Mr. Walker, even that ministerial point is relatively better, by far, than Boris, who was a dire Foreign Secretary who only resigned because he was aping Davis. He could've done it a week or two earlier on a point of principle, but chose to hide in Afghanistan instead.
> @FF43 said: > > @Black_Rook said: > > > The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise. > > > > This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get. > > -------------------- > > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't. > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium.
LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke.
Indeed. Listening back to it, she is effectively accepting that CUK is a lifeboat or shell party, waiting for an influx of defecting Tory and/or Labour MPs and then coming to terms with the LibDems to form a new broader party. Its a not impossible scenario, particularly if a no deal exit starts to loom.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > Does a “clean break” mean that we don’t pay the EU what we legally owe? Because that takes us straight to legal action and problems in the bond market (our deficit and debt say hello). That’s just one of the many questions which need answering. > > > ------- > > Raab just said he'd be happy to arbitrate it and thinks we'd get at least £25bn back. > >
So he expects us to get back more than we pay in?
As a complete aside, when is the EU budget next up for negotiation again? My understanding is that it is one of the very few areas still needing unanimity in which case a recalcitrant UK could make a real mess of things for the rest of the EU.
The problem CUK have with allying themselves with the LDs is that the latter are about to anoint Swinson who, in the words of Attlee, is “just not up to it”.
I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers.
I was just about to post the same thing.
She’s available at 80/1 for next PM and 90/1 for next Conservative leader.
That’s seriously good value. I could see her making it into the final two.
With such a big field I'd say literally anybody could win. I am just doing spreadsheet to work out what the odds of backing every single candidate is if you assume everyone has the same chance.
> > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else? > > > > Maybe Dominic Grieve, Justine Greening ,Philip Lee, Rory Stewart? > > These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time > > Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey > > Add in > > Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote. > > Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary. > > Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal.
Just 5 minutes googling for some quotes on those at the top of the list:
Bebb - "I think the prime minister is clearly in danger of allowing people to claim that she is putting party before country.I think that is truly concerning for somebody such as myself."
Mr Benyon has previously backed a deal and been opposed to a no deal Brexit said: "I think no deal would be different from what most people expect but it would still be a very bad situation indeed."
Brine - "The idea of some sort of clean break, that we would walk away with nothing else to do with each other like a couple with no children, is utter nonsense."
Burt - It was very late on Monday evening that he made up his mind. Knowing some of his colleagues were advocating a no deal scenario, he felt compelled to act. “It’s necessary to demonstrate that some of us feel so strongly about this that we would put as much on the line as they’ve been prepared to put on the line in order to make sure that doesn’t happen,” he explains.
The idea that all of these are folding is not at all reflected by events.
> Tomorrow’s politics studies course in how not to launch a new party.
Indeed. Listening back to it, she is effectively accepting that CUK is a lifeboat or shell party, waiting for an influx of defecting Tory and/or Labour MPs and then coming to terms with the LibDems to form a new broader party. Its a not impossible scenario, particularly if a no deal exit starts to loom.
Heidi should just have joined the Lib Dems if she thought the Conservatives had moved away from her, she’d have been in with a good shout as a future leader.
Instead, shackling herself to the dying embers of the Chaka Ummuna Vanity Project has cost her a lot of political capital.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @FF43 said: > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise. > > > > > > This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get. > > > > -------------------- > > > > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't. > > > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium. > > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke.
You reveal your lack of understanding there. Regaining our credibility and influence from here might however be more of a challenge.
The Queen does not have to ask for such advice from the departing PM - nor would she be pbliged to accept it if given. She will have her own constitutional advisers. In January 1957 Eden did not recommend a successor.
************************************************************************** So it's not the Tory membership, nor MPs in Parliament who chose the next PM - it's the Queen. Fingers crossed for her longevity - otherwise it is Charles who determines our future.
There’s definitely a scenario in which the identity of the new Con leader leads to a number of MPs crossing the floor or the loss of DUP support. It’s not impossible that HMQ refuses Mrs May’s resignation as PM and dissolves Parliament after a fortnight for a summer election.
She's still bad. That doesn't mean things can't get worse, of course. And part of that is because May negotiated so poorly, ran her election campaign in 2017 so badly, and the Commons was so pro-EU that walking away was never a credible threat.
Now we are where we are, and each of the three main options is a different variety of difficult.
Raab is much smarter than Boris and in my view gets unfair stick for his Dover remark.
However, he was a Minister for five minutes before resigning in a fit of pique. He’s not ready for the big job.
A complete nobody who does not even know Dover is a port, makes him PM material for Tories. What a bunch of losers trotting round the ring. You could walk into the street in any town and pick better candidates in 5 minutes.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @FF43 said: > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise. > > > > > > This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get. > > > > -------------------- > > > > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't. > > > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium. > > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke.
Why does everything have to be so black and white! Of course we have influence, on soft power rankings we are nearly always in the global top five. Within the EU we have less influence than France and Germany which is perhaps unfair and perhaps a reflection of history, but more influence than everyone else, and clearly more than most of the much smaller nations within it. Influence does not mean we can decide everything in our favour!
> @noneoftheabove said: > > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else? > > > > > > Maybe Dominic Grieve, Justine Greening ,Philip Lee, Rory Stewart? > > > > These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time > > > > Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey > > > > Add in > > > > Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote. > > > > Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary. > > > > Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal. > > Just 5 minutes googling for some quotes on those at the top of the list: > > Bebb - "I think the prime minister is clearly in danger of allowing people to claim that she is putting party before country.I think that is truly concerning for somebody such as myself." > > Mr Benyon has previously backed a deal and been opposed to a no deal Brexit said: "I think no deal would be different from what most people expect but it would still be a very bad situation indeed." > > Brine - "The idea of some sort of clean break, that we would walk away with nothing else to do with each other like a couple with no children, is utter nonsense." > > Burt - It was very late on Monday evening that he made up his mind. Knowing some of his colleagues were advocating a no deal scenario, he felt compelled to act. “It’s necessary to demonstrate that some of us feel so strongly about this that we would put as much on the line as they’ve been prepared to put on the line in order to make sure that doesn’t happen,” he explains. > > The idea that all of these are folding is not at all reflected by events.
The question you have to ask is how many of them are willing to vote for the end of their political careers.
Even though I disagree with them I would like to think they would have the courage of their convictions to accept they are finished in Parliament as the price for stopping No Deal but they are politicians after all and I have severe doubts many of them would be willing to make that choice when it comes to the crunch.
> @JackW said: > BBC Marr - Decent calm interview from Rabb with the big elephant in the studio - His No Deal WTO has no majority in HoC. > > Do the math Dominic.
May really stuffed up with her failed early election.
If the HoC won't implement our governments program then the solution is clear: new government or new HoC.
