I guess re turnout that one of the tricky aspects is how many Tories will vote? Up until, say, a week ago you'd imagine many of them would stay at home. However, both halves of the party have been incentivised. On the hard right they will clearly be out in their droves for Farage. On the left I'd have said they wouldn't bother. But how much influence will people like Michael Heseltine, Matthew Paris and Peter Oborne have in openly stating that for the first time they're voting LibDem?
We've noted that Theresa May allegedly detoxified Corbyn, but isn't the real truth that she's unintentionally detoxified the Liberal Democrats?
> @DoubleD said: > TURNOUT ALERT: Two south-west London councils forecast 40% turnout, and they are tracking lower currently. (Past performance not necessarily etc etc)
Patterns could easily change. If traditional Tories are staying at home, and if they tend to vote in the morning, you might see an unusually evening-heavy turnout pattern.
The devil is in the detail. There must be a prime minister, and that will be Theresa May even if she announces her resignation after meeting Brady tomorrow, until a successor is appointed. In other words, we might be betting on the length of a Conservative Party election process.
In the past, these party elections have been circumvented entirely when only one candidate was nominated, as when Michael Howard took over from IDS, or cut short, when the second-placed candidate withdraws before the wider membership can vote, as happened last time when Theresa May succeeded David Cameron rather sooner than he had anticipated.
So really any time between March and October is possible, even if Theresa May sets the contest in motion tomorrow. If she hangs on, perhaps even later.
I’ve put my money where my mouth is.
In less than an hour this morning, May gone by July has gone 1.74 from 1.5 😳
I'm deeply tempted by that October to December shot.
Well, the Tory party conference dates are September 29th - October 2nd. It's just possible that they'd set the result announcement for then but in practice the first week of September - back to school and all that - looks like the latest possible date.
> @ah009 said: > > @DoubleD said: > > TURNOUT ALERT: Two south-west London councils forecast 40% turnout, and they are tracking lower currently. (Past performance not necessarily etc etc) > > Patterns could easily change. If traditional Tories are staying at home, and if they tend to vote in the morning, you might see an unusually evening-heavy turnout pattern. > > Or not. Just speculation.
I'm pretty sure turnout will be around 40-45% overall. A bit higher than usual for Euro elections.
> > FWIW, turnout at my polling station in suburban GM is very high so far. Postal voting also very high. Difficult to tell whether it is the pro- or anti-Brexit camp which is most energised, though one fella did just vote with a copy of the Express under his arm.
>
> Is this the Altrincham & Sale West constituency? Just a guess.
No, the one next door - WSE.
Oh.
Sale end probably good for Remainers, Wythenshawe end probably good for Leavers.
> All pretty true. There is an odd feature of the whole discussion. Remainers voted remain with an implied term that it would be administered competently. Leavers did the same. Where we have got to now is that a plurality of folks would probably vote for any party which could guarantee that it did whatever it did with competence, even if we didn't agree with it. But I don't think there is one. There is a sort of sub debate going on, or rather not quite going on, which is: How would anyone competently lead us from here? In a sense this is more significant than whether we remain or leave. Both remaining and leaving is like repairing a small boat in a storm in the middle of the ocean a long way from land. To my mind this is a long term consequence of not getting genuine public backing for the EU project as it developed.
I agree with this, but I think the political climate is now very difficult for competent split-the-difference moderation. Whatever we think of them in other respects, both May and Corbyn have been groping for solutions that won't totally alienated half the population, and both are serious people who don't grab for any popular slogan. They are being outflanked by people who are basically re-running the referendum - Farage obviously, but the LibDems and ChUK too, neither of whom have shown the slightest interest in addressing the concerns of the 52%. Voting Brexit/UKIP on the one side or LD/ChUK on the other seems to me to vote to repeat the division that has got us into such a mess.
> @Floater said: > > @OldKingCole said: > > > @isam said: > > > Might vote Lib Dem myself! > > > > > > https://twitter.com/paulembery/status/1129800372166512640 > > > > It's grown-up politician, and professional economist, recognising that there are a variety of results which can come from a situation. > > Or to put it another way, Brexit need not be a disaster.
Cut from an interview where he also puts the negative side of the argument, and says the the balance is for Remain.
> @viewcode said: > > @Nigelb said: > > > An interesting piece of political research: > > > > > > “New research finds that voters are more likely to support a liberal candidate whose rhetoric reflects conservative values.” > > > https://psmag.com/news/framing-liberal-policies-within-conservative-values-can-be-uniquely-persuasive > > > > > > Clearly there are different possible reasons for this result, but the effect is large enough to be interesting. > > > > Tony Blair? > > That was my first thought. And he worked it out 25 years ago...
Thanks for being the only person to reply to that comment about 7 hours after I posted it! I instantly thought of Blair after seeing the article.
> @eek said: > > @RochdalePioneers said: > > > @Freggles said: > > > > > If you don't, I would advise against posting about it here. > > > > I know. And I won't. You can all speculate away as to how I eventually vote and who I am in the real world. > > > > It is a dilemma though. We lost on the 2nd because of Labour's fence sitting on Brexit. Now they want me to endorse said fence sitting. > > > > Not quite - Labour lost the Tees Valley councils because after 30 odd years people think it may be time to give someone else a go. And the Tees Valley mayor did deliver on the airport...
He *bought* the airport. He hasn't delivered on it because he can't. If there was a commercial case for operating actual flights out of it they would already be happening - plenty of disputes between airlines and airport owners and yet flights still operate.
I expect that DTV will continue to be the base of operation for Easyjet orbits at 500 feet approach training flights and little else
> @Tabman said: > > @Floater said: > > > @OldKingCole said: > > > > @isam said: > > > > Might vote Lib Dem myself! > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/paulembery/status/1129800372166512640 > > > > > > It's grown-up politician, and professional economist, recognising that there are a variety of results which can come from a situation. > > > > Or to put it another way, Brexit need not be a disaster. > > Cut from an interview where he also puts the negative side of the argument, and says the the balance is for Remain.
But again - pros and cons and need not be a disaster.
You asked me in the nether regions of the thread for my Euro election prediction.
From what I'm hearing and observations on PB I'd say differential turnout will play a significant part in the results. Strong BREXIT and REMAIN supporters will spike their respective parties and the soggy mess in the middle - Labour and Tories will correspondingly flag.
Give or take a point or two here and there I'd go for :
BP 35% .. LibDem 20% .. Lab 15% .. Con 10% .. Green 10% .. SNP/PC 5% .. CHUK/Others 5%
> @RochdalePioneers said: > > @Freggles said: > > > If you don't, I would advise against posting about it here. > > I know. And I won't. You can all speculate away as to how I eventually vote and who I am in the real world. > > It is a dilemma though. We lost on the 2nd because of Labour's fence sitting on Brexit. Now they want me to endorse said fence sitting. >
No, we want you to support us the only coherent alternative to the shambolic government. It's a Euro election but it's not going to be interpreted as only about Brexit. And in the end, we have to be a bit loyal to each other even when we don't agree on everything - otherwise we will always lose because of one disagreement or another.
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > Betfair has 1.25-ish there will be no EU referendum this year, and they are running out of time to call one. (Full disclosure: I've cashed out.)
> @Alistair said: > .> @isam said: > > > 4/6 now May goes before July 🤔 > > > > The devil is in the detail. There must be a prime minister, and that will be Theresa May even if she announces her resignation after meeting Brady tomorrow, until a successor is appointed. In other words, we might be betting on the length of a Conservative Party election process. > > > > In the past, these party elections have been circumvented entirely when only one candidate was nominated, as when Michael Howard took over from IDS, or cut short, when the second-placed candidate withdraws before the wider membership can vote, as happened last time when Theresa May succeeded David Cameron rather sooner than he had anticipated. > > > > So really any time between March and October is possible, even if Theresa May sets the contest in motion tomorrow. If she hangs on, perhaps even later. > > I’ve put my money where my mouth is. > > In less than an hour this morning, May gone by July has gone 1.74 from 1.5 😳 > > > > > I'm deeply tempted by that October to December shot.
