That was very close in the EU ref , just voted Leave . So far there does seem a decent correlation overall , the more Remain or let’s say the less leavish the better the turnout .
Remain often (but not always, I.e inner-city Labour) correlates with high ABC1 areas. ABC1 are more likely to be habitual voters so many Remain areas will tend to have higher turnouts at elections. What’s more telling is changes in turnout.
OK I need to go to bed, but will try and get up around 7am to update the numbers. I'm going to use official tweets posted to this thread for the data so please keep updating and I'll post the latest chart in the morning.
Anyway, whoever flagged up the 7-2 earlier in the week for LDem to finish above Labour in London was a genius - I hope lots of you make some cash out of that one. Can't see any other outcome.
> @Greenwich_Floater said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Not looking good for the Tories on Betfair Exchange. 5%-9.99% is now favourite as far as their share of the vote is concerned. > > > > https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.158459637 > > What's the LAB vote midpoint > Not being lazy - I have anti-gambling software on my comp. Amazed I can access this site.
> @Quincel said: > OK I need to go to bed, but will try and get up around 7am to update the numbers. I'm going to use official tweets posted to this thread for the data so please keep updating and I'll post the latest chart in the morning.
> @Greenwich_Floater said: > Anyway, whoever flagged up the 7-2 earlier in the week for LDem to finish above Labour in London was a genius - I hope lots of you make some cash out of that one. Can't see any other outcome.
> @AndyJS said: > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > Anyway, whoever flagged up the 7-2 earlier in the week for LDem to finish above Labour in London was a genius - I hope lots of you make some cash out of that one. Can't see any other outcome. > > Horrible for Corbyn and Khan if so.
Worse for Corbyn. Khan has always distanced himself from Corbyn.
The last time that the Euro Elections happened without local elections on the same polling day was in 1999. The turnout across the U.K. was just 24%.
So the historic turnout benchmark ‘par’ for these Euro Elections is actually 24%, (not the usual c.36% of all the other more recent Euro Elections that coincided with local elections).
I still think predictions based on turnout is playing with fire.
We are in unprecedented times where it looks like parties commanding over 80% of the vote two years ago might be about 20% this time.
We simply do not know who has come out and who has stayed at home, let alone who has switched vote.
My first inkling of leave winning in 2016 was when IDS kept banging on about how the turnout was high in the council estates with people voting for the first time in their lives.
Makes for interesting times over the weekend (which is good as it is a bit devoid of sport this weekend, except for the grand prix and the play offs)
> @SurreyTory said: > The last time that the Euro Elections happened without local elections on the same polling day was in 1999. The turnout across the U.K. was just 24%. > > So the historic turnout benchmark ‘par’ for these Euro Elections is actually 24%, (not the usual c.36% of all the other more recent Euro Elections that coincided with local elections).
> @SurreyTory said: > The last time that the Euro Elections happened without local elections on the same polling day was in 1999. The turnout across the U.K. was just 24%. > > So the historic turnout benchmark ‘par’ for these Euro Elections is actually 24%, (not the usual c.36% of all the other more recent Euro Elections that coincided with local elections).
Correct. It's an impressive turnout in the circumstances.
> @murali_s said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > Anyway, whoever flagged up the 7-2 earlier in the week for LDem to finish above Labour in London was a genius - I hope lots of you make some cash out of that one. Can't see any other outcome. > > > > Horrible for Corbyn and Khan if so. > > Worse for Corbyn. Khan has always distanced himself from Corbyn. > > Khan is a shoe-in to be honest.
I think Khan will be re-elected, albeit he has been a mediocre mayor
> @Greenwich_Floater said: > > @murali_s said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > > Anyway, whoever flagged up the 7-2 earlier in the week for LDem to finish above Labour in London was a genius - I hope lots of you make some cash out of that one. Can't see any other outcome. > > > > > > Horrible for Corbyn and Khan if so. > > > > Worse for Corbyn. Khan has always distanced himself from Corbyn. > > > > Khan is a shoe-in to be honest. > > I think Khan will be re-elected, albeit he has been a mediocre mayor
Almost anyone with a red rosette would be elected in London these days because the Tory lower-middle classes have all moved out to Essex and Kent. London is a city of the rich and poor these days.
> @AndyJS said: > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > @murali_s said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > > > Anyway, whoever flagged up the 7-2 earlier in the week for LDem to finish above Labour in London was a genius - I hope lots of you make some cash out of that one. Can't see any other outcome. > > > > > > > > Horrible for Corbyn and Khan if so. > > > > > > Worse for Corbyn. Khan has always distanced himself from Corbyn. > > > > > > Khan is a shoe-in to be honest. > > > > I think Khan will be re-elected, albeit he has been a mediocre mayor > > Almost anyone with a red rosette would be elected in London these days because the Tory lower-middle classes have all moved out to Essex and Kent. London is a city of the rich and poor these days.
One of Charles Dickens characters said almost exactly the same thing 150 years ago
42% turnout in Leave Carmarthenshire higher than 41% turnout in Remain Cardiff, suggests turnout in Remain inner city areas will be lower than in Remain rural and suburban and spa town southern areas, again a bad sign for Labour
> > Almost anyone with a red rosette would be elected in London these days because the Tory lower-middle classes have all moved out to Essex and Kent. London is a city of the rich and poor these days.
Indeed - I'll count myself in the poor category.
Zone 4 outwards to the North East and South East still has some pretty solid Tory support
> @HYUFD said: > > 42% turnout in Leave Carmarthenshire higher than 41% turnout in Remain Cardiff, suggests turnout in Remain inner city areas will be lower than in Remain rural and suburban and spa town southern areas, again a bad sign for Labour
It's 41.8% vs 41.6%. Could you be reading too much into that difference?
> @AndyJS said: > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > @murali_s said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > > > Anyway, whoever flagged up the 7-2 earlier in the week for LDem to finish above Labour in London was a genius - I hope lots of you make some cash out of that one. Can't see any other outcome. > > > > > > > > Horrible for Corbyn and Khan if so. > > > > > > Worse for Corbyn. Khan has always distanced himself from Corbyn. > > > > > > Khan is a shoe-in to be honest. > > > > I think Khan will be re-elected, albeit he has been a mediocre mayor > > Almost anyone with a red rosette would be elected in London these days because the Tory lower-middle classes have all moved out to Essex and Kent. London is a city of the rich and poor these days.
Boris won London by winning the suburbs, Sugar could do the same if he runs and beat Khan
> @williamglenn said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > 42% turnout in Leave Carmarthenshire higher than 41% turnout in Remain Cardiff, suggests turnout in Remain inner city areas will be lower than in Remain rural and suburban and spa town southern areas, again a bad sign for Labour > > It's 41.8% vs 41.6%. Could you be reading too much into that difference?
Norwich turnout 38% so lower turn out in Remain city areas than Remain rural areas, suburbs and spa towns so far
> @HYUFD said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > > @murali_s said: > > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > > > > Anyway, whoever flagged up the 7-2 earlier in the week for LDem to finish above Labour in London was a genius - I hope lots of you make some cash out of that one. Can't see any other outcome. > > > > > > > > > > Horrible for Corbyn and Khan if so. > > > > > > > > Worse for Corbyn. Khan has always distanced himself from Corbyn. > > > > > > > > Khan is a shoe-in to be honest. > > > > > > I think Khan will be re-elected, albeit he has been a mediocre mayor > > > > Almost anyone with a red rosette would be elected in London these days because the Tory lower-middle classes have all moved out to Essex and Kent. London is a city of the rich and poor these days. > > Boris won London by winning the suburbs, Sugar could do the same if he runs and beat Khan
Sugar would be an interesting candidate. He was Labour for a long time IIRC.