Last time was a farce as there were no "saboteurs" but this time there are and Corbyn should be beatable. Let alone the fact it will give many betting opportunities for this site, an election if the HoC doesn't have the numbers is reasonable!
> @Barnesian said: > > @Barnesian said: > > > > @Barnesian said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @TOPPING said: > > > > > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support. > > > > > > > > > > > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour. > > > > > > > > > > > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party. > > > > > > > > > > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2 > > > > > > > > They don't need to. They simply VONC the members' choice. > > > > > > I wonder what the Betfair rules are on next PM.* Are they next PM as soon as the Tory members' choice is announced or do they need the confidence of the House? > > > > > > Mrs May will still be PM on the announcement and could intervene by not recommending the winner to the Queen (as I think is the requirement) until the appointment is confirmed by the House. > > > > > > * The Betfair rules are "This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom." So it does requires the Queen's permission based on the recommendation of the outgoing PM. > > > > The Queen does not have to ask for such advice from the departing PM - nor would she be pbliged to accept it if given. She will have her own constitutional advisers. In January 1957 Eden did not recommend a successor. > > ************************************************************************** > So it's not the Tory membership, nor MPs in Parliament who chose the next PM - it's the Queen. Fingers crossed for her longevity - otherwise it is Charles who determines our future.
Only in circumstances where there is serious doubt as to whether the recommended successor can command a majority in the Commons.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @FF43 said: > > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > > > The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise. > > > > > > > > This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get. > > > > > > -------------------- > > > > > > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't. > > > > > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium. > > > > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke. > > Why does everything have to be so black and white! Of course we have influence, on soft power rankings we are nearly always in the global top five. Within the EU we have less influence than France and Germany which is perhaps unfair and perhaps a reflection of history, but more influence than everyone else, and clearly more than most of the much smaller nations within it. Influence does not mean we can decide everything in our favour!
We have soft power influence around the world whether we are inside or outside the EU. But being inside the EU we have far less because many of the tools of soft power are controlled by the EU rather than by ourselves.
> > > > > > These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time > > > > > > Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey > > > > > > Add in > > > > > > Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote. > > > > > > Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary. > > > > > > Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal. > > > > Just 5 minutes googling for some quotes on those at the top of the list: > > > > Bebb - "I think the prime minister is clearly in danger of allowing people to claim that she is putting party before country.I think that is truly concerning for somebody such as myself." > > > > Mr Benyon has previously backed a deal and been opposed to a no deal Brexit said: "I think no deal would be different from what most people expect but it would still be a very bad situation indeed." > > > > Brine - "The idea of some sort of clean break, that we would walk away with nothing else to do with each other like a couple with no children, is utter nonsense." > > > > Burt - It was very late on Monday evening that he made up his mind. Knowing some of his colleagues were advocating a no deal scenario, he felt compelled to act. “It’s necessary to demonstrate that some of us feel so strongly about this that we would put as much on the line as they’ve been prepared to put on the line in order to make sure that doesn’t happen,” he explains. > > > > The idea that all of these are folding is not at all reflected by events. > > The question you have to ask is how many of them are willing to vote for the end of their political careers. > > Even though I disagree with them I would like to think they would have the courage of their convictions to accept they are finished in Parliament as the price for stopping No Deal but they are politicians after all and I have severe doubts many of them would be willing to make that choice when it comes to the crunch.
What is the government majority at the moment? The last confidence vote was won by 19 votes so needs around 10 switchers.
> > Boris Johnson seeking a quickie divorce from his long suffering wife to get his mistress ensconced in Downing Street. He must think he has the leadership in the bag.
Theresa May is already beginning to look rather good in retrospect, isn't she?
Not really no, the rest being shit doesn’t make her any better.
It's not that - several of them are definitely better-suited to be PM than her - but the fact that the contest is very rapidly, within the first weekend, laying bare the incontrovertible truth that there is no better answer than what she was trying to do.
> > > The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise.
> > >
> > > This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get.
> >
> > --------------------
> >
> > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't.
> >
> > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium.
>
> LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke.
Why does everything have to be so black and white! Of course we have influence, on soft power rankings we are nearly always in the global top five. Within the EU we have less influence than France and Germany which is perhaps unfair and perhaps a reflection of history, but more influence than everyone else, and clearly more than most of the much smaller nations within it. Influence does not mean we can decide everything in our favour!
Theresa used all that influence to get us a great deal right enough. What planet are you on , the EU just handed us a shit sandwich and yet you still think UK has any influence , soft hard or runny , at all.
> @IanB2 said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @FF43 said: > > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > > > The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise. > > > > > > > > This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get. > > > > > > -------------------- > > > > > > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't. > > > > > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium. > > > > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke. > > You reveal your lack of understanding there. Regaining our credibility and influence from here might however be more of a challenge.
Um no. I certainly understand our lack of power and influence both inside and outside the EU as long as we remained a member. It is you who seem to have these misconceptions about what influence we actually had.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @FF43 said: > > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > > > The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise. > > > > > > > > This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get. > > > > > > -------------------- > > > > > > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't. > > > > > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium. > > > > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke. > > Why does everything have to be so black and white! Of course we have influence, on soft power rankings we are nearly always in the global top five. Within the EU we have less influence than France and Germany which is perhaps unfair and perhaps a reflection of history, but more influence than everyone else, and clearly more than most of the much smaller nations within it. Influence does not mean we can decide everything in our favour!
Influence is only useful if you are prepared to say No.
And therein lies the problem.
The strategy was always to say Yes - sometimes willingly, sometimes after fake posturing, sometimes in the mistaken belief that it was earning future goodwill.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke. > > Why does everything have to be so black and white! Of course we have influence, on soft power rankings we are nearly always in the global top five. Within the EU we have less influence than France and Germany which is perhaps unfair and perhaps a reflection of history, but more influence than everyone else, and clearly more than most of the much smaller nations within it. Influence does not mean we can decide everything in our favour!
> @Sandpit said: > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > > Mr. Sandpit, yeah, odds too short to tempt on no safety car. > > > > > > Be glad when we can move on from Monaco. Canada's next. A circuit that's fast and has overtaking. Gosh. > > > > It's just started raining if that helps. > > Whereabouts? The Porsche race is just finishing and there’s no obvious rain on the screen - but there’s definitely a good chance of some in the next few hours.
Cap Ferrat. It's been on off all morning. Only slight at the moment. It could go either way
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @NickPalmer said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum > > > > > > > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet > > > > > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else? > > > > Maybe Dominic Grieve, Justine Greening ,Philip Lee, Rory Stewart? > > These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time > > Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey > > Add in > > Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote. > > Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary. > > Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal.
Nick Boles has already left the Tory ranks - and Guto Bebb has refused to confirm he would vote against a VNOC.
BBC Marr - Decent calm interview from Rabb with the big elephant in the studio - His No Deal WTO has no majority in HoC.
