> > > + Edit. So self declared "moderate Leavers" on this forum, such as RCS and David L are now full on Corbynistas!
>
> > > A very valid point. Once a No Dealer is leader of the Tories, the only party for Leave with a WA is Corbyn's Labour, albeit with a confirmatory referendum. It is a unique political space.
>
> > > Are any Tories actually proposing leaving without a deal rather than trying to get a deal but leaving without if Oct 31 comes along without one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM
>
> > Course they would. (Smiles and backs away nervously.) You just rest there while I go and get us - erm - a cup of tea. Yes, that's it. I'll just get us a nice cup of tea and you sit there and keep perfectly calm.
>
> >
>
> > Your material needs a lot of work!
>
>
>
> It's OK. Don't panic. The tea's nearly ready. And in the meantime these nice men will make you comfortable. And secure.
>
>
>
> What was I saying about you being pompous? At least your lack of spine prevented you from laying me a bet on the back of your statistical "expertise", lucky for your wallet
I've no idea what you're talking about. Are you confusing me with somebody else? Can you remember what this bet was supposed to be about?
Your spread on BXP+UKIP vote %.
But whatever, I'd like to ask you to tone down the condescension, mindset that anyone who disagrees with your politics is mentally ill, and mockery of mental illness please
> @MaxPB said: > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change. > > > > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read. > > > > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc). > > > > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one. > > > > We cannot let that happen here. > > > > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well. > > > > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life. > > I think it boils down to a couple of things. > > 1. Both sides think they are right. > > 2. Both sides think the other is evil. > > The middle way seems to have been completely lost by the weak government and opposition and now Labour have to decide to play to the revoke tune and the Tories to Nigel's no deal tune. It's a disaster of our own making. > > We just have to hope that whoever becomes PM next is able to sell a positive vision of any kind and bring enough people with him or her. > > I honestly think a second referendum will just cause even more division and anger. If it's a narrow loss for Leave then you can bet 45% of the country will vote for Nige. If it's another victory for Leave then 45% of the country will feel completely alienated from the other half of the country. > > The only way forwards is for he new PM to sell the PM's deal to the nation and get a mandate for it with a GE. I don't see the EU making anything other than minor changes so it's literally going to be doing the job that Theresa was unable to do, sell the deal to the nation with a positive vision.
Not just a weak government but a government whose politicians were more interested in their own scheming but not willing to take any responsibility or do any work.
> @FF43 said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change. > > > > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read. > > > > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc). > > > > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one. > > > > We cannot let that happen here. > > > > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well. > > > > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life. > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> > > Brexit needs to fail definitively , so most people realise it was a mistake and don't hold onto the delusion that, if only X it would have been fine. It probably needs a real crisis to strip away the delusions, but you don't want that crisis to engulf everything.
you really do struggle with people having different opinions than you
> @williamglenn said: > I honestly think a second referendum will just cause even more division and anger. If it's a narrow loss for Leave then you can bet 45% of the country will vote for Nige. If it's another victory for Leave then 45% of the country will feel completely alienated from the other half of the country. > > The only way forwards is for he new PM to sell the PM's deal to the nation and get a mandate for it with a GE. I don't see the EU making anything other than minor changes so it's literally going to be doing the job that Theresa was unable to do, sell the deal to the nation with a positive vision. > > To use the analogy of a coiled spring, the referendum injected a huge amount of potential energy into our politics that needs to be dissipated in some way. A smooth, orderly Brexit will not do the trick, and will be seen as a betrayal by people who wanted to overturn the status quo - the spring will remain coiled. > > Something significant will have to break to provide the cathartic release we need to be able to move forwards, and my vote would be to break the union.
> @Chris said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > @Chris said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > @Chris said: > > > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > @isam said: > > > > > > > > @Byronic said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Or am I misreading? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ut one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM > > > > > > > > > > > > The basis for the extension was that the WA was closed. > > > > > > > > > > > > Since May announced her resignation the EU has been unanimous in saying that it will make no difference. > > > > > > > > > > > > Why should they talk unless a new PM is proposing to negotiate on the basis of different red lines. Is that what the proposed candidates for PM are suggesting? No - they are all suggesting asking for things that have already been asked for and rejected, several times. So there will be no new negotiations. > > > > > > > > > > > > No deal is where the Tories are heading. They are doing so on the basis of the Brexit Party getting c. 32% of the vote. That is not a majority. They may well get a No Deal Brexit. But this will not be the end of the matter. An exit on such terms on the basis of a minority of the electorate has no consensus behind it. > > > > > > > > > > > > The idea that getting to 1st November, being out of the EU and we can all then "move on" is for the birds. > > > > > > > > > > How easy will it be for a minority Tory prime minister to achieve No Deal, though - on the assumption that they won't want to risk a general election? > > > > > > > > Very easy. It's the legal default, as I understand it. They need do nothing. > > > > > > > > Someone said that apparently Geoffrey Cox had advised Mrs May that she could not deliver a No Deal Brexit if Parliament voted against it. But I don't know whether than would apply if there were no further votes in Parliament. > > > > > > I know it's the legal default if no one does anything. What I mean is, would the present House of Commons not try to stop it? > > > > How? If they're not sitting. They can do an EDM or something but there is nothing that they can do which would be binding. So at most it would be moral / political pressure. > > Not sitting when?
> @MaxPB said: > > @Byronic said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > African countries since independence have been the places that have suffered the most from this sort of tribalism. As soon as a party wins an election they think it means doling out money and favours to their own tribe and treating everyone else like second-class citizens. It's all about grabbing what you can in case the other side manages to get back in power in the future.< > > > > > > ++++ > > > > > > Also Shia and Sunnis in the MENA > > > > > > And the Christian Democrats/Socialists in Italy - clientilismo. > > Labour over here with the Byzantine tax credits system they introduced. And the Tories with the triple lock for pensioners.
Triple locking pensions while simultaneously tripling student fees was as clear an example of transferring wealth from one group to another as you could wish to see.
I honestly think a second referendum will just cause even more division and anger. If it's a narrow loss for Leave then you can bet 45% of the country will vote for Nige. If it's another victory for Leave then 45% of the country will feel completely alienated from the other half of the country.
The only way forwards is for he new PM to sell the PM's deal to the nation and get a mandate for it with a GE. I don't see the EU making anything other than minor changes so it's literally going to be doing the job that Theresa was unable to do, sell the deal to the nation with a positive vision.
To use the analogy of a coiled spring, the referendum injected a huge amount of potential energy into our politics that needs to be dissipated in some way. A smooth, orderly Brexit will not do the trick, and will be seen as a betrayal by people who wanted to overturn the status quo - the spring will remain coiled.
Something significant will have to break to provide the cathartic release we need to be able to move forwards, and my vote would be to break the union.
I think if an orderly brexit is secured then it buys the government another 5 years to release the potential energy with tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts. We are a nation that is too heavily taxed at all points in life. There is no relief for middle income Britain, if you're poor you get tax credits, if you're rich you employ people to reduce your tax liability. Everyone else who plays by the rules gets shafted.
Semantics. Of course Corbyn would prefer a GE, he wants to Leave AND be PM. But he's been sat on. The stuff about a GE is him squeaking. He is now pretty committed to a new vote
> I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.
>
> It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.
>
> Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).
>
> But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.
>
> We cannot let that happen here.
>
> The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.
>
> Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.
>
Yes, I fear for it too. The Tories seem to want to listen only to the Brexit party voters because they think that if they do listen to them they will get them back at the next GE. They are thinking only of themselves. The fact that one of the candidates - Raab - is boasting about ignoring Parliament is a hideous sign. How he can call himself a Tory beats me. This will not end well.
The Tories of the modern generation are essentially lazy blighters. They envy Nigel because he’s seemingly achieved all this success just by flogging facile ‘solutions’ and not doing any work. They want his easy life and think they can achieve that by mimicking him. How one pines for a politician like Maggie, who knew the value of hard work and that the world is complex place!
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > > @isam said: > > > > > > > > @isam said: > > > > > > @Byronic said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Course they would. (Smiles and backs away nervously.) You just rest there while I go and get us - erm - a cup of tea. Yes, that's it. I'll just get us a nice cup of tea and you sit there and keep perfectly calm. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Your material needs a lot of work! > > > > > > > > > > > > It's OK. Don't panic. The tea's nearly ready. And in the meantime these nice men will make you comfortable. And secure. > > > > > > > > > > > > What was I saying about you being pompous? At least your lack of spine prevented you from laying me a bet on the back of your statistical "expertise", lucky for your wallet > > > > I've no idea what you're talking about. Are you confusing me with somebody else? Can you remember what this bet was supposed to be about? > > Your spread on BXP+UKIP vote %. > > But whatever, I'd like to ask you to tone down the condescension, mindset that anyone who disagrees with your politics is mentally ill, and mockery of mental illness please
> > > > > > > > > > > > > Your material needs a lot of work! > > > > > > > > > > > > It's OK. Don't panic. The tea's nearly ready. And in the meantime these nice men will make you comfortable. And secure. > > > > > > > > > > > > What was I saying about you being pompous? At least your lack of spine prevented you from laying me a bet on the back of your statistical "expertise", lucky for your wallet > > > > I've no idea what you're talking about. Are you confusing me with somebody else? Can you remember what this bet was supposed to be about? > > Your spread on BXP+UKIP vote %. > > But whatever, I'd like to ask you to tone down the condescension, mindset that anyone who disagrees with your politics is mentally ill, and mockery of mental illness please
A spread bet on the BXP+UKIP percentage? What do you think I said it would be? Certainly I thought it was _possible_ the Brexit Party would go below 30% - and they very nearly did - but I'm sure I went no further than that.
I think you should lie down on that couch over there and tell me all about it.
> @FF43 said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change. > > > > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read. > > > > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc). > > > > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one. > > > > We cannot let that happen here. > > > > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well. > > > > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life. > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> > > Brexit needs to fail definitively , so most people realise it was a mistake and don't hold onto the delusion that, if only X it would have been fine. It probably needs a real crisis to strip away the delusions, but you don't want that crisis to engulf everything.
Never going to happen. You Remaniers have made sure the betrayal narrative is firmly in place and you will never be able to regain the trust of those who voted for Brexit believing the politicians were acting honestly.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Chris said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @Chris said: > > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > @Chris said: > > > > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > > @isam said: > > > > > > > > > @Byronic said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Or am I misreading? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ut one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The basis for the extension was that the WA was closed. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Since May announced her resignation the EU has been unanimous in saying that it will make no difference. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Why should they talk unless a new PM is proposing to negotiate on the basis of different red lines. Is that what the proposed candidates for PM are suggesting? No - they are all suggesting asking for things that have already been asked for and rejected, several times. So there will be no new negotiations. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > No deal is where the Tories are heading. They are doing so on the basis of the Brexit Party getting c. 32% of the vote. That is not a majority. They may well get a No Deal Brexit. But this will not be the end of the matter. An exit on such terms on the basis of a minority of the electorate has no consensus behind it. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The idea that getting to 1st November, being out of the EU and we can all then "move on" is for the birds. > > > > > > > > > > > > How easy will it be for a minority Tory prime minister to achieve No Deal, though - on the assumption that they won't want to risk a general election? > > > > > > > > > > Very easy. It's the legal default, as I understand it. They need do nothing. > > > > > > > > > > Someone said that apparently Geoffrey Cox had advised Mrs May that she could not deliver a No Deal Brexit if Parliament voted against it. But I don't know whether than would apply if there were no further votes in Parliament. > > > > > > > > I know it's the legal default if no one does anything. What I mean is, would the present House of Commons not try to stop it? > > > > > > How? If they're not sitting. They can do an EDM or something but there is nothing that they can do which would be binding. So at most it would be moral / political pressure. > > > > Not sitting when? > > Over the summer and during most of September. > >
OK. I was thinking of the current deadline - the end of October.
I think if an orderly brexit is secured then it buys the government another 5 years to release the potential energy with tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts. We are a nation that is too heavily taxed at all points in life. There is no relief for middle income Britain, if you're poor you get tax credits, if you're rich you employ people to reduce your tax liability. Everyone else who plays by the rules gets shafted.
Brexit is nothing if not a project that demands the British state do more, so combining it with an agenda of tax cutting doesn't make much sense to me.
> But whatever, I'd like to ask you to tone down the condescension, mindset that anyone who disagrees with your politics is mentally ill, and mockery of mental illness please
A spread bet on the BXP+UKIP percentage? What do you think I said it would be? Certainly I thought it was _possible_ the Brexit Party would go below 30% - and they very nearly did - but I'm sure I went no further than that.
I think you should like down on that couch over there and tell me all about it.
I asked for your spread price, you didnt say but I think you'd said low 20s for BXP
Anyway, you seem like a thoroughly nasty piece of work. We can all be, but I'd rather not get into trading personal insults anymore with people I don't know, and whose circumstances I don't know. It always looks so petty on reflection.
> @Alanbrooke said: > > @FF43 said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change. > > > > > > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read. > > > > > > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc). > > > > > > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one. > > > > > > We cannot let that happen here. > > > > > > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well. > > > > > > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life. > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> > > > > Brexit needs to fail definitively , so most people realise it was a mistake and don't hold onto the delusion that, if only X it would have been fine. It probably needs a real crisis to strip away the delusions, but you don't want that crisis to engulf everything. > > you really do struggle with people having different opinions than you
+++++++++++
Not at all. Different opinions make discussion worthwhile. I could have prefixed my comment with a superfluous "I think" and perhaps add the remark that I, along with 96% ? (I forget the exact figure) of people think Brexit is not going well, therefore it's only a question of how Brexit fails and not whether it does so.
> @FF43 said: > > @Alanbrooke said: > > > @FF43 said: > > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change. > > > > > > > > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read. > > > > > > > > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc). > > > > > > > > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one. > > > > > > > > We cannot let that happen here. > > > > > > > > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well. > > > > > > > > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life. > > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> > > > > > > Brexit needs to fail definitively , so most people realise it was a mistake and don't hold onto the delusion that, if only X it would have been fine. It probably needs a real crisis to strip away the delusions, but you don't want that crisis to engulf everything. > > > > you really do struggle with people having different opinions than you > > +++++++++++ > > Not at all. Different opinions make discussion worthwhile. I could have prefixed my comment with a superfluous "I think" and perhaps add the remark that I, along with 96% ? (I forget the exact figure) of people think Brexit is not going well, therefore it's only a question of how Brexit fails and not whether it does so.
