The Brexit dilemma will be resolved when the country goes into the now overdue recession. Whosoever is in power will get the blame and the country will swing the other way.
> @Garza said: > > @Barnesian said: > > > @JonWC said: > > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky? > > > > ************************************************************************************ > > As responsible MPs, with their constituents interests at heart, they vote to keep No Deal off the ballot paper in case their constituents self harm. > > Indeed why even let the plebs vote at all. Just let their "betters" decide what is best for them. Oligarchy forever!
That is representative democracy you are describing. It is our system. It is a powerful defence against demagogues who fire up the people, aided by a rabid press, and possibly foreign money.
> @El_Capitano said: > Top trolling analogy seen somewhere else: > > If Remain United beats Leave FC 6-5, Leave FC doesn’t get to claim the win just because all of its five goals were scored by the same striker.
But Leave FC get 'man of the match' probably ! Farage will influence the future more than any other politician which is not good as it will increase vastly the chances of a Marxist government with not even a safety net of being in the EU. Dangerous times for UK.
> @DavidL said: > I mean I know no one (not even remainers) really cares but does anyone have a good summary of how the rest of the EU voted last night? I thought that the BBC coverage was incredibly parochial given the nature of the election.
Well, here in Germany the Greens did well, about 20% - coming 2nd after CDU-CSU. I wouldn't expect people to vote particularly differently in a general election (unlike in the UK). The SPD continue to decline, and I do wonder what the point of them is these days, at least at the federal level. The AfD got 10% which was a big gain on the last Euros, but a decline on the 2017 federal elections, so they seem to be going backwards.
Turnout was a high 61% - does anyone have any explanation for the wildly different turnouts in different EU countries?
The number of MEPS each party gets is decided according to the Sainte-Laguë method, which is similar to D'Hondt, but is a bit more favorable to small parties (I think). The whole of Germany is one constituency for the purpose of allocating numbers of seats per party. And there is a closed party list system for deciding which individuals get to be MEPs. However, each Bundesland has its own party lists, and how many MEPs each Bundesland gets is determined by how many votes there are in each region, as I understand it. So the candidates at the top of the party lists here in NRW get to be the MEPS for NRW (despite Germany being one constituency). At least that's how I think it works. Clever, in a way, and certainly much more proportional than the UK system, while retaining a sense of regional representation.
It also avoids having to think about tactically voting - except for the very small parties. This time 3 parties that got 0.7% of the national vote ended up with one MEP each. There seem to have been 4 different animal rights parties on the ballot, the biggest one got 1.4% and one MEP, the others got no MEPs, but if they had managed to all get together I guess they would have got 2 MEPs.
> > But TBP still beats UKIPs 2014 share of the vote... Which was a prelude to LEAVE winning the referendum two years later.
>
> But a clear majority of the 2014 Tory voters in that year’s EU elections were leave supporters. Factor in the collapse in the Tory vote, the 2014-2019 swing is very clearly from leave to remain.
---------------
Cons + UKIP lost 40 percentage points in total; BXP gained 33% . The other 7% went to Remain parties.
Good point. Certainly in London and SE we saw a big Con to LD swing.
> @Foxy said: > https://twitter.com/SebDance/status/1132926579519172608 > > > > If pro Pv parties are as we all know anti Brexit why not just revoke? Given they are wanting remain a Pv is just a process issue, and they would be foolish to risk Brexit happening. And given they are explicit the purpose is not to ask for our say but to remain, they would not make it binding and would fight it if we did confirm to leave. > > No deal or revoke, let's stop pretending thats not where we end up. > > In the absence of another extension Revoke and No Deal are the only options.
Sounds simple but not true.
If we revoke we still have Brexit party with a potential of 30% which is feasibly enough to win a GE, particularly if some leading Tories switched after revoke which means we are only ever one GE from leaving for the next 10 years and Brexit will still divide and dominate.
If we No Deal, we still need to deals with the EU! Which will be very similar to the withdrawal agreement but have to be done without any agreed mandate or support in the country, it will continue to be chaotic and divisive.
Neither are settled end points, they are simply expressions of peoples desires.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @solarflare said: > > We might as well just fast forward and get on with the business of organising a No Deal vs. Revoke referendum. > > Political class don't have the guts to risk putting No Deal on the ballot paper.
I think we will be able to revisit that once the next Conservative leader is in position.
> But TBP still beats UKIPs 2014 share of the vote... Which was a prelude to LEAVE winning the referendum two years later.
But a clear majority of the 2014 Tory voters in that year’s EU elections were leave supporters. Factor in the collapse in the Tory vote, the 2014-2019 swing is very clearly from leave to remain.
You could say the same about labour 2014 being Remain. If we are to take last nights figures as a guide, it’s fair to say more people want to remain than no deal. But I wouldn’t say that means Remain beats Leave.
> @No_Offence_Alan said: > > @not_on_fire said: > > > @numbertwelve said: > > > > > > @anothernick said: > > > > > > My takeaways from the results: > > > > > > > > > > > > 1 Remain parties clearly ahead of Leave parties and if you add Labour to remain and the Tories to leave (yes I know the caveats) then remain even further ahead. > > > > > > > > > > > > 2 Labour will now move to a remain and reform position, if the leadership do not move then their hand will be forced by the party conference, but I think they will move. > > > > > > > > > > > > 3 There is no majority for a no deal exit, if a new Tory PM tries to leave without a deal Tory rebels will be able to say they have the public on their side when they act to prevent it and winning a general election or referendum for a no deal exit looks a very tall order. > > > > > > > > > > > > 4 So the possibility of a no deal exit has been diminished by yesterday's results. And if the choice is now no deal or no Brexit then no Brexit looks more likely than ever. > > > > > > > > > > I am not so confident that this takes no deal off the table. If anything I think it makes it much more likely. > > > > Your forgetting about the stay at home party who couldn’t be arsed to vote last Thursday but will vote in referendum if they are told nanny knows best again . Leave will win , the silent majority will speak when they have to , > > > > So a 12% win for the Brexit Party actually means the country is now REMAIN and we should have a second referendum??? > > > > So a 31% vote for the Brexit party means the whole country wants an immediate no-deal Brexit? > > 31% is more than half of 52% so that is the majority Leave view. >
Which is certain to drive enough sane leavers away from Brexit to reinforce the now-majority remain view in the country.
It needs repeating, politics isn't a knock out tournament.
> @kle4 said: > What the hell are the EU Brexit negotiators in Brussels thinking this morning? > > Book a long holiday until October > > They have that anyway. A condition of the extension was that negotiations over the WA were over, though the PD could have minor ammendments. > > There simply are no negotiations for the Brexiteers to restart, and post No Deal the same three issues will be on the table, including the Irish border. > > I am sanguine about No Deal/ No Plan Brexit. It is the shortest route to the discrediting of the Brexiteers and counter revolution. > > Most remainers disagree given how hard they have fought to have even BINO. The psychological effect of leaving at all is clearly worrisome.
Even intrastat returns continue under May's exit plan for the forseeable future, there are no tariffs.. we'll be locked into the backstop forever and things will work precisely as they did when we were in the EU. Economically it is pretty much identical, the difference is cultural symbolism. We will be very much out of the EU, that's the part remainers hate I think - the values argument.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @solarflare said: > > We might as well just fast forward and get on with the business of organising a No Deal vs. Revoke referendum. > > Political class don't have the guts to risk putting No Deal on the ballot paper.
---------
Good if they don't. No Deal is mad. You shouldn't put unviable options into a referendum. Which is a strong reason why I think a second referendum is difficult. If we go to No Deal, it will likely be unconscious. Those in charge of a falling Brexit policy have run out of options
> @Jonathan said: > The Brexit dilemma will be resolved when the country goes into the now overdue recession. Whosoever is in power will get the blame and the country will swing the other way.
Very possible.
Though we might get a rerun of the 1970s with one side being blamed and then the other.
> @Foxy said: > https://twitter.com/SebDance/status/1132926579519172608 > > > > If pro Pv parties are as we all know anti Brexit why not just revoke? Given they are wanting remain a Pv is just a process issue, and they would be foolish to risk Brexit happening. And given they are explicit the purpose is not to ask for our say but to remain, they would not make it binding and would fight it if we did confirm to leave. > > No deal or revoke, let's stop pretending thats not where we end up. > > In the absence of another extension Revoke and No Deal are the only options.
----------
I wouldn't rule out a deal, precisely because those are the only other options.
> @state_go_away said: > > @El_Capitano said: > > Top trolling analogy seen somewhere else: > > > > If Remain United beats Leave FC 6-5, Leave FC doesn’t get to claim the win just because all of its five goals were scored by the same striker. > > But Leave FC get 'man of the match' probably ! Farage will influence the future more than any other politician which is not good as it will increase vastly the chances of a Marxist government with not even a safety net of being in the EU. Dangerous times for UK.
