> @kle4 said: > > @NickPalmer said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum > > > > > > > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet > > > > > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else? > > > > ************************************************************************* > > > > The Tory Remainer rebels didn't fold on no deal. On the contrary. > > > > Can you imagine Hammond, Grieve, Letwin, Rudd etc supporting a hard no dealer if there is a softer alternative in the runner up. > > > > Incidentally I don't think Boris is a no dealer though he has to pretend to be. Farage has seen that. > > If he wins he will have no choice but to follow through if he cannot deliver something new .
Why do you suppose Johnson will do something he's promised to do?
Other than in Scotland, most of the Conservative party membership and core vote are now Leavers, and virtually all of their potential converts are Leavers as well. If Tory MPs go into a GE later this year on a platform of implementing the Withdrawal Agreement (which is the natural consequence of putting in a continuity May leader,) or going back to the EU and asking for Norway+CU instead, then it's all over. The Brexit Party would eat them alive.
+++++++++++++++
So, if I want
- no ECJ supremacy over UK law - no FoM - no large payments to the EU
But
- a sensible and friendly approach to our neighbours
JV- New Unity (EPP) 2 seats Social Democratic Party "Harmony" 2 seats NA (National Alliance, they are in ECR)- 1 seat API (Europhile Liberals) 1 seat LKS (Latvian Russian Union) 1 seat
Last seat in in play between: a second seat for NA, a seat for ZZS (Greesn and farmers) and a third seat for JV
I doubt 20 odd Tories will VONC their own government .
It’s however easier to do it if you’ve already left the party . So some of those might just resign the whip and sit as independents or join the Lib Dems .
To VONC from there would be easier. I’m dubious though that even then they’d reach 20.
> Looks like the likes of Grieve, Lee and other remainers would, in extreme circumstances, attempt to stop a damaging no deal
I'm sure they would - absolutely that they'd vote for a motion instructing the Government to accept the WA, for instance. But support an Opposition VONC? Not convinced. And short of that, Boris or Raab or whoever can simply shrug and let No Deal happen.
If they dont act then then their words on no deal have totally meaningless. They are so fanatical I actually think at that point, though not before, they would act.
> @Black_Rook said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > Yes nearly all the Tory party will accept a deal, that does not mean they will fold and accept no deal, they are absolutely clear they will not. > > The electoral market for a wet centre-right, BINO option in any future GE will probably be roughly reflected in whatever is left of the Tory vote in this European election. I'd be shocked if that were much more than 10%. > > Other than in Scotland, most of the Conservative party membership and core vote are now Leavers, and virtually all of their potential converts are Leavers as well. If Tory MPs go into a GE later this year on a platform of implementing the Withdrawal Agreement (which is the natural consequence of putting in a continuity May leader,) or going back to the EU and asking for Norway+CU instead, then it's all over. The Brexit Party would eat them alive.
I am not suggesting what Tory party policy is going to be or should be, I am pointing out that there are at least a dozen, probably more like 20-30 Tory MPs who will block no deal. It will not be in the gift of a Tory leader to no deal, so any no deal candidate must have a plan B (GE which is also unlikely to work) and a plan C (?????) or they are promising things they cannot deliver.
By far the quickest and most realistic way to deliver no deal is via a 2nd referendum, will any of the candidates campaingn on that? We keep hearing about how a remain parliament is not reflective of the country yet the no-dealers keep insisting we go through parliament rather than the country! They are not very good at maths.
@williamglenn said: The UK remaining in a customs union isn't sufficient to avoid treating Northern Ireland differently, which is why the single customs territory backstop is still unacceptable to them.
I think the DUP's tactical support for No Deal is similar to the ERG's but they just have very different bottom lines.
++++++++++
For once, I don't think we disagree.
The DUP would like us out of the EU, but don't really want anything to change in Northern Ireland, and would like no barriers between Great Britain and Ulster.
> > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum
>
> > >
>
> > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet
>
> >
>
> > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
> The Tory Remainer rebels didn't fold on no deal. On the contrary.
>
>
>
> Can you imagine Hammond, Grieve, Letwin, Rudd etc supporting a hard no dealer if there is a softer alternative in the runner up.
>
>
>
> Incidentally I don't think Boris is a no dealer though he has to pretend to be. Farage has seen that.
>
> If he wins he will have no choice but to follow through if he cannot deliver something new .
Why do you suppose Johnson will do something he's promised to do?
Because he would be destroyed if he doesnt. May was unwilling to trash the country, as she saw it, by backing no deal. Boris publicly thinks no deal is ok already. Even if he has an epiphany that it would be terrible I have no doubt that unlike May he would be willing to try it rather than tank his own support.
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Mr. Sandpit, yeah, odds too short to tempt on no safety car. > > Be glad when we can move on from Monaco. Canada's next. A circuit that's fast and has overtaking. Gosh.
> @eristdoof said: > > @ydoethur said: > > This has got me thinking, is there anyone who has lost a GE and later become prime-minister? Certainly not since the Second World War. Kinnock tried to win this acheivement, and of course Corbyn is attemting it at the moment. > > > > Attlee. That said, the first election he lost was before the Second World War. > > > > And of course Heath - 1966 and 1970. > > > > Churchill also lost his seat in 1908 and 1922. But he had barely re-entered Parliament (and hadn't rejoined the Unionists) before he was made Chancellor. > > > > Macmillan lost his seat in 1929 and 1945 but recovered to lead the party and be PM. > > > > Foot also lost at least one seat (in 1959 I think). > > > > So I'm not sure I accept your premise. > > When I said "lost", I meant lost a GE as leader of the opposition. So Foot/Macmillan loosing their seats doesn't fall into that category. But thanks for the great information. > > The big surprise for me here is Heath losing in 1966 and staying on until 1970. So in hist time as leader of the conservatives he won once and lost 3 times.
Gaitskell lost heavily in 1959 and probably would have won in 1964 , had he survived.
Other than in Scotland, most of the Conservative party membership and core vote are now Leavers, and virtually all of their potential converts are Leavers as well. If Tory MPs go into a GE later this year on a platform of implementing the Withdrawal Agreement (which is the natural consequence of putting in a continuity May leader,) or going back to the EU and asking for Norway+CU instead, then it's all over. The Brexit Party would eat them alive.
+++++++++++++++
So, if I want
- no ECJ supremacy over UK law
- no FoM
- no large payments to the EU
But
- a sensible and friendly approach to our neighbours
Who should I vote for?
You might just as well ask: 'if I want low taxes, low borrowing and high public spending who should I vote for?'
Your criteria are incompatible: a sensible and friendly approach to our neighbours is EU membership.
> @rcs1000 said: > @JackW said: > Additionally for McVey to state that a fully functioning would be in place by the end of October is risible. > > +++++++++++++++ > > I wouldn't disagree with that. I think it's a three year project if properly managed. > > So, probably five years is realistic. ----------------------
However long you spend on it, a proper No Deal plan needs to include a different approach for Northern Ireland, so trying to prepare for No Deal creates the same political problems as negotiating a deal.
Other than in Scotland, most of the Conservative party membership and core vote are now Leavers, and virtually all of their potential converts are Leavers as well. If Tory MPs go into a GE later this year on a platform of implementing the Withdrawal Agreement (which is the natural consequence of putting in a continuity May leader,) or going back to the EU and asking for Norway+CU instead, then it's all over. The Brexit Party would eat them alive.
+++++++++++++++
So, if I want
- no ECJ supremacy over UK law
- no FoM
- no large payments to the EU
But
- a sensible and friendly approach to our neighbours
Who should I vote for?
You dont. We will shortly have the no deal party, remain party (referendum), remain party (revoke) and another no deal party.
> @justin124 said: > > @eristdoof said: > > > @ydoethur said: > > > This has got me thinking, is there anyone who has lost a GE and later become prime-minister? Certainly not since the Second World War. Kinnock tried to win this acheivement, and of course Corbyn is attemting it at the moment. > > > > > > Attlee. That said, the first election he lost was before the Second World War. > > > > > > And of course Heath - 1966 and 1970. > > > > > > Churchill also lost his seat in 1908 and 1922. But he had barely re-entered Parliament (and hadn't rejoined the Unionists) before he was made Chancellor. > > > > > > Macmillan lost his seat in 1929 and 1945 but recovered to lead the party and be PM. > > > > > > Foot also lost at least one seat (in 1959 I think). > > > > > > So I'm not sure I accept your premise. > > > > When I said "lost", I meant lost a GE as leader of the opposition. So Foot/Macmillan loosing their seats doesn't fall into that category. But thanks for the great information. > > > > The big surprise for me here is Heath losing in 1966 and staying on until 1970. So in hist time as leader of the conservatives he won once and lost 3 times. > > Gaitskell lost heavily in 1959 and probably would have won in 1964 , had he survived.