Conflating those thinking it is not going well because of the politicians mishandling it with those who think it should fail is a very novel way of viewing polls.
> @MaxPB said: > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change. > > > > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read. > > > > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc). > > > > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one. > > > > We cannot let that happen here. > > > > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well. > > > > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life. > > I think it boils down to a couple of things. > > 1. Both sides think they are right. > > 2. Both sides think the other is evil. > > The middle way seems to have been completely lost by the weak government and opposition and now Labour have to decide to play to the revoke tune and the Tories to Nigel's no deal tune. It's a disaster of our own making. > > We just have to hope that whoever becomes PM next is able to sell a positive vision of any kind and bring enough people with him or her. > > I honestly think a second referendum will just cause even more division and anger. If it's a narrow loss for Leave then you can bet 45% of the country will vote for Nige. If it's another victory for Leave then 45% of the country will feel completely alienated from the other half of the country. > > The only way forwards is for he new PM to sell the PM's deal to the nation and get a mandate for it with a GE. I don't see the EU making anything other than minor changes so it's literally going to be doing the job that Theresa was unable to do, sell the deal to the nation with a positive vision.
A lot of people on both sides have persuaded themselves that a political disagreement is a conflict between the children of light and the children of darkness.
> @Sean_F said: > > @MaxPB said: > > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change. > > > > > > > > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read. > > > > > > > > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc). > > > > > > > > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one. > > > > > > > > We cannot let that happen here. > > > > > > > > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well. > > > > > > > > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life. > > > > I think it boils down to a couple of things. > > > > 1. Both sides think they are right. > > > > 2. Both sides think the other is evil. > > > > The middle way seems to have been completely lost by the weak government and opposition and now Labour have to decide to play to the revoke tune and the Tories to Nigel's no deal tune. It's a disaster of our own making. > > > > We just have to hope that whoever becomes PM next is able to sell a positive vision of any kind and bring enough people with him or her. > > > > I honestly think a second referendum will just cause even more division and anger. If it's a narrow loss for Leave then you can bet 45% of the country will vote for Nige. If it's another victory for Leave then 45% of the country will feel completely alienated from the other half of the country. > > > > The only way forwards is for he new PM to sell the PM's deal to the nation and get a mandate for it with a GE. I don't see the EU making anything other than minor changes so it's literally going to be doing the job that Theresa was unable to do, sell the deal to the nation with a positive vision. > > A lot of people on both sides have persuaded themselves that a political disagreement is a conflict between the children of light and the children of darkness.
yes its ridiculous
in or out life goes on and people are still the same
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @FF43 said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change. > > > > > > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read. > > > > > > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc). > > > > > > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one. > > > > > > We cannot let that happen here. > > > > > > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well. > > > > > > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life. > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> > > > > Brexit needs to fail definitively , so most people realise it was a mistake and don't hold onto the delusion that, if only X it would have been fine. It probably needs a real crisis to strip away the delusions, but you don't want that crisis to engulf everything. > > Never going to happen. You Remaniers have made sure the betrayal narrative is firmly in place and you will never be able to regain the trust of those who voted for Brexit believing the politicians were acting honestly.
----------
No crisis can ever be big enough to strip away the Brexit delusions? Somewhat genuine question, but perhaps for another discussion.
> @isam said: > > > > > Your spread on BXP+UKIP vote %. > > > > > > But whatever, I'd like to ask you to tone down the condescension, mindset that anyone who disagrees with your politics is mentally ill, and mockery of mental illness please > > > > A spread bet on the BXP+UKIP percentage? What do you think I said it would be? Certainly I thought it was _possible_ the Brexit Party would go below 30% - and they very nearly did - but I'm sure I went no further than that. > > > > I think you should like down on that couch over there and tell me all about it. > > I asked for your spread price, you didnt say but I think you'd said low 20s for BXP
No, I didn't say that. I think I said the Brexit Party percentages _in some individual regions_ might suggest mid 20s, but for the country as a whole what I thought was that it might go below 30%. And I'm pretty sure I never expressed any opinion about the UKIP percentage.
Given your tendency to be pretty insulting to people on the basis of having misremembered and/or misspoken, I don't think you can complain about a bit of light-hearted ribbing. It certainly doesn't call for pomposity. ;-)
> > But whatever, I'd like to ask you to tone down the condescension, mindset that anyone who disagrees with your politics is mentally ill, and mockery of mental illness please
> A spread bet on the BXP+UKIP percentage? What do you think I said it would be? Certainly I thought it was _possible_ the Brexit Party would go below 30% - and they very nearly did - but I'm sure I went no further than that. > I think you should like down on that couch over there and tell me all about it. > I asked for your spread price, you didnt say but I think you'd said low 20s for BXP
No, I didn't say that. I think I said the Brexit Party percentages _in some individual regions_ might suggest mid 20s, but for the country as a whole what I thought was that it might go below 30%. And I'm pretty sure I never expressed any opinion about the UKIP percentage.
Given your tendency to be pretty insulting to people on the basis of having misremembered and/or misspoken, I don't think you can complain about a bit of light-hearted ribbing. It certainly doesn't call for pomposity. ;-)
No crisis can ever be big enough to strip away the Brexit delusions? Somewhat genuine question, but perhaps for another discussion.
You are literally part of the problem Robert is describing. That you don't see it isn't at all surprising given the brexit madness you seem to be suffering from.
> > > you really do struggle with people having different opinions than you > > > > Not at all. Different opinions make discussion worthwhile. I could have prefixed my comment with a superfluous "I think" and perhaps add the remark that I, along with 96% ? (I forget the exact figure) of people think Brexit is not going well, therefore it's only a question of how Brexit fails and not whether it does so. > > Conflating those thinking it is not going well because of the politicians mishandling it with those who think it should fail is a very novel way of viewing polls.
++++++++
Fussy correction: is failing, not should fail.
The difference between politicians finding the job impossible to do and the job being impossible to do may not be that huge, I suggest. It comes to the same thing in the end, in any case. I would also suggest politicians were incentivised to deliver Brexit and would have done so if it had been easy.
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > > Your spread on BXP+UKIP vote %. > > > > But whatever, I'd like to ask you to tone down the condescension, mindset that anyone who disagrees with your politics is mentally ill, and mockery of mental illness please > > > A spread bet on the BXP+UKIP percentage? What do you think I said it would be? Certainly I thought it was _possible_ the Brexit Party would go below 30% - and they very nearly did - but I'm sure I went no further than that. > > I think you should like down on that couch over there and tell me all about it. > > I asked for your spread price, you didnt say but I think you'd said low 20s for BXP > > > > No, I didn't say that. I think I said the Brexit Party percentages _in some individual regions_ might suggest mid 20s, but for the country as a whole what I thought was that it might go below 30%. And I'm pretty sure I never expressed any opinion about the UKIP percentage. > > > > Given your tendency to be pretty insulting to people on the basis of having misremembered and/or misspoken, I don't think you can complain about a bit of light-hearted ribbing. It certainly doesn't call for pomposity. ;-) > > Just leave it, if you can.
> @Sean_F said: > A lot of people on both sides have persuaded themselves that a political disagreement is a conflict between the children of light and the children of darkness.
What's your opinion on the parentage of Sinn Fein & their supporters?
> > > But whatever, I'd like to ask you to tone down the condescension, mindset that anyone who disagrees with your politics is mentally ill, and mockery of mental illness please
>
> > A spread bet on the BXP+UKIP percentage? What do you think I said it would be? Certainly I thought it was _possible_ the Brexit Party would go below 30% - and they very nearly did - but I'm sure I went no further than that.
> > I think you should like down on that couch over there and tell me all about it.
> > I asked for your spread price, you didnt say but I think you'd said low 20s for BXP
>
>
>
> No, I didn't say that. I think I said the Brexit Party percentages _in some individual regions_ might suggest mid 20s, but for the country as a whole what I thought was that it might go below 30%. And I'm pretty sure I never expressed any opinion about the UKIP percentage.
>
>
>
> Given your tendency to be pretty insulting to people on the basis of having misremembered and/or misspoken, I don't think you can complain about a bit of light-hearted ribbing. It certainly doesn't call for pomposity. ;-)
A lot of people on both sides have persuaded themselves that a political disagreement is a conflict between the children of light and the children of darkness.
That's the way people talk about everything now.
Nowadays nothing is ever simply a problem, with multiple possible choices of action, leading to different outcomes with different pros and cons. Everything is a crisis, everything demands immediate drastic action, where no price is too high, and anyone who has an opposing view is not just wrong, but wicked too.
The trouble with everything being a crisis, is that if everything is crisis then really nothing is a crisis. You can't make everything your top priority.
There are way bigger problems facing the UK than Brexit. Brexit is the sort of thing that a commission and few votes in the commons ought to decide, plus a few years of implementation. If Parliament had respected the vote we should be out now, with a sensible transition under way, and a constructive negotiation on future relations with the EU taking place.
@Sean_F said: A lot of people on both sides have persuaded themselves that a political disagreement is a conflict between the children of light and the children of darkness.
+++++++++++++++++
The new Conservative Leader needs to come out and say to the Leavers: "you will not get all you desire, but you will get the UK out of the EU. You will get an end to FoM. You will get us out of the CAP and the CFP. You will get an end ECJ supremacy over EU law. But this cannot simply be an exit for Nigel Farage, it has to be an exit that works for everyone."
And then they need to say to the Remainers: "Yes, I know you think it sucks that we're leaving the EU. But that is what the people voted for, and you see the strength of the Brexit Party vote last week. This genie will not be put back into the bottle. But let me give you something for your support: we're going to maintain our membership of Erasmus, so that Brits can still go to European universities. We're going to try and remain as close as we can to the EU, so there will be simplified processes for people from there coming to work here. This isn't going to be fortress Britain, this is going to be the UK walking alongside the EU."
A lot of people on both sides have persuaded themselves that a political disagreement is a conflict between the children of light and the children of darkness.
It does feel that way at the moment. Sadly it's not just confined to voters, but also to MPs.
I actually think it would be worthwhile for the new PM to bring Ken Clark back into the tent and maybe even the traitorous Grieve. We should try and find a solution to this that keeps as many people on side as possible. No deal just doesn't have a mandate. Neither does revoke. A second referendum will, IMO, ratchet up the pressure and make everything worse when in fact we should be cooling things down.
@glw said: The trouble with everything being a crisis, is that if everything is crisis then really nothing is a crisis. You can't make everything your top priority.
++++++++++++
We should focus our efforts on a wide range of options.
(Was actually once said by a CEO of a company I invested in. Needless to say, it didn't end well.)
> @MaxPB said: > No crisis can ever be big enough to strip away the Brexit delusions? Somewhat genuine question, but perhaps for another discussion. > > You are literally part of the problem Robert is describing. That you don't see it isn't at all surprising given the brexit madness you seem to be suffering from.
------------------:
Whatever. I am slightly curious to know how you, Robert and Richard feel about voting for Corbyn, because he is the only major politician serious about a middle way deal with the EU right now.
A lot of people on both sides have persuaded themselves that a political disagreement is a conflict between the children of light and the children of darkness.
+++++++++++++++++
The new Conservative Leader needs to come out and say to the Leavers: "you will not get all you desire, but you will get the UK out of the EU. You will get an end to FoM. You will get us out of the CAP and the CFP. You will get an end ECJ supremacy over EU law. But this cannot simply be an exit for Nigel Farage, it has to be an exit that works for everyone."
And then they need to say to the Remainers: "Yes, I know you think it sucks that we're leaving the EU. But that is what the people voted for, and you see the strength of the Brexit Party vote last week. This genie will not be put back into the bottle. But let me give you something for your support: we're going to maintain our membership of Erasmus, so that Brits can still go to European universities. We're going to try and remain as close as we can to the EU, so there will be simplified processes for people from there coming to work here. This isn't going to be fortress Britain, this is going to be the UK walking alongside the EU."
As reasonable and rational as that seems, the likes of Francois and Baker will scream bloody murder at the new PM and that's all it will take. Because of the parliamentary maths it also needs some amount of buy in from Labour, which isn't realistic.
If the party had dumped Theresa in 2017 after the disaster election and then installed a leader who was willing to say this we would have left the EU already. I fear the moment for reason and compromise has long passed in Parliament. Everyone is entrenched and can see no way back.
> @WhisperingOracle said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Brexit Party share was 30.52% for the UK. > > Was the earlier quote of 32 % before all the results were complete ?
> No crisis can ever be big enough to strip away the Brexit delusions? Somewhat genuine question, but perhaps for another discussion.
>
> You are literally part of the problem Robert is describing. That you don't see it isn't at all surprising given the brexit madness you seem to be suffering from.
------------------:
Whatever. I am slightly curious to know how you, Robert and Richard feel about voting for Corbyn, because he is the only major politician serious about a middle way deal with the EU right now.
I'd rather poke my own eyes out than vote for Corbyn. Honestly, I think I'd rather stay in than let Corbyn into Number 10.
I actually think it would be worthwhile for the new PM to bring Ken Clark back into the tent and maybe even the traitorous Grieve. We should try and find a solution to this that keeps as many people on side as possible. No deal just doesn't have a mandate. Neither does revoke. A second referendum will, IMO, ratchet up the pressure and make everything worse when in fact we should be cooling things down.
To be constructive, one of the things that ramps up the pressure is the feeling on both sides that this is the last chance. A compromise deal would have more chance of being accepted if it wasn't seen as final. Many on the EU side talk rather patronisingly about 'parking' the UK outside the EU institutions for a period while we sort ourselves out and decide what we want. Personally I don't like the sound of that but it has some logic to it.
The Brexit Party really needed to get closer to 40% than 30% in order to claim that things had really changed.
