> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @JonWC said: > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky? > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer.
----- > I would be very lary either brexiteers or remainers trying to add up tallies to justify their position. > > Euro election had 51% turnout, EU referendum had 80%+ turnout, that's a fact. I would bet that leavers would be less likely to vote in the euro election than remainers, indeed wasn't turnout in leave areas turbout was the same while remain areas went up, albeit slightly.
==========
The way to find out if THIS election delivered an overall Remain result is to ask voters in an opinion poll: Did you vote? Do you support Remain or Leave? I'm sure someone will do that.
Since summer 2017 there has been a small Remain majority in polls. These have about 5% Don't knows, but an actual referendum won't get 95% turnout. So there will be differential turnout. Question is whether Remainers or Leavers are more motivated.
Although this Euro election probably had a significant Remain majority, it is logical to assume people who think we should have left already would sit on their hands. They might not so so in a second referendum.
A second referendum is likely to be less hypothetical than the first, if there is a choice between Remain and specific Leave outcomes. The available outcomes are May's Deal redux and No Deal chaos, both of which are problematic. This should help Remain.
Winning a second referendum is by no means certain for Remain, but their initial problem is actually getting the second referendum.
At this stage I'd much rather have a Lib Dem PM and end up stuck in the EU for good, than out and with the Corbyn cult in charge.
I don't care what happens to the Tories one way or the other, just so long as Labour is destroyed - or, failing that, so weakened that it can never wield power on its own again.
From that point of view, more power to the Brexit Party's arm in the Peterborough by-election. If they can do an SNP to Labour in the strong Leave areas come the next GE, then Labour as a majoritarian party is done.
Have some sympathy for both the Labour and Conservative parties. We are used to political dividing lines being economic ones. Tax, public or private, even social ones like the individual vs the collective.
The trouble is Brexit completely cuts across that divide like a scythe. I think politically you can divide people into roughly 4 groups. Conservative/socialist/liberal/nationalist. If people want the political divide to be about Leave/Remain then all the other stuff has to be parked at the side - for now at least.
Any talk of coming to a different deal with the EU is a pipe dream, May's deal is it. So it will come down to No Deal or Revoke, either via parliament or more likely via a second vote. It will take a brave Tory to go to the country on No Deal looking at those figures last night. The main caveat being that 62% didn't vote so we don't really know what they will do given th No Deal v Revoke choice.
> @brokenwheel said: > The Australian Labor Party has elected leftwinger Anthony Albanese unopposed to succeed Bill Shorten as Labor leader following its recent election defeat > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-48362272 > > Doubling down on the culture wars...
Is he hard left?? if so another defeat will beckon...
> @not_on_fire said: > Privately I suspect Farage is feeling slightly disappointed in these results. 30% was probably the bottom end of his expectations. It's certainly a lot less than 52%.
If Farage were the sole face of Brexit in 2016, Leave would not have got close to 52%. There's plenty who want Brexit - but not Farage.
Just a bit of fun....if all the CUK votes were added to the LibDem tally:
NE: LDs +1 MEP, BXP -1 Yorks: no change NW: no change W Mids: no change Wales: no change E Mids: no change SW: no change SE: LDs +1, Lab -1 Lon: no change East: no change Scotland: LDs +1, Tory -1
Revised seats: BXP 28, LD 19, Lab 9, Green 7, Con 3, SNP 3, PC 1
And if LibDem, CUK and Green votes are all combined:
NE: +1 from BXP as above (reversed if UKIP combined with BXP) Yorks: no change NW: no change W Mids: +1 from the Tories (seat goes to BXP instead with UKIP+BXP) Wales: no change E Mids: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP) SW: no change SE: +1 from Lab as above Lon: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP) East: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP) Scotland: +1 from Tory as above
Revised seats: LD/Green 30, BXP 25, Lab 9, Con 2, SNP 3, PC 1
(or BXP/UKIP 30, LD/Green 25, Lab 9, Con 2, SNP 3, PC 1)
> @HYUFD said: > > What is interesting was how last night we moved to North American or French politics in the UK with a populist, socially conservative, largely rural and market town right-wing party and a liberal largely metropolitan party comprising the top 2. > > If the Tories do not deliver Brexit and Labour do not openly oppose Brexit that is where we could be heading
Or - and I know it's a radical idea - how about political parties delivering policies that actually deliver for the rural and market towns inhabitants rather than leaving them to rot? Brexit is only the denouement of the utter disdain that these voters feel they are held in. And when Brexit makes them even worse off than they are now then what?
The fundamental p4oblem facing both your party and mine is that both are "fuck business".
A Labour Leaver (in the North, Wales or wherever) either feels passionately about Brexit (in which case they move to the Brexit Party and are lost anyway) or they don't feel passionately and continue to vote tribal Labour. So some Labour Leavers are lost anyway.
But if Labour move to an explicit pro-Remain position, they are likely to retain those Labour voters who are passionate Remainers who might otherwise be tempted to move to the LibDems (as last night's results demonstrated,)
Privately I suspect Farage is feeling slightly disappointed in these results. 30% was probably the bottom end of his expectations. It's certainly a lot less than 52%.
TBP are the largest party in the European Parliament.
> @JonWC said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @JonWC said: > > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky? > > > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward > > Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer.
You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal
Privately I suspect Farage is feeling slightly disappointed in these results. 30% was probably the bottom end of his expectations. It's certainly a lot less than 52%.
TBP are the largest party in the European Parliament.
How bloody awful for them.
Sure, they benefitted from the Remain vote being split multiple ways. Good for them. But this certainly isn't a full-on endorsement for Farage, and I think you know it.
Mr. Booth, the opposite of liberal is authoritarian, not nationalist.
To elaborate upon your main point, with which I agree, economic differences can be gradual (a few percentage points on or off tax here and there) but the divides on the EU matter are rather starker.
> @MJW said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > > > > The 2 leaders were chosen by the members in those countries. Corbyn didn't even really do anything to influence the results or the members. > > > > Corbyn is usually accused of being a Stalinist for letting members vote to make decisions, imagine he overruled or took away that right and installed people instead. > > > > The accusations about them being puppets chosen by central office would actually be true. You would be outraged. As would other English people who don't like Corbyn and never usually care otherwise... > > > > Plaid did well in the Euros but come a Westminster election I can't see them making much progress. > > Yes, of course they were chosen by the membership - but it was made very clear who Momentum and the leadership were backing, much like the much maligned NEC slate. But therein lies the problem, members chose leaders mostly on their perceived loyalty to the leadership, rather than other qualities or a desire for a more independent voice. It's not the most dreadful idea in England - where Corbyn is ultimately effectively always on the ballot paper and where although unpopular in general, he has pockets of popularity and "meh, at least he's not a Tory". It's politically suicidal in devolved countries where leaders have to define themselves by picking fights with their national leadership when UK policy is going down badly in their backyard and with nominally 'progressive' nationalist alternatives. That's very, very complacent about Plaid - their new leader is very effective and look in with a real chance of coming top in the WA elex. We all know what happened in Scotland after the SNP took over as a party of devolved government.
The Brexit Party are top in the latest Welsh Assembly poll and the Brexit Party were comfortably top in Wales last night, well ahead of Plaid in second
Those adding pro and anti Brexit parties together really should be adding the Tory vote to the anti pile. That, after all, is their policy. Where you add Labour is less clear since no one ever worked out what their policy was.
Looking forward it seems inevitable that the Tories have to go to the 30 %+ held by the Brexit Party. Its not going to be easy and May's failure to deliver is going to be an issue but their road ahead is clear, if difficult. Labour's path is more difficult. Why would those that appreciated the sophistication and detailed analysis of Bollocks to Brexit want to hear what even a new leader of the Labour Party had to say? The Green share might be a softer target and they are vulnerable to the wasted vote argument in much, if not all, of the country.
