> @Quincel said: > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > @murali_s said: > > > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > > Low turnout figures in strong leave areas is probably indicative of the main parties vote staying at home and is unlikely to dent TBP. It will in fact result in an even higher percentage for them that if turnout had been higher > > > > > > That's one hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is that if turnout is low in Leave areas and high(er) in Remain areas, the LDs and Greens will do well. > > > > > > Personally I feel low turnout in Leave areas will mean that the Brexit Party will underperform vs. expectation. > > > > That might be true, however they would have been expected to perform well in those areas anyway, so they could still end up with a large chunk of the vote. > > One issue is that we don't have particularly good baselines from the polling, which is quite variable. If TBP get 31% of the vote it might look disappointing after so many polls ended with them surging to 35%+, but maybe those polls were wrong and without them we'd have thought anything above 30% (and likely a win) would be remarkable. > > What I'm trying to get at is, if TBP get less than we expected we won't really know if they had a bad day or the polls were always wrong and they performed fine on the day.
What percentage for Labour does Jezza come under serious pressure. He's had a bit a free pass with the Tories imploding over Brexit, but something south of 15% coupled with the locals (which were almost as woeful for Labour as the Tories) surely raises the question again. At what point does Len step in?
> @NickPalmer said: > > @Mortimer said: > > > @NickPalmer said: > > > Anecdata from my side - Surrey Labour *members* seem to have stayed loyal although several said they had been reluctant - partly they were still glowing from electoral success in the locals and didn't want to spoil it. But several said that they had normally Labour friends who were going LD or Green, and I do think the LDs will do very well. > > > > > > An old apolitical friend back in Nottingham says she voted UKIP, and she's not even a Leave supporter and doesn't care about immigrants - she just wanted to protest that everyone was rubbish by voting for the smallest party. Never assume every voter is entirely judicious and rational... > > > > Presumably Labour branches in Surrey are somewhat on the small side? > > Don't know in general - we have 480 members in SW Surrey, which is a lot more than a few years ago, though it's been stationary for a year or so. But as noted below, merely squeaking members is not great, and my circle is mostly pretty motivated. People at work are all over the spectrum, though, and only a couple seemed especially interested.
Indeed. I still think Con and Lab might be fighting it out for lowest main party position nationally...
> Low turnout figures in strong leave areas is probably indicative of the main parties vote staying at home and is unlikely to dent TBP. It will in fact result in an even higher percentage for them that if turnout had been higher
That's one hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is that if turnout is low in Leave areas and high(er) in Remain areas, the LDs and Greens will do well.
Personally I feel low turnout in Leave areas will mean that the Brexit Party will underperform vs. expectation.
Yes, that is my feeling too.
Habitual voters are voting occasional voters are not. I think this good for LibDems and Tories, bad for Labour and BXP.
I am happy with my prediction of 33% turnout from last night.
> @Greenwich_Floater said: > What percentage for Labour does Jezza come under serious pressure. He's had a bit a free pass with the Tories imploding over Brexit, but something south of 15% coupled with the locals (which were almost as woeful for Labour as the Tories) surely raises the question again. At what point does Len step in?
Labour would have to poll sub 5% for Corbyn's position to be vulnerable. He's safe for now...
> > Indeed. I still think Con and Lab might be fighting it out for lowest main party position nationally...
That might be a stretch but for it to be close, it would need the Con vote to be have been far most robust that thought, rather than a total Lab collapse, which I can't quite see
> @murali_s said: > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > Low turnout figures in strong leave areas is probably indicative of the main parties vote staying at home and is unlikely to dent TBP. It will in fact result in an even higher percentage for them that if turnout had been higher > > That's one hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is that if turnout is low in Leave areas and high(er) in Remain areas, the LDs and Greens will do well. > > Personally I feel low turnout in Leave areas will mean that the Brexit Party will underperform vs. expectation.
I agree, I'd be looking at the lower end of expectations for the Brexit Party based on this very limited information.
> @Quincel said: > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > @murali_s said: > > > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > > Low turnout figures in strong leave areas is probably indicative of the main parties vote staying at home and is unlikely to dent TBP. It will in fact result in an even higher percentage for them that if turnout had been higher > > > > > > That's one hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is that if turnout is low in Leave areas and high(er) in Remain areas, the LDs and Greens will do well. > > > > > > Personally I feel low turnout in Leave areas will mean that the Brexit Party will underperform vs. expectation. > > > > That might be true, however they would have been expected to perform well in those areas anyway, so they could still end up with a large chunk of the vote. > > One issue is that we don't have particularly good baselines from the polling, which is quite variable. If TBP get 31% of the vote it might look disappointing after so many polls ended with them surging to 35%+, but maybe those polls were wrong and without them we'd have thought anything above 30% (and likely a win) would be remarkable. > > What I'm trying to get at is, if TBP get less than we expected we won't really know if they had a bad day or the polls were always wrong and they performed fine on the day.
