag Commons.
    Godwin alert. Next you’ll be comparing proroguing Parliament to the Enabling Act of 1933.
    Tsk, we all know Hitler didn’t dissolve Parliament.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    GIN1138 said:

    I've always thought this is what happens.

    1. Parliament breaks for Summer receess sometime around 20th July.

    2. New Con leader elected around 22nd July (after recess has started)

    3. Con leader become PM around 22nd.

    4. Parliament returns 5th September and at that sitting the PM will move to dissolve the House and have a general election (so no need for VONC)

    5. General election 17th October

    Still think that's broadly how things will work out but its possible Theresa May might stay on as PM until the result of the general election is known - however I think when the new Con leader takes over the pressure on her to leave Downing St will be so great that she'll do the hand over quite quickly.

    All roads lead to an Autumn election though. Sorry Brenda. :D

    1, 2 and 3 seem fine to me. But 4. Why?

    I think neither Labour nor the Cons will want a GE in light of recent events. I don't think either a VoNC or a move to dissolve Parliament will pass, no matter who is whipped. Too many snouts in the trough to risk an early election.
    Plus, we haven't time. We need to use September to crack on with trying to pass the deal/prepare for no deal/revoke as appropriate.
    3 is where it falls down. May cannot ask the Queen to call Boris to the Palace as she knows (as will the Queen by then) that he cannot command the confidence. Enough Tory No Dealers will have made it plain they will not support him.

    The million dollar question is are there just enough wildly Leave/No deal Labour MPs like Hoey who would exit the Labour whip in order to support Boris in a confidence vote, to persuade May she can resign on time?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    If Boris looks on course to win, the Queen is about to be put in a position that she will most certainly not like.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Off Topic:

    "Solar installations in the UK fell 94% in the past month, with the Labour Party saying the government is “actively dismantling” the industry, The Guardian reports. New solar capacity dropped from 79 MW in March to 5 MW in April.

    A drop was expected after solar subsidies were phased out in the UK, but the decrease has been precipitated by lack of a clear policy on how solar homeowners would be affected. To wit:

    Instead, officials confirmed that new solar PV installations would be expected to give their unused clean power to energy companies for free until a new scheme is set up. A spokesman for the government said new proposals will be unveiled in the coming days."

    .... and the good news is parliament has declared a climate emergency.

    Elsewhere yesterday someone pointed me towards a 700w DIY solar installation kit for about £500 (it's 2 different items on ebay plus some cable). At that sort of price it makes sense if you can't export things as the solar panels will just be providing your own supply.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Having "confidence" doesn't necessarily entail having a majority.

    Currently, the Conservatives have 313 out of 650 seats but take out the Speaker, the vacancy for Peterborough and the seven SF MPs and you're down to 641. You then have the 5 CUK MPs and the 16 Independents of one shade or another and you're down to 620 which would theoretically mean a Govt majority of 6.

    The question then is would all the Opposition support a VONC proposed by Corbyn even if backed by the SNP and the LDs - if the DUP abstain, I make it 313-328 but again would all the Independents and CUK back a Corbyn VONC - if they all abstained, the Government would survive.

    It is a hanging offence not to support your party in a VONC - it is a hanging and ritual disembowelling offence to vote against your own party in a VONC - it just doesn't happen.

    Indeed.

    And surely the 5 MPs who have stayed within Change UK would not support a VONC - indeed I reckon they back the Govt.

    They are basically voting for 3 years salary + pension + expenses.

    The baseline is the Govt won the last VONC by 19 - quite a margin.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    GIN1138 said:

    I've always thought this is what happens.

    1. Parliament breaks for Summer receess sometime around 20th July.

    2. New Con leader elected around 22nd July (after recess has started)

    3. Con leader become PM around 22nd.

    4. Parliament returns 5th September and at that sitting the PM will move to dissolve the House and have a general election (so no need for VONC)

    5. General election 17th October

    Still think that's broadly how things will work out but its possible Theresa May might stay on as PM until the result of the general election is known - however I think when the new Con leader takes over the pressure on her to leave Downing St will be so great that she'll do the hand over quite quickly.

    All roads lead to an Autumn election though. Sorry Brenda. :D

    1, 2 and 3 seem fine to me. But 4. Why?

