Nice as usual for Brexit options to be split 3 ways whereas apparently there is only one future form of remain? Can’t we have 3 of each in the confirmatory public vote - eg options around Schengen, joining the Euro, EU army etc etc?
Still makes Brexit 50 vs remain 46?
That’s why they want a referendum between Remain and an option that splits the leave vote
> Legally, certainly not. But come on. It's no more likely to pass even with a 'confirmatory ballot', certainly when all her MPs would refuse to back her on the grounds that they are about to seek new leadership to avoid that very outcome.
According to Radio 4 this evening about 40 Labour MPs from Leave seats won by the Brexit Party last night have come out and refused to back EUref2 with a Remain option under any cirumstances. They could thus yet back the WA if Corbyn switches to EUref2 as Labour party policy rather than just a CU as previously and that would be enough when added onto the 286 who voted for the WA on MV3 to give it a majority finally with 326 votes.
Except who will move the WA again? Not any of the leadership candidates with a chance, not without some change that they seem unlikely to get.
Believe me I'd like to see it, but I just don't buy it from these MPs - if they were that concerned they should have backed it at MV3 to avoid this very situation, knowing it was the probable last chance, so their words look like posturing only.
> @kle4 said: > Has the timetable for the Tory beauty contest been announced yet? > > Early June beginning, 2-3 weeks of winnowing down the candidates, then to the hustings and vote in July I believe.
Yes. Starts June 10th with 2 candidates selected by the 27th June and the winner ready in post before Parliament breaks for the summer holidays
Nice as usual for Brexit options to be split 3 ways whereas apparently there is only one future form of remain? Can’t we have 3 of each in the confirmatory public vote - eg options around Schengen, joining the Euro, EU army etc etc?
Still makes Brexit 50 vs remain 46?
That’s why they want a referendum between Remain and an option that splits the leave vote
Was May's deal leaving or remaining?
According to Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg the deal was Leaving.
> I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.
>
> It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.
>
> Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).
>
> But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.
>
> We cannot let that happen here.
>
> The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.
>
> Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.
>
Yes, I fear for it too. The Tories seem to want to listen only to the Brexit party voters because they think that if they do listen to them they will get them back at the next GE. They are thinking only of themselves. The fact that one of the candidates - Raab - is boasting about ignoring Parliament is a hideous sign. How he can call himself a Tory beats me. This will not end well.
The Tories of the modern generation are essentially lazy blighters. They envy Nigel because he’s seemingly achieved all this success just by flogging facile ‘solutions’ and not doing any work. They want his easy life and think they can achieve that by mimicking him. How one pines for a politician like Maggie, who knew the value of hard work and that the world is complex place!
And much as I am opposed to the aims of Farage, he has spent 25 years touring the country and talking in drafty church halls honing his skills. He didn't take the easy path. The current crop of Tories seem to have done nothing.
> > Bit annoyed with Ladbrokes who have settled the losing bets in the EU Parliamentary elections but are prevaricating on paying out on the winning ones, despite the final results being known for a few hours now.
> >
> > Skybet have already settled with no fuss.
>
> Betfair are holding out on the vote share markets for no obvious reason.
Also annoying.
Perhaps they now have a strategy of holding onto winning punters money for as long as they can get away with?
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > @rcs1000 said: > > > "The new Conservative Leader needs to come out and say to the Leavers: "you will not get all you desire, but you will get the UK out of the EU. You will get an end to FoM. You will get us out of the CAP and the CFP. You will get an end ECJ supremacy over EU law. But this cannot simply be an exit for Nigel Farage, it has to be an exit that works for everyone." > > > And then they need to say to the Remainers: "Yes, I know you think it sucks that we're leaving the EU. But that is what the people voted for, and you see the strength of the Brexit Party vote last week. This genie will not be put back into the bottle. But let me give you something for your support: we're going to maintain our membership of Erasmus, so that Brits can still go to European universities. We're going to try and remain as close as we can to the EU, so there will be simplified processes for people from there coming to work here. This isn't going to be fortress Britain, this is going to be the UK walking alongside the EU." > > > ....................................................................................... > > > You are Theresa May and I claim in 9% in a nationwide vote. > > > Ooppps ..... > > @rcs1000 says it much better than Theresa May said it, though.
And for free and without the help of various SPADs etc.
So why can PBers see things better than our politicians ?
> "The new Conservative Leader needs to come out and say to the Leavers: "you will not get all you desire, but you will get the UK out of the EU. You will get an end to FoM. You will get us out of the CAP and the CFP. You will get an end ECJ supremacy over EU law. But this cannot simply be an exit for Nigel Farage, it has to be an exit that works for everyone."
>
>
> And then they need to say to the Remainers: "Yes, I know you think it sucks that we're leaving the EU. But that is what the people voted for, and you see the strength of the Brexit Party vote last week. This genie will not be put back into the bottle. But let me give you something for your support: we're going to maintain our membership of Erasmus, so that Brits can still go to European universities. We're going to try and remain as close as we can to the EU, so there will be simplified processes for people from there coming to work here. This isn't going to be fortress Britain, this is going to be the UK walking alongside the EU."
Nice as usual for Brexit options to be split 3 ways whereas apparently there is only one future form of remain? Can’t we have 3 of each in the confirmatory public vote - eg options around Schengen, joining the Euro, EU army etc etc?
Still makes Brexit 50 vs remain 46?
That’s why they want a referendum between Remain and an option that splits the leave vote
Was May's deal leaving or remaining?
According to Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg the deal was Leaving.
Indeed. Which makes it curious that any leaver should worry about the choice at another referendum being the WA or staying.
> @kle4 said: > > @kle4 said: > > > https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1133084631585218560 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Legally, certainly not. But come on. It's no more likely to pass even with a 'confirmatory ballot', certainly when all her MPs would refuse to back her on the grounds that they are about to seek new leadership to avoid that very outcome. > > > > According to Radio 4 this evening about 40 Labour MPs from Leave seats won by the Brexit Party last night have come out and refused to back EUref2 with a Remain option under any cirumstances. They could thus yet back the WA if Corbyn switches to EUref2 as Labour party policy rather than just a CU as previously and that would be enough when added onto the 286 who voted for the WA on MV3 to give it a majority finally with 326 votes. > > Except who will move the WA again? Not any of the leadership candidates with a chance, not without some change that they seem unlikely to get. > > Believe me I'd like to see it, but I just don't buy it from these MPs - if they were that concerned they should have backed it at MV3 to avoid this very situation, knowing it was the probable last chance, so their words look like posturing only.
Based on last night's results the Brexit Party won the Peterborough Council Area by 20% last night, if that result is repeated in the by election a week on Thursday and the Brexit Party gain the seat from Labour with the Tories third things could get interesting
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > > @Quincel said: > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > Bit annoyed with Ladbrokes who have settled the losing bets in the EU Parliamentary elections but are prevaricating on paying out on the winning ones, despite the final results being known for a few hours now. > > > > > > > > Skybet have already settled with no fuss. > > > > > > Betfair are holding out on the vote share markets for no obvious reason. > > > > Also annoying. > > > > Perhaps they now have a strategy of holding onto winning punters money for as long as they can get away with? > > They've paid out my winning bets. > > Mike's had the same experience. > >
As I have said before my view of things was already defeated right back at the start of the post referendum era. It is fanatics like you who have brought us to this sorry state.
No Richard it is you and the people who voted Leave. Where we are today was entirely foreseeable. It is of course fine for people like you to say you are surprised at this outcome but unforgivable for those who might end up running the county.
Now you may say, and I know this is your line, that whatever flavour of leave is better than remain, but this is a disaster and you set the process in motion.
And you can't now blame the people who voted not to put us through this.
Really it was David Cameron who set the process in motion. He didn’t have to hold a referendum, and it was particularly unwise to do so if he couldn’t contemplate enacting one of the outcomes.
@rcs1000 says it much better than Theresa May said it, though. And for free and without the help of various SPADs etc. So why can PBers see things better than our politicians ?
> @The_Taxman said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1133084631585218560 > > > > > > > > > > > > Legally, certainly not. But come on. It's no more likely to pass even with a 'confirmatory ballot', certainly when all her MPs would refuse to back her on the grounds that they are about to seek new leadership to avoid that very outcome. > > > > According to Radio 4 this evening about 40 Labour MPs from Leave seats won by the Brexit Party last night have come out and refused to back EUref2 with a Remain option under any cirumstances. They could thus yet back the WA if Corbyn switches to EUref2 as Labour party policy rather than just a CU as previously and that would be enough when added onto the 286 who voted for the WA on MV3 to give it a majority finally with 326 votes. > > Yeah, the problem is the 286 who voted for it last time are unlikely to all vote for it again in a final attempt by May!
A handful may not like Mogg and Davis but if 40 Labour MPs backed it it could still pass bearing in mind 326 is not the actual figure needed for a majority as SF do not take their seats and the Alliance winning in NI with SF second and the DUP 3rd today may have concentrated DUP minds too
> > > > The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. They still think that overturning a democratic vote is a viable way of settling the issue.
> > >
> > > This crisis has been made by Leavers not willing to vote for compromise and not willing to take responsibility for the Brexit they campaigned for - instead trying to insist that Remainers impose Brexit on them so that they can continue to cry betrayal.
> > >
> > > It is the most infantile behaviour I have ever seen.
> >
> > Someone else who has a problem with Maths. 27 morons from the ERG voted against the deal. If the Remainers in Parliament had supported it then it would have passed overwhelmingly. But of course they didn't because they were more interested in stopping Brexit than actually serving the country.