Tory Party Conference begins on September 29th. So it's a tight run thing - will they announce on the first day or announce it on the third day before the leader gives a triumphant speech on the last day.
“New research finds that voters are more likely to support a liberal candidate whose rhetoric reflects conservative values.”
Reminds me of that wonderful moment in Yes Prime Minister when he's advised that if what he is presenting is deathly dull, he should do the broadcast with a radical attire and backdrop. Whereas, if he's announcing something really avant garde the setting should be staid and reassuring.
> @Recidivist said: > Given that we have not left and that the current situation stems from people trying to prevent our leaving your point is wildly wrong. > > It shows how hardcore Remainers never put themselves into the shoes of their ‘opponents’ that they don’t see that having a Remain PM and Parliament contrive to keep us in the EU, three years after we voted to Leave, might not feel like our side being given a go and failing. > > Well here's an opportunity to put yourself in my shoes if that is something you think is important. > > Leaving was blocked by Leave supporting MPs. I literally switched from accepting the result to wanting Article 50 revoked as a direct result of their actions. I may be unique - but I am not unique in any other way so that seems unlikely.
How do you feel about remain supporting MPs blocking revoke?
> @NickPalmer said: > > @RochdalePioneers said: > > > @Freggles said: > > > > > If you don't, I would advise against posting about it here. > > > > I know. And I won't. You can all speculate away as to how I eventually vote and who I am in the real world. > > > > It is a dilemma though. We lost on the 2nd because of Labour's fence sitting on Brexit. Now they want me to endorse said fence sitting. > > > > No, we want you to support us the only coherent alternative to the shambolic government. It's a Euro election but it's not going to be interpreted as only about Brexit. And in the end, we have to be a bit loyal to each other even when we don't agree on everything - otherwise we will always lose because of one disagreement or another.
So deselecting those that don't toe momentum's line is showing loyalty to each other when you don't agree.......
> @RochdalePioneers said: > > @eek said: > > > @RochdalePioneers said: > > > > @Freggles said: > > > > > > > If you don't, I would advise against posting about it here. > > > > > > I know. And I won't. You can all speculate away as to how I eventually vote and who I am in the real world. > > > > > > It is a dilemma though. We lost on the 2nd because of Labour's fence sitting on Brexit. Now they want me to endorse said fence sitting. > > > > > > > Not quite - Labour lost the Tees Valley councils because after 30 odd years people think it may be time to give someone else a go. And the Tees Valley mayor did deliver on the airport... > > He *bought* the airport. He hasn't delivered on it because he can't. If there was a commercial case for operating actual flights out of it they would already be happening - plenty of disputes between airlines and airport owners and yet flights still operate. > > I expect that DTV will continue to be the base of operation for Easyjet orbits at 500 feet approach training flights and little else
I expect you are right but keeping it open and the Amsterdam flights flying does make my job flying around Europe bearable. And I suspect there are a lot of chemical industry jobs that depend on it
Off to the polling station shortly. Not interested in the Leave vs Remain quasi referendum aspect of these European elections, the message I want to send with my vote is that I am not prepared to tolerate Boris Johnson as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
Struggled for a while with how best to achieve this but just now I have had a moment of inspiration, hence this post since I am keen to share. How I'll do it is I will spoil my ballot. Instead of putting a cross in any of the boxes, I will take a black marker pen and scrawl across the paper -
"I AM NOT PREPARED TO TOLERATE BORIS JOHNSON AS PRIME MINISTER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM."
> @Mysticrose said: > But how much influence will people like Michael Heseltine, Matthew Paris and Peter Oborne have in openly stating that for the first time they're voting LibDem?
> @kinabalu said: > Off to the polling station shortly. Not interested in the Leave vs Remain quasi referendum aspect of these European elections, the message I want to send with my vote is that I am not prepared to tolerate Boris Johnson as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. > > Struggled for a while with how best to achieve this but just now I have had a moment of inspiration, hence this post since I am keen to share. How I'll do it is I will spoil my ballot. Instead of putting a cross in any of the boxes, I will take a black marker pen and scrawl across the paper - > > "I AM NOT PREPARED TO TOLERATE BORIS JOHNSON AS PRIME MINISTER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM." > > In capital letters like that. > > Please do join me if you like.
> @viewcode said: > > @viewcode said: > > > > @Nigelb said: > > > > > > > An interesting piece of political research: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > “New research finds that voters are more likely to support a liberal candidate whose rhetoric reflects conservative values.” > > > > > > > https://psmag.com/news/framing-liberal-policies-within-conservative-values-can-be-uniquely-persuasive > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Clearly there are different possible reasons for this result, but the effect is large enough to be interesting. > > > > > > > > > > > > Tony Blair? > > > > > > That was my first thought. And he worked it out 25 years ago... > > > > Thanks for being the only person to reply to that comment about 7 hours after I posted it! I instantly thought of Blair after seeing the article. > > You're welcome.
Didn't see original post. Just read it. Interesting, but I would have thought obvious as well. Two areas that immediately spring to mind where the pitch can have make a huge difference is foreign aid and crime and punishment. Isn't the problem then the presentation of your policies by those you have no control over (media, opponents, etc)
> @RochdalePioneers said: > > @eek said: > > > @RochdalePioneers said: > > > > @Freggles said: > > > > > > > If you don't, I would advise against posting about it here. > > > > > > I know. And I won't. You can all speculate away as to how I eventually vote and who I am in the real world. > > > > > > It is a dilemma though. We lost on the 2nd because of Labour's fence sitting on Brexit. Now they want me to endorse said fence sitting. > > > > > > > Not quite - Labour lost the Tees Valley councils because after 30 odd years people think it may be time to give someone else a go. And the Tees Valley mayor did deliver on the airport... > > He *bought* the airport. He hasn't delivered on it because he can't. If there was a commercial case for operating actual flights out of it they would already be happening - plenty of disputes between airlines and airport owners and yet flights still operate. > > I expect that DTV will continue to be the base of operation for Easyjet orbits at 500 feet approach training flights and little else
I can tell you with some confidence that the operation of an airport is one long argument between airlines and the airport operator!!
> @TGOHF said: > > @Mysticrose said: > > But how much influence will people like Michael Heseltine, Matthew Paris and Peter Oborne have in openly stating that for the first time they're voting LibDem? > > Somewhere between zero and negligible. > > >
If these guys (Parris & Oborne) have negligible influence, why do papers pay them so much for their columns?
> @kinabalu said: > Off to the polling station shortly. Not interested in the Leave vs Remain quasi referendum aspect of these European elections, the message I want to send with my vote is that I am not prepared to tolerate Boris Johnson as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. > > Struggled for a while with how best to achieve this but just now I have had a moment of inspiration, hence this post since I am keen to share. How I'll do it is I will spoil my ballot. Instead of putting a cross in any of the boxes, I will take a black marker pen and scrawl across the paper - > > "I AM NOT PREPARED TO TOLERATE BORIS JOHNSON AS PRIME MINISTER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM." > > In capital letters like that. > > Please do join me if you like.
You could also do that whilst voting for a party. I mean, probably best to avoid Conservative or Brexit party given those votes probably increase Johnson's standing, but you can work that bit out for yourself.
> @logical_song said: > > @TGOHF said: > > > @Mysticrose said: > > > But how much influence will people like Michael Heseltine, Matthew Paris and Peter Oborne have in openly stating that for the first time they're voting LibDem? > > > > Somewhere between zero and negligible. > > > > > > > > If these guys (Parris & Oborne) have negligible influence, why do papers pay them so much for their columns?