    I think neither Labour nor the Cons will want a GE in light of recent events. I don't think either a VoNC or a move to dissolve Parliament will pass, no matter who is whipped. Too many snouts in the trough to risk an early election.
    Plus, we haven't time. We need to use September to crack on with trying to pass the deal/prepare for no deal/revoke as appropriate.
    3 is where it falls down. May cannot ask the Queen to call Boris to the Palace as she knows (as will the Queen by then) that he cannot command the confidence. Enough Tory No Dealers will have made it plain they will not support him.

    The million dollar question is are there just enough wildly Leave/No deal Labour MPs like Hoey who would exit the Labour whip in order to support Boris in a confidence vote, to persuade May she can resign on time?
    Um No - why would you resign the whip to support the other side in what would likely be a failed vote.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    viewcode said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Having "confidence" doesn't necessarily entail having a majority.

    Currently, the Conservatives have 313 out of 650 seats but take out the Speaker, the vacancy for Peterborough and the seven SF MPs and you're down to 641. You then have the 5 CUK MPs and the 16 Independents of one shade or another and you're down to 620 which would theoretically mean a Govt majority of 6.

    The question then is would all the Opposition support a VONC proposed by Corbyn even if backed by the SNP and the LDs - if the DUP abstain, I make it 313-328 but again would all the Independents and CUK back a Corbyn VONC - if they all abstained, the Government would survive.

    It is a hanging offence not to support your party in a VONC - it is a hanging and ritual disembowelling offence to vote against your own party in a VONC - it just doesn't happen.

    Woah, not so fast. The reason why we subtract the Speaker, the vacancy and the SF MPs is because they don't vote. But the 5 ChUKs and the 16 independents can and do vote, so you can't subtract them for majority purposes.
    You need to subtract Bercow and his 2 deputies. Then the four tellers who will be Lab/Tory loyalists. Then all of Sinn Fein. That leaves 635 to vote. The Tories have a starting point of 310 (Eleanor Laing + 2 tellers)

    So 310 is the start point with 317.5 required from either adding others:
    Subtract 1 for Tory votes against
    Add 1 for Non Tory votes for
    Subtract 0.5 for Tory abstentions
    Add 0.5 for non Tory abstentions.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    eek said:

    Off Topic:

    "Solar installations in the UK fell 94% in the past month, with the Labour Party saying the government is “actively dismantling” the industry, The Guardian reports. New solar capacity dropped from 79 MW in March to 5 MW in April.

    A drop was expected after solar subsidies were phased out in the UK, but the decrease has been precipitated by lack of a clear policy on how solar homeowners would be affected. To wit:

    Instead, officials confirmed that new solar PV installations would be expected to give their unused clean power to energy companies for free until a new scheme is set up. A spokesman for the government said new proposals will be unveiled in the coming days."

    .... and the good news is parliament has declared a climate emergency.

    Elsewhere yesterday someone pointed me towards a 700w DIY solar installation kit for about £500 (it's 2 different items on ebay plus some cable). At that sort of price it makes sense if you can't export things as the solar panels will just be providing your own supply.

    The drop is exaggerated by a peak before a bounce after. If you have the choice of when to install, why wait until after you lose the tariff?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Ben Walker


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    #Peterborough:
    > 1/3 to 1/2 of the voters Labour are knocking up aren't turning out. 10% of the ones they do are against them.
    > Those at the polling stations are suggesting a higher turnout than #EP2019
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Off Topic:

    "Solar installations in the UK fell 94% in the past month, with the Labour Party saying the government is “actively dismantling” the industry, The Guardian reports. New solar capacity dropped from 79 MW in March to 5 MW in April.

    A drop was expected after solar subsidies were phased out in the UK, but the decrease has been precipitated by lack of a clear policy on how solar homeowners would be affected. To wit:

    Instead, officials confirmed that new solar PV installations would be expected to give their unused clean power to energy companies for free until a new scheme is set up. A spokesman for the government said new proposals will be unveiled in the coming days."

    .... and the good news is parliament has declared a climate emergency.

    I'd be curious to see more than just 2 data points.

    I may be mistaken but I believe there was a rush to get new solar installed by end of March in order to get it in on the old scheme. In which case the March figures could be artificially inflated and the April figures artificially deflated.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    MikeL said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Having "confidence" doesn't necessarily entail having a majority.

