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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first consequence of the Euros – LAB appears to be edging

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    > @anothernick said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > Asking people to vote and then ignoring their vote is not democracy.
    > >
    > > Nobody has ignored their vote.
    > >
    > > We have spent 3 years of blood an treasure. Institutions have been attacked. Careers have been destroyed. The entire fabric of society is under strain.
    > >
    > > Voting is a continued expression of belief in democracy. I don't really think you favour the alternatives...
    >
    > The idea that voting is anti-democratic is truly Orwellian.
    >
    > As someone said, a democracy that cannot change its mind ceases to be a democracy.

    Voting repeatedly until you get the answer you want, as the EU often does, is democratic?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,808
    Mr. Nick, the retort to that is that a democracy that does not respect the will of the electorate isn't a democracy.

    Excitingly, all our options are varying types of bad and political ructions are certain. A referendum may not be the worst way to proceed.

    But politicians should think very carefully and then actually support *something*. Right now they're failing utterly by opposing everything.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084
    For Labour it's all a bit "too little too late".

    For the Tories it ridiculous in the literal sense of the word. There is something so utterly absurd in seeing so many unqualified and unserious people having delusions that they are adequate material to lead the country. They won't even be able to lead the Conservative Party.

    This time the Tories deserve a kicking they wont come back from in a generation.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    The beers are on Prince William ....
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > We don't vote fir a government in a General Election. We vote for individual MPs to represent us.
    > >
    > > And if no government can be formed, we vote for them again.
    > >
    > > Democracy is not insulted.
    >
    > The MPs have already taken their seats. Democracy has been satisfied. The equivalent here is leaving the EU and then having another vote. Doing it again without having left is not democracy no matter how much you hypocrites might like to pretend it is.
    >
    > And in case you missed it your losers vote choice got about 1/6th of the electorate to vote for it on Thursday. <

    ++++

    That's all well and good, and I agree on the principles, but Scott is right that we are mired, deadlocked, and snookered, so there may be no alternative.

    We can't exit with No Deal as there isn't the votes for it in parliament. MPs would, I think, ultimately VONC the govt if they tried it.

    We can't exit with a deal as we've tried that a zillion times,

    We can't revoke as it would be suicide for any party.

    What's left? Or do you have some brilliant wheeze?!

    As a resigned Remainer I'd have been content with EFTA or EEA (isn't that what you prefer?). Tragically that seems to have disappeared.

    So what is your solution?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    Byronic said:
    Byronic said:
    Looks as if the Tory party is genuinely finished. When it’s erstwhile supporters are actively and gleefully willing its destruction then things must be terminal.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    edited May 2019
    > @isam said:
    > We don't vote fir a government in a General Election. We vote for individual MPs to represent us.
    >
    > And if no government can be formed, we vote for them again.
    >
    > Democracy is not insulted.
    >
    >
    > Appalling analogy.
    >
    > A deal was done, and Remainer MPs who won their seats on a pledge of implementing the result, voted it down.

    **********************************************************************************************

    Democracy is not an end in itself. It isn't even a simple concept. Some people treat it as if it were a god or totem.

    Democracy is a means to an end. The end is enabling a change of power without violent revolution. That's it.

    It's really pointless and boring having religious arguments about "democracy".

    It is much more useful to discuss ways of getting out of this mess without violence erupting, when certain individuals seem to be keen on promoting it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political call are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.



    They never learn...

    Someone sent me this... is it accurate?


    When I am made Supreme Commander and rule all Englanderos with a fist of iron, my first decree will be to ensure that all election maps include Northern Ireland.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political class are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
    > >
    > > They never learn...
    > >
    >
    > Such a thumping 12% majority that it took them to a grand total of 32% of the votes cast, 35% if you include UKIP.
    >
    > Some way from a majority.

    I'm sure it was actually a vote in favour of More Europe. It always is.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Barnesian said:

    > @isam said:

    > We don't vote fir a government in a General Election. We vote for individual MPs to represent us.

    >

    > And if no government can be formed, we vote for them again.

    >

    > Democracy is not insulted.

    >

    >

    > Appalling analogy.

    >

    > A deal was done, and Remainer MPs who won their seats on a pledge of implementing the result, voted it down.



    **********************************************************************************************



    Democracy is not an end in itself. It isn't even a simple concept. Some people treat it as if it were a god or totem.



    Democracy is a means to an end. The end is enabling a change of power without violent revolution. That's it.



    It's really pointless and boring having religious arguments about "democracy".



    It is much more useful to discuss ways of getting out of this mess without violence erupting, when certain individuals seem to be keen on promoting it.

    The people who refuse to condemn the milkshake throwers?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572
    > @williamglenn said:
    > Eileen Paisley, widow of Ian Paisley, says that a united Ireland would be acceptable if there were freedom of religion.
    >
    > https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/united-ireland-acceptable-to-eileen-paisley-if-there-is-freedom-of-religion-38149393.html
    >
    > <i>"It is a big question. If we go right back to the beginning, the dividing of Ireland. The people or Ireland, north, south, east and west, I think are a great people.
    >
    > "No matter what part of Ireland a person is from.. they are a fellow country man or woman.
    >
    > "I just wonder why it had to be divided at that time and I think that was the wrong division. It is too big an issue for me to pontificate on."</i>

    Kind of ridiculous given there has been freedom of religion since the 1922 Constitution. If that had been the main stumbling block then Ireland would have been reunited decades ago.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    > @Barnesian said:
    > > @isam said:
    > > We don't vote fir a government in a General Election. We vote for individual MPs to represent us.
    > >
    > > And if no government can be formed, we vote for them again.
    > >
    > > Democracy is not insulted.
    > >
    > >
    > > Appalling analogy.
    > >
    > > A deal was done, and Remainer MPs who won their seats on a pledge of implementing the result, voted it down.
    >
    > **********************************************************************************************
    >
    > Democracy is not an end in itself. It isn't even a simple concept. Some people treat it as if it were a god or totem.
    >
    > Democracy is a means to an end. The end is enabling a change of power without violent revolution. That's it.
    >
    > It's really pointless and boring having religious arguments about "democracy".
    >
    > It is much more useful to discuss ways of getting out of this mess without violence erupting, when certain individuals seem to be keen on promoting it.

    The end is to ensure that people you don't like don't get to decide things.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082

    Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.

    Or am I misreading?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    > @isam said:
    > > @isam said:
    >
    > > > @isam said:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > I > @isam
    >
    > > > > Asking them to vote, while promising to implement that vote - then asking them to vote again, without having implemented that vote - is very clearly a severe insult to democracy.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > > If we vote in a GE and no government can be formed, we vote again
    >
    > > > > That is not, and cannot be, a severe insult to democracy
    >
    > > > > You know this, but continue to argue for no apparent reason
    >
    > > > > We voted to leave, and our PM agreed a deal with the EU.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > > That we got from those facts to not being able to leave, after we were promised by the PM who called the referendum that the final decision would be ours in a once in a generation vote, is an insult to democracy.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > Complain to Jacob Rees-Mogg, not to us.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > If only the ERG had voted against the deal, it would have passed by a huge margin
    >
    > > Oh well - cc in whatever other Tories you think are an affront or whatever.
    >
    > > The whole thing was just a Tory wheeze to try to boost their public support by a few points. They've greatly damaged the country and probably destroyed themselves into the bargain. I suggest you complain to the people who are to blame for this nightmare.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > I’ll just vote for BXP like the other millions
    >
    >
    >
    > Please do. Nothing could please me more than half the Tory party carrying on voting for the Brexit Party for the rest of their lives!
    >
    > Only once voted Tory in my life, for Goldsmith as Mayor

    You know what they say ...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    > @Sean_F said:
    >
    > I'm sure it was actually a vote in favour of More Europe. It always is.

    The referendum was marked by people who wanted a more European Britain voting for people promising a more Global Britain.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    > @rottenborough said:
    > https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1133035196507447297
    >
    >
    >
    > Somebody make this stop now.

