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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Campbell purged from Corbyn’s LAB for backing the LDs

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  • glwglw Posts: 9,892

    For that matter - what does joining 'Compass' mean?

    I'm fairly certain that you will find that all animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others. Corbyn can join, support, or even lead any organisation he wants to.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,439
    Ishmael_Z said:

    > @Luckyguy1983 said:

    > > @TheScreamingEagles said:

    >

    > > I like Rory, I like lower-upper-middle class.

    >

    > >

    >

    > >



    >

    >

    >

    >

    >

    > The English class system is onion like in its layers of exclusion, so even within Eton there are gradiations. Even so this is absurd, the spectrum varies from Upper Class to Upper Middle Class.

    >

    >

    >

    > Rory does have the common touch, and seems genuinely able to establish a rapport with quite a wide spectrum of people. If he didn't look like agargoyle he might stand a chance next time round.

    >

    > This class talk is distasteful.

    > We need to move on from defining people in this way.

    >

    > By the way did anyone else see that awful clip in Episode 1 of the Thatcher doc where Heseltine snobbily describes “bad Margaret” as her lower-middle-class character coming out?

    >

    > What an arse.

    >

    > Heseltine was just displaying his own insecurity. He was described, after all, by Alan Clark, as the sort of man who had to buy his own furniture.



    Alan Clark of whom a genuine grandee said "that's a bit rich, coming from someone whose dad had to buy his own castle."
    I've heard that comment was made by Lord Hailsham.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > @rottenborough said:
    > > Plus, did they really think Campbell wouldn't come out fighting?
    > >
    >
    > Do you really think it helps the Remain cause to be associated with Alistair Campbell ...
    >
    > The best thing for Remain would be if Campbell and Blair were swallowed up by the Earth.

    Certainly true, in the case of Campbell. I cringe every time he comes on TV. At least Blair can construct a sophisticated line of argument, pre-programmed as I am to resist it.

    Nevertheless Campbell’s new status as Labour’s Spartacus is doing the LibDems a huge favour in publicising the logic of Labour voters switching to the LibDems.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    > @isam said:

    > > @isam said:

    >

    > > Wonder what price the bookies would go LD vs Lab vote % match bet at the next GE? Anyone want to price it up for some sport?

    >

    >

    >

    > Not a tradable price but 1.25 Labour 5 LDs for vote share and 1.14 Labour 8 LDS most seats

    >

    >

    >

    > (exact rules could make a difference with the possibility of LD being in a remain alliance etc)

    >

    > Think I’d be a backer of the Dems at those rates. Ladbrokes have Labour in for about 34% of votes and LD 4th in at 20/1 so I think your price is about right off that, others would know better than me.



    Labour under 34% sounds excellent value (IF corbyn is leader, they could romp it with virtually anyone else).

    I just worked that out from their bands 30-40 5/4 etc, they aren’t actually offering the bet.

    Brexit Party 5/1 most votes a bit stingy compared to Betfair
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306

    > @Gardenwalker said:

    > This class talk is distasteful.

    > We need to move on from defining people in this way.

    >

    > By the way did anyone else see that awful clip in Episode 1 of the Thatcher doc where Heseltine snobbily describes “bad Margaret” as her lower-middle-class character coming out?

    >

    > What an arse.





    But then Alan Clarke thought Heseltine was unredeemably middle class (despite being descended form Scotch trade himself). That's the thing about the English class system, there's always a posher predator up the food chain (ending with fairly bourgeois Brenda at the top, weirdly).

    I think you'll find it's the British class system.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    edited May 2019
    > @ThomasNashe said:
    > One thing you can say for Rory Stewart is that he has over the last few days generated a fair amount of (generally favourable) publicity for a rank outsider. Am beginning to think he might yet be a contender (and yes I do know what is currently stacked against him at both stages of the process). Nevertheless, an outsider turning received wisdom on its head is a not-unknown feature of Tory leadership campaigns.


    He won’t get anywhere with the Tories. But you’re right that the name of the game right now is getting some publicity to set yourself apart from the field. On that score Rory looks more sensible than Hancock trying Parcour for the first time or whoever it was with all those ovens.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,376
    edited May 2019
    A question. Apologies if it has been put, but I am not up to speed with this thread.
    How many PBers, who are members of political parties have never, ever voted against that Party? Whether before or since joining.
    @HYUFD may be one.
    Being that there will be few, and, in an era when we are seemingly to have 7 or 8 parties to choose from, as well as independents at a local level, is this rule practicable?
    Tactical voting and vote swaps are also increasingly common.
    Seemingly, it punishes honesty.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1133463551379693568

    Didn't pro-EU parties get their lowest share ever recorded? Hard to combine that with his claim.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited May 2019
    > @Nigelb said:
    > > @rottenborough said:
    >
    > > Plus, did they really think Campbell wouldn't come out fighting?
    >
    > >
    >
    > Do you really think it helps the Remain cause to be associated with Alistair Campbell ...
    >
    > The best thing for Remain would be if Campbell and Blair were swallowed up by the Earth.
    >
    > Missing the point.
    > No one cares about yesterday’s man Campbell (except perhaps you). It’s the justification, or lack of it, for his expulsion which is toxic.