    Currently, the Conservatives have 313 out of 650 seats but take out the Speaker, the vacancy for Peterborough and the seven SF MPs and you're down to 641. You then have the 5 CUK MPs and the 16 Independents of one shade or another and you're down to 620 which would theoretically mean a Govt majority of 6.

    The question then is would all the Opposition support a VONC proposed by Corbyn even if backed by the SNP and the LDs - if the DUP abstain, I make it 313-328 but again would all the Independents and CUK back a Corbyn VONC - if they all abstained, the Government would survive.

    It is a hanging offence not to support your party in a VONC - it is a hanging and ritual disembowelling offence to vote against your own party in a VONC - it just doesn't happen.

    Indeed.

    And surely the 5 MPs who have stayed within Change UK would not support a VONC - indeed I reckon they back the Govt.

    They are basically voting for 3 years salary + pension + expenses.

    The baseline is the Govt won the last VONC by 19 - quite a margin.
    You are forgetting this is all about Brexit and the national interest. Soubry I am pretty sure will support a VONC to stop a Boris No Deal.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
    The Guardian:

    "No 10 retracts suggestion May could delay resignation until she is sure successor has confidence of Commons
    Downing Street has been in touch to say that the comments from the prime minister’s spokesman at lobby this morning (see 12.46pm) have been over-interpreted. A source said that there was “no question of the prime minister hanging around beyond the Conservative leadership contest”. The source said that when the spokesman talked about May needing to be able to tell the Queen that her successor could command the confidence of the Commons, he was just setting out the language used as a formality, not flagging up May’s intention to make this an issue.

    That does not mean that this might not become an issue. But when I asked the Number 10 source what might happen if Boris Johnson’s election as leader coincided with a group of 10 or so Tories announcing they would vote with Labour to bring down the government to stop a no-deal Brexit, the source would not speculate on what might happen. But he said May did not intend to hang around, and the briefing this morning was not meant to suggest otherwise."
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    rcs1000 said:

    PeterC said:

    Would a VONC be carried? DUP, Change, Alternative, assorted independents - would these really want a GE?

    DUP would prefer a GE to a crash out No Deal Brexit. (They'd reckon, probably correctly, that they'll all keep their seats. And in the event of Hard Brexiters winning, there would be the chance the EU blinked on the backstop. And if it was the soft Brexiters or Remainers, they'd be happy.)

    Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston, provided they were given a free run by the LDs would vote against the government. The rest of CUK - well, I would guess that because Corbyn's Labour is doing so badly, well... who knows?
    Would the DUP really prefer that?

    They backed Brexit and the only softer Brexit includes the hated backstop.
    The DUP want Northern Ireland to be part of the UK. So they have 2 desires, that NI isn't treated differently (so they don't want a NI only backstop) and they don't want a border vote after a No Deal exit where they will lose...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    edited June 2019
    May backtracking:

    Downing Street has been in touch to say that the comments from the prime minister’s spokesman at lobby this morning (see 12.46pm) have been over-interpreted. A source said that there was “no question of the prime minister hanging around beyond the Conservative leadership contest”. The source said that when the spokesman talked about May needing to be able to tell the Queen that her successor could command the confidence of the Commons, he was just setting out the language used as a formality, not flagging up May’s intention to make this an issue.

    Guardain
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    MikeL said:

    I think some people are overthinking this.

    Surely if Boris wins then on Day 1 he'll say he's going to get a deal blah blah blah.

    No Con MP is going to vote for a VONC on Day 1 - everyone will, at least initially, say they'll wait and see how things go.

    They may well vote for a VONC later - but that would be much nearer 31 October.

    So, in my view, Boris would be able to take over as PM.

    Yes, I think so.

    Boris Johnson will do whatever it takes to become PM. And after that he will do whatever it takes to stay there.

    It is the essence of the man.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    Ben Walker


    @spreadsheetben
    Follow Follow @spreadsheetben
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    #Peterborough:
    > 1/3 to 1/2 of the voters Labour are knocking up aren't turning out. 10% of the ones they do are against them.
    > Those at the polling stations are suggesting a higher turnout than #EP2019

    So does that mean 50% to 66% of Lab knock ups are turning out and between 45% and 58% of them are voting Lab?

    Somewhat better than LE and EE if so.

