> @TOPPING said: > > @TOPPING said: > > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support. > > > > > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour. > > > > > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party. > > > > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2 > > The MPs won't put with or withouters to the membership.
Enough will given IDS, Davis and Leadsom all made the final 2 in the last 3 leadership races.
If MPs try to stitch up 2 Remainers Tory members will start deselecting them as Labour members have started deselecting Blairites
> @Barnesian said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @TOPPING said: > > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support. > > > > > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour. > > > > > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party. > > > > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2 > > They don't need to. They simply VONC the members' choice.
Fine, a general election under a Leaver in the autumn offers far better Tory prospects than yet another Remainer as Leader and annihilation by the Brexit Party in a few years time
Just words to please the brexiteers. Each candidate needs to elaborate how they arrive at no deal without their fellow mps vonc with labour to dispose of them
> > If I were to give advice to the Tory members, I'd suggest they pick the prettiest female. But that's my advice to all parties. No one seems to listen.
To become the next PM he/she will be willing to have a clean unconditional Brexit. But the present parliament will not agree to that, so there will have to be a general election. In the run up to that there will need to be an accommodation with TBP to avoid a Corbyn government. This will be a high wire act. Only one candidate has the experience.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @TOPPING said: > > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support. > > > > > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour. > > > > > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party. > > > > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2 > > I have noo doubt that a leaver will be in the ballot but I have every doubt it wil be a hard no deal brexiteer. I am looking forward to the grilling of all the candidates ahead but I will not vote for Boris or Rabb
One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2.
> @Barnesian said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @TOPPING said: > > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support. > > > > > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour. > > > > > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party. > > > > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2 > > They don't need to. They simply VONC the members' choice.
I wonder what the Betfair rules are on next PM.* Are they next PM as soon as the Tory members' choice is announced or do they need the confidence of the House?
Mrs May will still be PM on the announcement and could intervene by not recommending the winner to the Queen (as I think is the requirement) until the appointment is confirmed by the House.
* The Betfair rules are "This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom." So it does requires the Queen's permission based on the recommendation of the outgoing PM.
Mr. Meeks, I was just going to mention that (specifically the Brythonic [Welsh] Celtic Kingdom of the Rock, and William Wallace having the nickname William the Briton).
> @HYUFD said: > > @Barnesian said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @TOPPING said: > > > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support. > > > > > > > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour. > > > > > > > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party. > > > > > > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2 > > > > They don't need to. They simply VONC the members' choice. > > Fine, a general election under a Leaver in the autumn offers far better Tory prospects than yet another Remainer as Leader and annihilation by the Brexit Party in a few years time
No it does not. It would fracture the party and allow a labour party intent on stopping brexit into power. You constantly parrot how Corbyn would win a GE with support from the SNP and in those circumstances brexit is finished for a generation
> @Black_Rook said: > > @TOPPING said: > > The MPs won't put with or withouters to the membership. > > Then they might as well have stuck with Theresa May.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @TOPPING said: > > > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support. > > > > > > > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour. > > > > > > > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party. > > > > > > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2 > > > > I have noo doubt that a leaver will be in the ballot but I have every doubt it wil be a hard no deal brexiteer. I am looking forward to the grilling of all the candidates ahead but I will not vote for Boris or Rabb > > One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2. > >
> > I have never seen such a concentrated nexus of stupidity and malevolence in one place. I might move to the Kerguelen Islands.
> >
> > In the four minutes I saw there was only a bunch of average people telling a smug sanctimonious prat why they are registering their disapproval at the fact that the country voted for something which the politicians have singularly failed to deliver.
> >
> > There was no slam dunk look at the idiots moment there. Jones aside of course.
> >
> > Owen Jones was very fair in that clip, and so too were the respondents for the most part.
>
> Owen Jones came out of the clip well and I never thought I would say that. There might just be hope in politics but I am not getting carried away
If a third of the country is voting for a party with literally a single policy then no, there is no hope.
A third of thirtysomething percent of the country. Much of the rest are in the Can't Be Arsed party grouping.
The Brexit Party Policy, is No Deal No Plan Brexit. It is just atavistic glee, not a policy.
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @CD13 said: > > I can see Boris being PM. I could see Trump being POTUS, but I'd suggest that JFK was one of the best Presidents. > > > > The reason being he collected the experts around him and listened to them. Then he made a value judgement. He also shagged anything with a pulse, but I forgive him that because of the Cuban missile crisis. > > > > Trump fails the test in many ways. Would Boris? I know little about his spell of being Mayor of some small town in Surrey. Brown micromanaged things he knew little about, so he fails the test too. Corbyn? Shudder. Obama? I'm not sure what he did, so I can't judge. Ken? Too political. > > > > Who of the contenders for the Tory party leadership and for PM is JFK material? Probably none, but I don't see anyone in the HoC who would fit either. > > Of the contenders, Boris is the nearest to JFK. > > That shouldn't be taken as an unalloyed compliment. > > But from what I've heard from those inside his Mayorlaty, he genuinely managed to enthuse the team around him. Although bouncing a basketball throughout a lengthy meeting of Cabinet might become tiresome....
On the upside, Boris did enthuse people, and he was willing to appoint well regarded experts and let them get on with the detail (which he doesn't do).
On the downside, he was interested primarily in self promotion, uninterested in the boring detail of the day job and bread and butter issues like crime or housing, and motivated solely by eye catching big schemes with which he could be associated, with utter disregard for their practicality or cost. The bikes (actually an idea he inherited), cable car to nowhere, abortive garden bridge, the offshore airport, etc. In meetings he got bored very easily and amused himself and frustrated others by trying to turn everything into a joke. He disliked being challenged or held to account.
I have a lot more respect for people who come out and say this, than for people who pretend unicorns exist.
However. I think it is equally important that Ms McVey is clear about the consequences of crashing out the EU without a deal.
My fear is this:
Most No Dealers are actually Unicorn Believers, who think that a little bit of backbone is all that is needed to make the EU remove the hated backstop. (You know, the backstop where the UK sells goods tariff free into the EU, benefits from its trade deals, and doesn't have to pay fees or accept Freedom of Movement.)
So what do they do when they cannot discover the fabled Unicorn?
> @SandyRentool said: > If I was a Tory MP I would be backing Gove. I believe he is the most able of the candidates, would take a pragmatic approach to sorting out Brexit and electing him would be best for the country. > > Being purely partisan, let them elect Esther. She will repel voters and give Labour a boost at the next GE. > > On a gut feeling, please let it be anyone but Boris.
As a tory member, I would agree with all those sentiments.. .. But not just Esther would be in the middle paragraph, plenty of others sadly.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Barnesian said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @TOPPING said: > > > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support. > > > > > > > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour. > > > > > > > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party. > > > > > > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2 > > > > They don't need to. They simply VONC the members' choice. > > Fine, a general election under a Leaver in the autumn offers far better Tory prospects than yet another Remainer as Leader and annihilation by the Brexit Party in a few years time
So that's an October GE. I've already got money on that.
The House will ensure the UK asks for an extension and the EU will say yes.
That's all very well but you can't be a leader with charisma without having said colourful things, ridiculous or wrong as time goes by. It goes with the patch. It is certainly not impossible that not being a boring person who sends you to sleep with waffle will counter all of that. Farage has some of the same problems. They may well cancel each other out. Interesting and bombastic evasion of questions is better viewing that, say, TM or Jeremy Hunt.
> @Barnesian said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Barnesian said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @TOPPING said: > > > > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support. > > > > > > > > > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour. > > > > > > > > > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party. > > > > > > > > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2 > > > > > > They don't need to. They simply VONC the members' choice. > > > > Fine, a general election under a Leaver in the autumn offers far better Tory prospects than yet another Remainer as Leader and annihilation by the Brexit Party in a few years time > > So that's an October GE. I've already got money on that. > > The House will ensure the UK asks for an extension and the EU will say yes.
