> @williamglenn said: > We may have to face the reality that Remainers care more about this question than Brexiteers.
Certainly looks that way.
Polls may have overestimated Brexit Party. I now expect Lib dems and the brexit party to be much closer than the polls were showing. I doubt The Brexit Party will get over 33% now.
> @nunuone said: > > @williamglenn said: > > We may have to face the reality that Remainers care more about this question than Brexiteers. > > Certainly looks that way. > > Polls may have overestimated Brexit Party. I now expect Lib dems and the brexit party to be much closer than the polls were showing. I doubt The Brexit Party will get over 33% now.
I hope so, I've bet on them getting less than 30%.
> @williamglenn said: > > @KentRising said: > > Expect this election to feed into the revoke/second referendum momentum. > ----- > > It may also vindicate Theresa May's attempt to cling on. Parliament might be more inclined to vote through the WAB + a referendum.
She isn't going to cling on. That much is pretty clear in tonight's papers.
> @KentRising said: Expect this election to feed into the revoke/second referendum momentum.
How much of that statement is forecast and how much is hopecast. I'm not wishing to devalue your contribution but it is noticeable how many contributors lean to their preferred outcome when making predictions.
There are so many straws being clutched at the moment, Gove might be forced to bring forward his ban
We just don't have enough data to draw anything like reasonable conjectures let alone conclusions.
I know there is nothing to know for certain until Sunday evening and nature abhors a vacuum. But trying to extrapolate the results from a few turnout percentages isn't helping anyone.
> @Quincel said: > If the LDs do win I think we all owe OGH an appropriate amount of awe and reverence the next time he posts on here. > > I'm still not getting too caught up in any of this though. The early straws in the wind have been wrong in loads of GEs.
Agree - bit of a mug's game trying to read too much into turnout figures.
> @oxfordsimon said: > There are so many straws being clutched at the moment, Gove might be forced to bring forward his ban > > We just don't have enough data to draw anything like reasonable conjectures let alone conclusions. > > I know there is nothing to know for certain until Sunday evening and nature abhors a vacuum. But trying to extrapolate the results from a few turnout percentages isn't helping anyone.
It's the only data point we have from this election so far - we are nerds after all!
...and differential turnout could be a key metric.
> @murali_s said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > YouGov last poll had 54% certain to vote 10/10. > > > > > > This is looking like a polling disaster ! > > > > I still think we could hit 40% overall from the figures I've seen so far. > > 39.99% would do me!
What if your vote is the one that tips you into the red part of your book?
> @Greenwich_Floater said: > > @KentRising said: > Expect this election to feed into the revoke/second referendum momentum. > > How much of that statement is forecast and how much is hopecast. I'm not wishing to devalue your contribution but it is noticeable how many contributors lean to their preferred outcome when making predictions.
I voted Leave in 2016 and Brexit Party today, so definitely not Hopecast!
> @Mortimer said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @KentRising said: > > > Expect this election to feed into the revoke/second referendum momentum. > > ----- > > > > It may also vindicate Theresa May's attempt to cling on. Parliament might be more inclined to vote through the WAB + a referendum. > > She isn't going to cling on. That much is pretty clear in tonight's papers.
Though a below expectations vote for BXP should damage the chances of May being replaced by someone who voted against the WA.
> @KentRising said: > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > @KentRising said: > > Expect this election to feed into the revoke/second referendum momentum. > > > > How much of that statement is forecast and how much is hopecast. I'm not wishing to devalue your contribution but it is noticeable how many contributors lean to their preferred outcome when making predictions. > > I voted Leave in 2016 and Brexit Party today, so definitely not Hopecast!
> @Greenwich_Floater said: > > @Quincel said: > > If the LDs do win I think we all owe OGH an appropriate amount of awe and reverence the next time he posts on here. > > > > I'm still not getting too caught up in any of this though. The early straws in the wind have been wrong in loads of GEs. > > Agree - bit of a mug's game trying to read too much into turnout figures.
Very true.
I've been expecting LDs to benefit from the awful Labour positioning for quite a while, and it does finally seem to be happening.
But I also see my Dad, the most loyal Tory I know, voting TBP today. And it makes me think - hmmm. Maybe the TBP polling really is as simple as huge gains from Tories in the South and Labour in the North.
> @KentRising said: > > @nico67 said: > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > https://twitter.com/durhamcouncil/status/1131709209580638208 > > > > Another high Leave area . This is all very strange , either Remainers are all staying home in these Leave areas and the BP are maxing out their voters or the results on Sunday are going to be a bit closer . I still expect a clear win for the BP . It might be these turnouts really mess up the other placings. > > I think you're overcomplicating it. There has clearly been lower motivation in the Brexit areas, probably many staying away in protest as they believe the election shouldn't be happening at all of course. Remainers have been galvanised. If the Brexit Party do still win, it won't be by much and their expectation management has been non-existent. Expect this election to feed into the revoke/second referendum momentum.