Do the math Dominic.
The only question that matters is how any of the charlatans standing for Tory leader will actually do the things they say they will, when they are a minority government.
> @williamglenn said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke. > > > > Why does everything have to be so black and white! Of course we have influence, on soft power rankings we are nearly always in the global top five. Within the EU we have less influence than France and Germany which is perhaps unfair and perhaps a reflection of history, but more influence than everyone else, and clearly more than most of the much smaller nations within it. Influence does not mean we can decide everything in our favour! > > ----------- > > Richard means "we" Eurosceptics, not "we" Brits.
Nope I mean Britain as an existing country. Something you continually tell us you don't believe in either as a single entity or in its constituent parts.
> > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't. > > > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium.
----- LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke.
==============
If we end up following the rules, which we will do because they are useful to us, it should go without saying that we have more influence if we show up to the meetings where the decisions are being made. And people pay more heed to your interests when making those tricky consensus decisions if you are part of that consensus, compared with if you are not.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > When did Dr Liam Fox become the voice of sense in the Tory Party? He is talking sense Pienaar. > > I need a lie down. > > He's been talking sense for quite a while. I agree it's hard to get one's head round this.
As top deal negotiator (failed) Liam Fox is the minister who has been most in touch with the realities (and realpolitik) of trade and international relations. He must have learned something.
> @justin124 said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > > @NickPalmer said: > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum > > > > > > > > > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet > > > > > > > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else? > > > > > > Maybe Dominic Grieve, Justine Greening ,Philip Lee, Rory Stewart? > > > > These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time > > > > Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey > > > > Add in > > > > Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote. > > > > Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary. > > > > Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal. > > Nick Boles has already left the Tory ranks - and Guto Bebb has refused to confirm he would vote against a VNOC.
Then they'll cause a general election where their choices will be to stand down or help Corbyn become PM by running as an independent.
> @FF43 said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @FF43 said: > > > > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't. > > > > > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium. > > ----- > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke. > > ============== > > If we end up following the rules, which we will do because they are useful to us, it should go without saying that we have more influence if we show up to the meetings where the decisions are being made. And people pay more heed to your interests when making those tricky consensus decisions if you are part of that consensus, compared with if you are not. >
So the way to have influence is to agree with everything that the other side wants? Well that is certainly a novel view.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @FF43 said: > > > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > > > > > The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise. > > > > > > > > > > This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get. > > > > > > > > -------------------- > > > > > > > > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't. > > > > > > > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium. > > > > > > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke. > > > > You reveal your lack of understanding there. Regaining our credibility and influence from here might however be more of a challenge. > > Um no. I certainly understand our lack of power and influence both inside and outside the EU as long as we remained a member. It is you who seem to have these misconceptions about what influence we actually had.
Which country pushed hardest for the single market? Which country pushed hardest for Eastern expansion?
Of course we have significant influence. You may not like how we have used it, or that as 13% of the EU population, the rest of EU rightly and obviously have more influence combined than we do.
Raab's weakness is that despite his media chops, back in the real world his tenure as Brexit minister lasted about ten minutes (well, four months). That said, it is early days and he might be the grey man on the Brexit wing who comes through the middle if Gove and Boris cut each other's throats again. Leadsom will be hoping it will be her, of course.
I see Hammond is attempting to inject some rational thinking into the Tory race.
Good luck with that one mate!
I'm radidly coming round to the view that an actual split of the party is the only way out. You simply can't deal with MPs and members who live in a fantasy world, full of alternative facts and doublethink.
> @justin124 said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > > @NickPalmer said: > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum > > > > > > > > > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet > > > > > > > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else? > > > > > > Maybe Dominic Grieve, Justine Greening ,Philip Lee, Rory Stewart? > > > > These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time > > > > Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey > > > > Add in > > > > Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote. > > > > Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary. > > > > Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal. > > Nick Boles has already left the Tory ranks - and Guto Bebb has refused to confirm he would vote against a VNOC.
Few of them will confirm voting against on a VONC until necessary as it is an obvious tactical mistake. If they confirm that they would vote for the govt in a VONC they can come off the list. Hammond on Marr refusing to say he would as I type, which suggests to me he would vote against. (Boles would have voted for May in last VONC so counts as a switcher).
> @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > > > > > These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time > > > > > > > > Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey > > > > > > > > Add in > > > > > > > > Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote. > > > > > > > > Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary. > > > > > > > > Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal. > > > > > > Just 5 minutes googling for some quotes on those at the top of the list: > > > > > > Bebb - "I think the prime minister is clearly in danger of allowing people to claim that she is putting party before country.I think that is truly concerning for somebody such as myself." > > > > > > Mr Benyon has previously backed a deal and been opposed to a no deal Brexit said: "I think no deal would be different from what most people expect but it would still be a very bad situation indeed." > > > > > > Brine - "The idea of some sort of clean break, that we would walk away with nothing else to do with each other like a couple with no children, is utter nonsense." > > > > > > Burt - It was very late on Monday evening that he made up his mind. Knowing some of his colleagues were advocating a no deal scenario, he felt compelled to act. “It’s necessary to demonstrate that some of us feel so strongly about this that we would put as much on the line as they’ve been prepared to put on the line in order to make sure that doesn’t happen,” he explains. > > > > > > The idea that all of these are folding is not at all reflected by events. > > > > The question you have to ask is how many of them are willing to vote for the end of their political careers. > > > > Even though I disagree with them I would like to think they would have the courage of their convictions to accept they are finished in Parliament as the price for stopping No Deal but they are politicians after all and I have severe doubts many of them would be willing to make that choice when it comes to the crunch. > > What is the government majority at the moment? The last confidence vote was won by 19 votes so needs around 10 switchers.
Effectively it is 5 at present - falling to 4 if they fail to win Peterborough next week. If we end up with a by election at Brecon & Radnor, there must be a good chance of a LibDem gain there which would cut the majority to 2.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @FF43 said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @FF43 said: > > > > > > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't. > > > > > > > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium. > > > > ----- > > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke. > > > > ============== > > > > If we end up following the rules, which we will do because they are useful to us, it should go without saying that we have more influence if we show up to the meetings where the decisions are being made. And people pay more heed to your interests when making those tricky consensus decisions if you are part of that consensus, compared with if you are not. > > > > So the way to have influence is to agree with everything that the other side wants? Well that is certainly a novel view. >
It's not the "other side". It's a consortium of member states with competing as well as shared interests.
> @glw said: > BBC Marr - Decent calm interview from Rabb with the big elephant in the studio - His No Deal WTO has no majority in HoC. > > > > Do the math Dominic. > > The only question that matters is how any of the charlatans standing for Tory leader will actually do the things they say they will, when they are a minority government.