If I am right about the targeting both of what used to be the major parties will want leaders who appeal to those they are seeking to win. Greens are more left wing and authoritarian in their outlook than Corbyn himself so Labour may have it easier in this respect but they have to watch their champagne socialist wing who might find the Lib Dems attractive.
About the only thing I can see that saves the Tories is actually delivering Brexit and moving on to other issues. If they don't (and it is not entirely in their power) last night was only the hors d'oeuvres of a world of pain.
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @not_on_fire said: > > Privately I suspect Farage is feeling slightly disappointed in these results. 30% was probably the bottom end of his expectations. It's certainly a lot less than 52%. > > If Farage were the sole face of Brexit in 2016, Leave would not have got close to 52%. There's plenty who want Brexit - but not Farage.
Exactly. Maybe a remain v no deal referendum is worth the risk after all?
55% 45% No to independence in Scotland produced an SNP landslide in Scotland at the next general election, 55% 45% Remain in the UK would produce a Brexit Party landslide under FPTP at the next general election I suspect based on last night's results
> @not_on_fire said: > Privately I suspect Farage is feeling slightly disappointed in these results. 30% was probably the bottom end of his expectations. It's certainly a lot less than 52%.
Farage retains his MEP salary. Job done. Also his Brexit Party received 3/4 million more votes than UKIP in 2014 - that makes winning seats in a Westminster election that much more likely (starting in Peterborough I guess, which would be the first MP he'd won that wasn't from a defection).
While coming in just under one third of the vote might be a little disappointing the winning margin is currently 11.3% - surely that's hitting it out of the park? Indeed the UK figures may end up with the Farage Party the only one in the 30s and the nearest challenger in the high teens - with nothing in the 20s. Psychologically that makes the winning gap look more like a chasm.
> @brokenwheel said: > The Australian Labor Party has elected leftwinger Anthony Albanese unopposed to succeed Bill Shorten as Labor leader following its recent election defeat > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-48362272 > > Doubling down on the culture wars...
Is he hard left?? if so another defeat will beckon...
Yep. Though currently he seems to be doing his best to play it down, he's very much a ideologue.
Surely also UKIP and the CUKs have fought their last national elections. The demise of both seems very likely to boost the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems respectively. Can't see much for the former major parties there either.
> @hamiltonace said: > The most interesting thing that will come out of Scotland in the next month or two is the policy taken by Ruth Davidson. The Scottish tories kept their MEP and got more vote share than English tories but don’t expect her to be happy with this. > > A well managed brexit that gets the fish back but keeps us in a customs union with freedom of movement is the objective. A no deal Brexit that triggers an independence referendum the worst outcome.
=======
Conservatives in Scotland peeled off to the BP in roughly the same proportion to those in England - to my surprise.
Interesting parallel with the Tory Party in England now and the Tory Party as it lost Scotland in the 1980s. Johnson, Raab and Hunt are in danger of losing their seats to the Lib Dems, but double down on the rhetoric, just as their Scottish colleagues did as they lost their seats.
Oh and edit. The fish are a lost cause. Too many EU countries want to maintain the status quo to budge on that, even if they had warm feelings to their UK counterparts and wanted to help them out.
> @RochdalePioneers said: > What is truly fascinating is seeing the three way split of parties. We have Leave parties, Remain parties, and then we have ConLab. The country is divided between Leave and Remain, and if you try and do both you get fucked. > > We know what the Tories are going to do - they are going to go hard leave and try to out-compete Farage for the angry vote. In doimg so they will lose a proportion of their party/voters who find tbis reprehensible. The Tory party of old is dead. > > We don't know what Labour are going to do. We cannot try and punt for the same angry vote as BXP/Boris. That vote doesn't trust us. We definitely can't sit on the fence any longer. Which only leaves pivoting to remain and forging a progressive alliance with LD/Green/CHUMPS. > > Witness the death and rebirth of the LibDems. They died with Vince Cable one of the chief architects of their death. They were reborn with Vince Cable the chief architects of their resurrection. How? Because the electorate who Absolutely Pledged never to vote for them again on 2015 is voting for them again in 2019 having found the LDs in the fight place as political tides shift. Labour could do the same. > > The Tories will now fracture. Their centre right cannot accept what they logically have to do. Just as the majority of the Labour Party cannot stomach Corbyns bullshit over Europe. It's fine for cancer supporters like Bastani and Jezziah to attack the body for the temerity of denouncing cancer, but we must do so, or cancer wins as the body dies. > > Fuck Corbyn. It's on.
If Corbyn refuses to budge and Thornberry triggers a leader election over the summer on the Brexit issue, with support from Starmer, Watson and many more including even possibly McDonnell (with the promise of remaining Shadow Chancellor), - who will win? If it's Thornberry and she is in place by end September to match the new Tory PM facing a VONC, what is the consequence?
> > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
> >
> > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
>
> Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer.
You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal
> @Barnesian said: > > @RochdalePioneers said: > > What is truly fascinating is seeing the three way split of parties. We have Leave parties, Remain parties, and then we have ConLab. The country is divided between Leave and Remain, and if you try and do both you get fucked. > > > > We know what the Tories are going to do - they are going to go hard leave and try to out-compete Farage for the angry vote. In doimg so they will lose a proportion of their party/voters who find tbis reprehensible. The Tory party of old is dead. > > > > We don't know what Labour are going to do. We cannot try and punt for the same angry vote as BXP/Boris. That vote doesn't trust us. We definitely can't sit on the fence any longer. Which only leaves pivoting to remain and forging a progressive alliance with LD/Green/CHUMPS. > > > > Witness the death and rebirth of the LibDems. They died with Vince Cable one of the chief architects of their death. They were reborn with Vince Cable the chief architects of their resurrection. How? Because the electorate who Absolutely Pledged never to vote for them again on 2015 is voting for them again in 2019 having found the LDs in the fight place as political tides shift. Labour could do the same. > > > > The Tories will now fracture. Their centre right cannot accept what they logically have to do. Just as the majority of the Labour Party cannot stomach Corbyns bullshit over Europe. It's fine for cancer supporters like Bastani and Jezziah to attack the body for the temerity of denouncing cancer, but we must do so, or cancer wins as the body dies. > > > > Fuck Corbyn. It's on. > > If Corbyn refuses to budge and Thornberry triggers a leader election over the summer on the Brexit issue, with support from Starmer, Watson and many more including even possibly McDonnell (with the promise of remaining Shadow Chancellor), - who will win? If it's Thornberry and she is in place by end September to match the new Tory PM facing a VONC, what is the consequence?
Unless legislation stopping no deal is tabled by the government we no deal on the 31st October. Inertia is the friend of brexiteer no deal supporters
Although specifically about the Greens, it'll affect other parties too. Normally blue voters wanting to kick the Conservatives up the arse, lefties who'll drift back to Labour at a General Election but want to signal they want another vote, etc.
> @JonWC said: > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
************************************************************************************ As responsible MPs, with their constituents interests at heart, they vote to keep No Deal off the ballot paper in case their constituents self harm.
> @Charles said: > > @JonWC said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @JonWC said: > > > > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky? > > > > > > > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward > > > > > > Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer. > > > > You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal > > Why do the Remainers get another go?
I wonder if the Greens and Lib Dems will consider a pact at the next General Election with the Greens having an unencumbered run at
Bristol West
Bristol North West
Norwich South
Sheffield Central
In return for the Lib Dems having a Green free tilt at other targets ?
You wonder how much that would help them, though. My very strong impression is that the Greens and Liberal Democrats attract very different sorts of voters and if they were interested in switching, they already would have done.
An electoral alliance between them could be very powerful. Whilst explicitly short term until PR, the two parties could easily secure a common agreement prioritising political reform, opposition to Brexit, and primacy of environmental policy. Such an approach could recapture many of the young (who were the emerging LibDem constituency pre-Clegg) from Corbyn.