IIRC it seemed likely that Gaitskell would have done better than Wilson actually did.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @kle4 said: > > https://twitter.com/EstherMcVey1/status/1132544349596733442 > > > > > > > > So going directly for no deal not seeking a unicorn renegotiation. Thats something at least. > > > > I am amazed if anybody thinks any version of the WA will be approved . What candidate with a chance is going to suggest that in a realistic way? And the simplicity of 'just leave' is so much easier than 'we will leave but I shall try to x and y first' > > It does seem as if we are going to have to go through a No Deal process. The good thing is that Johnson or whoever will own it and its consequences totally, having chosen to follow that path in the knowledge that the majority of the country was opposed.
McVey is my Dark horse at 85. That's a 'brave' statement to make. Guessing she thinks that this line is a winner with grass roots. Whether she can make the last two to test this theory I don't know.
Of what I've heard Rory is a no-hoper. His view is that Maybots failed line was the correct one and he would continue with it???
The UK remaining in a customs union isn't sufficient to avoid treating Northern Ireland differently, which is why the single customs territory backstop is still unacceptable to them.
I think the DUP's tactical support for No Deal is similar to the ERG's but they just have very different bottom lines.
++++++++++
For once, I don't think we disagree.
The DUP would like us out of the EU, but don't really want anything to change in Northern Ireland, and would like no barriers between Great Britain and Ulster.
More than that they want something to act the victim over and posture about their patriotism.
> @williamglenn said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > @JackW said: > > Additionally for McVey to state that a fully functioning would be in place by the end of October is risible. > > > > +++++++++++++++ > > > > I wouldn't disagree with that. I think it's a three year project if properly managed. > > > > So, probably five years is realistic. > ---------------------- > > However long you spend on it, a proper No Deal plan needs to include a different approach for Northern Ireland, so trying to prepare for No Deal creates the same political problems as negotiating a deal.
I don't think there's ever been a calm rational way forward set out for No Deal.
In all seriousness, does anybody think Tory members would not prefer a straight no deal candidate over someone saying 'we'll negotiate the backstop for the millionth time, and no deal if that fails'?
> Mr. Sandpit, yeah, odds too short to tempt on no safety car.
>
> Be glad when we can move on from Monaco. Canada's next. A circuit that's fast and has overtaking. Gosh.
It's just started raining if that helps.
Whereabouts? The Porsche race is just finishing and there’s no obvious rain on the screen - but there’s definitely a good chance of some in the next few hours.
> @Benpointer said: > @Black_Rook said: > > > > Other than in Scotland, most of the Conservative party membership and core vote are now Leavers, and virtually all of their potential converts are Leavers as well. If Tory MPs go into a GE later this year on a platform of implementing the Withdrawal Agreement (which is the natural consequence of putting in a continuity May leader,) or going back to the EU and asking for Norway+CU instead, then it's all over. The Brexit Party would eat them alive. > > > > +++++++++++++++ > > > > So, if I want > > > > - no ECJ supremacy over UK law > > - no FoM > > - no large payments to the EU > > > > But > > > > - a sensible and friendly approach to our neighbours > > > > Who should I vote for? > > You might just as well ask: 'if I want low taxes, low borrowing and high public spending who should I vote for?' > > Your criteria are incompatible: a sensible and friendly approach to our neighbours is EU membership.
We tried that for 40 years and it failed.
One of the amusing things since 2016 has been Remainers telling us that every EU country will have a list of demands before they agree to anything.
Whereas before 2016 we were always told that the UK shouldn't demand anything but should agree to everything in the hope of some future support.
> @Foxy said: > One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2. > > If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM. > > The nuttiest of the final 2 will win. > > Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves
I've got a feeling it's going to be between Gove and Leadsom. So on your metric it'll be a dead heat.
> > So going directly for no deal not seeking a unicorn renegotiation. Thats something at least.
> >
> > I am amazed if anybody thinks any version of the WA will be approved . What candidate with a chance is going to suggest that in a realistic way? And the simplicity of 'just leave' is so much easier than 'we will leave but I shall try to x and y first'
>
> It does seem as if we are going to have to go through a No Deal process. The good thing is that Johnson or whoever will own it and its consequences totally, having chosen to follow that path in the knowledge that the majority of the country was opposed.
McVey is my Dark horse at 85. That's a 'brave' statement to make. Guessing she thinks that this line is a winner with grass roots. Whether she can make the last two to test this theory I don't know.
Of what I've heard Rory is a no-hoper. His view is that Maybots failed line was the correct one and he would continue with it???
Pretty much. Just there to add variety to the others all finding a fresh way to offer unicorns and back no deal.
I don't think the problem of antisemitism or Anti-islam is worse in Germany than in Britain, they are about the same. Antisemitism in Germany is reported more because of the country's history. I am not claiming that anti-semitc or anti-islamic abuse is not a problem.
The level of abuse against people simply speaking the local language well but with a foreign* accent is a problem at the moment in England, but is insignificant in Germany.
(*for convenience by foreign accent I mean one not coming from UK, Ireland, USA, Aus, NZ, or any other Anglo-English country)
An anecdote (apologies as I've said this before on here, but it seems relevant):
Mrs J is Turkish: but she is a very westernised Turk with virtually no accent when she speaks English, and the quality of her spoken English is better than mine. Until recently she has suffered virtually no racism here in the UK because, as she puts it, "she fits in."
A few years back we drove to Austria through Germany for a wedding. We spent a night at a motel in the middle of Germany, and on the way down to the petrol station to book in, we received racial abuse from some men standing by their cars - from memory, on the way there and the way back. Mrs J was wearing (as ever) western clothes.
Our first night in Germany, when we hadn't even spoken to the men. It appears anyone with olive skin is worthy of abuse.
So I don't believe that racism and Islamaphobia (and I will continue to use that term, not the crap 'anti-Islamic' term) is not a problem in Germany.
> @rcs1000 said: > @Black_Rook said: > > Other than in Scotland, most of the Conservative party membership and core vote are now Leavers, and virtually all of their potential converts are Leavers as well. If Tory MPs go into a GE later this year on a platform of implementing the Withdrawal Agreement (which is the natural consequence of putting in a continuity May leader,) or going back to the EU and asking for Norway+CU instead, then it's all over. The Brexit Party would eat them alive. > > +++++++++++++++ > > So, if I want > > - no ECJ supremacy over UK law > - no FoM > - no large payments to the EU > > But > > - a sensible and friendly approach to our neighbours > > Who should I vote for?
Nobody.
The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise.
This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get.
We'll never know what would have happened in 2017 had May got a majority. It simply astonishes me that the unionists in Northern Ireland would be pro-brexit and a disgrace that their leaders did not set out the implications of Brexit to the people there - even though Major Blair and Brown made it clear.
One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2.
If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM.
The nuttiest of the final 2 will win.
Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves
If that were all we could just let them get on with it. It’s that they want to consume the rest of us which is worrying.
McVey is an idiot. What does “clean break” actually mean?
I suspect it means leaving without entering into an alternative set of special arrangements beyond that which govern all states. It isn't without sense. Is now a time to be entering into new commitments, when everyone is in such a tizzy about leaving the old ones?
One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2.
If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM.
The nuttiest of the final 2 will win.
Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves
If that were all we could just let them get on with it. It’s that they want to consume the rest of us which is worrying.
McVey is an idiot. What does “clean break” actually mean?
It's the friendly way of saying no deal no matter the cost, like how people use peoples vote rather than second referendum because it sounds better.
Does a “clean break” mean that we don’t pay the EU what we legally owe? Because that takes us straight to legal action and problems in the bond market (our deficit and debt say hello). That’s just one of the many questions which need answering.
And as for the cost - who pays it? And if it’s high how will Ms McVey persuade those paying it to vote for the party thereafter? Etc etc....
Gove versus Hunt is the least worst outcome for the Conservative Party and the country.
However, the banter heuristic demands McVey versus that upskirt MP from Christchurch.
I'm not sure you're right about Gove v Hunt being better for the party. For the party the best is whoever is the most no dealey and can thus recover BXP support. Sure theyd probably lose a swift GE but theyd have the largest base to build from. Any other option they lose masses of support.
> @Roger said: > > @Foxy said: > > One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2. > > > > If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM. > > > > The nuttiest of the final 2 will win. > > > > Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves > > I've got a feeling it's going to be between Gove and Leadsom. So on your metric it'll be a dead heat.
