I was expecting some of these Brexit areas to post 40% turnouts. That doesn't seem to be happening so far. Will the likes of Oxfordshire and Berkshire post much higher turnouts by comparison?
Why is it a shocker? That is pretty close to the 2014 turnout and if turnout is over 30% in Leave areas the Brexit Party will almost certainly win nationally given the divided Remain vote even if turnout is close to 50% in Remain areas
> @AndyJS said: > > @murali_s said: > > While we're doing predictions, here's mine: > > > > BRX 29% > > LD 23% > > LAB 13% > > CON 11% > > GRE 11% > > CUK 4% > > UKIP 4% > > SNP 4% > > > > Turnout 39% > > > > Outside chance that LD will top the poll. > > Are you a betting man? You can get 6/1 for the Brexit Party polling between 25% and 30%. > > https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.158459621
I have put a fiver on exchange in the 25%-30% range.at over 7s.
> .I think those turnout figures from Wyre Forest are slightly disappointing for Brexit supporters because the district voted 63% Leave and a 32% turnout is less than expected.
>
> It doesn’t include postal votes though does it?
I think (but may be wrong, that it will include most postal votes, but not those handed in on the day.
What is the point of having a postal vote if you hand it in? 🤔
Wow another shocker . Isn’t that a strong leave area . Really at this point I have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen on Sunday when the results come out .
Yes, while Farage is box office, will many buy the CD?
I think that low turnout in Leave and Labour areas is good for Cons and LDs.
I am fairly comfortable with my prediction of last night.
> @oxfordsimon said: > I am a tad confused why we are getting turnout figures following verification tonight. > > I thought we weren't counting until Sunday > > Or are some places counting tonight and then keeping the result secret until 10pm on Sunday?
Isn't verification checking that the numbers of papers in the boxes match the number given out by polling station staff?
Hence you can announce turnout.
But then papers are not counted and put to one side till Sunday evening.
> @Mortimer said: > > @oxfordsimon said: > > I am a tad confused why we are getting turnout figures following verification tonight. > > > > I thought we weren't counting until Sunday > > > > Or are some places counting tonight and then keeping the result secret until 10pm on Sunday? > > Isn't verification checking that the numbers of papers in the boxes match the number given out by polling station staff? > > Hence you can announce turnout. > > But then papers are not counted and put to one side till Sunday evening.
I would have thought it was more secure to keep the boxes intact until such time you can complete the whole process. I am not sure what verification can achieve by splitting it off and doing it now - other than earning the counters some money tonight and the more on Sunday...
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @Mortimer said: > > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > I am a tad confused why we are getting turnout figures following verification tonight. > > > > > > I thought we weren't counting until Sunday > > > > > > Or are some places counting tonight and then keeping the result secret until 10pm on Sunday? > > > > Isn't verification checking that the numbers of papers in the boxes match the number given out by polling station staff? > > > > Hence you can announce turnout. > > > > But then papers are not counted and put to one side till Sunday evening. > > I would have thought it was more secure to keep the boxes intact until such time you can complete the whole process. I am not sure what verification can achieve by splitting it off and doing it now - other than earning the counters some money tonight and the more on Sunday...
> @_Anazina_ said: > > @isam said: > > > .I think those turnout figures from Wyre Forest are slightly disappointing for Brexit supporters because the district voted 63% Leave and a 32% turnout is less than expected. > > > > > > It doesn’t include postal votes though does it? > > > > I think (but may be wrong, that it will include most postal votes, but not those handed in on the day. > > What is the point of having a postal vote if you hand it in? 🤔
I was in that situation ones, I was expecting to be out of the contrary, but plans changed and ended up getting back on the day so took it to town hall, rater than risk postal delay. I think you can had it in to any poling station in the district, but may be worng.
> @Mortimer said: > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > @Mortimer said: > > > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > > I am a tad confused why we are getting turnout figures following verification tonight. > > > > > > > > I thought we weren't counting until Sunday > > > > > > > > Or are some places counting tonight and then keeping the result secret until 10pm on Sunday? > > > > > > Isn't verification checking that the numbers of papers in the boxes match the number given out by polling station staff? > > > > > > Hence you can announce turnout. > > > > > > But then papers are not counted and put to one side till Sunday evening. > > > > I would have thought it was more secure to keep the boxes intact until such time you can complete the whole process. I am not sure what verification can achieve by splitting it off and doing it now - other than earning the counters some money tonight and the more on Sunday... > > It makes the Sunday night counts quicker. > > I guess staff are on higher pay for Sundays...
It is all faintly ludicrous. But that is true about much of our electoral system
Turnout numbers suggest these euro elections have been massively overhyped. Clearly nobody gives a toss about the Brexit twerps or anyone else. Oh well! Good night.
> @isam said: > If anyone can workout what these turnout numbers mean, pls tell as the betting markets are still open, and the fav is 1.03!
I think we'd need to have several dozen of these to begin to draw any decent guesses from it, and a good slew of London/Remainland areas too. Obviously Farage would rather go to bed with news of record turnout in Leave areas but I don't think we can draw much from the handful we've heard atm. My guess is Remain areas will also be at pretty much 2014 levels and the turnout will be low 30s. The polls are pretty variable anyway, but I suspect that's the unknown right now - not differential turnout.
Or maybe these handful are the first sign of a huge upset. But they are a pretty small sign until we get considerably more data.
> @_Anazina_ said: > Turnout numbers suggest these euro elections have been massively overhyped. Clearly nobody gives a toss about the Brexit twerps or anyone else. Oh well! Good night.
> @_Anazina_ said: > Turnout numbers suggest these euro elections have been massively overhyped. Clearly nobody gives a toss about the Brexit twerps or anyone else. Oh well! Good night.
I suspect the Locals so recently has caused some voter fatigue. Had we not planned the Euros so late they'd have been combined.
> @AndyJS said: > Looks like turnout is down slightly in Harlow, another strong Brexit area. > > We really need to see some figures from places like South Oxfordshire or Bath which voted heavily Remain.
Harlow is also the strongest Labour area in Essex so not great for Corbyn
> > > I am a tad confused why we are getting turnout figures following verification tonight.
> > >
> > > I thought we weren't counting until Sunday
> > >
> > > Or are some places counting tonight and then keeping the result secret until 10pm on Sunday?
> >
> > Isn't verification checking that the numbers of papers in the boxes match the number given out by polling station staff?
