> @FF43 said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @FF43 said: > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > @FF43 said: > > > > > > > > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't. > > > > > > > > > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium. > > > > > > ----- > > > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke. > > > > > > ============== > > > > > > If we end up following the rules, which we will do because they are useful to us, it should go without saying that we have more influence if we show up to the meetings where the decisions are being made. And people pay more heed to your interests when making those tricky consensus decisions if you are part of that consensus, compared with if you are not. > > > > > > > So the way to have influence is to agree with everything that the other side wants? Well that is certainly a novel view. > > > > It's not the "other side". It's a consortium of member states with competing as well as shared interests.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth. > > They never adduce any evidence. > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you. > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > @justin124 said: > > > > > @NickPalmer said: > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > > > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum > > > > > > > > > > > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet > > > > > > > > > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else? > > > > > > > > Maybe Dominic Grieve, Justine Greening ,Philip Lee, Rory Stewart? > > > > > > These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time > > > > > > Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey > > > > > > Add in > > > > > > Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote. > > > > > > Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary. > > > > > > Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal. > > > > Nick Boles has already left the Tory ranks - and Guto Bebb has refused to confirm he would vote against a VNOC. > > Few of them will confirm voting against on a VONC until necessary as it is an obvious tactical mistake. If they confirm that they would vote for the govt in a VONC they can come off the list. Hammond on Marr refusing to say he would as I type, which suggests to me he would vote against. (Boles would have voted for May in last VONC so counts as a switcher).
Boles has already announced he won't be standing at the next election so he genuinely has nothing to lose.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth. > > They never adduce any evidence. > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you. > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
IIRC it was Margaret Thatcher who really pushed for the Eastward expansion.
> > > This has got me thinking, is there anyone who has lost a GE and later become prime-minister? Certainly not since the Second World War. Kinnock tried to win this acheivement, and of course Corbyn is attemting it at the moment.
> > >
> > > Attlee. That said, the first election he lost was before the Second World War.
> > >
> > > And of course Heath - 1966 and 1970.
> > >
> > > Churchill also lost his seat in 1908 and 1922. But he had barely re-entered Parliament (and hadn't rejoined the Unionists) before he was made Chancellor.
> > >
> > > Macmillan lost his seat in 1929 and 1945 but recovered to lead the party and be PM.
> > >
> > > Foot also lost at least one seat (in 1959 I think).
> > >
> > > So I'm not sure I accept your premise.
> >
> > When I said "lost", I meant lost a GE as leader of the opposition. So Foot/Macmillan loosing their seats doesn't fall into that category. But thanks for the great information.
> >
> > The big surprise for me here is Heath losing in 1966 and staying on until 1970. So in hist time as leader of the conservatives he won once and lost 3 times.
>
> Gaitskell lost heavily in 1959 and probably would have won in 1964 , had he survived.
IIRC it seemed likely that Gaitskell would have done better than Wilson actually did.
If he'd done a Blair and lasted three terms we might well have never joined the EU....
> @Philip_Thompson said: > It seems irony is not dead. > > It amuses me greatly after a break from this site that people who were cheering on May's deal despite it not having the numbers are haughtily tut tutting that alternatives like "revised deal or no deal" or "direct no deal" don't have the numbers. So what? Seriously literally nothing has the numbers that's why we are in this mess. > > The only way to make up the numbers is to get a new option that's not on the table at the moment, or for someone to blink that hasn't yet, or to have an election. > > At least the candidates this time are saying what they stand for and seeking a mandate (from the MPs in the governing party and its members) rather than issuing platitudes like Brexit means Brexit.
The so what is because deadlock is very bad for us. Leaders should lead. That involves thinking through the consequences of their actions. Promising we will no deal in October when it is not in their control is stupid. In a few months time, they will either look weak or be labelled a liar just as May has been.
If you want to argue for no deal, there are much better ways. You could ask for a 1 year extension, start spending 10bn on preparations now, and say there will be a spring general election to get support for the no deal when people have seen the preparations. It might still be a very bad plan but it would be within their control to deliver it.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > @FF43 said: > > > > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > > > > > > > The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise. > > > > > > > > > > > > This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get. > > > > > > > > > > -------------------- > > > > > > > > > > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't. > > > > > > > > > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium. > > > > > > > > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke. > > > > > > You reveal your lack of understanding there. Regaining our credibility and influence from here might however be more of a challenge. > > > > Um no. I certainly understand our lack of power and influence both inside and outside the EU as long as we remained a member. It is you who seem to have these misconceptions about what influence we actually had. > > Which country pushed hardest for the single market? > Which country pushed hardest for Eastern expansion? > > Of course we have significant influence. You may not like how we have used it, or that as 13% of the EU population, the rest of EU rightly and obviously have more influence combined than we do.
That was over 30 years ago. It is like harking back to the war or the world cup as a reason to feel superior to the Germans.
The EU and the world have changed and our membership of the former has greatly reduced our ability to operate in our own best interests in the latter.
> @Philip_Thompson said: > It seems irony is not dead. > > It amuses me greatly after a break from this site that people who were cheering on May's deal despite it not having the numbers are haughtily tut tutting that alternatives like "revised deal or no deal" or "direct no deal" don't have the numbers. So what? Seriously literally nothing has the numbers that's why we are in this mess. > > The only way to make up the numbers is to get a new option that's not on the table at the moment, or for someone to blink that hasn't yet, or to have an election. > > At least the candidates this time are saying what they stand for and seeking a mandate (from the MPs in the governing party and its members) rather than issuing platitudes like Brexit means Brexit.
Its a debate which should have taken place in 2016 - instead they were willing to let May do the work and take the responsibility while they engaged in their own petty scheming.
But I would like evidence that the candidates have done some proper preparation and are willing to show some attention to details.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth. > > They never adduce any evidence. > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you. > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
> @rottenborough said: > Is the Tory party actually going to survive this race intact?
No better than evens IMO.
And Brexit is on the line now, the current view that we are moving toward no deal is wrong, no deal will be killed by this contest and a reversal of Brexit will be looking much more likely by the end of it.
> The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
>
> They never adduce any evidence.
>
> Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
>
>
> The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
> @Recidivist said: > > @justin124 said: > > > > @eristdoof said: > > > > > @ydoethur said: > > > > > This has got me thinking, is there anyone who has lost a GE and later become prime-minister? Certainly not since the Second World War. Kinnock tried to win this acheivement, and of course Corbyn is attemting it at the moment. > > > > > > > > > > Attlee. That said, the first election he lost was before the Second World War. > > > > > > > > > > And of course Heath - 1966 and 1970. > > > > > > > > > > Churchill also lost his seat in 1908 and 1922. But he had barely re-entered Parliament (and hadn't rejoined the Unionists) before he was made Chancellor. > > > > > > > > > > Macmillan lost his seat in 1929 and 1945 but recovered to lead the party and be PM. > > > > > > > > > > Foot also lost at least one seat (in 1959 I think). > > > > > > > > > > So I'm not sure I accept your premise. > > > > > > > > When I said "lost", I meant lost a GE as leader of the opposition. So Foot/Macmillan loosing their seats doesn't fall into that category. But thanks for the great information. > > > > > > > > The big surprise for me here is Heath losing in 1966 and staying on until 1970. So in hist time as leader of the conservatives he won once and lost 3 times. > > > > > > Gaitskell lost heavily in 1959 and probably would have won in 1964 , had he survived. > > > > IIRC it seemed likely that Gaitskell would have done better than Wilson actually did. > > If he'd done a Blair and lasted three terms we might well have never joined the EU....
No, he wasn't a supporter of European integration.
> @OldKingCole said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth. > > > > They never adduce any evidence. > > > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you. > > > > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key. > > IIRC it was Margaret Thatcher who really pushed for the Eastward expansion.
And she did so to try and prevent a deepening of the EU by concentrating on a widening. So that worked out well then....
> > It's not the "other side". It's a consortium of member states with competing as well as shared interests. > > That is so wonderfully naïve.
----------------------------
It's not naive. It's what it is. The EU is a consortium of member states and is the only show in town in Europe. The UK leaving the European Union is somewhat like Liverpool football club leaving the Football Association. Theoretically possible, but why?
Some point people will have to deal with the EU as it is, rather than as they imagine it to be.
> @rottenborough said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth. > > > > They never adduce any evidence. > > > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you. > > > > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key. > > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history.
Only if you believe the Single Market is a genuine free market. Which it isn't.
