What should concern Remain supporters is that even with favourable turnout differentials, the result was still more or less evenly split between revoke and Brexit.
It depends how you count the Labour and Tory voters, but if you split them by how the polling shows their support ratios as remain:leave then you get about 53%:47%, which is basically what polling shows for a hypothetical second referendum.
Suggests the polls are fairly decent, and that both sides are pretty entrenched in their views.
The biggest collapse in vote share and in seats is UKIP, who have fallen from first place to ninth. First to ninth.
That's an unequivocally *Leave* party doing *Spectacularly badly* and getting completely wiped out. Completely.
Why isn't this a story? Why are the media glossing over this so? Why?
The 'BXP are the new UKIP' angle really doesn't wash. UKIP continued to exist and stood candidates everywhere. The BXP are an entirely new entity. There was no merger or even a formal splinter, to it's not comparable with David Owen's rump SDP in the early 90s.
Arguments that voters 'needed to coalesce' are also very weak. This election was fought under a form of PR, which should largely render such tactics unnecessary - the LDs and Greens were both able to make gains for example.
To acknowledge the truth is to admit that the BXP are nothing more than the latest in a long line of insubstantial vanity projects to serve as the repository for protest votes, just as Farage's UKIP, Goldsmith's Referendum Party and Kilroy-Silk's Veritas were before them.
It's delusional to assume that the longer term fate of the BXP will be any different.
> @SirBenjamin said: > The biggest collapse in vote share and in seats is UKIP, who have fallen from first place to ninth. First to ninth. > > That's an unequivocally *Leave* party doing *Spectacularly badly* and getting completely wiped out. Completely. > > Why isn't this a story? Why are the media glossing over this so? Why? > > The 'BXP are the new UKIP' angle really doesn't wash. UKIP continued to exist and stood candidates everywhere. The BXP are an entirely new entity. There was no merger or even a formal splinter, to it's not comparable with David Owen's rump SDP in the early 90s. > > Arguments that voters 'needed to coalesce' are also very weak. This election was fought under a form of PR, which should largely render such tactics unnecessary - the LDs and Greens were both able to make gains for example. > > To acknowledge the truth is to admit that the BXP are nothing more than the latest in a long line of insubstantial vanity projects to serve as the repository for protest votes, just as Farage's UKIP, Goldsmith's Referendum Party and Kilroy-Silk's Veritas were before them. > > It's delusional to assume that the longer term fate of the BXP will be any different.
Does it care about a longer term fate ?
If on the morning of 1st November the UK has left the EU without a deal it'll have done it's job and Nigel will happily retire.
He only came back to life because parliament failed to agree a deal by 29th March
How long do the new MEPs need to sit for before getting a lifetime gold-plated pension? Seems like a strong motivation to delay Brexit even further, even for those in the Brexit party.
> @NeilVW said: > Over the last few hours Con have gone back to favourite for Most Seats at next GE. > > What could explain that?
People assuming (correctly) that they will elect a leaver leader, and (incorrectly) that they will automatically reclaim Brexit votes, while Labour stay in their current bind ?
At this point, I really don’t know what happens next. Depending on what does, it is just about conceivable that any one of four parties wins most seats.
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > On polling errors and over-estimation of Labour, one obvious suspicion is that the pollsters' online panels are stuffed full of party activists, and that Labour activists were more likely to stay loyal to the party than Conservative activists. > > This explains both the failure and direction of that failure, and also why the phone poll did well. Whether the explanation is valid is a different matter.
I agree that the phone methodology is inherently more reliable now. The activists have all “learnt the system”.
The panels have unfortunately become “stale”. My advice: dump the entire panel and don’t let in a single one of them for at least five years.
Also, all companies (online, phone, ftf, whatever) need to go to extraordinary effort to sample unwilling respondents.
> @Nigelb said: > > @NeilVW said: > > Over the last few hours Con have gone back to favourite for Most Seats at next GE. > > > > What could explain that? > > People assuming (correctly) that they will elect a leaver leader, and (incorrectly) that they will automatically reclaim Brexit votes, while Labour stay in their current bind ? > > At this point, I really don’t know what happens next. Depending on what does, it is just about conceivable that any one of four parties wins most seats. > >
Isn't it obvious?
Despite the 9% score, the Euro elections have been an overall good news story for the Tories.
Come July they will have a clear position on Brexit, it will be unequivocally "leave", The Lib Dems have a clear position of revoke.
Labour on the other hand has had it's attempt to play both sides of it's support off against each exposed.
There is no more can to kick, the desires of Wigan and Walthamstow can no longer be reconciled. Labour needs to make a choice, whatever it does will upset a wing of it's support badly.
> > Over the last few hours Con have gone back to favourite for Most Seats at next GE.
> >
> > What could explain that?
>
> People assuming (correctly) that they will elect a leaver leader, and (incorrectly) that they will automatically reclaim Brexit votes, while Labour stay in their current bind ?
>
> At this point, I really don’t know what happens next. Depending on what does, it is just about conceivable that any one of four parties wins most seats.
>
>
Isn't it obvious?
Despite the 9% score, the Euro elections have been an overall good news story for the Tories.
Come July they will have a clear position on Brexit, it will be unequivocally "leave", The Lib Dems have a clear position of revoke.
Labour on the other hand has had it's attempt to play both sides of it's support off against each exposed.
There is no more can to kick, the desires of Wigan and Walthamstow can no longer be reconciled. Labour needs to make a choice, whatever it does will upset a wing of it's support badly.
Tories most seats looks nailed on.
My worry is this confidence won't be shared by Tory MPs with the power to call an election.
> @AndyJS said: > Labour didn't win a single council area in Wales.
Brexit is not the *only* factor in these elections. Other important factors include:
Wales: dire performance of the Welsh Government (Labour); dire performance of the Westminster government (Conservative); and of course, as always, the Welsh constitutional question itself. NI: Irish reunification; Direct Westminster Rule; and of course good old fashioned sectarianism. Scotland: independence, independence; and, er, independence. England: the fact that the last four prime ministers have all been grossly incompetent, or in the case of Blair, simply evil; the ERG; and other assorted bampots (eg Corbyn, Farage).
> @TheJezziah said: > > @Nigelb said: > > > > @NeilVW said: > > > > Over the last few hours Con have gone back to favourite for Most Seats at next GE. > > > > > > > > What could explain that? > > > > > > People assuming (correctly) that they will elect a leaver leader, and (incorrectly) that they will automatically reclaim Brexit votes, while Labour stay in their current bind ? > > > > > > At this point, I really don’t know what happens next. Depending on what does, it is just about conceivable that any one of four parties wins most seats. > > > > > > > > > > Isn't it obvious? > > > > Despite the 9% score, the Euro elections have been an overall good news story for the Tories. > > > > Come July they will have a clear position on Brexit, it will be unequivocally "leave", The Lib Dems have a clear position of revoke. > > > > Labour on the other hand has had it's attempt to play both sides of it's support off against each exposed. > > > > There is no more can to kick, the desires of Wigan and Walthamstow can no longer be reconciled. Labour needs to make a choice, whatever it does will upset a wing of it's support badly. > > > > Tories most seats looks nailed on. > > My worry is this confidence won't be shared by Tory MPs with the power to call an election.