Which is symptomatic of non–herding polling. If Labour, for example, score 20% is that good or bad? The Tories on 12%? On historical terms it is catastrophic, but it easily beats their worst polling, whilst falling way short of their best. What if BP score 30%? The same. So, there would be summat for everyone, depending on their persuasion.
Regardless of whether turnout is better than normal EU elections the big issue is that the polling is way out on turnout .
So just for example the BMG had 46 % certain to vote 10/10 , others had higher figures . We’re currently running 10% below at least .
Polls always overestimate certainty to vote. As long as you end up with a sample that looks like the people who will actually get off their arse and vote it shouldn’t have any affect on voteshares.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > Are we going to need another polling inquiry?
I think a lot of the variation has come down to the methodology of filtering likelyhood to turn out. Wasn't one pollster predicting something north of 60% turnout? Clearly that will be wrong.
does anybody know if the 'Perder' period ends tomorrow? where government departments and agency's are not meant to releases information?
I have been looking forward to seeing the 2018 Trade union reports on the Certification Office, to see how the change in rules for political funds are having an effect, or not.
> @williamglenn said: > Intuitively, the group most certain to turn out in these elections was radical Remainers, not Brexit Party enthusiasts.
Radical Remainers will have split their vote between LD, Greens, CUK, SNP and Plaid whereas hard Brexiteers will almost all be voting Brexit Party with a handful voting UKIP
If we are going to be arsed validating the ballots and producing turnout why oh why can we not have the results? Dutch are doing it. Then we could focus on the really important stuff. Like next failed Tory PM.
> @Quincel said: > There's only one bet I feel better about now than I did 4 hours ago - turnout 30% to 40%. And I haven't even gotten it on. > > We can splice and dice these numbers all we want, the main fact to come out of them is no radical change from 2014.
And UKIP won in 2014 on a 35% turnout nationwide so the Brexit Party should still win if that is the national figure
> @BigRich said: > does anybody know if the 'Perder' period ends tomorrow? where government departments and agency's are not meant to releases information? > > I have been looking forward to seeing the 2018 Trade union reports on the Certification Office, to see how the change in rules for political funds are having an effect, or not.
IANAL, but my understanding is that Purdah usually ends when polls closes.
Not sure if different cos some EU polls haven't happened yet.
> @Greenwich_Floater said: > > @williamglenn said: > > Intuitively, the group most certain to turn out in these elections was radical Remainers, not Brexit Party enthusiasts. > > Possibly, but not sure I agree. Problem also is the remain vote is being share more than the leaver vote
The other way round. A hard Brexiter who doesn't like Farage stays home. A hard remainer who doesn't like Cable votes Green. Or SNP. Or Plaid. Choice breeds engagement, surely?
> @HYUFD said: > > @Quincel said: > > There's only one bet I feel better about now than I did 4 hours ago - turnout 30% to 40%. And I haven't even gotten it on. > > > > We can splice and dice these numbers all we want, the main fact to come out of them is no radical change from 2014. > > And UKIP won in 2014 on a 35% turnout nationwide so the Brexit Party should still win if that is the national figure >
I have a feeling overall turnout will be in the high 30s. Have a sneaky suspicion that many 'Remain' areas will have significantly higher turnout than 2014. Time will tell as ever...
> @brokenwheel said: > Regardless of whether turnout is better than normal EU elections the big issue is that the polling is way out on turnout . > > So just for example the BMG had 46 % certain to vote 10/10 , others had higher figures . We’re currently running 10% below at least . > > Polls always overestimate certainty to vote. As long as you end up with a sample that looks like the people who will actually get off their arse and vote it shouldn’t have any affect on voteshares.
That’s true but another issue is the wild differences between the vote share for Lab Lib Dems .
As above, Yougov got 2014 pretty much spot on and their last poll of the campaign had 55% certain to vote. Polls always overstate certainty to vote, it doesn’t mean they’re wrong.
> @KentRising said: > > @nico67 said: > > YouGov last poll had 54% certain to vote 10/10. > > > > This is looking like a polling disaster ! > > I smell Lib Dem victory.
I do hope so, I got on at 130/1 with an odds boost from Shadsy.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Quincel said: > > > > And UKIP won in 2014 on a 35% turnout nationwide so the Brexit Party should still win if that is the national figure > I would say that given that there will be a lot more stay at home LAB and CON supporters, that it is even more likely.