    ---

    If he had voted, and kept his vote private, then there would be no problem.

    He made public his vote via TV and twitter. That is why he is being rightly expelled.

    If a member of the Lib Dems announced publicly and volubly on radio and TV that he had voted Conservative, I expect he would be thrown out of the party.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,529
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > @Luckyguy1983 said:
    >
    > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > I like Rory, I like lower-upper-middle class.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > https://twitter.com/fifimellersh/status/1133445935156125697
    >
    >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > The English class system is onion like in its layers of exclusion, so even within Eton there are gradiations. Even so this is absurd, the spectrum varies from Upper Class to Upper Middle Class.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Rory does have the common touch, and seems genuinely able to establish a rapport with quite a wide spectrum of people. If he didn't look like agargoyle he might stand a chance next time round.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > This class talk is distasteful.
    >
    > > We need to move on from defining people in this way.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > By the way did anyone else see that awful clip in Episode 1 of the Thatcher doc where Heseltine snobbily describes “bad Margaret” as her lower-middle-class character coming out?
    >
    > >
    >
    > > What an arse.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Heseltine was just displaying his own insecurity. He was described, after all, by Alan Clark, as the sort of man who had to buy his own furniture.
    >
    >
    >
    > Alan Clark of whom a genuine grandee said "that's a bit rich, coming from someone whose dad had to buy his own castle."
    >
    > I've heard that comment was made by Lord Hailsham.

    Thanks.

    So a bloke named after a pig who wore a flat cap.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    R

    Scott_P said:

    then retweeted several times by Scott P.

    I didn't retweet it at all
    :lol: I put that in especially because I know you hate your tweetpasting here being described as retweeting. It's the little things...
    Get a life
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    > @dixiedean said:
    > A question. Apologies if it has been put, but I am not up to speed with this thread.
    > How many PBers, who are members of political parties have never, ever voted against that Party? Whether before or since joining.
    > @HYUFD may be one.
    > Being that there will be few, and, in an era when we are seemingly to have 7 or 8 parties to choose from, as well as independents at a local level, is this rule practicable?
    > Seemingly, it punishes honesty.

    I was a LibDem member who didn’t vote LD in 2017 GE. I was a member in 1981 and didn’t vote Liberal, either, but that was because the local election was a straight Tory-Labour contest so I voted for our milkman. Who lost. Indeed for a GE I have never voted for a winning candidate and my vote is always wasted. Even in local elections the only person who I ever voted for who won was myself (and my running mates). Yet people cheer for British democracy.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Was just thinking the EU could really take the piss by saying "we'll reopen the Withdrawal Agreement with ONE and only one of the Conservative leadership candidates as PM...but WHICH one? Bwahahaha....."
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > @Nigelb said:
    > > > @rottenborough said:
    > >
    > > > Plus, did they really think Campbell wouldn't come out fighting?
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > Do you really think it helps the Remain cause to be associated with Alistair Campbell ...
    > >
    > > The best thing for Remain would be if Campbell and Blair were swallowed up by the Earth.
    > >
    > > Missing the point.
    > > No one cares about yesterday’s man Campbell (except perhaps you). It’s the justification, or lack of it, for his expulsion which is toxic.
    >
    > ---
    >
    > If he had voted, and kept his vote private, then there would be no problem.
    >
    > He made public his vote via TV and twitter. That is why he is being rightly expelled.
    >
    > If a member of the Lib Dems announced publicly and volubly on radio and TV that he had voted Conservative, I expect he would be thrown out of the party.
    >

    I don’t think that’s true. Standing against your party, for sure. Urging people to vote against your party, probably. Admitting after the event that you didn’t support your party, not so in the LibDems. Labour’s rules appear more tightly drawn, but even so it depends on how you define “supporting”.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,872
    > @Luckyguy1983 said:
    > But then Alan Clarke thought Heseltine was unredeemably middle class (despite being descended form Scotch trade himself). That's the thing about the English class system, there's always a posher predator up the food chain (ending with fairly bourgeois Brenda at the top, weirdly).

    > I think you'll find it's the British class system.


    I think you'll find it infects England much more than, say, Scotland. Of course we all have to live with the consequences.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,717
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > @Nigelb said:
    > > > @rottenborough said:
    > >
    > > > Plus, did they really think Campbell wouldn't come out fighting?
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > Do you really think it helps the Remain cause to be associated with Alistair Campbell ...
    > >
    > > The best thing for Remain would be if Campbell and Blair were swallowed up by the Earth.
    > >
    > > Missing the point.
    > > No one cares about yesterday’s man Campbell (except perhaps you). It’s the justification, or lack of it, for his expulsion which is toxic.
    >
    > ---
    >
    > If he had voted, and kept his vote private, then there would be no problem.
    >
    > He made public his vote via TV and twitter. That is why he is being rightly expelled.
    >
    > If a member of the Lib Dems announced publicly and volubly on radio and TV that he had voted Conservative, I expect he would be thrown out of the party.
    >

    If your vote share drops from 40% to 14% in 2 years you are not in a position to enforce those rules. 65% of voters have switched, of course that will include plenty of members, especially in Labour with such a big membership. Why not engage with those who have switched and bring them back rather than push them away? It really is so obvious.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    > @ThomasNashe said:
    > One thing you can say for Rory Stewart is that he has over the last few days generated a fair amount of (generally favourable) publicity for a rank outsider. Am beginning to think he might yet be a contender (and yes I do know what is currently stacked against him at both stages of the process). Nevertheless, an outsider turning received wisdom on its head is a not-unknown feature of Tory leadership campaigns.