It may be time to 'insure' against a Marxist government by the tories proposing PR General elections - Might get it passed if enough tories see the real danger heading the country's way .
> @JackW said: > > @isam said: > > Meanwhile .... In a celestial world far, far away a certain @MarkSenior dressed in a bright yellow punk outfit strums his harp and screeches : > > > > > > > > "Never Mind The Bollocks, Here's The Liberal Democrats." > > > > It would have been a nice touch if one of the site moderators had logged into Mark Seniors account and ‘liked’ that comment > > ............................................................................................................ > > Indeed. > > Let us also not forget @Plato ,who I disagreed with on most subjects, but clearly will be digging @MarkSenior in the ribs and shouting "Bollocks To Remainers" not too softly in his ears !! ..
An afterlife with Plato & Mark Senior bellowing at each other suggests that they're both being punished rather than enjoying heavenly repose.
> @FF43 said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > @solarflare said: > > > We might as well just fast forward and get on with the business of organising a No Deal vs. Revoke referendum. > > > > Political class don't have the guts to risk putting No Deal on the ballot paper. > > --------- > > Good if they don't. No Deal is mad. You shouldn't put unviable options into a referendum. Which is a strong reason why I think a second referendum is difficult. If we go to No Deal, it will likely be unconscious. Those in charge of a falling Brexit policy have run out of options
FFS
No deal is an "option" if, and only if, you think UK legislation and the other doings of the UK parliament are binding on the President of France.
> @another_richard said: > The BBC headline is: > > BREXIT PARTY DOMINATES IN EU ELECTIONS > > Farage has won the media narrative. > > And the desperate pasting of tweets is not going to reverse that.
A few days ago I published on here my proposed model for turning the Euro results into an equivalent EU Ref2 outcome.
There were some minor quibbles regarding the methodology and assumptions, but if you recall I made the relevant adjustments where necessary, based on the copious and intelligent feedback received, and we ended up with something that all agreed was about as good as it is possible to get.
I have now crunched the actual numbers and below is the 'Referendum' result.
Let's assume the Tories select a no dealer in response to yesterday's result. Let's further assume that parliament recoil in horror at the prospect. MPs otherwise loathe to trigger a General Election - considering their own personal likely defeat - may do so when it's clear that an election is the only way to possibly avoid no deal.
The parliamentary timetable focuses minds. An election before 31st October can only be on 3 dates: 17th, 24th or 31st October. I cannot see the new Tory leader being permitted to ask for an extension, so the end of October it is.
Question - if the 80% or so of the remaining Tory party is clearly saying vote for me and we'll no deal on Halloween, would there be any point in their voters staying with Farage? Would Tory voters trust a Boris to actually deliver, or would they want a pure Brexiteer MP instead? Would Farage's ego allow him not to run a full slate?
What I am saying is that I can see a way for the Conservatives to win an October election. I cannot see a way for Corbyn-led Labour to win an October election
An interesting post. However, I have my doubts.
1. I think the EU would agree an extension for a GE. 2. On the Tory prospects, I think you are making the same mistake which the party is about to make, namely that they can shoot Farage’s fox by shifting to a deliberate no deal crashout. It won’t work - surely by now we should have learnt that the ERG/Kippers/Faragists will always scream Betrayal whatever is actually proposed. The Tories can’t out-Farage Farage. They’ll be squeezed from both sides, and shellacked in any election. They’ll also be blamed for a generation for the no-deal fallout.
> @FF43 said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > @solarflare said: > > > We might as well just fast forward and get on with the business of organising a No Deal vs. Revoke referendum. > > > > Political class don't have the guts to risk putting No Deal on the ballot paper. > > --------- > > Good if they don't. No Deal is mad. You shouldn't put unviable options into a referendum. Which is a strong reason why I think a second referendum is difficult. If we go to No Deal, it will likely be unconscious. Those in charge of a falling Brexit policy have run out of options
There has to be a referendum. Without it, a party could put something in their manifesto, win a majority on 35% and take that as a mandate. Imagine a Remain Labour cancelling Brexit on 35%. Or Brexit Party WTOing on 35%. Same with Scottish independence. SNP majority likely; what if they seek a mandate for indy that way because the Holyrood vote for a ref is ignored? These are all very real possibilities.
> If pro Pv parties are as we all know anti Brexit why not just revoke? Given they are wanting remain a Pv is just a process issue, and they would be foolish to risk Brexit happening. And given they are explicit the purpose is not to ask for our say but to remain, they would not make it binding and would fight it if we did confirm to leave.
>
> No deal or revoke, let's stop pretending thats not where we end up.
>
> In the absence of another extension Revoke and No Deal are the only options.
----------
I wouldn't rule out a deal, precisely because those are the only other options.
Yes, it would be amusing to see the new Tory leader passing the WA. I can't see it myself though.
The EU27 are much better prepared for No Deal than us, economically and politically, and both sides know it.
> The Australian Labor Party has elected leftwinger Anthony Albanese unopposed to succeed Bill Shorten as Labor leader following its recent election defeat
> If pro Pv parties are as we all know anti Brexit why not just revoke? Given they are wanting remain a Pv is just a process issue, and they would be foolish to risk Brexit happening. And given they are explicit the purpose is not to ask for our say but to remain, they would not make it binding and would fight it if we did confirm to leave.
>
> No deal or revoke, let's stop pretending thats not where we end up.
>
> In the absence of another extension Revoke and No Deal are the only options.
----------
I wouldn't rule out a deal, precisely because those are the only other options.
How does a deal happen? One cannot even be offered to parliament again until a new Tory PM comes in, if they then survive a VONC, and the chances of getting something new to then put to parliament looks vanishingly slim, as not enough Lab MPs fear Brexit not happening and too many Tories fear BXP to back a deal again.
The Tories should pick an unambiguous no dealer. I do not think they would avoid a VONC, and I doubt they would a GE doing so, but a pragmatist won't be able to succeed either and will only delay the inevitable path the members want.
I think that a no deal Brexit in October now looks very likely. The Tory leadership candidates are going to swing that way and no deal seems more acceptable to the DUP than the backstop. It is a long way short of optimal but these results mean a softer Brexit is now almost impossible to deliver. Even those Tories who favour remain are going to recognise that a failure to deliver Brexit means oblivion.
Hopefully, once we have left, we can repair some of the short term damage with bilateral agreements with the EU fairly quickly. But we had a chance to compromise and we blew it. I don't see that chance coming again.
> Let us also not forget @Plato ,who I disagreed with on most subjects, but clearly will be digging @MarkSenior in the ribs and shouting "Bollocks To Remainers" not too softly in his ears !! ..
An afterlife with Plato & Mark Senior bellowing at each other suggests that they're both being punished rather than enjoying heavenly repose.
If we don't enjoy bellowing at each other on here one wonders why we do it
The Brexit Party completely boss the election and end up as the largest individual party in the whole EU parliament. And yet the establishment creates it's own vote totals, supported actively by Sky and the BBC, to create the narrative that remain won.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @FF43 said: > > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > What the hell are the EU Brexit negotiators in Brussels thinking this morning? > > > > They think the British are deluded and unserious. They have dealt with that type before, including the Greeks > > I expect they are thinking that there is no-one on the UK side to negotiate with who has a mandate in parliament and that there probably will not be in the next 12 months so will be planning for delay and further extension.
-------
There's an argument for the EU to do nothing. They want a deal on their terms. As long as nothing is agreed and the UK doesn't do anything, they keep that. Should Johnson or someone else move to No Deal, expect a ton of bricks from the EU side. They will make No Deal extremely unpleasant for us.
> @Dura_Ace said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > > The Australian Labor Party has elected leftwinger Anthony Albanese unopposed to succeed Bill Shorten as Labor leader following its recent election defeat > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-48362272 > > > > > > Doubling down on the culture wars... > > > > > > Is he hard left?? if so another defeat will beckon... > > He's a completely unreconstructed anti-monarchist and loves The Smiths. He gets the DA imprimatur.
Hmmm. Given Morrisey's apparent views these days is loving the Smiths still a viable cultural choice for an aspiring Marxist leader?
Let's assume the Tories select a no dealer in response to yesterday's result. Let's further assume that parliament recoil in horror at the prospect. MPs otherwise loathe to trigger a General Election - considering their own personal likely defeat - may do so when it's clear that an election is the only way to possibly avoid no deal.
The parliamentary timetable focuses minds. An election before 31st October can only be on 3 dates: 17th, 24th or 31st October. I cannot see the new Tory leader being permitted to ask for an extension, so the end of October it is.