> @felix said: > > @CD13 said: > > Since the referendum, I've heard a few people complain about democracy. usually along the lines of …. "Some people are too stupid to vote." The reason? They don't think the same way as the speaker on politics. > > > > They tend to be posh. In Guardian-speak, they have been seduced by 'populism'. Wiki defines it as 'a political approach that strives to appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups.' > > > > That is a bad thing? Only if you are a member of that established elite group, or think you are. > > > > There are some amusing results of the referendum, and this is one of them.. > > > > > > > > > > Agreed and it ha been added to on here and elsewhere by a very unpleasant and quite vicious ageism. I prefer the old politics where win or lose you respect the result and move on seeking to persuade rather than belittle and demonise your opponent.
The reason people are complaining about democracy from both leave "betraying democracy" and remain "too stupid to vote" is mostly the referendum. By putting two different types of democracy, elective parliamentary democracy vs the referendum in direct conflict with each other, we have polarised the debate and made clear some of the problems with each type of democracy.
With the referendum it is too blunt an instrument to manage the detail, with the elective parliament you can get gridlock and manipulation by factional interests.
The other major changes are social media and 24 hour news, both of these have a profound and negative effect on our political system.
The old politics is not coming back, we should instead understand the many issues with our current democracy so we can tweak it to best manage the next 50 years of governance.
> @geoffw said: > To become the next PM he/she will be willing to have a clean unconditional Brexit. But the present parliament will not agree to that, so there will have to be a general election. In the run up to that there will need to be an accommodation with TBP to avoid a Corbyn government. > This will be a high wire act. > Only one candidate has the experience. >
> @AlastairMeeks said: > Norman Davies wrote an excellent book called Vanished Kingdoms which, among other things, looks at how mutable ideas of nationhood are. He touches on that in relation to Scotland.
Am I the only one who thinks a lot could change as the candidates have to set out their stalls and that the public could very quickly change their minds on who is the best/worst candidate to do this. And we know what the Tories want is a WINNER. Boris' only successful campaigning record was in the largely personality contest of the London mayoralty. If his rivals go for him he could fold quite easily.
Fraser Nelson reckons it's Boris' to lose. I don't agree and that attitude could kill him. He needs to actively win it.
I have never seen such a concentrated nexus of stupidity and malevolence in one place. I might move to the Kerguelen Islands.
In the four minutes I saw there was only a bunch of average people telling a smug sanctimonious prat why they are registering their disapproval at the fact that the country voted for something which the politicians have singularly failed to deliver.
There was no slam dunk look at the idiots moment there. Jones aside of course.
Well there's the woman who says she wants to "get rid of" people like OS. There's the bloke who wants to close down the Guardian. There's another woman who thinks the EU is as totalitarian as the USSR. There's the soi disant hard man who keeps telling OS "to stand still while I'm talking to you". There is also a curious incel in a MAGA hat who I think posts on here.
What stupid thickos they are, well spotted, you’re a clever guy 👏🏻
> To become the next PM he/she will be willing to have a clean unconditional Brexit. But the present parliament will not agree to that, so there will have to be a general election. In the run up to that there will need to be an accommodation with TBP to avoid a Corbyn government.
> This will be a high wire act.
> Only one candidate has the experience.
>
Theresa?
No. Think of the picture of a candidate on a wire.
> @isam said: > This is all very reassuring. > > > > I have never seen such a concentrated nexus of stupidity and malevolence in one place. I might move to the Kerguelen Islands. > > In the four minutes I saw there was only a bunch of average people telling a smug sanctimonious prat why they are registering their disapproval at the fact that the country voted for something which the politicians have singularly failed to deliver. > > There was no slam dunk look at the idiots moment there. Jones aside of course. > > Well there's the woman who says she wants to "get rid of" people like OS. There's the bloke who wants to close down the Guardian. There's another woman who thinks the EU is as totalitarian as the USSR. There's the soi disant hard man who keeps telling OS "to stand still while I'm talking to you". There is also a curious incel in a MAGA hat who I think posts on here. > > What stupid thickos they are, well spotted, you’re a clever guy 👏🏻 > > Who’s OS by the way?
> @rcs1000 said: > @HYUFD said: > https://twitter.com/EstherMcVey1/status/1132544349596733442?s=20 > > ++++++++++++++ > > I have a lot more respect for people who come out and say this, than for people who pretend unicorns exist. > > However. I think it is equally important that Ms McVey is clear about the consequences of crashing out the EU without a deal. > > My fear is this: > > Most No Dealers are actually Unicorn Believers, who think that a little bit of backbone is all that is needed to make the EU remove the hated backstop. (You know, the backstop where the UK sells goods tariff free into the EU, benefits from its trade deals, and doesn't have to pay fees or accept Freedom of Movement.) > > So what do they do when they cannot discover the fabled Unicorn?
Ask for the backstop to be renamed the wicket keeper ?
Point taken, although the hustings for the Tory leadership campaign might want their beer held.
It's going to have all of the political sophistication and philosophical complexity of the World's Strongest Man. Except the Atlas Stones will be replaced by a series of increasingly belligerent statements on brexit.
A good analogy. With the difference being it wont be impressive to watch, only morbidly fascinating
> I have never seen such a concentrated nexus of stupidity and malevolence in one place. I might move to the Kerguelen Islands.
I think it’s important to differentiate between BXP voters and those who attend Farage rallies. Quite a few of the people in that video are clearly on the spectrum. Some give the impression of having significant mental health issues. It’s interesting how many refer to social media.
Convenient that the ones who you think look like they have mental health issues or are on the spectrum are those who made the final cut into the film. Now we can extrapolate on the basis that they are typical.
@JackW said: Irish hard border replaced by technology and all by October BREXIT date.
++++++++++++++
There's nothing fundamentally impossible about a high tech border in Northern Ireland. The US and Canada border has special truck lanes (called FAST - for "Free And Secure Trade) where vehicles with preregistered cargo can just drive through without stopping.
Indeed, the EU's own proposal for the Northern Irish border envisages such a system being in place by Sept/Oct 2020.
One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2.
If Baker makes it to the last two he is PM.
The nuttiest of the final 2 will win.
Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves
The final two are going to be a brexit lunacy arms race and Baker is much better placed in that due to never having voted for the wretched deal. Baker should dig out his old RAF No.1s to make it a sure thing.
I have never seen such a concentrated nexus of stupidity and malevolence in one place. I might move to the Kerguelen Islands.
In the four minutes I saw there was only a bunch of average people telling a smug sanctimonious prat why they are registering their disapproval at the fact that the country voted for something which the politicians have singularly failed to deliver.
There was no slam dunk look at the idiots moment there. Jones aside of course.
Agree. I watched the video hoping to see my Remainer prejudices validated.
> Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet
I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
> @rcs1000 said: > So what do they do when they cannot discover the fabled Unicorn?
I fear the righteous blame game will begin. The Brexit party people will join in too. The playbook is well-known: external enemies first (Brussels, Germans, French, UN), then internal (EU citizens, Remoaners, leftists, Muslims, other people of colour, Jews). The mirror will remain unexamined.
Norman Davies wrote an excellent book called Vanished Kingdoms which, among other things, looks at how mutable ideas of nationhood are. He touches on that in relation to Scotland.
The very firm lines of nation states is fairly modern I believe - even where the broad shapes have been in place a long time the idea of a nation has often been far weaker.
I have been meaning to read that book, I do own it but he does like a long book.
> I have never seen such a concentrated nexus of stupidity and malevolence in one place. I might move to the Kerguelen Islands.
>
> In the four minutes I saw there was only a bunch of average people telling a smug sanctimonious prat why they are registering their disapproval at the fact that the country voted for something which the politicians have singularly failed to deliver.
>
> There was no slam dunk look at the idiots moment there. Jones aside of course.
>
> Well there's the woman who says she wants to "get rid of" people like OS. There's the bloke who wants to close down the Guardian. There's another woman who thinks the EU is as totalitarian as the USSR. There's the soi disant hard man who keeps telling OS "to stand still while I'm talking to you". There is also a curious incel in a MAGA hat who I think posts on here.
>
> What stupid thickos they are, well spotted, you’re a clever guy 👏🏻
>
> Who’s OS by the way?
Owen Smith
Very politically aware of them, maybe they are ‘on the spectrum’!
