> @Richard_Nabavi said: > It isn't the lesser disaster for the party - no Brexit is the end. Canada style. Forever. Dolts like Hammond may not get that but there is not way out of it. > > You are probably right that No Brexit is the end for the party. You are completely wrong in thinking Hammond doesn't understand that, or that he is a dolt. The missing bit in your thinking is not appreciating that crashing out in no deal, with the attendant job losses, bankruptcies and disruption to daily life, is even worse. It will never be forgotten, especially by the younger people who will be the ones most badly hit.
That Hammond takes this as read - that he can only react , not be proactive to mitigate shows how limited his thinking is.
> @Gardenwalker said: > It is simultaneously amusing, heartbreaking, and terrifying to watch Brexit destroy the two party system (just another victim of Brexit’s insatiable maw). > > No one seems to know how to stop the nuclear clock countdown, on either side of the House. > > As a hardcore Remainer I eventually reconciled myself to May’s final deal, only to see it demolished on impact by so-called Labour Brexiters like Lisa Nandy (among others). Perhaps Nandy needs to explain *that* to her constituents.
I suppose one has to accept we're in a period of realignment like the 1920's. The division between Labour and Conservatives, based on economics, no longer means much to people. We're reverting to an earlier pattern, whereby the political divide was over constitutional issues.
> @TGOHF said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > It isn't the lesser disaster for the party - no Brexit is the end. Canada style. Forever. Dolts like Hammond may not get that but there is not way out of it. > > > > You are probably right that No Brexit is the end for the party. You are completely wrong in thinking Hammond doesn't understand that, or that he is a dolt. The missing bit in your thinking is not appreciating that crashing out in no deal, with the attendant job losses, bankruptcies and disruption to daily life, is even worse. It will never be forgotten, especially by the younger people who will be the ones most badly hit. > > That Hammond takes this as read - that he can only react , not be proactive to mitigate shows how limited his thinking is. > >
How do you mitigate for unknown unknowns when the known issues and known unknowns will more than occupy all available time....
> @Benpointer said: > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > @Benpointer said: > > > > @Stark_Dawning said: > > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1133377952006180864 > > > > > > > > Good strategy: get Farage to really own No Deal. When the maelstrom hits, it will at least give us some satisfaction to see him try to wriggle out of it. > > > > > > -------- > > > > > > It will be: 'the political establishment implemented No Deal badly, if I had done it it would have been a blazing success'. > > > > Yep, and there are 30% of the electorate who are so mind numbingly stupid that they will believe the lying little toad > > Maybe. But don't forget that only 11% of the electorate were stupid enough to vote for him last Thursday.
and that of that 11% a lot also knew it was a short term protect vote...
Putting two and two together on Jeremy Hunt's positioning he must be the candidate of a second referendum, but first he wants to tie all the participants into a deal so that they can't disown it as "not Brexit".
> @ydoethur said: > Tom Watson has gone from looking svelte to looking positively gaunt.
He seems to be getting quite a bit of exercise now that he has his diabetes in remission by losing 7 stone. Jess Phillips has lost a couple of stone too.
> @rural_voter said: > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > A Brexit/Tory pact could do very well if the Tories run as the Tories in their natural constituencies and The Brexit Party goes down on the ballot in Hartlepool etc. > > > Not sure I can see Farage's ego agreeing to that though. > > Will Arron Banks and his backers approve though? > ______________________ > > I can almost see it happening. It's best called using FPTP to fiddle the result. > > Lord Ashcroft's poll gave four parties Lab/Con/LD/B****t all on ~18-22%. Under FPTP, that gives maybe 275 Lab seats, due to FPTP being overgenerous to Lab on tiny percentages. But little chance of a Lab majority. It would need LDs, SNP or both. > > Even so, an effectively SDP government is far too left-wing for Banks et al. So Con and B****t hope to create a fake party on a combined 35-40% of the vote to get 350 seats a.k.a. the usual elected dictatorship. > > Thatcher Emerges from the Grave, as Bogdanor put it. Aaargh.
Scrap the NHS coalition getting 40%? Cant see it myself.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > Bercows decision further increases the likelihood of an October general election and a Brexit Party/Con pact IMO. > > > > > > And the end of brexit > > > > Brexit will only happen with a new parliament - this parliament will never allow it. > > > > So it's do or die in October - The people WILL have a vote but it will be in a general election not a second referendum, IMO. > > And in that election Brexit will die ________
I hope you're right. I've been on the verge of reinstating my French citizenship for 3 years, so that I can continue to be an EU citizen, but I'm still waiting for Brexshit to resolve itself. I feel a lot more loyal to the UK than France and don't want my country to do this.
~60-70% of the UK population are stuffed in regard to FOM. They don't have an Irish or German grandparent, a French father or another convenient relative.
> @tottenhamWC said: > Someone earlier came up with an interesting - and quite creative - future Brexit referendum scenario. > > Remain vs. No Deal are the two options, with a necessary 55 per cent threshold to be validated (plus, in addition, an equivalent or greater level of support is required, on top, to exceed those that voted "Leave" last time - >17.4 million). > > Otherwise, if both options fall short of 55 per cent (or less than 17.4 million votes); we follow through with Theresa May's already negotiated (and deliverable) deal as the compromise "default" option. > > Also, as a bonus, it sets a nice precedent for any future Scottish independence referendum in terms of threshold required to change the result from last time..... > > Am sure there are much worse options in terms of getting the Tories out of the mess
That's a quite brilliant suggestion - in Single Stochastic Vote territory.
Leadsom 2? Personally, I despise her. But I'll never vote Tory anyway. Talking to a few people the other day, I picked up on a fair bit of positivity for her. Are the Tories missing a trick here?
~60-70% of the UK population are stuffed in regard to FOM. They don't have an Irish or German grandparent, a French father or another convenient relative.
~ 30% of the UK has an EU grandparent or is from the EU ?
I need to go back to a Great Great grandparent before I get to any EU lineage ^^;
> I suppose one has to accept we're in a period of realignment like the 1920's. > The division between Labour and Conservatives, based on economics, no > longer means much to people. We're reverting to an earlier pattern, whereby > the political divide was over constitutional issues.
Is it constitutional, or is it identity?
Between internationalist, small-l socially and economically liberal, youthful, graduates, and nationalist, small-c socially conservative, economically protectionist, older non-graduates.
> The Spitzenkandidaten process isn't official. It was an idea that came from Selmayr. According to the treaties the EU Council can decide who they want as long as the parliament votes for them.
Yeah, they were happy to go along with it when it suited them.
If memory serves, Cameron forced the issue by arguing for an election amongst the EU28. It backfired when Juncker was elected with only us and Urban voting against. I don't know if there will be a formal election this time.
However I do need to point out that seeing we are going to appoint the fifth[1] Prime Minister in fifty years by bypassing the electorate entirely, two of whom never won a General Election , it may seem invidious to twit the Europeans on this matter.
> @StuartDickson said: > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > What is left of SLAB is collapsing right now. > > Left winger Neil Findlay resigns from shadow cabinet and announces he will stand down in 2021. > > Daniel Johnson (moderate) is considering quitting shadow cabinet too. > > Labour MSPs group meeting takes place this afternoon > > They are going to have to reassess their opposition to independence. Even a neutral position would help them. Right now they’re simply aping the Tories, and you just can’t out-Tory the Tories.
> @nico67 said: > If the Brexit Party agree a pact with the Tories at the next election the other parties need to do the same. > > In places where Lib Dems are second to the Tories , Labour and the Greens need to stand aside . > > Lib Dems need to reciprocate equally . I know many are uncomfortable with this but it would be a national emergency ! > > If they don’t they could allow in the most right wing government in the UK supported by the hate monger Farage.
Another quasi-referendum, following on from the Euro elections?
> @Tabman said: > > Is it constitutional, or is it identity? > > Between internationalist, small-l socially and economically liberal, youthful, graduates, and nationalist, small-c socially conservative, economically protectionist, older non-graduates. ------------
It is about identity, but the most important question is English versus British.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @tottenhamWC said: > > Someone earlier came up with an interesting - and quite creative - future Brexit referendum scenario. > > > > Remain vs. No Deal are the two options, with a necessary 55 per cent threshold to be validated (plus, in addition, an equivalent or greater level of support is required, on top, to exceed those that voted "Leave" last time - >17.4 million). > > > > Otherwise, if both options fall short of 55 per cent (or less than 17.4 million votes); we follow through with Theresa May's already negotiated (and deliverable) deal as the compromise "default" option. > > > > Also, as a bonus, it sets a nice precedent for any future Scottish independence referendum in terms of threshold required to change the result from last time..... > > > > Am sure there are much worse options in terms of getting the Tories out of the mess > > That's a quite brilliant suggestion - in Single Stochastic Vote territory.
Interesting question is how those who want May's deal vote? If the write in "May's Deal", would it count towards total votes cast ie make the 55% more difficult to achieve for either side?