An electoral pact wouldn’t just be ‘free tilt’ but explicitly mutual support. As you say, the Greens would get a free run at the relatively few seats where they have a strong interest (add the IOW to your list, and the other bits of Brighton) but there are plenty of seats where both of them have so little presence that giving the Greens a run wouldn’t cause the LibDems much grief.
Any leavers not in the Conservative party have largely been absent from the debate for the last few years with only the ERG Spartans holding the line.
Some here are going to be apoplectic about it, but now that TBP are the largest party in the European parliament expect to see a lot more of them in the media. The tone of the debate is likely to shift considerably from where it has been up til now.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @JonWC said: > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky? > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
There is the WDA which is still on offer from the EU. It's a real explicit transition deal unlike "No Deal" which varies from sod'em walk away and pay no money to managed departure on WTO terms (which needs some EU cooperation).
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Mr. L, but if you add the Conservative score to the Leave column it'd be bigger than the Remain column. That can't be right.
------
There were probably more Labour Remain votes than Conservative Leave votes last week, although we can't be sure. Adding Conservatives to Leave, but not Labour to Remain doesn't make sense.
That would put Labour 37 short of a majority - Baxter leads to the immolation of the Tories in Scotland (but from yesterday that may not happen) so an SNP clean sweep of Scotland may be unlikely. The Lib Dems put on 20 to 55 and Farage gets two seats, the Greens one. So Lib-Lab definite possibility but Con-BXP not remotely close.
Here's my proposal for uniting the country: A referendum with all realistic options included eg: -No deal Brexit -May's deal Brexit -May's deal plus permanent Customs Union Brexit -Customs Union+Single Market Brexit -Revoke and No Brexit
Everybody gets to vote against as many options as they strongly oppose. The option with the least opposition wins. That way we get the option that the most people can live with (even if it's not their first choice), and we can all get on with our lives. While avoiding any complicated runoffs or transfers etc
Question something like "which of the following do you strongly oppose?"
or maybe frame it positively: "Which of the following could you live with, even if it's not your first choice?" (choose as many as you like)
> @RochdalePioneers said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > What is interesting was how last night we moved to North American or French politics in the UK with a populist, socially conservative, largely rural and market town right-wing party and a liberal largely metropolitan party comprising the top 2. > > > > If the Tories do not deliver Brexit and Labour do not openly oppose Brexit that is where we could be heading > > Or - and I know it's a radical idea - how about political parties delivering policies that actually deliver for the rural and market towns inhabitants rather than leaving them to rot? Brexit is only the denouement of the utter disdain that these voters feel they are held in. And when Brexit makes them even worse off than they are now then what? > > The fundamental p4oblem facing both your party and mine is that both are "fuck business".
Being more pro small business maybe, being too pro big business is what has driven the populist surge in the first place
> > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
> >
> > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
>
> Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer.
You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal
I mean I know no one (not even remainers) really cares but does anyone have a good summary of how the rest of the EU voted last night? I thought that the BBC coverage was incredibly parochial given the nature of the election.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @Charles said: > > > @JonWC said: > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > @JonWC said: > > > > > > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky? > > > > > > > > > > > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward > > > > > > > > > > Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer. > > > > > > > > You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal > > > > Why do the Remainers get another go? > > I do not think they should to be fair
We need a route out of the cul de sac he Leavers have taken us down. They have had their chance time and time again to Brexit, it have flunked it, By their own actions they have revived Remain as a viable way out.
Luton is the only local authority counting area in the whole of the East of England region that delivered a plurality for Labour. They were routed in both Cambridge and Norwich. Luton is, of course, wholly exceptional in the context of this region, for reasons that don't require repetition.
> @Barnesian said: > > @Garza said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1132912987533119488 > > > > Goodbye the North and Wales. Hello London Labour Party. > *************************************************************************** > > A Labour Leaver (in the North, Wales or wherever) either feels passionately about Brexit (in which case they move to the Brexit Party and are lost anyway) or they don't feel passionately and continue to vote tribal Labour. So some Labour Leavers are lost anyway. > > But if Labour move to an explicit pro-Remain position, they are likely to retain those Labour voters who are passionate Remainers who might otherwise be tempted to move to the LibDems (as last night's results demonstrated,) >
And if Labour moved to a pro leave position they would no doubt get all those voters back in Wales and the North again.
Its a difficult decision for Labour, I can't really blame them trying to ride the two donkeys at once, but oen donkey has veered off to TBP and the other to LD.
> > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
> >
> > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
>
> Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer.
You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal
Why do the Remainers get another go?
Because the Brexiteers have forfeited theirs.
17.4m votes to leave. Their decision has not been implemented
> @DavidL said: > Those adding pro and anti Brexit parties together really should be adding the Tory vote to the anti pile. That, after all, is their policy. Where you add Labour is less clear since no one ever worked out what their policy was. > > Looking forward it seems inevitable that the Tories have to go to the 30 %+ held by the Brexit Party. Its not going to be easy and May's failure to deliver is going to be an issue but their road ahead is clear, if difficult. Labour's path is more difficult. Why would those that appreciated the sophistication and detailed analysis of Bollocks to Brexit want to hear what even a new leader of the Labour Party had to say? The Green share might be a softer target and they are vulnerable to the wasted vote argument in much, if not all, of the country. > > If I am right about the targeting both of what used to be the major parties will want leaders who appeal to those they are seeking to win. Greens are more left wing and authoritarian in their outlook than Corbyn himself so Labour may have it easier in this respect but they have to watch their champagne socialist wing who might find the Lib Dems attractive. > > About the only thing I can see that saves the Tories is actually delivering Brexit and moving on to other issues. If they don't (and it is not entirely in their power) last night was only the hors d'oeuvres of a world of pain.
========
Put simply, before the Brexit referendum, the Tories were riding high. After it they crashed and burned. This looks doubling down on failure to me.
> @Barnesian said: > > @JonWC said: > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky? > > ************************************************************************************ > As responsible MPs, with their constituents interests at heart, they vote to keep No Deal off the ballot paper in case their constituents self harm.
Indeed why even let the plebs vote at all. Just let their "betters" decide what is best for them. Oligarchy forever!
> @Foxy said: > > @JackW said: > > Whilst we have to be mindful not to directly transfer the Euro result to a general election it has to be said that the LibDems look poised to give arch Conservative brexiteer Anne Main in St. Albans constituency a most uncomfortable time. > > > > How I stop the yellow peril invading rural Harpenden is a tricky one !! > > > > St Albans and District. > > > > The Conservatives trailed the Green Party in fourth place with Labour in fifth, a few hundred votes ahead of Change UK. > > > > The results are as follows: > > > > Change UK - The Independent Group 2,235 > > Conservative and Unionist Party 4,583 > > English Democrats 171 > > Green Party 6,010 > > Labour Party 2,752 > > Liberal Democrats 22,232 > > The Brexit Party 10,590 > > UK Independence Party (UKIP) 717 > > Csordas, Attila 68 > > Not just St Albans, but throughtout the Home Counties there were strong LD performances. > > The BBC map by party is pretty good. > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48417228
Yes, that map is worth some study (except for the CUK tab which is completely white).
The LibDem strength is broadly Inner London and the M3, M4, M11 and M40 corridors, plus the Lake District and a pretty strong performance throughout the Home Counties.
The Green performance is remarkably even, with a handful of standout results in Lancaster, Bristol & Bath, South Devon, Sheffield, Brighton and Oxbridge.
Labour held on best in the North West, South Wales, and parts of E and W London
The Tories' Isle of Athelney looks like being Dumfries and Galloway. Otherwise their performance was evenly poor (and as good in Scotland as England) but with particular areas of weakness being the usual urban North, North East, Wales and London, as well as Kent/Essex and the South West.
Plaid did best in rural mid Wales as usual, but is also building support in Cardiff and the Rhondda. The SNP did well across Scotland with a small area of relative underperformance in the Borders.
The Brexit Party did well across most of England, excepting London, the M11 corridor, university towns and some of the Northern cities.