> @ah009 said: > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > Intuitively, the group most certain to turn out in these elections was radical Remainers, not Brexit Party enthusiasts. > > > > Possibly, but not sure I agree. Problem also is the remain vote is being share more than the leaver vote > > The other way round. A hard Brexiter who doesn't like Farage stays home. A hard remainer who doesn't like Cable votes Green. Or SNP. Or Plaid. Choice breeds engagement, surely?
Possibly but it wont help one of those parties win overall, whereas leavers have a very clear focal point
> @HYUFD said: > And UKIP won in 2014 on a 35% turnout nationwide so the Brexit Party should still win if that is the national figure >
If this is about differential turnout, forget about the percentages. The question is how many Remainers turned out, and whether the Brexit Party can match that total.
Vs 38.4 from last time. So yes, it looks very much like growth in areas that voted Remain.
What makes this trickier to predict is that this is also a strong Tory area - or was last time. Tories topped the poll in B&NES in 2014 with 27%. UKIP on 24.8%, Lab and Lds around 14-15% each.
And from what we're seeing Tory shares are cratering whilst TBP ones are holding.
I suspect growth in LD support, but also lots of switchers from Con to TBP
Remain-y areas all experiencing noticeably higher turnout than Brexit-y ones. I'm calling a 'Remain Alliance' victory and a second referendum at some stage in the next 12 months.
> @Greenwich_Floater said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > Intuitively, the group most certain to turn out in these elections was radical Remainers, not Brexit Party enthusiasts. > > > > > > Possibly, but not sure I agree. Problem also is the remain vote is being share more than the leaver vote > > > > The other way round. A hard Brexiter who doesn't like Farage stays home. A hard remainer who doesn't like Cable votes Green. Or SNP. Or Plaid. Choice breeds engagement, surely? > > Possibly but it wont help one of those parties win overall, whereas leavers have a very clear focal point
Ah yes. In terms of MEP numbers you might be right. In terms of proxy referendum narratives, no. Focused voting is great if you're trying to form a government. But then, people would want policies, so the Brexit Nigel Party would have to start from a different place.
> @williamglenn said: > > @HYUFD said: > > And UKIP won in 2014 on a 35% turnout nationwide so the Brexit Party should still win if that is the national figure > > > > If this is about differential turnout, forget about the percentages. The question is how many Remainers turned out, and whether the Brexit Party can match that total.
Of course they can as the Remain vote will be split 4 ways and we have already now had a Leave council with 40% turnout, South Somerset
It does seem that the #BollocksToBrexit vote is better motivated to turnout than the #Leave vote. Both major parties should take note. Lab in 4th place IMO.
> @HYUFD said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > And UKIP won in 2014 on a 35% turnout nationwide so the Brexit Party should still win if that is the national figure > > > > > > > If this is about differential turnout, forget about the percentages. The question is how many Remainers turned out, and whether the Brexit Party can match that total. > > Of course they can as the Remain vote will be split 4 ways and we have already now had a Leave council with 40% turnout, South Somerset
Brexit Party are definitely going to get the most votes, it's just whether they get in the 20s or 30s.
Vs 38.4 from last time. So yes, it looks very much like growth in areas that voted Remain.
What makes this trickier to predict is that this is also a strong Tory area - or was last time. Tories topped the poll in B&NES in 2014 with 27%. UKIP on 24.8%, Lab and Lds around 14-15% each.
"was" is the operative word. The Lib Dems took BANES at the locals.
Insofar as you can guess anything from a few sketchy turnout figures, this is looking promising for the Lib Dems.
> @KentRising said: > > @nico67 said: > > YouGov last poll had 54% certain to vote 10/10. > > > > This is looking like a polling disaster ! > > I smell Lib Dem victory.
It would be amusing to watch the tantrums from the ERG as they discovered they were mistaken once again.
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > > > > Isn’t that what I said? > > > > I wasn't contradicting you, just adding more information! > > Ah ok... unusual! > > Is it as obvious as it looks? High turnout in Remain areas bad for BXP?
We won't know for anything like sure until we get actual results, but I've had a nibble at 33/1 against TBP. We're still in extremely early days but there is a possible trend here, and higher turnout in remain areas is encouraging for remain parties - albeit far far FAR from certain.
Speaking as a Wiganer, those are pisspoor turnouts. Lower than for a foregone conclusion Council election. Given that there are only 2 games in town, extrapolate poor for Brexit and Labour.
A brief reminder that if Labour actually do win then Jeremy Corbyn will have achieved what Tony Blair never did. I doubt I'll get to use that piece of trivia once the results are known, so I'm using it now.