    No, you are making the mistake of taking Stewart seriously.

    All you can say for Stewart is that he has generated quite a bit of one way traffic attacking Boris Johnson in a most divisive way. (e.g. The "Pinocchio" slur was beyond the Pale.) It seems more obvious by the day that the purpose is to harm the front runner to serve the interests of another candidate who has no doubt offered Stewart some reward in the event that the other candidate is successful. It doesn't matter that Stewart is doing his own chances harm or that he and his shadowy backer (Gove?) are only fostering a perception of Tory party disunity in the process, ironic given Stewart's farcical claim to be a unity candidate. The aim is solely to harm Johnson. However, Johnson has up to now shown admirable restraint in the face of obvious provocation, which has done him no harm whatsoever. So I don't think that Stewart's actions can be deemed a success even in terms of their very limited Machiavellian goals.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited May 2019
    > @another_richard said:

    > Thanks.
    >
    > So a bloke named after a pig who wore a flat cap.

    A hogg is a young sheep, actually.

    edit: I was struggling to substantiate that, but here you go

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glossary_of_sheep_husbandry
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > @Nigelb said:
    > > > @rottenborough said:
    > >
    > > > Plus, did they really think Campbell wouldn't come out fighting?
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > Do you really think it helps the Remain cause to be associated with Alistair Campbell ...
    > > The best thing for Remain would be if Campbell and Blair were swallowed up by the Earth.
    > >
    > > Missing the point.
    > > No one cares about yesterday’s man Campbell (except perhaps you). It’s the justification, or lack of it, for his expulsion which is toxic.
    >
    > If he had voted, and kept his vote private, then there would be no problem.
    >
    > He made public his vote via TV and twitter. That is why he is being rightly expelled.
    >
    > If a member of the Lib Dems announced publicly and volubly on radio and TV that he had voted Conservative, I expect he would be thrown out of the party.

    Doubt it.
    Probably take them an electoral cycle just to get over the shock.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999
    @Wulfrun_Phil said:
    It seems more obvious by the day that the purpose is to harm the front runner to serve the interests of another candidate who has no doubt offered Stewart some reward in the event that the other candidate is successful.

    +++++++++++

    Yes, there must be some fearsome conspiracy at work rather than, say, Rory Stewart wanting to be Prime Minister.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Was just thinking the EU could really take the piss by saying "we'll reopen the Withdrawal Agreement with ONE and only one of the Conservative leadership candidates as PM...but WHICH one? Bwahahaha....."

    https://twitter.com/ExcelPope/status/1133427011777699841
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,376
    > @solarflare said:
    > Was just thinking the EU could really take the piss by saying "we'll reopen the Withdrawal Agreement with ONE and only one of the Conservative leadership candidates as PM...but WHICH one? Bwahahaha....."

    If they're really taking the piss, they'll reopen them providing it's Grayling. That'll get us in Schengen and the Euro pronto.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > @Luckyguy1983 said:
    > > But then Alan Clarke thought Heseltine was unredeemably middle class (despite being descended form Scotch trade himself). That's the thing about the English class system, there's always a posher predator up the food chain (ending with fairly bourgeois Brenda at the top, weirdly).
    >
    > > I think you'll find it's the British class system.
    >
    >
    > I think you'll find it infects England much more than, say, Scotland. Of course we all have to live with the consequences.
    >
    >

    The Scottish class structure seems to me quite polarised, without the infinite subtle gradiations of resentment that feature south of the border.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > > @Luckyguy1983 said:
    > >
    > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > > I like Rory, I like lower-upper-middle class.
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > >
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > > https://twitter.com/fifimellersh/status/1133445935156125697
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > The English class system is onion like in its layers of exclusion, so even within Eton there are gradiations. Even so this is absurd, the spectrum varies from Upper Class to Upper Middle Class.
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > Rory does have the common touch, and seems genuinely able to establish a rapport with quite a wide spectrum of people. If he didn't look like agargoyle he might stand a chance next time round.
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > This class talk is distasteful.
    > >
    > > > We need to move on from defining people in this way.
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > By the way did anyone else see that awful clip in Episode 1 of the Thatcher doc where Heseltine snobbily describes “bad Margaret” as her lower-middle-class character coming out?
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > What an arse.
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > Heseltine was just displaying his own insecurity. He was described, after all, by Alan Clark, as the sort of man who had to buy his own furniture.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Alan Clark of whom a genuine grandee said "that's a bit rich, coming from someone whose dad had to buy his own castle."
    > >
    > > I've heard that comment was made by Lord Hailsham.
    >
    > Thanks.
    >
    > So a bloke named after a pig who wore a flat cap.

