> @tlg86 said: > A good day to bury bad news: > > https://tinyurl.com/y4cwcsyo > > George Osborne has announced a round of job cuts at the Evening Standard, as the London newspaper prepares to merge its print and online teams to reduce costs. > > The former Conservative chancellor became the newspaper’s editor in 2017 and stepped down from parliament soon after. In an email to staff he said the outlet was “facing a tough economic market with rising costs” and that the separate online and print teams would be merged to “ensure the Standard evolves to be profitable and keeps pace with our fast-changing society”.
Seems to me that these elections and the EP ones to come will provide evidence to convince all sides in both the big parties that they are right. The ,locals show a big majority for "remain" parties (including Labour) and both sides of the argument in Labour have already claimed that the result bears out their analysis. It's likely that the EP election will show a much better performance for "leave" parties and both sides of the argument in the Tory Party will claim that the result bears out their analysis.
The net result of all this will be to deepen the impasse and make it even less likely that any Brexit deal will pass the Commons in the foreseeable future.
> @viewcode said: > I know @NickPalmer was the Nick who won, but which Andy was the Andy that won. And I know @HYFUD lost, and @JohnO lost, but who was the other pber who lost?
> @KentRising said: > > @tlg86 said: > > A good day to bury bad news: > > > > https://tinyurl.com/y4cwcsyo > > > > George Osborne has announced a round of job cuts at the Evening Standard, as the London newspaper prepares to merge its print and online teams to reduce costs. > > > > The former Conservative chancellor became the newspaper’s editor in 2017 and stepped down from parliament soon after. In an email to staff he said the outlet was “facing a tough economic market with rising costs” and that the separate online and print teams would be merged to “ensure the Standard evolves to be profitable and keeps pace with our fast-changing society”. > > George loves a bit of austerity.
> @tlg86 said: > A good day to bury bad news: > > https://tinyurl.com/y4cwcsyo > > George Osborne has announced a round of job cuts at the Evening Standard, as the London newspaper prepares to merge its print and online teams to reduce costs. > > The former Conservative chancellor became the newspaper’s editor in 2017 and stepped down from parliament soon after. In an email to staff he said the outlet was “facing a tough economic market with rising costs” and that the separate online and print teams would be merged to “ensure the Standard evolves to be profitable and keeps pace with our fast-changing society”.
> @justin124 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Wulfrun_Phil said: > > > In terms of the media narrative, Labour has been hurt by the fact that it had the bulk of its net losses quite early on last night after which the figure largely held steady today, whereas the Conservative losses seem to have got much worse throughout the day. > > > > > > The BBC as a consequence took to reporting "heavy Conservative and Labour losses" from the outset as if there was some equivalence, and lazily failed to change tack as the nuances played out. > > > > > > Right now we have a net Labour loss of 83 compared to a net Conservative loss of 1180 - a ratio of something like 1:14. Even allowing for 2015 being a moderately good year for the Conservatives (enough to secure only a very narrow parliamentary majority) those results are nothing like equally bad for Labour and the Conservatives. > > > > Yet still abysmal for any opposition party 9 years out of power > > It is not brilliant but still represents a 3% swing from Con to Lab compared with 2015 - and a 1% swing compared with 2017. As I pointed out earlier, Labour lost seats in the Local Elections of 1959,1960 & 1961 despite having been out of office since 1951. In May 1970 the Tories lost several hundred seats to Labour - yet went on to win the General Election just five weeks later.
Notwithstanding my earlier comment, the only comfort that Labour can take from a poor overall result is that the Conservatives' abysmal result is much worse.
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @Charles said: > > Actor Tony Robinson quitting Labour after 45 years over antisemitism and Brexit. > > > > Wasn’t he in the NEC for many years? > > Yes he was. Sensible labour are fleeing the lunatics in charge
Not buying it. There's been nothing in any anti-semitism stories in the past half year which would be more true now than then, so as an excuse for leaving it does not hold up. Brexit is therefore the only credible reason.
> @Charles said: > Congratulations to @NickPalmer > > > > Godalming Binscombe Ward > > Anne Gray, Conservative Party candidate - 375 votes > > David Malcolm Hunter, Conservative Party candidate - 302 votes > > Nicholas Douglas Palmer, Labour Party - 467 votes - ELECTED > > Paul Sidney Rivers, Liberal Democrats - 729 votes - ELECTED > > I thought he didn’t want to win!
Comfortably elected, if on the coattails of the Liberal Democrats, who must be regretting not putting up a second candidate. At least someone has broken the PB jinx. If only HY had done a little less canvassing....
Comparing the vote totals with the number of ballot papers, there were a lot of unused single votes. Over 200 voters were prepared to back the LibDem and leave their other vote uncast, rather than opt for Labour. Some combination of antipathy to Corbyn and reluctance to support a Brexit party, at a guess.
Personally if I was either of the main two parties I’d rather be labour. Yes there’s a lot of Brexit navel gazing to come but IF you can get it done and dusted and move the public conversation on to things like transport, wages, housing, social security, the NHS you’ve got a raft of policies which I think do chime with the public. Labour really, really need Brexit to be sorted or nearly sorted by 2022 so it’s much less of an issue.
Whereas if you’re the Tories you’re looking pretty irredeemably f’d right now.
> @IanB2 said: > > @Charles said: > > Congratulations to @NickPalmer > > > > > > > > Godalming Binscombe Ward > > > > Anne Gray, Conservative Party candidate - 375 votes > > > > David Malcolm Hunter, Conservative Party candidate - 302 votes > > > > Nicholas Douglas Palmer, Labour Party - 467 votes - ELECTED > > > > Paul Sidney Rivers, Liberal Democrats - 729 votes - ELECTED > > > > I thought he didn’t want to win! > > Comfortably elected, if on the coattails of the Liberal Democrats, who must be regretting not putting up a second candidate.
Always seems worth it - you see it so often when there is a surge and you miss out as a result...
> @kle4 said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > @Charles said: > > > Actor Tony Robinson quitting Labour after 45 years over antisemitism and Brexit. > > > > > > Wasn’t he in the NEC for many years? > > > > Yes he was. Sensible labour are fleeing the lunatics in charge > > Not buying it. There's been nothing in any anti-semitism stories in the past half year which would be more true now than then, so as an excuse for leaving it does not hold up. Brexit is therefore the only credible reason.
> @IanB2 said: > > @Charles said: > > Congratulations to @NickPalmer > > > > > > > > Godalming Binscombe Ward > > > > Anne Gray, Conservative Party candidate - 375 votes > > > > David Malcolm Hunter, Conservative Party candidate - 302 votes > > > > Nicholas Douglas Palmer, Labour Party - 467 votes - ELECTED > > > > Paul Sidney Rivers, Liberal Democrats - 729 votes - ELECTED > > > > I thought he didn’t want to win! > > Comfortably elected, if on the coattails of the Liberal Democrats, who must be regretting not putting up a second candidate. At least someone has broken the PB jinx. If only HY had done a little less canvassing....
If I had not done any canvassing we may have lost the District seat too and I would have lost by even more (we won it by less than 100 and lost the other District seat to the LDs)
> @Foxy said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > @Charles said: > > > > Actor Tony Robinson quitting Labour after 45 years over antisemitism and Brexit. > > > > > > > > Wasn’t he in the NEC for many years? > > > > > > Yes he was. Sensible labour are fleeing the lunatics in charge > > > > Not buying it. There's been nothing in any anti-semitism stories in the past half year which would be more true now than then, so as an excuse for leaving it does not hold up. Brexit is therefore the only credible reason. > > His statement mentions Brexit first: > > https://twitter.com/Tony_Robinson/status/1124297214472400898?s=19
Yes, which makes sense, I just don't believe him about the antisemitism. Basically if it were not for Brexit he could look past what either he didn't think was an antisemitism problem before, or not a problem that could not be fixed.