Question - if the 80% or so of the remaining Tory party is clearly saying vote for me and we'll no deal on Halloween, would there be any point in their voters staying with Farage? Would Tory voters trust a Boris to actually deliver, or would they want a pure Brexiteer MP instead? Would Farage's ego allow him not to run a full slate?
What I am saying is that I can see a way for the Conservatives to win an October election. I cannot see a way for Corbyn-led Labour to win an October election
An interesting post. However, I have my doubts.
1. I think the EU would agree an extension for a GE. 2. On the Tory prospects, I think you are making the same mistake which the party is about to make, namely that they can shoot Farage’s fox by shifting to a deliberate no deal crashout. It won’t work - surely by now we should have learnt that the ERG/Kippers/Faragists will always scream Betrayal whatever is actually proposed. The Tories can’t out-Farage Farage. They’ll be squeezed from both sides, and shellacked in any election. They’ll also be blamed for a generation for the no-deal fallout.
Do you see any way out of their bind, Richard ? I’m struggling to do so, but I’m interested in the rational Tory view.
> @rottenborough said: > > @another_richard said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > https://twitter.com/TheaDickinson/status/1132935729334620161 > > > > > > > > I would respect any advocate of No Deal if they also promised to sack Fox and Grayling. > > > > > > Until then its all posturing and no planning. > > > > What does a Raab cabinet look like? Looking at his list of backers Fox and Grayling will look like star players. > > So Raab plans to crash us out on 31st Oct, against the will of the House of Commons. > > Talk about a constitutional crisis. Jeez.
He plans for the GE that would happen if he tried it.
Downloaded this from my (proper) local council. Sefton.
BXP GAIN BOOTLE!
"I Margaret Carney Local Returning Officer appointed for the Sefton Counting Area at the European Parliamentary Election in the North West Region held on 23 May 2019 hereby certify and declare that:
The total number of valid votes given to each registered party and individual candidate in Sefton Counting Area is as follows:
PARTY/INDIVIDUAL CANDIDATE NUMBER OF VOTES Change UK – The Independent Group 1762 Conservative and Unionist Party 3609 English Democrats 363 Green Party 7717 Labour Party 17581 Liberal Democrats 12438 The Brexit Party 19848 UK European Union Party (UKEUP) 234 UK Independence Party (UKIP) 2006 Aslam, Mohmmad 20 Robinson, Tommy 954"
May's Deal is a credible leave deal imho. No-Dealers don't like it by definition. As a Remainer I don't like it much (again by definition). But it's a credible deal.
> But TBP still beats UKIPs 2014 share of the vote... Which was a prelude to LEAVE winning the referendum two years later.
But a clear majority of the 2014 Tory voters in that year’s EU elections were leave supporters. Factor in the collapse in the Tory vote, the 2014-2019 swing is very clearly from leave to remain.
You could say the same about labour 2014 being Remain. If we are to take last nights figures as a guide, it’s fair to say more people want to remain than no deal. But I wouldn’t say that means Remain beats Leave.
We had the same argument 5 years ago. One side said 52% voted for eurosceptic parties. The other side said 70% voted for pro-EU parties.
The Brexit Party completely boss the election and end up as the largest individual party in the whole EU parliament. And yet the establishment creates it's own vote totals, supported actively by Sky and the BBC, to create the narrative that remain won.
And they wonder why the Brexit Party won?
Remain did beat the most extreme form of Leave thanks to votes from people ineligible to take part in the referendum, but it’s disingenous to class No Deal as Leave.
Many Leavers wouldn’t vote for a Farage led No Deal party, but most Remainers wouldn’t have a problem voting Lib Dem, Green or ChUK
> @JackW said: > @Theuniondivvie said: > > "An afterlife with Plato & Mark Senior bellowing at each other suggests that they're both being punished rather than enjoying heavenly repose." > > ....................................................................................... > > I have this sneaking suspicion that they'd both rather enjoy bellowing at each other between extended bouts of celestial repose .....
Fair enough, I'm probably transposing my own vision of hell (being stuck between them) onto the idea.
If we don't enjoy bellowing at each other on here one wonders why we do it
* To correct the errors of others * To learn things * To provide entertainment
And hence in the long (hopefully medium!) term gain sufficient skill to win sums of money at gambling (or more realistically, insure against bad political outcomes)
> @kle4 said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > @another_richard said: > > > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/TheaDickinson/status/1132935729334620161 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I would respect any advocate of No Deal if they also promised to sack Fox and Grayling. > > > > > > > > > > Until then its all posturing and no planning. > > > > > > > > What does a Raab cabinet look like? Looking at his list of backers Fox and Grayling will look like star players. > > > > So Raab plans to crash us out on 31st Oct, against the will of the House of Commons. > > > > Talk about a constitutional crisis. Jeez. > > He plans for the GE that would happen if he tried it.
Which is very likely to be a hung parliament both in party terms and between revoke, deal and no deal. Then what?
> @isam said: > The Brexit Party completely boss the election and end up as the largest individual party in the whole EU parliament. And yet the establishment creates it's own vote totals, supported actively by Sky and the BBC, to create the narrative that remain won. > > > > And they wonder why the Brexit Party won? > > Remain did beat the most extreme form of Leave thanks to votes from people ineligible to take part in the referendum, but it’s disingenous to class No Deal as Leave.
This is going to be the excuse now, is it? Foreigners.
> The Brexit Party completely boss the election and end up as the largest individual party in the whole EU parliament. And yet the establishment creates it's own vote totals, supported actively by Sky and the BBC, to create the narrative that remain won.
>
>
>
> And they wonder why the Brexit Party won?
>
> Remain did beat the most extreme form of Leave thanks to votes from people ineligible to take part in the referendum, but it’s disingenous to class No Deal as Leave.
This is going to be the excuse now, is it? Foreigners.
Beyond parody.
It’s true actually
Shame you backed your opinion with a price when I asked
> @Nigelb said: > Let's assume the Tories select a no dealer in response to yesterday's result. Let's further assume that parliament recoil in horror at the prospect. MPs otherwise loathe to trigger a General Election - considering their own personal likely defeat - may do so when it's clear that an election is the only way to possibly avoid no deal. > > > > The parliamentary timetable focuses minds. An election before 31st October can only be on 3 dates: 17th, 24th or 31st October. I cannot see the new Tory leader being permitted to ask for an extension, so the end of October it is. > > > > Question - if the 80% or so of the remaining Tory party is clearly saying vote for me and we'll no deal on Halloween, would there be any point in their voters staying with Farage? Would Tory voters trust a Boris to actually deliver, or would they want a pure Brexiteer MP instead? Would Farage's ego allow him not to run a full slate? > > > > What I am saying is that I can see a way for the Conservatives to win an October election. I cannot see a way for Corbyn-led Labour to win an October election > > An interesting post. However, I have my doubts. > > 1. I think the EU would agree an extension for a GE. > 2. On the Tory prospects, I think you are making the same mistake which the party is about to make, namely that they can shoot Farage’s fox by shifting to a deliberate no deal crashout. It won’t work - surely by now we should have learnt that the ERG/Kippers/Faragists will always scream Betrayal whatever is actually proposed. The Tories can’t out-Farage Farage. They’ll be squeezed from both sides, and shellacked in any election. They’ll also be blamed for a generation for the no-deal fallout. > > Do you see any way out of their bind, Richard ? > I’m struggling to do so, but I’m interested in the rational Tory view.
one way out for the tories is to pivot to a referendum with only 2 choices: Brexit with (slightly tweaked?) May's deal Brexit with no deal
and then carry out the result
sure the wreckers will still scream Betrayal, but would many listen?
of course, the majority who want either a softer brexit or no brexit will be rightly extremely pissed off, but at a general election their votes are divided.
We need PR now - and maybe if enough Conservative and Labour MPs see FPTP as a disadvantage, there might be a unique opportunity before the next election to introduce it. Or it least there could be if they weren't so busy with bloody brexit.
(NO) Change UK reminds me of one of those fireworks on Bonfire Night that you light, stand back expecting a big explosion and all you get in the end of a little puff.
> @ah009 said: > > @FF43 said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > @solarflare said: > > > > We might as well just fast forward and get on with the business of organising a No Deal vs. Revoke referendum. > > > > > > Political class don't have the guts to risk putting No Deal on the ballot paper. > > > > --------- > > > > Good if they don't. No Deal is mad. You shouldn't put unviable options into a referendum. Which is a strong reason why I think a second referendum is difficult. If we go to No Deal, it will likely be unconscious. Those in charge of a falling Brexit policy have run out of options > > There has to be a referendum. Without it, a party could put something in their manifesto, win a majority on 35% and take that as a mandate. Imagine a Remain Labour cancelling Brexit on 35%. Or Brexit Party WTOing on 35%. > Same with Scottish independence. SNP majority likely; what if they seek a mandate for indy that way because the Holyrood vote for a ref is ignored? > These are all very real possibilities.