    There's nothing wrong with having 25 candidates to start with, as long as most of them have the good sense to drop out after the first round when they see how little support they have.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    #CorbynGoesIGo is trending!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    edited May 2019
    > @isam said:
    > > @isam said:
    >
    > > We don't vote fir a government in a General Election. We vote for individual MPs to represent us.
    >
    >
    > > And if no government can be formed, we vote for them again.
    >
    > > Democracy is not insulted.
    >
    > > Appalling analogy.
    >
    > > A deal was done, and Remainer MPs who won their seats on a pledge of implementing the result, voted it down.
    > **********************************************************************************************
    >
    > Democracy is not an end in itself. It isn't even a simple concept. Some people treat it as if it were a god or totem.
    >
    > Democracy is a means to an end. The end is enabling a change of power without violent revolution. That's it.
    >

    > It's really pointless and boring having religious arguments about "democracy".
    >

    > It is much more useful to discuss ways of getting out of this mess without violence erupting, when certain individuals seem to be keen on promoting it.
    *******************************************************************************
    > The people who refuse to condemn the milkshake throwers?

    ***************************************************************************************

    I was thinking about the person who talked about taking up his rifle - and then said he was joking when pressed about it. But I condemn the milkshake throwers. That's common assault and they should be brought before the law. I think they were. People who think it's OK to throw milkshakes should think again. It's a slippery slope.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    > @viewcode said:
    > Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political call are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
    >
    >
    >
    > They never learn...
    >
    > Someone sent me this... is it accurate?
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > When I am made Supreme Commander and rule all Englanderos with a fist of iron, my first decree will be to ensure that all election maps include Northern Ireland.

    It looks like it is yes.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Byronic said:

    OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref







    Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.



    Or am I misreading?
    Is Seamus on annual leave?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    > @Byronic said:
    > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref
    >
    > twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082
    >
    > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
    >
    > Or am I misreading?

    I'm still unclear. Is this a vote on the final deal or the withdrawal agreement? If it's the former, then we need to pass the WA in any case. If it's the latter, surely it's just a re-run of the first vote since the final deal will be negotiated afterwards (and I assume will need an additional vote?).
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    AndyJS said:

    35% voted for No Deal, yet Farage believes he has a mandate for it.

    You ignore the Tory vote share of course.

    Blair and Cameron won majorities on about that vote share - did they care much about the 65 per cent who didn’t vote for them? Thatcher didn’t much care that 55 per cent of voters hated her government!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    > > Eileen Paisley, widow of Ian Paisley, says that a united Ireland would be acceptable if there were freedom of religion.
    > >
    > > https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/united-ireland-acceptable-to-eileen-paisley-if-there-is-freedom-of-religion-38149393.html
    > >
    > > <i>"It is a big question. If we go right back to the beginning, the dividing of Ireland. The people or Ireland, north, south, east and west, I think are a great people.
    > >
    > > "No matter what part of Ireland a person is from.. they are a fellow country man or woman.
    > >
    > > "I just wonder why it had to be divided at that time and I think that was the wrong division. It is too big an issue for me to pontificate on."</i>
    >
    > Kind of ridiculous given there has been freedom of religion since the 1922 Constitution. If that had been the main stumbling block then Ireland would have been reunited decades ago.

    Not to mention the currently existing constraints on people in Northern Ireland on religious grounds that don't exist in the South (abortion, homosexuality, bestiality etc).
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political class are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
    > > >
    > > > They never learn...
    > > >
    > >
    > > Such a thumping 12% majority that it took them to a grand total of 32% of the votes cast, 35% if you include UKIP.
    > >
    > > Some way from a majority.
    >
    > I'm sure it was actually a vote in favour of More Europe. It always is.

    No it wasn't that either.

    As you well know.

    But it does show that the country is pretty much divided, that while there was a small majority to leave in 2016, it is possible (I put it no higher) that there is now a small majority to stay.

    Whatever the case, it would be absurd to claim that it was a vote for the most extreme form of Brexit. Rather the parties should be trying to come up with a compromise that reflects the fact that the country is divided. They seem to be doing the opposite.

    If that is the way they are going then a fresh referendum may - for all the difficulties - be the only way out. If it happens I want to have the full consequences of each option properly spelt out. I also want the EU to spell out clearly what they will or will not do in each option rather than listen to fairy stories from people with an agenda here. Fat chance I imagine. But that's what ought to happen so that we don't get people claiming that Brexit means X or Y or Z or that Remain means A, B or C.

    It's about time we got a bit of honesty in the Europe debate rather than the endless bollocks we've been subjected to.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    > @RobD said:
    > > @anothernick said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > Asking people to vote and then ignoring their vote is not democracy.
    > > >
    > > > Nobody has ignored their vote.
    > > >
    > > > We have spent 3 years of blood an treasure. Institutions have been attacked. Careers have been destroyed. The entire fabric of society is under strain.
    > > >
    > > > Voting is a continued expression of belief in democracy. I don't really think you favour the alternatives...
    > >
    > > The idea that voting is anti-democratic is truly Orwellian.
    > >
    > > As someone said, a democracy that cannot change its mind ceases to be a democracy.
    >
    > Voting repeatedly until you get the answer you want, as the EU often does, is democratic?

    It is to remainiacs

    Just look at the map of results by region.

    The people have spoken (Excluding Scotland) - just fecking get on with leaving.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    > @Byronic said:
    > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref
    >
    > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082
    >
    > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
    >
    > Or am I misreading?

    You are. That was all about a GE

    The whole referendum thing is predicated on no GE and having an agreement.

    Well we have an agreement - which he keeps voting down (even though there is nothing in the WA that his Shadow Brexit team would seek to change)

    He has no intention of pushing for a referendum. He just wants a GE
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @rottenborough said:
    > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref
    >
    >
    >
    > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
    >
    >
    >
    > Or am I misreading?
    >
    > Is Seamus on annual leave?

    More waffle. I wouldn't trust him as far as I could throw him.

    Last week May tried to introduce into Parliament a WA with a pretty clear commitment to a vote on it and Corbyn said no.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572
    > @Byronic said:
    > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > We don't vote fir a government in a General Election. We vote for individual MPs to represent us.
    > > >
    > > > And if no government can be formed, we vote for them again.
    > > >
    > > > Democracy is not insulted.
    > >
    > > The MPs have already taken their seats. Democracy has been satisfied. The equivalent here is leaving the EU and then having another vote. Doing it again without having left is not democracy no matter how much you hypocrites might like to pretend it is.
    > >
    > > And in case you missed it your losers vote choice got about 1/6th of the electorate to vote for it on Thursday. <
    >
    > ++++
    >
    > That's all well and good, and I agree on the principles, but Scott is right that we are mired, deadlocked, and snookered, so there may be no alternative.
    >
    > We can't exit with No Deal as there isn't the votes for it in parliament. MPs would, I think, ultimately VONC the govt if they tried it.
    >
    > We can't exit with a deal as we've tried that a zillion times,
    >
    > We can't revoke as it would be suicide for any party.
    >
    > What's left? Or do you have some brilliant wheeze?!
    >
    > As a resigned Remainer I'd have been content with EFTA or EEA (isn't that what you prefer?). Tragically that seems to have disappeared.
    >
    > So what is your solution?

    That is my solution - or at least to try it since it hasn't been tried yet. Around 1/6th of the electorate voted for the losers vote. Another 1/6th voted for a No Deal Brexit. That leaves 2/3rds of the electorate who are apparently not fanatics.

    We need a compromise that has us leaving but retaining a close relationship with the EU. We cannot put that in a referendum at present so to my mind the best way forward is a new PM who will make that case and then if necessary call a GE to get a Parliament that will pass it.

    The alternative is perpetual chaos because another referendum certainly won't end anything.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2019
    @Chris


    You know what they say ...


    I don’t think there’s any shame in being a Tory, I’m just not one myself
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,808
    Mr. Isam, it was this morning, as was CorbynOut. Quite the trending split.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @RobD said:

    "Is it? She's on her way out after all."

    ....................................................................................

    The more so then. The Prime Minister has in her final months in office to show dignity, responsibility, poise and integrity.

    The can stops in Downing Street. As the leader she must openly take responsibility for this disaster. Others will, like she did last week, be shedding tears for a cause they believe in and have worked very hard for over the years.