> @anothernick said: > Seems to me that these elections and the EP ones to come will provide evidence to convince all sides in both the big parties that they are right. The ,locals show a big majority for "remain" parties (including Labour) and both sides of the argument in Labour have already claimed that the result bears out their analysis. It's likely that the EP election will show a much better performance for "leave" parties and both sides of the argument in the Tory Party will claim that the result bears out their analysis. > > The net result of all this will be to deepen the impasse and make it even less likely that any Brexit deal will pass the Commons in the foreseeable future.
And the longer we don't Brexit the greater will be the Brexit Party advance
> @numbertwelve said: > Personally if I was either of the main two parties I’d rather be labour. Yes there’s a lot of Brexit navel gazing to come but IF you can get it done and dusted and move the public conversation on to things like transport, wages, housing, social security, the NHS you’ve got a raft of policies which I think do chime with the public. Labour really, really need Brexit to be sorted or nearly sorted by 2022 so it’s much less of an issue. > > Whereas if you’re the Tories you’re looking pretty irredeemably f’d right now. > >
It’s a massive political failing on the Tories’ part that they haven’t managed to ally Brexit with any sort of wider and positive policy agenda.
Most of the ultras cling to a negative prospectus of deliberately self-inflicted chaos that offers nothing but supposedly “temporary” disruption to the person in the street. None of the leading Brexiters have offered any wider vision; most of them have run away at the first sign of a tough decision. Boris has been in hiding. May has deliberately said as little as possible about anything.
No wonder that Brexit is losing its appeal, particularly among working age voters.
> I know @NickPalmer was the Nick who won, but which Andy was the Andy that won. And I know @HYFUD lost, and @JohnO lost, but who was the other pber who lost?
Trouble for now is I can see both party leaders perhaps finally being ready to compromise in some major way with the other to try to get this done (while Labour are not as immediately riven by all this, clearly there are issues and I very much doubt Corbyn wants to be talking about Brexit all the time).
I just don't see how they carry a majority of the House with them. Even party loyalists seem like they will not accept the kind of compromises that would be needed, not enough of them.
Add to that the issue of time - the EP elections are happening now, no getting away from it, so where's the incentive to sort something in advance? No deal Tories will want to see how well the BP do to bolster their arguments for harder Brexits, and Labour will no doubt want to see if they can come top or at least how much more of the vote they get than the Tories so they know how strong a position they are in, relatively speaking.
After all, even here the same arguments about there being no options but deal or referendum, but wait no there is if we go back with a deal etc etc, have no changed - it seems optimistic to think it will in parliament.
If you are genuinely pissed off by May's failure to come up with anything that feels remotely like the Brexit you voted for, and are unwilling to vote for a party which openly consorts with modern day neo-fascists, you didn't have a lot of choice.
That I think explains much of the remarkable resurgence in the votes for independents, representing a more effective means of stymieing the other parties than spoiling a ballot paper.
> @IanB2 said: > > @numbertwelve said: > > Personally if I was either of the main two parties I’d rather be labour. Yes there’s a lot of Brexit navel gazing to come but IF you can get it done and dusted and move the public conversation on to things like transport, wages, housing, social security, the NHS you’ve got a raft of policies which I think do chime with the public. Labour really, really need Brexit to be sorted or nearly sorted by 2022 so it’s much less of an issue. > > > > Whereas if you’re the Tories you’re looking pretty irredeemably f’d right now. > > > > > > It’s a massive political failing on the Tories’ part that they haven’t managed to ally Brexit with any sort of wider and positive policy agenda. > > Most of the ultras cling to a negative prospectus of deliberately self-inflicted chaos that offers nothing but supposedly “temporary” disruption to the person in the street. None of the leading Brexiters have offered any wider vision; most of them have run away at the first sign of a tough decision. Boris has been in hiding. May has deliberately said as little as possible about anything. > > No wonder that Brexit is losing its appeal, particularly among working age voters. >
I’ve always been amazed that May has never been able to clearly say “We want a Brexit that does X so that we can do Y”. Yes I know there’s been the whole money/borders/laws thing but that’s really weak and whingy stuff. She had a chance to set out a positive prospectus on Brexit and failed. What’s even worse is that the Brexiteers don’t have a clue what they want either. No wonder people are sick of it.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Stereotomy said: > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > Change will be delighted at the independent surge. > > > > > > > > Change future lies with merging with the Lib Dems > > > > Why would the Lib Dems have them? They're not liberals. > > > > And if they wanted to join the Lib Dems why wouldn't they have done that in the first place? > > How many LibDems are actually liberal though? Was Tim Farron for example? Like most of our parties, it is a broad church, with a mix of liberals, social democrats, pragmatists, centre lefts, centre rights, environmentalists.
Farron was. That's why he was baffled that people cared about his stance on homosexuallity given that he wasn't going to impose it on anyone else.
What is the practical deadline for sorting something out if calling off the European elections? I'm sure in theory the deadline could be all the way up to very late on the Wednesday night but surely the practical reality will mean that there is some effective cut-off before then that means we're essentially committed regardless.
> @solarflare said: > What is the practical deadline for sorting something out if calling off the European elections? I'm sure in theory the deadline could be all the way up to very late on the Wednesday night but surely the practical reality will mean that there is some effective cut-off before then that means we're essentially committed regardless.
Given the vote is not counted until Sunday (who has elections on Sundays anyway?), couldn't it also be cancelled on the Saturday?
> @Stereotomy said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @Stereotomy said: > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > > > Change will be delighted at the independent surge. > > > > > > > > > > > > Change future lies with merging with the Lib Dems > > > > > > Why would the Lib Dems have them? They're not liberals. > > > > > > And if they wanted to join the Lib Dems why wouldn't they have done that in the first place? > > > > How many LibDems are actually liberal though? Was Tim Farron for example? Like most of our parties, it is a broad church, with a mix of liberals, social democrats, pragmatists, centre lefts, centre rights, environmentalists. > > Farron was. That's why he was baffled that people cared about his stance on homosexuallity given that he wasn't going to impose it on anyone else.
That doesn't really wash. If it were that simple he could have told the truth about his stance and defend it on that basis rather than lie about it and be regretful afterwards.
> @solarflare said: > What is the practical deadline for sorting something out if calling off the European elections? I'm sure in theory the deadline could be all the way up to very late on the Wednesday night but surely the practical reality will mean that there is some effective cut-off before then that means we're essentially committed regardless.
Even if by a miracle Labour and Tories do a deal which gets passed in the Commons the WAIB will take weeks to get through as it needs to go into the HOL.
Mays current thinking is not avoiding EU elections but the UK MEPs not taking their seats .
Yes, which makes sense, I just don't believe him about the antisemitism. Basically if it were not for Brexit he could look past what either he didn't think was an antisemitism problem before, or not a problem that could not be fixed.
People can have more than one motive for an action, and there can be more than a little stiction involved. He has been in the Labour movement for over four decades, and it must be absolutely gutting to leave anything after so long - especially as you might lose long-standing friends in the process. For many people, their party allegiance is part of their identity.
He might well have thought that anti-Semitism was a problem, but leaving would do nothing to help combat it. But when combined with Brexit and the absolute shower that lead the party, it became enough to overcome the stiction.