Would it not be fair to say that many of the tories who stayed loyal do not want a straight leave but a negotiated leave. This was the message in Scotland where the tories got more votes than England.
Chasing the brexit party votes threatens to destroy the Tory party and potentially the country. It is a very tricky situation requiring a good leader.
But not maybe the 9% fully. Also the labour vote is pretty remain but unclear which part of it stayed loyal. Overall it shows maybe 55 / 45 for remain.
My forecast wasn't too far adrift, apart from the Tories.
33% Turnout
31% BXP 21% LD 14% Con 12% Lab 10% Green 4% CHUK 4% UKIP 4% Other
Lib Dems looking to be the challengers across much of England come the next GE. Corbynism may well be finished, but a lot of those Tory MPs may have the same problem as Labour coalfield MPs. The party line may well finish them.
Last time I checked the Tories were pretty keen on Brexit.
Lib Dem bar chart trickery will never cease...
Bit of an interesting extra dilemma as well for some Lib Dems, if you've been calling Labour a pro Brexit party then surely that was an overwhelming pro Brexit vote...?
Stand by for a morning of desperate spinning, with everyone* saying how the results mean that their own party / cause / Brexit viewpoint is correct, and everyone else is wrong.
*except the CUK/TIGs, the London climate change protestors and Tommy Robinson - they all got screwed.
Would it not be fair to say that many of the tories who stayed loyal do not want a straight leave but a negotiated leave. This was the message in Scotland where the tories got more votes than England.
Chasing the brexit party votes threatens to destroy the Tory party and potentially the country. It is a very tricky situation requiring a good leader.
You seem to have whole different elections going on in Scotland...
I get the impression in England and Wales it was mainly very loyal Tory voters left, maybe some element of deal supporters (as opposed to no deal) but I think the Tories would have to actively try to get rid of them, some might argue they already have.
> @TheJezziah said: > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968 > > > > > > Last time I checked the Tories were pretty keen on Brexit. > > Lib Dem bar chart trickery will never cease... > > Bit of an interesting extra dilemma as well for some Lib Dems, if you've been calling Labour a pro Brexit party then surely that was an overwhelming pro Brexit vote...?
As the Deal is dead, and negotiation over the country shortly has to choose between No Deal* and No Brexit. The Tory and Labour vote shares may well be added to the No Brexit pile. In reality both will be a little more mixed.
> @Sandpit said: > Stand by for a morning of desperate spinning, with everyone* saying how the results mean that their own party / cause / Brexit viewpoint is correct, and everyone else is wrong. > > *except the CUK/TIGs, the London climate change protestors and Tommy Robinson - they all got screwed.
Still can't believe those protestors stood as independent candidates, in a list election!
Seems like a strangle complaint TBH, the results are obviously affected by the 2016 referendum but I'm not sure why that means he has to mention them in a statement about the Euro election results in 2019...
Edit: Or why specifically the loss of two Scottish MEPs would mean he should mention the referendum, would losing one have meant only a vague reference was needed and keeping two would mean it is okay not to mentioned the referendum?
The Indy ref has happened since the last Euros and was possibly an even bigger factor in the results... should he have mentioned that?
A modest £160 up for me, but I'm pretty happy with that.
Less happy with the Western Isles which is delaying my payout, along with everyone else's.
Well done to those who made money out of what must be the weirdest election result in living memory. I think I’ll finish a few quid up, but with a fair few losers along the way. Thankfully mostly for beer sized stakes, rather than Chateau Le Pin sized.
> @TheJezziah said: > https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1132800240355106818 > > > > Seems like a strangle complaint TBH, the results are obviously affected by the 2016 referendum but I'm not sure why that means he has to mention them in a statement about the Euro election results in 2019... > > Edit: Or why specifically the loss of two Scottish MEPs would mean he should mention the referendum, would losing one have meant only a vague reference was needed and keeping two would mean it is okay not to mentioned the referendum? > > The Indy ref has happened since the last Euros and was possibly an even bigger factor in the results... should he have mentioned that?
SLAB looks to be dead, and along with it Lab as largest party.
> Stand by for a morning of desperate spinning, with everyone* saying how the results mean that their own party / cause / Brexit viewpoint is correct, and everyone else is wrong.
>
> *except the CUK/TIGs, the London climate change protestors and Tommy Robinson - they all got screwed.
Still can't believe those protestors stood as independent candidates, in a list election!
I think their problem was that they didn’t have a party registered, because by the time they decided to stand (when the protests were held) it was too late to do so. That’s the most charitable explanation anyway.
They clearly didn’t employ anyone with experience as an election agent, who would have told them that there are many more effective ways to spend £35,000.
> Seems like a strangle complaint TBH, the results are obviously affected by the 2016 referendum but I'm not sure why that means he has to mention them in a statement about the Euro election results in 2019...
>
> Edit: Or why specifically the loss of two Scottish MEPs would mean he should mention the referendum, would losing one have meant only a vague reference was needed and keeping two would mean it is okay not to mentioned the referendum?
>
> The Indy ref has happened since the last Euros and was possibly an even bigger factor in the results... should he have mentioned that?
SLAB looks to be dead, and along with it Lab as largest party.
Okay... is that why he should have mentioned the EU referendum...?
SLAB has been dead-ish for a few years and Labour not the largest party for a good bit longer... although those things are closer to being false now than they were pre Corbyn and pre EU ref.
I would be very lary either brexiteers or remainers trying to add up tallies to justify their position.
Euro election had 51% turnout, EU referendum had 80%+ turnout, that's a fact. I would bet that leavers would be less likely to vote in the euro election than remainers, indeed wasn't turnout in leave areas turbout was the same while remain areas went up, albeit slightly.
> Seems like a strangle complaint TBH, the results are obviously affected by the 2016 referendum but I'm not sure why that means he has to mention them in a statement about the Euro election results in 2019...
>
> Edit: Or why specifically the loss of two Scottish MEPs would mean he should mention the referendum, would losing one have meant only a vague reference was needed and keeping two would mean it is okay not to mentioned the referendum?
>
> The Indy ref has happened since the last Euros and was possibly an even bigger factor in the results... should he have mentioned that?
SLAB looks to be dead, and along with it Lab as largest party.
Okay... is that why he should have mentioned the EU referendum...?
SLAB has been dead-ish for a few years and Labour not the largest party for a good bit longer... although those things are closer to being false now than they were pre Corbyn and pre EU ref.
SLAB continue to go backwards, while Labour need a revival for a hope of a majority. LDs best placed to take seats off the Tories, Greens likely to be a threat to urban Labour.
SLAB continue to go backwards, while Labour need a revival for a hope of a majority. LDs best placed to take seats off the Tories, Greens likely to be a threat to urban Labour.
Pop Corbyn in the toast rack, he is done.
Under Corbyn going backwards has been increasing our seats by 500%... (Edit in ref to SLAB and MPs)
Whilst it would be very good for Lib Dems, so I can understand the suggestion... Labour members aren't stupid enough to go down the 3% CUK route, we'll stick with Corbyn thanks.