> @Casino_Royale said: > I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers. > > I was just about to post the same thing. > > She’s available at 80/1 for next PM and 90/1 for next Conservative leader. > > That’s seriously good value. I could see her making it into the final two.
Full disclosure: she’s one of my big winners. But since par for me is a win of £2000 and I’m currently only down (£300) if Boris Johnson or Graham Brady win and become PM, I don’t need to talk my book.
> @JackW said: > @AlastairMeeks said: > > "I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers." > > ............................................................................................... > > McVey foaming on SKY News - Sophie Ridge - All our problems solved by £6bn cuts n International Development budget. > > Irish hard border replaced by technology and all by October BREXIT date. > > No mention of unicorns .... yet. > >
We do need to bear in mind that amongst the conditions for the extension was our government agreeing that there could be no renegotiation of the WA.
Irish hard border replaced by technology and all by October BREXIT date.
++++++++++++++
There's nothing fundamentally impossible about a high tech border in Northern Ireland. The US and Canada border has special truck lanes (called FAST - for "Free And Secure Trade) where vehicles with preregistered cargo can just drive through without stopping.
Indeed, the EU's own proposal for the Northern Irish border envisages such a system being in place by Sept/Oct 2020.
If the EU can make it mandatory to fit computer GPS speed-limit control devices to all of our cars then they, and we, can also track and process commercial vehicles for customs purposes.
It suits a number of people to use the NI border as a bargaining stick, though.
> @Gardenwalker said: > This is all very reassuring. > > > > I have never seen such a concentrated nexus of stupidity and malevolence in one place. I might move to the Kerguelen Islands. > > In the four minutes I saw there was only a bunch of average people telling a smug sanctimonious prat why they are registering their disapproval at the fact that the country voted for something which the politicians have singularly failed to deliver. > > There was no slam dunk look at the idiots moment there. Jones aside of course. > > Agree. I watched the video hoping to see my Remainer prejudices validated. > > I thought they were all surprisingly normal.
The 'Stand still when I'm talking to you' was classic schoolyard bully parlance.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum > > > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
Looks like the likes of Grieve, Lee and other remainers would, in extreme circumstances, attempt to stop a damaging no deal
> @kle4 said: > Norman Davies wrote an excellent book called Vanished Kingdoms which, among other things, looks at how mutable ideas of nationhood are. He touches on that in relation to Scotland. > > The very firm lines of nation states is fairly modern I believe - even where the broad shapes have been in place a long time the idea of a nation has often been far weaker. > > I have been meaning to read that book, I do own it but he does like a long book.
It’s very much a modular book. You don’t need to read it all at once or in the order he presents it.
So going directly for no deal not seeking a unicorn renegotiation. Thats something at least.
I am amazed if anybody thinks any version of the WA will be approved . What candidate with a chance is going to suggest that in a realistic way? And the simplicity of 'just leave' is so much easier than 'we will leave but I shall try to x and y first'
> @rcs1000 said: ++++++++++++++ > @HYUFD said: > https://twitter.com/EstherMcVey1/status/1132544349596733442?s=20 > ++++++++++++++ > > I have a lot more respect for people who come out and say this, than for people who pretend unicorns exist. > > However. I think it is equally important that Ms McVey is clear about the consequences of crashing out the EU without a deal. > > My fear is this: > > Most No Dealers are actually Unicorn Believers, who think that a little bit of backbone is all that is needed to make the EU remove the hated backstop. (You know, the backstop where the UK sells goods tariff free into the EU, benefits from its trade deals, and doesn't have to pay fees or accept Freedom of Movement.) > > So what do they do when they cannot discover the fabled Unicorn?
=======
"May's Deal" - flogging a dead horse ... "No Deal" - who needs horses? And when we do we can always get one, don't know how and didn't work the last time, but heck.
And because No Deal never will work, Brexit means flogging that apparently dead horse from now until the end of time.
So no, I don't have much respect for Esther McVey.
> Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum
>
> For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet
I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
> I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers.
>
> I was just about to post the same thing.
>
> She’s available at 80/1 for next PM and 90/1 for next Conservative leader.
>
> That’s seriously good value. I could see her making it into the final two.
Full disclosure: she’s one of my big winners. But since par for me is a win of £2000 and I’m currently only down (£300) if Boris Johnson or Graham Brady win and become PM, I don’t need to talk my book.
Mine: she’s a winner of +£700 for me, and I lose £260 with Boris. I am green with everyone else with a par of +£200. I am a very conservative gambler. Liz Truss, Geoffrey Cox and Suella Fernandes are (or were) my biggest winners.
I am of course jealous of your book - I find it’s a game of nerves, as well as analysis, and there will come a brown trouser time for me if Boris makes it into the final two.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers.
Appeared to interview quite well on Sky just now (and God knows they need a media performer after May.) Resigned over the Deal at the same time as Raab. Is sitting on a 15,000 majority. Absolutely hated by the Corbyn cult, who will get carried away slagging her off. Her position will doubtless alienate pro-Europeans, but the entire May experience shows that the Tories can't ride two horses at once: if they keep trying to please both sides of the Leave/Remain divide then they'll simply fall down the chasm in the middle.
I think there's an excellent chance that McVey as PM leads to a further Tory split, a GE and a high risk of a Corbyn-led Government, but at least the Tories ought to come out the other end of that trauma as a viable unit, rather than disintegrating and getting chewed up by Farage. And putting Labour into bat means making Corbyn cop the flak for sorting out (or trying to sort out) Brexit, whilst his MPs will be compelled to decide whether or not to back expropriation of property and sundry other Hard Left policies. We're also overdue the next recession, which under those circumstances would probably happen on his watch and might well be accelerated by his policies.
> @Foxy said: > > @JackW said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > "I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers." > > > > ............................................................................................... > > > > McVey foaming on SKY News - Sophie Ridge - All our problems solved by £6bn cuts n International Development budget. > > > > Irish hard border replaced by technology and all by October BREXIT date. > > > > No mention of unicorns .... yet. > > > > > > We do need to bear in mind that amongst the conditions for the extension was our government agreeing that there could be no renegotiation of the WA. > > https://twitter.com/kevinhorourke/status/1131959980691808262?s=19
It is surely an irrelevant condition. They will re-negotiate if we want but it will still involve us having to choose which of Mays red lines we are willing to break. They wont spend much time discussing Mays deal with a more favourable backstop.
> @Mango said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > So what do they do when they cannot discover the fabled Unicorn? > > I fear the righteous blame game will begin. The Brexit party people will join in too. The playbook is well-known: external enemies first (Brussels, Germans, French, UN), then internal (EU citizens, Remoaners, leftists, Muslims, other people of colour, Jews). The mirror will remain unexamined. > > Horrible times ahead. >
Yup - groundhog day approaches as there will be no deal without the withdrawal agreement. Right or wrong the EU has been very consistent on this point.
> @JackW said: > Sky News - "Sophie Ridge on Sunday". Damien Green hands out his black spot and backs Matt Hancock.
Guido already had Green in the Hancock camp. ConHome has added him. Punters are warned the lists are by no means identical although neither has Boris at the top.
@NickPalmer said: I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
+++++++++++++++
But it doesn't need the Tories to revolt. The DUP doesn't want the backstop, but it's not very keen on No Deal Brexit either. Indeed, its preferred order of outcome looks like this:
1. Exit from the EU, but the UK remaining in a Customs Union 2. Remaining 3. Anything else.
Their objection to Mrs May's deal was that it treated Northern Ireland differently to the rest of the UK.
No Deal Brexit could lose the Conservatives Grieve, any other deselected Tories, Greening and the DUP.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers. > > > > > > I was just about to post the same thing. > > > > > > She’s available at 80/1 for next PM and 90/1 for next Conservative leader. > > > > > > That’s seriously good value. I could see her making it into the final two. > > > > Full disclosure: she’s one of my big winners. But since par for me is a win of £2000 and I’m currently only down (£300) if Boris Johnson or Graham Brady win and become PM, I don’t need to talk my book. > > Mine: she’s a winner of +£700 for me, and I lose £260 with Boris. I am green with everyone else with a par of +£200. I am a very conservative gambler. Liz Truss, Geoffrey Cox and Suella Fernandes are (or were) my biggest winners. > > I am of course jealous of your book - I find it’s a game of nerves, as well as analysis, and there will come a brown trouser time for me if Boris makes it into the final two.