    A leader leads in good times and bad. Get the lectern out !!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    > @brendan16 said:
    > 35% voted for No Deal, yet Farage believes he has a mandate for it.
    >
    > You ignore the Tory vote share of course.
    >
    > Blair and Cameron won majorities on about that vote share - did they care much about the 65 per cent who didn’t vote for them? Thatcher didn’t much care that 55 per cent of voters hated her government!
    ******************************************************************************************
    That's democracy for you.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @Sean_F said:
    > > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > > Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political class are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
    > > > >
    > > > > They never learn...
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > Such a thumping 12% majority that it took them to a grand total of 32% of the votes cast, 35% if you include UKIP.
    > > >
    > > > Some way from a majority.
    > >
    > > I'm sure it was actually a vote in favour of More Europe. It always is.
    >
    > No it wasn't that either.
    >
    > As you well know.
    >
    > But it does show that the country is pretty much divided, that while there was a small majority to leave in 2016, it is possible (I put it no higher) that there is now a small majority to stay.
    >
    > Whatever the case, it would be absurd to claim that it was a vote for the most extreme form of Brexit. Rather the parties should be trying to come up with a compromise that reflects the fact that the country is divided. They seem to be doing the opposite.
    >
    > If that is the way they are going then a fresh referendum may - for all the difficulties - be the only way out. If it happens I want to have the full consequences of each option properly spelt out. I also want the EU to spell out clearly what they will or will not do in each option rather than listen to fairy stories from people with an agenda here. Fat chance I imagine. But that's what ought to happen so that we don't get people claiming that Brexit means X or Y or Z or that Remain means A, B or C.
    >
    > It's about time we got a bit of honesty in the Europe debate rather than the endless bollocks we've been subjected to.
    >
    >

    Our political class don't do details.

    And the country doesn't want honesty.

    That applies to everything not just Brexit.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Scott_P said:
    What on earth is Rory doing in McDonalds and Costa coffee in Barking? Afghanistan was probably safer!

    Presumably the person he is meeting drove from somewhere in solidly Brexit voting south Essex? Was it Mark Francois?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @oxfordsimon said:
    > > @Byronic said:
    > > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082
    > >
    > > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
    > >
    > > Or am I misreading?
    >
    > You are. That was all about a GE
    >
    > The whole referendum thing is predicated on no GE and having an agreement.
    >
    > Well we have an agreement - which he keeps voting down (even though there is nothing in the WA that his Shadow Brexit team would seek to change)
    >
    > He has no intention of pushing for a referendum. He just wants a GE<

    ++++

    He's previously said he wants a 2nd ref if there is no deal, now he's finally said, albeit in a whisper, that there should be a 2nd ref if there IS a deal, as well.

    It's clearly been gouged out of him by McDonnell, but he has said it.

    Seamus will be fuming.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @JackW said:
    > The beers are on Prince William ....

    It is about time David Cameron put his hand in his pocket.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited May 2019
    > @Byronic said:
    > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref
    >
    > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082
    >
    > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
    >
    > Or am I misreading?

    ---------------------------

    Key thing, I think, is that Corbyn has completely taken over the Deal space. If you want a somewhat sensible Brexit, you need Corbyn. He doesn't have to sign up to a Tory agenda now because the new leader of that party will be a No Dealer or only go through the motions of a negotiation with the EU.

    + Edit. So self declared "moderate Leavers" on this forum, such as RCS and David L are now full on Corbynistas!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > @Byronic said:
    > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > > We don't vote fir a government in a General Election. We vote for individual MPs to represent us.
    > > > >
    > > > > And if no government can be formed, we vote for them again.
    > > > >
    > > > > Democracy is not insulted.
    > > >
    > > > The MPs have already taken their seats. Democracy has been satisfied. The equivalent here is leaving the EU and then having another vote. Doing it again without having left is not democracy no matter how much you hypocrites might like to pretend it is.
    > > >
    > > > And in case you missed it your losers vote choice got about 1/6th of the electorate to vote for it on Thursday. <
    > >
    > > ++++
    > >
    > > That's all well and good, and I agree on the principles, but Scott is right that we are mired, deadlocked, and snookered, so there may be no alternative.
    > >
    > > We can't exit with No Deal as there isn't the votes for it in parliament. MPs would, I think, ultimately VONC the govt if they tried it.
    > >
    > > We can't exit with a deal as we've tried that a zillion times,
    > >
    > > We can't revoke as it would be suicide for any party.
    > >
    > > What's left? Or do you have some brilliant wheeze?!
    > >
    > > As a resigned Remainer I'd have been content with EFTA or EEA (isn't that what you prefer?). Tragically that seems to have disappeared.
    > >
    > > So what is your solution?
    >
    > That is my solution - or at least to try it since it hasn't been tried yet. Around 1/6th of the electorate voted for the losers vote. Another 1/6th voted for a No Deal Brexit. That leaves 2/3rds of the electorate who are apparently not fanatics.
    >
    > We need a compromise that has us leaving but retaining a close relationship with the EU. We cannot put that in a referendum at present so to my mind the best way forward is a new PM who will make that case and then if necessary call a GE to get a Parliament that will pass it.
    >
    > The alternative is perpetual chaos because another referendum certainly won't end anything.

    None of the Tory candidates currently on offer (other than possibly Rory Stewart) seem intent on seeking such a compromise.

    So it looks as if we'll get chaos instead.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Byronic said:

    > @oxfordsimon said:

    > > @Byronic said:

    > > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref

    > >

    > >



    > >

    > > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.

    > >

    > > Or am I misreading?

    >

    > You are. That was all about a GE

    >

    > The whole referendum thing is predicated on no GE and having an agreement.

    >

    > Well we have an agreement - which he keeps voting down (even though there is nothing in the WA that his Shadow Brexit team would seek to change)

    >

    > He has no intention of pushing for a referendum. He just wants a GE<



    ++++



    He's previously said he wants a 2nd ref if there is no deal, now he's finally said, albeit in a whisper, that there should be a 2nd ref if there IS a deal, as well.



    It's clearly been gouged out of him by McDonnell, but he has said it.



    Seamus will be fuming.
    Wait until Len comes back from the garden centre and logs on...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    > @FF43 said:
    > > @Byronic said:
    > > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082
    > >
    > > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
    > >
    > > Or am I misreading?
    >
    > ---------------------------
    >
    > Key thing, I think, is that Corbyn has completely taken over the Deal space. If you want a somewhat sensible Brexit, you need Corbyn. He doesn't have to sign up to a Tory agenda now because the new leader of that party will be a No Dealer or only go through the motions of a negotiation with the EU.
    >
    > + Edit. So self declared "moderate Leavers" on this forum, such as RCS and David L are now full on Corbynistas!

    Doesn't any deal require the WA to be signed as it is?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    FF43 said:

    > @Byronic said:

    > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref

    >

    >



    >

    > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.

    >

    > Or am I misreading?



    ---------------------------



    Key thing, I think, is that Corbyn has completely taken over the Deal space. If you want a somewhat sensible Brexit, you need Corbyn. He doesn't have to sign up to a Tory agenda now because the new leader of that party will be a No Dealer or only go through the motions of a negotiation with the EU.



    + Edit. So self declared "moderate Leavers" on this forum, such as RCS and David L are now full on Corbynistas!
    A very valid point. Once a No Dealer is leader of the Tories, the only party for Leave with a WA is Corbyn's Labour, albeit with a confirmatory referendum. It is a unique political space.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Chris said:

    ...constraints on people in Northern Ireland on religious grounds that don't exist in the South (abortion, homosexuality, bestiality etc).

    Bestiality?????

    Bread, Eggs, Milk, Squick?

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    > @RobD said:
    > > @FF43 said:
    > > > @Byronic said:
    > > > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref
    > > >
    > > > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082
    > > >
    > > > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
    > > >
    > > > Or am I misreading?
    > >
    > > ---------------------------
    > >
    > > Key thing, I think, is that Corbyn has completely taken over the Deal space. If you want a somewhat sensible Brexit, you need Corbyn. He doesn't have to sign up to a Tory agenda now because the new leader of that party will be a No Dealer or only go through the motions of a negotiation with the EU.
    > >
    > > + Edit. So self declared "moderate Leavers" on this forum, such as RCS and David L are now full on Corbynistas!
    >
    > Doesn't any deal require the WA to be signed as it is?