    Not enough to win if TBP take most of ex Tory share
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    May backtracking:

    Downing Street has been in touch to say that the comments from the prime minister’s spokesman at lobby this morning (see 12.46pm) have been over-interpreted. A source said that there was “no question of the prime minister hanging around beyond the Conservative leadership contest”. The source said that when the spokesman talked about May needing to be able to tell the Queen that her successor could command the confidence of the Commons, he was just setting out the language used as a formality, not flagging up May’s intention to make this an issue.

    Guardain

    Beep Beep Beep Beep

    :D
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2019

    Ben Walker


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    #Peterborough:
    > 1/3 to 1/2 of the voters Labour are knocking up aren't turning out. 10% of the ones they do are against them.
    > Those at the polling stations are suggesting a higher turnout than #EP2019

    Given they should only be knocking up promises that would be bad, but i’m deeply sceptical of this info.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    Boris-Farage alliance wins GE early October 2019?

    Maybe. But I think Corbyn/Sturgeon/Swinson shades it.

    In our culture war I reckon that the majority is just - JUST - with the cognescenti over the ignorami.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545

    Ben Walker


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    #Peterborough:
    > 1/3 to 1/2 of the voters Labour are knocking up aren't turning out. 10% of the ones they do are against them.
    > Those at the polling stations are suggesting a higher turnout than #EP2019

    Given they should only be knocking up promises that would be awful, but i’m deeply sceptical of this info.
    Actually I reckon those figures are quite good. Assuming they are telling, they are knocking up people who haven't voted yet, so not the keenest supporters and likely not postal voters. These are the marginal people who may or may not vote - so getting half of them voting for you in a low turnout election is actually a decent score I'd say.

    Feels comparable to our polling day in May, when we won our ward narrowly.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    kinabalu said:

    MikeL said:

    I think some people are overthinking this.

    Surely if Boris wins then on Day 1 he'll say he's going to get a deal blah blah blah.

    No Con MP is going to vote for a VONC on Day 1 - everyone will, at least initially, say they'll wait and see how things go.

    They may well vote for a VONC later - but that would be much nearer 31 October.

    So, in my view, Boris would be able to take over as PM.

    Yes, I think so.

    Boris Johnson will do whatever it takes to become PM. And after that he will do whatever it takes to stay there.

    It is the essence of the man.
    I don't think this story is about Boris, it's about the even more insaner wing...
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PeterC said:

    Would a VONC be carried? DUP, Change, Alternative, assorted independents - would these really want a GE?

    DUP would prefer a GE to a crash out No Deal Brexit. (They'd reckon, probably correctly, that they'll all keep their seats. And in the event of Hard Brexiters winning, there would be the chance the EU blinked on the backstop. And if it was the soft Brexiters or Remainers, they'd be happy.)

    Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston, provided they were given a free run by the LDs would vote against the government. The rest of CUK - well, I would guess that because Corbyn's Labour is doing so badly, well... who knows?
    Would the DUP really prefer that?

    They backed Brexit and the only softer Brexit includes the hated backstop.
    The DUP want Northern Ireland to be part of the UK. So they have 2 desires, that NI isn't treated differently (so they don't want a NI only backstop) and they don't want a border vote after a No Deal exit where they will lose...
    Exactly. The DUP would be prepared to throw Brexit under the bus rather than risk the union. They are a sectarian-based force and their loyalty is to their protestant NI base, whose primary interest is preservation of the union. The EU is secondary.

    May's inability to understand this is one of the many causes of her epic failure as PM. Perhaps she had been relying upon advice from Karen Bradley.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Any chance Labour can sneak Peterborough by virtue of a minor Con revival ?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    tpfkar said:

    Ben Walker


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    #Peterborough:
    > 1/3 to 1/2 of the voters Labour are knocking up aren't turning out. 10% of the ones they do are against them.
    > Those at the polling stations are suggesting a higher turnout than #EP2019

    Given they should only be knocking up promises that would be awful, but i’m deeply sceptical of this info.
    Actually I reckon those figures are quite good. Assuming they are telling, they are knocking up people who haven't voted yet, so not the keenest supporters and likely not postal voters. These are the marginal people who may or may not vote - so getting half of them voting for you in a low turnout election is actually a decent score I'd say.