To be clear, I have other possible disappointments. Of the current runners and riders, Steve Baker and Rory Stewart would both be wins of just a few quid. I am not losing sleep about anyone other than Boris Johnson.
> @Casino_Royale said: > Philip Davies in No. 10 - if Esther gets it. > > > > Hopefully he would resign his seat to become a full-time consort. And I would get to vote in a by-election for the 3rd time ever. > > > > Yes, I've convinced myself - #Esther4Leader > > Hardly anyone knows that Philip Davies is her partner, more don’t even know who Philip Davies is at all and even more would say, ‘so what?’ > > Philip Davies or Philip May: you are voting for the candidate, not their spouse.
I'm just thinking of a fast-track way of getting rid of Davies as my MP!
"There's nothing fundamentally impossible about a high tech border in Northern Ireland. The US and Canada border has special truck lanes (called FAST - for "Free And Secure Trade) where vehicles with preregistered cargo can just drive through without stopping.
Indeed, the EU's own proposal for the Northern Irish border envisages such a system being in place by Sept/Oct 2020."
I agree that a USA/Canada system would be appropriate for major routes between Ulster and the Republic but there are a vast multitude of small official and unofficial crossing points that even during the "troubles" leaked like a tsunami through a giant sieve.
Additionally for McVey to state that a fully functioning would be in place by the end of October is risible.
The first demand from this Prime Ministerial audition is competence. A resounding fail from McVey this morning.
> @Black_Rook said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers. > > : if they keep trying to please both sides of the Leave/Remain divide then they'll simply fall down the chasm in the middle.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @NickPalmer said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum > > > > > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet > > > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else? > > Looks like the likes of Grieve, Lee and other remainers would, in extreme circumstances, attempt to stop a damaging no deal
What evidence is there of the Tory remainers folding? How did Letwin become a jobbing PM without Tory MP support? They will be bolstered in numbers and stature when the May cabinet can speak freely from the backbenches.
Yes nearly all the Tory party will accept a deal, that does not mean they will fold and accept no deal, they are absolutely clear they will not.
This is all such slow motion stuff - it seems inevitable it leads to a no deal backing candidate, either unicorn attempt first or straight up, and that the numbers in parliament dont support that. Therefore we will have a GE late this year.
Everything else just seems a waste of time when we know no candidate who doesnt at least accept no deal as their backup plan will have a chance with the Tory membership .already those not keen on that are making excuses to keep backing candidates who do.
> @kle4 said: > https://twitter.com/EstherMcVey1/status/1132544349596733442 > > > > So going directly for no deal not seeking a unicorn renegotiation. Thats something at least. > > I am amazed if anybody thinks any version of the WA will be approved . What candidate with a chance is going to suggest that in a realistic way? And the simplicity of 'just leave' is so much easier than 'we will leave but I shall try to x and y first'
It does seem as if we are going to have to go through a No Deal process. The good thing is that Johnson or whoever will own it and its consequences totally, having chosen to follow that path in the knowledge that the majority of the country was opposed.
Am I the only one who thinks a lot could change as the candidates have to set out their stalls and that the public could very quickly change their minds on who is the best/worst candidate to do this. And we know what the Tories want is a WINNER. Boris' only successful campaigning record was in the largely personality contest of the London mayoralty. If his rivals go for him he could fold quite easily.
Fraser Nelson reckons it's Boris' to lose. I don't agree and that attitude could kill him. He needs to actively win it.
Problem is the public don’t matter only the MPs and that broad representative church the Tory members
> @NickPalmer said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum > > > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
Slow sleepy start after a long election campaign followed by my busiest business month - but in case anyone hasn’t yet read it, the article ‘Five steps that Took the dancing queen to her Waterloo’ in the Times is absolutely incisive. Shippers is miles ahead of his journo competition.
> @nichomar said: > Am I the only one who thinks a lot could change as the candidates have to set out their stalls and that the public could very quickly change their minds on who is the best/worst candidate to do this. And we know what the Tories want is a WINNER. Boris' only successful campaigning record was in the largely personality contest of the London mayoralty. If his rivals go for him he could fold quite easily. > > > > Fraser Nelson reckons it's Boris' to lose. I don't agree and that attitude could kill him. He needs to actively win it. > > Problem is the public don’t matter only the MPs and that broad representative church the Tory members
But surely they will look at which candidates play well with the public? I keep being told the reason they want Boris is because he can beat Corbyn. That's highly debatable.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > Norman Davies wrote an excellent book called Vanished Kingdoms which, among other things, looks at how mutable ideas of nationhood are. He touches on that in relation to Scotland.
-------------------
I have that book which I have lent before reading. IIRC Davies was talking about the very fluid situation in Scotland before the Macmalcolm dynasty in 1058. Ideas of Scottish nationhood have been well established for a thousand years, which makes Scotland one of the oldest conceptual nations.
> > I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers.
>
> >
>
> > I was just about to post the same thing.
>
> >
>
> > She’s available at 80/1 for next PM and 90/1 for next Conservative leader.
>
> >
>
> > That’s seriously good value. I could see her making it into the final two.
>
>
>
> Full disclosure: she’s one of my big winners. But since par for me is a win of £2000 and I’m currently only down (£300) if Boris Johnson or Graham Brady win and become PM, I don’t need to talk my book.
>
> Mine: she’s a winner of +£700 for me, and I lose £260 with Boris. I am green with everyone else with a par of +£200. I am a very conservative gambler. Liz Truss, Geoffrey Cox and Suella Fernandes are (or were) my biggest winners.
>
> I am of course jealous of your book - I find it’s a game of nerves, as well as analysis, and there will come a brown trouser time for me if Boris makes it into the final two.
To be clear, I have other possible disappointments. Of the current runners and riders, Steve Baker and Rory Stewart would both be wins of just a few quid. I am not losing sleep about anyone other than Boris Johnson.
You should be losing sleep about Steve Baker... the few quid you win will be amply offset by the amount we'll each lose as his No Deal trashes the economy.
> > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum
> >
> > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet
>
> I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @kle4 said: > > https://twitter.com/EstherMcVey1/status/1132544349596733442 > > > > > > > > So going directly for no deal not seeking a unicorn renegotiation. Thats something at least. > > > > I am amazed if anybody thinks any version of the WA will be approved . What candidate with a chance is going to suggest that in a realistic way? And the simplicity of 'just leave' is so much easier than 'we will leave but I shall try to x and y first' > > It does seem as if we are going to have to go through a No Deal process. The good thing is that Johnson or whoever will own it and its consequences totally, having chosen to follow that path in the knowledge that the majority of the country was opposed.
More likely we have a PM wanting to no deal and parliament stopping them, so Boris or whoever wont own it. They can try a GE but again most likely it will be a hung parliament again with no majority for any solution. Gridlock and growing divsion shall be our future.
> @noneoftheabove said: > Yes nearly all the Tory party will accept a deal, that does not mean they will fold and accept no deal, they are absolutely clear they will not.
The electoral market for a wet centre-right, BINO option in any future GE will probably be roughly reflected in whatever is left of the Tory vote in this European election. I'd be shocked if that were much more than 10%.
Other than in Scotland, most of the Conservative party membership and core vote are now Leavers, and virtually all of their potential converts are Leavers as well. If Tory MPs go into a GE later this year on a platform of implementing the Withdrawal Agreement (which is the natural consequence of putting in a continuity May leader,) or going back to the EU and asking for Norway+CU instead, then it's all over. The Brexit Party would eat them alive.
> @Chris said: > "another Tory MP said Mark Reckless is ‘a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse’," > > That was rumoured to be Andrea Leadsom, wasn't it?
I really, really don't understand why people at the top of our political system, and indeed anyone else who comments in public, finds it necessary to use language that would get them thrown out of many pubs.
