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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Euro election day it looks as though it is all over for the

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  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    > @rottenborough said:
    > Wow. I mean just wow! This is becoming simply incredible.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131506007526576129

    TBH its been surreal for quite a while now.
  • John_McLeanJohn_McLean Posts: 71
    edited May 2019
    Just a thought on Trump's visit, apart from playing golf on his courses and having a cup of tea with HMQ, he will be going off to the D-day remembrances in Normandy. Wonder if TMay will be holding his hand as they look over edge at the Pointe du Hoc...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    > @brokenwheel said:
    > I voted Conservative.
    >
    > Minor parties deserve a boost. :D

    A real laugh out loud moment.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    So sad to hear about Judith Kerr. Her Mogg books were such great favourites in our household as was The Tiger Who Came to Tea.

    There are some good interviews with her on BBC radio. Worth seeking out. Lovely woman.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    > @Brom said:
    > 32% seems about right IMO, they will be happy with that. Given the Tory decline I struggle to see them getting the same vote share as UKIP 2014 even if they are overstated.

    You mean 2009.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    For what little it's worth, there was a queue this morning in Essex leave country - was dead at the same time for the locals
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    > @Floater said:
    > https://order-order.com/2019/05/23/brexit-party-teller-attacked-milkshake/

    What a pity there wasn't the same concern about Jo Cox or the female MP threatened by Brexit thugs outside the commons.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    > @maaarsh said:
    > For what little it's worth, there was a queue this morning in Essex leave country - was dead at the same time for the locals

    i voted in North Essex - the only person there at the time !!!
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @MikeSmithson said:
    > > @Floater said:
    > > https://order-order.com/2019/05/23/brexit-party-teller-attacked-milkshake/
    >
    > What a pity there wasn't the same concern about Jo Cox or the female MP threatened by Brexit thugs outside the commons.
    >

    There were several, I believe. Cherry, Soubry, off the top of my head.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,712
    My leaflet count for this election:

    Brexit Party: 1
    Lib Dem: 4 (all different, one hand-delivered and named to me, this morning).
    Labour: 1
    Green: 1
    UKIP: 1
    Chnage UK: 1
    English Democrats: 1
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572
    > @MikeSmithson said:
    > > @Floater said:
    > > https://order-order.com/2019/05/23/brexit-party-teller-attacked-milkshake/
    >
    > What a pity there wasn't the same concern about Jo Cox or the female MP threatened by Brexit thugs outside the commons.
    >

    1. There was huge concern about Jo Cox.
    2. You must live in a pretty warped world where you consider verbal attacks - however wrong that might be - to be on a par with actual physical assaults.

    All attacks are wrong but your whataboutism is pretty sickening.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Floater said:

    > @rottenborough said:

    > Wow. I mean just wow! This is becoming simply incredible.

    >

    >





    TBH its been surreal for quite a while now.
    I am beginning to wonder whether the attempted defenestration of May wont end up in court.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Weren’t we promised an Ipsos phone poll this morning?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    edited May 2019
    Yeh Gods. This is one of the responsibilities of being in Cabinet. Get a grip.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131509425515192320
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131509425515192320

    This is why we need feminism. Women can be useless too, and this PM deserves to be flung from power with no pity or ceremony. Her gender should not be an issue. Let her be treated exactly as a man with the same record would be.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Floater said:
    🥤🥤🥤🥤 THIS MACHINE KILLS FASCISTS.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    > @Floater said:

    > https://order-order.com/2019/05/23/brexit-party-teller-attacked-milkshake/



    What a pity there wasn't the same concern about Jo Cox or the female MP threatened by Brexit thugs outside the commons.

    It's quite a thing to say there wasn't the same concern shown about Jo Cox, how do you justify that?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > @MikeSmithson said:
    > > > @Floater said:
    > > > https://order-order.com/2019/05/23/brexit-party-teller-attacked-milkshake/
    > >
    > > What a pity there wasn't the same concern about Jo Cox or the female MP threatened by Brexit thugs outside the commons.
    > >
    >
    > 1. There was huge concern about Jo Cox.
    > 2. You must live in a pretty warped world where you consider verbal attacks - however wrong that might be - to be on a par with actual physical assaults.
    >
    > All attacks are wrong but your whataboutism is pretty sickening.
    >

    That comment really wasn't worthy of Mike.