Clearly from last night's results there is no mandate for rerunning the referendum. And even ignoring the fact it would be an affront to democracy, what are you going to ask? Parliament won't allow No Deal onto the ballot and there is no deal to put on there. So your choice seems to be do you want to Remain or do you want to not leave?
> @isam said: > The Brexit Party completely boss the election and end up as the largest individual party in the whole EU parliament. And yet the establishment creates it's own vote totals, supported actively by Sky and the BBC, to create the narrative that remain won. > > > > And they wonder why the Brexit Party won? > > Remain did beat the most extreme form of Leave thanks to votes from people ineligible to take part in the referendum, but it’s disingenous to class No Deal as Leave.
This is going to be the excuse now, is it? Foreigners.
Beyond parody.
You can't simultaneously squeal about how well London went for Remainers and then be indignant at the thought that in an election where EU citizens can vote it might have given you an edge...
The critical question is as follows. If Stewart, Rudd et al are so adamant that they will not support a no dealer how would that translate into action should a no dealer become PM?
VONC support would mean deselection and near certain job loss.
How many are there willing to do this? Grieve we know would be one. How many others?
So Raab plans to crash us out on 31st Oct, against the will of the House of Commons.
Talk about a constitutional crisis. Jeez.
Brexit used to be a bit of laugh at what a fuck up it was. Now it appears to spinning out of control and we could all soon be living in a cross between Swastika Night and Idiocracy.
> @TOPPING said: > The critical question is as follows. If Stewart, Rudd et al are so adamant that they will not support a no dealer how would that translate into action should a no dealer become PM? > > VONC support would mean deselection and near certain job loss. > > How many are there willing to do this? Grieve we know would be one. How many others?
> @FF43 said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @FF43 said: > > > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > > What the hell are the EU Brexit negotiators in Brussels thinking this morning? > > > > > > They think the British are deluded and unserious. They have dealt with that type before, including the Greeks > > > > I expect they are thinking that there is no-one on the UK side to negotiate with who has a mandate in parliament and that there probably will not be in the next 12 months so will be planning for delay and further extension. > > ------- > > There's an argument for the EU to do nothing. They want a deal on their terms. As long as nothing is agreed and the UK doesn't do anything, they keep that. Should Johnson or someone else move to No Deal, expect a ton of bricks from the EU side. They will make No Deal extremely unpleasant for us.
Not sure if you are right on this.
Johnson, Rabb and any other brexiteer PM does not need to do anything and we are out with no deal on the 31st October, unless the EU panic and offer an unconditional extension.
With Farage likely to team up with Le Pen and Italy's Lega in the EU Parliament the EU are likely to want us out as soon as possible so they will have a decision to make on whether to negotiate on the deal or cause economic chaos across the EU and especially in Ireland, France and the Low Countries
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Dura_Ace said: > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > > The Australian Labor Party has elected leftwinger Anthony Albanese unopposed to succeed Bill Shorten as Labor leader following its recent election defeat > > > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-48362272 > > > > > > > > > > Doubling down on the culture wars... > > > > > > > > > > > > Is he hard left?? if so another defeat will beckon... > > > > He's a completely unreconstructed anti-monarchist and loves The Smiths. He gets the DA imprimatur. > > Hmmm. Given Morrisey's apparent views these days is loving the Smiths still a viable cultural choice for an aspiring Marxist leader?
Stalin's early albums were pretty good until Holodomor and The Great Terror. Even Great Patriotic War didn't make up for those turkeys.
> @Foxy said: > So let me get this right. > > > > We were told that the LibDems would get their best result since 1910. > > > > Instead the LibDems got their best result since 2010. > > > > Only a century out. > > LDs got their best ever results in a Euro election. > > Conservatives got relegated to 5th place.
Bit of a pity then that the LibDems didn't predict the best ever results in a Euro election.
Instead we got talk of the best result since 1910 and a million LibDem votes in London.
> @TheValiant said: > Downloaded this from my (proper) local council. Sefton. > > BXP GAIN BOOTLE! > > "I Margaret Carney Local Returning Officer appointed for the Sefton Counting Area at the European Parliamentary Election in the North West Region held on 23 May 2019 hereby certify and declare that: > > The total number of valid votes given to each registered party and individual candidate in Sefton Counting Area is as follows: > > PARTY/INDIVIDUAL CANDIDATE > NUMBER OF VOTES > Change UK – The Independent Group > 1762 > Conservative and Unionist Party > 3609 > English Democrats > 363 > Green Party > 7717 > Labour Party > 17581 > Liberal Democrats > 12438 > The Brexit Party > 19848 > UK European Union Party (UKEUP) > 234 > UK Independence Party (UKIP) > 2006 > Aslam, Mohmmad > 20 > Robinson, Tommy > 954"
That looks like a relatively good result for the Conservatives given where it is!
What that actually shows is there is still a majority for Brexit but a compromise Brexit with a Deal but the problem Brexit Party came first last night on a No Deal platform and the LDs came second on an EUref2 platform
If parliament tries to block no deal half of Tory party will defect to brexit party and force GE and brexit party will win under ftpt and no deal will happen either way
> @HYUFD said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/jennirsl/status/1132943056456560641 > > What that actually shows is there is still a majority for Brexit but a compromise Brexit with a Deal but the problem Brexit Party came first last night on a No Deal platform and the LDs came second on an EUref2 platform
Uh? You choose the smallest column as the one you think has most support?
> @kle4 said: > > @Foxy said: > > > https://twitter.com/SebDance/status/1132926579519172608 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If pro Pv parties are as we all know anti Brexit why not just revoke? Given they are wanting remain a Pv is just a process issue, and they would be foolish to risk Brexit happening. And given they are explicit the purpose is not to ask for our say but to remain, they would not make it binding and would fight it if we did confirm to leave. > > > > > > No deal or revoke, let's stop pretending thats not where we end up. > > > > > > In the absence of another extension Revoke and No Deal are the only options. > > > > ---------- > > > > I wouldn't rule out a deal, precisely because those are the only other options. > > How does a deal happen? One cannot even be offered to parliament again until a new Tory PM comes in, if they then survive a VONC, and the chances of getting something new to then put to parliament looks vanishingly slim, as not enough Lab MPs fear Brexit not happening and too many Tories fear BXP to back a deal again. > > The Tories should pick an unambiguous no dealer. I do not think they would avoid a VONC, and I doubt they would a GE doing so, but a pragmatist won't be able to succeed either and will only delay the inevitable path the members want.
------------------
The Greeks voted an overwhelming No to the EU deal in a referendum that the government itself called, only for the government to then accept a worse again package a couple of weeks later. This is the sort of thing that happens in a crisis when you finally face reality. We're not facing reality yet, but when we do, it will be a Suez megaplus humiliation.
> Remain did beat the most extreme form of Leave thanks to votes from people ineligible to take part in the referendum
Just like Clinton only win the popular vote by 3 million because of fake votes.
Trumpist claptrap, I expected better from you.
Votes from people ineligible to vote in the referendum aren’t fake, but it’s silly not to accept that the electorate in the Euros is different from that in the ref
Life is so weird, imagine you'd been told 15 years ago that Labour would bury itself alive through increasingly unconvincing triangulation, you'd have said, "those blairites"
> @Benpointer said: > > @TOPPING said: > > The critical question is as follows. If Stewart, Rudd et al are so adamant that they will not support a no dealer how would that translate into action should a no dealer become PM? > > > > VONC support would mean deselection and near certain job loss. > > > > How many are there willing to do this? Grieve we know would be one. How many others? > > Doesn't it only need two Con defectors in theory?
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @FF43 said: > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > @FF43 said: > > > > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > > > What the hell are the EU Brexit negotiators in Brussels thinking this morning? > > > > > > > > They think the British are deluded and unserious. They have dealt with that type before, including the Greeks > > > > > > I expect they are thinking that there is no-one on the UK side to negotiate with who has a mandate in parliament and that there probably will not be in the next 12 months so will be planning for delay and further extension. > > > > ------- > > > > There's an argument for the EU to do nothing. They want a deal on their terms. As long as nothing is agreed and the UK doesn't do anything, they keep that. Should Johnson or someone else move to No Deal, expect a ton of bricks from the EU side. They will make No Deal extremely unpleasant for us. > > Not sure if you are right on this. > > Johnson, Rabb and any other brexiteer PM does not need to do anything and we are out with no deal on the 31st October, unless the EU panic and offer an unconditional extension. > > With Farage likely to team up with Le Pen and Italy's Lega in the EU Parliament the EU are likely to want us out as soon as possible so they will have a decision to make on whether to negotiate on the deal or cause economic chaos across the EU and especially in Ireland, France and the Low Countries
The EU are delighted with ongoing extension, it minimises UK influence in the EU, shifts great businesses and jobs from the UK to the EU without the high risk of recession and collapse that Brexit itself will cause. There will be theatre and drama to allow Macron to posture again, but they will very gladly extend.