> @Scott_P said: > Is the Tory party actually going to survive this race intact? > > This is the key https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132590563935567872 > > > > The tragedy of Brexit will be that it mirrors the aftereffects of Indyref. > > A generation of heavyweight Labour politicians were swept away to be replaced by Michelle Thompson and Natalie McGarry... > > Proper Tory politicians are about to get swept away by idiots wearing the "right" badge.
It is getting harder and harder to see how the Tories and the UK survive this intact. The basic problem with No Deal is that most people are opposed to it. A party inflicting it on the country despite this will, deservedly, pay a very heavy price. The SNP will clearly include a pledge on an indy referendum in the case of No Deal in their next manifesto.
Given the personal costs to those who would have to vote against the Government to result in it losing a VoNC I suspect the only way anyone will actually know for sure will be to let it play out and have the vote. I am not sure Sir Mark will feel he is in a position to second guess that.
> @rottenborough said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth. > > > > They never adduce any evidence. > > > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you. > > > > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key. > > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history.
The world has changed in the last 30+ years.
Thatcherite free marketeers are more interested in Asia than Europe now.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth. > > > > > > They never adduce any evidence. > > > > > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you. > > > > > > > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key. > > > > Weren't both of those before you were born? > > No.
Not far off though I would guess. Or have you been lying to us about your age all this time
> @justin124 said: > > @matt said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > > @old_labour said: > > > > > > Boris Johnson seeking a quickie divorce from his long suffering wife to get his mistress ensconced in Downing Street. He must think he has the leadership in the bag. > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7071209/Boris-Johnson-hopes-finalise-split-estranged-wife-six-weeks.html > > > > > > > > > > Her Bozzie Bear. > > > > > > > > > > Should we open a bet on how long the relationship will last? > > > > > > > > I am not sure the country is ready for a PM shacked up at No 10. That probably explains Ed Milliband's decision to get married whilst Labour leader. > > > > This opinion brought as a hot take from the 1950s. > > Do you think that Thatcher would have become Tory leader had she been 'living in sin' with Denis? Or indeed Theresa May?
> > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
> >
> > They never adduce any evidence.
> >
> > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
> >
> >
> > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
>
> The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history.
The world has changed in the last 30+ years.
Thatcherite free marketeers are more interested in Asia than Europe now.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @Scott_P said: > > Is the Tory party actually going to survive this race intact? > > > > This is the key https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132590563935567872 > > > > > > > > The tragedy of Brexit will be that it mirrors the aftereffects of Indyref. > > > > A generation of heavyweight Labour politicians were swept away to be replaced by Michelle Thompson and Natalie McGarry... > > > > Proper Tory politicians are about to get swept away by idiots wearing the "right" badge. > > It is getting harder and harder to see how the Tories and the UK survive this intact. The basic problem with No Deal is that most people are opposed to it. A party inflicting it on the country despite this will, deservedly, pay a very heavy price. The SNP will clearly include a pledge on an indy referendum in the case of No Deal in their next manifesto.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth. > > > > > > They never adduce any evidence. > > > > > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you. > > > > > > > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key. > > > > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history. > > Only if you believe the Single Market is a genuine free market. Which it isn't.
The EU is a 'work in progress'. It was never going to become 'perfect' overnight. To expect that to come about is as daft as No Deal bringing back the 50's. Or something like that.
> @another_richard said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth. > > > > > > They never adduce any evidence. > > > > > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you. > > > > > > > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key. > > > > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history. > > The world has changed in the last 30+ years. > > Thatcherite free marketeers are more interested in Asia than Europe now.
Trouble is....Asia isnt that interested in the UK......major investments have proved a disaster - JLR, Tata steel, Battersea have all become major money pits/embarassments
> @Recidivist said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth. > > > > > > > > They never adduce any evidence. > > > > > > > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you. > > > > > > > > > > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key. > > > > > > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history. > > > > The world has changed in the last 30+ years. > > > > Thatcherite free marketeers are more interested in Asia than Europe now. > > Name one.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > I have been pointing out this question for months.
It could be the second Tory leadership election in a row where all the candidates destroy themselves, and at the end Theresa May emerges from the rubble.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @Scott_P said: > > Is the Tory party actually going to survive this race intact? > > > > This is the key https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132590563935567872 > > > > > > > > The tragedy of Brexit will be that it mirrors the aftereffects of Indyref. > > > > A generation of heavyweight Labour politicians were swept away to be replaced by Michelle Thompson and Natalie McGarry... > > > > Proper Tory politicians are about to get swept away by idiots wearing the "right" badge. > > It is getting harder and harder to see how the Tories and the UK survive this intact. The basic problem with No Deal is that most people are opposed to it. A party inflicting it on the country despite this will, deservedly, pay a very heavy price. The SNP will clearly include a pledge on an indy referendum in the case of No Deal in their next manifesto.
It will soon become clear that a PM committed to no deal will not be able to command a majority in parliament. So the Tories will either have to accept that no deal is off the table or hold a general election. And either of those outcomes will probably break the party.
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > Theresa May is already beginning to look rather good in retrospect, isn't she? > > Is this in the same way you thought Cameron's renegotiation with the EU was rather good?
The German government's anti-Semitism commissioner has urged Jews to avoid wearing skullcaps in public. Felix Klein warned Jews against donning the kippa in parts of the country, following a rise in anti-Semitism.
> @swing_voter said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth. > > > > > > > > They never adduce any evidence. > > > > > > > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you. > > > > > > > > > > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key. > > > > > > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history. > > > > The world has changed in the last 30+ years. > > > > Thatcherite free marketeers are more interested in Asia than Europe now. > > Trouble is....Asia isnt that interested in the UK......major investments have proved a disaster - JLR, Tata steel, Battersea have all become major money pits/embarassments
Ultimately I think we return to the question I posed here over a decade ago:
In a globalised world how does the UK compete with countries which are as intelligent and educated as we are and are willing to work harder, for lower wages and under fewer restrictions.
We are going to end up with the players in UK politics being Corbyn, Farage, Sturgeon, Jo Swinson and Boris. Jesus. Change better get their act together, we need something to save us!
> @another_richard said: > > @Recidivist said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth. > > > > > > > > > > > > They never adduce any evidence. > > > > > > > > > > > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key. > > > > > > > > > > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history. > > > > > > > > The world has changed in the last 30+ years. > > > > > > > > Thatcherite free marketeers are more interested in Asia than Europe now. > > > > Name one. > > The likes of Fox, Hannan and Lilico
> @GIN1138 said: > Given Hammonds comments it must now be odds on for an election in October. > > Parliament breaks on 20th July and returns on 5th September. > > That 5th September sitting may only do one thing - Vote through a general election.
The Tory party has collectively lost their mind, from appearing to want Boris to be leader to enabling Corbyn to become PM.
So who does she appoint and how is that person identified? The simplest route is to leave Theresa May in office, wait for a vote of no confidence and see what emerges from the chaos. But that would be hugely controversial.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > Given Hammonds comments it must now be odds on for an election in October. > > > > Parliament breaks on 20th July and returns on 5th September. > > > > That 5th September sitting may only do one thing - Vote through a general election. > > The Tory party has collectively lost their mind, from appearing to want Boris to be leader to enabling Corbyn to become PM.
When it comes to it the money grubbing tory bastards wont end their own pocket lining career by a VONC.
> I have been pointing out this question for months.
>
> I don't see the problem for the Queen. Of course she can't appoint a PM who cannot command the confidence of the House.
So who does she appoint and how is that person identified? The simplest route is to leave Theresa May in office, wait for a vote of no confidence and see what emerges from the chaos. But that would be hugely controversial.
I know I'm breaking some internet 'law' or other, but these days Nigel is becoming increasingly reminiscent of Adolf strutting the stage. As the for the Brexit Party faithful, surely they were filtered by the programme makers for a particular effect. I didn't actually hear anyone say 'Eee by gum' but that implication was clearly being driven.
We are going to end up with the players in UK politics being Corbyn, Farage, Sturgeon, Jo Swinson and Boris. Jesus. Change better get their act together, we need something to save us!
> @dyedwoolie said: > We are going to end up with the players in UK politics being Corbyn, Farage, Sturgeon, Jo Swinson and Boris. Jesus. Change better get their act together, we need something to save us!
Nothing wrong with Sturgeon or Swinson. Preferably, I think, the former.
Even if the EU were willing to negotiate some changes there’s no time now.