>
> 27 morons failed to vote for the deal. The opposition, however, performed the task they were given by their constituents (which is to oppose).
>
> It is not the job of anyone bar a conservative MP to vote for a policy / law being implemented by a conservative Government.
>
it was a policy that practically every MP in the Labour party was elected on. What price honour amongst Remainers?
Do we elect parties or individuals, I can never remember.
The Danes go to the polls again on June 5th for elections to the Folketing.
Two new polls both show the centre-left bloc of parties still ahead of the centre-right. YouGov has it 53-47 while Voxmeter has it 56-44.
It was a much better result in the EU elections for the ALDE member Venstre than had seemed likely - they beat the Social Democrats to top the poll but the centre-left parties still got 54% of the vote with strong results for the Socialistiske Folkeparti and Radikale Venstre making up for the slightly disappointing Social Democrat effort.
> > > Bit annoyed with Ladbrokes who have settled the losing bets in the EU Parliamentary elections but are prevaricating on paying out on the winning ones, despite the final results being known for a few hours now.
>
> > >
>
> > > Skybet have already settled with no fuss.
>
> >
>
> > Betfair are holding out on the vote share markets for no obvious reason.
>
>
>
> Also annoying.
>
>
>
> Perhaps they now have a strategy of holding onto winning punters money for as long as they can get away with?
>
> They've paid out my winning bets.
>
> Mike's had the same experience.
>
>
So why haven't they paid out mine, then?
Famous names?
It might be an issue at their end, contact them in the morning.
Last year I had to get Shadsy to involved to get a payout.
> @isam said: > As I have said before my view of things was already defeated right back at the start of the post referendum era. It is fanatics like you who have brought us to this sorry state. > > No Richard it is you and the people who voted Leave. Where we are today was entirely foreseeable. It is of course fine for people like you to say you are surprised at this outcome but unforgivable for those who might end up running the county. > > Now you may say, and I know this is your line, that whatever flavour of leave is better than remain, but this is a disaster and you set the process in motion. > > And you can't now blame the people who voted not to put us through this. > > > Really it was David Cameron who set the process in motion. He didn’t have to hold a referendum, and it was particularly unwise to do so if he couldn’t contemplate enacting one of the outcomes.
Fully agreed! And exactly why parliament should not do a second referendum where it cannot contemplate enacting one of the outcomes - no deal.
Genuine question this for any Brexit party supporters on here.
Is it the failure to leave the EU which is the problem?
Or is it the WA because it’s not proper Brexit?
In short, if the WA had been voted through would the Brexit party still be agitating on the basis that it is not a proper Brexit?
Or would they be content because Britain would have left? And if so, why aren’t they putting pressure on Tory MPs to vote for the deal?
If the WA had been voted through there wouldn’t be a Brexit Party
The pressure to vote for the deal is the fear of no deal l if they don’t. But they legislated that away like kids voting to outlaw detention... then guess what? They misbehave
As I have said before my view of things was already defeated right back at the start of the post referendum era. It is fanatics like you who have brought us to this sorry state.
No Richard it is you and the people who voted Leave. Where we are today was entirely foreseeable. It is of course fine for people like you to say you are surprised at this outcome but unforgivable for those who might end up running the county.
Now you may say, and I know this is your line, that whatever flavour of leave is better than remain, but this is a disaster and you set the process in motion.
And you can't now blame the people who voted not to put us through this.
Really it was David Cameron who set the process in motion. He didn’t have to hold a referendum, and it was particularly unwise to do so if he couldn’t contemplate enacting one of the outcomes.
I agree with his decision to hold the referendum; 4m people had effectively been disenfranchised.
Thing is, voting to leave was always going to be a disaster but at some point you need to let people have their say.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > @Quincel said: > > > > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > > > Bit annoyed with Ladbrokes who have settled the losing bets in the EU Parliamentary elections but are prevaricating on paying out on the winning ones, despite the final results being known for a few hours now. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Skybet have already settled with no fuss. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Betfair are holding out on the vote share markets for no obvious reason. > > > > > > > > > > > > Also annoying. > > > > > > > > > > > > Perhaps they now have a strategy of holding onto winning punters money for as long as they can get away with? > > > > > > They've paid out my winning bets. > > > > > > Mike's had the same experience. > > > > > > > > > > So why haven't they paid out mine, then? > > > > Famous names? > > It might be an issue at their end, contact them in the morning. > > Last year I had to get Shadsy to involved to get a payout.
> @Alistair said: > > @eek said: > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > > > > > > > > The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. They still think that overturning a democratic vote is a viable way of settling the issue. > > > > > > > > > > This crisis has been made by Leavers not willing to vote for compromise and not willing to take responsibility for the Brexit they campaigned for - instead trying to insist that Remainers impose Brexit on them so that they can continue to cry betrayal. > > > > > > > > > > It is the most infantile behaviour I have ever seen. > > > > > > > > Someone else who has a problem with Maths. 27 morons from the ERG voted against the deal. If the Remainers in Parliament had supported it then it would have passed overwhelmingly. But of course they didn't because they were more interested in stopping Brexit than actually serving the country. > > > > > > 27 morons failed to vote for the deal. The opposition, however, performed the task they were given by their constituents (which is to oppose). > > > > > > It is not the job of anyone bar a conservative MP to vote for a policy / law being implemented by a conservative Government. > > > > > > > it was a policy that practically every MP in the Labour party was elected on. What price honour amongst Remainers? > > Do we elect parties or individuals, I can never remember.
Individuals. And practically every one of them put in their personal literature that they would respect the vote to leave. That includes all those who then defected to Change UK
> @TOPPING said: > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1133075869583532038 > > > > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1133078562305642498 > > > > Nice as usual for Brexit options to be split 3 ways whereas apparently there is only one future form of remain? Can’t we have 3 of each in the confirmatory public vote - eg options around Schengen, joining the Euro, EU army etc etc? > > Still makes Brexit 50 vs remain 46? > > That’s why they want a referendum between Remain and an option that splits the leave vote > > Was May's deal leaving or remaining?
I know you weren't asking me Topping but Leaving for sure.
> @HYUFD said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1133084631585218560 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Legally, certainly not. But come on. It's no more likely to pass even with a 'confirmatory ballot', certainly when all her MPs would refuse to back her on the grounds that they are about to seek new leadership to avoid that very outcome. > > > > > > > > According to Radio 4 this evening about 40 Labour MPs from Leave seats won by the Brexit Party last night have come out and refused to back EUref2 with a Remain option under any cirumstances. They could thus yet back the WA if Corbyn switches to EUref2 as Labour party policy rather than just a CU as previously and that would be enough when added onto the 286 who voted for the WA on MV3 to give it a majority finally with 326 votes. > > > > Except who will move the WA again? Not any of the leadership candidates with a chance, not without some change that they seem unlikely to get. > > > > Believe me I'd like to see it, but I just don't buy it from these MPs - if they were that concerned they should have backed it at MV3 to avoid this very situation, knowing it was the probable last chance, so their words look like posturing only. > > Based on last night's results the Brexit Party won the Peterborough Council Area by 20% last night, if that result is repeated in the by election a week on Thursday and the Brexit Party gain the seat from Labour with the Tories third things could get interesting
Turnout will be the thing that decides that parliamentary by-election. The Labour party machine will be active where as both Labour and Tory had minimalistic efforts in the European elections. It is easy to get sucked into the view that the Brexit party will triumphantly sweep elections in the future but one has to remember a GE might have double the turnout of European elections. The shallow foundations of the Brexit party are susceptible to a change in tide! I wouldn't have thought Farage will get the media support of the Brexit press he has in the last few months. The Brexit media (Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail, Daily Express and The Sun) delivered for the Brexit party. The support of this media can just as easily be taken away as it was provided for Farage in the European elections.
As I have said before my view of things was already defeated right back at the start of the post referendum era. It is fanatics like you who have brought us to this sorry state.
No Richard it is you and the people who voted Leave. Where we are today was entirely foreseeable. It is of course fine for people like you to say you are surprised at this outcome but unforgivable for those who might end up running the county.
Now you may say, and I know this is your line, that whatever flavour of leave is better than remain, but this is a disaster and you set the process in motion.
And you can't now blame the people who voted not to put us through this.
Really it was David Cameron who set the process in motion. He didn’t have to hold a referendum, and it was particularly unwise to do so if he couldn’t contemplate enacting one of the outcomes.
I agree with his decision to hold the referendum; 4m people had effectively been disenfranchised.
Thing is, voting to leave was always going to be a disaster but at some point you need to let people have their say.
The 4m UKIP voters in 2015? The decision to hold a referendum had been made before they voted.
He should have said no, and let nature take its course. We may have ended up with a dozen UKIP MPs in 2015, and that would have meant there’d be more planning for life after a Leave vote than the none done by Cammo. A civil servant friend of mine said DC used to just laugh when people said leave might win.
Peter Hitchens is probably right that the only way to leave was via a govt with a majority having Leave in their manifesto
Genuine question this for any Brexit party supporters on here.
Is it the failure to leave the EU which is the problem?
Or is it the WA because it’s not proper Brexit?
In short, if the WA had been voted through would the Brexit party still be agitating on the basis that it is not a proper Brexit?
Or would they be content because Britain would have left? And if so, why aren’t they putting pressure on Tory MPs to vote for the deal?
