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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Campbell purged from Corbyn’s LAB for backing the LDs

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  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    > > > @Foxy said:
    > > > > @justin124 said:
    > > > > > @Gallowgate said:
    > > > > > Are you challenging those facts?
    > > > > >
    > > > > > We all know that Lib Dems have historically done well at a local level.
    > > > >
    > > > > Do you seriously believe that a sudden surge over a period of days is likely to be solidly based - particularly on a turnout of under 37%? Is there a core LibDem vote which did not exist 2 weeks ago?
    > > >
    > > > Well, lets see, but Labour should be worried. Increasingly LD are second placed in Tory seats as the challengers, and in urban areas the Greens are a threat to Labour. In the old coalfields the BXP of course.
    > > >
    > > > It is not just the Tories looking over the cliff and wobbling.
    > >
    > > Based on the 2017 election? Or even the 2019 Local Elections? Since when were EU election results a better guide to the underlying strength of parties in the UK?
    >
    > Once people change party for any election, they are unlikely to switch straight back. It is human nature and ominous for both Lab and Tories.
    >
    > I remember all those kipper voters being counted as "Tories on holiday" in 2017. That turned out to not be true. I suspect all those "Labour on holiday" voters currently LD and Green will also not return at next GE.
    >
    > Feel free to not believe me, I am merely an amateur pundit.

    But this has happened many times before. In May 2014 UKIP polled over 26% at the EU elections - less than a year later at the 2015 GE they received 12.5%. At the May 2017 Local Elections the LibDems polled 18% - yet but 5 weeks later could only manage 7.5%. Moreover, voters have always had a pretty frivolous view of EU elections - even more so than Local Elections - and that might be even more the case in the current climate. Why should we give more weight to the elections held on 23rd May v those held on 2nd May?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,871
    Can I humbly offer my profuse and unreserved apologies for my language this afternoon? It is not my intention to bring this site into disrepute and I will calm myself next time the Labour Party does something that gets me wound up.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,439
    edited May 2019
    I like Rory, I like lower-upper-middle class.

    https://twitter.com/fifimellersh/status/1133445935156125697
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935

    > @HYUFD said:

    > twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1133431822518558727?s=20



    Somebody has learned from the James Blunt school of social media....

    Good grief, that's exactly what I was thinking!
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    > @justin124 said:

    > But this has happened many times before. In May 2014 UKIP polled over 26% at the EU elections - less than a year later at the 2015 GE they received 12.5%. At the May 2017 Local Elections the LibDems polled 18% - yet but 5 weeks later could only manage 7.5%. Moreover, voters have always had a pretty frivolous view of EU elections - even more so than Local Elections - and that might be even more the case in the current climate. Why should we give more weight to the elections held on 23rd May v those held on 2nd May?

    ---

    Agreed. I was going to post the self-same point. There are ample examples in the past showing the LibDems or Greens or UKIP doing extremely well in the Euros and then failing to replicate their polling at the Generals.

    No-one takes the Euro elections seriously in the UK.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712

    News from Dublin

    Clare Daly (Ind4Change, Socialists) overtakes Andrews (FF) even before Sinn Fein's elimination.

    So the dispute about if redistributing the SF's transfers won't matter much. Daly takes third seat and Andrews the 4th which will be frozen until Brexit.

    Do other EU states have "frozen seats"?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712

    > @justin124 said:



    > But this has happened many times before. In May 2014 UKIP polled over 26% at the EU elections - less than a year later at the 2015 GE they received 12.5%. At the May 2017 Local Elections the LibDems polled 18% - yet but 5 weeks later could only manage 7.5%. Moreover, voters have always had a pretty frivolous view of EU elections - even more so than Local Elections - and that might be even more the case in the current climate. Why should we give more weight to the elections held on 23rd May v those held on 2nd May?



    ---



    Agreed. I was going to post the self-same point. There are ample examples in the past showing the LibDems or Greens or UKIP doing extremely well in the Euros and then failing to replicate their polling at the Generals.



    No-one takes the Euro elections seriously in the UK.

    Then why stay in the EU? :lol:
  • glwglw Posts: 9,892

    > @HYUFD said:

    > twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1133431822518558727?s=20



    Somebody has learned from the James Blunt school of social media....

    Imagine PM Blunt having a Twitter spat with Trump.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,871
    Not sure what lower-upper-middle-class is. But Rory Stewart is a thinking man's Tory.

    He doesn't stand a chance...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    edited May 2019
    @YBarddCwsc no one is suggesting the Lib Dems or the Green Party will replicate their performance in a General Election. Just that they are likely to do better than previously if Labour continue their Tory Brexit enabling.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712

    Foxy said:

    > @Casino_Royale said:

    > Sort of on topic, I agree that the Conservative Party is basically finished either way.

    >

    > I see this choice as picking the most competent PM to steer the ship, and salvage what can be salvaged from the wreck.

    >

    > That turns my thoughts to the likes of Michael Gove and Matt Hancock.

    >

    > Winning the next General Election is a luxury right now.



    Hancock has been pretty innocuous and invisible at Health. What convinces you that he has a chance? he is not in my book.



    Hunt is pretty capable, and astute enough to abandon the fight at Health. He hasbeen good at the FCO. Top of my book, along with Gove, though I am also green on Baker and McVey, asprobably the worst suited to be PM, therefore likely to be chosen.

    Naturally, we must be careful of talking our books.

