Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Euro election day it looks as though it is all over for the

12467

Comments

  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227
    HYUFD said:

    > @Pulpstar said:

    > > @Cyclefree said:

    > > The 4th Tory leader destroyed by the European question.

    > >

    > > Who will the 5th one be?

    >

    > Boris is the hot favorite right now for that, and destroyed he will be if he gets the crown.



    Maybe, maybe not but only after destroying Corbyn first

    You wish.

    The fundamentals - that Britain has no idea about what its relationship with the EU should be - has not been resolved. It is this failure which lies at the heart of the Tory party’s agonies and the agonies of whichever leader it has at the time.

    Had Britain used the lead up the referendum or even the three years since trying to address this issue sensibly and in a grown up manner we would likely not be in the mess we are today. As it is the time has been wasted and so the agony will continue.
  • Options
    ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @Ishmael_Z said:
    > > @Dura_Ace said:
    > > What happened to the country that put on the Olympics in 2012.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > The country's moral, cultural and political decline since then has been precipitous. We only need economic decline to get the full nap hand.
    >
    > And the Queen's body double who parachuted in to the stadium is sadly no longer with us.

    Nor is the NHS
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,029
    Ishmael_Z said:

    > @Dura_Ace said:

    > What happened to the country that put on the Olympics in 2012.

    >

    >

    >

    > The country's moral, cultural and political decline since then has been precipitous. We only need economic decline to get the full nap hand.



    And the Queen's body double who parachuted in to the stadium is sadly no longer with us.

    Widdecombe stands ready to serve the nation. She could pass for Brenda hurling herself out of an AW-189. I'll volunteer to pack her parachute.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,261
    > @kle4 said:
    > Brexit is morning dew on a crisp spring day. Brexit is the laughter of children. It's the smell of roast dinner at Christmas. The warmth of a summers day.
    >
    > And so on

    I initially read that as the slaughter of children..
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > Some observations:
    >
    > 1. The European election ballot paper is HUGE.
    >
    > 2. There is a massive amount of space to write in a screed if you so choose BUT if planning to do so, take a pencil sharpener - I discovered the little stubbies in the polling booth blunt quite quickly.
    >
    > 3. "Voted" at the same time as in the locals. Polling at the same point in the locals was about 3 times heavier in the same polling station.
    >
    > 4. There were three independents. I mean, why???

    Which region were you voting in?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    > @rottenborough said:
    > Leadsom now 3rd fav on BF.
    >
    > Dark horse folks.

    Certainly plenty of money to be made laying obvious turkeys.

    If Raab can get some serious henchpersons backing him then I think he could maybe see off Boris. From zero to hero with the blue rinsers - like a Malfoy version of Cameron.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    > @rottenborough said:
    > > @rottenborough said:

    > Early days of course, and first TV debate yet to happen.
    >
    > But I think we will be saying before too long that this is clearly Biden's to lose.

    Biden would lose to Trump though - surely ? He's Hilary with bigger feet.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,871
    edited May 2019
    > @TGOHF said:
    > > @rottenborough said:
    > > Leadsom now 3rd fav on BF.
    > >
    > > Dark horse folks.
    >
    > Certainly plenty of money to be made laying obvious turkeys.
    >
    > If Raab can get some serious henchpersons backing him then I think he could maybe see off Boris. From zero to hero with the blue rinsers - like a Malfoy version of Cameron.
    >
    >
    >
    >

    Does she beat everyone bar Boris in the members vote?
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > Some observations:
    >
    > 1. The European election ballot paper is HUGE.
    >
    > 2. There is a massive amount of space to write in a screed if you so choose BUT if planning to do so, take a pencil sharpener - I discovered the little stubbies in the polling booth blunt quite quickly.
    >
    > 3. "Voted" at the same time as in the locals. Polling at the same point in the locals was about 3 times heavier in the same polling station.
    >
    > 4. There were three independents. I mean, why???

    In London there must have been at least 8 Independents, with the parties at the top and the individuals at the bottom I'm sure a few will fall foul of selecting one of each. Polling station very quiet in Bromley commuter belt but I suspect most London workers will vote at the end of the day.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    > @rottenborough said:
    > But I think we will be saying before too long that this is clearly Biden's to lose.

    I think we can say that already.

    However, he has spent many years in democratic presidential primary politics honing his losing skills.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446
    kle4 said:

    eristdoof said:

    > @HYUFD said:

    > The UN General Assembly votes by 116 votes to 6 that the UK should hand back the Chagoa Islands to Mauritius despite the UK's insistence they will only be handed back once they have ceased use as a defence base.

    >

    > Only the USA, Israel, Australia, the Maldives and Hungary voted with the UK with France and Germany abstaining

    >

    > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48371388



    Look a squirrel!

    Guess we know who our closest allies are. Do the Maldives just dislike Mauritius?
    Well, the Chagos are part of the same island chain stretching all the way from India's Lakshadweep. But I'm not aware of any Maldivian territorial claim.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,261
    edited May 2019
    > @Nigelb said:
    > On topic, Mike, I’m not sure that her “only crime” was trying to implement the referendum result. She committed multiple “crimes” (odd word) in *how* she worked. For example, trying to play the referendum result for narrow partisan gain.
    >
    >
    >
    > Rarely have we witnessed a leader who so obviously lacked any kind of recognised leadership qualities. Simply painful to watch.
    >
    > Crime doesn’t really come in to it.
    > Attlee’s ‘just not up to it’ is a fairer summary.


    And then the retrospective question is, who would have been up to it? Even with the blessed clarity of hindsight, I still (out of the available candidates) can't think of an author of a better outcome.
  • Options
    ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @Freggles said:
    > Ended up voting Green. A Remainer at heart, I would be content with any deal keeping us in the economic orbit of the EU (not selling us off to the USA) but the only parties advocating that are either under investigation for antisemitism or Tories. Voted Green to help them keep their deposit in the North East and hopefully finish ahead of the Tories nationally.