If the WA had been voted through there wouldn’t be a Brexit Party
The pressure to vote for the deal is the fear of no deal if they don’t.
I don't think that's true. I think BP would still exist but it would exist in the same sense as UKIP did pre-referendum on between 8-12%.
They’d be talking to themselves if they did exist, and they sure wouldn’t have been getting publicity for winning Euro Elections
Yeah absolutely agree and I think the Tories would have been down to about 25% but we'd have been fine at Westminster by 2022 as the FTA started to take shape.
> @TOPPING said: > As I have said before my view of things was already defeated right back at the start of the post referendum era. It is fanatics like you who have brought us to this sorry state. > > No Richard it is you and the people who voted Leave. Where we are today was entirely foreseeable. It is of course fine for people like you to say you are surprised at this outcome but unforgivable for those who might end up running the county. > > Now you may say, and I know this is your line, that whatever flavour of leave is better than remain, but this is a disaster and you set the process in motion. > > And you can't now blame the people who voted not to put us through this.
Edited. Just seen Toppings reply to Isam which makes my accusation unfair.
> As I have said before my view of things was already defeated right back at the start of the post referendum era. It is fanatics like you who have brought us to this sorry state.
>
> No Richard it is you and the people who voted Leave. Where we are today was entirely foreseeable. It is of course fine for people like you to say you are surprised at this outcome but unforgivable for those who might end up running the county.
>
> Now you may say, and I know this is your line, that whatever flavour of leave is better than remain, but this is a disaster and you set the process in motion.
>
> And you can't now blame the people who voted not to put us through this.
>
>
> Really it was David Cameron who set the process in motion. He didn’t have to hold a referendum, and it was particularly unwise to do so if he couldn’t contemplate enacting one of the outcomes.
Fully agreed! And exactly why parliament should not do a second referendum where it cannot contemplate enacting one of the outcomes - no deal.
> @TOPPING said: > In theory no. But in practice everything is on hold now until Con have elected a new leader. > > In her resignation speech May acknowledged she'd failed and new leadership was needed to move things forwards. > > Yes it would be beyond mad (and a rare and unnecessary cruelty) for Theresa to have anything further to do with this from an executive perspective.
Well she'll be rolling out the red carpet for Donald.... That should keep her busy enough!
> > > Legally, certainly not. But come on. It's no more likely to pass even with a 'confirmatory ballot', certainly when all her MPs would refuse to back her on the grounds that they are about to seek new leadership to avoid that very outcome.
> >
> > According to Radio 4 this evening about 40 Labour MPs from Leave seats won by the Brexit Party last night have come out and refused to back EUref2 with a Remain option under any cirumstances. They could thus yet back the WA if Corbyn switches to EUref2 as Labour party policy rather than just a CU as previously and that would be enough when added onto the 286 who voted for the WA on MV3 to give it a majority finally with 326 votes.
>
> Yeah, the problem is the 286 who voted for it last time are unlikely to all vote for it again in a final attempt by May!
A handful may not like Mogg and Davis but if 40 Labour MPs backed it it could still pass bearing in mind 326 is not the actual figure needed for a majority as SF do not take their seats and the Alliance winning in NI with SF second and the DUP 3rd today may have concentrated DUP minds too
SF came first in 1st preferences, then DUP, then Alliance.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. > > > > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > This crisis has been made by Leavers > > > > > > ++++++++++ > > > > > > The crisis is made by both, obviously. > > > > > > The person for whom I have the most respect, in this whole crazy mess, is the MP for Eastbourne, Stephen Lloyd. A man willing to back a deal he felt was best for the country, even though it will cost him his career. The easy option for him would have been to be in favour of some unicorn, so he could say "Oh, I back Brexit, but not this Brexit." Instead he said, "Well, I may be a Remainer, but this is the right thing for the country." And he chose that path, even though it has resulted in the whip having been withdrawn, and it almost certainly means his deselection. > > > > > > Those (many) Labour MPs who profess to back Brexit, but who put Party over Country. You are part of the problem. > > > > > > Those (slightly fewer, but still numerous) Conservative MPs who see No Deal as achievable through suspending parliament and letting the clock run down. You too are part of the problem. > > > > > > I could go on. > > > > I think A Meeks was right when he said it would cause trouble to have Remainers vote for a Brexit opposed by Leavers. They can insist that we have a deal, but I don't think they can force a specific deal through that is opposed by Leavers. > > > > Leavers have to vote for a deal. And they have to be realistic and realise that to make a deal it has to be something the other side - i.e. the EU - can live with. They seem stuck in their delusion that the EU oppresses us which prevents then from agreeing any deal with the EU. > > Equating No Dealers with the majority of Leavers either inside or outside Parliament is another dishonest tactic. I do not claim that all Remainers are federalists like Williamglenn. Both are equally disingenuous claims.
You could be a "moron" for expressing a view you disagreed with. Perhaps best not to lecture others on how to conduct a debate?
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > As I have said before my view of things was already defeated right back at the start of the post referendum era. It is fanatics like you who have brought us to this sorry state. > > > > > > No Richard it is you and the people who voted Leave. Where we are today was entirely foreseeable. It is of course fine for people like you to say you are surprised at this outcome but unforgivable for those who might end up running the county. > > > > > > Now you may say, and I know this is your line, that whatever flavour of leave is better than remain, but this is a disaster and you set the process in motion. > > > > > > And you can't now blame the people who voted not to put us through this. > > > > > > > > > Really it was David Cameron who set the process in motion. He didn’t have to hold a referendum, and it was particularly unwise to do so if he couldn’t contemplate enacting one of the outcomes. > > > > Fully agreed! And exactly why parliament should not do a second referendum where it cannot contemplate enacting one of the outcomes - no deal. > > They can’t contemplate a deal either!
The deadlock can only be broken with a new vote. GE not gonna happen. So second referendum it is.
As I have said before my view of things was already defeated right back at the start of the post referendum era. It is fanatics like you who have brought us to this sorry state.
No Richard it is you and the people who voted Leave. Where we are today was entirely foreseeable. It is of course fine for people like you to say you are surprised at this outcome but unforgivable for those who might end up running the county.
Now you may say, and I know this is your line, that whatever flavour of leave is better than remain, but this is a disaster and you set the process in motion.
And you can't now blame the people who voted not to put us through this.
Really it was David Cameron who set the process in motion. He didn’t have to hold a referendum, and it was particularly unwise to do so if he couldn’t contemplate enacting one of the outcomes.
I agree with his decision to hold the referendum; 4m people had effectively been disenfranchised.
Thing is, voting to leave was always going to be a disaster but at some point you need to let people have their say.
The 4m UKIP voters in 2015? The decision to hold a referendum had been made before they voted.
He should have said no, and let nature take its course. We may have ended up with a dozen UKIP MPs in 2015, and that would have meant there’d be more planning for life after a Leave vote than the none done by Cammo. A civil servant friend of mine said DC used to just laugh when people said leave might win.
Peter Hitchens is probably right that the only way to leave was via a govt with a majority having Leave in their manifesto
Exactly so. He also opined the process would take 10 years.
> > As I have said before my view of things was already defeated right back at the start of the post referendum era. It is fanatics like you who have brought us to this sorry state.
>
> >
>
> > No Richard it is you and the people who voted Leave. Where we are today was entirely foreseeable. It is of course fine for people like you to say you are surprised at this outcome but unforgivable for those who might end up running the county.
>
> >
>
> > Now you may say, and I know this is your line, that whatever flavour of leave is better than remain, but this is a disaster and you set the process in motion.
>
> >
>
> > And you can't now blame the people who voted not to put us through this.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Really it was David Cameron who set the process in motion. He didn’t have to hold a referendum, and it was particularly unwise to do so if he couldn’t contemplate enacting one of the outcomes.
>
>
>
> Fully agreed! And exactly why parliament should not do a second referendum where it cannot contemplate enacting one of the outcomes - no deal.
>
> They can’t contemplate a deal either!
The deadlock can only be broken with a new vote. GE not gonna happen. So second referendum it is.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. > > > > > > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > This crisis has been made by Leavers > > > > > > > > ++++++++++ > > > > > > > > The crisis is made by both, obviously. > > > > > > > > The person for whom I have the most respect, in this whole crazy mess, is the MP for Eastbourne, Stephen Lloyd. A man willing to back a deal he felt was best for the country, even though it will cost him his career. The easy option for him would have been to be in favour of some unicorn, so he could say "Oh, I back Brexit, but not this Brexit." Instead he said, "Well, I may be a Remainer, but this is the right thing for the country." And he chose that path, even though it has resulted in the whip having been withdrawn, and it almost certainly means his deselection. > > > > > > > > Those (many) Labour MPs who profess to back Brexit, but who put Party over Country. You are part of the problem. > > > > > > > > Those (slightly fewer, but still numerous) Conservative MPs who see No Deal as achievable through suspending parliament and letting the clock run down. You too are part of the problem. > > > > > > > > I could go on. > > > > > > I think A Meeks was right when he said it would cause trouble to have Remainers vote for a Brexit opposed by Leavers. They can insist that we have a deal, but I don't think they can force a specific deal through that is opposed by Leavers. > > > > > > Leavers have to vote for a deal. And they have to be realistic and realise that to make a deal it has to be something the other side - i.e. the EU - can live with. They seem stuck in their delusion that the EU oppresses us which prevents then from agreeing any deal with the EU. > > > > Equating No Dealers with the majority of Leavers either inside or outside Parliament is another dishonest tactic. I do not claim that all Remainers are federalists like Williamglenn. Both are equally disingenuous claims. > > You could be a "moron" for expressing a view you disagreed with. Perhaps best not to lecture others on how to conduct a debate?