> >
> > Hence you can announce turnout.
> >
> > But then papers are not counted and put to one side till Sunday evening.
>
> I would have thought it was more secure to keep the boxes intact until such time you can complete the whole process. I am not sure what verification can achieve by splitting it off and doing it now - other than earning the counters some money tonight and the more on Sunday...
It makes the Sunday night counts quicker.
I guess staff are on higher pay for Sundays...
Have to wonder who would volunteer for counting loads of grubby forms on a Bank Holiday Sunday evening!
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @Mortimer said: > > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > I am a tad confused why we are getting turnout figures following verification tonight. > > > > > > I thought we weren't counting until Sunday > > > > > > Or are some places counting tonight and then keeping the result secret until 10pm on Sunday? > > > > Isn't verification checking that the numbers of papers in the boxes match the number given out by polling station staff? > > > > Hence you can announce turnout. > > > > But then papers are not counted and put to one side till Sunday evening. > > I would have thought it was more secure to keep the boxes intact until such time you can complete the whole process. I am not sure what verification can achieve by splitting it off and doing it now - other than earning the counters some money tonight and the more on Sunday...
I assume there are scrutineers from the political parties watching the verification process, and the experienced ones are usually able to get a rough idea of how the parties have done. They may have been sworn to secrecy until Sunday night though.
> @MaxPB said: > Low turnout surely helps BP and Con.
I actually think it's not 100% clear. On the one hand I assume you mean that older people vote more reliably, and BP and Con do better among those. On the other hand TBP especially is fishing from the Leave pool, and as well as being older those voters have a lot of previously non-voters is, so maybe they are the softest turnout?
Weirdly, I wonder if the LDs don't also have a paradox. Young voters are returning to them, so high turnout suggests more youngsters who normally don't turn out is good. But they also have a good local campaign infrastructure in a lot of places, so maybe they get their postal voters to vote more often than others (so low turnout helps them as others aren't voting but they still are).
In short, I see (what I assume is) your point, but I think it's too hard to judge from just turnout. It's a cliche but it's true - it all depends who is turning out.
I was expecting some of these Brexit areas to post 40% turnouts. That doesn't seem to be happening so far. Will the likes of Oxfordshire and Berkshire post much higher turnouts by comparison?
Turnout in the next Oxfordshire village along from us was exactly 50%. That compares with 40% typically in the locals. It leans Remain; it could plausibly be David Cameron's polling station though I think probably not (ward boundaries are a bit weird here). I don't have a number for our town but I could believe 50% or higher.
> @AndyJS said: > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > @Mortimer said: > > > > @oxfordsimon said: > > > > I am a tad confused why we are getting turnout figures following verification tonight. > > > > > > > > I thought we weren't counting until Sunday > > > > > > > > Or are some places counting tonight and then keeping the result secret until 10pm on Sunday? > > > > > > Isn't verification checking that the numbers of papers in the boxes match the number given out by polling station staff? > > > > > > Hence you can announce turnout. > > > > > > But then papers are not counted and put to one side till Sunday evening. > > > > I would have thought it was more secure to keep the boxes intact until such time you can complete the whole process. I am not sure what verification can achieve by splitting it off and doing it now - other than earning the counters some money tonight and the more on Sunday... > > I assume there are scrutineers from the political parties watching the verification process, and the experienced ones are usually able to get a rough idea of how the parties have done. They may have been sworn to secrecy until Sunday night though.
Yep - there would be counting agents from political parties at the verifications.
> @AndreaParma_82 said: > Projections from 590 polling places show that PS and PVV may be under the 3.85% threshold while Party for Animals may get in. In touch and go. Dutch Labour is confirmed in the lead, will even get a 6th seat if PS and PVV get 0
Pretty startling if PVV (Wilders) is wiped out - I know that the more intellectually respectable FvD have eclipsed him, but I remember when people here were predicting he'd come first. The PS (leftish Euroscceptics) used to do well too.
Of course i'm pleased if the Party of the Animals makes it!
guessing 1 LD, 3 Green, 1 SNP, 3 from NI, all reelection and perhaps 10-20 Lab, and 1-10 Con, take out those not standing, I have not looked up, it will be a very new delegation from the UK
> @murali_s said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > Im still waiting for the tories to launch their euro elections campaign.... > > I'm sure the Tories will do better in the EU elections next time round (i.e. in 2024).
If there are elections in 2024, they might not in existence by then...
East Cambridgeshire council in with its turnout figures and also under 40%, it was slightly more Remain than the UK average with 50.9% Leave and 49.1% Remain which suggests nationally turnout will be under 40% and not much different from 2014
I abstained. As a 'moderate' leaver (reason is I don't like the EU as an institution and think it is destined to fail) I considered lending my vote to the Brexit Party but couldn't bring myself to do it in the end.
My prediction is TBP will win easily with perhaps almost 40% of the vote. This is on the basis that their vote will probably turn out largely.
Lib Dems will be 2nd as remainers have coalesced around them.
Labour will fall short of expectation as even their tribal die hards will stay at home in large numbers.
Cons will be a disaster but not quite as bad as some predict - they might scrape double figures in terms of percentage and might not be that far behind Labour.
Others will pick up the scraps but a bad result for Change UK
> @Quincel said: > Here's my final opinion on the turnout stats: It's sad how low they are.
On the other hand the turnout at the 1999 Euro elections was only 24% overall, which was the last time a Euro election was held a few weeks after local elections. People don't usually like having to vote twice in a short time.
2 Greens and 1 from NI have retired. Farage, Gill and Jonathan Bullock will be re-elected for Brexit Party. Plaid woman should also get it in again.
> @BigRich said: > In total how many UK MEPs will be reelected? > > guessing 1 LD, 3 Green, 1 SNP, 3 from NI, all reelection and perhaps 10-20 Lab, and 1-10 Con, take out those not standing, I have not looked up, it will be a very new delegation from the UK
> @HYUFD said: > East Cambridgeshire council in with its turnout figures and also under 40%, it was slightly more Remain than the UK average with 50.9% Leave and 49.1% Remain which suggests nationally turnout will be under 40% and not much different from 2014 > > https://twitter.com/EastCambs/status/1131696530979790850?s=20
It was 32% last time in East Cambridgeshire. This is the first place that's had a vaguely significant increase from 2014. It could be enthusiasm from the Remainers in the Cambridge area.