    All attacks on any politician of any party are wrong.

    Should be a statement of the bleeding obvious.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,712

    > @MikeSmithson said:

    > > @Floater said:

    > > https://order-order.com/2019/05/23/brexit-party-teller-attacked-milkshake/

    >

    > What a pity there wasn't the same concern about Jo Cox or the female MP threatened by Brexit thugs outside the commons.

    >



    1. There was huge concern about Jo Cox.

    2. You must live in a pretty warped world where you consider verbal attacks - however wrong that might be - to be on a par with actual physical assaults.



    All attacks are wrong but your whataboutism is pretty sickening.

    Repeated verbal attacks: e.g. "I'll kill you!" can easily be on a par - or worse - than throwing a milkshake over someone. Both can lead to fear of repeated or real attacks.

    To make it clear: both are wrong and should be condemned.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AndyJS said:

    > @Alistair said:

    > Anyone think that BXP 5 of 25-29.99% is value @ 9.6 on BF Exchange?

    >

    > I took 20-30 with Ladbrokes @ 9 yesterday.

    >

    > A good value loser I think.



    Their average in the polls is about 32%.

    Yup, so just need a 3% polling miss and I hit. My view is this is an impossible to poll election due to the number of assumptions you would have to make weighting the results so a good chance of a polling miss.

    I'm contemplating taking the 40% plus band for Brexit Party too, the miss could easily be in the other direction.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572
    > @Alistair said:
    > https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/1131495726599610369

    Is that legal? I thought there were rules about how close adverts can be to a polling station?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    > @isam said:
    > > @Floater said:
    >
    > > https://order-order.com/2019/05/23/brexit-party-teller-attacked-milkshake/
    >
    >
    >
    > What a pity there wasn't the same concern about Jo Cox or the female MP threatened by Brexit thugs outside the commons.
    >
    > It's quite a thing to say there wasn't the same concern shown about Jo Cox, how do you justify that?

    Brexit derangement syndrome?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > My leaflet count for this election:
    >
    > Brexit Party: 1
    > Lib Dem: 4 (all different, one hand-delivered and named to me, this morning).
    > Labour: 1
    > Green: 1
    > UKIP: 1
    > Chnage UK: 1
    > English Democrats: 1

    I have received nothing from the LibDems or the Tories.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    > @MikeSmithson said:
    > > @Floater said:
    > > https://order-order.com/2019/05/23/brexit-party-teller-attacked-milkshake/
    >
    > What a pity there wasn't the same concern about Jo Cox or the female MP threatened by Brexit thugs outside the commons.
    >

    Can I just say I voted Brexit Party and was incredibly saddened by what happened to Jo Cox. Indeed I wrote a post on facebook saying had I not already voted I would have abstained in the referendum as I hated the way the debate had become so toxic. It's ridiculous people take glee from milkshake being thrown at ordinary people, let alone politicians.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Civic duty complete

    No queue

    Total of 50 voters in the last hour apparently
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815
    edited May 2019
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > My leaflet count for this election:
    >
    > Brexit Party: 1
    > Lib Dem: 4 (all different, one hand-delivered and named to me, this morning).
    > Labour: 1
    > Green: 1
    > UKIP: 1
    > Chnage UK: 1
    > English Democrats: 1

    ------------------------------------------------------

    1 Green - post

    2? Labour - post (it was the same leaflet and not addressed and on consecutive days so assume Royal Mail cockup)

    5 LD - 4 individually posted to 4 voters in house, 3 on different days, 1 hand delivered.

    0 The rest

    Don't understand the rest all being zero as I have seen on here Brexit Party post deliveries that have been personally addressed. Why nil for us?

    Has anyone had a Tory leaflet via the post?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > @Alistair said:
    > > https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/1131495726599610369
    >
    > Is that legal? I thought there were rules about how close adverts can be to a polling station?

    Neither Nige nor Nicola will be worrying too much about its effect.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > > @MikeSmithson said:
    >
    > > > @Floater said:
    >
    > > > https://order-order.com/2019/05/23/brexit-party-teller-attacked-milkshake/
    >
    > >
    >
    > > What a pity there wasn't the same concern about Jo Cox or the female MP threatened by Brexit thugs outside the commons.
    >
    > >
    >
    >
    >
    > 1. There was huge concern about Jo Cox.
    >
    > 2. You must live in a pretty warped world where you consider verbal attacks - however wrong that might be - to be on a par with actual physical assaults.
    >
    >
    >
    > All attacks are wrong but your whataboutism is pretty sickening.
    >
    > Repeated verbal attacks: e.g. "I'll kill you!" can easily be on a par - or worse - than throwing a milkshake over someone. Both can lead to fear of repeated or real attacks.
    >
    > To make it clear: both are wrong and should be condemned.

