> @ydoethur said: > Two clear findings from the vote. 1. There is a CLEAR majority for Remain however you look at the results 2. Corbyn has to go. He has shown himself unfit to be leader and with him in charge Labour have zero chance of forming a government. > > I'm not sure I would go so far as to say this shows a clear majority for Remain. What it does definitely show is (a) Remainers are more motivated at this moment and (b) their vote is being fragmented among several parties. > > The obvious lesson the Tories will draw is that if they get us out, they will rally a big group of support behind them - probably enough to win an election given said fragmentation. > > And that has to be good news - unfortunately - for leading Brexiteer candidates Gove and Johnson.
Perhaps not. Post No Deal Brexit, how does Boris hold onto those Brexit Party votes?
If indeed he can gain them in the first place to hold his own seat.
A friend of mine is a Corbynite Brexit voter here in the NW who decided to vote Labour because he sensed the trend running badly for them and he wanted Jezza to survive. Don't count the Labour remnants as automatically Remainers. Not in the North.
Yes, of course they were chosen by the membership - but it was made very clear who Momentum and the leadership were backing, much like the much maligned NEC slate. But therein lies the problem, members chose leaders mostly on their perceived loyalty to the leadership, rather than other qualities or a desire for a more independent voice. It's not the most dreadful idea in England - where Corbyn is ultimately effectively always on the ballot paper and where although unpopular in general, he has pockets of popularity and "meh, at least he's not a Tory". It's politically suicidal in devolved countries where leaders have to define themselves by picking fights with their national leadership when UK policy is going down badly in their backyard and with nominally 'progressive' nationalist alternatives. That's very, very complacent about Plaid - their new leader is very effective and look in with a real chance of coming top in the WA elex. We all know what happened in Scotland after the SNP took over as a party of devolved government.
They all said they would work with the leadership (the opposite would be a bit stupid) members chose the one they were ideologically closest to.
I realise as an English centrist that the Welsh Labour leader should be chosen on the basis that they don't like Corbyn and will produce good attacks on him but you have to respect that Welsh Labour members took a rather different view.
The NEC slate was much maligned because it was left wing and up against Progress and Labour First. There is pretty much no good reason to argue they would make much difference outside of Labour itself, if for example you stuck Eddie Izzard on the NEC for one of the Momentum slate...
No difference.
Plaid could do well in the WA but I referenced a GE imparticular. There isn't really much room for them to hugely improve and in a GB election they can easily get drowned out and lost.
> Just turned on the TV to see Nigel Fucking Farage. Not what I needed this morning.
>
> Anyway, he says they will stand 650 candidates at a GE, which surely means they will split the vote with Brexiteer Tories and let in swathes of Lib Dems in otherwise unwinnable seats?
I know, why are the BBC interviewing the leader of the party that got most votes on Thursday?
I'd go much further. An "Alliance" similar to the Lib/SDP electoral agreement of 83/87 between LibDem/CHUK/Green would be a very significant force.
The Peterborough by-election is a missed opportunity but the likely Brecon and Radnor by-election is a substantial opportunity.
More long term the London mayoralty next May looks interesting. With the preferential voting system both LibDem and Greens can run candidates and agree a second preference alliance. With the yellow peril topping the Euro London poll a certain Mr Khan might not be quite so comfy in City Hall today.
Two clear findings from the vote. 1. There is a CLEAR majority for Remain however you look at the results 2. Corbyn has to go. He has shown himself unfit to be leader and with him in charge Labour have zero chance of forming a government.
Whether Emily Thornberry moves against him as she suggested on TV last night or whether the defections turn into a stampede I'll be amazed if he's still in place by the end of October.
I'm pretty sure Emily was on about going to a remain stance rather than changing leader...
She is too talented to be Owen Smith mk2.
You mean she'd win?
She's good, not a miracle worker. I like her too much to see her go down to a thrashing like Owen Smith did.
> Which seats do you forecast Lab gaining in the next GE?
>
> Lab in 5th place in Charnwood so unlikely to be gaining Loughborough. 5th in NW Leics too. 4th in N Warks, 5th in South Warks. 3rd even in Derby, home of Skeletor, behind the LDs.
>
>
>
> You may have noticed that was in the Euro elections rather than a General election, as well as being about different things they tend to have a slightly different turnout...
>
> I didn't forecast Labour gaining particular seats at the last election and yet we managed it regardless.
They did it last time because they looked like the only alternative to Theresa and her Brexiteers. They've lost that USP for ever and frankly without that the party under Corbyn hasn't got a snowball in Hell's chance of forming a government.
Labour are the underdogs then, good. Bring on Farage and Boris...
> @ThomasNashe said: > Trouble for Labour is any pivot towards Remain would be too late. LDs/ Greens have occupied that space. They'll be forced down the road to oblivion.
Just whip an abstention on the MV and passage of the bill ?
> @ThomasNashe said: > Trouble for Labour is any pivot towards Remain would be too late. LDs/ Greens have occupied that space. They'll be forced down the road to oblivion.
Yes, I think they have missed the boat.
A new Leader might be able to get away with such a pivot, but not Corbyn.
> @JackW said: > @Pulpstar said: > > "I wonder if the Greens and Lib Dems will consider a pact at the next General Election with the Greens having an unencumbered run at > > Bristol West > Bristol North West > Norwich South > Sheffield Central > > In return for the Lib Dems having a Green free tilt at other targets ?" > > ............................................................................. > > I'd go much further. An "Alliance" similar to the Lib/SDP electoral agreement of 83/87 between LibDem/CHUK/Green would be a very significant force. > > The Peterborough by-election is a missed opportunity but the likely Brecon and Radnor by-election is a substantial opportunity. > > More long term the London mayoralty next May looks interesting. With the preferential voting system both LibDem and Greens can run candidates and agree a second preference alliance. With the yellow peril topping the Euro London poll a certain Mr Khan might not be quite so comfy in City Hall today. > > Being anti-Brexit could keep them together for the time being, but I think the anti-growth/authoritarian Green agenda would drive them apart, longer term.
> @Roger said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > Which seats do you forecast Lab gaining in the next GE? > > > > Lab in 5th place in Charnwood so unlikely to be gaining Loughborough. 5th in NW Leics too. 4th in N Warks, 5th in South Warks. 3rd even in Derby, home of Skeletor, behind the LDs. > > > > > > > > You may have noticed that was in the Euro elections rather than a General election, as well as being about different things they tend to have a slightly different turnout... > > > > I didn't forecast Labour gaining particular seats at the last election and yet we managed it regardless. > > They did it last time because they looked like the only alternative to Theresa and her Brexiteers. They've lost that USP for ever and frankly without that the party under Corbyn hasn't got a snowball in Hell's chance of forming a government.
It looks like Corbyn has lost the youth vote to the greens and it is not going back.
My 16 year old granddaughter is very much into green issues as are so many of our school children
Furthermore the Lib Dems have shown they are a grounded centre left party clear of marxist dogma and anti semitism. Outside of London and the south labour are facing permanent wipe out in Scotland, disaster in Wales and irrelevance in the north
Time for labour to face the fact Magic Grandpa has lost his magic (if he had any) and need to either split or rid themselves of his malign nature.
The conservatives have a mountain to climb and of course the result does indicate continuing deadlock over Europe
> Trouble for Labour is any pivot towards Remain would be too late. LDs/ Greens have occupied that space. They'll be forced down the road to oblivion.
Yes, I think they have missed the boat.
A new Leader might be able to get away with such a pivot, but not Corbyn.
Yes, this is a key point. People are talking as if the Tories or Labour suddenly embrace Hard Leave /Remain respectively then the voters will come flocking back. I’m not sure that’s the case.
> @Foxy said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > Which seats do you forecast Lab gaining in the next GE? > > > > Lab in 5th place in Charnwood so unlikely to be gaining Loughborough. 5th in NW Leics too. 4th in N Warks, 5th in South Warks. 3rd even in Derby, home of Skeletor, behind the LDs. > > > > > > > > You may have noticed that was in the Euro elections rather than a General election, as well as being about different things they tend to have a slightly different turnout... > > > > I didn't forecast Labour gaining particular seats at the last election and yet we managed it regardless. > > I think you are probably right, we are going to have to have major seat losses for Labour at the next GE to put an end to Corbynism. Shouldn't have long to wait. > > It is becoming easier for anti-No Deal Tory voters to find someone to vote for, without letting Corbyn into number 10.
That is an extremely astute observation. Corbyn has single handedly been holding the Tory party together. No more. The threat has been shown to be a chimera.