Took a look at PB.com this morning and thought the blockquotes issue had been sorted. But no, it just seems that the last few posts before I looked were just from people using this (frankly awful) Vanilla site.
Is it not possible to fix the PB.com blockquotes issue?
> @rcs1000 said: > > But it doesn't need the Tories to revolt. The DUP doesn't want the backstop, but it's not very keen on No Deal Brexit either. Indeed, its preferred order of outcome looks like this: > > 1. Exit from the EU, but the UK remaining in a Customs Union > 2. Remaining > 3. Anything else. > > Their objection to Mrs May's deal was that it treated Northern Ireland differently to the rest of the UK. > -----------------
The UK remaining in a customs union isn't sufficient to avoid treating Northern Ireland differently, which is why the single customs territory backstop is still unacceptable to them.
I think the DUP's tactical support for No Deal is similar to the ERG's but they just have very different bottom lines.
> > Looks like the likes of Grieve, Lee and other remainers would, in extreme circumstances, attempt to stop a damaging no deal
I'm sure they would - absolutely that they'd vote for a motion instructing the Government to accept the WA, for instance. But support an Opposition VONC? Not convinced. And short of that, Boris or Raab or whoever can simply shrug and let No Deal happen.
> > I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers.
>
> >
>
> > I was just about to post the same thing.
>
> >
>
> > She’s available at 80/1 for next PM and 90/1 for next Conservative leader.
>
> >
>
> > That’s seriously good value. I could see her making it into the final two.
>
>
>
> Full disclosure: she’s one of my big winners. But since par for me is a win of £2000 and I’m currently only down (£300) if Boris Johnson or Graham Brady win and become PM, I don’t need to talk my book.
>
> Mine: she’s a winner of +£700 for me, and I lose £260 with Boris. I am green with everyone else with a par of +£200. I am a very conservative gambler. Liz Truss, Geoffrey Cox and Suella Fernandes are (or were) my biggest winners.
>
> I am of course jealous of your book - I find it’s a game of nerves, as well as analysis, and there will come a brown trouser time for me if Boris makes it into the final two.
To be clear, I have other possible disappointments. Of the current runners and riders, Steve Baker and Rory Stewart would both be wins of just a few quid. I am not losing sleep about anyone other than Boris Johnson.
You should be losing sleep about Steve Baker... the few quid you win will be amply offset by the amount we'll each lose as his No Deal trashes the economy.
They will all go for no deal in the end if they want to win so it hardly matters which wins. Then we see what parliament does in response. Could well end up being one of shortest PM tenures ever - its hard to have less than the 120 days or so of the record.
Comments
> > @TOPPING said:
>
> > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support.
>
> >
>
> > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour.
>
> >
>
> > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party.
>
>
>
> No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2
>
> The MPs won't put with or withouters to the membership.
Enough will given IDS, Davis and Leadsom all made the final 2 in the last 3 leadership races.
If MPs try to stitch up 2 Remainers Tory members will start deselecting them as Labour members have started deselecting Blairites
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @TOPPING said:
> > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support.
> > >
> > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour.
> > >
> > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party.
> >
> > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2
>
> They don't need to. They simply VONC the members' choice.
Fine, a general election under a Leaver in the autumn offers far better Tory prospects than yet another Remainer as Leader and annihilation by the Brexit Party in a few years time
> https://twitter.com/EstherMcVey1/status/1132544349596733442?s=20
Just words to please the brexiteers. Each candidate needs to elaborate how they arrive at no deal without their fellow mps vonc with labour to dispose of them
This will be a high wire act.
Only one candidate has the experience.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @TOPPING said:
> > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support.
> > >
> > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour.
> > >
> > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party.
> >
> > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2
>
> I have noo doubt that a leaver will be in the ballot but I have every doubt it wil be a hard no deal brexiteer. I am looking forward to the grilling of all the candidates ahead but I will not vote for Boris or Rabb
One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @TOPPING said:
> > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support.
> > >
> > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour.
> > >
> > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party.
> >
> > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2
>
> They don't need to. They simply VONC the members' choice.
I wonder what the Betfair rules are on next PM.* Are they next PM as soon as the Tory members' choice is announced or do they need the confidence of the House?
Mrs May will still be PM on the announcement and could intervene by not recommending the winner to the Queen (as I think is the requirement) until the appointment is confirmed by the House.
* The Betfair rules are "This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom." So it does requires the Queen's permission based on the recommendation of the outgoing PM.
> The MPs won't put with or withouters to the membership.
Then they might as well have stuck with Theresa May.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/EstherMcVey1/status/1132544349596733442?s=20
>
> Just words to please the brexiteers. Each candidate needs to elaborate how they arrive at no deal without their fellow mps vonc with labour to dispose of them
What must George think of his successor...
As for reckless he's a
AFK for a bit.
> > @Barnesian said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @TOPPING said:
> > > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support.
> > > >
> > > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour.
> > > >
> > > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party.
> > >
> > > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2
> >
> > They don't need to. They simply VONC the members' choice.
>
> Fine, a general election under a Leaver in the autumn offers far better Tory prospects than yet another Remainer as Leader and annihilation by the Brexit Party in a few years time
No it does not. It would fracture the party and allow a labour party intent on stopping brexit into power. You constantly parrot how Corbyn would win a GE with support from the SNP and in those circumstances brexit is finished for a generation
> > @TOPPING said:
> > The MPs won't put with or withouters to the membership.
>
> Then they might as well have stuck with Theresa May.
Yep. There is no way out of the maze.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @TOPPING said:
> > > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support.
> > > >
> > > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour.
> > > >
> > > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party.
> > >
> > > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2
> >
> > I have noo doubt that a leaver will be in the ballot but I have every doubt it wil be a hard no deal brexiteer. I am looking forward to the grilling of all the candidates ahead but I will not vote for Boris or Rabb
>
> One of Boris, Raab, McVey or even Baker will make the last 2.
>
>
Baker has no chance whatsoever
The Brexit Party Policy, is No Deal No Plan Brexit. It is just atavistic glee, not a policy.
> > @CD13 said:
> > I can see Boris being PM. I could see Trump being POTUS, but I'd suggest that JFK was one of the best Presidents.
> >
> > The reason being he collected the experts around him and listened to them. Then he made a value judgement. He also shagged anything with a pulse, but I forgive him that because of the Cuban missile crisis.
> >
> > Trump fails the test in many ways. Would Boris? I know little about his spell of being Mayor of some small town in Surrey. Brown micromanaged things he knew little about, so he fails the test too. Corbyn? Shudder. Obama? I'm not sure what he did, so I can't judge. Ken? Too political.
> >
> > Who of the contenders for the Tory party leadership and for PM is JFK material? Probably none, but I don't see anyone in the HoC who would fit either.
>
> Of the contenders, Boris is the nearest to JFK.
>
> That shouldn't be taken as an unalloyed compliment.
>
> But from what I've heard from those inside his Mayorlaty, he genuinely managed to enthuse the team around him. Although bouncing a basketball throughout a lengthy meeting of Cabinet might become tiresome....
On the upside, Boris did enthuse people, and he was willing to appoint well regarded experts and let them get on with the detail (which he doesn't do).
On the downside, he was interested primarily in self promotion, uninterested in the boring detail of the day job and bread and butter issues like crime or housing, and motivated solely by eye catching big schemes with which he could be associated, with utter disregard for their practicality or cost. The bikes (actually an idea he inherited), cable car to nowhere, abortive garden bridge, the offshore airport, etc. In meetings he got bored very easily and amused himself and frustrated others by trying to turn everything into a joke. He disliked being challenged or held to account.
https://twitter.com/EstherMcVey1/status/1132544349596733442?s=20
++++++++++++++
I have a lot more respect for people who come out and say this, than for people who pretend unicorns exist.
However. I think it is equally important that Ms McVey is clear about the consequences of crashing out the EU without a deal.
My fear is this:
Most No Dealers are actually Unicorn Believers, who think that a little bit of backbone is all that is needed to make the EU remove the hated backstop. (You know, the backstop where the UK sells goods tariff free into the EU, benefits from its trade deals, and doesn't have to pay fees or accept Freedom of Movement.)