    This is a weird election
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    > @rottenborough said:
    > New Florida poll has Biden 39, Sanders 12, Warren 12, Buttigieg 9, Harris 7....
    >
    >
    >
    > I think we might get to find out if Mike is right about Biden being too old for the job.
    >
    > Even if he is too old and has problems, even has to hand over after two years to his Veep - how can it be worse than Trump's chaos?
    >
    > I think I've said before it seems from a distance that Dems care more about winning than anything this time: and winning means Biden.

    Make Michelle Obama his Veep..... Overcomes that worry.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    > @Brom said:
    > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > Some observations:
    > >
    > > 1. The European election ballot paper is HUGE.
    > >
    > > 2. There is a massive amount of space to write in a screed if you so choose BUT if planning to do so, take a pencil sharpener - I discovered the little stubbies in the polling booth blunt quite quickly.
    > >
    > > 3. "Voted" at the same time as in the locals. Polling at the same point in the locals was about 3 times heavier in the same polling station.
    > >
    > > 4. There were three independents. I mean, why???
    >
    > In London there must have been at least 8 Independents, with the parties at the top and the individuals at the bottom I'm sure a few will fall foul of selecting one of each. Polling station very quiet in Bromley commuter belt but I suspect most London workers will vote at the end of the day.

    For some bizarre reason, the climate change independents in London decided to stand individually rather than as a group. It means they've probably lost £35,000 in deposits instead of £5,000. It also resulted in the ballot paper being much longer than it needed to be.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > Some observations:
    > >
    > > 1. The European election ballot paper is HUGE.
    > >
    > > 2. There is a massive amount of space to write in a screed if you so choose BUT if planning to do so, take a pencil sharpener - I discovered the little stubbies in the polling booth blunt quite quickly.
    > >
    > > 3. "Voted" at the same time as in the locals. Polling at the same point in the locals was about 3 times heavier in the same polling station.
    > >
    > > 4. There were three independents. I mean, why???
    >
    > Which region were you voting in?

    SW.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,796
    Dura_Ace said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    > @Dura_Ace said:

    > What happened to the country that put on the Olympics in 2012.

    >

    >

    >

    > The country's moral, cultural and political decline since then has been precipitous. We only need economic decline to get the full nap hand.



    And the Queen's body double who parachuted in to the stadium is sadly no longer with us.

    Widdecombe stands ready to serve the nation. She could pass for Brenda hurling herself out of an AW-189. I'll volunteer to pack her parachute.
    Very noble of you... no mistakes now!
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > @TGOHF said:
    > > > @rottenborough said:
    > > > Leadsom now 3rd fav on BF.
    > > >
    > > > Dark horse folks.
    > >
    > > Certainly plenty of money to be made laying obvious turkeys.
    > >
    > > If Raab can get some serious henchpersons backing him then I think he could maybe see off Boris. From zero to hero with the blue rinsers - like a Malfoy version of Cameron.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    >
    > Does she beat everyone bar Boris in the members vote?
    >

    No idea - but I would think that any chance she has will be diminished by the campaign.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    > @ah009 said:
    > > @Ishmael_Z said:
    > > > @Dura_Ace said:
    > > > What happened to the country that put on the Olympics in 2012.
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > The country's moral, cultural and political decline since then has been precipitous. We only need economic decline to get the full nap hand.
    > >
    > > And the Queen's body double who parachuted in to the stadium is sadly no longer with us.
    >
    > Nor is the NHS

    Where did it go?
  • Options
    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,000
    Regarding the Welsh poll, Roger Scully has predicted seats as follows for the Welsh Assembly:

    Labour: 20 seats (19 constituency, 1 regional)
    Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (12 constituency, 1 regional)
    Brexit Party: 13 seats (13 regional)
    Conservatives: 7 seats (7 constituency)
    Greens: 5 seats (5 regional)
    Liberal Democrats: 2 seat (2 constituency)

    So probably a Labour-Plaid coalition as Plaid unlikely to work with the Brexit party
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @Brom said:
    > > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > > Some observations:
    > > >
    > > > 1. The European election ballot paper is HUGE.
    > > >
    > > > 2. There is a massive amount of space to write in a screed if you so choose BUT if planning to do so, take a pencil sharpener - I discovered the little stubbies in the polling booth blunt quite quickly.
    > > >
    > > > 3. "Voted" at the same time as in the locals. Polling at the same point in the locals was about 3 times heavier in the same polling station.
    > > >
    > > > 4. There were three independents. I mean, why???
    > >
    > > In London there must have been at least 8 Independents, with the parties at the top and the individuals at the bottom I'm sure a few will fall foul of selecting one of each. Polling station very quiet in Bromley commuter belt but I suspect most London workers will vote at the end of the day.
    >
    > For some bizarre reason, the climate change independents in London decided to stand individually rather than as a group. It means they've probably lost £35,000 in deposits instead of £5,000. It also resulted in the ballot paper being much longer than it needed to be.

    Quite the oversight
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,337
    Why I should vote Labour:
    Party member for 24 years
    Past and future office holder in the party
    Our MEPs in the North East are great
    I know what its like to be a losing candidate
    Polls suggest only Labour can stop the Brexit loons in the NE

    Why I should vote LD/Green/CHUK:
    Our "position" on Brexit is a disgrace
    Tough on Jezbollah, Tough on the Causes of Jezbollah
    Rewarding Con/Lab for their performance recently is only to delay the restructure to the political landscape which is already underway
    Shits and Giggles

    Not voting is not an option. People died to protect my right to vote, so I vote. Ordinarily its simple - I vote Labour.

    This time - do I have to...?
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @Brom said:
    > > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > > > @isam said:
    > > > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1131467640353038337
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > If he doesn’t get a snap of himself buying one, that’s a fail
    > > >
    > > > Did you not read the sign? They're free!
    > > >
    > > > But yes, he should get one.
    > >
    > > OGH is right. It is irresponsible, and it is a pound to a penny someone chucks one over the hander-outer if she is not careful, as well as over any passing former metals traders. But more likely she was there for 10 minutes for press photos and then went back to her day job as a high court judge or some such.
    >
    > Hard to say, she could be some kind of events girl paid £10 an hour to do some guerilla advertising for some rank health drink that is struggling to get any attention in an over saturated market.