> @AndyJS said: > > @nico67 said: > > If the Brexit Party agree a pact with the Tories at the next election the other parties need to do the same. > > > > In places where Lib Dems are second to the Tories , Labour and the Greens need to stand aside . > > > > Lib Dems need to reciprocate equally . I know many are uncomfortable with this but it would be a national emergency ! > > > > If they don’t they could allow in the most right wing government in the UK supported by the hate monger Farage. > > Another quasi-referendum, following on from the Euro elections?
Well the Brexit Party are making it that so other parties have to react.
> @AndyJS said: > > @nico67 said: > > If the Brexit Party agree a pact with the Tories at the next election the other parties need to do the same. > > > > In places where Lib Dems are second to the Tories , Labour and the Greens need to stand aside . > > > > Lib Dems need to reciprocate equally . I know many are uncomfortable with this but it would be a national emergency ! > > > > If they don’t they could allow in the most right wing government in the UK supported by the hate monger Farage. > > Another quasi-referendum, following on from the Euro elections?
You can't stand aside for Labour Brexiteers though.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Tabman said: > > > > Is it constitutional, or is it identity? > > > > Between internationalist, small-l socially and economically liberal, youthful, graduates, and nationalist, small-c socially conservative, economically protectionist, older non-graduates. > ------------ > > It is about identity, but the most important question is English versus British.
No, Wales also voted Leave and most English Leave voters want to keep the UK together just on a forced choice they prefer to be English with Brexit than British and in the EU
> @williamglenn said: > > @Tabman said: > > > > Is it constitutional, or is it identity? > > > > Between internationalist, small-l socially and economically liberal, youthful, graduates, and nationalist, small-c socially conservative, economically protectionist, older non-graduates. > ------------ > > It is about identity, but the most important question is English versus British.
Is that cause or effect, though? In that the latter group are more likely to identify as English than British?
> @HYUFD said: > > @StuartDickson said: > > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > > What is left of SLAB is collapsing right now. > > > Left winger Neil Findlay resigns from shadow cabinet and announces he will stand down in 2021. > > > Daniel Johnson (moderate) is considering quitting shadow cabinet too. > > > Labour MSPs group meeting takes place this afternoon > > > > They are going to have to reassess their opposition to independence. Even a neutral position would help them. Right now they’re simply aping the Tories, and you just can’t out-Tory the Tories. > > You also can't out-Nat the SNP
They don't need to. Neutrality is enough to bring a bunch of SNP voters back into the "fold". Most SNP voters are former Labour voters anyway. But you can't fault Labour for sticking to its principles. If it doesn't believe in independence, better to die on the hill of being a centre left unionist party than to pretend to be something they aren't. Scotland will get by fine without Labour.
> @HYUFD said: > > @StuartDickson said: > > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > > What is left of SLAB is collapsing right now. > > > Left winger Neil Findlay resigns from shadow cabinet and announces he will stand down in 2021. > > > Daniel Johnson (moderate) is considering quitting shadow cabinet too. > > > Labour MSPs group meeting takes place this afternoon > > > > They are going to have to reassess their opposition to independence. Even a neutral position would help them. Right now they’re simply aping the Tories, and you just can’t out-Tory the Tories. > > You also can't out-Nat the SNP
Labour’s problem (and the Tories’) in a nutshell; there is no-one left to out.
> > When you say "looking forward", presumably you mean it's dawned on you that it's inevitable, and that you'll lose.
>
> Westminster will not agree to such a Referendum for quite some years. Sturgeon doubtless knows that with her statement yesterday simply being a means to make it a live issue at the 2021 Holyrood elections.
It's not inevitable and post Brexit it will be even harder for the Nats to win.
Thats why frit Nicla isn't keen on having one anytime soon.
LOL, Tories trying to say anyone is frit, wibble wobble wibble wobble go the jellies. 9% and dropping.
Hunt falling back sharply there after his latest comments ruling out No Deal even in October if a Deal cannot be passed by then and the alternative is further extension.
> @Pulpstar said: > @TOPPING That is what I thought but noone seems to have a scooby clue and the message I've received directly from betfair contradicts that assesment - I'm redded out on June & July with wins past August.
June is odds-against on Betfair if you are feeling lucky (and Betfair has more than one market open: one in months; one in quarters; a third in years but 2019 has probably won there!). The trouble is leader of the Conservative Party is not a real job so it is not like they can ask HR when they stopped paying her, and apart from a handful of punters and whoever edits the dates in office on Wikipedia, no-one will care.
TM ceases to be leader on the 7th June. That is already confirmed and the 1922 committee presumably will run the party till late July when the new PM takes over in a straight handover of office
Betfair sent me this :
Hi Pulpstar
I am contacting you regarding the bet id - 1:165483383489. We are not settling any Theresa May markets until she officially ceases as leader of the conservative party. While she will step down to make way for a leadership contest on the 7th June, she will not officially leave until a new leader of the conservative party is chosen, hence why the market has not traded out
Apologies for the inconvenience caused.
Following the Gambling Act 2005, you can sue for recovery of unpaid losses in the courts. I don't know if the Small Claims Court or similar still exists, but lawyer up, send them a legal letter and if they do not respond meaningfully, actually sue them. This is what the courts are for.
Of course they will then decline to book with you ever again. So bear that in mind. But as I have found out on times innumerable, it is pointless debating with people who deliberately refuse to understand.
> @HYUFD said: > > @StuartDickson said: > > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > > What is left of SLAB is collapsing right now. > > > Left winger Neil Findlay resigns from shadow cabinet and announces he will stand down in 2021. > > > Daniel Johnson (moderate) is considering quitting shadow cabinet too. > > > Labour MSPs group meeting takes place this afternoon > > > > They are going to have to reassess their opposition to independence. Even a neutral position would help them. Right now they’re simply aping the Tories, and you just can’t out-Tory the Tories. > > You also can't out-Nat the SNP
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > @tottenhamWC said: > > > Someone earlier came up with an interesting - and quite creative - future Brexit referendum scenario. > > > > > > Remain vs. No Deal are the two options, with a necessary 55 per cent threshold to be validated (plus, in addition, an equivalent or greater level of support is required, on top, to exceed those that voted "Leave" last time - >17.4 million). > > > > > > Otherwise, if both options fall short of 55 per cent (or less than 17.4 million votes); we follow through with Theresa May's already negotiated (and deliverable) deal as the compromise "default" option. > > > > > > Also, as a bonus, it sets a nice precedent for any future Scottish independence referendum in terms of threshold required to change the result from last time..... > > > > > > Am sure there are much worse options in terms of getting the Tories out of the mess > > > > That's a quite brilliant suggestion - in Single Stochastic Vote territory. > > Interesting question is how those who want May's deal vote? If the write in "May's Deal", would it count towards total votes cast ie make the 55% more difficult to achieve for either side?
Good point. Perhaps make it a three-option vote so that people can vote for the deal and make both extremes harder to achieve.
Hunt falling back sharply there after his latest comments ruling out No Deal even in October if a Deal cannot be passed by then and the alternative is further extension.
Now looks like Gove v Raab or Johnson
No, it's a different list from the ConHome one, which still has Hunt leading with 28. I believe the only change in Guido's list is one switcher from Raab to Boris (Sheryll Murray).
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @rural_voter said: > > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > A Brexit/Tory pact could do very well if the Tories run as the Tories in their natural constituencies and The Brexit Party goes down on the ballot in Hartlepool etc. > > > > Not sure I can see Farage's ego agreeing to that though. > > > Will Arron Banks and his backers approve though? > > ______________________ > > > > I can almost see it happening. It's best called using FPTP to fiddle the result. > > > > Lord Ashcroft's poll gave four parties Lab/Con/LD/B****t all on ~18-22%. Under FPTP, that gives maybe 275 Lab seats, due to FPTP being overgenerous to Lab on tiny percentages. But little chance of a Lab majority. It would need LDs, SNP or both. > > > > Even so, an effectively SDP government is far too left-wing for Banks et al. So Con and B****t hope to create a fake party on a combined 35-40% of the vote to get 350 seats a.k.a. the usual elected dictatorship. > > > > Thatcher Emerges from the Grave, as Bogdanor put it. Aaargh. > > Scrap the NHS coalition getting 40%? Cant see it myself.
I suspect quite a lot of people want to see the NHS shaken up. It has almost mythical status, is insanely bureaucratic, is almost impossible to sell to (if you are a start-up medical company) and although attacking it is seen as political suicide, the explosion in obesity and diabetes is going to put increasing pressure on the service in years to come (and don't even think about resources needed for mental health, or antibiotic resistance). The amount of money siphoned off the NHS by big pharma is nothing short of a disgrace.
What we need is shifting resources to education, preventative medicine and quality-at-end-of-life planning, but that's a deep, long-term fix that will require a lot of heavy lifting and cross-party support. What we'll get with No Deal and The Brexit Party is a US insurance system, and an even greater driver of social division.