> @logical_song said: > > @TGOHF said: > > > @Mysticrose said: > > > But how much influence will people like Michael Heseltine, Matthew Paris and Peter Oborne have in openly stating that for the first time they're voting LibDem? > > > > Somewhere between zero and negligible. > > > > > > > > If these guys (Parris & Oborne) have negligible influence, why do papers pay them so much for their columns?
You can sell papers and not influence people much (particularly at such a late stage)
> @Floater said: > > @kinabalu said: > > Off to the polling station shortly. Not interested in the Leave vs Remain quasi referendum aspect of these European elections, the message I want to send with my vote is that I am not prepared to tolerate Boris Johnson as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. > > > > Struggled for a while with how best to achieve this but just now I have had a moment of inspiration, hence this post since I am keen to share. How I'll do it is I will spoil my ballot. Instead of putting a cross in any of the boxes, I will take a black marker pen and scrawl across the paper - > > > > "I AM NOT PREPARED TO TOLERATE BORIS JOHNSON AS PRIME MINISTER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM." > > > > In capital letters like that. > > > > Please do join me if you like. > > Well that's him told then.....
Key thing is that many more than me do it.
If we end up with -
BP 15% CON 5% LAB 5% QUISLING ASSORTED REMAIN 15% OTHER 8% SPOILED 52%
Therefore spoiled ballots top the poll and all of them say "I am NOT prepared to tolerate Boris Johnson as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom" - those exact words - then the political class will have to listen.
> @kjh said: > > @viewcode said: > > > @viewcode said: > > > > > > @Nigelb said: > > > > > > > > > > > An interesting piece of political research: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > “New research finds that voters are more likely to support a liberal candidate whose rhetoric reflects conservative values.” > > > > > > > > > > > https://psmag.com/news/framing-liberal-policies-within-conservative-values-can-be-uniquely-persuasive > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Clearly there are different possible reasons for this result, but the effect is large enough to be interesting. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Tony Blair? > > > > > > > > > > That was my first thought. And he worked it out 25 years ago... > > > > > > > > Thanks for being the only person to reply to that comment about 7 hours after I posted it! I instantly thought of Blair after seeing the article. > > > > You're welcome. > > Didn't see original post. Just read it. Interesting, but I would have thought obvious as well. Two areas that immediately spring to mind where the pitch can have make a huge difference is foreign aid and crime and punishment. Isn't the problem then the presentation of your policies by those you have no control over (media, opponents, etc)
Tough on crime tough on the causes of crime. Repeated ad nauseum. Stealing your opponents territory. Foreign aid....Tough on immigration, tough on the causes...?
I've observed this site for a long time and there has been a noticeable increase in one line put-downs, ranging from pithy to dismissive. I'm not suggesting everyone needs to write an essay but there's a growing intolerance for other perspectives and an incapacity to listen to alternatives and, especially, to frame a measured and well-reasoned response. I'm not singling you out TGOHF. It's becoming endemic.
On the topic of Matthew Parris and Peter Oborne I don't think we can airily dismiss their influence as 'between zero and negligible.' A lot of people do still want to think about their choices and I know many were, and still are, wrestling with how to make them. I have observed a staggering number today on social media saying they have only decided this morning (mainly falling for Lib Dems I have to report).
The influence of some writers remains considerable, both in print and on social media. For example, Owen Jones, Polly Toynbee and Paul Mason to the left, Boris in the Telegraph. Matthew Paris is still one of the finest writers in the Times stable and Peter Oborne, like Peter Hitchens, have a considerable following.
> @argyllrs said: > Anyone think that BXP 5 of 25-29.99% is value @ 9.6 on BF Exchange?
That looks like amazing value to me. Well spotted. One of the latest opinion polls had them on about 28% IIRC. What on earth are punters thinking of to make it so high for that range?
> @Mysticrose said: > > @TGOHF said: > > > Somewhere between zero and negligible. > > I've observed this site for a long time and there has been a noticeable increase in one line put-downs, ranging from pithy to dismissive. I'm not suggesting everyone needs to write an essay but there's a growing intolerance for other perspectives and an incapacity to listen to alternatives and, especially, to frame a measured and well-reasoned response. I'm not singling you out TGOHF. It's becoming endemic. > > > On the topic of Matthew Parris and Peter Oborne I don't think we can airily dismiss their influence as 'between zero and negligible.' A lot of people do still want to think about their choices and I know many were, and still are, wrestling with how to make them. I have observed a staggering number today on social media saying they have only decided this morning (mainly falling for Lib Dems I have to report). > > The influence of some writers remains considerable, both in print and on social media. For example, Owen Jones, Polly Toynbee and Paul Mason to the left, Boris in the Telegraph. Matthew Paris is still one of the finest writers in the Times stable and Peter Oborne, like Peter Hitchens, have a considerable following.
I'd suggest that the % of the population who have heard of Matthew Parris nevermind read his articles would be <5%.
Of those - the % who take note of what he says or even like him would be a further subset.
> @kinabalu said: > > @Floater said: > > > @kinabalu said: > > > Off to the polling station shortly. Not interested in the Leave vs Remain quasi referendum aspect of these European elections, the message I want to send with my vote is that I am not prepared to tolerate Boris Johnson as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. > > > > > > Struggled for a while with how best to achieve this but just now I have had a moment of inspiration, hence this post since I am keen to share. How I'll do it is I will spoil my ballot. Instead of putting a cross in any of the boxes, I will take a black marker pen and scrawl across the paper - > > > > > > "I AM NOT PREPARED TO TOLERATE BORIS JOHNSON AS PRIME MINISTER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM." > > > > > > In capital letters like that. > > > > > > Please do join me if you like. > > > > Well that's him told then..... > > Key thing is that many more than me do it. > > If we end up with - > > BP 15% > CON 5% > LAB 5% > QUISLING ASSORTED REMAIN 15% > OTHER 8% > SPOILED 52% > > Therefore spoiled ballots top the poll and all of them say "I am NOT prepared to tolerate Boris Johnson as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom" - those exact words - then the political class will have to listen.
i can think of another 52% vote the political class are doing their very best not to listen to......
Even if she has announced her departure it seems very unlikely a successor will be elected in a week, so yes, she will still technically be con leader.
I guess re turnout that one of the tricky aspects is how many Tories will vote? Up until, say, a week ago you'd imagine many of them would stay at home. However, both halves of the party have been incentivised. On the hard right they will clearly be out in their droves for Farage. On the left I'd have said they wouldn't bother. But how much influence will people like Michael Heseltine, Matthew Paris and Peter Oborne have in openly stating that for the first time they're voting LibDem?
We've noted that Theresa May allegedly detoxified Corbyn, but isn't the real truth that she's unintentionally detoxified the Liberal Democrats?
Wow! I've just found Oborne's eulogy on EU membership. It's the most persuasive, eloquent, sincere, robust and pertinent case for Remain I've ever read. Astonishing to think that Oborne was once a Leaver who berated the media for being beastly to UKIP.
10/1 a few minutes ago for the Brexit Party to get between 25% and 30% on Betfair Exchange? Absolute madness from punters IMO. It's dropped a bit since. Thanks to argyllrs for spotting it.
When she tenders her resignation as Conservative leader, thus triggering a leadership battle, doesn't she technically cease to be Con leader and the position at the point is kind of vacant?
> I'd suggest that the % of the population who have heard of Matthew Parris nevermind read his articles would be <5%. > > Of those - the % who take note of what he says or even like him would be a further subset. >
Sunday Times print circulation is c 750,000 and the Times c. 450,000. Online global reach remains considerable. In the UK alone it exceeds 1 million. Parris may not be a prolific tweeter and only has 21,000 followers but he wasn't described by Ian Dale as 'the pre-eminent columnist of his generation' for nothing. I know I often look at his pieces, even when I frequently disagree with him.