Summer recess , a new commission won’t come in till after October 31st . So effectively those willing to say they’ll take the UK out deal or no deal are essentially saying it’s just no deal .
Loads of legislation even for no deal is backed up as the government is too scared to bring it back .
> @GIN1138 said: > Given Hammonds comments it must now be odds on for an election in October. > > Parliament breaks on 20th July and returns on 5th September. > > That 5th September sitting may only do one thing - Vote through a general election.
Possible scenario: New Prime Minister on 5th says going for new negotiations - can't see a VONC at that point. Four weeks later - says no hope so going to go for WTO. At that point nothing can be done to stop it. VONC means we crash out during GE campaign?
I know I'm breaking some internet 'law' or other, but these days Nigel is becoming increasingly reminiscent of Adolf strutting the stage. As the for the Brexit Party faithful, surely they were filtered by the programme makers for a particular effect. I didn't actually hear anyone say 'Eee by gum' but that implication was clearly being driven.
> @argyllrs said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > Given Hammonds comments it must now be odds on for an election in October. > > > > Parliament breaks on 20th July and returns on 5th September. > > > > That 5th September sitting may only do one thing - Vote through a general election. > > Possible scenario: New Prime Minister on 5th says going for new negotiations - can't see a VONC at that point. Four weeks later - says no hope so going to go for WTO. > At that point nothing can be done to stop it. VONC means we crash out during GE campaign?
A VONC does not lead directly to a GE. Letwin or similar would be PM to revoke and resign.
Boris wins leadership on a No Deal ticket. For once he doesn't do his standard trick and deny he ever said such a thing the day after the result is announced.
May goes to Palace to resign.
Queen has been informed by civil service that Boris would not be likely to command a majority.
Queen asks May to stay on, while they sort the mess out.
May says no. I have done the duty thing and I aint doing it anymore. Advises the Queen that she invites Liddington. Or even Ken Clarke. Or Chris Grayling.
> @argyllrs said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > Given Hammonds comments it must now be odds on for an election in October. > > > > Parliament breaks on 20th July and returns on 5th September. > > > > That 5th September sitting may only do one thing - Vote through a general election. > > Possible scenario: New Prime Minister on 5th says going for new negotiations - can't see a VONC at that point. Four weeks later - says no hope so going to go for WTO. > At that point nothing can be done to stop it. VONC means we crash out during GE campaign?
That'd be fun. Shortages in the shops, a blocked M20 and Farage & Johnson running round telling people it'll be all right. Really it will.
Recipe for a LD/SNP Coalition with Labour opposition.
> @rottenborough said: > Next PM book could get interesting. > > Boris wins leadership on a No Deal ticket. For once he doesn't do his standard trick and deny he ever said such a thing the day after the result is announced. > > May goes to Palace to resign. > > Queen has been informed by civil service that Boris would not be likely to command a majority. > > Queen asks May to stay on, while they sort the mess out. > > May says no. I have done the duty thing and I aint doing it anymore. Advises the Queen that she invites Liddington. Or even Ken Clarke. Or Chris Grayling.
The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
They never adduce any evidence.
Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > So who does she appoint and how is that person identified? The simplest route is to leave Theresa May in office, wait for a vote of no confidence and see what emerges from the chaos. But that would be hugely controversial.
The problem doesn't arise. All (at least most?) the no-dealers say they will renegotiate first. Even though, in practice, that is a fantasy, it is a fantasy that will enable the anti-no-dealers to roll over and allow the no-dealer to take office.
> @Philip_Thompson said: > It seems irony is not dead. > > It amuses me greatly after a break from this site that people who were cheering on May's deal despite it not having the numbers are haughtily tut tutting that alternatives like "revised deal or no deal" or "direct no deal" don't have the numbers. So what? Seriously literally nothing has the numbers that's why we are in this mess. > > The only way to make up the numbers is to get a new option that's not on the table at the moment, or for someone to blink that hasn't yet, or to have an election. > > At least the candidates this time are saying what they stand for and seeking a mandate (from the MPs in the governing party and its members) rather than issuing platitudes like Brexit means Brexit.
This was happening before your break too. A lot of people were hopeful that the indicative votes works prove that no option had enough votes... so that everyone would give up and unite behind May's deal which, er, also didn't have enough votes
> @OldKingCole said: > > @argyllrs said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > Given Hammonds comments it must now be odds on for an election in October. > > > > > > Parliament breaks on 20th July and returns on 5th September. > > > > > > That 5th September sitting may only do one thing - Vote through a general election. > > > > Possible scenario: New Prime Minister on 5th says going for new negotiations - can't see a VONC at that point. Four weeks later - says no hope so going to go for WTO. > > At that point nothing can be done to stop it. VONC means we crash out during GE campaign? > > That'd be fun. Shortages in the shops, a blocked M20 and Farage & Johnson running round telling people it'll be all right. Really it will. > > Recipe for a LD/SNP Coalition with Labour opposition. >
Apologies. Point I'm making is that if a WTO MP becomes PM then as long as they plan it right then we will be out of the EU on 1st Nov on WTO and there is little can be done to stop it.
> > > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > They never adduce any evidence.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history.
> >
> >
> >
> > The world has changed in the last 30+ years.
> >
> >
> >
> > Thatcherite free marketeers are more interested in Asia than Europe now.
> >
> > Name one.
>
> The likes of Fox, Hannan and Lilico
That is unfair. He said 1 not 3.
Well let's look at the first one. Liam Fox gave a speech on this very subject in the House of Commons.
He mentions Asia just twice, and on both occasions as part of a list comprising most of the globe. Here is one of them.
"We need to take a balanced approach, acknowledging the continued importance of our EU partners, whilst taking advantage of opportunities beyond the borders of our continent in the high-growth economies of Africa, Asia, and South America. I believe these will be key to our economic success as a Global Britain."
That's in a 3,500 word speech.
So no indication of a specific pivot towards having an active policy of trading with Asia. Nor indeed any suggestion that we plan to withdraw trading activity from Europe.
> @OldKingCole said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth. > > > > > > > > They never adduce any evidence. > > > > > > > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you. > > > > > > > > > > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key. > > > > > > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history. > > > > Only if you believe the Single Market is a genuine free market. Which it isn't. > > The EU is a 'work in progress'. It was never going to become 'perfect' overnight. To expect that to come about is as daft as No Deal bringing back the 50's. > Or something like that.
We were members for 40 years and failed to make any real impact in that time. The idea of 'changing the EU from the inside' is as bankrupt as a 'pain free No Deal'.
> @Recidivist said: > > @another_richard said: > > > > @Recidivist said: > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > > > > > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > They never adduce any evidence. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The world has changed in the last 30+ years. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Thatcherite free marketeers are more interested in Asia than Europe now. > > > > > > > > Name one. > > > > > > The likes of Fox, Hannan and Lilico > > > > That is unfair. He said 1 not 3. > > Well let's look at the first one. Liam Fox gave a speech on this very subject in the House of Commons. > > He mentions Asia just twice, and on both occasions as part of a list comprising most of the globe. Here is one of them. > > "We need to take a balanced approach, acknowledging the continued importance of our EU partners, whilst taking advantage of opportunities beyond the borders of our continent in the high-growth economies of Africa, Asia, and South America. I believe these will be key to our economic success as a Global Britain." > > That's in a 3,500 word speech. > > So no indication of a specific pivot towards having an active policy of trading with Asia. Nor indeed any suggestion that we plan to withdraw trading activity from Europe. > > https://www.liamfox.co.uk/news/dr-liam-foxs-opening-statement-european-union-withdrawal-agreement-parliamentary-debate
That is quite stunning. You have quoted something and then made a claim that is utterly refuted by the quote.
> The tragedy of Brexit will be that it mirrors the aftereffects of Indyref.
>
> A generation of heavyweight Labour politicians were swept away to be replaced by Michelle Thompson and Natalie McGarry...
>
> Proper Tory politicians are about to get swept away by idiots wearing the "right" badge.
It is getting harder and harder to see how the Tories and the UK survive this intact. The basic problem with No Deal is that most people are opposed to it. A party inflicting it on the country despite this will, deservedly, pay a very heavy price. The SNP will clearly include a pledge on an indy referendum in the case of No Deal in their next manifesto.
LOL what dross. labour heavyweights, only thing heavy about them was there wallets and their fat guts with all the dodgy dealings and troughing. They are all still troughing in the Lords , great socialists that they are. Like the Tories now they deserved to be chucked out for the cheating lying rats that they were , parasites leeching off the public, enriching themselves and their friends and families.