Or he may have finally realised that the leadership had no intention to 'fix' the anti-Semitism problem, because they are the problem.
> > I'm surprised by how badly the Conservatives did in Essex.
>
> And Surrey, Hertfordshire, etc. Surrey is now the Tory front line!
>
Hertfordshire was okay, I thought. It's strange that Surrey should have produced such different results to Berkshire, or neighbouring parts of Hampshire.
Hampshire has a shit hot council in EHDC.
The yellow peril and socialist hordes have invaded four wards of my home town, though. Which I’m not happy about.
> @RobD said: > > @solarflare said: > > What is the practical deadline for sorting something out if calling off the European elections? I'm sure in theory the deadline could be all the way up to very late on the Wednesday night but surely the practical reality will mean that there is some effective cut-off before then that means we're essentially committed regardless. > > Given the vote is not counted until Sunday (who has elections on Sundays anyway?), couldn't it also be cancelled on the Saturday?
It isn’t going to be cancelled, so it’s rather academic. It would also be bad form to cancel once votes start being cast, which in the case of PVs won’t be long now. The one thing that perhaps has changed is that Labour might not be quite so keen to have the elections as it was.
Dave Hodgson (Lib Dem) – 17,596 (35.2%) Gianni Carofano (Conservative) – 15,778 (31.6%) Jenni Jackson (Labour and Co-op) – 9,677 (19.4%) Adrian Spurrell (The Green Party) – 3,239 (6.5%) Adrian John Haynes (UKIP) – 2,627 (5.3%)
> @IanB2 said: > > @RobD said: > > > @solarflare said: > > > What is the practical deadline for sorting something out if calling off the European elections? I'm sure in theory the deadline could be all the way up to very late on the Wednesday night but surely the practical reality will mean that there is some effective cut-off before then that means we're essentially committed regardless. > > > > Given the vote is not counted until Sunday (who has elections on Sundays anyway?), couldn't it also be cancelled on the Saturday? > > It isn’t going to be cancelled, so it’s rather academic. It would also be bad form to cancel once votes start being cast, which in the case of PVs won’t be long now. The one thing that perhaps has changed is that Labour might not be quite so keen to have the elections as it was. >
Why would it be bad form? If the MEPs aren't going to take their seats, the votes are irrelevant.
I’d say avoiding the election is a ship which has already sailed. Many ministers up to and including May have been talking about “before October” for a week or two. The EU won’t accept a election cancellation unless there’s absolutely no way back, so that has to mean legislation passed.
I’m not sure whether that’s absolutely impossible, or just unrealistic given there isn’t actually an agreement yet and the prospect of both Houses playing silly buggers with the Bill. But I don’t see it happening.
On the “Labour has a bad night” front.. I’m absolutely with those who think their failure to advance in face of such a Tory collapse is very bad. Sure, not comparable seat losses, but they should have been recovering strongly from Ed’s nadir in 2015.
For both main parties to move from c40% each in 2017 to a PNS of 28 now is pretty good going all round...
FPT - Many thanks for the commiserations on my sub optimal result in deepest ex blue Surrey. Majority against was 300 at the upper end of expectations, though I knew I’d lose. But for one elector, it was obviously personal for he/she scrawled in big black pencil TRAITOR against my name, which I thought a mite harsh. Must have known my Fenian background......
Commiserations, JohnO.
You give a lot to your local community and I hope you’re back again soon.
> > Personally if I was either of the main two parties I’d rather be labour. Yes there’s a lot of Brexit navel gazing to come but IF you can get it done and dusted and move the public conversation on to things like transport, wages, housing, social security, the NHS you’ve got a raft of policies which I think do chime with the public. Labour really, really need Brexit to be sorted or nearly sorted by 2022 so it’s much less of an issue.
> >
> > Whereas if you’re the Tories you’re looking pretty irredeemably f’d right now.
> >
> >
>
> It’s a massive political failing on the Tories’ part that they haven’t managed to ally Brexit with any sort of wider and positive policy agenda.
>
> Most of the ultras cling to a negative prospectus of deliberately self-inflicted chaos that offers nothing but supposedly “temporary” disruption to the person in the street. None of the leading Brexiters have offered any wider vision; most of them have run away at the first sign of a tough decision. Boris has been in hiding. May has deliberately said as little as possible about anything.
>
> No wonder that Brexit is losing its appeal, particularly among working age voters.
>
I’ve always been amazed that May has never been able to clearly say “We want a Brexit that does X so that we can do Y”. Yes I know there’s been the whole money/borders/laws thing but that’s really weak and whingy stuff. She had a chance to set out a positive prospectus on Brexit and failed. What’s even worse is that the Brexiteers don’t have a clue what they want either. No wonder people are sick of it.
That’s because there are no benefits from Brexit. Nil, zip, nada. Never were, never will be.
> @Streeter said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @numbertwelve said: > > > > Personally if I was either of the main two parties I’d rather be labour. Yes there’s a lot of Brexit navel gazing to come but IF you can get it done and dusted and move the public conversation on to things like transport, wages, housing, social security, the NHS you’ve got a raft of policies which I think do chime with the public. Labour really, really need Brexit to be sorted or nearly sorted by 2022 so it’s much less of an issue. > > > > > > > > Whereas if you’re the Tories you’re looking pretty irredeemably f’d right now. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It’s a massive political failing on the Tories’ part that they haven’t managed to ally Brexit with any sort of wider and positive policy agenda. > > > > > > Most of the ultras cling to a negative prospectus of deliberately self-inflicted chaos that offers nothing but supposedly “temporary” disruption to the person in the street. None of the leading Brexiters have offered any wider vision; most of them have run away at the first sign of a tough decision. Boris has been in hiding. May has deliberately said as little as possible about anything. > > > > > > No wonder that Brexit is losing its appeal, particularly among working age voters. > > > > > > > I’ve always been amazed that May has never been able to clearly say “We want a Brexit that does X so that we can do Y”. Yes I know there’s been the whole money/borders/laws thing but that’s really weak and whingy stuff. She had a chance to set out a positive prospectus on Brexit and failed. What’s even worse is that the Brexiteers don’t have a clue what they want either. No wonder people are sick of it. > > That’s because there are no benefits from Brexit. Nil, zip, nada. Never were, never will be.
The only benefits come from being ruled by Brussels, I suppose?
MoggMentum wouldn't have been pleased by this I guess. "The Lib Dems have taken control of Bath and North East Somerset Council from the Conservatives. The party overturned a previous Tory majority of seven and won 37 of the 59 seats available - a gain of 23. The Conservatives took nine seats, a loss of 24 since the last election in 2015. Labour took seven seats and six seats were claimed by independents."
> @Streeter said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @numbertwelve said: > > > > Personally if I was either of the main two parties I’d rather be labour. Yes there’s a lot of Brexit navel gazing to come but IF you can get it done and dusted and move the public conversation on to things like transport, wages, housing, social security, the NHS you’ve got a raft of policies which I think do chime with the public. Labour really, really need Brexit to be sorted or nearly sorted by 2022 so it’s much less of an issue. > > > > > > > > Whereas if you’re the Tories you’re looking pretty irredeemably f’d right now. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It’s a massive political failing on the Tories’ part that they haven’t managed to ally Brexit with any sort of wider and positive policy agenda. > > > > > > Most of the ultras cling to a negative prospectus of deliberately self-inflicted chaos that offers nothing but supposedly “temporary” disruption to the person in the street. None of the leading Brexiters have offered any wider vision; most of them have run away at the first sign of a tough decision. Boris has been in hiding. May has deliberately said as little as possible about anything. > > > > > > No wonder that Brexit is losing its appeal, particularly among working age voters. > > > > > > > I’ve always been amazed that May has never been able to clearly say “We want a Brexit that does X so that we can do Y”. Yes I know there’s been the whole money/borders/laws thing but that’s really weak and whingy stuff. She had a chance to set out a positive prospectus on Brexit and failed. What’s even worse is that the Brexiteers don’t have a clue what they want either. No wonder people are sick of it. > > That’s because there are no benefits from Brexit. Nil, zip, nada. Never were, never will be.