Not for the first time your postings are incoherent. Drinking?
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > In Ireland 2 MEPs have been elected so far. Out of 11 > > > > At their rate, they will finish counting after the first sitting of the new Parliament but maybe before Brexit > > I think India counted ~500 million in less than 12 hours?
Genuine question this for any Brexit party supporters on here.
Is it the failure to leave the EU which is the problem?
Or is it the WA because it’s not proper Brexit?
In short, if the WA had been voted through would the Brexit party still be agitating on the basis that it is not a proper Brexit?
Or would they be content because Britain would have left? And if so, why aren’t they putting pressure on Tory MPs to vote for the deal?
If the WA had been voted through there wouldn’t be a Brexit Party
The pressure to vote for the deal is the fear of no deal l if they don’t. But they legislated that away like kids voting to outlaw detention... then guess what? They misbehave
Why then is Farage complaining this evening about Tory candidates voting for the WA?
In Ireland 2 MEPs have been elected so far. Out of 11
At their rate, they will finish counting after the first sitting of the new Parliament but maybe before Brexit
I think India counted ~500 million in less than 12 hours?
But when the Indian state was founded after WWII the British didn’t insist they used STV for elections!
On the 38th count joe blogs has finally reached the quota and been elected....
Of course the Irish will probably elect more independents proportionately to Brussels than any other EU member state. It’s one place where people do vote for candidates not parties - thanks mainly to STV. You can choose between several candidates from your party or none. Grieve, Francois or Gove on the one ballot paper - you decide which type of Tory you prefer.
> @isam said: > As I have said before my view of things was already defeated right back at the start of the post referendum era. It is fanatics like you who have brought us to this sorry state. > > No Richard it is you and the people who voted Leave. Where we are today was entirely foreseeable. It is of course fine for people like you to say you are surprised at this outcome but unforgivable for those who might end up running the county. > > Now you may say, and I know this is your line, that whatever flavour of leave is better than remain, but this is a disaster and you set the process in motion. > > And you can't now blame the people who voted not to put us through this. > > > Really it was David Cameron who set the process in motion. He didn’t have to hold a referendum, and it was particularly unwise to do so if he couldn’t contemplate enacting one of the outcomes. > > I agree with his decision to hold the referendum; 4m people had effectively been disenfranchised. > > Thing is, voting to leave was always going to be a disaster but at some point you need to let people have their say. > > The 4m UKIP voters in 2015? The decision to hold a referendum had been made before they voted. > > He should have said no, and let nature take its course. We may have ended up with a dozen UKIP MPs in 2015, and that would have meant there’d be more planning for life after a Leave vote than the none done by Cammo. A civil servant friend of mine said DC used to just laugh when people said leave might win. > > Peter Hitchens is probably right that the only way to leave was via a govt with a majority having Leave in their manifesto
I find David Cameron's strategy in the 2015 election and that referendum commitment curious. He committed to a referendum on the Eu yet his strategy and ground game were deeply invested in Lib Dem held seats. Given the Lib Dems are pro-European I find his actions and decisions contradictory. The two main political parties have limited resources to target about 70 seats with mailshots, telephone canvassing and the like from party headquarters or affiliates. It therefore makes me wonder the validity of the claim that he had to offer the referendum on the EU as his ground strategy and centrally provided resources targeted LD seats and not the places UKIP might have made a breakthrough....
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > In Ireland 2 MEPs have been elected so far. Out of 11 > > > > At their rate, they will finish counting after the first sitting of the new Parliament but maybe before Brexit > > I think India counted ~500 million in less than 12 hours?
It's easy to count FPTP constituencies compared to STV.
Why then is Farage complaining this evening about Tory candidates voting for the WA?
Because he can. By not delivering brexit we've given Nige the initiative to push his own agenda of no deal. The dereliction of duty by our Parliament is behind this. Nothing else.
> @AndreaParma_82 said: > In Ireland 2 MEPs have been elected so far. Out of 11 > > At their rate, they will finish counting after the first sitting of the new Parliament but maybe before Brexit
Complain about that, but, they are still counting in Oz. 2 seats yet to declare a winner there.
Genuine question this for any Brexit party supporters on here.
Is it the failure to leave the EU which is the problem?
Or is it the WA because it’s not proper Brexit?
In short, if the WA had been voted through would the Brexit party still be agitating on the basis that it is not a proper Brexit?
Or would they be content because Britain would have left? And if so, why aren’t they putting pressure on Tory MPs to vote for the deal?
If the WA had been voted through there wouldn’t be a Brexit Party
The pressure to vote for the deal is the fear of no deal l if they don’t. But they legislated that away like kids voting to outlaw detention... then guess what? They misbehave
Why then is Farage complaining this evening about Tory candidates voting for the WA?
Can’t speak for him, I voted for them because I want to leave, and I don’t like the way MPs have filibustered the public by voting down every deal. If they are scared of the consequences they might not keep doing so.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. > > > > > > > > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > > This crisis has been made by Leavers > > > > > > > > > > ++++++++++ > > > > > > > > > > The crisis is made by both, obviously. > > > > > > > > > > The person for whom I have the most respect, in this whole crazy mess, is the MP for Eastbourne, Stephen Lloyd. A man willing to back a deal he felt was best for the country, even though it will cost him his career. The easy option for him would have been to be in favour of some unicorn, so he could say "Oh, I back Brexit, but not this Brexit." Instead he said, "Well, I may be a Remainer, but this is the right thing for the country." And he chose that path, even though it has resulted in the whip having been withdrawn, and it almost certainly means his deselection. > > > > > > > > > > Those (many) Labour MPs who profess to back Brexit, but who put Party over Country. You are part of the problem. > > > > > > > > > > Those (slightly fewer, but still numerous) Conservative MPs who see No Deal as achievable through suspending parliament and letting the clock run down. You too are part of the problem. > > > > > > > > > > I could go on. > > > > > > > > I think A Meeks was right when he said it would cause trouble to have Remainers vote for a Brexit opposed by Leavers. They can insist that we have a deal, but I don't think they can force a specific deal through that is opposed by Leavers. > > > > > > > > Leavers have to vote for a deal. And they have to be realistic and realise that to make a deal it has to be something the other side - i.e. the EU - can live with. They seem stuck in their delusion that the EU oppresses us which prevents then from agreeing any deal with the EU. > > > > > > Equating No Dealers with the majority of Leavers either inside or outside Parliament is another dishonest tactic. I do not claim that all Remainers are federalists like Williamglenn. Both are equally disingenuous claims. > > > > You could be a "moron" for expressing a view you disagreed with. Perhaps best not to lecture others on how to conduct a debate? > > Not for the first time your postings are incoherent. Drinking?
An autocorrect fail that I missed. "could be" should read "called me", but I see that you didn't miss a chance to be needlessly insulting.
> @MaxPB said: > Why then is Farage complaining this evening about Tory candidates voting for the WA? > > > > Because he can. By not delivering brexit we've given Nige the initiative to push his own agenda of no deal. The dereliction of duty by our Parliament is behind this. Nothing else.
I actually think Parliament is doing its job. It is not rubber stamping things at the moment. Given the enduring nature of the WA, better to get it right than regret for eternity! The reasons for not passing the WA are various and complicated but the very fact we would be giving up the best deal being in the EU for a lower status with no democratic pathways to advocate our countries agenda is a valid reason for Brexiteer and remainer's not voting for it. I believe the only way out of this is a three way referendum on No Deal, May's Deal or Remain.
> @The_Taxman said: > > @MaxPB said: > > Why then is Farage complaining this evening about Tory candidates voting for the WA? > > > > > > > > Because he can. By not delivering brexit we've given Nige the initiative to push his own agenda of no deal. The dereliction of duty by our Parliament is behind this. Nothing else. > > I actually think Parliament is doing its job. It is not rubber stamping things at the moment. Given the enduring nature of the WA, better to get it right than regret for eternity! The reasons for not passing the WA are various and complicated but the very fact we would be giving up the best deal being in the EU for a lower status with no democratic pathways to advocate our countries agenda is a valid reason for Brexiteer and remainer's not voting for it. I believe the only way out of this is a three way referendum on No Deal, May's Deal or Remain.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @Peter_the_Punter said: > > Ladbrokes have paid out on EU percentages results. Betfair still dawdling. > > Yep. Just paid me too. Good but I had to chase. > > Contemplating sending Betfair a stropagram.
Did you also benefit from advice given by the incurably modest TSE on the Conservatives performance?
Somebody should give him a hat-tip, as he is unlikely to mention the matter himself.
> @another_richard said: > > @Peter_the_Punter said: > > Ladbrokes have paid out on EU percentages results. Betfair still dawdling. > > I wonder if they do that hoping successful punters will get tired of waiting and cash out - so losing a few pounds.
Doesn't explain why the exchange markets are still open, and even more bizarrely there's £1k at 1.02 on the LDs to get 15-20% of the vote!
UK 36.9% - second highest for the UK after 38.5% in 2004
EU overall 50.9% - first time EU turnout has gone up, after 7 elections on the trot where turnout has gone down. Also the first time turnout has exceeded 50.0% since 1994.