What do you mean? Things had changed from what to what?
What they have achieved is reminding people that just bacause leaving the EU is a minority opinion in the HofC, it isnt necessarily the case across the public.
The Brexit Party really needed to get closer to 40% than 30% in order to claim that things had really changed.
The only thing that has changed is that we have become more polarised. We are further from a resolution to the issue of our relationship with the EU than ever before.
> No crisis can ever be big enough to strip away the Brexit delusions? Somewhat genuine question, but perhaps for another discussion.
>
> You are literally part of the problem Robert is describing. That you don't see it isn't at all surprising given the brexit madness you seem to be suffering from.
------------------:
Whatever. I am slightly curious to know how you, Robert and Richard feel about voting for Corbyn, because he is the only major politician serious about a middle way deal with the EU right now.
I'd rather poke my own eyes out than vote for Corbyn. Honestly, I think I'd rather stay in than let Corbyn into Number 10.
The media narrative from the right before the election was that this could be a breakthrough for the Brexit Party outside the confines of the normal Tory core vote ; it hasn't worked out that way.
I actually think it would be worthwhile for the new PM to bring Ken Clark back into the tent and maybe even the traitorous Grieve. We should try and find a solution to this that keeps as many people on side as possible. No deal just doesn't have a mandate. Neither does revoke. A second referendum will, IMO, ratchet up the pressure and make everything worse when in fact we should be cooling things down.
To be constructive, one of the things that ramps up the pressure is the feeling on both sides that this is the last chance. A compromise deal would have more chance of being accepted if it wasn't seen as final. Many on the EU side talk rather patronisingly about 'parking' the UK outside the EU institutions for a period while we sort ourselves out and decide what we want. Personally I don't like the sound of that but it has some logic to it.
That pressure will eventually break out into the streets. Luckily leavers seems content with registering their displeasure at the ballot box and not in the streets. I fear that even that won't last much longer and talk of a second referendum will bring about a reckoning.
> @AndyJS said: > The Brexit Party really needed to get closer to 40% than 30% in order to claim that things had really changed.
Seems a bit arbitrary to proclaim 40% the magic number? I mean they won by 10% lead over the nearest party from nowhere. I'm no fan but this isn't politics as usual.
> @FF43 said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > you really do struggle with people having different opinions than you > > > > > > Not at all. Different opinions make discussion worthwhile. I could have prefixed my comment with a superfluous "I think" and perhaps add the remark that I, along with 96% ? (I forget the exact figure) of people think Brexit is not going well, therefore it's only a question of how Brexit fails and not whether it does so. > > > > Conflating those thinking it is not going well because of the politicians mishandling it with those who think it should fail is a very novel way of viewing polls. > > ++++++++ > > Fussy correction: is failing, not should fail. > > The difference between politicians finding the job impossible to do and the job being impossible to do may not be that huge, I suggest. It comes to the same thing in the end, in any case. I would also suggest politicians were incentivised to deliver Brexit and would have done so if it had been easy.
The job is not impossible for any individual politician. They simply have to accept that they need to enact the result of the referendum. This does not mean they have to be ardent No Dealers, simply that they need to accept a version of Brexit rather than trying to overturn the result. They have had ample opportunity to do this and the fact they have failed has nothing to do with it being difficult and everything to do with them pursuing their own agendas irrespective of the harm it does to the country and the democratic process.
> > > > you really do struggle with people having different opinions than you
> > >
> > > Not at all. Different opinions make discussion worthwhile. I could have prefixed my comment with a superfluous "I think" and perhaps add the remark that I, along with 96% ? (I forget the exact figure) of people think Brexit is not going well, therefore it's only a question of how Brexit fails and not whether it does so.
> >
> > Conflating those thinking it is not going well because of the politicians mishandling it with those who think it should fail is a very novel way of viewing polls.
>
> ++++++++
>
> Fussy correction: is failing, not should fail.
>
> The difference between politicians finding the job impossible to do and the job being impossible to do may not be that huge, I suggest. It comes to the same thing in the end, in any case. I would also suggest politicians were incentivised to deliver Brexit and would have done so if it had been easy.
The job is not impossible for any individual politician. They simply have to accept that they need to enact the result of the referendum. This does not mean they have to be ardent No Dealers, simply that they need to accept a version of Brexit rather than trying to overturn the result. They have had ample opportunity to do this and the fact they have failed has nothing to do with it being difficult and everything to do with them pursuing their own agendas irrespective of the harm it does to the country and the democratic process.
The Noel Edmond's Referendum of Deal or No Deal would solve it, why not try that?
> @FF43 said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @FF43 said: > > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change. > > > > > > > > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read. > > > > > > > > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc). > > > > > > > > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one. > > > > > > > > We cannot let that happen here. > > > > > > > > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well. > > > > > > > > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life. > > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> > > > > > > Brexit needs to fail definitively , so most people realise it was a mistake and don't hold onto the delusion that, if only X it would have been fine. It probably needs a real crisis to strip away the delusions, but you don't want that crisis to engulf everything. > > > > Never going to happen. You Remaniers have made sure the betrayal narrative is firmly in place and you will never be able to regain the trust of those who voted for Brexit believing the politicians were acting honestly. > > ---------- > > No crisis can ever be big enough to strip away the Brexit delusions? Somewhat genuine question, but perhaps for another discussion.
The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. They still think that overturning a democratic vote is a viable way of settling the issue.
The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. They still think that overturning a democratic vote is a viable way of settling the issue.
I've heard a ton of people advocate a People's Vote with the presumption that Remain will win. I don't think I've heard any one of them say what would happen next. They seem to share a delusion that it will put the EU issue to bed forever.
> @FF43 said: > > @MaxPB said: > > No crisis can ever be big enough to strip away the Brexit delusions? Somewhat genuine question, but perhaps for another discussion. > > > > You are literally part of the problem Robert is describing. That you don't see it isn't at all surprising given the brexit madness you seem to be suffering from. > > ------------------: > > Whatever. I am slightly curious to know how you, Robert and Richard feel about voting for Corbyn, because he is the only major politician serious about a middle way deal with the EU right now.
If you really believe that then your level of delusion is off the scale. Corbyn has no interest whatever in anything but destroying the Tories, Israel and the US.
"The new Conservative Leader needs to come out and say to the Leavers: "you will not get all you desire, but you will get the UK out of the EU. You will get an end to FoM. You will get us out of the CAP and the CFP. You will get an end ECJ supremacy over EU law. But this cannot simply be an exit for Nigel Farage, it has to be an exit that works for everyone."
And then they need to say to the Remainers: "Yes, I know you think it sucks that we're leaving the EU. But that is what the people voted for, and you see the strength of the Brexit Party vote last week. This genie will not be put back into the bottle. But let me give you something for your support: we're going to maintain our membership of Erasmus, so that Brits can still go to European universities. We're going to try and remain as close as we can to the EU, so there will be simplified processes for people from there coming to work here. This isn't going to be fortress Britain, this is going to be the UK walking alongside the EU."
The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. They still think that overturning a democratic vote is a viable way of settling the issue.
I've heard a ton of people advocate a People's Vote with the presumption that Remain will win. I don't think I've heard any one of them say what would happen next. They seem to share a delusion that it will put the EU issue to bed forever.
Indeed, apparently ~50% of the population will just quietly accept the result, same as they did...
The much vaunted far right surge in the EU didn’t happen . Of course very disappointing for the right wing media who were still desperately trying to peddle that narrative even though Liberals and the Greens did very well .
The stampede to the exit door forecast by Farage and co hasn’t happened , the right in France and Italy have dropped that and in the Netherlands the party there pushing for an exit got the sum total of 11% . In Spain the overhyped far right surge amounted to a massive 6% for Vox !
This of course makes uncomfortable reading for those Leavers desperate for some validation of Brexit , and for those who seem to yearn for the collapse of the EU .
The reality is the only union close to collapse is that of the UK.
Scotland and Northern Ireland once again said emphatically no to Brexit . Regardless of the desperate spin by Farage and co there is absolutely no mandate for no deal .
Now we have the unedifying spectacle of Tories parading themselves to the Membership to see who can be most anti EU , to promise no deal to satisfy the aged and unhinged World War 2 wannabes .
It’s really a tragic state of affairs where the population is effectively a hostage to the whims of 140,000 right wing bigots who yearn for the days of Miss Marple and some deluded notion of pure sovereignty .
> @FF43 said: > > @MaxPB said: > > No crisis can ever be big enough to strip away the Brexit delusions? Somewhat genuine question, but perhaps for another discussion. > > > > You are literally part of the problem Robert is describing. That you don't see it isn't at all surprising given the brexit madness you seem to be suffering from. > > ------------------: > > Whatever. I am slightly curious to know how you, Robert and Richard feel about voting for Corbyn, because he is the only major politician serious about a middle way deal with the EU right now.
It depends on whether he is serious or not. I am not tribal in my politics and have a deep contempt for the whole party system so the idea of not voting for someone because of their party (with the exception of the BNP types) seems daft to me.
Moreover I don't believe all the stereotypes that are perpetuated by the fanatics. Neither No Deal nor a Corbyn Government would be the end of the world. I am far more concerned about competence these days given how scarce it seems to be amongst our politicians. And Corbyn is just for a few years whereas the EU is for ever.
So if I could trust him to deliver a reasonable Brexit then I could hold my nose and vote for him even though it would probably cause me a few years of short term pain.
Right now the problem is I don't trust him any more than any of the others and don't actually think he is serious about the middle way - at least not as long as he threatens the Loser's Revote nonsense.
"The new Conservative Leader needs to come out and say to the Leavers: "you will not get all you desire, but you will get the UK out of the EU. You will get an end to FoM. You will get us out of the CAP and the CFP. You will get an end ECJ supremacy over EU law. But this cannot simply be an exit for Nigel Farage, it has to be an exit that works for everyone."
And then they need to say to the Remainers: "Yes, I know you think it sucks that we're leaving the EU. But that is what the people voted for, and you see the strength of the Brexit Party vote last week. This genie will not be put back into the bottle. But let me give you something for your support: we're going to maintain our membership of Erasmus, so that Brits can still go to European universities. We're going to try and remain as close as we can to the EU, so there will be simplified processes for people from there coming to work here. This isn't going to be fortress Britain, this is going to be the UK walking alongside the EU."
The people of Northern Ireland have made their views on the backstop absolutely clear. The Alliance party is non-sectarian and will have got a lot of its votes from middle class Protestants. Why not just give the Northern Irish the final say on the backstop and the border? It's them who will be affected by it, after all. If you do that, all the stuff about how appalling it is for NI to be treated differently etc just goes away.
I think if an orderly brexit is secured then it buys the government another 5 years to release the potential energy with tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts. We are a nation that is too heavily taxed at all points in life. There is no relief for middle income Britain, if you're poor you get tax credits, if you're rich you employ people to reduce your tax liability. Everyone else who plays by the rules gets shafted.
Brexit is nothing if not a project that demands the British state do more, so combining it with an agenda of tax cutting doesn't make much sense to me.
It is quite possible to cut taxes and No Deal. It just requires screwing all the older CDE voters in the old coalfields.
Indeed I am sure that is the plan. Its not just the Turkeys in Scunthorpe that voted for an early Christmas and stuffed themselves!
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @FF43 said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > I > > > > > > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one. > > > > > > We cannot let that happen here. > > > > > > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well. > > > > > > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life. > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> > > > > Brexit needs to fail definitively , so most people realise it was a mistake and don't hold onto the delusion that, if only X it would have been fine. It probably needs a real crisis to strip away the delusions, but you don't want that crisis to engulf everything. > > Never going to happen. You Remaniers have made sure the betrayal narrative is firmly in place and you will never be able to regain the trust of those who voted for Brexit believing the politicians were acting honestly.
There is a betrayal narrative on the other side too, though, Richard.
We were told by everyone on the Leave side that there would be a deal, that it would be easy etc. No Deal was never part of the Leave manifesto.
If a deal had been reached and voted for by Leave MPs I'd have lived with it, even if it was not my preferred solution.
But now, apparently, a No Deal Brexit is the only proper Brexit. So I feel betrayed by those who won the referendum on the basis of X, then did their damnedest to make sure that X did not succeed and now say that we have to suck up Y.
So I am not now prepared to trust those who are hijacking the referendum result to push their own particular version of Brexit contrary to what they said 3 years ago. I now think they were and are behaving dishonestly. If I am now much more Remainy than I ever was in 2016 it is because of the behaviour of the Leavers who have scuppered what they claimed to want and now want to drag Britain out of the EU with no plan and in a way which I think will cause great damage to this country.
Do not assume that because people like me don't go to rallies etc that we don't feel equally betrayed and angry at what is happening. Nor that this won't have political consequences.
> @isam said: > > @FF43 said: > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > > > > > you really do struggle with people having different opinions than you > > > > > > > > > > The job is not impossible for any individual politician. They simply have to accept that they need to enact the result of the referendum. This does not mean they have to be ardent No Dealers, simply that they need to accept a version of Brexit rather than trying to overturn the result. They have had ample opportunity to do this and the fact they have failed has nothing to do with it being difficult and everything to do with them pursuing their own agendas irrespective of the harm it does to the country and the democratic process. > > The Noel Edmond's Referendum of Deal or No Deal would solve it, why not try that?
The trouble is we've just had an election in which parties supporting Revoke got nearly 40% of the vote. You can't really have a referendum and omit the most popular alternative.
> > > > > you really do struggle with people having different opinions than you
>
> > > >
>
>
>
>
> The job is not impossible for any individual politician. They simply have to accept that they need to enact the result of the referendum. This does not mean they have to be ardent No Dealers, simply that they need to accept a version of Brexit rather than trying to overturn the result. They have had ample opportunity to do this and the fact they have failed has nothing to do with it being difficult and everything to do with them pursuing their own agendas irrespective of the harm it does to the country and the democratic process.
>
> The Noel Edmond's Referendum of Deal or No Deal would solve it, why not try that?
The trouble is we've just had an election in which parties supporting Revoke got nearly 40% of the vote. You can't really have a referendum and omit the most popular alternative.