> @JosiasJessop said: > Yes, which makes sense, I just don't believe him about the antisemitism. Basically if it were not for Brexit he could look past what either he didn't think was an antisemitism problem before, or not a problem that could not be fixed. > > People can have more than one motive for an action, and there can be more than a little stiction involved. He has been in the Labour movement for over four decades, and it must be absolutely gutting to leave anything after so long - especially as you might lose long-standing friends in the process. For many people, their party allegiance is part of their identity. > > He might well have thought that anti-Semitism was a problem, but leaving would do nothing to help combat it. But when combined with Brexit and the absolute shower that lead the party, it became enough to overcome the stiction. > > Or he may have finally realised that the leadership had no intention to 'fix' the anti-Semitism problem, because they are the problem.
I still don't buy it. People have been saying Corbyn was a problem in that regard for years. Brexit is his tipping point, that's fine, but crying about the anti-semitism being an issue now is weak.
Far from being lazy, the BBC is close to the money in featuring the bad news for Tory and Labour with some sort of equivalence.
After all, the reason for the Tory massively greater losses is almost all to do with the elections taking place in locations excluding almost all of Labour’s heartlands and the Tories defending the very high water mark of 2015.
Until a few weeks’ ago, both major parties were at level pegging in the polls around the 38-40% mark. The last NEV I saw for yesterday’s elections put both of them still level pegging at 28% apiece.
Therefore, despite the hugely greater Tory losses, both main parties have retreated by a similar amount in terms of votes.
In terms of ‘surprise’, Labour’s fall is the *news*, since the Tory setback was already expected and already showing in the most recent polls.
> @paulyork64 said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > Con have now past 1,300 losses! > > can we put this to bed soon so we can get down to the big betting event of the weekend. Who is "H"?
Surely LoD will keep that big reveal until the final episode of the final (next) series?
> @Wulfrun_Phil said: > > @HYUFD said: > > https://twitter.com/MoggMentum/status/1124237686724628480?s=20 > > If you are genuinely pissed off by May's failure to come up with anything that feels remotely like the Brexit you voted for, and are unwilling to vote for a party which openly consorts with modern day neo-fascists, you didn't have a lot of choice. > > That I think explains much of the remarkable resurgence in the votes for independents, representing a more effective means of stymieing the other parties than spoiling a ballot paper. > > On 23rd May, that choice will however be there.
As a lifetime Conservative voter, I was going to abstain from voting on the 23rd, but the deranged crowing from the people's vote mob that today's result is somehow a vote for remain has convinced me of the need to send an unequivocal message. Deliver. Brexit. Brexit Party on May 23rd it is.
> If you are genuinely pissed off by May's failure to come up with anything that feels remotely like the Brexit you voted for, and are unwilling to vote for a party which openly consorts with modern day neo-fascists, you didn't have a lot of choice.
>
> That I think explains much of the remarkable resurgence in the votes for independents, representing a more effective means of stymieing the other parties than spoiling a ballot paper.
>
> On 23rd May, that choice will however be there.
As a lifetime Conservative voter, I was going to abstain from voting on the 23rd, but the deranged crowing from the people's vote mob that today's result is somehow a vote for remain has convinced me of the need to send an unequivocal message. Deliver. Brexit. Brexit Party on May 23rd it is.
All of my friends who want to Remain are convinced these results are a very strong mandate to Remain.
> @IanB2 said: > > @paulyork64 said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > Con have now past 1,300 losses! > > > > can we put this to bed soon so we can get down to the big betting event of the weekend. Who is "H"? > > Surely LoD will keep that big reveal until the final episode of the final (next) series?
I thought Jed M had said he wasn't writing another one? could have misheard. Skys rules say bet will be settled once someone is charged and found guilty. a lot of ground to cover in one episode unless they cover it with subtitles at the end like in early series. also dead heat rule applies but not sure how there can be more than one H. more than one more bad apple certainly tho.
Far from being lazy, the BBC is close to the money in featuring the bad news for Tory and Labour with some sort of equivalence.
After all, the reason for the Tory massively greater losses is almost all to do with the elections taking place in locations excluding almost all of Labour’s heartlands and the Tories defending the very high water mark of 2015.
Until a few weeks’ ago, both major parties were at level pegging in the polls around the 38-40% mark. The last NEV I saw for yesterday’s elections put both of them still level pegging at 28% apiece.
Therefore, despite the hugely greater Tory losses, both main parties have retreated by a similar amount in terms of votes.
In terms of ‘surprise’, Labour’s fall is the *news*, since the Tory setback was already expected and already showing in the most recent polls.
> @Thayer5 said: > OK this is way worse, for the Tories, than I anticipated late last night. 1300 losses borders on the apocalyptic, as handily defined by Sean Fear. > > But Labour have, in their own way, done easily as bad. > > All is changed, changed utterly.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > Con have now past 1,300 losses! > > > > can we put this to bed soon so we can get down to the big betting event of the weekend. Who is "H"? > > H is a singer from the legendary band Steps, his official name is Ian Watkins.
OK this is way worse, for the Tories, than I anticipated late last night. 1300 losses borders on the apocalyptic, as handily defined by Sean Fear.
But Labour have, in their own way, done easily as bad.
All is changed, changed utterly.
Steady. You can overstate the case.
These results are a disaster for the Conservatives, but they’re not apocalyptic. If they were they wouldn’t be picking up any councils at all and hardly holding any.
As it is, they still outnumber Labour and LD councillors put together. This is a massive rebellion and huge warning shot.
It is possibly a sign of losing middle class previously Tory swing voters in parts of the South too, which may tell in a future GE.
> @paulyork64 said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @paulyork64 said: > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > Con have now past 1,300 losses! > > > > > > can we put this to bed soon so we can get down to the big betting event of the weekend. Who is "H"? > > > > Surely LoD will keep that big reveal until the final episode of the final (next) series? > > I thought Jed M had said he wasn't writing another one? could have misheard. Skys rules say bet will be settled once someone is charged and found guilty. a lot of ground to cover in one episode unless they cover it with subtitles at the end like in early series. also dead heat rule applies but not sure how there can be more than one H. more than one more bad apple certainly tho.
According to WP, the BBC has ordered a sixth series, which I am fairly sure is intended to be the last.
The obvious way to develop the story this series is for Hastings to end up looking like he is H and his career is in ruins, then the final series sees his two trusty team members prove his innocence and unmask the real H. Just a guess.
> @Casino_Royale said: > OK this is way worse, for the Tories, than I anticipated late last night. 1300 losses borders on the apocalyptic, as handily defined by Sean Fear. > > > > But Labour have, in their own way, done easily as bad. > > > > All is changed, changed utterly. > > Steady. You can overstate the case. > > These results are a disaster for the Conservatives, but they’re not apocalyptic. If they were they wouldn’t be picking up any councils at all and hardly holding any. > > As it is, they still outnumber Labour and LD councillors put together. This is a massive rebellion and huge warning shot. > > It is possibly a sign of losing middle class previously Tory swing voters in parts of the South too, which may tell in a future GE.