Sugar is a Remainer thus has a good chance as an Independent in Remain London, he was close to Blair and Brown so would obviously not run as a Tory even though he backed Thatcher in the 80s, the Tory candidate is already Shaun Bailey
> @AndyJS said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > > > @murali_s said: > > > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > > > > > Anyway, whoever flagged up the 7-2 earlier in the week for LDem to finish above Labour in London was a genius - I hope lots of you make some cash out of that one. Can't see any other outcome. > > > > > > > > > > > > Horrible for Corbyn and Khan if so. > > > > > > > > > > Worse for Corbyn. Khan has always distanced himself from Corbyn. > > > > > > > > > > Khan is a shoe-in to be honest. > > > > > > > > I think Khan will be re-elected, albeit he has been a mediocre mayor > > > > > > Almost anyone with a red rosette would be elected in London these days because the Tory lower-middle classes have all moved out to Essex and Kent. London is a city of the rich and poor these days. > > > > Boris won London by winning the suburbs, Sugar could do the same if he runs and beat Khan > > Sugar would be an interesting candidate. He was Labour for a long time IIRC.
The clearest message to emerge from this turnout data is that - frankly - most people do not give a toss about Brexit - and would respond to other issues being raised at a GE.
> @justin124 said: > The clearest message to emerge from this turnout data is that - frankly - most people do not give a toss about Brexit - and would respond to other issues being raised at a GE.
Turnout so far is if anything slightly up on the last Euros and higher than the local elections earlier this month which suggests actually many do give a toss about Brexit.
It is certainly way up on the 24% for the 1999 Euros when they were last held separately from the locals
> @HYUFD said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > > > > @murali_s said: > > > > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > > > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > > > > > > Anyway, whoever flagged up the 7-2 earlier in the week for LDem to finish above Labour in London was a genius - I hope lots of you make some cash out of that one. Can't see any other outcome. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Horrible for Corbyn and Khan if so. > > > > > > > > > > > > Worse for Corbyn. Khan has always distanced himself from Corbyn. > > > > > > > > > > > > Khan is a shoe-in to be honest. > > > > > > > > > > I think Khan will be re-elected, albeit he has been a mediocre mayor > > > > > > > > Almost anyone with a red rosette would be elected in London these days because the Tory lower-middle classes have all moved out to Essex and Kent. London is a city of the rich and poor these days. > > > > > > Boris won London by winning the suburbs, Sugar could do the same if he runs and beat Khan > > > > Sugar would be an interesting candidate. He was Labour for a long time IIRC. > > He certainly hates Corbyn > > https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1131483749726793728?s=20 > >
> @HYUFD said: > > @justin124 said: > > The clearest message to emerge from this turnout data is that - frankly - most people do not give a toss about Brexit - and would respond to other issues being raised at a GE. > > Turnout so far is if anything slightly up on the last Euros and the local elections earlier this month which suggests actually many do give a toss about Brexit. > > It is certainly way up on the 24% for the 1999 Euros when they were last held separately from the locals
If over 60% of voters cannot be bothered to turn out in the face of all the hype thrown at them in recent weeks, Brexit is not a burning issue for them.
> > It is certainly way up on the 24% for the 1999 Euros when they were last held separately from the locals
Agree - I think it's a very respectable turnout, particularly given that as a country we were not even geared up for the election to happen in the first place.
Also - it's not about how many turned out, but which ones. That's were it will be won and lost.
I expect leave parties to have very high percentage wins in leave areas, albeit on less turnout that remain areas.
In the remain areas, I suspect it will a much closer battle with remain parties possibly getting the upper hand.
The big two are toast as far as this election is concerned.
> @justin124 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > The clearest message to emerge from this turnout data is that - frankly - most people do not give a toss about Brexit - and would respond to other issues being raised at a GE. > > > > Turnout so far is if anything slightly up on the last Euros and the local elections earlier this month which suggests actually many do give a toss about Brexit. > > > > It is certainly way up on the 24% for the 1999 Euros when they were last held separately from the locals > > If over 60% of voters cannot be bothered to turn out in the face of all the hype thrown at them in recent weeks, Brexit is not a burning issue for them.
If we had actually left the EU as a majority voted for on a 72% turnout 3 years ago ie a higher turnout than any general election since 1992 these European elections would not be happening at all and some will have felt it would be morally wrong to vote as a result but of those who did vote it looks like on the turnout the Brexit Party will win with the LDs second in a vote almost entirely determined by Brexit and a dire result for the main parties
> @justin124 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > The clearest message to emerge from this turnout data is that - frankly - most people do not give a toss about Brexit - and would respond to other issues being raised at a GE. > > > > Turnout so far is if anything slightly up on the last Euros and the local elections earlier this month which suggests actually many do give a toss about Brexit. > > > > It is certainly way up on the 24% for the 1999 Euros when they were last held separately from the locals > > If over 60% of voters cannot be bothered to turn out in the face of all the hype thrown at them in recent weeks, Brexit is not a burning issue for them.
80% of voters voted for parties that have very little credibility at the current time. It is understandable that a large percentage of these will not vote.
I don't think it's fair to say that the electorate doesn't give a toss about Brexit, but they probably are very bored of it now and would like it to be resolved one way or another so that the country can get on with normal stuff.
Regardless of whether turnout is better than normal EU elections the big issue is that the polling is way out on turnout .
So just for example the BMG had 46 % certain to vote 10/10 , others had higher figures . We’re currently running 10% below at least .
Polls always overestimate certainty to vote. As long as you end up with a sample that looks like the people who will actually get off their arse and vote it shouldn’t have any affect on voteshares.
> @viewcode said: > Regardless of whether turnout is better than normal EU elections the big issue is that the polling is way out on turnout . > > So just for example the BMG had 46 % certain to vote 10/10 , others had higher figures . We’re currently running 10% below at least . > > Polls always overestimate certainty to vote. As long as you end up with a sample that looks like the people who will actually get off their arse and vote it shouldn’t have any affect on voteshares. > > Unless there's differential turnout...
Indeed, also if I am interested enough to be on a panel for a polling company, the chances are I am more likely to vote than stay at home.
> @Greenwich_Floater said: > > It does have a CON brexiteer MP however who scored 43% last GE. How many of her voters have lent support to TBP. > > I'm not saying you are wrong - but I think there will be surprises come Sunday. ------
The Lib Dems are well placed to take the seat off her.
The stand alone EU elections of 1979 - 1994 saw turnout in the range of 32% to 36.5%.It does not appear that 2019 will be far outside that range - if at all.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > > It does have a CON brexiteer MP however who scored 43% last GE. How many of her voters have lent support to TBP. > > > > I'm not saying you are wrong - but I think there will be surprises come Sunday. > ------ > > The Lib Dems are well placed to take the seat off her. > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000960 >
Unless there are more seismic political ructions, I suspect come the next election you will be correct along with quite a few northern home counties seats.