> @KentRising said: > > @Quincel said: > > Here's my final opinion on the turnout stats: It's sad how low they are. > > But is it surprising? People aren't stupid. They know when their vote doesn't matter a damn. These are EU parliamentary elections we're talking about.
Funnily enough I see it the exact opposite. These elections may be about to dislodge a Prime Minister who has held on for two years since everyone began assuming she'd leave in weeks and change our Brexit future quite dramatically. The public's voting has had quite a dramatic effect in pretty much every election for the last few years.
Presumably these turnout numbers will include spoiled ballots, so assuming substantially more genitals are being drawn on voting slips than last time, that implies fewer votes on the same number of voters.
> @AndyJS said: > > @HYUFD said: > > East Cambridgeshire council in with its turnout figures and also under 40%, it was slightly more Remain than the UK average with 50.9% Leave and 49.1% Remain which suggests nationally turnout will be under 40% and not much different from 2014 > > > > https://twitter.com/EastCambs/status/1131696530979790850?s=20 > > It was 32% last time in East Cambridgeshire. This is the first place that's had a vaguely significant increase from 2014. It could be enthusiasm from the Remainers in the Cambridge area.
> @AndyJS said: > > @Quincel said: > > Here's my final opinion on the turnout stats: It's sad how low they are. > > On the other hand the turnout at the 1999 Euro elections was only 24% overall, which was the last time a Euro election was held a few weeks after local elections. People don't usually like having to vote twice in a short time.
Yes but as Local elections are only held in some areas each year, it does prevent a possible distortion.
> > Im still waiting for the tories to launch their euro elections campaign....
>
> I'm sure the Tories will do better in the EU elections next time round (i.e. in 2024).
If there are elections in 2024, they might not in existence by then...
This post written by somebody with no feel for history. “This time it’s different...”*
*The ERG mob are a triumph of principle over pragmatism. But it’s not the first time - look at the resignation of Thorneycroft and his Treasury team (including the sainted racist).
Anecdata from my side - Surrey Labour *members* seem to have stayed loyal although several said they had been reluctant - partly they were still glowing from electoral success in the locals and didn't want to spoil it. But several said that they had normally Labour friends who were going LD or Green, and I do think the LDs will do very well.
An old apolitical friend back in Nottingham says she voted UKIP, and she's not even a Leave supporter and doesn't care about immigrants - she just wanted to protest that everyone was rubbish by voting for the smallest party. Never assume every voter is entirely judicious and rational...
Lincoln (see down thread) did. There was only a 2% increase there.
However, I would expect significant increases in turnout in 2019 in areas which had no local elections in 2014, but a lower level of turnout increase in areas which did have local elections on the same day as the Euros in 2014.
> @edmundintokyo said: > Presumably these turnout numbers will include spoiled ballots, so assuming substantially more genitals are being drawn on voting slips than last time, that implies fewer votes on the same number of voters.
I won't be the first person to make the joke about the LDs benefiting from any surge of bollocks on ballots...
Low turnout figures in strong leave areas is probably indicative of the main parties vote staying at home and is unlikely to dent TBP. It will in fact result in an even higher percentage for them that if turnout had been higher
Presumably turnout will include spoiled ballots, so assuming substantially more genitals are being drawn on voting slips than last time, that implies fewer votes on the same turnout.
While discussing how to spoil ballots is as perennial PB topic to rival pizza toppings or the Punic wars, in practice do many people bother?
Low turnout figures in strong leave areas is probably indicative of the main parties vote staying at home and is unlikely to dent TBP. It will in fact result in an even higher percentage for them that if turnout had been higher
There are still significant ‘Remain’ votes in ‘Leave’ areas. Who’s more motivated?
> @NickPalmer said: > Anecdata from my side - Surrey Labour *members* seem to have stayed loyal although several said they had been reluctant - partly they were still glowing from electoral success in the locals and didn't want to spoil it. But several said that they had normally Labour friends who were going LD or Green, and I do think the LDs will do very well. > > An old apolitical friend back in Nottingham says she voted UKIP, and she's not even a Leave supporter and doesn't care about immigrants - she just wanted to protest that everyone was rubbish by voting for the smallest party. Never assume every voter is entirely judicious and rational...
Presumably Labour branches in Surrey are somewhat on the small side?
> @NickPalmer said: > Anecdata from my side - Surrey Labour *members* seem to have stayed loyal although several said they had been reluctant - partly they were still glowing from electoral success in the locals and didn't want to spoil it. But several said that they had normally Labour friends who were going LD or Green, and I do think the LDs will do very well. > > An old apolitical friend back in Nottingham says she voted UKIP, and she's not even a Leave supporter and doesn't care about immigrants - she just wanted to protest that everyone was rubbish by voting for the smallest party. Never assume every voter is entirely judicious and rational...
If Corbyn is only just squeaking active members he has a problem.
> @Foxy said: > Presumably turnout will include spoiled ballots, so assuming substantially more genitals are being drawn on voting slips than last time, that implies fewer votes on the same turnout. > > While discussing how to spoil ballots is as perennial PB topic to rival pizza toppings or the Punic wars, in practice do many people bother?
> @Foxy said: > Presumably turnout will include spoiled ballots, so assuming substantially more genitals are being drawn on voting slips than last time, that implies fewer votes on the same turnout. > > While discussing how to spoil ballots is as perennial PB topic to rival pizza toppings or the Punic wars, in practice do many people bother?
> @Foxy said: > Presumably turnout will include spoiled ballots, so assuming substantially more genitals are being drawn on voting slips than last time, that implies fewer votes on the same turnout. > > While discussing how to spoil ballots is as perennial PB topic to rival pizza toppings or the Punic wars, in practice do many people bother?
Page 4 of this PDF from the Electoral Commission says 0.2% of completed ballots were spoilt in 2017. So not enough to change anything other than razor-thin margins. Much higher (2.4%) for postal votes rejected, interestingly (looks like they do more checks than I'd thought) - but still unlikely to swing a huge amount given we're no-where near most votes being postal even at the Euros.
> @AndyJS said: > > @HYUFD said: > > East Cambridgeshire council in with its turnout figures and also under 40%, it was slightly more Remain than the UK average with 50.9% Leave and 49.1% Remain which suggests nationally turnout will be under 40% and not much different from 2014 > > > > https://twitter.com/EastCambs/status/1131696530979790850?s=20 > > It was 32% last time in East Cambridgeshire. This is the first place that's had a vaguely significant increase from 2014. It could be enthusiasm from the Remainers in the Cambridge area.