Another high Leave area . This is all very strange , either Remainers are all staying home in these Leave areas and the BP are maxing out their voters or the results on Sunday are going to be a bit closer . I still expect a clear win for the BP . It might be these turnouts really mess up the other placings.
> I wasn't contradicting you, just adding more information!
>
> Ah ok... unusual!
>
> Is it as obvious as it looks? High turnout in Remain areas bad for BXP?
We won't know for anything like sure until we get actual results, but I've had a nibble at 33/1 against TBP. We're still in extremely early days but there is a possible trend here, and higher turnout in remain areas is encouraging for remain parties - albeit far far FAR from certain.
Totally off topic, just started watching hunt for jahadi john...now isis have fallen, had their been any news of john cantley, the captured journalist they used for doing propaganda pieces.
I'm not saying this is the case, but there is a chance that in leave areas, the vote for all of the other parties has collapsed, whereas in remain areas, both the leave and remain vote is motivated.
I think TBP will be comfortably in the 30s overall.
> @ah009 said: > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > Intuitively, the group most certain to turn out in these elections was radical Remainers, not Brexit Party enthusiasts. > > > > Possibly, but not sure I agree. Problem also is the remain vote is being share more than the leaver vote > > The other way round. A hard Brexiter who doesn't like Farage stays home. A hard remainer who doesn't like Cable votes Green. Or SNP. Or Plaid. Choice breeds engagement, surely?
There is something in that. There is no easy choice for a Brexiteer identifying with the left.
> @nico67 said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > https://twitter.com/durhamcouncil/status/1131709209580638208 > > Another high Leave area . This is all very strange , either Remainers are all staying home in these Leave areas and the BP are maxing out their voters or the results on Sunday are going to be a bit closer . I still expect a clear win for the BP . It might be these turnouts really mess up the other placings.
I think the main impact will be the BP win but not by as big a margin as some polls predicted, the LDs take a clear second and the Tories could even beat Labour for third.
Turnout seems to be highest in Tory or LD seats and lowest in Labour safe seats or Tory and Labour marginals
> @Greenwich_Floater said: > I'm not saying this is the case, but there is a chance that in leave areas, the vote for all of the other parties has collapsed, whereas in remain areas, both the leave and remain vote is motivated. > > I think TBP will be comfortably in the 30s overall.
Absolutely possible. We need to remember how little we still know at this point. It's not a fool's errand to speculate on these figures, but it is speculation.
> @AndyJS said: > > @nico67 said: > > YouGov last poll had 54% certain to vote 10/10. > > > > This is looking like a polling disaster ! > > I still think we could hit 40% overall from the figures I've seen so far.
> @murali_s said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > YouGov last poll had 54% certain to vote 10/10. > > > > > > This is looking like a polling disaster ! > > > > I still think we could hit 40% overall from the figures I've seen so far. > > 39.99% would do me!
If I had to make a prediction I'd say 38% as the most likely figure.
> @RobD said: > I assume someone is working on a turnout vs. leave chart?
I'm not - but comparing a few turnout announcements as and when they come in, it seems to me that rural Leave areas in the south are seeing a small uptick in turnout. As are urban Remain areas.
I think the big difference vs 2014 will be switchers in the shires.
Last time they voted Tory and UKIP. This time. I think they're going BP.
> @nico67 said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > https://twitter.com/durhamcouncil/status/1131709209580638208 > > Another high Leave area . This is all very strange , either Remainers are all staying home in these Leave areas and the BP are maxing out their voters or the results on Sunday are going to be a bit closer . I still expect a clear win for the BP . It might be these turnouts really mess up the other placings.
I think you're overcomplicating it. There has clearly been lower motivation in the Brexit areas, probably many staying away in protest as they believe the election shouldn't be happening at all of course. Remainers have been galvanised. If the Brexit Party do still win, it won't be by much and their expectation management has been non-existent. Expect this election to feed into the revoke/second referendum momentum.
Comments
> > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > @murali_s said:
> > > > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > > Low turnout figures in strong leave areas is probably indicative of the main parties vote staying at home and is unlikely to dent TBP. It will in fact result in an even higher percentage for them that if turnout had been higher
> > >
> > > That's one hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is that if turnout is low in Leave areas and high(er) in Remain areas, the LDs and Greens will do well.
> > >
> > > Personally I feel low turnout in Leave areas will mean that the Brexit Party will underperform vs. expectation.
> >
> > That might be true, however they would have been expected to perform well in those areas anyway, so they could still end up with a large chunk of the vote.
