BBT is a poor American sitcom whereas GoT is the greatest fantasy epic to ever grace the small screen with a subpar ending.
BBT had a remarkably succesful final season and through its history successfully evolved its characters whilst introducing new ones that furthered its plot whilst remaining coherent.
Projections from 590 polling places show that PS and PVV may be under the 3.85% threshold while Party for Animals may get in. In touch and go. Dutch Labour is confirmed in the lead, will even get a 6th seat if PS and PVV get 0
> @matt said: > Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure. > > Same observation as me but we’re all university educated millennial scientists and engineers. Prime ‘Remain’ territory. > > But that's what Labour is now, the traditional base is gone. Also, lol at scientists and engineers. More like gender studies and social media "analysts". > > Well in my sample its Mechanical Engineering, Maths, Chemistry, Biomedical Engineering, Medicine, Computer Science to name just a few. > > Sounds like tonight's final ever 'Big Bang Theory' episode. > > Less sex. More Settlers of Catan.
> > Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure.
> >
> > Same observation as me but we’re all university educated millennial scientists and engineers. Prime ‘Remain’ territory.
> >
> > But that's what Labour is now, the traditional base is gone. Also, lol at scientists and engineers. More like gender studies and social media "analysts".
> >
> > Well in my sample its Mechanical Engineering, Maths, Chemistry, Biomedical Engineering, Medicine, Computer Science to name just a few.
> >
> > Sounds like tonight's final ever 'Big Bang Theory' episode.
>
> Big bang theory final season is more disappointing than GoT...
BBT is a poor American sitcom whereas GoT is the greatest fantasy epic to ever grace the small screen with a subpar ending.
I’ve meant to but not watched GOT (read the books though). Is it just neckbeards complaining or is is Mass Effect 3 levels of travesty?
> > Bizarrely Opinium Westminster poll (26/25/22) is not too bad for Con.
> >
> > Brexit will split very heavily for Con rather than Lab - so even if Brexit got around 10% Con would be well ahead of Lab.
> >
> > As for Boris, he will surely tack to the Centre if elected - he won't want the economy to be damaged any more than anyone else and I suspect he couldn't care less about Brexit.
> >
> > It will just be a question of cobbling something together that passes as reasonable and that he can get through.
>
> Indeed, Opinium has a Cons and Brexit Party majority in England BUT Corbyn could still become PM with SNP and Plaid and LD support
Convention is biggest party gets first chance to form a coalition and I see one between Labour and the SNP and/or Lib Dems as a formality. It'll be that 'Progressive Coalition' bollocks Labour were spouting back in 2010 when Gordon Brown was holed-up in No.10 after losing the election, sofa against the door....
Wouldn’t the same “not with him as leader” apply to Corbyn as it did with Brown?
I can see presentational difficulties for a shiny fresh LibDem leader getting into bed with an old Trot like Jezza, and the SNP would hardly be searching for reasons to team up with their main rivals in Scotland.
And if JC has just become leader of the largest party, I don’t see his crowd sounding that amenable to compromise. Indeed, I suspect the ongoing relationship would be about as warm as TM and the DUP.
Reality may force all of them into bed.. but I don’t think it would be the sort of meeting of minds we apparently saw in 2010. And the conversation would be a lot easier with Watson, Starmer, Cooper etc.
@oxfordsimon the issue is that it seems like she will ‘announce’ that she will resign as party leader in June so that the leadership contest can start. That means for the next few weeks she’s still leader, still prime minister, and no leadership contest yet.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @Mortimer said: > > > @MaxPB said: > > > > @MaxPB said: > > > > > > > Hmm, I'm starting to the Labour might finish 4th nationally behind the Tories in 3rd. > > > > > > > > > > > > What about the Greens? > > > > > > 5th behind both. I also think the LDs will do well at their expense. > > > > My final predix: > > > > TBP:40 > > LD:22 > > GRN:12 > > LAB:7 > > CON:7 > > CUK:4 > > UKIP:4 > > I think you're a little low with your SNP forecast. I can't see them getting zero, but I may be wrong. > > Also, I can't see the ChUK bunch getting more than a couple of seats personally. (London and the SE.) And that's if they're lucky. > > Finally, 4 for UKIP also looks highly unlikely. Remember, the largest region is the South East with 10 MEPs. If UKIP polls 5% nationally, then they probably miss out almost everywhere. (Don't forget 6% for the LDs only got them a single seat.) > > Robert, I think those are his percentages, not seats
> @rcs1000 said: > > @Mortimer said: > > > @MaxPB said: > > > > @MaxPB said: > > > > > > > Hmm, I'm starting to the Labour might finish 4th nationally behind the Tories in 3rd. > > > > > > > > > > > > What about the Greens? > > > > > > 5th behind both. I also think the LDs will do well at their expense. > > > > My final predix: > > > > TBP:40 > > LD:22 > > GRN:12 > > LAB:7 > > CON:7 > > CUK:4 > > UKIP:4 > > I think you're a little low with your SNP forecast. I can't see them getting zero, but I may be wrong. > > Also, I can't see the ChUK bunch getting more than a couple of seats personally. (London and the SE.) And that's if they're lucky. > > Finally, 4 for UKIP also looks highly unlikely. Remember, the largest region is the South East with 10 MEPs. If UKIP polls 5% nationally, then they probably miss out almost everywhere. (Don't forget 6% for the LDs only got them a single seat.) > >
> > Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure.
> >
> > Same observation as me but we’re all university educated millennial scientists and engineers. Prime ‘Remain’ territory.
> >
> > But that's what Labour is now, the traditional base is gone. Also, lol at scientists and engineers. More like gender studies and social media "analysts".
> >
> > Well in my sample its Mechanical Engineering, Maths, Chemistry, Biomedical Engineering, Medicine, Computer Science to name just a few.
> >
> > Sounds like tonight's final ever 'Big Bang Theory' episode.
>
> Big bang theory final season is more disappointing than GoT...
BBT is a poor American sitcom whereas GoT is the greatest fantasy epic to ever grace the small screen with a subpar ending.
I’ve meant to but not watched GOT (read the books though). Is it just neckbeards complaining or is is Mass Effect 3 levels of travesty?
> @Mortimer said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > What decent telly is there at the moment? Feels like the golden age has passed. > > Was having the exact same discussion at work the other day. > > The days of Sopranos, Mad Men, Wire, West Wing etc seem to be over. > > Billions is good. Sneaky Pete is pretty good too
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @Quincel said: > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > > Labour third in London - crikey that'd be a funny way to lose my bet on them there > > > > > > > > > > Squeaky bum time for Khan... > > > > > > > > I covered on Benita and Berry somewhat the other day. > > > > > > Obviously Khan would rather Labour storm it, but so long as he doesn't slip into third behind Benita or Berry he surely gets their transfers? If a Brexit Party candidate is second or potentially even first he should still be OK I'd expect. > > > > Khan has been unequivocally pro #Peoplesvote, and anto-Corbyn. I don't think that he will be too affected by the Labour leadership being discredited. > > No he hasn't. He hasn't been unequivocally anything - certainly not anti-Corbyn. He may have issued some less supportive statements - but he has not fully divorced himself from the leadership of his Party.
> @Mortimer said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > What decent telly is there at the moment? Feels like the golden age has passed. > > Was having the exact same discussion at work the other day. > > The days of Sopranos, Mad Men, Wire, West Wing etc seem to be over. > > Billions is good. Sneaky Pete is pretty good too
Latest season of billions is not so good imo. Sneaky pete is fine but nothing to write home about.
> I’ve meant to but not watched GOT (read the books though). Is it just neckbeards complaining or is is Mass Effect 3 levels of travesty?
I've only read the first four books but I think the central issue is that the story telling in Game of Thrones doesn't lend itself to a sharp and pointed outcome which is expected as the end of a multi-season TV series ? It probably always was going to disappoint.