I don't think it makes much difference really to the Brexit Party, South Somerset for example was majority Leave and had a 40% turnout, just the Brexit Party will be closer to 30% than 40%.
The biggest difference I think will be to ensure the LDs take second and beat Labour as turnout in Labour seats is about 10% lower than turnout in LD seats so far if not more, indeed turnout in Tory seats is also higher than turnout in Labour seats. If Labour came 4th that would be a disaster for Corbyn
> @Greenwich_Floater said: > > @KentRising said: > > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > > @KentRising said: > > > Expect this election to feed into the revoke/second referendum momentum. > > > > > > How much of that statement is forecast and how much is hopecast. I'm not wishing to devalue your contribution but it is noticeable how many contributors lean to their preferred outcome when making predictions. > > > > I voted Leave in 2016 and Brexit Party today, so definitely not Hopecast! > > LOL - reverse psychology perhaps then.
I am always incredibly pessimistic and a Corporal Jones, so hoping to have egg on face Sunday night...
> > Very true. > > I've been expecting LDs to benefit from the awful Labour positioning for quite a while, and it does finally seem to be happening. > > But I also see my Dad, the most loyal Tory I know, voting TBP today. And it makes me think - hmmm. Maybe the TBP polling really is as simple as huge gains from Tories in the South and Labour in the North.
I imagine if the CON vote does hold up anywhere it might be in the North. My experience of northern tories is that they would probably see themselves above voting for TBP.
> @nico67 said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > https://twitter.com/southlakelanddc/status/1131711096316936192 > > > > I was there recently. Lots of Lib Dem posters up. One large Tory one. #Anecdata > > One of the few areas to vote Remain in Cumbria . We shouldn’t get too excited yet , I’ll be happy with just a smaller gap to the BP.
I'm certainly not getting excited. As someone who was shouting at his radio in 2016 when they were saying Remain would win and I knew they had it wrong, I'm never following that path. In any case, even if BXP got just 25% I would still consider that a terrible result. I would like them on 0%. There are only two outcomes possible for me on Sunday: worry, or horror.
> @HYUFD said: > > @KentRising said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > > https://twitter.com/durhamcouncil/status/1131709209580638208 > > > > > > Another high Leave area . This is all very strange , either Remainers are all staying home in these Leave areas and the BP are maxing out their voters or the results on Sunday are going to be a bit closer . I still expect a clear win for the BP . It might be these turnouts really mess up the other placings. > > > > I think you're overcomplicating it. There has clearly been lower motivation in the Brexit areas, probably many staying away in protest as they believe the election shouldn't be happening at all of course. Remainers have been galvanised. If the Brexit Party do still win, it won't be by much and their expectation management has been non-existent. Expect this election to feed into the revoke/second referendum momentum. > > I don't think it makes much difference really to the Brexit Party, South Somerset for example was majority Leave and had a 40% turnout, just the Brexit Party will be closer to 30% than 40%. > > The biggest difference I think will be to ensure the LDs take second and beat Labour as turnout in Labour seats is about 10% lower than turnout in LD seats so far if not more, indeed turnout in Tory seats is also higher than turnout in Labour seats. If Labour came 4th that would be a disaster for Corbyn
This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the Greens to beat both the Tories and Labour.
> > I am always incredibly pessimistic and a Corporal Jones, so hoping to have egg on face Sunday night...
FWIW, I think you will be a happy bunny on Sunday night. Particularly if you are minded to take pleasure in the demise of the Labour party. If we are trying to make guesses based on turnout, it looks particularly grim for them.
> @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > > > This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the Greens to beat both the Tories and Labour. > > I'd be genuinely amazed if they beat either of them. A lot of people considering voting Green will have jumped to LDem bandwagon.
Mmm, hold that thought. I think there'll be some switching from Lab to Grab with folk on the Left-Remain quadrant. If the LDs are too centrist and Lab are too Leave, you either go Green or you go home. (England only)
This is my thinking too. Its not going to be as simple as turnout in Remain/Leave areas - its also going to be differentials in different areas of the country, and then the churn that we won't see until the votes are counted on Sunday.
Just from witnessing the cratering poll shares of the Tories over the past couple of weeks, at the same time as rising poll shares for TBP, I'm guessing that huge numbers of Tories, habitual voters, will have gone that way.
> @Gallowgate said: > Are rural torys more likely to switch the brexit party than urban torys? Lib Dems have always done well in Northumberland and the South West.