They will have to go to the country to get a No Deal Brexit - and it will be a country in which most are opposed to such an outcome, so it will be a case of hoping that the Brexit party vote splits for the Tories in a way that enables a majority. It's hard to see how that happens, though, given that the only Tory majority since 1992 was achieved by squeezing the LibDem vote.
It amuses me greatly after a break from this site that people who were cheering on May's deal despite it not having the numbers are haughtily tut tutting that alternatives like "revised deal or no deal" or "direct no deal" don't have the numbers. So what? Seriously literally nothing has the numbers that's why we are in this mess.
The only way to make up the numbers is to get a new option that's not on the table at the moment, or for someone to blink that hasn't yet, or to have an election.
At least the candidates this time are saying what they stand for and seeking a mandate (from the MPs in the governing party and its members) rather than issuing platitudes like Brexit means Brexit.
It's starting to look unlikely> @justin124 said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > > @NickPalmer said: > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum > > > > > > > > > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet > > > > > > > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else? > > > > > > Maybe Dominic Grieve, Justine Greening ,Philip Lee, Rory Stewart? > > > > These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time > > > > Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey > > > > Add in > > > > Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote. > > > > Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary. > > > > Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal. > > Nick Boles has already left the Tory ranks - and Guto Bebb has refused to confirm he would vote against a VNOC.
So a no-dealer is screwed. But wouldn't that suggest if they did get chosen they would immediately lose a VONC?
> @matt said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @old_labour said: > > > > Boris Johnson seeking a quickie divorce from his long suffering wife to get his mistress ensconced in Downing Street. He must think he has the leadership in the bag. > > > > > > > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7071209/Boris-Johnson-hopes-finalise-split-estranged-wife-six-weeks.html > > > > > > Her Bozzie Bear. > > > > > > Should we open a bet on how long the relationship will last? > > > > I am not sure the country is ready for a PM shacked up at No 10. That probably explains Ed Milliband's decision to get married whilst Labour leader. > > This opinion brought as a hot take from the 1950s.
Do you think that Thatcher would have become Tory leader had she been 'living in sin' with Denis? Or indeed Theresa May?
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > Hammond on Marr > > 39 billion is over 60 years. It is not a pot of money that can be spent > > He is so right
Isnt it 20 billion over 60 years and 20 billion over 2 years transition?
The arguments over the transition money is bizarre, it seems to be a non issue us paying the same amounts during the extension or the a50 period, but pay it during a transition and we are apparently getting shafted.
> > Mr. Sandpit, yeah, odds too short to tempt on no safety car.
>
> >
>
> > Be glad when we can move on from Monaco. Canada's next. A circuit that's fast and has overtaking. Gosh.
>
>
>
> It's just started raining if that helps.
>
> Whereabouts? The Porsche race is just finishing and there’s no obvious rain on the screen - but there’s definitely a good chance of some in the next few hours.
Cap Ferrat. It's been on off all morning. Only slight at the moment. It could go either way
> @Recidivist said: > I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers. > > I was just about to post the same thing. > > She’s available at 80/1 for next PM and 90/1 for next Conservative leader. > > That’s seriously good value. I could see her making it into the final two. > > With such a big field I'd say literally anybody could win. I am just doing spreadsheet to work out what the odds of backing every single candidate is if you assume everyone has the same chance.
Johnson is in the lead with Raab two lengths behind and improving on Johnson. Tucked in behind Raab, in a good position on his left, is Gove. Gove is riding an unlikely looking horse but definitely in with a chance. A few lengths back is Hunt and behind Hunt are Leadsom and Stewart neck and neck. Stewart, viewed as a no-hoper, is running a good race so far. The rest of the pack are trailing these six leaders but it's a long race and anything can happen. Lots of fences ahead.
> @another_richard said: > > @dixiedean said: > > When did Dr Liam Fox become the voice of sense in the Tory Party? He is talking sense Pienaar. > > I need a lie down. > > Has he mentioned how many trade deals he has ready to sign ?
Of course not. But unlike the most of the declared runners and riders he did make clear the stark fact that there are 3 options only. No Deal, Revoke, or a WA, which will be almost identical to the present one. And that the first 2 will have profound negative political implications for his Party and the country. Which counts as the wisdom of Solomon compared to what we've been hearing from a string of wannabe PMs.
> @glw said: > BBC Marr - Decent calm interview from Rabb with the big elephant in the studio - His No Deal WTO has no majority in HoC. > > > > Do the math Dominic. > > The only question that matters is how any of the charlatans standing for Tory leader will actually do the things they say they will, when they are a minority government.
Yes, that is the key. Whoever is elected leader, the parliamentary arithmetic will not change for the better and might get a lot worse if the new PM contrives to lose the DUP's confidence and supply agreement. Whatever the candidates promise, they need to be asked how they will get it through the Commons.
The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
They never adduce any evidence.
Go on then , give us details of the influence we have ever wielded, I dare you.
The creation of the single market and the expansion into Eastern Europe were policies championed by the UK to name but two where our influence was key.
> @Roger said: > It's starting to look unlikely> @justin124 said: > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > @justin124 said: > > > > > @NickPalmer said: > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > > > > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum > > > > > > > > > > > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet > > > > > > > > > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else? > > > > > > > > Maybe Dominic Grieve, Justine Greening ,Philip Lee, Rory Stewart? > > > > > > These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time > > > > > > Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey > > > > > > Add in > > > > > > Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote. > > > > > > Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary. > > > > > > Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal. > > > > Nick Boles has already left the Tory ranks - and Guto Bebb has refused to confirm he would vote against a VNOC. > > So a no-dealer is screwed. But wouldn't that suggest if they did get chosen they would immediately lose a VONC?
There will be a difference between a pure no deal (McVey) and the renegotiate followed by no deal (Raab). I think any re-negotiater would get given time to chase their unicorns whereas a pure no dealer would not survive a week.
> @Gardenwalker said: > The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth. > > They never adduce any evidence.
So give us the evidence of all this influence Britain has.
You can start with what we got in return for Blair giving up half the Rebate and end with what Cameron got in his Renegotiation.
Or to make it easy how about giving the number of times Britain was outvoted in the EU and comparing it to the number of times France and Germany were outvoted.
Comments
> > @Black_Rook said:
>
> > The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise.
> >
> > This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get.
>
> --------------------
>
> I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't.
>
> It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium.
LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke.
> https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1132580310045134849
>
>
>
> LOL.
>
> Tomorrow’s politics studies course in how not to launch a new party.
Indeed. Listening back to it, she is effectively accepting that CUK is a lifeboat or shell party, waiting for an influx of defecting Tory and/or Labour MPs and then coming to terms with the LibDems to form a new broader party. Its a not impossible scenario, particularly if a no deal exit starts to loom.
> https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1132581751115722752
Serious question.
Has Raab actually promised a 5p IT cut ?