> @AndreaParma_82 said: > Prepare for Saturday when results will leak from random French colonies no-one remember they were still part of France > > > @RobD said: > > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > > Netherlands is counting right now. They won't release official results until Sunday...but let's guess how long they will stay "secret" in the social media era given parties have reps at polling stations looking at the count. > > > > Bloody typical. Are we the only country in Europe that plays by the rules? > >
> @Mauve said: > > @BigRich said: > > This may have been talked over endlessly on PB while I have been away, but possible if not probably cores of events, > > > > 1) CUK, do badly and give up joining the LD, (now 22 LD MPs) > > > > 2) in Peterbourough By election it becomes a tow horse race with LD and TBP, probably with a TBP win. > > > > > > The Lib Dems won't be a factor in Peterborough, it just isn't their type of seat. They got less than 4% in 2017. It'll be between Brexit, Con and Labour. Depends on who turns out to vote and how much they're thinking about non-Brexit policies
Peterborough was one of the seats with the highest combined Con/Lab vote in 2016 GE about 93% IIRC, but that is shy it would be such a shock in Lab con in 3rd and 4th (eather way)
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > > @Mortimer said: > > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > What decent telly is there at the moment? Feels like the golden age has passed. > > > > Was having the exact same discussion at work the other day. > > > > The days of Sopranos, Mad Men, Wire, West Wing etc seem to be over. > > > > Billions is good. Sneaky Pete is pretty good too > > Latest season of billions is not so good imo. Sneaky pete is fine but nothing to write home about.
Agree re: Billions - seems to have lost something this year...
> @KentRising said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > What decent telly is there at the moment? Feels like the golden age has passed. > > We're re-watching all seven series of Voyager from the start. Netflix. > > A lesser-known fact about Voyager: it's better than the Next Generation. > > *Dons helmet* >
> @Gallowgate said: > @oxfordsimon the issue is that it seems like she will ‘announce’ that she will resign as party leader in June so that the leadership contest can start. That means for the next few weeks she’s still leader, still prime minister, and no leadership contest yet. > > The zombie government rolls on.
We are about to have a recess - so I can understand not triggering at the start of that.
Then there is a major international event with the D-Day commemorations - which ought to be carried out with as much dignity as possible (given our visitor from the US making that more tricky than normal)
Taking that into consideration, making the resignation official as soon as that is concluded is not that unreasonable. Yes, it is a delay - but it is not really going to change much. As soon as the announcement is made, the campaign to succeed her effectively starts. Hopefully a short membership voting period can be sorted which brings the whole thing to a finish before too long.
> @MTimT said: > > @Mortimer said: > > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > What decent telly is there at the moment? Feels like the golden age has passed. > > > > Was having the exact same discussion at work the other day. > > > > The days of Sopranos, Mad Men, Wire, West Wing etc seem to be over. > > > > Billions is good. Sneaky Pete is pretty good too > > I am really liking Barry.
Oooh thanks - almost watched that the other day, will add it to the list.
> @Foxy said: > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > > @Quincel said: > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > > > Labour third in London - crikey that'd be a funny way to lose my bet on them there > > > > > > > > > > > > Squeaky bum time for Khan... > > > > > > > > > > I covered on Benita and Berry somewhat the other day. > > > > > > > > Obviously Khan would rather Labour storm it, but so long as he doesn't slip into third behind Benita or Berry he surely gets their transfers? If a Brexit Party candidate is second or potentially even first he should still be OK I'd expect. > > > > > > Khan has been unequivocally pro #Peoplesvote, and anto-Corbyn. I don't think that he will be too affected by the Labour leadership being discredited. > > > > No he hasn't. He hasn't been unequivocally anything - certainly not anti-Corbyn. He may have issued some less supportive statements - but he has not fully divorced himself from the leadership of his Party. > > This sounds pretty unequivocal: > > https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/15/people-vote-brexit-sadiq-khan > > and he has often sniped at Jezza
Sniping isn't enough. He could have refused to have any active engagement with the Labour leadership. But he hasn't. He could have resigned from Labour and been an Independent Mayor - he hasn't.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > What decent telly is there at the moment? Feels like the golden age has passed. > > Killing Eve, series two > Fleabag, series two
> @Ave_it said: > None of the below breaches s30 > > Ave it projects: > > BXP 42% > LD 20% > LAB 11% > GRN 10% > CON 7% > OTH 10% > > CON wins 1 seat in D'Hondt method in SE - no other seats > > Ave it also projects that Theresa resigns tomorrow and @trussliz becomes PM September!
I would love to see Liz Truss as PM, and may happen, but think it unlikely.
> @Jonathan said: > If offered a General Election, Corbyn must go for it. Given all that he has said he would have no choice.
Generally yes but not given a transparent attempt to game the timetable to prevent parliament stopping a car-crash brexit. Fix that, then have the election. Extra credit if he gets to be the caretaker PM.
PS The other problem with this whole scenario is that abruptly blowing up all your trade relations doesn't provide an ideal economic feel-good factor to run for reelection...
Also just to prolong things the result in Scotland will not be announced until Monday since the Western Isles will not count on a Sunday. Because of this no verification is being done tonight in Scotland as far as I know.
> @Wulfrun_Phil said: > > The final Survation poll predicts that Labour will achieve a vote share almost as high as Miliband achieved for Labour in the 2014 Euros. > > Surely not.
We know for sure that some of the pollsters have got this badly wrong, which makes you wonder how accurate their Westminster VI polls are at the moment...
> @edmundintokyo said: > > @Jonathan said: > > If offered a General Election, Corbyn must go for it. Given all that he has said he would have no choice. > > Generally yes but not given a transparent attempt to game the timetable to prevent parliament stopping a car-crash brexit. Fix that, then have the election. Extra credit if he gets to be the caretaker PM. > > PS The other problem with this whole scenario is that abruptly blowing up all your trade relations doesn't provide an ideal economic feel-good factor to run for reelection...
All the more reason to get the election in on day 1. You, with your BP friends have 5 full years to sort things out.
> @_Anazina_ said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > > > Also, I can't see the ChUK bunch getting more than a couple of seats personally. (London and the SE.) And that's if they're lucky. > > > > > That's about as risk free a forecast as predicting that the sun won't come up in the morning. > > Predicting that the sun won’t come in the morning is a risk free forecast?
If you live in England, pretty solid money, I'd say
Can someone with a bit of local knowledge give a bit of demographic/political background - Foley Park and Broadwatesr vs Bewdley/Wyre Forest rural?
Bewdley has the Severn Valley Railwsy and is therefore nostalgic age group Brexit voting/middle class intelligent remain. Foley Park has social housing etc etc. in short, wait for the results.
> @Saltire said: > > @nico67 said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > The Daily Mail's Survation poll: > > > > > > https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/05/23/22/13882110-7064685-image-a-48_1558646904249.jpg > > > > Wow that would be a shock . Labour on 23 and Lib Dems on only 12 . > > > > Lib Dems polling less for the Euros than for Westminster . That just doesn’t make any sense . > > > > The BP on 31 seems a bit low. One things for sure some polling companies are going to have a shocker . > > I think that because the Remain vote is concentrated is a smaller part of the country (way more Constituencies voted leave than remain) it might be difficult to get a proper balance in the samples. Also I suspect that turnout is going to vary quite a lot over the country depending on how much effort the local parties in each area are willing to put in, and it could be result in bigger differences between each of the polling regions than in the past.
I have been predicting Lab. 18.6%.
Labour voters have stayed at home today so could be as low as 13% I reckon.
I think those turnout figures from Wyre Forest are slightly disappointing for Brexit supporters because the district voted 63% Leave and a 32% turnout is less than expected.
> @Wulfrun_Phil said: > > The final Survation poll predicts that Labour will achieve a vote share almost as high as Miliband achieved for Labour in the 2014 Euros. > > Surely not.