1 Remain parties clearly ahead of Leave parties and if you add Labour to remain and the Tories to leave (yes I know the caveats) then remain even further ahead.
2 Labour will now move to a remain and reform position, if the leadership do not move then their hand will be forced by the party conference, but I think they will move.
3 There is no majority for a no deal exit, if a new Tory PM tries to leave without a deal Tory rebels will be able to say they have the public on their side when they act to prevent it and winning a general election or referendum for a no deal exit looks a very tall order.
4 So the possibility of a no deal exit has been diminished by yesterday's results. And if the choice is now no deal or no Brexit then no Brexit looks more likely than ever.
> @ydoethur said: > What idiot sent Steve Baker out to front for the Tories rather than locking him in an oubliette of some description? > > Pompous, hypocritical and stupid.
No way to talk about the man who if he makes it to the final 2 will be our next PM
> @TheJezziah said: > I think there is likely to be around 100 SNP/LD/PC/Green MPs after the next GE, perhaps 150. > > > > The next Parliament is going to be very well hung. > > Right... but the Labour party gaining seats is unrealistic? > > If you look at actual realistic target seats (maybe within 5k?) but let's say the SNP get their 2015 total. > > Without checking I am not sure that gets you to 100. that is about 56 for the SNP. 1 for the Greens. 4 for Plaid. Have the Lib Dems got 39 targets within 5k?
Here is question for Corbynites - what on earth is the point of Corbyn if he cannot get a majority?
In any coalition with Corbyn Labour we would have broadly centre left politics. But the reason Labour don't embrace vote winning centre left politics is because momentum et al want pure Corbynism. It cannot be delivered without a majority. All Corbynism does is increase the chance of a no deal extremist Tory/Brexit government.
Just a bit of fun....if all the CUK votes were added to the LibDem tally:
NE: LDs +1 MEP, BXP -1
Yorks: no change
NW: no change
W Mids: no change
Wales: no change
E Mids: no change
SW: no change
SE: LDs +1, Lab -1
Lon: no change
East: no change
Scotland: LDs +1, Tory -1
Revised seats: BXP 28, LD 19, Lab 9, Green 7, Con 3, SNP 3, PC 1
And if LibDem, CUK and Green votes are all combined:
NE: +1 from BXP as above (reversed if UKIP combined with BXP)
Yorks: no change
NW: no change
W Mids: +1 from the Tories (seat goes to BXP instead with UKIP+BXP)
Wales: no change
E Mids: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP)
SW: no change
SE: +1 from Lab as above
Lon: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP)
East: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP)
Scotland: +1 from Tory as above
Revised seats: LD/Green 30, BXP 25, Lab 9, Con 2, SNP 3, PC 1
(or BXP/UKIP 30, LD/Green 25, Lab 9, Con 2, SNP 3, PC 1)
Interesting, an Alliance would not have helped much under Dehondt.
Shows the D'Hondt system works well by rendering the "wasted votes" argument against smaller parties redundant. Think how much better our politics would be if we had it at Westminster.
> @DavidL said: > I mean I know no one (not even remainers) really cares but does anyone have a good summary of how the rest of the EU voted last night? I thought that the BBC coverage was incredibly parochial given the nature of the election.
EPP still largest bloc but smaller groupings have done much better. More fragmented parliament as a result.
Some people will object to this but it's shrewd imo. This is the only election BXP will ever fight without a current or part policy platform. They're going to have to come up with some policies and next time there's a national vote they can actually get some proper scrutiny that isn't about their funding or Farage's weird history. BXP will be revealed to be an unstable coalition of far-right illiberals, misguided globalisers, nativists, anti-establishment types, Country Lifers, disaster capitalists, libertarians, and baldy immigrant baiters.
The only hope of keeping them together is to say absolutely nothing about anything other than Brexit. Because like the original leave vote, such a mix is to fissile to withstand anything other than a single policy. But failing to produce policies for a domestic election will not be tolerated by the wider public.
> @bigjohnowls said: > > @ydoethur said: > > What idiot sent Steve Baker out to front for the Tories rather than locking him in an oubliette of some description? > > > > Pompous, hypocritical and stupid. > > No way to talk about the man who if he makes it to the final 2 will be our next PM
It is possible that today that you might as it that Corbyn May have got thing slightly wrong this time?
> @Charles said: > > @JonWC said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @JonWC said: > > > > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky? > > > > > > > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward > > > > > > Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer. > > > > You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal > > Why do the Remainers get another go? > > Because the Brexiteers have forfeited theirs. > > 17.4m votes to leave. Their decision has not been implemented
That's what comes of deciding to go on holiday without having a clue where.
> @anothernick said: > My takeaways from the results: > > 1 Remain parties clearly ahead of Leave parties and if you add Labour to remain and the Tories to leave (yes I know the caveats) then remain even further ahead. > > 2 Labour will now move to a remain and reform position, if the leadership do not move then their hand will be forced by the party conference, but I think they will move. > > 3 There is no majority for a no deal exit, if a new Tory PM tries to leave without a deal Tory rebels will be able to say they have the public on their side when they act to prevent it and winning a general election or referendum for a no deal exit looks a very tall order. > > 4 So the possibility of a no deal exit has been diminished by yesterday's results. And if the choice is now no deal or no Brexit then no Brexit looks more likely than ever.
I am not so confident that this takes no deal off the table. If anything I think it makes it much more likely.
> @HYUFD said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > Next up, Peterborough ! > > > > The result tonight in Peterborough: > > > > BRX 38.3% > > Lab 17.2% > > LD 15.4% > > Con 10.9% > > Green 10.8% > > UKIP 3.6% > > CHUK 3.0% > > Looks like the Brexit Party will comfortably win the Peterborough by election on Thursday week on those numbers then
The Brexit Party in Westminster. Well done, MPs. Looking over your shoulders yet?
> @Charles said: > > @JonWC said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @JonWC said: > > > > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky? > > > > > > > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward > > > > > > Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer. > > > > You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal > > Why do the Remainers get another go? > > Because the Brexiteers have forfeited theirs. > > 17.4m votes to leave. Their decision has not been implemented
They have had a decent bite at the cherry, not anyone’s else fault they couldn’t agree how to do it.
> @DavidL said: > I mean I know no one (not even remainers) really cares but does anyone have a good summary of how the rest of the EU voted last night? I thought that the BBC coverage was incredibly parochial given the nature of the election.
----------------
The Guardian has good coverage of the overall EU results. Broadly smallish change. The Greens and centrist parties have benefited at the expense of the socialists and conservatives. The populists have stayed still.
> @DavidL said: > I mean I know no one (not even remainers) really cares but does anyone have a good summary of how the rest of the EU voted last night? I thought that the BBC coverage was incredibly parochial given the nature of the election.
Think headlines are:
No far-right surge (they did well in some countries, went backwards in others)
Centre-right and centre-left groupings lose their combined majority in the Parliament
The liberal and non-Marxist Green groups did well, and should have a greater say now that the aforementioned grand coalition requires their support
Overall increase in turnout across EU
Brexit Party and German CDU now the two largest national party delegations
Socialists won in Spain; far-right Vox did poorly
Lega Nord were top party in Italy
Le Pen's party won a plurality in France, but only just ahead of Macron's
Record vote shares for Sweden Democrats, and Law and Justice in Poland
Orban's party wins absolutely majority of all votes cast in Hungary
Collapse of far-right in Denmark, attributed (according to your bias) to Danes rejecting their manifest awfulness, or the ruling centre-left adopting their immigration policies
> @Charles said: > > @JonWC said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @JonWC said: > > > > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky? > > > > > > > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward > > > > > > Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer. > > > > You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal > > Why do the Remainers get another go?
Because it's not a game but an important decision. If people don't confirm they want to move from where we are, then that is where we stay.
> @TGOHF said: > I’m not sure this election changes the dynamics much. > > MPs will block Halloween Brexit - they simply hate the voters and don't care about the voters or their parties future.