> @justin124 said: > The stand alone EU elections of 1979 - 1994 saw turnout in the range of 32% to 36.5%.It does not appear that 2019 will be far outside that range - if at all.
Most of the Euros since had local elections at the same time, in 1999 they did not and turnout was just 24%, it will be at least 10% higher this year. The EU referendum also had a higher turnout than any general election from 1983 to 1997 bar 1992.
Turnout in Labour areas seems to be the worst which will be concerning for Labour if the Brexit Party win them comfortably as it will be Leavers most determined to vote in Labour Leave seats
> @justin124 said: > The stand alone EU elections of 1979 - 1994 saw turnout in the range of 32% to 36.5%.It does not appear that 2019 will be far outside that range - if at all.
bit more or an era with higher turnout in general to be fair.
I take your point though - personally I expected 40%+ as it was being billed as a quasi-peoples vote.
> @HYUFD said: > > @justin124 said: > > The stand alone EU elections of 1979 - 1994 saw turnout in the range of 32% to 36.5%.It does not appear that 2019 will be far outside that range - if at all. > > Most of those had local elections at the same time, in 1999 they did not and turn out was just 24%, it will be at least 10% higher this year
None of them coincided with Local Elections. That was a response to the abysmal turnout of 1999.
> @Greenwich_Floater said: > > @justin124 said: > > The stand alone EU elections of 1979 - 1994 saw turnout in the range of 32% to 36.5%.It does not appear that 2019 will be far outside that range - if at all. > > bit more or an era with higher turnout in general to be fair. > > I take your point though - personally I expected 40%+ as it was being billed as a quasi-peoples vote.
> @kle4 said: > So, done with verification. Has May resigned yet?
I don't know whether most areas are doing verification tomorrow or waiting until Sunday evening. Only a few appear to have done it tonight. Nothing from London.
> @justin124 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > The stand alone EU elections of 1979 - 1994 saw turnout in the range of 32% to 36.5%.It does not appear that 2019 will be far outside that range - if at all. > > > > Most of those had local elections at the same time, in 1999 they did not and turn out was just 24%, it will be at least 10% higher this year > > None of them coincided with Local Elections. That was a response to the abysmal turnout of 1999.
And this year it has matched turnout since and well exceeded 1999 despite no local elections.
The EU referendum also got the highest turnout for any UKwide poll since the 1992 general election
> So, done with verification. Has May resigned yet?
I don't know whether most areas are doing verification tomorrow or waiting until Sunday evening. Only a few appear to have done it tonight. Nothing from London.
I was at one in Wiltshire. Proper doing things at night, the way God intended.
> > Turnout in Labour areas seems to be the worst which will be concerning for Labour if the Brexit Party win them comfortably as it will be Leavers most determined to vote in Labour Leave seats
It's funny. I expected that if remain had won narrowly that Labour would eventually be reduced to a rump of MPs in metropolitan areas and UKIP would have become a centre left party sweeping up seats in northern towns (which was their trajectory at the time of the referendum).
I can see the same fate for Labour now, but it is far more interesting with the state of the conservative party as to who can emerge between the two.
> @Greenwich_Floater said: > will all of the counts be finished by 10pm Sunday?
Do you mean verification? They should have finished that by then. They start counting the votes at 10pm on Sunday, with the first results coming through at about 1am, probably from the North East region.
> @kle4 said: > > @kle4 said: > > > So, done with verification. Has May resigned yet? > > > > I don't know whether most areas are doing verification tomorrow or waiting until Sunday evening. Only a few appear to have done it tonight. Nothing from London. > > I was at one in Wiltshire. Proper doing things at night, the way God intended.
I'm told that experienced scrutineers can get a good idea of how people have voted from the verification process.
@Quincel I have to go to bed: it's 3am BST. Here are the turnouts to this moment. Those with question marks are not official (ie rumoured or not fully identified)
============ Place Turnout ============ Wyre Forest 32% Southend 33.23% Harlow 30.47% Lincoln 32.37% East Cambs 38.20% Merthyr 29% Braintree 33.39% WestSuffolk 35.58% Bath & North East Somerset 44.40% Wigan 28.40% Leigh 28.50% Makerfield 26.80% South Somerset 40.82% St Albans 47.05% Plymouth 34.89% County Durham 32.94% South Lakeland 45.04% Newark and Sherwood 36.64% Copeland 31.07% Exeter 41% ? Carmarthenshire 41.80% North Kesteven 34.39% Ashfield 30.50% Derby 31.79% Neath Port Talbot 35.49% Harborough 40.30% Bournemouth? 35.93% ? Stroud 46.30% South Holland 32.12% Cardiff 41.56% South Kesteven 36.60% Norwich 38.80% ? Sedgemoor 35.35% Cheshire West and Chester 34.94%
or if you want it in alphabetical order:
============ Place Turnout ============ Ashfield 30.50% Bath & North East Somerset 44.40% Bournemouth? 35.93% ? Braintree 33.39% Cardiff 41.56% Carmarthenshire 41.80% Cheshire West and Chester 34.94% Copeland 31.07% County Durham 32.94% Derby 31.79% East Cambs 38.20% Exeter 41% ? Harborough 40.30% Harlow 30.47% Leigh 28.50% Lincoln 32.37% Makerfield 26.80% Merthyr 29% Neath Port Talbot 35.49% Newark and Sherwood 36.64% North Kesteven 34.39% Norwich 38.80% ? Plymouth 34.89% Sedgemoor 35.35% South Holland 32.12% South Kesteven 36.60% South Lakeland 45.04% South Somerset 40.82% Southend 33.23% St Albans 47.05% Stroud 46.30% WestSuffolk 35.58% Wigan 28.40% Wyre Forest 32%
> will all of the counts be finished by 10pm Sunday?
Do you mean verification? They should have finished that by then. They start counting the votes at 10pm on Sunday, with the first results coming through at about 1am, probably from the North East region.
I thought some places were counting earlier, mid afternoon on Sunday, they just cannot release the results until 10pm?
> > So, done with verification. Has May resigned yet?
>
>
>
> I don't know whether most areas are doing verification tomorrow or waiting until Sunday evening. Only a few appear to have done it tonight. Nothing from London.
>
> I was at one in Wiltshire. Proper doing things at night, the way God intended.
I'm told that experienced scrutineers can get a good idea of how people have voted from the verification process.
I find that hard to believe to put it mildly. It sounds like a few people got lucky once in a guess, or in the retelling their predictive prowess is exagerrated.
> @justin124 said: > The clearest message to emerge from this turnout data is that - frankly - most people do not give a toss about Brexit - and would respond to other issues being raised at a GE.
But we knew that in GE 2017, why did it take this election to learn that lesson?