We know for sure that some of the pollsters have got this badly wrong, which makes you wonder how accurate their Westminster VI polls are at the moment...
My hunch is that how accurate a pollster’s European polling is will be inversely proportional to have accurate their Westminster polling is.
> @AndreaParma_82 said: > Broadwaters > Franche > Greenhil > Mitton > Oldington and Foley Park > > were the wards which elected a UKIP Cllr in 2014 locals in Wyre Forests >
Yikes. Looks like they had the lowest turnout. The likelihood of Brexit Party being the most overestimated looks reasonable.
> @AndreaParma_82 said: > Broadwaters > Franche > Greenhil > Mitton > Oldington and Foley Park > > were the wards which elected a UKIP Cllr in 2014 locals in Wyre Forests >
And looking at LE 2019 results, higher turnout in Tory wards.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Wulfrun_Phil said: > > > > The final Survation poll predicts that Labour will achieve a vote share almost as high as Miliband achieved for Labour in the 2014 Euros. > > > > Surely not. > > We know for sure that some of the pollsters have got this badly wrong, which makes you wonder how accurate their Westminster VI polls are at the moment...
To be honest I’m stunned by that Survation poll . They have been constantly one of the better pollsters for Labour and the Tories but just listening to Labour MPs and their experiences today it just is the polar opposite . It would suggest hardly any movement from Labour to the Lib Dems and Greens .
> @Jonathan said: > Might this happen? > > New Hard Brexit Tory leader triggers the FTPA and calls a general election with the election date set after 31 Oct. > > As such we cannot avoid a hard Brexit. > > The election becomes all about who gets to negotiate the future relationship from a fait-accompli WTO position. > > Farage's gang stands in Remainer held seats and becomes a minor coalition partner to the Tories is a Leave majority parliament running a WTO Britain,
I'm convinced a general election will be held either in October this year or in the spring of next year. Definitely within 12 months. This parliament is exhausted, and a new Tory leader will want to take on Corbyn sooner rather than later.
> @bigjohnowls said: > > @Saltire said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > The Daily Mail's Survation poll: > > > > > > > > https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/05/23/22/13882110-7064685-image-a-48_1558646904249.jpg > > > > > > Wow that would be a shock . Labour on 23 and Lib Dems on only 12 . > > > > > > Lib Dems polling less for the Euros than for Westminster . That just doesn’t make any sense . > > > > > > The BP on 31 seems a bit low. One things for sure some polling companies are going to have a shocker . > > > > I think that because the Remain vote is concentrated is a smaller part of the country (way more Constituencies voted leave than remain) it might be difficult to get a proper balance in the samples. Also I suspect that turnout is going to vary quite a lot over the country depending on how much effort the local parties in each area are willing to put in, and it could be result in bigger differences between each of the polling regions than in the past. > > I have been predicting Lab. 18.6%. > > Labour voters have stayed at home today so could be as low as 13% I reckon.
I think those turnout figures from Wyre Forest are slightly disappointing for Brexit supporters because the district voted 63% Leave and a 32% turnout is less than expected.
> @HYUFD said: > Survation Final Euros poll > > Brexit Party 31% > Labour 23% > Cons 14% > LDs 12% > Greens 7% > CUK 4% > UKIP 3% > SNP 3% > > > General Election > Labour 33% > Cons 28% > LDs 13% > Brexit Party 12% > > 43% more likely to vote Tory under a Boris leadership, 24% less likely and 57% want May to resign though 54% blame Tory rebels for Brexit failure, only 27% May. > > 36% back Boris as new Tory leader miles ahead of second placed Javid on 9%, Gove on 7% and Hunt on 5%, Leadsom and Raab on 3% with McVey > https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/05/23/22/13882110-7064685-image-a-48_1558646904249.jpg > > > > > > >
it doesn't include postal votes handed by hands at polling stations but it includes postal votes sent by post
> @isam said: > .I think those turnout figures from Wyre Forest are slightly disappointing for Brexit supporters because the district voted 63% Leave and a 32% turnout is less than expected. > > It doesn’t include postal votes though does it?
> @Mortimer said: > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > Broadwaters > > Franche > > Greenhil > > Mitton > > Oldington and Foley Park > > > > were the wards which elected a UKIP Cllr in 2014 locals in Wyre Forests > > > > And looking at LE 2019 results, higher turnout in Tory wards. > > This is looking very strong for TBP.
Is it? Or is it just the wealthier wards (Tory wards) are having higher turnout as per usual.
> > Nice of Wyre Forest to release all this data. I wonder if any other councils are doing the same thing...
>
> I smell a spreadsheet in the offing....
Can we extrapolate results for the entire country from these two tweets?
Given the only other news is that Theresa May might resign soon it seems as good a topic as any
I expect to be horribly out with this prediction (I thought Miliband would narrowly beat Cameron in 2015 so have a bad track record), but I await my humiliation on Sunday with dignity: 30% Brexit 22% Lib Dem 17% Lab 12% Con 9% Green 3% ChUK 2% UKIP 5% Other Turnout around 45%
> @isam said: > .I think those turnout figures from Wyre Forest are slightly disappointing for Brexit supporters because the district voted 63% Leave and a 32% turnout is less than expected. > > It doesn’t include postal votes though does it?
I think (but may be wrong, that it will include most postal votes, but not those handed in on the day.
Reflections on my first day working at a polling station:
Firstly, I really enjoyed the experience. I was lucky enough to be working at my local polling station, so saw a lot of familiar faces (though a sad indictment of modern urban life is that even after living here for ten years, even after having several children and garnering all the connections that that brings, I knew barely one person in twenty). I was struck by how positive, and just how nice almost everyone was. The British electorate are a good bunch, even if they don't agree with each other. And I believe in democracy; it may be slow, juddering and inefficient, but it's the best way we have of reaching a decision. I am feeling the warm afterglow from participation in the democratic process. Along with the slight wooziness of a 17 hour shift.
Secondly, how the bloody hell do Sunderland complete their count before 11? It takes a good ten minutes of admin, at least, at the end of the poll; by the time you've loaded your car and got to the Town Hall it's 10.30 and there's a traffic jam to get in, because there are hundreds of polling stations. It's hard to imagine they start counting much before 10.25, even if they're super-efficient.
Thirdly, my local area is much more varied than I expected - far more pensioners than I thought, and far more ethnic minorities (this observation based on people I met today), and far more exotic-sounding surnames than I expected (based on the register as a whole). Also surprising how many people live in flats - they might not account for much land area -so you don't really notice them as much - but there are of course a lot of people in them.
Anyway, back to more relevant matters - very high turnout in Sale. I'd say assuming postal voters voted as enthusiastically as those who turned up in person, turnout here was well over 50%. Difficult to say who that is positive for. A few obvious Brexiters (the guy wearing the union jack braces; the guy double checking which party Nigel Farage was leading now, as he wasn't on the ballot paper); a few obvious remainers (mainly those who I know personally, tbh), but difficult to say if either side was out in unusual force.
I was struck by the number of people who appeared to be making their minds up in the polling booth.
I was struck by the guy in his forties asking what he had to do as he had never voted before.
I was struck by the number of people making sardonic remarks about the lack of queues. Even when we were quite busy, people were saying how quiet it was. I really don't know what people expect - even if everyone on the list voted in person, that would still barely amount to one voter a minute.
I was struck by my wife and daughters all turning up and bringing me snacks and a big hug. Politics is rather unimportant compared to that.
> .I think those turnout figures from Wyre Forest are slightly disappointing for Brexit supporters because the district voted 63% Leave and a 32% turnout is less than expected.
> .I think those turnout figures from Wyre Forest are slightly disappointing for Brexit supporters because the district voted 63% Leave and a 32% turnout is less than expected.
>
> It doesn’t include postal votes though does it?