> @rural_voter said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > Bercows decision further increases the likelihood of an October general election and a Brexit Party/Con pact IMO. > > > > > > > > And the end of brexit > > > > > > Brexit will only happen with a new parliament - this parliament will never allow it. > > > > > > So it's do or die in October - The people WILL have a vote but it will be in a general election not a second referendum, IMO. > > > > And in that election Brexit will die > ________ > > I hope you're right. I've been on the verge of reinstating my French citizenship for 3 years, so that I can continue to be an EU citizen, but I'm still waiting for Brexshit to resolve itself. I feel a lot more loyal to the UK than France and don't want my country to do this. > > ~60-70% of the UK population are stuffed in regard to FOM. They don't have an Irish or German grandparent, a French father or another convenient relative.
> @Tabman said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @Tabman said: > > > > > > Is it constitutional, or is it identity? > > > > > > Between internationalist, small-l socially and economically liberal, youthful, graduates, and nationalist, small-c socially conservative, economically protectionist, older non-graduates. > > ------------ > > > > It is about identity, but the most important question is English versus British. > > Is that cause or effect, though? In that the latter group are more likely to identify as English than British? ------------
I think it's cause, not effect. England is currently denied a political identity, and voting to leave the EU is an attempt to reassert it, even though the EU isn't the cause of the problem.
Before anyone mentions Wales, obviously there are many other factors at play but this is the dominant one in my view.
> Glad to see that Andrew Neil is involved - best in the business.
Not really. He's a sledgehammer. Useful if you want to smash something, but there is a whole art of political interviewing that relies on finessing answers out of subjects.
Plus, he's politically compromised, and a lot of people without his right-wing beliefs are turned off by him. That harms his ability to find the right audience. They see him as a participant in politics, not a fair shiner of lights. Whether or not that's a _fair_ judgement, it's a _justified_ one. He is highly partisan on Twitter.
According to the "Bad Boys of Brexit", Neil pointed Banks in the direction of some help.
> @Tabman said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > I suppose one has to accept we're in a period of realignment like the 1920's. > > The division between Labour and Conservatives, based on economics, no > > longer means much to people. We're reverting to an earlier pattern, whereby > > the political divide was over constitutional issues. > > Is it constitutional, or is it identity? > > Between internationalist, small-l socially and economically liberal, youthful, graduates, and nationalist, small-c socially conservative, economically protectionist, older non-graduates.
Constitiutional issues are likely intertwined with identity.
> @Pulpstar said: > ~60-70% of the UK population are stuffed in regard to FOM. They don't have an Irish or German grandparent, a French father or another convenient relative. > > ~ 30% of the UK has an EU grandparent or is from the EU ? > > I need to go back to a Great Great grandparent before I get to any EU lineage ^^; ______________
I believe ~20% have an Irish connection via a parent or grandparent and a bit over 10% have a connection with the continent. The German one can also be via a grandparent which is fairly generous.
I think the French one has to be via a parent. So I'm OK and so is Dominic Grieve although his French is far more fluent than mine ...
If anyone wants to establish the right to an Irish passport, living in N. Ireland for a time might do it. Ireland has a terrorial claim on the whole island of Ireland, so N. Ireland residents can probably secure an Irish passport. Not sure if this ends if we Brexit.
> @HYUFD said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Latest numbers: > > > > Gove 20 > > Raab 20 > > Johnson 19 > > Hunt 13 > > Javid 7 > > Hancock 7 > > McVey 5 > > Harper 4 > > Leadsom 2 > > Stewart 2 > > Malthouse 2 > > Baker 1 > > Cleverly 1 > > > > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0 > > Hunt falling back sharply there after his latest comments ruling out No Deal even in October if a Deal cannot be passed by then and the alternative is further extension. > > Now looks like Gove v Raab or Johnson
I suspect Gove v Johnson would be a feast best eaten cold.....
> @HYUFD said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Latest numbers: > > > > Gove 20 > > Raab 20 > > Johnson 19 > > Hunt 13 > > Javid 7 > > Hancock 7 > > McVey 5 > > Harper 4 > > Leadsom 2 > > Stewart 2 > > Malthouse 2 > > Baker 1 > > Cleverly 1 > > > > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0 > > Hunt falling back sharply there after his latest comments ruling out No Deal even in October if a Deal cannot be passed by then and the alternative is further extension. > > Now looks like Gove v Raab or Johnson
Mr. 009, nope, they're just stating what the format will be without, apparently, any negotiation or even notice. I think that high-handed arrogance is pretty wretched.
It's also almost certainly unnecessary. The 2005 contest had the Davis/Cameron QT special and it's hard to imagine, if things go that far again (and I think they will), that similar things wouldn't occur.
The media trying to impose their will in this way is not something which I like one bit.
Leonard is clueless , how on earth can the leadership in Scotland have not supported a second vote . They just flushed a pile of Labour votes down the toilet . He might now be backtracking but damage done .
> > Bercows decision further increases the likelihood of an October general election and a Brexit Party/Con pact IMO.
>
> And the end of brexit
Brexit will only happen with a new parliament - this parliament will never allow it.
So it's do or die in October - The people WILL have a vote but it will be in a general election not a second referendum, IMO.
I think that more likely now. It makes less sense than a referendum, but a referendum has all sorts of tricky things like determining what options to include, whether to make it binding etc etc, while a GE can leave things to a degree more open, which appeals to both sides, and it is far easier to happen as a consequence of breakdown and chaos, rather than a referendum which needs something positively agreed.
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > @tottenhamWC said: > > > Someone earlier came up with an interesting - and quite creative - future Brexit referendum scenario. > > > > > > Remain vs. No Deal are the two options, with a necessary 55 per cent threshold to be validated (plus, in addition, an equivalent or greater level of support is required, on top, to exceed those that voted "Leave" last time - >17.4 million). > > > > > > Otherwise, if both options fall short of 55 per cent (or less than 17.4 million votes); we follow through with Theresa May's already negotiated (and deliverable) deal as the compromise "default" option. > > > > > > Also, as a bonus, it sets a nice precedent for any future Scottish independence referendum in terms of threshold required to change the result from last time..... > > > > > > Am sure there are much worse options in terms of getting the Tories out of the mess > > > > That's a quite brilliant suggestion - in Single Stochastic Vote territory. > > Interesting question is how those who want May's deal vote? If the write in "May's Deal", would it count towards total votes cast ie make the 55% more difficult to achieve for either side?
Spoiled ballot, doesn't count. Those "dealers" would be simultaneously disenfranchised and very likely to get their way. The idea is interesting at first glance, but it's utterly bonkers.
> Glad to see that Andrew Neil is involved - best in the business.
Not really. He's a sledgehammer. Useful if you want to smash something, but there is a whole art of political interviewing that relies on finessing answers out of subjects.
Plus, he's politically compromised, and a lot of people without his right-wing beliefs are turned off by him. That harms his ability to find the right audience. They see him as a participant in politics, not a fair shiner of lights. Whether or not that's a _fair_ judgement, it's a _justified_ one. He is highly partisan on Twitter.
According to the "Bad Boys of Brexit", Neil pointed Banks in the direction of some help.
He seems to be running a much more public campaign than any other candidate. Presumably the rest are busy talking to other MPs directly, one at a time.
My MP is currently on a tour of the Middle East it would seem, as part of his new ministerial role - probably the smartest thing to do while the bitterness of a Tory leadership election begins, getting the hell out of here.
He seems to be running a much more public campaign than any other candidate. Presumably the rest are busy talking to other MPs directly, one at a time.
I can't think of anything worse than a citizens' assembly.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > It isn't the lesser disaster for the party - no Brexit is the end. Canada style. Forever. Dolts like Hammond may not get that but there is not way out of it. > > You are probably right that No Brexit is the end for the party. You are completely wrong in thinking Hammond doesn't understand that, or that he is a dolt. The missing bit in your thinking is not appreciating that crashing out in no deal, with the attendant job losses, bankruptcies and disruption to daily life, is even worse. It will never be forgotten, especially by the younger people who will be the ones most badly hit.
Yes. There is already the irony that Brexit has pretty much killed any thought of leaving the EU amongst the other 27 members. For us, no Brexit would leave anti-Europeanism festering for a generation with its supporters forever awaiting the king across the water, whereas a precipitous Brexit could well consume its own supporters for good, but with the risk of doing untold damage to the rest of us meantime.
The fact that the Tory party doesn’t come out well from any likely future scenario is both karma and the only good thing to come from this whole mess.
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Mr. 009, nope, they're just stating what the format will be without, apparently, any negotiation or even notice. I think that high-handed arrogance is pretty wretched. > > It's also almost certainly unnecessary. The 2005 contest had the Davis/Cameron QT special and it's hard to imagine, if things go that far again (and I think they will), that similar things wouldn't occur. > > The media trying to impose their will in this way is not something which I like one bit.
Well, they're welcome not to attend. Newspapers write articles about people whether or not they consent. Not sure I see a huge difference. Either way, I won't be watching. I don't have a license fee, ironically because I think the BBC is high-handed, arrogant and utterly riven with political bias and malice. So you're almost preaching to the choir. But I'm not with you on this particular point.