SLAB continue to go backwards, while Labour need a revival for a hope of a majority. LDs best placed to take seats off the Tories, Greens likely to be a threat to urban Labour.
Pop Corbyn in the toast rack, he is done.
Under Corbyn going backwards has been increasing our seats by 500%...
Whilst it would be very good for Lib Dems, so I can understand the suggestion... Labour members aren't stupid enough to go down the 3% CUK route, we'll stick with Corbyn thanks.
With every election Corbynism is going backwards. Islington went yellow last night.
In the quite likely event of an autumn GE, both Lab and Con look to be losing seats IMO.
> @TheJezziah said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1132800240355106818 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Seems like a strangle complaint TBH, the results are obviously affected by the 2016 referendum but I'm not sure why that means he has to mention them in a statement about the Euro election results in 2019... > > > > > > Edit: Or why specifically the loss of two Scottish MEPs would mean he should mention the referendum, would losing one have meant only a vague reference was needed and keeping two would mean it is okay not to mentioned the referendum? > > > > > > The Indy ref has happened since the last Euros and was possibly an even bigger factor in the results... should he have mentioned that? > > > > SLAB looks to be dead, and along with it Lab as largest party. > > Okay... is that why he should have mentioned the EU referendum...? > > SLAB has been dead-ish for a few years and Labour not the largest party for a good bit longer... although those things are closer to being false now than they were pre Corbyn and pre EU ref.
It's undoubtedly true SLAB was in a bad way before both Corbyn and the EU referendum. It's still extraordinary though because there appears to be no fight or plan to even begin to turn the tables and a Second Referendum, regardless of how it might have gone down in parts of England, might've been SLAB's ticket to a degree of relevancy among unionist remainers. It's indicative of why Corbynism is making a bad situation worse in the two celtic nations (Welsh Labour I think is now in grave danger from Plaid), in that two leaders were chosen not for their independence, local cachet, and charisma, but for their loyalty to a Corbyn project which struggles to deal with dissent due to its view of itself as the one true Labour faith and democratic centralist approach of many of its key players. That's made the branch office problem of Labour's two devolved parties worse as they're not even able to utter much of a peep against a leader and his approach that are deeply unpopular and seen as a long way from the needs of their voters.
> @Garza said: > > @MikeSmithson said: > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968 > > I would be very lary either brexiteers or remainers trying to add up tallies to justify their position. > > Euro election had 51% turnout, EU referendum had 80%+ turnout, that's a fact. I would bet that leavers would be less likely to vote in the euro election than remainers, indeed wasn't turnout in leave areas turbout was the same while remain areas went up, albeit slightly. > >
The only conclusion to be drawn is that the country is split down the middle. I very much doubt if it can be happily re-united any time soon.
SLAB continue to go backwards, while Labour need a revival for a hope of a majority. LDs best placed to take seats off the Tories, Greens likely to be a threat to urban Labour.
Pop Corbyn in the toast rack, he is done.
Under Corbyn going backwards has been increasing our seats by 500%...
Whilst it would be very good for Lib Dems, so I can understand the suggestion... Labour members aren't stupid enough to go down the 3% CUK route, we'll stick with Corbyn thanks.
With every election Corbynism is going backwards. Islington went yellow last night.
In the quite likely event of an autumn GE, both Lab and Con look to be losing seats IMO.
The minus 10% we went backwards in the last election was terrible, the minus 30 odd seats we lost as well...
Terrible times...
It is almost as if your a Lib Dem who wants us to go down the CUK route so the Lib Dems can sweep up. Thanks but no thanks.
Why exclude CHUK ? . They have a block on MP's and even their 3/4% shouldn't be tossed overboard because the LibDems are justifiably beating their chests over the past month. An alliance of yellow/green/white would be a powerful bloc.
I would be very lary either brexiteers or remainers trying to add up tallies to justify their position.
Euro election had 51% turnout, EU referendum had 80%+ turnout, that's a fact. I would bet that leavers would be less likely to vote in the euro election than remainers, indeed wasn't turnout in leave areas turbout was the same while remain areas went up, albeit slightly.
Yes, but that’s the most credible turnout pattern for a referendum, as well. We have already had a fair few Brexit types threatening to boycott it, or saying they’ll never vote again, and it hasn’t been called yet.
It's undoubtedly true SLAB was in a bad way before both Corbyn and the EU referendum. It's still extraordinary though because there appears to be no fight or plan to even begin to turn the tables and a Second Referendum, regardless of how it might have gone down in parts of England, might've been SLAB's ticket to a degree of relevancy among unionist remainers. It's indicative of why Corbynism is making a bad situation worse in the two celtic nations (Welsh Labour I think is now in grave danger from Plaid), in that two leaders were chosen not for their independence, local cachet, and charisma, but for their loyalty to a Corbyn project which struggles to deal with dissent due to its view of itself as the one true Labour faith and democratic centralist approach of many of its key players. That's made the branch office problem of Labour's two devolved parties worse as they're not even able to utter much of a peep against a leader and his approach that are deeply unpopular and seen as a long way from the needs of their voters.
The 2 leaders were chosen by the members in those countries. Corbyn didn't even really do anything to influence the results or the members.
Corbyn is usually accused of being a Stalinist for letting members vote to make decisions, imagine he overruled or took away that right and installed people instead.
The accusations about them being puppets chosen by central office would actually be true. You would be outraged. As would other English people who don't like Corbyn and never usually care otherwise...
Plaid did well in the Euros but come a Westminster election I can't see them making much progress.
Why exclude CHUK ? . They have a block on MP's and even their 3/4% shouldn't be tossed overboard because the LibDems are justifiably beating their chests over the past month. An alliance of yellow/green/white would be a powerful bloc.
Yes, I agree. But the key building block is turning the increasingly common local electoral alliances between LibDems and Greens into a national deal. Having the CUK MPs on board would of course make it stronger, but mainly for the parliamentary gain.
> I would be very lary either brexiteers or remainers trying to add up tallies to justify their position.
>
> Euro election had 51% turnout, EU referendum had 80%+ turnout, that's a fact. I would bet that leavers would be less likely to vote in the euro election than remainers, indeed wasn't turnout in leave areas turbout was the same while remain areas went up, albeit slightly.
>
>
The only conclusion to be drawn is that the country is split down the middle. I very much doubt if it can be happily re-united any time soon.
Laura K R4 making the obvious point that the pressure toward the extremes on both sides means we are heading for more bitter and divisive politics.
> @IanB2 said: > > @Garza said: > > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968 > > > > > > > > I would be very lary either brexiteers or remainers trying to add up tallies to justify their position. > > > > > > Euro election had 51% turnout, EU referendum had 80%+ turnout, that's a fact. I would bet that leavers would be less likely to vote in the euro election than remainers, indeed wasn't turnout in leave areas turbout was the same while remain areas went up, albeit slightly. > > > > > > > > > > The only conclusion to be drawn is that the country is split down the middle. I very much doubt if it can be happily re-united any time soon. > > Laura K R4 making the obvious point that the pressure toward the extremes on both sides means we are heading for more bitter and divisive politics.
Indeed; see the Express headline, as quoted on the BBC News page.