    It took me a while, you mean Mr Q. Hogg?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,529
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > @Wulfrun_Phil said:
    > It seems more obvious by the day that the purpose is to harm the front runner to serve the interests of another candidate who has no doubt offered Stewart some reward in the event that the other candidate is successful.
    >
    > +++++++++++
    >
    > Yes, there must be some fearsome conspiracy at work rather than, say, Rory Stewart wanting to be Prime Minister.

    Both might be true.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999
    > @Philip_Thompson said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1133463551379693568
    >
    > Didn't pro-EU parties get their lowest share ever recorded? Hard to combine that with his claim.

    It depends on how you count it.

    Groups with the avowed policy of increasing integration (ALDE / G) fared very well. Those with the policy of rolling it back (ECR / ENF / EFDD) also did very well.

    Those in the middle (S&D / EPP) did very poorly.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > > @Nigelb said:
    > > > > @rottenborough said:
    > > >
    > > > > Plus, did they really think Campbell wouldn't come out fighting?
    > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > Do you really think it helps the Remain cause to be associated with Alistair Campbell ...
    > > >
    > > > The best thing for Remain would be if Campbell and Blair were swallowed up by the Earth.
    > > >
    > > > Missing the point.
    > > > No one cares about yesterday’s man Campbell (except perhaps you). It’s the justification, or lack of it, for his expulsion which is toxic.
    > >
    > > ---
    > >
    > > If he had voted, and kept his vote private, then there would be no problem.
    > >
    > > He made public his vote via TV and twitter. That is why he is being rightly expelled.
    > >
    > > If a member of the Lib Dems announced publicly and volubly on radio and TV that he had voted Conservative, I expect he would be thrown out of the party.
    > >
    >
    > If your vote share drops from 40% to 14% in 2 years you are not in a position to enforce those rules. 65% of voters have switched, of course that will include plenty of members, especially in Labour with such a big membership. Why not engage with those who have switched and bring them back rather than push them away? It really is so obvious.

    Because Corbyn, Momentum et al are intent on turning Labour into a narrow cult. They take their cue from George W Bush: you are either with them or against them. There is no desire to build a broader coalition with the moderate left, because to do so will compromise the appeal that will lead to true salvation.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935

    > @Scott_P said:

    >





    Didn't pro-EU parties get their lowest share ever recorded? Hard to combine that with his claim.
    The specific point he made in the speech was that Eurosceptic parties had changed from desiring the destruction of the EU or departure, to remaining and reforming the EU. Whilst this is a bit of a stretch, other people have said this over the past year.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > > @Philip_Thompson said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > https:com/nick_gutteridge/status/1133463551379693568
    > >
    > > Didn't pro-EU parties get their lowest share ever recorded? Hard to combine that with his claim.
    >
    > It depends on how you count it.
    >
    > Groups with the avowed policy of increasing integration (ALDE / G) fared very well. Those with the policy of rolling it back (ECR / ENF / EFDD) also did very well.
    >
    > Those in the middle (S&D / EPP) did very poorly.

    What concrete things do they want to roll back?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,529
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > > @Philip_Thompson said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1133463551379693568
    > >
    > > Didn't pro-EU parties get their lowest share ever recorded? Hard to combine that with his claim.
    >
    > It depends on how you count it.
    >
    > Groups with the avowed policy of increasing integration (ALDE / G) fared very well. Those with the policy of rolling it back (ECR / ENF / EFDD) also did very well.
    >
    > Those in the middle (S&D / EPP) did very poorly.

    So what collapses first when the next recession arrives - the financial system or the political system ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    https://twitter.com/TomSwarbrick1/status/1133462518989492225

    Should be interesting - lexiter Ronnie Campbell is basically Jezza without the burden o leadership politically.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited May 2019
    > @Nigelb said:
    >
    > > If a member of the Lib Dems announced publicly and volubly on radio and TV that he had voted Conservative, I expect he would be thrown out of the party.
    >
    > Doubt it.
    > Probably take them an electoral cycle just to get over the shock.
    >

    ---

    What happened to Liberal Democrat MP, Paul Marsden, after 5 April 2005 -- hours after the beginning of the election campaign -- when he urged people to vote Labour.

    He was not allowed to rejoin Labour.

    What did the LibDems do?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,872
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > > @Luckyguy1983 said:
    > > > But then Alan Clarke thought Heseltine was unredeemably middle class (despite being descended form Scotch trade himself). That's the thing about the English class system, there's always a posher predator up the food chain (ending with fairly bourgeois Brenda at the top, weirdly).
    > >
    > > > I think you'll find it's the British class system.
    > >
    > >
    > > I think you'll find it infects England much more than, say, Scotland. Of course we all have to live with the consequences.
    > >
    > >
    >
    > The Scottish class structure seems to me quite polarised, without the infinite subtle gradiations of resentment that feature south of the border.


    Well, there certainly aren't a lot of people worrying whether they're lower-upper-middle class or not.