>
> One issue is that we don't have particularly good baselines from the polling, which is quite variable. If TBP get 31% of the vote it might look disappointing after so many polls ended with them surging to 35%+, but maybe those polls were wrong and without them we'd have thought anything above 30% (and likely a win) would be remarkable.
>
> What I'm trying to get at is, if TBP get less than we expected we won't really know if they had a bad day or the polls were always wrong and they performed fine on the day.
Fully agree, but perceptions do mater.
> > @Mortimer said:
> > > @NickPalmer said:
> > > Anecdata from my side - Surrey Labour *members* seem to have stayed loyal although several said they had been reluctant - partly they were still glowing from electoral success in the locals and didn't want to spoil it. But several said that they had normally Labour friends who were going LD or Green, and I do think the LDs will do very well.
> > >
> > > An old apolitical friend back in Nottingham says she voted UKIP, and she's not even a Leave supporter and doesn't care about immigrants - she just wanted to protest that everyone was rubbish by voting for the smallest party. Never assume every voter is entirely judicious and rational...
> >
> > Presumably Labour branches in Surrey are somewhat on the small side?
>
> Don't know in general - we have 480 members in SW Surrey, which is a lot more than a few years ago, though it's been stationary for a year or so. But as noted below, merely squeaking members is not great, and my circle is mostly pretty motivated. People at work are all over the spectrum, though, and only a couple seemed especially interested.
Indeed. I still think Con and Lab might be fighting it out for lowest main party position nationally...
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > https://twitter.com/west_suffolk/status/1131701790725083141
>
> That was 63 % Leave .
>
Would have been a turnout of about 35% last time. There's been a merger of two councils recently: Forest Heath and St Edmundsbury.
Habitual voters are voting occasional voters are not. I think this good for LibDems and Tories, bad for Labour and BXP.
I am happy with my prediction of 33% turnout from last night.
> What percentage for Labour does Jezza come under serious pressure. He's had a bit a free pass with the Tories imploding over Brexit, but something south of 15% coupled with the locals (which were almost as woeful for Labour as the Tories) surely raises the question again. At what point does Len step in?
Labour would have to poll sub 5% for Corbyn's position to be vulnerable. He's safe for now...
>
> Indeed. I still think Con and Lab might be fighting it out for lowest main party position nationally...
That might be a stretch but for it to be close, it would need the Con vote to be have been far most robust that thought, rather than a total Lab collapse, which I can't quite see
Stranger things have happened, but not often.
> > @isam said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/danbeardunison/status/1131697865762508800
>
>
>
>
>
> 27.1% in 2014.
>
> And as pointed out on Twitter, this was a place Farage chose for one of his rallies.
... motivating leavers and remainers alike
> > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > Low turnout figures in strong leave areas is probably indicative of the main parties vote staying at home and is unlikely to dent TBP. It will in fact result in an even higher percentage for them that if turnout had been higher
>
> That's one hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is that if turnout is low in Leave areas and high(er) in Remain areas, the LDs and Greens will do well.
>
> Personally I feel low turnout in Leave areas will mean that the Brexit Party will underperform vs. expectation.
I agree, I'd be looking at the lower end of expectations for the Brexit Party based on this very limited information.
> So the Conservatives finish on 15% of the vote and claim a moral victory.
> Stranger things have happened, but not often.
If the Tories get any near 15%, I'll eat my hat on live TV (credit P.Ashdown, 2015)
So just for example the BMG had 46 % certain to vote 10/10 , others had higher figures . We’re currently running 10% below at least .
We can splice and dice these numbers all we want, the main fact to come out of them is no radical change from 2014.
> > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > @murali_s said:
> > > > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > > Low turnout figures in strong leave areas is probably indicative of the main parties vote staying at home and is unlikely to dent TBP. It will in fact result in an even higher percentage for them that if turnout had been higher
> > >
> > > That's one hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is that if turnout is low in Leave areas and high(er) in Remain areas, the LDs and Greens will do well.
> > >
> > > Personally I feel low turnout in Leave areas will mean that the Brexit Party will underperform vs. expectation.
> >
> > That might be true, however they would have been expected to perform well in those areas anyway, so they could still end up with a large chunk of the vote.
>
> One issue is that we don't have particularly good baselines from the polling, which is quite variable. If TBP get 31% of the vote it might look disappointing after so many polls ended with them surging to 35%+, but maybe those polls were wrong and without them we'd have thought anything above 30% (and likely a win) would be remarkable.
>
> What I'm trying to get at is, if TBP get less than we expected we won't really know if they had a bad day or the polls were always wrong and they performed fine on the day.
Which is symptomatic of non–herding polling. If Labour, for example, score 20% is that good or bad? The Tories on 12%? On historical terms it is catastrophic, but it easily beats their worst polling, whilst falling way short of their best.