I think (but may be wrong, that it will include most postal votes, but not those handed in on the day.
> @Jonathan said: > > @bigjohnowls said: > > > @Saltire said: > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > The Daily Mail's Survation poll: > > > > > > > > > > https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/05/23/22/13882110-7064685-image-a-48_1558646904249.jpg > > > > > > > > Wow that would be a shock . Labour on 23 and Lib Dems on only 12 . > > > > > > > > Lib Dems polling less for the Euros than for Westminster . That just doesn’t make any sense . > > > > > > > > The BP on 31 seems a bit low. One things for sure some polling companies are going to have a shocker . > > > > > > I think that because the Remain vote is concentrated is a smaller part of the country (way more Constituencies voted leave than remain) it might be difficult to get a proper balance in the samples. Also I suspect that turnout is going to vary quite a lot over the country depending on how much effort the local parties in each area are willing to put in, and it could be result in bigger differences between each of the polling regions than in the past. > > > > I have been predicting Lab. 18.6%. > > > > Labour voters have stayed at home today so could be as low as 13% I reckon. > > Your man screwed up, right?
2nd referendum anals in PLP fooked it up in North , Midlands and other Brexit areas.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > What decent telly is there at the moment? Feels like the golden age has passed.
Chernobyl is excellent; great cast, a satisfying range of Soviet utility transport and some terrible tailoring. There's even some sardonic CCCP humour among the grimness.
Depictions of authentic Soviet heroism might not be to the average PB taste though.
> @bigjohnowls said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > @bigjohnowls said: > > > > @Saltire said: > > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > > The Daily Mail's Survation poll: > > > > > > > > > > > > https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/05/23/22/13882110-7064685-image-a-48_1558646904249.jpg > > > > > > > > > > Wow that would be a shock . Labour on 23 and Lib Dems on only 12 . > > > > > > > > > > Lib Dems polling less for the Euros than for Westminster . That just doesn’t make any sense . > > > > > > > > > > The BP on 31 seems a bit low. One things for sure some polling companies are going to have a shocker . > > > > > > > > I think that because the Remain vote is concentrated is a smaller part of the country (way more Constituencies voted leave than remain) it might be difficult to get a proper balance in the samples. Also I suspect that turnout is going to vary quite a lot over the country depending on how much effort the local parties in each area are willing to put in, and it could be result in bigger differences between each of the polling regions than in the past. > > > > > > I have been predicting Lab. 18.6%. > > > > > > Labour voters have stayed at home today so could be as low as 13% I reckon. > > > > Your man screwed up, right? > > 2nd referendum anals in PLP fooked it up in North , Midlands and other Brexit areas.
> @nunuone said: > > @Mortimer said: > > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > > Broadwaters > > > Franche > > > Greenhil > > > Mitton > > > Oldington and Foley Park > > > > > > were the wards which elected a UKIP Cllr in 2014 locals in Wyre Forests > > > > > > > And looking at LE 2019 results, higher turnout in Tory wards. > > > > This is looking very strong for TBP. > > Is it? Or is it just the wealthier wards (Tory wards) are having higher turnout as per usual.
> @Mauve said: > > @Mortimer said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/WyreForestDC/status/1131685956350828544 > > > > > > > > > > Nice of Wyre Forest to release all this data. I wonder if any other councils are doing the same thing... > > > > > > I smell a spreadsheet in the offing.... > > > > Can we extrapolate results for the entire country from these two tweets? > > Given the only other news is that Theresa May might resign soon it seems as good a topic as any > > I expect to be horribly out with this prediction (I thought Miliband would narrowly beat Cameron in 2015 so have a bad track record), but I await my humiliation on Sunday with dignity: > 30% Brexit > 22% Lib Dem > 17% Lab > 12% Con > 9% Green > 3% ChUK > 2% UKIP > 5% Other > Turnout around 45%
You won’t be the only one losing your dignity if that Survation poll is correct . I’ll also be joining you . I was expecting a Labour meltdown in the polls . And the Tories beating the Lib Dems would be a huge shock .
> @Theuniondivvie said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > What decent telly is there at the moment? Feels like the golden age has passed. > > Chernobyl is excellent; great cast, a satisfying range of Soviet utility transport and some terrible tailoring. There's even some sardonic CCCP humour among the grimness. > > Depictions of authentic Soviet heroism might not be to the average PB taste though. >
I literally fell asleep during the first episode. So slow...
Wow another shocker . Isn’t that a strong leave area . Really at this point I have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen on Sunday when the results come out .
So if Why Forest have gone down form 36% to 32% Compared to last EU elections in 2014, does anybody have to hand what turnout in Southend BC was in 2014?
> @AndyJS said: > > @murali_s said: > > While we're doing predictions, here's mine: > > > > BRX 29% > > LD 23% > > LAB 13% > > CON 11% > > GRE 11% > > CUK 4% > > UKIP 4% > > SNP 4% > > > > Turnout 39% > > > > Outside chance that LD will top the poll. > > Are you a betting man? You can get 6/1 for the Brexit Party polling between 25% and 30%. > > https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.158459621
Comments
GoT had tits and dragons.
Pause.
Bazinga
Ah, my coat.
> Anecdote alert: ALL my regular Labour voting friends did not vote Labour today. A sample size in double figure.
>
> Same observation as me but we’re all university educated millennial scientists and engineers. Prime ‘Remain’ territory.
>
> But that's what Labour is now, the traditional base is gone. Also, lol at scientists and engineers. More like gender studies and social media "analysts".
>
> Well in my sample its Mechanical Engineering, Maths, Chemistry, Biomedical Engineering, Medicine, Computer Science to name just a few.
>
> Sounds like tonight's final ever 'Big Bang Theory' episode.
>
> Less sex. More Settlers of Catan.
Settlers of Catan..... mhhhhh
I can see presentational difficulties for a shiny fresh LibDem leader getting into bed with an old Trot like Jezza, and the SNP would hardly be searching for reasons to team up with their main rivals in Scotland.
And if JC has just become leader of the largest party, I don’t see his crowd sounding that amenable to compromise. Indeed, I suspect the ongoing relationship would be about as warm as TM and the DUP.
Reality may force all of them into bed.. but I don’t think it would be the sort of meeting of minds we apparently saw in 2010. And the conversation would be a lot easier with Watson, Starmer, Cooper etc.
The zombie government rolls on.
> > @Mortimer said:
> > > @MaxPB said:
> > > > @MaxPB said:
> > >
> > > > Hmm, I'm starting to the Labour might finish 4th nationally behind the Tories in 3rd.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > What about the Greens?
> > >
> > > 5th behind both. I also think the LDs will do well at their expense.
> >
> > My final predix:
> >
> > TBP:40
> > LD:22
> > GRN:12
> > LAB:7
> > CON:7
> > CUK:4
> > UKIP:4
>
> I think you're a little low with your SNP forecast. I can't see them getting zero, but I may be wrong.
>
> Also, I can't see the ChUK bunch getting more than a couple of seats personally. (London and the SE.) And that's if they're lucky.
>
> Finally, 4 for UKIP also looks highly unlikely. Remember, the largest region is the South East with 10 MEPs. If UKIP polls 5% nationally, then they probably miss out almost everywhere. (Don't forget 6% for the LDs only got them a single seat.)
>
>
Robert, I think those are his percentages, not seats
Ave it projects:
BXP 42%
LD 20%
LAB 11%
GRN 10%
CON 7%
OTH 10%
CON wins 1 seat in D'Hondt method in SE - no other seats
Ave it also projects that Theresa resigns tomorrow and @trussliz becomes PM September!
> What decent telly is there at the moment? Feels like the golden age has passed.
Was having the exact same discussion at work the other day.
The days of Sopranos, Mad Men, Wire, West Wing etc seem to be over.