> > @Cyclefree said:
> >
> > Does a “clean break” mean that we don’t pay the EU what we legally owe? Because that takes us straight to legal action and problems in the bond market (our deficit and debt say hello). That’s just one of the many questions which need answering.
> >
> -------
>
> Raab just said he'd be happy to arbitrate it and thinks we'd get at least £25bn back.
>
>
So he expects us to get back more than we pay in?
As a complete aside, when is the EU budget next up for negotiation again? My understanding is that it is one of the very few areas still needing unanimity in which case a recalcitrant UK could make a real mess of things for the rest of the EU.
> https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1132581751115722752
Like there's such an admin saving just sitting there after ten years of austerity.
> >
> > Maybe Dominic Grieve, Justine Greening ,Philip Lee, Rory Stewart?
>
> These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time
>
> Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey
>
> Add in
>
> Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote.
>
> Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary.
>
> Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal.
Just 5 minutes googling for some quotes on those at the top of the list:
Bebb - "I think the prime minister is clearly in danger of allowing people to claim that she is putting party before country.I think that is truly concerning for somebody such as myself."
Mr Benyon has previously backed a deal and been opposed to a no deal Brexit said: "I think no deal would be different from what most people expect but it would still be a very bad situation indeed."
Brine - "The idea of some sort of clean break, that we would walk away with nothing else to do with each other like a couple with no children, is utter nonsense."
Burt - It was very late on Monday evening that he made up his mind. Knowing some of his colleagues were advocating a no deal scenario, he felt compelled to act. “It’s necessary to demonstrate that some of us feel so strongly about this that we would put as much on the line as they’ve been prepared to put on the line in order to make sure that doesn’t happen,” he explains.
The idea that all of these are folding is not at all reflected by events.
Instead, shackling herself to the dying embers of the Chaka Ummuna Vanity Project has cost her a lot of political capital.
> > @FF43 said:
> > > @Black_Rook said:
> >
> > > The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise.
> > >
> > > This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get.
> >
> > --------------------
> >
> > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't.
> >
> > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium.
>
> LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke.
You reveal your lack of understanding there. Regaining our credibility and influence from here might however be more of a challenge.
5p tax cut
He's a a typical Tory politician who thinks we can use 19th century solutions to 21st century problems.
Tories are tax cutters? Who knew? Who knew?
Yet another mighty effup caused by the FTPA.
She's still bad. That doesn't mean things can't get worse, of course. And part of that is because May negotiated so poorly, ran her election campaign in 2017 so badly, and the Commons was so pro-EU that walking away was never a credible threat.
Now we are where we are, and each of the three main options is a different variety of difficult.
And, on that cheery note, I must be off.
> > @FF43 said:
> > > @Black_Rook said:
> >
> > > The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise.
> > >
> > > This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get.
> >
> > --------------------
> >
> > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't.
> >
> > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium.
>
> LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke.
Why does everything have to be so black and white! Of course we have influence, on soft power rankings we are nearly always in the global top five. Within the EU we have less influence than France and Germany which is perhaps unfair and perhaps a reflection of history, but more influence than everyone else, and clearly more than most of the much smaller nations within it. Influence does not mean we can decide everything in our favour!
> > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
> > >
> > > Maybe Dominic Grieve, Justine Greening ,Philip Lee, Rory Stewart?
> >
> > These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time
> >
> > Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey
> >
> > Add in
> >
> > Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote.
> >
> > Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary.
> >
> > Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal.
>
> Just 5 minutes googling for some quotes on those at the top of the list:
>
> Bebb - "I think the prime minister is clearly in danger of allowing people to claim that she is putting party before country.I think that is truly concerning for somebody such as myself."
>
> Mr Benyon has previously backed a deal and been opposed to a no deal Brexit said: "I think no deal would be different from what most people expect but it would still be a very bad situation indeed."
>
> Brine - "The idea of some sort of clean break, that we would walk away with nothing else to do with each other like a couple with no children, is utter nonsense."
>
> Burt - It was very late on Monday evening that he made up his mind. Knowing some of his colleagues were advocating a no deal scenario, he felt compelled to act. “It’s necessary to demonstrate that some of us feel so strongly about this that we would put as much on the line as they’ve been prepared to put on the line in order to make sure that doesn’t happen,” he explains.
>
> The idea that all of these are folding is not at all reflected by events.
The question you have to ask is how many of them are willing to vote for the end of their political careers.
Even though I disagree with them I would like to think they would have the courage of their convictions to accept they are finished in Parliament as the price for stopping No Deal but they are politicians after all and I have severe doubts many of them would be willing to make that choice when it comes to the crunch.
Former journalist Craig Hoy won a by-election for the Haddington and Lammermuir ward in a vote which saw Labour fall into third place.
https://www.eastlothiancourier.com/news/17631609.conservative-candidate-wins-haddington-and-lammemuir-by-election/
> BBC Marr - Decent calm interview from Rabb with the big elephant in the studio - His No Deal WTO has no majority in HoC.
>
> Do the math Dominic.
May really stuffed up with her failed early election.
If the HoC won't implement our governments program then the solution is clear: new government or new HoC.
Last time was a farce as there were no "saboteurs" but this time there are and Corbyn should be beatable. Let alone the fact it will give many betting opportunities for this site, an election if the HoC doesn't have the numbers is reasonable!
> > @Barnesian said:
>
> > > @Barnesian said:
>
> > > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > > > @TOPPING said:
>
> > > > > Nigel Farage can say what he wants but both Boris and Raab as well as Leadsom and McVey are all far better placed to win back voters from the Brexit Party as they are committed to take Britain out of the EU 'with or without a Deal' which other candidates are not and it is the fact we are still in the EU when we were supposed to have left in March which is the principle reason for the rise in Brexit Party support.
>
> > > > >
>
> > > > > Indeed Comres recently had Brexit Party support collapsing to just 10% under a Boris Tory leadership compared to 20% currently with the Tories moving from trailing Labour by 8% to tied with Labour.
>
> > > > >
>
> > > > > As we heard yesterday from Stewart and Rudd a "with or without a deal" approach loses them much if not a majority of the parliamentary party.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > No candidate will win the membership without supporting leaving 'with or without a Deal' or win back voters from the Brexit Party and there are not enough Remainer Tory MPs to put 2 Remainers in the final 2
>
> > >
>
> > > They don't need to. They simply VONC the members' choice.
>
> >
>
> > I wonder what the Betfair rules are on next PM.* Are they next PM as soon as the Tory members' choice is announced or do they need the confidence of the House?
>
> >
>
> > Mrs May will still be PM on the announcement and could intervene by not recommending the winner to the Queen (as I think is the requirement) until the appointment is confirmed by the House.
>
> >
>
> > * The Betfair rules are "This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom." So it does requires the Queen's permission based on the recommendation of the outgoing PM.