What if BP score 30%? The same.
So, there would be summat for everyone, depending on their persuasion.
> Intuitively, the group most certain to turn out in these elections was radical Remainers, not Brexit Party enthusiasts.
Possibly, but not sure I agree. Problem also is the remain vote is being share more than the leaver vote
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4u4n73fn13/Full_EU_Poll_Final_for_Times_website.pdf
Only the EU etc
> Are we going to need another polling inquiry?
I think a lot of the variation has come down to the methodology of filtering likelyhood to turn out. Wasn't one pollster predicting something north of 60% turnout? Clearly that will be wrong.
I have been looking forward to seeing the 2018 Trade union reports on the Certification Office, to see how the change in rules for political funds are having an effect, or not.
> Are we going to need another polling inquiry?
This is the first time the post-2016 tweaks to weight for Leave/Remain have really been stress-tested.
> Intuitively, the group most certain to turn out in these elections was radical Remainers, not Brexit Party enthusiasts.
Radical Remainers will have split their vote between LD, Greens, CUK, SNP and Plaid whereas hard Brexiteers will almost all be voting Brexit Party with a handful voting UKIP
This is looking like a polling disaster !
Then we could focus on the really important stuff. Like next failed Tory PM.
> There's only one bet I feel better about now than I did 4 hours ago - turnout 30% to 40%. And I haven't even gotten it on.
>
> We can splice and dice these numbers all we want, the main fact to come out of them is no radical change from 2014.
And UKIP won in 2014 on a 35% turnout nationwide so the Brexit Party should still win if that is the national figure
> YouGov last poll had 54% certain to vote 10/10.
>
> This is looking like a polling disaster !
I smell Lib Dem victory.
> does anybody know if the 'Perder' period ends tomorrow? where government departments and agency's are not meant to releases information?
>
> I have been looking forward to seeing the 2018 Trade union reports on the Certification Office, to see how the change in rules for political funds are having an effect, or not.
IANAL, but my understanding is that Purdah usually ends when polls closes.
Not sure if different cos some EU polls haven't happened yet.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > Intuitively, the group most certain to turn out in these elections was radical Remainers, not Brexit Party enthusiasts.
>
> Possibly, but not sure I agree. Problem also is the remain vote is being share more than the leaver vote
The other way round. A hard Brexiter who doesn't like Farage stays home. A hard remainer who doesn't like Cable votes Green. Or SNP. Or Plaid. Choice breeds engagement, surely?
> > @Quincel said:
> > There's only one bet I feel better about now than I did 4 hours ago - turnout 30% to 40%. And I haven't even gotten it on.
> >
> > We can splice and dice these numbers all we want, the main fact to come out of them is no radical change from 2014.
>
> And UKIP won in 2014 on a 35% turnout nationwide so the Brexit Party should still win if that is the national figure
>
I have a feeling overall turnout will be in the high 30s. Have a sneaky suspicion that many 'Remain' areas will have significantly higher turnout than 2014. Time will tell as ever...
> Regardless of whether turnout is better than normal EU elections the big issue is that the polling is way out on turnout .
>
> So just for example the BMG had 46 % certain to vote 10/10 , others had higher figures . We’re currently running 10% below at least .
>
> Polls always overestimate certainty to vote. As long as you end up with a sample that looks like the people who will actually get off their arse and vote it shouldn’t have any affect on voteshares.
That’s true but another issue is the wild differences between the vote share for Lab Lib Dems .
> Are we going to need another polling inquiry?
Yes. 101%
Are BXP a lay at 1/33???
> > @nico67 said:
> > YouGov last poll had 54% certain to vote 10/10.
> >
> > This is looking like a polling disaster !
>
> I smell Lib Dem victory.
I do hope so, I got on at 130/1 with an odds boost from Shadsy.
> > @Quincel said:
> >
>
> And UKIP won in 2014 on a 35% turnout nationwide so the Brexit Party should still win if that is the national figure
>
I would say that given that there will be a lot more stay at home LAB and CON supporters, that it is even more likely.
The interesting thing will be the LDEM vote share
>
> A Remain area...
Referendum result:
https://twitter.com/TheWeekInEditor/status/746238759541190656
https://twitter.com/southsomersetdc/status/1131708130000293888?s=21
> > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > Intuitively, the group most certain to turn out in these elections was radical Remainers, not Brexit Party enthusiasts.
> >
> > Possibly, but not sure I agree. Problem also is the remain vote is being share more than the leaver vote
>
> The other way round. A hard Brexiter who doesn't like Farage stays home. A hard remainer who doesn't like Cable votes Green. Or SNP. Or Plaid. Choice breeds engagement, surely?