    I remember a couple of years ago a new system of class categories was touted, and the BBC had an online questionnaire that let you find out which niche you would occupy, it was quite the topic of discussion on here (leavened with a bit of insecurity I thought), but not a smidgeon of interest in the areas of Scottish society I consort with.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    > @rottenborough said:
    > https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1133343893318250497

    That's Corbyn banged to rights then.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001

    > @justin124 said:



    > But this has happened many times before. In May 2014 UKIP polled over 26% at the EU elections - less than a year later at the 2015 GE they received 12.5%. At the May 2017 Local Elections the LibDems polled 18% - yet but 5 weeks later could only manage 7.5%. Moreover, voters have always had a pretty frivolous view of EU elections - even more so than Local Elections - and that might be even more the case in the current climate. Why should we give more weight to the elections held on 23rd May v those held on 2nd May?



    ---



    Agreed. I was going to post the self-same point. There are ample examples in the past showing the LibDems or Greens or UKIP doing extremely well in the Euros and then failing to replicate their polling at the Generals.



    No-one takes the Euro elections seriously in the UK.

    I just looked, all the way back to the first PR Euro elections.
    In every election, the LDs did better in the following GE than in the Euro election

    1999 Euros 11.9%; 2001 GE 18.3%
    2004 Euros 14.4%; 2005 GE 22.9%
    2009 Euros 13.3%; 2010 GE 24.2%
    2014 Euros 6.9%; 2015 GE 8.2%
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842

    Do you sense the activists would prefer getting 30-50 MPs on 15-20% of the vote with largely the same character as todays party, or getting 100+ MPs on 20-30% of the vote, possibly more, but actively encourage into the party the likes of Heidi Allen, Nicky Morgan, Ken Clarke, Chuka Umunna, Tom Watson which would change the face of the party. (Whether all the above would join or not, some would and the signal to the electorate is LD would be a different, broader party).

    Despite everything that happened with the Coalition, I still take the view the opportunity to be in power, to enact the legislation you believe will improve the lot of everyone in the country and to provide good, fair governance for all is something any politically-minded and active person should desire.

    Opposition is comfort but futility - easy but helpless. As the LDs found out (and that Party, the party I joined when it was still called Liberal, perished in the fires of Coalition) Government ain't easy or for the faint-hearted. It requires a discipline and a commitment the old LDs didn't have.

    If you're asking whether I think the LDs should be a leading part of a broad centre, centre-right and centre-left movement (call it Progressive or whatever), I'd say yes. Whether such a movement could win a GE at the moment is however debatable.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @rcs1000 said:
    > > > @Philip_Thompson said:
    > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > > https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1133463551379693568
    > > >
    > > > Didn't pro-EU parties get their lowest share ever recorded? Hard to combine that with his claim.
    > >
    > > It depends on how you count it.
    > >
    > > Groups with the avowed policy of increasing integration (ALDE / G) fared very well. Those with the policy of rolling it back (ECR / ENF / EFDD) also did very well.
    > >
    > > Those in the middle (S&D / EPP) did very poorly.
    >
    > So what collapses first when the next recession arrives - the financial system or the political system ?

    The imminent collapse of the EU is such a perennial favourite, that it rivals the Punic wars for ubiquity, yet it goes from strength to strength. Like Hunchmans bond crisis, it is always a year away.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,871
    Can we have Aaron Bastani "auto-excluded" please?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ExitedBritain/status/1133438678913757185
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240
    viewcode said:

    > @Scott_P said:

    >





    Didn't pro-EU parties get their lowest share ever recorded? Hard to combine that with his claim.
    The specific point he made in the speech was that Eurosceptic parties had changed from desiring the destruction of the EU or departure, to remaining and reforming the EU. Whilst this is a bit of a stretch, other people have said this over the past year.
    I think people like Salvini and Orban would be perfectly happy to cause the break up of the EU, but they'll pick their fights with care.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Alan Clark reported the jibe about Michael Heseltine buying his own furniture but he did not make it. If memory serves, it was Michael Jopling.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > @Wulfrun_Phil said:
    > It seems more obvious by the day that the purpose is to harm the front runner to serve the interests of another candidate who has no doubt offered Stewart some reward in the event that the other candidate is successful.
    >
    > +++++++++++
    >
    > Yes, there must be some fearsome conspiracy at work rather than, say, Rory Stewart wanting to be Prime Minister.

    I appreciate that you are trying to take the piss but I will indulge you anyway.