    Quite likely. The * in m*lk suggests it is one of those nut-based milk substitutes that cannot call themselves milk.
  • Options
    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    When Mrs May resigns the headlines should read “the saboteur is crushed”
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    > @RochdalePioneers said:
    > Why I should vote Labour:
    > Party member for 24 years
    > Past and future office holder in the party
    > Our MEPs in the North East are great
    > I know what its like to be a losing candidate
    > Polls suggest only Labour can stop the Brexit loons in the NE
    >
    > Why I should vote LD/Green/CHUK:
    > Our "position" on Brexit is a disgrace
    > Tough on Jezbollah, Tough on the Causes of Jezbollah
    > Rewarding Con/Lab for their performance recently is only to delay the restructure to the political landscape which is already underway
    > Shits and Giggles
    >
    > Not voting is not an option. People died to protect my right to vote, so I vote. Ordinarily its simple - I vote Labour.
    >
    > This time - do I have to...?

    I would want to punish the anti semitism - they would love to see people holding their noses and voting for them anyway.

    n fact, they are relying on it.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,058
    Well, we've voted. Very quiet. Think a lady who came in just after us put a blank form into the box.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > @Nigelb said:
    > > On topic, Mike, I’m not sure that her “only crime” was trying to implement the referendum result. She committed multiple “crimes” (odd word) in *how* she worked. For example, trying to play the referendum result for narrow partisan gain.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Rarely have we witnessed a leader who so obviously lacked any kind of recognised leadership qualities. Simply painful to watch.
    > >
    > > Crime doesn’t really come in to it.
    > > Attlee’s ‘just not up to it’ is a fairer summary.
    >
    >
    > And then the retrospective question is, who would have been up to it? Even with the blessed clarity of hindsight, I still (out of the available candidates) can't think of an author of a better outcome.

    Anyone prepared to talk to the opposition at the start of the process.
    With the benefit of hindsight, I suspect even Leadsom, much as I don't like her, would have been better in this respect.
  • Options
    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited May 2019
    I've voted LibDem.

    Turnout? Interesting. Polling officers were preparing for 60% turnout. They told me they don't think it's that high but that it 'is comparable to a normal local election.' I asked, 'so higher than other European polls?' 'Yes.'

    If that's true we must be looking at over 40% and probably pushing 50%?
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    > @RochdalePioneers said:
    > Why I should vote Labour:
    > Party member for 24 years
    > Past and future office holder in the party
    > Our MEPs in the North East are great
    > I know what its like to be a losing candidate
    > Polls suggest only Labour can stop the Brexit loons in the NE
    >
    > Why I should vote LD/Green/CHUK:
    > Our "position" on Brexit is a disgrace
    > Tough on Jezbollah, Tough on the Causes of Jezbollah
    > Rewarding Con/Lab for their performance recently is only to delay the restructure to the political landscape which is already underway
    > Shits and Giggles
    >
    > Not voting is not an option. People died to protect my right to vote, so I vote. Ordinarily its simple - I vote Labour.
    >
    > This time - do I have to...?

    If you don't, I would advise against posting about it here.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,897
    edited May 2019
    > @Foxy said:
    > The biggesst 'crime' Mrs May has committed is leaving us with a choice of Johnson Gove and Leadsom as her successor.
    >
    > I wouldn't regard political mistakes as crimes. Perhaps that description is best reserved for deporting British citizens of the Windrush generation. A crime that she threw her oldest political ally under the wheels of a bus for.
    >
    > I have no sympathy for May and her forthcoming humiliation. She brought it on herself, hubris followed by nemesis.

    You know the old Spanish saying that if you sit by the river long enough the body of your enemy will come floating by.....just look at George Osborne's Cheshire cat grin this morning
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    Any other 8/1 😳


  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    > @GarethoftheVale2 said:
    > Regarding the Welsh poll, Roger Scully has predicted seats as follows for the Welsh Assembly:
    >
    > Labour: 20 seats (19 constituency, 1 regional)
    > Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (12 constituency, 1 regional)
    > Brexit Party: 13 seats (13 regional)
    > Conservatives: 7 seats (7 constituency)
    > Greens: 5 seats (5 regional)
    > Liberal Democrats: 2 seat (2 constituency)
    >
    > So probably a Labour-Plaid coalition as Plaid unlikely to work with the Brexit party

    Bloody hell so even topping the poll Brexit party win precisely 0 constituency seats o_O ?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Big obituary for Terry Adams in today's Times. He was a bear of a man from the Valleys, a former BP executive who did a massive deal to unlock Azerbaijan. He once sent me to Paris to the International Energy Agency, to give a speech on his behalf when he couldn't get out of a board meeting about a company take-over. He was their key-note speaker at a time of high volatility in oil prices. Everyone wanted to know his views on where oil prices were headed. He said he'd send me his speech by the time I got to my hotel.

    When I opened up the file, I read through it. In the section on oil prices he put two words:

    "Say something."

    RIP Terry. You bugger.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Mysticrose said:
    > I've voted LibDem.
    >
    > Turnout? Interesting. Polling officers were preparing for 60% turnout. They told me they don't think it's that high but that it 'is comparable to a normal local election.' I asked, 'so higher than other European polls?' 'Yes.'
    >
    > If that's true we must be looking at over 40% and probably pushing 50%?

    My prediction yesterday was 45%. The highest Euro turnout was 38.5% in 1994.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @williamglenn said:
    > https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1131466261165203456?s=21

    Worth remembering the tribal Labour, pro-Brexit, anti-Corbyn voters the next time we're confused by subsamples.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    > @OldKingCole said:
    > Well, we've voted. Very quiet. Think a lady who came in just after us put a blank form into the box.

    You're in a brexitty area, right?
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    > @isam said:
    > Any other 8/1 😳

    I would say it was at least a 2% chance that the Tories will split and that a Tory faction wins most seats, so there's that.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > > @GarethoftheVale2 said:
    > > Regarding the Welsh poll, Roger Scully has predicted seats as follows for the Welsh Assembly:
    > >
    > > Labour: 20 seats (19 constituency, 1 regional)
    > > Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (12 constituency, 1 regional)
    > > Brexit Party: 13 seats (13 regional)
    > > Conservatives: 7 seats (7 constituency)
    > > Greens: 5 seats (5 regional)
    > > Liberal Democrats: 2 seat (2 constituency)
    > >
    > > So probably a Labour-Plaid coalition as Plaid unlikely to work with the Brexit party
    >
    > Bloody hell so even topping the poll Brexit party win precisely 0 constituency seats o_O ?