    Sure.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    > @Byronic said:

    > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref

    >

    >



    >

    > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.

    >

    > Or am I misreading?



    ---------------------------



    Key thing, I think, is that Corbyn has completely taken over the Deal space. If you want a somewhat sensible Brexit, you need Corbyn. He doesn't have to sign up to a Tory agenda now because the new leader of that party will be a No Dealer or only go through the motions of a negotiation with the EU.



    + Edit. So self declared "moderate Leavers" on this forum, such as RCS and David L are now full on Corbynistas!
    A very valid point. Once a No Dealer is leader of the Tories, the only party for Leave with a WA is Corbyn's Labour, albeit with a confirmatory referendum. It is a unique political space.
    Are any Tories actually proposing leaving without a deal rather than trying to get a deal but leaving without if Oct 31 comes along without one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:

    >
    > That is my solution - or at least to try it since it hasn't been tried yet. Around 1/6th of the electorate voted for the losers vote. Another 1/6th voted for a No Deal Brexit. That leaves 2/3rds of the electorate who are apparently not fanatics.
    >
    > We need a compromise that has us leaving but retaining a close relationship with the EU. We cannot put that in a referendum at present so to my mind the best way forward is a new PM who will make that case and then if necessary call a GE to get a Parliament that will pass it.
    >
    > The alternative is perpetual chaos because another referendum certainly won't end anything. <

    +++++

    But that is just fantasy politics. It's not on offer, practically, and the clock is ticking fast. No politician is talking of this.

    We need a PRACTICAL solution that can actually be done before Oct 31. Even a referendum is difficult - practically - tho I think the EU would offer us an extension if we took that route (however unpalatable it is, democratically)
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    Pe> @glw said:
    > What happens if there's a 52/48 remain win followed within a year or two later by the election of a Brexit Party government?
    >
    > It's quite possible that the next government, or the one after, will put a commitment in their manifesto to reverse whatever is the current state of play. We could be ping-ponging between Leaving and Remaining in the EU for many years to come.
    Perhaps the answer is now for the new PM to meet Farage and agree a coupon election where the Tories don't stand in areas where the BP got over 40% and the BP don't stand anywhere else, each candidate could be given a letter of endorsement signed by both.
    If Labour, the LDs and SNP don't do the same then this electoral pact could win a majority under FPTP against a divided opposition, enough to push Brexit through and end 70 year old Corbyn's chances of ever becoming PM.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > > @Byronic said:
    > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > > > We don't vote fir a government in a General Election. We vote for individual MPs to represent us.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > And if no government can be formed, we vote for them again.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Democracy is not insulted.
    > > > >
    > > > > The MPs have already taken their seats. Democracy has been satisfied. The equivalent here is leaving the EU and then having another vote. Doing it again without having left is not democracy no matter how much you hypocrites might like to pretend it is.
    > > > >
    > > > > And in case you missed it your losers vote choice got about 1/6th of the electorate to vote for it on Thursday. <
    > > >
    > > > ++++
    > > >
    > > > That's all well and good, and I agree on the principles, but Scott is right that we are mired, deadlocked, and snookered, so there may be no alternative.
    > > >
    > > > We can't exit with No Deal as there isn't the votes for it in parliament. MPs would, I think, ultimately VONC the govt if they tried it.
    > > >
    > > > We can't exit with a deal as we've tried that a zillion times,
    > > >
    > > > We can't revoke as it would be suicide for any party.
    > > >
    > > > What's left? Or do you have some brilliant wheeze?!
    > > >
    > > > As a resigned Remainer I'd have been content with EFTA or EEA (isn't that what you prefer?). Tragically that seems to have disappeared.
    > > >
    > > > So what is your solution?
    > >
    > > That is my solution - or at least to try it since it hasn't been tried yet. Around 1/6th of the electorate voted for the losers vote. Another 1/6th voted for a No Deal Brexit. That leaves 2/3rds of the electorate who are apparently not fanatics.
    > >
    > > We need a compromise that has us leaving but retaining a close relationship with the EU. We cannot put that in a referendum at present so to my mind the best way forward is a new PM who will make that case and then if necessary call a GE to get a Parliament that will pass it.
    > >
    > > The alternative is perpetual chaos because another referendum certainly won't end anything.
    >
    > None of the Tory candidates currently on offer (other than possibly Rory Stewart) seem intent on seeking such a compromise.
    >
    > So it looks as if we'll get chaos instead.

    I am holding out faint hope that Gove might be the one to cut the Gordion Knot
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    > @viewcode said:
    > ...constraints on people in Northern Ireland on religious grounds that don't exist in the South (abortion, homosexuality, bestiality etc).
    >
    > Bestiality?????
    >
    > Bread, Eggs, Milk, Squick?

    I may be wrong about that.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @rottenborough said:
    > > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Or am I misreading?
    > >
    > > Is Seamus on annual leave?
    >
    > More waffle. I wouldn't trust him as far as I could throw him.
    >
    > Last week May tried to introduce into Parliament a WA with a pretty clear commitment to a vote on it and Corbyn said no.

    If that was what she really wanted, she should have let Corbyn take the credit for proposing it, and just got on with it. All a matter of vanity and glory, I fear.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @isam:
    >
    >
    > Key thing, I think, is that Corbyn has completely taken over the Deal space. If you want a somewhat sensible Brexit, you need Corbyn. He doesn't have to sign up to a Tory agenda now because the new leader of that party will be a No Dealer or only go through the motions of a negotiation with the EU.
    >
    >
    >
    > + Edit. So self declared "moderate Leavers" on this forum, such as RCS and David L are now full on Corbynistas!
    >
    > A very valid point. Once a No Dealer is leader of the Tories, the only party for Leave with a WA is Corbyn's Labour, albeit with a confirmatory referendum. It is a unique political space.
    >
    > Are any Tories actually proposing leaving without a deal rather than trying to get a deal but leaving without if Oct 31 comes along without one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM<

    ++++

    Yes. Esther McVey. Outright No Dealer.

    https://twitter.com/BrexitHome/status/1133042966640103424
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    > @isam said:
    > > @Byronic said:
    >
    > > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref
    >
    > >
    >
    > > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082
    >
    >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Or am I misreading?
    >
    >
    >
    > ---------------------------
    >
    >
    >
    > Key thing, I think, is that Corbyn has completely taken over the Deal space. If you want a somewhat sensible Brexit, you need Corbyn. He doesn't have to sign up to a Tory agenda now because the new leader of that party will be a No Dealer or only go through the motions of a negotiation with the EU.
    >
    >
    >
    > + Edit. So self declared "moderate Leavers" on this forum, such as RCS and David L are now full on Corbynistas!
    >
    > A very valid point. Once a No Dealer is leader of the Tories, the only party for Leave with a WA is Corbyn's Labour, albeit with a confirmatory referendum. It is a unique political space.
    >
    > Are any Tories actually proposing leaving without a deal rather than trying to get a deal but leaving without if Oct 31 comes along without one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM

    1. Comes to the same thing so all of them are effectively proposing to leave without a deal. 2. Nope. Sign up to the WA if you want a deal, and believe us, you will.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    > @Byronic said:

    > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref

    >

    >



    >

    > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.

    >

    > Or am I misreading?



    ---------------------------



    Key thing, I think, is that Corbyn has completely taken over the Deal space. If you want a somewhat sensible Brexit, you need Corbyn. He doesn't have to sign up to a Tory agenda now because the new leader of that party will be a No Dealer or only go through the motions of a negotiation with the EU.



    + Edit. So self declared "moderate Leavers" on this forum, such as RCS and David L are now full on Corbynistas!
    A very valid point. Once a No Dealer is leader of the Tories, the only party for Leave with a WA is Corbyn's Labour, albeit with a confirmatory referendum. It is a unique political space.
    Are any Tories actually proposing leaving without a deal rather than trying to get a deal but leaving without if Oct 31 comes along without one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM
    It was a condition of the extension that the negotiations on the WA are over, and not reopened. There is scope to modify the PD.