    Feels comparable to our polling day in May, when we won our ward narrowly.
    Fair enough, I guess it depends how much is postal vote.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    kinabalu said:

    Boris-Farage alliance wins GE early October 2019?

    Maybe. But I think Corbyn/Sturgeon/Swinson shades it.

    In our culture war I reckon that the majority is just - JUST - with the cognescenti over the ignorami.
    The cognescenti can't be that cognescenti as a significant chunk of them want Corbyn as their PM.

    If only Yvette or Ed Balls or Starmer or frankly just about anyone else was LOTO.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    viewcode said:


    Woah, not so fast. The reason why we subtract the Speaker, the vacancy and the SF MPs is because they don't vote. But the 5 ChUKs and the 16 independents can and do vote, so you can't subtract them for majority purposes.

    The question if you assume (as I have) all 313 Conservatives would oppose a VONC put up by Jeremy Corbyn and I'm sure they would is what would the remaining 328 MPs do.

    'm more convinced now the LDs would support a VONC because a GE would probably go well for the Party. In any case, I can only get to 297 with all Labour, SNP, LD, Plaid and Green MPs. Some of the Independents might support a VONC, some might not and the position of CUK is far from clear.

    By my crude calculations, if CUK and DUP abstain, the VONC will fall on the Speaker's casting vote as the Commons would be tied 313-313. IF Labour wins the Peterborough by-election, that becomes 314-313 in favour of the VONC. As to what a newly-elected BXP MP would do faced with a VONC, I don't know.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    kinabalu said:

    MikeL said:

    I think some people are overthinking this.

    Surely if Boris wins then on Day 1 he'll say he's going to get a deal blah blah blah.

    No Con MP is going to vote for a VONC on Day 1 - everyone will, at least initially, say they'll wait and see how things go.

    They may well vote for a VONC later - but that would be much nearer 31 October.

    So, in my view, Boris would be able to take over as PM.

    Yes, I think so.

    Boris Johnson will do whatever it takes to become PM. And after that he will do whatever it takes to stay there.

    It is the essence of the man.
    Yes indeed.

    And I also don't think Boris cares at all about Brexit - he would be happy with absolutely any result as long as the problem is "sorted".
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kinabalu said:

    In our culture war I reckon that the majority is just - JUST - with the cognescenti over the ignorami.

    One interesting feature of the D-Day coverage is that while those who fantasize about Brexit fetishize World War II, those who actually lived through it are not Brexiteers
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    TGOHF said:

    Seems like a lot of knicker wetting - can’t see any of the serious contenders not being able to get the DUP on side.

    As for any Con rebels - to go against a new leader in the first month after being installed on a vote of the members ? Nah - I’m not having it.

    Oh, you may not wish it to, but it will happen. Boris has made some serious enemies, but more importantly there are some that have genuine principles and will never support him. I would predict a conservative estimate (pun intended) at least 4 defections based on strong evidence. Swivel-eyed members who think they should foist a Brexit charlatan on a parliamentary party that does not want him will be in for a shock. Hopefully the more sensible will have second thoughts like they did with David Davis.
    "Thank you for electing me as your leader. Over the summer recess, I have been discussing our Brexit strategy with Michael, our new COE, and I am persuaded that it is in the best interests of the country and our party that I ask the new leadership of the EU for a short extension in order that we can come to a sensible agreement in our mutual interest. Love Boris".
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1136645501246423040

    She's growing on me. Bit more of a grown up than Raab.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MikeL said:

    I think some people are overthinking this.

    Surely if Boris wins then on Day 1 he'll say he's going to get a deal blah blah blah.

    He has already said we are leaving in October without a deal, so no...
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Ben Walker


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    #Peterborough:
    > 1/3 to 1/2 of the voters Labour are knocking up aren't turning out. 10% of the ones they do are against them.
    > Those at the polling stations are suggesting a higher turnout than #EP2019

    So does that mean 50% to 66% of Lab knock ups are turning out and between 45% and 58% of them are voting Lab?

    Somewhat better than LE and EE if so.

    Not enough to win if TBP take most of ex Tory share
    Labour will win in 3 or 4 wards but they need to win big there and I would imagine require at least 50% of the door knocks to go and vote. I bet on Lab at 6/1 but only because the odds were too good rather than expecting them to win. Brexit Party have the superior candidate and the advantage of the same people voting BXP 2 weeks ago. Had this vote taken place a month ago or a few months in the future Lab win was a stronger possibility but all the noises suggest Mike Greene will be the new MP
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    TGOHF said:

    Any chance Labour can sneak Peterborough by virtue of a minor Con revival ?