> I think it's cause, not effect. England is currently denied a political identity, and voting to leave the EU is an attempt to reassert it, even though the EU isn't the cause of the problem. > > Before anyone mentions Wales, obviously there are many other factors at play but this is the dominant one in my view.
Plenty of remainers identify as English (and British).
> @nico67 said: > > @malcolmg said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > @AramintaMoonbeamQC said: > > > > > > Emergency 2nd meeting of SLab MSPs this afternoon, apparently. > > > > > > > > > > Do> @Scott_P said: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1133385861381447682 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Don't tell Justin about labour collapsing across Scotland > > > > > > > > I won't mention them polling just 2.8% in my council area. > > > > Taxi for Leonard please > > Leonard is clueless , how on earth can the leadership in Scotland have not supported a second vote . They just flushed a pile of Labour votes down the toilet . He might now be backtracking but damage done .
SLab have been rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic for years. There is little to no space for them in Scottish politics, and catastrophic leadership and policy decisions over many years have led them to oblivion.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Tabman said: > > > > Is it constitutional, or is it identity? > > > > Between internationalist, small-l socially and economically liberal, youthful, graduates, and nationalist, small-c socially conservative, economically protectionist, older non-graduates. > ------------ > > It is about identity, but the most important question is English versus British.
*********************************************************************************************************** I'm really confused by the distinction between English, British and UKish. I'm sure foreigners are completely bewildered! I honestly don't know what my nationality is. I pause on forms when I'm asked. I search the drop down menu to see what is on top, because that is the answer they probably want. It is a farce.
Basically I feel I'm English because that distinguishes me from the distinct nationalities of Scottish and Welsh, but I'm certainly not a nationalist, small-c socially conservative, economically protectionist, older non-graduate!
I also feel strongly European with lots in common, certainly with Western Europe, less so with Eastern Europe.
Third in line for me is British. I feel a special affinity with my neighbours, the Scots and Welsh, so let's call it British. It has no other overtones for me than that. It's not a particularly useful word.
Fourth and almost undetectable is UKish. I don't feel that at all. I feel particularly close to the Irish, more so than the Scots or Welsh, but UKish is a mongrel. I would never ever describe myself as a Unionist, which I suppose is the alternative for UKish.
> Hunt falling back sharply there after his latest comments ruling out No Deal even in October if a Deal cannot be passed by then and the alternative is further extension.
>
> Now looks like Gove v Raab or Johnson
Conhome just now
Hunt 28
Johnson 24
Gove 23
Raab 20
Javid 12
Hunt has probably affected his chances (poorly) by flip flopping again, and no one really trusts Boris. Javid is competent but an empty vessel.
My thoughts are turning to Gove v. McVey or Gove v. Raab at present. It’s also possible Matt Hancock comes up the middle.
> @nico67 said: > > @malcolmg said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > @AramintaMoonbeamQC said: > > > > > > Emergency 2nd meeting of SLab MSPs this afternoon, apparently. > > > > > > > > > > Do> @Scott_P said: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1133385861381447682 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Don't tell Justin about labour collapsing across Scotland > > > > > > > > I won't mention them polling just 2.8% in my council area. > > > > Taxi for Leonard please > > Leonard is clueless , how on earth can the leadership in Scotland have not supported a second vote . They just flushed a pile of Labour votes down the toilet . He might now be backtracking but damage done .
I'm beginning to think the same might be true in England - Corbyn will no doubt be dragged kicking and screaming into unqualified support for a second referendum but he is not a convincing advocate and he will struggle to get voters back from the Lib Dems and Greens.
> @rural_voter said: > > If anyone wants to establish the right to an Irish passport, living in N. Ireland for a time might do it. Ireland has a terrorial claim on the whole island of Ireland, so N. Ireland residents can probably secure an Irish passport. Not sure if this ends if we Brexit.
No spousal rights unfortunately, so I'll be queuing whilst Mrs Tabman and the Tabmanettes waltz straight through.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > https://twitter.com/TheSimonGilbert/status/1133376474348740609 > > > > > > I trust he also will now face expulsion - indeed the party has no choice. > > > > They're going all "I'm Spartacus" over this. > > Labour should have drawn a distinction between admitting to voting for a different party and explicitly advocating that others do so. Maybe they want a purge anyway?
I think your last sentence may not be too wide of the mark. Get rid of as many as possible before the next leadership challenge whilst pushing any possible anti-semitic expulsions into the long grass. I resigned a while ago now and I doubt there are enough non-cult members left to elect anyone but Corbyn or a placeman.
Out of interest does anyone know if the membership rules have changed, is it still possible to join for£3 and get a vote? Having milked that procedure for all it was worth themselves the cult will have closed down that avenue I suspect.
Rory Stewart's aim isn't to win over MPs, it's to make enough of an impact with the public to make himself valuable to whoever does become the next leader.
If he does demonstrate he's able to actually go out and connect with voters, I would argue his skills are in short supply...
> @RobD said: > > @isam said: > > If either make the final two, Priti or Baker could be the Tory Corbyn > > Good God, Baker?
They want someone principled (regardless of whether others think those principles are good or not), who has not wavered (like Boris), and will definitely back no deal. He makes sense.
> > Don't tell Justin about labour collapsing across Scotland
>
>
>
> I won't mention them polling just 2.8% in my council area.
>
> Taxi for Leonard please
Leonard is clueless , how on earth can the leadership in Scotland have not supported a second vote . They just flushed a pile of Labour votes down the toilet . He might now be backtracking but damage done .
You always think that they can be as stupid as they seem and they have some great plan behind it all , but every time they are just as stupid as they seem to be.
I think banning Campbell is a bit of a no lose situation, especially if he kicks up a stink about it, and I suspected it would come swiftly when the story of him not supporting Labour became public. It's the sort of break from the Blairite past that Corbyn's supporters like. It's what I think is called a 'wedge' issue. A lot of Corbyn's supporters love the EU, but I doubt they love Alistair Campbell. So this puts Corbyn on the right side of the argument.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > I think banning Campbell is a bit of a no lose situation, especially if he kicks up a stink about it, and I suspected it would come swiftly when the story of him not supporting Labour became public. It's the sort of break from the Blairite past that Corbyn's supporters like. It's what I think is called a 'wedge' issue. A lot of Corbyn's supporters love the EU, but I doubt they love Alistair Campbell. So this puts Corbyn on the right side of the argument. --------------
Wedge issues are supposed to be used to divide your opponents, not your own side.
> @Barnesian said: > I'm really confused by the distinction between English, British and UKish. I'm sure foreigners are completely bewildered! I honestly don't know what my nationality is. I pause on forms when I'm asked. I search the drop down menu to see what is on top, because that is the answer they probably want. It is a farce. > > Basically I feel I'm English because that distinguishes me from the distinct nationalities of Scottish and Welsh, but I'm certainly not a nationalist, small-c socially conservative, economically protectionist, older non-graduate! > > I also feel strongly European with lots in common, certainly with Western Europe, less so with Eastern Europe. > > Third in line for me is British. I feel a special affinity with my neighbours, the Scots and Welsh, so let's call it British. It has no other overtones for me than that. It's not a particularly useful word. > > Fourth and almost undetectable is UKish. I don't feel that at all. I feel particularly close to the Irish, more so than the Scots or Welsh, but UKish is a mongrel. I would never ever describe myself as a Unionist, which I suppose is the alternative for UKish.
What about the sporting test (much beloved of dear Norm?)
I was born in Wales; I support England in all major supports and GB at the Olympics (and the Lions). Europe in the Ryder Cup.
It is yet another rubbish question, as written it is asking whether to waive the approx 1k fees, not if citizenship should be automatically granted.
I would imagine most respondents would think it is asking about whether to grant citizenship to them, presumably that was also the intent of the question.
> Hunt falling back sharply there after his latest comments ruling out No Deal even in October if a Deal cannot be passed by then and the alternative is further extension.
>
> Now looks like Gove v Raab or Johnson
Conhome just now
Hunt 28
Johnson 24
Gove 23
Raab 20
Javid 12
Hunt has probably affected his chances (poorly) by flip flopping again, and no one really trusts Boris. Javid is competent but an empty vessel.
My thoughts are turning to Gove v. McVey or Gove v. Raab at present. It’s also possible Matt Hancock comes up the middle.
To be very blunt, there's not a huge groundswell of support in the Parliamentary party to put Philip Davies in to Number 10.
Harsh but fair on Esther but that's the way of the world.
> I think banning Campbell is a bit of a no lose situation, especially if he kicks up a stink about it, and I suspected it would come swiftly when the story of him not supporting Labour became public. It's the sort of break from the Blairite past that Corbyn's supporters like. It's what I think is called a 'wedge' issue. A lot of Corbyn's supporters love the EU, but I doubt they love Alistair Campbell. So this puts Corbyn on the right side of the argument.
Wedge issues are supposed to be used to divide your opponents, not your own side.
> @Barnesian said: > > @RobD said: > > > @isam said: > > > If either make the final two, Priti or Baker could be the Tory Corbyn > > > > Good God, Baker? > > Leadsom is coming up fast on the outside, in fourth place, closing in on Raab and Gove.