Peter Oborne has 50,000 followers on twitter and has been influential both in the Telegraph and now with Open Democracy.
Just laid the 3.6 for BXP in "UK as a whole" to win £20.
Given they're not running in Northern Ireland and won't do much in London or Scotland that would require an extraordinary performance in provincial England and Wales.
> @AndyJS said: > > @argyllrs said: > > Anyone think that BXP 5 of 25-29.99% is value @ 9.6 on BF Exchange? > > That looks like amazing value to me. Well spotted. One of the latest opinion polls had them on about 28% IIRC. What on earth are punters thinking of to make it so high for that range?
I got it at 9.6 yesterday. Perfectly plausible as the bottom end of their range is 27%.
> @Alistair said: > Anyone think that BXP 5 of 25-29.99% is value @ 9.6 on BF Exchange? > > I took 20-30 with Ladbrokes @ 9 yesterday. > > A good value loser I think.
Same principle for laying 40% + - if they get that I'll clean up on Sporting Index at £15 a seat
> @JackW said: > > @Tabman said: > > > @JackW said: > > > BBC News - "Government pulls plans to debate BREXIT agreement for the first week of June." > > > > No surprise there. > > ......................................................... > > Indeed. As much as the little surprise to see you nip back for your occasional PB highlights flit .... > > Are clan Tabman in fine fettle ?
It's good to be back. Can it be a mere fifteen years since we first exchanged quips on Rik, Kinkell and the Order of the Cracked Champerpot?
The Clan are all well thanks, though eating me out of house and home. Perhaps they need more filling sustenance, such as Auchtenach's finest pies.
I trust all is good at Castle W, and the cellar is well stocked for what could be an interesting few days ...
> @Alistair said: > Anyone think that BXP 5 of 25-29.99% is value @ 9.6 on BF Exchange? > > I took 20-30 with Ladbrokes @ 9 yesterday. > > A good value loser I think.
BBC News - "Government pulls plans to debate BREXIT agreement for the first week of June."
Surely that's a stake through the heart of the deal - at last. We're now into a straight shootout between revoke and aggressively managed WTO brexit with sectoral mini-deals aka no deal.
> @AndyJS said: > > @Alistair said: > > Anyone think that BXP 5 of 25-29.99% is value @ 9.6 on BF Exchange? > > > > I took 20-30 with Ladbrokes @ 9 yesterday. > > > > A good value loser I think. > > Their average in the polls is about 32%.
Their implied vote % on Betfair is ~ 38% given the various odds.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @Alistair said: > > > Anyone think that BXP 5 of 25-29.99% is value @ 9.6 on BF Exchange? > > > > > > I took 20-30 with Ladbrokes @ 9 yesterday. > > > > > > A good value loser I think. > > > > Their average in the polls is about 32%. > > Their implied vote % on Betfair is ~ 38% given the various odds.
> @Tabman said: > > @JackW said: > > > @Tabman said: > > > > @JackW said: > > > > BBC News - "Government pulls plans to debate BREXIT agreement for the first week of June." > > > > > > No surprise there. > > > > ......................................................... > > > > Indeed. As much as the little surprise to see you nip back for your occasional PB highlights flit .... > > > > Are clan Tabman in fine fettle ? > > It's good to be back. Can it be a mere fifteen years since we first exchanged quips on Rik, Kinkell and the Order of the Cracked Champerpot? > > The Clan are all well thanks, though eating me out of house and home. Perhaps they need more filling sustenance, such as Auchtenach's finest pies. > > I trust all is good at Castle W, and the cellar is well stocked for what could be an interesting few days ...
We at Auchentennach Fine Pies are thrilled that the resurgence of the yellow peril will lead to a surge in production. Our new company slogan and advertising seems to fit the mood of the nation with added historical twist :
Liberal Democrat Bollocks Add Something to Auchentennach Fine Pies.
> @dixiedean said: > > @kjh said: > > > @viewcode said: > > > > @viewcode said: > > > > > > > > @Nigelb said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > An interesting piece of political research: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > “New research finds that voters are more likely to support a liberal candidate whose rhetoric reflects conservative values.” > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://psmag.com/news/framing-liberal-policies-within-conservative-values-can-be-uniquely-persuasive > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Clearly there are different possible reasons for this result, but the effect is large enough to be interesting. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Tony Blair? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > That was my first thought. And he worked it out 25 years ago... > > > > > > > > > > > > Thanks for being the only person to reply to that comment about 7 hours after I posted it! I instantly thought of Blair after seeing the article. > > > > > > You're welcome. > > > > Didn't see original post. Just read it. Interesting, but I would have thought obvious as well. Two areas that immediately spring to mind where the pitch can have make a huge difference is foreign aid and crime and punishment. Isn't the problem then the presentation of your policies by those you have no control over (media, opponents, etc) > > Tough on crime tough on the causes of crime. Repeated ad nauseum. Stealing your opponents territory. > Foreign aid....Tough on immigration, tough on the causes...?
Always ask who did the research and where it was done. There are two issues IMHO; with the increase in the number of universities there is an increase in the numbers of students casting around for 'something' to research and professors (etc) trying to get their names on published papers.
32% seems about right IMO, they will be happy with that. Given the Tory decline I struggle to see them getting the same vote share as UKIP 2014 even if they are overstated.
> @AndyJS said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > @Alistair said: > > > > Anyone think that BXP 5 of 25-29.99% is value @ 9.6 on BF Exchange? > > > > > > > > I took 20-30 with Ladbrokes @ 9 yesterday. > > > > > > > > A good value loser I think. > > > > > > Their average in the polls is about 32%. > > > > Their implied vote % on Betfair is ~ 38% given the various odds. > > Only one poll has had them that high.
GIven that poll won't include Northern Ireland and Betfair's market does even the 38% poll is undershooting their implied % on the exchange.
> @ah009 said: > Jeremy unt: > "Theresa May will be prime minister to welcome [Trump] and rightly so." > > Maybe nobody wants to be left looking after the baby. Perhaps Leadsom should do it?
Comments
> Re the odd prices on TM's exit, I think this tweet explains them - but I think people are still getting it wrong (note the quoted tweet just requires an intention to step aside).
> https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1131490327460761600
The way I see it, TM is likely to remain as Tory leader and as PM until the votes are counted in the Tory leadership election.
We've noted that Theresa May allegedly detoxified Corbyn, but isn't the real truth that she's unintentionally detoxified the Liberal Democrats?
> > @isam said:
> > Might vote Lib Dem myself!
> >
> > https://twitter.com/paulembery/status/1129800372166512640
>
> It's grown-up politician, and professional economist, recognising that there are a variety of results which can come from a situation.
Or to put it another way, Brexit need not be a disaster.
> TURNOUT ALERT: Two south-west London councils forecast 40% turnout, and they are tracking lower currently. (Past performance not necessarily etc etc)
Patterns could easily change. If traditional Tories are staying at home, and if they tend to vote in the morning, you might see an unusually evening-heavy turnout pattern.
Or not. Just speculation.
> Reasonably brisk at my OXWAB polling station this morning at 7.50am.
Sounds good for remain ! Were there any dogs there.
> > @DoubleD said:
> > TURNOUT ALERT: Two south-west London councils forecast 40% turnout, and they are tracking lower currently. (Past performance not necessarily etc etc)
>
> Patterns could easily change. If traditional Tories are staying at home, and if they tend to vote in the morning, you might see an unusually evening-heavy turnout pattern.
>
> Or not. Just speculation.
I'm pretty sure turnout will be around 40-45% overall. A bit higher than usual for Euro elections.
Sale end probably good for Remainers, Wythenshawe end probably good for Leavers.