    Daft voting system. STV much better.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @Brom said:
    > > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > > Some observations:
    > > >
    > > > 1. The European election ballot paper is HUGE.
    > > >
    > > > 2. There is a massive amount of space to write in a screed if you so choose BUT if planning to do so, take a pencil sharpener - I discovered the little stubbies in the polling booth blunt quite quickly.
    > > >
    > > > 3. "Voted" at the same time as in the locals. Polling at the same point in the locals was about 3 times heavier in the same polling station.
    > > >
    > > > 4. There were three independents. I mean, why???
    > >
    > > In London there must have been at least 8 Independents, with the parties at the top and the individuals at the bottom I'm sure a few will fall foul of selecting one of each. Polling station very quiet in Bromley commuter belt but I suspect most London workers will vote at the end of the day.
    >
    > For some bizarre reason, the climate change independents in London decided to stand individually rather than as a group. It means they've probably lost £35,000 in deposits instead of £5,000. It also resulted in the ballot paper being much longer than it needed to be.

    They would have had to agree a list, no?
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,871
    > @Nigelb said:
    > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > > @Nigelb said:
    > > > On topic, Mike, I’m not sure that her “only crime” was trying to implement the referendum result. She committed multiple “crimes” (odd word) in *how* she worked. For example, trying to play the referendum result for narrow partisan gain.
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Rarely have we witnessed a leader who so obviously lacked any kind of recognised leadership qualities. Simply painful to watch.
    > > >
    > > > Crime doesn’t really come in to it.
    > > > Attlee’s ‘just not up to it’ is a fairer summary.
    > >
    > >
    > > And then the retrospective question is, who would have been up to it? Even with the blessed clarity of hindsight, I still (out of the available candidates) can't think of an author of a better outcome.
    >
    > Anyone prepared to talk to the opposition at the start of the process.
    > With the benefit of hindsight, I suspect even Leadsom, much as I don't like her, would have been better in this respect.

    With the benefit of hindsight Leadsom or Gove PM with May as Brexit secretary would have been much better.
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,715
    Still not decided who to vote for. Only got a few hours now.

    I see it as possibly:

    1. The vote is an easy 'throw away vote' as it often is, and is used to send a message to the current governing party about how well they are doing in UK national terms.
    2. The vote has become a proxy on one specific issue, in this case Brexit and your support of either Remain, Deal or No Deal (voting LD/CUK/GRN; CON; UKIP/BXP as appropriate - I wouldn't consider Labour in this situation).
    3. The vote is for the election of your EU representative for the next five years to best reflect your views in the EU Parliament, possibly tempered by the fact it might only be five months. [1]

    Under (1), all I would know is NOT to vote Conservative - but not WHO to vote FOR.
    Under (2), I'd vote Conservative.
    Under (3), I'd vote Liberal Democrat

    I think this is going to be a last minute decision in the polling booth. I really just don't know.

    [1] We'll have none of that 'voting for the correct reason' rubbish on here thank you.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    > @Floater said:
    > > @RochdalePioneers said:
    > > Why I should vote Labour:
    > > Party member for 24 years
    > > Past and future office holder in the party
    > > Our MEPs in the North East are great
    > > I know what its like to be a losing candidate
    > > Polls suggest only Labour can stop the Brexit loons in the NE
    > >
    > > Why I should vote LD/Green/CHUK:
    > > Our "position" on Brexit is a disgrace
    > > Tough on Jezbollah, Tough on the Causes of Jezbollah
    > > Rewarding Con/Lab for their performance recently is only to delay the restructure to the political landscape which is already underway
    > > Shits and Giggles
    > >
    > > Not voting is not an option. People died to protect my right to vote, so I vote. Ordinarily its simple - I vote Labour.
    > >
    > > This time - do I have to...?
    >
    > I would want to punish the anti semitism - they would love to see people holding their noses and voting for them anyway.
    >
    > n fact, they are relying on it.

    Asking to vote for an anti-semitic leader atop an anti-semitic party is why it is going to prove really, really tricky to prise those who vote LibDem today back into the Labour column....
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited May 2019
    > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > @isam said:
    > > Any other 8/1 😳
    >
    > I would say it was at least a 2% chance that the Tories will split and that a Tory faction wins most seats, so there's that.

    If you were chairman of a local Con party looking to select a candidate - would you choose a remainer given the threat of a Brexit Party challenge ?

    Not a chance.

    Hezza, Ken, Soubry , Hammond - the wets are on the way out.
  • Options
    ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    First time in a long while where I've not voted at 7am.
    I stayed in bed still thinking over whom to vote for. In the end I got up and started walking to the polling station. It was only along the way that I decided.

    In the end, it was non-Brexit policy that swung it between two Anti-Brexit parties.

    And I wrote a three word essay about Farage over the Brexit Party's candidate list. The middle word was "off".
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,274
    > @Benpointer said:
    > https://twitter.com/montie/status/1131468046126714880
    >
    >
    >
    > ... says rich and powerful Tim Montgomerie.