If Parliament votes to stop a No Deal Brexit it is clear that they will have the backing of at least 60% of those that voted yesterday.
Let's not pretend that Farage's 31% on a 38% turnout represents a tidal wave of support for a No Deal Brexit.
Two clear findings from the vote. 1. There is a CLEAR majority for Remain however you look at the results 2. Corbyn has to go. He has shown himself unfit to be leader and with him in charge Labour have zero chance of forming a government.
I'm not sure I would go so far as to say this shows a clear majority for Remain. What it does definitely show is (a) Remainers are more motivated at this moment and (b) their vote is being fragmented among several parties.
The obvious lesson the Tories will draw is that if they get us out, they will rally a big group of support behind them - probably enough to win an election given said fragmentation.
And that has to be good news - unfortunately - for leading Brexiteer candidates Gove and Johnson.
Except they have no path to getting us out. Parliament will not pass any deal, the Tories wont pass a referendum, so only no deal thanks to Macron can be delivered unless you think they can win a GE on a no deal platform.
They're more screwed than labour as they have no options unless the EU has been bluffing for 3 years. It doesnt even matter if more labour mps are now scared to vote for the deal, since more Tories will not vote for it because of BXP .
Comments
"Not just St Albans, but throughtout the Home Counties there were strong LD performances.
The BBC map by party is pretty good."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48417228
...........................................................................
Don't remind me .....
It may well be in part the popularity of the local mayor and MPs
> > @JonWC said:
> > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
>
> Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer.
-----
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968
>
-----
> I would be very lary either brexiteers or remainers trying to add up tallies to justify their position.
>
> Euro election had 51% turnout, EU referendum had 80%+ turnout, that's a fact. I would bet that leavers would be less likely to vote in the euro election than remainers, indeed wasn't turnout in leave areas turbout was the same while remain areas went up, albeit slightly.
==========
The way to find out if THIS election delivered an overall Remain result is to ask voters in an opinion poll: Did you vote? Do you support Remain or Leave? I'm sure someone will do that.
Since summer 2017 there has been a small Remain majority in polls. These have about 5% Don't knows, but an actual referendum won't get 95% turnout. So there will be differential turnout. Question is whether Remainers or Leavers are more motivated.
Although this Euro election probably had a significant Remain majority, it is logical to assume people who think we should have left already would sit on their hands. They might not so so in a second referendum.
A second referendum is likely to be less hypothetical than the first, if there is a choice between Remain and specific Leave outcomes. The available outcomes are May's Deal redux and No Deal chaos, both of which are problematic. This should help Remain.
Winning a second referendum is by no means certain for Remain, but their initial problem is actually getting the second referendum.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1132912987533119488
>
> Goodbye the North and Wales. Hello London Labour Party.
One can but hope.
At this stage I'd much rather have a Lib Dem PM and end up stuck in the EU for good, than out and with the Corbyn cult in charge.
I don't care what happens to the Tories one way or the other, just so long as Labour is destroyed - or, failing that, so weakened that it can never wield power on its own again.
From that point of view, more power to the Brexit Party's arm in the Peterborough by-election. If they can do an SNP to Labour in the strong Leave areas come the next GE, then Labour as a majoritarian party is done.
Pay up those billions so your London betters can have cheaper lattes doesn’t sound like a winning formula.
And how are they going to vote in Parliament to get a referendum?
The trouble is Brexit completely cuts across that divide like a scythe. I think politically you can divide people into roughly 4 groups. Conservative/socialist/liberal/nationalist. If people want the political divide to be about Leave/Remain then all the other stuff has to be parked at the side - for now at least.
So it will come down to No Deal or Revoke, either via parliament or more likely via a second vote. It will take a brave Tory to go to the country on No Deal looking at those figures last night. The main caveat being that 62% didn't vote so we don't really know what they will do given th No Deal v Revoke choice.
> The Australian Labor Party has elected leftwinger Anthony Albanese unopposed to succeed Bill Shorten as Labor leader following its recent election defeat
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-48362272
>
> Doubling down on the culture wars...
Is he hard left?? if so another defeat will beckon...
> Privately I suspect Farage is feeling slightly disappointed in these results. 30% was probably the bottom end of his expectations. It's certainly a lot less than 52%.
If Farage were the sole face of Brexit in 2016, Leave would not have got close to 52%. There's plenty who want Brexit - but not Farage.
NE: LDs +1 MEP, BXP -1
Yorks: no change
NW: no change
W Mids: no change
Wales: no change
E Mids: no change
SW: no change
SE: LDs +1, Lab -1
Lon: no change
East: no change
Scotland: LDs +1, Tory -1
Revised seats: BXP 28, LD 19, Lab 9, Green 7, Con 3, SNP 3, PC 1
And if LibDem, CUK and Green votes are all combined:
NE: +1 from BXP as above (reversed if UKIP combined with BXP)
Yorks: no change
NW: no change
W Mids: +1 from the Tories (seat goes to BXP instead with UKIP+BXP)
Wales: no change
E Mids: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP)
SW: no change
SE: +1 from Lab as above
Lon: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP)
East: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP)
Scotland: +1 from Tory as above
Revised seats: LD/Green 30, BXP 25, Lab 9, Con 2, SNP 3, PC 1
(or BXP/UKIP 30, LD/Green 25, Lab 9, Con 2, SNP 3, PC 1)
>
> What is interesting was how last night we moved to North American or French politics in the UK with a populist, socially conservative, largely rural and market town right-wing party and a liberal largely metropolitan party comprising the top 2.
>
> If the Tories do not deliver Brexit and Labour do not openly oppose Brexit that is where we could be heading
Or - and I know it's a radical idea - how about political parties delivering policies that actually deliver for the rural and market towns inhabitants rather than leaving them to rot? Brexit is only the denouement of the utter disdain that these voters feel they are held in. And when Brexit makes them even worse off than they are now then what?
The fundamental p4oblem facing both your party and mine is that both are "fuck business".
> Just a bit of fun, but if you Baxter these results, TBP wins 443 seats.
Yes, Brexit Party landslide if these results were repeated at the next general election under FPTP and Tory wipeout
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1132912987533119488
>
> Goodbye the North and Wales. Hello London Labour Party.
***************************************************************************
A Labour Leaver (in the North, Wales or wherever) either feels passionately about Brexit (in which case they move to the Brexit Party and are lost anyway) or they don't feel passionately and continue to vote tribal Labour. So some Labour Leavers are lost anyway.
But if Labour move to an explicit pro-Remain position, they are likely to retain those Labour voters who are passionate Remainers who might otherwise be tempted to move to the LibDems (as last night's results demonstrated,)
How bloody awful for them.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @JonWC said:
> > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
> >
> > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
>
> Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer.
You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal
To elaborate upon your main point, with which I agree, economic differences can be gradual (a few percentage points on or off tax here and there) but the divides on the EU matter are rather starker.
> > @TheJezziah said:
> >
> >
> > The 2 leaders were chosen by the members in those countries. Corbyn didn't even really do anything to influence the results or the members.
> >
> > Corbyn is usually accused of being a Stalinist for letting members vote to make decisions, imagine he overruled or took away that right and installed people instead.
> >
> > The accusations about them being puppets chosen by central office would actually be true. You would be outraged. As would other English people who don't like Corbyn and never usually care otherwise...
> >
> > Plaid did well in the Euros but come a Westminster election I can't see them making much progress.
>
> Yes, of course they were chosen by the membership - but it was made very clear who Momentum and the leadership were backing, much like the much maligned NEC slate. But therein lies the problem, members chose leaders mostly on their perceived loyalty to the leadership, rather than other qualities or a desire for a more independent voice. It's not the most dreadful idea in England - where Corbyn is ultimately effectively always on the ballot paper and where although unpopular in general, he has pockets of popularity and "meh, at least he's not a Tory". It's politically suicidal in devolved countries where leaders have to define themselves by picking fights with their national leadership when UK policy is going down badly in their backyard and with nominally 'progressive' nationalist alternatives. That's very, very complacent about Plaid - their new leader is very effective and look in with a real chance of coming top in the WA elex. We all know what happened in Scotland after the SNP took over as a party of devolved government.