Labour doesn’t have a route to a majority any more. Without Scotland and challenged in Wales, it now faces a choice of giving up on much of the North or much of the metropolitan south, and doesn’t have an obvious bloc of new constituencies to aim for, the LibDems likely to be resilient in southern Remain seats outside London, which are not yearning for socialism to be thrust upon them.
The Tories at least have BXP’s constituency to aim for, though this would mean giving up on London and those same southern Remain seats. The question is whether as an institution the Tories can adapt to its emerging new constituency and whether they will ever be able to perform as well across the North as the BXP has just done. Their best hope is winning such seats on low vote shares if Labour stays on the fence and the non-Tory vote fragments.
SLAB continue to go backwards, while Labour need a revival for a hope of a majority. LDs best placed to take seats off the Tories, Greens likely to be a threat to urban Labour.
Pop Corbyn in the toast rack, he is done.
Under Corbyn going backwards has been increasing our seats by 500%...
Whilst it would be very good for Lib Dems, so I can understand the suggestion... Labour members aren't stupid enough to go down the 3% CUK route, we'll stick with Corbyn thanks.
With every election Corbynism is going backwards. Islington went yellow last night.
In the quite likely event of an autumn GE, both Lab and Con look to be losing seats IMO.
The minus 10% we went backwards in the last election was terrible, the minus 30 odd seats we lost as well...
Terrible times...
It is almost as if your a Lib Dem who wants us to go down the CUK route so the Lib Dems can sweep up. Thanks but no thanks.
Which seats do you forecast Lab gaining in the next GE?
Lab in 5th place in Charnwood so unlikely to be gaining Loughborough. 5th in NW Leics too. 4th in N Warks, 5th in South Warks. 3rd even in Derby, home of Skeletor, behind the LDs.
> @IanB2 said: > @IanB2 said: > > > > "Soubry explicitly criticising Allen on R4. > > > > The LibDems need to secure a seat-fighting alliance with the Greens pronto. Then simply ask whether the individual CUK MPs want to join." > > > > ................................................................................... > > > > Why exclude CHUK ? . They have a block on MP's and even their 3/4% shouldn't be tossed overboard because the LibDems are justifiably beating their chests over the past month. An alliance of yellow/green/white would be a powerful bloc. > > Yes, I agree. But the key building block is turning the increasingly common local electoral alliances between LibDems and Greens into a national deal. Having the CUK MPs on board would of course make it stronger, but mainly for the parliamentary gain.
Well.. the ;pollsters largely got it wrong did they, surprise surprise.
I have just been looking up the SE results, and I know I voted LD, but I have no idea who the LD candidate I voted for was, nor in fact any of the candidates, I just saw the LD logo and slapped my X there
> Why exclude CHUK ? . They have a block on MP's and even their 3/4% shouldn't be tossed overboard because the LibDems are justifiably beating their chests over the past month. An alliance of yellow/green/white would be a powerful bloc.
>
> Yes, I agree. But the key building block is turning the increasingly common local electoral alliances between LibDems and Greens into a national deal. Having the CUK MPs on board would of course make it stronger, but mainly for the parliamentary gain.
In the Windsor and Maidenhead council area I believe the LibDems were a close second. So this ‘fact’ does rely on the (not unreasonable) assumption that the LDs are stronger in Maidenhead than Windsor. But then so are the Tories.
Just turned on the TV to see Nigel Fucking Farage. Not what I needed this morning.
Anyway, he says they will stand 650 candidates at a GE, which surely means they will split the vote with Brexiteer Tories and let in swathes of Lib Dems in otherwise unwinnable seats?
Which seats do you forecast Lab gaining in the next GE?
Lab in 5th place in Charnwood so unlikely to be gaining Loughborough. 5th in NW Leics too. 4th in N Warks, 5th in South Warks. 3rd even in Derby, home of Skeletor, behind the LDs.
You may have noticed that was in the Euro elections rather than a General election, as well as being about different things they tend to have a slightly different turnout...
I didn't forecast Labour gaining particular seats at the last election and yet we managed it regardless.
I wonder if the Greens and Lib Dems will consider a pact at the next General Election with the Greens having an unencumbered run at
Bristol West
Bristol North West
Norwich South
Sheffield Central
In return for the Lib Dems having a Green free tilt at other targets ?
You wonder how much that would help them, though. My very strong impression is that the Greens and Liberal Democrats attract very different sorts of voters and if they were interested in switching, they already would have done.
@Ydoethur It'd definitely help the Greens in those seats and I can't imagine it being a net negative for the Lib Dems everywhere else. The Green voters I know of in this Euro election would switch to the Lib Dems with a nod from the Greens I think.
Can't say I actually know but from what I heard does that include Thornberry's constituency which is more Lib Demmy, and given the close result Corbyn's constituency probably actually went Labour (if the first bit is right)
Two clear findings from the vote. 1. There is a CLEAR majority for Remain however you look at the results 2. Corbyn has to go. He has shown himself unfit to be leader and with him in charge Labour have zero chance of forming a government.
Whether Emily Thornberry moves against him as she suggested on TV last night or whether the defections turn into a stampede I'll be amazed if he's still in place by the end of October.
> @Scott_P said: > Just turned on the TV to see Nigel Fucking Farage. Not what I needed this morning. > > Anyway, he says they will stand 650 candidates at a GE, which surely means they will split the vote with Brexiteer Tories and let in swathes of Lib Dems in otherwise unwinnable seats?
I know, why are the BBC interviewing the leader of the party that got most votes on Thursday?
> @TheJezziah said: > > > The 2 leaders were chosen by the members in those countries. Corbyn didn't even really do anything to influence the results or the members. > > Corbyn is usually accused of being a Stalinist for letting members vote to make decisions, imagine he overruled or took away that right and installed people instead. > > The accusations about them being puppets chosen by central office would actually be true. You would be outraged. As would other English people who don't like Corbyn and never usually care otherwise... > > Plaid did well in the Euros but come a Westminster election I can't see them making much progress.
Yes, of course they were chosen by the membership - but it was made very clear who Momentum and the leadership were backing, much like the much maligned NEC slate. But therein lies the problem, members chose leaders mostly on their perceived loyalty to the leadership, rather than other qualities or a desire for a more independent voice. It's not the most dreadful idea in England - where Corbyn is ultimately effectively always on the ballot paper and where although unpopular in general, he has pockets of popularity and "meh, at least he's not a Tory". It's politically suicidal in devolved countries where leaders have to define themselves by picking fights with their national leadership when UK policy is going down badly in their backyard and with nominally 'progressive' nationalist alternatives. That's very, very complacent about Plaid - their new leader is very effective and look in with a real chance of coming top in the WA elex. We all know what happened in Scotland after the SNP took over as a party of devolved government.
I wonder if the Greens and Lib Dems will consider a pact at the next General Election with the Greens having an unencumbered run at
Bristol West
Bristol North West
Norwich South
Sheffield Central
In return for the Lib Dems having a Green free tilt at other targets ?
You wonder how much that would help them, though. My very strong impression is that the Greens and Liberal Democrats attract very different sorts of voters and if they were interested in switching, they already would have done.