> @Foxy said: > So let me get this right. > > > > We were told that the LibDems would get their best result since 1910. > > > > Instead the LibDems got their best result since 2010. > > > > Only a century out. > > LDs got their best ever results in a Euro election. > > Conservatives got relegated to 5th place.
The Tories were certainly relegated - when the BBC put the party percentages on the big screen they only showed the top four. Then it switched over to the second division which contained the Tories and the other also-rans.
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > The Brexit Party completely boss the election and end up as the largest individual party in the whole EU parliament. And yet the establishment creates it's own vote totals, supported actively by Sky and the BBC, to create the narrative that remain won. > > > > > > > > > > > > And they wonder why the Brexit Party won? > > > > > > Remain did beat the most extreme form of Leave thanks to votes from people ineligible to take part in the referendum, but it’s disingenous to class No Deal as Leave. > > > > This is going to be the excuse now, is it? Foreigners. > > > > Beyond parody. > > It’s true actually > > Shame you backed your opinion with a price when I asked
You say it's true, but what's the evidence? The gap between Remain parties and No Deal parties is 5.5% by my reckoning.
If you're claiming that 1 in 20 of voters were ineligible to vote in a referendum you need to back it up with a number.
> @TOPPING said: > The critical question is as follows. If Stewart, Rudd et al are so adamant that they will not support a no dealer how would that translate into action should a no dealer become PM? > > VONC support would mean deselection and near certain job loss. > > How many are there willing to do this? Grieve we know would be one. How many others?
Hammond has said he is prepared to VONC in that situation - which suggests there’d be considerably more than the two required at an absolute minimum.
> @ah009 said: > > @isam > > Remain did beat the most extreme form of Leave thanks to votes from people ineligible to take part in the referendum > > Just like Clinton only win the popular vote by 3 million because of fake votes. > Trumpist claptrap, I expected better from you. >
No it is a fair point and I am not sure how you factor it into the calculations. How many of those voting in the EU elections on Thursday will be eligible to vote in any referendum revote in the future? EU citizens were eligible to vote in these elections and probably did so in reasonable numbers. They will not be eligible to vote in any future revote. What difference does that make?
Does the 'Second Vote, Second Referendum, People's Vote', whatever you call it leave everything the same as it is now: it would not suddenly create a House of Commons that would agree something, any more than the last or next GE will. As a solution it is a unicorn. It keeps being argued for as if it is a solution. It isn't.
Comments
> > @Barnesian said:
> > > @JonWC said:
> > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
> >
> > ************************************************************************************
> > As responsible MPs, with their constituents interests at heart, they vote to keep No Deal off the ballot paper in case their constituents self harm.
>
> Indeed why even let the plebs vote at all. Just let their "betters" decide what is best for them. Oligarchy forever!
That is representative democracy you are describing. It is our system. It is a powerful defence against demagogues who fire up the people, aided by a rabid press, and possibly foreign money.
> Top trolling analogy seen somewhere else:
>
> If Remain United beats Leave FC 6-5, Leave FC doesn’t get to claim the win just because all of its five goals were scored by the same striker.
But Leave FC get 'man of the match' probably ! Farage will influence the future more than any other politician which is not good as it will increase vastly the chances of a Marxist government with not even a safety net of being in the EU. Dangerous times for UK.
> I mean I know no one (not even remainers) really cares but does anyone have a good summary of how the rest of the EU voted last night? I thought that the BBC coverage was incredibly parochial given the nature of the election.
Well, here in Germany the Greens did well, about 20% - coming 2nd after CDU-CSU. I wouldn't expect people to vote particularly differently in a general election (unlike in the UK). The SPD continue to decline, and I do wonder what the point of them is these days, at least at the federal level. The AfD got 10% which was a big gain on the last Euros, but a decline on the 2017 federal elections, so they seem to be going backwards.
Turnout was a high 61% - does anyone have any explanation for the wildly different turnouts in different EU countries?
The number of MEPS each party gets is decided according to the Sainte-Laguë method, which is similar to D'Hondt, but is a bit more favorable to small parties (I think). The whole of Germany is one constituency for the purpose of allocating numbers of seats per party. And there is a closed party list system for deciding which individuals get to be MEPs. However, each Bundesland has its own party lists, and how many MEPs each Bundesland gets is determined by how many votes there are in each region, as I understand it. So the candidates at the top of the party lists here in NRW get to be the MEPS for NRW (despite Germany being one constituency). At least that's how I think it works. Clever, in a way, and certainly much more proportional than the UK system, while retaining a sense of regional representation.
It also avoids having to think about tactically voting - except for the very small parties. This time 3 parties that got 0.7% of the national vote ended up with one MEP each. There seem to have been 4 different animal rights parties on the ballot, the biggest one got 1.4% and one MEP, the others got no MEPs, but if they had managed to all get together I guess they would have got 2 MEPs.
> https://twitter.com/SebDance/status/1132926579519172608
>
>
>
> If pro Pv parties are as we all know anti Brexit why not just revoke? Given they are wanting remain a Pv is just a process issue, and they would be foolish to risk Brexit happening. And given they are explicit the purpose is not to ask for our say but to remain, they would not make it binding and would fight it if we did confirm to leave.
>
> No deal or revoke, let's stop pretending thats not where we end up.
>
> In the absence of another extension Revoke and No Deal are the only options.
Sounds simple but not true.
If we revoke we still have Brexit party with a potential of 30% which is feasibly enough to win a GE, particularly if some leading Tories switched after revoke which means we are only ever one GE from leaving for the next 10 years and Brexit will still divide and dominate.
If we No Deal, we still need to deals with the EU! Which will be very similar to the withdrawal agreement but have to be done without any agreed mandate or support in the country, it will continue to be chaotic and divisive.
Neither are settled end points, they are simply expressions of peoples desires.
> > @solarflare said:
> > We might as well just fast forward and get on with the business of organising a No Deal vs. Revoke referendum.
>
> Political class don't have the guts to risk putting No Deal on the ballot paper.
I think we will be able to revisit that once the next Conservative leader is in position.
> > @not_on_fire said:
> > > @numbertwelve said:
> >
> > > > @anothernick said:
> >
> > > > My takeaways from the results:
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > 1 Remain parties clearly ahead of Leave parties and if you add Labour to remain and the Tories to leave (yes I know the caveats) then remain even further ahead.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > 2 Labour will now move to a remain and reform position, if the leadership do not move then their hand will be forced by the party conference, but I think they will move.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > 3 There is no majority for a no deal exit, if a new Tory PM tries to leave without a deal Tory rebels will be able to say they have the public on their side when they act to prevent it and winning a general election or referendum for a no deal exit looks a very tall order.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > 4 So the possibility of a no deal exit has been diminished by yesterday's results. And if the choice is now no deal or no Brexit then no Brexit looks more likely than ever.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I am not so confident that this takes no deal off the table. If anything I think it makes it much more likely.
> >
> > Your forgetting about the stay at home party who couldn’t be arsed to vote last Thursday but will vote in referendum if they are told nanny knows best again . Leave will win , the silent majority will speak when they have to ,
> >
> > So a 12% win for the Brexit Party actually means the country is now REMAIN and we should have a second referendum???
> >
> > So a 31% vote for the Brexit party means the whole country wants an immediate no-deal Brexit?
>
> 31% is more than half of 52% so that is the majority Leave view.
>
Which is certain to drive enough sane leavers away from Brexit to reinforce the now-majority remain view in the country.
It needs repeating, politics isn't a knock out tournament.
> What the hell are the EU Brexit negotiators in Brussels thinking this morning?
>
> Book a long holiday until October
>
> They have that anyway. A condition of the extension was that negotiations over the WA were over, though the PD could have minor ammendments.
>
> There simply are no negotiations for the Brexiteers to restart, and post No Deal the same three issues will be on the table, including the Irish border.
>
> I am sanguine about No Deal/ No Plan Brexit. It is the shortest route to the discrediting of the Brexiteers and counter revolution.
>
> Most remainers disagree given how hard they have fought to have even BINO. The psychological effect of leaving at all is clearly worrisome.
Even intrastat returns continue under May's exit plan for the forseeable future, there are no tariffs.. we'll be locked into the backstop forever and things will work precisely as they did when we were in the EU.
Economically it is pretty much identical, the difference is cultural symbolism. We will be very much out of the EU, that's the part remainers hate I think - the values argument.
> > @solarflare said:
> > We might as well just fast forward and get on with the business of organising a No Deal vs. Revoke referendum.