A 'significant increase' would be well over 40%, turnout of 38% in a more Remain area is nowhere near significant enough to give a Remain party a chance of coming first (and of course E Cambridgeshire still voted Leave, even if narrowly).
For that it would need to have been close to 50% turnout in Remain areas and no more than 25% turnout in Leave areas
> @NickPalmer said: > Anecdata from my side - Surrey Labour *members* seem to have stayed loyal although several said they had been reluctant - partly they were still glowing from electoral success in the locals and didn't want to spoil it. But several said that they had normally Labour friends who were going LD or Green, and I do think the LDs will do very well. > > An old apolitical friend back in Nottingham says she voted UKIP, and she's not even a Leave supporter and doesn't care about immigrants - she just wanted to protest that everyone was rubbish by voting for the smallest party. Never assume every voter is entirely judicious and rational...
With respect to your anecdotal evidence Nick, I suspect most of your friends and contacts are highly politically motivated compared to your average Joe. But thanks for sharing anyway
Question on the turnout. Looks like it is up on last time - are there also more people registered to vote after voter registration drives for Brexit and 2017 elections?
From my discussions with a Presiding Officer at 9.45pm, I understand that Verification is taking place tonight. We may have some information re-turnout by breakfast!
> @Greenwich_Floater said: > Low turnout figures in strong leave areas is probably indicative of the main parties vote staying at home and is unlikely to dent TBP. It will in fact result in an even higher percentage for them that if turnout had been higher
That's one hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is that if turnout is low in Leave areas and high(er) in Remain areas, the LDs and Greens will do well.
Personally I feel low turnout in Leave areas will mean that the Brexit Party will underperform vs. expectation.
> @Gallowgate said: > Low turnout figures in strong leave areas is probably indicative of the main parties vote staying at home and is unlikely to dent TBP. It will in fact result in an even higher percentage for them that if turnout had been higher > > There are still significant ‘Remain’ votes in ‘Leave’ areas. Who’s more motivated?
If I had to put money on it, I would say TBP by quite a margin
> @Jonathan said: > > @NickPalmer said: > > Anecdata from my side - Surrey Labour *members* seem to have stayed loyal although several said they had been reluctant - partly they were still glowing from electoral success in the locals and didn't want to spoil it. But several said that they had normally Labour friends who were going LD or Green, and I do think the LDs will do very well. > > > > An old apolitical friend back in Nottingham says she voted UKIP, and she's not even a Leave supporter and doesn't care about immigrants - she just wanted to protest that everyone was rubbish by voting for the smallest party. Never assume every voter is entirely judicious and rational... > > If Corbyn is only just squeaking active members he has a problem. >
Would a Labour member be willing to openly admit to another Labour member that they themselves had not voted Labour?
> @KentRising said: > > @Quincel said: > > Here's my final opinion on the turnout stats: It's sad how low they are. > > But is it surprising? People aren't stupid. They know when their vote doesn't matter a damn. These are EU parliamentary elections we're talking about.
Which we should not be having anyway as we were supposed to have Brexited by now
> @murali_s said: > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > Low turnout figures in strong leave areas is probably indicative of the main parties vote staying at home and is unlikely to dent TBP. It will in fact result in an even higher percentage for them that if turnout had been higher > > That's one hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is that if turnout is low in Leave areas and high(er) in Remain areas, the LDs and Greens will do well. > > Personally I feel low turnout in Leave areas will mean that the Brexit Party will underperform vs. expectation.
That might be true, however they would have been expected to perform well in those areas anyway, so they could still end up with a large chunk of the vote.
> @Mortimer said: > > @NickPalmer said: > > Anecdata from my side - Surrey Labour *members* seem to have stayed loyal although several said they had been reluctant - partly they were still glowing from electoral success in the locals and didn't want to spoil it. But several said that they had normally Labour friends who were going LD or Green, and I do think the LDs will do very well. > > > > An old apolitical friend back in Nottingham says she voted UKIP, and she's not even a Leave supporter and doesn't care about immigrants - she just wanted to protest that everyone was rubbish by voting for the smallest party. Never assume every voter is entirely judicious and rational... > > Presumably Labour branches in Surrey are somewhat on the small side?
Don't know in general - we have 480 members in SW Surrey, which is a lot more than a few years ago, though it's been stationary for a year or so. But as noted below, merely squeaking members is not great, and my circle is mostly pretty motivated. People at work are all over the spectrum, though, and only a couple seemed especially interested.
> @murali_s said: > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > Low turnout figures in strong leave areas is probably indicative of the main parties vote staying at home and is unlikely to dent TBP. It will in fact result in an even higher percentage for them that if turnout had been higher > > That's one hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is that if turnout is low in Leave areas and high(er) in Remain areas, the LDs and Greens will do well. > > Personally I feel low turnout in Leave areas will mean that the Brexit Party will underperform vs. expectation.
30-35% turnout in Leave areas is average turnout for Euro elections not low turnout, that would be 20-25%. In the 1999 Euro elections UK turnout was just 24%
> @Greenwich_Floater said: > > @murali_s said: > > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > Low turnout figures in strong leave areas is probably indicative of the main parties vote staying at home and is unlikely to dent TBP. It will in fact result in an even higher percentage for them that if turnout had been higher > > > > That's one hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is that if turnout is low in Leave areas and high(er) in Remain areas, the LDs and Greens will do well. > > > > Personally I feel low turnout in Leave areas will mean that the Brexit Party will underperform vs. expectation. > > That might be true, however they would have been expected to perform well in those areas anyway, so they could still end up with a large chunk of the vote.
One issue is that we don't have particularly good baselines from the polling, which is quite variable. If TBP get 31% of the vote it might look disappointing after so many polls ended with them surging to 35%+, but maybe those polls were wrong and without them we'd have thought anything above 30% (and likely a win) would be remarkable.
What I'm trying to get at is, if TBP get less than we expected we won't really know if they had a bad day or the polls were always wrong and they performed fine on the day.
> @Nemtynakht said: > Question on the turnout. Looks like it is up on last time - are there also more people registered to vote after voter registration drives for Brexit and 2017 elections?