So it’s apparently not OK to listen to the Leader of the Opposition who has circa 260 MPs but is ok to listen to someone who is leader of a party with no MPs at all. Righto.....
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @argyllrs said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > Given Hammonds comments it must now be odds on for an election in October. > > > > > > Parliament breaks on 20th July and returns on 5th September. > > > > > > That 5th September sitting may only do one thing - Vote through a general election. > > > > Possible scenario: New Prime Minister on 5th says going for new negotiations - can't see a VONC at that point. Four weeks later - says no hope so going to go for WTO. > > At that point nothing can be done to stop it. VONC means we crash out during GE campaign? > > A VONC does not lead directly to a GE. Letwin or similar would be PM to revoke and resign.
Not so. They themselves would have to have a majority in Parliament to take over as PM and that is no more likely than the person they would have just defeated.
> @kle4 said: > In all seriousness, does anybody think Tory members would not prefer a straight no deal candidate over someone saying 'we'll negotiate the backstop for the millionth time, and no deal if that fails'?
Yup. However I think MPs will be reluctant to give them the option of a person they think would actually do that, since it would result in a very dangerous general election for them.
The upshot is that the winning candidate wants to be able to: 1) Persuade MPs they won't do No Deal to get on the ballot 2) Persuade members they definitely will do No Deal to win the election 3) Persuade MPs they won't do No Deal again to get through a confidence vote
This makes the case for Boris, because the MPs know not to believe anything he says and just wants to be PM, whereas the members are probably only dimly aware of this.
We are going to end up with the players in UK politics being Corbyn, Farage, Sturgeon, Jo Swinson and Boris. Jesus. Change better get their act together, we need something to save us!
They would be better saviours than the pathetic Tory mob
> I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers.
>
> I was just about to post the same thing.
>
> She’s available at 80/1 for next PM and 90/1 for next Conservative leader.
>
> That’s seriously good value. I could see her making it into the final two.
>
> With such a big field I'd say literally anybody could win. I am just doing spreadsheet to work out what the odds of backing every single candidate is if you assume everyone has the same chance.
Johnson is in the lead with Raab two lengths behind and improving on Johnson. Tucked in behind Raab, in a good position on his left, is Gove. Gove is riding an unlikely looking horse but definitely in with a chance. A few lengths back is Hunt and behind Hunt are Leadsom and Stewart neck and neck. Stewart, viewed as a no-hoper, is running a good race so far. The rest of the pack are trailing these six leaders but it's a long race and anything can happen. Lots of fences ahead.
So which of the nags has the staying power of an Altior or a Tiger Roll?
So it’s apparently not OK to listen to the Leader of the Opposition who has circa 260 MPs but is ok to listen to someone who is leader of a party with no MPs at all. Righto.....
> > > > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
>
>
> > > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key. > > > > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history.
> > > The world has changed in the last 30+ years.
>
> > > Thatcherite free marketeers are more interested in Asia than Europe now.
>
> > >
>
> > > Name one.
>
> >
>
> > The likes of Fox, Hannan and Lilico
>
>
>
> That is unfair. He said 1 not 3.
>
> Well let's look at the first one. Liam Fox gave a speech on this very subject in the House of Commons.
>
> He mentions Asia just twice, and on both occasions as part of a list comprising most of the globe. Here is one of them.
>
> "We need to take a balanced approach, acknowledging the continued importance of our EU partners, whilst taking advantage of opportunities beyond the borders of our continent in the high-growth economies of Africa, Asia, and South America. I believe these will be key to our economic success as a Global Britain."
>
> That's in a 3,500 word speech.
>
> So no indication of a specific pivot towards having an active policy of trading with Asia. Nor indeed any suggestion that we plan to withdraw trading activity from Europe.
That is quite stunning. You have quoted something and then made a claim that is utterly refuted by the quote.
The proposition to which I was replying was that Thatcherite free marketeers were more interested in Asia than Europe. The quote indicates equal interest in Europe, Asia, Africa and South America. Try and keep up.
> @argyllrs said: > > @OldKingCole said: > > > @argyllrs said: > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > Given Hammonds comments it must now be odds on for an election in October. > > > > > > > > Parliament breaks on 20th July and returns on 5th September. > > > > > > > > That 5th September sitting may only do one thing - Vote through a general election. > > > > > > Possible scenario: New Prime Minister on 5th says going for new negotiations - can't see a VONC at that point. Four weeks later - says no hope so going to go for WTO. > > > At that point nothing can be done to stop it. VONC means we crash out during GE campaign? > > > > That'd be fun. Shortages in the shops, a blocked M20 and Farage & Johnson running round telling people it'll be all right. Really it will. > > > > Recipe for a LD/SNP Coalition with Labour opposition. > > > > Apologies. Point I'm making is that if a WTO MP becomes PM then as long as they plan it right then we will be out of the EU on 1st Nov on WTO and there is little can be done to stop it.
Which is a kamikaze PM. If a PM of two months calls a GE so that No Deal Brexit kicks-in in the middle of the campaign, when parliament is dissolved, that really would be suicide for the Conservative party and the PM's career.
But back on planet earth, to have a GE called this year the commons needs to vote for it with a 2/3 majority. Just one of the MPs opposing no deal brexit has to realise the PM's ruse which would lead to 1) the 2/3 majority for a GE failing and 2) a VoNC which would almost certainly topple the PM and with it a 31st October Brexit.
So in your view it is always better to listen to your direct opponents than it is potential allies with a generally similar worldview based purely on size?
Aren't the Falkland Islanders lucky you have no influence?
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > We were members for 40 years and failed to make any real impact in that time. The idea of 'changing the EU from the inside' is as bankrupt as a 'pain free No Deal'.
You might not agree with the way British influence was used but the way in which the Single Market happened was British and prioritising eastern enlargement was British. There are sure to be many other examples.
> The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
>
> They never adduce any evidence.
>
> Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
>
>
> The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history.
That’s because they are choosing to believe the myth of Thatcher rather than the reality.
The BXP is not UKIP even if Farage is its leader. Tories should understand this given the Prime Minister of their biggest majority ever was a former Labour Party leader.
As long as Boris does not fudge Brexit such comments will just be background noise that will be forgotten.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > The German government's anti-Semitism commissioner has urged Jews to avoid wearing skullcaps in public. Felix Klein warned Jews against donning the kippa in parts of the country, following a rise in anti-Semitism. > > https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48411735
He said “I cannot advise Jews to wear the kippah everywhere all the time in Germany,” Which is not the same as "advising against wearing skullcaps in public"
"I cannot advise drinking 24 hours a day" is not the same as "advising against having a drink"
So in your view it is always better to listen to your direct opponents than it is potential allies with a generally similar worldview based purely on size?
Aren't the Falkland Islanders lucky you have no influence?
What a stupid analogy.
If you need to get some legislation through Parliament it is generally better to listen to those who are represented in that Parliament than those who aren’t. Listening to someone who has already indicated they want to destroy you is pretty daft.
Yep I love the way the UK influences the EU. After all Cameron had a great impact in stopping Junker becoming President didn't he? What was the vote 26-2 and the Hungarians only voted with us out of protest over another issue.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @OldKingCole said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth. > > > > > > > > > > They never adduce any evidence. > > > > > > > > > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key. > > > > > > > > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history. > > > > > > Only if you believe the Single Market is a genuine free market. Which it isn't. > > > > The EU is a 'work in progress'. It was never going to become 'perfect' overnight. To expect that to come about is as daft as No Deal bringing back the 50's. > > Or something like that. > > We were members for 40 years and failed to make any real impact in that time. The idea of 'changing the EU from the inside' is as bankrupt as a 'pain free No Deal'.
It's only people with no pride in their own country's achievements who make that sort of claim. Agree though that there won't be, and can't be, a pain-free No Deal.
Admittedly, I don't think the 'push to the East', and particularly the South East, was a good idea. At all.
> @BillyBlake said: > @OblitusSumMe > > Yep I love the way the UK influences the EU. After all Cameron had a great impact in stopping Junker becoming President didn't he? What was the vote 26-2 and the Hungarians only voted with us out of protest over another issue. > > I think it sums it up nicely don't you?
The guy had just won the election, trying to stop him at that point was obviously not going to work, as anyone except people who got their information from the British press could have told you.
If Cameron had stayed in the EPP he could have stopped Juncker before he became the candidate, had there been some other plausible candidate he supported. Not that he would have, the whole thing was for show.