> @AndreaParma_82 said: > In Ireland 2 MEPs have been elected so far. Out of 11 > > At their rate, they will finish counting after the first sitting of the new Parliament but maybe before Brexit
In fairness, they also had local council elections, a referendum on divorce, and mayoral elections to count, before the Euros!
In fairness to Hunt, I am surprised that any of the candidates deemed to have a chance would take this stance, so he has unblandified himself to some degree.
Not that I see it as being popular, or that a desire to get a deal done will see it done.
More meaningless nonsense from Labour. They are now officially in favour of "a confirmatory referendum on a credible deal". A referendum that can never happen without what they consider a 'credible deal' (ie. not a "Tory deal") on the table. They will never vote in Parliament for a deal (well, in reality, the only deal - May's) that has the support of the Tory party.
Interesting intervention from Gove on EU settled status as well. I see there are some people pointing out the apparent flaws in his policy (basically allows any EU resident to settle here).
But remember - Gove is in favour of FoM, so for him there are no flaws in such a policy, it is simply a variant of FoM. Is he, in essence going to be advocating the soft Brexit option? How much do Tory brexiteers (as opposed to Labour ones) really care about restrictions on FoM?
> @kle4 said: > https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1133110020202278914 > > > > In fairness to Hunt, I am surprised that any of the candidates deemed to have a chance would take this stance, so he has unblandified himself to some degree. > > Not that I see it as being popular, or that a desire to get a deal done will see it done.
It is possible that some of the Tory leadership candidates are positioning themselves for the contest after this one... (if they don't win this one). If they're going to stand, they might as well offer something distinctive.
So many people are talking about it being necessary for the Tories to embrace no deal to see off BXP. But destroying the country has electoral consequences too...
I don't think it is as useful as people might wish to believe, as I don't think we the public care as much about authenticity, or getting out to normal people and all that, as we might claim we do. That said, it is at least an interesting approach to take.
> In fairness to Hunt, I am surprised that any of the candidates deemed to have a chance would take this stance, so he has unblandified himself to some degree.
>
> Not that I see it as being popular, or that a desire to get a deal done will see it done.
It is possible that some of the Tory leadership candidates are positioning themselves for the contest after this one... (if they don't win this one). If they're going to stand, they might as well offer something distinctive.
So many people are talking about it being necessary for the Tories to embrace no deal to see off BXP. But destroying the country has electoral consequences too...
Yes, but the Tory party has probably crossed the rubicon on that front - they are too far down the no deal road to turn back, since they have had half a damn year to Brexit and not done so. Now they will pursue anything that looks like a tough Brexit, so long as it is not that which they have rejected already, and hope like hell that works for the country. Somehow.
> @kle4 said: > > @kle4 said: > > > https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1133110020202278914 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > In fairness to Hunt, I am surprised that any of the candidates deemed to have a chance would take this stance, so he has unblandified himself to some degree. > > > > > > Not that I see it as being popular, or that a desire to get a deal done will see it done. > > > > It is possible that some of the Tory leadership candidates are positioning themselves for the contest after this one... (if they don't win this one). If they're going to stand, they might as well offer something distinctive. > > > > So many people are talking about it being necessary for the Tories to embrace no deal to see off BXP. But destroying the country has electoral consequences too... > > Yes, but the Tory party has probably crossed the rubicon on that front - they are too far down the no deal road to turn back, since they have had half a damn year to Brexit and not done so. Now they will pursue anything that looks like a tough Brexit, so long as it is not that which they have rejected already, and hope like hell that works for the country. Somehow.
Half a damn year? There's been THREE YEARS since the referendum already.
> @kle4 said: > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1133112107040423941 > > > > I don't think it is as useful as people might wish to believe, as I don't think we the public care as much about authenticity, or getting out to normal people and all that, as we might claim we do. That said, it is at least an interesting approach to take.
Agree. He needs to get some attention somehow, this has got to be worth a shot.
> @alex. said: > Interesting intervention from Gove on EU settled status as well. I see there are some people pointing out the apparent flaws in his policy (basically allows any EU resident to settle here). > > But remember - Gove is in favour of FoM, so for him there are no flaws in such a policy, it is simply a variant of FoM. Is he, in essence going to be advocating the soft Brexit option? How much do Tory brexiteers (as opposed to Labour ones) really care about restrictions on FoM?
He's differentiating and immunising himself from the accusations of racism, little Englanderism etc that are routinely thrown at leavers. It's a smart move that makes him stand out in a crowded field whatever the practicalities of it are.
> In fairness to Hunt, I am surprised that any of the candidates deemed to have a chance would take this stance, so he has unblandified himself to some degree.
>
> Not that I see it as being popular, or that a desire to get a deal done will see it done.
It is possible that some of the Tory leadership candidates are positioning themselves for the contest after this one... (if they don't win this one). If they're going to stand, they might as well offer something distinctive.
So many people are talking about it being necessary for the Tories to embrace no deal to see off BXP. But destroying the country has electoral consequences too...
Yes, but the Tory party has probably crossed the rubicon on that front - they are too far down the no deal road to turn back, since they have had half a damn year to Brexit and not done so. Now they will pursue anything that looks like a tough Brexit, so long as it is not that which they have rejected already, and hope like hell that works for the country. Somehow.
I don't think Tory MPs are in favour of No Deal, if they put two candidates to the members who are opposed to No Deal the members will have to suck it up.
Gove and Hunt as the final two will be fine by me, and plausible.
> In fairness to Hunt, I am surprised that any of the candidates deemed to have a chance would take this stance, so he has unblandified himself to some degree.
>
> Not that I see it as being popular, or that a desire to get a deal done will see it done.
It is possible that some of the Tory leadership candidates are positioning themselves for the contest after this one... (if they don't win this one). If they're going to stand, they might as well offer something distinctive.
So many people are talking about it being necessary for the Tories to embrace no deal to see off BXP. But destroying the country has electoral consequences too...
Yes, but the Tory party has probably crossed the rubicon on that front - they are too far down the no deal road to turn back, since they have had half a damn year to Brexit and not done so. Now they will pursue anything that looks like a tough Brexit, so long as it is not that which they have rejected already, and hope like hell that works for the country. Somehow.
I don't think Tory MPs are in favour of No Deal, if they put two candidates to the members who are opposed to No Deal the members will have to suck it up.
Gove and Hunt as the final two will be fine by me, and plausible.
And you think that strategy works out for the party? Baker and co would sit by happily as well?
And even if they don't want no deal, we seem unlikely to get a new deal and even Hunt and Javid said no to the deal being softened further, so what next?
> > In fairness to Hunt, I am surprised that any of the candidates deemed to have a chance would take this stance, so he has unblandified himself to some degree.
>
> >
>
> > Not that I see it as being popular, or that a desire to get a deal done will see it done.
>
>
>
> It is possible that some of the Tory leadership candidates are positioning themselves for the contest after this one... (if they don't win this one). If they're going to stand, they might as well offer something distinctive.
>
>
>
> So many people are talking about it being necessary for the Tories to embrace no deal to see off BXP. But destroying the country has electoral consequences too...
>
> Yes, but the Tory party has probably crossed the rubicon on that front - they are too far down the no deal road to turn back, since they have had half a damn year to Brexit and not done so. Now they will pursue anything that looks like a tough Brexit, so long as it is not that which they have rejected already, and hope like hell that works for the country. Somehow.
Half a damn year? There's been THREE YEARS since the referendum already.
I was referring only to the period in consideration of the deal. The point being that was clearly too soft for the party to pass, so even if going harder does destroy the country the party is committed to that path. We can only hope the optimists like yourself are correct instead.
> In fairness to Hunt, I am surprised that any of the candidates deemed to have a chance would take this stance, so he has unblandified himself to some degree.
>
> Not that I see it as being popular, or that a desire to get a deal done will see it done.
It is possible that some of the Tory leadership candidates are positioning themselves for the contest after this one... (if they don't win this one). If they're going to stand, they might as well offer something distinctive.
So many people are talking about it being necessary for the Tories to embrace no deal to see off BXP. But destroying the country has electoral consequences too...
Yes, but the Tory party has probably crossed the rubicon on that front - they are too far down the no deal road to turn back, since they have had half a damn year to Brexit and not done so. Now they will pursue anything that looks like a tough Brexit, so long as it is not that which they have rejected already, and hope like hell that works for the country. Somehow.
I don't think Tory MPs are in favour of No Deal, if they put two candidates to the members who are opposed to No Deal the members will have to suck it up.
Gove and Hunt as the final two will be fine by me, and plausible.
And you think that strategy works out for the party? Baker and co would sit by happily as well?
And even if they don't want no deal, we seem unlikely to get a new deal and even Hunt and Javid said no to the deal being softened further, so what next?
I'm thinking of the best interests of the country.
I think the ERG will be in for a shock if they do anything to enable Corbyn as PM.
> Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political class are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
>
> They never learn...
>
A vote share of 31.6% is not a majority. You do the math.
Maths.
Maths or math, it was actually sub 31% I believe - for some bizarre reason the headline figure does not include NI!
Comments
Believe me I'd like to see it, but I just don't buy it from these MPs - if they were that concerned they should have backed it at MV3 to avoid this very situation, knowing it was the probable last chance, so their words look like posturing only.
> Has the timetable for the Tory beauty contest been announced yet?
>
> Early June beginning, 2-3 weeks of winnowing down the candidates, then to the hustings and vote in July I believe.