An electoral alliance between them could be very powerful. Whilst explicitly short term until PR, the two parties could easily secure a common agreement prioritising political reform, opposition to Brexit, and primacy of environmental policy. Such an approach could recapture many of the young (who were the emerging LibDem constituency pre-Clegg) from Corbyn.
An electoral pact wouldn’t just be ‘free tilt’ but explicitly mutual support. As you say, the Greens would get a free run at the relatively few seats where they have a strong interest (add the IOW to your list, and the other bits of Brighton) but there are plenty of seats where both of them have so little presence that giving the Greens a run wouldn’t cause the LibDems much grief.
Two clear findings from the vote. 1. There is a CLEAR majority for Remain however you look at the results 2. Corbyn has to go. He has shown himself unfit to be leader and with him in charge Labour have zero chance of forming a government.
Whether Emily Thornberry moves against him as she suggested on TV last night or whether the defections turn into a stampede I'll be amazed if he's still in place by the end of October.
I'm pretty sure Emily was on about going to a remain stance rather than changing leader...
Two clear findings from the vote. 1. There is a CLEAR majority for Remain however you look at the results 2. Corbyn has to go. He has shown himself unfit to be leader and with him in charge Labour have zero chance of forming a government.
I'm not sure I would go so far as to say this shows a clear majority for Remain. What it does definitely show is (a) Remainers are more motivated at this moment and (b) their vote is being fragmented among several parties.
The obvious lesson the Tories will draw is that if they get us out, they will rally a big group of support behind them - probably enough to win an election given said fragmentation.
And that has to be good news - unfortunately - for leading Brexiteer candidates Gove and Johnson.
Two clear findings from the vote. 1. There is a CLEAR majority for Remain however you look at the results 2. Corbyn has to go. He has shown himself unfit to be leader and with him in charge Labour have zero chance of forming a government.
Whether Emily Thornberry moves against him as she suggested on TV last night or whether the defections turn into a stampede I'll be amazed if he's still in place by the end of October.
I'm pretty sure Emily was on about going to a remain stance rather than changing leader...
> @TheJezziah said: > Which seats do you forecast Lab gaining in the next GE? > > Lab in 5th place in Charnwood so unlikely to be gaining Loughborough. 5th in NW Leics too. 4th in N Warks, 5th in South Warks. 3rd even in Derby, home of Skeletor, behind the LDs. > > > > You may have noticed that was in the Euro elections rather than a General election, as well as being about different things they tend to have a slightly different turnout... > > I didn't forecast Labour gaining particular seats at the last election and yet we managed it regardless.
I think you are probably right, we are going to have to have major seat losses for Labour at the next GE to put an end to Corbynism. Shouldn't have long to wait.
It is becoming easier for anti-No Deal Tory voters to find someone to vote for, without letting Corbyn into number 10.
> @SquareRoot said: > Well.. the ;pollsters largely got it wrong did they, surprise surprise. > > I have just been looking up the SE results, and I know I voted LD, but I have no idea who the LD candidate I voted for was, nor in fact any of the candidates, I just saw the LD logo and slapped my X there
Your LD MEPs:
Catherine Bearder
Elected as MEP for South East England in 2009. She was born in Hertfordshire and worked in the antique trade, as a zoological research assistant in Africa and latterly after children, in the voluntary sector with the Citizens Advice Bureau, Victim Support and National Federation of Women’s Institutes. She was a councillor on Cherwell District and Oxfordshire County Councils and parliamentary candidate for Banbury in 1997 and Henley in 2001. She is President of the Green Liberal Democrats and has a special interest in biodiversity protection and fighting human trafficking.
Antony Hook
Antony moved to Kent during his childhood as his father sought new work during the economically difficult times of the 1980s. Both his parents worked in local public services and are now retired. He has one brother who does statistical work for an organisation that promotes excellence in education. After attending a local grammar school, Antony studied history at University College London, followed by law at City University and the Inns of Court School of Law. He completed his training at leading chambers (a group of barristers) in the capital. He uses the skills he has developed as an advocate and lawyer to help him stand up for Faversham as a councillor.
Judith Bunting
Before entering politics, Judith was a science journalist and TV producer at the BBC for more than 20 years, directing films on green energy for Tomorrow’s World and quantum physics for Horizon and Discovery. More recently, Judith was co-creator of Magic Hands, the CBeebies television series which is presented in British Sign Language. Judith studied Natural Sciences at Cambridge University. In 2017, she was selected by the Royal Society of Chemistry to be one of their 175 Faces of Chemistry. Judith has previously fought Newbury for the Liberal Democrats.
@IanB2 Yep the seats would need refining, and say Coventry North West isn't going to be one of the seats involved. But I think it would be a good idea for them in principle.
> @TheJezziah said: > Which seats do you forecast Lab gaining in the next GE? > > Lab in 5th place in Charnwood so unlikely to be gaining Loughborough. 5th in NW Leics too. 4th in N Warks, 5th in South Warks. 3rd even in Derby, home of Skeletor, behind the LDs. > > > > You may have noticed that was in the Euro elections rather than a General election, as well as being about different things they tend to have a slightly different turnout... > > I didn't forecast Labour gaining particular seats at the last election and yet we managed it regardless.
They did it last time because they looked like the only alternative to Theresa and her Brexiteers. They've lost that USP for ever and frankly without that the party under Corbyn hasn't got a snowball in Hell's chance of forming a government.
Comments
https://mobile.twitter.com/JChristy93/status/1132819811438858241
> What should concern Remain supporters is that even with favourable turnout differentials, the result was still more or less evenly split between revoke and Brexit.
>
> https://mobile.twitter.com/JChristy93/status/1132819811438858241
It depends how you count the Labour and Tory voters, but if you split them by how the polling shows their support ratios as remain:leave then you get about 53%:47%, which is basically what polling shows for a hypothetical second referendum.
Suggests the polls are fairly decent, and that both sides are pretty entrenched in their views.
> https://twitter.com/JohnMannMP/status/1132760851713277952
>
>
>
> Yes, but Islington.....
Don't forget Camden - the leaked results of which caused an orgasmic flurry on here for about 2 hours earlier.
Belsize Park and Old Street matter - Bassetlaw and Oldham don't!
That's an unequivocally *Leave* party doing *Spectacularly badly* and getting completely wiped out. Completely.
Why isn't this a story? Why are the media glossing over this so? Why?
The 'BXP are the new UKIP' angle really doesn't wash. UKIP continued to exist and stood candidates everywhere. The BXP are an entirely new entity. There was no merger or even a formal splinter, to it's not comparable with David Owen's rump SDP in the early 90s.
Arguments that voters 'needed to coalesce' are also very weak. This election was fought under a form of PR, which should largely render such tactics unnecessary - the LDs and Greens were both able to make gains for example.
To acknowledge the truth is to admit that the BXP are nothing more than the latest in a long line of insubstantial vanity projects to serve as the repository for protest votes, just as Farage's UKIP, Goldsmith's Referendum Party and Kilroy-Silk's Veritas were before them.
It's delusional to assume that the longer term fate of the BXP will be any different.
> Councils where Labour got the most votes: (24 out of 373)
>
> Preston, Blackburn, Liverpool, Knowsley, Manchester, Oldham,
> Nottingham, Leicester, Birmingham, Luton, Slough,
> Croydon, Hounslow, Ealing, Brent, Harrow, Enfield, Hackney, Tower Hamlets,
> Newham, Greenwich, Barking & Dagenham, Redbridge, Waltham Forest.