    His position is simply bizarre and if he had credibility once it is utterly undermined by this twaddle. The Tories are too busy dealing with the Vulcan death grip being applied by Mrs May, but tbh Montgomerie is one suspended member I would not want to take back.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426
    Guardian note:

    "Usual request for an election day: if you are posting a comment below the line (BTL), please do not tell us how you voted. Under the Representation of the People Act 1983, it is an offence to publish, while the polls are still open, any information about how people have voted based on “information given by voters after they have voted”. This law is designed to stop on-day polling influencing the results, but the lawyers say it covers comments from individuals too, and so please desist."
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,058
    edited May 2019
    > @isam said:
    > Any other 8/1 😳

    The next time June 10th is on a Thursday is 2021. Is it really expected that this Parliament will stagger on that long?
    Surely someone will do a Cromwell;
    'It is high time for me to put an end to your sitting in this place, which you have dishonored by your contempt of all virtue, and defiled by your practice of every vice.
    Ye are a factious crew, and enemies to all good government.
    Ye are a pack of mercenary wretches, and would like Esau sell your country for a mess of pottage, and like Judas betray your God for a few pieces of money.
    Is there a single virtue now remaining amongst you? Is there one vice you do not possess?
    Ye have no more religion than my horse. Gold is your God. Which of you have not bartered your conscience for bribes? Is there a man amongst you that has the least care for the good of the Commonwealth?
    Ye sordid prostitutes have you not defiled this sacred place, and turned the Lord's temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral principles and wicked practices?
    Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation. You were deputed here by the people to get grievances redressed, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
    Your country therefore calls upon me to cleanse this Augean stable, by putting a final period to your iniquitous proceedings in this House; and which by God's help, and the strength he has given me, I am now come to do.
    I command ye therefore, upon the peril of your lives, to depart immediately out of this place.
    Go, get you out! Make haste! Ye venal slaves be gone! So! Take away that shining bauble there, and lock up the doors.
    In the name of God, go!'
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,261
    edited May 2019
    > @Nigelb said:
    > Anyone prepared to talk to the opposition at the start of the process.
    > With the benefit of hindsight, I suspect even Leadsom, much as I don't like her, would have been better in this respect.


    Maybe, but I suspect Leadsom's Brexit red lines would have been firmer than May's, and in any case would Labour have been any more sincere about a negotiated solution than they are now?

    Considering Leadsom as the least or less bad option makes me dizzy.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,166
    > @williamglenn said:
    > https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1131466261165203456?s=21

    So he voted for a party that only has one policy, which he disagrees with. He has turned pathological hatred of Labour into performance art.
    Having said all that, I voted for a party other than Labour for the first time today, albeit more in sorrow than in anger. Polling Station in South London Remainia had a steady flow of voters at 7.30.
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,715
    Also, and on the mention of someone earlier saying they were voting for an independent, how do we treat them/other parties in the case of us deciding to allocate votes on a proxy Brexit vote?

    The main parties:
    UKIP/BXP - No Deal leavers
    CON - Deal leavers
    LD/GRN/SNP/CUK - Revoke and remain

    Labour - ?

    In the North West we also have UKEUP (United Kingdom European Union Party) which I suspect can be added to the Revoke and Remain column. We also have the lovely Tommy Robinson, which I suspect can be added to the No Deal column. We have a the English Democrats - no idea? No Deal leavers presumably? And finally an independent called Mohammad Aslam, of which I can find NOTHING out about (he doesn't even have a webpage).
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,368
    > @RochdalePioneers said:
    > Why I should vote Labour:
    > Party member for 24 years
    > Past and future office holder in the party
    > Our MEPs in the North East are great
    > I know what its like to be a losing candidate
    > Polls suggest only Labour can stop the Brexit loons in the NE
    >
    > Why I should vote LD/Green/CHUK:
    > Our "position" on Brexit is a disgrace
    > Tough on Jezbollah, Tough on the Causes of Jezbollah
    > Rewarding Con/Lab for their performance recently is only to delay the restructure to the political landscape which is already underway
    > Shits and Giggles
    >
    > Not voting is not an option. People died to protect my right to vote, so I vote. Ordinarily its simple - I vote Labour.
    >
    > This time - do I have to...?

    I think so! In the end you're otherwise voting Brexit Party at one remove in the NE - and more generally, splinterinmg the opposition will harm both the partty and the country. We need a reasonably cohesive alternative to the Tory shambles, noit spending the next 2 years fighting the LSs and ChUK.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227
    Youngest son finishes his finals today. Only just 21 and has already completed his degree. I will remind him to vote before he goes off to celebrate.

    Husband, son and daughter off to vote Lib Dem. I have already voted.

    I disagree with @NickPalmer that they are not a serious party. They have been quiescent but if they do well it will be in party because of Labour’s failings.

    Labour will become a serious party when they get rid of the Marxist anti-semitic cabal in charge and actually come to a definitive view on one of the serious questions of the day.

    The Tories are a complete shower.
  • Options
    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,000
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > > @GarethoftheVale2 said:
    > > Regarding the Welsh poll, Roger Scully has predicted seats as follows for the Welsh Assembly:
    > >
    > > Labour: 20 seats (19 constituency, 1 regional)
    > > Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (12 constituency, 1 regional)
    > > Brexit Party: 13 seats (13 regional)
    > > Conservatives: 7 seats (7 constituency)
    > > Greens: 5 seats (5 regional)
    > > Liberal Democrats: 2 seat (2 constituency)
    > >
    > > So probably a Labour-Plaid coalition as Plaid unlikely to work with the Brexit party
    >
    > Bloody hell so even topping the poll Brexit party win precisely 0 constituency seats o_O ?

    YouGov ask about Constituency and list vote separately. Brexit Party are on 23% for the list but only 17% for the constituency (presumably as they are seen as less able to win constituencies)
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    > @OnlyLivingBoy said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    > > https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1131466261165203456?s=21
    >
    > So he voted for a party that only has one policy, which he disagrees with. He has turned pathological hatred of Labour into performance art.
    > Having said all that, I voted for a party other than Labour for the first time today, albeit more in sorrow than in anger. Polling Station in South London Remainia had a steady flow of voters at 7.30.

    Maybe he believes Gavin Esler would make a good MEP. I think it's going to be touch and go as to whether he's elected. ChangeUK will probably get around 6-7% in London which will be right on the threshold.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,337
    Regarding "you can't vote for anti-semitism", I was a Labour candidate on 2nd May and had no problem at all wearing the rosette. A vote for Labour is not a vote for anti-semitism.

    Jezbollah and his cult definitely has a loony fringe who are bonkers on the subject. But the vast majority of the party abhor all of that.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797

    Nigelb said:

    New Florida poll has Biden 39, Sanders 12, Warren 12, Buttigieg 9, Harris 7....



    I think we might get to find out if Mike is right about Biden being too old for the job.