Well that’s an argument, but I’d say the 2016 referendum needs to be honoured in some way, so maybe another referendum just isn’t viable.
> @nico67 said: > The much vaunted far right surge in the EU didn’t happen . Of course very disappointing for the right wing media who were still desperately trying to peddle that narrative even though Liberals and the Greens did very well . > > The stampede to the exit door forecast by Farage and co hasn’t happened , the right in France and Italy have dropped that and in the Netherlands the party there pushing for an exit got the sum total of 11% . In Spain the overhyped far right surge amounted to a massive 6% for Vox ! > > This of course makes uncomfortable reading for those Leavers desperate for some validation of Brexit , and for those who seem to yearn for the collapse of the EU . > > The reality is the only union close to collapse is that of the UK. > > Scotland and Northern Ireland once again said emphatically no to Brexit . Regardless of the desperate spin by Farage and co there is absolutely no mandate for no deal . > > Now we have the unedifying spectacle of Tories parading themselves to the Membership to see who can be most anti EU , to promise no deal to satisfy the aged and unhinged World War 2 wannabes . > > It’s really a tragic state of affairs where the population is effectively a hostage to the whims of 140,000 right wing bigots who yearn for the days of Miss Marple and some deluded notion of pure sovereignty .
Yep - I feel the pain of all those writers at the Telegraph, Mail and Spectator who have been gleefully telling us for months about the far right wave about to engulf Europe, where they are all Nazis, aren't they, only to discover that, er no, they're not.
On No Brexit, it's pretty clear that a third of the population want it and that the Tories have convinced themselves that gives them a mandate to impose it o the majority who do not. They will pay an extremely heavy price for this - as will the whole country, unfortunately.
A lot of people on both sides have persuaded themselves that a political disagreement is a conflict between the children of light and the children of darkness.
+++++++++++++++++
The new Conservative Leader needs to come out and say to the Leavers: "you will not get all you desire, but you will get the UK out of the EU. You will get an end to FoM. You will get us out of the CAP and the CFP. You will get an end ECJ supremacy over EU law. But this cannot simply be an exit for Nigel Farage, it has to be an exit that works for everyone."
And then they need to say to the Remainers: "Yes, I know you think it sucks that we're leaving the EU. But that is what the people voted for, and you see the strength of the Brexit Party vote last week. This genie will not be put back into the bottle. But let me give you something for your support: we're going to maintain our membership of Erasmus, so that Brits can still go to European universities. We're going to try and remain as close as we can to the EU, so there will be simplified processes for people from there coming to work here. This isn't going to be fortress Britain, this is going to be the UK walking alongside the EU."
Not good enough for either side. This is a fight to the death and Remain will win.
> > There is a betrayal narrative on the other side too, though, Richard. > > We were told by everyone on the Leave side that there would be a deal, that it would be easy etc. No Deal was never part of the Leave manifesto. > > If a deal had been reached and voted for by Leave MPs I'd have lived with it, even if it was not my preferred solution. > > But now, apparently, a No Deal Brexit is the only proper Brexit. So I feel betrayed by those who won the referendum on the basis of X, then did their damnedest to make sure that X did not succeed and now say that we have to suck up Y. > > So I am not now prepared to trust those who are hijacking the referendum result to push their own particular version of Brexit contrary to what they said 3 years ago. I now think they were and are behaving dishonestly. If I am now much more Remainy than I ever was in 2016 it is because of the behaviour of the Leavers who have scuppered what they claimed to want and now want to drag Britain out of the EU with no plan and in a way which I think will cause great damage to this country. > > Do not assume that because people like me don't go to rallies etc that we don't feel equally betrayed and angry at what is happening. Nor that this won't have political consequences.
I don't but then I am not advocating No Deal.
If you are advocating overturning the result of the referendum then you are no less of an extremist than those who are pressing for No Deal. You are as much a part of the problem as they are. It is those of us in the middle who have always advocated a soft Brexit who are the voice of reason, not those pushing for either revoke or the loser's revote.
> Incredible that the day after Farage and the Brexit Party win the EU election on a no deal platform by a thumping 12% majority the political class are ramping up their "second referendum" bullshit even more.
>
> They never learn...
>
A vote share of 31.6% is not a majority. You do the math.
On average, 26% of people made up their mind on the day. However, only 17% of those voting for the Brexit Party did so, while in contrast 35% of Green voters and 37% of Conservative voters did so. LD (24%) and Lab (27%) were close to the average. So clearly there was a late swing away from the Brexit Party which helped in particular the Greens and Conservatives. A rough calculation suggests that that on the day swing cost the Brexit Party 2-3% and added 1% to the Green and Con totals.
Polling companies cannot have picked up these decisions in their final polls, nor could they have been expected to. Factoring in the late swing makes the performance of the two best performing pollsters even more creditable (Ipsos.MORI and YouGov). It makes the performance of Survation even worse.
> @MaxPB said: > I actually think it would be worthwhile for the new PM to bring Ken Clark back into the tent and maybe even the traitorous Grieve. We should try and find a solution to this that keeps as many people on side as possible. No deal just doesn't have a mandate. Neither does revoke. A second referendum will, IMO, ratchet up the pressure and make everything worse when in fact we should be cooling things down. > > To be constructive, one of the things that ramps up the pressure is the feeling on both sides that this is the last chance. A compromise deal would have more chance of being accepted if it wasn't seen as final. Many on the EU side talk rather patronisingly about 'parking' the UK outside the EU institutions for a period while we sort ourselves out and decide what we want. Personally I don't like the sound of that but it has some logic to it. > > That pressure will eventually break out into the streets. Luckily leavers seems content with registering their displeasure at the ballot box and not in the streets. I fear that even that won't last much longer and talk of a second referendum will bring about a reckoning.
Hordes of Anne Widdecombes roaming the streets looking for trouble?
35% of 38% voted for No Deal parties. It's not exactly an uprising. 40% of 38% voted for Remain parties. Europe largely remains a minority interest in the UK.
> @Streeter said: > @Sean_F said: > > A lot of people on both sides have persuaded themselves that a political disagreement is a conflict between the children of light and the children of darkness. > > > > +++++++++++++++++ > > > > The new Conservative Leader needs to come out and say to the Leavers: "you will not get all you desire, but you will get the UK out of the EU. You will get an end to FoM. You will get us out of the CAP and the CFP. You will get an end ECJ supremacy over EU law. But this cannot simply be an exit for Nigel Farage, it has to be an exit that works for everyone." > > > > And then they need to say to the Remainers: "Yes, I know you think it sucks that we're leaving the EU. But that is what the people voted for, and you see the strength of the Brexit Party vote last week. This genie will not be put back into the bottle. But let me give you something for your support: we're going to maintain our membership of Erasmus, so that Brits can still go to European universities. We're going to try and remain as close as we can to the EU, so there will be simplified processes for people from there coming to work here. This isn't going to be fortress Britain, this is going to be the UK walking alongside the EU." > > Not good enough for either side. This is a fight to the death and Remain will win.
> @glw said: > The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. They still think that overturning a democratic vote is a viable way of settling the issue. > > I've heard a ton of people advocate a People's Vote with the presumption that Remain will win. I don't think I've heard any one of them say what would happen next. They seem to share a delusion that it will put the EU issue to bed forever. Nothing would happen, because Remain is the default, and we could stop this divisive crap and disband the DexEU and get on with our lives. The EU issue can then put itself to bed or not as it pleases, because we will never ever ever ever have a referendum on it, or anything else, ever again. If you want to regard that as a dystopian vision of the boot of everyone who just wants to get on with their bloody lives stamping on the face of Therwilloftherpeople forever, be my guest.
On average, 26% of people made up their mind on the day. However, only 17% of those voting for the Brexit Party did so, while in contrast 35% of Green voters and 37% of Conservative voters did so. LD (24%) and Lab (27%) were close to the average. So clearly there was a late swing away from the Brexit Party which helped in particular the Greens and Conservatives. A rough calculation suggests that that on the day swing cost the Brexit Party 2-3% and added 1% to the Green and Con totals.
Polling companies cannot have picked up these decisions in their final polls, nor could they have been expected to. Factoring in the late swing makes the performance of the two best performing pollsters even more creditable (Ipsos.MORI and YouGov). It makes the performance of Survation even worse.
Do we know the proportion of postal votes, and how this influences your theory?
> @Ishmael_Z said: > > @glw said: > > The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. They still think that overturning a democratic vote is a viable way of settling the issue. > > > > I've heard a ton of people advocate a People's Vote with the presumption that Remain will win. I don't think I've heard any one of them say what would happen next. They seem to share a delusion that it will put the EU issue to bed forever. > Nothing would happen, because Remain is the default, and we could stop this divisive crap and disband the DexEU and get on with our lives. The EU issue can then put itself to bed or not as it pleases, because we will never ever ever ever have a referendum on it, or anything else, ever again. If you want to regard that as a dystopian vision of the boot of everyone who just wants to get on with their bloody lives stamping on the face of Therwilloftherpeople forever, be my guest.
You really are deluded if you believe that. The world has changed and you can't put it back to the way you want it to be.
> @SouthamObserver said: > The people of Northern Ireland have made their views on the backstop absolutely clear. The Alliance party is non-sectarian and will have got a lot of its votes from middle class Protestants. Why not just give the Northern Irish the final say on the backstop and the border? It's them who will be affected by it, after all. If you do that, all the stuff about how appalling it is for NI to be treated differently etc just goes away.
I believe a German diplomat made this suggestion too.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > There is a betrayal narrative on the other side too, though, Richard. > > > > We were told by everyone on the Leave side that there would be a deal, that it would be easy etc. No Deal was never part of the Leave manifesto. > > > > If a deal had been reached and voted for by Leave MPs I'd have lived with it, even if it was not my preferred solution. > > > > But now, apparently, a No Deal Brexit is the only proper Brexit. So I feel betrayed by those who won the referendum on the basis of X, then did their damnedest to make sure that X did not succeed and now say that we have to suck up Y. > > > > So I am not now prepared to trust those who are hijacking the referendum result to push their own particular version of Brexit contrary to what they said 3 years ago. I now think they were and are behaving dishonestly. If I am now much more Remainy than I ever was in 2016 it is because of the behaviour of the Leavers who have scuppered what they claimed to want and now want to drag Britain out of the EU with no plan and in a way which I think will cause great damage to this country. > > > > Do not assume that because people like me don't go to rallies etc that we don't feel equally betrayed and angry at what is happening. Nor that this won't have political consequences. > > I don't but then I am not advocating No Deal. > > If you are advocating overturning the result of the referendum then you are no less of an extremist than those who are pressing for No Deal. You are as much a part of the problem as they are. It is those of us in the middle who have always advocated a soft Brexit who are the voice of reason, not those pushing for either revoke or the loser's revote.
I've already said that I could live with a soft Brexit. So no I am not an extremist. I want to avoid a No Deal Exit. If that is the option then I would prefer a referendum - because there is no mandate for a No Deal exit and it should get it.
Frankly, there is no clarity and the parties are all at sea. We should take a long pause to work out exactly what we want - not just in relation to a transition - but also in relation to the final arrangement with the EU. We need as a nation to work out our strategy vis-a-vis the EU. I have argued for this many many times below and above the line.
It won't happen. But if a minority insist on taking us out on a No Deal basis out of blind panic or because they are more interested in the fate of their party (and I fully accept that this is not your position) then I will support whatever will stop that. I am much more fearful of a No Deal exit and a Corbyn government than you are. Maybe I am wrong to think so. But that is my position: it has hardened in response to the behaviour of the ERG and others who have deliberately scuppered any attempt at compromise.
The trouble with everything being a crisis, is that if everything is crisis then really nothing is a crisis. You can't make everything your top priority.
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We should focus our efforts on a wide range of options.
(Was actually once said by a CEO of a company I invested in. Needless to say, it didn't end well.)
One of the bigger regional to international law firms used to use the line, “Everything Matters”. Their juniors took it to heart and sensible pragmatism went out of the window.
The figures behind that post-election Ashcroft poll are really fascinating, and explains a lot about the result. And perhaps why pollsters got the result wrong.
It suggests turnout among ABs was at general election level of 70%, whereas among everyone else it was under a third, with C2s really under-performing; white van man didn't come out to vote.
I've checked a few constituency demographics and it tallys well with reported turnout. This in itself pretty much completely explains the turnout differential between Remain and Leave constituencies. I understand now why my polling station had crap turnout.
What it does mean is that this election is the most Remainy it gets, a future General election or Referendum will contain far more strongly leave demographics.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. They still think that overturning a democratic vote is a viable way of settling the issue.
This crisis has been made by Leavers not willing to vote for compromise and not willing to take responsibility for the Brexit they campaigned for - instead trying to insist that Remainers impose Brexit on them so that they can continue to cry betrayal.
It is the most infantile behaviour I have ever seen.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Ishmael_Z said: > > > @glw said: > > > The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. They still think that overturning a democratic vote is a viable way of settling the issue. > > > > > > I've heard a ton of people advocate a People's Vote with the presumption that Remain will win. I don't think I've heard any one of them say what would happen next. They seem to share a delusion that it will put the EU issue to bed forever. > > Nothing would happen, because Remain is the default, and we could stop this divisive crap and disband the DexEU and get on with our lives. The EU issue can then put itself to bed or not as it pleases, because we will never ever ever ever have a referendum on it, or anything else, ever again. If you want to regard that as a dystopian vision of the boot of everyone who just wants to get on with their bloody lives stamping on the face of Therwilloftherpeople forever, be my guest. > > You really are deluded if you believe that. The world has changed and you can't put it back to the way you want it to be.
A lot of people on both sides have persuaded themselves that a political disagreement is a conflict between the children of light and the children of darkness.
+++++++++++++++++
The new Conservative Leader needs to come out and say to the Leavers: "you will not get all you desire, but you will get the UK out of the EU. You will get an end to FoM. You will get us out of the CAP and the CFP. You will get an end ECJ supremacy over EU law. But this cannot simply be an exit for Nigel Farage, it has to be an exit that works for everyone."