    I agree. But I was not aware that the verbal assaults on Anna Soubry - as wrong as they were - involved actual threats to her person. The idiot concerned was arrested for public order offences not for threats.

    So again there is a large element of whataboutism in Mike's arguments.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    > @Scott_P said:
    > Civic duty complete
    >
    > No queue
    >
    > Total of 50 voters in the last hour apparently

    Is that high or low ?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    isam said:

    > @Floater said:

    > https://order-order.com/2019/05/23/brexit-party-teller-attacked-milkshake/



    What a pity there wasn't the same concern about Jo Cox or the female MP threatened by Brexit thugs outside the commons.

    It's quite a thing to say there wasn't the same concern shown about Jo Cox, how do you justify that?
    I imagine Mike means that the likes of Guido tried to pretend it never happened. It does seem that Guido's most prominent mention of it is to puff an article by Brendan that used it as a means to attack the pro-EU media.

    https://order-order.com/quote/brendan-oneill-on-the-coverage-of-jo-coxs-murder/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Just laid the 60-70% band on Betfair at 10.0 for small beer.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1131513167975256064

    I'm sure all the milkshakers are very proud now.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pulpstar said:

    Is that high or low ?

    yes
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @Brom said:
    > > @MikeSmithson said:
    > > > @Floater said:
    > > > https://order-order.com/2019/05/23/brexit-party-teller-attacked-milkshake/
    > >
    > > What a pity there wasn't the same concern about Jo Cox or the female MP threatened by Brexit thugs outside the commons.
    > >
    >
    > Can I just say I voted Brexit Party and was incredibly saddened by what happened to Jo Cox. Indeed I wrote a post on facebook saying had I not already voted I would have abstained in the referendum as I hated the way the debate had become so toxic. It's ridiculous people take glee from milkshake being thrown at ordinary people, let alone politicians.

    Farage's comment, "without a shot being fired", a week after Cox was murdered.
    And you just voted for him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    HYUFD said:
    The hardline brexiteers will be happy. It's the moderates who are screwed
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Curious scene outside Oxford railway station this morning. Two young women - I suspect paid-for employees rather than volunteer activists, given their manner of speaking - handing out leaflets to commuters. I didn't take one, but from a brief glance, they appeared to be Change UK leaflets (the logo was there) with the headline "Want to maximise the Remain vote in this election?".

    I'm guessing it didn't go on to say "...in that case, don't vote Change UK". I'll pick one up if they're still there when I go back.

    Meanwhile, a bunch of young enthusiastic Lib Dems outside a city centre polling station handing out "I voted to Stop Brexit" stickers seemed to be doing a roaring trade.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > @JosiasJessop said:
    > > > @MikeSmithson said:
    > >
    > > > > @Floater said:
    > >
    > > > > https://order-order.com/2019/05/23/brexit-party-teller-attacked-milkshake/
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > What a pity there wasn't the same concern about Jo Cox or the female MP threatened by Brexit thugs outside the commons.
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > 1. There was huge concern about Jo Cox.
    > >
    > > 2. You must live in a pretty warped world where you consider verbal attacks - however wrong that might be - to be on a par with actual physical assaults.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > All attacks are wrong but your whataboutism is pretty sickening.
    > >
    > > Repeated verbal attacks: e.g. "I'll kill you!" can easily be on a par - or worse - than throwing a milkshake over someone. Both can lead to fear of repeated or real attacks.
    > >
    > > To make it clear: both are wrong and should be condemned.
    >
    > I agree. But I was not aware that the verbal assaults on Anna Soubry - as wrong as they were - involved actual threats to her person. The idiot concerned was arrested for public order offences not for threats.
    >
    > So again there is a large element of whataboutism in Mike's arguments.

    They did:
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/man-convicted-over-death-threats-to-remainer-mp-anna-soubry-gwkn8jq3w
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Weren’t we expecting a poll from Ipsos Mori ?