    Even if he is too old and has problems, even has to hand over after two years to his Veep - how can it be worse than Trump's chaos?

    I think I've said before it seems from a distance that Dems care more about winning than anything this time: and winning means Biden.
    I'm pretty sure other candidates could win against Trump - but there's no doubting that perceptions very much in his favour.
    And yes, pretty well all of the Democratic candidates, even Saunders, would be a vast improvement on Trump.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
  • Options
    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    > @TGOHF said:

    > Hezza, Ken, Soubry , Hammond - the wets are on the way out.

    I really don't think any of those four fit the old description of the wets. Hezza may not be everyone's cup of tea but wet he certainly isn't. Ken Clarke is a big beast too. Soubry is an irascible sort who it pays not to get the wrong side of and Hammond may be a bit of an Eeyore but wet isn't really fitting. He's pretty determined.

    Clarke served as a Minister throughout the 18 year Conservative reign: with Maggie and Major. Chancellor of the Exchequer, Home Secretary, Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary, Education Secretary, Health Secretary and minister without portfolio. He's a Big Beast.

    This tragedy of the Tories ripping themselves apart has been on the cards for decades. All it took was the most ill-advised referendum in international history to set it off.


    But what you should remember is that 39% of Conservatives voted to Remain in the EU. 39%!!!! That's a huge constituency to cut off.

    This is all terribly reminiscent of Momentum's take over of Labour and I confidently predict that after the next election it will leave the Conservatives out of power for a generation.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,020
    > @RochdalePioneers said:
    > Why I should vote Labour:
    > Party member for 24 years
    > Past and future office holder in the party
    > Our MEPs in the North East are great
    > I know what its like to be a losing candidate
    > Polls suggest only Labour can stop the Brexit loons in the NE
    >
    > Why I should vote LD/Green/CHUK:
    > Our "position" on Brexit is a disgrace
    > Tough on Jezbollah, Tough on the Causes of Jezbollah
    > Rewarding Con/Lab for their performance recently is only to delay the restructure to the political landscape which is already underway
    > Shits and Giggles
    >
    > Not voting is not an option. People died to protect my right to vote, so I vote. Ordinarily its simple - I vote Labour.
    >
    > This time - do I have to...?

    My viewpoint as I voted a fortnight ago was I voted Labour rather than Lib Dem to try to ensure Labour had a chance of keeping 2 seats with Nigel getting one (remember it's only 3 seats so you need 24% of the vote to win a seat).

    I'm not so sure it may be that voting Lib Dem will achieve something or it may be utterly pointless..
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > > @RochdalePioneers said:
    > > Why I should vote Labour:
    > > Party member for 24 years
    > > Past and future office holder in the party
    > > Our MEPs in the North East are great
    > > I know what its like to be a losing candidate
    > > Polls suggest only Labour can stop the Brexit loons in the NE
    > >
    > > Why I should vote LD/Green/CHUK:
    > > Our "position" on Brexit is a disgrace
    > > Tough on Jezbollah, Tough on the Causes of Jezbollah
    > > Rewarding Con/Lab for their performance recently is only to delay the restructure to the political landscape which is already underway
    > > Shits and Giggles
    > >
    > > Not voting is not an option. People died to protect my right to vote, so I vote. Ordinarily its simple - I vote Labour.
    > >
    > > This time - do I have to...?
    >
    > I think so! In the end you're otherwise voting Brexit Party at one remove in the NE - and more generally, splinterinmg the opposition will harm both the partty and the country. We need a reasonably cohesive alternative to the Tory shambles, noit spending the next 2 years fighting the LSs and ChUK.

    So stop fighting the LibDems and vote for them. :smile:
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    > @RochdalePioneers said:
    > Regarding "you can't vote for anti-semitism", I was a Labour candidate on 2nd May and had no problem at all wearing the rosette. A vote for Labour is not a vote for anti-semitism.
    >
    > Jezbollah and his cult definitely has a loony fringe who are bonkers on the subject. But the vast majority of the party abhor all of that.

    Not enough to chuck it out....
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Advice: I wouldn't spoil a ballot paper by leaving it entirely blank, just in case someone tries to write something on it at a later stage. I'd vote for all the candidates.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    > @RochdalePioneers said:
    > Regarding "you can't vote for anti-semitism", I was a Labour candidate on 2nd May and had no problem at all wearing the rosette. A vote for Labour is not a vote for anti-semitism.
    >
    > Jezbollah and his cult definitely has a loony fringe who are bonkers on the subject. But the vast majority of the party abhor all of that.

    Yet they control the party don't they.

    Or else why do the vast majority tolerate the marxist anti semitic rabble?
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,324
    Scott_P said:
    Have we just witnessed erroneous 'Theresa will be gone by the weekend' number 5672? I'm really starting to believe she's politically immortal.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,337
    > @Freggles said:

    > If you don't, I would advise against posting about it here.

    I know. And I won't. You can all speculate away as to how I eventually vote and who I am in the real world.

    It is a dilemma though. We lost on the 2nd because of Labour's fence sitting on Brexit. Now they want me to endorse said fence sitting.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,020
    > @Stark_Dawning said:
    > https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1131486899196125184
    >
    >
    >
    > Have we just witnessed erroneous 'Theresa will be gone by the weekend' number 5672? I'm really starting to believe she's politically immortal.

    Anyone in cabinet asked that question is hardly going to say anything different.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    > @eek said:
    > > @RochdalePioneers said:
    > > Why I should vote Labour:
    > > Party member for 24 years
    > > Past and future office holder in the party
    > > Our MEPs in the North East are great
    > > I know what its like to be a losing candidate
    > > Polls suggest only Labour can stop the Brexit loons in the NE
    > >
    > > Why I should vote LD/Green/CHUK:
    > > Our "position" on Brexit is a disgrace
    > > Tough on Jezbollah, Tough on the Causes of Jezbollah
    > > Rewarding Con/Lab for their performance recently is only to delay the restructure to the political landscape which is already underway
    > > Shits and Giggles
    > >
    > > Not voting is not an option. People died to protect my right to vote, so I vote. Ordinarily its simple - I vote Labour.
    > >
    > > This time - do I have to...?
    >
    > My viewpoint as I voted a fortnight ago was I voted Labour rather than Lib Dem to try to ensure Labour had a chance of keeping 2 seats with Nigel getting one (remember it's only 3 seats so you need 24% of the vote to win a seat).
    >
    > I'm not so sure it may be that voting Lib Dem will achieve something or it may be utterly pointless..