> @JackW said: > @Pulpstar said: > > "I wonder if the Greens and Lib Dems will consider a pact at the next General Election with the Greens having an unencumbered run at > > Bristol West > Bristol North West > Norwich South > Sheffield Central > > In return for the Lib Dems having a Green free tilt at other targets ?" > > ............................................................................. > > I'd go much further. An "Alliance" similar to the Lib/SDP electoral agreement of 83/87 between LibDem/CHUK/Green would be a very significant force. > > The Peterborough by-election is a missed opportunity but the likely Brecon and Radnor by-election is a substantial opportunity. > > More long term the London mayoralty next May looks interesting. With the preferential voting system both LibDem and Greens can run candidates and agree a second preference alliance. With the yellow peril topping the Euro London poll a certain Mr Khan might not be quite so comfy in City Hall today. > >
Agree with @Pulpstar and @JackW. Is there anywhere else, other than Brighton obviously, where Greens have a good shout
Seems a lot of slightly optimistic thinking about what this means. The evidence I've read on here suggests that turnout was down disproportionately amongst leavers. Hardly surprising given they already voted to stop these election from taking place and were assured that would be acted on.
What would be interesting is to scale the votes in each area up to the referendum turnout levels (obviously would still be lower in Brexity areas but not disproportionately). Anyone got the spreadsheet wherewithal to do that?
Would it not be fair to say that many of the tories who stayed loyal do not want a straight leave but a negotiated leave. This was the message in Scotland where the tories got more votes than England.
Chasing the brexit party votes threatens to destroy the Tory party and potentially the country. It is a very tricky situation requiring a good leader.
You seem to have whole different elections going on in Scotland...
I get the impression in England and Wales it was mainly very loyal Tory voters left, maybe some element of deal supporters (as opposed to no deal) but I think the Tories would have to actively try to get rid of them, some might argue they already have.
You just noticing, 12 years in power and SNP still getting more votes. It is only a matter of time.
> @ydoethur said: > I wonder if the Greens and Lib Dems will consider a pact at the next General Election with the Greens having an unencumbered run at > > > > Bristol West > > Bristol North West > > Norwich South > > Sheffield Central > > > > In return for the Lib Dems having a Green free tilt at other targets ? > > You wonder how much that would help them, though. My very strong impression is that the Greens and Liberal Democrats attract very different sorts of voters and if they were interested in switching, they already would have done.
They have done deals successfully in various local elections
> @JonWC said: > Seems a lot of slightly optimistic thinking about what this means. The evidence I've read on here suggests that turnout was down disproportionately amongst leavers. Hardly surprising given they already voted to stop these election from taking place and were assured that would be acted on. > > What would be interesting is to scale the votes in each area up to the referendum turnout levels (obviously would still be lower in Brexity areas but not disproportionately). Anyone got the spreadsheet wherewithal to do that?
Paradoxically, the lower turnout in working class Leave seats would favour the Leave side under FPTP.
> Which seats do you forecast Lab gaining in the next GE?
>
> Lab in 5th place in Charnwood so unlikely to be gaining Loughborough. 5th in NW Leics too. 4th in N Warks, 5th in South Warks. 3rd even in Derby, home of Skeletor, behind the LDs.
>
>
>
> You may have noticed that was in the Euro elections rather than a General election, as well as being about different things they tend to have a slightly different turnout...
>
> I didn't forecast Labour gaining particular seats at the last election and yet we managed it regardless.
I think you are probably right, we are going to have to have major seat losses for Labour at the next GE to put an end to Corbynism. Shouldn't have long to wait.
It is becoming easier for anti-No Deal Tory voters to find someone to vote for, without letting Corbyn into number 10.
So no deal here we come, killing the potential culture war, well the benefits for the right anyway , Labour membership elects a left wing replacement for Corbyn who has a great chance at a landslide at the next (after the one Corbyn loses) election.
I'm quite a young person, that sucks in the short term but in the medium to longer term that could kill the Tories and benefit a left wing Labour party.
Obviously that isn't necessarily the route, but if Labour are losing the next election badly as you claim then I can't see how it isn't the Tories and Brexit Party cleaning up.
To Mr Stodge i just wanted to apologise because i got Enfield wrong although the lib dems went from nothing to a lot.. Everything else that u said was just spin from me was in fact correct. Have a great day.
> @IanB2 said: > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968 > > > > > > I would be very lary either brexiteers or remainers trying to add up tallies to justify their position. > > > > Euro election had 51% turnout, EU referendum had 80%+ turnout, that's a fact. I would bet that leavers would be less likely to vote in the euro election than remainers, indeed wasn't turnout in leave areas turbout was the same while remain areas went up, albeit slightly. > > Yes, but that’s the most credible turnout pattern for a referendum, as well. We have already had a fair few Brexit types threatening to boycott it, or saying they’ll never vote again, and it hasn’t been called yet.
That's why I'd don't think a 2nd referendum would be fair. The 1st one was done in good faith that the result mattered, that our votes mattered. A 2nd one would be in effect saying you voted wrong, vote again - even if its just perceived that way. 17.4 million people would be furious, some will become disillusioned and not vote at all - that's what the remain camp is counting on and why they are so keen to have a 2nd referendum, even if it's done in bad faith with 17.4 million voters.
Remainers from who I have talked to want to go back to the future. They want to go back to a time before the referendum and for things to go back to "normal" to when they ruled the roost and won everything and be in their cosy little bubble where the rest of us vote blue or red every 4/5 years and then go away and let them run things.
Am I correct in thinking that not only have the Tories not come top in any counting area, they have nearly no second places either?
South Ayrshire seems to be the only one. @malcolmg
Nearly all the Tories live in South Ayrshire, lots of mansions around Prestwick , Troon , Ayr. PS: Dvaidson's pathetic stance of single issue , No referendum on Independence is doing for them, they need to change the record and get some policies, Ruthie's flim flam is painfully obvious and even her media pals cannot disguise her mediocrity.
> > Which seats do you forecast Lab gaining in the next GE?
> >
> > Lab in 5th place in Charnwood so unlikely to be gaining Loughborough. 5th in NW Leics too. 4th in N Warks, 5th in South Warks. 3rd even in Derby, home of Skeletor, behind the LDs.
> >
> >
> >
> > You may have noticed that was in the Euro elections rather than a General election, as well as being about different things they tend to have a slightly different turnout...
> >
> > I didn't forecast Labour gaining particular seats at the last election and yet we managed it regardless.
>
> They did it last time because they looked like the only alternative to Theresa and her Brexiteers. They've lost that USP for ever and frankly without that the party under Corbyn hasn't got a snowball in Hell's chance of forming a government.
It looks like Corbyn has lost the youth vote to the greens and it is not going back.
My 16 year old granddaughter is very much into green issues as are so many of our school children
Furthermore the Lib Dems have shown they are a grounded centre left party clear of marxist dogma and anti semitism. Outside of London and the south labour are facing permanent wipe out in Scotland, disaster in Wales and irrelevance in the north
Time for labour to face the fact Magic Grandpa has lost his magic (if he had any) and need to either split or rid themselves of his malign nature.
The conservatives have a mountain to climb and of course the result does indicate continuing deadlock over Europe
The lib dems decided to be a one issue party to resurrect themselves and it has worked.
> @Sean_F said: > > @JackW said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > "I wonder if the Greens and Lib Dems will consider a pact at the next General Election with the Greens having an unencumbered run at > > > > Bristol West > > Bristol North West > > Norwich South > > Sheffield Central > > > > In return for the Lib Dems having a Green free tilt at other targets ?" > > > > ............................................................................. > > > > I'd go much further. An "Alliance" similar to the Lib/SDP electoral agreement of 83/87 between LibDem/CHUK/Green would be a very significant force. > > > > The Peterborough by-election is a missed opportunity but the likely Brecon and Radnor by-election is a substantial opportunity. > > > > More long term the London mayoralty next May looks interesting. With the preferential voting system both LibDem and Greens can run candidates and agree a second preference alliance. With the yellow peril topping the Euro London poll a certain Mr Khan might not be quite so comfy in City Hall today. > > > > > Being anti-Brexit could keep them together for the time being, but I think the anti-growth/authoritarian Green agenda would drive them apart, longer term. >
Green members tend to be fairly hardline dark greens, but the voters less so.
If the Greens tread the same path as the German Greens, they may well be able to pick up the youth and university age group, from Labour. LDs are fairly Green already, so a Green/Yellow alliance is very possible.
> I would be very lary either brexiteers or remainers trying to add up tallies to justify their position.
>
>
>
> Euro election had 51% turnout, EU referendum had 80%+ turnout, that's a fact. I would bet that leavers would be less likely to vote in the euro election than remainers, indeed wasn't turnout in leave areas turbout was the same while remain areas went up, albeit slightly.