@Quincel I have to go to bed: it's 3am BST. Here are the turnouts to this moment. Those with question marks are not official (ie rumoured or not fully identified)
============ Place Turnout ============ Wyre Forest 32% Southend 33.23% Harlow 30.47% Lincoln 32.37% East Cambs 38.20% Merthyr 29% Braintree 33.39% WestSuffolk 35.58% Bath & North East Somerset 44.40% Wigan 28.40% Leigh 28.50% Makerfield 26.80% South Somerset 40.82% St Albans 47.05% Plymouth 34.89% County Durham 32.94% South Lakeland 45.04% Newark and Sherwood 36.64% Copeland 31.07% Exeter 41% ? Carmarthenshire 41.80% North Kesteven 34.39% Ashfield 30.50% Derby 31.79% Neath Port Talbot 35.49% Harborough 40.30% Bournemouth? 35.93% ? Stroud 46.30% South Holland 32.12% Cardiff 41.56% South Kesteven 36.60% Norwich 38.80% ? Sedgemoor 35.35% Cheshire West and Chester 34.94%
or if you want it in alphabetical order:
============ Place Turnout ============ Ashfield 30.50% Bath & North East Somerset 44.40% Bournemouth? 35.93% ? Braintree 33.39% Cardiff 41.56% Carmarthenshire 41.80% Cheshire West and Chester 34.94% Copeland 31.07% County Durham 32.94% Derby 31.79% East Cambs 38.20% Exeter 41% ? Harborough 40.30% Harlow 30.47% Leigh 28.50% Lincoln 32.37% Makerfield 26.80% Merthyr 29% Neath Port Talbot 35.49% Newark and Sherwood 36.64% North Kesteven 34.39% Norwich 38.80% ? Plymouth 34.89% Sedgemoor 35.35% South Holland 32.12% South Kesteven 36.60% South Lakeland 45.04% South Somerset 40.82% Southend 33.23% St Albans 47.05% Stroud 46.30% WestSuffolk 35.58% Wigan 28.40% Wyre Forest 32%
Many thanks. Seems..unremarkable? Decentish? What does it take to get people to vote thesedays?
> @SurreyTory said: > The last time that the Euro Elections happened without local elections on the same polling day was in 1999. The turnout across the U.K. was just 24%. > > So the historic turnout benchmark ‘par’ for these Euro Elections is actually 24%, (not the usual c.36% of all the other more recent Euro Elections that coincided with local elections).
Welcome.
"Surrey Tory" ........becoming an ever rare breed these days.
> @kle4 said: > > @kle4 said: > > > So, done with verification. Has May resigned yet? > > > > I don't know whether most areas are doing verification tomorrow or waiting until Sunday evening. Only a few appear to have done it tonight. Nothing from London. > > I was at one in Wiltshire. Proper doing things at night, the way God intended.
kle4: as far as I know they can't actually start counting the votes until 10pm on Sunday and it'll take at least 2 or 3 hours before any results because the constituencies are so large. The North East is a small one, but the others could take until 5 or 6 o'clock in the morning. Only verification is allowed before 10pm on Sunday.
At least that's how it's always been done at previous Euro elections.
Cornwall are verifying tomorrow morning according to this.
kle4: as far as I know they can't actually start counting the votes until 10pm on Sunday and it'll take at least 2 or 3 hours before any results because the constituencies are so large. The North East is a small one, but the others could take until 5 or 6 o'clock in the morning. Only verification is allowed before 10pm on Sunday.
At least that's how it's always been done at previous Euro elections.
Cornwall are verifying tomorrow morning according to this.
> @kle4 said: > kle4: as far as I know they can't actually start counting the votes until 10pm on Sunday and it'll take at least 2 or 3 hours before any results because the constituencies are so large. The North East is a small one, but the others could take until 5 or 6 o'clock in the morning. Only verification is allowed before 10pm on Sunday. > > > > At least that's how it's always been done at previous Euro elections. > > > > Cornwall are verifying tomorrow morning according to this. > > > > https://twitter.com/ldnik/status/1131719224773283841 > > > > My council say counting will begin afternoon of Sunday. If that is not allowed I hope someone tells them soon! > > http://www.wiltshire.gov.uk/news/articles/count-at-election
> @RobD said: > > @kle4 said: > > kle4: as far as I know they can't actually start counting the votes until 10pm on Sunday and it'll take at least 2 or 3 hours before any results because the constituencies are so large. The North East is a small one, but the others could take until 5 or 6 o'clock in the morning. Only verification is allowed before 10pm on Sunday. > > > > > > > > At least that's how it's always been done at previous Euro elections. > > > > > > > > Cornwall are verifying tomorrow morning according to this. > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/ldnik/status/1131719224773283841 > > > > > > > > My council say counting will begin afternoon of Sunday. If that is not allowed I hope someone tells them soon! > > > > http://www.wiltshire.gov.uk/news/articles/count-at-election > > I always knew Wiltshire was a rogue county.
What they could mean is they will be preparing to start counting at 10pm, so they get everything ready during the afternoon, so that it can get off to a flying start without any delays. In other words, it's not a case of people arriving to count the votes at 10pm, they can be there beforehand.
> > kle4: as far as I know they can't actually start counting the votes until 10pm on Sunday and it'll take at least 2 or 3 hours before any results because the constituencies are so large. The North East is a small one, but the others could take until 5 or 6 o'clock in the morning. Only verification is allowed before 10pm on Sunday.
> >
> >
> >
> > At least that's how it's always been done at previous Euro elections.
> >
> >
> >
> > Cornwall are verifying tomorrow morning according to this.
What they could mean is they will be preparing to start counting at 10pm, so they get everything ready during the afternoon, so that it can get off to a flying start without any delays.
No they are starting at 2pm - they dont need 8 hours to prepare
> @kle4 said: > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > will all of the counts be finished by 10pm Sunday? > > > > Do you mean verification? They should have finished that by then. They start counting the votes at 10pm on Sunday, with the first results coming through at about 1am, probably from the North East region. > > I thought some places were counting earlier, mid afternoon on Sunday, they just cannot release the results until 10pm?> @kle4 said: > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > > > So, done with verification. Has May resigned yet? > > > > > > > > > > > > I don't know whether most areas are doing verification tomorrow or waiting until Sunday evening. Only a few appear to have done it tonight. Nothing from London. > > > > > > I was at one in Wiltshire. Proper doing things at night, the way God intended. > > > > I'm told that experienced scrutineers can get a good idea of how people have voted from the verification process. > > I find that hard to believe to put it mildly. It sounds like a few people got lucky once in a guess, or in the retelling their predictive prowess is exaggerated
Not at all. If papers are verified face up - as is normal UK practice - a good tally can get a very close estimate of the result. I have done it many times. But I heard that this time the papers are being verified face down (like at postal vote verifications, from which any rumours are mostly nonsense as you say).
> @IanB2 said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > > > will all of the counts be finished by 10pm Sunday? > > > > > > > > Do you mean verification? They should have finished that by then. They start counting the votes at 10pm on Sunday, with the first results coming through at about 1am, probably from the North East region. > > > > I thought some places were counting earlier, mid afternoon on Sunday, they just cannot release the results until 10pm?> @kle4 said: > > > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > > > > > > > So, done with verification. Has May resigned yet? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I don't know whether most areas are doing verification tomorrow or waiting until Sunday evening. Only a few appear to have done it tonight. Nothing from London. > > > > > > > > > > I was at one in Wiltshire. Proper doing things at night, the way God intended. > > > > > > > > I'm told that experienced scrutineers can get a good idea of how people have voted from the verification process. > > > > I find that hard to believe to put it mildly. It sounds like a few people got lucky once in a guess, or in the retelling their predictive prowess is exaggerated > > Not at all. If papers are verified face up - as is normal UK practice - a good tally can get a very close estimate of the result. I have done it many times. But I heard that this time the papers are being verified face down (like at postal vote verifications, from which any rumours are mostly nonsense as you say). > >
Agree. Watched face up verification lots of times. As long as you witness most ballot boxes and know what polling stations they are from, which you normally can you can get the result, unless it is close
Counting can take place at any point from now, but local results can only be shared with the RRO (regional returning officer), who is asked to declare “as soon as practicable” after 10pm Sunday.