And then they need to say to the Remainers: "Yes, I know you think it sucks that we're leaving the EU. But that is what the people voted for, and you see the strength of the Brexit Party vote last week. This genie will not be put back into the bottle. But let me give you something for your support: we're going to maintain our membership of Erasmus, so that Brits can still go to European universities. We're going to try and remain as close as we can to the EU, so there will be simplified processes for people from there coming to work here. This isn't going to be fortress Britain, this is going to be the UK walking alongside the EU."
Got my vote. I'm sure there are a few more comforting Europesque geegaws in the jewelry box that could also be jangled for the remainers.
I'm pretty sure an end to FOM wasn't even ever really needed. Given that most of low-paid Britain is partly Government aided now, I think cutting off all out of and in work benefits would probably have proved enough for most people. But I think the chance to test that theory has probably passed.
> > I've already said that I could live with a soft Brexit. So no I am not an extremist. I want to avoid a No Deal Exit. If that is the option then I would prefer a referendum - because there is no mandate for a No Deal exit and it should get it. > > Frankly, there is no clarity and the parties are all at sea. We should take a long pause to work out exactly what we want - not just in relation to a transition - but also in relation to the final arrangement with the EU. We need as a nation to work out our strategy vis-a-vis the EU. I have argued for this many many times below and above the line. > > It won't happen. But if a minority insist on taking us out on a No Deal basis out of blind panic or because they are more interested in the fate of their party (and I fully accept that this is not your position) then I will support whatever will stop that. I am much more fearful of a No Deal exit and a Corbyn government than you are. Maybe I am wrong to think so. But that is my position: it has hardened in response to the behaviour of the ERG and others who have deliberately scuppered any attempt at compromise.
If we do not leave then a Corbyn Government is absolutely guaranteed. So which do you fear more?
If the remain side really wants any 2nd ref victory to be anything like final then something like STV will be needed to be implemented pdq. The forces of leave have a colossal structural advantage under FPTP.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. They still think that overturning a democratic vote is a viable way of settling the issue. > > This crisis has been made by Leavers not willing to vote for compromise and not willing to take responsibility for the Brexit they campaigned for - instead trying to insist that Remainers impose Brexit on them so that they can continue to cry betrayal. > > It is the most infantile behaviour I have ever seen.
Someone else who has a problem with Maths. 27 morons from the ERG voted against the deal. If the Remainers in Parliament had supported it then it would have passed overwhelmingly. But of course they didn't because they were more interested in stopping Brexit than actually serving the country.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > I've already said that I could live with a soft Brexit. So no I am not an extremist. I want to avoid a No Deal Exit. If that is the option then I would prefer a referendum - because there is no mandate for a No Deal exit and it should get it. > > > > Frankly, there is no clarity and the parties are all at sea. We should take a long pause to work out exactly what we want - not just in relation to a transition - but also in relation to the final arrangement with the EU. We need as a nation to work out our strategy vis-a-vis the EU. I have argued for this many many times below and above the line. > > > > It won't happen. But if a minority insist on taking us out on a No Deal basis out of blind panic or because they are more interested in the fate of their party (and I fully accept that this is not your position) then I will support whatever will stop that. I am much more fearful of a No Deal exit and a Corbyn government than you are. Maybe I am wrong to think so. But that is my position: it has hardened in response to the behaviour of the ERG and others who have deliberately scuppered any attempt at compromise. > > If we do not leave then a Corbyn Government is absolutely guaranteed. So which do you fear more?
In your black and white world maybe. In reality no party is likely to get a majority, and a Corbyn government will be a centre left rather than extreme left govt reigned in by other parties and the moderates within Labour.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > > The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. They still think that overturning a democratic vote is a viable way of settling the issue. > > > > This crisis has been made by Leavers not willing to vote for compromise and not willing to take responsibility for the Brexit they campaigned for - instead trying to insist that Remainers impose Brexit on them so that they can continue to cry betrayal. > > > > It is the most infantile behaviour I have ever seen. > > Someone else who has a problem with Maths. 27 morons from the ERG voted against the deal. If the Remainers in Parliament had supported it then it would have passed overwhelmingly. But of course they didn't because they were more interested in stopping Brexit than actually serving the country.
27 morons failed to vote for the deal. The opposition, however, performed the task they were given by their constituents (which is to oppose).
It is not the job of anyone bar a conservative MP to vote for a policy / law being implemented by a conservative Government.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > I've already said that I could live with a soft Brexit. So no I am not an extremist. I want to avoid a No Deal Exit. If that is the option then I would prefer a referendum - because there is no mandate for a No Deal exit and it should get it. > > > > Frankly, there is no clarity and the parties are all at sea. We should take a long pause to work out exactly what we want - not just in relation to a transition - but also in relation to the final arrangement with the EU. We need as a nation to work out our strategy vis-a-vis the EU. I have argued for this many many times below and above the line. > > > > It won't happen. But if a minority insist on taking us out on a No Deal basis out of blind panic or because they are more interested in the fate of their party (and I fully accept that this is not your position) then I will support whatever will stop that. I am much more fearful of a No Deal exit and a Corbyn government than you are. Maybe I am wrong to think so. But that is my position: it has hardened in response to the behaviour of the ERG and others who have deliberately scuppered any attempt at compromise. > > If we do not leave then a Corbyn Government is absolutely guaranteed. So which do you fear more?
I'm not sure I agree. But I think the most disastrous option is to have a No Deal exit followed by a Corbyn government. Which is what the Tories will be enabling.
To be perfectly honest if the government had followed your initial suggestion we'd be in a much better place. All options now are bad. It's a question of choosing the least worst one.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @MaxPB said: > > I actually think it would be worthwhile for the new PM to bring Ken Clark back into the tent and maybe even the traitorous Grieve. We should try and find a solution to this that keeps as many people on side as possible. No deal just doesn't have a mandate. Neither does revoke. A second referendum will, IMO, ratchet up the pressure and make everything worse when in fact we should be cooling things down. > > > > To be constructive, one of the things that ramps up the pressure is the feeling on both sides that this is the last chance. A compromise deal would have more chance of being accepted if it wasn't seen as final. Many on the EU side talk rather patronisingly about 'parking' the UK outside the EU institutions for a period while we sort ourselves out and decide what we want. Personally I don't like the sound of that but it has some logic to it. > > > > That pressure will eventually break out into the streets. Luckily leavers seems content with registering their displeasure at the ballot box and not in the streets. I fear that even that won't last much longer and talk of a second referendum will bring about a reckoning. > > Hordes of Anne Widdecombes roaming the streets looking for trouble? > > 35% of 38% voted for No Deal parties. It's not exactly an uprising. 40% of 38% voted for Remain parties. Europe largely remains a minority interest in the UK.
@SouthamObserver the hard Brexiteers managed fewer votes that signatures on the Revoke Petition. Enthusiasm for Brexit is shallow.
> @williamglenn said: > Naomi Long ended up winning the second seat in Northern Ireland after vote transfers. > > Stage 5 Quota 143,112: > > DUP 143,112 - Elected Diane Dodds > Alliance 170,370 - Elected Naomi Long > SF 152,436.5 - Elected Martina Anderson > TUV 90,079 - Jim Allister
Makes sense. The SF not going to get many transfers
Comments
But whatever, I'd like to ask you to tone down the condescension, mindset that anyone who disagrees with your politics is mentally ill, and mockery of mental illness please
> I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.
>
>
>
> It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.
>
>
>
> Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).
>
>
>
> But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.
>
>
>
> We cannot let that happen here.
>
>
>
> The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.
>
>
>
> Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.
>
> I think it boils down to a couple of things.
>
> 1. Both sides think they are right.
>
> 2. Both sides think the other is evil.
>
> The middle way seems to have been completely lost by the weak government and opposition and now Labour have to decide to play to the revoke tune and the Tories to Nigel's no deal tune. It's a disaster of our own making.
>
> We just have to hope that whoever becomes PM next is able to sell a positive vision of any kind and bring enough people with him or her.
>
> I honestly think a second referendum will just cause even more division and anger. If it's a narrow loss for Leave then you can bet 45% of the country will vote for Nige. If it's another victory for Leave then 45% of the country will feel completely alienated from the other half of the country.
>
> The only way forwards is for he new PM to sell the PM's deal to the nation and get a mandate for it with a GE. I don't see the EU making anything other than minor changes so it's literally going to be doing the job that Theresa was unable to do, sell the deal to the nation with a positive vision.
Not just a weak government but a government whose politicians were more interested in their own scheming but not willing to take any responsibility or do any work.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.
> >
> > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.
> >
> > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).
> >
> > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.
> >
> > We cannot let that happen here.
> >
> > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.
> >
> > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> Brexit needs to fail definitively , so most people realise it was a mistake and don't hold onto the delusion that, if only X it would have been fine. It probably needs a real crisis to strip away the delusions, but you don't want that crisis to engulf everything.
you really do struggle with people having different opinions than you
> I honestly think a second referendum will just cause even more division and anger. If it's a narrow loss for Leave then you can bet 45% of the country will vote for Nige. If it's another victory for Leave then 45% of the country will feel completely alienated from the other half of the country.
>
> The only way forwards is for he new PM to sell the PM's deal to the nation and get a mandate for it with a GE. I don't see the EU making anything other than minor changes so it's literally going to be doing the job that Theresa was unable to do, sell the deal to the nation with a positive vision.
>
> To use the analogy of a coiled spring, the referendum injected a huge amount of potential energy into our politics that needs to be dissipated in some way. A smooth, orderly Brexit will not do the trick, and will be seen as a betrayal by people who wanted to overturn the status quo - the spring will remain coiled.
>
> Something significant will have to break to provide the cathartic release we need to be able to move forwards, and my vote would be to break the union.
European of course
It's a slippery slope.
Especially when it's got milkshake spilled all over it.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @Chris said:
> > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > > @Chris said:
> > > > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > > > > @isam said:
> > > > > > > > @Byronic said:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Or am I misreading?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > ut one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The basis for the extension was that the WA was closed.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Since May announced her resignation the EU has been unanimous in saying that it will make no difference.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Why should they talk unless a new PM is proposing to negotiate on the basis of different red lines. Is that what the proposed candidates for PM are suggesting? No - they are all suggesting asking for things that have already been asked for and rejected, several times. So there will be no new negotiations.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > No deal is where the Tories are heading. They are doing so on the basis of the Brexit Party getting c. 32% of the vote. That is not a majority. They may well get a No Deal Brexit. But this will not be the end of the matter. An exit on such terms on the basis of a minority of the electorate has no consensus behind it.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The idea that getting to 1st November, being out of the EU and we can all then "move on" is for the birds.
> > > > >
> > > > > How easy will it be for a minority Tory prime minister to achieve No Deal, though - on the assumption that they won't want to risk a general election?
> > > >
> > > > Very easy. It's the legal default, as I understand it. They need do nothing.
> > > >
> > > > Someone said that apparently Geoffrey Cox had advised Mrs May that she could not deliver a No Deal Brexit if Parliament voted against it. But I don't know whether than would apply if there were no further votes in Parliament.
> > >
> > > I know it's the legal default if no one does anything. What I mean is, would the present House of Commons not try to stop it?
> >
> > How? If they're not sitting. They can do an EDM or something but there is nothing that they can do which would be binding. So at most it would be moral / political pressure.
>
> Not sitting when?
Over the summer and during most of September.
> > @Byronic said:
>
> > > @AndyJS said:
>
> > > African countries since independence have been the places that have suffered the most from this sort of tribalism. As soon as a party wins an election they think it means doling out money and favours to their own tribe and treating everyone else like second-class citizens. It's all about grabbing what you can in case the other side manages to get back in power in the future.<
>
> >
>
> > ++++
>
> >
>
> > Also Shia and Sunnis in the MENA
>
>
>
>
>
> And the Christian Democrats/Socialists in Italy - clientilismo.
>
> Labour over here with the Byzantine tax credits system they introduced. And the Tories with the triple lock for pensioners.
Triple locking pensions while simultaneously tripling student fees was as clear an example of transferring wealth from one group to another as you could wish to see.
> European of course
>
> No, the European union is here to stay. It's the rock on which the British union will break.
youre as predictable as Christmas on 25 December
> Seamus is back in then office now:
>
> https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1133048336972505088<;
+++++
Semantics. Of course Corbyn would prefer a GE, he wants to Leave AND be PM. But he's been sat on. The stuff about a GE is him squeaking. He is now pretty committed to a new vote
> > @isam said:
>
> > > @isam said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @isam said:
>
> > > > > @Byronic said:
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > > >
>
>
> >
>
> > > Course they would. (Smiles and backs away nervously.) You just rest there while I go and get us - erm - a cup of tea. Yes, that's it. I'll just get us a nice cup of tea and you sit there and keep perfectly calm.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Your material needs a lot of work!
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > It's OK. Don't panic. The tea's nearly ready. And in the meantime these nice men will make you comfortable. And secure.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > What was I saying about you being pompous? At least your lack of spine prevented you from laying me a bet on the back of your statistical "expertise", lucky for your wallet
>
>
>
> I've no idea what you're talking about. Are you confusing me with somebody else? Can you remember what this bet was supposed to be about?
>
> Your spread on BXP+UKIP vote %.
>
> But whatever, I'd like to ask you to tone down the condescension, mindset that anyone who disagrees with your politics is mentally ill, and mockery of mental illness please
> @isam said:
> > @isam said:
>
> > > @isam said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @isam said:
>
> > > > > @Byronic said:
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > > >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Your material needs a lot of work!
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > It's OK. Don't panic. The tea's nearly ready. And in the meantime these nice men will make you comfortable. And secure.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > What was I saying about you being pompous? At least your lack of spine prevented you from laying me a bet on the back of your statistical "expertise", lucky for your wallet
>
>
>
> I've no idea what you're talking about. Are you confusing me with somebody else? Can you remember what this bet was supposed to be about?
>
> Your spread on BXP+UKIP vote %.
>
> But whatever, I'd like to ask you to tone down the condescension, mindset that anyone who disagrees with your politics is mentally ill, and mockery of mental illness please
A spread bet on the BXP+UKIP percentage? What do you think I said it would be? Certainly I thought it was _possible_ the Brexit Party would go below 30% - and they very nearly did - but I'm sure I went no further than that.