Yes. Starts June 10th with 2 candidates selected by the 27th June and the winner ready in post before Parliament breaks for the summer holidays
> @rcs1000 said:
>
>
> "The new Conservative Leader needs to come out and say to the Leavers: "you will not get all you desire, but you will get the UK out of the EU. You will get an end to FoM. You will get us out of the CAP and the CFP. You will get an end ECJ supremacy over EU law. But this cannot simply be an exit for Nigel Farage, it has to be an exit that works for everyone."
>
>
> And then they need to say to the Remainers: "Yes, I know you think it sucks that we're leaving the EU. But that is what the people voted for, and you see the strength of the Brexit Party vote last week. This genie will not be put back into the bottle. But let me give you something for your support: we're going to maintain our membership of Erasmus, so that Brits can still go to European universities. We're going to try and remain as close as we can to the EU, so there will be simplified processes for people from there coming to work here. This isn't going to be fortress Britain, this is going to be the UK walking alongside the EU."
>
>
> .......................................................................................
>
>
> You are Theresa May and I claim in 9% in a nationwide vote.
>
>
> Ooppps .....
>
> @rcs1000 says it much better than Theresa May said it, though.
And for free and without the help of various SPADs etc.
So why can PBers see things better than our politicians ?
Is it the failure to leave the EU which is the problem?
Or is it the WA because it’s not proper Brexit?
In short, if the WA had been voted through would the Brexit party still be agitating on the basis that it is not a proper Brexit?
Or would they be content because Britain would have left? And if so, why aren’t they putting pressure on Tory MPs to vote for the deal?
It might give an idea of how turnout between various demographics changed and hence the voting change between different demographics.
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1133084631585218560
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Legally, certainly not. But come on. It's no more likely to pass even with a 'confirmatory ballot', certainly when all her MPs would refuse to back her on the grounds that they are about to seek new leadership to avoid that very outcome.
>
>
>
> According to Radio 4 this evening about 40 Labour MPs from Leave seats won by the Brexit Party last night have come out and refused to back EUref2 with a Remain option under any cirumstances. They could thus yet back the WA if Corbyn switches to EUref2 as Labour party policy rather than just a CU as previously and that would be enough when added onto the 286 who voted for the WA on MV3 to give it a majority finally with 326 votes.
>
> Except who will move the WA again? Not any of the leadership candidates with a chance, not without some change that they seem unlikely to get.
>
> Believe me I'd like to see it, but I just don't buy it from these MPs - if they were that concerned they should have backed it at MV3 to avoid this very situation, knowing it was the probable last chance, so their words look like posturing only.
Based on last night's results the Brexit Party won the Peterborough Council Area by 20% last night, if that result is repeated in the by election a week on Thursday and the Brexit Party gain the seat from Labour with the Tories third things could get interesting
> > @Quincel said:
>
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > > Bit annoyed with Ladbrokes who have settled the losing bets in the EU Parliamentary elections but are prevaricating on paying out on the winning ones, despite the final results being known for a few hours now.
>
> > >
>
> > > Skybet have already settled with no fuss.
>
> >
>
> > Betfair are holding out on the vote share markets for no obvious reason.
>
>
>
> Also annoying.
>
>
>
> Perhaps they now have a strategy of holding onto winning punters money for as long as they can get away with?
>
> They've paid out my winning bets.
>
> Mike's had the same experience.
>
>
So why haven't they paid out mine, then?
Famous names?
Really it was David Cameron who set the process in motion. He didn’t have to hold a referendum, and it was particularly unwise to do so if he couldn’t contemplate enacting one of the outcomes.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1133084631585218560
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Legally, certainly not. But come on. It's no more likely to pass even with a 'confirmatory ballot', certainly when all her MPs would refuse to back her on the grounds that they are about to seek new leadership to avoid that very outcome.
> >
> > According to Radio 4 this evening about 40 Labour MPs from Leave seats won by the Brexit Party last night have come out and refused to back EUref2 with a Remain option under any cirumstances. They could thus yet back the WA if Corbyn switches to EUref2 as Labour party policy rather than just a CU as previously and that would be enough when added onto the 286 who voted for the WA on MV3 to give it a majority finally with 326 votes.
>
> Yeah, the problem is the 286 who voted for it last time are unlikely to all vote for it again in a final attempt by May!
A handful may not like Mogg and Davis but if 40 Labour MPs backed it it could still pass bearing in mind 326 is not the actual figure needed for a majority as SF do not take their seats and the Alliance winning in NI with SF second and the DUP 3rd today may have concentrated DUP minds too
Two new polls both show the centre-left bloc of parties still ahead of the centre-right. YouGov has it 53-47 while Voxmeter has it 56-44.
It was a much better result in the EU elections for the ALDE member Venstre than had seemed likely - they beat the Social Democrats to top the poll but the centre-left parties still got 54% of the vote with strong results for the Socialistiske Folkeparti and Radikale Venstre making up for the slightly disappointing Social Democrat effort.
Last year I had to get Shadsy to involved to get a payout.
> As I have said before my view of things was already defeated right back at the start of the post referendum era. It is fanatics like you who have brought us to this sorry state.
>
> No Richard it is you and the people who voted Leave. Where we are today was entirely foreseeable. It is of course fine for people like you to say you are surprised at this outcome but unforgivable for those who might end up running the county.
>
> Now you may say, and I know this is your line, that whatever flavour of leave is better than remain, but this is a disaster and you set the process in motion.
>
> And you can't now blame the people who voted not to put us through this.
>
>
> Really it was David Cameron who set the process in motion. He didn’t have to hold a referendum, and it was particularly unwise to do so if he couldn’t contemplate enacting one of the outcomes.
Fully agreed! And exactly why parliament should not do a second referendum where it cannot contemplate enacting one of the outcomes - no deal.
The pressure to vote for the deal is the fear of no deal l if they don’t. But they legislated that away like kids voting to outlaw detention... then guess what? They misbehave
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/European-election-post-vote-poll-May-2019-2.xlsx
Thing is, voting to leave was always going to be a disaster but at some point you need to let people have their say.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > > @Quincel said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> >
>
> > > > Bit annoyed with Ladbrokes who have settled the losing bets in the EU Parliamentary elections but are prevaricating on paying out on the winning ones, despite the final results being known for a few hours now.
>
> >
>
> > > >
>
> >
>
> > > > Skybet have already settled with no fuss.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Betfair are holding out on the vote share markets for no obvious reason.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Also annoying.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Perhaps they now have a strategy of holding onto winning punters money for as long as they can get away with?
>
> >
>
> > They've paid out my winning bets.
>
> >
>
> > Mike's had the same experience.
>
> >
>
> >
>
>
>
> So why haven't they paid out mine, then?
>
>
>
> Famous names?
>
> It might be an issue at their end, contact them in the morning.
>
> Last year I had to get Shadsy to involved to get a payout.
Already contacted. Will wait & see.
Thanks.
> > @eek said:
>
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
>
> > > > @OblitusSumMe said:
>
> > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
>
> > > > >
>
> > > > > The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. They still think that overturning a democratic vote is a viable way of settling the issue.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > This crisis has been made by Leavers not willing to vote for compromise and not willing to take responsibility for the Brexit they campaigned for - instead trying to insist that Remainers impose Brexit on them so that they can continue to cry betrayal.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > It is the most infantile behaviour I have ever seen.
>
> > >
>
> > > Someone else who has a problem with Maths. 27 morons from the ERG voted against the deal. If the Remainers in Parliament had supported it then it would have passed overwhelmingly. But of course they didn't because they were more interested in stopping Brexit than actually serving the country.
>
> >
>
> > 27 morons failed to vote for the deal. The opposition, however, performed the task they were given by their constituents (which is to oppose).
>
> >
>
> > It is not the job of anyone bar a conservative MP to vote for a policy / law being implemented by a conservative Government.
>
> >
>
>
>
> it was a policy that practically every MP in the Labour party was elected on. What price honour amongst Remainers?
>
> Do we elect parties or individuals, I can never remember.
Individuals. And practically every one of them put in their personal literature that they would respect the vote to leave. That includes all those who then defected to Change UK
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1133075869583532038
>
>
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1133078562305642498
>
>
>
> Nice as usual for Brexit options to be split 3 ways whereas apparently there is only one future form of remain? Can’t we have 3 of each in the confirmatory public vote - eg options around Schengen, joining the Euro, EU army etc etc?
>
> Still makes Brexit 50 vs remain 46?
>
> That’s why they want a referendum between Remain and an option that splits the leave vote
>
> Was May's deal leaving or remaining?
I know you weren't asking me Topping but Leaving for sure.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> >
> > > https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1133084631585218560
> >
> >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Legally, certainly not. But come on. It's no more likely to pass even with a 'confirmatory ballot', certainly when all her MPs would refuse to back her on the grounds that they are about to seek new leadership to avoid that very outcome.
> >
> >
> >
> > According to Radio 4 this evening about 40 Labour MPs from Leave seats won by the Brexit Party last night have come out and refused to back EUref2 with a Remain option under any cirumstances. They could thus yet back the WA if Corbyn switches to EUref2 as Labour party policy rather than just a CU as previously and that would be enough when added onto the 286 who voted for the WA on MV3 to give it a majority finally with 326 votes.
> >
> > Except who will move the WA again? Not any of the leadership candidates with a chance, not without some change that they seem unlikely to get.
> >
> > Believe me I'd like to see it, but I just don't buy it from these MPs - if they were that concerned they should have backed it at MV3 to avoid this very situation, knowing it was the probable last chance, so their words look like posturing only.