Labour are lucky their ethnic minority vote are so loyal, they would by screwed without them.
> The biggest collapse in vote share and in seats is UKIP, who have fallen from first place to ninth. First to ninth.
>
> That's an unequivocally *Leave* party doing *Spectacularly badly* and getting completely wiped out. Completely.
>
> Why isn't this a story? Why are the media glossing over this so? Why?
>
> The 'BXP are the new UKIP' angle really doesn't wash. UKIP continued to exist and stood candidates everywhere. The BXP are an entirely new entity. There was no merger or even a formal splinter, to it's not comparable with David Owen's rump SDP in the early 90s.
>
> Arguments that voters 'needed to coalesce' are also very weak. This election was fought under a form of PR, which should largely render such tactics unnecessary - the LDs and Greens were both able to make gains for example.
>
> To acknowledge the truth is to admit that the BXP are nothing more than the latest in a long line of insubstantial vanity projects to serve as the repository for protest votes, just as Farage's UKIP, Goldsmith's Referendum Party and Kilroy-Silk's Veritas were before them.
>
> It's delusional to assume that the longer term fate of the BXP will be any different.
Does it care about a longer term fate ?
If on the morning of 1st November the UK has left the EU without a deal it'll have done it's job and Nigel will happily retire.
He only came back to life because parliament failed to agree a deal by 29th March
> Over the last few hours Con have gone back to favourite for Most Seats at next GE.
>
> What could explain that?
People assuming (correctly) that they will elect a leaver leader, and (incorrectly) that they will automatically reclaim Brexit votes, while Labour stay in their current bind ?
At this point, I really don’t know what happens next. Depending on what does, it is just about conceivable that any one of four parties wins most seats.
> On polling errors and over-estimation of Labour, one obvious suspicion is that the pollsters' online panels are stuffed full of party activists, and that Labour activists were more likely to stay loyal to the party than Conservative activists.
>
> This explains both the failure and direction of that failure, and also why the phone poll did well. Whether the explanation is valid is a different matter.
I agree that the phone methodology is inherently more reliable now. The activists have all “learnt the system”.
The panels have unfortunately become “stale”. My advice: dump the entire panel and don’t let in a single one of them for at least five years.
Also, all companies (online, phone, ftf, whatever) need to go to extraordinary effort to sample unwilling respondents.
> > @NeilVW said:
> > Over the last few hours Con have gone back to favourite for Most Seats at next GE.
> >
> > What could explain that?
>
> People assuming (correctly) that they will elect a leaver leader, and (incorrectly) that they will automatically reclaim Brexit votes, while Labour stay in their current bind ?
>
> At this point, I really don’t know what happens next. Depending on what does, it is just about conceivable that any one of four parties wins most seats.
>
>
Isn't it obvious?
Despite the 9% score, the Euro elections have been an overall good news story for the Tories.
Come July they will have a clear position on Brexit, it will be unequivocally "leave", The Lib Dems have a clear position of revoke.
Labour on the other hand has had it's attempt to play both sides of it's support off against each exposed.
There is no more can to kick, the desires of Wigan and Walthamstow can no longer be reconciled. Labour needs to make a choice, whatever it does will upset a wing of it's support badly.
Tories most seats looks nailed on.
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968
Last time I checked the Tories were pretty keen on Brexit.
> Labour didn't win a single council area in Wales.
Brexit is not the *only* factor in these elections. Other important factors include:
Wales: dire performance of the Welsh Government (Labour); dire performance of the Westminster government (Conservative); and of course, as always, the Welsh constitutional question itself.
NI: Irish reunification; Direct Westminster Rule; and of course good old fashioned sectarianism.
Scotland: independence, independence; and, er, independence.
England: the fact that the last four prime ministers have all been grossly incompetent, or in the case of Blair, simply evil; the ERG; and other assorted bampots (eg Corbyn, Farage).
> > @Nigelb said:
>
> > > @NeilVW said:
>
> > > Over the last few hours Con have gone back to favourite for Most Seats at next GE.
>
> > >
>
> > > What could explain that?
>
> >
>
> > People assuming (correctly) that they will elect a leaver leader, and (incorrectly) that they will automatically reclaim Brexit votes, while Labour stay in their current bind ?
>
> >
>
> > At this point, I really don’t know what happens next. Depending on what does, it is just about conceivable that any one of four parties wins most seats.
>
> >
>
> >
>
>
>
> Isn't it obvious?
>
>
>
> Despite the 9% score, the Euro elections have been an overall good news story for the Tories.
>
>
>
> Come July they will have a clear position on Brexit, it will be unequivocally "leave", The Lib Dems have a clear position of revoke.
>
>
>
> Labour on the other hand has had it's attempt to play both sides of it's support off against each exposed.
>
>
>
> There is no more can to kick, the desires of Wigan and Walthamstow can no longer be reconciled. Labour needs to make a choice, whatever it does will upset a wing of it's support badly.
>
>
>
> Tories most seats looks nailed on.
>
> My worry is this confidence won't be shared by Tory MPs with the power to call an election.
Would it not be fair to say that many of the tories who stayed loyal do not want a straight leave but a negotiated leave. This was the message in Scotland where the tories got more votes than England.
Chasing the brexit party votes threatens to destroy the Tory party and potentially the country. It is a very tricky situation requiring a good leader.
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968
>
> Last time I checked the Tories were pretty keen on Brexit.
If the anti Brexit Tories voted for the British Mussolini then presumably the rump is Remain.
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968
>
> Last time I checked the Tories were pretty keen on Brexit.
> @RobD said:
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968
>
> Last time I checked the Tories were pretty keen on Brexit.
But not maybe the 9% fully. Also the labour vote is pretty remain but unclear which part of it stayed loyal. Overall it shows maybe 55 / 45 for remain.
> > @RobD said:
> > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968
> >
> > Last time I checked the Tories were pretty keen on Brexit.
>
> > @RobD said:
> > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968
> >
> > Last time I checked the Tories were pretty keen on Brexit.
>
> But not maybe the 9% fully. Also the labour vote is pretty remain but unclear which part of it stayed loyal. Overall it shows maybe 55 / 45 for remain.
tories are pro leave
33% Turnout
31% BXP
21% LD
14% Con
12% Lab
10% Green
4% CHUK
4% UKIP
4% Other
Lib Dems looking to be the challengers across much of England come the next GE. Corbynism may well be finished, but a lot of those Tory MPs may have the same problem as Labour coalfield MPs. The party line may well finish them.
Bit of an interesting extra dilemma as well for some Lib Dems, if you've been calling Labour a pro Brexit party then surely that was an overwhelming pro Brexit vote...?
*except the CUK/TIGs, the London climate change protestors and Tommy Robinson - they all got screwed.
Less happy with the Western Isles which is delaying my payout, along with everyone else's.
I get the impression in England and Wales it was mainly very loyal Tory voters left, maybe some element of deal supporters (as opposed to no deal) but I think the Tories would have to actively try to get rid of them, some might argue they already have.