I think you should lie down on that couch over there and tell me all about it.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.
> >
> > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.
> >
> > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).
> >
> > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.
> >
> > We cannot let that happen here.
> >
> > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.
> >
> > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> Brexit needs to fail definitively , so most people realise it was a mistake and don't hold onto the delusion that, if only X it would have been fine. It probably needs a real crisis to strip away the delusions, but you don't want that crisis to engulf everything.
Never going to happen. You Remaniers have made sure the betrayal narrative is firmly in place and you will never be able to regain the trust of those who voted for Brexit believing the politicians were acting honestly.
> > @Chris said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > @Chris said:
> > > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > > > @Chris said:
> > > > > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > > > > > @isam said:
> > > > > > > > > @Byronic said:
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > OK..... Corbyn seems to have come out for a 2nd ref
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1133038998102958082
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Lots of waffle about a GE, but also a pretty firm commitment to a vote.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Or am I misreading?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > ut one being done? Surely the EU would negotiate with a new PM
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > The basis for the extension was that the WA was closed.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Since May announced her resignation the EU has been unanimous in saying that it will make no difference.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Why should they talk unless a new PM is proposing to negotiate on the basis of different red lines. Is that what the proposed candidates for PM are suggesting? No - they are all suggesting asking for things that have already been asked for and rejected, several times. So there will be no new negotiations.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > No deal is where the Tories are heading. They are doing so on the basis of the Brexit Party getting c. 32% of the vote. That is not a majority. They may well get a No Deal Brexit. But this will not be the end of the matter. An exit on such terms on the basis of a minority of the electorate has no consensus behind it.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > The idea that getting to 1st November, being out of the EU and we can all then "move on" is for the birds.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > How easy will it be for a minority Tory prime minister to achieve No Deal, though - on the assumption that they won't want to risk a general election?
> > > > >
> > > > > Very easy. It's the legal default, as I understand it. They need do nothing.
> > > > >
> > > > > Someone said that apparently Geoffrey Cox had advised Mrs May that she could not deliver a No Deal Brexit if Parliament voted against it. But I don't know whether than would apply if there were no further votes in Parliament.
> > > >
> > > > I know it's the legal default if no one does anything. What I mean is, would the present House of Commons not try to stop it?
> > >
> > > How? If they're not sitting. They can do an EDM or something but there is nothing that they can do which would be binding. So at most it would be moral / political pressure.
> >
> > Not sitting when?
>
> Over the summer and during most of September.
>
>
OK. I was thinking of the current deadline - the end of October.
> Well I did say that the Brexit vote was a long term disaster, an inflexion point. I’ve seen nothing to change my mind yet.
And you have been happy to play your part making sure that was the case.
Anyway, you seem like a thoroughly nasty piece of work. We can all be, but I'd rather not get into trading personal insults anymore with people I don't know, and whose circumstances I don't know. It always looks so petty on reflection.
> > @FF43 said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.
> > >
> > > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.
> > >
> > > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).
> > >
> > > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.
> > >
> > > We cannot let that happen here.
> > >
> > > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.
> > >
> > > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >
> > Brexit needs to fail definitively , so most people realise it was a mistake and don't hold onto the delusion that, if only X it would have been fine. It probably needs a real crisis to strip away the delusions, but you don't want that crisis to engulf everything.
>
> you really do struggle with people having different opinions than you
+++++++++++
Not at all. Different opinions make discussion worthwhile. I could have prefixed my comment with a superfluous "I think" and perhaps add the remark that I, along with 96% ? (I forget the exact figure) of people think Brexit is not going well, therefore it's only a question of how Brexit fails and not whether it does so.
> > @Alanbrooke said:
> > > @FF43 said:
> > > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.
> > > >
> > > > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.
> > > >
> > > > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).
> > > >
> > > > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.
> > > >
> > > > We cannot let that happen here.
> > > >
> > > > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.
> > > >
> > > > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.
> > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> > >
> > > Brexit needs to fail definitively , so most people realise it was a mistake and don't hold onto the delusion that, if only X it would have been fine. It probably needs a real crisis to strip away the delusions, but you don't want that crisis to engulf everything.
> >
> > you really do struggle with people having different opinions than you
>
> +++++++++++
>
> Not at all. Different opinions make discussion worthwhile. I could have prefixed my comment with a superfluous "I think" and perhaps add the remark that I, along with 96% ? (I forget the exact figure) of people think Brexit is not going well, therefore it's only a question of how Brexit fails and not whether it does so.
Conflating those thinking it is not going well because of the politicians mishandling it with those who think it should fail is a very novel way of viewing polls.
> I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.
>
>
>
> It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.
>
>
>
> Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).
>
>
>
> But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.
>
>
>
> We cannot let that happen here.
>
>
>
> The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.
>
>
>
> Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.
>
> I think it boils down to a couple of things.
>
> 1. Both sides think they are right.
>
> 2. Both sides think the other is evil.
>
> The middle way seems to have been completely lost by the weak government and opposition and now Labour have to decide to play to the revoke tune and the Tories to Nigel's no deal tune. It's a disaster of our own making.
>
> We just have to hope that whoever becomes PM next is able to sell a positive vision of any kind and bring enough people with him or her.
>
> I honestly think a second referendum will just cause even more division and anger. If it's a narrow loss for Leave then you can bet 45% of the country will vote for Nige. If it's another victory for Leave then 45% of the country will feel completely alienated from the other half of the country.
>
> The only way forwards is for he new PM to sell the PM's deal to the nation and get a mandate for it with a GE. I don't see the EU making anything other than minor changes so it's literally going to be doing the job that Theresa was unable to do, sell the deal to the nation with a positive vision.
A lot of people on both sides have persuaded themselves that a political disagreement is a conflict between the children of light and the children of darkness.
> > @MaxPB said:
> > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.
> >
> >
> >
> > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.
> >
> >
> >
> > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).
> >
> >
> >
> > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.
> >
> >
> >
> > We cannot let that happen here.
> >
> >
> >
> > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.
> >
> >
> >
> > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.
> >
> > I think it boils down to a couple of things.
> >
> > 1. Both sides think they are right.
> >
> > 2. Both sides think the other is evil.
> >
> > The middle way seems to have been completely lost by the weak government and opposition and now Labour have to decide to play to the revoke tune and the Tories to Nigel's no deal tune. It's a disaster of our own making.
> >
> > We just have to hope that whoever becomes PM next is able to sell a positive vision of any kind and bring enough people with him or her.
> >
> > I honestly think a second referendum will just cause even more division and anger. If it's a narrow loss for Leave then you can bet 45% of the country will vote for Nige. If it's another victory for Leave then 45% of the country will feel completely alienated from the other half of the country.
> >
> > The only way forwards is for he new PM to sell the PM's deal to the nation and get a mandate for it with a GE. I don't see the EU making anything other than minor changes so it's literally going to be doing the job that Theresa was unable to do, sell the deal to the nation with a positive vision.
>
> A lot of people on both sides have persuaded themselves that a political disagreement is a conflict between the children of light and the children of darkness.
yes its ridiculous
in or out life goes on and people are still the same
> > @FF43 said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.
> > >
> > > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.
> > >
> > > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).
> > >
> > > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.
> > >
> > > We cannot let that happen here.
> > >
> > > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.
> > >
> > > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >
> > Brexit needs to fail definitively , so most people realise it was a mistake and don't hold onto the delusion that, if only X it would have been fine. It probably needs a real crisis to strip away the delusions, but you don't want that crisis to engulf everything.
>
> Never going to happen. You Remaniers have made sure the betrayal narrative is firmly in place and you will never be able to regain the trust of those who voted for Brexit believing the politicians were acting honestly.
----------
No crisis can ever be big enough to strip away the Brexit delusions? Somewhat genuine question, but perhaps for another discussion.
> >
>
> > Your spread on BXP+UKIP vote %.
>
> >
>
> > But whatever, I'd like to ask you to tone down the condescension, mindset that anyone who disagrees with your politics is mentally ill, and mockery of mental illness please
>
>
>
> A spread bet on the BXP+UKIP percentage? What do you think I said it would be? Certainly I thought it was _possible_ the Brexit Party would go below 30% - and they very nearly did - but I'm sure I went no further than that.
>
>
>
> I think you should like down on that couch over there and tell me all about it.
>
> I asked for your spread price, you didnt say but I think you'd said low 20s for BXP
No, I didn't say that. I think I said the Brexit Party percentages _in some individual regions_ might suggest mid 20s, but for the country as a whole what I thought was that it might go below 30%. And I'm pretty sure I never expressed any opinion about the UKIP percentage.
Given your tendency to be pretty insulting to people on the basis of having misremembered and/or misspoken, I don't think you can complain about a bit of light-hearted ribbing. It certainly doesn't call for pomposity. ;-)
> > > you really do struggle with people having different opinions than you
> >
> > Not at all. Different opinions make discussion worthwhile. I could have prefixed my comment with a superfluous "I think" and perhaps add the remark that I, along with 96% ? (I forget the exact figure) of people think Brexit is not going well, therefore it's only a question of how Brexit fails and not whether it does so.
>
> Conflating those thinking it is not going well because of the politicians mishandling it with those who think it should fail is a very novel way of viewing polls.
++++++++
Fussy correction: is failing, not should fail.
The difference between politicians finding the job impossible to do and the job being impossible to do may not be that huge, I suggest. It comes to the same thing in the end, in any case. I would also suggest politicians were incentivised to deliver Brexit and would have done so if it had been easy.
> > @isam said:
>
> > > Your spread on BXP+UKIP vote %.
>
> > > But whatever, I'd like to ask you to tone down the condescension, mindset that anyone who disagrees with your politics is mentally ill, and mockery of mental illness please
>
> > A spread bet on the BXP+UKIP percentage? What do you think I said it would be? Certainly I thought it was _possible_ the Brexit Party would go below 30% - and they very nearly did - but I'm sure I went no further than that.
> > I think you should like down on that couch over there and tell me all about it.
> > I asked for your spread price, you didnt say but I think you'd said low 20s for BXP
>
>
>
> No, I didn't say that. I think I said the Brexit Party percentages _in some individual regions_ might suggest mid 20s, but for the country as a whole what I thought was that it might go below 30%. And I'm pretty sure I never expressed any opinion about the UKIP percentage.
>
>
>
> Given your tendency to be pretty insulting to people on the basis of having misremembered and/or misspoken, I don't think you can complain about a bit of light-hearted ribbing. It certainly doesn't call for pomposity. ;-)
>
> Just leave it, if you can.
Sure - I'm happy to leave you with the last word.
Oh, damn ...
> A lot of people on both sides have persuaded themselves that a political disagreement is a conflict between the children of light and the children of darkness.
What's your opinion on the parentage of Sinn Fein & their supporters?
Nowadays nothing is ever simply a problem, with multiple possible choices of action, leading to different outcomes with different pros and cons. Everything is a crisis, everything demands immediate drastic action, where no price is too high, and anyone who has an opposing view is not just wrong, but wicked too.
The trouble with everything being a crisis, is that if everything is crisis then really nothing is a crisis. You can't make everything your top priority.
There are way bigger problems facing the UK than Brexit. Brexit is the sort of thing that a commission and few votes in the commons ought to decide, plus a few years of implementation. If Parliament had respected the vote we should be out now, with a sensible transition under way, and a constructive negotiation on future relations with the EU taking place.
A lot of people on both sides have persuaded themselves that a political disagreement is a conflict between the children of light and the children of darkness.
+++++++++++++++++
The new Conservative Leader needs to come out and say to the Leavers: "you will not get all you desire, but you will get the UK out of the EU. You will get an end to FoM. You will get us out of the CAP and the CFP. You will get an end ECJ supremacy over EU law. But this cannot simply be an exit for Nigel Farage, it has to be an exit that works for everyone."
And then they need to say to the Remainers: "Yes, I know you think it sucks that we're leaving the EU. But that is what the people voted for, and you see the strength of the Brexit Party vote last week. This genie will not be put back into the bottle. But let me give you something for your support: we're going to maintain our membership of Erasmus, so that Brits can still go to European universities. We're going to try and remain as close as we can to the EU, so there will be simplified processes for people from there coming to work here. This isn't going to be fortress Britain, this is going to be the UK walking alongside the EU."
I actually think it would be worthwhile for the new PM to bring Ken Clark back into the tent and maybe even the traitorous Grieve. We should try and find a solution to this that keeps as many people on side as possible. No deal just doesn't have a mandate. Neither does revoke. A second referendum will, IMO, ratchet up the pressure and make everything worse when in fact we should be cooling things down.
The trouble with everything being a crisis, is that if everything is crisis then really nothing is a crisis. You can't make everything your top priority.
++++++++++++
We should focus our efforts on a wide range of options.
(Was actually once said by a CEO of a company I invested in. Needless to say, it didn't end well.)
> No crisis can ever be big enough to strip away the Brexit delusions? Somewhat genuine question, but perhaps for another discussion.
>
> You are literally part of the problem Robert is describing. That you don't see it isn't at all surprising given the brexit madness you seem to be suffering from.
------------------:
Whatever. I am slightly curious to know how you, Robert and Richard feel about voting for Corbyn, because he is the only major politician serious about a middle way deal with the EU right now.
> Brexit Party share was 30.52% for the UK.
Was the earlier quote of 32 % before all the results were complete ?
If the party had dumped Theresa in 2017 after the disaster election and then installed a leader who was willing to say this we would have left the EU already. I fear the moment for reason and compromise has long passed in Parliament. Everyone is entrenched and can see no way back.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Brexit Party share was 30.52% for the UK.
>
> Was the earlier quote of 32 % before all the results were complete ?
Without NI I believe.
What they have achieved is reminding people that just bacause leaving the EU is a minority opinion in the HofC, it isnt necessarily the case across the public.
> The Brexit Party really needed to get closer to 40% than 30% in order to claim that things had really changed.