Its not apocalyptic nor is it even a disaster.
But it should be a much needed wake up call for Conservatives in the South.
> @Casino_Royale said: > OK this is way worse, for the Tories, than I anticipated late last night. 1300 losses borders on the apocalyptic, as handily defined by Sean Fear. > > > > But Labour have, in their own way, done easily as bad. > > > > All is changed, changed utterly. > > Steady. You can overstate the case. > > These results are a disaster for the Conservatives, but they’re not apocalyptic. If they were they wouldn’t be picking up any councils at all and hardly holding any. > > As it is, they still outnumber Labour and LD councillors put together. This is a massive rebellion and huge warning shot. > > It is possibly a sign of losing middle class previously Tory swing voters in parts of the South too, which may tell in a future GE.
It’s only not a disaster for the Tories because the Labour vote is also down and most seats are Labour/Tory contests. If either of them had scored an NEV of 28% with the other ten per cent higher, they’d be looking at meltdown. Yet our voting system continues to prop both the large parties up and with a combined NEV of not much above half the vote they still walk away with most of the seats between them.
> @IanB2 said: > > @paulyork64 said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @paulyork64 said: > > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > Con have now past 1,300 losses! > > > > > > > > can we put this to bed soon so we can get down to the big betting event of the weekend. Who is "H"? > > > > > > Surely LoD will keep that big reveal until the final episode of the final (next) series? > > > > I thought Jed M had said he wasn't writing another one? could have misheard. Skys rules say bet will be settled once someone is charged and found guilty. a lot of ground to cover in one episode unless they cover it with subtitles at the end like in early series. also dead heat rule applies but not sure how there can be more than one H. more than one more bad apple certainly tho. > > According to WP, the BBC has ordered a sixth series, which I am fairly sure is intended to be the last. > > The obvious way to develop the story this series is for Hastings to end up looking like he is H and his career is in ruins, then the final series sees his two trusty team members prove his innocence and unmask the real H. Just a guess. >
a fair guess. glad there's a series 6 but sounds like there might be a wait. I thought he was gonna switch to just doing more bodyguard after its success. I hope they resolve H for this series. Dear God there'll be more bent coppers for S6.
> Yes, which makes sense, I just don't believe him about the antisemitism. Basically if it were not for Brexit he could look past what either he didn't think was an antisemitism problem before, or not a problem that could not be fixed.
>
> People can have more than one motive for an action, and there can be more than a little stiction involved. He has been in the Labour movement for over four decades, and it must be absolutely gutting to leave anything after so long - especially as you might lose long-standing friends in the process. For many people, their party allegiance is part of their identity.
>
> He might well have thought that anti-Semitism was a problem, but leaving would do nothing to help combat it. But when combined with Brexit and the absolute shower that lead the party, it became enough to overcome the stiction.
>
> Or he may have finally realised that the leadership had no intention to 'fix' the anti-Semitism problem, because they are the problem.
I still don't buy it. People have been saying Corbyn was a problem in that regard for years. Brexit is his tipping point, that's fine, but crying about the anti-semitism being an issue now is weak.
Well, I disagree. Robinson hasn't been happy with the state of Labour for some time: 18 months ago he called the leadership a 'leftist clique'.
And more evidence comes forward regarding Corbyn and his ilk wrt anti-Semitism. It might easily be that the weight of evidence has got too much for him - as it should for all Labour members with a conscience.
But my point remains: people often (usually?) have multiple motives for doing something.
MoggMentum wouldn't have been pleased by this I guess. "The Lib Dems have taken control of Bath and North East Somerset Council from the Conservatives.
The party overturned a previous Tory majority of seven and won 37 of the 59 seats available - a gain of 23.
The Conservatives took nine seats, a loss of 24 since the last election in 2015. Labour took seven seats and six seats were claimed by independents."
It’s wrong to view these results as endorsement of Leave or Remain. Neither is popular.
> @paulyork64 said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @paulyork64 said: > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > @paulyork64 said: > > > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > > Con have now past 1,300 losses! > > > > > > > > > > can we put this to bed soon so we can get down to the big betting event of the weekend. Who is "H"? > > > > > > > > Surely LoD will keep that big reveal until the final episode of the final (next) series? > > > > > > I thought Jed M had said he wasn't writing another one? could have misheard. Skys rules say bet will be settled once someone is charged and found guilty. a lot of ground to cover in one episode unless they cover it with subtitles at the end like in early series. also dead heat rule applies but not sure how there can be more than one H. more than one more bad apple certainly tho. > > > > According to WP, the BBC has ordered a sixth series, which I am fairly sure is intended to be the last. > > > > The obvious way to develop the story this series is for Hastings to end up looking like he is H and his career is in ruins, then the final series sees his two trusty team members prove his innocence and unmask the real H. Just a guess. > > > > a fair guess. glad there's a series 6 but sounds like there might be a wait. I thought he was gonna switch to just doing more bodyguard after its success. I hope they resolve H for this series. Dear God there'll be more bent coppers for S6.
No way the storyline running through the multiple series will be revealed before the end!
> @another_richard said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > So, my prediction the locals wouldn’t be as bad as expected looks a bit..wrong. > > The Conservative losses are coming in the South. > > Personally I think it a good thing if some complacent Conservative councils get swept out. > > It will hopefully encourage the Conservatives into some deeper thinking on issues such as housing, debt and aspiration.
It will do no harm at all for lots of Conservative councils to now have a credible opposition.
> That’s because there are no benefits from Brexit. Nil, zip, nada. Never were, never will be.
Depends how you look at it. The benefits are imaginary but if millions of people believe themselves to be a little bit more 'sovereign' as a consequence of it happening and this genuinely makes them feel happier and more empowered and important then that is no shabby thing.
> @Sean_F said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > So, my prediction the locals wouldn’t be as bad as expected looks a bit..wrong. > > > > The Conservative losses are coming in the South. > > > > Personally I think it a good thing if some complacent Conservative councils get swept out. > > > > It will hopefully encourage the Conservatives into some deeper thinking on issues such as housing, debt and aspiration. > > It will do no harm at all for lots of Conservative councils to now have a credible opposition.
Indeed.
Hopefully the likes of Nick Palmer can make an issue of housing affordability.
The Conservatives have lapsed into being the party of smug haves.
MoggMentum wouldn't have been pleased by this I guess. "The Lib Dems have taken control of Bath and North East Somerset Council from the Conservatives.
The party overturned a previous Tory majority of seven and won 37 of the 59 seats available - a gain of 23.
The Conservatives took nine seats, a loss of 24 since the last election in 2015. Labour took seven seats and six seats were claimed by independents."
It’s wrong to view these results as endorsement of Leave or Remain. Neither is popular.
It sure you can say that from the available data. Leavers may have simply not voted.
> @Thayer5 said: > OK this is way worse, for the Tories, than I anticipated late last night. 1300 losses borders on the apocalyptic, as handily defined by Sean Fear. > > But Labour have, in their own way, done easily as bad. > > All is changed, changed utterly.
1,300 is very bad, but losing 1,300 to Lib Dems, Ratepayers, Independents and Residents is not the same thing as losing 1,300 to Labour. The Conservatives have still finished up 1,600 seats ahead of Labour, and with as many councillors as Labour, Lib Dems, and Greens combined. They were starting from a very high level, and were bound to come down eventually.