The Brexit Party are top in the latest Welsh Assembly poll and the Brexit Party were comfortably top in Wales last night, well ahead of Plaid in second
Looking forward it seems inevitable that the Tories have to go to the 30 %+ held by the Brexit Party. Its not going to be easy and May's failure to deliver is going to be an issue but their road ahead is clear, if difficult. Labour's path is more difficult. Why would those that appreciated the sophistication and detailed analysis of Bollocks to Brexit want to hear what even a new leader of the Labour Party had to say? The Green share might be a softer target and they are vulnerable to the wasted vote argument in much, if not all, of the country.
If I am right about the targeting both of what used to be the major parties will want leaders who appeal to those they are seeking to win. Greens are more left wing and authoritarian in their outlook than Corbyn himself so Labour may have it easier in this respect but they have to watch their champagne socialist wing who might find the Lib Dems attractive.
About the only thing I can see that saves the Tories is actually delivering Brexit and moving on to other issues. If they don't (and it is not entirely in their power) last night was only the hors d'oeuvres of a world of pain.
> > @not_on_fire said:
> > Privately I suspect Farage is feeling slightly disappointed in these results. 30% was probably the bottom end of his expectations. It's certainly a lot less than 52%.
>
> If Farage were the sole face of Brexit in 2016, Leave would not have got close to 52%. There's plenty who want Brexit - but not Farage.
Exactly. Maybe a remain v no deal referendum is worth the risk after all?
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129054133753995267?s=20
> > @RobD said:
> > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968
> >
> > Last time I checked the Tories were pretty keen on Brexit.
>
> > @RobD said:
> > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1132863548047187968
> >
> > Last time I checked the Tories were pretty keen on Brexit.
>
> But not maybe the 9% fully. Also the labour vote is pretty remain but unclear which part of it stayed loyal. Overall it shows maybe 55 / 45 for remain.
55% 45% No to independence in Scotland produced an SNP landslide in Scotland at the next general election, 55% 45% Remain in the UK would produce a Brexit Party landslide under FPTP at the next general election I suspect based on last night's results
> Privately I suspect Farage is feeling slightly disappointed in these results. 30% was probably the bottom end of his expectations. It's certainly a lot less than 52%.
Farage retains his MEP salary. Job done. Also his Brexit Party received 3/4 million more votes than UKIP in 2014 - that makes winning seats in a Westminster election that much more likely (starting in Peterborough I guess, which would be the first MP he'd won that wasn't from a defection).
While coming in just under one third of the vote might be a little disappointing the winning margin is currently 11.3% - surely that's hitting it out of the park? Indeed the UK figures may end up with the Farage Party the only one in the 30s and the nearest challenger in the high teens - with nothing in the 20s. Psychologically that makes the winning gap look more like a chasm.
> The most interesting thing that will come out of Scotland in the next month or two is the policy taken by Ruth Davidson. The Scottish tories kept their MEP and got more vote share than English tories but don’t expect her to be happy with this.
>
> A well managed brexit that gets the fish back but keeps us in a customs union with freedom of movement is the objective. A no deal Brexit that triggers an independence referendum the worst outcome.
=======
Conservatives in Scotland peeled off to the BP in roughly the same proportion to those in England - to my surprise.
Interesting parallel with the Tory Party in England now and the Tory Party as it lost Scotland in the 1980s. Johnson, Raab and Hunt are in danger of losing their seats to the Lib Dems, but double down on the rhetoric, just as their Scottish colleagues did as they lost their seats.
Oh and edit. The fish are a lost cause. Too many EU countries want to maintain the status quo to budge on that, even if they had warm feelings to their UK counterparts and wanted to help them out.
> What is truly fascinating is seeing the three way split of parties. We have Leave parties, Remain parties, and then we have ConLab. The country is divided between Leave and Remain, and if you try and do both you get fucked.
>
> We know what the Tories are going to do - they are going to go hard leave and try to out-compete Farage for the angry vote. In doimg so they will lose a proportion of their party/voters who find tbis reprehensible. The Tory party of old is dead.
>
> We don't know what Labour are going to do. We cannot try and punt for the same angry vote as BXP/Boris. That vote doesn't trust us. We definitely can't sit on the fence any longer. Which only leaves pivoting to remain and forging a progressive alliance with LD/Green/CHUMPS.
>
> Witness the death and rebirth of the LibDems. They died with Vince Cable one of the chief architects of their death. They were reborn with Vince Cable the chief architects of their resurrection. How? Because the electorate who Absolutely Pledged never to vote for them again on 2015 is voting for them again in 2019 having found the LDs in the fight place as political tides shift. Labour could do the same.
>
> The Tories will now fracture. Their centre right cannot accept what they logically have to do. Just as the majority of the Labour Party cannot stomach Corbyns bullshit over Europe. It's fine for cancer supporters like Bastani and Jezziah to attack the body for the temerity of denouncing cancer, but we must do so, or cancer wins as the body dies.
>
> Fuck Corbyn. It's on.
If Corbyn refuses to budge and Thornberry triggers a leader election over the summer on the Brexit issue, with support from Starmer, Watson and many more including even possibly McDonnell (with the promise of remaining Shadow Chancellor), - who will win? If it's Thornberry and she is in place by end September to match the new Tory PM facing a VONC, what is the consequence?
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > Next up, Peterborough !
>
> The result tonight in Peterborough:
>
> BRX 38.3%
> Lab 17.2%
> LD 15.4%
> Con 10.9%
> Green 10.8%
> UKIP 3.6%
> CHUK 3.0%
Looks like the Brexit Party will comfortably win the Peterborough by election on Thursday week on those numbers then
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=25&LAB=27&LIB=15&UKIP=3&Green=7&ChUK=2&Brexit=16&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
> Mr. L, but if you add the Conservative score to the Leave column it'd be bigger than the Remain column. That can't be right.
Sorry, you are right. I clearly haven't had enough coffee yet.
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > What is truly fascinating is seeing the three way split of parties. We have Leave parties, Remain parties, and then we have ConLab. The country is divided between Leave and Remain, and if you try and do both you get fucked.
> >
> > We know what the Tories are going to do - they are going to go hard leave and try to out-compete Farage for the angry vote. In doimg so they will lose a proportion of their party/voters who find tbis reprehensible. The Tory party of old is dead.
> >
> > We don't know what Labour are going to do. We cannot try and punt for the same angry vote as BXP/Boris. That vote doesn't trust us. We definitely can't sit on the fence any longer. Which only leaves pivoting to remain and forging a progressive alliance with LD/Green/CHUMPS.
> >
> > Witness the death and rebirth of the LibDems. They died with Vince Cable one of the chief architects of their death. They were reborn with Vince Cable the chief architects of their resurrection. How? Because the electorate who Absolutely Pledged never to vote for them again on 2015 is voting for them again in 2019 having found the LDs in the fight place as political tides shift. Labour could do the same.
> >
> > The Tories will now fracture. Their centre right cannot accept what they logically have to do. Just as the majority of the Labour Party cannot stomach Corbyns bullshit over Europe. It's fine for cancer supporters like Bastani and Jezziah to attack the body for the temerity of denouncing cancer, but we must do so, or cancer wins as the body dies.
> >
> > Fuck Corbyn. It's on.
>
> If Corbyn refuses to budge and Thornberry triggers a leader election over the summer on the Brexit issue, with support from Starmer, Watson and many more including even possibly McDonnell (with the promise of remaining Shadow Chancellor), - who will win? If it's Thornberry and she is in place by end September to match the new Tory PM facing a VONC, what is the consequence?