Probably depends whether it's a middle-class or working-class urban area. Tory votes in the latter will go over to the Brexit Party in large numbers, in the former to the LDs.
> > > > Or he is spinning for TBP, which considering his leanings is possible > > I don’t think so as he was downbeat earlier. The other account I linked to is a LD, worth looking at both
Fair enough - I think it's actually a viable theory. If you are a proper LAB brexiteer then you are probably more likely to stay at home that lend your vote to Farage.
Whereas CON brexiteers don't have such a problem because he talks their language.
> @ah009 said: > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > > > > > > This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the Greens to beat both the Tories and Labour. > > > > I'd be genuinely amazed if they beat either of them. A lot of people considering voting Green will have jumped to LDem bandwagon. > > Mmm, hold that thought. I think there'll be some switching from Lab to Grab with folk on the Left-Remain quadrant. If the LDs are too centrist and Lab are too Leave, you either go Green or you go home. (England only)
Don't get me wrong - I think the Greens will do well in the context of their historical vote share - catching LAB and CON could only happen if the implosion in the main parties vote is far, far worse than anyone has predicted.
> @williamglenn said: > It's frustrating not to have any real results. There's only so much guesswork you can do based on turnout.
I think the guesswork 'analysis' so far has exceeded any of the information that we have. I could quite easily stand up and explain for five minutes why I am totally wrong, or totally right, from the same dataset!
> @Greenwich_Floater said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > > > > > > > > > This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the Greens to beat both the Tories and Labour. > > > > > > I'd be genuinely amazed if they beat either of them. A lot of people considering voting Green will have jumped to LDem bandwagon. > > > > Mmm, hold that thought. I think there'll be some switching from Lab to Grab with folk on the Left-Remain quadrant. If the LDs are too centrist and Lab are too Leave, you either go Green or you go home. (England only) > > Don't get me wrong - I think the Greens will do well in the context of their historical vote share - catching LAB and CON could only happen if the implosion in the main parties vote is far, far worse than anyone has predicted.
I have a gentleman's wager with a LD that GRNs go over 10% - my guess is it might be quite close, judging on the soar in Green share at the locals.
> @AndyJS said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > Are rural torys more likely to switch the brexit party than urban torys? Lib Dems have always done well in Northumberland and the South West. > > Probably depends whether it's a middle-class or working-class urban area. Tory votes in the latter will go over to the Brexit Party in large numbers, in the former to the LDs.
Plenty of middle-class Home Counties and rural SouthWest seats voted Leave and many Tories there will vote Brexit Party
> > We may have to face the reality that Remainers care more about this question than Brexiteers.
>
> Certainly looks that way.
>
> Polls may have overestimated Brexit Party. I now expect Lib dems and the brexit party to be much closer than the polls were showing. I doubt The Brexit Party will get over 33% now.
I hope so, I've bet on them getting less than 30%.
> @nico67 said: > An interesting finding from a poll was that Labour Leavers see Brexit as a lower priority . > > This might be part of the reason for the lower turnout .
It also means we should be careful in extrapolating to a general election.
If the Euros were a quasi-referendum on Brexit then it would be foolish to write off either Labour or Conservatives on the back of poor results, and premature for Nigel or Vince to be measuring the Number 10 curtains.
> > I have a gentleman's wager with a LD that GRNs go over 10% - my guess is it might be quite close, judging on the soar in Green share at the locals.
10% would be a stunning result. It might get them over one of the main parties, but probably not both.
I don't know whether the new and bold offer with the WA this week will have had any effect on the CON vote. I imagine that those that were off to TBP had already made their minds up but from a personal point of view, I had a degree of sympathy as it was obviously an attempt at reconciling the various positions but just had the effect of alienating the various factions even more.
If I was a stay at home CON voter, I might have been inclined to vote out of sympathy for the determined efforts of May. That could be a factor in higher turnout in CON areas.
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > If the Euros were a quasi-referendum on Brexit then it would be foolish to write off either Labour or Conservatives on the back of poor results, and premature for Nigel or Vince to be measuring the Number 10 curtains. --------
True, but it's the potential for a terrible result to plunge the two main parties into further internal chaos that could mean this won't be a flash in the pan.
That was very close in the EU ref , just voted Leave . So far there does seem a decent correlation overall , the more Remain or let’s say the less leavish the better the turnout .