> All pretty true. There is an odd feature of the whole discussion. Remainers voted remain with an implied term that it would be administered competently. Leavers did the same. Where we have got to now is that a plurality of folks would probably vote for any party which could guarantee that it did whatever it did with competence, even if we didn't agree with it. But I don't think there is one. There is a sort of sub debate going on, or rather not quite going on, which is: How would anyone competently lead us from here? In a sense this is more significant than whether we remain or leave. Both remaining and leaving is like repairing a small boat in a storm in the middle of the ocean a long way from land. To my mind this is a long term consequence of not getting genuine public backing for the EU project as it developed.
I agree with this, but I think the political climate is now very difficult for competent split-the-difference moderation. Whatever we think of them in other respects, both May and Corbyn have been groping for solutions that won't totally alienated half the population, and both are serious people who don't grab for any popular slogan. They are being outflanked by people who are basically re-running the referendum - Farage obviously, but the LibDems and ChUK too, neither of whom have shown the slightest interest in addressing the concerns of the 52%.
Voting Brexit/UKIP on the one side or LD/ChUK on the other seems to me to vote to repeat the division that has got us into such a mess.
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > Might vote Lib Dem myself!
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/paulembery/status/1129800372166512640
> >
> > It's grown-up politician, and professional economist, recognising that there are a variety of results which can come from a situation.
>
> Or to put it another way, Brexit need not be a disaster.
Cut from an interview where he also puts the negative side of the argument, and says the the balance is for Remain.
> > @Nigelb said:
>
> > An interesting piece of political research:
>
> >
>
> > “New research finds that voters are more likely to support a liberal candidate whose rhetoric reflects conservative values.”
>
> > https://psmag.com/news/framing-liberal-policies-within-conservative-values-can-be-uniquely-persuasive
>
> >
>
> > Clearly there are different possible reasons for this result, but the effect is large enough to be interesting.
>
>
>
> Tony Blair?
>
> That was my first thought. And he worked it out 25 years ago...
Thanks for being the only person to reply to that comment about 7 hours after I posted it! I instantly thought of Blair after seeing the article.
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > @Freggles said:
> >
> > > If you don't, I would advise against posting about it here.
> >
> > I know. And I won't. You can all speculate away as to how I eventually vote and who I am in the real world.
> >
> > It is a dilemma though. We lost on the 2nd because of Labour's fence sitting on Brexit. Now they want me to endorse said fence sitting.
> >
>
> Not quite - Labour lost the Tees Valley councils because after 30 odd years people think it may be time to give someone else a go. And the Tees Valley mayor did deliver on the airport...
He *bought* the airport. He hasn't delivered on it because he can't. If there was a commercial case for operating actual flights out of it they would already be happening - plenty of disputes between airlines and airport owners and yet flights still operate.
I expect that DTV will continue to be the base of operation for Easyjet orbits at 500 feet approach training flights and little else
> > @Floater said:
> > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > @isam said:
> > > > Might vote Lib Dem myself!
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/paulembery/status/1129800372166512640
> > >
> > > It's grown-up politician, and professional economist, recognising that there are a variety of results which can come from a situation.
> >
> > Or to put it another way, Brexit need not be a disaster.
>
> Cut from an interview where he also puts the negative side of the argument, and says the the balance is for Remain.
But again - pros and cons and need not be a disaster.
How refreshingly honest.
You asked me in the nether regions of the thread for my Euro election prediction.
From what I'm hearing and observations on PB I'd say differential turnout will play a significant part in the results. Strong BREXIT and REMAIN supporters will spike their respective parties and the soggy mess in the middle - Labour and Tories will correspondingly flag.
Give or take a point or two here and there I'd go for :
BP 35% .. LibDem 20% .. Lab 15% .. Con 10% .. Green 10% .. SNP/PC 5% .. CHUK/Others 5%
SCon placard outside the polling place was Contemptible.
> > @Freggles said:
>
> > If you don't, I would advise against posting about it here.
>
> I know. And I won't. You can all speculate away as to how I eventually vote and who I am in the real world.
>
> It is a dilemma though. We lost on the 2nd because of Labour's fence sitting on Brexit. Now they want me to endorse said fence sitting.
>
No, we want you to support us the only coherent alternative to the shambolic government. It's a Euro election but it's not going to be interpreted as only about Brexit. And in the end, we have to be a bit loyal to each other even when we don't agree on everything - otherwise we will always lose because of one disagreement or another.
> Betfair has 1.25-ish there will be no EU referendum this year, and they are running out of time to call one. (Full disclosure: I've cashed out.)
Labour lost in Wales in 2009 - to the Tories!
> .> @isam said:
>
> > 4/6 now May goes before July 🤔
>
>
>
> The devil is in the detail. There must be a prime minister, and that will be Theresa May even if she announces her resignation after meeting Brady tomorrow, until a successor is appointed. In other words, we might be betting on the length of a Conservative Party election process.
>
>
>
> In the past, these party elections have been circumvented entirely when only one candidate was nominated, as when Michael Howard took over from IDS, or cut short, when the second-placed candidate withdraws before the wider membership can vote, as happened last time when Theresa May succeeded David Cameron rather sooner than he had anticipated.
>
>
>
> So really any time between March and October is possible, even if Theresa May sets the contest in motion tomorrow. If she hangs on, perhaps even later.
>
> I’ve put my money where my mouth is.
>
> In less than an hour this morning, May gone by July has gone 1.74 from 1.5 😳
>
>
>
>
> I'm deeply tempted by that October to December shot.
Tory Party Conference begins on September 29th. So it's a tight run thing - will they announce on the first day or announce it on the third day before the leader gives a triumphant speech on the last day.
Reminds me of that wonderful moment in Yes Prime Minister when he's advised that if what he is presenting is deathly dull, he should do the broadcast with a radical attire and backdrop. Whereas, if he's announcing something really avant garde the setting should be staid and reassuring.
Here from 19'30". Just wonderful!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHkbDhzXLV4
Too late now, however it gets resolved.
> Given that we have not left and that the current situation stems from people trying to prevent our leaving your point is wildly wrong.
>
> It shows how hardcore Remainers never put themselves into the shoes of their ‘opponents’ that they don’t see that having a Remain PM and Parliament contrive to keep us in the EU, three years after we voted to Leave, might not feel like our side being given a go and failing.
>
> Well here's an opportunity to put yourself in my shoes if that is something you think is important.
>
> Leaving was blocked by Leave supporting MPs. I literally switched from accepting the result to wanting Article 50 revoked as a direct result of their actions. I may be unique - but I am not unique in any other way so that seems unlikely.
How do you feel about remain supporting MPs blocking revoke?
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > @Freggles said:
> >
> > > If you don't, I would advise against posting about it here.
> >
> > I know. And I won't. You can all speculate away as to how I eventually vote and who I am in the real world.
> >
> > It is a dilemma though. We lost on the 2nd because of Labour's fence sitting on Brexit. Now they want me to endorse said fence sitting.
> >
>
> No, we want you to support us the only coherent alternative to the shambolic government. It's a Euro election but it's not going to be interpreted as only about Brexit. And in the end, we have to be a bit loyal to each other even when we don't agree on everything - otherwise we will always lose because of one disagreement or another.
So deselecting those that don't toe momentum's line is showing loyalty to each other when you don't agree.......
> RIP Judith Kerr.
Bugger.
You can't say 95 wasn't good innings but she was a great woman.
> > @eek said:
> > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > > @Freggles said:
> > >
> > > > If you don't, I would advise against posting about it here.
> > >
> > > I know. And I won't. You can all speculate away as to how I eventually vote and who I am in the real world.
> > >
> > > It is a dilemma though. We lost on the 2nd because of Labour's fence sitting on Brexit. Now they want me to endorse said fence sitting.
> > >
> >
> > Not quite - Labour lost the Tees Valley councils because after 30 odd years people think it may be time to give someone else a go. And the Tees Valley mayor did deliver on the airport...