    I thought that was going to be out in the morning .
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ah009 said:

    > @Brom said:

    > > @MikeSmithson said:

    > > > @Floater said:

    > > > https://order-order.com/2019/05/23/brexit-party-teller-attacked-milkshake/

    > >

    > > What a pity there wasn't the same concern about Jo Cox or the female MP threatened by Brexit thugs outside the commons.

    > >

    >

    > Can I just say I voted Brexit Party and was incredibly saddened by what happened to Jo Cox. Indeed I wrote a post on facebook saying had I not already voted I would have abstained in the referendum as I hated the way the debate had become so toxic. It's ridiculous people take glee from milkshake being thrown at ordinary people, let alone politicians.



    Farage's comment, "without a shot being fired", a week after Cox was murdered.

    And you just voted for him.

    Farage obviously meant that there had been some kind of "revolution" won at the ballot box rather than through armed struggle. He apologised for the comment about ten minutes later
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    If Tessy May could cling on till October, me and @isam would very much appreciate it.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    Just voted in Leeds (10 mins walk from Headingley cricket ground). A steady stream of people in and out for the 3-4 minutes I was there compared to the locals when there was only 1 other person there. I reckon turnout could nudge 40% if this keeps up.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    Should I vote Brexit Party? Or should I do a Rian Johnson, and subvert all of your expectations by voting LibDem? :lol:
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    > @ah009 said:
    > > @Brom said:
    > > > @MikeSmithson said:
    > > > > @Floater said:
    > > > > https://order-order.com/2019/05/23/brexit-party-teller-attacked-milkshake/
    > > >
    > > > What a pity there wasn't the same concern about Jo Cox or the female MP threatened by Brexit thugs outside the commons.
    > > >
    > >
    > > Can I just say I voted Brexit Party and was incredibly saddened by what happened to Jo Cox. Indeed I wrote a post on facebook saying had I not already voted I would have abstained in the referendum as I hated the way the debate had become so toxic. It's ridiculous people take glee from milkshake being thrown at ordinary people, let alone politicians.
    >
    > Farage's comment, "without a shot being fired", a week after Cox was murdered.
    > And you just voted for him.

    poor turn of phrase but obviously a figure of speech. Sad that you appear to support common assault when things don't go your way.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    nico67 said:

    Weren’t we expecting a poll from Ipsos Mori ?



    I thought that was going to be out in the morning .

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1131515877516554245
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited May 2019
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > Should I vote Brexit Party? Or should I do a Rian Johnson, and subvert all of your expectations by voting LibDem? :lol:

    If you're struggling between those two I guess Labour is the sensible choice.
    Actually if you're in London definitely vote Labour :D
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    If Tessy May could cling on till October, me and @isam would very much appreciate it.

    My first bet on my return to PB was a @ScottP tip on Paddy Power for May to go in March or April... so I have changed course and backed her to stay until Oct... big middle to fall into eek
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    Scott_P said:

    nico67 said:

    Weren’t we expecting a poll from Ipsos Mori ?



    I thought that was going to be out in the morning .

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1131515877516554245
    Tories 5th?? :lol:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    > @Nigelb said:
    > > @ah009 said:
    > > > @kinabalu said:
    > > > QUISLING ASSORTED REMAIN 15%
    > >
    > > christ
    >
    > I think (?) that was tongue in cheek - but it's a mark of current political discourse that it might easily be serious...

    So in cheek it's caused a muscle strain.

    :smile:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    > @isam said:
    > If Tessy May could cling on till October, me and @isam would very much appreciate it.
    >
    > My first bet on my return to PB was a @ScottP tip on Paddy Power for May to go in March or April... so I have changed course and backed her to stay until Oct... big middle to fall into eek

    Going long on May's exit has worked well thus far for me.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    > @rottenborough said:
    > Wow. I mean just wow! This is becoming simply incredible.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131506007526576129
    If the reports about the sealed envelopes are true she has no say if there is a rule change and vonc which she would not survive now.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    Pulpstar said:

    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:

    > Should I vote Brexit Party? Or should I do a Rian Johnson, and subvert all of your expectations by voting LibDem? :lol:



    If you're struggling between those two I guess Labour is the sensible choice.