Seems a bit arbitrary to proclaim 40% the magic number? I mean they won by 10% lead over the nearest party from nowhere. I'm no fan but this isn't politics as usual.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
>
> > > > you really do struggle with people having different opinions than you
> > >
> > > Not at all. Different opinions make discussion worthwhile. I could have prefixed my comment with a superfluous "I think" and perhaps add the remark that I, along with 96% ? (I forget the exact figure) of people think Brexit is not going well, therefore it's only a question of how Brexit fails and not whether it does so.
> >
> > Conflating those thinking it is not going well because of the politicians mishandling it with those who think it should fail is a very novel way of viewing polls.
>
> ++++++++
>
> Fussy correction: is failing, not should fail.
>
> The difference between politicians finding the job impossible to do and the job being impossible to do may not be that huge, I suggest. It comes to the same thing in the end, in any case. I would also suggest politicians were incentivised to deliver Brexit and would have done so if it had been easy.
The job is not impossible for any individual politician. They simply have to accept that they need to enact the result of the referendum. This does not mean they have to be ardent No Dealers, simply that they need to accept a version of Brexit rather than trying to overturn the result. They have had ample opportunity to do this and the fact they have failed has nothing to do with it being difficult and everything to do with them pursuing their own agendas irrespective of the harm it does to the country and the democratic process.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @FF43 said:
> > > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > I've been reading the new Jared Diamond book, Upheaval, about how countries deal with crisis and change.
> > > >
> > > > It's not his best work, but it's still an interesting read.
> > > >
> > > > Now, the chapter that's really sticking with me is the one on Chile. Essentially, in the run up to Pinochet, you had governments that increasingly chose to run the country for "their" group, and not the country as a whole. There was a series of ever greater oscillations, which resulted in (eventually) a military coup, and a seriously unpleasant dictator. Reading the book, you can see why so many Chileans were willing to back Pinochet over Allande (people forget the hyperinflation, the collapsing real wages, the nationalisations without compensation, etc).
> > > >
> > > > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.
> > > >
> > > > We cannot let that happen here.
> > > >
> > > > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.
> > > >
> > > > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.
> > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> > >
> > > Brexit needs to fail definitively , so most people realise it was a mistake and don't hold onto the delusion that, if only X it would have been fine. It probably needs a real crisis to strip away the delusions, but you don't want that crisis to engulf everything.
> >
> > Never going to happen. You Remaniers have made sure the betrayal narrative is firmly in place and you will never be able to regain the trust of those who voted for Brexit believing the politicians were acting honestly.
>
> ----------
>
> No crisis can ever be big enough to strip away the Brexit delusions? Somewhat genuine question, but perhaps for another discussion.
The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. They still think that overturning a democratic vote is a viable way of settling the issue.
> > @MaxPB said:
> > No crisis can ever be big enough to strip away the Brexit delusions? Somewhat genuine question, but perhaps for another discussion.
> >
> > You are literally part of the problem Robert is describing. That you don't see it isn't at all surprising given the brexit madness you seem to be suffering from.
>
> ------------------:
>
> Whatever. I am slightly curious to know how you, Robert and Richard feel about voting for Corbyn, because he is the only major politician serious about a middle way deal with the EU right now.
If you really believe that then your level of delusion is off the scale. Corbyn has no interest whatever in anything but destroying the Tories, Israel and the US.
"The new Conservative Leader needs to come out and say to the Leavers: "you will not get all you desire, but you will get the UK out of the EU. You will get an end to FoM. You will get us out of the CAP and the CFP. You will get an end ECJ supremacy over EU law. But this cannot simply be an exit for Nigel Farage, it has to be an exit that works for everyone."
And then they need to say to the Remainers: "Yes, I know you think it sucks that we're leaving the EU. But that is what the people voted for, and you see the strength of the Brexit Party vote last week. This genie will not be put back into the bottle. But let me give you something for your support: we're going to maintain our membership of Erasmus, so that Brits can still go to European universities. We're going to try and remain as close as we can to the EU, so there will be simplified processes for people from there coming to work here. This isn't going to be fortress Britain, this is going to be the UK walking alongside the EU."
.......................................................................................
You are Theresa May and I claim in 9% in a nationwide vote.
Ooppps .....
The stampede to the exit door forecast by Farage and co hasn’t happened , the right in France and Italy have dropped that and in the Netherlands the party there pushing for an exit got the sum total of 11% . In Spain the overhyped far right surge amounted to a massive 6% for Vox !
This of course makes uncomfortable reading for those Leavers desperate for some validation of Brexit , and for those who seem to yearn for the collapse of the EU .
The reality is the only union close to collapse is that of the UK.
Scotland and Northern Ireland once again said emphatically no to Brexit . Regardless of the desperate spin by Farage and co there is absolutely no mandate for no deal .
Now we have the unedifying spectacle of Tories parading themselves to the Membership to see who can be most anti EU , to promise no deal to satisfy the aged and unhinged World War 2 wannabes .
It’s really a tragic state of affairs where the population is effectively a hostage to the whims of 140,000 right wing bigots who yearn for the days of Miss Marple and some deluded notion of pure sovereignty .
> > @MaxPB said:
> > No crisis can ever be big enough to strip away the Brexit delusions? Somewhat genuine question, but perhaps for another discussion.
> >
> > You are literally part of the problem Robert is describing. That you don't see it isn't at all surprising given the brexit madness you seem to be suffering from.
>
> ------------------:
>
> Whatever. I am slightly curious to know how you, Robert and Richard feel about voting for Corbyn, because he is the only major politician serious about a middle way deal with the EU right now.
It depends on whether he is serious or not. I am not tribal in my politics and have a deep contempt for the whole party system so the idea of not voting for someone because of their party (with the exception of the BNP types) seems daft to me.
Moreover I don't believe all the stereotypes that are perpetuated by the fanatics. Neither No Deal nor a Corbyn Government would be the end of the world. I am far more concerned about competence these days given how scarce it seems to be amongst our politicians. And Corbyn is just for a few years whereas the EU is for ever.
So if I could trust him to deliver a reasonable Brexit then I could hold my nose and vote for him even though it would probably cause me a few years of short term pain.
Right now the problem is I don't trust him any more than any of the others and don't actually think he is serious about the middle way - at least not as long as he threatens the Loser's Revote nonsense.
Indeed I am sure that is the plan. Its not just the Turkeys in Scunthorpe that voted for an early Christmas and stuffed themselves!
> > @FF43 said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > I
> > >
> > > But the fundamental issue was that the Chilean government (or either stripe) stopped thinking the government was there for the whole country, and thought it a mechanism for rewarding their clan, and (even) punishing the other one.
> > >
> > > We cannot let that happen here.
> > >
> > > The Euro elections were not a decisive victory for No Deal Brexit. Nor were they a clear indication that the people now want us to revoke. They were the howl of a country becoming ever more riven between extremes. If we follow either, we risk the oscillations become ever greater. That does not end well.
> > >
> > > Yes, I know I've banged this drum for a long time. But I'm genuinely scared for the UK for the first time in my adult life.
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >
> > Brexit needs to fail definitively , so most people realise it was a mistake and don't hold onto the delusion that, if only X it would have been fine. It probably needs a real crisis to strip away the delusions, but you don't want that crisis to engulf everything.
>
> Never going to happen. You Remaniers have made sure the betrayal narrative is firmly in place and you will never be able to regain the trust of those who voted for Brexit believing the politicians were acting honestly.
There is a betrayal narrative on the other side too, though, Richard.
We were told by everyone on the Leave side that there would be a deal, that it would be easy etc. No Deal was never part of the Leave manifesto.
If a deal had been reached and voted for by Leave MPs I'd have lived with it, even if it was not my preferred solution.
But now, apparently, a No Deal Brexit is the only proper Brexit. So I feel betrayed by those who won the referendum on the basis of X, then did their damnedest to make sure that X did not succeed and now say that we have to suck up Y.
So I am not now prepared to trust those who are hijacking the referendum result to push their own particular version of Brexit contrary to what they said 3 years ago. I now think they were and are behaving dishonestly. If I am now much more Remainy than I ever was in 2016 it is because of the behaviour of the Leavers who have scuppered what they claimed to want and now want to drag Britain out of the EU with no plan and in a way which I think will cause great damage to this country.
Do not assume that because people like me don't go to rallies etc that we don't feel equally betrayed and angry at what is happening. Nor that this won't have political consequences.
> > @FF43 said:
>
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
>
> >
>
> > > > > you really do struggle with people having different opinions than you
>
> > > >
>
>
>
>
> The job is not impossible for any individual politician. They simply have to accept that they need to enact the result of the referendum. This does not mean they have to be ardent No Dealers, simply that they need to accept a version of Brexit rather than trying to overturn the result. They have had ample opportunity to do this and the fact they have failed has nothing to do with it being difficult and everything to do with them pursuing their own agendas irrespective of the harm it does to the country and the democratic process.
>
> The Noel Edmond's Referendum of Deal or No Deal would solve it, why not try that?
The trouble is we've just had an election in which parties supporting Revoke got nearly 40% of the vote. You can't really have a referendum and omit the most popular alternative.
A long way behind the leaders, but still...
Has Robert Smithson ever been seen in a pair of leopard pattern high heel shoes? .....
The worlds greatest political forum in on tenterhooks .....
> The much vaunted far right surge in the EU didn’t happen . Of course very disappointing for the right wing media who were still desperately trying to peddle that narrative even though Liberals and the Greens did very well .
>
> The stampede to the exit door forecast by Farage and co hasn’t happened , the right in France and Italy have dropped that and in the Netherlands the party there pushing for an exit got the sum total of 11% . In Spain the overhyped far right surge amounted to a massive 6% for Vox !
>
> This of course makes uncomfortable reading for those Leavers desperate for some validation of Brexit , and for those who seem to yearn for the collapse of the EU .
>
> The reality is the only union close to collapse is that of the UK.
>
> Scotland and Northern Ireland once again said emphatically no to Brexit . Regardless of the desperate spin by Farage and co there is absolutely no mandate for no deal .
>
> Now we have the unedifying spectacle of Tories parading themselves to the Membership to see who can be most anti EU , to promise no deal to satisfy the aged and unhinged World War 2 wannabes .
>
> It’s really a tragic state of affairs where the population is effectively a hostage to the whims of 140,000 right wing bigots who yearn for the days of Miss Marple and some deluded notion of pure sovereignty .
Yep - I feel the pain of all those writers at the Telegraph, Mail and Spectator who have been gleefully telling us for months about the far right wave about to engulf Europe, where they are all Nazis, aren't they, only to discover that, er no, they're not.
On No Brexit, it's pretty clear that a third of the population want it and that the Tories have convinced themselves that gives them a mandate to impose it o the majority who do not. They will pay an extremely heavy price for this - as will the whole country, unfortunately.
>
> There is a betrayal narrative on the other side too, though, Richard.
>
> We were told by everyone on the Leave side that there would be a deal, that it would be easy etc. No Deal was never part of the Leave manifesto.
>
> If a deal had been reached and voted for by Leave MPs I'd have lived with it, even if it was not my preferred solution.
>
> But now, apparently, a No Deal Brexit is the only proper Brexit. So I feel betrayed by those who won the referendum on the basis of X, then did their damnedest to make sure that X did not succeed and now say that we have to suck up Y.
>
> So I am not now prepared to trust those who are hijacking the referendum result to push their own particular version of Brexit contrary to what they said 3 years ago. I now think they were and are behaving dishonestly. If I am now much more Remainy than I ever was in 2016 it is because of the behaviour of the Leavers who have scuppered what they claimed to want and now want to drag Britain out of the EU with no plan and in a way which I think will cause great damage to this country.
>
> Do not assume that because people like me don't go to rallies etc that we don't feel equally betrayed and angry at what is happening. Nor that this won't have political consequences.
I don't but then I am not advocating No Deal.
If you are advocating overturning the result of the referendum then you are no less of an extremist than those who are pressing for No Deal. You are as much a part of the problem as they are. It is those of us in the middle who have always advocated a soft Brexit who are the voice of reason, not those pushing for either revoke or the loser's revote.
"@rcs1000 says it much better than Theresa May said it, though."
..............................................................................................
Is Robert a shoe-in as Theresa May Plus Plus ? .....
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/05/my-euro-election-post-vote-poll-most-tory-switchers-say-they-will-stay-with-their-new-party/#more-15953
On average, 26% of people made up their mind on the day. However, only 17% of those voting for the Brexit Party did so, while in contrast 35% of Green voters and 37% of Conservative voters did so. LD (24%) and Lab (27%) were close to the average. So clearly there was a late swing away from the Brexit Party which helped in particular the Greens and Conservatives. A rough calculation suggests that that on the day swing cost the Brexit Party 2-3% and added 1% to the Green and Con totals.
Polling companies cannot have picked up these decisions in their final polls, nor could they have been expected to. Factoring in the late swing makes the performance of the two best performing pollsters even more creditable (Ipsos.MORI and YouGov). It makes the performance of Survation even worse.
> I actually think it would be worthwhile for the new PM to bring Ken Clark back into the tent and maybe even the traitorous Grieve. We should try and find a solution to this that keeps as many people on side as possible. No deal just doesn't have a mandate. Neither does revoke. A second referendum will, IMO, ratchet up the pressure and make everything worse when in fact we should be cooling things down.
>
> To be constructive, one of the things that ramps up the pressure is the feeling on both sides that this is the last chance. A compromise deal would have more chance of being accepted if it wasn't seen as final. Many on the EU side talk rather patronisingly about 'parking' the UK outside the EU institutions for a period while we sort ourselves out and decide what we want. Personally I don't like the sound of that but it has some logic to it.
>
> That pressure will eventually break out into the streets. Luckily leavers seems content with registering their displeasure at the ballot box and not in the streets. I fear that even that won't last much longer and talk of a second referendum will bring about a reckoning.
Hordes of Anne Widdecombes roaming the streets looking for trouble?
35% of 38% voted for No Deal parties. It's not exactly an uprising. 40% of 38% voted for Remain parties. Europe largely remains a minority interest in the UK.