If the only thing you get can through Parliament is not worth the paper its written on then and is likely to split your own party asunder then perhaps its advisable to seek wider counsel and look to the future.
May has been forced out by her party because she afforded her Parliamentary opponents too much time and effort and look where its got the Tories? Single figure polling....
The Tories need to rally their potential allies in and out of Parliament not kowtow to those who would crush them.....
they deserved to be chucked out for the cheating lying rats that they were , parasites leeching off the public, enriching themselves and their friends and families.
I already posted Michelle Thompson and Natalie McGarry
> @eristdoof said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > The German government's anti-Semitism commissioner has urged Jews to avoid wearing skullcaps in public. Felix Klein warned Jews against donning the kippa in parts of the country, following a rise in anti-Semitism. > > > > https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48411735 > > He said “I cannot advise Jews to wear the kippah everywhere all the time in Germany,” > Which is not the same as "advising against wearing skullcaps in public" > > > "I cannot advise drinking 24 hours a day" is not the same as "advising against having a drink"
"I cannot advise breathing 24 hours a day" is pretty darn similar to "advising against breathing", though.
> @Stereotomy said: > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > It seems irony is not dead. > > > > It amuses me greatly after a break from this site that people who were cheering on May's deal despite it not having the numbers are haughtily tut tutting that alternatives like "revised deal or no deal" or "direct no deal" don't have the numbers. So what? Seriously literally nothing has the numbers that's why we are in this mess. > > > > The only way to make up the numbers is to get a new option that's not on the table at the moment, or for someone to blink that hasn't yet, or to have an election. > > > > At least the candidates this time are saying what they stand for and seeking a mandate (from the MPs in the governing party and its members) rather than issuing platitudes like Brexit means Brexit. > > This was happening before your break too. A lot of people were hopeful that the indicative votes works prove that no option had enough votes... so that everyone would give up and unite behind May's deal which, er, also didn't have enough votes
Very good point.
Seems like one of Yes, Minister's irregular verbs. I have a reasonable compromise everyone should get behind, you don't have the numbers, he is betraying the country.
Comments
See Red Len's latest comments, which will drive Remain Lab members absolutely mental.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @FF43 said:
> > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > > @FF43 said:
> > >
> > > > > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't.
> > > > >
> > > > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium.
> > >
> > > -----
> > > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke.
> > >
> > > ==============
> > >
> > > If we end up following the rules, which we will do because they are useful to us, it should go without saying that we have more influence if we show up to the meetings where the decisions are being made. And people pay more heed to your interests when making those tricky consensus decisions if you are part of that consensus, compared with if you are not.
> > >
> >
> > So the way to have influence is to agree with everything that the other side wants? Well that is certainly a novel view.
> >
>
> It's not the "other side". It's a consortium of member states with competing as well as shared interests.
That is so wonderfully naïve.
> The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
>
> They never adduce any evidence.
>
> Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
>
>
> The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history.
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > @justin124 said:
> > > > > @NickPalmer said:
> > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > >
> > > > > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum
> > > > > >
> > > > > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet
> > > > >
> > > > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
> > > >
> > > > Maybe Dominic Grieve, Justine Greening ,Philip Lee, Rory Stewart?
> > >
> > > These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time
> > >
> > > Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey
> > >
> > > Add in
> > >
> > > Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote.
> > >
> > > Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary.
> > >
> > > Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal.
> >
> > Nick Boles has already left the Tory ranks - and Guto Bebb has refused to confirm he would vote against a VNOC.
>
> Few of them will confirm voting against on a VONC until necessary as it is an obvious tactical mistake. If they confirm that they would vote for the govt in a VONC they can come off the list. Hammond on Marr refusing to say he would as I type, which suggests to me he would vote against. (Boles would have voted for May in last VONC so counts as a switcher).
Boles has already announced he won't be standing at the next election so he genuinely has nothing to lose.
I don't know what was worse: Mrs May's speech or Lisa dying on Emmerdale. I had a lump in my throat for both of them.
> The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
>
> They never adduce any evidence.
>
> Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
>
>
> The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
IIRC it was Margaret Thatcher who really pushed for the Eastward expansion.
> It seems irony is not dead.
>
> It amuses me greatly after a break from this site that people who were cheering on May's deal despite it not having the numbers are haughtily tut tutting that alternatives like "revised deal or no deal" or "direct no deal" don't have the numbers. So what? Seriously literally nothing has the numbers that's why we are in this mess.
>
> The only way to make up the numbers is to get a new option that's not on the table at the moment, or for someone to blink that hasn't yet, or to have an election.
>
> At least the candidates this time are saying what they stand for and seeking a mandate (from the MPs in the governing party and its members) rather than issuing platitudes like Brexit means Brexit.
The so what is because deadlock is very bad for us. Leaders should lead. That involves thinking through the consequences of their actions. Promising we will no deal in October when it is not in their control is stupid. In a few months time, they will either look weak or be labelled a liar just as May has been.
If you want to argue for no deal, there are much better ways. You could ask for a 1 year extension, start spending 10bn on preparations now, and say there will be a spring general election to get support for the no deal when people have seen the preparations. It might still be a very bad plan but it would be within their control to deliver it.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > > @FF43 said:
> > > > > > @Black_Rook said:
> > > > >
> > > > > > The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get.
> > > > >
> > > > > --------------------
> > > > >
> > > > > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't.
> > > > >
> > > > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium.
> > > >
> > > > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke.
> > >
> > > You reveal your lack of understanding there. Regaining our credibility and influence from here might however be more of a challenge.
> >
> > Um no. I certainly understand our lack of power and influence both inside and outside the EU as long as we remained a member. It is you who seem to have these misconceptions about what influence we actually had.
>
> Which country pushed hardest for the single market?
> Which country pushed hardest for Eastern expansion?
>
> Of course we have significant influence. You may not like how we have used it, or that as 13% of the EU population, the rest of EU rightly and obviously have more influence combined than we do.
That was over 30 years ago. It is like harking back to the war or the world cup as a reason to feel superior to the Germans.
The EU and the world have changed and our membership of the former has greatly reduced our ability to operate in our own best interests in the latter.
> It seems irony is not dead.
>
> It amuses me greatly after a break from this site that people who were cheering on May's deal despite it not having the numbers are haughtily tut tutting that alternatives like "revised deal or no deal" or "direct no deal" don't have the numbers. So what? Seriously literally nothing has the numbers that's why we are in this mess.
>
> The only way to make up the numbers is to get a new option that's not on the table at the moment, or for someone to blink that hasn't yet, or to have an election.
>
> At least the candidates this time are saying what they stand for and seeking a mandate (from the MPs in the governing party and its members) rather than issuing platitudes like Brexit means Brexit.
Its a debate which should have taken place in 2016 - instead they were willing to let May do the work and take the responsibility while they engaged in their own petty scheming.
But I would like evidence that the candidates have done some proper preparation and are willing to show some attention to details.
> The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
>
> They never adduce any evidence.
>
> Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
>
>
> The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
Weren't both of those before you were born?
> Is the Tory party actually going to survive this race intact?
No better than evens IMO.
And Brexit is on the line now, the current view that we are moving toward no deal is wrong, no deal will be killed by this contest and a reversal of Brexit will be looking much more likely by the end of it.
A generation of heavyweight Labour politicians were swept away to be replaced by Michelle Thompson and Natalie McGarry...
Proper Tory politicians are about to get swept away by idiots wearing the "right" badge.
> > @justin124 said:
>
> > > @eristdoof said:
>
> > > > @ydoethur said:
>
> > > > This has got me thinking, is there anyone who has lost a GE and later become prime-minister? Certainly not since the Second World War. Kinnock tried to win this acheivement, and of course Corbyn is attemting it at the moment.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > Attlee. That said, the first election he lost was before the Second World War.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > And of course Heath - 1966 and 1970.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > Churchill also lost his seat in 1908 and 1922. But he had barely re-entered Parliament (and hadn't rejoined the Unionists) before he was made Chancellor.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > Macmillan lost his seat in 1929 and 1945 but recovered to lead the party and be PM.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > Foot also lost at least one seat (in 1959 I think).
>
> > > >
>
> > > > So I'm not sure I accept your premise.
>
> > >
>
> > > When I said "lost", I meant lost a GE as leader of the opposition. So Foot/Macmillan loosing their seats doesn't fall into that category. But thanks for the great information.