So what do they do when they cannot discover the fabled Unicorn?
> If I was a Tory MP I would be backing Gove. I believe he is the most able of the candidates, would take a pragmatic approach to sorting out Brexit and electing him would be best for the country.
>
> Being purely partisan, let them elect Esther. She will repel voters and give Labour a boost at the next GE.
>
> On a gut feeling, please let it be anyone but Boris.
As a tory member, I would agree with all those sentiments.. .. But not just Esther would be in the middle paragraph, plenty of others sadly.
> > @Barnesian said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @TOPPING said:
> > > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support.
> > > >
> > > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour.
> > > >
> > > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party.
> > >
> > > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2
> >
> > They don't need to. They simply VONC the members' choice.
>
> Fine, a general election under a Leaver in the autumn offers far better Tory prospects than yet another Remainer as Leader and annihilation by the Brexit Party in a few years time
So that's an October GE. I've already got money on that.
The House will ensure the UK asks for an extension and the EU will say yes.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Barnesian said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @TOPPING said:
> > > > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support.
> > > > >
> > > > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour.
> > > > >
> > > > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party.
> > > >
> > > > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2
> > >
> > > They don't need to. They simply VONC the members' choice.
> >
> > Fine, a general election under a Leaver in the autumn offers far better Tory prospects than yet another Remainer as Leader and annihilation by the Brexit Party in a few years time
>
> So that's an October GE. I've already got money on that.
>
> The House will ensure the UK asks for an extension and the EU will say yes.
And it is the way to end Brexit once and for all
> > @CD13 said:
> > Since the referendum, I've heard a few people complain about democracy. usually along the lines of …. "Some people are too stupid to vote." The reason? They don't think the same way as the speaker on politics.
> >
> > They tend to be posh. In Guardian-speak, they have been seduced by 'populism'. Wiki defines it as 'a political approach that strives to appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups.'
> >
> > That is a bad thing? Only if you are a member of that established elite group, or think you are.
> >
> > There are some amusing results of the referendum, and this is one of them..
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
> Agreed and it ha been added to on here and elsewhere by a very unpleasant and quite vicious ageism. I prefer the old politics where win or lose you respect the result and move on seeking to persuade rather than belittle and demonise your opponent.
The reason people are complaining about democracy from both leave "betraying democracy" and remain "too stupid to vote" is mostly the referendum. By putting two different types of democracy, elective parliamentary democracy vs the referendum in direct conflict with each other, we have polarised the debate and made clear some of the problems with each type of democracy.
With the referendum it is too blunt an instrument to manage the detail, with the elective parliament you can get gridlock and manipulation by factional interests.
The other major changes are social media and 24 hour news, both of these have a profound and negative effect on our political system.
The old politics is not coming back, we should instead understand the many issues with our current democracy so we can tweak it to best manage the next 50 years of governance.
> To become the next PM he/she will be willing to have a clean unconditional Brexit. But the present parliament will not agree to that, so there will have to be a general election. In the run up to that there will need to be an accommodation with TBP to avoid a Corbyn government.
> This will be a high wire act.
> Only one candidate has the experience.
>
Theresa?
> Norman Davies wrote an excellent book called Vanished Kingdoms which, among other things, looks at how mutable ideas of nationhood are. He touches on that in relation to Scotland.
I am reading it currently.
Fraser Nelson reckons it's Boris' to lose. I don't agree and that attitude could kill him. He needs to actively win it.
Revolutions always tend to the extreme, then consume themselves
Who’s OS by the way?
"I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers."
...............................................................................................
McVey foaming on SKY News - Sophie Ridge - All our problems solved by £6bn cuts n International Development budget.
Irish hard border replaced by technology and all by October BREXIT date.
No mention of unicorns .... yet.
> This is all very reassuring.
>
>
>
> I have never seen such a concentrated nexus of stupidity and malevolence in one place. I might move to the Kerguelen Islands.
>
> In the four minutes I saw there was only a bunch of average people telling a smug sanctimonious prat why they are registering their disapproval at the fact that the country voted for something which the politicians have singularly failed to deliver.
>
> There was no slam dunk look at the idiots moment there. Jones aside of course.
>
> Well there's the woman who says she wants to "get rid of" people like OS. There's the bloke who wants to close down the Guardian. There's another woman who thinks the EU is as totalitarian as the USSR. There's the soi disant hard man who keeps telling OS "to stand still while I'm talking to you". There is also a curious incel in a MAGA hat who I think posts on here.
>
> What stupid thickos they are, well spotted, you’re a clever guy 👏🏻
>
> Who’s OS by the way?
Owen Smith
> @HYUFD said:
> https://twitter.com/EstherMcVey1/status/1132544349596733442?s=20
>
> ++++++++++++++
>
> I have a lot more respect for people who come out and say this, than for people who pretend unicorns exist.
>
> However. I think it is equally important that Ms McVey is clear about the consequences of crashing out the EU without a deal.
>
> My fear is this:
>
> Most No Dealers are actually Unicorn Believers, who think that a little bit of backbone is all that is needed to make the EU remove the hated backstop. (You know, the backstop where the UK sells goods tariff free into the EU, benefits from its trade deals, and doesn't have to pay fees or accept Freedom of Movement.)
>
> So what do they do when they cannot discover the fabled Unicorn?
Ask for the backstop to be renamed the wicket keeper ?
> Esther not convincing on Sophy and re-heating all the old arguments on the Irish border
>
>
Colour me surprised. One has to wonder why a telegenic former media personality would be so low down in the odds.
She’s available at 80/1 for next PM and 90/1 for next Conservative leader.
That’s seriously good value. I could see her making it into the final two.
Irish hard border replaced by technology and all by October BREXIT date.
++++++++++++++
There's nothing fundamentally impossible about a high tech border in Northern Ireland. The US and Canada border has special truck lanes (called FAST - for "Free And Secure Trade) where vehicles with preregistered cargo can just drive through without stopping.
Indeed, the EU's own proposal for the Northern Irish border envisages such a system being in place by Sept/Oct 2020.
So it’s between Penny and Esther for PM.
I thought they were all surprisingly normal.
> Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum
>
> For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet
I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
> So what do they do when they cannot discover the fabled Unicorn?
I fear the righteous blame game will begin. The Brexit party people will join in too. The playbook is well-known: external enemies first (Brussels, Germans, French, UN), then internal (EU citizens, Remoaners, leftists, Muslims, other people of colour, Jews). The mirror will remain unexamined.
Horrible times ahead.
I have been meaning to read that book, I do own it but he does like a long book.
> I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers.
>
> I was just about to post the same thing.
>
> She’s available at 80/1 for next PM and 90/1 for next Conservative leader.
>
> That’s seriously good value. I could see her making it into the final two.
Full disclosure: she’s one of my big winners. But since par for me is a win of £2000 and I’m currently only down (£300) if Boris Johnson or Graham Brady win and become PM, I don’t need to talk my book.
> @AlastairMeeks said:
>
> "I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers."
>
> ...............................................................................................
>
> McVey foaming on SKY News - Sophie Ridge - All our problems solved by £6bn cuts n International Development budget.
>
> Irish hard border replaced by technology and all by October BREXIT date.
>
> No mention of unicorns .... yet.
>
>
We do need to bear in mind that amongst the conditions for the extension was our government agreeing that there could be no renegotiation of the WA.
https://twitter.com/kevinhorourke/status/1131959980691808262?s=19
It suits a number of people to use the NI border as a bargaining stick, though.
> This is all very reassuring.
>
>
>
> I have never seen such a concentrated nexus of stupidity and malevolence in one place. I might move to the Kerguelen Islands.
>
> In the four minutes I saw there was only a bunch of average people telling a smug sanctimonious prat why they are registering their disapproval at the fact that the country voted for something which the politicians have singularly failed to deliver.
>
> There was no slam dunk look at the idiots moment there. Jones aside of course.
>
> Agree. I watched the video hoping to see my Remainer prejudices validated.