>
> Based on last night's results the Brexit Party won the Peterborough Council Area by 20% last night, if that result is repeated in the by election a week on Thursday and the Brexit Party gain the seat from Labour with the Tories third things could get interesting
Turnout will be the thing that decides that parliamentary by-election. The Labour party machine will be active where as both Labour and Tory had minimalistic efforts in the European elections. It is easy to get sucked into the view that the Brexit party will triumphantly sweep elections in the future but one has to remember a GE might have double the turnout of European elections. The shallow foundations of the Brexit party are susceptible to a change in tide! I wouldn't have thought Farage will get the media support of the Brexit press he has in the last few months. The Brexit media (Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail, Daily Express and The Sun) delivered for the Brexit party. The support of this media can just as easily be taken away as it was provided for Farage in the European elections.
He should have said no, and let nature take its course. We may have ended up with a dozen UKIP MPs in 2015, and that would have meant there’d be more planning for life after a Leave vote than the none done by Cammo. A civil servant friend of mine said DC used to just laugh when people said leave might win.
Peter Hitchens is probably right that the only way to leave was via a govt with a majority having Leave in their manifesto
> https://twitter.com/heidiallen75/status/1132785329310720000?s=20
Onwards and downwards.
> As I have said before my view of things was already defeated right back at the start of the post referendum era. It is fanatics like you who have brought us to this sorry state.
>
> No Richard it is you and the people who voted Leave. Where we are today was entirely foreseeable. It is of course fine for people like you to say you are surprised at this outcome but unforgivable for those who might end up running the county.
>
> Now you may say, and I know this is your line, that whatever flavour of leave is better than remain, but this is a disaster and you set the process in motion.
>
> And you can't now blame the people who voted not to put us through this.
Edited. Just seen Toppings reply to Isam which makes my accusation unfair.
> In theory no. But in practice everything is on hold now until Con have elected a new leader.
>
> In her resignation speech May acknowledged she'd failed and new leadership was needed to move things forwards.
>
> Yes it would be beyond mad (and a rare and unnecessary cruelty) for Theresa to have anything further to do with this from an executive perspective.
Well she'll be rolling out the red carpet for Donald.... That should keep her busy enough!
> Bit annoyed with Ladbrokes who have settled the losing bets in the EU Parliamentary elections but are prevaricating on paying out on the winning ones, despite the final results being known for a few hours now.
>
>
>
> Skybet have already settled with no fuss.
>
> This though 🙈
>
> https://twitter.com/barrystanton44/status/1133032494440374274
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/skybethelp/status/1133036095581691904
>
>
>
> The personal touch
He stuck it on black? What an idiot. The smart money knew red was coming up.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions.
> > >
> > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > This crisis has been made by Leavers
> > >
> > > ++++++++++
> > >
> > > The crisis is made by both, obviously.
> > >
> > > The person for whom I have the most respect, in this whole crazy mess, is the MP for Eastbourne, Stephen Lloyd. A man willing to back a deal he felt was best for the country, even though it will cost him his career. The easy option for him would have been to be in favour of some unicorn, so he could say "Oh, I back Brexit, but not this Brexit." Instead he said, "Well, I may be a Remainer, but this is the right thing for the country." And he chose that path, even though it has resulted in the whip having been withdrawn, and it almost certainly means his deselection.
> > >
> > > Those (many) Labour MPs who profess to back Brexit, but who put Party over Country. You are part of the problem.
> > >
> > > Those (slightly fewer, but still numerous) Conservative MPs who see No Deal as achievable through suspending parliament and letting the clock run down. You too are part of the problem.
> > >
> > > I could go on.
> >
> > I think A Meeks was right when he said it would cause trouble to have Remainers vote for a Brexit opposed by Leavers. They can insist that we have a deal, but I don't think they can force a specific deal through that is opposed by Leavers.
> >
> > Leavers have to vote for a deal. And they have to be realistic and realise that to make a deal it has to be something the other side - i.e. the EU - can live with. They seem stuck in their delusion that the EU oppresses us which prevents then from agreeing any deal with the EU.
>
> Equating No Dealers with the majority of Leavers either inside or outside Parliament is another dishonest tactic. I do not claim that all Remainers are federalists like Williamglenn. Both are equally disingenuous claims.
You could be a "moron" for expressing a view you disagreed with. Perhaps best not to lecture others on how to conduct a debate?
> > @isam said:
>
> > As I have said before my view of things was already defeated right back at the start of the post referendum era. It is fanatics like you who have brought us to this sorry state.
>
> >
>
> > No Richard it is you and the people who voted Leave. Where we are today was entirely foreseeable. It is of course fine for people like you to say you are surprised at this outcome but unforgivable for those who might end up running the county.
>
> >
>
> > Now you may say, and I know this is your line, that whatever flavour of leave is better than remain, but this is a disaster and you set the process in motion.
>
> >
>
> > And you can't now blame the people who voted not to put us through this.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Really it was David Cameron who set the process in motion. He didn’t have to hold a referendum, and it was particularly unwise to do so if he couldn’t contemplate enacting one of the outcomes.
>
>
>
> Fully agreed! And exactly why parliament should not do a second referendum where it cannot contemplate enacting one of the outcomes - no deal.
>
> They can’t contemplate a deal either!
The deadlock can only be broken with a new vote. GE not gonna happen. So second referendum it is.
At their rate, they will finish counting after the first sitting of the new Parliament but maybe before Brexit
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions.
> > > >
> > > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > > This crisis has been made by Leavers
> > > >
> > > > ++++++++++
> > > >
> > > > The crisis is made by both, obviously.
> > > >
> > > > The person for whom I have the most respect, in this whole crazy mess, is the MP for Eastbourne, Stephen Lloyd. A man willing to back a deal he felt was best for the country, even though it will cost him his career. The easy option for him would have been to be in favour of some unicorn, so he could say "Oh, I back Brexit, but not this Brexit." Instead he said, "Well, I may be a Remainer, but this is the right thing for the country." And he chose that path, even though it has resulted in the whip having been withdrawn, and it almost certainly means his deselection.
> > > >
> > > > Those (many) Labour MPs who profess to back Brexit, but who put Party over Country. You are part of the problem.
> > > >
> > > > Those (slightly fewer, but still numerous) Conservative MPs who see No Deal as achievable through suspending parliament and letting the clock run down. You too are part of the problem.
> > > >
> > > > I could go on.
> > >
> > > I think A Meeks was right when he said it would cause trouble to have Remainers vote for a Brexit opposed by Leavers. They can insist that we have a deal, but I don't think they can force a specific deal through that is opposed by Leavers.
> > >
> > > Leavers have to vote for a deal. And they have to be realistic and realise that to make a deal it has to be something the other side - i.e. the EU - can live with. They seem stuck in their delusion that the EU oppresses us which prevents then from agreeing any deal with the EU.
> >
> > Equating No Dealers with the majority of Leavers either inside or outside Parliament is another dishonest tactic. I do not claim that all Remainers are federalists like Williamglenn. Both are equally disingenuous claims.
>
> You could be a "moron" for expressing a view you disagreed with. Perhaps best not to lecture others on how to conduct a debate?
Not for the first time your postings are incoherent. Drinking?
> In Ireland 2 MEPs have been elected so far. Out of 11
>
>
>
> At their rate, they will finish counting after the first sitting of the new Parliament but maybe before Brexit
>
> I think India counted ~500 million in less than 12 hours?
50 crore makes it sound more manageable.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/heidiallen75/status/1132785329310720000?s=20
>
> Onwards and downwards.
Looks like the World Grimacing Championships.
> Bit annoyed with Ladbrokes who have settled the losing bets in the EU Parliamentary elections but are prevaricating on paying out on the winning ones, despite the final results being known for a few hours now.
>
>
>
> Skybet have already settled with no fuss.
>
> This though 🙈
>
> https://twitter.com/barrystanton44/status/1133032494440374274
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/skybethelp/status/1133036095581691904
>
>
>
> The personal touch
When the fun stops, stop
On the 38th count joe blogs has finally reached the quota and been elected....
Of course the Irish will probably elect more independents proportionately to Brussels than any other EU member state. It’s one place where people do vote for candidates not parties - thanks mainly to STV. You can choose between several candidates from your party or none. Grieve, Francois or Gove on the one ballot paper - you decide which type of Tory you prefer.
> As I have said before my view of things was already defeated right back at the start of the post referendum era. It is fanatics like you who have brought us to this sorry state.
>
> No Richard it is you and the people who voted Leave. Where we are today was entirely foreseeable. It is of course fine for people like you to say you are surprised at this outcome but unforgivable for those who might end up running the county.
>
> Now you may say, and I know this is your line, that whatever flavour of leave is better than remain, but this is a disaster and you set the process in motion.
>
> And you can't now blame the people who voted not to put us through this.
>
>
> Really it was David Cameron who set the process in motion. He didn’t have to hold a referendum, and it was particularly unwise to do so if he couldn’t contemplate enacting one of the outcomes.
>
> I agree with his decision to hold the referendum; 4m people had effectively been disenfranchised.
>
> Thing is, voting to leave was always going to be a disaster but at some point you need to let people have their say.
>
> The 4m UKIP voters in 2015? The decision to hold a referendum had been made before they voted.
>
> He should have said no, and let nature take its course. We may have ended up with a dozen UKIP MPs in 2015, and that would have meant there’d be more planning for life after a Leave vote than the none done by Cammo. A civil servant friend of mine said DC used to just laugh when people said leave might win.