    Of course, if new negotiations were wanted, that would require an extension and dropping of red lines. Labour might get away with that, but a Tory or BXP team? No chance.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    > @isam said:
    > > @Byronic said:
    >
    > > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref
    >
    > >
    >
    > > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082
    >
    >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Or am I misreading?
    >
    >
    >
    > ---------------------------
    >
    >
    >
    > Key thing, I think, is that Corbyn has completely taken over the Deal space. If you want a somewhat sensible Brexit, you need Corbyn. He doesn't have to sign up to a Tory agenda now because the new leader of that party will be a No Dealer or only go through the motions of a negotiation with the EU.
    >
    >
    >
    > + Edit. So self declared "moderate Leavers" on this forum, such as RCS and David L are now full on Corbynistas!
    >
    > A very valid point. Once a No Dealer is leader of the Tories, the only party for Leave with a WA is Corbyn's Labour, albeit with a confirmatory referendum. It is a unique political space.
    >
    > Are any Tories actually proposing leaving without a deal rather than trying to get a deal but leaving without if Oct 31 comes along without one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM

    Course they would. (Smiles and backs away nervously.) You just rest there while I go and get us - erm - a cup of tea. Yes, that's it. I'll just get us a nice cup of tea and you sit there and keep perfectly calm.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Kyle Edmund wins the first set in his first round match against local man Jeremy Chardy.

    However the British number one looks like he's just left a gay disco, having lost his trousers whilst wearing a floral shirt and sporting polka dot boxer shorts !!!!!!!!!

    TSE would be proud .. :smiley:
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572
    > @Byronic said:
    > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    >
    > >
    > > That is my solution - or at least to try it since it hasn't been tried yet. Around 1/6th of the electorate voted for the losers vote. Another 1/6th voted for a No Deal Brexit. That leaves 2/3rds of the electorate who are apparently not fanatics.
    > >
    > > We need a compromise that has us leaving but retaining a close relationship with the EU. We cannot put that in a referendum at present so to my mind the best way forward is a new PM who will make that case and then if necessary call a GE to get a Parliament that will pass it.
    > >
    > > The alternative is perpetual chaos because another referendum certainly won't end anything. <
    >
    > +++++
    >
    > But that is just fantasy politics. It's not on offer, practically, and the clock is ticking fast. No politician is talking of this.
    >
    > We need a PRACTICAL solution that can actually be done before Oct 31. Even a referendum is difficult - practically - tho I think the EU would offer us an extension if we took that route (however unpalatable it is, democratically)
    >
    >

    A losers revote is not a practical solution because there are many many millions of people who would not accept its validity. Nothing would change because the country would still be divided but now you would have all those millions who consider that democracy no longer works.


    Good luck with rebuilding anything under those circumstances.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Chris said:

    > @isam said:

    > > @Byronic said:

    > >



    > >

    >

    > > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
    > > Or am I misreading?

    > Key thing, I think, is that Corbyn has completely taken over the Deal space. If you want a somewhat sensible Brexit, you need Corbyn. He doesn't have to sign up to a Tory agenda now because the new leader of that party will be a No Dealer or only go through the motions of a negotiation with the EU.


    > + Edit. So self declared "moderate Leavers" on this forum, such as RCS and David L are now full on Corbynistas!

    >

    > A very valid point. Once a No Dealer is leader of the Tories, the only party for Leave with a WA is Corbyn's Labour, albeit with a confirmatory referendum. It is a unique political space.

    >

    > Are any Tories actually proposing leaving without a deal rather than trying to get a deal but leaving without if Oct 31 comes along without one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM



    Course they would. (Smiles and backs away nervously.) You just rest there while I go and get us - erm - a cup of tea. Yes, that's it. I'll just get us a nice cup of tea and you sit there and keep perfectly calm.
    Your material needs a lot of work!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    As Brits understandably focus on Brexit and populism, another story is emerging: the green wave. It is especially focused in amongst the young and in cities: Greens took nine of Germany’s ten largest cities, sometimes by large margins.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/05/a-green-wave-has-just-swept-europe/
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:

    > I am holding out faint hope that Gove might be the one to cut the Gordion Knot

    It's good to hold onto hope. I commend you for it. My hopes do not have as corporeal a form. I hope yours are not misplaced.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Further confirmation that Corbyn is succumbing to the 2nd ref pressure:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1133045259183767552
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @isam said:
    > We don't vote fir a government in a General Election. We vote for individual MPs to represent us.
    >
    > And if no government can be formed, we vote for them again.
    >
    > Democracy is not insulted.
    >
    >
    > Appalling analogy.
    >
    > A deal was done, and Remainer MPs who won their seats on a pledge of implementing the result, voted it down.

    It was the WA that was voted down, not "the result".
    And Leaver MPs also voted against it. According to some of them, it "wasn't Brexit".
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @isam said:
    > > @Byronic said:
    >
    > > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref
    >
    > >
    >
    > > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082
    >
    >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Or am I misreading?
    >
    >
    >
    > ---------------------------
    >
    >
    >
    > Key thing, I think, is that Corbyn has completely taken over the Deal space. If you want a somewhat sensible Brexit, you need Corbyn. He doesn't have to sign up to a Tory agenda now because the new leader of that party will be a No Dealer or only go through the motions of a negotiation with the EU.
    >
    >
    >
    > + Edit. So self declared "moderate Leavers" on this forum, such as RCS and David L are now full on Corbynistas!
    >
    > A very valid point. Once a No Dealer is leader of the Tories, the only party for Leave with a WA is Corbyn's Labour, albeit with a confirmatory referendum. It is a unique political space.
    >
    > Are any Tories actually proposing leaving without a deal rather than trying to get a deal but leaving without if Oct 31 comes along without one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM

    The basis for the extension was that the WA was closed.

    Since May announced her resignation the EU has been unanimous in saying that it will make no difference.

    Why should they talk unless a new PM is proposing to negotiate on the basis of different red lines. Is that what the proposed candidates for PM are suggesting? No - they are all suggesting asking for things that have already been asked for and rejected, several times. So there will be no new negotiations.

    No deal is where the Tories are heading. They are doing so on the basis of the Brexit Party getting c. 32% of the vote. That is not a majority. They may well get a No Deal Brexit. But this will not be the end of the matter. An exit on such terms on the basis of a minority of the electorate has no consensus behind it.

    The idea that getting to 1st November, being out of the EU and we can all then "move on" is for the birds.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Rory has retweeted the Spectator blog on green wave. Is he planning to come forward as a green conservative as Zac attempted?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Cyclefree said:

    > @isam said:

    > > @Byronic said:


    > >




    > > Or am I misreading?


    > ---------------------------

    &
    > Key thing, I think, is that Corbyn has completely taken over the Deal space. If you want a somewhat sensible Brexit, you need Corbyn. He doesn't have to sign up to a Tory agenda now because the new leader of that party will be a No Dealer or only go through the motions of a negotiation with the EU.


    > + Edit. So self declared "moderate Leavers" on this forum, such as RCS and David L are now full on Corbynistas!

    >

    > A very valid point. Once a No Dealer is leader of the Tories, the only party for Leave with a WA is Corbyn's Labour, albeit with a confirmatory referendum. It is a unique political space.

    >

    > Are any Tories actually proposing leaving without a deal rather than trying to get a deal but leaving without if Oct 31 comes along without one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM



    The basis for the extension was that the WA was closed.



    Since May announced her resignation the EU has been unanimous in saying that it will make no difference.



    Why should they talk unless a new PM is proposing to negotiate on the basis of different red lines. Is that what the proposed candidates for PM are suggesting? No - they are all suggesting asking for things that have already been asked for and rejected, several times. So there will be no new negotiations.



    No deal is where the Tories are heading. They are doing so on the basis of the Brexit Party getting c. 32% of the vote. That is not a majority. They may well get a No Deal Brexit. But this will not be the end of the matter. An exit on such terms on the basis of a minority of the electorate has no consensus behind it.