>
> Yes, but that’s the most credible turnout pattern for a referendum, as well. We have already had a fair few Brexit types threatening to boycott it, or saying they’ll never vote again, and it hasn’t been called yet.
That's why I'd don't think a 2nd referendum would be fair. The 1st one was done in good faith that the result mattered, that our votes mattered. A 2nd one would be in effect saying you voted wrong, vote again - even if its just perceived that way. 17.4 million people would be furious, some will become disillusioned and not vote at all - that's what the remain camp is counting on and why they are so keen to have a 2nd referendum, even if it's done in bad faith with 17.4 million voters.
Remainers from who I have talked to want to go back to the future. They want to go back to a time before the referendum and for things to go back to "normal" to when they ruled the roost and won everything and be in their cosy little bubble where the rest of us vote blue or red every 4/5 years and then go away and let them run things.
And given the behaviour of the Corbyn and the ERG over the past 3 years, can you blame them?
Labour's tribal loyalties are strong in the North but they've been strained to the limit. Caroline Flint is talking sense; they have a choice between being the old working class party or the new middle class, predominantly metropolitan party - a sort of red, liberal grouping.
I don't like Emily, she comes over a horribly, patronising know-it-all. She may be a lovely woman in private, but on TV last night, she was shouting over the other two women on the panel. Emily-plaining, in fact.
Also not too sure the Greens and LibDems really have that much in common - where they do it is more a case of convergent evolution rather than a single underlying philosophy.
The Greens are hard left and favour pretty illiberal solutions (much more like Corbyn really), and the LibDems now at least are more urban(e) champagne socialists in outlook.
> @JonWC said: > Also not too sure the Greens and LibDems really have that much in common - where they do it is more a case of convergent evolution rather than a single underlying philosophy. > > The Greens are hard left and favour pretty illiberal solutions (much more like Corbyn really), and the LibDems now at least are more urban(e) champagne socialists in outlook.
> @TheJezziah said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > Which seats do you forecast Lab gaining in the next GE? > > > > > > Lab in 5th place in Charnwood so unlikely to be gaining Loughborough. 5th in NW Leics too. 4th in N Warks, 5th in South Warks. 3rd even in Derby, home of Skeletor, behind the LDs. > > > > > > > > > > > > You may have noticed that was in the Euro elections rather than a General election, as well as being about different things they tend to have a slightly different turnout... > > > > > > I didn't forecast Labour gaining particular seats at the last election and yet we managed it regardless. > > > > I think you are probably right, we are going to have to have major seat losses for Labour at the next GE to put an end to Corbynism. Shouldn't have long to wait. > > > > It is becoming easier for anti-No Deal Tory voters to find someone to vote for, without letting Corbyn into number 10. > > So no deal here we come, killing the potential culture war, well the benefits for the right anyway , Labour membership elects a left wing replacement for Corbyn who has a great chance at a landslide at the next (after the one Corbyn loses) election. > > I'm quite a young person, that sucks in the short term but in the medium to longer term that could kill the Tories and benefit a left wing Labour party. > > Obviously that isn't necessarily the route, but if Labour are losing the next election badly as you claim then I can't see how it isn't the Tories and Brexit Party cleaning up.
I think there is likely to be around 100 SNP/LD/PC/Green MPs after the next GE, perhaps 150.
The next Parliament is going to be very well hung.
> > Which seats do you forecast Lab gaining in the next GE?
> >
> > Lab in 5th place in Charnwood so unlikely to be gaining Loughborough. 5th in NW Leics too. 4th in N Warks, 5th in South Warks. 3rd even in Derby, home of Skeletor, behind the LDs.
> >
> >
> >
> > You may have noticed that was in the Euro elections rather than a General election, as well as being about different things they tend to have a slightly different turnout...
> >
> > I didn't forecast Labour gaining particular seats at the last election and yet we managed it regardless.
>
> They did it last time because they looked like the only alternative to Theresa and her Brexiteers. They've lost that USP for ever and frankly without that the party under Corbyn hasn't got a snowball in Hell's chance of forming a government.
It looks like Corbyn has lost the youth vote to the greens and it is not going back.
My 16 year old granddaughter is very much into green issues as are so many of our school children
Furthermore the Lib Dems have shown they are a grounded centre left party clear of marxist dogma and anti semitism. Outside of London and the south labour are facing permanent wipe out in Scotland, disaster in Wales and irrelevance in the north
Time for labour to face the fact Magic Grandpa has lost his magic (if he had any) and need to either split or rid themselves of his malign nature.
The conservatives have a mountain to climb and of course the result does indicate continuing deadlock over Europe
The lib dems decided to be a one issue party to resurrect themselves and it has worked.
Yet to be proven , doing well in one protest vote does not a summer make. We will see when there is a real election that counts for anything.
> @malcolmg said: > Am I correct in thinking that not only have the Tories not come top in any counting area, they have nearly no second places either? > > > > South Ayrshire seems to be the only one. @malcolmg > > Nearly all the Tories live in South Ayrshire, lots of mansions around Prestwick , Troon , Ayr. > PS: Dvaidson's pathetic stance of single issue , No referendum on Independence is doing for them, they need to change the record and get some policies, Ruthie's flim flam is painfully obvious and even her media pals cannot disguise her mediocrity.
That's a load of hot air Malcy and you know it. Ruth is a very impressive politician
> @OldKingCole said: > > @Garza said: > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968 > > > > I would be very lary either brexiteers or remainers trying to add up tallies to justify their position. > > > > Euro election had 51% turnout, EU referendum had 80%+ turnout, that's a fact. I would bet that leavers would be less likely to vote in the euro election than remainers, indeed wasn't turnout in leave areas turbout was the same while remain areas went up, albeit slightly. > > > > > > The only conclusion to be drawn is that the country is split down the middle. I very much doubt if it can be happily re-united any time soon.
Yeah the voters have gone to the extremes for sure. There is leeway though, I myself am I tory voter who voter brexit party this time around and I am not wedded to a wto brexit. I wouldn't mind a deal, I am even prepared to accept one I don't particularly like, but May's deal was just awful, totally awful, totally unacceptable.. Nor would custom union be acceptable either.
They say the best deals are the ones where both parties are a bit disgruntled about it, the overjoy on mays deal in the EU could barely be contained - that told the story right there.
And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
> @IanB2 said: > > @SquareRoot said: > > Well.. the ;pollsters largely got it wrong did they, surprise surprise. > > > > I have just been looking up the SE results, and I know I voted LD, but I have no idea who the LD candidate I voted for was, nor in fact any of the candidates, I just saw the LD logo and slapped my X there > > Your LD MEPs: > > Catherine Bearder > > Elected as MEP for South East England in 2009. She was born in Hertfordshire and worked in the antique trade, as a zoological research assistant in Africa and latterly after children, in the voluntary sector with the Citizens Advice Bureau, Victim Support and National Federation of Women’s Institutes. She was a councillor on Cherwell District and Oxfordshire County Councils and parliamentary candidate for Banbury in 1997 and Henley in 2001. > She is President of the Green Liberal Democrats and has a special interest in biodiversity protection and fighting human trafficking. > > Antony Hook > > Antony moved to Kent during his childhood as his father sought new work during the economically difficult times of the 1980s. Both his parents worked in local public services and are now retired. He has one brother who does statistical work for an organisation that promotes excellence in education. After attending a local grammar school, Antony studied history at University College London, followed by law at City University and the Inns of Court School of Law. He completed his training at leading chambers (a group of barristers) in the capital. He uses the skills he has developed as an advocate and lawyer to help him stand up for Faversham as a councillor. > > Judith Bunting > > Before entering politics, Judith was a science journalist and TV producer at the BBC for more than 20 years, directing films on green energy for Tomorrow’s World and quantum physics for Horizon and Discovery. More recently, Judith was co-creator of Magic Hands, the CBeebies television series which is presented in British Sign Language. Judith studied Natural Sciences at Cambridge University. In 2017, she was selected by the Royal Society of Chemistry to be one of their 175 Faces of Chemistry. Judith has previously fought Newbury for the Liberal Democrats. > > >
Judith must be a bit bewildered this morning to find herself an MEP!
> Am I correct in thinking that not only have the Tories not come top in any counting area, they have nearly no second places either?
>
>
>
> South Ayrshire seems to be the only one. @malcolmg
>
> Nearly all the Tories live in South Ayrshire, lots of mansions around Prestwick , Troon , Ayr.
> PS: Dvaidson's pathetic stance of single issue , No referendum on Independence is doing for them, they need to change the record and get some policies, Ruthie's flim flam is painfully obvious and even her media pals cannot disguise her mediocrity.
That's a load of hot air Malcy and you know it. Ruth is a very impressive politician
She is a useless windbag, no principles and follows the focus groups. She would sell her granny and has lied so often she even forgets herself when answering. A one trick unionist "No Surrender" chancer. PS: you can trust a thief but you can never trust a LIAR.