Guess No dealers will coalesce around either Baker/McVey, then Raab and the better placed of the other two. Then I see a three way of Gove, Boris or No Dealer for last two places - and I would want good value at that point for any of those last three before risking further money.
Gove versus Hunt is the least worst outcome for the Conservative Party and the country.
However, the banter heuristic demands McVey versus that upskirt MP from Christchurch.
I'm not sure you're right about Gove v Hunt being better for the party. For the party the best is whoever is the most no dealey and can thus recover BXP support. Sure theyd probably lose a swift GE but theyd have the largest base to build from. Any other option they lose masses of support.
> So, if I want > > - no ECJ supremacy over UK law > - no FoM > - no large payments to the EU > > But > > - a sensible and friendly approach to our neighbours > > Who should I vote for? > ______________________
I think a deal can be fixed where formally there is no ECJ oversight or FoM, although these things continue in practice. The ultimately empty symbols come at a very high price and I would challenge people to think it was worth it.
It's the most likely eventual Brexit outcome, nevertheless.
One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2.
If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM.
The nuttiest of the final 2 will win.
Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves
If that were all we could just let them get on with it. It’s that they want to consume the rest of us which is worrying.
McVey is an idiot. What does “clean break” actually mean?
It's the friendly way of saying no deal no matter the cost, like how people use peoples vote rather than second referendum because it sounds better.
Does a “clean break” mean that we don’t pay the EU what we legally owe? Because that takes us straight to legal action and problems in the bond market (our deficit and debt say hello). That’s just one of the many questions which need answering.
And as for the cost - who pays it? And if it’s high how will Ms McVey persuade those paying it to vote for the party thereafter? Etc etc....
Irrelevant to the target audience. Lots of them will be saying no deal, she is differentiating by promising no deal +. The longer it goes the harder and more no dealey it will become .
Gove versus Hunt is the least worst outcome for the Conservative Party and the country.
However, the banter heuristic demands McVey versus that upskirt MP from Christchurch.
I'm not sure you're right about Gove v Hunt being better for the party. For the party the best is whoever is the most no dealey and can thus recover BXP support. Sure theyd probably lose a swift GE but theyd have the largest base to build from. Any other option they lose masses of support.
> @Cyclefree said: > One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2. > > If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM. > > The nuttiest of the final 2 will win. > > Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves > > > If that were all we could just let them get on with it. It’s that they want to consume the rest of us which is worrying. > > McVey is an idiot. What does “clean break” actually mean? > > It's the friendly way of saying no deal no matter the cost, like how people use peoples vote rather than second referendum because it sounds better. > > Does a “clean break” mean that we don’t pay the EU what we legally owe? Because that takes us straight to legal action and problems in the bond market (our deficit and debt say hello). That’s just one of the many questions which need answering. > > And as for the cost - who pays it? And if it’s high how will Ms McVey persuade those paying it to vote for the party thereafter? Etc etc....
Gove versus Hunt is the least worst outcome for the Conservative Party and the country.
However, the banter heuristic demands McVey versus that upskirt MP from Christchurch.
I'm not sure you're right about Gove v Hunt being better for the party. For the party the best is whoever is the most no dealey and can thus recover BXP support. Sure theyd probably lose a swift GE but theyd have the largest base to build from. Any other option they lose masses of support.
I think Gove could take on the Brexit Party.
Mr voted for the deal three times?
Yep.
As a former Brexit campaign leader he can’t be accused of being a closet Remainer.
I think he would go on the attack, and I think he stands a chance of being successful.
One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2.
If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM.
The nuttiest of the final 2 will win.
Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves
If that were all we could just let them get on with it. It’s that they want to consume the rest of us which is worrying.
McVey is an idiot. What does “clean break” actually mean?
It's the friendly way of saying no deal no matter the cost, like how people use peoples vote rather than second referendum because it sounds better.
Does a “clean break” mean that we don’t pay the EU what we legally owe? Because that takes us straight to legal action and problems in the bond market (our deficit and debt say hello). That’s just one of the many questions which need answering.
And as for the cost - who pays it? And if it’s high how will Ms McVey persuade those paying it to vote for the party thereafter? Etc etc....
Irrelevant to the target audience. Lots of them will be saying no deal, she is differentiating by promising no deal +. The longer it goes the harder and more no dealey it will become .
It may be irrelevant to the target audience. It will be one of the first things in the in-tray of the PM and Chancellor. And when legally due payments have to be made, what will the explanation be when the cries of betrayal are heard?
> An anecdote (apologies as I've said this before on here, but it seems relevant): > > Mrs J is Turkish: but she is a very westernised Turk with virtually no accent when she speaks English, and the quality of her spoken English is better than mine. Until recently she has suffered virtually no racism here in the UK because, as she puts it, "she fits in." > > A few years back we drove to Austria through Germany for a wedding. We spent a night at a motel in the middle of Germany, and on the way down to the petrol station to book in, we received racial abuse from some men standing by their cars - from memory, on the way there and the way back. Mrs J was wearing (as ever) western clothes. > > Our first night in Germany, when we hadn't even spoken to the men. It appears anyone with olive skin is worthy of abuse. > > So I don't believe that racism and Islamaphobia (and I will continue to use that term, not the crap 'anti-Islamic' term) is not a problem in Germany.
Unpleasant, sympathies. My mother, who was a sturdy no-nonsense type, unwisely refused to get the special stamp that British foreign residents could have in their passports to show they had right of residence ("of course I do, just let them try to dispute it"). She once had trouble at the German border when the officials noticed the missing stamp. "Strange," said one to the other, "She doesn't look black or Asiatic." Bilingual in German, she asked them crisply what their problem was, and they retreated in confusion. Not as bad as your case but shows that the issue can lurk just under the surface.
That said, I do think that most Germans are more reliably non-racist than most Brits, purely because of their history. If you've found in living memory that racism leads directly to the destruction of your country, you instinctively steer well clear. In Britain, most people aren't really racist either, but it's a bit more cerebral ("I suppose it would be stupid to be prejudiced against all foreigners") than gut revulsion.
> You might just as well ask: 'if I want low taxes, low borrowing and high public spending who should I vote for?' > > Your criteria are incompatible: a sensible and friendly approach to our neighbours is EU membership.
Why?
Can Canada be sensible and friendly with the USA without being a member of the USA? Can NZ be sensible and friendly with Australia without being a member of Australia?
Why can't we be friendly neighbours rather than reluctant members? Why can't we be Canada to the EU's USA? If the EU wants to be led by a Trump why can't we choose our own leaders?
> @Gardenwalker said: > I’m with Big G. > > Gove versus Hunt is the least worst outcome for the Conservative Party and the country. > > However, the banter heuristic demands McVey versus that upskirt MP from Christchurch. > > I'm not sure you're right about Gove v Hunt being better for the party. For the party the best is whoever is the most no dealey and can thus recover BXP support. Sure theyd probably lose a swift GE but theyd have the largest base to build from. Any other option they lose masses of support. > > I think Gove could take on the Brexit Party. > > Mr voted for the deal three times? > > Yep. > > As a former Brexit campaign leader he can’t be accused of being a closet Remainer. > > I think he would go on the attack, and I think he stands a chance of being successful.
> One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2.
>
> If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM.
>
> The nuttiest of the final 2 will win.
>
> Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves
>
>
> If that were all we could just let them get on with it. It’s that they want to consume the rest of us which is worrying.
>
> McVey is an idiot. What does “clean break” actually mean?
>
> It's the friendly way of saying no deal no matter the cost, like how people use peoples vote rather than second referendum because it sounds better.
>
> Does a “clean break” mean that we don’t pay the EU what we legally owe? Because that takes us straight to legal action and problems in the bond market (our deficit and debt say hello). That’s just one of the many questions which need answering.
>
> And as for the cost - who pays it? And if it’s high how will Ms McVey persuade those paying it to vote for the party thereafter? Etc etc....
Our political class do not do details.
A No Deal Brexit will be an absolute bonanza for lawyers. As will a Corbyn government expropriating assets without compensation.
> @another_richard said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2. > > > > If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM. > > > > The nuttiest of the final 2 will win. > > > > Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves > > > > > > If that were all we could just let them get on with it. It’s that they want to consume the rest of us which is worrying. > > > > McVey is an idiot. What does “clean break” actually mean? > > > > It's the friendly way of saying no deal no matter the cost, like how people use peoples vote rather than second referendum because it sounds better. > > > > Does a “clean break” mean that we don’t pay the EU what we legally owe? Because that takes us straight to legal action and problems in the bond market (our deficit and debt say hello). That’s just one of the many questions which need answering. > > > > And as for the cost - who pays it? And if it’s high how will Ms McVey persuade those paying it to vote for the party thereafter? Etc etc.... > > Our political class do not do details.