    Actually if you're in London definitely vote Labour :D

    For context:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5S4Ss5bK-ws
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    > @ah009 said:
    > > @kinabalu said:
    > > QUISLING ASSORTED REMAIN 15%
    >
    > christ

    Sorry.

    But thanks for the tip that I can vote Labour and at the same time write "I AM NOT PREPARED TO TOLERATE BORIS JOHNSON AS ...." on my ballot.

    I had not realized that. I thought it was an either/or.
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @isam said:
    > Farage obviously meant that there had been some kind of "revolution" won at the ballot box rather than through armed struggle. He apologised for the comment about ten minutes later

    He still made the comment. No apology can ever unmake it. It was a glimpse into his lack of concern for what had happened. But to me it wasn't a surprise. He's clearly a person whose ideological stance is more important than his humanity. He's not alone in that, but people like him are dangerous. Very dangerous.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Whilst members of the PB Brains Trust is in session might I asked this august body if any luminary has views/ownership of the BMW i3 ?

    Mrs JackW sniffing the market.

    Thank you.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019
    FWIW here’s a guide to the different weightings of the polling companies, frustratingly not much of an obvious pattern;

    https://www.twitter.com/election_data/status/1131514223631192065
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @kinabalu said:
    > > @ah009 said:
    > > > @kinabalu said:
    > > > QUISLING ASSORTED REMAIN 15%
    > >
    > > christ
    >
    > Sorry.
    >
    > But thanks for the tip that I can vote Labour and at the same time write "I AM NOT PREPARED TO TOLERATE BORIS JOHNSON AS ...." on my ballot.
    >
    > I had not realized that. I thought it was an either/or.

    To be clear I was not advocating voting Labour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Just worked out, Nige will need over 11.2 million votes for me to lose both the turnout and BXP party lays on Betfair.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ah009 said:

    > @isam said:

    > Farage obviously meant that there had been some kind of "revolution" won at the ballot box rather than through armed struggle. He apologised for the comment about ten minutes later



    He still made the comment. No apology can ever unmake it. It was a glimpse into his lack of concern for what had happened. But to me it wasn't a surprise. He's clearly a person whose ideological stance is more important than his humanity. He's not alone in that, but people like him are dangerous. Very dangerous.

    At least we aren't into very VERY dangerous territory :D
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019

    Should I vote Brexit Party? Or should I do a Rian Johnson, and subvert all of your expectations by voting LibDem? :lol:

    I was going to vote Lib Dem but that BP arrow was too strong... :p
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Cyclefree said:

    The 4th Tory leader destroyed by the European question.

    Who will the 5th one be?

    Boris. He has nothing but bluster to rely on.
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @isam said:
    > If Tessy May could cling on till October, me and @isam would very much appreciate it.
    >
    > My first bet on my return to PB was a @ScottP tip on Paddy Power for May to go in March or April... so I have changed course and backed her to stay until Oct... big middle to fall into eek

    PM, yes? Not Tory leader?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    > @kle4 said:

    > Brexit is morning dew on a crisp spring day. Brexit is the laughter of children. It's the smell of roast dinner at Christmas. The warmth of a summers day.

    >

    > And so on



    I initially read that as the slaughter of children..

    That's a sign of nascent Tory thought, thinking of babies being killed - refer yourself to a doctor quickly before it spreads.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Those IPSOS/Mori numbers match mine published here earlier this morning. Last night I'd have only charged then 500 guineas for a preview.

    Bloody cheapskates .. :smiley:
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    > @Scott_P said:
    > Weren’t we expecting a poll from Ipsos Mori ?
    >
    >
    >
    > I thought that was going to be out in the morning .
    >
    > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1131515877516554245

    Thanks Mike .

    Yesssss! Lib Dems ahead of Labour .

    If the result is close to that I dare Corbyn and co to spin that as wanting to get on with Brexit!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    > @ah009 said:
    > > @isam said:
    > > If Tessy May could cling on till October, me and @isam would very much appreciate it.
    > >
    > > My first bet on my return to PB was a @ScottP tip on Paddy Power for May to go in March or April... so I have changed course and backed her to stay until Oct... big middle to fall into eek
    >
    > PM, yes? Not Tory leader?

    Party leader.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2019
    ah009 said:

    > @isam said:

    > If Tessy May could cling on till October, me and @isam would very much appreciate it.

