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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The overnight figures don’t look good for many o the pollsters
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The overnight figures don’t look good for many o the pollsters
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> Second like LD. I will therefore Remain on this site whatever the evidence.
You have to revoke something first
> > @dixiedean said:
> > Second like LD. I will therefore Remain on this site whatever the evidence.
>
> You have to revoke something first
Mmm. I may Revoke the bottle of wine. That will be the equivalent of the Macron French veto.
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1132799701491830784
> Terrible night for Survation and Kantar. Both had Labour miles ahead of the LDs.
Sweet revenge for Yougov over Survation after Survation beat it at GE 2017.
Survation Gold Standard no more
Time to go to bed...
> https://twitter.com/jarvisdupont/status/1132796361466929153
Oh dear. Mr Dupont is clearly an utter knob
https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1132790285958819841
> https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1132800925574287360?s=21
Remain 40.4%, Leave 59.6%?
> @not_on_fire said:
> For all the results for local authority areas in England, tot up LD+Green+CHUK on the one hand, and Brex+Ukip on the other.
>
>
>
> If things carry on the way they are going, then pretty much all of the areas where Remain is ahead will be "Liberal" areas, and those where Leave is ahead will be "Tory" areas. And I'm not talking about present-day Lib Dems and Conservatives, I'm talking about the ideological successors of the current system.
>
>
>
> This split will end up restructuring politics, long-term, along an entrenched cultural divide.
>
>
>
> Ulsterization, part 33 in an ongoing series...
>
> We’re heading for a system with Democratic and Republican parties, just with different names
Yeah, pretty much, but without the maniacal religious dimension on the "Republican" side. We must be grateful for small mercies.
SNP 37.9% (+9
Brexit 15.7%
Lib Dems 13.9%
Con 11.7%
Lab 9.3% (-17)
Greens
Seat allocation:
SNP 3 (+1)
Brexit 1 (n/c)
LD 1 (+1)
Con 1 (n/c)
Lab 0 (-2)
https://twitter.com/aaronbastani/status/1132799004167872512?s=21
> Does anyone have the ten best districts for each party ?
Not yet. Over on the Vote2012 forum they think Newham was the best place for Labour with 50.3%.
> FPT:
> The way forward for Labour is also clear. Ditch Corbyn and switch to people's vote.
>
> Quite a few Labour MPs would disagree.......
Not on the ditch Corbyn point
> If you assume 70% of Labour voters are pro-Remain you get a total Remain vote of 50.3%.
**********************************************************************************************
Agreed. But you need to add on the 30% of loyal Tory voters who are Remainers. Most of the Tory Leavers defected to the Brexit Party.
That brings Remain to 53.0%
> @isam said:
> Oh dear. Mr Dupont is clearly an utter knob
> It's a parody account.
If it is, it hides the comedy very well.
Prediction for Scotland with 31/32 council areas declared:
SNP 3, BREX 1, LDEM 1, TORY 1
"The Western Isles will not declare its result until later on Monday, but it is unlikely to affect the overall Scottish result."
> > @AndyJS said:
> > If you assume 70% of Labour voters are pro-Remain you get a total Remain vote of 50.3%.
> **********************************************************************************************
> Agreed. But you need to add on the 30% of loyal Tory voters who are Remainers. Most of the Tory Leavers defected to the Brexit Party.
>
> That brings Remain to 53.0%
And I can tweak the figures to show something completely different. We know, for instance, that a good percentage of LD voters are actually Leave supporters.
It is pointless trying to divvy up the votes by party.
We are, pretty much, in the land of deadlock. There is no clear majority for any one position.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > If you assume 70% of Labour voters are pro-Remain you get a total Remain vote of 50.3%.
> **********************************************************************************************
> Agreed. But you need to add on the 30% of loyal Tory voters who are Remainers. Most of the Tory Leavers defected to the Brexit Party.
>
> That brings Remain to 53.0%
But you need to take away the Leave supporters who voted LibDem, Green, SNP and PC.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > If you assume 70% of Labour voters are pro-Remain you get a total Remain vote of 50.3%.
> **********************************************************************************************
> Agreed. But you need to add on the 30% of loyal Tory voters who are Remainers. Most of the Tory Leavers defected to the Brexit Party.
>
> That brings Remain to 53.0%
I think John Curtice was right to say recently that Remain are probably ahead now simply based on demographics. In other words, if the same people voted again in the referendum Remain would win. No disrespect to the elderly, it's just a fact.