>
> I thought they were all surprisingly normal.
The 'Stand still when I'm talking to you' was classic schoolyard bully parlance.
> I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers.
McVey has a shrill scouse accent.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum
> >
> > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet
>
> I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
Looks like the likes of Grieve, Lee and other remainers would, in extreme circumstances, attempt to stop a damaging no deal
> Norman Davies wrote an excellent book called Vanished Kingdoms which, among other things, looks at how mutable ideas of nationhood are. He touches on that in relation to Scotland.
>
> The very firm lines of nation states is fairly modern I believe - even where the broad shapes have been in place a long time the idea of a nation has often been far weaker.
>
> I have been meaning to read that book, I do own it but he does like a long book.
It’s very much a modular book. You don’t need to read it all at once or in the order he presents it.
I am amazed if anybody thinks any version of the WA will be approved . What candidate with a chance is going to suggest that in a realistic way? And the simplicity of 'just leave' is so much easier than 'we will leave but I shall try to x and y first'
Hopefully he would resign his seat to become a full-time consort. And I would get to vote in a by-election for the 3rd time ever.
Yes, I've convinced myself - #Esther4Leader
++++++++++++++
> @HYUFD said:
> https://twitter.com/EstherMcVey1/status/1132544349596733442?s=20
>
++++++++++++++
>
> I have a lot more respect for people who come out and say this, than for people who pretend unicorns exist.
>
> However. I think it is equally important that Ms McVey is clear about the consequences of crashing out the EU without a deal.
>
> My fear is this:
>
> Most No Dealers are actually Unicorn Believers, who think that a little bit of backbone is all that is needed to make the EU remove the hated backstop. (You know, the backstop where the UK sells goods tariff free into the EU, benefits from its trade deals, and doesn't have to pay fees or accept Freedom of Movement.)
>
> So what do they do when they cannot discover the fabled Unicorn?
=======
"May's Deal" - flogging a dead horse ...
"No Deal" - who needs horses? And when we do we can always get one, don't know how and didn't work the last time, but heck.
And because No Deal never will work, Brexit means flogging that apparently dead horse from now until the end of time.
So no, I don't have much respect for Esther McVey.
I am of course jealous of your book - I find it’s a game of nerves, as well as analysis, and there will come a brown trouser time for me if Boris makes it into the final two.
> I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers.
Appeared to interview quite well on Sky just now (and God knows they need a media performer after May.) Resigned over the Deal at the same time as Raab. Is sitting on a 15,000 majority. Absolutely hated by the Corbyn cult, who will get carried away slagging her off. Her position will doubtless alienate pro-Europeans, but the entire May experience shows that the Tories can't ride two horses at once: if they keep trying to please both sides of the Leave/Remain divide then they'll simply fall down the chasm in the middle.
I think there's an excellent chance that McVey as PM leads to a further Tory split, a GE and a high risk of a Corbyn-led Government, but at least the Tories ought to come out the other end of that trauma as a viable unit, rather than disintegrating and getting chewed up by Farage. And putting Labour into bat means making Corbyn cop the flak for sorting out (or trying to sort out) Brexit, whilst his MPs will be compelled to decide whether or not to back expropriation of property and sundry other Hard Left policies. We're also overdue the next recession, which under those circumstances would probably happen on his watch and might well be accelerated by his policies.
> > @JackW said:
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> >
> > "I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers."
> >
> > ...............................................................................................
> >
> > McVey foaming on SKY News - Sophie Ridge - All our problems solved by £6bn cuts n International Development budget.
> >
> > Irish hard border replaced by technology and all by October BREXIT date.
> >
> > No mention of unicorns .... yet.
> >
> >
>
> We do need to bear in mind that amongst the conditions for the extension was our government agreeing that there could be no renegotiation of the WA.
>
> https://twitter.com/kevinhorourke/status/1131959980691808262?s=19
It is surely an irrelevant condition. They will re-negotiate if we want but it will still involve us having to choose which of Mays red lines we are willing to break. They wont spend much time discussing Mays deal with a more favourable backstop.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > So what do they do when they cannot discover the fabled Unicorn?
>
> I fear the righteous blame game will begin. The Brexit party people will join in too. The playbook is well-known: external enemies first (Brussels, Germans, French, UN), then internal (EU citizens, Remoaners, leftists, Muslims, other people of colour, Jews). The mirror will remain unexamined.
>
> Horrible times ahead.
>
Yup - groundhog day approaches as there will be no deal without the withdrawal agreement. Right or wrong the EU has been very consistent on this point.
> Sky News - "Sophie Ridge on Sunday". Damien Green hands out his black spot and backs Matt Hancock.
Guido already had Green in the Hancock camp. ConHome has added him. Punters are warned the lists are by no means identical although neither has Boris at the top.
https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2019/05/leadership-election-candidate-support-numbers-hunt-27-johnson-19-raab-13-gove-12-javid-10.html
https://order-order.com/2019/05/25/gove-raab-getting-supporters-open/
Philip Davies or Philip May: you are voting for the candidate, not their spouse.
I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
+++++++++++++++
But it doesn't need the Tories to revolt. The DUP doesn't want the backstop, but it's not very keen on No Deal Brexit either. Indeed, its preferred order of outcome looks like this:
1. Exit from the EU, but the UK remaining in a Customs Union
2. Remaining
3. Anything else.
Their objection to Mrs May's deal was that it treated Northern Ireland differently to the rest of the UK.
No Deal Brexit could lose the Conservatives Grieve, any other deselected Tories, Greening and the DUP.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers.
>
> >
>
> > I was just about to post the same thing.
>
> >
>
> > She’s available at 80/1 for next PM and 90/1 for next Conservative leader.
>
> >
>
> > That’s seriously good value. I could see her making it into the final two.
>
>
>
> Full disclosure: she’s one of my big winners. But since par for me is a win of £2000 and I’m currently only down (£300) if Boris Johnson or Graham Brady win and become PM, I don’t need to talk my book.
>
> Mine: she’s a winner of +£700 for me, and I lose £260 with Boris. I am green with everyone else with a par of +£200. I am a very conservative gambler. Liz Truss, Geoffrey Cox and Suella Fernandes are (or were) my biggest winners.
>
> I am of course jealous of your book - I find it’s a game of nerves, as well as analysis, and there will come a brown trouser time for me if Boris makes it into the final two.
To be clear, I have other possible disappointments. Of the current runners and riders, Steve Baker and Rory Stewart would both be wins of just a few quid. I am not losing sleep about anyone other than Boris Johnson.
> Philip Davies in No. 10 - if Esther gets it.
>
>
>
> Hopefully he would resign his seat to become a full-time consort. And I would get to vote in a by-election for the 3rd time ever.
>
>
>
> Yes, I've convinced myself - #Esther4Leader
>
> Hardly anyone knows that Philip Davies is her partner, more don’t even know who Philip Davies is at all and even more would say, ‘so what?’
>
> Philip Davies or Philip May: you are voting for the candidate, not their spouse.
I'm just thinking of a fast-track way of getting rid of Davies as my MP!
"There's nothing fundamentally impossible about a high tech border in Northern Ireland. The US and Canada border has special truck lanes (called FAST - for "Free And Secure Trade) where vehicles with preregistered cargo can just drive through without stopping.
Indeed, the EU's own proposal for the Northern Irish border envisages such a system being in place by Sept/Oct 2020."
.............................................................................................
I agree that a USA/Canada system would be appropriate for major routes between Ulster and the Republic but there are a vast multitude of small official and unofficial crossing points that even during the "troubles" leaked like a tsunami through a giant sieve.
Additionally for McVey to state that a fully functioning would be in place by the end of October is risible.
The first demand from this Prime Ministerial audition is competence. A resounding fail from McVey this morning.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers.
>
> : if they keep trying to please both sides of the Leave/Remain divide then they'll simply fall down the chasm in the middle.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > @NickPalmer said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> >
> > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum
> > >
> > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet
> >
> > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
>
> Looks like the likes of Grieve, Lee and other remainers would, in extreme circumstances, attempt to stop a damaging no deal
What evidence is there of the Tory remainers folding? How did Letwin become a jobbing PM without Tory MP support? They will be bolstered in numbers and stature when the May cabinet can speak freely from the backbenches.