    Normally I am the last person to subscribe to conspiracy theories. However, in this case I think collusion with another candidate who dare not throw flak themselves is the most plausible possibility in the Machiavellian world of Conservative leadership contests. Another less plausible possibility is that Stewart is just trying to be divisive to generate publicity that raises his profile in the hope of eventually being given ministerial office by a PM anxious to be seen to accommodate different wings of the party. But the least plausible possibility of all is that he is actually running to win. I rule that out because he must know that as the YouGov polling of Tory members shows that he is the most disliked candidate of all, he has absolutely no chance of winning whatsoever.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503
    > @Andy_Cooke said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    >
    >
    >
    > > But this has happened many times before. In May 2014 UKIP polled over 26% at the EU elections - less than a year later at the 2015 GE they received 12.5%. At the May 2017 Local Elections the LibDems polled 18% - yet but 5 weeks later could only manage 7.5%. Moreover, voters have always had a pretty frivolous view of EU elections - even more so than Local Elections - and that might be even more the case in the current climate. Why should we give more weight to the elections held on 23rd May v those held on 2nd May?
    >
    >
    >
    > ---
    >
    >
    >
    > Agreed. I was going to post the self-same point. There are ample examples in the past showing the LibDems or Greens or UKIP doing extremely well in the Euros and then failing to replicate their polling at the Generals.
    >
    >
    >
    > No-one takes the Euro elections seriously in the UK.
    >
    > I just looked, all the way back to the first PR Euro elections.
    > In every election, the LDs did better in the following GE than in the Euro election
    >
    > 1999 Euros 11.9%; 2001 GE 18.3%
    > 2004 Euros 14.4%; 2005 GE 22.9%
    > 2009 Euros 13.3%; 2010 GE 24.2%
    > 2014 Euros 6.9%; 2015 GE 8.2%

    Very interesting figures!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited May 2019
    > @dixiedean said:
    > A question. Apologies if it has been put, but I am not up to speed with this thread.
    > How many PBers, who are members of political parties have never, ever voted against that Party? Whether before or since joining.
    > @HYUFD may be one.
    > Being that there will be few, and, in an era when we are seemingly to have 7 or 8 parties to choose from, as well as independents at a local level, is this rule practicable?
    > Tactical voting and vote swaps are also increasingly common.
    > Seemingly, it punishes honesty.

    I have voted Labour, LibDem, Green, Socialist Labour and for an Independent (Craig Murray), but througout the 27 years I was a party member I only voted Labour. Non-members are under no obligation and free to do as they wish.
    Re-honesty , I would suggest it is dishonest to vote for a rival party whilst remaining a party member.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712

    > @justin124 said:



    > But this has happened many times before. In May 2014 UKIP polled over 26% at the EU elections - less than a year later at the 2015 GE they received 12.5%. At the May 2017 Local Elections the LibDems polled 18% - yet but 5 weeks later could only manage 7.5%. Moreover, voters have always had a pretty frivolous view of EU elections - even more so than Local Elections - and that might be even more the case in the current climate. Why should we give more weight to the elections held on 23rd May v those held on 2nd May?



    ---



    Agreed. I was going to post the self-same point. There are ample examples in the past showing the LibDems or Greens or UKIP doing extremely well in the Euros and then failing to replicate their polling at the Generals.



    No-one takes the Euro elections seriously in the UK.

    I just looked, all the way back to the first PR Euro elections.
    In every election, the LDs did better in the following GE than in the Euro election

    1999 Euros 11.9%; 2001 GE 18.3%
    2004 Euros 14.4%; 2005 GE 22.9%
    2009 Euros 13.3%; 2010 GE 24.2%
    2014 Euros 6.9%; 2015 GE 8.2%
    Ahem!

    Other fun facts include the Greens putting on their best show at an EU election in 1989, winning just under 15% of the vote (nearly double their 2014 score, for example), and on all eight occasions the LibDems scoring a lower vote-share than at each subsequent GE.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/05/20/putting-thursday-into-context-a-look-back-at-previous-uk-euro-elections/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    New thread
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited May 2019
    > @Andy_Cooke said:
    > Agreed. I was going to post the self-same point. There are ample examples in the past showing the LibDems or Greens or UKIP doing extremely well in the Euros and then failing to replicate their polling at the Generals.
    >
    >
    >
    > No-one takes the Euro elections seriously in the UK.
    >
    > I just looked, all the way back to the first PR Euro elections.
    > In every election, the LDs did better in the following GE than in the Euro election
    >
    > 1999 Euros 11.9%; 2001 GE 18.3%
    > 2004 Euros 14.4%; 2005 GE 22.9%
    > 2009 Euros 13.3%; 2010 GE 24.2%
    > 2014 Euros 6.9%; 2015 GE 8.2%

    ---

    But that is not true of the Euro elections prior to 1999 for the LibDems.

    After 1999, growing Euroscepticism meant that the LibDems performed increasingly poorly in the Euros, despite their vote being reasonably steady in the Generals from 1999 to 2009.

    The point remains that a fine performance in the Euros is of no great consequence for the Generals.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    > @stodge said:
    > Do you sense the activists would prefer getting 30-50 MPs on 15-20% of the vote with largely the same character as todays party, or getting 100+ MPs on 20-30% of the vote, possibly more, but actively encourage into the party the likes of Heidi Allen, Nicky Morgan, Ken Clarke, Chuka Umunna, Tom Watson which would change the face of the party. (Whether all the above would join or not, some would and the signal to the electorate is LD would be a different, broader party).
    >
    > Despite everything that happened with the Coalition, I still take the view the opportunity to be in power, to enact the legislation you believe will improve the lot of everyone in the country and to provide good, fair governance for all is something any politically-minded and active person should desire.
    >
    > Opposition is comfort but futility - easy but helpless. As the LDs found out (and that Party, the party I joined when it was still called Liberal, perished in the fires of Coalition) Government ain't easy or for the faint-hearted. It requires a discipline and a commitment the old LDs didn't have.
    >
    > If you're asking whether I think the LDs should be a leading part of a broad centre, centre-right and centre-left movement (call it Progressive or whatever), I'd say yes. Whether such a movement could win a GE at the moment is however debatable.