Possibly but it wont help one of those parties win overall, whereas leavers have a very clear focal point
South Somerset first Leave area to hit 40%
> And UKIP won in 2014 on a 35% turnout nationwide so the Brexit Party should still win if that is the national figure
>
If this is about differential turnout, forget about the percentages. The question is how many Remainers turned out, and whether the Brexit Party can match that total.
>
> Isn’t that what I said?
I wasn't contradicting you, just adding more information!
>
> I do hope so, I got on at 130/1 with an odds boost from Shadsy.
I think those odds are reasonably representative of the reality of the situation - but best of luck
> https://twitter.com/bathnes/status/1131706983084634113
Vs 38.4 from last time. So yes, it looks very much like growth in areas that voted Remain.
What makes this trickier to predict is that this is also a strong Tory area - or was last time. Tories topped the poll in B&NES in 2014 with 27%. UKIP on 24.8%, Lab and Lds around 14-15% each.
And from what we're seeing Tory shares are cratering whilst TBP ones are holding.
I suspect growth in LD support, but also lots of switchers from Con to TBP
> https://twitter.com/bathnes/status/1131706983084634113?s=20
Is that up or down on last time?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/bathnes/status/1131706983084634113?s=20
>
> Is that up or down on last time?
Up about 6%.
Dunno how reliable? You would maybe expect Bristol turnout to be higher?
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/bathnes/status/1131706983084634113?s=20
> >
> > Is that up or down on last time?
>
> Up about 6%.
Where are the 2014 figures? Many thanks all for posting here btw.
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > Intuitively, the group most certain to turn out in these elections was radical Remainers, not Brexit Party enthusiasts.
> > >
> > > Possibly, but not sure I agree. Problem also is the remain vote is being share more than the leaver vote
> >
> > The other way round. A hard Brexiter who doesn't like Farage stays home. A hard remainer who doesn't like Cable votes Green. Or SNP. Or Plaid. Choice breeds engagement, surely?
>
> Possibly but it wont help one of those parties win overall, whereas leavers have a very clear focal point
Ah yes. In terms of MEP numbers you might be right. In terms of proxy referendum narratives, no.
Focused voting is great if you're trying to form a government. But then, people would want policies, so the Brexit Nigel Party would have to start from a different place.
Is it as obvious as it looks? High turnout in Remain areas bad for BXP?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > And UKIP won in 2014 on a 35% turnout nationwide so the Brexit Party should still win if that is the national figure
> >
>
> If this is about differential turnout, forget about the percentages. The question is how many Remainers turned out, and whether the Brexit Party can match that total.
Of course they can as the Remain vote will be split 4 ways and we have already now had a Leave council with 40% turnout, South Somerset
> https://twitter.com/durhamcouncil/status/1131709209580638208
It does seem that the #BollocksToBrexit vote is better motivated to turnout than the #Leave vote. Both major parties should take note. Lab in 4th place IMO.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > And UKIP won in 2014 on a 35% turnout nationwide so the Brexit Party should still win if that is the national figure
> > >
> >
> > If this is about differential turnout, forget about the percentages. The question is how many Remainers turned out, and whether the Brexit Party can match that total.
>
> Of course they can as the Remain vote will be split 4 ways and we have already now had a Leave council with 40% turnout, South Somerset
Brexit Party are definitely going to get the most votes, it's just whether they get in the 20s or 30s.
> https://twitter.com/wigancouncil/status/1131708056583249921
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/southsomersetdc/status/1131708130000293888
"26.8%. Thank you for voting."
That last sentence almost sounds like throwing shade.
> > @SirNorfolkPassmore said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/bathnes/status/1131706983084634113?s=20
> > >
> > > Is that up or down on last time?
> >
> > Up about 6%.
>
> Where are the 2014 figures? Many thanks all for posting here btw.
You can download the data from here:
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/RP14-32
Insofar as you can guess anything from a few sketchy turnout figures, this is looking promising for the Lib Dems.
> > @nico67 said:
> > YouGov last poll had 54% certain to vote 10/10.
> >
> > This is looking like a polling disaster !
>
> I smell Lib Dem victory.
It would be amusing to watch the tantrums from the ERG as they discovered they were mistaken once again.
> > @isam said:
>
> >
>
> > Isn’t that what I said?
>
>
>
> I wasn't contradicting you, just adding more information!
>
> Ah ok... unusual!
>
> Is it as obvious as it looks? High turnout in Remain areas bad for BXP?