Billions is good. Sneaky Pete is pretty good too
I am getting distinct last-episode-of-Genesis-Of-The-Daleks vibes here...
> > @Mortimer said:
> > > @MaxPB said:
> > > > @MaxPB said:
> > >
> > > > Hmm, I'm starting to the Labour might finish 4th nationally behind the Tories in 3rd.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > What about the Greens?
> > >
> > > 5th behind both. I also think the LDs will do well at their expense.
> >
> > My final predix:
> >
> > TBP:40
> > LD:22
> > GRN:12
> > LAB:7
> > CON:7
> > CUK:4
> > UKIP:4
>
> I think you're a little low with your SNP forecast. I can't see them getting zero, but I may be wrong.
>
> Also, I can't see the ChUK bunch getting more than a couple of seats personally. (London and the SE.) And that's if they're lucky.
>
> Finally, 4 for UKIP also looks highly unlikely. Remember, the largest region is the South East with 10 MEPs. If UKIP polls 5% nationally, then they probably miss out almost everywhere. (Don't forget 6% for the LDs only got them a single seat.)
>
>
I'm predicting %, sorry - should have been clear.
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > What decent telly is there at the moment? Feels like the golden age has passed.
>
> Was having the exact same discussion at work the other day.
>
> The days of Sopranos, Mad Men, Wire, West Wing etc seem to be over.
>
> Billions is good. Sneaky Pete is pretty good too
I am really liking Barry.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @Quincel said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > > Labour third in London - crikey that'd be a funny way to lose my bet on them there
> > > > >
> > > > > Squeaky bum time for Khan...
> > > >
> > > > I covered on Benita and Berry somewhat the other day.
> > >
> > > Obviously Khan would rather Labour storm it, but so long as he doesn't slip into third behind Benita or Berry he surely gets their transfers? If a Brexit Party candidate is second or potentially even first he should still be OK I'd expect.
> >
> > Khan has been unequivocally pro #Peoplesvote, and anto-Corbyn. I don't think that he will be too affected by the Labour leadership being discredited.
>
> No he hasn't. He hasn't been unequivocally anything - certainly not anti-Corbyn. He may have issued some less supportive statements - but he has not fully divorced himself from the leadership of his Party.
This sounds pretty unequivocal:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/15/people-vote-brexit-sadiq-khan
and he has often sniped at Jezza
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > What decent telly is there at the moment? Feels like the golden age has passed.
>
> Was having the exact same discussion at work the other day.
>
> The days of Sopranos, Mad Men, Wire, West Wing etc seem to be over.
>
> Billions is good. Sneaky Pete is pretty good too
Latest season of billions is not so good imo. Sneaky pete is fine but nothing to write home about.
> I’ve meant to but not watched GOT (read the books though). Is it just neckbeards complaining or is is Mass Effect 3 levels of travesty?
I've only read the first four books but I think the central issue is that the story telling in Game of Thrones doesn't lend itself to a sharp and pointed outcome which is expected as the end of a multi-season TV series ?
It probably always was going to disappoint.
> Prepare for Saturday when results will leak from random French colonies no-one remember they were still part of France
>
> > @RobD said:
> > > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > > Netherlands is counting right now. They won't release official results until Sunday...but let's guess how long they will stay "secret" in the social media era given parties have reps at polling stations looking at the count.
> >
> > Bloody typical. Are we the only country in Europe that plays by the rules?
>
>
Yes.
> > @BigRich said:
> > This may have been talked over endlessly on PB while I have been away, but possible if not probably cores of events,
> >
> > 1) CUK, do badly and give up joining the LD, (now 22 LD MPs)
> >
> > 2) in Peterbourough By election it becomes a tow horse race with LD and TBP, probably with a TBP win.
> >
> >
>
> The Lib Dems won't be a factor in Peterborough, it just isn't their type of seat. They got less than 4% in 2017. It'll be between Brexit, Con and Labour. Depends on who turns out to vote and how much they're thinking about non-Brexit policies
Peterborough was one of the seats with the highest combined Con/Lab vote in 2016 GE about 93% IIRC, but that is shy it would be such a shock in Lab con in 3rd and 4th (eather way)
> > @Mortimer said:
> > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > What decent telly is there at the moment? Feels like the golden age has passed.
> >
> > Was having the exact same discussion at work the other day.
> >
> > The days of Sopranos, Mad Men, Wire, West Wing etc seem to be over.
> >
> > Billions is good. Sneaky Pete is pretty good too
>
> Latest season of billions is not so good imo. Sneaky pete is fine but nothing to write home about.
Agree re: Billions - seems to have lost something this year...
> What decent telly is there at the moment? Feels like the golden age has passed.
We're re-watching all seven series of Voyager from the start. Netflix.
A lesser-known fact about Voyager: it's better than the Next Generation.
*Dons helmet*
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > What decent telly is there at the moment? Feels like the golden age has passed.
>
> We're re-watching all seven series of Voyager from the start. Netflix.
>
> A lesser-known fact about Voyager: it's better than the Next Generation.
>
> *Dons helmet*
>
I've been watching a few of those too.... spooky.
Where as others have them miles higher .
> @oxfordsimon the issue is that it seems like she will ‘announce’ that she will resign as party leader in June so that the leadership contest can start. That means for the next few weeks she’s still leader, still prime minister, and no leadership contest yet.
>
> The zombie government rolls on.
We are about to have a recess - so I can understand not triggering at the start of that.
Then there is a major international event with the D-Day commemorations - which ought to be carried out with as much dignity as possible (given our visitor from the US making that more tricky than normal)
Taking that into consideration, making the resignation official as soon as that is concluded is not that unreasonable. Yes, it is a delay - but it is not really going to change much. As soon as the announcement is made, the campaign to succeed her effectively starts. Hopefully a short membership voting period can be sorted which brings the whole thing to a finish before too long.
> > @Mortimer said:
> > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > What decent telly is there at the moment? Feels like the golden age has passed.
> >
> > Was having the exact same discussion at work the other day.
> >
> > The days of Sopranos, Mad Men, Wire, West Wing etc seem to be over.
> >
> > Billions is good. Sneaky Pete is pretty good too
>
> I am really liking Barry.
Oooh thanks - almost watched that the other day, will add it to the list.
> What decent telly is there at the moment? Feels like the golden age has passed.
Killing Eve, series two
Fleabag, series two
> https://twitter.com/WyreForestDC/status/1131685956350828544
Nice of Wyre Forest to release all this data. I wonder if any other councils are doing the same thing...
> > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @Quincel said:
> > > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > > > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > > > Labour third in London - crikey that'd be a funny way to lose my bet on them there
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Squeaky bum time for Khan...
> > > > >
> > > > > I covered on Benita and Berry somewhat the other day.
> > > >
> > > > Obviously Khan would rather Labour storm it, but so long as he doesn't slip into third behind Benita or Berry he surely gets their transfers? If a Brexit Party candidate is second or potentially even first he should still be OK I'd expect.
> > >
> > > Khan has been unequivocally pro #Peoplesvote, and anto-Corbyn. I don't think that he will be too affected by the Labour leadership being discredited.
> >
> > No he hasn't. He hasn't been unequivocally anything - certainly not anti-Corbyn. He may have issued some less supportive statements - but he has not fully divorced himself from the leadership of his Party.
>
> This sounds pretty unequivocal:
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/15/people-vote-brexit-sadiq-khan
>
> and he has often sniped at Jezza
Sniping isn't enough. He could have refused to have any active engagement with the Labour leadership. But he hasn't. He could have resigned from Labour and been an Independent Mayor - he hasn't.
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > What decent telly is there at the moment? Feels like the golden age has passed.
>
> Killing Eve, series two
> Fleabag, series two
Fleabag was absolutely fab.