More to the point, they don't worry about tomorrow when they are doing the shopping today.
> An anecdote (apologies as I've said this before on here, but it seems relevant):
>
> Mrs J is Turkish: but she is a very westernised Turk with virtually no accent when she speaks English, and the quality of her spoken English is better than mine. Until recently she has suffered virtually no racism here in the UK because, as she puts it, "she fits in."
>
> A few years back we drove to Austria through Germany for a wedding. We spent a night at a motel in the middle of Germany, and on the way down to the petrol station to book in, we received racial abuse from some men standing by their cars - from memory, on the way there and the way back. Mrs J was wearing (as ever) western clothes.
>
> Our first night in Germany, when we hadn't even spoken to the men. It appears anyone with olive skin is worthy of abuse.
>
> So I don't believe that racism and Islamaphobia (and I will continue to use that term, not the crap 'anti-Islamic' term) is not a problem in Germany.
Unpleasant, sympathies. My mother, who was a sturdy no-nonsense type, unwisely refused to get the special stamp that British foreign residents could have in their passports to show they had right of residence ("of course I do, just let them try to dispute it"). She once had trouble at the German border when the officials noticed the missing stamp. "Strange," said one to the other, "She doesn't look black or Asiatic." Bilingual in German, she asked them crisply what their problem was, and they retreated in confusion. Not as bad as your case but shows that the issue can lurk just under the surface.
That said, I do think that most Germans are more reliably non-racist than most Brits, purely because of their history. If you've found in living memory that racism leads directly to the destruction of your country, you instinctively steer well clear. In Britain, most people aren't really racist either, but it's a bit more cerebral ("I suppose it would be stupid to be prejudiced against all foreigners") than gut revulsion.
"That said, I do think that most Germans are more reliably non-racist than most Brits, purely because of their history."
Isn't there a sizeable proportion of people in Germany who look back to those as the country's glory days? E.g. the neo-Nazis?
One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2.
If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM.
The nuttiest of the final 2 will win.
Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves
If that were all we could just let them get on with it. It’s that they want to consume the rest of us which is worrying.
McVey is an idiot. What does “clean break” actually mean?
It's the friendly way of saying no deal no matter the cost, like how people use peoples vote rather than second referendum because it sounds better.
Does a “clean break” mean that we don’t pay the EU what we legally owe? Because that takes us straight to legal action and problems in the bond market (our deficit and debt say hello). That’s just one of the many questions which need answering.
And as for the cost - who pays it? And if it’s high how will Ms McVey persuade those paying it to vote for the party thereafter? Etc etc....
Irrelevant to the target audience. Lots of them will be saying no deal, she is differentiating by promising no deal +. The longer it goes the harder and more no dealey it will become .
It may be irrelevant to the target audience. It will be one of the first things in the in-tray of the PM and Chancellor. And when legally due payments have to be made, what will the explanation be when the cries of betrayal are heard?
Depends if they can hold onto government or not. I suspect not. If they can they will say this is all a huge unfortunate surprise but we will have to do it but by golly we shall be super tough moving forward.
Gove versus Hunt is the least worst outcome for the Conservative Party and the country.
However, the banter heuristic demands McVey versus that upskirt MP from Christchurch.
I'm not sure you're right about Gove v Hunt being better for the party. For the party the best is whoever is the most no dealey and can thus recover BXP support. Sure theyd probably lose a swift GE but theyd have the largest base to build from. Any other option they lose masses of support.
I think Gove could take on the Brexit Party.
Mr voted for the deal three times?
Yep.
As a former Brexit campaign leader he can’t be accused of being a closet Remainer.
I think he would go on the attack, and I think he stands a chance of being successful.
I doubt there is an overwhelming majority of Brexit Party supporters who want No Deal, they just want the referendum result respected, ie we leave.
D Day heavily involved the US, so obviously Jezza wont want to commemorate it. He probably sees it as an imperialist invasion of the sovereign state of Vichy.
Personally I find the term Islamophobia unhelpful. Perhaps homophobia had some merit as a term, trying to suggest that hostility came from fear. But we don't police fear - that's a thought crime. We police actions - hatred, abuse, discrimination.
There was an article in the Guardian recently that stated it's clear what Islamophobia is - followed by various examples of generalised anti-muslim hostility. But what isn't islamophobic? That's a more difficult question. Unfortunately we don't have a term like anti-semitism to cover muslims. Would anyone like to start using the term jewphobia?
> @Barnesian said: > > @Barnesian said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @TOPPING said: > > > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support. > > > > > > > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour. > > > > > > > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party. > > > > > > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2 > > > > They don't need to. They simply VONC the members' choice. > > I wonder what the Betfair rules are on next PM.* Are they next PM as soon as the Tory members' choice is announced or do they need the confidence of the House? > > Mrs May will still be PM on the announcement and could intervene by not recommending the winner to the Queen (as I think is the requirement) until the appointment is confirmed by the House. > > * The Betfair rules are "This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom." So it does requires the Queen's permission based on the recommendation of the outgoing PM.
The Queen does not have to ask for such advice from the departing PM - nor would she be pbliged to accept it if given. She will have her own constitutional advisers. In January 1957 Eden did not recommend a successor.
No Deal is the last gasp of a failing project. We have run out of ideas so we will pull the edifice down around us. A Cultural Revolution isn't going to work but it doesn't mean it won't be tried.
> @Cyclefree said: > One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2. > > If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM. > > The nuttiest of the final 2 will win. > > Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves > > > If that were all we could just let them get on with it. It’s that they want to consume the rest of us which is worrying. > > McVey is an idiot. What does “clean break” actually mean? > > It's the friendly way of saying no deal no matter the cost, like how people use peoples vote rather than second referendum because it sounds better. > > Does a “clean break” mean that we don’t pay the EU what we legally owe? Because that takes us straight to legal action and problems in the bond market (our deficit and debt say hello). That’s just one of the many questions which need answering. > > And as for the cost - who pays it? And if it’s high how will Ms McVey persuade those paying it to vote for the party thereafter? Etc etc.... > > Irrelevant to the target audience. Lots of them will be saying no deal, she is differentiating by promising no deal +. The longer it goes the harder and more no dealey it will become . > > It may be irrelevant to the target audience. It will be one of the first things in the in-tray of the PM and Chancellor. And when legally due payments have to be made, what will the explanation be when the cries of betrayal are heard?
What legally due payments?
Not being silly but pensions etc are morally due but not legally AFAIK.
One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2.
If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM.
The nuttiest of the final 2 will win.
Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves
If that were all we could just let them get on with it. It’s that they want to consume the rest of us which is worrying.
McVey is an idiot. What does “clean break” actually mean?
It's the friendly way of saying no deal no matter the cost, like how people use peoples vote rather than second referendum because it sounds better.
Does a “clean break” mean that we don’t pay the EU what we legally owe? Because that takes us straight to legal action and problems in the bond market (our deficit and debt say hello). That’s just one of the many questions which need answering.
And as for the cost - who pays it? And if it’s high how will Ms McVey persuade those paying it to vote for the party thereafter? Etc etc....
Irrelevant to the target audience. Lots of them will be saying no deal, she is differentiating by promising no deal +. The longer it goes the harder and more no dealey it will become .
It may be irrelevant to the target audience. It will be one of the first things in the in-tray of the PM and Chancellor. And when legally due payments have to be made, what will the explanation be when the cries of betrayal are heard?
The argument is that the only possible chance of negotiating a better deal with the EU, is if they genuinely believe that the U.K. is prepared to leave without one.
IMO this is the first page of the negotiation manual, the problem being many British voices opposed to that approach and urging the EU to play hardball.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @JosiasJessop said: > > > An anecdote (apologies as I've said this before on here, but it seems relevant): > > > > Mrs J is Turkish: but she is a very westernised Turk with virtually no accent when she speaks English, and the quality of her spoken English is better than mine. Until recently she has suffered virtually no racism here in the UK because, as she puts it, "she fits in." > > > > A few years back we drove to Austria through Germany for a wedding. We spent a night at a motel in the middle of Germany, and on the way down to the petrol station to book in, we received racial abuse from some men standing by their cars - from memory, on the way there and the way back. Mrs J was wearing (as ever) western clothes. > > > > Our first night in Germany, when we hadn't even spoken to the men. It appears anyone with olive skin is worthy of abuse. > > > > So I don't believe that racism and Islamaphobia (and I will continue to use that term, not the crap 'anti-Islamic' term) is not a problem in Germany. > > Unpleasant, sympathies. My mother, who was a sturdy no-nonsense type, unwisely refused to get the special stamp that British foreign residents could have in their passports to show they had right of residence ("of course I do, just let them try to dispute it"). She once had trouble at the German border when the officials noticed the missing stamp. "Strange," said one to the other, "She doesn't look black or Asiatic." Bilingual in German, she asked them crisply what their problem was, and they retreated in confusion. Not as bad as your case but shows that the issue can lurk just under the surface. > > That said, I do think that most Germans are more reliably non-racist than most Brits, purely because of their history. If you've found in living memory that racism leads directly to the destruction of your country, you instinctively steer well clear. In Britain, most people aren't really racist either, but it's a bit more cerebral ("I suppose it would be stupid to be prejudiced against all foreigners") than gut revulsion.