    The idea that getting to 1st November, being out of the EU and we can all then "move on" is for the birds.
    An exit when a majority have voted for it seems to be unacceptable to the Remain contingent.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    > @isam said:
    > > @isam said:
    >
    > > > @Byronic said:
    >
    > > > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082
    >
    >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
    > > > Or am I misreading?
    >
    > > Key thing, I think, is that Corbyn has completely taken over the Deal space. If you want a somewhat sensible Brexit, you need Corbyn. He doesn't have to sign up to a Tory agenda now because the new leader of that party will be a No Dealer or only go through the motions of a negotiation with the EU.
    >
    >
    > > + Edit. So self declared "moderate Leavers" on this forum, such as RCS and David L are now full on Corbynistas!
    >
    > >
    >
    > > A very valid point. Once a No Dealer is leader of the Tories, the only party for Leave with a WA is Corbyn's Labour, albeit with a confirmatory referendum. It is a unique political space.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Are any Tories actually proposing leaving without a deal rather than trying to get a deal but leaving without if Oct 31 comes along without one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM
    >
    >
    >
    > Course they would. (Smiles and backs away nervously.) You just rest there while I go and get us - erm - a cup of tea. Yes, that's it. I'll just get us a nice cup of tea and you sit there and keep perfectly calm.
    >
    > Your material needs a lot of work!

    It's OK. Don't panic. The tea's nearly ready. And in the meantime these nice men will make you comfortable. And secure.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I make these the UK vote shares, using Northern Ireland first preferences:

    BRX 30.52%
    LD 19.58%
    Lab 13.65%
    Green 11.76%
    Con 8.79%
    SNP 3.46%
    CHUK 3.32%
    UKIP 3.22%
    PC 0.95%
    SF 0.74%
    DUP 0.73%
    Alliance 0.62%
    SDLP 0.46%
    TUV 0.36%
    UUP 0.31%
    Yorkshire Party 0.30%
    Eng Dem 0.23%
    UK European Union Party 0.20%
    Animal Welfare Party 0.15%
    WEP 0.14%
    Ind Network 0.04%
    SPGB 0.02%
    Inds (various) 0.47%
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2019
    Chris said:

    > @isam said:

    > > @isam said:

    >

    > > > @Byronic said:

    >

    > > >



    > > Key thing, I think, is that Corbyn has completely taken over the Deal space. If you want a somewhat sensible Brexit, you need Corbyn. He doesn't have to sign up to a Tory agenda now because the new leader of that party will be a No Dealer or only go through the motions of a negotiation with the EU.

    > > + Edit. So self declared "moderate Leavers" on this forum, such as RCS and David L are now full on Corbynistas!

    > > A very valid point. Once a No Dealer is leader of the Tories, the only party for Leave with a WA is Corbyn's Labour, albeit with a confirmatory referendum. It is a unique political space.

    > > Are any Tories actually proposing leaving without a deal rather than trying to get a deal but leaving without if Oct 31 comes along without one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM

    > Course they would. (Smiles and backs away nervously.) You just rest there while I go and get us - erm - a cup of tea. Yes, that's it. I'll just get us a nice cup of tea and you sit there and keep perfectly calm.

    >

    > Your material needs a lot of work!



    It's OK. Don't panic. The tea's nearly ready. And in the meantime these nice men will make you comfortable. And secure.
    What was I saying about you being pompous? At least your lack of spine prevented you from laying me a bet on the back of your statistical "expertise", lucky for your wallet
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @isam said:
    > > > @Byronic said:
    > >
    > > > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > Or am I misreading?
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > ---------------------------
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Key thing, I think, is that Corbyn has completely taken over the Deal space. If you want a somewhat sensible Brexit, you need Corbyn. He doesn't have to sign up to a Tory agenda now because the new leader of that party will be a No Dealer or only go through the motions of a negotiation with the EU.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > + Edit. So self declared "moderate Leavers" on this forum, such as RCS and David L are now full on Corbynistas!
    > >
    > > A very valid point. Once a No Dealer is leader of the Tories, the only party for Leave with a WA is Corbyn's Labour, albeit with a confirmatory referendum. It is a unique political space.
    > >
    > > Are any Tories actually proposing leaving without a deal rather than trying to get a deal but leaving without if Oct 31 comes along without one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM
    >
    > The basis for the extension was that the WA was closed.
    >
    > Since May announced her resignation the EU has been unanimous in saying that it will make no difference.
    >
    > Why should they talk unless a new PM is proposing to negotiate on the basis of different red lines. Is that what the proposed candidates for PM are suggesting? No - they are all suggesting asking for things that have already been asked for and rejected, several times. So there will be no new negotiations.
    >
    > No deal is where the Tories are heading. They are doing so on the basis of the Brexit Party getting c. 32% of the vote. That is not a majority. They may well get a No Deal Brexit. But this will not be the end of the matter. An exit on such terms on the basis of a minority of the electorate has no consensus behind it.
    >
    > The idea that getting to 1st November, being out of the EU and we can all then "move on" is for the birds.

    How easy will it be for a minority Tory prime minister to achieve No Deal, though - on the assumption that they won't want to risk a general election?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.

    It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.

    Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).

    But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.

    We cannot let that happen here.

    The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.

    Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Northern Ireland set to return two out of three pro EU MEPs and the results there clearly restate they don’t won’t Brexit .

    Arlene Foster peddling some waffle about a a Brexit that doesn’t hurt the economy there, which clearly a no deal would do .
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    > @isam said:
    > > @isam said:
    >
    > > > @isam said:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > > @Byronic said:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > >
    >
    > > > Key thing, I think, is that Corbyn has completely taken over the Deal space. If you want a somewhat sensible Brexit, you need Corbyn. He doesn't have to sign up to a Tory agenda now because the new leader of that party will be a No Dealer or only go through the motions of a negotiation with the EU.
    >
    > > > + Edit. So self declared "moderate Leavers" on this forum, such as RCS and David L are now full on Corbynistas!
    >
    > > > A very valid point. Once a No Dealer is leader of the Tories, the only party for Leave with a WA is Corbyn's Labour, albeit with a confirmatory referendum. It is a unique political space.
    >
    > > > Are any Tories actually proposing leaving without a deal rather than trying to get a deal but leaving without if Oct 31 comes along without one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM
    >
    > > Course they would. (Smiles and backs away nervously.) You just rest there while I go and get us - erm - a cup of tea. Yes, that's it. I'll just get us a nice cup of tea and you sit there and keep perfectly calm.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Your material needs a lot of work!
    >
    >
    >
    > It's OK. Don't panic. The tea's nearly ready. And in the meantime these nice men will make you comfortable. And secure.
    >
    >
    >
    > What was I saying about you being pompous? At least your lack of spine prevented you from laying me a bet on the back of your statistical "expertise", lucky for your wallet

    I've no idea what you're talking about. Are you confusing me with somebody else? Can you remember what this bet was supposed to be about?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    I watched the first episode of the documentary about Mrs Thatcher. If only she was PM.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.
    >
    > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.
    >
    > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).
    >
    > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.
    >
    > We cannot let that happen here.
    >
    > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.
    >
    > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.
    >

    wuss
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT > @eristdoof said:
    > > @Philip_Thompson said:
    > > > @Barnesian said:
    > > > > @Philip_Thompson said:
    > > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > > > I do not believe that anything other than a tiny handful of Tories would VONC a new leader or that the DUP would.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Tiny handful maybe enough
    > > > >
    > > > > VONC isn't enough to stop Brexit though. It has to be done in time to hold the election and a new government prevents Brexit. Plus there's no guarantee under FPTP that Brexit supporters won't win the election.
    > > > >
    > > > > If the election is between a hard Brexiteer leading the Tories, Corbyn still prevaricating and the Lib Dems etc there's every chance the Tories could win the election just as the BXP won last week's election.
    > > > *************************************************************************************
    > > >
    > > > After a VONC, there are 14 days to find a PM who commands the confidence of the house in a vote of confidence. There may be sufficient MPs to give that confidence to someone who will ask the EU for an extension (which they will get in the circumstances) and then resign for a GE. The extension may be for four years of course. "Here you are. Don't come back bothering us until you've sorted yourself out".
    > >
    > > Corbyn won't give confidence to anyone else and Corbyn won't resign if he gets in power.
    >
    > Scenario: It's 20th October 2019. 3 Days ago the HoC voted no confidence in Her Majesty's prime minister because he's just sitting on his hands waiting for Halloween The VoNC was carried by 15 Votes. Now that the country really is in crisis 50 plus Conservatives (including Mrs May), most Labour Party MPs and all minor parties have agreed to send Ken Clarke to the Queen to form an emergency government on the grounds of preventing No Deal Brexit and holding GE in November.
    >
    > Are you really claiming that Corbyn would not support this emergency government, when he is so close the the GE that he believes he can win??