Councils can, but I’m not sure are obliged to, have some sort of local declaration after 10pm.
In theory it could all be done by 10.30, but I guess some laggards will be counting late.
The handful I’ve heard about have a daytime count on Sunday, I guess to avoid leaks days in advance.
Comments
> How do you embed images into these posts? I've started a chart but need to sleep soon.
>
> There’s a button on the Vanilla forums page
>
> http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/7624/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-frustratingly-there-ll-be-no-results-or-even-on-the-day-polls#latest
>
> Good luck. I await your response with great anticipation.
>
> Ah yes, cheers. It's not a perfect chart since Excel won't put a line where Remain at 50% is! But there does seem to be some kind of Remainy trend in area turnout.
Like that chart!
74% Leave
> https://twitter.com/shollanddc/status/1131724132838727681
>
>
>
> 74% Leave
-0.3% change in turnout.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Not looking good for the Tories on Betfair Exchange. 5%-9.99% is now favourite as far as their share of the vote is concerned.
> >
> > https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.158459637
>
> What's the LAB vote midpoint
> Not being lazy - I have anti-gambling software on my comp. Amazed I can access this site.
Latest figures:
14.99% or under: 2.46 / 3.5
15-19.99%: 2.52 / 3.45
20-24.99%: 2.88 / 4.4
25-29.99%: 8.4 / 15
Matched: £3,920
> OK I need to go to bed, but will try and get up around 7am to update the numbers. I'm going to use official tweets posted to this thread for the data so please keep updating and I'll post the latest chart in the morning.
How can you sleep at a time like this?
> Anyway, whoever flagged up the 7-2 earlier in the week for LDem to finish above Labour in London was a genius - I hope lots of you make some cash out of that one. Can't see any other outcome.
Horrible for Corbyn and Khan if so.
> > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > Anyway, whoever flagged up the 7-2 earlier in the week for LDem to finish above Labour in London was a genius - I hope lots of you make some cash out of that one. Can't see any other outcome.
>
> Horrible for Corbyn and Khan if so.
Worse for Corbyn. Khan has always distanced himself from Corbyn.
Khan is a shoe-in to be honest.
> Has Nigel Farage conceded yet?
The turnout figures are good for the LDs but not necessarily bad for the Brexit Party. In other words, it's not looking good for Con and Lab.
60% remain
So the historic turnout benchmark ‘par’ for these Euro Elections is actually 24%, (not the usual c.36% of all the other more recent Euro Elections that coincided with local elections).
> I predict the Lib Dems will get over a million votes in London.
That would be about 43% of the vote in London, based on a turnout of about 38%. (Last time was 37.4%).
We are in unprecedented times where it looks like parties commanding over 80% of the vote two years ago might be about 20% this time.
We simply do not know who has come out and who has stayed at home, let alone who has switched vote.
My first inkling of leave winning in 2016 was when IDS kept banging on about how the turnout was high in the council estates with people voting for the first time in their lives.
Makes for interesting times over the weekend (which is good as it is a bit devoid of sport this weekend, except for the grand prix and the play offs)
60% leave
> Norwich was 38.8% turnout apparently.
That’s a poor result in all honesty .
> https://twitter.com/cardiffcouncil/status/1131726034255187968
>
>
>
> 60% remain
32% turnout last time.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > https://twitter.com/cardiffcouncil/status/1131726034255187968
> >
> >
> >
> > 60% remain
>
> 32% turnout last time.
This is looking consistently good for Remain.
> The last time that the Euro Elections happened without local elections on the same polling day was in 1999. The turnout across the U.K. was just 24%.
>
> So the historic turnout benchmark ‘par’ for these Euro Elections is actually 24%, (not the usual c.36% of all the other more recent Euro Elections that coincided with local elections).
Welcome to PB, SurreyTory!
35% turnout.
61% leave
>
> Latest figures:
>
> 14.99% or under: 2.46 / 3.5
> 15-19.99%: 2.52 / 3.45
> 20-24.99%: 2.88 / 4.4
> 25-29.99%: 8.4 / 15
>
> Matched: £3,920
Thanks - under 15% slight favorite then.
have to laugh at 25-30% - should be at least 10 times those odds.
> The last time that the Euro Elections happened without local elections on the same polling day was in 1999. The turnout across the U.K. was just 24%.
>
> So the historic turnout benchmark ‘par’ for these Euro Elections is actually 24%, (not the usual c.36% of all the other more recent Euro Elections that coincided with local elections).
Correct. It's an impressive turnout in the circumstances.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > Anyway, whoever flagged up the 7-2 earlier in the week for LDem to finish above Labour in London was a genius - I hope lots of you make some cash out of that one. Can't see any other outcome.
> >
> > Horrible for Corbyn and Khan if so.
>
> Worse for Corbyn. Khan has always distanced himself from Corbyn.
>
> Khan is a shoe-in to be honest.
I think Khan will be re-elected, albeit he has been a mediocre mayor
> > @murali_s said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > > Anyway, whoever flagged up the 7-2 earlier in the week for LDem to finish above Labour in London was a genius - I hope lots of you make some cash out of that one. Can't see any other outcome.
> > >
> > > Horrible for Corbyn and Khan if so.
> >
> > Worse for Corbyn. Khan has always distanced himself from Corbyn.
> >
> > Khan is a shoe-in to be honest.
>
> I think Khan will be re-elected, albeit he has been a mediocre mayor
Almost anyone with a red rosette would be elected in London these days because the Tory lower-middle classes have all moved out to Essex and Kent. London is a city of the rich and poor these days.
> I predict the Lib Dems will get over a million votes in London.
There are still quite large areas of London where the LibDems are complete non-entities, so I think 1m votes is pushing it.
The might beat TBP however as there isn't great love for Nigel in London.
> > @AndyJS said:
>
> >
> > Latest figures:
> >
> > 14.99% or under: 2.46 / 3.5
> > 15-19.99%: 2.52 / 3.45
> > 20-24.99%: 2.88 / 4.4
> > 25-29.99%: 8.4 / 15
> >
> > Matched: £3,920
>
> Thanks - under 15% slight favorite then.
>
> have to laugh at 25-30% - should be at least 10 times those odds.
The scientific polls ought to do better than punters, and the most recent survey had Labour on 23%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom#Opinion_polls
> > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > @murali_s said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > > > Anyway, whoever flagged up the 7-2 earlier in the week for LDem to finish above Labour in London was a genius - I hope lots of you make some cash out of that one. Can't see any other outcome.
> > > >
> > > > Horrible for Corbyn and Khan if so.
> > >
> > > Worse for Corbyn. Khan has always distanced himself from Corbyn.
> > >
> > > Khan is a shoe-in to be honest.
> >
> > I think Khan will be re-elected, albeit he has been a mediocre mayor
>
> Almost anyone with a red rosette would be elected in London these days because the Tory lower-middle classes have all moved out to Essex and Kent. London is a city of the rich and poor these days.