> @viewcode said: > > @nunuone said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > We may have to face the reality that Remainers care more about this question than Brexiteers. > > > > > > Certainly looks that way. > > > > > > Polls may have overestimated Brexit Party. I now expect Lib dems and the brexit party to be much closer than the polls were showing. I doubt The Brexit Party will get over 33% now. > > > > I hope so, I've bet on them getting less than 30%. > > Good luck
> @Greenwich_Floater said: > > @Mortimer said: > > > > > I have a gentleman's wager with a LD that GRNs go over 10% - my guess is it might be quite close, judging on the soar in Green share at the locals. > > 10% would be a stunning result. It might get them over one of the main parties, but probably not both. > > I don't know whether the new and bold offer with the WA this week will have had any effect on the CON vote. I imagine that those that were off to TBP had already made their minds up but from a personal point of view, I had a degree of sympathy as it was obviously an attempt at reconciling the various positions but just had the effect of alienating the various factions even more. > > If I was a stay at home CON voter, I might have been inclined to vote out of sympathy for the determined efforts of May. That could be a factor in higher turnout in CON areas.
Conversely, it was what finally convinced my Pa to vote TBP.
The good news is we'll have around 60 more hours to discuss this without even an inkling of a result. Happy days!
Good luck. I await your response with great anticipation.
Ah yes, cheers. It's not a perfect chart since Excel won't put a line where Remain at 50% is! But there does seem to be some kind of Remainy trend in area turnout.
> @williamglenn said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > Plenty of middle-class Home Counties and rural SouthWest seats voted Leave and many Tories there will vote Brexit Party > > Plenty of middle-class Home Counties Tory voters will have voted Lib Dem too.
The turnout figures do suggest Brexit Party first, LD second and close between Tories, Labour and Greens for third
> @HYUFD said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > Plenty of middle-class Home Counties and rural SouthWest seats voted Leave and many Tories there will vote Brexit Party > > > > Plenty of middle-class Home Counties Tory voters will have voted Lib Dem too. > > The turnout figures do suggest Brexit Party first, LD second and close between Tories, Labour and Greens for third
I'm not a Green supporter but I wish them luck in getting more votes than both the main parties on this occasion.
Comments
> https://twitter.com/southlakelanddc/status/1131711096316936192
I was there recently. Lots of Lib Dem posters up. One large Tory one. #Anecdata
> We may have to face the reality that Remainers care more about this question than Brexiteers.
Certainly looks that way.
Polls may have overestimated Brexit Party. I now expect Lib dems and the brexit party to be much closer than the polls were showing. I doubt The Brexit Party will get over 33% now.
> Expect this election to feed into the revoke/second referendum momentum.
-----
It may also vindicate Theresa May's attempt to cling on. Parliament might be more inclined to vote through the WAB + a referendum.
I'm still not getting too caught up in any of this though. The early straws in the wind have been wrong in loads of GEs.
> https://twitter.com/copelandbc/status/1131712555897036800
62 % Leave area .
> > @williamglenn said:
> > We may have to face the reality that Remainers care more about this question than Brexiteers.
>
> Certainly looks that way.
>
> Polls may have overestimated Brexit Party. I now expect Lib dems and the brexit party to be much closer than the polls were showing. I doubt The Brexit Party will get over 33% now.
I hope so, I've bet on them getting less than 30%.
> > @KentRising said:
> > Expect this election to feed into the revoke/second referendum momentum.
> -----
>
> It may also vindicate Theresa May's attempt to cling on. Parliament might be more inclined to vote through the WAB + a referendum.
She isn't going to cling on. That much is pretty clear in tonight's papers.
Expect this election to feed into the revoke/second referendum momentum.
How much of that statement is forecast and how much is hopecast. I'm not wishing to devalue your contribution but it is noticeable how many contributors lean to their preferred outcome when making predictions.
We just don't have enough data to draw anything like reasonable conjectures let alone conclusions.
I know there is nothing to know for certain until Sunday evening and nature abhors a vacuum. But trying to extrapolate the results from a few turnout percentages isn't helping anyone.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > https://twitter.com/copelandbc/status/1131712555897036800
>
> 62 % Leave area .
Leavers haven't come out. Remain have won this.
Night night.
> https://twitter.com/lizneedhamstar/status/1131708535090352130
O.L these are Remain voters turning out.
> If the LDs do win I think we all owe OGH an appropriate amount of awe and reverence the next time he posts on here.
>
> I'm still not getting too caught up in any of this though. The early straws in the wind have been wrong in loads of GEs.
Agree - bit of a mug's game trying to read too much into turnout figures.
> There are so many straws being clutched at the moment, Gove might be forced to bring forward his ban
>
> We just don't have enough data to draw anything like reasonable conjectures let alone conclusions.
>
> I know there is nothing to know for certain until Sunday evening and nature abhors a vacuum. But trying to extrapolate the results from a few turnout percentages isn't helping anyone.