> @tlg86 said: > I reckon Green/Lib Dem voters on PB are more likely to be amenable to an electoral pact than either the parties themselves or their non-PB voters.
But in return, will the Brexit Party stand aside for No Deal Conservative candidates?
> @JonWC said: > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
I think there is likely to be around 100 SNP/LD/PC/Green MPs after the next GE, perhaps 150.
The next Parliament is going to be very well hung.
Right... but the Labour party gaining seats is unrealistic?
If you look at actual realistic target seats (maybe within 5k?) but let's say the SNP get their 2015 total.
Without checking I am not sure that gets you to 100. that is about 56 for the SNP. 1 for the Greens. 4 for Plaid. Have the Lib Dems got 39 targets within 5k?
So frustrating seeing people with obvious agendas explaining how remain/leave won.
It is blindingly obvious who the remain and leave parties are.
No matter what side you are on you can have no actual idea how Tory/Lab Vote splits. You can have a view, but you just don't know.
As has been pointed out the turnout is very different to the referendum and we can have no idea how those who didn't vote would vote. Again you can have an educated view, but you just don't know.
I'd go much further. An "Alliance" similar to the Lib/SDP electoral agreement of 83/87 between LibDem/CHUK/Green would be a very significant force.
The Peterborough by-election is a missed opportunity but the likely Brecon and Radnor by-election is a substantial opportunity.
More long term the London mayoralty next May looks interesting. With the preferential voting system both LibDem and Greens can run candidates and agree a second preference alliance. With the yellow peril topping the Euro London poll a certain Mr Khan might not be quite so comfy in City Hall today.
I made that point yesterday and was dismissed by quite a few on here. It may be that Khan has enough personal support over party to see him through
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @JonWC said: > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky? > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
Yep but at least it will be Remain Vs No Deal rather than Remain vs everyone's imagined unicorn...
Mr. WC, easy. If a second referendum occurs it must be legislated for, and MPs are mostly pro-EU. That doesn't mean 'no deal' won't be an option, just that such an absence is a credible possibility.
> @TheJezziah said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > Which seats do you forecast Lab gaining in the next GE? > > > > > > Lab in 5th place in Charnwood so unlikely to be gaining Loughborough. 5th in NW Leics too. 4th in N Warks, 5th in South Warks. 3rd even in Derby, home of Skeletor, behind the LDs. > > > > > > > > > > > > You may have noticed that was in the Euro elections rather than a General election, as well as being about different things they tend to have a slightly different turnout... > > > > > > I didn't forecast Labour gaining particular seats at the last election and yet we managed it regardless. > > > > They did it last time because they looked like the only alternative to Theresa and her Brexiteers. They've lost that USP for ever and frankly without that the party under Corbyn hasn't got a snowball in Hell's chance of forming a government. > > Labour are the underdogs then, good. Bring on Farage and Boris...
You'd first of all have to explain to your voters what if anything is the difference between Farage Boris and Labour because I for one can't see any
> @eek said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @JonWC said: > > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky? > > > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward > > Yep but at least it will be Remain Vs No Deal rather than Remain vs everyone's imagined unicorn...
No Dealers have plenty of unicorns!
I note that North Lincs turkeys voted for an early Christmas again.
> @JonWC said: > Also not too sure the Greens and LibDems really have that much in common - where they do it is more a case of convergent evolution rather than a single underlying philosophy. > > The Greens are hard left and favour pretty illiberal solutions (much more like Corbyn really), and the LibDems now at least are more urban(e) champagne socialists in outlook.
Corbyn is done. The only question is, is he done like May was done two years ago, clinging on and inflicting further damage? Or is he done like May was done after the locals, as in he's gone next month?
Despite being anti-Emily, she got one thing right last night. The fence sitting tactic (Janus rather than Jezza) isn't going anywhere. They have to decide whether to go full-fat green/LD metropolitan or stay traditional. The split is coming.
Glad to see Jezziah on form this morning rightly celebrating Labour's Sensational Victory last night. Only the Power of Corbyn ensured that Labour swept the board.
Le Pen 23.31% Macron 22.41% Greens 13.47% Republicains 8.48% France Insoumise 6.31% Socialisys 6.19%
French Interior Ministry gives the following seats allocation...
Le Pen 22 (to become 23 after Brexit) Macron 21 (to become 23 after Brexit) Greens 12 (to bcome 13 after Brexit) Republicains 8 France Insoumise 6 Socialists 5 (to become 6 after Brexit)
Glad to see Jezziah on form this morning rightly celebrating Labour's Sensational Victory last night. Only the Power of Corbyn ensured that Labour swept the board.
So Nigel still in favour of PR, then. I guess if he were to clean up in a FPTP GE he could change the system, but still get five years to run the country.
Who was the LibDem on R4 at midnight? Suggest that he is never let near the media again
Was very aggressively accusing the BBC of misreporting the elections - talking about BXP’s success when they “should” have been reporting that if you added LD and Greens together it was a Remain triumph
After about three attacks the BBC interviewer laid into him and then switched away
(I’m sure he was just following the agreed line but he handled it really really badly)
> @ah009 said: > Corbyn is done. The only question is, is he done like May was done two years ago, clinging on and inflicting further damage? Or is he done like May was done after the locals, as in he's gone next month?
Even if they do get rid of corbyn, the political nature of the Labour membership suggests to me that a corbyn like politician would be elected, I can't see a central candidate winning with momentum movement gnashing at their heels.
Whilst we have to be mindful not to directly transfer the Euro result to a general election it has to be said that the LibDems look poised to give arch Conservative brexiteer Anne Main in St. Albans constituency a most uncomfortable time.
How I stop the yellow peril invading rural Harpenden is a tricky one !!
St Albans and District.
The Conservatives trailed the Green Party in fourth place with Labour in fifth, a few hundred votes ahead of Change UK.
The results are as follows:
Change UK - The Independent Group 2,235 Conservative and Unionist Party 4,583 English Democrats 171 Green Party 6,010 Labour Party 2,752 Liberal Democrats 22,232 The Brexit Party 10,590 UK Independence Party (UKIP) 717 Csordas, Attila 68
The most interesting thing that will come out of Scotland in the next month or two is the policy taken by Ruth Davidson. The Scottish tories kept their MEP and got more vote share than English tories but don’t expect her to be happy with this.
A well managed brexit that gets the fish back but keeps us in a customs union with freedom of movement is the objective. A no deal Brexit that triggers an independence referendum the worst outcome.
The Australian Labor Party has elected leftwinger Anthony Albanese unopposed to succeed Bill Shorten as Labor leader following its recent election defeat
> @SquareRoot said: > > @malcolmg said: > > Am I correct in thinking that not only have the Tories not come top in any counting area, they have nearly no second places either? > > > > > > > > South Ayrshire seems to be the only one. @malcolmg > > > > Nearly all the Tories live in South Ayrshire, lots of mansions around Prestwick , Troon , Ayr. > > PS: Dvaidson's pathetic stance of single issue , No referendum on Independence is doing for them, they need to change the record and get some policies, Ruthie's flim flam is painfully obvious and even her media pals cannot disguise her mediocrity. > > That's a load of hot air Malcy and you know it. Ruth is a very impressive politician
She's impressive in terms of getting relatively uncritical attention, which is a much a function of the weird Scottish media landscape. Policy-wise she's all over the place, tracking the Conservatives' drift, abandoning things she's previously been adamant about as easily as Cameron forgetting his children in the pub.
She can't break the STory ceiling (the SNP vote is strong, but if it collapsed would not break Conservative) and if she were to enter Westminster, she'd lose the media armbands she currently enjoys.
I think she's already on the gentle downhill slope of her career, with 2016-2017 being the peak.
> @hamiltonace said: > The most interesting thing that will come out of Scotland in the next month or two is the policy taken by Ruth Davidson. The Scottish tories kept their MEP and got more vote share than English tories but don’t expect her to be happy with this. > > A well managed brexit that gets the fish back but keeps us in a customs union with freedom of movement is the objective. A no deal Brexit that triggers an independence referendum the worst outcome. > > Not sure that follows.
The Brexit Party beat the Scottish Tories in Scotland, the SNP did no better than 2017
> @RochdalePioneers said: > Glad to see Jezziah on form this morning rightly celebrating Labour's Sensational Victory last night. Only the Power of Corbyn ensured that Labour swept the board. > > Today Brussels, tomorrow Moscow!
What is truly fascinating is seeing the three way split of parties. We have Leave parties, Remain parties, and then we have ConLab. The country is divided between Leave and Remain, and if you try and do both you get fucked.