> None of the below breaches s30
>
> Ave it projects:
>
> BXP 42%
> LD 20%
> LAB 11%
> GRN 10%
> CON 7%
> OTH 10%
>
> CON wins 1 seat in D'Hondt method in SE - no other seats
>
> Ave it also projects that Theresa resigns tomorrow and @trussliz becomes PM September!
I would love to see Liz Truss as PM, and may happen, but think it unlikely.
Aggborough & Spennells 34%
Areley Kings & Riverside 33%
Bewdley & Rock 40%
Blakebrook & Habberley South 30%
Broadwaters 28%
Foley Park & Hoobrook 27%
Franche & Habberley North 30%Lickhill 33%
Mitton 30%
Offmore & Comberton 31%
Wribbenhall & Arley 37%
Wyre Forest Rural 39%
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > https://twitter.com/WyreForestDC/status/1131685956350828544
>
> Nice of Wyre Forest to release all this data. I wonder if any other councils are doing the same thing...
I smell a spreadsheet in the offing....
> If offered a General Election, Corbyn must go for it. Given all that he has said he would have no choice.
Generally yes but not given a transparent attempt to game the timetable to prevent parliament stopping a car-crash brexit. Fix that, then have the election. Extra credit if he gets to be the caretaker PM.
PS The other problem with this whole scenario is that abruptly blowing up all your trade relations doesn't provide an ideal economic feel-good factor to run for reelection...
> https://twitter.com/WyreForestDC/status/1131685956350828544
Lower than I thought it would be.
> turnout by ward in Wyre Forest
>
> Aggborough & Spennells 34%
>
> Areley Kings & Riverside 33%
>
> Bewdley & Rock 40%
>
> Blakebrook & Habberley South 30%
>
> Broadwaters 28%
>
> Foley Park & Hoobrook 27%
>
> Franche & Habberley North 30%Lickhill 33%
>
> Mitton 30%
>
> Offmore & Comberton 31%
>
> Wribbenhall & Arley 37%
>
> Wyre Forest Rural 39%
>
>
Can someone with a bit of local knowledge give a bit of demographic/political background - Foley Park and Broadwatesr vs Bewdley/Wyre Forest rural?
> https://twitter.com/benpbradshaw/status/1131668450248667152
The final Survation poll predicts that Labour will achieve a vote share almost as high as Miliband achieved for Labour in the 2014 Euros.
Surely not.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > > https://twitter.com/WyreForestDC/status/1131685956350828544
> >
> > Nice of Wyre Forest to release all this data. I wonder if any other councils are doing the same thing...
>
> I smell a spreadsheet in the offing....
Can we extrapolate results for the entire country from these two tweets?
>
> The final Survation poll predicts that Labour will achieve a vote share almost as high as Miliband achieved for Labour in the 2014 Euros.
>
> Surely not.
We know for sure that some of the pollsters have got this badly wrong, which makes you wonder how accurate their Westminster VI polls are at the moment...
> > @Jonathan said:
> > If offered a General Election, Corbyn must go for it. Given all that he has said he would have no choice.
>
> Generally yes but not given a transparent attempt to game the timetable to prevent parliament stopping a car-crash brexit. Fix that, then have the election. Extra credit if he gets to be the caretaker PM.
>
> PS The other problem with this whole scenario is that abruptly blowing up all your trade relations doesn't provide an ideal economic feel-good factor to run for reelection...
All the more reason to get the election in on day 1. You, with your BP friends have 5 full years to sort things out.
https://election.news.sky.com/referendum/wyre-forest-3079
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > turnout by ward in Wyre Forest
> >
> > Aggborough & Spennells 34%
> >
> > Areley Kings & Riverside 33%
> >
> > Bewdley & Rock 40%
> >
> > Blakebrook & Habberley South 30%
> >
> > Broadwaters 28%
> >
> > Foley Park & Hoobrook 27%
> >
> > Franche & Habberley North 30%Lickhill 33%
> >
> > Mitton 30%
> >
> > Offmore & Comberton 31%
> >
> > Wribbenhall & Arley 37%
> >
> > Wyre Forest Rural 39%
> >
> >
>
> Can someone with a bit of local knowledge give a bit of demographic/political background - Foley Park and Broadwatesr vs Bewdley/Wyre Forest rural?
Yes, would like to know which wards ukip used to do best in.
> Westwood season 2...now that was a tv show.....
>
> Yes it was. It was a show. It was on television. On this we are agreed.
I am not sure it even passed as a show. Trailer for season 3 was out the other day...it didnt look good.
So she may as well continue with her deal in Parliament whilst Con leadership election takes place.
> > @Mortimer said:
> > > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > > turnout by ward in Wyre Forest
> > >
> > > Aggborough & Spennells 34%
> > >
> > > Areley Kings & Riverside 33%
> > >
> > > Bewdley & Rock 40%
> > >
> > > Blakebrook & Habberley South 30%
> > >
> > > Broadwaters 28%
> > >
> > > Foley Park & Hoobrook 27%
> > >
> > > Franche & Habberley North 30%Lickhill 33%
> > >
> > > Mitton 30%
> > >
> > > Offmore & Comberton 31%
> > >
> > > Wribbenhall & Arley 37%
> > >
> > > Wyre Forest Rural 39%
> > >
> > >
> >
> > Can someone with a bit of local knowledge give a bit of demographic/political background - Foley Park and Broadwatesr vs Bewdley/Wyre Forest rural?
>
> Yes, would like to know which wards ukip used to do best in.
So knowing which are the most Brexity bits of Wyre Forest, and how Were Forest's turnout compares with other districts would be very useful.
Franche
Greenhil
Mitton
Oldington and Foley Park
were the wards which elected a UKIP Cllr in 2014 locals in Wyre Forests
> > @rcs1000 said:
>
> >
>
> > Also, I can't see the ChUK bunch getting more than a couple of seats personally. (London and the SE.) And that's if they're lucky.
>
> >
>
> That's about as risk free a forecast as predicting that the sun won't come up in the morning.
>
> Predicting that the sun won’t come in the morning is a risk free forecast?
If you live in England, pretty solid money, I'd say
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1131645695486828545
> > @nico67 said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > The Daily Mail's Survation poll:
> > >
> > > https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/05/23/22/13882110-7064685-image-a-48_1558646904249.jpg
> >
> > Wow that would be a shock . Labour on 23 and Lib Dems on only 12 .
> >
> > Lib Dems polling less for the Euros than for Westminster . That just doesn’t make any sense .
> >
> > The BP on 31 seems a bit low. One things for sure some polling companies are going to have a shocker .
>
> I think that because the Remain vote is concentrated is a smaller part of the country (way more Constituencies voted leave than remain) it might be difficult to get a proper balance in the samples. Also I suspect that turnout is going to vary quite a lot over the country depending on how much effort the local parties in each area are willing to put in, and it could be result in bigger differences between each of the polling regions than in the past.
I have been predicting Lab. 18.6%.
Labour voters have stayed at home today so could be as low as 13% I reckon.
> Broadwaters
> Franche
> Greenhil
> Mitton
> Oldington and Foley Park
>
> were the wards which elected a UKIP Cllr in 2014 locals in Wyre Forests
>
Yikes. Looks like they had the lowest turnout. The likelihood of Brexit Party being the most overestimated looks reasonable.
> Broadwaters
> Franche
> Greenhil
> Mitton
> Oldington and Foley Park
>
> were the wards which elected a UKIP Cllr in 2014 locals in Wyre Forests
>
And looking at LE 2019 results, higher turnout in Tory wards.
This is looking very strong for TBP.
> > @Wulfrun_Phil said:
> >
> > The final Survation poll predicts that Labour will achieve a vote share almost as high as Miliband achieved for Labour in the 2014 Euros.
> >
> > Surely not.
>
> We know for sure that some of the pollsters have got this badly wrong, which makes you wonder how accurate their Westminster VI polls are at the moment...