It's the only data point we have from this election so far - we are nerds after all!
...and differential turnout could be a key metric.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > YouGov last poll had 54% certain to vote 10/10.
> > >
> > > This is looking like a polling disaster !
> >
> > I still think we could hit 40% overall from the figures I've seen so far.
>
> 39.99% would do me!
What if your vote is the one that tips you into the red part of your book?
https://twitter.com/exeterkevin/status/1131714173036060672?s=21
> > @KentRising said:
> Expect this election to feed into the revoke/second referendum momentum.
>
> How much of that statement is forecast and how much is hopecast. I'm not wishing to devalue your contribution but it is noticeable how many contributors lean to their preferred outcome when making predictions.
I voted Leave in 2016 and Brexit Party today, so definitely not Hopecast!
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @KentRising said:
> > > Expect this election to feed into the revoke/second referendum momentum.
> > -----
> >
> > It may also vindicate Theresa May's attempt to cling on. Parliament might be more inclined to vote through the WAB + a referendum.
>
> She isn't going to cling on. That much is pretty clear in tonight's papers.
Though a below expectations vote for BXP should damage the chances of May being replaced by someone who voted against the WA.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > https://twitter.com/southlakelanddc/status/1131711096316936192
>
> I was there recently. Lots of Lib Dem posters up. One large Tory one. #Anecdata
One of the few areas to vote Remain in Cumbria . We shouldn’t get too excited yet , I’ll be happy with just a smaller gap to the BP.
> > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > @KentRising said:
> > Expect this election to feed into the revoke/second referendum momentum.
> >
> > How much of that statement is forecast and how much is hopecast. I'm not wishing to devalue your contribution but it is noticeable how many contributors lean to their preferred outcome when making predictions.
>
> I voted Leave in 2016 and Brexit Party today, so definitely not Hopecast!
LOL - reverse psychology perhaps then.
> > @Quincel said:
> > If the LDs do win I think we all owe OGH an appropriate amount of awe and reverence the next time he posts on here.
> >
> > I'm still not getting too caught up in any of this though. The early straws in the wind have been wrong in loads of GEs.
>
> Agree - bit of a mug's game trying to read too much into turnout figures.
Very true.
I've been expecting LDs to benefit from the awful Labour positioning for quite a while, and it does finally seem to be happening.
But I also see my Dad, the most loyal Tory I know, voting TBP today. And it makes me think - hmmm. Maybe the TBP polling really is as simple as huge gains from Tories in the South and Labour in the North.
> > @nico67 said:
> > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > https://twitter.com/durhamcouncil/status/1131709209580638208
> >
> > Another high Leave area . This is all very strange , either Remainers are all staying home in these Leave areas and the BP are maxing out their voters or the results on Sunday are going to be a bit closer . I still expect a clear win for the BP . It might be these turnouts really mess up the other placings.
>
> I think you're overcomplicating it. There has clearly been lower motivation in the Brexit areas, probably many staying away in protest as they believe the election shouldn't be happening at all of course. Remainers have been galvanised. If the Brexit Party do still win, it won't be by much and their expectation management has been non-existent. Expect this election to feed into the revoke/second referendum momentum.
I don't think it makes much difference really to the Brexit Party, South Somerset for example was majority Leave and had a 40% turnout, just the Brexit Party will be closer to 30% than 40%.
The biggest difference I think will be to ensure the LDs take second and beat Labour as turnout in Labour seats is about 10% lower than turnout in LD seats so far if not more, indeed turnout in Tory seats is also higher than turnout in Labour seats. If Labour came 4th that would be a disaster for Corbyn
> > @RobD said:
> > I assume someone is working on a turnout vs. leave chart?
>
> Good idea.
Only problem is I'm supposed to be inputting local elections results over the weekend. (Volunteer of course, not being paid for it).
> > @KentRising said:
> > > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > > @KentRising said:
> > > Expect this election to feed into the revoke/second referendum momentum.
> > >
> > > How much of that statement is forecast and how much is hopecast. I'm not wishing to devalue your contribution but it is noticeable how many contributors lean to their preferred outcome when making predictions.
> >
> > I voted Leave in 2016 and Brexit Party today, so definitely not Hopecast!
>
> LOL - reverse psychology perhaps then.
I am always incredibly pessimistic and a Corporal Jones, so hoping to have egg on face Sunday night...
> https://twitter.com/carmscouncil/status/1131714404913963009
Up 5.6%. Voted Leave 54%-46%.
So maybe not a uniform Remain area boost...
> > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > @Quincel said:
>
> Very true.
>
> I've been expecting LDs to benefit from the awful Labour positioning for quite a while, and it does finally seem to be happening.