    Actually the LDs displayed remarkable discipline and commitment. Even Tories commented on it at the time. What they didn’t display was enough steely resolve nor ruthlessness.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > https://twitter.com/HarrietHarman/status/1133406954947264514


    That seemed sensible until I read Labour’s actual rules, which are tighter than those of other parties.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > > @Nigelb said:
    > > > > @rottenborough said:
    > > >
    > > > > Plus, did they really think Campbell wouldn't come out fighting?
    > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > Do you really think it helps the Remain cause to be associated with Alistair Campbell ...
    > > >
    > > > The best thing for Remain would be if Campbell and Blair were swallowed up by the Earth.
    > > >
    > > > Missing the point.
    > > > No one cares about yesterday’s man Campbell (except perhaps you). It’s the justification, or lack of it, for his expulsion which is toxic.
    > >
    > > ---
    > >
    > > If he had voted, and kept his vote private, then there would be no problem.
    > >
    > > He made public his vote via TV and twitter. That is why he is being rightly expelled.
    > >
    > > If a member of the Lib Dems announced publicly and volubly on radio and TV that he had voted Conservative, I expect he would be thrown out of the party.
    > >
    >
    > If your vote share drops from 40% to 14% in 2 years you are not in a position to enforce those rules. 65% of voters have switched, of course that will include plenty of members, especially in Labour with such a big membership. Why not engage with those who have switched and bring them back rather than push them away? It really is so obvious.

    But three weeks earlier Labour - and the Tories- polled 31% at the Local Elections.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,717
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @stodge said:
    > > Do you sense the activists would prefer getting 30-50 MPs on 15-20% of the vote with largely the same character as todays party, or getting 100+ MPs on 20-30% of the vote, possibly more, but actively encourage into the party the likes of Heidi Allen, Nicky Morgan, Ken Clarke, Chuka Umunna, Tom Watson which would change the face of the party. (Whether all the above would join or not, some would and the signal to the electorate is LD would be a different, broader party).
    > >
    > > Despite everything that happened with the Coalition, I still take the view the opportunity to be in power, to enact the legislation you believe will improve the lot of everyone in the country and to provide good, fair governance for all is something any politically-minded and active person should desire.
    > >
    > > Opposition is comfort but futility - easy but helpless. As the LDs found out (and that Party, the party I joined when it was still called Liberal, perished in the fires of Coalition) Government ain't easy or for the faint-hearted. It requires a discipline and a commitment the old LDs didn't have.
    > >
    > > If you're asking whether I think the LDs should be a leading part of a broad centre, centre-right and centre-left movement (call it Progressive or whatever), I'd say yes. Whether such a movement could win a GE at the moment is however debatable.
    >
    > Actually the LDs displayed remarkable discipline and commitment. Even Tories commented on it at the time. What they didn’t display was enough steely resolve nor ruthlessness.

    Their biggest fault was probably not owning their successes whilst apologising for their failures.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > @Andy_Cooke said:
    > > Agreed. I was going to post the self-same point. There are ample examples in the past showing the LibDems or Greens or UKIP doing extremely well in the Euros and then failing to replicate their polling at the Generals.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > No-one takes the Euro elections seriously in the UK.
    > >
    > > I just looked, all the way back to the first PR Euro elections.
    > > In every election, the LDs did better in the following GE than in the Euro election
    > >
    > > 1999 Euros 11.9%; 2001 GE 18.3%
    > > 2004 Euros 14.4%; 2005 GE 22.9%
    > > 2009 Euros 13.3%; 2010 GE 24.2%
    > > 2014 Euros 6.9%; 2015 GE 8.2%
    >
    > ---
    >
    > But that is not true of the Euro elections prior to 1999 for the LibDems.
    >

    Actually it is, without exception. This is trivially capable of being checked. Why didn’t you instead of making up nonsense?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001

    > @Andy_Cooke said:

    > Agreed. I was going to post the self-same point. There are ample examples in the past showing the LibDems or Greens or UKIP doing extremely well in the Euros and then failing to replicate their polling at the Generals.

    >

    >

    >

    > No-one takes the Euro elections seriously in the UK.

    >

    > I just looked, all the way back to the first PR Euro elections.

    > In every election, the LDs did better in the following GE than in the Euro election

    >

    > 1999 Euros 11.9%; 2001 GE 18.3%

    > 2004 Euros 14.4%; 2005 GE 22.9%

    > 2009 Euros 13.3%; 2010 GE 24.2%

    > 2014 Euros 6.9%; 2015 GE 8.2%



    ---



    But that is not true of the Euro elections prior to 1999 for the LibDems.


    .