    Hancock has been fluent, rational and balanced in his interviews so far and broad-minded in expanding the Tories appeal. He also has experience of writing manifestos and is young and fresh enough to look like a reboot. If he makes it to the final four then he might make to the ballot and it’s not inconceivable he could win up against Hunt, Javid or even Boris as a future election winner.

    Full disclosure: I got £10 on Hancock at 130/1 last year.
    One Matt in Hancock and the world's your oyster
  • glwglw Posts: 9,892

    Not sure what lower-upper-middle-class is. But Rory Stewart is a thinking man's Tory.



    He doesn't stand a chance...

    Not mad or bad, so not a hope in hell.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited May 2019
    Is lower upper middle class the sort of people who shop in Waitrose, but can stomach shopping in a Morrisons and eating at a Nandos?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712

    After the Second World War, Einstein was finished with the Germans for good. He refused to have anything to do with them "out of a need for cleanliness".



    Similarly, Labour should have nothing to do with Alistair Campbell "out of a need for cleanliness".



    Let the LibDems have him.

    Irony of ironies - the LibDems were against Campbell's Iraq War from the start.

    I actually voted for them on several occasions from 2001 to 2008.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    > @HYUFD said:

    > > @AndyJS said:

    > > Latest numbers:

    > >

    > > Gove 20

    > > Raab 20

    > > Johnson 19

    > > Hunt 13

    > > Javid 7

    > > Hancock 7

    > > McVey 5

    > > Harper 4

    > > Leadsom 2

    > > Stewart 2

    > > Malthouse 2

    > > Baker 1

    > > Cleverly 1

    > >

    > > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0

    >

    > Hunt falling back sharply there after his latest comments ruling out No Deal even in October if a Deal cannot be passed by then and the alternative is further extension.

    >

    > Now looks like Gove v Raab or Johnson



    Conhome just now



    Hunt 28

    Johnson 24

    Gove 23

    Raab 20

    Javid 12

    Hunt has probably affected his chances (poorly) by flip flopping again, and no one really trusts Boris. Javid is competent but an empty vessel.

    My thoughts are turning to Gove v. McVey or Gove v. Raab at present. It’s also possible Matt Hancock comes up the middle.
    To be very blunt, there's not a huge groundswell of support in the Parliamentary party to put Philip Davies in to Number 10.

    Harsh but fair on Esther but that's the way of the world.
    The part of the party that you’re hearing that from aren’t the constituency she’s going for, of which Philip Davies is he himself a part.
    The Ultra Vile Wing?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    > @rottenborough said:
    > I am Spartacus!!!!!
    >
    > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1133445453457035264
    >
    >

    That's only going to provoke a chorus of "Fuck off, Fungus" from Momentum.....
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @rottenborough said:
    > I am Spartacus!!!!!
    >
    > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1133445453457035264
    >
    >

    Here in Norwich , there will be great delight at this news. Many will wish to celebrate the expulsion of the former Norwich South MP and Blairite Cabinet Minister.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,439

    Is lower upper middle class the sort of people who can stomach shopping in a Morrisons and eating at a Nandos?

    I hope not.

    I've always been wary of people who obsess about their own class, but for Rory I'll make an exception.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > After the Second World War, Einstein was finished with the Germans for good. He refused to have anything to do with them "out of a need for cleanliness".
    >
    > Similarly, Labour should have nothing to do with Alistair Campbell "out of a need for cleanliness"....

    Or vice versa, with equal justification.
    (ie not much.)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,439
    There's a certain beautiful symmetry there.

    Charles Clarke lost his seat to the Lib Dems.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    justin124 said:

    Here in Norwich , there will be great delight at this news. Many will wish to celebrate the expulsion of the former Norwich South MP and Blairite Cabinet Minister.

    It's this talk that is going to be the death of Labour. Labour only wins when it is a broad church. You are killing the left!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712

    Is lower upper middle class the sort of people who can stomach shopping in a Morrisons and eating at a Nandos?

    I hope not.

    I've always been wary of people who obsess about their own class, but for Rory I'll make an exception.
    Toryboy TSE = Public school posho :lol:
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306

    Mid life crisis as leadership campaign.
    Hancock continues to surprise us.

    https://twitter.com/matthancock/status/1013786371096547328?s=21

    This must stop.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,757
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > Is lower upper middle class the sort of people who shop in Waitrose, but can stomach shopping in a Morrisons and eating at a Nandos?

    Didn't Stephen Fry say something to the effect that Sainsbury's is there to keep the riff raff out of Waitrose. I shop at Sainsbury's
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019
    TudorRose said:

    I don't know if it's been discussed on here but Ashcroft has published his post-vote poll. I was interested in this section;



    "Overall, 89% of Euro-election voters who voted Leave still want Brexit to happen – 55% of them with no deal – and 7% now say they want to remain. Meanwhile, 81% of remainers who voted last week say they still want to remain, with 15% now saying the best outcome would be to leave. Among all those voting in the European elections, 50% said they had voted to remain in the referendum and 45% to leave; now, 50% said they wanted to leave, 46% said they wanted to remain, and 4% didn’t know."



    This seems to be at odds with other pollsters, where the movement is in the other direction. It would suggest the voters on Thursday were more 'Leaver'y than the average.

    How can they have been more Leaver'y when it's 50/45 2016 Remain/Leave ??

    In fact comparing to Ipsos's study of the referendum the survey is more Remainery than average.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    > @Gallowgate said:
    >
    > It's this talk that is going to be the death of Labour. Labour only wins when it is a broad church. You are killing the left!
    ----------

    The Lib Dems will become a broad church party of government just as Labour become an irrelevant fringe group of people with strange tastes in fashion.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    > @NorthofStoke said:
    > On the sub-topic of the voting system for a second referendum. Assuming three options I'd like to suggest the following approach.
    >
    > A voter has up to two votes. They can choose either a single option or two as first and second preferences. If an option gets above 50% from single or first preference votes then it wins. If not then all second preferences are then added to the first preferences and the winner is the option with the highest total. The approach ensures that in the event that an option does not not command a majority then the option that most can live with will pass. It overcomes the STV problem where the compromise option will fall at the first hurdle in a polarised atmosphere.
    >
    > I make no claims to originality, I can't remember seeing this proposed elsewhere but it might have been unconsciously absorbed..

    This is pretty good. The downside is that it's unusual and a little bit complex, which would be demagogued.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    Evening all :)

    It seems there are a few on here willing and able to pour a bucket of cold water on any positive news for the Liberal Democrats.

    The Party did well, really well, at the very top end of my expectations and it has every right to enjoy the moment and take whatever confidence, momentum or whatever it can. After years of disappointment, it seems even one modest success is to be begrudged if we are to believe some of the naysayers on here.

    No one of course assumes the next GE will play out as the EU elections have. While I might obtain a certain wry amusement at the prospect of the Conservatives polling 9% and ending up without a single MP, that ain't going to happen. Nor are Labour going to disappear without a trace - Labour would still hold East Ham comfortably even on the Euro numbers.

    The LDs prosper when they have a USP so the Iraq War then and remaining in the EU now. It's perfectly valid to ask what the Party will do when that USP no longer exists and I don't have an answer. apart from finding another. Obviously, the Euro elections played to that USP in a way a Westminster GE doesn't or perhaps shouldn't.

    As to whether the LDs can keep those who voted for them for the first time last Thursday, a lot will depend on where the other parties go and that has always been the way. The coming of first Blair and then Cameron ended that phase of LD history but another seems to have begun and while 60 seats at the next GE may look very ambitious, so did coming second in a national election not so long ago.

    That's the beauty of politics - always changing, evolving, sometimes in your favour, sometimes not.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Why we need a more British capital
    Let's ditch London and govern from Portsmouth
    Peter Hitchens"

    https://unherd.com/2019/05/why-we-need-a-more-british-capital/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935
    Pro_Rata said:


    Putting that hat on , how would you play it as a No Deal sceptical potential leader?

    I'd go for no deal, period. This arsing around, using words such as "clean break" is bollocks of the purest ray serene. The WA was cobbled together because we went Article 50 too soon so we needed something to tide us over. Since the WA is due to expire in Dec 2020, we might as well extend to then then go no-deal. If we get mini-deals then so much the better, but let's not act on that basis. Devote the next 18 months to mitigation measures then pop off.

    I am weary beyond description of the perpetual refusal of our politicians to come to terms with reality, the refusal of our media to hold them to account. Ok, no-deal is a big thing that will hurt. So let's make the appropriate adjustments, deploy resources to the worst affected areas, then crack on. I hold the Conservative approach of failing and blaming in such low esteem by now, I...well, I have no more words... :(
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    It seems there are a few on here willing and able to pour a bucket of cold water on any positive news for the Liberal Democrats.

    The Party did well, really well, at the very top end of my expectations and it has every right to enjoy the moment and take whatever confidence, momentum or whatever it can. After years of disappointment, it seems even one modest success is to be begrudged if we are to believe some of the naysayers on here.

    No one of course assumes the next GE will play out as the EU elections have. While I might obtain a certain wry amusement at the prospect of the Conservatives polling 9% and ending up without a single MP, that ain't going to happen. Nor are Labour going to disappear without a trace - Labour would still hold East Ham comfortably even on the Euro numbers.

    The LDs prosper when they have a USP so the Iraq War then and remaining in the EU now. It's perfectly valid to ask what the Party will do when that USP no longer exists and I don't have an answer. apart from finding another. Obviously, the Euro elections played to that USP in a way a Westminster GE doesn't or perhaps shouldn't.

    As to whether the LDs can keep those who voted for them for the first time last Thursday, a lot will depend on where the other parties go and that has always been the way. The coming of first Blair and then Cameron ended that phase of LD history but another seems to have begun and while 60 seats at the next GE may look very ambitious, so did coming second in a national election not so long ago.

    That's the beauty of politics - always changing, evolving, sometimes in your favour, sometimes not.

    I poured water over it by saying it was just churn from Remain 2014, but that is only relevant to a second referendum, not Lib Dem fortunes, so I was wrong to do that.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712
    Meridian Water station opening has been delayed again! London's newest station was supposed to originally open on 20th May, then today 28th, now it's June 3rd!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > @rottenborough said:
    > > I am Spartacus!!!!!
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1133445453457035264
    > >
    > >
    >
    > That's only going to provoke a chorus of "Fuck off, Fungus" from Momentum.....

    The very next post proved your point

    Purity is all comrades
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    > @edmundintokyo said:
    > > @NorthofStoke said:
    > > On the sub-topic of the voting system for a second referendum. Assuming three options I'd like to suggest the following approach.
    > >
    > > A voter has up to two votes. They can choose either a single option or two as first and second preferences. If an option gets above 50% from single or first preference votes then it wins. If not then all second preferences are then added to the first preferences and the winner is the option with the highest total. The approach ensures that in the event that an option does not not command a majority then the option that most can live with will pass. It overcomes the STV problem where the compromise option will fall at the first hurdle in a polarised atmosphere.
    > >
    > > I make no claims to originality, I can't remember seeing this proposed elsewhere but it might have been unconsciously absorbed..
    >
    > This is pretty good. The downside is that it's unusual and a little bit complex, which would be demagogued.

    Remember that (Tory) MPs baulked at using even AV for the first round of Letwin’s indicative votes. I would be amazed if they ever agreed any referendum that wasn’t a simple X between two alternatives.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,871
    The I Am Spartacus approach feels like a new strategy. Post something knowing it will get you booted from the party. Which gives them the freedom to do something new.

    What though?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    > @Luckyguy1983 said:
    > https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1133357779194982400
    >
    >
    >
    > I lolled.


    And people say Tory self-awareness is dead.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > I like Rory, I like lower-upper-middle class.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/fifimellersh/status/1133445935156125697

    The English class system is onion like in its layers of exclusion, so even within Eton there are gradiations. Even so this is absurd, the spectrum varies from Upper Class to Upper Middle Class.

    Rory does have the common touch, and seems genuinely able to establish a rapport with quite a wide spectrum of people. If he didn't look like agargoyle he might stand a chance next time round.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    edited May 2019
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > I am Spartacus!!!!!
    >
    >
    >
    > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1133445453457035264
    >
    >
    >
    > There's a certain beautiful symmetry there.
    >
    > Charles Clarke lost his seat to the Lib Dems.

    But strictly - and hence legally- isn’t the offence either standing against your party or encouraging people to vote against your party? Fessing up to having voted away from home once the election is over and done with isn’t an offence IMHO and doesn’t demand immediate expulsion. The quicker someone in Labour HQ realises this the better, if only to save on the nails being wasted hoisting all these Spartacuses onto crosses.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,717
    > @stodge said:
    > Evening all :)
    >
    > It seems there are a few on here willing and able to pour a bucket of cold water on any positive news for the Liberal Democrats.
    >
    > The Party did well, really well, at the very top end of my expectations and it has every right to enjoy the moment and take whatever confidence, momentum or whatever it can. After years of disappointment, it seems even one modest success is to be begrudged if we are to believe some of the naysayers on here.
    >
    > No one of course assumes the next GE will play out as the EU elections have. While I might obtain a certain wry amusement at the prospect of the Conservatives polling 9% and ending up without a single MP, that ain't going to happen. Nor are Labour going to disappear without a trace - Labour would still hold East Ham comfortably even on the Euro numbers.
    >
    > The LDs prosper when they have a USP so the Iraq War then and remaining in the EU now. It's perfectly valid to ask what the Party will do when that USP no longer exists and I don't have an answer. apart from finding another. Obviously, the Euro elections played to that USP in a way a Westminster GE doesn't or perhaps shouldn't.
    >
    > As to whether the LDs can keep those who voted for them for the first time last Thursday, a lot will depend on where the other parties go and that has always been the way. The coming of first Blair and then Cameron ended that phase of LD history but another seems to have begun and while 60 seats at the next GE may look very ambitious, so did coming second in a national election not so long ago.
    >
    > That's the beauty of politics - always changing, evolving, sometimes in your favour, sometimes not.

    Do you sense the activists would prefer getting 30-50 MPs on 15-20% of the vote with largely the same character as todays party, or getting 100+ MPs on 20-30% of the vote, possibly more, but actively encourage into the party the likes of Heidi Allen, Nicky Morgan, Ken Clarke, Chuka Umunna, Tom Watson which would change the face of the party. (Whether all the above would join or not, some would and the signal to the electorate is LD would be a different, broader party).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503
    > @stodge said:
    > Evening all :)
    >
    > It seems there are a few on here willing and able to pour a bucket of cold water on any positive news for the Liberal Democrats.
    >
    > The Party did well, really well, at the very top end of my expectations and it has every right to enjoy the moment and take whatever confidence, momentum or whatever it can. After years of disappointment, it seems even one modest success is to be begrudged if we are to believe some of the naysayers on here.
    >
    > No one of course assumes the next GE will play out as the EU elections have. While I might obtain a certain wry amusement at the prospect of the Conservatives polling 9% and ending up without a single MP, that ain't going to happen. Nor are Labour going to disappear without a trace - Labour would still hold East Ham comfortably even on the Euro numbers.
    >
    > The LDs prosper when they have a USP so the Iraq War then and remaining in the EU now. It's perfectly valid to ask what the Party will do when that USP no longer exists and I don't have an answer. apart from finding another. Obviously, the Euro elections played to that USP in a way a Westminster GE doesn't or perhaps shouldn't.
    >
    > As to whether the LDs can keep those who voted for them for the first time last Thursday, a lot will depend on where the other parties go and that has always been the way. The coming of first Blair and then Cameron ended that phase of LD history but another seems to have begun and while 60 seats at the next GE may look very ambitious, so did coming second in a national election not so long ago.
    >
    > That's the beauty of politics - always changing, evolving, sometimes in your favour, sometimes not.

    Even after Brexit is dead, the faultlines will remain. Perhaps like Ireland we will have 2 parties formed out of pro and ant treaty factions a century later. Nativist conservatives vs internationalist liberals.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    > @IanB2 said:
    >
    > But strictly - and hence legally- isn’t the offence either standing against your party or encouraging people to vote against your party? Fessing up to having voted away from home once the election is over and done with isn’t an offence IMHO and doesn’t demand immediate expulsion. The quicker someone in Labour HQ realises this the better, if only to save on the nails being wasted hoisting all these Spartacuses onto crosses.
    ---------

    The Spartaci should say they will keep voting Lib Dem until the Labour party gets a coherent policy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    Foxy said:

    > @TheScreamingEagles said:

    > I like Rory, I like lower-upper-middle class.

    >

    >





    The English class system is onion like in its layers of exclusion, so even within Eton there are gradiations. Even so this is absurd, the spectrum varies from Upper Class to Upper Middle Class.



    Rory does have the common touch, and seems genuinely able to establish a rapport with quite a wide spectrum of people. If he didn't look like agargoyle he might stand a chance next time round.
    Boris refers to David Cameron as Cameron Minor. As Dave's brother, Cameron Major, is older, and the same year as Boris.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @stodge said:
    > > Evening all :)
    > >
    > > It seems there are a few on here willing and able to pour a bucket of cold water on any positive news for the Liberal Democrats.
    > >
    > > The Party did well, really well, at the very top end of my expectations and it has every right to enjoy the moment and take whatever confidence, momentum or whatever it can. After years of disappointment, it seems even one modest success is to be begrudged if we are to believe some of the naysayers on here.
    > >
    > > No one of course assumes the next GE will play out as the EU elections have. While I might obtain a certain wry amusement at the prospect of the Conservatives polling 9% and ending up without a single MP, that ain't going to happen. Nor are Labour going to disappear without a trace - Labour would still hold East Ham comfortably even on the Euro numbers.
    > >
    > > The LDs prosper when they have a USP so the Iraq War then and remaining in the EU now. It's perfectly valid to ask what the Party will do when that USP no longer exists and I don't have an answer. apart from finding another. Obviously, the Euro elections played to that USP in a way a Westminster GE doesn't or perhaps shouldn't.
    > >
    > > As to whether the LDs can keep those who voted for them for the first time last Thursday, a lot will depend on where the other parties go and that has always been the way. The coming of first Blair and then Cameron ended that phase of LD history but another seems to have begun and while 60 seats at the next GE may look very ambitious, so did coming second in a national election not so long ago.
    > >
    > > That's the beauty of politics - always changing, evolving, sometimes in your favour, sometimes not.
    >
    > Even after Brexit is dead, the faultlines will remain. Perhaps like Ireland we will have 2 parties formed out of pro and ant treaty factions a century later. Nativist conservatives vs internationalist liberals.
    >
    >

    15 years max I would suggest in the 21st century, unless it morphs into climate tribes or something similar.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    then retweeted several times by Scott P.

    I didn't retweet it at all
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    > @IanB2 said:
    > Remember that (Tory) MPs baulked at using even AV for the first round of Letwin’s indicative votes. I would be amazed if they ever agreed any referendum that wasn’t a simple X between two alternatives.

    This is true. You might be able to get 2 rounds past them (vote to decide what Leave is, the 2 weeks later vote to decide whether to do it or not) since in each case it's a simple X between two alternatives.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,294
    Foxy said:

    > @TheScreamingEagles said:

    > I like Rory, I like lower-upper-middle class.

    >

    >





    The English class system is onion like in its layers of exclusion, so even within Eton there are gradiations. Even so this is absurd, the spectrum varies from Upper Class to Upper Middle Class.



    Rory does have the common touch, and seems genuinely able to establish a rapport with quite a wide spectrum of people. If he didn't look like agargoyle he might stand a chance next time round.
    This class talk is distasteful.
    We need to move on from defining people in this way.

    By the way did anyone else see that awful clip in Episode 1 of the Thatcher doc where Heseltine snobbily describes “bad Margaret” as her lower-middle-class character coming out?

    What an arse.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306

    Foxy said:

    > @TheScreamingEagles said:

    > I like Rory, I like lower-upper-middle class.

    >

    >





    The English class system is onion like in its layers of exclusion, so even within Eton there are gradiations. Even so this is absurd, the spectrum varies from Upper Class to Upper Middle Class.



    Rory does have the common touch, and seems genuinely able to establish a rapport with quite a wide spectrum of people. If he didn't look like agargoyle he might stand a chance next time round.
    This class talk is distasteful.
    We need to move on from defining people in this way.

    By the way did anyone else see that awful clip in Episode 1 of the Thatcher doc where Heseltine snobbily describes “bad Margaret” as her lower-middle-class character coming out?

    What an arse.
    Heseltine was just displaying his own insecurity. He was described, after all, by Alan Clark, as the sort of man who had to buy his own furniture.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    > @Scott_P said:
    > then retweeted several times by Scott P.
    >
    > I didn't retweet it at all

    Whooooooosh......
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited May 2019
    > @Scott_P said:
    > twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1133457008475164672

    It was clear he was not going with all the waffle a few months ago.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306
    Scott_P said:

    then retweeted several times by Scott P.

    I didn't retweet it at all
    :lol: I put that in especially because I know you hate your tweetpasting here being described as retweeting. It's the little things...
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    > @Gardenwalker said:
    >
    > By the way did anyone else see that awful clip in Episode 1 of the Thatcher doc where Heseltine snobbily describes “bad Margaret” as her lower-middle-class character coming out?
    >
    > What an arse.

    No more awful than Gardenwalker talking about the Welsh "in their Valleys dunghills."

    As you correctly say, what an arse.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306
    The Blairites are revolting!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Wonder what price the bookies would go LD vs Lab vote % match bet at the next GE? Anyone want to price it up for some sport?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > News from Dublin
    >
    > Clare Daly (Ind4Change, Socialists) overtakes Andrews (FF) even before Sinn Fein's elimination.
    >
    > So the dispute about if redistributing the SF's transfers won't matter much. Daly takes third seat and Andrews the 4th which will be frozen until Brexit.
    >
    > Do other EU states have "frozen seats"?

    Yes, thirteen others: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/resources/library/media/20180123RES92302/20180123RES92302.pdf
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    > @Luckyguy1983 said:
    > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    >
    > > I like Rory, I like lower-upper-middle class.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > https://twitter.com/fifimellersh/status/1133445935156125697
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > The English class system is onion like in its layers of exclusion, so even within Eton there are gradiations. Even so this is absurd, the spectrum varies from Upper Class to Upper Middle Class.
    >
    >
    >
    > Rory does have the common touch, and seems genuinely able to establish a rapport with quite a wide spectrum of people. If he didn't look like agargoyle he might stand a chance next time round.
    >
    > This class talk is distasteful.
    > We need to move on from defining people in this way.
    >
    > By the way did anyone else see that awful clip in Episode 1 of the Thatcher doc where Heseltine snobbily describes “bad Margaret” as her lower-middle-class character coming out?
    >
    > What an arse.
    >
    > Heseltine was just displaying his own insecurity. He was described, after all, by Alan Clark, as the sort of man who had to buy his own furniture.

    Alan Clark of whom a genuine grandee said "that's a bit rich, coming from someone whose dad had to buy his own castle."
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712
    rpjs said:

    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:

    > News from Dublin

    >

    > Clare Daly (Ind4Change, Socialists) overtakes Andrews (FF) even before Sinn Fein's elimination.

    >

    > So the dispute about if redistributing the SF's transfers won't matter much. Daly takes third seat and Andrews the 4th which will be frozen until Brexit.

    >

    > Do other EU states have "frozen seats"?



    Yes, thirteen others: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/resources/library/media/20180123RES92302/20180123RES92302.pdf

    Thanks!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    > @edmundintokyo said:
    > > @IanB2 said:
    > > Remember that (Tory) MPs baulked at using even AV for the first round of Letwin’s indicative votes. I would be amazed if they ever agreed any referendum that wasn’t a simple X between two alternatives.
    >
    > This is true. You might be able to get 2 rounds past them (vote to decide what Leave is, the 2 weeks later vote to decide whether to do it or not) since in each case it's a simple X between two alternatives.

    It’s a sad fact that our society’s simplest minds are of those elected to represent us.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,294

    > @Gardenwalker said:

    >

    > By the way did anyone else see that awful clip in Episode 1 of the Thatcher doc where Heseltine snobbily describes “bad Margaret” as her lower-middle-class character coming out?

    >

    > What an arse.



    No more awful than Gardenwalker talking about the Welsh "in their Valleys dunghills."



    As you correctly say, what an arse.

    My dunghill reference was to you personally, not to the Welsh in general.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,172
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > Is lower upper middle class the sort of people who can stomach shopping in a Morrisons and eating at a Nandos?
    >
    > I hope not.
    >
    > I've always been wary of people who obsess about their own class, but for Rory I'll make an exception.

    I shop at Morrisons - but only because our Sainsburys is crap and the nearest Booths is too far away....
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306
    Ishmael_Z said:

    > @Luckyguy1983 said:

    > > @TheScreamingEagles said:

    >

    > > I like Rory, I like lower-upper-middle class.

    >

    > >

    >

    > >



    >

    >

    >

    >

    >

    > The English class system is onion like in its layers of exclusion, so even within Eton there are gradiations. Even so this is absurd, the spectrum varies from Upper Class to Upper Middle Class.

    >

    >

    >

    > Rory does have the common touch, and seems genuinely able to establish a rapport with quite a wide spectrum of people. If he didn't look like agargoyle he might stand a chance next time round.

    >

    > This class talk is distasteful.

    > We need to move on from defining people in this way.

    >

    > By the way did anyone else see that awful clip in Episode 1 of the Thatcher doc where Heseltine snobbily describes “bad Margaret” as her lower-middle-class character coming out?

    >

    > What an arse.

    >

    > Heseltine was just displaying his own insecurity. He was described, after all, by Alan Clark, as the sort of man who had to buy his own furniture.



    Alan Clark of whom a genuine grandee said "that's a bit rich, coming from someone whose dad had to buy his own castle."
    Well, that's true. Alan Clark was also being a bit insecure - his family were Victorian industrialists, so a bit nouveau riche!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,529
    ' Hundreds of British teenagers are being sent by their parents to East Africa to avoid knife crime in the UK, representatives of the Somali community say. '

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48353960

    Third world city.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    Can't help thinking the idiots who run Jezza's office have dropped an absolute clanger with Campbell.

    Every journalist who has got out of bed in last twenty years knows Campbell is a total Labour tribalist.

    Tons of Labour members who voted Lib Dem will be saying tonight - hey that's me.

    Total own goal, but as ever, purity is the lodestar.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,717
    > @isam said:
    > Wonder what price the bookies would go LD vs Lab vote % match bet at the next GE? Anyone want to price it up for some sport?

    Not a tradable price but 1.25 Labour 5 LDs for vote share and 1.14 Labour 8 LDS most seats

    (exact rules could make a difference with the possibility of LD being in a remain alliance etc)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Can't help thinking the idiots who run Jezza's office have dropped an absolute clanger with Campbell.



    Every journalist who has got out of bed in last twenty years knows Campbell is a total Labour tribalist.