>
> > >
>
> > > The big surprise for me here is Heath losing in 1966 and staying on until 1970. So in hist time as leader of the conservatives he won once and lost 3 times.
>
> >
>
> > Gaitskell lost heavily in 1959 and probably would have won in 1964 , had he survived.
>
>
>
> IIRC it seemed likely that Gaitskell would have done better than Wilson actually did.
>
> If he'd done a Blair and lasted three terms we might well have never joined the EU....
No, he wasn't a supporter of European integration.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
> >
> > They never adduce any evidence.
> >
> > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
> >
> >
> > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
>
> IIRC it was Margaret Thatcher who really pushed for the Eastward expansion.
And she did so to try and prevent a deepening of the EU by concentrating on a widening. So that worked out well then....
Italy (5210 polling stations out of 7915): turnout at 16.18% (16.28% in 2014)
> > @FF43 said:
> > It's not the "other side". It's a consortium of member states with competing as well as shared interests.
>
> That is so wonderfully naïve.
----------------------------
It's not naive. It's what it is. The EU is a consortium of member states and is the only show in town in Europe. The UK leaving the European Union is somewhat like Liverpool football club leaving the Football Association. Theoretically possible, but why?
Some point people will have to deal with the EU as it is, rather than as they imagine it to be.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
> >
> > They never adduce any evidence.
> >
> > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
> >
> >
> > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
>
> The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history.
Only if you believe the Single Market is a genuine free market. Which it isn't.
> Is the Tory party actually going to survive this race intact?
>
> This is the key https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132590563935567872
>
>
>
> The tragedy of Brexit will be that it mirrors the aftereffects of Indyref.
>
> A generation of heavyweight Labour politicians were swept away to be replaced by Michelle Thompson and Natalie McGarry...
>
> Proper Tory politicians are about to get swept away by idiots wearing the "right" badge.
It is getting harder and harder to see how the Tories and the UK survive this intact. The basic problem with No Deal is that most people are opposed to it. A party inflicting it on the country despite this will, deservedly, pay a very heavy price. The SNP will clearly include a pledge on an indy referendum in the case of No Deal in their next manifesto.
> So a no-dealer is screwed. But wouldn't that suggest if they did get chosen they would immediately lose a VONC?
>
> https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1132590726125166592
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1132590727907676160
Given the personal costs to those who would have to vote against the Government to result in it losing a VoNC I suspect the only way anyone will actually know for sure will be to let it play out and have the vote. I am not sure Sir Mark will feel he is in a position to second guess that.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
> >
> > They never adduce any evidence.
> >
> > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
> >
> >
> > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
>
> The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history.
The world has changed in the last 30+ years.
Thatcherite free marketeers are more interested in Asia than Europe now.
> So a no-dealer is screwed. But wouldn't that suggest if they did get chosen they would immediately lose a VONC?
>
> https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1132590726125166592
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1132590727907676160
I have been pointing out this question for months.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
>
> >
>
> > They never adduce any evidence.
>
> >
>
> > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
>
>
>
> Weren't both of those before you were born?
>
> No.
Not far off though I would guess. Or have you been lying to us about your age all this time
> > @matt said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> >
> > > > @old_labour said:
> >
> > > > Boris Johnson seeking a quickie divorce from his long suffering wife to get his mistress ensconced in Downing Street. He must think he has the leadership in the bag.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7071209/Boris-Johnson-hopes-finalise-split-estranged-wife-six-weeks.html
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Her Bozzie Bear.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Should we open a bet on how long the relationship will last?
> >
> >
> >
> > I am not sure the country is ready for a PM shacked up at No 10. That probably explains Ed Milliband's decision to get married whilst Labour leader.
> >
> > This opinion brought as a hot take from the 1950s.
>
> Do you think that Thatcher would have become Tory leader had she been 'living in sin' with Denis? Or indeed Theresa May?
Even worse if they have bastard kids, eh, Justin?
> > @Scott_P said:
> > Is the Tory party actually going to survive this race intact?
> >
> > This is the key https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132590563935567872
> >
> >
> >
> > The tragedy of Brexit will be that it mirrors the aftereffects of Indyref.
> >
> > A generation of heavyweight Labour politicians were swept away to be replaced by Michelle Thompson and Natalie McGarry...
> >
> > Proper Tory politicians are about to get swept away by idiots wearing the "right" badge.
>
> It is getting harder and harder to see how the Tories and the UK survive this intact. The basic problem with No Deal is that most people are opposed to it. A party inflicting it on the country despite this will, deservedly, pay a very heavy price. The SNP will clearly include a pledge on an indy referendum in the case of No Deal in their next manifesto.
Good!
> > @rottenborough said:
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
> > >
> > > They never adduce any evidence.
> > >
> > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
> > >
> > >
> > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
> >
> > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history.
>
> Only if you believe the Single Market is a genuine free market. Which it isn't.
The EU is a 'work in progress'. It was never going to become 'perfect' overnight. To expect that to come about is as daft as No Deal bringing back the 50's.
Or something like that.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
> > >
> > > They never adduce any evidence.
> > >
> > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
> > >
> > >
> > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
> >
> > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history.
>
> The world has changed in the last 30+ years.
>
> Thatcherite free marketeers are more interested in Asia than Europe now.
Trouble is....Asia isnt that interested in the UK......major investments have proved a disaster - JLR, Tata steel, Battersea have all become major money pits/embarassments
> > @rottenborough said:
>
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
>
> > >
>
> > > They never adduce any evidence.
>
> > >
>
> > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
>
> >
>
> > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history.
>
>
>
> The world has changed in the last 30+ years.
>
>
>
> Thatcherite free marketeers are more interested in Asia than Europe now.
>
> Name one.
The likes of Fox, Hannan and Lilico
> https://twitter.com/Freedland/status/1132586275775700992
LOL
>
> I have been pointing out this question for months.
It could be the second Tory leadership election in a row where all the candidates destroy themselves, and at the end Theresa May emerges from the rubble.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > Is the Tory party actually going to survive this race intact?
> >
> > This is the key https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132590563935567872
> >
> >
> >
> > The tragedy of Brexit will be that it mirrors the aftereffects of Indyref.
> >
> > A generation of heavyweight Labour politicians were swept away to be replaced by Michelle Thompson and Natalie McGarry...
> >
> > Proper Tory politicians are about to get swept away by idiots wearing the "right" badge.
>
> It is getting harder and harder to see how the Tories and the UK survive this intact. The basic problem with No Deal is that most people are opposed to it. A party inflicting it on the country despite this will, deservedly, pay a very heavy price. The SNP will clearly include a pledge on an indy referendum in the case of No Deal in their next manifesto.
It will soon become clear that a PM committed to no deal will not be able to command a majority in parliament. So the Tories will either have to accept that no deal is off the table or hold a general election. And either of those outcomes will probably break the party.
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > Theresa May is already beginning to look rather good in retrospect, isn't she?
>
> Is this in the same way you thought Cameron's renegotiation with the EU was rather good?
Harsh but fair
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48411735
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
> > > >
> > > > They never adduce any evidence.
> > > >
> > > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
> > >
> > > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history.
> >
> > The world has changed in the last 30+ years.
> >
> > Thatcherite free marketeers are more interested in Asia than Europe now.
>
> Trouble is....Asia isnt that interested in the UK......major investments have proved a disaster - JLR, Tata steel, Battersea have all become major money pits/embarassments
Ultimately I think we return to the question I posed here over a decade ago:
In a globalised world how does the UK compete with countries which are as intelligent and educated as we are and are willing to work harder, for lower wages and under fewer restrictions.
Parliament breaks on 20th July and returns on 5th September.
That 5th September sitting may only do one thing - Vote through a general election.
> > @Recidivist said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> >
> > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> >
> > > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > They never adduce any evidence.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history.
> >
> >
> >
> > The world has changed in the last 30+ years.
> >
> >
> >
> > Thatcherite free marketeers are more interested in Asia than Europe now.
> >
> > Name one.
>
> The likes of Fox, Hannan and Lilico
That is unfair. He said 1 not 3.
> > @Scott_P said:
>
> > So a no-dealer is screwed. But wouldn't that suggest if they did get chosen they would immediately lose a VONC?
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1132590726125166592
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1132590727907676160
>
>
>
>
>
> I have been pointing out this question for months.
>
> I don't see the problem for the Queen. Of course she can't appoint a PM who cannot command the confidence of the House.
The only way to know that is if the HoC passes a VONC.
> Given Hammonds comments it must now be odds on for an election in October.