> @Sean_F said: > > @Thayer5 said: > > OK this is way worse, for the Tories, than I anticipated late last night. 1300 losses borders on the apocalyptic, as handily defined by Sean Fear. > > > > But Labour have, in their own way, done easily as bad. > > > > All is changed, changed utterly. > > 1,300 is very bad, but losing 1,300 to Lib Dems, Ratepayers, Independents and Residents is not the same thing as losing 1,300 to Labour. The Conservatives have still finished up 1,600 seats ahead of Labour, and with as many councillors as Labour, Lib Dems, and Greens combined. They were starting from a very high level, and were bound to come down eventually.
Another way to look at it is 1300 without even having the brexit party to compete with
> @RobD said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > https://twitter.com/MoggMentum/status/1124237686724628480 > > > > > > MoggMentum wouldn't have been pleased by this I guess. "The Lib Dems have taken control of Bath and North East Somerset Council from the Conservatives. > > The party overturned a previous Tory majority of seven and won 37 of the 59 seats available - a gain of 23. > > The Conservatives took nine seats, a loss of 24 since the last election in 2015. Labour took seven seats and six seats were claimed by independents." > > It’s wrong to view these results as endorsement of Leave or Remain. Neither is popular. > > It sure you can say that from the available data. Leavers may have simply not voted.
> These results are a disaster for the Conservatives, but they’re not apocalyptic. If they were they wouldn’t be picking up any councils at all and hardly holding any. > > As it is, they still outnumber Labour and LD councillors put together. This is a massive rebellion and huge warning shot. > > It is possibly a sign of losing middle class previously Tory swing voters in parts of the South too, which may tell in a future GE.
If you look at the period since 2007, when the SNP outpolled Labour in Scotland for the first time, I think you can see a period in which political allegiance has become much less fixed and much more prone to large swings as the electorate cast around for a solution to the problems created/revealed during the financial crash.
The old certainties are swept aside... and yet they may appear to temporarily re-establish themselves. All is changed and nothing is changed.
I feel that there is much more potential for a politician who catches the public mood to change public support in a way that wasn't possible in ~2006, say.
> MoggMentum wouldn't have been pleased by this I guess. "The Lib Dems have taken control of Bath and North East Somerset Council from the Conservatives.
>
> The party overturned a previous Tory majority of seven and won 37 of the 59 seats available - a gain of 23.
>
> The Conservatives took nine seats, a loss of 24 since the last election in 2015. Labour took seven seats and six seats were claimed by independents."
>
> It’s wrong to view these results as endorsement of Leave or Remain. Neither is popular.
>
> It sure you can say that from the available data. Leavers may have simply not voted.
> @another_richard said: > > @Thayer5 said: > > OK this is way worse, for the Tories, than I anticipated late last night. 1300 losses borders on the apocalyptic, as handily defined by Sean Fear. > > > > But Labour have, in their own way, done easily as bad. > > > > All is changed, changed utterly. > > Why do you think it is apocalyptic ? <
_____
I said "borders on", because I was relying on Sean Fear's Scale of Electoral Horror from yesterday. If I recall rightly, he reckoned Tory losses around 1500 would be a Total Disaster. This is nearly that.
I do take the point that the Tories have not lost seats to Labour, remarkably. Which is why this is an equally bad result for both main parties.
> MoggMentum wouldn't have been pleased by this I guess. "The Lib Dems have taken control of Bath and North East Somerset Council from the Conservatives.
>
> The party overturned a previous Tory majority of seven and won 37 of the 59 seats available - a gain of 23.
>
> The Conservatives took nine seats, a loss of 24 since the last election in 2015. Labour took seven seats and six seats were claimed by independents."
>
> It’s wrong to view these results as endorsement of Leave or Remain. Neither is popular.
>
> It sure you can say that from the available data. Leavers may have simply not voted.
Turnout is only marginally down.
To be fair those two statements are not necessarily contradictory; Leaver turnout down, Remainer turnout up leading to an almost wash in overall turnout.
Don't get me wrong I don't think the Euro elections will be avoided, I just wondered what would be for all intents and purposes the practical deadline, if indeed we hadn't already passed it basically.
> @Thayer5 said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @Thayer5 said: > > > OK this is way worse, for the Tories, than I anticipated late last night. 1300 losses borders on the apocalyptic, as handily defined by Sean Fear. > > > > > > But Labour have, in their own way, done easily as bad. > > > > > > All is changed, changed utterly. > > > > Why do you think it is apocalyptic ? < > > _____ > > I said "borders on", because I was relying on Sean Fear's Scale of Electoral Horror from yesterday. If I recall rightly, he reckoned Tory losses around 1500 would be a Total Disaster. This is nearly that. > > I do take the point that the Tories have not lost seats to Labour, remarkably. Which is why this is an equally bad result for both main parties.
> @Thayer5 said: > > @another_richard said: > > > > > 1995 was a total disaster for the Conservatives. > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections > > > > Take a look at that map compared with today's. < > > ___ > > Ooof. Yes, that is considerably worse. Also interesting how invisible the SNP are, in 1995 - compared to now. > > >
I vaguely recall something about some proposal that would kill nationalism stone dead?
> @paulyork64 said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @paulyork64 said: > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > @paulyork64 said: > > > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > > Con have now past 1,300 losses! > > > > > > > > > > can we put this to bed soon so we can get down to the big betting event of the weekend. Who is "H"? > > > > > > > > Surely LoD will keep that big reveal until the final episode of the final (next) series? > > > > > > I thought Jed M had said he wasn't writing another one? could have misheard. Skys rules say bet will be settled once someone is charged and found guilty. a lot of ground to cover in one episode unless they cover it with subtitles at the end like in early series. also dead heat rule applies but not sure how there can be more than one H. more than one more bad apple certainly tho. > > > > According to WP, the BBC has ordered a sixth series, which I am fairly sure is intended to be the last. > > > > The obvious way to develop the story this series is for Hastings to end up looking like he is H and his career is in ruins, then the final series sees his two trusty team members prove his innocence and unmask the real H. Just a guess. > > > > a fair guess. glad there's a series 6 but sounds like there might be a wait. I thought he was gonna switch to just doing more bodyguard after its success. I hope they resolve H for this series. Dear God there'll be more bent coppers for S6.
Just a shout to say that any who like LoD and Bodyguard should catch up with Jed's excellent series Bodies on I player. Criminally ignored when it went out on BBC 3 in the mid naughties Mercurio reckons it is his best work.
> @thecommissioner said: > The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK.
I think that's right.
This is likely to invigorate the LDs ahead of the Euros, and mean they probably grab the bulk of the pro-EU vote. It is by no means impossible that CUK fades to a couple of percent and the LDs get 15% or so.
A result like this is by no means impossible:
BRX 29 Lab 22 Con 16 LD 13 G 8 SNP/PC 5 UKIP 4 CUK 3
> @thecommissioner said: > The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK.
Umuna, Soubry and the rest of the Tiggers could have all defected to the Lib Dems if they so wished. Instead they created another party to potentially split the broad centre/remain vote.
Now I know ol' Nige has done that with UKIP but that appears rather more successfu and arguably it was needed on the right/leave axis anyway.
> @thecommissioner said: > The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK.