>
> He *bought* the airport. He hasn't delivered on it because he can't. If there was a commercial case for operating actual flights out of it they would already be happening - plenty of disputes between airlines and airport owners and yet flights still operate.
>
> I expect that DTV will continue to be the base of operation for Easyjet orbits at 500 feet approach training flights and little else
I expect you are right but keeping it open and the Amsterdam flights flying does make my job flying around Europe bearable. And I suspect there are a lot of chemical industry jobs that depend on it
Struggled for a while with how best to achieve this but just now I have had a moment of inspiration, hence this post since I am keen to share. How I'll do it is I will spoil my ballot. Instead of putting a cross in any of the boxes, I will take a black marker pen and scrawl across the paper -
"I AM NOT PREPARED TO TOLERATE BORIS JOHNSON AS PRIME MINISTER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM."
In capital letters like that.
Please do join me if you like.
> But how much influence will people like Michael Heseltine, Matthew Paris and Peter Oborne have in openly stating that for the first time they're voting LibDem?
Somewhere between zero and negligible.
> Off to the polling station shortly. Not interested in the Leave vs Remain quasi referendum aspect of these European elections, the message I want to send with my vote is that I am not prepared to tolerate Boris Johnson as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
>
> Struggled for a while with how best to achieve this but just now I have had a moment of inspiration, hence this post since I am keen to share. How I'll do it is I will spoil my ballot. Instead of putting a cross in any of the boxes, I will take a black marker pen and scrawl across the paper -
>
> "I AM NOT PREPARED TO TOLERATE BORIS JOHNSON AS PRIME MINISTER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM."
>
> In capital letters like that.
>
> Please do join me if you like.
Well that's him told then.....
> > @viewcode said:
>
> > > @Nigelb said:
>
> >
>
> > > An interesting piece of political research:
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > “New research finds that voters are more likely to support a liberal candidate whose rhetoric reflects conservative values.”
>
> >
>
> > > https://psmag.com/news/framing-liberal-policies-within-conservative-values-can-be-uniquely-persuasive
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Clearly there are different possible reasons for this result, but the effect is large enough to be interesting.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Tony Blair?
>
> >
>
> > That was my first thought. And he worked it out 25 years ago...
>
>
>
> Thanks for being the only person to reply to that comment about 7 hours after I posted it! I instantly thought of Blair after seeing the article.
>
> You're welcome.
Didn't see original post. Just read it. Interesting, but I would have thought obvious as well. Two areas that immediately spring to mind where the pitch can have make a huge difference is foreign aid and crime and punishment. Isn't the problem then the presentation of your policies by those you have no control over (media, opponents, etc)
> Doesn't even say the name of the team on it.
Cult of personality. But without the personality. The Scottish Conservatives are _really_ strange.
> > @eek said:
> > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > > @Freggles said:
> > >
> > > > If you don't, I would advise against posting about it here.
> > >
> > > I know. And I won't. You can all speculate away as to how I eventually vote and who I am in the real world.
> > >
> > > It is a dilemma though. We lost on the 2nd because of Labour's fence sitting on Brexit. Now they want me to endorse said fence sitting.
> > >
> >
> > Not quite - Labour lost the Tees Valley councils because after 30 odd years people think it may be time to give someone else a go. And the Tees Valley mayor did deliver on the airport...
>
> He *bought* the airport. He hasn't delivered on it because he can't. If there was a commercial case for operating actual flights out of it they would already be happening - plenty of disputes between airlines and airport owners and yet flights still operate.
>
> I expect that DTV will continue to be the base of operation for Easyjet orbits at 500 feet approach training flights and little else
I can tell you with some confidence that the operation of an airport is one long argument between airlines and the airport operator!!
> > @Mysticrose said:
> > But how much influence will people like Michael Heseltine, Matthew Paris and Peter Oborne have in openly stating that for the first time they're voting LibDem?
>
> Somewhere between zero and negligible.
>
>
>
If these guys (Parris & Oborne) have negligible influence, why do papers pay them so much for their columns?
> Off to the polling station shortly. Not interested in the Leave vs Remain quasi referendum aspect of these European elections, the message I want to send with my vote is that I am not prepared to tolerate Boris Johnson as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
>
> Struggled for a while with how best to achieve this but just now I have had a moment of inspiration, hence this post since I am keen to share. How I'll do it is I will spoil my ballot. Instead of putting a cross in any of the boxes, I will take a black marker pen and scrawl across the paper -
>
> "I AM NOT PREPARED TO TOLERATE BORIS JOHNSON AS PRIME MINISTER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM."
>
> In capital letters like that.
>
> Please do join me if you like.
You could also do that whilst voting for a party. I mean, probably best to avoid Conservative or Brexit party given those votes probably increase Johnson's standing, but you can work that bit out for yourself.
> > @TGOHF said:
> > > @Mysticrose said:
> > > But how much influence will people like Michael Heseltine, Matthew Paris and Peter Oborne have in openly stating that for the first time they're voting LibDem?
> >
> > Somewhere between zero and negligible.
> >
> >
> >
>
> If these guys (Parris & Oborne) have negligible influence, why do papers pay them so much for their columns?
An absolute mystery.
> > @TGOHF said:
> > > @Mysticrose said:
> > > But how much influence will people like Michael Heseltine, Matthew Paris and Peter Oborne have in openly stating that for the first time they're voting LibDem?
> >
> > Somewhere between zero and negligible.
> >
> >
> >
>
> If these guys (Parris & Oborne) have negligible influence, why do papers pay them so much for their columns?
You can sell papers and not influence people much (particularly at such a late stage)
> > @kinabalu said:
> > Off to the polling station shortly. Not interested in the Leave vs Remain quasi referendum aspect of these European elections, the message I want to send with my vote is that I am not prepared to tolerate Boris Johnson as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
> >
> > Struggled for a while with how best to achieve this but just now I have had a moment of inspiration, hence this post since I am keen to share. How I'll do it is I will spoil my ballot. Instead of putting a cross in any of the boxes, I will take a black marker pen and scrawl across the paper -
> >
> > "I AM NOT PREPARED TO TOLERATE BORIS JOHNSON AS PRIME MINISTER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM."
> >
> > In capital letters like that.
> >
> > Please do join me if you like.
>
> Well that's him told then.....
Key thing is that many more than me do it.
If we end up with -
BP 15%
CON 5%
LAB 5%
QUISLING ASSORTED REMAIN 15%
OTHER 8%
SPOILED 52%
Therefore spoiled ballots top the poll and all of them say "I am NOT prepared to tolerate Boris Johnson as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom" - those exact words - then the political class will have to listen.
> > @viewcode said:
> > > @viewcode said:
> >
> > > > @Nigelb said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > An interesting piece of political research:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > “New research finds that voters are more likely to support a liberal candidate whose rhetoric reflects conservative values.”
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > https://psmag.com/news/framing-liberal-policies-within-conservative-values-can-be-uniquely-persuasive
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > Clearly there are different possible reasons for this result, but the effect is large enough to be interesting.
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Tony Blair?
> >
> > >
> >
> > > That was my first thought. And he worked it out 25 years ago...
> >
> >
> >
> > Thanks for being the only person to reply to that comment about 7 hours after I posted it! I instantly thought of Blair after seeing the article.
> >
> > You're welcome.
>
> Didn't see original post. Just read it. Interesting, but I would have thought obvious as well. Two areas that immediately spring to mind where the pitch can have make a huge difference is foreign aid and crime and punishment. Isn't the problem then the presentation of your policies by those you have no control over (media, opponents, etc)
Tough on crime tough on the causes of crime. Repeated ad nauseum. Stealing your opponents territory.
Foreign aid....Tough on immigration, tough on the causes...?