>
> Parliament breaks on 20th July and returns on 5th September.
>
> That 5th September sitting may only do one thing - Vote through a general election.
The Tory party has collectively lost their mind, from appearing to want Boris to be leader to enabling Corbyn to become PM.
> > @Scott_P said:
>
> > So a no-dealer is screwed. But wouldn't that suggest if they did get chosen they would immediately lose a VONC?
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1132590726125166592
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1132590727907676160
>
>
>
>
>
> I have been pointing out this question for months.
>
> I don't see the problem for the Queen. Of course she can't appoint a PM who cannot command the confidence of the House.
So who does she appoint and how is that person identified? The simplest route is to leave Theresa May in office, wait for a vote of no confidence and see what emerges from the chaos. But that would be hugely controversial.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Given Hammonds comments it must now be odds on for an election in October.
> >
> > Parliament breaks on 20th July and returns on 5th September.
> >
> > That 5th September sitting may only do one thing - Vote through a general election.
>
> The Tory party has collectively lost their mind, from appearing to want Boris to be leader to enabling Corbyn to become PM.
When it comes to it the money grubbing tory bastards wont end their own pocket lining career by a VONC.
https://twitter.com/Coldwar_Steve/status/1131293904018509825
> We are going to end up with the players in UK politics being Corbyn, Farage, Sturgeon, Jo Swinson and Boris. Jesus. Change better get their act together, we need something to save us!
Nothing wrong with Sturgeon or Swinson. Preferably, I think, the former.
Summer recess , a new commission won’t come in till after October 31st . So effectively those willing to say they’ll take the UK out deal or no deal are essentially saying it’s just no deal .
Loads of legislation even for no deal is backed up as the government is too scared to bring it back .
> Given Hammonds comments it must now be odds on for an election in October.
>
> Parliament breaks on 20th July and returns on 5th September.
>
> That 5th September sitting may only do one thing - Vote through a general election.
Possible scenario: New Prime Minister on 5th says going for new negotiations - can't see a VONC at that point. Four weeks later - says no hope so going to go for WTO.
At that point nothing can be done to stop it. VONC means we crash out during GE campaign?
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/1117742456680873984?s=21
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Given Hammonds comments it must now be odds on for an election in October.
> >
> > Parliament breaks on 20th July and returns on 5th September.
> >
> > That 5th September sitting may only do one thing - Vote through a general election.
>
> Possible scenario: New Prime Minister on 5th says going for new negotiations - can't see a VONC at that point. Four weeks later - says no hope so going to go for WTO.
> At that point nothing can be done to stop it. VONC means we crash out during GE campaign?
A VONC does not lead directly to a GE. Letwin or similar would be PM to revoke and resign.
Boris wins leadership on a No Deal ticket. For once he doesn't do his standard trick and deny he ever said such a thing the day after the result is announced.
May goes to Palace to resign.
Queen has been informed by civil service that Boris would not be likely to command a majority.
Queen asks May to stay on, while they sort the mess out.
May says no. I have done the duty thing and I aint doing it anymore. Advises the Queen that she invites Liddington. Or even Ken Clarke. Or Chris Grayling.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Given Hammonds comments it must now be odds on for an election in October.
> >
> > Parliament breaks on 20th July and returns on 5th September.
> >
> > That 5th September sitting may only do one thing - Vote through a general election.
>
> Possible scenario: New Prime Minister on 5th says going for new negotiations - can't see a VONC at that point. Four weeks later - says no hope so going to go for WTO.
> At that point nothing can be done to stop it. VONC means we crash out during GE campaign?
That'd be fun. Shortages in the shops, a blocked M20 and Farage & Johnson running round telling people it'll be all right. Really it will.
Recipe for a LD/SNP Coalition with Labour opposition.
> https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1132597427033317376
If the new leader can’t command a majority, the easiest thing is for May not to resign as PM.
> Next PM book could get interesting.
>
> Boris wins leadership on a No Deal ticket. For once he doesn't do his standard trick and deny he ever said such a thing the day after the result is announced.
>
> May goes to Palace to resign.
>
> Queen has been informed by civil service that Boris would not be likely to command a majority.
>
> Queen asks May to stay on, while they sort the mess out.
>
> May says no. I have done the duty thing and I aint doing it anymore. Advises the Queen that she invites Liddington. Or even Ken Clarke. Or Chris Grayling.
I like your fantasy (two thirds of it anyway).
> So who does she appoint and how is that person identified? The simplest route is to leave Theresa May in office, wait for a vote of no confidence and see what emerges from the chaos. But that would be hugely controversial.
The problem doesn't arise. All (at least most?) the no-dealers say they will renegotiate first. Even though, in practice, that is a fantasy, it is a fantasy that will enable the anti-no-dealers to roll over and allow the no-dealer to take office.
> It seems irony is not dead.
>
> It amuses me greatly after a break from this site that people who were cheering on May's deal despite it not having the numbers are haughtily tut tutting that alternatives like "revised deal or no deal" or "direct no deal" don't have the numbers. So what? Seriously literally nothing has the numbers that's why we are in this mess.
>
> The only way to make up the numbers is to get a new option that's not on the table at the moment, or for someone to blink that hasn't yet, or to have an election.
>
> At least the candidates this time are saying what they stand for and seeking a mandate (from the MPs in the governing party and its members) rather than issuing platitudes like Brexit means Brexit.
This was happening before your break too. A lot of people were hopeful that the indicative votes works prove that no option had enough votes... so that everyone would give up and unite behind May's deal which, er, also didn't have enough votes
> > @argyllrs said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > Given Hammonds comments it must now be odds on for an election in October.
> > >
> > > Parliament breaks on 20th July and returns on 5th September.
> > >
> > > That 5th September sitting may only do one thing - Vote through a general election.
> >
> > Possible scenario: New Prime Minister on 5th says going for new negotiations - can't see a VONC at that point. Four weeks later - says no hope so going to go for WTO.
> > At that point nothing can be done to stop it. VONC means we crash out during GE campaign?
>
> That'd be fun. Shortages in the shops, a blocked M20 and Farage & Johnson running round telling people it'll be all right. Really it will.
>
> Recipe for a LD/SNP Coalition with Labour opposition.
>
Apologies. Point I'm making is that if a WTO MP becomes PM then as long as they plan it right then we will be out of the EU on 1st Nov on WTO and there is little can be done to stop it.
He mentions Asia just twice, and on both occasions as part of a list comprising most of the globe. Here is one of them.
"We need to take a balanced approach, acknowledging the continued importance of our EU partners, whilst taking advantage of opportunities beyond the borders of our continent in the high-growth economies of Africa, Asia, and South America. I believe these will be key to our economic success as a Global Britain."
That's in a 3,500 word speech.
So no indication of a specific pivot towards having an active policy of trading with Asia. Nor indeed any suggestion that we plan to withdraw trading activity from Europe.
https://www.liamfox.co.uk/news/dr-liam-foxs-opening-statement-european-union-withdrawal-agreement-parliamentary-debate
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
> > > >
> > > > They never adduce any evidence.
> > > >
> > > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
> > >
> > > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history.
> >
> > Only if you believe the Single Market is a genuine free market. Which it isn't.
>
> The EU is a 'work in progress'. It was never going to become 'perfect' overnight. To expect that to come about is as daft as No Deal bringing back the 50's.
> Or something like that.
We were members for 40 years and failed to make any real impact in that time. The idea of 'changing the EU from the inside' is as bankrupt as a 'pain free No Deal'.
> > @another_richard said:
>
> > > @Recidivist said:
>
> > > > @rottenborough said:
>
> > >
>
> > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > >
>
> > > > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
>
> > >
>
> > > > >
>
> > >
>
> > > > > They never adduce any evidence.
>
> > >
>
> > > > >
>
> > >
>
> > > > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
>
> > >
>
> > > > >
>
> > >
>
> > > > >
>
> > >
>
> > > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
>
> > >
>
> > > >
>
> > >
>
> > > > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > The world has changed in the last 30+ years.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > Thatcherite free marketeers are more interested in Asia than Europe now.
>
> > >
>
> > > Name one.
>
> >
>
> > The likes of Fox, Hannan and Lilico
>
>
>
> That is unfair. He said 1 not 3.
>
> Well let's look at the first one. Liam Fox gave a speech on this very subject in the House of Commons.
>
> He mentions Asia just twice, and on both occasions as part of a list comprising most of the globe. Here is one of them.