    Actually, it is.
    Take a look.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,717
    > @justin124 said:
    > > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > > > @Nigelb said:
    > > > > > @rottenborough said:
    > > > >
    > > > > > Plus, did they really think Campbell wouldn't come out fighting?
    > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > Do you really think it helps the Remain cause to be associated with Alistair Campbell ...
    > > > >
    > > > > The best thing for Remain would be if Campbell and Blair were swallowed up by the Earth.
    > > > >
    > > > > Missing the point.
    > > > > No one cares about yesterday’s man Campbell (except perhaps you). It’s the justification, or lack of it, for his expulsion which is toxic.
    > > >
    > > > ---
    > > >
    > > > If he had voted, and kept his vote private, then there would be no problem.
    > > >
    > > > He made public his vote via TV and twitter. That is why he is being rightly expelled.
    > > >
    > > > If a member of the Lib Dems announced publicly and volubly on radio and TV that he had voted Conservative, I expect he would be thrown out of the party.
    > > >
    > >
    > > If your vote share drops from 40% to 14% in 2 years you are not in a position to enforce those rules. 65% of voters have switched, of course that will include plenty of members, especially in Labour with such a big membership. Why not engage with those who have switched and bring them back rather than push them away? It really is so obvious.
    >
    > But three weeks earlier Labour - and the Tories- polled 31% at the Local Elections.

    Well if you lose over half your votes in 3 weeks that is even worse!

    The local elections were not really a national poll, it didnt include London which is obviously a big part of Labours parliamentary base, the Brexit party werent standing at all, and the other parties only to varying extents, LDs only stood in just over half the seats for, the greens less than a third.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,529
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > @Foxy said:
    > > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > > > @Luckyguy1983 said:
    > > > > But then Alan Clarke thought Heseltine was unredeemably middle class (despite being descended form Scotch trade himself). That's the thing about the English class system, there's always a posher predator up the food chain (ending with fairly bourgeois Brenda at the top, weirdly).
    > > >
    > > > > I think you'll find it's the British class system.
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > I think you'll find it infects England much more than, say, Scotland. Of course we all have to live with the consequences.
    > > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > The Scottish class structure seems to me quite polarised, without the infinite subtle gradiations of resentment that feature south of the border.
    >
    >
    > Well, there certainly aren't a lot of people worrying whether they're lower-upper-middle class or not.
    >
    > I remember a couple of years ago a new system of class categories was touted, and the BBC had an online questionnaire that let you find out which niche you would occupy, it was quite the topic of discussion on here (leavened with a bit of insecurity I thought), but not a smidgeon of interest in the areas of Scottish society I consort with.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22000973
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999
    @YBarddCwsc said:
    But that is not true of the Euro elections prior to 1999 for the LibDems.

    After 1999, growing Euroscepticism meant that the LibDems performed increasingly poorly in the Euros, despite their vote being reasonably steady in the Generals from 1999 to 2009.

    The point remains that a fine performance in the Euros is of no great consequence for the Generals.

    +++++++++++++++++++++

    I always thought the LDs performed poorly in the Euros because they couldn't play their usual tricks:

    - local candidate
    - encourage tactical voting
    - bar charts, councillors, etc

    There's usually an inverse correlation between the size of the constituency and LibDem performance: so, small councils are the best for them, while Euro elections and London Mayoral are usually rubbish.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,172
    > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    > > > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > > > > @Nigelb said:
    > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
    > > > > >
    > > > > > > Plus, did they really think Campbell wouldn't come out fighting?
    > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Do you really think it helps the Remain cause to be associated with Alistair Campbell ...
    > > > > >
    > > > > > The best thing for Remain would be if Campbell and Blair were swallowed up by the Earth.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Missing the point.
    > > > > > No one cares about yesterday’s man Campbell (except perhaps you). It’s the justification, or lack of it, for his expulsion which is toxic.
    > > > >
    > > > > ---
    > > > >
    > > > > If he had voted, and kept his vote private, then there would be no problem.
    > > > >
    > > > > He made public his vote via TV and twitter. That is why he is being rightly expelled.
    > > > >
    > > > > If a member of the Lib Dems announced publicly and volubly on radio and TV that he had voted Conservative, I expect he would be thrown out of the party.
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > If your vote share drops from 40% to 14% in 2 years you are not in a position to enforce those rules. 65% of voters have switched, of course that will include plenty of members, especially in Labour with such a big membership. Why not engage with those who have switched and bring them back rather than push them away? It really is so obvious.
    > >
    > > But three weeks earlier Labour - and the Tories- polled 31% at the Local Elections.
    >
    > Well if you lose over half your votes in 3 weeks that is even worse!
    >
    > The local elections were not really a national poll, it didnt include London which is obviously a big part of Labours parliamentary base, the Brexit party werent standing at all, and the other parties only to varying extents, LDs only stood in just over half the seats for, the greens less than a third.

    Yet in various locations up North, Labour lost seats (even some to the Tory party) and in some areas lost control of the council...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,735
    Good morning, everyone.

    As predicted by me just yesterday, Gollum won't relinquish the Precious:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48441344

    Bercow saying he'll stay on after all is about as surprising as Boris announcing he wants to be leader.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    edited May 2019
    ..
This discussion has been closed.