One of my family, married to a Thai with obviously half-Thai children, is planning a trip through Europe this summer. Think some of it's through Germany, then France, then ending up here. I hope it's all OK.......
Gove versus Hunt is the least worst outcome for the Conservative Party and the country.
However, the banter heuristic demands McVey versus that upskirt MP from Christchurch.
I'm not sure you're right about Gove v Hunt being better for the party. For the party the best is whoever is the most no dealey and can thus recover BXP support. Sure theyd probably lose a swift GE but theyd have the largest base to build from. Any other option they lose masses of support.
I think Gove could take on the Brexit Party.
Mr voted for the deal three times?
Yep.
As a former Brexit campaign leader he can’t be accused of being a closet Remainer.
I think he would go on the attack, and I think he stands a chance of being successful.
I doubt there is an overwhelming majority of Brexit Party supporters who want No Deal, they just want the referendum result respected, ie we leave.
Maybe, but the Tories cannot agree on a leave and dobt appear to want to risk that they are not all no dealers. They are pretty cowardly since they dont even want to try leaving and seeing if that undercuts Farage, they leap straight to talk of electoral pacts, or just adopting the same policy .
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2. > > > > If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM. > > > > The nuttiest of the final 2 will win. > > > > Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves > > > > > > If that were all we could just let them get on with it. It’s that they want to consume the rest of us which is worrying. > > > > McVey is an idiot. What does “clean break” actually mean? > > > > It's the friendly way of saying no deal no matter the cost, like how people use peoples vote rather than second referendum because it sounds better. > > > > Does a “clean break” mean that we don’t pay the EU what we legally owe? Because that takes us straight to legal action and problems in the bond market (our deficit and debt say hello). That’s just one of the many questions which need answering. > > > > And as for the cost - who pays it? And if it’s high how will Ms McVey persuade those paying it to vote for the party thereafter? Etc etc.... > > > > Irrelevant to the target audience. Lots of them will be saying no deal, she is differentiating by promising no deal +. The longer it goes the harder and more no dealey it will become . > > > > It may be irrelevant to the target audience. It will be one of the first things in the in-tray of the PM and Chancellor. And when legally due payments have to be made, what will the explanation be when the cries of betrayal are heard? > > What legally due payments? > > Not being silly but pensions etc are morally due but not legally AFAIK.
We committed to an EU budget until the end of the current budgetary period. I would suggest that in any first world jurisdiction, unless you get explicit agreement from the other side, your membership fees are still legally due even if you give up membership half way through the term.
> @Cyclefree said: > > Does a “clean break” mean that we don’t pay the EU what we legally owe? Because that takes us straight to legal action and problems in the bond market (our deficit and debt say hello). That’s just one of the many questions which need answering. > -------
Raab just said he'd be happy to arbitrate it and thinks we'd get at least £25bn back.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum > > > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
> The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise. > > This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get.
--------------------
I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't.
It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium.
> @JosiasJessop said: > > @JosiasJessop said: > > > > > An anecdote (apologies as I've said this before on here, but it seems relevant): > > > > > > Mrs J is Turkish: but she is a very westernised Turk with virtually no accent when she speaks English, and the quality of her spoken English is better than mine. Until recently she has suffered virtually no racism here in the UK because, as she puts it, "she fits in." > > > > > > A few years back we drove to Austria through Germany for a wedding. We spent a night at a motel in the middle of Germany, and on the way down to the petrol station to book in, we received racial abuse from some men standing by their cars - from memory, on the way there and the way back. Mrs J was wearing (as ever) western clothes. > > > > > > Our first night in Germany, when we hadn't even spoken to the men. It appears anyone with olive skin is worthy of abuse. > > > > > > So I don't believe that racism and Islamaphobia (and I will continue to use that term, not the crap 'anti-Islamic' term) is not a problem in Germany. > > > > Unpleasant, sympathies. My mother, who was a sturdy no-nonsense type, unwisely refused to get the special stamp that British foreign residents could have in their passports to show they had right of residence ("of course I do, just let them try to dispute it"). She once had trouble at the German border when the officials noticed the missing stamp. "Strange," said one to the other, "She doesn't look black or Asiatic." Bilingual in German, she asked them crisply what their problem was, and they retreated in confusion. Not as bad as your case but shows that the issue can lurk just under the surface. > > > > That said, I do think that most Germans are more reliably non-racist than most Brits, purely because of their history. If you've found in living memory that racism leads directly to the destruction of your country, you instinctively steer well clear. In Britain, most people aren't really racist either, but it's a bit more cerebral ("I suppose it would be stupid to be prejudiced against all foreigners") than gut revulsion. > > "That said, I do think that most Germans are more reliably non-racist than most Brits, purely because of their history." > > Isn't there a sizeable proportion of people in Germany who look back to those as the country's glory days? E.g. the neo-Nazis?
From my experience they are not a sizeable proportion, more a very vociferous but very small minority. More than in the UK, particularly since reunification but still a very long way from being significant in political terms.
> > > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support.
> > > >
> > > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour.
> > > >
> > > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party.
> > >
> > > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2
> >
> > They don't need to. They simply VONC the members' choice.
>
> I wonder what the Betfair rules are on next PM.* Are they next PM as soon as the Tory members' choice is announced or do they need the confidence of the House?
>
> Mrs May will still be PM on the announcement and could intervene by not recommending the winner to the Queen (as I think is the requirement) until the appointment is confirmed by the House.
>
> * The Betfair rules are "This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom." So it does requires the Queen's permission based on the recommendation of the outgoing PM.
The Queen does not have to ask for such advice from the departing PM - nor would she be pbliged to accept it if given. She will have her own constitutional advisers. In January 1957 Eden did not recommend a successor.
************************************************************************** So it's not the Tory membership, nor MPs in Parliament who chose the next PM - it's the Queen. Fingers crossed for her longevity - otherwise it is Charles who determines our future.
> @JackW said: > BBC Marr - Decent calm interview from Rabb with the big elephant in the studio - His No Deal WTO has no majority in HoC. > > Do the math Dominic.
> @justin124 said: > > @NickPalmer said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum > > > > > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet > > > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else? > > Maybe Dominic Grieve, Justine Greening ,Philip Lee, Rory Stewart?
These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time
Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey
Add in
Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote.
Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary.
Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal.
Comments
> > @NickPalmer said:
>
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> >
>
> > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum
>
> > >
>
> > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet
>
> >
>
> > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
>
>
>
> *************************************************************************
>
>
>
> The Tory Remainer rebels didn't fold on no deal. On the contrary.
>
>
>
> Can you imagine Hammond, Grieve, Letwin, Rudd etc supporting a hard no dealer if there is a softer alternative in the runner up.
>
>
>
> Incidentally I don't think Boris is a no dealer though he has to pretend to be. Farage has seen that.
>
> If he wins he will have no choice but to follow through if he cannot deliver something new .
Why do you suppose Johnson will do something he's promised to do?
Other than in Scotland, most of the Conservative party membership and core vote are now Leavers, and virtually all of their potential converts are Leavers as well. If Tory MPs go into a GE later this year on a platform of implementing the Withdrawal Agreement (which is the natural consequence of putting in a continuity May leader,) or going back to the EU and asking for Norway+CU instead, then it's all over. The Brexit Party would eat them alive.
+++++++++++++++
So, if I want
- no ECJ supremacy over UK law
- no FoM
- no large payments to the EU
But
- a sensible and friendly approach to our neighbours
Who should I vote for?
JV- New Unity (EPP) 2 seats
Social Democratic Party "Harmony" 2 seats
NA (National Alliance, they are in ECR)- 1 seat
API (Europhile Liberals) 1 seat
LKS (Latvian Russian Union) 1 seat
Last seat in in play between: a second seat for NA, a seat for ZZS (Greesn and farmers) and a third seat for JV
It’s however easier to do it if you’ve already left the party . So some of those might just resign the whip and sit as independents or join the Lib Dems .