> Scotland is one of the few places where the Tories beat Labour.
And we keep being told that Labour can't win a GE without Scotland...
https://twitter.com/robmcd85/status/1132803697262714883
> FPT: Nothing has changed
>
> https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1132799701491830784
And yet devolution was going to kill the SNP stone dead. How’s that going?
> FPT: Nothing has changed
>
> https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1132799701491830784
No word on what % of the votes the 'unambiguously' pro Brexit and anti Indy parties received?
> We’re heading for a system with Democratic and Republican parties, just with different names
>
> Yeah, pretty much, but without the maniacal religious dimension on the "Republican" side. We must be grateful for small mercies.
>
> No, I reckon that's on the list, given the amount of international conservative websites. How long before abortion becomes a partisan issue in the UK?
I doubt it. This is one of the most secular and irreligious societies on Earth. It's too late to have culture wars over these kinds of religiously-dominated themes, at least amongst the bulk of the population.
That's not to say that the "Tory" half of the new divide might not ultimately toy with bringing back the death penalty for certain offences, but I don't think it'll fly.
I assume you're saying UKIP=BXP?
> > @Barnesian said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > If you assume 70% of Labour voters are pro-Remain you get a total Remain vote of 50.3%.
> > **********************************************************************************************
> > Agreed. But you need to add on the 30% of loyal Tory voters who are Remainers. Most of the Tory Leavers defected to the Brexit Party.
> >
> > That brings Remain to 53.0%
>
> But you need to take away the Leave supporters who voted LibDem, Green, SNP and PC.
Plus those CUKs who would also vote Leave.
How revealing that I had already forgotten the splitters party.
> > @Barnesian said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > If you assume 70% of Labour voters are pro-Remain you get a total Remain vote of 50.3%.
> > **********************************************************************************************
> > Agreed. But you need to add on the 30% of loyal Tory voters who are Remainers. Most of the Tory Leavers defected to the Brexit Party.
> >
> > That brings Remain to 53.0%
>
> But you need to take away the Leave supporters who voted LibDem, Green, SNP and PC.
****************************************************************************************
I agree it is an unsatisfactory way of assessing the public's view on Leave versus Remain. Let's just ask them.
> The Brexit Party will end up on 30.5% UK wide.
Laying them for over 40% was easy money.
> With only the Western Isles to go, I don’t think the Scottish result can change enough to alter seat allocation.
>
>
>
> SNP 37.9% (+9
>
> Brexit 15.7%
>
> Lib Dems 13.9%
>
> Con 11.7%
>
> Lab 9.3% (-17)
>
> Greens
>
>
>
> Seat allocation:
>
> SNP 3 (+1)
>
> Brexit 1 (n/c)
>
> LD 1 (+1)
>
> Con 1 (n/c)
>
> Lab 0 (-2)
>
> Surely Brexit party can't be n/c from 2014. It has to be +1.
> I assume you're saying UKIP=BXP?
No. The former leader of UKIP in Scotland, David Coburn MEP, had already defected to the Brexit Party.
> With only the Western Isles to go, I don’t think the Scottish result can change enough to alter seat allocation.
>
>
>
> SNP 37.9% (+9
>
> Brexit 15.7%
>
> Lib Dems 13.9%
>
> Con 11.7%
>
> Lab 9.3% (-17)
>
> Greens
>
>
>
> Seat allocation:
>
> SNP 3 (+1)
>
> Brexit 1 (n/c)
>
> LD 1 (+1)
>
> Con 1 (n/c)
>
> Lab 0 (-2)
>
> Surely Brexit party can't be n/c from 2014. It has to be +1.
> I assume you're saying UKIP=BXP?
A lot of people have been doing that all evening and it's not good practice, particularly as UKIP are in fact running in these elections, so the Brexit Party and UKIP were in competition, it wasn't simply a party re-brand.
This explains both the failure and direction of that failure, and also why the phone poll did well. Whether the explanation is valid is a different matter.
> The Brexit Party will end up on 30.5% UK wide.
Darn, so close to 29.99%.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > The Brexit Party will end up on 30.5% UK wide.
>
> Laying them for over 40% was easy money.
I wish I'd focused on that instead of the 25%-29.99% bracket.
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @Barnesian said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > If you assume 70% of Labour voters are pro-Remain you get a total Remain vote of 50.3%.
> > > **********************************************************************************************
> > > Agreed. But you need to add on the 30% of loyal Tory voters who are Remainers. Most of the Tory Leavers defected to the Brexit Party.