    >

    > My first bet on my return to PB was a @ScottP tip on Paddy Power for May to go in March or April... so I have changed course and backed her to stay until Oct... big middle to fall into eek



    PM, yes? Not Tory leader?

    Is there a market on her departure date as PM?
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    > @Sean_F said:
    > I voted Conservative.

    Why?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,869
    edited May 2019
    > @El_Capitano said:
    > I took my two year old to the polling station this morning. Explained that I had to write X next to the people and picture I liked the best, etc., and then I put my X next to the pretty picture of a bird. Cue instant protest: “NO I want to choose a better one.” Oops.
    >
    > #votesat2

    Smart kid. I trust you listened.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited May 2019
    Been driving around a lot of the Burbs - Oxhey, Berkhamsted, St A for an example in recent days and I can't remember signs for anyone other than the yellow (orange as it happens) peril...

    I'm expecting them to do far better on the upside....
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    > @nico67 said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > Weren’t we expecting a poll from Ipsos Mori ?
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > I thought that was going to be out in the morning .
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1131515877516554245
    >
    > Thanks Mike .
    >
    > Yesssss! Lib Dems ahead of Labour .
    >
    > If the result is close to that I dare Corbyn and co to spin that as wanting to get on with Brexit!

    Lib Dems simply have to finish above Labour if they are to take the Brexit policy high ground. Should be close.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,712
    isam said:

    ah009 said:

    > @isam said:

    > Farage obviously meant that there had been some kind of "revolution" won at the ballot box rather than through armed struggle. He apologised for the comment about ten minutes later



    He still made the comment. No apology can ever unmake it. It was a glimpse into his lack of concern for what had happened. But to me it wasn't a surprise. He's clearly a person whose ideological stance is more important than his humanity. He's not alone in that, but people like him are dangerous. Very dangerous.

    At least we aren't into very VERY dangerous territory :D
    Cynics might notice how frequently Nige says something controversial, and then rapidly apologises. It's almost as if he does it on purpose, to attract those lovely people who agree with his first statement, and to allow his defenders to say: "Ah, but he apologised/clarified..."
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    Fckng hell, you just can't get the top quality silver bullets & sharpened stakes nowadays.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131516257138876421
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,869
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1131514610467651586


    I seem to recall that he has done the dead woman walking meme before.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    > @nunuone said:
    > > @Sean_F said:
    > > I voted Conservative.
    >
    > Why?

    I guess somebody had to?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Did Survation really imply a 73% turnout?!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > Did Survation really imply a 73% turnout?!

    I'm struggling to believe my 60-69 lay will lose due to HIGH turnout.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2019



    isam said:

    ah009 said:

    > @isam said:

    > Farage obviously meant that there had been some kind of "revolution" won at the ballot box rather than through armed struggle. He apologised for the comment about ten minutes later



    He still made the comment. No apology can ever unmake it. It was a glimpse into his lack of concern for what had happened. But to me it wasn't a surprise. He's clearly a person whose ideological stance is more important than his humanity. He's not alone in that, but people like him are dangerous. Very dangerous.

    At least we aren't into very VERY dangerous territory :D
    Cynics might notice how frequently Nige says something controversial, and then rapidly apologises. It's almost as if he does it on purpose, to attract those lovely people who agree with his first statement, and to allow his defenders to say: "Ah, but he apologised/clarified..."
    In this case it was after Leave had just won the referendum and shortly before he resigned, so cynics would be barking up the wrong tree... 😊
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    Turnout up in India: 67.1% compared with 66.0% in 2014.
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
    > Been driving around a lot of the Burbs - Oxhey, Berkhamsted, St A for an example in recent days and I can't remember signs for anyone other than the yellow (orange as it happens) peril...
    >
    > I'm expecting them to do far better on the upside....

    It started before the council elections. SE England, NW England too. Lib Dem garden boards up all over. One or two Greens. A large Tory poster in a field, and some "Let's Go WTO" nonsense next to the M40. If residential boards were votes, this would be a Lib Dem landslide.
    Usual SNP stuff in Scotland, but I've not spent much time there recently and there were no council elections this month.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    These 'belief is all you need' types scare me.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    > @TheWhiteRabbit said:

    > Did Survation really imply a 73% turnout?!



    I'm struggling to believe my 60-69 lay will lose due to HIGH turnout.