> @HYUFD said: > > @StuartDickson said: > > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > > What is left of SLAB is collapsing right now. > > > Left winger Neil Findlay resigns from shadow cabinet and announces he will stand down in 2021. > > > Daniel Johnson (moderate) is considering quitting shadow cabinet too. > > > Labour MSPs group meeting takes place this afternoon > > > > They are going to have to reassess their opposition to independence. Even a neutral position would help them. Right now they’re simply aping the Tories, and you just can’t out-Tory the Tories. > > You also can't out-Nat the SNP
As I've no doubt tediously pointed out before, they should have been out-federalising/devo-maxing the LDs, not a hugely difficult task since the LD devotion to federalism is always more honoured in the breach than the observance. Instead they lurched between Union lite and more Yoon than the Tories, occasionally getting Brown to lumber out with his constitutional performing bear act. Too late now.
> @isam said: > If either make the final two, Priti or Baker could be the Tory Corbyn
Assuming Bakers out because you can't have a backbencher becoming PM and Priti won't have any support Boris is the most "pure" followed by Raab and Mcvey.
Comments
Brexit voters who returned ERG headbangers year after year will now not vote for them?
A Brexit candidate will split the vote and let someone else through the middle?
> It isn't the lesser disaster for the party - no Brexit is the end. Canada style. Forever. Dolts like Hammond may not get that but there is not way out of it.
>
> You are probably right that No Brexit is the end for the party. You are completely wrong in thinking Hammond doesn't understand that, or that he is a dolt. The missing bit in your thinking is not appreciating that crashing out in no deal, with the attendant job losses, bankruptcies and disruption to daily life, is even worse. It will never be forgotten, especially by the younger people who will be the ones most badly hit.
That Hammond takes this as read - that he can only react , not be proactive to mitigate shows how limited his thinking is.
> It is simultaneously amusing, heartbreaking, and terrifying to watch Brexit destroy the two party system (just another victim of Brexit’s insatiable maw).
>
> No one seems to know how to stop the nuclear clock countdown, on either side of the House.
>
> As a hardcore Remainer I eventually reconciled myself to May’s final deal, only to see it demolished on impact by so-called Labour Brexiters like Lisa Nandy (among others). Perhaps Nandy needs to explain *that* to her constituents.
I suppose one has to accept we're in a period of realignment like the 1920's. The division between Labour and Conservatives, based on economics, no longer means much to people. We're reverting to an earlier pattern, whereby the political divide was over constitutional issues.
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > It isn't the lesser disaster for the party - no Brexit is the end. Canada style. Forever. Dolts like Hammond may not get that but there is not way out of it.
> >
> > You are probably right that No Brexit is the end for the party. You are completely wrong in thinking Hammond doesn't understand that, or that he is a dolt. The missing bit in your thinking is not appreciating that crashing out in no deal, with the attendant job losses, bankruptcies and disruption to daily life, is even worse. It will never be forgotten, especially by the younger people who will be the ones most badly hit.
>
> That Hammond takes this as read - that he can only react , not be proactive to mitigate shows how limited his thinking is.
>
>
How do you mitigate for unknown unknowns when the known issues and known unknowns will more than occupy all available time....
IIRC Aaron Bastani is a bastard, which is a big no no in the world of Justin.
> > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > @Benpointer said:
> > > > @Stark_Dawning said:
> > > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1133377952006180864
> > > >
> > > > Good strategy: get Farage to really own No Deal. When the maelstrom hits, it will at least give us some satisfaction to see him try to wriggle out of it.
> > >
> > > --------
> > >
> > > It will be: 'the political establishment implemented No Deal badly, if I had done it it would have been a blazing success'.
> >
> > Yep, and there are 30% of the electorate who are so mind numbingly stupid that they will believe the lying little toad
>
> Maybe. But don't forget that only 11% of the electorate were stupid enough to vote for him last Thursday.
and that of that 11% a lot also knew it was a short term protect vote...
Gove 20
Raab 20
Johnson 19
Hunt 13
Javid 7
Hancock 7
McVey 5
Harper 4
Leadsom 2
Stewart 2
Malthouse 2
Baker 1
Cleverly 1
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0
> Tom Watson has gone from looking svelte to looking positively gaunt.
He seems to be getting quite a bit of exercise now that he has his diabetes in remission by losing 7 stone. Jess Phillips has lost a couple of stone too.
Boris however seems to have found them!
> https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1133404652890988545
They really didn't like it when May decided not to do the GE ones.
> > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > A Brexit/Tory pact could do very well if the Tories run as the Tories in their natural constituencies and The Brexit Party goes down on the ballot in Hartlepool etc.
> > > Not sure I can see Farage's ego agreeing to that though.
> > Will Arron Banks and his backers approve though?
> ______________________
>
> I can almost see it happening. It's best called using FPTP to fiddle the result.
>
> Lord Ashcroft's poll gave four parties Lab/Con/LD/B****t all on ~18-22%. Under FPTP, that gives maybe 275 Lab seats, due to FPTP being overgenerous to Lab on tiny percentages. But little chance of a Lab majority. It would need LDs, SNP or both.
>
> Even so, an effectively SDP government is far too left-wing for Banks et al. So Con and B****t hope to create a fake party on a combined 35-40% of the vote to get 350 seats a.k.a. the usual elected dictatorship.
>
> Thatcher Emerges from the Grave, as Bogdanor put it. Aaargh.
Scrap the NHS coalition getting 40%? Cant see it myself.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > Bercows decision further increases the likelihood of an October general election and a Brexit Party/Con pact IMO.
> > >
> > > And the end of brexit
> >
> > Brexit will only happen with a new parliament - this parliament will never allow it.
> >
> > So it's do or die in October - The people WILL have a vote but it will be in a general election not a second referendum, IMO.
>
> And in that election Brexit will die
________
I hope you're right. I've been on the verge of reinstating my French citizenship for 3 years, so that I can continue to be an EU citizen, but I'm still waiting for Brexshit to resolve itself. I feel a lot more loyal to the UK than France and don't want my country to do this.
~60-70% of the UK population are stuffed in regard to FOM. They don't have an Irish or German grandparent, a French father or another convenient relative.
> Someone earlier came up with an interesting - and quite creative - future Brexit referendum scenario.
>
> Remain vs. No Deal are the two options, with a necessary 55 per cent threshold to be validated (plus, in addition, an equivalent or greater level of support is required, on top, to exceed those that voted "Leave" last time - >17.4 million).
>
> Otherwise, if both options fall short of 55 per cent (or less than 17.4 million votes); we follow through with Theresa May's already negotiated (and deliverable) deal as the compromise "default" option.
>
> Also, as a bonus, it sets a nice precedent for any future Scottish independence referendum in terms of threshold required to change the result from last time.....
>
> Am sure there are much worse options in terms of getting the Tories out of the mess
That's a quite brilliant suggestion - in Single Stochastic Vote territory.
> Latest numbers:
>
> Gove 20
> Raab 20
> Johnson 19
> Hunt 13
> Javid 7
> Hancock 7
> McVey 5
> Harper 4
> Leadsom 2
> Stewart 2
> Malthouse 2
> Baker 1
> Cleverly 1
>
> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0
Leadsom 2? Personally, I despise her. But I'll never vote Tory anyway. Talking to a few people the other day, I picked up on a fair bit of positivity for her. Are the Tories missing a trick here?
I need to go back to a Great Great grandparent before I get to any EU lineage ^^;
> I suppose one has to accept we're in a period of realignment like the 1920's.
> The division between Labour and Conservatives, based on economics, no
> longer means much to people. We're reverting to an earlier pattern, whereby
> the political divide was over constitutional issues.
Is it constitutional, or is it identity?
Between internationalist, small-l socially and economically liberal, youthful, graduates, and nationalist, small-c socially conservative, economically protectionist, older non-graduates.
However I do need to point out that seeing we are going to appoint the fifth[1] Prime Minister in fifty years by bypassing the electorate entirely, two of whom never won a General Election
, it may seem invidious to twit the Europeans on this matter.
[1] Callaghan, Major, Brown, May, Gove?
In places where Lib Dems are second to the Tories , Labour and the Greens need to stand aside .
Lib Dems need to reciprocate equally . I know many are uncomfortable with this but it would be a national emergency !
If they don’t they could allow in the most right wing government in the UK supported by the hate monger Farage.
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > What is left of SLAB is collapsing right now.
> > Left winger Neil Findlay resigns from shadow cabinet and announces he will stand down in 2021.
> > Daniel Johnson (moderate) is considering quitting shadow cabinet too.
> > Labour MSPs group meeting takes place this afternoon
>
> They are going to have to reassess their opposition to independence. Even a neutral position would help them. Right now they’re simply aping the Tories, and you just can’t out-Tory the Tories.
You also can't out-Nat the SNP
> https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1133404652890988545
Good. They should be under maximum scrutiny.
> If the Brexit Party agree a pact with the Tories at the next election the other parties need to do the same.