>
>
>
> The Queen does not have to ask for such advice from the departing PM - nor would she be pbliged to accept it if given. She will have her own constitutional advisers. In January 1957 Eden did not recommend a successor.
>
> **************************************************************************
> So it's not the Tory membership, nor MPs in Parliament who chose the next PM - it's the Queen. Fingers crossed for her longevity - otherwise it is Charles who determines our future.
Only in circumstances where there is serious doubt as to whether the recommended successor can command a majority in the Commons.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @FF43 said:
> > > > @Black_Rook said:
> > >
> > > > The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise.
> > > >
> > > > This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get.
> > >
> > > --------------------
> > >
> > > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't.
> > >
> > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium.
> >
> > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke.
>
> Why does everything have to be so black and white! Of course we have influence, on soft power rankings we are nearly always in the global top five. Within the EU we have less influence than France and Germany which is perhaps unfair and perhaps a reflection of history, but more influence than everyone else, and clearly more than most of the much smaller nations within it. Influence does not mean we can decide everything in our favour!
We have soft power influence around the world whether we are inside or outside the EU. But being inside the EU we have far less because many of the tools of soft power are controlled by the EU rather than by ourselves.
> > > These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time
> > >
> > > Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey
> > >
> > > Add in
> > >
> > > Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote.
> > >
> > > Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary.
> > >
> > > Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal.
> >
> > Just 5 minutes googling for some quotes on those at the top of the list:
> >
> > Bebb - "I think the prime minister is clearly in danger of allowing people to claim that she is putting party before country.I think that is truly concerning for somebody such as myself."
> >
> > Mr Benyon has previously backed a deal and been opposed to a no deal Brexit said: "I think no deal would be different from what most people expect but it would still be a very bad situation indeed."
> >
> > Brine - "The idea of some sort of clean break, that we would walk away with nothing else to do with each other like a couple with no children, is utter nonsense."
> >
> > Burt - It was very late on Monday evening that he made up his mind. Knowing some of his colleagues were advocating a no deal scenario, he felt compelled to act. “It’s necessary to demonstrate that some of us feel so strongly about this that we would put as much on the line as they’ve been prepared to put on the line in order to make sure that doesn’t happen,” he explains.
> >
> > The idea that all of these are folding is not at all reflected by events.
>
> The question you have to ask is how many of them are willing to vote for the end of their political careers.
>
> Even though I disagree with them I would like to think they would have the courage of their convictions to accept they are finished in Parliament as the price for stopping No Deal but they are politicians after all and I have severe doubts many of them would be willing to make that choice when it comes to the crunch.
What is the government majority at the moment? The last confidence vote was won by 19 votes so needs around 10 switchers.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @FF43 said:
> > > > @Black_Rook said:
> > >
> > > > The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise.
> > > >
> > > > This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get.
> > >
> > > --------------------
> > >
> > > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't.
> > >
> > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium.
> >
> > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke.
>
> You reveal your lack of understanding there. Regaining our credibility and influence from here might however be more of a challenge.
Um no. I certainly understand our lack of power and influence both inside and outside the EU as long as we remained a member. It is you who seem to have these misconceptions about what influence we actually had.
I need a lie down.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @FF43 said:
> > > > @Black_Rook said:
> > >
> > > > The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise.
> > > >
> > > > This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get.
> > >
> > > --------------------
> > >
> > > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't.
> > >
> > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium.
> >
> > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke.
>
> Why does everything have to be so black and white! Of course we have influence, on soft power rankings we are nearly always in the global top five. Within the EU we have less influence than France and Germany which is perhaps unfair and perhaps a reflection of history, but more influence than everyone else, and clearly more than most of the much smaller nations within it. Influence does not mean we can decide everything in our favour!
Influence is only useful if you are prepared to say No.
And therein lies the problem.
The strategy was always to say Yes - sometimes willingly, sometimes after fake posturing, sometimes in the mistaken belief that it was earning future goodwill.
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1132584778950238208
I said Raab looks well placed ages ago.
> When did Dr Liam Fox become the voice of sense in the Tory Party? He is talking sense Pienaar.
> I need a lie down.
Has he mentioned how many trade deals he has ready to sign ?
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> >
> > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke.
>
> Why does everything have to be so black and white! Of course we have influence, on soft power rankings we are nearly always in the global top five. Within the EU we have less influence than France and Germany which is perhaps unfair and perhaps a reflection of history, but more influence than everyone else, and clearly more than most of the much smaller nations within it. Influence does not mean we can decide everything in our favour!
-----------
Richard means "we" Eurosceptics, not "we" Brits.
> > @Morris_Dancer said:
>
> > Mr. Sandpit, yeah, odds too short to tempt on no safety car.
>
> >
>
> > Be glad when we can move on from Monaco. Canada's next. A circuit that's fast and has overtaking. Gosh.
>
>
>
> It's just started raining if that helps.
>
> Whereabouts? The Porsche race is just finishing and there’s no obvious rain on the screen - but there’s definitely a good chance of some in the next few hours.
Cap Ferrat. It's been on off all morning. Only slight at the moment. It could go either way
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @NickPalmer said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > >
> > > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum
> > > >
> > > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet
> > >
> > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
> >
> > Maybe Dominic Grieve, Justine Greening ,Philip Lee, Rory Stewart?
>
> These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time
>
> Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey
>
> Add in
>
> Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote.
>
> Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary.
>
> Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal.
Nick Boles has already left the Tory ranks - and Guto Bebb has refused to confirm he would vote against a VNOC.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1132580310045134849
>
> Inevitable and a promising leader for the Lib Dems
She needs to jump before June 7th.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > >
> > > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke.
> >
> > Why does everything have to be so black and white! Of course we have influence, on soft power rankings we are nearly always in the global top five. Within the EU we have less influence than France and Germany which is perhaps unfair and perhaps a reflection of history, but more influence than everyone else, and clearly more than most of the much smaller nations within it. Influence does not mean we can decide everything in our favour!
>
> -----------
>
> Richard means "we" Eurosceptics, not "we" Brits.
Nope I mean Britain as an existing country. Something you continually tell us you don't believe in either as a single entity or in its constituent parts.
> > @FF43 said:
> > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't.
> >
> > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium.
-----
LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke.
==============
If we end up following the rules, which we will do because they are useful to us, it should go without saying that we have more influence if we show up to the meetings where the decisions are being made. And people pay more heed to your interests when making those tricky consensus decisions if you are part of that consensus, compared with if you are not.
> When did Dr Liam Fox become the voice of sense in the Tory Party? He is talking sense Pienaar.
>
> I need a lie down.
>
> He's been talking sense for quite a while. I agree it's hard to get one's head round this.
As top deal negotiator (failed) Liam Fox is the minister who has been most in touch with the realities (and realpolitik) of trade and international relations. He must have learned something.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > > @NickPalmer said:
> > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > >
> > > > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum
> > > > >
> > > > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet
> > > >
> > > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
> > >
> > > Maybe Dominic Grieve, Justine Greening ,Philip Lee, Rory Stewart?