>
> But I also see my Dad, the most loyal Tory I know, voting TBP today. And it makes me think - hmmm. Maybe the TBP polling really is as simple as huge gains from Tories in the South and Labour in the North.
I imagine if the CON vote does hold up anywhere it might be in the North. My experience of northern tories is that they would probably see themselves above voting for TBP.
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > https://twitter.com/southlakelanddc/status/1131711096316936192
> >
> > I was there recently. Lots of Lib Dem posters up. One large Tory one. #Anecdata
>
> One of the few areas to vote Remain in Cumbria . We shouldn’t get too excited yet , I’ll be happy with just a smaller gap to the BP.
I'm certainly not getting excited. As someone who was shouting at his radio in 2016 when they were saying Remain would win and I knew they had it wrong, I'm never following that path.
In any case, even if BXP got just 25% I would still consider that a terrible result. I would like them on 0%. There are only two outcomes possible for me on Sunday: worry, or horror.
> > @KentRising said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/durhamcouncil/status/1131709209580638208
> > >
> > > Another high Leave area . This is all very strange , either Remainers are all staying home in these Leave areas and the BP are maxing out their voters or the results on Sunday are going to be a bit closer . I still expect a clear win for the BP . It might be these turnouts really mess up the other placings.
> >
> > I think you're overcomplicating it. There has clearly been lower motivation in the Brexit areas, probably many staying away in protest as they believe the election shouldn't be happening at all of course. Remainers have been galvanised. If the Brexit Party do still win, it won't be by much and their expectation management has been non-existent. Expect this election to feed into the revoke/second referendum momentum.
>
> I don't think it makes much difference really to the Brexit Party, South Somerset for example was majority Leave and had a 40% turnout, just the Brexit Party will be closer to 30% than 40%.
>
> The biggest difference I think will be to ensure the LDs take second and beat Labour as turnout in Labour seats is about 10% lower than turnout in LD seats so far if not more, indeed turnout in Tory seats is also higher than turnout in Labour seats. If Labour came 4th that would be a disaster for Corbyn
This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the Greens to beat both the Tories and Labour.
>
> I am always incredibly pessimistic and a Corporal Jones, so hoping to have egg on face Sunday night...
FWIW, I think you will be a happy bunny on Sunday night. Particularly if you are minded to take pleasure in the demise of the Labour party. If we are trying to make guesses based on turnout, it looks particularly grim for them.
> https://twitter.com/nkdccx/status/1131715315434491904
That's up 3% in a 62% Leave area.
https://twitter.com/andrew_adonis/status/1131716241419309057?s=21
> What’s he on about?
>
> https://twitter.com/andrew_adonis/status/1131716241419309057
"Many places" probably means "one place".
Although it makes sense the lower turnout places are the first to report.
Sigh, if only our Brussels masters would let us count today.
> This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the Greens to beat both the Tories and Labour.
I'd be genuinely amazed if they beat either of them. A lot of people considering voting Green will have jumped to LDem bandwagon.
> What’s he on about?
>
> https://twitter.com/andrew_adonis/status/1131716241419309057
Confirmed - Adonis has officially gone bonkers.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > What’s he on about?
> >
> > https://twitter.com/andrew_adonis/status/1131716241419309057
>
> Confirmed - Adonis has officially gone bonkers.
Not quite. he has been bonkers for a very long time.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > What’s he on about?
> >
> > https://twitter.com/andrew_adonis/status/1131716241419309057
>
> Confirmed - Adonis has officially gone bonkers.
That kind of happened a while ago...
> https://twitter.com/derbycc/status/1131716791921762305
Down 3% from 2014, voted Leave 57-43%.
> https://twitter.com/bopulrafi/status/1131715358287699970
>
>
>
> This fellow seems switched on. He’s saying labour leave seats have poor turnout, Tory Leave have good turnout and Tories have gone BXP
Or he is spinning for TBP, which considering his leanings is possible
> >
> > Confirmed - Adonis has officially gone bonkers.
>
> That kind of happened a while ago...
Adonis is one of those remainers that gave remainers a bad name for a while.
>
> >
> > This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the Greens to beat both the Tories and Labour.
>
> I'd be genuinely amazed if they beat either of them. A lot of people considering voting Green will have jumped to LDem bandwagon.
Mmm, hold that thought. I think there'll be some switching from Lab to Grab with folk on the Left-Remain quadrant. If the LDs are too centrist and Lab are too Leave, you either go Green or you go home. (England only)
> https://twitter.com/bopulrafi/status/1131715358287699970
>
>
>
> This fellow seems switched on. He’s saying labour leave seats have poor turnout, Tory Leave have good turnout and Tories have gone BXP
This is my thinking too. Its not going to be as simple as turnout in Remain/Leave areas - its also going to be differentials in different areas of the country, and then the churn that we won't see until the votes are counted on Sunday.