> @Sean_F said:
>
> A lot of people on both sides have persuaded themselves that a political disagreement is a conflict between the children of light and the children of darkness.
>
>
>
> +++++++++++++++++
>
>
>
> The new Conservative Leader needs to come out and say to the Leavers: "you will not get all you desire, but you will get the UK out of the EU. You will get an end to FoM. You will get us out of the CAP and the CFP. You will get an end ECJ supremacy over EU law. But this cannot simply be an exit for Nigel Farage, it has to be an exit that works for everyone."
>
>
>
> And then they need to say to the Remainers: "Yes, I know you think it sucks that we're leaving the EU. But that is what the people voted for, and you see the strength of the Brexit Party vote last week. This genie will not be put back into the bottle. But let me give you something for your support: we're going to maintain our membership of Erasmus, so that Brits can still go to European universities. We're going to try and remain as close as we can to the EU, so there will be simplified processes for people from there coming to work here. This isn't going to be fortress Britain, this is going to be the UK walking alongside the EU."
>
> Not good enough for either side. This is a fight to the death and Remain will win.
And then they will lose along with everyone else.
How can the UK have negotiations with a new EU commission when that’s not chosen till after the UK leaves.
So to do that you need an extension which is clearly heresy now !
> The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. They still think that overturning a democratic vote is a viable way of settling the issue.
>
> I've heard a ton of people advocate a People's Vote with the presumption that Remain will win. I don't think I've heard any one of them say what would happen next. They seem to share a delusion that it will put the EU issue to bed forever.
Nothing would happen, because Remain is the default, and we could stop this divisive crap and disband the DexEU and get on with our lives. The EU issue can then put itself to bed or not as it pleases, because we will never ever ever ever have a referendum on it, or anything else, ever again. If you want to regard that as a dystopian vision of the boot of everyone who just wants to get on with their bloody lives stamping on the face of Therwilloftherpeople forever, be my guest.
Not good enough for either side. This is a fight to the death and Remain will win.
++++++++++++
We will all lose.
We've forgotten that those with differing political opinions are worthwhile human beings.
Wanting to travel or study or work in different EU countries does not make you evil.
And worrying about the impact of very high levels of immigration on cultures, communities and services, does not make you subhuman.
If people on all sides don't stop vilifying those they disagree with, then we all lose.
> > @glw said:
> > The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. They still think that overturning a democratic vote is a viable way of settling the issue.
> >
> > I've heard a ton of people advocate a People's Vote with the presumption that Remain will win. I don't think I've heard any one of them say what would happen next. They seem to share a delusion that it will put the EU issue to bed forever.
> Nothing would happen, because Remain is the default, and we could stop this divisive crap and disband the DexEU and get on with our lives. The EU issue can then put itself to bed or not as it pleases, because we will never ever ever ever have a referendum on it, or anything else, ever again. If you want to regard that as a dystopian vision of the boot of everyone who just wants to get on with their bloody lives stamping on the face of Therwilloftherpeople forever, be my guest.
You really are deluded if you believe that. The world has changed and you can't put it back to the way you want it to be.
> The people of Northern Ireland have made their views on the backstop absolutely clear. The Alliance party is non-sectarian and will have got a lot of its votes from middle class Protestants. Why not just give the Northern Irish the final say on the backstop and the border? It's them who will be affected by it, after all. If you do that, all the stuff about how appalling it is for NI to be treated differently etc just goes away.
I believe a German diplomat made this suggestion too.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> >
> > There is a betrayal narrative on the other side too, though, Richard.
> >
> > We were told by everyone on the Leave side that there would be a deal, that it would be easy etc. No Deal was never part of the Leave manifesto.
> >
> > If a deal had been reached and voted for by Leave MPs I'd have lived with it, even if it was not my preferred solution.
> >
> > But now, apparently, a No Deal Brexit is the only proper Brexit. So I feel betrayed by those who won the referendum on the basis of X, then did their damnedest to make sure that X did not succeed and now say that we have to suck up Y.
> >
> > So I am not now prepared to trust those who are hijacking the referendum result to push their own particular version of Brexit contrary to what they said 3 years ago. I now think they were and are behaving dishonestly. If I am now much more Remainy than I ever was in 2016 it is because of the behaviour of the Leavers who have scuppered what they claimed to want and now want to drag Britain out of the EU with no plan and in a way which I think will cause great damage to this country.
> >
> > Do not assume that because people like me don't go to rallies etc that we don't feel equally betrayed and angry at what is happening. Nor that this won't have political consequences.
>
> I don't but then I am not advocating No Deal.
>
> If you are advocating overturning the result of the referendum then you are no less of an extremist than those who are pressing for No Deal. You are as much a part of the problem as they are. It is those of us in the middle who have always advocated a soft Brexit who are the voice of reason, not those pushing for either revoke or the loser's revote.
I've already said that I could live with a soft Brexit. So no I am not an extremist. I want to avoid a No Deal Exit. If that is the option then I would prefer a referendum - because there is no mandate for a No Deal exit and it should get it.
Frankly, there is no clarity and the parties are all at sea. We should take a long pause to work out exactly what we want - not just in relation to a transition - but also in relation to the final arrangement with the EU. We need as a nation to work out our strategy vis-a-vis the EU. I have argued for this many many times below and above the line.
It won't happen. But if a minority insist on taking us out on a No Deal basis out of blind panic or because they are more interested in the fate of their party (and I fully accept that this is not your position) then I will support whatever will stop that. I am much more fearful of a No Deal exit and a Corbyn government than you are. Maybe I am wrong to think so. But that is my position: it has hardened in response to the behaviour of the ERG and others who have deliberately scuppered any attempt at compromise.
It suggests turnout among ABs was at general election level of 70%, whereas among everyone else it was under a third, with C2s really under-performing; white van man didn't come out to vote.
I've checked a few constituency demographics and it tallys well with reported turnout. This in itself pretty much completely explains the turnout differential between Remain and Leave constituencies. I understand now why my polling station had crap turnout.
What it does mean is that this election is the most Remainy it gets, a future General election or Referendum will contain far more strongly leave demographics.
Stage 5 Quota 143,112:
DUP 143,112 - Elected Diane Dodds
Alliance 170,370 - Elected Naomi Long
SF 152,436.5 - Elected Martina Anderson
TUV 90,079 - Jim Allister
>
> The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. They still think that overturning a democratic vote is a viable way of settling the issue.
This crisis has been made by Leavers not willing to vote for compromise and not willing to take responsibility for the Brexit they campaigned for - instead trying to insist that Remainers impose Brexit on them so that they can continue to cry betrayal.
It is the most infantile behaviour I have ever seen.
> > @Ishmael_Z said:
> > > @glw said:
> > > The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. They still think that overturning a democratic vote is a viable way of settling the issue.
> > >
> > > I've heard a ton of people advocate a People's Vote with the presumption that Remain will win. I don't think I've heard any one of them say what would happen next. They seem to share a delusion that it will put the EU issue to bed forever.
> > Nothing would happen, because Remain is the default, and we could stop this divisive crap and disband the DexEU and get on with our lives. The EU issue can then put itself to bed or not as it pleases, because we will never ever ever ever have a referendum on it, or anything else, ever again. If you want to regard that as a dystopian vision of the boot of everyone who just wants to get on with their bloody lives stamping on the face of Therwilloftherpeople forever, be my guest.
>
> You really are deluded if you believe that. The world has changed and you can't put it back to the way you want it to be.
Well, here we still are.
I'm pretty sure an end to FOM wasn't even ever really needed. Given that most of low-paid Britain is partly Government aided now, I think cutting off all out of and in work benefits would probably have proved enough for most people. But I think the chance to test that theory has probably passed.
>
> I've already said that I could live with a soft Brexit. So no I am not an extremist. I want to avoid a No Deal Exit. If that is the option then I would prefer a referendum - because there is no mandate for a No Deal exit and it should get it.
>
> Frankly, there is no clarity and the parties are all at sea. We should take a long pause to work out exactly what we want - not just in relation to a transition - but also in relation to the final arrangement with the EU. We need as a nation to work out our strategy vis-a-vis the EU. I have argued for this many many times below and above the line.
>
> It won't happen. But if a minority insist on taking us out on a No Deal basis out of blind panic or because they are more interested in the fate of their party (and I fully accept that this is not your position) then I will support whatever will stop that. I am much more fearful of a No Deal exit and a Corbyn government than you are. Maybe I am wrong to think so. But that is my position: it has hardened in response to the behaviour of the ERG and others who have deliberately scuppered any attempt at compromise.
If we do not leave then a Corbyn Government is absolutely guaranteed. So which do you fear more?
The forces of leave have a colossal structural advantage under FPTP.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> >
> > The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. They still think that overturning a democratic vote is a viable way of settling the issue.
>
> This crisis has been made by Leavers not willing to vote for compromise and not willing to take responsibility for the Brexit they campaigned for - instead trying to insist that Remainers impose Brexit on them so that they can continue to cry betrayal.
>
> It is the most infantile behaviour I have ever seen.
Someone else who has a problem with Maths. 27 morons from the ERG voted against the deal. If the Remainers in Parliament had supported it then it would have passed overwhelmingly. But of course they didn't because they were more interested in stopping Brexit than actually serving the country.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> >
> > I've already said that I could live with a soft Brexit. So no I am not an extremist. I want to avoid a No Deal Exit. If that is the option then I would prefer a referendum - because there is no mandate for a No Deal exit and it should get it.
> >
> > Frankly, there is no clarity and the parties are all at sea. We should take a long pause to work out exactly what we want - not just in relation to a transition - but also in relation to the final arrangement with the EU. We need as a nation to work out our strategy vis-a-vis the EU. I have argued for this many many times below and above the line.
> >
> > It won't happen. But if a minority insist on taking us out on a No Deal basis out of blind panic or because they are more interested in the fate of their party (and I fully accept that this is not your position) then I will support whatever will stop that. I am much more fearful of a No Deal exit and a Corbyn government than you are. Maybe I am wrong to think so. But that is my position: it has hardened in response to the behaviour of the ERG and others who have deliberately scuppered any attempt at compromise.
>
> If we do not leave then a Corbyn Government is absolutely guaranteed. So which do you fear more?
In your black and white world maybe. In reality no party is likely to get a majority, and a Corbyn government will be a centre left rather than extreme left govt reigned in by other parties and the moderates within Labour.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > >
> > > The crisis is caused by the Remainer delusions. They still think that overturning a democratic vote is a viable way of settling the issue.
> >
> > This crisis has been made by Leavers not willing to vote for compromise and not willing to take responsibility for the Brexit they campaigned for - instead trying to insist that Remainers impose Brexit on them so that they can continue to cry betrayal.
> >
> > It is the most infantile behaviour I have ever seen.
>
> Someone else who has a problem with Maths. 27 morons from the ERG voted against the deal. If the Remainers in Parliament had supported it then it would have passed overwhelmingly. But of course they didn't because they were more interested in stopping Brexit than actually serving the country.
27 morons failed to vote for the deal. The opposition, however, performed the task they were given by their constituents (which is to oppose).
It is not the job of anyone bar a conservative MP to vote for a policy / law being implemented by a conservative Government.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> >
> > I've already said that I could live with a soft Brexit. So no I am not an extremist. I want to avoid a No Deal Exit. If that is the option then I would prefer a referendum - because there is no mandate for a No Deal exit and it should get it.
> >
> > Frankly, there is no clarity and the parties are all at sea. We should take a long pause to work out exactly what we want - not just in relation to a transition - but also in relation to the final arrangement with the EU. We need as a nation to work out our strategy vis-a-vis the EU. I have argued for this many many times below and above the line.
> >
> > It won't happen. But if a minority insist on taking us out on a No Deal basis out of blind panic or because they are more interested in the fate of their party (and I fully accept that this is not your position) then I will support whatever will stop that. I am much more fearful of a No Deal exit and a Corbyn government than you are. Maybe I am wrong to think so. But that is my position: it has hardened in response to the behaviour of the ERG and others who have deliberately scuppered any attempt at compromise.
>
> If we do not leave then a Corbyn Government is absolutely guaranteed. So which do you fear more?
I'm not sure I agree. But I think the most disastrous option is to have a No Deal exit followed by a Corbyn government. Which is what the Tories will be enabling.
To be perfectly honest if the government had followed your initial suggestion we'd be in a much better place. All options now are bad. It's a question of choosing the least worst one.
> > @MaxPB said:
> > I actually think it would be worthwhile for the new PM to bring Ken Clark back into the tent and maybe even the traitorous Grieve. We should try and find a solution to this that keeps as many people on side as possible. No deal just doesn't have a mandate. Neither does revoke. A second referendum will, IMO, ratchet up the pressure and make everything worse when in fact we should be cooling things down.
> >
> > To be constructive, one of the things that ramps up the pressure is the feeling on both sides that this is the last chance. A compromise deal would have more chance of being accepted if it wasn't seen as final. Many on the EU side talk rather patronisingly about 'parking' the UK outside the EU institutions for a period while we sort ourselves out and decide what we want. Personally I don't like the sound of that but it has some logic to it.
> >
> > That pressure will eventually break out into the streets. Luckily leavers seems content with registering their displeasure at the ballot box and not in the streets. I fear that even that won't last much longer and talk of a second referendum will bring about a reckoning.
>
> Hordes of Anne Widdecombes roaming the streets looking for trouble?
>
> 35% of 38% voted for No Deal parties. It's not exactly an uprising. 40% of 38% voted for Remain parties. Europe largely remains a minority interest in the UK.
@SouthamObserver the hard Brexiteers managed fewer votes that signatures on the Revoke Petition. Enthusiasm for Brexit is shallow.
> Naomi Long ended up winning the second seat in Northern Ireland after vote transfers.
>
> Stage 5 Quota 143,112:
>
> DUP 143,112 - Elected Diane Dodds
> Alliance 170,370 - Elected Naomi Long
> SF 152,436.5 - Elected Martina Anderson
> TUV 90,079 - Jim Allister
Makes sense. The SF not going to get many transfers
https://news.sky.com/story/labour-pivots-to-support-second-eu-referendum-now-after-election-slump-11729708