One of Charles Dickens characters said almost exactly the same thing 150 years ago
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > https://twitter.com/cardiffcouncil/status/1131726034255187968
> >
> >
> >
> > 60% remain
>
> 32% turnout last time.
42% turnout in Leave Carmarthenshire higher than 41% turnout in Remain Cardiff, suggests turnout in Remain inner city areas will be lower than in Remain rural and suburban and spa town southern areas, again a bad sign for Labour
>
> Almost anyone with a red rosette would be elected in London these days because the Tory lower-middle classes have all moved out to Essex and Kent. London is a city of the rich and poor these days.
Indeed - I'll count myself in the poor category.
Zone 4 outwards to the North East and South East still has some pretty solid Tory support
> Norwich was 38.8% turnout apparently.
Norwich was 56% Remain
>
> 42% turnout in Leave Carmarthenshire higher than 41% turnout in Remain Cardiff, suggests turnout in Remain inner city areas will be lower than in Remain rural and suburban and spa town southern areas, again a bad sign for Labour
It's 41.8% vs 41.6%. Could you be reading too much into that difference?
> > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > @murali_s said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > > > Anyway, whoever flagged up the 7-2 earlier in the week for LDem to finish above Labour in London was a genius - I hope lots of you make some cash out of that one. Can't see any other outcome.
> > > >
> > > > Horrible for Corbyn and Khan if so.
> > >
> > > Worse for Corbyn. Khan has always distanced himself from Corbyn.
> > >
> > > Khan is a shoe-in to be honest.
> >
> > I think Khan will be re-elected, albeit he has been a mediocre mayor
>
> Almost anyone with a red rosette would be elected in London these days because the Tory lower-middle classes have all moved out to Essex and Kent. London is a city of the rich and poor these days.
Boris won London by winning the suburbs, Sugar could do the same if he runs and beat Khan
>
> Boris won London by winning the suburbs, Sugar could do the same if he runs and beat Khan
---------
Will this be under a Boris-led Tory party?
https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1070266802343694338
Locals predicted a tied national vote share
Fair to say that the CON party has continued on a destructive path since then.
Also - no TBP in the locals which would have shaved a lot more blues off.
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > 42% turnout in Leave Carmarthenshire higher than 41% turnout in Remain Cardiff, suggests turnout in Remain inner city areas will be lower than in Remain rural and suburban and spa town southern areas, again a bad sign for Labour
>
> It's 41.8% vs 41.6%. Could you be reading too much into that difference?
Norwich turnout 38% so lower turn out in Remain city areas than Remain rural areas, suburbs and spa towns so far
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > > @murali_s said:
> > > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > > > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > > > > Anyway, whoever flagged up the 7-2 earlier in the week for LDem to finish above Labour in London was a genius - I hope lots of you make some cash out of that one. Can't see any other outcome.
> > > > >
> > > > > Horrible for Corbyn and Khan if so.
> > > >
> > > > Worse for Corbyn. Khan has always distanced himself from Corbyn.
> > > >
> > > > Khan is a shoe-in to be honest.
> > >
> > > I think Khan will be re-elected, albeit he has been a mediocre mayor
> >
> > Almost anyone with a red rosette would be elected in London these days because the Tory lower-middle classes have all moved out to Essex and Kent. London is a city of the rich and poor these days.
>
> Boris won London by winning the suburbs, Sugar could do the same if he runs and beat Khan
Sugar would be an interesting candidate. He was Labour for a long time IIRC.
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > Boris won London by winning the suburbs, Sugar could do the same if he runs and beat Khan
> ---------
>
> Will this be under a Boris-led Tory party?
>
> https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1070266802343694338
I can only imagine Sugar running as IND.
I'd give him a shout though.
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > Boris won London by winning the suburbs, Sugar could do the same if he runs and beat Khan
> ---------
>
> Will this be under a Boris-led Tory party?
>
> https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1070266802343694338
Sugar is a Remainer thus has a good chance as an Independent in Remain London, he was close to Blair and Brown so would obviously not run as a Tory even though he backed Thatcher in the 80s, the Tory candidate is already Shaun Bailey
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > > > @murali_s said:
> > > > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > > > > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > > > > > Anyway, whoever flagged up the 7-2 earlier in the week for LDem to finish above Labour in London was a genius - I hope lots of you make some cash out of that one. Can't see any other outcome.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Horrible for Corbyn and Khan if so.
> > > > >
> > > > > Worse for Corbyn. Khan has always distanced himself from Corbyn.
> > > > >
> > > > > Khan is a shoe-in to be honest.
> > > >
> > > > I think Khan will be re-elected, albeit he has been a mediocre mayor
> > >
> > > Almost anyone with a red rosette would be elected in London these days because the Tory lower-middle classes have all moved out to Essex and Kent. London is a city of the rich and poor these days.
> >
> > Boris won London by winning the suburbs, Sugar could do the same if he runs and beat Khan
>
> Sugar would be an interesting candidate. He was Labour for a long time IIRC.
He certainly hates Corbyn
https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1131483749726793728?s=20
Leave hard-core: rawr
Remain hard-core: RAWR
Vast majority of voters: tsk
Tommy Robinson is far right - Farage is just right wing, albeit a little bit authoritarian.
> The clearest message to emerge from this turnout data is that - frankly - most people do not give a toss about Brexit - and would respond to other issues being raised at a GE.
Turnout so far is if anything slightly up on the last Euros and higher than the local elections earlier this month which suggests actually many do give a toss about Brexit.
It is certainly way up on the 24% for the 1999 Euros when they were last held separately from the locals
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > > > > @murali_s said:
> > > > > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > > > > > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > > > > > > Anyway, whoever flagged up the 7-2 earlier in the week for LDem to finish above Labour in London was a genius - I hope lots of you make some cash out of that one. Can't see any other outcome.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Horrible for Corbyn and Khan if so.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Worse for Corbyn. Khan has always distanced himself from Corbyn.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Khan is a shoe-in to be honest.
> > > > >
> > > > > I think Khan will be re-elected, albeit he has been a mediocre mayor
> > > >
> > > > Almost anyone with a red rosette would be elected in London these days because the Tory lower-middle classes have all moved out to Essex and Kent. London is a city of the rich and poor these days.
> > >
> > > Boris won London by winning the suburbs, Sugar could do the same if he runs and beat Khan
> >
> > Sugar would be an interesting candidate. He was Labour for a long time IIRC.
>
> He certainly hates Corbyn
>
> https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1131483749726793728?s=20
>
>
I like his new glasses.
> > @justin124 said:
> > The clearest message to emerge from this turnout data is that - frankly - most people do not give a toss about Brexit - and would respond to other issues being raised at a GE.
>
> Turnout so far is if anything slightly up on the last Euros and the local elections earlier this month which suggests actually many do give a toss about Brexit.
>
> It is certainly way up on the 24% for the 1999 Euros when they were last held separately from the locals
If over 60% of voters cannot be bothered to turn out in the face of all the hype thrown at them in recent weeks, Brexit is not a burning issue for them.
> > @justin124 said:
>
> It is certainly way up on the 24% for the 1999 Euros when they were last held separately from the locals
Agree - I think it's a very respectable turnout, particularly given that as a country we were not even geared up for the election to happen in the first place.
Also - it's not about how many turned out, but which ones. That's were it will be won and lost.