To be honest I’m stunned by that Survation poll . They have been constantly one of the better pollsters for Labour and the Tories but just listening to Labour MPs and their experiences today it just is the polar opposite . It would suggest hardly any movement from Labour to the Lib Dems and Greens .
> Might this happen?
>
> New Hard Brexit Tory leader triggers the FTPA and calls a general election with the election date set after 31 Oct.
>
> As such we cannot avoid a hard Brexit.
>
> The election becomes all about who gets to negotiate the future relationship from a fait-accompli WTO position.
>
> Farage's gang stands in Remainer held seats and becomes a minor coalition partner to the Tories is a Leave majority parliament running a WTO Britain,
I'm convinced a general election will be held either in October this year or in the spring of next year. Definitely within 12 months. This parliament is exhausted, and a new Tory leader will want to take on Corbyn sooner rather than later.
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > turnout by ward in Wyre Forest
> >
> > Aggborough & Spennells 34%
> >
> > Areley Kings & Riverside 33%
> >
> > Bewdley & Rock 40%
> >
> > Blakebrook & Habberley South 30%
> >
> > Broadwaters 28%
> >
> > Foley Park & Hoobrook 27%
> >
> > Franche & Habberley North 30%Lickhill 33%
> >
> > Mitton 30%
> >
> > Offmore & Comberton 31%
> >
> > Wribbenhall & Arley 37%
> >
> > Wyre Forest Rural 39%
> >
> >
>
> Can someone with a bit of local knowledge give a bit of demographic/political background - Foley Park and Broadwatesr vs Bewdley/Wyre Forest rural?
Turnout seems to average about 2% up on the locals, but with a lot of variation within that. I can't discern any particular pattern to the variations.
https://www.wyreforestdc.gov.uk/the-council/elections-and-voting/election-results/2019-results-breakdown/district-results-summary/district-results-full.aspx#Wyre Forest Rural
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
>
> > turnout by ward in Wyre Forest
>
> >
>
> > Aggborough & Spennells 34%
>
> >
>
> > Areley Kings & Riverside 33%
>
> >
>
> > Bewdley & Rock 40%
>
> >
>
> > Blakebrook & Habberley South 30%
>
> >
>
> > Broadwaters 28%
>
> >
>
> > Foley Park & Hoobrook 27%
>
> >
>
> > Franche & Habberley North 30%Lickhill 33%
>
> >
>
> > Mitton 30%
>
> >
>
> > Offmore & Comberton 31%
>
> >
>
> > Wribbenhall & Arley 37%
>
> >
>
> > Wyre Forest Rural 39%
>
> >
>
> >
>
>
>
> Can someone with a bit of local knowledge give a bit of demographic/political background - Foley Park and Broadwatesr vs Bewdley/Wyre Forest rural?
>
> Bewdley has the Severn Valley Railwsy and is therefore nostalgic age group Brexit voting/middle class intelligent remain. Foley Park has social housing etc etc. in short, wait for the results.
Have you not been here much?
We've extrapolated nationwide votes hours before the BBC on the basis of very small samples!
> > @Saltire said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > The Daily Mail's Survation poll:
> > > >
> > > > https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/05/23/22/13882110-7064685-image-a-48_1558646904249.jpg
> > >
> > > Wow that would be a shock . Labour on 23 and Lib Dems on only 12 .
> > >
> > > Lib Dems polling less for the Euros than for Westminster . That just doesn’t make any sense .
> > >
> > > The BP on 31 seems a bit low. One things for sure some polling companies are going to have a shocker .
> >
> > I think that because the Remain vote is concentrated is a smaller part of the country (way more Constituencies voted leave than remain) it might be difficult to get a proper balance in the samples. Also I suspect that turnout is going to vary quite a lot over the country depending on how much effort the local parties in each area are willing to put in, and it could be result in bigger differences between each of the polling regions than in the past.
>
> I have been predicting Lab. 18.6%.
>
> Labour voters have stayed at home today so could be as low as 13% I reckon.
Your man screwed up, right?
https://www.wyreforestdc.gov.uk/media/209194/LRO-declaration-form25052014.pdf
> Survation Final Euros poll
>
> Brexit Party 31%
> Labour 23%
> Cons 14%
> LDs 12%
> Greens 7%
> CUK 4%
> UKIP 3%
> SNP 3%
>
>
> General Election
> Labour 33%
> Cons 28%
> LDs 13%
> Brexit Party 12%
>
> 43% more likely to vote Tory under a Boris leadership, 24% less likely and 57% want May to resign though 54% blame Tory rebels for Brexit failure, only 27% May.
>
> 36% back Boris as new Tory leader miles ahead of second placed Javid on 9%, Gove on 7% and Hunt on 5%, Leadsom and Raab on 3% with McVey
> https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/05/23/22/13882110-7064685-image-a-48_1558646904249.jpg
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
Survation no longer gold standard.
No chance Labour anywhere near 23%
> @isam said:
> .I think those turnout figures from Wyre Forest are slightly disappointing for Brexit supporters because the district voted 63% Leave and a 32% turnout is less than expected.
>
> It doesn’t include postal votes though does it?
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > Broadwaters
> > Franche
> > Greenhil
> > Mitton
> > Oldington and Foley Park
> >
> > were the wards which elected a UKIP Cllr in 2014 locals in Wyre Forests
> >
>
> And looking at LE 2019 results, higher turnout in Tory wards.
>
> This is looking very strong for TBP.
Is it? Or is it just the wealthier wards (Tory wards) are having higher turnout as per usual.
I expect to be horribly out with this prediction (I thought Miliband would narrowly beat Cameron in 2015 so have a bad track record), but I await my humiliation on Sunday with dignity:
30% Brexit
22% Lib Dem
17% Lab
12% Con
9% Green
3% ChUK
2% UKIP
5% Other
Turnout around 45%
> .I think those turnout figures from Wyre Forest are slightly disappointing for Brexit supporters because the district voted 63% Leave and a 32% turnout is less than expected.
>
> It doesn’t include postal votes though does it?
I think (but may be wrong, that it will include most postal votes, but not those handed in on the day.
Firstly, I really enjoyed the experience. I was lucky enough to be working at my local polling station, so saw a lot of familiar faces (though a sad indictment of modern urban life is that even after living here for ten years, even after having several children and garnering all the connections that that brings, I knew barely one person in twenty). I was struck by how positive, and just how nice almost everyone was. The British electorate are a good bunch, even if they don't agree with each other. And I believe in democracy; it may be slow, juddering and inefficient, but it's the best way we have of reaching a decision. I am feeling the warm afterglow from participation in the democratic process. Along with the slight wooziness of a 17 hour shift.
Secondly, how the bloody hell do Sunderland complete their count before 11? It takes a good ten minutes of admin, at least, at the end of the poll; by the time you've loaded your car and got to the Town Hall it's 10.30 and there's a traffic jam to get in, because there are hundreds of polling stations. It's hard to imagine they start counting much before 10.25, even if they're super-efficient.
Thirdly, my local area is much more varied than I expected - far more pensioners than I thought, and far more ethnic minorities (this observation based on people I met today), and far more exotic-sounding surnames than I expected (based on the register as a whole). Also surprising how many people live in flats - they might not account for much land area -so you don't really notice them as much - but there are of course a lot of people in them.
Anyway, back to more relevant matters - very high turnout in Sale. I'd say assuming postal voters voted as enthusiastically as those who turned up in person, turnout here was well over 50%. Difficult to say who that is positive for. A few obvious Brexiters (the guy wearing the union jack braces; the guy double checking which party Nigel Farage was leading now, as he wasn't on the ballot paper); a few obvious remainers (mainly those who I know personally, tbh), but difficult to say if either side was out in unusual force.
I was struck by the number of people who appeared to be making their minds up in the polling booth.
I was struck by the guy in his forties asking what he had to do as he had never voted before.