> > @MikeSmithson said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968
>
>
>
>
>
> Last time I checked the Tories were pretty keen on Brexit.
>
> Lib Dem bar chart trickery will never cease...
>
> Bit of an interesting extra dilemma as well for some Lib Dems, if you've been calling Labour a pro Brexit party then surely that was an overwhelming pro Brexit vote...?
As the Deal is dead, and negotiation over the country shortly has to choose between No Deal* and No Brexit. The Tory and Labour vote shares may well be added to the No Brexit pile. In reality both will be a little more mixed.
* very likely to also mean the end of the UK.
> Next up, Peterborough !
Saving my money for Brecon and radnor
> Stand by for a morning of desperate spinning, with everyone* saying how the results mean that their own party / cause / Brexit viewpoint is correct, and everyone else is wrong.
>
> *except the CUK/TIGs, the London climate change protestors and Tommy Robinson - they all got screwed.
Still can't believe those protestors stood as independent candidates, in a list election!
Edit: Or why specifically the loss of two Scottish MEPs would mean he should mention the referendum, would losing one have meant only a vague reference was needed and keeping two would mean it is okay not to mentioned the referendum?
The Indy ref has happened since the last Euros and was possibly an even bigger factor in the results... should he have mentioned that?
> https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1132800240355106818
>
>
>
> Seems like a strangle complaint TBH, the results are obviously affected by the 2016 referendum but I'm not sure why that means he has to mention them in a statement about the Euro election results in 2019...
>
> Edit: Or why specifically the loss of two Scottish MEPs would mean he should mention the referendum, would losing one have meant only a vague reference was needed and keeping two would mean it is okay not to mentioned the referendum?
>
> The Indy ref has happened since the last Euros and was possibly an even bigger factor in the results... should he have mentioned that?
SLAB looks to be dead, and along with it Lab as largest party.
They clearly didn’t employ anyone with experience as an election agent, who would have told them that there are many more effective ways to spend £35,000.
SLAB has been dead-ish for a few years and Labour not the largest party for a good bit longer... although those things are closer to being false now than they were pre Corbyn and pre EU ref.
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968
I would be very lary either brexiteers or remainers trying to add up tallies to justify their position.
Euro election had 51% turnout, EU referendum had 80%+ turnout, that's a fact. I would bet that leavers would be less likely to vote in the euro election than remainers, indeed wasn't turnout in leave areas turbout was the same while remain areas went up, albeit slightly.
Pop Corbyn in the toast rack, he is done.
Somehow I have managed to be nicely green on all four of the options in that market.
Whilst it would be very good for Lib Dems, so I can understand the suggestion... Labour members aren't stupid enough to go down the 3% CUK route, we'll stick with Corbyn thanks.
The LibDems need to secure a seat-fighting alliance with the Greens pronto. Then simply ask whether the individual CUK MPs want to join.
Rather good for BP and the Lib Dems. It's a classic two party squeeze.
In the quite likely event of an autumn GE, both Lab and Con look to be losing seats IMO.
> > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1132800240355106818
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Seems like a strangle complaint TBH, the results are obviously affected by the 2016 referendum but I'm not sure why that means he has to mention them in a statement about the Euro election results in 2019...
>
> >
>
> > Edit: Or why specifically the loss of two Scottish MEPs would mean he should mention the referendum, would losing one have meant only a vague reference was needed and keeping two would mean it is okay not to mentioned the referendum?
>
> >
>
> > The Indy ref has happened since the last Euros and was possibly an even bigger factor in the results... should he have mentioned that?
>
>
>
> SLAB looks to be dead, and along with it Lab as largest party.
>
> Okay... is that why he should have mentioned the EU referendum...?
>
> SLAB has been dead-ish for a few years and Labour not the largest party for a good bit longer... although those things are closer to being false now than they were pre Corbyn and pre EU ref.
It's undoubtedly true SLAB was in a bad way before both Corbyn and the EU referendum. It's still extraordinary though because there appears to be no fight or plan to even begin to turn the tables and a Second Referendum, regardless of how it might have gone down in parts of England, might've been SLAB's ticket to a degree of relevancy among unionist remainers. It's indicative of why Corbynism is making a bad situation worse in the two celtic nations (Welsh Labour I think is now in grave danger from Plaid), in that two leaders were chosen not for their independence, local cachet, and charisma, but for their loyalty to a Corbyn project which struggles to deal with dissent due to its view of itself as the one true Labour faith and democratic centralist approach of many of its key players. That's made the branch office problem of Labour's two devolved parties worse as they're not even able to utter much of a peep against a leader and his approach that are deeply unpopular and seen as a long way from the needs of their voters.
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968
>
> I would be very lary either brexiteers or remainers trying to add up tallies to justify their position.
>
> Euro election had 51% turnout, EU referendum had 80%+ turnout, that's a fact. I would bet that leavers would be less likely to vote in the euro election than remainers, indeed wasn't turnout in leave areas turbout was the same while remain areas went up, albeit slightly.
>
>
The only conclusion to be drawn is that the country is split down the middle. I very much doubt if it can be happily re-united any time soon.
Terrible times...
It is almost as if your a Lib Dem who wants us to go down the CUK route so the Lib Dems can sweep up. Thanks but no thanks.
"Soubry explicitly criticising Allen on R4.
The LibDems need to secure a seat-fighting alliance with the Greens pronto. Then simply ask whether the individual CUK MPs want to join."
...................................................................................
Why exclude CHUK ? . They have a block on MP's and even their 3/4% shouldn't be tossed overboard because the LibDems are justifiably beating their chests over the past month. An alliance of yellow/green/white would be a powerful bloc.
Corbyn is usually accused of being a Stalinist for letting members vote to make decisions, imagine he overruled or took away that right and installed people instead.
The accusations about them being puppets chosen by central office would actually be true. You would be outraged. As would other English people who don't like Corbyn and never usually care otherwise...
Plaid did well in the Euros but come a Westminster election I can't see them making much progress.
"Never Mind The Bollocks, Here's The Liberal Democrats."
> > @Garza said:
>
> > > @MikeSmithson said:
>
> > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968
>
>
>
> >
>
> > I would be very lary either brexiteers or remainers trying to add up tallies to justify their position.
>
> >
>
> > Euro election had 51% turnout, EU referendum had 80%+ turnout, that's a fact. I would bet that leavers would be less likely to vote in the euro election than remainers, indeed wasn't turnout in leave areas turbout was the same while remain areas went up, albeit slightly.
>
> >
>
> >
>
>
>
> The only conclusion to be drawn is that the country is split down the middle. I very much doubt if it can be happily re-united any time soon.
>
> Laura K R4 making the obvious point that the pressure toward the extremes on both sides means we are heading for more bitter and divisive politics.
Indeed; see the Express headline, as quoted on the BBC News page.
The Tories at least have BXP’s constituency to aim for, though this would mean giving up on London and those same southern Remain seats. The question is whether as an institution the Tories can adapt to its emerging new constituency and whether they will ever be able to perform as well across the North as the BXP has just done. Their best hope is winning such seats on low vote shares if Labour stays on the fence and the non-Tory vote fragments.