>
> In places where Lib Dems are second to the Tories , Labour and the Greens need to stand aside .
>
> Lib Dems need to reciprocate equally . I know many are uncomfortable with this but it would be a national emergency !
>
> If they don’t they could allow in the most right wing government in the UK supported by the hate monger Farage.
Another quasi-referendum, following on from the Euro elections?
>
> Is it constitutional, or is it identity?
>
> Between internationalist, small-l socially and economically liberal, youthful, graduates, and nationalist, small-c socially conservative, economically protectionist, older non-graduates.
------------
It is about identity, but the most important question is English versus British.
> > @tottenhamWC said:
> > Someone earlier came up with an interesting - and quite creative - future Brexit referendum scenario.
> >
> > Remain vs. No Deal are the two options, with a necessary 55 per cent threshold to be validated (plus, in addition, an equivalent or greater level of support is required, on top, to exceed those that voted "Leave" last time - >17.4 million).
> >
> > Otherwise, if both options fall short of 55 per cent (or less than 17.4 million votes); we follow through with Theresa May's already negotiated (and deliverable) deal as the compromise "default" option.
> >
> > Also, as a bonus, it sets a nice precedent for any future Scottish independence referendum in terms of threshold required to change the result from last time.....
> >
> > Am sure there are much worse options in terms of getting the Tories out of the mess
>
> That's a quite brilliant suggestion - in Single Stochastic Vote territory.
Interesting question is how those who want May's deal vote? If the write in "May's Deal", would it count towards total votes cast ie make the 55% more difficult to achieve for either side?
> > @nico67 said:
> > If the Brexit Party agree a pact with the Tories at the next election the other parties need to do the same.
> >
> > In places where Lib Dems are second to the Tories , Labour and the Greens need to stand aside .
> >
> > Lib Dems need to reciprocate equally . I know many are uncomfortable with this but it would be a national emergency !
> >
> > If they don’t they could allow in the most right wing government in the UK supported by the hate monger Farage.
>
> Another quasi-referendum, following on from the Euro elections?
Well the Brexit Party are making it that so other parties have to react.
> > @nico67 said:
> > If the Brexit Party agree a pact with the Tories at the next election the other parties need to do the same.
> >
> > In places where Lib Dems are second to the Tories , Labour and the Greens need to stand aside .
> >
> > Lib Dems need to reciprocate equally . I know many are uncomfortable with this but it would be a national emergency !
> >
> > If they don’t they could allow in the most right wing government in the UK supported by the hate monger Farage.
>
> Another quasi-referendum, following on from the Euro elections?
You can't stand aside for Labour Brexiteers though.
> > @Tabman said:
> >
> > Is it constitutional, or is it identity?
> >
> > Between internationalist, small-l socially and economically liberal, youthful, graduates, and nationalist, small-c socially conservative, economically protectionist, older non-graduates.
> ------------
>
> It is about identity, but the most important question is English versus British.
No, Wales also voted Leave and most English Leave voters want to keep the UK together just on a forced choice they prefer to be English with Brexit than British and in the EU
> > @Tabman said:
> >
> > Is it constitutional, or is it identity?
> >
> > Between internationalist, small-l socially and economically liberal, youthful, graduates, and nationalist, small-c socially conservative, economically protectionist, older non-graduates.
> ------------
>
> It is about identity, but the most important question is English versus British.
Is that cause or effect, though? In that the latter group are more likely to identify as English than British?
> > @StuartDickson said:
> > > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > > What is left of SLAB is collapsing right now.
> > > Left winger Neil Findlay resigns from shadow cabinet and announces he will stand down in 2021.
> > > Daniel Johnson (moderate) is considering quitting shadow cabinet too.
> > > Labour MSPs group meeting takes place this afternoon
> >
> > They are going to have to reassess their opposition to independence. Even a neutral position would help them. Right now they’re simply aping the Tories, and you just can’t out-Tory the Tories.
>
> You also can't out-Nat the SNP
They don't need to. Neutrality is enough to bring a bunch of SNP voters back into the "fold". Most SNP voters are former Labour voters anyway.
But you can't fault Labour for sticking to its principles. If it doesn't believe in independence, better to die on the hill of being a centre left unionist party than to pretend to be something they aren't. Scotland will get by fine without Labour.
> > @StuartDickson said:
> > > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > > What is left of SLAB is collapsing right now.
> > > Left winger Neil Findlay resigns from shadow cabinet and announces he will stand down in 2021.
> > > Daniel Johnson (moderate) is considering quitting shadow cabinet too.
> > > Labour MSPs group meeting takes place this afternoon
> >
> > They are going to have to reassess their opposition to independence. Even a neutral position would help them. Right now they’re simply aping the Tories, and you just can’t out-Tory the Tories.
>
> You also can't out-Nat the SNP
Labour’s problem (and the Tories’) in a nutshell; there is no-one left to out.
> Latest numbers:
>
> Gove 20
> Raab 20
> Johnson 19
> Hunt 13
> Javid 7
> Hancock 7
> McVey 5
> Harper 4
> Leadsom 2
> Stewart 2
> Malthouse 2
> Baker 1
> Cleverly 1
>
> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0
Hunt falling back sharply there after his latest comments ruling out No Deal even in October if a Deal cannot be passed by then and the alternative is further extension.
Now looks like Gove v Raab or Johnson
> @TOPPING That is what I thought but noone seems to have a scooby clue and the message I've received directly from betfair contradicts that assesment - I'm redded out on June & July with wins past August.
June is odds-against on Betfair if you are feeling lucky (and Betfair has more than one market open: one in months; one in quarters; a third in years but 2019 has probably won there!). The trouble is leader of the Conservative Party is not a real job so it is not like they can ask HR when they stopped paying her, and apart from a handful of punters and whoever edits the dates in office on Wikipedia, no-one will care.
Of course they will then decline to book with you ever again. So bear that in mind. But as I have found out on times innumerable, it is pointless debating with people who deliberately refuse to understand.
> > @StuartDickson said:
> > > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > > What is left of SLAB is collapsing right now.
> > > Left winger Neil Findlay resigns from shadow cabinet and announces he will stand down in 2021.
> > > Daniel Johnson (moderate) is considering quitting shadow cabinet too.
> > > Labour MSPs group meeting takes place this afternoon
> >
> > They are going to have to reassess their opposition to independence. Even a neutral position would help them. Right now they’re simply aping the Tories, and you just can’t out-Tory the Tories.
>
> You also can't out-Nat the SNP
Good comment
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @tottenhamWC said:
> > > Someone earlier came up with an interesting - and quite creative - future Brexit referendum scenario.
> > >
> > > Remain vs. No Deal are the two options, with a necessary 55 per cent threshold to be validated (plus, in addition, an equivalent or greater level of support is required, on top, to exceed those that voted "Leave" last time - >17.4 million).
> > >
> > > Otherwise, if both options fall short of 55 per cent (or less than 17.4 million votes); we follow through with Theresa May's already negotiated (and deliverable) deal as the compromise "default" option.
> > >
> > > Also, as a bonus, it sets a nice precedent for any future Scottish independence referendum in terms of threshold required to change the result from last time.....
> > >
> > > Am sure there are much worse options in terms of getting the Tories out of the mess
> >
> > That's a quite brilliant suggestion - in Single Stochastic Vote territory.
>
> Interesting question is how those who want May's deal vote? If the write in "May's Deal", would it count towards total votes cast ie make the 55% more difficult to achieve for either side?
Good point. Perhaps make it a three-option vote so that people can vote for the deal and make both extremes harder to achieve.
> > @rural_voter said:
> > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > A Brexit/Tory pact could do very well if the Tories run as the Tories in their natural constituencies and The Brexit Party goes down on the ballot in Hartlepool etc.
> > > > Not sure I can see Farage's ego agreeing to that though.
> > > Will Arron Banks and his backers approve though?
> > ______________________
> >
> > I can almost see it happening. It's best called using FPTP to fiddle the result.
> >
> > Lord Ashcroft's poll gave four parties Lab/Con/LD/B****t all on ~18-22%. Under FPTP, that gives maybe 275 Lab seats, due to FPTP being overgenerous to Lab on tiny percentages. But little chance of a Lab majority. It would need LDs, SNP or both.
> >
> > Even so, an effectively SDP government is far too left-wing for Banks et al. So Con and B****t hope to create a fake party on a combined 35-40% of the vote to get 350 seats a.k.a. the usual elected dictatorship.
> >
> > Thatcher Emerges from the Grave, as Bogdanor put it. Aaargh.
>
> Scrap the NHS coalition getting 40%? Cant see it myself.
I suspect quite a lot of people want to see the NHS shaken up. It has almost mythical status, is insanely bureaucratic, is almost impossible to sell to (if you are a start-up medical company) and although attacking it is seen as political suicide, the explosion in obesity and diabetes is going to put increasing pressure on the service in years to come (and don't even think about resources needed for mental health, or antibiotic resistance). The amount of money siphoned off the NHS by big pharma is nothing short of a disgrace.