To VONC from there would be easier. I’m dubious though that even then they’d reach 20.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > Yes nearly all the Tory party will accept a deal, that does not mean they will fold and accept no deal, they are absolutely clear they will not.
>
> The electoral market for a wet centre-right, BINO option in any future GE will probably be roughly reflected in whatever is left of the Tory vote in this European election. I'd be shocked if that were much more than 10%.
>
> Other than in Scotland, most of the Conservative party membership and core vote are now Leavers, and virtually all of their potential converts are Leavers as well. If Tory MPs go into a GE later this year on a platform of implementing the Withdrawal Agreement (which is the natural consequence of putting in a continuity May leader,) or going back to the EU and asking for Norway+CU instead, then it's all over. The Brexit Party would eat them alive.
I am not suggesting what Tory party policy is going to be or should be, I am pointing out that there are at least a dozen, probably more like 20-30 Tory MPs who will block no deal. It will not be in the gift of a Tory leader to no deal, so any no deal candidate must have a plan B (GE which is also unlikely to work) and a plan C (?????) or they are promising things they cannot deliver.
By far the quickest and most realistic way to deliver no deal is via a 2nd referendum, will any of the candidates campaingn on that? We keep hearing about how a remain parliament is not reflective of the country yet the no-dealers keep insisting we go through parliament rather than the country! They are not very good at maths.
The UK remaining in a customs union isn't sufficient to avoid treating Northern Ireland differently, which is why the single customs territory backstop is still unacceptable to them.
I think the DUP's tactical support for No Deal is similar to the ERG's but they just have very different bottom lines.
++++++++++
For once, I don't think we disagree.
The DUP would like us out of the EU, but don't really want anything to change in Northern Ireland, and would like no barriers between Great Britain and Ulster.
> Mr. Sandpit, yeah, odds too short to tempt on no safety car.
>
> Be glad when we can move on from Monaco. Canada's next. A circuit that's fast and has overtaking. Gosh.
It's just started raining if that helps.
> > @ydoethur said:
> > This has got me thinking, is there anyone who has lost a GE and later become prime-minister? Certainly not since the Second World War. Kinnock tried to win this acheivement, and of course Corbyn is attemting it at the moment.
> >
> > Attlee. That said, the first election he lost was before the Second World War.
> >
> > And of course Heath - 1966 and 1970.
> >
> > Churchill also lost his seat in 1908 and 1922. But he had barely re-entered Parliament (and hadn't rejoined the Unionists) before he was made Chancellor.
> >
> > Macmillan lost his seat in 1929 and 1945 but recovered to lead the party and be PM.
> >
> > Foot also lost at least one seat (in 1959 I think).
> >
> > So I'm not sure I accept your premise.
>
> When I said "lost", I meant lost a GE as leader of the opposition. So Foot/Macmillan loosing their seats doesn't fall into that category. But thanks for the great information.
>
> The big surprise for me here is Heath losing in 1966 and staying on until 1970. So in hist time as leader of the conservatives he won once and lost 3 times.
Gaitskell lost heavily in 1959 and probably would have won in 1964 , had he survived.
Your criteria are incompatible: a sensible and friendly approach to our neighbours is EU membership.
> @JackW said:
> Additionally for McVey to state that a fully functioning would be in place by the end of October is risible.
>
> +++++++++++++++
>
> I wouldn't disagree with that. I think it's a three year project if properly managed.
>
> So, probably five years is realistic.
----------------------
However long you spend on it, a proper No Deal plan needs to include a different approach for Northern Ireland, so trying to prepare for No Deal creates the same political problems as negotiating a deal.
Labour 56%
PN 38%
It would likely be a 4-2 split in seats (currently 3-3)
> Sky News - Gove joins the beauty pageant.
Can't see someone with his face winning that!
> > @eristdoof said:
> > > @ydoethur said:
> > > This has got me thinking, is there anyone who has lost a GE and later become prime-minister? Certainly not since the Second World War. Kinnock tried to win this acheivement, and of course Corbyn is attemting it at the moment.
> > >
> > > Attlee. That said, the first election he lost was before the Second World War.
> > >
> > > And of course Heath - 1966 and 1970.
> > >
> > > Churchill also lost his seat in 1908 and 1922. But he had barely re-entered Parliament (and hadn't rejoined the Unionists) before he was made Chancellor.
> > >
> > > Macmillan lost his seat in 1929 and 1945 but recovered to lead the party and be PM.
> > >
> > > Foot also lost at least one seat (in 1959 I think).
> > >
> > > So I'm not sure I accept your premise.
> >
> > When I said "lost", I meant lost a GE as leader of the opposition. So Foot/Macmillan loosing their seats doesn't fall into that category. But thanks for the great information.
> >
> > The big surprise for me here is Heath losing in 1966 and staying on until 1970. So in hist time as leader of the conservatives he won once and lost 3 times.
>
> Gaitskell lost heavily in 1959 and probably would have won in 1964 , had he survived.
IIRC it seemed likely that Gaitskell would have done better than Wilson actually did.
> > @kle4 said:
> > https://twitter.com/EstherMcVey1/status/1132544349596733442
> >
> >
> >
> > So going directly for no deal not seeking a unicorn renegotiation. Thats something at least.
> >
> > I am amazed if anybody thinks any version of the WA will be approved . What candidate with a chance is going to suggest that in a realistic way? And the simplicity of 'just leave' is so much easier than 'we will leave but I shall try to x and y first'
>
> It does seem as if we are going to have to go through a No Deal process. The good thing is that Johnson or whoever will own it and its consequences totally, having chosen to follow that path in the knowledge that the majority of the country was opposed.
McVey is my Dark horse at 85. That's a 'brave' statement to make. Guessing she thinks that this line is a winner with grass roots. Whether she can make the last two to test this theory I don't know.
Of what I've heard Rory is a no-hoper. His view is that Maybots failed line was the correct one and he would continue with it???
That could make things more entertaining, providing they don't start under the safety car then trundle around until it's dry enough for slicks.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > @JackW said:
> > Additionally for McVey to state that a fully functioning would be in place by the end of October is risible.
> >
> > +++++++++++++++
> >
> > I wouldn't disagree with that. I think it's a three year project if properly managed.
> >
> > So, probably five years is realistic.
> ----------------------
>
> However long you spend on it, a proper No Deal plan needs to include a different approach for Northern Ireland, so trying to prepare for No Deal creates the same political problems as negotiating a deal.
I don't think there's ever been a calm rational way forward set out for No Deal.
> > @old_labour said:
> > Boris Johnson seeking a quickie divorce from his long suffering wife to get his mistress ensconced in Downing Street. He must think he has the leadership in the bag.
> >
> > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7071209/Boris-Johnson-hopes-finalise-split-estranged-wife-six-weeks.html
>
> Her Bozzie Bear.
>
> Should we open a bet on how long the relationship will last?
I am not sure the country is ready for a PM shacked up at No 10. That probably explains Ed Milliband's decision to get married whilst Labour leader.
> @Black_Rook said:
>
>
>
> Other than in Scotland, most of the Conservative party membership and core vote are now Leavers, and virtually all of their potential converts are Leavers as well. If Tory MPs go into a GE later this year on a platform of implementing the Withdrawal Agreement (which is the natural consequence of putting in a continuity May leader,) or going back to the EU and asking for Norway+CU instead, then it's all over. The Brexit Party would eat them alive.
>
>
>
> +++++++++++++++
>
>
>
> So, if I want
>
>
>
> - no ECJ supremacy over UK law
>
> - no FoM
>
> - no large payments to the EU
>
>
>
> But
>
>
>
> - a sensible and friendly approach to our neighbours
>
>
>
> Who should I vote for?
>
> You might just as well ask: 'if I want low taxes, low borrowing and high public spending who should I vote for?'
>
> Your criteria are incompatible: a sensible and friendly approach to our neighbours is EU membership.
We tried that for 40 years and it failed.
One of the amusing things since 2016 has been Remainers telling us that every EU country will have a list of demands before they agree to anything.
Whereas before 2016 we were always told that the UK shouldn't demand anything but should agree to everything in the hope of some future support.
McVey is an idiot. What does “clean break” actually mean?
> One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2.
>
> If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM.
>
> The nuttiest of the final 2 will win.
>
> Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves
I've got a feeling it's going to be between Gove and Leadsom. So on your metric it'll be a dead heat.
Mrs J is Turkish: but she is a very westernised Turk with virtually no accent when she speaks English, and the quality of her spoken English is better than mine. Until recently she has suffered virtually no racism here in the UK because, as she puts it, "she fits in."