> https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1131486899196125184?s=21
But will she still be Con leader?
> Poor little Tinkerbell
>
> https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1131454761516056576
No it couldn't, as the next PM will soon find out.
Just how long can the leadership contest be drawn out ?
> Somewhere between zero and negligible.
I've observed this site for a long time and there has been a noticeable increase in one line put-downs, ranging from pithy to dismissive. I'm not suggesting everyone needs to write an essay but there's a growing intolerance for other perspectives and an incapacity to listen to alternatives and, especially, to frame a measured and well-reasoned response. I'm not singling you out TGOHF. It's becoming endemic.
On the topic of Matthew Parris and Peter Oborne I don't think we can airily dismiss their influence as 'between zero and negligible.' A lot of people do still want to think about their choices and I know many were, and still are, wrestling with how to make them. I have observed a staggering number today on social media saying they have only decided this morning (mainly falling for Lib Dems I have to report).
The influence of some writers remains considerable, both in print and on social media. For example, Owen Jones, Polly Toynbee and Paul Mason to the left, Boris in the Telegraph. Matthew Paris is still one of the finest writers in the Times stable and Peter Oborne, like Peter Hitchens, have a considerable following.
> Anyone think that BXP 5 of 25-29.99% is value @ 9.6 on BF Exchange?
That looks like amazing value to me. Well spotted. One of the latest opinion polls had them on about 28% IIRC. What on earth are punters thinking of to make it so high for that range?
BREX 33 (+33)
LAB 19 (-18)
LD 16 (+8)
CON 15 (-21)
GRN 7 (+2)
CHUK 4 (+4)
SNP 4 (+1)
UKIP 2 (-8)
PC 1 (=)
Fieldwork 18th-21st (mostly at the weekend)
> > @Nigelb said:
> > RIP Judith Kerr.
>
> Bugger.
> You can't say 95 wasn't good innings but she was a great woman.
She was indeed.
There was a brief Guardian interview only a few days ago:
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/may/18/judith-kerr-interview-the-tiger-who-came-to-tea
"...What is your guiltiest pleasure?
Drinking dregs of the whisky from the night before."
Absolutely deserted lol
> > @TGOHF said:
>
> > Somewhere between zero and negligible.
>
> I've observed this site for a long time and there has been a noticeable increase in one line put-downs, ranging from pithy to dismissive. I'm not suggesting everyone needs to write an essay but there's a growing intolerance for other perspectives and an incapacity to listen to alternatives and, especially, to frame a measured and well-reasoned response. I'm not singling you out TGOHF. It's becoming endemic.
>
>
> On the topic of Matthew Parris and Peter Oborne I don't think we can airily dismiss their influence as 'between zero and negligible.' A lot of people do still want to think about their choices and I know many were, and still are, wrestling with how to make them. I have observed a staggering number today on social media saying they have only decided this morning (mainly falling for Lib Dems I have to report).
>
> The influence of some writers remains considerable, both in print and on social media. For example, Owen Jones, Polly Toynbee and Paul Mason to the left, Boris in the Telegraph. Matthew Paris is still one of the finest writers in the Times stable and Peter Oborne, like Peter Hitchens, have a considerable following.
I'd suggest that the % of the population who have heard of Matthew Parris nevermind read his articles would be <5%.
Of those - the % who take note of what he says or even like him would be a further subset.
> Number Cruncher poll -
>
> BREX 33 (+33)
> LAB 19 (-18)
> LD 16 (+8)
> CON 15 (-21)
> GRN 7 (+2)
> CHUK 4 (+4)
> SNP 4 (+1)
> UKIP 2 (-8)
> PC 1 (=)
>
> Fieldwork 18th-21st (mostly at the weekend)
>
The changes aren't right if it's a comparison with the 2014 Euros. Maybe it's with this company's previous poll.
> > @Floater said:
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > Off to the polling station shortly. Not interested in the Leave vs Remain quasi referendum aspect of these European elections, the message I want to send with my vote is that I am not prepared to tolerate Boris Johnson as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
> > >
> > > Struggled for a while with how best to achieve this but just now I have had a moment of inspiration, hence this post since I am keen to share. How I'll do it is I will spoil my ballot. Instead of putting a cross in any of the boxes, I will take a black marker pen and scrawl across the paper -
> > >
> > > "I AM NOT PREPARED TO TOLERATE BORIS JOHNSON AS PRIME MINISTER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM."
> > >
> > > In capital letters like that.
> > >
> > > Please do join me if you like.
> >
> > Well that's him told then.....
>
> Key thing is that many more than me do it.
>
> If we end up with -
>
> BP 15%
> CON 5%
> LAB 5%
> QUISLING ASSORTED REMAIN 15%
> OTHER 8%
> SPOILED 52%
>
> Therefore spoiled ballots top the poll and all of them say "I am NOT prepared to tolerate Boris Johnson as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom" - those exact words - then the political class will have to listen.
i can think of another 52% vote the political class are doing their very best not to listen to......
> > @williamglenn said:
> > https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1131486899196125184?s=21
>
> But will she still be Con leader?
Even if she has announced her departure it seems very unlikely a successor will be elected in a week, so yes, she will still technically be con leader.
"But will she still be Con leader?
................................................................
That is of course if they are able to organize the political equivalent of a piss up in a brewery ....
Hhmmm .... The jury is out !!
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-was-strong-brexiteer-now-we-must-swallow-our-pride-and-think-again/
"I voted Conservative."
.......................................
Sympathy vote ? ..
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1131486899196125184?s=21
> >
> > But will she still be Con leader?
>
> Even if she has announced her departure it seems very unlikely a successor will be elected in a week, so yes, she will still technically be con leader.
When she tenders her resignation as Conservative leader, thus triggering a leadership battle, doesn't she technically cease to be Con leader and the position at the point is kind of vacant?
> BBC News - "Government pulls plans to debate BREXIT agreement for the first week of June."
No surprise there.
> QUISLING ASSORTED REMAIN 15%
christ
> > @justin124 said:
> > Number Cruncher poll -
> >
> > BREX 33 (+33)
> > LAB 19 (-18)
> > LD 16 (+8)
> > CON 15 (-21)
> > GRN 7 (+2)
> > CHUK 4 (+4)
> > SNP 4 (+1)
> > UKIP 2 (-8)
> > PC 1 (=)
> >
> > Fieldwork 18th-21st (mostly at the weekend)
> >
>
> The changes aren't right if it's a comparison with the 2014 Euros. Maybe it's with this company's previous poll.
Last General Election?
EDIT: No that can't be right either!
but you can work that bit out for yourself.
I retract
> > @kinabalu said:
> > QUISLING ASSORTED REMAIN 15%
>
> christ
I think (?) that was tongue in cheek - but it's a mark of current political discourse that it might easily be serious...
> > @justin124 said:
> > Number Cruncher poll -
> >
> > BREX 33 (+33)
> > LAB 19 (-18)
> > LD 16 (+8)
> > CON 15 (-21)
> > GRN 7 (+2)
> > CHUK 4 (+4)
> > SNP 4 (+1)
> > UKIP 2 (-8)
> > PC 1 (=)
> >
> > Fieldwork 18th-21st (mostly at the weekend)
> >
>
> The changes aren't right if it's a comparison with the 2014 Euros. Maybe it's with this company's previous poll.
I believe they had a poll earlier in the year.
> I'd suggest that the % of the population who have heard of Matthew Parris nevermind read his articles would be <5%.
>
> Of those - the % who take note of what he says or even like him would be a further subset.
>
Sunday Times print circulation is c 750,000 and the Times c. 450,000. Online global reach remains considerable. In the UK alone it exceeds 1 million. Parris may not be a prolific tweeter and only has 21,000 followers but he wasn't described by Ian Dale as 'the pre-eminent columnist of his generation' for nothing. I know I often look at his pieces, even when I frequently disagree with him.