    The North East as a region is too small. I don't know why they didn't stick with the old "Northern region" which also included Cumbria. That would probably have been a 4 seat electoral division.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,505
    FWIW, turnout at my polling station in suburban GM is very high so far. Postal voting also very high. Difficult to tell whether it is the pro- or anti-Brexit camp which is most energised, though one fella did just vote with a copy of the Express under his arm.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227

    Regarding "you can't vote for anti-semitism", I was a Labour candidate on 2nd May and had no problem at all wearing the rosette. A vote for Labour is not a vote for anti-semitism.



    Jezbollah and his cult definitely has a loony fringe who are bonkers on the subject. But the vast majority of the party abhor all of that.

    I am afraid it is. The loony fringe are in charge and setting the tone. Voting for Labour is voting to turn a blind eye to the anti-semitism and indifference to it that has infested the Labour party.

    It is not enough not to be an anti-semite oneself. By doing nothing about those who are and those at the top who do little or nothing to get rid of it, one is enabling its spread and helping to normalise it in a way that we have not seen in Britain for a very long time.

    The majority of people who work in finance are not fraudsters but they shit created by those who are sticks to their shoes just as much. The bad smell hangs round them just as much. The same applies to your party.

    “For evil to flourish... etc....”
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,020
    > @RochdalePioneers said:
    > > @Freggles said:
    >
    > > If you don't, I would advise against posting about it here.
    >
    > I know. And I won't. You can all speculate away as to how I eventually vote and who I am in the real world.
    >
    > It is a dilemma though. We lost on the 2nd because of Labour's fence sitting on Brexit. Now they want me to endorse said fence sitting.
    >

    Not quite - Labour lost the Tees Valley councils because after 30 odd years people think it may be time to give someone else a go. And the Tees Valley mayor did deliver on the airport...
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Wife and sons aren't going to vote.

    Now, has anything happened in last 7 days to encourage me to vote tory?

    Well, that's a big fat no.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    > @Stark_Dawning said:
    >
    >
    >
    > Have we just witnessed erroneous 'Theresa will be gone by the weekend' number 5672? I'm really starting to believe she's politically immortal.

    I think she will stay on until the contest is over. She will be PM but not leader of the Con party.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @OnlyLivingBoy said:
    > > > @williamglenn said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1131466261165203456?s=21
    > >
    > > So he voted for a party that only has one policy, which he disagrees with. He has turned pathological hatred of Labour into performance art.
    > > Having said all that, I voted for a party other than Labour for the first time today, albeit more in sorrow than in anger. Polling Station in South London Remainia had a steady flow of voters at 7.30.
    >
    > Maybe he believes Gavin Esler would make a good MEP. I think it's going to be touch and go as to whether he's elected. ChangeUK will probably get around 6-7% in London which will be right on the threshold.

    In the end I only voted Tory because I respect Syed,

    I think it will be equally touch and go...
  • Options
    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I'm inclined to think Jeremy Hunt is correct. The results won't be out tonight so why should TM resign tomorrow? She may as well sit out half term. By then the Cricket World Cup and Trump's visit will be in play, so there will be distractions.

    I don't think it's impossible that she will bring the MV3 to the Commons. If she'd just had the gumption to take it to the people with alternatives (No Deal, Customs Union, Her Deal, Remain) she'd probably have got this through months ago.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,825

    > @RochdalePioneers said:

    > Why I should vote Labour:

    > Party member for 24 years

    > Past and future office holder in the party

    > Our MEPs in the North East are great

    > I know what its like to be a losing candidate

    > Polls suggest only Labour can stop the Brexit loons in the NE

    >

    > Why I should vote LD/Green/CHUK:

    > Our "position" on Brexit is a disgrace

    > Tough on Jezbollah, Tough on the Causes of Jezbollah

    > Rewarding Con/Lab for their performance recently is only to delay the restructure to the political landscape which is already underway

    > Shits and Giggles

    >

    > Not voting is not an option. People died to protect my right to vote, so I vote. Ordinarily its simple - I vote Labour.

    >

    > This time - do I have to...?



    I think so! In the end you're otherwise voting Brexit Party at one remove in the NE - and more generally, splinterinmg the opposition will harm both the partty and the country. We need a reasonably cohesive alternative to the Tory shambles, noit spending the next 2 years fighting the LSs and ChUK.

    An admirably attempt at"defending the indefensible", I salute your indefatiguability!

    Clinic quiet this AM. Presumably everyone in the massive voting queues...
  • Options
    ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @AndyJS said:
    > Advice: I wouldn't spoil a ballot paper by leaving it entirely blank, just in case someone tries to write something on it at a later stage. I'd vote for all the candidates.

    Why not vote for the least worst candidate and write a message? It'll be read, so your protest will be noted, but you still get to edge the political realm a little away from whatever you think it shouldn't be.

    Personally, I think expecting the perfect candidate or party is asking for the moon on a stick. Many people vote without being entirely happy with the recipient of their vote. You may bemoan the lack of options, but there is still some choice, some differentiation between the parties.

    It's not like getting married where you should probably only do it when you're sure. It's more like buying a brand of toothpaste. If you end up unhappy with your choice you can find something better next time around but for god's sake, you still need to brush your teeth!
  • Options
    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    And I also think she will hold out until her replacement takes over.
  • Options
    ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @ah009 said:
    but for god's sake, you still need to brush your teeth!