Indeed - there was at least a danger CUK might outpoll or poll similarly to LD in the Euros, but a number of waverers would I think be bolstered by this and stick with the LDs.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK. > > I think that's right. > > This is likely to invigorate the LDs ahead of the Euros, and mean they probably grab the bulk of the pro-EU vote. It is by no means impossible that CUK fades to a couple of percent and the LDs get 15% or so. > > A result like this is by no means impossible: > > BRX 29 > Lab 22 > Con 16 > LD 13 > G 8 > SNP/PC 5 > UKIP 4 > CUK 3 <
____
That looks about right. Maybe BRX a bit higher and the Tories a bit lower.
The CUKs were nuts not to reach some accord with the LDs. They will now disappear.
Comments
> A good day to bury bad news:
>
> https://tinyurl.com/y4cwcsyo
>
> George Osborne has announced a round of job cuts at the Evening Standard, as the London newspaper prepares to merge its print and online teams to reduce costs.
>
> The former Conservative chancellor became the newspaper’s editor in 2017 and stepped down from parliament soon after. In an email to staff he said the outlet was “facing a tough economic market with rising costs” and that the separate online and print teams would be merged to “ensure the Standard evolves to be profitable and keeps pace with our fast-changing society”.
George loves a bit of austerity.
The net result of all this will be to deepen the impasse and make it even less likely that any Brexit deal will pass the Commons in the foreseeable future.
> I know @NickPalmer was the Nick who won, but which Andy was the Andy that won. And I know @HYFUD lost, and @JohnO lost, but who was the other pber who lost?
Andy Cooke won, Icarus lost.
> > @tlg86 said:
> > A good day to bury bad news:
> >
> > https://tinyurl.com/y4cwcsyo
> >
> > George Osborne has announced a round of job cuts at the Evening Standard, as the London newspaper prepares to merge its print and online teams to reduce costs.
> >
> > The former Conservative chancellor became the newspaper’s editor in 2017 and stepped down from parliament soon after. In an email to staff he said the outlet was “facing a tough economic market with rising costs” and that the separate online and print teams would be merged to “ensure the Standard evolves to be profitable and keeps pace with our fast-changing society”.
>
> George loves a bit of austerity.
George loves a bit of austerity FOR OTHERS.
> > @numbertwelve said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1124079418979356673?s=20
> >
> > Mr Williamson, you’re no Geoffrey Howe..
> >
> > What’s he supposed to say anyway “sir, sir, she says I did something bad and I didn’t. She’s mean.”
>
> As a former whip he knows where the bodies are buried.
>
>
Less effective when you were the person who buried them.....
> A good day to bury bad news:
>
> https://tinyurl.com/y4cwcsyo
>
> George Osborne has announced a round of job cuts at the Evening Standard, as the London newspaper prepares to merge its print and online teams to reduce costs.
>
> The former Conservative chancellor became the newspaper’s editor in 2017 and stepped down from parliament soon after. In an email to staff he said the outlet was “facing a tough economic market with rising costs” and that the separate online and print teams would be merged to “ensure the Standard evolves to be profitable and keeps pace with our fast-changing society”.
No austerity for Osborne's pay packet mind
> Congratulations to @NickPalmer!
>
> Commiserations to @JohnO and @HYUFD.
+1
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Wulfrun_Phil said:
> > > In terms of the media narrative, Labour has been hurt by the fact that it had the bulk of its net losses quite early on last night after which the figure largely held steady today, whereas the Conservative losses seem to have got much worse throughout the day.
> > >
> > > The BBC as a consequence took to reporting "heavy Conservative and Labour losses" from the outset as if there was some equivalence, and lazily failed to change tack as the nuances played out.
> > >
> > > Right now we have a net Labour loss of 83 compared to a net Conservative loss of 1180 - a ratio of something like 1:14. Even allowing for 2015 being a moderately good year for the Conservatives (enough to secure only a very narrow parliamentary majority) those results are nothing like equally bad for Labour and the Conservatives.
> >
> > Yet still abysmal for any opposition party 9 years out of power
>
> It is not brilliant but still represents a 3% swing from Con to Lab compared with 2015 - and a 1% swing compared with 2017. As I pointed out earlier, Labour lost seats in the Local Elections of 1959,1960 & 1961 despite having been out of office since 1951. In May 1970 the Tories lost several hundred seats to Labour - yet went on to win the General Election just five weeks later.
Notwithstanding my earlier comment, the only comfort that Labour can take from a poor overall result is that the Conservatives' abysmal result is much worse.
> > @Charles said:
> > Actor Tony Robinson quitting Labour after 45 years over antisemitism and Brexit.
> >
> > Wasn’t he in the NEC for many years?
>
> Yes he was. Sensible labour are fleeing the lunatics in charge
Not buying it. There's been nothing in any anti-semitism stories in the past half year which would be more true now than then, so as an excuse for leaving it does not hold up. Brexit is therefore the only credible reason.
> Congratulations to @NickPalmer
>
>
>
> Godalming Binscombe Ward
>
> Anne Gray, Conservative Party candidate - 375 votes
>
> David Malcolm Hunter, Conservative Party candidate - 302 votes
>
> Nicholas Douglas Palmer, Labour Party - 467 votes - ELECTED
>
> Paul Sidney Rivers, Liberal Democrats - 729 votes - ELECTED
>
> I thought he didn’t want to win!
Comfortably elected, if on the coattails of the Liberal Democrats, who must be regretting not putting up a second candidate. At least someone has broken the PB jinx. If only HY had done a little less canvassing....
Comparing the vote totals with the number of ballot papers, there were a lot of unused single votes. Over 200 voters were prepared to back the LibDem and leave their other vote uncast, rather than opt for Labour. Some combination of antipathy to Corbyn and reluctance to support a Brexit party, at a guess.
Whereas if you’re the Tories you’re looking pretty irredeemably f’d right now.
> > @Charles said:
> > Congratulations to @NickPalmer
> >
> >
> >
> > Godalming Binscombe Ward
> >
> > Anne Gray, Conservative Party candidate - 375 votes
> >
> > David Malcolm Hunter, Conservative Party candidate - 302 votes
> >
> > Nicholas Douglas Palmer, Labour Party - 467 votes - ELECTED
> >
> > Paul Sidney Rivers, Liberal Democrats - 729 votes - ELECTED
> >
> > I thought he didn’t want to win!
>
> Comfortably elected, if on the coattails of the Liberal Democrats, who must be regretting not putting up a second candidate.
Always seems worth it - you see it so often when there is a surge and you miss out as a result...
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > @Charles said:
> > > Actor Tony Robinson quitting Labour after 45 years over antisemitism and Brexit.
> > >
> > > Wasn’t he in the NEC for many years?
> >
> > Yes he was. Sensible labour are fleeing the lunatics in charge
>
> Not buying it. There's been nothing in any anti-semitism stories in the past half year which would be more true now than then, so as an excuse for leaving it does not hold up. Brexit is therefore the only credible reason.
His statement mentions Brexit first:
https://twitter.com/Tony_Robinson/status/1124297214472400898?s=19
> Beaconsfield Tories have seen the light, the ERG lot are more likely to be deselected now.
Excellent news.
> > @Charles said:
> > Congratulations to @NickPalmer
> >
> >
> >
> > Godalming Binscombe Ward
> >
> > Anne Gray, Conservative Party candidate - 375 votes
> >
> > David Malcolm Hunter, Conservative Party candidate - 302 votes
> >
> > Nicholas Douglas Palmer, Labour Party - 467 votes - ELECTED
> >
> > Paul Sidney Rivers, Liberal Democrats - 729 votes - ELECTED
> >
> > I thought he didn’t want to win!