    Of course Corbyn would block it. He would rightly demand he be head of any unity government and if he wasn't made head he would only need to wait 11 days for his election.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624
    edited May 2019
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.
    >
    > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.
    >
    > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).
    >
    > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.
    >
    > We cannot let that happen here.
    >
    > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.
    >
    > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.
    >

    As I've said before we've become a 'take it from them and give it to me' society.

    Governments have made so many promises that for some groups to receive them other groups must lose out.

    And the way to justify those other groups losing out is to villainise them.

    Nor is there any shortage of politicians willing to do that for their own purposes.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @Chris said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > @isam said:
    > > > > @Byronic said:
    > > >
    > > > > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref
    > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
    > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > > Or am I misreading?
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > ---------------------------
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Key thing, I think, is that Corbyn has completely taken over the Deal space. If you want a somewhat sensible Brexit, you need Corbyn. He doesn't have to sign up to a Tory agenda now because the new leader of that party will be a No Dealer or only go through the motions of a negotiation with the EU.
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > + Edit. So self declared "moderate Leavers" on this forum, such as RCS and David L are now full on Corbynistas!
    > > >
    > > > A very valid point. Once a No Dealer is leader of the Tories, the only party for Leave with a WA is Corbyn's Labour, albeit with a confirmatory referendum. It is a unique political space.
    > > >
    > > > Are any Tories actually proposing leaving without a deal rather than trying to get a deal but leaving without if Oct 31 comes along without one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM
    > >
    > > The basis for the extension was that the WA was closed.
    > >
    > > Since May announced her resignation the EU has been unanimous in saying that it will make no difference.
    > >
    > > Why should they talk unless a new PM is proposing to negotiate on the basis of different red lines. Is that what the proposed candidates for PM are suggesting? No - they are all suggesting asking for things that have already been asked for and rejected, several times. So there will be no new negotiations.
    > >
    > > No deal is where the Tories are heading. They are doing so on the basis of the Brexit Party getting c. 32% of the vote. That is not a majority. They may well get a No Deal Brexit. But this will not be the end of the matter. An exit on such terms on the basis of a minority of the electorate has no consensus behind it.
    > >
    > > The idea that getting to 1st November, being out of the EU and we can all then "move on" is for the birds.
    >
    > How easy will it be for a minority Tory prime minister to achieve No Deal, though - on the assumption that they won't want to risk a general election?

    Very easy. It's the legal default, as I understand it. They need do nothing.

    Someone said that apparently Geoffrey Cox had advised Mrs May that she could not deliver a No Deal Brexit if Parliament voted against it. But I don't know whether than would apply if there were no further votes in Parliament.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    RobD said:


    Doesn't any deal require the WA to be signed as it is?


    Yes. And Corbyn won't agree to any deal, so meaningless.


  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @Alanbrooke said:
    > > @rcs1000 said:
    > > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.
    > >
    > > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.
    > >
    > > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).
    > >
    > > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.
    > >
    > > We cannot let that happen here.
    > >
    > > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.
    > >
    > > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.
    > >
    >
    > wuss<

    +++++

    He's not a wuss. I am in the same boat. It is now quite easy to see a scenario which includes all of these outcomes:

    1. No Deal - with the economic damage that means
    2. Scotland secedes
    3. Ulster reunifies with Ireland
    4. Corbyn gets elected in the chaos
    5. Further economic damage, capital flight, collapse in investment, Depression..

    After that we only need a plague to tick all the boxes.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    African countries since independence have been the places that have suffered the most from this sort of tribalism. As soon as a party wins an election they think it means doling out money and favours to their own tribe and treating everyone else like second-class citizens. It's all about grabbing what you can in case the other side manages to get back in power in the future.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @AndyJS said:
    > African countries since independence have been the places that have suffered the most from this sort of tribalism. As soon as a party wins an election they think it means doling out money and favours to their own tribe and treating everyone else like second-class citizens. It's all about grabbing what you can in case the other side manages to get back in power in the future.<

    ++++

    Also Shia and Sunnis in the MENA
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @Chris said:
    > > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > > @isam said:
    > > > > > @Byronic said:
    > > > >
    > > > > > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref
    > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
    > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > > Or am I misreading?
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > >
    ut one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM
    > > >
    > > > The basis for the extension was that the WA was closed.
    > > >
    > > > Since May announced her resignation the EU has been unanimous in saying that it will make no difference.
    > > >
    > > > Why should they talk unless a new PM is proposing to negotiate on the basis of different red lines. Is that what the proposed candidates for PM are suggesting? No - they are all suggesting asking for things that have already been asked for and rejected, several times. So there will be no new negotiations.
    > > >
    > > > No deal is where the Tories are heading. They are doing so on the basis of the Brexit Party getting c. 32% of the vote. That is not a majority. They may well get a No Deal Brexit. But this will not be the end of the matter. An exit on such terms on the basis of a minority of the electorate has no consensus behind it.
    > > >
    > > > The idea that getting to 1st November, being out of the EU and we can all then "move on" is for the birds.
    > >
    > > How easy will it be for a minority Tory prime minister to achieve No Deal, though - on the assumption that they won't want to risk a general election?
    >
    > Very easy. It's the legal default, as I understand it. They need do nothing.
    >
    > Someone said that apparently Geoffrey Cox had advised Mrs May that she could not deliver a No Deal Brexit if Parliament voted against it. But I don't know whether than would apply if there were no further votes in Parliament.

    I know it's the legal default if no one does anything. What I mean is, would the present House of Commons not try to stop it?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.
    >
    > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.
    >
    > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).
    >
    > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.
    >
    > We cannot let that happen here.
    >
    > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.
    >
    > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.
    >


    Yes, I fear for it too. The Tories seem to want to listen only to the Brexit party voters because they think that if they do listen to them they will get them back at the next GE. They are thinking only of themselves. The fact that one of the candidates - Raab - is boasting about ignoring Parliament is a hideous sign. How he can call himself a Tory beats me. This will not end well.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    I reckon Labour are going to pivot to a 2nd ref just too late for it to actually be a possibility of being achieved, and thereby just shooting themselves in the foot yet again.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    > @Byronic said:
    > > @Alanbrooke said:
    > > > @rcs1000 said:
    > > > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.
    > > >
    > > > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.
    > > >
    > > > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).
    > > >
    > > > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.
    > > >
    > > > We cannot let that happen here.
    > > >
    > > > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.
    > > >
    > > > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.
    > > >
    > >
    > > wuss<
    >
    > +++++
    >
    > He's not a wuss. I am in the same boat. It is now quite easy to see a scenario which includes all of these outcomes:
    >
    > 1. No Deal - with the economic damage that means
    > 2. Scotland secedes
    > 3. Ulster reunifies with Ireland
    > 4. Corbyn gets elected in the chaos
    > 5. Further economic damage, capital flight, collapse in investment, Depression..
    >
    > After that we only need a plague to tick all the boxes.

    you are george Osborne and I claim my £5
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @Chris said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > @Chris said:
    > > > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > > > @isam said:
    > > > > > > @Byronic said:
    > > > > >
    > > > > > > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref
    > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > > > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082
    > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > > > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > > > Or am I misreading?
    > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > ut one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM
    > > > >
    > > > > The basis for the extension was that the WA was closed.
    > > > >
    > > > > Since May announced her resignation the EU has been unanimous in saying that it will make no difference.
    > > > >
    > > > > Why should they talk unless a new PM is proposing to negotiate on the basis of different red lines. Is that what the proposed candidates for PM are suggesting? No - they are all suggesting asking for things that have already been asked for and rejected, several times. So there will be no new negotiations.
    > > > >
    > > > > No deal is where the Tories are heading. They are doing so on the basis of the Brexit Party getting c. 32% of the vote. That is not a majority. They may well get a No Deal Brexit. But this will not be the end of the matter. An exit on such terms on the basis of a minority of the electorate has no consensus behind it.
    > > > >
    > > > > The idea that getting to 1st November, being out of the EU and we can all then "move on" is for the birds.
    > > >
    > > > How easy will it be for a minority Tory prime minister to achieve No Deal, though - on the assumption that they won't want to risk a general election?
    > >
    > > Very easy. It's the legal default, as I understand it. They need do nothing.
    > >
    > > Someone said that apparently Geoffrey Cox had advised Mrs May that she could not deliver a No Deal Brexit if Parliament voted against it. But I don't know whether than would apply if there were no further votes in Parliament.
    >
    > I know it's the legal default if no one does anything. What I mean is, would the present House of Commons not try to stop it?