Yes, but, there has also been quite a lot of work to take, 'inaccurate' and out of date names of the voter lists, so these may be smaller and as a result the same number of voters turning up would look like a higher % turnout.
if % turnout changes a lot or is a different pattern in some parts of the contrary to others it could mean somethings if its just 2-3% more across the board with a few outliers, it may not mean anything.
I would have organised a spreadsheet if I'd known the councils would be releasing so much turnout information tonight. I can't remember them doing so last time.
Comments
> Turnout in Wyre Forest is DOWN on the last Euro election in 2014. Back then it was 36.15%. 32% this time.
>
> https://www.wyreforestdc.gov.uk/media/209194/LRO-declaration-form25052014.pdf
There were local elections on the same day as the Euros in Wyre Forest in 2014. Not so today.
> https://twitter.com/lincolncouncil/status/1131692760392785920
That’s abysmal . Oh dear the polling companies have really screwed up . The turnout figures are going to be miles out .
> > @AndyJS said:
> > https://twitter.com/SouthendBC/status/1131690867281059841
>
> So if Why Forest have gone down form 36% to 32% Compared to last EU elections in 2014, does anybody have to hand what turnout in Southend BC was in 2014?
>
It was exactly the same — 33.2%
All the data is available on this page, via a download:
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/RP14-32
I thought we weren't counting until Sunday
Or are some places counting tonight and then keeping the result secret until 10pm on Sunday?
> > @AndyJS said:
> > https://twitter.com/SouthendBC/status/1131690867281059841
>
> Wow another shocker . Isn’t that a strong leave area . Really at this point I have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen on Sunday when the results come out .
Why is it a shocker? That is pretty close to the 2014 turnout and if turnout is over 30% in Leave areas the Brexit Party will almost certainly win nationally given the divided Remain vote even if turnout is close to 50% in Remain areas
> > @murali_s said:
> > While we're doing predictions, here's mine:
> >
> > BRX 29%
> > LD 23%
> > LAB 13%
> > CON 11%
> > GRE 11%
> > CUK 4%
> > UKIP 4%
> > SNP 4%
> >
> > Turnout 39%
> >
> > Outside chance that LD will top the poll.
>
> Are you a betting man? You can get 6/1 for the Brexit Party polling between 25% and 30%.
>
> https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.158459621
I have put a fiver on exchange in the 25%-30% range.at over 7s.
I think that low turnout in Leave and Labour areas is good for Cons and LDs.
I am fairly comfortable with my prediction of last night.
> I am a tad confused why we are getting turnout figures following verification tonight.
>
> I thought we weren't counting until Sunday
>
> Or are some places counting tonight and then keeping the result secret until 10pm on Sunday?
Isn't verification checking that the numbers of papers in the boxes match the number given out by polling station staff?
Hence you can announce turnout.
But then papers are not counted and put to one side till Sunday evening.
> > @BigRich said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > https://twitter.com/SouthendBC/status/1131690867281059841
> >
> > So if Why Forest have gone down form 36% to 32% Compared to last EU elections in 2014, does anybody have to hand what turnout in Southend BC was in 2014?
> >
>
> It was exactly the same — 33.2%
>
> All the data is available on this page, via a download:
>
> https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/RP14-32
Many thanks AndyJS
> https://twitter.com/lincolncouncil/status/1131692760392785920
It was 30.5% last time.
> > @oxfordsimon said:
> > I am a tad confused why we are getting turnout figures following verification tonight.
> >
> > I thought we weren't counting until Sunday
> >
> > Or are some places counting tonight and then keeping the result secret until 10pm on Sunday?
>
> Isn't verification checking that the numbers of papers in the boxes match the number given out by polling station staff?
>
> Hence you can announce turnout.
>
> But then papers are not counted and put to one side till Sunday evening.
I would have thought it was more secure to keep the boxes intact until such time you can complete the whole process. I am not sure what verification can achieve by splitting it off and doing it now - other than earning the counters some money tonight and the more on Sunday...
> > @Mortimer said:
> > > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > I am a tad confused why we are getting turnout figures following verification tonight.
> > >
> > > I thought we weren't counting until Sunday
> > >
> > > Or are some places counting tonight and then keeping the result secret until 10pm on Sunday?
> >
> > Isn't verification checking that the numbers of papers in the boxes match the number given out by polling station staff?
> >
> > Hence you can announce turnout.
> >
> > But then papers are not counted and put to one side till Sunday evening.
>
> I would have thought it was more secure to keep the boxes intact until such time you can complete the whole process. I am not sure what verification can achieve by splitting it off and doing it now - other than earning the counters some money tonight and the more on Sunday...
It makes the Sunday night counts quicker.
I guess staff are on higher pay for Sundays...
> > @isam said:
>
> > .I think those turnout figures from Wyre Forest are slightly disappointing for Brexit supporters because the district voted 63% Leave and a 32% turnout is less than expected.
>
> >
>
> > It doesn’t include postal votes though does it?
>
>
>
> I think (but may be wrong, that it will include most postal votes, but not those handed in on the day.
>
> What is the point of having a postal vote if you hand it in? 🤔
I was in that situation ones, I was expecting to be out of the contrary, but plans changed and ended up getting back on the day so took it to town hall, rater than risk postal delay. I think you can had it in to any poling station in the district, but may be worng.
> > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > @Mortimer said:
> > > > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > > I am a tad confused why we are getting turnout figures following verification tonight.
> > > >
> > > > I thought we weren't counting until Sunday
> > > >
> > > > Or are some places counting tonight and then keeping the result secret until 10pm on Sunday?
> > >
> > > Isn't verification checking that the numbers of papers in the boxes match the number given out by polling station staff?
> > >
> > > Hence you can announce turnout.
> > >
> > > But then papers are not counted and put to one side till Sunday evening.
> >
> > I would have thought it was more secure to keep the boxes intact until such time you can complete the whole process. I am not sure what verification can achieve by splitting it off and doing it now - other than earning the counters some money tonight and the more on Sunday...
>
> It makes the Sunday night counts quicker.
>
> I guess staff are on higher pay for Sundays...
It is all faintly ludicrous. But that is true about much of our electoral system
We really need to see some figures from places like South Oxfordshire or Bath which voted heavily Remain.
51-49 Leave in the ref
> If anyone can workout what these turnout numbers mean, pls tell as the betting markets are still open, and the fav is 1.03!