Lab in 5th place in Charnwood so unlikely to be gaining Loughborough. 5th in NW Leics too. 4th in N Warks, 5th in South Warks. 3rd even in Derby, home of Skeletor, behind the LDs.
> @IanB2 said:
>
>
>
> "Soubry explicitly criticising Allen on R4.
>
>
>
> The LibDems need to secure a seat-fighting alliance with the Greens pronto. Then simply ask whether the individual CUK MPs want to join."
>
>
>
> ...................................................................................
>
>
>
> Why exclude CHUK ? . They have a block on MP's and even their 3/4% shouldn't be tossed overboard because the LibDems are justifiably beating their chests over the past month. An alliance of yellow/green/white would be a powerful bloc.
>
> Yes, I agree. But the key building block is turning the increasingly common local electoral alliances between LibDems and Greens into a national deal. Having the CUK MPs on board would of course make it stronger, but mainly for the parliamentary gain.
......................................................................................
Get your ABBAcus out. I think you'll find "parliamentary gain" is "The Name Of The Game"
I have just been looking up the SE results, and I know I voted LD, but I have no idea who the LD candidate I voted for was, nor in fact any of the candidates, I just saw the LD logo and slapped my X there
Bristol West
Bristol North West
Norwich South
Sheffield Central
In return for the Lib Dems having a Green free tilt at other targets ?
Anyway, he says they will stand 650 candidates at a GE, which surely means they will split the vote with Brexiteer Tories and let in swathes of Lib Dems in otherwise unwinnable seats?
I didn't forecast Labour gaining particular seats at the last election and yet we managed it regardless.
Whether Emily Thornberry moves against him as she suggested on TV last night or whether the defections turn into a stampede I'll be amazed if he's still in place by the end of October.
> Just turned on the TV to see Nigel Fucking Farage. Not what I needed this morning.
>
> Anyway, he says they will stand 650 candidates at a GE, which surely means they will split the vote with Brexiteer Tories and let in swathes of Lib Dems in otherwise unwinnable seats?
I know, why are the BBC interviewing the leader of the party that got most votes on Thursday?
>
>
> The 2 leaders were chosen by the members in those countries. Corbyn didn't even really do anything to influence the results or the members.
>
> Corbyn is usually accused of being a Stalinist for letting members vote to make decisions, imagine he overruled or took away that right and installed people instead.
>
> The accusations about them being puppets chosen by central office would actually be true. You would be outraged. As would other English people who don't like Corbyn and never usually care otherwise...
>
> Plaid did well in the Euros but come a Westminster election I can't see them making much progress.
Yes, of course they were chosen by the membership - but it was made very clear who Momentum and the leadership were backing, much like the much maligned NEC slate. But therein lies the problem, members chose leaders mostly on their perceived loyalty to the leadership, rather than other qualities or a desire for a more independent voice. It's not the most dreadful idea in England - where Corbyn is ultimately effectively always on the ballot paper and where although unpopular in general, he has pockets of popularity and "meh, at least he's not a Tory". It's politically suicidal in devolved countries where leaders have to define themselves by picking fights with their national leadership when UK policy is going down badly in their backyard and with nominally 'progressive' nationalist alternatives. That's very, very complacent about Plaid - their new leader is very effective and look in with a real chance of coming top in the WA elex. We all know what happened in Scotland after the SNP took over as a party of devolved government.
An electoral pact wouldn’t just be ‘free tilt’ but explicitly mutual support. As you say, the Greens would get a free run at the relatively few seats where they have a strong interest (add the IOW to your list, and the other bits of Brighton) but there are plenty of seats where both of them have so little presence that giving the Greens a run wouldn’t cause the LibDems much grief.
> https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1132892361036640256?s=21
Too bad the Lib Dems were beaten by TBP in Maidenhead.
She is too talented to be Owen Smith mk2.
The obvious lesson the Tories will draw is that if they get us out, they will rally a big group of support behind them - probably enough to win an election given said fragmentation.
And that has to be good news - unfortunately - for leading Brexiteer candidates Gove and Johnson.
https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1132901549427056640
> Which seats do you forecast Lab gaining in the next GE?
>
> Lab in 5th place in Charnwood so unlikely to be gaining Loughborough. 5th in NW Leics too. 4th in N Warks, 5th in South Warks. 3rd even in Derby, home of Skeletor, behind the LDs.
>
>
>
> You may have noticed that was in the Euro elections rather than a General election, as well as being about different things they tend to have a slightly different turnout...
>
> I didn't forecast Labour gaining particular seats at the last election and yet we managed it regardless.
I think you are probably right, we are going to have to have major seat losses for Labour at the next GE to put an end to Corbynism. Shouldn't have long to wait.
It is becoming easier for anti-No Deal Tory voters to find someone to vote for, without letting Corbyn into number 10.
> Well.. the ;pollsters largely got it wrong did they, surprise surprise.
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> I have just been looking up the SE results, and I know I voted LD, but I have no idea who the LD candidate I voted for was, nor in fact any of the candidates, I just saw the LD logo and slapped my X there
Your LD MEPs:
Catherine Bearder
Elected as MEP for South East England in 2009. She was born in Hertfordshire and worked in the antique trade, as a zoological research assistant in Africa and latterly after children, in the voluntary sector with the Citizens Advice Bureau, Victim Support and National Federation of Women’s Institutes. She was a councillor on Cherwell District and Oxfordshire County Councils and parliamentary candidate for Banbury in 1997 and Henley in 2001.
She is President of the Green Liberal Democrats and has a special interest in biodiversity protection and fighting human trafficking.
Antony Hook
Antony moved to Kent during his childhood as his father sought new work during the economically difficult times of the 1980s. Both his parents worked in local public services and are now retired. He has one brother who does statistical work for an organisation that promotes excellence in education. After attending a local grammar school, Antony studied history at University College London, followed by law at City University and the Inns of Court School of Law. He completed his training at leading chambers (a group of barristers) in the capital. He uses the skills he has developed as an advocate and lawyer to help him stand up for Faversham as a councillor.
Judith Bunting
Before entering politics, Judith was a science journalist and TV producer at the BBC for more than 20 years, directing films on green energy for Tomorrow’s World and quantum physics for Horizon and Discovery. More recently, Judith was co-creator of Magic Hands, the CBeebies television series which is presented in British Sign Language. Judith studied Natural Sciences at Cambridge University. In 2017, she was selected by the Royal Society of Chemistry to be one of their 175 Faces of Chemistry. Judith has previously fought Newbury for the Liberal Democrats.
But I think it would be a good idea for them in principle.
> Which seats do you forecast Lab gaining in the next GE?
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> Lab in 5th place in Charnwood so unlikely to be gaining Loughborough. 5th in NW Leics too. 4th in N Warks, 5th in South Warks. 3rd even in Derby, home of Skeletor, behind the LDs.
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> You may have noticed that was in the Euro elections rather than a General election, as well as being about different things they tend to have a slightly different turnout...
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> I didn't forecast Labour gaining particular seats at the last election and yet we managed it regardless.
They did it last time because they looked like the only alternative to Theresa and her Brexiteers. They've lost that USP for ever and frankly without that the party under Corbyn hasn't got a snowball in Hell's chance of forming a government.