Unless legislation stopping no deal is tabled by the government we no deal on the 31st October. Inertia is the friend of brexiteer no deal supporters
https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1132922619462934529
Although specifically about the Greens, it'll affect other parties too. Normally blue voters wanting to kick the Conservatives up the arse, lefties who'll drift back to Labour at a General Election but want to signal they want another vote, etc.
> And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
************************************************************************************
As responsible MPs, with their constituents interests at heart, they vote to keep No Deal off the ballot paper in case their constituents self harm.
> Latest Westminster poll from the new gold standard IpsosMORI (Yes, I know, working out who will vote in Euro elections is different);
> https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129054133753995267?s=20
I suspect the Brexit Party will lead in a Westminster poll within the next fortnight and the LDs will also be close to 20% too
> > @JonWC said:
>
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > > > @JonWC said:
>
> > > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
>
> > >
>
> > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
>
> >
>
> > Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer.
>
>
>
> You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal
>
> Why do the Remainers get another go?
I do not think they should to be fair
MPs will block Halloween Brexit - they simply hate the voters and don't care about the voters or their parties future.
Some here are going to be apoplectic about it, but now that TBP are the largest party in the European parliament expect to see a lot more of them in the media. The tone of the debate is likely to shift considerably from where it has been up til now.
> > @JonWC said:
> > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
>
> Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
There is the WDA which is still on offer from the EU. It's a real explicit transition deal unlike "No Deal" which varies from sod'em walk away and pay no money to managed departure on WTO terms (which needs some EU cooperation).
> Mr. L, but if you add the Conservative score to the Leave column it'd be bigger than the Remain column. That can't be right.
------
There were probably more Labour Remain votes than Conservative Leave votes last week, although we can't be sure. Adding Conservatives to Leave, but not Labour to Remain doesn't make sense.
Borders
East Lothian
Edinburgh
East Renfrewshire
East Dunbartonshire
Stirling
Perthshire
Angus
Aberdeen
Aberdeenshire
Moray
Argyll & Bute
Total Tory carnage. Ya beaut!
A referendum with all realistic options included eg:
-No deal Brexit
-May's deal Brexit
-May's deal plus permanent Customs Union Brexit
-Customs Union+Single Market Brexit
-Revoke and No Brexit
Everybody gets to vote against as many options as they strongly oppose.
The option with the least opposition wins.
That way we get the option that the most people can live with (even if it's not their first choice), and we can all get on with our lives. While avoiding any complicated runoffs or transfers etc
Question something like "which of the following do you strongly oppose?"
or maybe frame it positively:
"Which of the following could you live with, even if it's not your first choice?" (choose as many as you like)
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > What is interesting was how last night we moved to North American or French politics in the UK with a populist, socially conservative, largely rural and market town right-wing party and a liberal largely metropolitan party comprising the top 2.
> >
> > If the Tories do not deliver Brexit and Labour do not openly oppose Brexit that is where we could be heading
>
> Or - and I know it's a radical idea - how about political parties delivering policies that actually deliver for the rural and market towns inhabitants rather than leaving them to rot? Brexit is only the denouement of the utter disdain that these voters feel they are held in. And when Brexit makes them even worse off than they are now then what?
>
> The fundamental p4oblem facing both your party and mine is that both are "fuck business".
Being more pro small business maybe, being too pro big business is what has driven the populist surge in the first place
> > @Charles said:
> > > @JonWC said:
> >
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> >
> > > > > @JonWC said:
> >
> > > > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer.
> >
> >
> >
> > You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal
> >
> > Why do the Remainers get another go?
>
> I do not think they should to be fair
We need a route out of the cul de sac he Leavers have taken us down. They have had their chance time and time again to Brexit, it have flunked it, By their own actions they have revived Remain as a viable way out.
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132778853389262850
Luton is the only local authority counting area in the whole of the East of England region that delivered a plurality for Labour. They were routed in both Cambridge and Norwich. Luton is, of course, wholly exceptional in the context of this region, for reasons that don't require repetition.
> > @Garza said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1132912987533119488
> >
> > Goodbye the North and Wales. Hello London Labour Party.
> ***************************************************************************
>
> A Labour Leaver (in the North, Wales or wherever) either feels passionately about Brexit (in which case they move to the Brexit Party and are lost anyway) or they don't feel passionately and continue to vote tribal Labour. So some Labour Leavers are lost anyway.
>
> But if Labour move to an explicit pro-Remain position, they are likely to retain those Labour voters who are passionate Remainers who might otherwise be tempted to move to the LibDems (as last night's results demonstrated,)
>
And if Labour moved to a pro leave position they would no doubt get all those voters back in Wales and the North again.
Its a difficult decision for Labour, I can't really blame them trying to ride the two donkeys at once, but oen donkey has veered off to TBP and the other to LD.
Peterborough: Overview
Prediction: LAB hold
2017
Votes 2017
Share Predicted
Votes
LAB 37.0%
CON 25.9%
LIB 6.3%
Green 3.9%
UKIP 0 4.9%
ChUK 5.5%
Brexit 15.0%
OTH 1.4%
LAB Majority Pred Maj 11.2%
Pompous, hypocritical and stupid.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
> Those adding pro and anti Brexit parties together really should be adding the Tory vote to the anti pile. That, after all, is their policy. Where you add Labour is less clear since no one ever worked out what their policy was.
>
> Looking forward it seems inevitable that the Tories have to go to the 30 %+ held by the Brexit Party. Its not going to be easy and May's failure to deliver is going to be an issue but their road ahead is clear, if difficult. Labour's path is more difficult. Why would those that appreciated the sophistication and detailed analysis of Bollocks to Brexit want to hear what even a new leader of the Labour Party had to say? The Green share might be a softer target and they are vulnerable to the wasted vote argument in much, if not all, of the country.
>
> If I am right about the targeting both of what used to be the major parties will want leaders who appeal to those they are seeking to win. Greens are more left wing and authoritarian in their outlook than Corbyn himself so Labour may have it easier in this respect but they have to watch their champagne socialist wing who might find the Lib Dems attractive.
>
> About the only thing I can see that saves the Tories is actually delivering Brexit and moving on to other issues. If they don't (and it is not entirely in their power) last night was only the hors d'oeuvres of a world of pain.
========
Put simply, before the Brexit referendum, the Tories were riding high. After it they crashed and burned. This looks doubling down on failure to me.
> > @JonWC said:
> > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
>
> ************************************************************************************
> As responsible MPs, with their constituents interests at heart, they vote to keep No Deal off the ballot paper in case their constituents self harm.
Indeed why even let the plebs vote at all. Just let their "betters" decide what is best for them. Oligarchy forever!
> > @JackW said:
> > Whilst we have to be mindful not to directly transfer the Euro result to a general election it has to be said that the LibDems look poised to give arch Conservative brexiteer Anne Main in St. Albans constituency a most uncomfortable time.
> >
> > How I stop the yellow peril invading rural Harpenden is a tricky one !!
> >
> > St Albans and District.
> >
> > The Conservatives trailed the Green Party in fourth place with Labour in fifth, a few hundred votes ahead of Change UK.
> >
> > The results are as follows:
> >
> > Change UK - The Independent Group 2,235
> > Conservative and Unionist Party 4,583
> > English Democrats 171
> > Green Party 6,010
> > Labour Party 2,752
> > Liberal Democrats 22,232
> > The Brexit Party 10,590
> > UK Independence Party (UKIP) 717
> > Csordas, Attila 68
>
> Not just St Albans, but throughtout the Home Counties there were strong LD performances.
>
> The BBC map by party is pretty good.
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48417228
Yes, that map is worth some study (except for the CUK tab which is completely white).
The LibDem strength is broadly Inner London and the M3, M4, M11 and M40 corridors, plus the Lake District and a pretty strong performance throughout the Home Counties.
The Green performance is remarkably even, with a handful of standout results in Lancaster, Bristol & Bath, South Devon, Sheffield, Brighton and Oxbridge.