> >
> > These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time
> >
> > Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey
> >
> > Add in
> >
> > Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote.
> >
> > Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary.
> >
> > Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal.
>
> Nick Boles has already left the Tory ranks - and Guto Bebb has refused to confirm he would vote against a VNOC.
Then they'll cause a general election where their choices will be to stand down or help Corbyn become PM by running as an independent.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @FF43 said:
>
> > > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't.
> > >
> > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium.
>
> -----
> LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke.
>
> ==============
>
> If we end up following the rules, which we will do because they are useful to us, it should go without saying that we have more influence if we show up to the meetings where the decisions are being made. And people pay more heed to your interests when making those tricky consensus decisions if you are part of that consensus, compared with if you are not.
>
So the way to have influence is to agree with everything that the other side wants? Well that is certainly a novel view.
39 billion is over 60 years. It is not a pot of money that can be spent
He is so right
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @FF43 said:
> > > > > @Black_Rook said:
> > > >
> > > > > The European Union has made it perfectly clear that "sensible and friendly approach" = "do as you are told." The only options available are those that have been available from the outset: close integration on the EU's own terms, or becoming a third party. The rest is noise.
> > > > >
> > > > > This whole episode is going to end up as a fight to the death between No Deal and staying in, most likely through Revocation. In either event, it's likely to reshape the political system along Leave/Remain lines. The best that can therefore be hoped for is that one or the other option wins out and is implemented sooner rather than later. Because the longer this drags on for, the worse the polarisation is going to get.
> > > >
> > > > --------------------
> > > >
> > > > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't.
> > > >
> > > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium.
> > >
> > > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke.
> >
> > You reveal your lack of understanding there. Regaining our credibility and influence from here might however be more of a challenge.
>
> Um no. I certainly understand our lack of power and influence both inside and outside the EU as long as we remained a member. It is you who seem to have these misconceptions about what influence we actually had.
Which country pushed hardest for the single market?
Which country pushed hardest for Eastern expansion?
Of course we have significant influence. You may not like how we have used it, or that as 13% of the EU population, the rest of EU rightly and obviously have more influence combined than we do.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1132584778950238208
>
> I said Raab looks well placed ages ago.
Raab's weakness is that despite his media chops, back in the real world his tenure as Brexit minister lasted about ten minutes (well, four months). That said, it is early days and he might be the grey man on the Brexit wing who comes through the middle if Gove and Boris cut each other's throats again. Leadsom will be hoping it will be her, of course.
https://twitter.com/Melissa_Benn/status/1132536843101179907
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > > @NickPalmer said:
> > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > >
> > > > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum
> > > > >
> > > > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet
> > > >
> > > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
> > >
> > > Maybe Dominic Grieve, Justine Greening ,Philip Lee, Rory Stewart?
> >
> > These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time
> >
> > Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey
> >
> > Add in
> >
> > Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote.
> >
> > Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary.
> >
> > Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal.
>
> Nick Boles has already left the Tory ranks - and Guto Bebb has refused to confirm he would vote against a VNOC.
Few of them will confirm voting against on a VONC until necessary as it is an obvious tactical mistake. If they confirm that they would vote for the govt in a VONC they can come off the list. Hammond on Marr refusing to say he would as I type, which suggests to me he would vote against. (Boles would have voted for May in last VONC so counts as a switcher).
>
> > > >
> > > > These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time
> > > >
> > > > Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey
> > > >
> > > > Add in
> > > >
> > > > Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote.
> > > >
> > > > Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary.
> > > >
> > > > Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal.
> > >
> > > Just 5 minutes googling for some quotes on those at the top of the list:
> > >
> > > Bebb - "I think the prime minister is clearly in danger of allowing people to claim that she is putting party before country.I think that is truly concerning for somebody such as myself."
> > >
> > > Mr Benyon has previously backed a deal and been opposed to a no deal Brexit said: "I think no deal would be different from what most people expect but it would still be a very bad situation indeed."
> > >
> > > Brine - "The idea of some sort of clean break, that we would walk away with nothing else to do with each other like a couple with no children, is utter nonsense."
> > >
> > > Burt - It was very late on Monday evening that he made up his mind. Knowing some of his colleagues were advocating a no deal scenario, he felt compelled to act. “It’s necessary to demonstrate that some of us feel so strongly about this that we would put as much on the line as they’ve been prepared to put on the line in order to make sure that doesn’t happen,” he explains.
> > >
> > > The idea that all of these are folding is not at all reflected by events.
> >
> > The question you have to ask is how many of them are willing to vote for the end of their political careers.
> >
> > Even though I disagree with them I would like to think they would have the courage of their convictions to accept they are finished in Parliament as the price for stopping No Deal but they are politicians after all and I have severe doubts many of them would be willing to make that choice when it comes to the crunch.
>
> What is the government majority at the moment? The last confidence vote was won by 19 votes so needs around 10 switchers.
Effectively it is 5 at present - falling to 4 if they fail to win Peterborough next week. If we end up with a by election at Brecon & Radnor, there must be a good chance of a LibDem gain there which would cut the majority to 2.
> > @FF43 said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @FF43 said:
> >
> > > > I'm pretty sure we will end up doing what we are told, either in or out of the EU. If we are in, we have influence; out we don't.
> > > >
> > > > It's not necessarily unreasonableness on the part of the EU. We want the stuff that comes from being part of the consortium.
> >
> > -----
> > LOL. This myth about us having influence inside the EU. I am amazed anyone still tries to push that line. It is a complete joke.
> >
> > ==============
> >
> > If we end up following the rules, which we will do because they are useful to us, it should go without saying that we have more influence if we show up to the meetings where the decisions are being made. And people pay more heed to your interests when making those tricky consensus decisions if you are part of that consensus, compared with if you are not.
> >
>
> So the way to have influence is to agree with everything that the other side wants? Well that is certainly a novel view.
>
It's not the "other side". It's a consortium of member states with competing as well as shared interests.
> BBC Marr - Decent calm interview from Rabb with the big elephant in the studio - His No Deal WTO has no majority in HoC.
>
>
>
> Do the math Dominic.
>
> The only question that matters is how any of the charlatans standing for Tory leader will actually do the things they say they will, when they are a minority government.
They will have to go to the country to get a No Deal Brexit - and it will be a country in which most are opposed to such an outcome, so it will be a case of hoping that the Brexit party vote splits for the Tories in a way that enables a majority. It's hard to see how that happens, though, given that the only Tory majority since 1992 was achieved by squeezing the LibDem vote.
It amuses me greatly after a break from this site that people who were cheering on May's deal despite it not having the numbers are haughtily tut tutting that alternatives like "revised deal or no deal" or "direct no deal" don't have the numbers. So what? Seriously literally nothing has the numbers that's why we are in this mess.