We won't know for anything like sure until we get actual results, but I've had a nibble at 33/1 against TBP. We're still in extremely early days but there is a possible trend here, and higher turnout in remain areas is encouraging for remain parties - albeit far far FAR from certain.
https://twitter.com/bopulrafi/status/1131710790921281537?s=21
> https://twitter.com/durhamcouncil/status/1131709209580638208
Another high Leave area . This is all very strange , either Remainers are all staying home in these Leave areas and the BP are maxing out their voters or the results on Sunday are going to be a bit closer . I still expect a clear win for the BP . It might be these turnouts really mess up the other placings.
I think TBP will be comfortably in the 30s overall.
> > @Greenwich_Floater said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > Intuitively, the group most certain to turn out in these elections was radical Remainers, not Brexit Party enthusiasts.
> >
> > Possibly, but not sure I agree. Problem also is the remain vote is being share more than the leaver vote
>
> The other way round. A hard Brexiter who doesn't like Farage stays home. A hard remainer who doesn't like Cable votes Green. Or SNP. Or Plaid. Choice breeds engagement, surely?
There is something in that. There is no easy choice for a Brexiteer identifying with the left.
> https://twitter.com/southlakelanddc/status/1131711096316936192
Interestingly this was only 53% Remain in 2016.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > https://twitter.com/durhamcouncil/status/1131709209580638208
>
> Another high Leave area . This is all very strange , either Remainers are all staying home in these Leave areas and the BP are maxing out their voters or the results on Sunday are going to be a bit closer . I still expect a clear win for the BP . It might be these turnouts really mess up the other placings.
I think the main impact will be the BP win but not by as big a margin as some polls predicted, the LDs take a clear second and the Tories could even beat Labour for third.
Turnout seems to be highest in Tory or LD seats and lowest in Labour safe seats or Tory and Labour marginals
> > @isam said:
>
>
> TBP 40%+ can be laid at 11/4
I would say they are fair odds.
> Interesting...
>
> https://twitter.com/bopulrafi/status/1131710790921281537
Labour seem especially worried about these results.
I would be, too. Losing votes to both LDs and TBP is not a good position to be in.... Us Tories know....
> YouGov last poll had 54% certain to vote 10/10.
>
> This is looking like a polling disaster !
I still think we could hit 40% overall from the figures I've seen so far.
> I'm not saying this is the case, but there is a chance that in leave areas, the vote for all of the other parties has collapsed, whereas in remain areas, both the leave and remain vote is motivated.
>
> I think TBP will be comfortably in the 30s overall.
Absolutely possible. We need to remember how little we still know at this point. It's not a fool's errand to speculate on these figures, but it is speculation.
> Interesting...
>
I had to check the timeline but he's a Leaver who doesn't seem particularly pleased with the pattern of the results...
Remain area.
>
>
> TBP 40%+ can be laid at 11/4
I've had some of that.
> > @nico67 said:
> > YouGov last poll had 54% certain to vote 10/10.
> >
> > This is looking like a polling disaster !
>
> I still think we could hit 40% overall from the figures I've seen so far.
39.99% would do me!
> I assume someone is working on a turnout vs. leave chart?
The chart we need is a turnout change from 2014 vs leave/remain vote. Anyone?
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > YouGov last poll had 54% certain to vote 10/10.
> > >
> > > This is looking like a polling disaster !
> >
> > I still think we could hit 40% overall from the figures I've seen so far.
>
> 39.99% would do me!
If I had to make a prediction I'd say 38% as the most likely figure.
>
> There is something in that. There is no easy choice for a Brexiteer identifying with the left.
Left and right has become a very blurred landscape for all but the most enthusiastic politics follower.
> I assume someone is working on a turnout vs. leave chart?
Good idea.
> I assume someone is working on a turnout vs. leave chart?
I'm not - but comparing a few turnout announcements as and when they come in, it seems to me that rural Leave areas in the south are seeing a small uptick in turnout. As are urban Remain areas.
I think the big difference vs 2014 will be switchers in the shires.
Last time they voted Tory and UKIP. This time. I think they're going BP.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > https://twitter.com/durhamcouncil/status/1131709209580638208
>
> Another high Leave area . This is all very strange , either Remainers are all staying home in these Leave areas and the BP are maxing out their voters or the results on Sunday are going to be a bit closer . I still expect a clear win for the BP . It might be these turnouts really mess up the other placings.
I think you're overcomplicating it. There has clearly been lower motivation in the Brexit areas, probably many staying away in protest as they believe the election shouldn't be happening at all of course. Remainers have been galvanised. If the Brexit Party do still win, it won't be by much and their expectation management has been non-existent. Expect this election to feed into the revoke/second referendum momentum.