I expect leave parties to have very high percentage wins in leave areas, albeit on less turnout that remain areas.
In the remain areas, I suspect it will a much closer battle with remain parties possibly getting the upper hand.
The big two are toast as far as this election is concerned.
Leave 50.7%
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > The clearest message to emerge from this turnout data is that - frankly - most people do not give a toss about Brexit - and would respond to other issues being raised at a GE.
> >
> > Turnout so far is if anything slightly up on the last Euros and the local elections earlier this month which suggests actually many do give a toss about Brexit.
> >
> > It is certainly way up on the 24% for the 1999 Euros when they were last held separately from the locals
>
> If over 60% of voters cannot be bothered to turn out in the face of all the hype thrown at them in recent weeks, Brexit is not a burning issue for them.
If we had actually left the EU as a majority voted for on a 72% turnout 3 years ago ie a higher turnout than any general election since 1992 these European elections would not be happening at all and some will have felt it would be morally wrong to vote as a result but of those who did vote it looks like on the turnout the Brexit Party will win with the LDs second in a vote almost entirely determined by Brexit and a dire result for the main parties
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > The clearest message to emerge from this turnout data is that - frankly - most people do not give a toss about Brexit - and would respond to other issues being raised at a GE.
> >
> > Turnout so far is if anything slightly up on the last Euros and the local elections earlier this month which suggests actually many do give a toss about Brexit.
> >
> > It is certainly way up on the 24% for the 1999 Euros when they were last held separately from the locals
>
> If over 60% of voters cannot be bothered to turn out in the face of all the hype thrown at them in recent weeks, Brexit is not a burning issue for them.
80% of voters voted for parties that have very little credibility at the current time. It is understandable that a large percentage of these will not vote.
I don't think it's fair to say that the electorate doesn't give a toss about Brexit, but they probably are very bored of it now and would like it to be resolved one way or another so that the country can get on with normal stuff.
> A 47% turnout in St Albans which voted 61% Remain is interesting to put it mildly.
It does have a CON brexiteer MP however who scored 43% last GE. How many of her voters have lent support to TBP.
I'm not saying you are wrong - but I think there will be surprises come Sunday.
> Regardless of whether turnout is better than normal EU elections the big issue is that the polling is way out on turnout .
>
> So just for example the BMG had 46 % certain to vote 10/10 , others had higher figures . We’re currently running 10% below at least .
>
> Polls always overestimate certainty to vote. As long as you end up with a sample that looks like the people who will actually get off their arse and vote it shouldn’t have any affect on voteshares.
>
> Unless there's differential turnout...
Indeed, also if I am interested enough to be on a panel for a polling company, the chances are I am more likely to vote than stay at home.
>
> It does have a CON brexiteer MP however who scored 43% last GE. How many of her voters have lent support to TBP.
>
> I'm not saying you are wrong - but I think there will be surprises come Sunday.
------
The Lib Dems are well placed to take the seat off her.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000960
> A 47% turnout in St Albans which voted 61% Remain is interesting to put it mildly.
49% voted in 2 wards in St Albans in the local elections, it always gets a high turnout
https://www.stalbans.gov.uk/council-and-democracy/elections/May2019elections/default.aspx
> > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> >
> > It does have a CON brexiteer MP however who scored 43% last GE. How many of her voters have lent support to TBP.
> >
> > I'm not saying you are wrong - but I think there will be surprises come Sunday.
> ------
>
> The Lib Dems are well placed to take the seat off her.
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000960
>
Unless there are more seismic political ructions, I suspect come the next election you will be correct along with quite a few northern home counties seats.
> The stand alone EU elections of 1979 - 1994 saw turnout in the range of 32% to 36.5%.It does not appear that 2019 will be far outside that range - if at all.
Most of the Euros since had local elections at the same time, in 1999 they did not and turnout was just 24%, it will be at least 10% higher this year. The EU referendum also had a higher turnout than any general election from 1983 to 1997 bar 1992.
Turnout in Labour areas seems to be the worst which will be concerning for Labour if the Brexit Party win them comfortably as it will be Leavers most determined to vote in Labour Leave seats
> The stand alone EU elections of 1979 - 1994 saw turnout in the range of 32% to 36.5%.It does not appear that 2019 will be far outside that range - if at all.
bit more or an era with higher turnout in general to be fair.
I take your point though - personally I expected 40%+ as it was being billed as a quasi-peoples vote.
> > @justin124 said:
> > The stand alone EU elections of 1979 - 1994 saw turnout in the range of 32% to 36.5%.It does not appear that 2019 will be far outside that range - if at all.
>
> Most of those had local elections at the same time, in 1999 they did not and turn out was just 24%, it will be at least 10% higher this year
None of them coincided with Local Elections. That was a response to the abysmal turnout of 1999.
> > @justin124 said:
> > The stand alone EU elections of 1979 - 1994 saw turnout in the range of 32% to 36.5%.It does not appear that 2019 will be far outside that range - if at all.
>
> bit more or an era with higher turnout in general to be fair.
>
> I take your point though - personally I expected 40%+ as it was being billed as a quasi-peoples vote.
In some areas it has been 40%+
> So, done with verification. Has May resigned yet?
I don't know whether most areas are doing verification tomorrow or waiting until Sunday evening. Only a few appear to have done it tonight. Nothing from London.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > The stand alone EU elections of 1979 - 1994 saw turnout in the range of 32% to 36.5%.It does not appear that 2019 will be far outside that range - if at all.
> >
> > Most of those had local elections at the same time, in 1999 they did not and turn out was just 24%, it will be at least 10% higher this year
>
> None of them coincided with Local Elections. That was a response to the abysmal turnout of 1999.
And this year it has matched turnout since and well exceeded 1999 despite no local elections.
The EU referendum also got the highest turnout for any UKwide poll since the 1992 general election
>
> Turnout in Labour areas seems to be the worst which will be concerning for Labour if the Brexit Party win them comfortably as it will be Leavers most determined to vote in Labour Leave seats
It's funny.
I expected that if remain had won narrowly that Labour would eventually be reduced to a rump of MPs in metropolitan areas and UKIP would have become a centre left party sweeping up seats in northern towns (which was their trajectory at the time of the referendum).
I can see the same fate for Labour now, but it is far more interesting with the state of the conservative party as to who can emerge between the two.
> So, done with verification. Has May resigned yet?
The end of May has been postponed until sometime in June this year.
Mainly due to a state visit by Trump.
> will all of the counts be finished by 10pm Sunday?
Do you mean verification? They should have finished that by then. They start counting the votes at 10pm on Sunday, with the first results coming through at about 1am, probably from the North East region.
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > So, done with verification. Has May resigned yet?
>
>
>
> I don't know whether most areas are doing verification tomorrow or waiting until Sunday evening. Only a few appear to have done it tonight. Nothing from London.
>
> I was at one in Wiltshire. Proper doing things at night, the way God intended.
I'm told that experienced scrutineers can get a good idea of how people have voted from the verification process.