>
> Political class don't have the guts to risk putting No Deal on the ballot paper.
---------
Good if they don't. No Deal is mad. You shouldn't put unviable options into a referendum. Which is a strong reason why I think a second referendum is difficult. If we go to No Deal, it will likely be unconscious. Those in charge of a falling Brexit policy have run out of options
> The Brexit dilemma will be resolved when the country goes into the now overdue recession. Whosoever is in power will get the blame and the country will swing the other way.
Very possible.
Though we might get a rerun of the 1970s with one side being blamed and then the other.
> https://twitter.com/SebDance/status/1132926579519172608
>
>
>
> If pro Pv parties are as we all know anti Brexit why not just revoke? Given they are wanting remain a Pv is just a process issue, and they would be foolish to risk Brexit happening. And given they are explicit the purpose is not to ask for our say but to remain, they would not make it binding and would fight it if we did confirm to leave.
>
> No deal or revoke, let's stop pretending thats not where we end up.
>
> In the absence of another extension Revoke and No Deal are the only options.
----------
I wouldn't rule out a deal, precisely because those are the only other options.
> > @El_Capitano said:
> > Top trolling analogy seen somewhere else:
> >
> > If Remain United beats Leave FC 6-5, Leave FC doesn’t get to claim the win just because all of its five goals were scored by the same striker.
>
> But Leave FC get 'man of the match' probably ! Farage will influence the future more than any other politician which is not good as it will increase vastly the chances of a Marxist government with not even a safety net of being in the EU. Dangerous times for UK.
It may be time to 'insure' against a Marxist government by the tories proposing PR General elections - Might get it passed if enough tories see the real danger heading the country's way .
Conservatives got relegated to 5th place.
> > @isam said:
> > Meanwhile .... In a celestial world far, far away a certain @MarkSenior dressed in a bright yellow punk outfit strums his harp and screeches :
> >
> >
> >
> > "Never Mind The Bollocks, Here's The Liberal Democrats."
> >
> > It would have been a nice touch if one of the site moderators had logged into Mark Seniors account and ‘liked’ that comment
>
> ............................................................................................................
>
> Indeed.
>
> Let us also not forget @Plato ,who I disagreed with on most subjects, but clearly will be digging @MarkSenior in the ribs and shouting "Bollocks To Remainers" not too softly in his ears !! ..
An afterlife with Plato & Mark Senior bellowing at each other suggests that they're both being punished rather than enjoying heavenly repose.
...
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @solarflare said:
> > > We might as well just fast forward and get on with the business of organising a No Deal vs. Revoke referendum.
> >
> > Political class don't have the guts to risk putting No Deal on the ballot paper.
>
> ---------
>
> Good if they don't. No Deal is mad. You shouldn't put unviable options into a referendum. Which is a strong reason why I think a second referendum is difficult. If we go to No Deal, it will likely be unconscious. Those in charge of a falling Brexit policy have run out of options
FFS
No deal is an "option" if, and only if, you think UK legislation and the other doings of the UK parliament are binding on the President of France.
> ...
Brexit Party landslide at the next FPTP general election?
> https://twitter.com/TheaDickinson/status/1132935729334620161
I would respect any advocate of No Deal if they also promised to sack Fox and Grayling.
Until then its all posturing and no planning.
> The BBC headline is:
>
> BREXIT PARTY DOMINATES IN EU ELECTIONS
>
> Farage has won the media narrative.
>
> And the desperate pasting of tweets is not going to reverse that.
Biased BBC?
"OK, the big moment has arrived.
A few days ago I published on here my proposed model for turning the Euro results into an equivalent EU Ref2 outcome.
There were some minor quibbles regarding the methodology and assumptions, but if you recall I made the relevant adjustments where necessary, based on the copious and intelligent feedback received, and we ended up with something that all agreed was about as good as it is possible to get.
I have now crunched the actual numbers and below is the 'Referendum' result.
LEAVE 50%
REMAIN 50%
Ladies and Gentlemen, we are stuffed."
.....................................................................................
Easy solution .... Give the Speaker the casting vote ....
Retires swiftly with tin helmet ....
1. I think the EU would agree an extension for a GE.
2. On the Tory prospects, I think you are making the same mistake which the party is about to make, namely that they can shoot Farage’s fox by shifting to a deliberate no deal crashout. It won’t work - surely by now we should have learnt that the ERG/Kippers/Faragists will always scream Betrayal whatever is actually proposed. The Tories can’t out-Farage Farage. They’ll be squeezed from both sides, and shellacked in any election. They’ll also be blamed for a generation for the no-deal fallout.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @solarflare said:
> > > We might as well just fast forward and get on with the business of organising a No Deal vs. Revoke referendum.
> >
> > Political class don't have the guts to risk putting No Deal on the ballot paper.
>
> ---------
>
> Good if they don't. No Deal is mad. You shouldn't put unviable options into a referendum. Which is a strong reason why I think a second referendum is difficult. If we go to No Deal, it will likely be unconscious. Those in charge of a falling Brexit policy have run out of options
There has to be a referendum. Without it, a party could put something in their manifesto, win a majority on 35% and take that as a mandate. Imagine a Remain Labour cancelling Brexit on 35%. Or Brexit Party WTOing on 35%.
Same with Scottish independence. SNP majority likely; what if they seek a mandate for indy that way because the Holyrood vote for a ref is ignored?
These are all very real possibilities.
The EU27 are much better prepared for No Deal than us, economically and politically, and both sides know it.
The Tories should pick an unambiguous no dealer. I do not think they would avoid a VONC, and I doubt they would a GE doing so, but a pragmatist won't be able to succeed either and will only delay the inevitable path the members want.
> https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1132922609887260677
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1132923240152752128
>
>
>
> Yes getting more votes than next 3 parties combined, sure they will be disappointed.
Amazed that wee Paul is even bothering with this since his paper seems entirely concerned with Farage & England.
https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1132874068670201857
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/TheaDickinson/status/1132935729334620161
>
> I would respect any advocate of No Deal if they also promised to sack Fox and Grayling.
>
> Until then its all posturing and no planning.
What does a Raab cabinet look like? Looking at his list of backers Fox and Grayling will look like star players.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/26/brexit-top-tories-would-bring-down-any-pm-who-backs-no-deal
> ...
I'd say the most surprising TBP wins were Cardiff, Exeter and Tunbridge Wells.
The most surprising TBP losses were Barking, Westmoreland and Watford.
"An afterlife with Plato & Mark Senior bellowing at each other suggests that they're both being punished rather than enjoying heavenly repose."
.......................................................................................
I have this sneaking suspicion that they'd both rather enjoy bellowing at each other between extended bouts of celestial repose .....
Talk about a constitutional crisis. Jeez.
And they wonder why the Brexit Party won?
> > @FF43 said:
> > > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > What the hell are the EU Brexit negotiators in Brussels thinking this morning?
> >
> > They think the British are deluded and unserious. They have dealt with that type before, including the Greeks
>
> I expect they are thinking that there is no-one on the UK side to negotiate with who has a mandate in parliament and that there probably will not be in the next 12 months so will be planning for delay and further extension.
-------
There's an argument for the EU to do nothing. They want a deal on their terms. As long as nothing is agreed and the UK doesn't do anything, they keep that. Should Johnson or someone else move to No Deal, expect a ton of bricks from the EU side. They will make No Deal extremely unpleasant for us.
> > @brokenwheel said:
>
> > The Australian Labor Party has elected leftwinger Anthony Albanese unopposed to succeed Bill Shorten as Labor leader following its recent election defeat
>
> >
>
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-48362272
>
> >
>
> > Doubling down on the culture wars...
>
>
>
>
>
> Is he hard left?? if so another defeat will beckon...
>
> He's a completely unreconstructed anti-monarchist and loves The Smiths. He gets the DA imprimatur.
Hmmm. Given Morrisey's apparent views these days is loving the Smiths still a viable cultural choice for an aspiring Marxist leader?
I’m struggling to do so, but I’m interested in the rational Tory view.
> > @another_richard said:
>
> > > @Scott_P said:
>
> > > https://twitter.com/TheaDickinson/status/1132935729334620161
>
>
>
> >
>
> > I would respect any advocate of No Deal if they also promised to sack Fox and Grayling.
>
> >
>
> > Until then its all posturing and no planning.
>
>
>
> What does a Raab cabinet look like? Looking at his list of backers Fox and Grayling will look like star players.
>
> So Raab plans to crash us out on 31st Oct, against the will of the House of Commons.
>
> Talk about a constitutional crisis. Jeez.
He plans for the GE that would happen if he tried it.
BXP GAIN BOOTLE!