Just from witnessing the cratering poll shares of the Tories over the past couple of weeks, at the same time as rising poll shares for TBP, I'm guessing that huge numbers of Tories, habitual voters, will have gone that way.
> Are rural torys more likely to switch the brexit party than urban torys? Lib Dems have always done well in Northumberland and the South West.
Probably depends whether it's a middle-class or working-class urban area. Tory votes in the latter will go over to the Brexit Party in large numbers, in the former to the LDs.
> https://twitter.com/adcashfield/status/1131716437255569410
70% Leave !
>
>
>
> Or he is spinning for TBP, which considering his leanings is possible
>
> I don’t think so as he was downbeat earlier. The other account I linked to is a LD, worth looking at both
Fair enough - I think it's actually a viable theory. If you are a proper LAB brexiteer then you are probably more likely to stay at home that lend your vote to Farage.
Whereas CON brexiteers don't have such a problem because he talks their language.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > https://twitter.com/adcashfield/status/1131716437255569410
>
> 70% Leave !
For the Brexit Party to get 40% overall they would have needed a higher turnout in places like Ashfield IMO.
> > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> >
> > >
> > > This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the Greens to beat both the Tories and Labour.
> >
> > I'd be genuinely amazed if they beat either of them. A lot of people considering voting Green will have jumped to LDem bandwagon.
>
> Mmm, hold that thought. I think there'll be some switching from Lab to Grab with folk on the Left-Remain quadrant. If the LDs are too centrist and Lab are too Leave, you either go Green or you go home. (England only)
Don't get me wrong - I think the Greens will do well in the context of their historical vote share - catching LAB and CON could only happen if the implosion in the main parties vote is far, far worse than anyone has predicted.
...but Corbyn is safe!
> > @nico67 said:
> > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > https://twitter.com/adcashfield/status/1131716437255569410
> >
> > 70% Leave !
>
> For the Brexit Party to get 40% overall they would have needed a higher turnout in places like Ashfield IMO.
I'm not sure that is correct. They might end bigger fish in a smaller pool. You might be right. Let's see Sunday.
> It's frustrating not to have any real results. There's only so much guesswork you can do based on turnout.
I think the guesswork 'analysis' so far has exceeded any of the information that we have. I could quite easily stand up and explain for five minutes why I am totally wrong, or totally right, from the same dataset!
This might be part of the reason for the lower turnout .
> Whatever is happening at the top of the leaderboard, it's looking like a shocker for Labour.
>
> ...but Corbyn is safe!
At what point does he stop politicking for a GE (on the basis that he can't win it)
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > >
> > > >
> > > > This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the Greens to beat both the Tories and Labour.
> > >
> > > I'd be genuinely amazed if they beat either of them. A lot of people considering voting Green will have jumped to LDem bandwagon.
> >
> > Mmm, hold that thought. I think there'll be some switching from Lab to Grab with folk on the Left-Remain quadrant. If the LDs are too centrist and Lab are too Leave, you either go Green or you go home. (England only)
>
> Don't get me wrong - I think the Greens will do well in the context of their historical vote share - catching LAB and CON could only happen if the implosion in the main parties vote is far, far worse than anyone has predicted.
I have a gentleman's wager with a LD that GRNs go over 10% - my guess is it might be quite close, judging on the soar in Green share at the locals.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > Are rural torys more likely to switch the brexit party than urban torys? Lib Dems have always done well in Northumberland and the South West.
>
> Probably depends whether it's a middle-class or working-class urban area. Tory votes in the latter will go over to the Brexit Party in large numbers, in the former to the LDs.
Plenty of middle-class Home Counties and rural SouthWest seats voted Leave and many Tories there will vote Brexit Party
> An interesting finding from a poll was that Labour Leavers see Brexit as a lower priority .
>
> This might be part of the reason for the lower turnout .
It also means we should be careful in extrapolating to a general election.
If the Euros were a quasi-referendum on Brexit then it would be foolish to write off either Labour or Conservatives on the back of poor results, and premature for Nigel or Vince to be measuring the Number 10 curtains.
It isn't going to happen, but a man can dream!
>
> Plenty of middle-class Home Counties and rural SouthWest seats voted Leave and many Tories there will vote Brexit Party
Plenty of middle-class Home Counties Tory voters will have voted Lib Dem too.
>
> I have a gentleman's wager with a LD that GRNs go over 10% - my guess is it might be quite close, judging on the soar in Green share at the locals.