I have to go to bed: it's 3am BST. Here are the turnouts to this moment. Those with question marks are not official (ie rumoured or not fully identified)
============
Place Turnout
============
Wyre Forest 32%
Southend 33.23%
Harlow 30.47%
Lincoln 32.37%
East Cambs 38.20%
Merthyr 29%
Braintree 33.39%
WestSuffolk 35.58%
Bath & North East Somerset 44.40%
Wigan 28.40%
Leigh 28.50%
Makerfield 26.80%
South Somerset 40.82%
St Albans 47.05%
Plymouth 34.89%
County Durham 32.94%
South Lakeland 45.04%
Newark and Sherwood 36.64%
Copeland 31.07%
Exeter 41% ?
Carmarthenshire 41.80%
North Kesteven 34.39%
Ashfield 30.50%
Derby 31.79%
Neath Port Talbot 35.49%
Harborough 40.30%
Bournemouth? 35.93% ?
Stroud 46.30%
South Holland 32.12%
Cardiff 41.56%
South Kesteven 36.60%
Norwich 38.80% ?
Sedgemoor 35.35%
Cheshire West and Chester 34.94%
or if you want it in alphabetical order:
============
Place Turnout
============
Ashfield 30.50%
Bath & North East Somerset 44.40%
Bournemouth? 35.93% ?
Braintree 33.39%
Cardiff 41.56%
Carmarthenshire 41.80%
Cheshire West and Chester 34.94%
Copeland 31.07%
County Durham 32.94%
Derby 31.79%
East Cambs 38.20%
Exeter 41% ?
Harborough 40.30%
Harlow 30.47%
Leigh 28.50%
Lincoln 32.37%
Makerfield 26.80%
Merthyr 29%
Neath Port Talbot 35.49%
Newark and Sherwood 36.64%
North Kesteven 34.39%
Norwich 38.80% ?
Plymouth 34.89%
Sedgemoor 35.35%
South Holland 32.12%
South Kesteven 36.60%
South Lakeland 45.04%
South Somerset 40.82%
Southend 33.23%
St Albans 47.05%
Stroud 46.30%
WestSuffolk 35.58%
Wigan 28.40%
Wyre Forest 32%
> The clearest message to emerge from this turnout data is that - frankly - most people do not give a toss about Brexit - and would respond to other issues being raised at a GE.
But we knew that in GE 2017, why did it take this election to learn that lesson?
> The last time that the Euro Elections happened without local elections on the same polling day was in 1999. The turnout across the U.K. was just 24%.
>
> So the historic turnout benchmark ‘par’ for these Euro Elections is actually 24%, (not the usual c.36% of all the other more recent Euro Elections that coincided with local elections).
Welcome.
"Surrey Tory" ........becoming an ever rare breed these days.
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > So, done with verification. Has May resigned yet?
>
>
>
> I don't know whether most areas are doing verification tomorrow or waiting until Sunday evening. Only a few appear to have done it tonight. Nothing from London.
>
> I was at one in Wiltshire. Proper doing things at night, the way God intended.
Like voting on a Thursday.
At least that's how it's always been done at previous Euro elections.
Cornwall are verifying tomorrow morning according to this.
https://twitter.com/ldnik/status/1131719224773283841
http://www.wiltshire.gov.uk/news/articles/count-at-election
> kle4: as far as I know they can't actually start counting the votes until 10pm on Sunday and it'll take at least 2 or 3 hours before any results because the constituencies are so large. The North East is a small one, but the others could take until 5 or 6 o'clock in the morning. Only verification is allowed before 10pm on Sunday.
>
>
>
> At least that's how it's always been done at previous Euro elections.
>
>
>
> Cornwall are verifying tomorrow morning according to this.
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/ldnik/status/1131719224773283841
>
>
>
> My council say counting will begin afternoon of Sunday. If that is not allowed I hope someone tells them soon!
>
> http://www.wiltshire.gov.uk/news/articles/count-at-election
I always knew Wiltshire was a rogue county.
> > @kle4 said:
> > kle4: as far as I know they can't actually start counting the votes until 10pm on Sunday and it'll take at least 2 or 3 hours before any results because the constituencies are so large. The North East is a small one, but the others could take until 5 or 6 o'clock in the morning. Only verification is allowed before 10pm on Sunday.
> >
> >
> >
> > At least that's how it's always been done at previous Euro elections.
> >
> >
> >
> > Cornwall are verifying tomorrow morning according to this.
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/ldnik/status/1131719224773283841
> >
> >
> >
> > My council say counting will begin afternoon of Sunday. If that is not allowed I hope someone tells them soon!
> >
> > http://www.wiltshire.gov.uk/news/articles/count-at-election
>
> I always knew Wiltshire was a rogue county.
What they could mean is they will be preparing to start counting at 10pm, so they get everything ready during the afternoon, so that it can get off to a flying start without any delays. In other words, it's not a case of people arriving to count the votes at 10pm, they can be there beforehand.
> > @Greenwich_Floater said:
>
> > will all of the counts be finished by 10pm Sunday?
>
>
>
> Do you mean verification? They should have finished that by then. They start counting the votes at 10pm on Sunday, with the first results coming through at about 1am, probably from the North East region.
>
> I thought some places were counting earlier, mid afternoon on Sunday, they just cannot release the results until 10pm?> @kle4 said:
>
> > > @kle4 said:
>
> >
>
> > > So, done with verification. Has May resigned yet?
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > I don't know whether most areas are doing verification tomorrow or waiting until Sunday evening. Only a few appear to have done it tonight. Nothing from London.
>
> >
>
> > I was at one in Wiltshire. Proper doing things at night, the way God intended.
>
>
>
> I'm told that experienced scrutineers can get a good idea of how people have voted from the verification process.
>
> I find that hard to believe to put it mildly. It sounds like a few people got lucky once in a guess, or in the retelling their predictive prowess is exaggerated
Not at all. If papers are verified face up - as is normal UK practice - a good tally can get a very close estimate of the result. I have done it many times. But I heard that this time the papers are being verified face down (like at postal vote verifications, from which any rumours are mostly nonsense as you say).
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> >
> > > will all of the counts be finished by 10pm Sunday?
> >
> >
> >
> > Do you mean verification? They should have finished that by then. They start counting the votes at 10pm on Sunday, with the first results coming through at about 1am, probably from the North East region.
> >
> > I thought some places were counting earlier, mid afternoon on Sunday, they just cannot release the results until 10pm?> @kle4 said:
> >
> > > > @kle4 said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > So, done with verification. Has May resigned yet?
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I don't know whether most areas are doing verification tomorrow or waiting until Sunday evening. Only a few appear to have done it tonight. Nothing from London.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I was at one in Wiltshire. Proper doing things at night, the way God intended.
> >
> >
> >
> > I'm told that experienced scrutineers can get a good idea of how people have voted from the verification process.
> >
> > I find that hard to believe to put it mildly. It sounds like a few people got lucky once in a guess, or in the retelling their predictive prowess is exaggerated
>
> Not at all. If papers are verified face up - as is normal UK practice - a good tally can get a very close estimate of the result. I have done it many times. But I heard that this time the papers are being verified face down (like at postal vote verifications, from which any rumours are mostly nonsense as you say).
>
>
Agree. Watched face up verification lots of times. As long as you witness most ballot boxes and know what polling stations they are from, which you normally can you can get the result, unless it is close
Councils can, but I’m not sure are obliged to, have some sort of local declaration after 10pm.
In theory it could all be done by 10.30, but I guess some laggards will be counting late.
The handful I’ve heard about have a daytime count on Sunday, I guess to avoid leaks days in advance.