A few years back we drove to Austria through Germany for a wedding. We spent a night at a motel in the middle of Germany, and on the way down to the petrol station to book in, we received racial abuse from some men standing by their cars - from memory, on the way there and the way back. Mrs J was wearing (as ever) western clothes.
Our first night in Germany, when we hadn't even spoken to the men. It appears anyone with olive skin is worthy of abuse.
So I don't believe that racism and Islamaphobia (and I will continue to use that term, not the crap 'anti-Islamic' term) is not a problem in Germany.
> @Black_Rook said:
>
> Other than in Scotland, most of the Conservative party membership and core vote are now Leavers, and virtually all of their potential converts are Leavers as well. If Tory MPs go into a GE later this year on a platform of implementing the Withdrawal Agreement (which is the natural consequence of putting in a continuity May leader,) or going back to the EU and asking for Norway+CU instead, then it's all over. The Brexit Party would eat them alive.
>
> +++++++++++++++
>
> So, if I want
>
> - no ECJ supremacy over UK law
> - no FoM
> - no large payments to the EU
>
> But
>
> - a sensible and friendly approach to our neighbours
>
> Who should I vote for?
Nobody.
The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise.
This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get.
Gove versus Hunt is the least worst outcome for the Conservative Party and the country.
However, the banter heuristic demands McVey versus that upskirt MP from Christchurch.
And as for the cost - who pays it? And if it’s high how will Ms McVey persuade those paying it to vote for the party thereafter? Etc etc....
> > @Foxy said:
> > One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2.
> >
> > If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM.
> >
> > The nuttiest of the final 2 will win.
> >
> > Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves
>
> I've got a feeling it's going to be between Gove and Leadsom. So on your metric it'll be a dead heat.
Guess No dealers will coalesce around either Baker/McVey, then Raab and the better placed of the other two. Then I see a three way of Gove, Boris or No Dealer for last two places - and I would want good value at that point for any of those last three before risking further money.
> https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1132565998152945666
He might have a busy day lined up on his allotment...
https://twitter.com/kelseyellison/status/1132010240944353281?s=21
> So, if I want
>
> - no ECJ supremacy over UK law
> - no FoM
> - no large payments to the EU
>
> But
>
> - a sensible and friendly approach to our neighbours
>
> Who should I vote for?
>
______________________
I think a deal can be fixed where formally there is no ECJ oversight or FoM, although these things continue in practice. The ultimately empty symbols come at a very high price and I would challenge people to think it was worth it.
It's the most likely eventual Brexit outcome, nevertheless.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7071183/Corbyn-face-formal-probe-anti-Jewish-allegations.html.
If it happens it will need to be by contrived accident.
> One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2.
>
> If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM.
>
> The nuttiest of the final 2 will win.
>
> Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves
>
>
> If that were all we could just let them get on with it. It’s that they want to consume the rest of us which is worrying.
>
> McVey is an idiot. What does “clean break” actually mean?
>
> It's the friendly way of saying no deal no matter the cost, like how people use peoples vote rather than second referendum because it sounds better.
>
> Does a “clean break” mean that we don’t pay the EU what we legally owe? Because that takes us straight to legal action and problems in the bond market (our deficit and debt say hello). That’s just one of the many questions which need answering.
>
> And as for the cost - who pays it? And if it’s high how will Ms McVey persuade those paying it to vote for the party thereafter? Etc etc....
Our political class do not do details.
As a former Brexit campaign leader he can’t be accused of being a closet Remainer.
I think he would go on the attack, and I think he stands a chance of being successful.
> An anecdote (apologies as I've said this before on here, but it seems relevant):
>
> Mrs J is Turkish: but she is a very westernised Turk with virtually no accent when she speaks English, and the quality of her spoken English is better than mine. Until recently she has suffered virtually no racism here in the UK because, as she puts it, "she fits in."
>
> A few years back we drove to Austria through Germany for a wedding. We spent a night at a motel in the middle of Germany, and on the way down to the petrol station to book in, we received racial abuse from some men standing by their cars - from memory, on the way there and the way back. Mrs J was wearing (as ever) western clothes.
>
> Our first night in Germany, when we hadn't even spoken to the men. It appears anyone with olive skin is worthy of abuse.
>
> So I don't believe that racism and Islamaphobia (and I will continue to use that term, not the crap 'anti-Islamic' term) is not a problem in Germany.
Unpleasant, sympathies. My mother, who was a sturdy no-nonsense type, unwisely refused to get the special stamp that British foreign residents could have in their passports to show they had right of residence ("of course I do, just let them try to dispute it"). She once had trouble at the German border when the officials noticed the missing stamp. "Strange," said one to the other, "She doesn't look black or Asiatic." Bilingual in German, she asked them crisply what their problem was, and they retreated in confusion. Not as bad as your case but shows that the issue can lurk just under the surface.
That said, I do think that most Germans are more reliably non-racist than most Brits, purely because of their history. If you've found in living memory that racism leads directly to the destruction of your country, you instinctively steer well clear. In Britain, most people aren't really racist either, but it's a bit more cerebral ("I suppose it would be stupid to be prejudiced against all foreigners") than gut revulsion.
> You might just as well ask: 'if I want low taxes, low borrowing and high public spending who should I vote for?'
>
> Your criteria are incompatible: a sensible and friendly approach to our neighbours is EU membership.
Why?
Can Canada be sensible and friendly with the USA without being a member of the USA? Can NZ be sensible and friendly with Australia without being a member of Australia?
Why can't we be friendly neighbours rather than reluctant members? Why can't we be Canada to the EU's USA? If the EU wants to be led by a Trump why can't we choose our own leaders?
>
> Why can't we be friendly neighbours rather than reluctant members? Why can't we be Canada to the EU's USA?
--------------
Because the EU isn't like the USA. It's a membership organisation with state-like attributes, not a sovereign state itself.
Also because Canada wasn't part of the USA for decades, and doesn't have any equivalent to Northern Ireland or the Good Friday Agreement.
> I’m with Big G.
>
> Gove versus Hunt is the least worst outcome for the Conservative Party and the country.
>
> However, the banter heuristic demands McVey versus that upskirt MP from Christchurch.
>
> I'm not sure you're right about Gove v Hunt being better for the party. For the party the best is whoever is the most no dealey and can thus recover BXP support. Sure theyd probably lose a swift GE but theyd have the largest base to build from. Any other option they lose masses of support.
>
> I think Gove could take on the Brexit Party.
>
> Mr voted for the deal three times?
>
> Yep.
>
> As a former Brexit campaign leader he can’t be accused of being a closet Remainer.
>
> I think he would go on the attack, and I think he stands a chance of being successful.
I hope he wins through.
So not all bad then.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2.
> >
> > If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM.
> >
> > The nuttiest of the final 2 will win.
> >
> > Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves
> >
> >
> > If that were all we could just let them get on with it. It’s that they want to consume the rest of us which is worrying.
> >
> > McVey is an idiot. What does “clean break” actually mean?
> >
> > It's the friendly way of saying no deal no matter the cost, like how people use peoples vote rather than second referendum because it sounds better.
> >
> > Does a “clean break” mean that we don’t pay the EU what we legally owe? Because that takes us straight to legal action and problems in the bond market (our deficit and debt say hello). That’s just one of the many questions which need answering.
> >
> > And as for the cost - who pays it? And if it’s high how will Ms McVey persuade those paying it to vote for the party thereafter? Etc etc....
>
> Our political class do not do details.
More to the point, they don't worry about tomorrow when they are doing the shopping today.
Isn't there a sizeable proportion of people in Germany who look back to those as the country's glory days? E.g. the neo-Nazis?
Personally I find the term Islamophobia unhelpful. Perhaps homophobia had some merit as a term, trying to suggest that hostility came from fear. But we don't police fear - that's a thought crime. We police actions - hatred, abuse, discrimination.
There was an article in the Guardian recently that stated it's clear what Islamophobia is - followed by various examples of generalised anti-muslim hostility. But what isn't islamophobic? That's a more difficult question. Unfortunately we don't have a term like anti-semitism to cover muslims. Would anyone like to start using the term jewphobia?
> > @Barnesian said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @TOPPING said:
> > > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support.
> > > >
> > > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour.
> > > >
> > > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party.
> > >
> > > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2
> >
> > They don't need to. They simply VONC the members' choice.
>
> I wonder what the Betfair rules are on next PM.* Are they next PM as soon as the Tory members' choice is announced or do they need the confidence of the House?
>
> Mrs May will still be PM on the announcement and could intervene by not recommending the winner to the Queen (as I think is the requirement) until the appointment is confirmed by the House.