    Tons of Labour members who voted Lib Dem will be saying tonight - hey that's me.



    Total own goal, but as ever, purity is the lodestar.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1133459389090881536
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,872
    > @Gardenwalker said:
    > This class talk is distasteful.
    > We need to move on from defining people in this way.
    >
    > By the way did anyone else see that awful clip in Episode 1 of the Thatcher doc where Heseltine snobbily describes “bad Margaret” as her lower-middle-class character coming out?
    >
    > What an arse.


    But then Alan Clarke thought Heseltine was unredeemably middle class (despite being descended form Scotch trade himself). That's the thing about the English class system, there's always a posher predator up the food chain (ending with fairly bourgeois Brenda at the top, weirdly).
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,529
    > @Ishmael_Z said:
    > > @Luckyguy1983 said:
    > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > >
    > > > I like Rory, I like lower-upper-middle class.
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > https://twitter.com/fifimellersh/status/1133445935156125697
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > The English class system is onion like in its layers of exclusion, so even within Eton there are gradiations. Even so this is absurd, the spectrum varies from Upper Class to Upper Middle Class.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Rory does have the common touch, and seems genuinely able to establish a rapport with quite a wide spectrum of people. If he didn't look like agargoyle he might stand a chance next time round.
    > >
    > > This class talk is distasteful.
    > > We need to move on from defining people in this way.
    > >
    > > By the way did anyone else see that awful clip in Episode 1 of the Thatcher doc where Heseltine snobbily describes “bad Margaret” as her lower-middle-class character coming out?
    > >
    > > What an arse.
    > >
    > > Heseltine was just displaying his own insecurity. He was described, after all, by Alan Clark, as the sort of man who had to buy his own furniture.
    >
    > Alan Clark of whom a genuine grandee said "that's a bit rich, coming from someone whose dad had to buy his own castle."

    I've heard that story before but does anyone know who the grandee was.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306
    eek said:

    > @TheScreamingEagles said:

    > Is lower upper middle class the sort of people who can stomach shopping in a Morrisons and eating at a Nandos?

    >

    > I hope not.

    >

    > I've always been wary of people who obsess about their own class, but for Rory I'll make an exception.



    I shop at Morrisons - but only because our Sainsburys is crap and the nearest Booths is too far away....

    I like Morrisons. They've just got rid of plastic bags and all packaging in their fruit and veg section. I get Tesco deliveries but only because Fortnums food hall don't deliver to my neck of the woods (they probably do actually).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    Plus, did they really think Campbell wouldn't come out fighting?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306

    Plus, did they really think Campbell wouldn't come out fighting?

    I would imagine they were counting on it.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    One thing you can say for Rory Stewart is that he has over the last few days generated a fair amount of (generally favourable) publicity for a rank outsider. Am beginning to think he might yet be a contender (and yes I do know what is currently stacked against him at both stages of the process). Nevertheless, an outsider turning received wisdom on its head is a not-unknown feature of Tory leadership campaigns.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    > @Gardenwalker said:
    >
    > My dunghill reference was to you personally, not to the Welsh in general.

    Play the ball not the man.

    If you have to play the man because you are so bereft of wit that you cannot play the ball, then my advice is don't bring race into it.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    > @isam said:

    > Wonder what price the bookies would go LD vs Lab vote % match bet at the next GE? Anyone want to price it up for some sport?



    Not a tradable price but 1.25 Labour 5 LDs for vote share and 1.14 Labour 8 LDS most seats



    (exact rules could make a difference with the possibility of LD being in a remain alliance etc)

    Think I’d be a backer of the Dems at those rates. Ladbrokes have Labour in for about 34% of votes and LD 4th in at 20/1 so I think your price is about right off that, others would know better than me.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,529
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > @Gardenwalker said:
    > > This class talk is distasteful.
    > > We need to move on from defining people in this way.
    > >
    > > By the way did anyone else see that awful clip in Episode 1 of the Thatcher doc where Heseltine snobbily describes “bad Margaret” as her lower-middle-class character coming out?
    > >
    > > What an arse.
    >
    >
    > But then Alan Clarke thought Heseltine was unredeemably middle class (despite being descended form Scotch trade himself). That's the thing about the English class system, there's always a posher predator up the food chain (ending with fairly bourgeois Brenda at the top, weirdly).

    But she's descended from some low born Viking settlers of Normandy.

    Who were themselves looked down upon by the genuine Viking nobility.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712
    edited May 2019

    Can't help thinking the idiots who run Jezza's office have dropped an absolute clanger with Campbell.



    Every journalist who has got out of bed in last twenty years knows Campbell is a total Labour tribalist.



    Tons of Labour members who voted Lib Dem will be saying tonight - hey that's me.



    Total own goal, but as ever, purity is the lodestar.

    Didn't the LibDems vote against Campbell's Iraq War?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    > @Luckyguy1983 said:

    > Well, that's true. Alan Clark was also being a bit insecure - his family were Victorian industrialists, so a bit nouveau riche!

    "The Clarks were a Scottish family who had grown rich in the textile trade."

    per wikipedia.

    Textiles were not the only thing that C19th UK textile magnates shipped across the Atlantic.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,717
    > @isam said:
    > > @isam said:
    >
    > > Wonder what price the bookies would go LD vs Lab vote % match bet at the next GE? Anyone want to price it up for some sport?
    >
    >
    >
    > Not a tradable price but 1.25 Labour 5 LDs for vote share and 1.14 Labour 8 LDS most seats
    >
    >
    >
    > (exact rules could make a difference with the possibility of LD being in a remain alliance etc)
    >
    > Think I’d be a backer of the Dems at those rates. Ladbrokes have Labour in for about 34% of votes and LD 4th in at 20/1 so I think your price is about right off that, others would know better than me.