    (or you end up like Farage)
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > Regarding "you can't vote for anti-semitism", I was a Labour candidate on 2nd May and had no problem at all wearing the rosette. A vote for Labour is not a vote for anti-semitism.
    >
    >
    >
    > Jezbollah and his cult definitely has a loony fringe who are bonkers on the subject. But the vast majority of the party abhor all of that.
    >
    > I am afraid it is. The loony fringe are in charge and setting the tone. Voting for Labour is voting to turn a blind eye to the anti-semitism and indifference to it that has infested the Labour party.
    >
    > It is not enough not to be an anti-semite oneself. By doing nothing about those who are and those at the top who do little or nothing to get rid of it, one is enabling its spread and helping to normalise it in a way that we have not seen in Britain for a very long time.
    >
    > The majority of people who work in finance are not fraudsters but they shit created by those who are sticks to their shoes just as much. The bad smell hangs round them just as much. The same applies to your party.
    >
    > “For evil to flourish... etc....”

    Exactly
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    .

    > @Nigelb said:

    > Anyone prepared to talk to the opposition at the start of the process.

    > With the benefit of hindsight, I suspect even Leadsom, much as I don't like her, would have been better in this respect.





    Maybe, but I suspect Leadsom's Brexit red lines would have been firmer than May's, and in any case would Labour have been any more sincere about a negotiated solution than they are now?



    Considering Leadsom as the least or less bad option makes me dizzy.

    Me too.
    But that is where we are.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Cookie said:
    > FWIW, turnout at my polling station in suburban GM is very high so far. Postal voting also very high. Difficult to tell whether it is the pro- or anti-Brexit camp which is most energised, though one fella did just vote with a copy of the Express under his arm.

    Is this the Altrincham & Sale West constituency? Just a guess.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Re the odd prices on TM's exit, I think this tweet explains them - but I think people are still getting it wrong (note the quoted tweet just requires an intention to step aside).
    https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1131490327460761600
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @Mysticrose said:
    > I'm inclined to think Jeremy Hunt is correct. The results won't be out tonight so why should TM resign tomorrow? She may as well sit out half term. By then the Cricket World Cup and Trump's visit will be in play, so there will be distractions.
    >
    > I don't think it's impossible that she will bring the MV3 to the Commons. If she'd just had the gumption to take it to the people with alternatives (No Deal, Customs Union, Her Deal, Remain) she'd probably have got this through months ago.

    There will always be a reason not to resign right now: a new crisis; an important scheduled event. Either Theresa May will be forced out or she will linger forever.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @ah009 said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > Advice: I wouldn't spoil a ballot paper by leaving it entirely blank, just in case someone tries to write something on it at a later stage. I'd vote for all the candidates.
    >
    > Why not vote for the least worst candidate and write a message? It'll be read, so your protest will be noted, but you still get to edge the political realm a little away from whatever you think it shouldn't be.
    >
    > Personally, I think expecting the perfect candidate or party is asking for the moon on a stick. Many people vote without being entirely happy with the recipient of their vote. You may bemoan the lack of options, but there is still some choice, some differentiation between the parties.
    >
    > It's not like getting married where you should probably only do it when you're sure. It's more like buying a brand of toothpaste. If you end up unhappy with your choice you can find something better next time around but for god's sake, you still need to brush your teeth!

    Yes that would also be a good idea. My point was not to leave it entirely blank.
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Cookie said:

    FWIW, turnout at my polling station in suburban GM is very high so far. Postal voting also very high. Difficult to tell whether it is the pro- or anti-Brexit camp which is most energised, though one fella did just vote with a copy of the Express under his arm.

    North, South, East or West GM?

    If South it’s good for Remain.
  • Options
    DoubleDDoubleD Posts: 63
    TURNOUT ALERT: Two south-west London councils forecast 40% turnout, and they are tracking lower currently. (Past performance not necessarily etc etc)
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,505
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @Cookie said:
    > > FWIW, turnout at my polling station in suburban GM is very high so far. Postal voting also very high. Difficult to tell whether it is the pro- or anti-Brexit camp which is most energised, though one fella did just vote with a copy of the Express under his arm.
    >
    > Is this the Altrincham & Sale West constituency? Just a guess.

    No, the one next door - WSE.
  • Options
    ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @RochdalePioneers said:
    > I know what its like to be a losing candidate

    To be fair, it's not nice being a losing candidate whichever party. They're all humans. So I wouldn't count that as an argument for any party.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    isam said:

    .

    > @isam said:

    > 4/6 now May goes before July 🤔



    The devil is in the detail. There must be a prime minister, and that will be Theresa May even if she announces her resignation after meeting Brady tomorrow, until a successor is appointed. In other words, we might be betting on the length of a Conservative Party election process.



    In the past, these party elections have been circumvented entirely when only one candidate was nominated, as when Michael Howard took over from IDS, or cut short, when the second-placed candidate withdraws before the wider membership can vote, as happened last time when Theresa May succeeded David Cameron rather sooner than he had anticipated.



    So really any time between March and October is possible, even if Theresa May sets the contest in motion tomorrow. If she hangs on, perhaps even later.

    I’ve put my money where my mouth is.

    In less than an hour this morning, May gone by July has gone 1.74 from 1.5 😳


    I'm deeply tempted by that October to December shot.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    edited May 2019
    Turnout - I'll be voting this evening so will be able to give an anecdote in the old labour Brexitshire heartlands.
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    DoubleD said:

    TURNOUT ALERT: Two south-west London councils forecast 40% turnout, and they are tracking lower currently. (Past performance not necessarily etc etc)

    In 2014 London turnout was just over 40%. So if they are representative then that would suggest a similar turnout to last time.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    isam said:


    Given that we have not left and that the current situation stems from people trying to prevent our leaving your point is wildly wrong.

    It shows how hardcore Remainers never put themselves into the shoes of their ‘opponents’ that they don’t see that having a Remain PM and Parliament contrive to keep us in the EU, three years after we voted to Leave, might not feel like our side being given a go and failing.
    Well here's an opportunity to put yourself in my shoes if that is something you think is important.

    Leaving was blocked by Leave supporting MPs. I literally switched from accepting the result to wanting Article 50 revoked as a direct result of their actions. I may be unique - but I am not unique in any other way so that seems unlikely.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,058
    > @isam said:
    > Might vote Lib Dem myself!
    >
    > https://twitter.com/paulembery/status/1129800372166512640

    It's grown-up politician, and professional economist, recognising that there are a variety of results which can come from a situation.
This discussion has been closed.