The only way to make up the numbers is to get a new option that's not on the table at the moment, or for someone to blink that hasn't yet, or to have an election.
At least the candidates this time are saying what they stand for and seeking a mandate (from the MPs in the governing party and its members) rather than issuing platitudes like Brexit means Brexit.
They never adduce any evidence.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > > @NickPalmer said:
> > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > >
> > > > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum
> > > > >
> > > > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet
> > > >
> > > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
> > >
> > > Maybe Dominic Grieve, Justine Greening ,Philip Lee, Rory Stewart?
> >
> > These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time
> >
> > Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey
> >
> > Add in
> >
> > Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote.
> >
> > Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary.
> >
> > Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal.
>
> Nick Boles has already left the Tory ranks - and Guto Bebb has refused to confirm he would vote against a VNOC.
So a no-dealer is screwed. But wouldn't that suggest if they did get chosen they would immediately lose a VONC?
> > @Sean_F said:
>
> > > @old_labour said:
>
> > > Boris Johnson seeking a quickie divorce from his long suffering wife to get his mistress ensconced in Downing Street. He must think he has the leadership in the bag.
>
> > >
>
> > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7071209/Boris-Johnson-hopes-finalise-split-estranged-wife-six-weeks.html
>
> >
>
> > Her Bozzie Bear.
>
> >
>
> > Should we open a bet on how long the relationship will last?
>
>
>
> I am not sure the country is ready for a PM shacked up at No 10. That probably explains Ed Milliband's decision to get married whilst Labour leader.
>
> This opinion brought as a hot take from the 1950s.
Do you think that Thatcher would have become Tory leader had she been 'living in sin' with Denis? Or indeed Theresa May?
> Hammond on Marr
>
> 39 billion is over 60 years. It is not a pot of money that can be spent
>
> He is so right
Isnt it 20 billion over 60 years and 20 billion over 2 years transition?
The arguments over the transition money is bizarre, it seems to be a non issue us paying the same amounts during the extension or the a50 period, but pay it during a transition and we are apparently getting shafted.
> I continue to believe that Esther McVey is being seriously underestimated. She has none of the problems of her rival foaming Brexiteers.
>
> I was just about to post the same thing.
>
> She’s available at 80/1 for next PM and 90/1 for next Conservative leader.
>
> That’s seriously good value. I could see her making it into the final two.
>
> With such a big field I'd say literally anybody could win. I am just doing spreadsheet to work out what the odds of backing every single candidate is if you assume everyone has the same chance.
************************************************************************************************
It's like the Grand National.
Johnson is in the lead with Raab two lengths behind and improving on Johnson. Tucked in behind Raab, in a good position on his left, is Gove. Gove is riding an unlikely looking horse but definitely in with a chance. A few lengths back is Hunt and behind Hunt are Leadsom and Stewart neck and neck. Stewart, viewed as a no-hoper, is running a good race so far. The rest of the pack are trailing these six leaders but it's a long race and anything can happen. Lots of fences ahead.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > When did Dr Liam Fox become the voice of sense in the Tory Party? He is talking sense Pienaar.
> > I need a lie down.
>
> Has he mentioned how many trade deals he has ready to sign ?
Of course not.
But unlike the most of the declared runners and riders he did make clear the stark fact that there are 3 options only. No Deal, Revoke, or a WA, which will be almost identical to the present one. And that the first 2 will have profound negative political implications for his Party and the country.
Which counts as the wisdom of Solomon compared to what we've been hearing from a string of wannabe PMs.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1132590727907676160
> BBC Marr - Decent calm interview from Rabb with the big elephant in the studio - His No Deal WTO has no majority in HoC.
>
>
>
> Do the math Dominic.
>
> The only question that matters is how any of the charlatans standing for Tory leader will actually do the things they say they will, when they are a minority government.
Yes, that is the key. Whoever is elected leader, the parliamentary arithmetic will not change for the better and might get a lot worse if the new PM contrives to lose the DUP's confidence and supply agreement. Whatever the candidates promise, they need to be asked how they will get it through the Commons.
> Theresa May is already beginning to look rather good in retrospect, isn't she?
Is this in the same way you thought Cameron's renegotiation with the EU was rather good?
> It's starting to look unlikely> @justin124 said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > @justin124 said:
> > > > > @NickPalmer said:
> > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > >
> > > > > > Today's announcement on 5 live that 20 plus conservative mps will join a vonc on Boris or any other no deal leader shows the futility of facilitating no deal with the fall of the government and the election of a parliament that rejects brexit and will either revoke or pass a second referendum
> > > > > >
> > > > > > For the benefit of doubt my last two would be Gove v Hunt with Gove winning and Hunt in a big role in the new cabinet
> > > > >
> > > > > I agree that'd be a strong team. I'm very sceptical about those 20+ VONCing Tories, though - surely the last year has shown that nearly all the Tory Remainer rebels (obviously excluding the 3 who went to ChUK) fold when it comes to a crunch? Note Amber Rudd suddenly finding virtue in Boris, for example. Who exactly on the Tory side is going to vote for a Labour VONC in Boris or anyone else?
> > > >
> > > > Maybe Dominic Grieve, Justine Greening ,Philip Lee, Rory Stewart?
> > >
> > > These voted for Letwin amendment to effectively block no deal last time
> > >
> > > Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Steve Brine. Alastair Burt, Ken Clarke, Damian Collins, Alberto Costa, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Oliver Letwin, Paul Masterton, Andrew Mitchell, Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill, Sarah Newton, Mark Pawsey, Antoinette Sandbach, Nick Soames, Caroline Spelman, John Stevenson, Ed Vaizey
> > >
> > > Add in
> > >
> > > Rory Stewart, Hammond, Gauke and a few junior ministers from the payroll vote.
> > >
> > > Not all of those would no confidence, but quite a few would if necessary.
> > >
> > > Not 100% sure the DUP would support a govt close to delivering no deal either, although they would probably say it was because of the govt not being strong rather than because of no deal.
> >
> > Nick Boles has already left the Tory ranks - and Guto Bebb has refused to confirm he would vote against a VNOC.
>
> So a no-dealer is screwed. But wouldn't that suggest if they did get chosen they would immediately lose a VONC?
There will be a difference between a pure no deal (McVey) and the renegotiate followed by no deal (Raab). I think any re-negotiater would get given time to chase their unicorns whereas a pure no dealer would not survive a week.
> The people who claim Britain had no influence in the EU are just repeating decades of tabloid press myth.
>
> They never adduce any evidence.
So give us the evidence of all this influence Britain has.
You can start with what we got in return for Blair giving up half the Rebate and end with what Cameron got in his Renegotiation.
Or to make it easy how about giving the number of times Britain was outvoted in the EU and comparing it to the number of times France and Germany were outvoted.