    How? If they're not sitting. They can do an EDM or something but there is nothing that they can do which would be binding. So at most it would be moral / political pressure.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    rcs1000 said:

    I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.



    It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.



    Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).



    But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.



    We cannot let that happen here.



    The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.



    Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.

    I think it boils down to a couple of things.

    1. Both sides think they are right.

    2. Both sides think the other is evil.

    The middle way seems to have been completely lost by the weak government and opposition and now Labour have to decide to play to the revoke tune and the Tories to Nigel's no deal tune. It's a disaster of our own making.

    We just have to hope that whoever becomes PM next is able to sell a positive vision of any kind and bring enough people with him or her.

    I honestly think a second referendum will just cause even more division and anger. If it's a narrow loss for Leave then you can bet 45% of the country will vote for Nige. If it's another victory for Leave then 45% of the country will feel completely alienated from the other half of the country.

    The only way forwards is for he new PM to sell the PM's deal to the nation and get a mandate for it with a GE. I don't see the EU making anything other than minor changes so it's literally going to be doing the job that Theresa was unable to do, sell the deal to the nation with a positive vision.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Well I did say that the Brexit vote was a long term disaster, an inflexion point. I’ve seen nothing to change my mind yet.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @Byronic said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > African countries since independence have been the places that have suffered the most from this sort of tribalism. As soon as a party wins an election they think it means doling out money and favours to their own tribe and treating everyone else like second-class citizens. It's all about grabbing what you can in case the other side manages to get back in power in the future.<
    >
    > ++++
    >
    > Also Shia and Sunnis in the MENA


    And the Christian Democrats/Socialists in Italy - clientilismo.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @Chris said:
    > > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > > @Chris said:
    > > > > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > > > > @isam said:
    > > > > > > > @Byronic said:
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > Or am I misreading?
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > ut one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM
    > > > > >
    > > > > > The basis for the extension was that the WA was closed.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Since May announced her resignation the EU has been unanimous in saying that it will make no difference.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Why should they talk unless a new PM is proposing to negotiate on the basis of different red lines. Is that what the proposed candidates for PM are suggesting? No - they are all suggesting asking for things that have already been asked for and rejected, several times. So there will be no new negotiations.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > No deal is where the Tories are heading. They are doing so on the basis of the Brexit Party getting c. 32% of the vote. That is not a majority. They may well get a No Deal Brexit. But this will not be the end of the matter. An exit on such terms on the basis of a minority of the electorate has no consensus behind it.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > The idea that getting to 1st November, being out of the EU and we can all then "move on" is for the birds.
    > > > >
    > > > > How easy will it be for a minority Tory prime minister to achieve No Deal, though - on the assumption that they won't want to risk a general election?
    > > >
    > > > Very easy. It's the legal default, as I understand it. They need do nothing.
    > > >
    > > > Someone said that apparently Geoffrey Cox had advised Mrs May that she could not deliver a No Deal Brexit if Parliament voted against it. But I don't know whether than would apply if there were no further votes in Parliament.
    > >
    > > I know it's the legal default if no one does anything. What I mean is, would the present House of Commons not try to stop it?
    >
    > How? If they're not sitting. They can do an EDM or something but there is nothing that they can do which would be binding. So at most it would be moral / political pressure.

    Not sitting when?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > Well I did say that the Brexit vote was a long term disaster, an inflexion point. I’ve seen nothing to change my mind yet.

    lol what a surprise.

    have a bowler hat.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.
    >
    > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.
    >
    > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).
    >
    > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.
    >
    > We cannot let that happen here.
    >
    > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.
    >
    > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    Brexit needs to fail definitively , so most people realise it was a mistake and don't hold onto the delusion that, if only X it would have been fine. It probably needs a real crisis to strip away the delusions, but you don't want that crisis to engulf everything.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    > @MaxPB said:
    >
    > The only way forwards is for he new PM to sell the PM's deal to the nation and get a mandate for it with a GE. I don't see the EU making anything other than minor changes so it's literally going to be doing the job that Theresa was unable to do, sell the deal to the nation with a positive vision.

    Except they'll all pretty much have to trash it, if they haven't already, if they want to get the job in the first place.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.



    It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.



    Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).



    But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.



    We cannot let that happen here.



    The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.



    Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.

    I think it boils down to a couple of things.

    1. Both sides think they are right.

    2. Both sides think the other is evil.

    The middle way seems to have been completely lost by the weak government and opposition and now Labour have to decide to play to the revoke tune and the Tories to Nigel's no deal tune. It's a disaster of our own making.

    We just have to hope that whoever becomes PM next is able to sell a positive vision of any kind and bring enough people with him or her.

    I honestly think a second referendum will just cause even more division and anger. If it's a narrow loss for Leave then you can bet 45% of the country will vote for Nige. If it's another victory for Leave then 45% of the country will feel completely alienated from the other half of the country.

    The only way forwards is for he new PM to sell the PM's deal to the nation and get a mandate for it with a GE. I don't see the EU making anything other than minor changes so it's literally going to be doing the job that Theresa was unable to do, sell the deal to the nation with a positive vision.
    Sounds like you want Rory!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > Well I did say that the Brexit vote was a long term disaster, an inflexion point. I’ve seen nothing to change my mind yet.

    You're confusing cause and consequence.

    This was a inflexion point back in 2003:

    ' Immigration to the UK could increase by more than 10% as a result of EU enlargement, according to research commissioned by the Home Office.

    A report indicated that up to 13,000 extra economic migrants could come to Britain each year as a direct result of 10 new countries joining the organisation.

    The Conservatives have expressed fears that expanding the EU would result in large numbers of people from the former Communist countries looking for a more prosperous future in countries like the UK.

    But Home Office Minister Beverley Hughes told MPs: "The number coming here for employment will be minimal." '

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2967318.stm
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Cyclefree said:

    > @Byronic said:

    > > @AndyJS said:

    > > African countries since independence have been the places that have suffered the most from this sort of tribalism. As soon as a party wins an election they think it means doling out money and favours to their own tribe and treating everyone else like second-class citizens. It's all about grabbing what you can in case the other side manages to get back in power in the future.<

    >

    > ++++

    >

    > Also Shia and Sunnis in the MENA





    And the Christian Democrats/Socialists in Italy - clientilismo.

    Labour over here with the Byzantine tax credits system they introduced. And the Tories with the triple lock for pensioners.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour MP for Stoke Central Gareth Snell has just said that he believes a No Deal Brexit is now "almost an inevitability".
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    AndyJS said:

    Labour MP for Stoke Central Gareth Snell has just said that he believes a No Deal Brexit is now "almost an inevitability".

    Does he explain how?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    MaxPB said:

    I honestly think a second referendum will just cause even more division and anger. If it's a narrow loss for Leave then you can bet 45% of the country will vote for Nige. If it's another victory for Leave then 45% of the country will feel completely alienated from the other half of the country.

    The only way forwards is for he new PM to sell the PM's deal to the nation and get a mandate for it with a GE. I don't see the EU making anything other than minor changes so it's literally going to be doing the job that Theresa was unable to do, sell the deal to the nation with a positive vision.

    To use the analogy of a coiled spring, the referendum injected a huge amount of potential energy into our politics that needs to be dissipated in some way. A smooth, orderly Brexit will not do the trick, and will be seen as a betrayal by people who wanted to overturn the status quo - the spring will remain coiled.

    Something significant will have to break to provide the cathartic release we need to be able to move forwards, and my vote would be to break the union.
This discussion has been closed.