>
> * The Betfair rules are "This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom." So it does requires the Queen's permission based on the recommendation of the outgoing PM.
The Queen does not have to ask for such advice from the departing PM - nor would she be pbliged to accept it if given. She will have her own constitutional advisers. In January 1957 Eden did not recommend a successor.
> One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2.
>
> If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM.
>
> The nuttiest of the final 2 will win.
>
> Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves
>
>
> If that were all we could just let them get on with it. It’s that they want to consume the rest of us which is worrying.
>
> McVey is an idiot. What does “clean break” actually mean?
>
> It's the friendly way of saying no deal no matter the cost, like how people use peoples vote rather than second referendum because it sounds better.
>
> Does a “clean break” mean that we don’t pay the EU what we legally owe? Because that takes us straight to legal action and problems in the bond market (our deficit and debt say hello). That’s just one of the many questions which need answering.
>
> And as for the cost - who pays it? And if it’s high how will Ms McVey persuade those paying it to vote for the party thereafter? Etc etc....
>
> Irrelevant to the target audience. Lots of them will be saying no deal, she is differentiating by promising no deal +. The longer it goes the harder and more no dealey it will become .
>
> It may be irrelevant to the target audience. It will be one of the first things in the in-tray of the PM and Chancellor. And when legally due payments have to be made, what will the explanation be when the cries of betrayal are heard?
What legally due payments?
Not being silly but pensions etc are morally due but not legally AFAIK.
IMO this is the first page of the negotiation manual, the problem being many British voices opposed to that approach and urging the EU to play hardball.
> > @JosiasJessop said:
>
> > An anecdote (apologies as I've said this before on here, but it seems relevant):
> >
> > Mrs J is Turkish: but she is a very westernised Turk with virtually no accent when she speaks English, and the quality of her spoken English is better than mine. Until recently she has suffered virtually no racism here in the UK because, as she puts it, "she fits in."
> >
> > A few years back we drove to Austria through Germany for a wedding. We spent a night at a motel in the middle of Germany, and on the way down to the petrol station to book in, we received racial abuse from some men standing by their cars - from memory, on the way there and the way back. Mrs J was wearing (as ever) western clothes.
> >
> > Our first night in Germany, when we hadn't even spoken to the men. It appears anyone with olive skin is worthy of abuse.
> >
> > So I don't believe that racism and Islamaphobia (and I will continue to use that term, not the crap 'anti-Islamic' term) is not a problem in Germany.
>
> Unpleasant, sympathies. My mother, who was a sturdy no-nonsense type, unwisely refused to get the special stamp that British foreign residents could have in their passports to show they had right of residence ("of course I do, just let them try to dispute it"). She once had trouble at the German border when the officials noticed the missing stamp. "Strange," said one to the other, "She doesn't look black or Asiatic." Bilingual in German, she asked them crisply what their problem was, and they retreated in confusion. Not as bad as your case but shows that the issue can lurk just under the surface.
>
> That said, I do think that most Germans are more reliably non-racist than most Brits, purely because of their history. If you've found in living memory that racism leads directly to the destruction of your country, you instinctively steer well clear. In Britain, most people aren't really racist either, but it's a bit more cerebral ("I suppose it would be stupid to be prejudiced against all foreigners") than gut revulsion.
One of my family, married to a Thai with obviously half-Thai children, is planning a trip through Europe this summer. Think some of it's through Germany, then France, then ending up here. I hope it's all OK.......
Then we got a poor deal, and Parliament refuses to back any option.
> https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1132565998152945666
>
>
>
> D Day heavily involved the US, so obviously Jezza wont want to commemorate it. He probably sees it as an imperialist invasion of the sovereign state of Vichy.
The Vichy government wasn't renowned for it's positive attitude to Jews, was it.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2.
> >
> > If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM.
> >
> > The nuttiest of the final 2 will win.
> >
> > Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves
> >
> >
> > If that were all we could just let them get on with it. It’s that they want to consume the rest of us which is worrying.
> >
> > McVey is an idiot. What does “clean break” actually mean?
> >
> > It's the friendly way of saying no deal no matter the cost, like how people use peoples vote rather than second referendum because it sounds better.
> >
> > Does a “clean break” mean that we don’t pay the EU what we legally owe? Because that takes us straight to legal action and problems in the bond market (our deficit and debt say hello). That’s just one of the many questions which need answering.
> >
> > And as for the cost - who pays it? And if it’s high how will Ms McVey persuade those paying it to vote for the party thereafter? Etc etc....
> >
> > Irrelevant to the target audience. Lots of them will be saying no deal, she is differentiating by promising no deal +. The longer it goes the harder and more no dealey it will become .
> >
> > It may be irrelevant to the target audience. It will be one of the first things in the in-tray of the PM and Chancellor. And when legally due payments have to be made, what will the explanation be when the cries of betrayal are heard?
>
> What legally due payments?
>
> Not being silly but pensions etc are morally due but not legally AFAIK.
We committed to an EU budget until the end of the current budgetary period. I would suggest that in any first world jurisdiction, unless you get explicit agreement from the other side, your membership fees are still legally due even if you give up membership half way through the term.
>
> Does a “clean break” mean that we don’t pay the EU what we legally owe? Because that takes us straight to legal action and problems in the bond market (our deficit and debt say hello). That’s just one of the many questions which need answering.
>
-------
Raab just said he'd be happy to arbitrate it and thinks we'd get at least £25bn back.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum
> >
> > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet
>
> I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
Maybe Dominic Grieve, Justine Greening ,Philip Lee, Rory Stewart?
> The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise.
>
> This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get.
--------------------
I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't.
It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium.
> > @JosiasJessop said:
>
>
>
> > An anecdote (apologies as I've said this before on here, but it seems relevant):
>
> >
>
> > Mrs J is Turkish: but she is a very westernised Turk with virtually no accent when she speaks English, and the quality of her spoken English is better than mine. Until recently she has suffered virtually no racism here in the UK because, as she puts it, "she fits in."
>
> >
>
> > A few years back we drove to Austria through Germany for a wedding. We spent a night at a motel in the middle of Germany, and on the way down to the petrol station to book in, we received racial abuse from some men standing by their cars - from memory, on the way there and the way back. Mrs J was wearing (as ever) western clothes.
>
> >
>
> > Our first night in Germany, when we hadn't even spoken to the men. It appears anyone with olive skin is worthy of abuse.
>
> >
>
> > So I don't believe that racism and Islamaphobia (and I will continue to use that term, not the crap 'anti-Islamic' term) is not a problem in Germany.
>
>
>
> Unpleasant, sympathies. My mother, who was a sturdy no-nonsense type, unwisely refused to get the special stamp that British foreign residents could have in their passports to show they had right of residence ("of course I do, just let them try to dispute it"). She once had trouble at the German border when the officials noticed the missing stamp. "Strange," said one to the other, "She doesn't look black or Asiatic." Bilingual in German, she asked them crisply what their problem was, and they retreated in confusion. Not as bad as your case but shows that the issue can lurk just under the surface.
>
>
>
> That said, I do think that most Germans are more reliably non-racist than most Brits, purely because of their history. If you've found in living memory that racism leads directly to the destruction of your country, you instinctively steer well clear. In Britain, most people aren't really racist either, but it's a bit more cerebral ("I suppose it would be stupid to be prejudiced against all foreigners") than gut revulsion.
>
> "That said, I do think that most Germans are more reliably non-racist than most Brits, purely because of their history."
>
> Isn't there a sizeable proportion of people in Germany who look back to those as the country's glory days? E.g. the neo-Nazis?
From my experience they are not a sizeable proportion, more a very vociferous but very small minority. More than in the UK, particularly since reunification but still a very long way from being significant in political terms.
> https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1132580310045134849
Inevitable and a promising leader for the Lib Dems
Tomorrow’s politics studies course in how not to launch a new party.
So it's not the Tory membership, nor MPs in Parliament who chose the next PM - it's the Queen. Fingers crossed for her longevity - otherwise it is Charles who determines our future.
Do the math Dominic.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1132581519413915648
How long until Nigel Fucking Farage is asked the inevitable question, and says no pact with Raab...
> BBC Marr - Decent calm interview from Rabb with the big elephant in the studio - His No Deal WTO has no majority in HoC.
>
> Do the math Dominic.
Our political class do not do details.
However, he was a Minister for five minutes before resigning in a fit of pique. He’s not ready for the big job.
> > @NickPalmer said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> >
> > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum
> > >
> > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet
> >
> > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
>
> Maybe Dominic Grieve, Justine Greening ,Philip Lee, Rory Stewart?
These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time
Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey
Add in
Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote.
Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary.
Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal.