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  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    IanB2 said:

    > @TheJezziah said:

    > If we are going to do a little push for our own parties, vote Labour the only party that can realistically beat the Brexit party (on some polls they can, on others nobody can)



    Nationally nobody can. So the better bet is to give them a run for their money in each region, to reduce their advantage under D’Hondt. In relatively few regions is Labour the sensible choice.

    Unless you consider the polls which show only a few percentage points difference an impossible gap to realistically bridge then you might just be talking your own party up rather than looking objectively.

    If we take the YouGov polls for example then certainly it isn't realistically possible but others are much in a close enough gap for Labour to win.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    May has talked tough, but then folded like a cheap suit at every opportunity. I was going to vote Tory but not now.
    I'll be voting for some Lincolnshire independents instead
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Incidentally, if anyone wants to try persuading me, I still don't know what I'll be scrawling on my ballot paper.

    To keep the people at the count on their toes, next to the Liberal Democrat name, write
    BRE [ x ] IT
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    > @TheJezziah said:
    > > @Mauve said:
    >
    > > Weather looks good today here, sunny and warm, perhaps suggesting turnout might be at the higher end of some predictions.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > I'd been planning to give ChUK a sympathy vote, but now the day is here I'm just not sure I can go through with it. I'll be voting Lib Dem today for the third time today to try and reduce the size of Farage's grin on Sunday night
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > Yep. It’s already the case that a Tory vote or a Labour vote is a Wasted Vote. Now it looks like a CUK vote would be wasted also. Respect to anyone who votes Green, but for expressing a clear Remain position today it has to be the LibDems.
    >
    >
    >
    > Their payoff for being so steadfast and clear has been a long time coming.
    >
    > Anything but a Lib Dem vote is a wasted vote?


    No. If you really want a hard Brexit then clearly voting BXP isn’t wasted. In Scotland voting SNP makes the most sense. The extent to which Green votes are underrepresented will depend on their performance - in the larger London and SE regions it’s a vote very likely to count, but in the smaller regions it would be better for remainers to coalesce behind the LibDems.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > > > @JosiasJessop said:
    > > > That assumes the Brexiteers did not actually want to leave the EU, merely to rail against it. Not all Leavers can be Russian trolls.
    > > >
    > > > The problem is one of definition: what does 'leave' mean? For many, May's deal equates to leave. For the Faragists, it means only a 'pure' fuck-the-country no-deal.
    > >
    > > Exactly. That is why we needed -- and still do need, and will need even with a new prime minister in February 2022 when Theresa May finally retires -- a commission to establish what precisely is our Brexit goal. Then we can try to achieve it.
    >
    > The original mistake is of course Cameron’s, for never considering that he might lose and hence not giving a moment’s thought as to how best to go about it. Had he told the leavers to go away and come up with an agreed proposition for the referendum, they’d probably still be arguing about it. Or, more likely, they would themselves have tacked to centre in order to better their chances in the vote, and we wouldn’t be having these arguments now.

    Yes. For all her faults, Theresa May did inherit this mess from David Cameron, who therefore probably retains his title of the worst prime minister since Lord North. And god knows there's been some competition!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    There will be one more poll before the results.

    https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1131378331935563776?s=21
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,812
    Mr. Tokyo, ha. That's mischievous, but I do think those working on the counting have enough to do without me adding a little to their workload.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    > @williamglenn said:
    > There will be one more poll before the results.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1131378331935563776?s=21

    How can phone polls be made representative nowadays?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited May 2019
    TOPPING said:

    If we are going to do a little push for our own parties, vote Labour the only party that can realistically beat the Brexit party (on some polls they can, on others nobody can)

    That is true and it is only the presence of your namesake that prevents me assigning it a 6% favourability rating for that reason.
    I was trying to stick to something objectively true in almost all eyes and even stuck the bit in brackets in to try to make sure it was pretty unarguable...

    Maybe I failed there.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited May 2019
    > @FF43 said:
    > > @DavidL said:
    > > > @StuartDickson said:
    > > > On topic, Mike, I’m not sure that her “only crime” was trying to implement the referendum result. She committed multiple “crimes” (odd word) in *how* she worked. For example, trying to play the referendum result for narrow partisan gain.
    > > >
    > > > Rarely have we witnessed a leader who so obviously lacked any kind of recognised leadership qualities. Simply painful to watch.
    > >
    > > That was exactly my thought Stuart. She has inherited a difficult situation and turned it into a total quagmire. The epitome of this was only yesterday when, to the fury of much of her own party and cabinet, she gave Labour everything that they were asking for with a bow on the top only to be met by derision. To quote herself nothing had changed and her deal is still doomed to failure.
    > >
    > > I find it incredibly frustrating because her deal was in fact a good one and with a different leader it might well have been a compromise to bring this country back together. Instead we are down to 2 completely unsatisfactory choices. We either trash our democracy and revoke alienating a large percentage of our population from the democratic process or we leave in an unnecessarily damaging way hurting relations with our major trading partners for some time to come.
    > >
    > > She is intelligent, hard working, willing to master the detail, conscientious and has a strong sense of duty. But she is totally incapable of building a consensus, leading, inspiring or finding a way to a compromise that a majority can live with. Its sad for her but it has been a disaster for the country.
    > >
    > > Nice to see you posting again by the way.
    >
    > -----------------------------------------------

    "May's Deal" (actually the EU's, and a prerequisite to the deal,not the deal itself) was a reasonable bit of damage limitation. Remainers and Leavers from their different perspectives saw no reason for damage limitation. It had nothing to do with May's admittedly poor salesmanship.

    ____

    Anyway there's plenty of Brexit damage to be limited. We'll see if May's successor is any more successful than she was.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,135
    > @TOPPING said:
    > If you think that May's deal is the least bad way of acting with honour over the vote to leave the EU then vote Conservative.

    My wife and I did just that and for that reason
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. Tokyo, ha. That's mischievous, but I do think those working on the counting have enough to do without me adding a little to their workload.

    Have you narrowed down your choices ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    On topic, Mike, I’m not sure that her “only crime” was trying to implement the referendum result. She committed multiple “crimes” (odd word) in *how* she worked. For example, trying to play the referendum result for narrow partisan gain.



    Rarely have we witnessed a leader who so obviously lacked any kind of recognised leadership qualities. Simply painful to watch.

    Crime doesn’t really come in to it.
    Attlee’s ‘just not up to it’ is a fairer summary.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    > > There will be one more poll before the results.
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1131378331935563776?s=21
    >
    > How can phone polls be made representative nowadays?

    Proper sampling and less reliance on weighting to fix sampling errors. Inclusion of mobile numbers. Abandoning last-digit randomisation whose flaws have been discussed here often.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited May 2019
    Mr Smithson,

    "The Tory obsession with Europe is devouring another leader."


    The obsession is not restricted to the Tories, nor to the leavers. After forty years of politicians obsessing with it, using it for an excuse for their own failures at times, and trying to keep its problems from the 'children', Cameron decided to bring it into the open - much to the LDs displeasure. He may have had his own reasons, but it's too late now.


    The elephant has stampeded around the room. The furniture will never be rearranged as it was before.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Roger said:

    > @CarlottaVance said:

    > More like "Shoots fish in barrel":

    >

    >





    CHUK have helped the Lib Dems more than people seem to realise. They opened the door to the idea that some serious people were prepared to move away from the turgid choice of Tory and Labour. Their time will come. Indeed in time they could be the chief benefactors of a victory for the centre ground.
    I suspect this is the first, and last, election they will contest. Their current MPS will all lose their seats at the next general election (unless they shift to the LibDems) and they won't have any MEPs or Councillors. Its been an amateurish shambles from the start and is no more than they deserve, however worthy their cause. A party in favour of the status quo called 'Change' ffs!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. Tokyo, ha. That's mischievous, but I do think those working on the counting have enough to do without me adding a little to their workload.

    Fair enough, just write in LIZARD PEOPLE?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    If we are going to do a little push for our own parties, vote Labour the only party that can realistically beat the Brexit party (on some polls they can, on others nobody can)

    That is true and it is only the presence of your namesake that prevents me assigning it a 6% favourability rating for that reason.
    I was trying to stick to something objectively true in almost all eyes and even stuck the bit in brackets in to try to make sure it was pretty unarguable...

    Maybe I failed there.
    I mean I know it would be betraying the dream but imagine what a sensible centre left party without Seamus and his gang would poll given that I, a hated Tory, am even now nearly on 6%.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    > @Roger said:
    > > @CarlottaVance said:
    > > More like "Shoots fish in barrel":
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1131446238707109888
    >
    > CHUK have helped the Lib Dems more than people seem to realise. They opened the door to the idea that some serious people were prepared to move away from the turgid choice of Tory and Labour. Their time will come. Indeed in time they could be the chief benefactors of a victory for the centre ground.

    ______________

    I think this is right. The Independent Group was originally just a grouping. If we are seeing a realignment of politics in the UK, these MPs have a potentially more interesting future than hanging on in their respective parties
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,812
    Mr. Pulpstar, I've ruled out pretty much everyone :p

    The parties I've got to choose from are:
    Green - far left
    Labour - no EU position and far left nutcases
    Lib Dems - want a second referendum [to be honest, more honest and less rubbish than some positions]
    Conservative - May's deal is rubbish (maybe least bad option?) but supporting them might prolong her political tenure, and she's a very poor PM
    English Democrats - whilst I like the English Parliament policy I had heard here they were infiltrated by the remnants of the BNP, so no
    UKIP - I think not
    Yorkshire Party - carving England into shitty regional assemblies is not something I will support
    Brexit Party - I'm sympathetic to a kick up the arse to those trying to frustrate the referendum result, but the rallies and 'lock her up' nonsense are unsettling and unwelcome (not to mention infantile and having all the nuance of Procopius' Secret History)
    Oh, Change UK (forgot until just now) - like the Lib Dems, with less competence (and straight revocation would be... courageous)

    I think that's everyone.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,812
    Mr. Tokyo, hmm. I quite like that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,736

    > @IanB2 said:

    > > @williamglenn said:

    > > There will be one more poll before the results.

    > >

    > >



    >

    > How can phone polls be made representative nowadays?



    Proper sampling and less reliance on weighting to fix sampling errors. Inclusion of mobile numbers. Abandoning last-digit randomisation whose flaws have been discussed here often.
    It is pretty rare to get a phone poll nowadays. They last seemed to be widely used before the referendum.

    It will be interesting to see if it differs hugely from the actual result. Online polls seem all over the place at the moment.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628

    Mr. Topping, whilst todger graffiti is an ancient art form, it is not one of which I partake.

    I could draw an elf, though. I also drew a reasonable dragon a while ago but I think it'd take too long in the polling booth.

    ttps://twitter.com/MorrisF1/status/1007918228918751232

    Draw a sketch of Niki Lauda, with a caption that this is what honesty and integrity look like.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @TOPPING said:
    > > If you think that May's deal is the least bad way of acting with honour over the vote to leave the EU then vote Conservative.
    >
    > My wife and I did just that and for that reason

    Loyal to the very end.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    > @eek said:
    > > @thecommissioner said:
    > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > > > @thecommissioner said:
    > > > > A substantial proportion of the 48% were never amenable to May or anyone else reaching out and formulating a leave that would be acceptable to them, because no kind of leave is.
    > > >
    > > > Leave only needed a third of Remainers to hop on board the Brexit bus to get a solid two thirds of the population backing a consensus. They haven’t persuaded any Remainers and indeed seem to be losing ground.
    > > >
    > > > Leavers need to take a long hard look at themselves and ask why they were unable to build even a grudging consensus as to the way forward. I can supply answers (and have), but I fear they will continue to meet the consumer resistance they always have.
    > >
    > > The process has been in the hands of a remainer parliament with 400-500 pre-declared Remainers. That's why things haven't progressed as they should.
    > >
    > > Parliament has not been representative of the people.
    > >
    > > May has made the mistake of believing people might compromise, but they haven't and they won't.
    > >
    > > As soon as one demand is met, another is presented.
    > >
    > >
    >
    > All May needed to do was to get her deal through by every Tory voting for it.
    >
    > The fact the more fanatical wing of the Party decided it wasn't good enough isn't the fault of any MP in Parliament except the ERG...

    Every Tory voting for it STILL had it failing. It's a minority Govt. propped up by ornery Ulstermen who could not be bought off.

    That she lost her majority is May's greatest crime. One for which she should have been sacked the next day.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,812
    Mr. Sandpit, probably have a new PM by the time I finished it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Morris, toss a coin between Brexit and the Tories.

    In the 2015 election I couldn't decide so tossed up between the Tories and the Greens. Voted Green in that one.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628
    edited May 2019
    isam said:

    May perhaps didn’t feel the need to overreach to Remainers because she was a Remainer herself who had allowed the highest net migration in history as Home Sec. She probably thought that was enough evidence she was one of them, and she’d better try to get leavers onside before offering a deal none of their big players would accept.

    Words speak louder than actions apparently.

    Still, despite the obituaries, she is still a decent price to step down before July


    Surely the value there is the Q3 bet, as she’s likely to remain in place until the contest has concluded? Maybe even with a few pence covering October.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Voted for change* and against Farage’s proto-fascists.

    *capitalisation significant.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    Just voted Lib Dem 🔶 in Newcastle. :)
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    edited May 2019
    *gets YouGov survey link*
    *clicks more enthusiastically than usual because polling day*
    *spends ten minutes answering questions about make-up and health food*
    #standard
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    A substantial proportion of the 48% were never amenable to May or anyone else reaching out and formulating a leave that would be acceptable to them, because no kind of leave is.

    Perhaps - but how substantial ?

    A leave deal with the backing of even a minority of those who voted Remain could have been put through Parliament by a more adroit PM.
    Trying to gain the acquiescence of the opposition to a fair accompli after shunning them utterly during the two years of negotiation is what killed her deal. That and failing to face down the hardliners at the very outset.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. Pulpstar, I've ruled out pretty much everyone :p
    >
    > The parties I've got to choose from are:
    > Green - far left
    > Labour - no EU position and far left nutcases
    > Lib Dems - want a second referendum [to be honest, more honest and less rubbish than some positions]
    > Conservative - May's deal is rubbish (maybe least bad option?) but supporting them might prolong her political tenure, and she's a very poor PM
    > English Democrats - whilst I like the English Parliament policy I had heard here they were infiltrated by the remnants of the BNP, so no
    > UKIP - I think not
    > Yorkshire Party - carving England into shitty regional assemblies is not something I will support
    > Brexit Party - I'm sympathetic to a kick up the arse to those trying to frustrate the referendum result, but the rallies and 'lock her up' nonsense are unsettling and unwelcome (not to mention infantile and having all the nuance of Procopius' Secret History)
    > Oh, Change UK (forgot until just now) - like the Lib Dems, with less competence (and straight revocation would be... courageous)
    >
    > I think that's everyone.

    I wouldn't worry too much about prolonging TM's political tenure.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,812
    Mr. Pulpstar, I can see that working as a tie-breaker for some, but it's not for me. I do appreciate the suggestion, though.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    *gets YouGov survey link*
    *clicks more enthusiastically than usual because polling day*
    *spends ten minutes answering questions about make-up and health food*
    #standard
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    IanB2 said:

    > @TheJezziah said:

    > > @Mauve said:

    >

    > > Weather looks good today here, sunny and warm, perhaps suggesting turnout might be at the higher end of some predictions.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > I'd been planning to give ChUK a sympathy vote, but now the day is here I'm just not sure I can go through with it. I'll be voting Lib Dem today for the third time today to try and reduce the size of Farage's grin on Sunday night

    >

    >

    >

    >

    >

    > Yep. It’s already the case that a Tory vote or a Labour vote is a Wasted Vote. Now it looks like a CUK vote would be wasted also. Respect to anyone who votes Green, but for expressing a clear Remain position today it has to be the LibDems.

    >

    >

    >

    > Their payoff for being so steadfast and clear has been a long time coming.

    >

    > Anything but a Lib Dem vote is a wasted vote?





    No. If you really want a hard Brexit then clearly voting BXP isn’t wasted. In Scotland voting SNP makes the most sense. The extent to which Green votes are underrepresented will depend on their performance - in the larger London and SE regions it’s a vote very likely to count, but in the smaller regions it would be better for remainers to coalesce behind the LibDems.

    Point of order. BXP is campaigning for a no deal Brexit, which is far more extreme than ‘hard Brexit’. Or at least what the term meant when it was first coined.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    > @AlastairMeeks said:

    > I really don’t think that the absence of a consensus is down to saboteurs (the MPs,incidentally, were elected after the referendum result). It’s down to a vile referendum campaign, followed by Leavers competing to set purity tests and whip up paranoia about traitors and quislings. But most of all it is down to Leavers being utterly clueless about what they do want as opposed to what they don’t want.

    ___________________

    Slightly unfair to Leavers, I think. They want the UK to be masters of its own ship and the EU, which they never much liked, to go away out of their lives.

    Problem is, Brexit gives the exact opposite. We will never be more beholden to the EU, which will dominate our lives much more comprehensively than ever before.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @Morris_Dancer said:

    > The BBC weather forecast, which seems less useful than it did a few years ago, has it 90% or so dry on Saturday.

    The national broadcaster no longer uses forecasts from the national weather service, but from a private outfit that uses the freely available forecasts produced by the US weather service. Meanwhile the USN and USAF do use forecasts from our weather service.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    The biggesst 'crime' Mrs May has committed is leaving us with a choice of Johnson Gove and Leadsom as her successor.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > > @Morris_Dancer said:
    >
    > > The BBC weather forecast, which seems less useful than it did a few years ago, has it 90% or so dry on Saturday.
    >
    > The national broadcaster no longer uses forecasts from the national weather service, but from a private outfit that uses the freely available forecasts produced by the US weather service. Meanwhile the USN and USAF do use forecasts from our weather service.

    If you cut funding, this sort of thing happens. Met office 2X cost.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @IanB2 said:
    >
    > > > @williamglenn said:
    >
    > > > There will be one more poll before the results.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1131378331935563776
    >
    >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > How can phone polls be made representative nowadays?
    >
    >
    >
    > Proper sampling and less reliance on weighting to fix sampling errors. Inclusion of mobile numbers. Abandoning last-digit randomisation whose flaws have been discussed here often.
    >
    > It is pretty rare to get a phone poll nowadays. They last seemed to be widely used before the referendum.
    >
    > It will be interesting to see if it differs hugely from the actual result. Online polls seem all over the place at the moment.

    Online polls can have two main problems: first, not everyone and not all groups are online, and this is probably a larger problem here than for phone polls; second, panels can be stuffed by the politically active, and not always for the purest of motives.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    > @Roger said:
    > The biggesst 'crime' Mrs May has committed is leaving us with a choice of Johnson Gove and Leadsom as her successor.

    May has achieved the impossible, leaving the country in a worse state than she inherited from Cameron. What’s scary is the next PM will probably do the same.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    FF43 said:

    > @AlastairMeeks said:



    > I really don’t think that the absence of a consensus is down to saboteurs (the MPs,incidentally, were elected after the referendum result). It’s down to a vile referendum campaign, followed by Leavers competing to set purity tests and whip up paranoia about traitors and quislings. But most of all it is down to Leavers being utterly clueless about what they do want as opposed to what they don’t want.



    ___________________



    Slightly unfair to Leavers, I think. They want the UK to be masters of its own ship and the EU, which they never much liked, to go away out of their lives.



    Problem is, Brexit gives the exact opposite. We will never be more beholden to the EU, which will dominate our lives much more comprehensively than ever before.

    The EU is not going away out of their lives whatever happens. It's the supranational body equivalent of Piers Morgan.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,712
    edited May 2019

    > @JosiasJessop said:

    > That assumes the Brexiteers did not actually want to leave the EU, merely to rail against it. Not all Leavers can be Russian trolls.

    >

    > The problem is one of definition: what does 'leave' mean? For many, May's deal equates to leave. For the Faragists, it means only a 'pure' fuck-the-country no-deal.



    Exactly. That is why we needed -- and still do need, and will need even with a new prime minister in February 2022 when Theresa May finally retires -- a commission to establish what precisely is our Brexit goal. Then we can try to achieve it.

    We're going around in circles: there is no way a Commission would have endorsed a no-deal Brexit, which means that Farage would be able to argue against its findings as being an establishment stitch-up, and still giver political power to himself and whichever party he's running that particular day.

    You need to wargame your position: the Brexiteers wanted to win, and you need to consider how they would have reacted in order to win.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    >
    >
    >
    > > I really don’t think that the absence of a consensus is down to saboteurs (the MPs,incidentally, were elected after the referendum result). It’s down to a vile referendum campaign, followed by Leavers competing to set purity tests and whip up paranoia about traitors and quislings. But most of all it is down to Leavers being utterly clueless about what they do want as opposed to what they don’t want.
    >
    >
    >
    > ___________________
    >
    >
    >
    > Slightly unfair to Leavers, I think. They want the UK to be masters of its own ship and the EU, which they never much liked, to go away out of their lives.
    >
    >
    >
    > Problem is, Brexit gives the exact opposite. We will never be more beholden to the EU, which will dominate our lives much more comprehensively than ever before.
    >
    > The EU is not going away out of their lives whatever happens. It's the supranational body equivalent of Piers Morgan.

    You voted to remain in the supranational body equivalent of Piers Morgan? For heaven's sake, why?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628
    That’s awfully ambiguous.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,712
    IanB2 said:

    > @DecrepitJohnL said:

    > > @JosiasJessop said:

    > > That assumes the Brexiteers did not actually want to leave the EU, merely to rail against it. Not all Leavers can be Russian trolls.

    > >

    > > The problem is one of definition: what does 'leave' mean? For many, May's deal equates to leave. For the Faragists, it means only a 'pure' fuck-the-country no-deal.

    >

    > Exactly. That is why we needed -- and still do need, and will need even with a new prime minister in February 2022 when Theresa May finally retires -- a commission to establish what precisely is our Brexit goal. Then we can try to achieve it.



    The original mistake is of course Cameron’s, for never considering that he might lose and hence not giving a moment’s thought as to how best to go about it. Had he told the leavers to go away and come up with an agreed proposition for the referendum, they’d probably still be arguing about it. Or, more likely, they would themselves have tacked to centre in order to better their chances in the vote, and we wouldn’t be having these arguments now.

    That seems like a wizard wheeze, and one that would have prevented a referendum. Except, of course, that the Brexiteers would have reacted to this. Remember, if there's one thing they feed on, it's a sense of betrayal and faux anger.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    >
    > The EU is not going away out of their lives whatever happens. It's the supranational body equivalent of Piers Morgan.
    ———-

    The paradox is that it’s easier to ignore the EU and pretend it isn’t there when you’re part of it. I shan’t try to use Piers Morgan as a metaphor.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > > @edmundintokyo said:
    >
    > > > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    >
    > > > The problem is that first Cameron and then May proceeded without a Leaver-stuffed Royal Commission establishing what Brexit meant and how to get there, and as a side-effect tying the Brexiteers to a single vision of Brexit and path to it. In other words, without slaying the Brexit unicorns.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > That sounds nice in theory but the said Royal Commission would simply have written a nicely bound report recommending unicorns.
    >
    >
    >
    > No. The "said Royal Comission" would have recommended exactly one horse. As we have seen, leavers prefer different horses, so the referendum would probably not have voted for this horse (like the republican/monarchy referendum in Australia 1999). If this horse did win the referendum, then it would have to be this horse presented to the EU, minimising the post referendum squabbles that we have had over the last three years.
    >
    > There is no way Farage and UKIP would have accepted the horse. In fact, they'd have said the nag was really a French Ardennais, not a good old British Shire. And many Conservatives would have agreed with him. And Farage and UKIP were the real malignant forces behind Brexit.

    I agree Farage has always ensured that he never puts himself anywhere near a position where he might have to deliver something.

    Having never missed a vote in 50 years I have not voted at any level since the referendum and that goes for today as well. I accept that Brexity, Faragey Britain is what my fellow citizens want but as I don't see any good outcome from here I am indifferent to who runs Brexit Britain. I have given up on the country as the decision taken in 2016 is very unlikely to change during my lifetime.

    The only thing that interests me now is seeing how the new hardline Brexit leader gets on when they actually have to do something.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    > @williamglenn said:
    > Which party is Henry voting for?
    >
    > https://twitter.com/henrysmithuk/status/1131451758113370112?s=21

    Assuming the party is still in operation by then, Henry’s seat of Crawley could well be a Brexit Party gain at the general election.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    > @williamglenn said:
    > Which party is Henry voting for?
    >
    > https://twitter.com/henrysmithuk/status/1131451758113370112?s=21

    Tory MP voting against establishment. Self loathing?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > > @JosiasJessop said:
    >
    > > That assumes the Brexiteers did not actually want to leave the EU, merely to rail against it. Not all Leavers can be Russian trolls.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > The problem is one of definition: what does 'leave' mean? For many, May's deal equates to leave. For the Faragists, it means only a 'pure' fuck-the-country no-deal.
    >
    >
    >
    > Exactly. That is why we needed -- and still do need, and will need even with a new prime minister in February 2022 when Theresa May finally retires -- a commission to establish what precisely is our Brexit goal. Then we can try to achieve it.
    >
    > We're going around in circles: there is no way a Commission would have endorsed a no-deal Brexit, which means that Farage would be able to argue against its findings as being an establishment stitch-up, and still giver political power to himself and whichever party he's running that particular day.
    >
    > You need to wargame your position: the Brexiteers wanted to win, and you need to consider how they would have reacted in order to win.

    If we assume Farage does actually want to leave the EU, then it does not follow that he would refuse to serve and then actively undermine such a commission. Even if he did, the weight of other Leavers would be against him.

    You are right but misleading when you say the Brexiteers wanted to win. More important is they do actually want Brexit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    >
    > > > @JosiasJessop said:
    >
    > > > That assumes the Brexiteers did not actually want to leave the EU, merely to rail against it. Not all Leavers can be Russian trolls.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > The problem is one of definition: what does 'leave' mean? For many, May's deal equates to leave. For the Faragists, it means only a 'pure' fuck-the-country no-deal.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Exactly. That is why we needed -- and still do need, and will need even with a new prime minister in February 2022 when Theresa May finally retires -- a commission to establish what precisely is our Brexit goal. Then we can try to achieve it.
    >
    >
    >
    > The original mistake is of course Cameron’s, for never considering that he might lose and hence not giving a moment’s thought as to how best to go about it. Had he told the leavers to go away and come up with an agreed proposition for the referendum, they’d probably still be arguing about it. Or, more likely, they would themselves have tacked to centre in order to better their chances in the vote, and we wouldn’t be having these arguments now.
    >
    > That seems like a wizard wheeze, and one that would have prevented a referendum. Except, of course, that the Brexiteers would have reacted to this. Remember, if there's one thing they feed on, it's a sense of betrayal and faux anger.

    Then they wouldn't have won.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    > @Jonathan said:
    > > @Roger said:
    > > The biggesst 'crime' Mrs May has committed is leaving us with a choice of Johnson Gove and Leadsom as her successor.
    >
    > May has achieved the impossible, leaving the country in a worse state than she inherited from Cameron. What’s scary is the next PM will probably do the same.

    Every PM since Major has been worse than their predecessor. On that basis we are heading for Boris, then Corbyn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited May 2019
    The UN General Assembly votes by 116 votes to 6 that the UK should hand back the Chagoa Islands to Mauritius despite the UK's insistence they will only be handed back once they have ceased use as a defence base.

    Only the USA, Israel, Australia, the Maldives and Hungary voted with the UK with France and Germany abstaining

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48371388
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    > @eristdoof said:
    >
    > > Leavers would have served because they wanted to leave. They believed and still do believe in Brexit. They are not, with one or two exceptions, writing two articles and then choosing Brexit cynically as the best path to power. They really do believe that this is the route to the sunlit uplands. Oh and throwing some ermine around might have helped too.
    > >
    >
    > As the leavers approach their sunlit uplands they have seen that the other side, instead of having green rolling fields, consists of a slag heap, closed down industrial works and land fill sites. "But they are british slag heaps not EU Slägheaps" they cry optimistically. Oh, and it's not sunny, it's raining.


    The only thing to look forward to is that once a hardliner wins the Tory leadership he or she will actually have to do something instead of whinge on the sidelines.That bit will be fascinating but other than that I have pretty much given up on the country
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,712
    IanB2 said:

    > @JosiasJessop said:

    > > @DecrepitJohnL said:

    >

    > > > @JosiasJessop said:

    >

    > > > That assumes the Brexiteers did not actually want to leave the EU, merely to rail against it. Not all Leavers can be Russian trolls.

    >

    > > >

    >

    > > > The problem is one of definition: what does 'leave' mean? For many, May's deal equates to leave. For the Faragists, it means only a 'pure' fuck-the-country no-deal.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Exactly. That is why we needed -- and still do need, and will need even with a new prime minister in February 2022 when Theresa May finally retires -- a commission to establish what precisely is our Brexit goal. Then we can try to achieve it.

    >

    >

    >

    > The original mistake is of course Cameron’s, for never considering that he might lose and hence not giving a moment’s thought as to how best to go about it. Had he told the leavers to go away and come up with an agreed proposition for the referendum, they’d probably still be arguing about it. Or, more likely, they would themselves have tacked to centre in order to better their chances in the vote, and we wouldn’t be having these arguments now.

    >

    > That seems like a wizard wheeze, and one that would have prevented a referendum. Except, of course, that the Brexiteers would have reacted to this. Remember, if there's one thing they feed on, it's a sense of betrayal and faux anger.



    Then they wouldn't have won.

    Why not?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,712

    > @JosiasJessop said:

    > > @JosiasJessop said:

    >

    > > That assumes the Brexiteers did not actually want to leave the EU, merely to rail against it. Not all Leavers can be Russian trolls.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > The problem is one of definition: what does 'leave' mean? For many, May's deal equates to leave. For the Faragists, it means only a 'pure' fuck-the-country no-deal.

    >

    >

    >

    > Exactly. That is why we needed -- and still do need, and will need even with a new prime minister in February 2022 when Theresa May finally retires -- a commission to establish what precisely is our Brexit goal. Then we can try to achieve it.

    >

    > We're going around in circles: there is no way a Commission would have endorsed a no-deal Brexit, which means that Farage would be able to argue against its findings as being an establishment stitch-up, and still giver political power to himself and whichever party he's running that particular day.

    >

    > You need to wargame your position: the Brexiteers wanted to win, and you need to consider how they would have reacted in order to win.



    If we assume Farage does actually want to leave the EU, then it does not follow that he would refuse to serve and then actively undermine such a commission. Even if he did, the weight of other Leavers would be against him.



    You are right but misleading when you say the Brexiteers wanted to win. More important is they do actually want Brexit.

    But again: what is Brexit - and that's the question that's got us into this mess.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    > @FF43 said:
    > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    >
    > > I really don’t think that the absence of a consensus is down to saboteurs (the MPs,incidentally, were elected after the referendum result). It’s down to a vile referendum campaign, followed by Leavers competing to set purity tests and whip up paranoia about traitors and quislings. But most of all it is down to Leavers being utterly clueless about what they do want as opposed to what they don’t want.
    >
    > ___________________
    >
    > Slightly unfair to Leavers, I think. They want the UK to be masters of its own ship and the EU, which they never much liked, to go away out of their lives.
    >
    > Problem is, Brexit gives the exact opposite. We will never be more beholden to the EU, which will dominate our lives much more comprehensively than ever before.

    Which was always inevitable, sitting on the edge of one of the world's big political blocs, as Mexico to the US. The Brexiters hoped and even expected that the EU would collapse; their vision is unachievable now this isn't happening any time soon.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. Pulpstar, I've ruled out pretty much everyone :p
    >
    > I think that's everyone.

    You can consider not making your own choice as equivalent to saying something like: "I trust my fellow British subjects to decide this election on my behalf and await the wisdom of their verdict. God save the Queen."

    Alternatively, it does seem that you have a preference for the Tories over the alternatives and I would think that the risk of your vote prolonging May's tenure is slight. The Cabinet don't need your help prolonging her agony.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Results are coming in from India's general election and PM Modi's Congress Party has a clear lead in over 300 seats with the opposition Congress Party ahead in just under 100

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-48347081
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. Pulpstar, I've ruled out pretty much everyone :p
    >
    > The parties I've got to choose from are:
    > Green - far left
    > Labour - no EU position and far left nutcases
    > Lib Dems - want a second referendum [to be honest, more honest and less rubbish than some positions]
    > Conservative - May's deal is rubbish (maybe least bad option?) but supporting them might prolong her political tenure, and she's a very poor PM
    > English Democrats - whilst I like the English Parliament policy I had heard here they were infiltrated by the remnants of the BNP, so no
    > UKIP - I think not
    > Yorkshire Party - carving England into shitty regional assemblies is not something I will support
    > Brexit Party - I'm sympathetic to a kick up the arse to those trying to frustrate the referendum result, but the rallies and 'lock her up' nonsense are unsettling and unwelcome (not to mention infantile and having all the nuance of Procopius' Secret History)
    > Oh, Change UK (forgot until just now) - like the Lib Dems, with less competence (and straight revocation would be... courageous)
    >
    > I think that's everyone.

    Read your own post - clearly it should be LD
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > > @JosiasJessop said:
    >
    > > That assumes the Brexiteers did not actually want to leave the EU, merely to rail against it. Not all Leavers can be Russian trolls.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > The problem is one of definition: what does 'leave' mean? For many, May's deal equates to leave. For the Faragists, it means only a 'pure' fuck-the-country no-deal.
    >
    >
    >
    > Exactly. That is why we needed -- and still do need, and will need even with a new prime minister in February 2022 when Theresa May finally retires -- a commission to establish what precisely is our Brexit goal. Then we can try to achieve it.
    >
    > We're going around in circles: there is no way a Commission would have endorsed a no-deal Brexit, which means that Farage would be able to argue against its findings as being an establishment stitch-up, and still giver political power to himself and whichever party he's running that particular day.
    >
    > You need to wargame your position: the Brexiteers wanted to win, and you need to consider how they would have reacted in order to win.

    Repeating the same argument is not going round in circles.

    Farage might well have claimed that it was an establishment stitch up, but losing a referendum on a Royal Commision would have taken the wind out of his sails.
    The reason: this Brexit Crisis has grown via the Conservative party not UKIP/Farage, and Conservatives can't rail against "The Establishment"
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,812
    edited May 2019
    Mr. Me, cheers for that.

    Edited extra bit: likewise, Mr. B2.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @Jonathan said:
    > > > @Roger said:
    > > > The biggesst 'crime' Mrs May has committed is leaving us with a choice of Johnson Gove and Leadsom as her successor.
    > >
    > > May has achieved the impossible, leaving the country in a worse state than she inherited from Cameron. What’s scary is the next PM will probably do the same.
    >
    > Every PM since Major has been worse than their predecessor. On that basis we are heading for Boris, then Corbyn.

    Then Farage
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    > @Roger said:
    > The biggesst 'crime' Mrs May has committed is leaving us with a choice of Johnson Gove and Leadsom as her successor.

    Plus Raab, outsider Steve Baker
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    > @HYUFD said:
    > The UN General Assembly votes by 116 votes to 6 that the UK should hand back the Chagoa Islands to Mauritius despite the UK's insistence they will only be handed back once they have ceased use as a defence base.
    >
    > Only the USA, Israel, Australia, the Maldives and Hungary voted with the UK with France and Germany abstaining
    >
    > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48371388

    Look a squirrel!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited May 2019
    I suspect this header will be one of the kinder pieces written on May today. Her MPs seem determined that she must go immediately but I'm still none the wiser who fills her shoes while there is a leadership election. But you know they will go flipping mad on Friday if she says she is stepping down as head of the party and will as PM once they are done.

    Anyway, time to head to the polling station, which means it is time to toss a coin to decide.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    > @Endillion said:
    > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > > I really don’t think that the absence of a consensus is down to saboteurs (the MPs,incidentally, were elected after the referendum result). It’s down to a vile referendum campaign, followed by Leavers competing to set purity tests and whip up paranoia about traitors and quislings. But most of all it is down to Leavers being utterly clueless about what they do want as opposed to what they don’t want.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > ___________________
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Slightly unfair to Leavers, I think. They want the UK to be masters of its own ship and the EU, which they never much liked, to go away out of their lives.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Problem is, Brexit gives the exact opposite. We will never be more beholden to the EU, which will dominate our lives much more comprehensively than ever before.
    > >
    > > The EU is not going away out of their lives whatever happens. It's the supranational body equivalent of Piers Morgan.
    >
    > You voted to remain in the supranational body equivalent of Piers Morgan? For heaven's sake, why?

    Sometimes the choice is between bad and worse. Clueless xenophobia torching Britain’s civic institutions is worse than staying in an irritating, lumbering but essential benign organisation.

    No Leaver could honestly say that the country is in a better place than it was three years ago.
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    edited May 2019
    > @Jonathan said:
    > > @Roger said:
    > > The biggesst 'crime' Mrs May has committed is leaving us with a choice of Johnson Gove and Leadsom as her successor.
    >
    > May has achieved the impossible, leaving the country in a worse state than she inherited from Cameron. What’s scary is the next PM will probably do the same.

    This.
    May has done very much wrong. In June 2016, defeated Remainers like me were acquiescent. The calls to stop Brexit consisted of AC Grayling and a few other fringe commentators. The Lib Dems were still floating on their side in their bowl.
    Then came May's government and the hostile environment for moderates began. Calls for moderation were dismissed as Remoaning. Foreigners were scapegoated. Even the judiciary was attacked for applying the law of the land. Theresa May allowed this to happen, and in some cases participated.

    She is a classic Tory, divide and rule. She is also a classic tragic figure. Her flaw has become her downfall: she is now the victim of that division, with voters going Lib Dem and Brexit Party. She prodded wounds that should have been dressed. She punched down instead of gathering the country together. She kept people at her side who were obviously incapable of doing their job because she didn't have the stomach to confront those with their own power base. In doing that she undermined her own authority and looked weak and temporary. She has deferred difficult tasks to her successor, and clung on needlessly so delaying them.

    There has not been such a craven, self-defeating and pathetic prime minister in my lifetime.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    > @Nigelb said:

    > An interesting piece of political research:

    >

    > “New research finds that voters are more likely to support a liberal candidate whose rhetoric reflects conservative values.”

    > https://psmag.com/news/framing-liberal-policies-within-conservative-values-can-be-uniquely-persuasive

    >

    > Clearly there are different possible reasons for this result, but the effect is large enough to be interesting.



    Hmmmmm



    Which Democratic candidate can speak of his military service in Afghanistan, and appears very comfortable in his Christianity...



    Which one...

    Seth could do that as well, although it would be Iraq not Afghanistan for him.

    He’s doing really well - on track to beat Malone’s performance last time round
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    eristdoof said:

    > @HYUFD said:

    > The UN General Assembly votes by 116 votes to 6 that the UK should hand back the Chagoa Islands to Mauritius despite the UK's insistence they will only be handed back once they have ceased use as a defence base.

    >

    > Only the USA, Israel, Australia, the Maldives and Hungary voted with the UK with France and Germany abstaining

    >

    > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48371388



    Look a squirrel!

    Guess we know who our closest allies are. Do the Maldives just dislike Mauritius?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    >
    > > The UN General Assembly votes by 116 votes to 6 that the UK should hand back the Chagoa Islands to Mauritius despite the UK's insistence they will only be handed back once they have ceased use as a defence base.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Only the USA, Israel, Australia, the Maldives and Hungary voted with the UK with France and Germany abstaining
    >
    > >
    >
    > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48371388
    >
    >
    >
    > Look a squirrel!
    >
    > Guess we know who our closest allies are. Do the Maldives just dislike Mauritius?

    The island is used as a military basis. The Maldives may just like having the US and British Navies in the area..
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited May 2019

    > @JosiasJessop said:

    > > @JosiasJessop said:

    >

    > > That assumes the Brexiteers did not actually want to leave the EU, merely to rail against it. Not all Leavers can be Russian trolls.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > The problem is one of definition: what does 'leave' mean? For many, May's deal equates to leave. For the Faragists, it means only a 'pure' fuck-the-country no-deal.

    >

    >

    >

    > Exactly. That is why we needed -- and still do need, and will need even with a new prime minister in February 2022 when Theresa May finally retires -- a commission to establish what precisely is our Brexit goal. Then we can try to achieve it.

    >

    > We're going around in circles: there is no way a Commission would have endorsed a no-deal Brexit, which means that Farage would be able to argue against its findings as being an establishment stitch-up, and still giver political power to himself and whichever party he's running that particular day.

    >

    > You need to wargame your position: the Brexiteers wanted to win, and you need to consider how they would have reacted in order to win.



    If we assume Farage does actually want to leave the EU, then it does not follow that he would refuse to serve and then actively undermine such a commission. Even if he did, the weight of other Leavers would be against him.



    You are right but misleading when you say the Brexiteers wanted to win. More important is they do actually want Brexit.

    But again: what is Brexit - and that's the question that's got us into this mess.
    Brexit is morning dew on a crisp spring day. Brexit is the laughter of children. It's the smell of roast dinner at Christmas. The warmth of a summers day.

    And so on
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > @Endillion said:
    > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > > I really don’t think that the absence of a consensus is down to saboteurs (the MPs,incidentally, were elected after the referendum result). It’s down to a vile referendum campaign, followed by Leavers competing to set purity tests and whip up paranoia about traitors and quislings. But most of all it is down to Leavers being utterly clueless about what they do want as opposed to what they don’t want.
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > ___________________
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Slightly unfair to Leavers, I think. They want the UK to be masters of its own ship and the EU, which they never much liked, to go away out of their lives.
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Problem is, Brexit gives the exact opposite. We will never be more beholden to the EU, which will dominate our lives much more comprehensively than ever before.
    > > >
    > > > The EU is not going away out of their lives whatever happens. It's the supranational body equivalent of Piers Morgan.
    > >
    > > You voted to remain in the supranational body equivalent of Piers Morgan? For heaven's sake, why?
    >
    > Sometimes the choice is between bad and worse. Clueless xenophobia torching Britain’s civic institutions is worse than staying in an irritating, lumbering but essential benign organisation.
    >
    > No Leaver could honestly say that the country is in a better place than it was three years ago.

    I suspect you're average leaver can't tell the difference but will claim that there are more foreigners than before (because they now look out for them so notice them).
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > > @JosiasJessop said:
    >
    > > > @JosiasJessop said:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > That assumes the Brexiteers did not actually want to leave the EU, merely to rail against it. Not all Leavers can be Russian trolls.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > The problem is one of definition: what does 'leave' mean? For many, May's deal equates to leave. For the Faragists, it means only a 'pure' fuck-the-country no-deal.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Exactly. That is why we needed -- and still do need, and will need even with a new prime minister in February 2022 when Theresa May finally retires -- a commission to establish what precisely is our Brexit goal. Then we can try to achieve it.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > We're going around in circles: there is no way a Commission would have endorsed a no-deal Brexit, which means that Farage would be able to argue against its findings as being an establishment stitch-up, and still giver political power to himself and whichever party he's running that particular day.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > You need to wargame your position: the Brexiteers wanted to win, and you need to consider how they would have reacted in order to win.
    >
    >
    >
    > If we assume Farage does actually want to leave the EU, then it does not follow that he would refuse to serve and then actively undermine such a commission. Even if he did, the weight of other Leavers would be against him.
    >
    >
    >
    > You are right but misleading when you say the Brexiteers wanted to win. More important is they do actually want Brexit.
    >
    > But again: what is Brexit - and that's the question that's got us into this mess.

    That would be for a leaver-stuffed Royal Commission to establish. This is where we came in.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,736
    Roger said:

    The biggesst 'crime' Mrs May has committed is leaving us with a choice of Johnson Gove and Leadsom as her successor.

    I wouldn't regard political mistakes as crimes. Perhaps that description is best reserved for deporting British citizens of the Windrush generation. A crime that she threw her oldest political ally under the wheels of a bus for.

    I have no sympathy for May and her forthcoming humiliation. She brought it on herself, hubris followed by nemesis.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    > @ah009 said:
    > > @Jonathan said:
    > > > @Roger said:
    > > > The biggesst 'crime' Mrs May has committed is leaving us with a choice of Johnson Gove and Leadsom as her successor.
    > >
    > > May has achieved the impossible, leaving the country in a worse state than she inherited from Cameron. What’s scary is the next PM will probably do the same.
    >
    > This.
    > May has done very much wrong. In June 2016, defeated Remainers like me were acquiescent. The calls to stop Brexit consisted of AC Grayling and a few other fringe commentators. The Lib Dems were still floating on their side in their bowl.
    > Then came May's government and the hostile environment for moderates began. Calls for moderation were dismissed as Remoaning. Foreigners were scapegoated. Even the judiciary was attacked for applying the law of the land. Theresa May allowed this to happen, and in some cases participated.
    >
    > She is a classic Tory, divide and rule. She is also a classic tragic figure. Her flaw has become her downfall: she is now the victim of that division, with voters going Lib Dem and Brexit Party. She prodded wounds that should have been dressed. She punched down instead of gathering the country together. She kept people at her side who were obviously incapable of doing their job because she didn't have the stomach to confront those with their own power base. In doing that she undermined her own authority and looked weak and temporary. She has deferred difficult tasks to her successor, and clung on needlessly so delaying them.
    >
    > There has not been such a craven, self-defeating and pathetic prime minister in my lifetime.

    May negotiated the Withdrawal Agreement which respected the reasons for the Leave victory as far as could possibly be done while still getting a Deal with the EU
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited May 2019
    HYUFD said:

    > @ah009 said:

    > > @Jonathan said:

    > > > @Roger said:

    > > > The biggesst 'crime' Mrs May has committed is leaving us with a choice of Johnson Gove and Leadsom as her successor.

    > >

    > > May has achieved the impossible, leaving the country in a worse state than she inherited from Cameron. What’s scary is the next PM will probably do the same.

    >

    > This.

    > May has done very much wrong. In June 2016, defeated Remainers like me were acquiescent. The calls to stop Brexit consisted of AC Grayling and a few other fringe commentators. The Lib Dems were still floating on their side in their bowl.

    > Then came May's government and the hostile environment for moderates began. Calls for moderation were dismissed as Remoaning. Foreigners were scapegoated. Even the judiciary was attacked for applying the law of the land. Theresa May allowed this to happen, and in some cases participated.

    >

    > She is a classic Tory, divide and rule. She is also a classic tragic figure. Her flaw has become her downfall: she is now the victim of that division, with voters going Lib Dem and Brexit Party. She prodded wounds that should have been dressed. She punched down instead of gathering the country together. She kept people at her side who were obviously incapable of doing their job because she didn't have the stomach to confront those with their own power base. In doing that she undermined her own authority and looked weak and temporary. She has deferred difficult tasks to her successor, and clung on needlessly so delaying them.

    >

    > There has not been such a craven, self-defeating and pathetic prime minister in my lifetime.



    May negotiated the Withdrawal Agreement which respected the reasons for the Leave victory as far as could possibly be done while still getting a Deal with the EU

    Which the vast majority of Tory mps voted for and thus agreed with, however reluctantly.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,712
    eristdoof said:

    > @JosiasJessop said:

    > > @JosiasJessop said:

    >

    > > That assumes the Brexiteers did not actually want to leave the EU, merely to rail against it. Not all Leavers can be Russian trolls.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > The problem is one of definition: what does 'leave' mean? For many, May's deal equates to leave. For the Faragists, it means only a 'pure' fuck-the-country no-deal.

    >

    >

    >

    > Exactly. That is why we needed -- and still do need, and will need even with a new prime minister in February 2022 when Theresa May finally retires -- a commission to establish what precisely is our Brexit goal. Then we can try to achieve it.

    >

    > We're going around in circles: there is no way a Commission would have endorsed a no-deal Brexit, which means that Farage would be able to argue against its findings as being an establishment stitch-up, and still giver political power to himself and whichever party he's running that particular day.

    >

    > You need to wargame your position: the Brexiteers wanted to win, and you need to consider how they would have reacted in order to win.



    Repeating the same argument is not going round in circles.



    Farage might well have claimed that it was an establishment stitch up, but losing a referendum on a Royal Commision would have taken the wind out of his sails.

    The reason: this Brexit Crisis has grown via the Conservative party not UKIP/Farage, and Conservatives can't rail against "The Establishment"

    Losing a referendum would not have stopped the Europhobia that has poisoned this country's politics for decades. We're already seeing a meme of 'betrayal' from the Europhobes; that's how it would have played out then.

    As we see from the polls, Europhobia infects Labour voters as well as the Conservatives. And Europhobia's the problem: without that magically going away, we'd end up in this sort of position regardless
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited May 2019
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    >
    > > The UN General Assembly votes by 116 votes to 6 that the UK should hand back the Chagoa Islands to Mauritius despite the UK's insistence they will only be handed back once they have ceased use as a defence base.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Only the USA, Israel, Australia, the Maldives and Hungary voted with the UK with France and Germany abstaining
    >
    > >
    >
    > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48371388
    >
    >
    >
    > Look a squirrel!
    >
    > Guess we know who our closest allies are. Do the Maldives just dislike Mauritius?

    Largely a repeat of the Iraq War coalition, the Maldives and Mauritius are big winter sun rivals for UK tourists
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    There seems to be a lot of "We can't leave because it's clearly too difficult." Is that meant to be a reason for staying? Did anyone say that before the referendum? No, because it would have put 10% on the Leave vote.

    I think the statement should be "We can't leave because we brought in the MPs to decide on the form of Brexit and they didn't want to leave."

    Who brought them in? I think you'll find that was the die-hard Remainers.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > @Endillion said:
    > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > > I really don’t think that the absence of a consensus is down to saboteurs (the MPs,incidentally, were elected after the referendum result). It’s down to a vile referendum campaign, followed by Leavers competing to set purity tests and whip up paranoia about traitors and quislings. But most of all it is down to Leavers being utterly clueless about what they do want as opposed to what they don’t want.
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > ___________________
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Slightly unfair to Leavers, I think. They want the UK to be masters of its own ship and the EU, which they never much liked, to go away out of their lives.
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Problem is, Brexit gives the exact opposite. We will never be more beholden to the EU, which will dominate our lives much more comprehensively than ever before.
    > > >
    > > > The EU is not going away out of their lives whatever happens. It's the supranational body equivalent of Piers Morgan.
    > >
    > > You voted to remain in the supranational body equivalent of Piers Morgan? For heaven's sake, why?
    >
    > Sometimes the choice is between bad and worse. Clueless xenophobia torching Britain’s civic institutions is worse than staying in an irritating, lumbering but essential benign organisation.
    >
    > No Leaver could honestly say that the country is in a better place than it was three years ago.

    Given that we have not left and that the current situation stems from people trying to prevent our leaving your point is wildly wrong.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    > @Morris_Dancer said:



    > The BBC weather forecast, which seems less useful than it did a few years ago, has it 90% or so dry on Saturday.



    The national broadcaster no longer uses forecasts from the national weather service, but from a private outfit that uses the freely available forecasts produced by the US weather service. Meanwhile the USN and USAF do use forecasts from our weather service.

    The USN (dunno about USAF) get their met info from the USN FNMOC in Monterey, California (nice draft if you can get it). FNMOC get their raw data from the NOAA who, bizarrely, have naval ranks and uniforms but only have officers with no enlisted personnel.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2019
    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    May perhaps didn’t feel the need to overreach to Remainers because she was a Remainer herself who had allowed the highest net migration in history as Home Sec. She probably thought that was enough evidence she was one of them, and she’d better try to get leavers onside before offering a deal none of their big players would accept.

    Words speak louder than actions apparently.

    Still, despite the obituaries, she is still a decent price to step down before July


    Surely the value there is the Q3 bet, as she’s likely to remain in place until the contest has concluded? Maybe even with a few pence covering October.
    Quite extraordinary given the headlines that she is now 4/7 to go before July

    I quite like the 100/1 she goes in Oct-Dec. Clinging on until the next deadline


  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > @Endillion said:
    > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > > I really don’t think that the absence of a consensus is down to saboteurs (the MPs,incidentally, were elected after the referendum result). It’s down to a vile referendum campaign, followed by Leavers competing to set purity tests and whip up paranoia about traitors and quislings. But most of all it is down to Leavers being utterly clueless about what they do want as opposed to what they don’t want.
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > ___________________
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Slightly unfair to Leavers, I think. They want the UK to be masters of its own ship and the EU, which they never much liked, to go away out of their lives.
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Problem is, Brexit gives the exact opposite. We will never be more beholden to the EU, which will dominate our lives much more comprehensively than ever before.
    > > >
    > > > The EU is not going away out of their lives whatever happens. It's the supranational body equivalent of Piers Morgan.
    > >
    > > You voted to remain in the supranational body equivalent of Piers Morgan? For heaven's sake, why?
    >
    > Sometimes the choice is between bad and worse. Clueless xenophobia torching Britain’s civic institutions is worse than staying in an irritating, lumbering but essential benign organisation.
    >
    > No Leaver could honestly say that the country is in a better place than it was three years ago.

    Couldn’t agree more .

    What happened to the country that put on the Olympics in 2012.

    Farage and the rest have stoked xenophobia , now he’s pretending to be a marty for democracy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited May 2019

    > @AlastairMeeks said:

    > > @Endillion said:

    > > > @AlastairMeeks said:

    > > > > @AlastairMeeks said:

    > > >

    > > >

    > > >

    > > > > I really don’t think that the absence of a consensus is down to saboteurs (the MPs,incidentally, were elected after the referendum result). It’s down to a vile referendum campaign, followed by Leavers competing to set purity tests and whip up paranoia about traitors and quislings. But most of all it is down to Leavers being utterly clueless about what they do want as opposed to what they don’t want.

    > > >

    > > >

    > > >

    > > > ___________________

    > > >

    > > >

    > > >

    > > > Slightly unfair to Leavers, I think. They want the UK to be masters of its own ship and the EU, which they never much liked, to go away out of their lives.

    > > >

    > > >

    > > >

    > > > Problem is, Brexit gives the exact opposite. We will never be more beholden to the EU, which will dominate our lives much more comprehensively than ever before.

    > > >

    > > > The EU is not going away out of their lives whatever happens. It's the supranational body equivalent of Piers Morgan.

    > >

    > > You voted to remain in the supranational body equivalent of Piers Morgan? For heaven's sake, why?

    >

    > Sometimes the choice is between bad and worse. Clueless xenophobia torching Britain’s civic institutions is worse than staying in an irritating, lumbering but essential benign organisation.

    >

    > No Leaver could honestly say that the country is in a better place than it was three years ago.



    Given that we have not left and that the current situation stems from people trying to prevent our leaving your point is wildly wrong.

    An alliance of people trying to prevent our leaving and those who technically want to leave but keep voting against doing so i think you mean.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @ah009 said:
    >
    > > > @Jonathan said:
    >
    > > > > @Roger said:
    >
    > > > > The biggesst 'crime' Mrs May has committed is leaving us with a choice of Johnson Gove and Leadsom as her successor.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > May has achieved the impossible, leaving the country in a worse state than she inherited from Cameron. What’s scary is the next PM will probably do the same.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > This.
    >
    > > May has done very much wrong. In June 2016, defeated Remainers like me were acquiescent. The calls to stop Brexit consisted of AC Grayling and a few other fringe commentators. The Lib Dems were still floating on their side in their bowl.
    >
    > > Then came May's government and the hostile environment for moderates began. Calls for moderation were dismissed as Remoaning. Foreigners were scapegoated. Even the judiciary was attacked for applying the law of the land. Theresa May allowed this to happen, and in some cases participated.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > She is a classic Tory, divide and rule. She is also a classic tragic figure. Her flaw has become her downfall: she is now the victim of that division, with voters going Lib Dem and Brexit Party. She prodded wounds that should have been dressed. She punched down instead of gathering the country together. She kept people at her side who were obviously incapable of doing their job because she didn't have the stomach to confront those with their own power base. In doing that she undermined her own authority and looked weak and temporary. She has deferred difficult tasks to her successor, and clung on needlessly so delaying them.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > There has not been such a craven, self-defeating and pathetic prime minister in my lifetime.
    >
    >
    >
    > May negotiated the Withdrawal Agreement which respected the reasons for the Leave victory as far as could possibly be done while still getting a Deal with the EU
    >
    > Which the vast majority of Tory mps voted for and thus agreed with, however reluctantly.

    Indeed, however because of Tory ERG diehard Brexiteers and Tory diehard Remainer rebels it will only pass with Labour rebels from Leave seats
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    nico67 said:

    > @AlastairMeeks said:

    > > @Endillion said:

    > > > @AlastairMeeks said:

    > > > > @AlastairMeeks said:

    > > >

    > > >

    > > >

    > > > > I really don’t think that the absence of a consensus is down to saboteurs (the MPs,incidentally, were elected after the referendum result). It’s down to a vile referendum campaign, followed by Leavers competing to set purity tests and whip up paranoia about traitors and quislings. But most of all it is down to Leavers being utterly clueless about what they do want as opposed to what they don’t want.

    > > >

    > > >

    > > >

    > > > ___________________

    > > >

    > > >

    > > >

    > > > Slightly unfair to Leavers, I think. They want the UK to be masters of its own ship and the EU, which they never much liked, to go away out of their lives.

    > > >

    > > >

    > > >

    > > > Problem is, Brexit gives the exact opposite. We will never be more beholden to the EU, which will dominate our lives much more comprehensively than ever before.

    > > >

    > > > The EU is not going away out of their lives whatever happens. It's the supranational body equivalent of Piers Morgan.

    > >

    > > You voted to remain in the supranational body equivalent of Piers Morgan? For heaven's sake, why?

    >

    > Sometimes the choice is between bad and worse. Clueless xenophobia torching Britain’s civic institutions is worse than staying in an irritating, lumbering but essential benign organisation.

    >

    > No Leaver could honestly say that the country is in a better place than it was three years ago.



    Couldn’t agree more .



    What happened to the country that put on the Olympics in 2012.



    Farage and the rest have stoked xenophobia , now he’s pretending to be a marty for democracy.

    What happened to the country? Its having a political crisis, get a grip. Woe is us stuff is just tiresome when so overblown. We are in deep deep trouble but come on. Let's have a 'please think of the children' while were at it.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    nico67 said:


    What happened to the country that put on the Olympics in 2012.

    The country's moral, cultural and political decline since then has been precipitous. We only need economic decline to get the full nap hand.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    I took my two year old to the polling station this morning. Explained that I had to write X next to the people and picture I liked the best, etc., and then I put my X next to the pretty picture of a bird. Cue instant protest: “NO I want to choose a better one.” Oops.

    #votesat2
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    HYUFD said:

    > @kle4 said:

    > > @ah009 said:

    >

    > > > @Jonathan said:

    >

    > > > > @Roger said:

    >

    > > > > The biggesst 'crime' Mrs May has committed is leaving us with a choice of Johnson Gove and Leadsom as her successor.

    >

    > > >

    >

    > > > May has achieved the impossible, leaving the country in a worse state than she inherited from Cameron. What’s scary is the next PM will probably do the same.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > This.

    >

    > > May has done very much wrong. In June 2016, defeated Remainers like me were acquiescent. The calls to stop Brexit consisted of AC Grayling and a few other fringe commentators. The Lib Dems were still floating on their side in their bowl.

    >

    > > Then came May's government and the hostile environment for moderates began. Calls for moderation were dismissed as Remoaning. Foreigners were scapegoated. Even the judiciary was attacked for applying the law of the land. Theresa May allowed this to happen, and in some cases participated.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > She is a classic Tory, divide and rule. She is also a classic tragic figure. Her flaw has become her downfall: she is now the victim of that division, with voters going Lib Dem and Brexit Party. She prodded wounds that should have been dressed. She punched down instead of gathering the country together. She kept people at her side who were obviously incapable of doing their job because she didn't have the stomach to confront those with their own power base. In doing that she undermined her own authority and looked weak and temporary. She has deferred difficult tasks to her successor, and clung on needlessly so delaying them.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > There has not been such a craven, self-defeating and pathetic prime minister in my lifetime.

    >

    >

    >

    > e EU

    >

    > Which the vast majority of Tory mps voted for and thus agreed with, however reluctantly.



    Indeed, however because of Tory ERG diehard Brexiteers and Tory diehard Remainer rebels it will only pass with Labour rebels from Leave seats

    Merely making sure that all those Tory mps about to tear into may remember they did almost all back her not that long ago.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    > @Dura_Ace said:
    > What happened to the country that put on the Olympics in 2012.
    >
    >
    >
    > The country's moral, cultural and political decline since then has been precipitous. We only need economic decline to get the full nap hand.

    It's the difference a Tory government makes. The LDs acted as a bit of a brake. But after 9 years we end up here.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Dura_Ace said:

    nico67 said:


    What happened to the country that put on the Olympics in 2012.

    The country's moral, cultural and political decline since then has been precipitous. We only need economic decline to get the full nap hand.
    Cultural decline?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    I took my two year old to the polling station this morning. Explained that I had to write X next to the people and picture I liked the best, etc., and then I put my X next to the pretty picture of a bird. Cue instant protest: “NO I want to choose a better one.” Oops.

    #votesat2

    Always great to see a future political enthusiast in action.
This discussion has been closed.