I was struck by the number of people making sardonic remarks about the lack of queues. Even when we were quite busy, people were saying how quiet it was. I really don't know what people expect - even if everyone on the list voted in person, that would still barely amount to one voter a minute.
I was struck by my wife and daughters all turning up and bringing me snacks and a big hug. Politics is rather unimportant compared to that.
> Turnout in Wyre Forest is DOWN on the last Euro election in 2014. Back then it was 36.15%. 32% this time.
>
> https://www.wyreforestdc.gov.uk/media/209194/LRO-declaration-form25052014.pdf
It will be fascinating to see what happens.
My anecdotes are that people who voted in the last EU elections voted this time; people who didn't, didn't again.
But so far, everyone I've spoken to has changed their vote since 2014. Apart from me!
>
> It doesn’t include postal votes though does it?
It does. It just doesn't include people who handed in postal votes on the day.
https://twitter.com/WyreForestDC/status/1131685961564344322
> > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > @Saltire said:
> > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > The Daily Mail's Survation poll:
> > > > >
> > > > > https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/05/23/22/13882110-7064685-image-a-48_1558646904249.jpg
> > > >
> > > > Wow that would be a shock . Labour on 23 and Lib Dems on only 12 .
> > > >
> > > > Lib Dems polling less for the Euros than for Westminster . That just doesn’t make any sense .
> > > >
> > > > The BP on 31 seems a bit low. One things for sure some polling companies are going to have a shocker .
> > >
> > > I think that because the Remain vote is concentrated is a smaller part of the country (way more Constituencies voted leave than remain) it might be difficult to get a proper balance in the samples. Also I suspect that turnout is going to vary quite a lot over the country depending on how much effort the local parties in each area are willing to put in, and it could be result in bigger differences between each of the polling regions than in the past.
> >
> > I have been predicting Lab. 18.6%.
> >
> > Labour voters have stayed at home today so could be as low as 13% I reckon.
>
> Your man screwed up, right?
2nd referendum anals in PLP fooked it up in North , Midlands and other Brexit areas.
> What decent telly is there at the moment? Feels like the golden age has passed.
Chernobyl is excellent; great cast, a satisfying range of Soviet utility transport and some terrible tailoring. There's even some sardonic CCCP humour among the grimness.
Depictions of authentic Soviet heroism might not be to the average PB taste though.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > > @Saltire said:
> > > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > > The Daily Mail's Survation poll:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/05/23/22/13882110-7064685-image-a-48_1558646904249.jpg
> > > > >
> > > > > Wow that would be a shock . Labour on 23 and Lib Dems on only 12 .
> > > > >
> > > > > Lib Dems polling less for the Euros than for Westminster . That just doesn’t make any sense .
> > > > >
> > > > > The BP on 31 seems a bit low. One things for sure some polling companies are going to have a shocker .
> > > >
> > > > I think that because the Remain vote is concentrated is a smaller part of the country (way more Constituencies voted leave than remain) it might be difficult to get a proper balance in the samples. Also I suspect that turnout is going to vary quite a lot over the country depending on how much effort the local parties in each area are willing to put in, and it could be result in bigger differences between each of the polling regions than in the past.
> > >
> > > I have been predicting Lab. 18.6%.
> > >
> > > Labour voters have stayed at home today so could be as low as 13% I reckon.
> >
> > Your man screwed up, right?
>
> 2nd referendum anals in PLP fooked it up in North , Midlands and other Brexit areas.
Leadership comes with responsibility.
> > @Mortimer said:
> > > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > > Broadwaters
> > > Franche
> > > Greenhil
> > > Mitton
> > > Oldington and Foley Park
> > >
> > > were the wards which elected a UKIP Cllr in 2014 locals in Wyre Forests
> > >
> >
> > And looking at LE 2019 results, higher turnout in Tory wards.
> >
> > This is looking very strong for TBP.
>
> Is it? Or is it just the wealthier wards (Tory wards) are having higher turnout as per usual.
Yes, thats a good point.
BRX 29%
LD 23%
LAB 13%
CON 11%
GRE 11%
CUK 4%
UKIP 4%
SNP 4%
Turnout 39%
Outside chance that LD will top the poll.
> > @Mortimer said:
>
> > > @AndyJS said:
>
> > > > @AndreaParma_82 said:
>
> > > > https://twitter.com/WyreForestDC/status/1131685956350828544
>
>
>
> > >
>
> > > Nice of Wyre Forest to release all this data. I wonder if any other councils are doing the same thing...
>
> >
>
> > I smell a spreadsheet in the offing....
>
>
>
> Can we extrapolate results for the entire country from these two tweets?
>
> Given the only other news is that Theresa May might resign soon it seems as good a topic as any
>
> I expect to be horribly out with this prediction (I thought Miliband would narrowly beat Cameron in 2015 so have a bad track record), but I await my humiliation on Sunday with dignity:
> 30% Brexit
> 22% Lib Dem
> 17% Lab
> 12% Con
> 9% Green
> 3% ChUK
> 2% UKIP
> 5% Other
> Turnout around 45%
You won’t be the only one losing your dignity if that Survation poll is correct . I’ll also be joining you . I was expecting a Labour meltdown in the polls . And the Tories beating the Lib Dems would be a huge shock .
> https://twitter.com/WyreForestDC/status/1131685956350828544
Looks like turnout will be about level with 2014 then when turnout was 35%, if a little down.
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/RP14-32
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > What decent telly is there at the moment? Feels like the golden age has passed.
>
> Chernobyl is excellent; great cast, a satisfying range of Soviet utility transport and some terrible tailoring. There's even some sardonic CCCP humour among the grimness.
>
> Depictions of authentic Soviet heroism might not be to the average PB taste though.
>
I literally fell asleep during the first episode. So slow...
> Turnout in Wyre Forest is DOWN on the last Euro election in 2014. Back then it was 36.15%. 32% this time.
>
> https://www.wyreforestdc.gov.uk/media/209194/LRO-declaration-form25052014.pdf
Wow. That is bad.
> While we're doing predictions, here's mine:
>
> BRX 29%
> LD 23%
> LAB 13%
> CON 11%
> GRE 11%
> CUK 4%
> UKIP 4%
> SNP 4%
>
> Turnout 39%
>
> Outside chance that LD will top the poll.
Are you a betting man? You can get 6/1 for the Brexit Party polling between 25% and 30%.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.158459621
> https://twitter.com/SouthendBC/status/1131690867281059841
Wow another shocker . Isn’t that a strong leave area . Really at this point I have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen on Sunday when the results come out .
> > @AndyJS said:
> > https://twitter.com/SouthendBC/status/1131690867281059841
>
> Wow another shocker . Isn’t that a strong leave area . Really at this point I have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen on Sunday when the results come out .
My current feeling is that turnout is low everywhere.
But that in strong Leave areas it will be leavers motivated to vote. And vice versa in Remain areas.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > https://twitter.com/SouthendBC/status/1131690867281059841
>
> Wow another shocker . Isn’t that a strong leave area . Really at this point I have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen on Sunday when the results come out .
I've been saying the Lib Dems might win this vote. Or at least, the BP vote has been significantly overestimated..
> https://twitter.com/SouthendBC/status/1131690867281059841
So if Why Forest have gone down form 36% to 32% Compared to last EU elections in 2014, does anybody have to hand what turnout in Southend BC was in 2014?
> > @murali_s said:
> > While we're doing predictions, here's mine:
> >
> > BRX 29%
> > LD 23%
> > LAB 13%
> > CON 11%
> > GRE 11%
> > CUK 4%
> > UKIP 4%
> > SNP 4%
> >
> > Turnout 39%
> >
> > Outside chance that LD will top the poll.
>
> Are you a betting man? You can get 6/1 for the Brexit Party polling between 25% and 30%.
>
> https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.158459621
Nah Brexit party higher than that. LDs in teens