Labour held on best in the North West, South Wales, and parts of E and W London
The Tories' Isle of Athelney looks like being Dumfries and Galloway. Otherwise their performance was evenly poor (and as good in Scotland as England) but with particular areas of weakness being the usual urban North, North East, Wales and London, as well as Kent/Essex and the South West.
Plaid did best in rural mid Wales as usual, but is also building support in Cardiff and the Rhondda. The SNP did well across Scotland with a small area of relative underperformance in the Borders.
The Brexit Party did well across most of England, excepting London, the M11 corridor, university towns and some of the Northern cities.
1 Remain parties clearly ahead of Leave parties and if you add Labour to remain and the Tories to leave (yes I know the caveats) then remain even further ahead.
2 Labour will now move to a remain and reform position, if the leadership do not move then their hand will be forced by the party conference, but I think they will move.
3 There is no majority for a no deal exit, if a new Tory PM tries to leave without a deal Tory rebels will be able to say they have the public on their side when they act to prevent it and winning a general election or referendum for a no deal exit looks a very tall order.
4 So the possibility of a no deal exit has been diminished by yesterday's results. And if the choice is now no deal or no Brexit then no Brexit looks more likely than ever.
> What idiot sent Steve Baker out to front for the Tories rather than locking him in an oubliette of some description?
>
> Pompous, hypocritical and stupid.
No way to talk about the man who if he makes it to the final 2 will be our next PM
> I think there is likely to be around 100 SNP/LD/PC/Green MPs after the next GE, perhaps 150.
>
>
>
> The next Parliament is going to be very well hung.
>
> Right... but the Labour party gaining seats is unrealistic?
>
> If you look at actual realistic target seats (maybe within 5k?) but let's say the SNP get their 2015 total.
>
> Without checking I am not sure that gets you to 100. that is about 56 for the SNP. 1 for the Greens. 4 for Plaid. Have the Lib Dems got 39 targets within 5k?
Here is question for Corbynites - what on earth is the point of Corbyn if he cannot get a majority?
In any coalition with Corbyn Labour we would have broadly centre left politics. But the reason Labour don't embrace vote winning centre left politics is because momentum et al want pure Corbynism. It cannot be delivered without a majority. All Corbynism does is increase the chance of a no deal extremist Tory/Brexit government.
> I mean I know no one (not even remainers) really cares but does anyone have a good summary of how the rest of the EU voted last night? I thought that the BBC coverage was incredibly parochial given the nature of the election.
EPP still largest bloc but smaller groupings have done much better. More fragmented parliament as a result.
Losers are entitles to a shot in any future contest.
What time are Change UK announcing they are closing down?
That better?
> https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1132920728108654600
Some people will object to this but it's shrewd imo. This is the only election BXP will ever fight without a current or part policy platform. They're going to have to come up with some policies and next time there's a national vote they can actually get some proper scrutiny that isn't about their funding or Farage's weird history.
BXP will be revealed to be an unstable coalition of far-right illiberals, misguided globalisers, nativists, anti-establishment types, Country Lifers, disaster capitalists, libertarians, and baldy immigrant baiters.
The only hope of keeping them together is to say absolutely nothing about anything other than Brexit. Because like the original leave vote, such a mix is to fissile to withstand anything other than a single policy. But failing to produce policies for a domestic election will not be tolerated by the wider public.
https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1132925015316488193
> > @ydoethur said:
> > What idiot sent Steve Baker out to front for the Tories rather than locking him in an oubliette of some description?
> >
> > Pompous, hypocritical and stupid.
>
> No way to talk about the man who if he makes it to the final 2 will be our next PM
It is possible that today that you might as it that Corbyn May have got thing slightly wrong this time?
> > @JonWC said:
>
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > > > @JonWC said:
>
> > > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
>
> > >
>
> > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
>
> >
>
> > Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer.
>
>
>
> You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal
>
> Why do the Remainers get another go?
>
> Because the Brexiteers have forfeited theirs.
>
> 17.4m votes to leave. Their decision has not been implemented
That's what comes of deciding to go on holiday without having a clue where.
> My takeaways from the results:
>
> 1 Remain parties clearly ahead of Leave parties and if you add Labour to remain and the Tories to leave (yes I know the caveats) then remain even further ahead.
>
> 2 Labour will now move to a remain and reform position, if the leadership do not move then their hand will be forced by the party conference, but I think they will move.
>
> 3 There is no majority for a no deal exit, if a new Tory PM tries to leave without a deal Tory rebels will be able to say they have the public on their side when they act to prevent it and winning a general election or referendum for a no deal exit looks a very tall order.
>
> 4 So the possibility of a no deal exit has been diminished by yesterday's results. And if the choice is now no deal or no Brexit then no Brexit looks more likely than ever.
I am not so confident that this takes no deal off the table. If anything I think it makes it much more likely.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > Next up, Peterborough !
> >
> > The result tonight in Peterborough:
> >
> > BRX 38.3%
> > Lab 17.2%
> > LD 15.4%
> > Con 10.9%
> > Green 10.8%
> > UKIP 3.6%
> > CHUK 3.0%
>
> Looks like the Brexit Party will comfortably win the Peterborough by election on Thursday week on those numbers then
The Brexit Party in Westminster. Well done, MPs. Looking over your shoulders yet?
> > @JonWC said:
>
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > > > @JonWC said:
>
> > > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
>
> > >
>
> > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
>
> >
>
> > Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer.
>
>
>
> You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal
>
> Why do the Remainers get another go?
>
> Because the Brexiteers have forfeited theirs.
>
> 17.4m votes to leave. Their decision has not been implemented
They have had a decent bite at the cherry, not anyone’s else fault they couldn’t agree how to do it.
> I mean I know no one (not even remainers) really cares but does anyone have a good summary of how the rest of the EU voted last night? I thought that the BBC coverage was incredibly parochial given the nature of the election.
----------------
The Guardian has good coverage of the overall EU results. Broadly smallish change. The Greens and centrist parties have benefited at the expense of the socialists and conservatives. The populists have stayed still.
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1132923240152752128
> I mean I know no one (not even remainers) really cares but does anyone have a good summary of how the rest of the EU voted last night? I thought that the BBC coverage was incredibly parochial given the nature of the election.
Think headlines are:
No far-right surge (they did well in some countries, went backwards in others)
Centre-right and centre-left groupings lose their combined majority in the Parliament
The liberal and non-Marxist Green groups did well, and should have a greater say now that the aforementioned grand coalition requires their support
Overall increase in turnout across EU
Brexit Party and German CDU now the two largest national party delegations
Socialists won in Spain; far-right Vox did poorly
Lega Nord were top party in Italy
Le Pen's party won a plurality in France, but only just ahead of Macron's
Record vote shares for Sweden Democrats, and Law and Justice in Poland
Orban's party wins absolutely majority of all votes cast in Hungary
Collapse of far-right in Denmark, attributed (according to your bias) to Danes rejecting their manifest awfulness, or the ruling centre-left adopting their immigration policies
> > @JonWC said:
>
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > > > @JonWC said:
>
> > > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
>
> > >
>
> > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
>
> >
>
> > Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer.
>
>
>
> You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal
>
> Why do the Remainers get another go?
Because it's not a game but an important decision. If people don't confirm they want to move from where we are, then that is where we stay.
> I’m not sure this election changes the dynamics much.
>
> MPs will block Halloween Brexit - they simply hate the voters and don't care about the voters or their parties future.
If Parliament votes to stop a No Deal Brexit it is clear that they will have the backing of at least 60% of those that voted yesterday.
Let's not pretend that Farage's 31% on a 38% turnout represents a tidal wave of support for a No Deal Brexit.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1132926559524933632
They're more screwed than labour as they have no options unless the EU has been bluffing for 3 years. It doesnt even matter if more labour mps are now scared to vote for the deal, since more Tories will not vote for it because of BXP .