Peter Oborne has 50,000 followers on twitter and has been influential both in the Telegraph and now with Open Democracy.
The others I mentioned have huge reach.
I do think people take note when someone of a previously diehard persuasion reveals a new perspective. Heseltine comes to mind, so does Peter Hitchens. As @Stark_Dawning states below, Peter Oborne's piece on the benefits of remaining in the EU is impressive. https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-was-strong-brexiteer-now-we-must-swallow-our-pride-and-think-again/
Given they're not running in Northern Ireland and won't do much in London or Scotland that would require an extraordinary performance in provincial England and Wales.
> > @argyllrs said:
> > Anyone think that BXP 5 of 25-29.99% is value @ 9.6 on BF Exchange?
>
> That looks like amazing value to me. Well spotted. One of the latest opinion polls had them on about 28% IIRC. What on earth are punters thinking of to make it so high for that range?
I got it at 9.6 yesterday. Perfectly plausible as the bottom end of their range is 27%.
> Do we have a leader of the house ?
No!
> > @JackW said:
> > BBC News - "Government pulls plans to debate BREXIT agreement for the first week of June."
>
> No surprise there.
.........................................................
Indeed. As much as the little surprise to see you nip back for your occasional PB highlights flit ....
Are clan Tabman in fine fettle ?
A good value loser I think.
> Do we have a leader of the house ?
Until 1942 that task was usually assigned to the PM.
> Anyone think that BXP 5 of 25-29.99% is value @ 9.6 on BF Exchange?
>
> I took 20-30 with Ladbrokes @ 9 yesterday.
>
> A good value loser I think.
Same principle for laying 40% + - if they get that I'll clean up on Sporting Index at £15 a seat
> > @TGOHF said:
> > Do we have a leader of the house ?
>
> No!
And May did away with the post of Deputy LoH!
> > @Tabman said:
> > > @JackW said:
> > > BBC News - "Government pulls plans to debate BREXIT agreement for the first week of June."
> >
> > No surprise there.
>
> .........................................................
>
> Indeed. As much as the little surprise to see you nip back for your occasional PB highlights flit ....
>
> Are clan Tabman in fine fettle ?
It's good to be back. Can it be a mere fifteen years since we first exchanged quips on Rik, Kinkell and the Order of the Cracked Champerpot?
The Clan are all well thanks, though eating me out of house and home. Perhaps they need more filling sustenance, such as Auchtenach's finest pies.
I trust all is good at Castle W, and the cellar is well stocked for what could be an interesting few days ...
> I voted Conservative.
>
> Minor parties deserve a boost.
.......................................................
Ouch !! ....
> Anyone think that BXP 5 of 25-29.99% is value @ 9.6 on BF Exchange?
>
> I took 20-30 with Ladbrokes @ 9 yesterday.
>
> A good value loser I think.
Their average in the polls is about 32%.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > Number Cruncher poll -
> > >
> > > BREX 33 (+33)
> > > LAB 19 (-18)
> > > LD 16 (+8)
> > > CON 15 (-21)
> > > GRN 7 (+2)
> > > CHUK 4 (+4)
> > > SNP 4 (+1)
> > > UKIP 2 (-8)
> > > PC 1 (=)
> > >
> > > Fieldwork 18th-21st (mostly at the weekend)
> > >
> >
> > The changes aren't right if it's a comparison with the 2014 Euros. Maybe it's with this company's previous poll.
>
> I believe they had a poll earlier in the year.
Before the Brexit Party was launched evidently.
"Theresa May will be prime minister to welcome [Trump] and rightly so."
Maybe nobody wants to be left looking after the baby. Perhaps Leadsom should do it?
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131506007526576129
> > @Alistair said:
> > Anyone think that BXP 5 of 25-29.99% is value @ 9.6 on BF Exchange?
> >
> > I took 20-30 with Ladbrokes @ 9 yesterday.
> >
> > A good value loser I think.
>
> Their average in the polls is about 32%.
Their implied vote % on Betfair is ~ 38% given the various odds.
> I drew a giant penis on my ballot paper. Hopefully it doesn't count as a vote for Nige.
In which box
> I drew a giant penis on my ballot paper. Hopefully it doesn't count as a vote for Nige.
It might do if it's next to the Brexit Party box.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @Alistair said:
> > > Anyone think that BXP 5 of 25-29.99% is value @ 9.6 on BF Exchange?
> > >
> > > I took 20-30 with Ladbrokes @ 9 yesterday.
> > >
> > > A good value loser I think.
> >
> > Their average in the polls is about 32%.
>
> Their implied vote % on Betfair is ~ 38% given the various odds.
Only one poll has had them that high.
> > @JackW said:
> > > @Tabman said:
> > > > @JackW said:
> > > > BBC News - "Government pulls plans to debate BREXIT agreement for the first week of June."
> > >
> > > No surprise there.
> >
> > .........................................................
> >
> > Indeed. As much as the little surprise to see you nip back for your occasional PB highlights flit ....
> >
> > Are clan Tabman in fine fettle ?
>
> It's good to be back. Can it be a mere fifteen years since we first exchanged quips on Rik, Kinkell and the Order of the Cracked Champerpot?
>
> The Clan are all well thanks, though eating me out of house and home. Perhaps they need more filling sustenance, such as Auchtenach's finest pies.
>
> I trust all is good at Castle W, and the cellar is well stocked for what could be an interesting few days ...
................................................................................
Happy days ....
We at Auchentennach Fine Pies are thrilled that the resurgence of the yellow peril will lead to a surge in production. Our new company slogan and advertising seems to fit the mood of the nation with added historical twist :
Liberal Democrat Bollocks Add Something to Auchentennach Fine Pies.
"Fine Pies For The Many Not The Few"
> > @kjh said:
> > > @viewcode said:
> > > > @viewcode said:
> > >
> > > > > @Nigelb said:
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > > An interesting piece of political research:
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > > “New research finds that voters are more likely to support a liberal candidate whose rhetoric reflects conservative values.”
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > > https://psmag.com/news/framing-liberal-policies-within-conservative-values-can-be-uniquely-persuasive
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > > Clearly there are different possible reasons for this result, but the effect is large enough to be interesting.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Tony Blair?
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > That was my first thought. And he worked it out 25 years ago...
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Thanks for being the only person to reply to that comment about 7 hours after I posted it! I instantly thought of Blair after seeing the article.
> > >
> > > You're welcome.
> >
> > Didn't see original post. Just read it. Interesting, but I would have thought obvious as well. Two areas that immediately spring to mind where the pitch can have make a huge difference is foreign aid and crime and punishment. Isn't the problem then the presentation of your policies by those you have no control over (media, opponents, etc)
>
> Tough on crime tough on the causes of crime. Repeated ad nauseum. Stealing your opponents territory.
> Foreign aid....Tough on immigration, tough on the causes...?
Always ask who did the research and where it was done. There are two issues IMHO; with the increase in the number of universities there is an increase in the numbers of students casting around for 'something' to research and professors (etc) trying to get their names on published papers.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > @Alistair said:
> > > > Anyone think that BXP 5 of 25-29.99% is value @ 9.6 on BF Exchange?
> > > >
> > > > I took 20-30 with Ladbrokes @ 9 yesterday.
> > > >
> > > > A good value loser I think.
> > >
> > > Their average in the polls is about 32%.
> >
> > Their implied vote % on Betfair is ~ 38% given the various odds.
>
> Only one poll has had them that high.
GIven that poll won't include Northern Ireland and Betfair's market does even the 38% poll is undershooting their implied % on the exchange.
> Jeremy unt:
> "Theresa May will be prime minister to welcome [Trump] and rightly so."
>
> Maybe nobody wants to be left looking after the baby. Perhaps Leadsom should do it?
After all, she is a mother!