What we need is shifting resources to education, preventative medicine and quality-at-end-of-life planning, but that's a deep, long-term fix that will require a lot of heavy lifting and cross-party support. What we'll get with No Deal and The Brexit Party is a US insurance system, and an even greater driver of social division.
> I'm very against the idea of media organisations trying to dictate the terms of a political contest.
Dictate is a strong word. Nobody's forcing anyone to take part.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > > Bercows decision further increases the likelihood of an October general election and a Brexit Party/Con pact IMO.
> > > >
> > > > And the end of brexit
> > >
> > > Brexit will only happen with a new parliament - this parliament will never allow it.
> > >
> > > So it's do or die in October - The people WILL have a vote but it will be in a general election not a second referendum, IMO.
> >
> > And in that election Brexit will die
> ________
>
> I hope you're right. I've been on the verge of reinstating my French citizenship for 3 years, so that I can continue to be an EU citizen, but I'm still waiting for Brexshit to resolve itself. I feel a lot more loyal to the UK than France and don't want my country to do this.
>
> ~60-70% of the UK population are stuffed in regard to FOM. They don't have an Irish or German grandparent, a French father or another convenient relative.
Do 60 -70% give two hoots about FOM?
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @Tabman said:
> > >
> > > Is it constitutional, or is it identity?
> > >
> > > Between internationalist, small-l socially and economically liberal, youthful, graduates, and nationalist, small-c socially conservative, economically protectionist, older non-graduates.
> > ------------
> >
> > It is about identity, but the most important question is English versus British.
>
> Is that cause or effect, though? In that the latter group are more likely to identify as English than British?
------------
I think it's cause, not effect. England is currently denied a political identity, and voting to leave the EU is an attempt to reassert it, even though the EU isn't the cause of the problem.
Before anyone mentions Wales, obviously there are many other factors at play but this is the dominant one in my view.
> > @Sean_F said:
>
> > I suppose one has to accept we're in a period of realignment like the 1920's.
> > The division between Labour and Conservatives, based on economics, no
> > longer means much to people. We're reverting to an earlier pattern, whereby
> > the political divide was over constitutional issues.
>
> Is it constitutional, or is it identity?
>
> Between internationalist, small-l socially and economically liberal, youthful, graduates, and nationalist, small-c socially conservative, economically protectionist, older non-graduates.
Constitiutional issues are likely intertwined with identity.
> ~60-70% of the UK population are stuffed in regard to FOM. They don't have an Irish or German grandparent, a French father or another convenient relative.
>
> ~ 30% of the UK has an EU grandparent or is from the EU ?
>
> I need to go back to a Great Great grandparent before I get to any EU lineage ^^;
______________
I believe ~20% have an Irish connection via a parent or grandparent and a bit over 10% have a connection with the continent. The German one can also be via a grandparent which is fairly generous.
I think the French one has to be via a parent. So I'm OK and so is Dominic Grieve although his French is far more fluent than mine ...
If anyone wants to establish the right to an Irish passport, living in N. Ireland for a time might do it. Ireland has a terrorial claim on the whole island of Ireland, so N. Ireland residents can probably secure an Irish passport. Not sure if this ends if we Brexit.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Latest numbers:
> >
> > Gove 20
> > Raab 20
> > Johnson 19
> > Hunt 13
> > Javid 7
> > Hancock 7
> > McVey 5
> > Harper 4
> > Leadsom 2
> > Stewart 2
> > Malthouse 2
> > Baker 1
> > Cleverly 1
> >
> > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0
>
> Hunt falling back sharply there after his latest comments ruling out No Deal even in October if a Deal cannot be passed by then and the alternative is further extension.
>
> Now looks like Gove v Raab or Johnson
I suspect Gove v Johnson would be a feast best eaten cold.....
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Latest numbers:
> >
> > Gove 20
> > Raab 20
> > Johnson 19
> > Hunt 13
> > Javid 7
> > Hancock 7
> > McVey 5
> > Harper 4
> > Leadsom 2
> > Stewart 2
> > Malthouse 2
> > Baker 1
> > Cleverly 1
> >
> > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0
>
> Hunt falling back sharply there after his latest comments ruling out No Deal even in October if a Deal cannot be passed by then and the alternative is further extension.
>
> Now looks like Gove v Raab or Johnson
Conhome just now
Hunt 28
Johnson 24
Gove 23
Raab 20
Javid 12
It's also almost certainly unnecessary. The 2005 contest had the Davis/Cameron QT special and it's hard to imagine, if things go that far again (and I think they will), that similar things wouldn't occur.
The media trying to impose their will in this way is not something which I like one bit.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > > @AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
>
> > > Emergency 2nd meeting of SLab MSPs this afternoon, apparently.
>
> >
>
> > Do> @Scott_P said:
>
> > > https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1133385861381447682
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Don't tell Justin about labour collapsing across Scotland
>
>
>
> I won't mention them polling just 2.8% in my council area.
>
> Taxi for Leonard please
Leonard is clueless , how on earth can the leadership in Scotland have not supported a second vote . They just flushed a pile of Labour votes down the toilet . He might now be backtracking but damage done .
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @tottenhamWC said:
> > > Someone earlier came up with an interesting - and quite creative - future Brexit referendum scenario.
> > >
> > > Remain vs. No Deal are the two options, with a necessary 55 per cent threshold to be validated (plus, in addition, an equivalent or greater level of support is required, on top, to exceed those that voted "Leave" last time - >17.4 million).
> > >
> > > Otherwise, if both options fall short of 55 per cent (or less than 17.4 million votes); we follow through with Theresa May's already negotiated (and deliverable) deal as the compromise "default" option.
> > >
> > > Also, as a bonus, it sets a nice precedent for any future Scottish independence referendum in terms of threshold required to change the result from last time.....
> > >
> > > Am sure there are much worse options in terms of getting the Tories out of the mess
> >
> > That's a quite brilliant suggestion - in Single Stochastic Vote territory.
>
> Interesting question is how those who want May's deal vote? If the write in "May's Deal", would it count towards total votes cast ie make the 55% more difficult to achieve for either side?
Spoiled ballot, doesn't count. Those "dealers" would be simultaneously disenfranchised and very likely to get their way. The idea is interesting at first glance, but it's utterly bonkers.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1133404652890988545
>
> Good. They should be under maximum scrutiny.
Agree - these candidates need to be scrutinised to the absolute bone. Brutal honesty is the order of the day.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/28/rory-stewart-hits-out-at-tory-rivals-over-suicide-bomber-remark
He seems to be running a much more public campaign than any other candidate. Presumably the rest are busy talking to other MPs directly, one at a time.
Unless of course I am on it and chairman.
> It isn't the lesser disaster for the party - no Brexit is the end. Canada style. Forever. Dolts like Hammond may not get that but there is not way out of it.
>
> You are probably right that No Brexit is the end for the party. You are completely wrong in thinking Hammond doesn't understand that, or that he is a dolt. The missing bit in your thinking is not appreciating that crashing out in no deal, with the attendant job losses, bankruptcies and disruption to daily life, is even worse. It will never be forgotten, especially by the younger people who will be the ones most badly hit.
Yes. There is already the irony that Brexit has pretty much killed any thought of leaving the EU amongst the other 27 members. For us, no Brexit would leave anti-Europeanism festering for a generation with its supporters forever awaiting the king across the water, whereas a precipitous Brexit could well consume its own supporters for good, but with the risk of doing untold damage to the rest of us meantime.
The fact that the Tory party doesn’t come out well from any likely future scenario is both karma and the only good thing to come from this whole mess.
> Mr. 009, nope, they're just stating what the format will be without, apparently, any negotiation or even notice. I think that high-handed arrogance is pretty wretched.
>
> It's also almost certainly unnecessary. The 2005 contest had the Davis/Cameron QT special and it's hard to imagine, if things go that far again (and I think they will), that similar things wouldn't occur.
>
> The media trying to impose their will in this way is not something which I like one bit.
Well, they're welcome not to attend. Newspapers write articles about people whether or not they consent. Not sure I see a huge difference.
Either way, I won't be watching. I don't have a license fee, ironically because I think the BBC is high-handed, arrogant and utterly riven with political bias and malice. So you're almost preaching to the choir. But I'm not with you on this particular point.
> Rory Stewart trying his damndest to win my vote, now advocating for a citizen's assembly.
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/28/rory-stewart-hits-out-at-tory-rivals-over-suicide-bomber-remark
>
> He seems to be running a much more public campaign than any other candidate. Presumably the rest are busy talking to other MPs directly, one at a time.
Boris is appealing to the public to whinge at their MPs about the leadership rules to ensure he gets on the ballot.
> I think it's cause, not effect. England is currently denied a political identity, and voting to leave the EU is an attempt to reassert it, even though the EU isn't the cause of the problem.
>
> Before anyone mentions Wales, obviously there are many other factors at play but this is the dominant one in my view.
Plenty of remainers identify as English (and British).