> > >
> > > That brings Remain to 53.0%
> >
> > But you need to take away the Leave supporters who voted LibDem, Green, SNP and PC.
>
> ****************************************************************************************
>
>
>
> I agree it is an unsatisfactory way of assessing the public's view on Leave versus Remain. Let's just ask them.
Of all the 'voting for the other side' I think that will be the smallest.
I suspect Nigel and Widdy don't have many Remainer personal votes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5DWJv1hiwM
>
> Is the MEP contingent now more or less Brexit minded than iin 2014 ? Looks like overall UKIP/Brexit/Tories have lost seats, although I suppose some of the Tory MEPs were remainers
>
>
2014 Tories were pro-Remain.
> > @viewcode said:
> > We’re heading for a system with Democratic and Republican parties, just with different names
> >
> > Yeah, pretty much, but without the maniacal religious dimension on the "Republican" side. We must be grateful for small mercies.
> >
> > No, I reckon that's on the list, given the amount of international conservative websites. How long before abortion becomes a partisan issue in the UK?
>
> I doubt it. This is one of the most secular and irreligious societies on Earth. It's too late to have culture wars over these kinds of religiously-dominated themes, at least amongst the bulk of the population.
>
> That's not to say that the "Tory" half of the new divide might not ultimately toy with bringing back the death penalty for certain offences, but I don't think it'll fly.
We are seeing a significant religious divide in parts of our country. You only have to look at events outside schools in Birmingham, Manchester and beyond to see how certain groups are trying to use intimidation to bypass equality legislation to ensure their religious teachings take precedence over the laws of the land.
That is something that will go beyond primary education into other areas if it is not stamped on quickly - and I see no political will to do so. And that is seriously depressing.
We shouldn't be having to fight these battles again.
Labour is almost equally stuffed, though not quite as badly. Move a bit one way and you might repair some damage, but then the party walls might collapse.
> A lot of people have been doing that all evening and it's not good practice, particularly as UKIP are in fact running in these elections, so the Brexit Party and UKIP were in competition, it wasn't simply a party re-brand.
Especially as we're told often that the Brexit Party isn't* fascist and we know that Ukip now is.
*I'll reserve judgement until after I've actually seen some policies.
>
> I agree it is an unsatisfactory way of assessing the public's view on Leave versus Remain. Let's just ask them.
It might well come to that.
It is understandable that pb Tories focus on Labour's discomfort but the more immediate relevance is for the Conservative leadership election which will deliver a new Prime Minister with a new Brexit policy in just a few weeks.
And the trouble for all the Conservative runners is there is no clear way out of this because the only thing we can be sure of is that a snap election would see the party wiped out. so there might be a pivot to the so-called Noel Edmonds referendum: deal or no deal.
Ironically, the deal will probably look suspiciously like Theresa May's WA, or perhaps the variant she offered to Labour.
But it is the blue team where the action is. Labour doesn't matter.
> https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1132803559253250050
Who?
Oh, you mean the former BBC journalist who likes jabbing his finger at people and losing elections.
Oh. Him.
Next.
> Next up, Peterborough !
The Peterborough city council area went 38% Brexit party with Labour second on 17%. Of course the Peterborough constituency covers the more urban part of the local authority and we have no specific results for there.
https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-party-storms-to-victory-in-peterborough-at-european-elections-1-8941541
> Lol at the result in Richmond. Zac Goldsmith is toast
I wouldn't be making the leap that Tories in heavily anti-Brexit seats are toast. I doubt there are many remain Tory leaning voters who want Jeremy Corbyn in Downing St, so until the Lib Dem candidates in those seats are categorical that they won't support a Corbyn government it's probably still to play for.
> What’s the PB view on how safe Boris is in Uxbridge at a GE?
I'm not even sure Boris will stand if he loses this leadership contest. He might follow Michael Portillo's journey from perennial losing favourite to television pundit and trainspotter.
> It's strange having all the GB results bar one in by 1:30 in the morning.
Its 1655 in the Western Isles.
Realistically the Tories will lose 20-30 seats to the Lib Dems in a GE if they do this. Others they will lose to Labour if their vote splinters.
> Next up, Peterborough !
The result tonight in Peterborough:
BRX 38.3%
Lab 17.2%
LD 15.4%
Con 10.9%
Green 10.8%
UKIP 3.6%
CHUK 3.0%
Ipsos Mori clearly showing that telephone polls can still be a good predictor though, despite this being the age of mobiles and people not answering their phones.