Yes nearly all the Tory party will accept a deal, that does not mean they will fold and accept no deal, they are absolutely clear they will not.
Additionally for McVey to state that a fully functioning would be in place by the end of October is risible.
+++++++++++++++
I wouldn't disagree with that. I think it's a three year project if properly managed.
So, probably five years is realistic.
Everything else just seems a waste of time when we know no candidate who doesnt at least accept no deal as their backup plan will have a chance with the Tory membership .already those not keen on that are making excuses to keep backing candidates who do.
> https://twitter.com/EstherMcVey1/status/1132544349596733442
>
>
>
> So going directly for no deal not seeking a unicorn renegotiation. Thats something at least.
>
> I am amazed if anybody thinks any version of the WA will be approved . What candidate with a chance is going to suggest that in a realistic way? And the simplicity of 'just leave' is so much easier than 'we will leave but I shall try to x and y first'
It does seem as if we are going to have to go through a No Deal process. The good thing is that Johnson or whoever will own it and its consequences totally, having chosen to follow that path in the knowledge that the majority of the country was opposed.
PS/S (Progressive Slovakia, Liberals) 20.1%. - 4 seats (+4)
SMER (Social Democrats) 15.7% - 3 seats (-1)
LSNS (People's Party Our Slovakia) 12% -2 seats (+2)
KDH (Christian Democrats) 9.7%. - 2 seats (=)
SaS (Freedom and Solidarity) 9.6% - 2 seats (+1)
OlENO (Ordinary People) 5.3% - 1 seats (=)
SMK (Party of the Hungarian Community) 5%. 0 seat (-1)
SNS (Slovak National Party) 4.1% 0
KU 3.8% 0
Sme Rodina (We Are Family) 3.8% 0
MosLH (Hungarian minority) 2.6% (-1)
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum
> >
> > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet
>
> I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
*************************************************************************
The Tory Remainer rebels didn't fold on no deal. On the contrary.
Can you imagine Hammond, Grieve, Letwin, Rudd etc supporting a hard no dealer if there is a softer alternative in the runner up.
Incidentally I don't think Boris is a no dealer though he has to pretend to be. Farage has seen that.
That was rumoured to be Andrea Leadsom, wasn't it?
Took the dancing queen to her Waterloo’ in the Times is absolutely incisive. Shippers is miles ahead of his journo competition.
> Am I the only one who thinks a lot could change as the candidates have to set out their stalls and that the public could very quickly change their minds on who is the best/worst candidate to do this. And we know what the Tories want is a WINNER. Boris' only successful campaigning record was in the largely personality contest of the London mayoralty. If his rivals go for him he could fold quite easily.
>
>
>
> Fraser Nelson reckons it's Boris' to lose. I don't agree and that attitude could kill him. He needs to actively win it.
>
> Problem is the public don’t matter only the MPs and that broad representative church the Tory members
But surely they will look at which candidates play well with the public? I keep being told the reason they want Boris is because he can beat Corbyn. That's highly debatable.
> Norman Davies wrote an excellent book called Vanished Kingdoms which, among other things, looks at how mutable ideas of nationhood are. He touches on that in relation to Scotland.
-------------------
I have that book which I have lent before reading. IIRC Davies was talking about the very fluid situation in Scotland before the Macmalcolm dynasty in 1058. Ideas of Scottish nationhood have been well established for a thousand years, which makes Scotland one of the oldest conceptual nations.
But I need to read the book.
> Slovakia results
>
> PS/S (Progressive Slovakia, Liberals) 20.1%. - 4 seats (+4)
> SMER (Social Democrats) 15.7% - 3 seats (-1)
> LSNS (People's Party Our Slovakia) 12% -2 seats (+2)
> KDH (Christian Democrats) 9.7%. - 2 seats (=)
> SaS (Freedom and Solidarity) 9.6% - 2 seats (+1)
> OlENO (Ordinary People) 5.3% - 1 seats (=)
> SMK (Party of the Hungarian Community) 5%. 0 seat (-1)
> SNS (Slovak National Party) 4.1% 0
> KU 3.8% 0
> Sme Rodina (We Are Family) 3.8% 0
> MosLH (Hungarian minority) 2.6% (-1)
Thought we weren't supposed to get anyone's results before this evening?
> Slovakia results
>
> PS/S (Progressive Slovakia, Liberals) 20.1%. - 4 seats (+4)
> SMER (Social Democrats) 15.7% - 3 seats (-1)
> LSNS (People's Party Our Slovakia) 12% -2 seats (+2)
> KDH (Christian Democrats) 9.7%. - 2 seats (=)
> SaS (Freedom and Solidarity) 9.6% - 2 seats (+1)
> OlENO (Ordinary People) 5.3% - 1 seats (=)
> SMK (Party of the Hungarian Community) 5%. 0 seat (-1)
> SNS (Slovak National Party) 4.1% 0
> KU 3.8% 0
> Sme Rodina (We Are Family) 3.8% 0
> MosLH (Hungarian minority) 2.6% (-1)
Sounds quite positive from a centre-left viewpoint? How come they get to announce before 22.00?
> > @kle4 said:
> > https://twitter.com/EstherMcVey1/status/1132544349596733442
> >
> >
> >
> > So going directly for no deal not seeking a unicorn renegotiation. Thats something at least.
> >
> > I am amazed if anybody thinks any version of the WA will be approved . What candidate with a chance is going to suggest that in a realistic way? And the simplicity of 'just leave' is so much easier than 'we will leave but I shall try to x and y first'
>
> It does seem as if we are going to have to go through a No Deal process. The good thing is that Johnson or whoever will own it and its consequences totally, having chosen to follow that path in the knowledge that the majority of the country was opposed.
More likely we have a PM wanting to no deal and parliament stopping them, so Boris or whoever wont own it. They can try a GE but again most likely it will be a hung parliament again with no majority for any solution. Gridlock and growing divsion shall be our future.
> Yes nearly all the Tory party will accept a deal, that does not mean they will fold and accept no deal, they are absolutely clear they will not.
The electoral market for a wet centre-right, BINO option in any future GE will probably be roughly reflected in whatever is left of the Tory vote in this European election. I'd be shocked if that were much more than 10%.
Other than in Scotland, most of the Conservative party membership and core vote are now Leavers, and virtually all of their potential converts are Leavers as well. If Tory MPs go into a GE later this year on a platform of implementing the Withdrawal Agreement (which is the natural consequence of putting in a continuity May leader,) or going back to the EU and asking for Norway+CU instead, then it's all over. The Brexit Party would eat them alive.
> "another Tory MP said Mark Reckless is ‘a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse’,"
>
> That was rumoured to be Andrea Leadsom, wasn't it?
I really, really don't understand why people at the top of our political system, and indeed anyone else who comments in public, finds it necessary to use language that would get them thrown out of many pubs.
And yes, I do go into pubs. Regularly.
Is it not possible to fix the PB.com blockquotes issue?
>
> But it doesn't need the Tories to revolt. The DUP doesn't want the backstop, but it's not very keen on No Deal Brexit either. Indeed, its preferred order of outcome looks like this:
>
> 1. Exit from the EU, but the UK remaining in a Customs Union
> 2. Remaining
> 3. Anything else.
>
> Their objection to Mrs May's deal was that it treated Northern Ireland differently to the rest of the UK.
>
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The UK remaining in a customs union isn't sufficient to avoid treating Northern Ireland differently, which is why the single customs territory backstop is still unacceptable to them.
I think the DUP's tactical support for No Deal is similar to the ERG's but they just have very different bottom lines.
>
> Looks like the likes of Grieve, Lee and other remainers would, in extreme circumstances, attempt to stop a damaging no deal
I'm sure they would - absolutely that they'd vote for a motion instructing the Government to accept the WA, for instance. But support an Opposition VONC? Not convinced. And short of that, Boris or Raab or whoever can simply shrug and let No Deal happen.