We know what the Tories are going to do - they are going to go hard leave and try to out-compete Farage for the angry vote. In doimg so they will lose a proportion of their party/voters who find tbis reprehensible. The Tory party of old is dead.
We don't know what Labour are going to do. We cannot try and punt for the same angry vote as BXP/Boris. That vote doesn't trust us. We definitely can't sit on the fence any longer. Which only leaves pivoting to remain and forging a progressive alliance with LD/Green/CHUMPS.
Witness the death and rebirth of the LibDems. They died with Vince Cable one of the chief architects of their death. They were reborn with Vince Cable the chief architects of their resurrection. How? Because the electorate who Absolutely Pledged never to vote for them again on 2015 is voting for them again in 2019 having found the LDs in the fight place as political tides shift. Labour could do the same.
The Tories will now fracture. Their centre right cannot accept what they logically have to do. Just as the majority of the Labour Party cannot stomach Corbyns bullshit over Europe. It's fine for cancer supporters like Bastani and Jezziah to attack the body for the temerity of denouncing cancer, but we must do so, or cancer wins as the body dies.
> @JackW said: > Whilst we have to be mindful not to directly transfer the Euro result to a general election it has to be said that the LibDems look poised to give arch Conservative brexiteer Anne Main in St. Albans constituency a most uncomfortable time. > > How I stop the yellow peril invading rural Harpenden is a tricky one !! > > St Albans and District. > > The Conservatives trailed the Green Party in fourth place with Labour in fifth, a few hundred votes ahead of Change UK. > > The results are as follows: > > Change UK - The Independent Group 2,235 > Conservative and Unionist Party 4,583 > English Democrats 171 > Green Party 6,010 > Labour Party 2,752 > Liberal Democrats 22,232 > The Brexit Party 10,590 > UK Independence Party (UKIP) 717 > Csordas, Attila 68
Not just St Albans, but throughtout the Home Counties there were strong LD performances.
Boris Johnson says the Tories are on 'a final warning' if they do not deliver Brexit and Jeremy Hunt says they face 'an existential crisis' as the party saw its lowest national share of the vote since pre 1832 last night
> @YBarddCwsc said: > It is time to say it. > > I hate to puncture the noisy optimism of the pb.com LibDems. But ... > > No-one votes for the LibDems. The LibDem votes are against the other parties. > > Voting LibDem is a just therapy for Anger Management.
Apply the same thing to Brexit Party and boom! you just dismissed half the voters in the country.
The Australian Labor Party has elected leftwinger Anthony Albanese unopposed to succeed Bill Shorten as Labor leader following its recent election defeat
> @RochdalePioneers said: > What is truly fascinating is seeing the three way split of parties. We have Leave parties, Remain parties, and then we have ConLab. The country is divided between Leave and Remain, and if you try and do both you get fucked. > > We know what the Tories are going to do - they are going to go hard leave and try to out-compete Farage for the angry vote. In doimg so they will lose a proportion of their party/voters who find tbis reprehensible. The Tory party of old is dead. > > We don't know what Labour are going to do. We cannot try and punt for the same angry vote as BXP/Boris. That vote doesn't trust us. We definitely can't sit on the fence any longer. Which only leaves pivoting to remain and forging a progressive alliance with LD/Green/CHUMPS. > > Witness the death and rebirth of the LibDems. They died with Vince Cable one of the chief architects of their death. They were reborn with Vince Cable the chief architects of their resurrection. How? Because the electorate who Absolutely Pledged never to vote for them again on 2015 is voting for them again in 2019 having found the LDs in the fight place as political tides shift. Labour could do the same. > > The Tories will now fracture. Their centre right cannot accept what they logically have to do. Just as the majority of the Labour Party cannot stomach Corbyns bullshit over Europe. It's fine for cancer supporters like Bastani and Jezziah to attack the body for the temerity of denouncing cancer, but we must do so, or cancer wins as the body dies. > > Fuck Corbyn. It's on.
What is interesting was how last night we moved to North American or French politics in the UK with a populist, socially conservative, largely rural and market town right-wing party and a liberal largely metropolitan party comprising the top 2.
If the Tories do not deliver Brexit and Labour do not openly oppose Brexit that is where we could be heading
Privately I suspect Farage is feeling slightly disappointed in these results. 30% was probably the bottom end of his expectations. It's certainly a lot less than 52%.
> @Scott_P said: > But in return, will the Brexit Party stand aside for No Deal Conservative candidates? > > Not what they are saying this morning
Well give them a morning to enjoy their triumph, before reality sets in - they were the picket line to which striking Tories went, to warm their hands on the flaming Brexit brazier on a very chill night for them.
Would it not be fair to say that many of the tories who stayed loyal do not want a straight leave but a negotiated leave. This was the message in Scotland where the tories got more votes than England.
Chasing the brexit party votes threatens to destroy the Tory party and potentially the country. It is a very tricky situation requiring a good leader.
You seem to have whole different elections going on in Scotland...
I get the impression in England and Wales it was mainly very loyal Tory voters left, maybe some element of deal supporters (as opposed to no deal) but I think the Tories would have to actively try to get rid of them, some might argue they already have.
It was very loyal Tories left in Scotland too. Cons have polled at 16% from 1992 till 2016. That's the absolute baseline under which they will not fall in Scotland.
Well give them a morning to enjoy their triumph, before reality sets in - they were the picket line to which striking Tories went, to warm their hands on the flaming Brexit brazier on a very chill night for them.
You're not suggesting they go back on their word, like regular politicians?!?
Comments
> Is Farage still in favour of PR? He really shouldn't be.
He'll change his mind on that if we haven't left the EU come 2022 !
> Two clear findings from the vote. 1. There is a CLEAR majority for Remain however you look at the results 2. Corbyn has to go. He has shown himself unfit to be leader and with him in charge Labour have zero chance of forming a government.
>
> I'm not sure I would go so far as to say this shows a clear majority for Remain. What it does definitely show is (a) Remainers are more motivated at this moment and (b) their vote is being fragmented among several parties.
>
> The obvious lesson the Tories will draw is that if they get us out, they will rally a big group of support behind them - probably enough to win an election given said fragmentation.
>
> And that has to be good news - unfortunately - for leading Brexiteer candidates Gove and Johnson.
Perhaps not. Post No Deal Brexit, how does Boris hold onto those Brexit Party votes?
If indeed he can gain them in the first place to hold his own seat.
I realise as an English centrist that the Welsh Labour leader should be chosen on the basis that they don't like Corbyn and will produce good attacks on him but you have to respect that Welsh Labour members took a rather different view.
The NEC slate was much maligned because it was left wing and up against Progress and Labour First. There is pretty much no good reason to argue they would make much difference outside of Labour itself, if for example you stuck Eddie Izzard on the NEC for one of the Momentum slate...
No difference.
Plaid could do well in the WA but I referenced a GE imparticular. There isn't really much room for them to hugely improve and in a GB election they can easily get drowned out and lost.
"I wonder if the Greens and Lib Dems will consider a pact at the next General Election with the Greens having an unencumbered run at
Bristol West
Bristol North West
Norwich South
Sheffield Central
In return for the Lib Dems having a Green free tilt at other targets ?"
.............................................................................
I'd go much further. An "Alliance" similar to the Lib/SDP electoral agreement of 83/87 between LibDem/CHUK/Green would be a very significant force.
The Peterborough by-election is a missed opportunity but the likely Brecon and Radnor by-election is a substantial opportunity.
More long term the London mayoralty next May looks interesting. With the preferential voting system both LibDem and Greens can run candidates and agree a second preference alliance. With the yellow peril topping the Euro London poll a certain Mr Khan might not be quite so comfy in City Hall today.
> Trouble for Labour is any pivot towards Remain would be too late. LDs/ Greens have occupied that space. They'll be forced down the road to oblivion.
Just whip an abstention on the MV and passage of the bill ?
> Trouble for Labour is any pivot towards Remain would be too late. LDs/ Greens have occupied that space. They'll be forced down the road to oblivion.
Yes, I think they have missed the boat.
A new Leader might be able to get away with such a pivot, but not Corbyn.
> @Pulpstar said:
>
> "I wonder if the Greens and Lib Dems will consider a pact at the next General Election with the Greens having an unencumbered run at
>
> Bristol West
> Bristol North West
> Norwich South
> Sheffield Central
>
> In return for the Lib Dems having a Green free tilt at other targets ?"
>
> .............................................................................
>
> I'd go much further. An "Alliance" similar to the Lib/SDP electoral agreement of 83/87 between LibDem/CHUK/Green would be a very significant force.
>
> The Peterborough by-election is a missed opportunity but the likely Brecon and Radnor by-election is a substantial opportunity.
>
> More long term the London mayoralty next May looks interesting. With the preferential voting system both LibDem and Greens can run candidates and agree a second preference alliance. With the yellow peril topping the Euro London poll a certain Mr Khan might not be quite so comfy in City Hall today.
>
>
Being anti-Brexit could keep them together for the time being, but I think the anti-growth/authoritarian Green agenda would drive them apart, longer term.
> > @TheJezziah said:
> > Which seats do you forecast Lab gaining in the next GE?
> >
> > Lab in 5th place in Charnwood so unlikely to be gaining Loughborough. 5th in NW Leics too. 4th in N Warks, 5th in South Warks. 3rd even in Derby, home of Skeletor, behind the LDs.
> >
> >
> >
> > You may have noticed that was in the Euro elections rather than a General election, as well as being about different things they tend to have a slightly different turnout...
> >
> > I didn't forecast Labour gaining particular seats at the last election and yet we managed it regardless.
>
> They did it last time because they looked like the only alternative to Theresa and her Brexiteers. They've lost that USP for ever and frankly without that the party under Corbyn hasn't got a snowball in Hell's chance of forming a government.
It looks like Corbyn has lost the youth vote to the greens and it is not going back.
My 16 year old granddaughter is very much into green issues as are so many of our school children
Furthermore the Lib Dems have shown they are a grounded centre left party clear of marxist dogma and anti semitism. Outside of London and the south labour are facing permanent wipe out in Scotland, disaster in Wales and irrelevance in the north
Time for labour to face the fact Magic Grandpa has lost his magic (if he had any) and need to either split or rid themselves of his malign nature.
The conservatives have a mountain to climb and of course the result does indicate continuing deadlock over Europe
> > @TheJezziah said:
> > Which seats do you forecast Lab gaining in the next GE?
> >
> > Lab in 5th place in Charnwood so unlikely to be gaining Loughborough. 5th in NW Leics too. 4th in N Warks, 5th in South Warks. 3rd even in Derby, home of Skeletor, behind the LDs.
> >
> >
> >
> > You may have noticed that was in the Euro elections rather than a General election, as well as being about different things they tend to have a slightly different turnout...
> >
> > I didn't forecast Labour gaining particular seats at the last election and yet we managed it regardless.
>
> I think you are probably right, we are going to have to have major seat losses for Labour at the next GE to put an end to Corbynism. Shouldn't have long to wait.
>
> It is becoming easier for anti-No Deal Tory voters to find someone to vote for, without letting Corbyn into number 10.
That is an extremely astute observation. Corbyn has single handedly been holding the Tory party together. No more. The threat has been shown to be a chimera.
> @Pulpstar said:
>
> "I wonder if the Greens and Lib Dems will consider a pact at the next General Election with the Greens having an unencumbered run at
>
> Bristol West
> Bristol North West
> Norwich South
> Sheffield Central
>
> In return for the Lib Dems having a Green free tilt at other targets ?"
>
> .............................................................................
>
> I'd go much further. An "Alliance" similar to the Lib/SDP electoral agreement of 83/87 between LibDem/CHUK/Green would be a very significant force.
>
> The Peterborough by-election is a missed opportunity but the likely Brecon and Radnor by-election is a substantial opportunity.
>
> More long term the London mayoralty next May looks interesting. With the preferential voting system both LibDem and Greens can run candidates and agree a second preference alliance. With the yellow peril topping the Euro London poll a certain Mr Khan might not be quite so comfy in City Hall today.
>
>
Agree with @Pulpstar and @JackW. Is there anywhere else, other than Brighton obviously, where Greens have a good shout
What would be interesting is to scale the votes in each area up to the referendum turnout levels (obviously would still be lower in Brexity areas but not disproportionately). Anyone got the spreadsheet wherewithal to do that?
South Ayrshire seems to be the only one. @malcolmg
> I wonder if the Greens and Lib Dems will consider a pact at the next General Election with the Greens having an unencumbered run at
>
>
>
> Bristol West
>
> Bristol North West
>
> Norwich South
>
> Sheffield Central
>
>
>
> In return for the Lib Dems having a Green free tilt at other targets ?
>
> You wonder how much that would help them, though. My very strong impression is that the Greens and Liberal Democrats attract very different sorts of voters and if they were interested in switching, they already would have done.
They have done deals successfully in various local elections
> Seems a lot of slightly optimistic thinking about what this means. The evidence I've read on here suggests that turnout was down disproportionately amongst leavers. Hardly surprising given they already voted to stop these election from taking place and were assured that would be acted on.
>
> What would be interesting is to scale the votes in each area up to the referendum turnout levels (obviously would still be lower in Brexity areas but not disproportionately). Anyone got the spreadsheet wherewithal to do that?
Paradoxically, the lower turnout in working class Leave seats would favour the Leave side under FPTP.
I'm quite a young person, that sucks in the short term but in the medium to longer term that could kill the Tories and benefit a left wing Labour party.
Obviously that isn't necessarily the route, but if Labour are losing the next election badly as you claim then I can't see how it isn't the Tories and Brexit Party cleaning up.
Everything else that u said was just spin from me was in fact correct.
Have a great day.
> Just turned on the TV to see Nigel Fucking Farage.
>
> Surely they're not allowed to show anyone fucking before the watershed?
We had such high hopes when we were making plans for Nigel, but since the collapse of British Steel, it's all the work he could get...
> > @MikeSmithson said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968
>
>
>
>
>
> I would be very lary either brexiteers or remainers trying to add up tallies to justify their position.
>
>
>
> Euro election had 51% turnout, EU referendum had 80%+ turnout, that's a fact. I would bet that leavers would be less likely to vote in the euro election than remainers, indeed wasn't turnout in leave areas turbout was the same while remain areas went up, albeit slightly.
>
> Yes, but that’s the most credible turnout pattern for a referendum, as well. We have already had a fair few Brexit types threatening to boycott it, or saying they’ll never vote again, and it hasn’t been called yet.
That's why I'd don't think a 2nd referendum would be fair. The 1st one was done in good faith that the result mattered, that our votes mattered. A 2nd one would be in effect saying you voted wrong, vote again - even if its just perceived that way. 17.4 million people would be furious, some will become disillusioned and not vote at all - that's what the remain camp is counting on and why they are so keen to have a 2nd referendum, even if it's done in bad faith with 17.4 million voters.
Remainers from who I have talked to want to go back to the future. They want to go back to a time before the referendum and for things to go back to "normal" to when they ruled the roost and won everything and be in their cosy little bubble where the rest of us vote blue or red every 4/5 years and then go away and let them run things.
PS: Dvaidson's pathetic stance of single issue , No referendum on Independence is doing for them, they need to change the record and get some policies, Ruthie's flim flam is painfully obvious and even her media pals cannot disguise her mediocrity.
> > @JackW said:
> > @Pulpstar said:
> >
> > "I wonder if the Greens and Lib Dems will consider a pact at the next General Election with the Greens having an unencumbered run at
> >
> > Bristol West
> > Bristol North West
> > Norwich South
> > Sheffield Central
> >
> > In return for the Lib Dems having a Green free tilt at other targets ?"
> >
> > .............................................................................
> >
> > I'd go much further. An "Alliance" similar to the Lib/SDP electoral agreement of 83/87 between LibDem/CHUK/Green would be a very significant force.
> >
> > The Peterborough by-election is a missed opportunity but the likely Brecon and Radnor by-election is a substantial opportunity.
> >
> > More long term the London mayoralty next May looks interesting. With the preferential voting system both LibDem and Greens can run candidates and agree a second preference alliance. With the yellow peril topping the Euro London poll a certain Mr Khan might not be quite so comfy in City Hall today.
> >
> >
> Being anti-Brexit could keep them together for the time being, but I think the anti-growth/authoritarian Green agenda would drive them apart, longer term.
>
Green members tend to be fairly hardline dark greens, but the voters less so.
If the Greens tread the same path as the German Greens, they may well be able to pick up the youth and university age group, from Labour. LDs are fairly Green already, so a Green/Yellow alliance is very possible.
I don't like Emily, she comes over a horribly, patronising know-it-all. She may be a lovely woman in private, but on TV last night, she was shouting over the other two women on the panel. Emily-plaining, in fact.
The Greens are hard left and favour pretty illiberal solutions (much more like Corbyn really), and the LibDems now at least are more urban(e) champagne socialists in outlook.
> Also not too sure the Greens and LibDems really have that much in common - where they do it is more a case of convergent evolution rather than a single underlying philosophy.
>
> The Greens are hard left and favour pretty illiberal solutions (much more like Corbyn really), and the LibDems now at least are more urban(e) champagne socialists in outlook.
Lib Dems? Champagne socialists? Behave
> > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > Which seats do you forecast Lab gaining in the next GE?
>
> >
>
> > Lab in 5th place in Charnwood so unlikely to be gaining Loughborough. 5th in NW Leics too. 4th in N Warks, 5th in South Warks. 3rd even in Derby, home of Skeletor, behind the LDs.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > You may have noticed that was in the Euro elections rather than a General election, as well as being about different things they tend to have a slightly different turnout...
>
> >
>
> > I didn't forecast Labour gaining particular seats at the last election and yet we managed it regardless.
>
>
>
> I think you are probably right, we are going to have to have major seat losses for Labour at the next GE to put an end to Corbynism. Shouldn't have long to wait.
>
>
>
> It is becoming easier for anti-No Deal Tory voters to find someone to vote for, without letting Corbyn into number 10.
>
> So no deal here we come, killing the potential culture war, well the benefits for the right anyway , Labour membership elects a left wing replacement for Corbyn who has a great chance at a landslide at the next (after the one Corbyn loses) election.
>
> I'm quite a young person, that sucks in the short term but in the medium to longer term that could kill the Tories and benefit a left wing Labour party.
>
> Obviously that isn't necessarily the route, but if Labour are losing the next election badly as you claim then I can't see how it isn't the Tories and Brexit Party cleaning up.
I think there is likely to be around 100 SNP/LD/PC/Green MPs after the next GE, perhaps 150.
The next Parliament is going to be very well hung.
> Am I correct in thinking that not only have the Tories not come top in any counting area, they have nearly no second places either?
>
>
>
> South Ayrshire seems to be the only one. @malcolmg
>
> Nearly all the Tories live in South Ayrshire, lots of mansions around Prestwick , Troon , Ayr.
> PS: Dvaidson's pathetic stance of single issue , No referendum on Independence is doing for them, they need to change the record and get some policies, Ruthie's flim flam is painfully obvious and even her media pals cannot disguise her mediocrity.
That's a load of hot air Malcy and you know it. Ruth is a very impressive politician
> > @Garza said:
> > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968
> >
> > I would be very lary either brexiteers or remainers trying to add up tallies to justify their position.
> >
> > Euro election had 51% turnout, EU referendum had 80%+ turnout, that's a fact. I would bet that leavers would be less likely to vote in the euro election than remainers, indeed wasn't turnout in leave areas turbout was the same while remain areas went up, albeit slightly.
> >
> >
>
> The only conclusion to be drawn is that the country is split down the middle. I very much doubt if it can be happily re-united any time soon.
Yeah the voters have gone to the extremes for sure. There is leeway though, I myself am I tory voter who voter brexit party this time around and I am not wedded to a wto brexit. I wouldn't mind a deal, I am even prepared to accept one I don't particularly like, but May's deal was just awful, totally awful, totally unacceptable.. Nor would custom union be acceptable either.
They say the best deals are the ones where both parties are a bit disgruntled about it, the overjoy on mays deal in the EU could barely be contained - that told the story right there.
> > @SquareRoot said:
> > Well.. the ;pollsters largely got it wrong did they, surprise surprise.
> >
> > I have just been looking up the SE results, and I know I voted LD, but I have no idea who the LD candidate I voted for was, nor in fact any of the candidates, I just saw the LD logo and slapped my X there
>
> Your LD MEPs:
>
> Catherine Bearder
>
> Elected as MEP for South East England in 2009. She was born in Hertfordshire and worked in the antique trade, as a zoological research assistant in Africa and latterly after children, in the voluntary sector with the Citizens Advice Bureau, Victim Support and National Federation of Women’s Institutes. She was a councillor on Cherwell District and Oxfordshire County Councils and parliamentary candidate for Banbury in 1997 and Henley in 2001.
> She is President of the Green Liberal Democrats and has a special interest in biodiversity protection and fighting human trafficking.
>
> Antony Hook
>
> Antony moved to Kent during his childhood as his father sought new work during the economically difficult times of the 1980s. Both his parents worked in local public services and are now retired. He has one brother who does statistical work for an organisation that promotes excellence in education. After attending a local grammar school, Antony studied history at University College London, followed by law at City University and the Inns of Court School of Law. He completed his training at leading chambers (a group of barristers) in the capital. He uses the skills he has developed as an advocate and lawyer to help him stand up for Faversham as a councillor.
>
> Judith Bunting
>
> Before entering politics, Judith was a science journalist and TV producer at the BBC for more than 20 years, directing films on green energy for Tomorrow’s World and quantum physics for Horizon and Discovery. More recently, Judith was co-creator of Magic Hands, the CBeebies television series which is presented in British Sign Language. Judith studied Natural Sciences at Cambridge University. In 2017, she was selected by the Royal Society of Chemistry to be one of their 175 Faces of Chemistry. Judith has previously fought Newbury for the Liberal Democrats.
>
>
>
Judith must be a bit bewildered this morning to find herself an MEP!
PS: you can trust a thief but you can never trust a LIAR.
> I reckon Green/Lib Dem voters on PB are more likely to be amenable to an electoral pact than either the parties themselves or their non-PB voters.
But in return, will the Brexit Party stand aside for No Deal Conservative candidates?
> And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
If you look at actual realistic target seats (maybe within 5k?) but let's say the SNP get their 2015 total.
Without checking I am not sure that gets you to 100. that is about 56 for the SNP. 1 for the Greens. 4 for Plaid. Have the Lib Dems got 39 targets within 5k?
It is blindingly obvious who the remain and leave parties are.
No matter what side you are on you can have no actual idea how Tory/Lab Vote splits. You can have a view, but you just don't know.
As has been pointed out the turnout is very different to the referendum and we can have no idea how those who didn't vote would vote. Again you can have an educated view, but you just don't know.
There is only one way of knowing!
> Here's Richard Burgon on R4 with all the answers for Labour....
Defect to the Dems?
Greens ran SLAB fairly close in Glasgow.
> > @JonWC said:
> > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
>
> Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
Yep but at least it will be Remain Vs No Deal rather than Remain vs everyone's imagined unicorn...
"I am going to be an insufferably smug bastard today."
.................................................................................
No change there then ....
Mr. WC, easy. If a second referendum occurs it must be legislated for, and MPs are mostly pro-EU. That doesn't mean 'no deal' won't be an option, just that such an absence is a credible possibility.
> > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > Which seats do you forecast Lab gaining in the next GE?
>
> >
>
> > Lab in 5th place in Charnwood so unlikely to be gaining Loughborough. 5th in NW Leics too. 4th in N Warks, 5th in South Warks. 3rd even in Derby, home of Skeletor, behind the LDs.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > You may have noticed that was in the Euro elections rather than a General election, as well as being about different things they tend to have a slightly different turnout...
>
> >
>
> > I didn't forecast Labour gaining particular seats at the last election and yet we managed it regardless.
>
>
>
> They did it last time because they looked like the only alternative to Theresa and her Brexiteers. They've lost that USP for ever and frankly without that the party under Corbyn hasn't got a snowball in Hell's chance of forming a government.
>
> Labour are the underdogs then, good. Bring on Farage and Boris...
You'd first of all have to explain to your voters what if anything is the difference between Farage Boris and Labour because I for one can't see any
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @JonWC said:
> > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
> >
> > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
>
> Yep but at least it will be Remain Vs No Deal rather than Remain vs everyone's imagined unicorn...
No Dealers have plenty of unicorns!
I note that North Lincs turkeys voted for an early Christmas again.
> Also not too sure the Greens and LibDems really have that much in common - where they do it is more a case of convergent evolution rather than a single underlying philosophy.
>
> The Greens are hard left and favour pretty illiberal solutions (much more like Corbyn really), and the LibDems now at least are more urban(e) champagne socialists in outlook.
Liberalism = Socialism ?
> SLABs best performance seems to be Nth Lanarkshire at 16.4%
>
> Greens ran SLAB fairly close in Glasgow.
N Lanarkshire still has died in the wool slab supporters. Glasgow has much more mobile population.
Today Brussels, tomorrow Moscow!
Le Pen 23.31%
Macron 22.41%
Greens 13.47%
Republicains 8.48%
France Insoumise 6.31%
Socialisys 6.19%
French Interior Ministry gives the following seats allocation...
Le Pen 22 (to become 23 after Brexit)
Macron 21 (to become 23 after Brexit)
Greens 12 (to bcome 13 after Brexit)
Republicains 8
France Insoumise 6
Socialists 5 (to become 6 after Brexit)
61,539 out of 61,576 polling stations reported
Lega 34.27
PD 22.73
5 Stars 17.06
Forza Italia 8.78
Fratelli d'Italia 6.45
So Nigel still in favour of PR, then. I guess if he were to clean up in a FPTP GE he could change the system, but still get five years to run the country.
Was very aggressively accusing the BBC of misreporting the elections - talking about BXP’s success when they “should” have been reporting that if you added LD and Greens together it was a Remain triumph
After about three attacks the BBC interviewer laid into him and then switched away
(I’m sure he was just following the agreed line but he handled it really really badly)
> Corbyn is done. The only question is, is he done like May was done two years ago, clinging on and inflicting further damage? Or is he done like May was done after the locals, as in he's gone next month?
Even if they do get rid of corbyn, the political nature of the Labour membership suggests to me that a corbyn like politician would be elected, I can't see a central candidate winning with momentum movement gnashing at their heels.
How I stop the yellow peril invading rural Harpenden is a tricky one !!
St Albans and District.
The Conservatives trailed the Green Party in fourth place with Labour in fifth, a few hundred votes ahead of Change UK.
The results are as follows:
Change UK - The Independent Group 2,235
Conservative and Unionist Party 4,583
English Democrats 171
Green Party 6,010
Labour Party 2,752
Liberal Democrats 22,232
The Brexit Party 10,590
UK Independence Party (UKIP) 717
Csordas, Attila 68
I hate to puncture the noisy optimism of the pb.com LibDems. But ...
No-one votes for the LibDems. The LibDem votes are against the other parties.
Voting LibDem is a just therapy for Anger Management.
A well managed brexit that gets the fish back but keeps us in a customs union with freedom of movement is the objective. A no deal Brexit that triggers an independence referendum the worst outcome.
> https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1132912987533119488
Goodbye the North and Wales. Hello London Labour Party.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-48362272
> > @malcolmg said:
> > Am I correct in thinking that not only have the Tories not come top in any counting area, they have nearly no second places either?
> >
> >
> >
> > South Ayrshire seems to be the only one. @malcolmg
> >
> > Nearly all the Tories live in South Ayrshire, lots of mansions around Prestwick , Troon , Ayr.
> > PS: Dvaidson's pathetic stance of single issue , No referendum on Independence is doing for them, they need to change the record and get some policies, Ruthie's flim flam is painfully obvious and even her media pals cannot disguise her mediocrity.
>
> That's a load of hot air Malcy and you know it. Ruth is a very impressive politician
She's impressive in terms of getting relatively uncritical attention, which is a much a function of the weird Scottish media landscape.
Policy-wise she's all over the place, tracking the Conservatives' drift, abandoning things she's previously been adamant about as easily as Cameron forgetting his children in the pub.
She can't break the STory ceiling (the SNP vote is strong, but if it collapsed would not break Conservative) and if she were to enter Westminster, she'd lose the media armbands she currently enjoys.
I think she's already on the gentle downhill slope of her career, with 2016-2017 being the peak.
> The most interesting thing that will come out of Scotland in the next month or two is the policy taken by Ruth Davidson. The Scottish tories kept their MEP and got more vote share than English tories but don’t expect her to be happy with this.
>
> A well managed brexit that gets the fish back but keeps us in a customs union with freedom of movement is the objective. A no deal Brexit that triggers an independence referendum the worst outcome.
>
>
Not sure that follows.
The Brexit Party beat the Scottish Tories in Scotland, the SNP did no better than 2017
> Glad to see Jezziah on form this morning rightly celebrating Labour's Sensational Victory last night. Only the Power of Corbyn ensured that Labour swept the board.
>
> Today Brussels, tomorrow Moscow!
Farage is Moscow's candidate
We know what the Tories are going to do - they are going to go hard leave and try to out-compete Farage for the angry vote. In doimg so they will lose a proportion of their party/voters who find tbis reprehensible. The Tory party of old is dead.
We don't know what Labour are going to do. We cannot try and punt for the same angry vote as BXP/Boris. That vote doesn't trust us. We definitely can't sit on the fence any longer. Which only leaves pivoting to remain and forging a progressive alliance with LD/Green/CHUMPS.
Witness the death and rebirth of the LibDems. They died with Vince Cable one of the chief architects of their death. They were reborn with Vince Cable the chief architects of their resurrection. How? Because the electorate who Absolutely Pledged never to vote for them again on 2015 is voting for them again in 2019 having found the LDs in the fight place as political tides shift. Labour could do the same.
The Tories will now fracture. Their centre right cannot accept what they logically have to do. Just as the majority of the Labour Party cannot stomach Corbyns bullshit over Europe. It's fine for cancer supporters like Bastani and Jezziah to attack the body for the temerity of denouncing cancer, but we must do so, or cancer wins as the body dies.
Fuck Corbyn. It's on.
> Newham seems to be Labours best performance at 51%, with Leicester coming second at 47%.
Can't think why that would be.
> Whilst we have to be mindful not to directly transfer the Euro result to a general election it has to be said that the LibDems look poised to give arch Conservative brexiteer Anne Main in St. Albans constituency a most uncomfortable time.
>
> How I stop the yellow peril invading rural Harpenden is a tricky one !!
>
> St Albans and District.
>
> The Conservatives trailed the Green Party in fourth place with Labour in fifth, a few hundred votes ahead of Change UK.
>
> The results are as follows:
>
> Change UK - The Independent Group 2,235
> Conservative and Unionist Party 4,583
> English Democrats 171
> Green Party 6,010
> Labour Party 2,752
> Liberal Democrats 22,232
> The Brexit Party 10,590
> UK Independence Party (UKIP) 717
> Csordas, Attila 68
Not just St Albans, but throughtout the Home Counties there were strong LD performances.
The BBC map by party is pretty good.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48417228
> https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1132912987533119488
The train has already left the station.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48418524
> https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1132892361036640256
>
>
>
> Lib Dems won Cameron’s area, Witney, too. First time that’s ever happened.
More significantly, perhaps, the Lib Dems topped the vote in the seats of Hunt and Raab.
> It is time to say it.
>
> I hate to puncture the noisy optimism of the pb.com LibDems. But ...
>
> No-one votes for the LibDems. The LibDem votes are against the other parties.
>
> Voting LibDem is a just therapy for Anger Management.
Apply the same thing to Brexit Party and boom! you just dismissed half the voters in the country.
> What is truly fascinating is seeing the three way split of parties. We have Leave parties, Remain parties, and then we have ConLab. The country is divided between Leave and Remain, and if you try and do both you get fucked.
>
> We know what the Tories are going to do - they are going to go hard leave and try to out-compete Farage for the angry vote. In doimg so they will lose a proportion of their party/voters who find tbis reprehensible. The Tory party of old is dead.
>
> We don't know what Labour are going to do. We cannot try and punt for the same angry vote as BXP/Boris. That vote doesn't trust us. We definitely can't sit on the fence any longer. Which only leaves pivoting to remain and forging a progressive alliance with LD/Green/CHUMPS.
>
> Witness the death and rebirth of the LibDems. They died with Vince Cable one of the chief architects of their death. They were reborn with Vince Cable the chief architects of their resurrection. How? Because the electorate who Absolutely Pledged never to vote for them again on 2015 is voting for them again in 2019 having found the LDs in the fight place as political tides shift. Labour could do the same.
>
> The Tories will now fracture. Their centre right cannot accept what they logically have to do. Just as the majority of the Labour Party cannot stomach Corbyns bullshit over Europe. It's fine for cancer supporters like Bastani and Jezziah to attack the body for the temerity of denouncing cancer, but we must do so, or cancer wins as the body dies.
>
> Fuck Corbyn. It's on.
What is interesting was how last night we moved to North American or French politics in the UK with a populist, socially conservative, largely rural and market town right-wing party and a liberal largely metropolitan party comprising the top 2.
If the Tories do not deliver Brexit and Labour do not openly oppose Brexit that is where we could be heading
> But in return, will the Brexit Party stand aside for No Deal Conservative candidates?
>
> Not what they are saying this morning
Well give them a morning to enjoy their triumph, before reality sets in - they were the picket line to which striking Tories went, to warm their hands on the flaming Brexit brazier on a very chill night for them.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1132912987533119488
>
> The train has already left the station.
And to think. Corbyn had the chance to be on board, with a nice comfortable place on the floor. And he's missed it.
> Italy
> 61,539 out of 61,576 polling stations reported
>
>
> Lega 34.27
> PD 22.73
> 5 Stars 17.06
> Forza Italia 8.78
> Fratelli d'Italia 6.45
>
>
Lega landslide for Salvini.
Lega plus rightwing coalition partners Forza Italia More than PD and 5 Stars combined (though Lega in government with 5 Stars).
Far right Brothers of Italy on 6%
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1132912987533119488
>
> The train has already left the station.
Adam Boulton on Sky very sceptical and cast doubt on just how genuine it is
And of course too little too late and the end of labour in Scotland, Wales and the North