If he is PM he will be OK. Otherwise, game on
> > @AndyJS said:
> > It's strange having all the GB results bar one in by 1:30 in the morning.
>
> Its 1655 in the Western Isles.
Interesting thing about the Western Isles is that it's divided roughly evenly between Catholics and Protestants. I think it's a north/south divide although I'm not an expert on the subject.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > Next up, Peterborough !
>
> The result tonight in Peterborough:
>
> BRX 38.3%
> Lab 17.2%
> LD 15.4%
> Con 10.9%
> Green 10.8%
> UKIP 3.6%
> CHUK 3.0%
Thinking back to your 2016 prediction spreadsheet.
Leave did much better than expected in heavily non-white areas.
But TBP did very poorly in the same districts.
Labour really does have a loyalty vote among those communities.
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > It's strange having all the GB results bar one in by 1:30 in the morning.
> >
> > Its 1655 in the Western Isles.
>
> Interesting thing about the Western Isles is that it's divided roughly evenly between Catholics and Protestants. I think it's a north/south divide although I'm not an expert on the subject.
Barra is very Catholic, as is South Uist to a lesser degree. The other more Nothern islands are Protestant, some very staunchly so.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > Next up, Peterborough !
> >
> > The result tonight in Peterborough:
> >
> > BRX 38.3%
> > Lab 17.2%
> > LD 15.4%
> > Con 10.9%
> > Green 10.8%
> > UKIP 3.6%
> > CHUK 3.0%
>
> Thinking back to your 2016 prediction spreadsheet.
>
> Leave did much better than expected in heavily non-white areas.
>
> But TBP did very poorly in the same districts.
>
> Labour really does have a loyalty vote among those communities.
Conversely the Brexit Party may be associated, probably understandably, with UKIP, in many non-white areas, and as such unfavourable to them.
> So I see the much vaunted "voters won't know the difference between UKIP and TBP theory" didn't happen. UKIP got about their polling figure.
I think it was only "vaunted" by me, and then mostly in the context of "under what circumstance could OGH's bet on the LDs beating BXP come off?"
> > @ExiledInScotland said:
> > What’s the PB view on how safe Boris is in Uxbridge at a GE?
>
> I'm not even sure Boris will stand if he loses this leadership contest. He might follow Michael Portillo's journey from perennial losing favourite to television pundit and trainspotter.
And if he is PM, he'll benefit from the 'Leadership boost' to his personal vote, which is always considerable, sometimes bafflingly so.
> > @not_on_fire said:
> > Lol at the result in Richmond. Zac Goldsmith is toast
>
> I wouldn't be making the leap that Tories in heavily anti-Brexit seats are toast. I doubt there are many remain Tory leaning voters who want Jeremy Corbyn in Downing St, so until the Lib Dem candidates in those seats are categorical that they won't support a Corbyn government it's probably still to play for.
+++++++++
Zac G was lucky to hold on in 2017, managing to keep the seat by a few tens of votes.
If the LDs are on 14% nationwide at the next election, then he'll really struggle to hold on.
> Terrible night for Survation and Kantar. Both had Labour miles ahead of the LDs.
Terrrrrible night for the Tories.
People making the classic mistake of confusing GB and UK vote shares
South Cambridgeshire: 7.1%
South Hams: 3.3%
Broxtowe: 4.7%
Redbridge: 4.3%
Enfield: 4.6%
Stockport: 3.3%
Lambeth: 8.1%
Luton: 3.1%
Liverpool: 2.4%
Nottingham: 3.6%
Barnsley: 2.4%
Sheffield: 1.8%
Much vaunted might be overplaying it slightly...
> Tobias Elwood. Get a tie man
i never wear a tie anymore - bloody glad to be rid of them
Preston, Blackburn, Liverpool, Knowsley, Manchester, Oldham,
Nottingham, Leicester, Birmingham, Luton, Slough,
Croydon, Hounslow, Ealing, Brent, Harrow, Enfield, Hackney, Tower Hamlets,
Newham, Greenwich, Barking & Dagenham, Redbridge, Waltham Forest.
Even if you think that Sadiq will win, then a trading bet on Siobhan Benita is still probably a decent move.
2. Take Brexit Party votes.
3. Con + BXP polling = Con with no dealer = Most seats.
Whether it works or not is another question but I'm guessing that is the most positive case you could make for the Tories tonight.