I think we'd need to have several dozen of these to begin to draw any decent guesses from it, and a good slew of London/Remainland areas too. Obviously Farage would rather go to bed with news of record turnout in Leave areas but I don't think we can draw much from the handful we've heard atm. My guess is Remain areas will also be at pretty much 2014 levels and the turnout will be low 30s. The polls are pretty variable anyway, but I suspect that's the unknown right now - not differential turnout.
Or maybe these handful are the first sign of a huge upset. But they are a pretty small sign until we get considerably more data.
>
> > https://twitter.com/SouthendBC/status/1131690867281059841
>
Slightly up on the 31.74% in the locals this month.
https://www.engadget.com/2019/05/22/google-duplex-is-made-of-people/
> Turnout numbers suggest these euro elections have been massively overhyped. Clearly nobody gives a toss about the Brexit twerps or anyone else. Oh well! Good night.
> @_Anazina_ said:
> Turnout numbers suggest these euro elections have been massively overhyped. Clearly nobody gives a toss about the Brexit twerps or anyone else. Oh well! Good night.
I suspect the Locals so recently has caused some voter fatigue. Had we not planned the Euros so late they'd have been combined.
> Looks like turnout is down slightly in Harlow, another strong Brexit area.
>
> We really need to see some figures from places like South Oxfordshire or Bath which voted heavily Remain.
Harlow is also the strongest Labour area in Essex so not great for Corbyn
https://www.wired.com/story/las-vegas-orders-up-boring-company-loop/
> Low turnout surely helps BP and Con.
Yes but it could be that turnout might vary widely between areas . So far we’ve just had turnout figures from more Leave areas .
> > @Mortimer said:
> > > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > I am a tad confused why we are getting turnout figures following verification tonight.
> > >
> > > I thought we weren't counting until Sunday
> > >
> > > Or are some places counting tonight and then keeping the result secret until 10pm on Sunday?
> >
> > Isn't verification checking that the numbers of papers in the boxes match the number given out by polling station staff?
> >
> > Hence you can announce turnout.
> >
> > But then papers are not counted and put to one side till Sunday evening.
>
> I would have thought it was more secure to keep the boxes intact until such time you can complete the whole process. I am not sure what verification can achieve by splitting it off and doing it now - other than earning the counters some money tonight and the more on Sunday...
I assume there are scrutineers from the political parties watching the verification process, and the experienced ones are usually able to get a rough idea of how the parties have done. They may have been sworn to secrecy until Sunday night though.
> Low turnout surely helps BP and Con.
I only know a couple of Tory voters who voted Con today...
> https://twitter.com/eastcambs/status/1131696530979790850
>
>
>
> 51-49 Leave in the ref
That's a significant increase from 32% last time. Good for Remain parties, possibly.
> Low turnout surely helps BP and Con.
I actually think it's not 100% clear. On the one hand I assume you mean that older people vote more reliably, and BP and Con do better among those. On the other hand TBP especially is fishing from the Leave pool, and as well as being older those voters have a lot of previously non-voters is, so maybe they are the softest turnout?
Weirdly, I wonder if the LDs don't also have a paradox. Young voters are returning to them, so high turnout suggests more youngsters who normally don't turn out is good. But they also have a good local campaign infrastructure in a lot of places, so maybe they get their postal voters to vote more often than others (so low turnout helps them as others aren't voting but they still are).
In short, I see (what I assume is) your point, but I think it's too hard to judge from just turnout. It's a cliche but it's true - it all depends who is turning out.
> > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > @Mortimer said:
> > > > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > > I am a tad confused why we are getting turnout figures following verification tonight.
> > > >
> > > > I thought we weren't counting until Sunday
> > > >
> > > > Or are some places counting tonight and then keeping the result secret until 10pm on Sunday?
> > >
> > > Isn't verification checking that the numbers of papers in the boxes match the number given out by polling station staff?
> > >
> > > Hence you can announce turnout.
> > >
> > > But then papers are not counted and put to one side till Sunday evening.
> >
> > I would have thought it was more secure to keep the boxes intact until such time you can complete the whole process. I am not sure what verification can achieve by splitting it off and doing it now - other than earning the counters some money tonight and the more on Sunday...
>
> I assume there are scrutineers from the political parties watching the verification process, and the experienced ones are usually able to get a rough idea of how the parties have done. They may have been sworn to secrecy until Sunday night though.
Yep - there would be counting agents from political parties at the verifications.
> Projections from 590 polling places show that PS and PVV may be under the 3.85% threshold while Party for Animals may get in. In touch and go. Dutch Labour is confirmed in the lead, will even get a 6th seat if PS and PVV get 0
Pretty startling if PVV (Wilders) is wiped out - I know that the more intellectually respectable FvD have eclipsed him, but I remember when people here were predicting he'd come first. The PS (leftish Euroscceptics) used to do well too.
Of course i'm pleased if the Party of the Animals makes it!
> Im still waiting for the tories to launch their euro elections campaign....
I'm sure the Tories will do better in the EU elections next time round (i.e. in 2024).
> https://twitter.com/danbeardunison/status/1131697865762508800
27.1% in 2014.
Tendring - St Osyth
Ind 856
Ind 850
Con 437
Con 430
Lab 177
guessing 1 LD, 3 Green, 1 SNP, 3 from NI, all reelection and perhaps 10-20 Lab, and 1-10 Con, take out those not standing, I have not looked up, it will be a very new delegation from the UK
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > Im still waiting for the tories to launch their euro elections campaign....
>
> I'm sure the Tories will do better in the EU elections next time round (i.e. in 2024).
If there are elections in 2024, they might not in existence by then...
> Here's my final opinion on the turnout stats: It's sad how low they are.
But is it surprising? People aren't stupid. They know when their vote doesn't matter a damn. These are EU parliamentary elections we're talking about.
> https://twitter.com/cllrgbutland/status/1131699083964571649
To be pedantic, I think he means the Braintree District Council area.
https://twitter.com/EastCambs/status/1131696530979790850?s=20
My prediction is TBP will win easily with perhaps almost 40% of the vote. This is on the basis that their vote will probably turn out largely.
Lib Dems will be 2nd as remainers have coalesced around them.
Labour will fall short of expectation as even their tribal die hards will stay at home in large numbers.
Cons will be a disaster but not quite as bad as some predict - they might scrape double figures in terms of percentage and might not be that far behind Labour.