>
> "We need to take a balanced approach, acknowledging the continued importance of our EU partners, whilst taking advantage of opportunities beyond the borders of our continent in the high-growth economies of Africa, Asia, and South America. I believe these will be key to our economic success as a Global Britain."
>
> That's in a 3,500 word speech.
>
> So no indication of a specific pivot towards having an active policy of trading with Asia. Nor indeed any suggestion that we plan to withdraw trading activity from Europe.
>
> https://www.liamfox.co.uk/news/dr-liam-foxs-opening-statement-european-union-withdrawal-agreement-parliamentary-debate
That is quite stunning. You have quoted something and then made a claim that is utterly refuted by the quote.
> > @argyllrs said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > Given Hammonds comments it must now be odds on for an election in October.
> > >
> > > Parliament breaks on 20th July and returns on 5th September.
> > >
> > > That 5th September sitting may only do one thing - Vote through a general election.
> >
> > Possible scenario: New Prime Minister on 5th says going for new negotiations - can't see a VONC at that point. Four weeks later - says no hope so going to go for WTO.
> > At that point nothing can be done to stop it. VONC means we crash out during GE campaign?
>
> A VONC does not lead directly to a GE. Letwin or similar would be PM to revoke and resign.
Not so. They themselves would have to have a majority in Parliament to take over as PM and that is no more likely than the person they would have just defeated.
> In all seriousness, does anybody think Tory members would not prefer a straight no deal candidate over someone saying 'we'll negotiate the backstop for the millionth time, and no deal if that fails'?
Yup. However I think MPs will be reluctant to give them the option of a person they think would actually do that, since it would result in a very dangerous general election for them.
The upshot is that the winning candidate wants to be able to:
1) Persuade MPs they won't do No Deal to get on the ballot
2) Persuade members they definitely will do No Deal to win the election
3) Persuade MPs they won't do No Deal again to get through a confidence vote
This makes the case for Boris, because the MPs know not to believe anything he says and just wants to be PM, whereas the members are probably only dimly aware of this.
https://www.twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1132593004886335488
> https://twitter.com/thejeremyvine/status/1132603132222091265
SADDDDDDDDD.....Maybe it is a big city / London thing?
I am lucky that the street I live on is exactly the opposite. And the same was true on pretty much every place I have lived.
Now: Boris 35%, Raab 18%, Gove 14%, Jezza 7%, Leadsom 4%, Rory 4%. A few around 3%: Hancock, Mordaunt, Baker.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1132595526929661952
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > > @argyllrs said:
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > Given Hammonds comments it must now be odds on for an election in October.
> > > >
> > > > Parliament breaks on 20th July and returns on 5th September.
> > > >
> > > > That 5th September sitting may only do one thing - Vote through a general election.
> > >
> > > Possible scenario: New Prime Minister on 5th says going for new negotiations - can't see a VONC at that point. Four weeks later - says no hope so going to go for WTO.
> > > At that point nothing can be done to stop it. VONC means we crash out during GE campaign?
> >
> > That'd be fun. Shortages in the shops, a blocked M20 and Farage & Johnson running round telling people it'll be all right. Really it will.
> >
> > Recipe for a LD/SNP Coalition with Labour opposition.
> >
>
> Apologies. Point I'm making is that if a WTO MP becomes PM then as long as they plan it right then we will be out of the EU on 1st Nov on WTO and there is little can be done to stop it.
Which is a kamikaze PM. If a PM of two months calls a GE so that No Deal Brexit kicks-in in the middle of the campaign, when parliament is dissolved, that really would be suicide for the Conservative party and the PM's career.
But back on planet earth, to have a GE called this year the commons needs to vote for it with a 2/3 majority. Just one of the MPs opposing no deal brexit has to realise the PM's ruse which would lead to 1) the 2/3 majority for a GE failing and 2) a VoNC which would almost certainly topple the PM and with it a 31st October Brexit.
So in your view it is always better to listen to your direct opponents than it is potential allies with a generally similar worldview based purely on size?
Aren't the Falkland Islanders lucky you have no influence?
> We were members for 40 years and failed to make any real impact in that time. The idea of 'changing the EU from the inside' is as bankrupt as a 'pain free No Deal'.
You might not agree with the way British influence was used but the way in which the Single Market happened was British and prioritising eastern enlargement was British. There are sure to be many other examples.
As long as Boris does not fudge Brexit such comments will just be background noise that will be forgotten.
> The German government's anti-Semitism commissioner has urged Jews to avoid wearing skullcaps in public. Felix Klein warned Jews against donning the kippa in parts of the country, following a rise in anti-Semitism.
>
> https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48411735
He said “I cannot advise Jews to wear the kippah everywhere all the time in Germany,”
Which is not the same as "advising against wearing skullcaps in public"
"I cannot advise drinking 24 hours a day" is not the same as "advising against having a drink"
If you need to get some legislation through Parliament it is generally better to listen to those who are represented in that Parliament than those who aren’t. Listening to someone who has already indicated they want to destroy you is pretty daft.
Yep I love the way the UK influences the EU. After all Cameron had a great impact in stopping Junker becoming President didn't he? What was the vote 26-2 and the Hungarians only voted with us out of protest over another issue.
I think it sums it up nicely don't you?
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > > > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
> > > > >
> > > > > They never adduce any evidence.
> > > > >
> > > > > Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
> > > >
> > > > The way Thatcherite free marketeers have walked away from the single market is one of the mysteries of modern political history.
> > >
> > > Only if you believe the Single Market is a genuine free market. Which it isn't.
> >
> > The EU is a 'work in progress'. It was never going to become 'perfect' overnight. To expect that to come about is as daft as No Deal bringing back the 50's.
> > Or something like that.
>
> We were members for 40 years and failed to make any real impact in that time. The idea of 'changing the EU from the inside' is as bankrupt as a 'pain free No Deal'.
It's only people with no pride in their own country's achievements who make that sort of claim.
Agree though that there won't be, and can't be, a pain-free No Deal.
Admittedly, I don't think the 'push to the East', and particularly the South East, was a good idea. At all.
> @OblitusSumMe
>
> Yep I love the way the UK influences the EU. After all Cameron had a great impact in stopping Junker becoming President didn't he? What was the vote 26-2 and the Hungarians only voted with us out of protest over another issue.
>
> I think it sums it up nicely don't you?
The guy had just won the election, trying to stop him at that point was obviously not going to work, as anyone except people who got their information from the British press could have told you.
If Cameron had stayed in the EPP he could have stopped Juncker before he became the candidate, had there been some other plausible candidate he supported. Not that he would have, the whole thing was for show.
If the only thing you get can through Parliament is not worth the paper its written on then and is likely to split your own party asunder then perhaps its advisable to seek wider counsel and look to the future.
May has been forced out by her party because she afforded her Parliamentary opponents too much time and effort and look where its got the Tories? Single figure polling....
The Tories need to rally their potential allies in and out of Parliament not kowtow to those who would crush them.....
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > The German government's anti-Semitism commissioner has urged Jews to avoid wearing skullcaps in public. Felix Klein warned Jews against donning the kippa in parts of the country, following a rise in anti-Semitism.
> >
> > https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48411735
>
> He said “I cannot advise Jews to wear the kippah everywhere all the time in Germany,”
> Which is not the same as "advising against wearing skullcaps in public"
>
>
> "I cannot advise drinking 24 hours a day" is not the same as "advising against having a drink"
"I cannot advise breathing 24 hours a day" is pretty darn similar to "advising against breathing", though.
> > @Philip_Thompson said:
> > It seems irony is not dead.
> >
> > It amuses me greatly after a break from this site that people who were cheering on May's deal despite it not having the numbers are haughtily tut tutting that alternatives like "revised deal or no deal" or "direct no deal" don't have the numbers. So what? Seriously literally nothing has the numbers that's why we are in this mess.
> >
> > The only way to make up the numbers is to get a new option that's not on the table at the moment, or for someone to blink that hasn't yet, or to have an election.
> >
> > At least the candidates this time are saying what they stand for and seeking a mandate (from the MPs in the governing party and its members) rather than issuing platitudes like Brexit means Brexit.
>
> This was happening before your break too. A lot of people were hopeful that the indicative votes works prove that no option had enough votes... so that everyone would give up and unite behind May's deal which, er, also didn't have enough votes
Very good point.
Seems like one of Yes, Minister's irregular verbs. I have a reasonable compromise everyone should get behind, you don't have the numbers, he is betraying the country.