    I think that the drop in the Conservative vote share will be comparable to by-elections in 1993-97.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    kinabalu said:

    In our culture war I reckon that the majority is just - JUST - with the cognescenti over the ignorami.

    One interesting feature of the D-Day coverage is that while those who fantasize about Brexit fetishize World War II, those who actually lived through it are not Brexiteers
    Are hot takes back in season ?


    Patronising drivel.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1136645501246423040

    She's growing on me. Bit more of a grown up than Raab.

    The Tories are making a mistake overlooking her in my view. But they clearly are overlooking her.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    Any chance Labour can sneak Peterborough by virtue of a minor Con revival ?

    I think that the drop in the Conservative vote share will be comparable to by-elections in 1993-97.
    The average fall in the Conservatives' vote share over that period was 21% in England, but that included safe Labour seats. The maximum fall was 32% in Christchurch. Even a 32% drop suggest a floor of 14% for the Conservatives in Peterborough.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1136645501246423040

    She's growing on me. Bit more of a grown up than Raab.

    The Tories are making a mistake overlooking her in my view. But they clearly are overlooking her.
    They better bloody overlook her !
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Scott_P said:

    kinabalu said:

    In our culture war I reckon that the majority is just - JUST - with the cognescenti over the ignorami.

    One interesting feature of the D-Day coverage is that while those who fantasize about Brexit fetishize World War II, those who actually lived through it are not Brexiteers
    When you look at leading Nazis, they were often born before WW1 but not old enough to serve in it - yet old enough to experience the 1920s at a formative age. When I look at my father he remembers the war clearly (he was 3 in 1936) but views it as exciting.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Brom said:

    Ben Walker


    @spreadsheetben
    Follow Follow @spreadsheetben
    More
    #Peterborough:
    > 1/3 to 1/2 of the voters Labour are knocking up aren't turning out. 10% of the ones they do are against them.
    > Those at the polling stations are suggesting a higher turnout than #EP2019

    So does that mean 50% to 66% of Lab knock ups are turning out and between 45% and 58% of them are voting Lab?

    Somewhat better than LE and EE if so.

    Not enough to win if TBP take most of ex Tory share
    Labour will win in 3 or 4 wards but they need to win big there and I would imagine require at least 50% of the door knocks to go and vote. I bet on Lab at 6/1 but only because the odds were too good rather than expecting them to win. Brexit Party have the superior candidate and the advantage of the same people voting BXP 2 weeks ago. Had this vote taken place a month ago or a few months in the future Lab win was a stronger possibility but all the noises suggest Mike Greene will be the new MP
    You are probably right. And it might be the best result for Labour. They need a shock to knock some sense into them. But 6 to 1 is a pretty good price - they do have a ground game and they have been winning elections for 100+ years.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Barnesian said:

    TGOHF said:

    Seems like a lot of knicker wetting - can’t see any of the serious contenders not being able to get the DUP on side.

    As for any Con rebels - to go against a new leader in the first month after being installed on a vote of the members ? Nah - I’m not having it.

    Oh, you may not wish it to, but it will happen. Boris has made some serious enemies, but more importantly there are some that have genuine principles and will never support him. I would predict a conservative estimate (pun intended) at least 4 defections based on strong evidence. Swivel-eyed members who think they should foist a Brexit charlatan on a parliamentary party that does not want him will be in for a shock. Hopefully the more sensible will have second thoughts like they did with David Davis.
    "Thank you for electing me as your leader. Over the summer recess, I have been discussing our Brexit strategy with Michael, our new COE, and I am persuaded that it is in the best interests of the country and our party that I ask the new leadership of the EU for a short extension in order that we can come to a sensible agreement in our mutual interest. Love Boris".
    Except he can't ask for an extension, he is not PM. May remains PM if he wins leadership. Gove is not CoE either, Hammond is.

    And even if he announces that he would seek an extension as soon as he is PM, should the Palace believe that the ultra Tory remainers believe him?

    Perhaps May needs to ask for at least a year's extension as soon as the leadership contest is under way?
This discussion has been closed.