10% would be a stunning result. It might get them over one of the main parties, but probably not both.
I don't know whether the new and bold offer with the WA this week will have had any effect on the CON vote. I imagine that those that were off to TBP had already made their minds up but from a personal point of view, I had a degree of sympathy as it was obviously an attempt at reconciling the various positions but just had the effect of alienating the various factions even more.
If I was a stay at home CON voter, I might have been inclined to vote out of sympathy for the determined efforts of May. That could be a factor in higher turnout in CON areas.
>
> If the Euros were a quasi-referendum on Brexit then it would be foolish to write off either Labour or Conservatives on the back of poor results, and premature for Nigel or Vince to be measuring the Number 10 curtains.
--------
True, but it's the potential for a terrible result to plunge the two main parties into further internal chaos that could mean this won't be a flash in the pan.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.158459637
Looks like Bournemouth. Leave 55%
> https://twitter.com/harboroughdc/status/1131721406717284352
That was very close in the EU ref , just voted Leave . So far there does seem a decent correlation overall , the more Remain or let’s say the less leavish the better the turnout .
> > @nunuone said:
>
> > > @williamglenn said:
>
> > > We may have to face the reality that Remainers care more about this question than Brexiteers.
>
> >
>
> > Certainly looks that way.
>
> >
>
> > Polls may have overestimated Brexit Party. I now expect Lib dems and the brexit party to be much closer than the polls were showing. I doubt The Brexit Party will get over 33% now.
>
>
>
> I hope so, I've bet on them getting less than 30%.
>
> Good luck
Thanks.
> > @Mortimer said:
>
> >
> > I have a gentleman's wager with a LD that GRNs go over 10% - my guess is it might be quite close, judging on the soar in Green share at the locals.
>
> 10% would be a stunning result. It might get them over one of the main parties, but probably not both.
>
> I don't know whether the new and bold offer with the WA this week will have had any effect on the CON vote. I imagine that those that were off to TBP had already made their minds up but from a personal point of view, I had a degree of sympathy as it was obviously an attempt at reconciling the various positions but just had the effect of alienating the various factions even more.
>
> If I was a stay at home CON voter, I might have been inclined to vote out of sympathy for the determined efforts of May. That could be a factor in higher turnout in CON areas.
Conversely, it was what finally convinced my Pa to vote TBP.
The good news is we'll have around 60 more hours to discuss this without even an inkling of a result. Happy days!
> https://twitter.com/lewisjallison/status/1131721647491375106
>
>
>
> Looks like Bournemouth.
That's all of them in the picture- LOL
> Not looking good for the Tories on Betfair Exchange. 5%-9.99% is now favourite as far as their share of the vote is concerned.
>
> https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.158459637
What's the LAB vote midpoint
Not being lazy - I have anti-gambling software on my comp. Amazed I can access this site.
55% Remain
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > https://twitter.com/lewisjallison/status/1131721647491375106
> >
> >
> >
> > Looks like Bournemouth.
>
> That's all of them in the picture- LOL
Yep, that is Bournemouth. At the BIC
A couple of new Labour councillors from the locals are in the photo.
> https://twitter.com/CarmsCouncil/status/1131714404913963009?s=20
Carmathenshire was 54% Leave, highest turnout for a Leave area so far at 42%
http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/7624/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-frustratingly-there-ll-be-no-results-or-even-on-the-day-polls#latest
Good luck. I await your response with great anticipation.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > https://twitter.com/lewisjallison/status/1131721647491375106
> >
> >
> >
> > Looks like Bournemouth.
>
> That's all of them in the picture- LOL
Lmao ! I really must get to bed but the nice folk in here are far too entertaining ! Can I just say this is a great forum .
> https://twitter.com/strouddc/status/1131722170500079618
>
>
>
> 55% Remain
There is going to be a Remain majority
>
> Carmathenshire was 54% Leave, highest turnout for a Leave area so far at 42%
54% Leave was in 2016. Some of these areas have swung back a lot since then.
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > Plenty of middle-class Home Counties and rural SouthWest seats voted Leave and many Tories there will vote Brexit Party
>
> Plenty of middle-class Home Counties Tory voters will have voted Lib Dem too.
The turnout figures do suggest Brexit Party first, LD second and close between Tories, Labour and Greens for third
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > >
> > > Plenty of middle-class Home Counties and rural SouthWest seats voted Leave and many Tories there will vote Brexit Party
> >
> > Plenty of middle-class Home Counties Tory voters will have voted Lib Dem too.
>
> The turnout figures do suggest Brexit Party first, LD second and close between Tories, Labour and Greens for third
I'm not a Green supporter but I wish them luck in getting more votes than both the main parties on this occasion.