Others will pick up the scraps but a bad result for Change UK
> https://twitter.com/cllrgbutland/status/1131699083964571649
34% in 2014, hardly any change.
> Here's my final opinion on the turnout stats: It's sad how low they are.
On the other hand the turnout at the 1999 Euro elections was only 24% overall, which was the last time a Euro election was held a few weeks after local elections. People don't usually like having to vote twice in a short time.
> @BigRich said:
> In total how many UK MEPs will be reelected?
>
> guessing 1 LD, 3 Green, 1 SNP, 3 from NI, all reelection and perhaps 10-20 Lab, and 1-10 Con, take out those not standing, I have not looked up, it will be a very new delegation from the UK
> East Cambridgeshire council in with its turnout figures and also under 40%, it was slightly more Remain than the UK average with 50.9% Leave and 49.1% Remain which suggests nationally turnout will be under 40% and not much different from 2014
>
> https://twitter.com/EastCambs/status/1131696530979790850?s=20
It was 32% last time in East Cambridgeshire. This is the first place that's had a vaguely significant increase from 2014. It could be enthusiasm from the Remainers in the Cambridge area.
> > @Quincel said:
> > Here's my final opinion on the turnout stats: It's sad how low they are.
>
> But is it surprising? People aren't stupid. They know when their vote doesn't matter a damn. These are EU parliamentary elections we're talking about.
Funnily enough I see it the exact opposite. These elections may be about to dislodge a Prime Minister who has held on for two years since everyone began assuming she'd leave in weeks and change our Brexit future quite dramatically. The public's voting has had quite a dramatic effect in pretty much every election for the last few years.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > East Cambridgeshire council in with its turnout figures and also under 40%, it was slightly more Remain than the UK average with 50.9% Leave and 49.1% Remain which suggests nationally turnout will be under 40% and not much different from 2014
> >
> > https://twitter.com/EastCambs/status/1131696530979790850?s=20
>
> It was 32% last time in East Cambridgeshire. This is the first place that's had a vaguely significant increase from 2014. It could be enthusiasm from the Remainers in the Cambridge area.
Yes. I suspect so.
> > @Quincel said:
> > Here's my final opinion on the turnout stats: It's sad how low they are.
>
> On the other hand the turnout at the 1999 Euro elections was only 24% overall, which was the last time a Euro election was held a few weeks after local elections. People don't usually like having to vote twice in a short time.
Yes but as Local elections are only held in some areas each year, it does prevent a possible distortion.
*The ERG mob are a triumph of principle over pragmatism. But it’s not the first time - look at the resignation of Thorneycroft and his Treasury team (including the sainted racist).
An old apolitical friend back in Nottingham says she voted UKIP, and she's not even a Leave supporter and doesn't care about immigrants - she just wanted to protest that everyone was rubbish by voting for the smallest party. Never assume every voter is entirely judicious and rational...
> > @isam said:
> > https://twitter.com/eastcambs/status/1131696530979790850
> >
> >
> >
> > 51-49 Leave in the ref
>
> That's a significant increase from 32% last time. Good for Remain parties, possibly.
East Cambs didn't have local elections in 2014.
Lincoln (see down thread) did. There was only a 2% increase there.
However, I would expect significant increases in turnout in 2019 in areas which had no local elections in 2014, but a lower level of turnout increase in areas which did have local elections on the same day as the Euros in 2014.
> Presumably these turnout numbers will include spoiled ballots, so assuming substantially more genitals are being drawn on voting slips than last time, that implies fewer votes on the same number of voters.
I won't be the first person to make the joke about the LDs benefiting from any surge of bollocks on ballots...
> Anecdata from my side - Surrey Labour *members* seem to have stayed loyal although several said they had been reluctant - partly they were still glowing from electoral success in the locals and didn't want to spoil it. But several said that they had normally Labour friends who were going LD or Green, and I do think the LDs will do very well.
>
> An old apolitical friend back in Nottingham says she voted UKIP, and she's not even a Leave supporter and doesn't care about immigrants - she just wanted to protest that everyone was rubbish by voting for the smallest party. Never assume every voter is entirely judicious and rational...
Presumably Labour branches in Surrey are somewhat on the small side?
> Anecdata from my side - Surrey Labour *members* seem to have stayed loyal although several said they had been reluctant - partly they were still glowing from electoral success in the locals and didn't want to spoil it. But several said that they had normally Labour friends who were going LD or Green, and I do think the LDs will do very well.
>
> An old apolitical friend back in Nottingham says she voted UKIP, and she's not even a Leave supporter and doesn't care about immigrants - she just wanted to protest that everyone was rubbish by voting for the smallest party. Never assume every voter is entirely judicious and rational...
If Corbyn is only just squeaking active members he has a problem.
> Presumably turnout will include spoiled ballots, so assuming substantially more genitals are being drawn on voting slips than last time, that implies fewer votes on the same turnout.
>
> While discussing how to spoil ballots is as perennial PB topic to rival pizza toppings or the Punic wars, in practice do many people bother?
> @Foxy said:
> Presumably turnout will include spoiled ballots, so assuming substantially more genitals are being drawn on voting slips than last time, that implies fewer votes on the same turnout.
>
> While discussing how to spoil ballots is as perennial PB topic to rival pizza toppings or the Punic wars, in practice do many people bother?
50% of this household did. And I believe her.
> Presumably turnout will include spoiled ballots, so assuming substantially more genitals are being drawn on voting slips than last time, that implies fewer votes on the same turnout.
>
> While discussing how to spoil ballots is as perennial PB topic to rival pizza toppings or the Punic wars, in practice do many people bother?
Page 4 of this PDF from the Electoral Commission says 0.2% of completed ballots were spoilt in 2017. So not enough to change anything other than razor-thin margins. Much higher (2.4%) for postal votes rejected, interestingly (looks like they do more checks than I'd thought) - but still unlikely to swing a huge amount given we're no-where near most votes being postal even at the Euros.
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/234976/UKPGE-2017-electoral-data-report.pdf
> > @HYUFD said:
> > East Cambridgeshire council in with its turnout figures and also under 40%, it was slightly more Remain than the UK average with 50.9% Leave and 49.1% Remain which suggests nationally turnout will be under 40% and not much different from 2014
> >
> > https://twitter.com/EastCambs/status/1131696530979790850?s=20
>
> It was 32% last time in East Cambridgeshire. This is the first place that's had a vaguely significant increase from 2014. It could be enthusiasm from the Remainers in the Cambridge area.