    If turnout is over 70% then I'd probably lose my Brexit part bet on the downside.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1131520678820233217

    The PM trying to keep Graham Brady away at all costs ?!?
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1131520678820233217

    Squatter found in Downing Street.
    Just a joke, hoping nothing really bad is going on.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    JackW said:

    Whilst members of the PB Brains Trust is in session might I asked this august body if any luminary has views/ownership of the BMW i3 ?



    Mrs JackW sniffing the market.



    Thank you.

    Pricey for what they are and slower than skateboarding (if that's a factor). Hyundai Kona Electric is much better value and probably screwed together better. However if you want that Bayerische Motoren Werke badge...

    My local BMW dealer always has at least 3-4 that are less than a year old in stock which suggests people get sick of them pretty quickly. I had one as a courtesy car and couldn't get more than 90mph out despite matting it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    > @ah009 said:
    > > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
    > > Been driving around a lot of the Burbs - Oxhey, Berkhamsted, St A for an example in recent days and I can't remember signs for anyone other than the yellow (orange as it happens) peril...
    > >
    > > I'm expecting them to do far better on the upside....
    >
    > It started before the council elections. SE England, NW England too. Lib Dem garden boards up all over. One or two Greens. A large Tory poster in a field, and some "Let's Go WTO" nonsense next to the M40. If residential boards were votes, this would be a Lib Dem landslide.
    > Usual SNP stuff in Scotland, but I've not spent much time there recently and there were no council elections this month.

    On the other hand it seems the LibDems have struggled to do a freepost in some areas?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Interesting in the Ipsos Mori .

    In the headline figure they just include those definite to vote 10/10.

    If they include all who expressed an opinion the BP lead drops to 9 points .

    The BP then on 29 v Lib Dems 20.

    The one caveat with this poll , there could be an element of the shy vote .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1131520678820233217

    Talking the PM down off a high building?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    > @kle4 said:
    > Poor little Tinkerbell
    >
    > https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1131454761516056576
    >
    >
    >
    > These 'belief is all you need' types scare me.

    Belief is not all you need. But nothing works without belief. Even AA didn't work until they added it.

    Just because it is not sufficient does not mean it is not necessary.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    > @Alistair said:
    > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    >
    > > Did Survation really imply a 73% turnout?!
    >
    >
    >
    > I'm struggling to believe my 60-69 lay will lose due to HIGH turnout.
    >
    > If turnout is over 70% then I'd probably lose my Brexit part bet on the downside.

    If turnover is over 70% we all have bigger problems as the end of the world has happened.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > Fckng hell, you just can't get the top quality silver bullets & sharpened stakes nowadays.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131516257138876421

    Who's going to take the temp jobs, if it buggers their chances with the new PM?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    > @Tissue_Price said:

    > Re the odd prices on TM's exit, I think this tweet explains them - but I think people are still getting it wrong (note the quoted tweet just requires an intention to step aside).

    >





    The way I see it, TM is likely to remain as Tory leader and as PM until the votes are counted in the Tory leadership election.
    Given they cannot agree who might fill in that makes sense, but they keep saying she needs to resign now so I dont believe they wont flip out if she says on Friday she will stay.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1131520678820233217


    Perhaps May called something in herself so that she wouldn't have to meet any more of her cabinet?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    > @ah009 said:

    > Jeremy unt:

    > "Theresa May will be prime minister to welcome [Trump] and rightly so."

    >

    > Maybe nobody wants to be left looking after the baby. Perhaps Leadsom should do it?



    After all, she is a mother!

    Boris would love to do it.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    These 'belief is all you need' types scare me.
    Given the lack of coherent answers to difficult questions from Brexit-types, its fairly rational to conclude that it has the characteristics of a religion.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821


    Who's going to take the temp jobs, if it buggers their chances with the new PM?

    Someone who has no chance with any new PM, but wants a ringside seat in the meantime?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1131520678820233217
    >
    > Talking the PM down off a high building?
    >
    >

    What a waste, it took all of yesterday to talk her up there
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    > @nico67 said:
    > Interesting in the Ipsos Mori .
    >
    > In the headline figure they just include those definite to vote 10/10.
    >
    > If they include all who expressed an opinion the BP lead drops to 9 points .
    >
    > The BP then on 29 v Lib Dems 20.
    >
    > The one caveat with this poll , there could be an element of the shy vote .

    Re the shy vote, was it a phone poll?
This discussion has been closed.