>
> Peter Hitchens is probably right that the only way to leave was via a govt with a majority having Leave in their manifesto
I find David Cameron's strategy in the 2015 election and that referendum commitment curious. He committed to a referendum on the Eu yet his strategy and ground game were deeply invested in Lib Dem held seats. Given the Lib Dems are pro-European I find his actions and decisions contradictory. The two main political parties have limited resources to target about 70 seats with mailshots, telephone canvassing and the like from party headquarters or affiliates. It therefore makes me wonder the validity of the claim that he had to offer the referendum on the EU as his ground strategy and centrally provided resources targeted LD seats and not the places UKIP might have made a breakthrough....
> In Ireland 2 MEPs have been elected so far. Out of 11
>
>
>
> At their rate, they will finish counting after the first sitting of the new Parliament but maybe before Brexit
>
> I think India counted ~500 million in less than 12 hours?
It's easy to count FPTP constituencies compared to STV.
> In Ireland 2 MEPs have been elected so far. Out of 11
>
> At their rate, they will finish counting after the first sitting of the new Parliament but maybe before Brexit
Complain about that, but, they are still counting in Oz. 2 seats yet to declare a winner there.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > > The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions.
> > > > >
> > > > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > > > This crisis has been made by Leavers
> > > > >
> > > > > ++++++++++
> > > > >
> > > > > The crisis is made by both, obviously.
> > > > >
> > > > > The person for whom I have the most respect, in this whole crazy mess, is the MP for Eastbourne, Stephen Lloyd. A man willing to back a deal he felt was best for the country, even though it will cost him his career. The easy option for him would have been to be in favour of some unicorn, so he could say "Oh, I back Brexit, but not this Brexit." Instead he said, "Well, I may be a Remainer, but this is the right thing for the country." And he chose that path, even though it has resulted in the whip having been withdrawn, and it almost certainly means his deselection.
> > > > >
> > > > > Those (many) Labour MPs who profess to back Brexit, but who put Party over Country. You are part of the problem.
> > > > >
> > > > > Those (slightly fewer, but still numerous) Conservative MPs who see No Deal as achievable through suspending parliament and letting the clock run down. You too are part of the problem.
> > > > >
> > > > > I could go on.
> > > >
> > > > I think A Meeks was right when he said it would cause trouble to have Remainers vote for a Brexit opposed by Leavers. They can insist that we have a deal, but I don't think they can force a specific deal through that is opposed by Leavers.
> > > >
> > > > Leavers have to vote for a deal. And they have to be realistic and realise that to make a deal it has to be something the other side - i.e. the EU - can live with. They seem stuck in their delusion that the EU oppresses us which prevents then from agreeing any deal with the EU.
> > >
> > > Equating No Dealers with the majority of Leavers either inside or outside Parliament is another dishonest tactic. I do not claim that all Remainers are federalists like Williamglenn. Both are equally disingenuous claims.
> >
> > You could be a "moron" for expressing a view you disagreed with. Perhaps best not to lecture others on how to conduct a debate?
>
> Not for the first time your postings are incoherent. Drinking?
An autocorrect fail that I missed. "could be" should read "called me", but I see that you didn't miss a chance to be needlessly insulting.
> Ladbrokes have paid out on EU percentages results. Betfair still dawdling.
Yep. Just paid me too. Good but I had to chase.
Contemplating sending Betfair a stropagram.
> Ladbrokes have paid out on EU percentages results. Betfair still dawdling.
I wonder if they do that hoping successful punters will get tired of waiting and cash out - so losing a few pounds.
> Why then is Farage complaining this evening about Tory candidates voting for the WA?
>
>
>
> Because he can. By not delivering brexit we've given Nige the initiative to push his own agenda of no deal. The dereliction of duty by our Parliament is behind this. Nothing else.
I actually think Parliament is doing its job. It is not rubber stamping things at the moment. Given the enduring nature of the WA, better to get it right than regret for eternity! The reasons for not passing the WA are various and complicated but the very fact we would be giving up the best deal being in the EU for a lower status with no democratic pathways to advocate our countries agenda is a valid reason for Brexiteer and remainer's not voting for it. I believe the only way out of this is a three way referendum on No Deal, May's Deal or Remain.
> > @MaxPB said:
> > Why then is Farage complaining this evening about Tory candidates voting for the WA?
> >
> >
> >
> > Because he can. By not delivering brexit we've given Nige the initiative to push his own agenda of no deal. The dereliction of duty by our Parliament is behind this. Nothing else.
>
> I actually think Parliament is doing its job. It is not rubber stamping things at the moment. Given the enduring nature of the WA, better to get it right than regret for eternity! The reasons for not passing the WA are various and complicated but the very fact we would be giving up the best deal being in the EU for a lower status with no democratic pathways to advocate our countries agenda is a valid reason for Brexiteer and remainer's not voting for it. I believe the only way out of this is a three way referendum on No Deal, May's Deal or Remain.
Agreed - this is the fairest way forward.
> > @Peter_the_Punter said:
> > Ladbrokes have paid out on EU percentages results. Betfair still dawdling.
>
> Yep. Just paid me too. Good but I had to chase.
>
> Contemplating sending Betfair a stropagram.
Did you also benefit from advice given by the incurably modest TSE on the Conservatives performance?
Somebody should give him a hat-tip, as he is unlikely to mention the matter himself.
> > @Peter_the_Punter said:
> > Ladbrokes have paid out on EU percentages results. Betfair still dawdling.
>
> I wonder if they do that hoping successful punters will get tired of waiting and cash out - so losing a few pounds.
Doesn't explain why the exchange markets are still open, and even more bizarrely there's £1k at 1.02 on the LDs to get 15-20% of the vote!
Forgot I ended up backing the Tories to finish fifth at 5/1 as well the 12/1 on the Tories polling sub 10%.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/05/12/is-this-expectations-from-the-conservatives-or-are-they-really-going-to-finish-sixth-in-the-euros/
Big shout out to Tissue Price and Alastair Meeks for their advice on the spreads.
UK 36.9% - second highest for the UK after 38.5% in 2004
EU overall 50.9% - first time EU turnout has gone up, after 7 elections on the trot where turnout has gone down. Also the first time turnout has exceeded 50.0% since 1994.
> In Ireland 2 MEPs have been elected so far. Out of 11
>
> At their rate, they will finish counting after the first sitting of the new Parliament but maybe before Brexit
In fairness, they also had local council elections, a referendum on divorce, and mayoral elections to count, before the Euros!
Not that I see it as being popular, or that a desire to get a deal done will see it done.
But remember - Gove is in favour of FoM, so for him there are no flaws in such a policy, it is simply a variant of FoM. Is he, in essence going to be advocating the soft Brexit option? How much do Tory brexiteers (as opposed to Labour ones) really care about restrictions on FoM?
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1133112107040423941
Rory is pretty challenged right enough.
> https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1133110020202278914
>
>
>
> In fairness to Hunt, I am surprised that any of the candidates deemed to have a chance would take this stance, so he has unblandified himself to some degree.
>
> Not that I see it as being popular, or that a desire to get a deal done will see it done.
It is possible that some of the Tory leadership candidates are positioning themselves for the contest after this one... (if they don't win this one). If they're going to stand, they might as well offer something distinctive.
So many people are talking about it being necessary for the Tories to embrace no deal to see off BXP. But destroying the country has electoral consequences too...
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1133110020202278914
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > In fairness to Hunt, I am surprised that any of the candidates deemed to have a chance would take this stance, so he has unblandified himself to some degree.
>
> >
>
> > Not that I see it as being popular, or that a desire to get a deal done will see it done.
>
>
>
> It is possible that some of the Tory leadership candidates are positioning themselves for the contest after this one... (if they don't win this one). If they're going to stand, they might as well offer something distinctive.
>
>
>
> So many people are talking about it being necessary for the Tories to embrace no deal to see off BXP. But destroying the country has electoral consequences too...
>
> Yes, but the Tory party has probably crossed the rubicon on that front - they are too far down the no deal road to turn back, since they have had half a damn year to Brexit and not done so. Now they will pursue anything that looks like a tough Brexit, so long as it is not that which they have rejected already, and hope like hell that works for the country. Somehow.
Half a damn year? There's been THREE YEARS since the referendum already.
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1133112107040423941
>
>
>
> I don't think it is as useful as people might wish to believe, as I don't think we the public care as much about authenticity, or getting out to normal people and all that, as we might claim we do. That said, it is at least an interesting approach to take.
Agree. He needs to get some attention somehow, this has got to be worth a shot.
> Interesting intervention from Gove on EU settled status as well. I see there are some people pointing out the apparent flaws in his policy (basically allows any EU resident to settle here).
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> But remember - Gove is in favour of FoM, so for him there are no flaws in such a policy, it is simply a variant of FoM. Is he, in essence going to be advocating the soft Brexit option? How much do Tory brexiteers (as opposed to Labour ones) really care about restrictions on FoM?
He's differentiating and immunising himself from the accusations of racism, little Englanderism etc that are routinely thrown at leavers. It's a smart move that makes him stand out in a crowded field whatever the practicalities of it are.
Gove and Hunt as the final two will be fine by me, and plausible.
And even if they don't want no deal, we seem unlikely to get a new deal and even Hunt and Javid said no to the deal being softened further, so what next?
I think the ERG will be in for a shock if they do anything to enable Corbyn as PM.