A 'significant increase' would be well over 40%, turnout of 38% in a more Remain area is nowhere near significant enough to give a Remain party a chance of coming first (and of course E Cambridgeshire still voted Leave, even if narrowly).
For that it would need to have been close to 50% turnout in Remain areas and no more than 25% turnout in Leave areas
> Anecdata from my side - Surrey Labour *members* seem to have stayed loyal although several said they had been reluctant - partly they were still glowing from electoral success in the locals and didn't want to spoil it. But several said that they had normally Labour friends who were going LD or Green, and I do think the LDs will do very well.
>
> An old apolitical friend back in Nottingham says she voted UKIP, and she's not even a Leave supporter and doesn't care about immigrants - she just wanted to protest that everyone was rubbish by voting for the smallest party. Never assume every voter is entirely judicious and rational...
With respect to your anecdotal evidence Nick, I suspect most of your friends and contacts are highly politically motivated compared to your average Joe. But thanks for sharing anyway
Ind 699
Lab 293
Plaid 121
Con 34
LD 23
Last time
Lab 461
Ind 388
Plaid 265
> Low turnout figures in strong leave areas is probably indicative of the main parties vote staying at home and is unlikely to dent TBP. It will in fact result in an even higher percentage for them that if turnout had been higher
That's one hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is that if turnout is low in Leave areas and high(er) in Remain areas, the LDs and Greens will do well.
Personally I feel low turnout in Leave areas will mean that the Brexit Party will underperform vs. expectation.
> Low turnout figures in strong leave areas is probably indicative of the main parties vote staying at home and is unlikely to dent TBP. It will in fact result in an even higher percentage for them that if turnout had been higher
>
> There are still significant ‘Remain’ votes in ‘Leave’ areas. Who’s more motivated?
If I had to put money on it, I would say TBP by quite a margin
> > @NickPalmer said:
> > Anecdata from my side - Surrey Labour *members* seem to have stayed loyal although several said they had been reluctant - partly they were still glowing from electoral success in the locals and didn't want to spoil it. But several said that they had normally Labour friends who were going LD or Green, and I do think the LDs will do very well.
> >
> > An old apolitical friend back in Nottingham says she voted UKIP, and she's not even a Leave supporter and doesn't care about immigrants - she just wanted to protest that everyone was rubbish by voting for the smallest party. Never assume every voter is entirely judicious and rational...
>
> If Corbyn is only just squeaking active members he has a problem.
>
Would a Labour member be willing to openly admit to another Labour member that they themselves had not voted Labour?
> > @Quincel said:
> > Here's my final opinion on the turnout stats: It's sad how low they are.
>
> But is it surprising? People aren't stupid. They know when their vote doesn't matter a damn. These are EU parliamentary elections we're talking about.
Which we should not be having anyway as we were supposed to have Brexited by now
Also The Looming Tower and Mum. Fleabag is outstanding.
> > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > Low turnout figures in strong leave areas is probably indicative of the main parties vote staying at home and is unlikely to dent TBP. It will in fact result in an even higher percentage for them that if turnout had been higher
>
> That's one hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is that if turnout is low in Leave areas and high(er) in Remain areas, the LDs and Greens will do well.
>
> Personally I feel low turnout in Leave areas will mean that the Brexit Party will underperform vs. expectation.
That might be true, however they would have been expected to perform well in those areas anyway, so they could still end up with a large chunk of the vote.
> > @NickPalmer said:
> > Anecdata from my side - Surrey Labour *members* seem to have stayed loyal although several said they had been reluctant - partly they were still glowing from electoral success in the locals and didn't want to spoil it. But several said that they had normally Labour friends who were going LD or Green, and I do think the LDs will do very well.
> >
> > An old apolitical friend back in Nottingham says she voted UKIP, and she's not even a Leave supporter and doesn't care about immigrants - she just wanted to protest that everyone was rubbish by voting for the smallest party. Never assume every voter is entirely judicious and rational...
>
> Presumably Labour branches in Surrey are somewhat on the small side?
Don't know in general - we have 480 members in SW Surrey, which is a lot more than a few years ago, though it's been stationary for a year or so. But as noted below, merely squeaking members is not great, and my circle is mostly pretty motivated. People at work are all over the spectrum, though, and only a couple seemed especially interested.
> https://twitter.com/west_suffolk/status/1131701790725083141
That was 63 % Leave .
> > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > Low turnout figures in strong leave areas is probably indicative of the main parties vote staying at home and is unlikely to dent TBP. It will in fact result in an even higher percentage for them that if turnout had been higher
>
> That's one hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is that if turnout is low in Leave areas and high(er) in Remain areas, the LDs and Greens will do well.
>
> Personally I feel low turnout in Leave areas will mean that the Brexit Party will underperform vs. expectation.
30-35% turnout in Leave areas is average turnout for Euro elections not low turnout, that would be 20-25%. In the 1999 Euro elections UK turnout was just 24%
> > @murali_s said:
> > > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > Low turnout figures in strong leave areas is probably indicative of the main parties vote staying at home and is unlikely to dent TBP. It will in fact result in an even higher percentage for them that if turnout had been higher
> >
> > That's one hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is that if turnout is low in Leave areas and high(er) in Remain areas, the LDs and Greens will do well.
> >
> > Personally I feel low turnout in Leave areas will mean that the Brexit Party will underperform vs. expectation.
>
> That might be true, however they would have been expected to perform well in those areas anyway, so they could still end up with a large chunk of the vote.
One issue is that we don't have particularly good baselines from the polling, which is quite variable. If TBP get 31% of the vote it might look disappointing after so many polls ended with them surging to 35%+, but maybe those polls were wrong and without them we'd have thought anything above 30% (and likely a win) would be remarkable.
What I'm trying to get at is, if TBP get less than we expected we won't really know if they had a bad day or the polls were always wrong and they performed fine on the day.
> Question on the turnout. Looks like it is up on last time - are there also more people registered to vote after voter registration drives for Brexit and 2017 elections?
Yes, but, there has also been quite a lot of work to take, 'inaccurate' and out of date names of the voter lists, so these may be smaller and as a result the same number of voters turning up would look like a higher % turnout.
if % turnout changes a lot or is a different pattern in some parts of the contrary to others it could mean somethings if its just 2-3% more across the board with a few outliers, it may not mean anything.