    Labour under 34% sounds excellent value (IF corbyn is leader, they could romp it with virtually anyone else).
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,294
    The news cycle moves quickly.

    We’ve already forgotten that Labour high command apparently coordinated a social media attack on Paul Mason for having the temerity to question the referendum non-policy.

    Mason is now a non-person, apparently.

    This is more shocking in a way to me than Campbell because you’d think Mason was ideologically more simpatico...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306

    > @Theuniondivvie said:

    > > @Gardenwalker said:

    > > This class talk is distasteful.

    > > We need to move on from defining people in this way.

    > >

    > > By the way did anyone else see that awful clip in Episode 1 of the Thatcher doc where Heseltine snobbily describes “bad Margaret” as her lower-middle-class character coming out?

    > >

    > > What an arse.

    >

    >

    > But then Alan Clarke thought Heseltine was unredeemably middle class (despite being descended form Scotch trade himself). That's the thing about the English class system, there's always a posher predator up the food chain (ending with fairly bourgeois Brenda at the top, weirdly).



    But she's descended from some low born Viking settlers of Normandy.



    Who were themselves looked down upon by the genuine Viking nobility.

    Well most aristocratic dynasties come from questionable origins, like nicking sheep or doing something unspeakable for Charles II. It's part of our rich cultural heritage.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited May 2019
    > @rottenborough said:
    > Plus, did they really think Campbell wouldn't come out fighting?
    >

    Do you really think it helps the Remain cause to be associated with Alistair Campbell ...

    The best thing for Remain would be if Campbell and Blair were swallowed up by the Earth.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    edited May 2019
    Is 'Stop the War' an "official Labour group" as defined in the rule that throw Campbell out?

    Because if it is not, then there is a case against Jezza who was/is that group's Chair.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,529
    edited May 2019
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > Can't help thinking the idiots who run Jezza's office have dropped an absolute clanger with Campbell.
    >
    >
    >
    > Every journalist who has got out of bed in last twenty years knows Campbell is a total Labour tribalist.
    >
    >
    >
    > Tons of Labour members who voted Lib Dem will be saying tonight - hey that's me.
    >
    >
    >
    > Total own goal, but as ever, purity is the lodestar.
    >
    > Didn't the LibDems vote against Campbell's Iraq War?

    That was before they voted for Cameron's Libya and Syria wars.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    For that matter - what does joining 'Compass' mean?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > > Can't help thinking the idiots who run Jezza's office have dropped an absolute clanger with Campbell.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Every journalist who has got out of bed in last twenty years knows Campbell is a total Labour tribalist.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Tons of Labour members who voted Lib Dem will be saying tonight - hey that's me.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Total own goal, but as ever, purity is the lodestar.
    > >
    > > Didn't the LibDems vote against Campbell's Iraq War?
    >
    > That was before they voted for Cameron's Libya and Syria wars.

    One of Jezza's key aides is a former LibDem member iirc.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    >
    > The best thing for Remain would be if Campbell and Blair were swallowed up the Earth.

    I've heard Blair-haters say that he's the only person making sense on Brexit. The whole thing is detoxifying them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    Foxy said:

    > @TheScreamingEagles said:

    > I like Rory, I like lower-upper-middle class.

    >

    >





    The English class system is onion like in its layers of exclusion, so even within Eton there are gradiations. Even so this is absurd, the spectrum varies from Upper Class to Upper Middle Class.



    Rory does have the common touch, and seems genuinely able to establish a rapport with quite a wide spectrum of people. If he didn't look like a gargoyle he might stand a chance next time round.
    Rory really doesn’t have a mouth like a drain.
    He’s more a grotesque.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    > @rottenborough said:
    > Is 'Stop the War' an "official Labour group" as defined in the rule that throw Campbell out?
    >
    > Because if it is not, then there is a case against Jezza who was/is that group's Chair.

    Good point. It was a SWP front organisation.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,529
    > @williamglenn said:
    > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > >
    > > The best thing for Remain would be if Campbell and Blair were swallowed up the Earth.
    >
    > I've heard Blair-haters say that he's the only person making sense on Brexit. The whole thing is detoxifying them.

    Take a look at the polls on Blair.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790

    > @rottenborough said:

    > Plus, did they really think Campbell wouldn't come out fighting?

    >



    Do you really think it helps the Remain cause to be associated with Alistair Campbell ...



    The best thing for Remain would be if Campbell and Blair were swallowed up by the Earth.


    Missing the point.
    No one cares about yesterday’s man Campbell (except perhaps you). It’s the justification, or lack of it, for his expulsion which is toxic.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,717
    > @Gardenwalker said:
    > The news cycle moves quickly.
    >
    > We’ve already forgotten that Labour high command apparently coordinated a social media attack on Paul Mason for having the temerity to question the referendum non-policy.
    >
    > Mason is now a non-person, apparently.
    >
    > This is more shocking in a way to me than Campbell because you’d think Mason was ideologically more simpatico...

    Indeed, it is obvious the Corbynites will eventually all turn on each other as they try and maintain this strict adherence to the Leader with no dissent allowed. Please can they hurry up and return the Labour party to a grown up, tolerant party.
This discussion has been closed.