> > @malcolmg said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> >
> > > > @AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
> >
> > > > Emergency 2nd meeting of SLab MSPs this afternoon, apparently.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Do> @Scott_P said:
> >
> > > > https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1133385861381447682
> >
> >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Don't tell Justin about labour collapsing across Scotland
> >
> >
> >
> > I won't mention them polling just 2.8% in my council area.
> >
> > Taxi for Leonard please
>
> Leonard is clueless , how on earth can the leadership in Scotland have not supported a second vote . They just flushed a pile of Labour votes down the toilet . He might now be backtracking but damage done .
SLab have been rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic for years. There is little to no space for them in Scottish politics, and catastrophic leadership and policy decisions over many years have led them to oblivion.
> > @Tabman said:
> >
> > Is it constitutional, or is it identity?
> >
> > Between internationalist, small-l socially and economically liberal, youthful, graduates, and nationalist, small-c socially conservative, economically protectionist, older non-graduates.
> ------------
>
> It is about identity, but the most important question is English versus British.
***********************************************************************************************************
I'm really confused by the distinction between English, British and UKish. I'm sure foreigners are completely bewildered! I honestly don't know what my nationality is. I pause on forms when I'm asked. I search the drop down menu to see what is on top, because that is the answer they probably want. It is a farce.
Basically I feel I'm English because that distinguishes me from the distinct nationalities of Scottish and Welsh, but I'm certainly not a nationalist, small-c socially conservative, economically protectionist, older non-graduate!
I also feel strongly European with lots in common, certainly with Western Europe, less so with Eastern Europe.
Third in line for me is British. I feel a special affinity with my neighbours, the Scots and Welsh, so let's call it British. It has no other overtones for me than that. It's not a particularly useful word.
Fourth and almost undetectable is UKish. I don't feel that at all. I feel particularly close to the Irish, more so than the Scots or Welsh, but UKish is a mongrel. I would never ever describe myself as a Unionist, which I suppose is the alternative for UKish.
> https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1133413386073649152
Surely that would be Operation Stuck?
> If either make the final two, Priti or Baker could be the Tory Corbyn
A smart graphic for no deal supporters - it looks pretty effective
> If either make the final two, Priti or Baker could be the Tory Corbyn
Boris is the Tory Corbyn.
My thoughts are turning to Gove v. McVey or Gove v. Raab at present. It’s also possible Matt Hancock comes up the middle.
> > @malcolmg said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> >
> > > > @AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
> >
> > > > Emergency 2nd meeting of SLab MSPs this afternoon, apparently.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Do> @Scott_P said:
> >
> > > > https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1133385861381447682
> >
> >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Don't tell Justin about labour collapsing across Scotland
> >
> >
> >
> > I won't mention them polling just 2.8% in my council area.
> >
> > Taxi for Leonard please
>
> Leonard is clueless , how on earth can the leadership in Scotland have not supported a second vote . They just flushed a pile of Labour votes down the toilet . He might now be backtracking but damage done .
I'm beginning to think the same might be true in England - Corbyn will no doubt be dragged kicking and screaming into unqualified support for
a second referendum but he is not a convincing advocate and he will struggle to get voters back from the Lib Dems and Greens.
> > @isam said:
> > If either make the final two, Priti or Baker could be the Tory Corbyn
>
> Boris is the Tory Corbyn.
He's far too mainstream.
> If either make the final two, Priti or Baker could be the Tory Corbyn
Good God, Baker?
>
> If anyone wants to establish the right to an Irish passport, living in N. Ireland for a time might do it. Ireland has a terrorial claim on the whole island of Ireland, so N. Ireland residents can probably secure an Irish passport. Not sure if this ends if we Brexit.
No spousal rights unfortunately, so I'll be queuing whilst Mrs Tabman and the Tabmanettes waltz straight through.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/TheSimonGilbert/status/1133376474348740609
> > >
> > > I trust he also will now face expulsion - indeed the party has no choice.
> >
> > They're going all "I'm Spartacus" over this.
>
> Labour should have drawn a distinction between admitting to voting for a different party and explicitly advocating that others do so. Maybe they want a purge anyway?
I think your last sentence may not be too wide of the mark. Get rid of as many as possible before the next leadership challenge whilst pushing any possible anti-semitic expulsions into the long grass. I resigned a while ago now and I doubt there are enough non-cult members left to elect anyone but Corbyn or a placeman.
Out of interest does anyone know if the membership rules have changed, is it still possible to join for£3 and get a vote? Having milked that procedure for all it was worth themselves the cult will have closed down that avenue I suspect.
> Rory Stewart trying his damndest to win my vote, now advocating for a citizen's assembly.
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/28/rory-stewart-hits-out-at-tory-rivals-over-suicide-bomber-remark
>
> He seems to be running a much more public campaign than any other candidate. Presumably the rest are busy talking to other MPs directly, one at a time.
Rory Stewart's aim isn't to win over MPs, it's to make enough of an impact with the public to make himself valuable to whoever does become the next leader.
If he does demonstrate he's able to actually go out and connect with voters, I would argue his skills are in short supply...
The best cartoonist of all time.
> > @isam said:
> > If either make the final two, Priti or Baker could be the Tory Corbyn
>
> Good God, Baker?
They want someone principled (regardless of whether others think those principles are good or not), who has not wavered (like Boris), and will definitely back no deal. He makes sense.
> > @isam said:
> > If either make the final two, Priti or Baker could be the Tory Corbyn
>
> Good God, Baker?
Leadsom is coming up fast on the outside, in fourth place, closing in on Raab and Gove.
I see this choice as picking the most competent PM to steer the ship, and salvage what can be salvaged from the wreck.
That turns my thoughts to the likes of Michael Gove and Matt Hancock.
Winning the next General Election is a luxury right now.
> I think banning Campbell is a bit of a no lose situation, especially if he kicks up a stink about it, and I suspected it would come swiftly when the story of him not supporting Labour became public. It's the sort of break from the Blairite past that Corbyn's supporters like. It's what I think is called a 'wedge' issue. A lot of Corbyn's supporters love the EU, but I doubt they love Alistair Campbell. So this puts Corbyn on the right side of the argument.
--------------
Wedge issues are supposed to be used to divide your opponents, not your own side.
> I'm really confused by the distinction between English, British and UKish. I'm sure foreigners are completely bewildered! I honestly don't know what my nationality is. I pause on forms when I'm asked. I search the drop down menu to see what is on top, because that is the answer they probably want. It is a farce.
>
> Basically I feel I'm English because that distinguishes me from the distinct nationalities of Scottish and Welsh, but I'm certainly not a nationalist, small-c socially conservative, economically protectionist, older non-graduate!
>
> I also feel strongly European with lots in common, certainly with Western Europe, less so with Eastern Europe.
>
> Third in line for me is British. I feel a special affinity with my neighbours, the Scots and Welsh, so let's call it British. It has no other overtones for me than that. It's not a particularly useful word.
>
> Fourth and almost undetectable is UKish. I don't feel that at all. I feel particularly close to the Irish, more so than the Scots or Welsh, but UKish is a mongrel. I would never ever describe myself as a Unionist, which I suppose is the alternative for UKish.
What about the sporting test (much beloved of dear Norm?)
I was born in Wales; I support England in all major supports and GB at the Olympics (and the Lions). Europe in the Ryder Cup.
Tabman Jr qualifies for all four home nations.
> https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1133408741532020736
It is yet another rubbish question, as written it is asking whether to waive the approx 1k fees, not if citizenship should be automatically granted.
I would imagine most respondents would think it is asking about whether to grant citizenship to them, presumably that was also the intent of the question.
Harsh but fair on Esther but that's the way of the world.
> > @RobD said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > If either make the final two, Priti or Baker could be the Tory Corbyn
> >
> > Good God, Baker?
>
> Leadsom is coming up fast on the outside, in fourth place, closing in on Raab and Gove.
As a mother, I approve.
> > @StuartDickson said:
> > > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > > What is left of SLAB is collapsing right now.
> > > Left winger Neil Findlay resigns from shadow cabinet and announces he will stand down in 2021.
> > > Daniel Johnson (moderate) is considering quitting shadow cabinet too.
> > > Labour MSPs group meeting takes place this afternoon
> >
> > They are going to have to reassess their opposition to independence. Even a neutral position would help them. Right now they’re simply aping the Tories, and you just can’t out-Tory the Tories.
>
> You also can't out-Nat the SNP
As I've no doubt tediously pointed out before, they should have been out-federalising/devo-maxing the LDs, not a hugely difficult task since the LD devotion to federalism is always more honoured in the breach than the observance. Instead they lurched between Union lite and more Yoon than the Tories, occasionally getting Brown to lumber out with his constitutional performing bear act.
Too late now.
The question we have to ask ourselves is: who will that be?
I think it will be Raab or McVey. Leadsom is too associated with backing the WAB time after time.
> If either make the final two, Priti or Baker could be the Tory Corbyn
Assuming Bakers out because you can't have a backbencher becoming PM and Priti won't have any support Boris is the most "pure" followed by Raab and Mcvey.