"I Margaret Carney Local Returning Officer appointed for the Sefton Counting Area at the European Parliamentary Election in the North West Region held on 23 May 2019 hereby certify and declare that:
The total number of valid votes given to each registered party and individual candidate in Sefton Counting Area is as follows:
PARTY/INDIVIDUAL CANDIDATE
NUMBER OF VOTES
Change UK – The Independent Group
1762
Conservative and Unionist Party
3609
English Democrats
363
Green Party
7717
Labour Party
17581
Liberal Democrats
12438
The Brexit Party
19848
UK European Union Party (UKEUP)
234
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
2006
Aslam, Mohmmad
20
Robinson, Tommy
954"
> https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1132940897950273538
>
>
>
> Hmm. Good luck finding "a credible leave" deal.
-----------
May's Deal is a credible leave deal imho. No-Dealers don't like it by definition. As a Remainer I don't like it much (again by definition). But it's a credible deal.
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1132939645707280385?s=21
DUP and SF will surely keep their single seat but the final one, won in 2014 by the UUP, looks up for grabs.
Many Leavers wouldn’t vote for a Farage led No Deal party, but most Remainers wouldn’t have a problem voting Lib Dem, Green or ChUK
> @Theuniondivvie said:
>
> "An afterlife with Plato & Mark Senior bellowing at each other suggests that they're both being punished rather than enjoying heavenly repose."
>
> .......................................................................................
>
> I have this sneaking suspicion that they'd both rather enjoy bellowing at each other between extended bouts of celestial repose .....
Fair enough, I'm probably transposing my own vision of hell (being stuck between them) onto the idea.
* To learn things
* To provide entertainment
And hence in the long (hopefully medium!) term gain sufficient skill to win sums of money at gambling (or more realistically, insure against bad political outcomes)
> > @rottenborough said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> >
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> >
> > > > https://twitter.com/TheaDickinson/status/1132935729334620161
> >
> >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I would respect any advocate of No Deal if they also promised to sack Fox and Grayling.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Until then its all posturing and no planning.
> >
> >
> >
> > What does a Raab cabinet look like? Looking at his list of backers Fox and Grayling will look like star players.
> >
> > So Raab plans to crash us out on 31st Oct, against the will of the House of Commons.
> >
> > Talk about a constitutional crisis. Jeez.
>
> He plans for the GE that would happen if he tried it.
Which is very likely to be a hung parliament both in party terms and between revoke, deal and no deal. Then what?
> The Brexit Party completely boss the election and end up as the largest individual party in the whole EU parliament. And yet the establishment creates it's own vote totals, supported actively by Sky and the BBC, to create the narrative that remain won.
>
>
>
> And they wonder why the Brexit Party won?
>
> Remain did beat the most extreme form of Leave thanks to votes from people ineligible to take part in the referendum, but it’s disingenous to class No Deal as Leave.
This is going to be the excuse now, is it? Foreigners.
Beyond parody.
Shame you backed your opinion with a price when I asked
Airbus now wants to remain in UK regardless of Brexit outcome
https://www.euractiv.com/section/aviation/news/airbus-now-wants-to-remain-in-uk-regardless-of-brexit-outcome/
> Let's assume the Tories select a no dealer in response to yesterday's result. Let's further assume that parliament recoil in horror at the prospect. MPs otherwise loathe to trigger a General Election - considering their own personal likely defeat - may do so when it's clear that an election is the only way to possibly avoid no deal.
>
>
>
> The parliamentary timetable focuses minds. An election before 31st October can only be on 3 dates: 17th, 24th or 31st October. I cannot see the new Tory leader being permitted to ask for an extension, so the end of October it is.
>
>
>
> Question - if the 80% or so of the remaining Tory party is clearly saying vote for me and we'll no deal on Halloween, would there be any point in their voters staying with Farage? Would Tory voters trust a Boris to actually deliver, or would they want a pure Brexiteer MP instead? Would Farage's ego allow him not to run a full slate?
>
>
>
> What I am saying is that I can see a way for the Conservatives to win an October election. I cannot see a way for Corbyn-led Labour to win an October election
>
> An interesting post. However, I have my doubts.
>
> 1. I think the EU would agree an extension for a GE.
> 2. On the Tory prospects, I think you are making the same mistake which the party is about to make, namely that they can shoot Farage’s fox by shifting to a deliberate no deal crashout. It won’t work - surely by now we should have learnt that the ERG/Kippers/Faragists will always scream Betrayal whatever is actually proposed. The Tories can’t out-Farage Farage. They’ll be squeezed from both sides, and shellacked in any election. They’ll also be blamed for a generation for the no-deal fallout.
>
> Do you see any way out of their bind, Richard ?
> I’m struggling to do so, but I’m interested in the rational Tory view.
one way out for the tories is to pivot to a referendum with only 2 choices:
Brexit with (slightly tweaked?) May's deal
Brexit with no deal
and then carry out the result
sure the wreckers will still scream Betrayal, but would many listen?
of course, the majority who want either a softer brexit or no brexit will be rightly extremely pissed off, but at a general election their votes are divided.
We need PR now - and maybe if enough Conservative and Labour MPs see FPTP as a disadvantage, there might be a unique opportunity before the next election to introduce it. Or it least there could be if they weren't so busy with bloody brexit.
> https://twitter.com/jennirsl/status/1132943056456560641
Is there a reason for excluding the SNP from the anti-Brexit total?
Maybe Scots are now classed as foreigners?
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/jennirsl/status/1132943056456560641
>
> Is there a reason for excluding the SNP from the anti-Brexit total?
>
> Maybe Scots are now classed as foreigners?
Full result not in from Scotland
> > @FF43 said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @solarflare said:
> > > > We might as well just fast forward and get on with the business of organising a No Deal vs. Revoke referendum.
> > >
> > > Political class don't have the guts to risk putting No Deal on the ballot paper.
> >
> > ---------
> >
> > Good if they don't. No Deal is mad. You shouldn't put unviable options into a referendum. Which is a strong reason why I think a second referendum is difficult. If we go to No Deal, it will likely be unconscious. Those in charge of a falling Brexit policy have run out of options
>
> There has to be a referendum. Without it, a party could put something in their manifesto, win a majority on 35% and take that as a mandate. Imagine a Remain Labour cancelling Brexit on 35%. Or Brexit Party WTOing on 35%.
> Same with Scottish independence. SNP majority likely; what if they seek a mandate for indy that way because the Holyrood vote for a ref is ignored?
> These are all very real possibilities.
Clearly from last night's results there is no mandate for rerunning the referendum. And even ignoring the fact it would be an affront to democracy, what are you going to ask? Parliament won't allow No Deal onto the ballot and there is no deal to put on there. So your choice seems to be do you want to Remain or do you want to not leave?
VONC support would mean deselection and near certain job loss.
How many are there willing to do this? Grieve we know would be one. How many others?
> The critical question is as follows. If Stewart, Rudd et al are so adamant that they will not support a no dealer how would that translate into action should a no dealer become PM?
>
> VONC support would mean deselection and near certain job loss.
>
> How many are there willing to do this? Grieve we know would be one. How many others?
Doesn't it only need two Con defectors in theory?
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @FF43 said:
> > > > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > > What the hell are the EU Brexit negotiators in Brussels thinking this morning?
> > >
> > > They think the British are deluded and unserious. They have dealt with that type before, including the Greeks
> >
> > I expect they are thinking that there is no-one on the UK side to negotiate with who has a mandate in parliament and that there probably will not be in the next 12 months so will be planning for delay and further extension.
>
> -------
>
> There's an argument for the EU to do nothing. They want a deal on their terms. As long as nothing is agreed and the UK doesn't do anything, they keep that. Should Johnson or someone else move to No Deal, expect a ton of bricks from the EU side. They will make No Deal extremely unpleasant for us.
Not sure if you are right on this.
Johnson, Rabb and any other brexiteer PM does not need to do anything and we are out with no deal on the 31st October, unless the EU panic and offer an unconditional extension.
With Farage likely to team up with Le Pen and Italy's Lega in the EU Parliament the EU are likely to want us out as soon as possible so they will have a decision to make on whether to negotiate on the deal or cause economic chaos across the EU and especially in Ireland, France and the Low Countries
> > @Dura_Ace said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> >
> > > The Australian Labor Party has elected leftwinger Anthony Albanese unopposed to succeed Bill Shorten as Labor leader following its recent election defeat
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-48362272
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Doubling down on the culture wars...
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Is he hard left?? if so another defeat will beckon...
> >
> > He's a completely unreconstructed anti-monarchist and loves The Smiths. He gets the DA imprimatur.
>
> Hmmm. Given Morrisey's apparent views these days is loving the Smiths still a viable cultural choice for an aspiring Marxist leader?
Stalin's early albums were pretty good until Holodomor and The Great Terror. Even Great Patriotic War didn't make up for those turkeys.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/jennirsl/status/1132943056456560641
>
> Is there a reason for excluding the SNP from the anti-Brexit total?
>
> Maybe Scots are now classed as foreigners?
Scotland had not yet officially declared its results and nor has Northern Ireland they come later today
> So let me get this right.
>
>
>
> We were told that the LibDems would get their best result since 1910.
>
>
>
> Instead the LibDems got their best result since 2010.
>
>
>
> Only a century out.
>
> LDs got their best ever results in a Euro election.
>
> Conservatives got relegated to 5th place.
Bit of a pity then that the LibDems didn't predict the best ever results in a Euro election.
Instead we got talk of the best result since 1910 and a million LibDem votes in London.
> Downloaded this from my (proper) local council. Sefton.
>
> BXP GAIN BOOTLE!
>
> "I Margaret Carney Local Returning Officer appointed for the Sefton Counting Area at the European Parliamentary Election in the North West Region held on 23 May 2019 hereby certify and declare that:
>
> The total number of valid votes given to each registered party and individual candidate in Sefton Counting Area is as follows:
>
> PARTY/INDIVIDUAL CANDIDATE
> NUMBER OF VOTES
> Change UK – The Independent Group
> 1762
> Conservative and Unionist Party
> 3609
> English Democrats
> 363
> Green Party
> 7717
> Labour Party
> 17581
> Liberal Democrats
> 12438
> The Brexit Party
> 19848
> UK European Union Party (UKEUP)
> 234
> UK Independence Party (UKIP)
> 2006
> Aslam, Mohmmad
> 20
> Robinson, Tommy
> 954"
That looks like a relatively good result for the Conservatives given where it is!
> Remain did beat the most extreme form of Leave thanks to votes from people ineligible to take part in the referendum
Just like Clinton only won the popular vote by 3 million because of fake votes.
Trumpist claptrap, I expected better from you.
> Oh and look what slipped by without a mention from our resident Remainiacs...
>
> Airbus now wants to remain in UK regardless of Brexit outcome
> https://www.euractiv.com/section/aviation/news/airbus-now-wants-to-remain-in-uk-regardless-of-brexit-outcome/
They're probably thinking at current rates of progress Brexit is not going to affect their next 5-10 year strategic plan
> https://twitter.com/jennirsl/status/1132943056456560641
What that actually shows is there is still a majority for Brexit but a compromise Brexit with a Deal but the problem Brexit Party came first last night on a No Deal platform and the LDs came second on an EUref2 platform
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/jennirsl/status/1132943056456560641
>
> What that actually shows is there is still a majority for Brexit but a compromise Brexit with a Deal but the problem Brexit Party came first last night on a No Deal platform and the LDs came second on an EUref2 platform
Uh? You choose the smallest column as the one you think has most support?
> > @Foxy said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/SebDance/status/1132926579519172608
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > If pro Pv parties are as we all know anti Brexit why not just revoke? Given they are wanting remain a Pv is just a process issue, and they would be foolish to risk Brexit happening. And given they are explicit the purpose is not to ask for our say but to remain, they would not make it binding and would fight it if we did confirm to leave.
>
> >
>
> > No deal or revoke, let's stop pretending thats not where we end up.
>
> >
>
> > In the absence of another extension Revoke and No Deal are the only options.
>
>
>
> ----------
>
>
>
> I wouldn't rule out a deal, precisely because those are the only other options.
>
> How does a deal happen? One cannot even be offered to parliament again until a new Tory PM comes in, if they then survive a VONC, and the chances of getting something new to then put to parliament looks vanishingly slim, as not enough Lab MPs fear Brexit not happening and too many Tories fear BXP to back a deal again.
>
> The Tories should pick an unambiguous no dealer. I do not think they would avoid a VONC, and I doubt they would a GE doing so, but a pragmatist won't be able to succeed either and will only delay the inevitable path the members want.
------------------
The Greeks voted an overwhelming No to the EU deal in a referendum that the government itself called, only for the government to then accept a worse again package a couple of weeks later. This is the sort of thing that happens in a crisis when you finally face reality. We're not facing reality yet, but when we do, it will be a Suez megaplus humiliation.
>
>
So before the election the LibDems say that Labour and the Conservatives are pro-Brexit and after the election they say they are not.
https://twitter.com/tomhfh?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://
> > @TOPPING said:
> > The critical question is as follows. If Stewart, Rudd et al are so adamant that they will not support a no dealer how would that translate into action should a no dealer become PM?
> >
> > VONC support would mean deselection and near certain job loss.
> >
> > How many are there willing to do this? Grieve we know would be one. How many others?
>
> Doesn't it only need two Con defectors in theory?
The Peterborough MP will have a decision to make.
> > @FF43 said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > @FF43 said:
> > > > > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > > > What the hell are the EU Brexit negotiators in Brussels thinking this morning?
> > > >
> > > > They think the British are deluded and unserious. They have dealt with that type before, including the Greeks
> > >
> > > I expect they are thinking that there is no-one on the UK side to negotiate with who has a mandate in parliament and that there probably will not be in the next 12 months so will be planning for delay and further extension.
> >
> > -------
> >
> > There's an argument for the EU to do nothing. They want a deal on their terms. As long as nothing is agreed and the UK doesn't do anything, they keep that. Should Johnson or someone else move to No Deal, expect a ton of bricks from the EU side. They will make No Deal extremely unpleasant for us.
>
> Not sure if you are right on this.
>
> Johnson, Rabb and any other brexiteer PM does not need to do anything and we are out with no deal on the 31st October, unless the EU panic and offer an unconditional extension.
>
> With Farage likely to team up with Le Pen and Italy's Lega in the EU Parliament the EU are likely to want us out as soon as possible so they will have a decision to make on whether to negotiate on the deal or cause economic chaos across the EU and especially in Ireland, France and the Low Countries
The EU are delighted with ongoing extension, it minimises UK influence in the EU, shifts great businesses and jobs from the UK to the EU without the high risk of recession and collapse that Brexit itself will cause. There will be theatre and drama to allow Macron to posture again, but they will very gladly extend.
> So let me get this right.
>
>
>
> We were told that the LibDems would get their best result since 1910.
>
>
>
> Instead the LibDems got their best result since 2010.
>
>
>
> Only a century out.
>
> LDs got their best ever results in a Euro election.
>
> Conservatives got relegated to 5th place.
The Tories were certainly relegated - when the BBC put the party percentages on the big screen they only showed the top four. Then it switched over to the second division which contained the Tories and the other also-rans.
> > @isam said:
>
> > The Brexit Party completely boss the election and end up as the largest individual party in the whole EU parliament. And yet the establishment creates it's own vote totals, supported actively by Sky and the BBC, to create the narrative that remain won.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > And they wonder why the Brexit Party won?
>
> >
>
> > Remain did beat the most extreme form of Leave thanks to votes from people ineligible to take part in the referendum, but it’s disingenous to class No Deal as Leave.
>
>
>
> This is going to be the excuse now, is it? Foreigners.
>
>
>
> Beyond parody.
>
> It’s true actually
>
> Shame you backed your opinion with a price when I asked
You say it's true, but what's the evidence? The gap between Remain parties and No Deal parties is 5.5% by my reckoning.
If you're claiming that 1 in 20 of voters were ineligible to vote in a referendum you need to back it up with a number.
> Oh and look what slipped by without a mention from our resident Remainiacs...
>
> Airbus now wants to remain in UK regardless of Brexit outcome
> https://www.euractiv.com/section/aviation/news/airbus-now-wants-to-remain-in-uk-regardless-of-brexit-outcome/
Nothing to see here, move along , look squirrel
> The critical question is as follows. If Stewart, Rudd et al are so adamant that they will not support a no dealer how would that translate into action should a no dealer become PM?
>
> VONC support would mean deselection and near certain job loss.
>
> How many are there willing to do this? Grieve we know would be one. How many others?
Hammond has said he is prepared to VONC in that situation - which suggests there’d be considerably more than the two required at an absolute minimum.
> > @isam
> > Remain did beat the most extreme form of Leave thanks to votes from people ineligible to take part in the referendum
>
> Just like Clinton only win the popular vote by 3 million because of fake votes.
> Trumpist claptrap, I expected better from you.
>
No it is a fair point and I am not sure how you factor it into the calculations. How many of those voting in the EU elections on Thursday will be eligible to vote in any referendum revote in the future? EU citizens were eligible to vote in these elections and probably did so in reasonable numbers. They will not be eligible to vote in any future revote. What difference does that make?
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/jennirsl/status/1132943056456560641
>
> Is there a reason for excluding the SNP from the anti-Brexit total?
>
> Maybe Scots are now classed as foreigners?
Scotland hasn't declared yet.