>
> Comfortably elected, if on the coattails of the Liberal Democrats, who must be regretting not putting up a second candidate. At least someone has broken the PB jinx. If only HY had done a little less canvassing....
If I had not done any canvassing we may have lost the District seat too and I would have lost by even more (we won it by less than 100 and lost the other District seat to the LDs)
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > @Charles said:
> > > > Actor Tony Robinson quitting Labour after 45 years over antisemitism and Brexit.
> > > >
> > > > Wasn’t he in the NEC for many years?
> > >
> > > Yes he was. Sensible labour are fleeing the lunatics in charge
> >
> > Not buying it. There's been nothing in any anti-semitism stories in the past half year which would be more true now than then, so as an excuse for leaving it does not hold up. Brexit is therefore the only credible reason.
>
> His statement mentions Brexit first:
>
> https://twitter.com/Tony_Robinson/status/1124297214472400898?s=19
Yes, which makes sense, I just don't believe him about the antisemitism. Basically if it were not for Brexit he could look past what either he didn't think was an antisemitism problem before, or not a problem that could not be fixed.
Self-aggrandising much?
> Seems to me that these elections and the EP ones to come will provide evidence to convince all sides in both the big parties that they are right. The ,locals show a big majority for "remain" parties (including Labour) and both sides of the argument in Labour have already claimed that the result bears out their analysis. It's likely that the EP election will show a much better performance for "leave" parties and both sides of the argument in the Tory Party will claim that the result bears out their analysis.
>
> The net result of all this will be to deepen the impasse and make it even less likely that any Brexit deal will pass the Commons in the foreseeable future.
And the longer we don't Brexit the greater will be the Brexit Party advance
> https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1124079418979356673
>
>
>
> Snort!
>
> Self-aggrandising much?
From being savaged by a dead sheep to being savaged by Private Pike!
> Personally if I was either of the main two parties I’d rather be labour. Yes there’s a lot of Brexit navel gazing to come but IF you can get it done and dusted and move the public conversation on to things like transport, wages, housing, social security, the NHS you’ve got a raft of policies which I think do chime with the public. Labour really, really need Brexit to be sorted or nearly sorted by 2022 so it’s much less of an issue.
>
> Whereas if you’re the Tories you’re looking pretty irredeemably f’d right now.
>
>
It’s a massive political failing on the Tories’ part that they haven’t managed to ally Brexit with any sort of wider and positive policy agenda.
Most of the ultras cling to a negative prospectus of deliberately self-inflicted chaos that offers nothing but supposedly “temporary” disruption to the person in the street. None of the leading Brexiters have offered any wider vision; most of them have run away at the first sign of a tough decision. Boris has been in hiding. May has deliberately said as little as possible about anything.
No wonder that Brexit is losing its appeal, particularly among working age voters.
I just don't see how they carry a majority of the House with them. Even party loyalists seem like they will not accept the kind of compromises that would be needed, not enough of them.
Add to that the issue of time - the EP elections are happening now, no getting away from it, so where's the incentive to sort something in advance? No deal Tories will want to see how well the BP do to bolster their arguments for harder Brexits, and Labour will no doubt want to see if they can come top or at least how much more of the vote they get than the Tories so they know how strong a position they are in, relatively speaking.
After all, even here the same arguments about there being no options but deal or referendum, but wait no there is if we go back with a deal etc etc, have no changed - it seems optimistic to think it will in parliament.
Bedford
Cheshire East
East Devon
Mansfield
Mid Sussex
Waverley
West Berkshire
York
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/ceeqy0e9894t/england-local-elections-2019
> https://twitter.com/MoggMentum/status/1124237686724628480?s=20
If you are genuinely pissed off by May's failure to come up with anything that feels remotely like the Brexit you voted for, and are unwilling to vote for a party which openly consorts with modern day neo-fascists, you didn't have a lot of choice.
That I think explains much of the remarkable resurgence in the votes for independents, representing a more effective means of stymieing the other parties than spoiling a ballot paper.
On 23rd May, that choice will however be there.
> > @numbertwelve said:
> > Personally if I was either of the main two parties I’d rather be labour. Yes there’s a lot of Brexit navel gazing to come but IF you can get it done and dusted and move the public conversation on to things like transport, wages, housing, social security, the NHS you’ve got a raft of policies which I think do chime with the public. Labour really, really need Brexit to be sorted or nearly sorted by 2022 so it’s much less of an issue.
> >
> > Whereas if you’re the Tories you’re looking pretty irredeemably f’d right now.
> >
> >
>
> It’s a massive political failing on the Tories’ part that they haven’t managed to ally Brexit with any sort of wider and positive policy agenda.
>
> Most of the ultras cling to a negative prospectus of deliberately self-inflicted chaos that offers nothing but supposedly “temporary” disruption to the person in the street. None of the leading Brexiters have offered any wider vision; most of them have run away at the first sign of a tough decision. Boris has been in hiding. May has deliberately said as little as possible about anything.
>
> No wonder that Brexit is losing its appeal, particularly among working age voters.
>
I’ve always been amazed that May has never been able to clearly say “We want a Brexit that does X so that we can do Y”. Yes I know there’s been the whole money/borders/laws thing but that’s really weak and whingy stuff. She had a chance to set out a positive prospectus on Brexit and failed. What’s even worse is that the Brexiteers don’t have a clue what they want either. No wonder people are sick of it.
Sounds like a good day.
> > @Stereotomy said:
> > > @dyedwoolie said:
> >
> > > Change will be delighted at the independent surge.
> >
> >
> >
> > Change future lies with merging with the Lib Dems
> >
> > Why would the Lib Dems have them? They're not liberals.
> >
> > And if they wanted to join the Lib Dems why wouldn't they have done that in the first place?
>
> How many LibDems are actually liberal though? Was Tim Farron for example? Like most of our parties, it is a broad church, with a mix of liberals, social democrats, pragmatists, centre lefts, centre rights, environmentalists.
Farron was. That's why he was baffled that people cared about his stance on homosexuallity given that he wasn't going to impose it on anyone else.
> What is the practical deadline for sorting something out if calling off the European elections? I'm sure in theory the deadline could be all the way up to very late on the Wednesday night but surely the practical reality will mean that there is some effective cut-off before then that means we're essentially committed regardless.
Given the vote is not counted until Sunday (who has elections on Sundays anyway?), couldn't it also be cancelled on the Saturday?
I was very pleased with how it went.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @Stereotomy said:
> > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > >
> > > > Change will be delighted at the independent surge.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Change future lies with merging with the Lib Dems
> > >
> > > Why would the Lib Dems have them? They're not liberals.
> > >
> > > And if they wanted to join the Lib Dems why wouldn't they have done that in the first place?
> >
> > How many LibDems are actually liberal though? Was Tim Farron for example? Like most of our parties, it is a broad church, with a mix of liberals, social democrats, pragmatists, centre lefts, centre rights, environmentalists.
>
> Farron was. That's why he was baffled that people cared about his stance on homosexuallity given that he wasn't going to impose it on anyone else.
That doesn't really wash. If it were that simple he could have told the truth about his stance and defend it on that basis rather than lie about it and be regretful afterwards.
Oh, Tories lose 1,265 seats
> Evening, all. Have I missed anything in the last three hours?
>
> Oh, Tories lose 1,265 seats
You missed ten, for sure. -1275
> What is the practical deadline for sorting something out if calling off the European elections? I'm sure in theory the deadline could be all the way up to very late on the Wednesday night but surely the practical reality will mean that there is some effective cut-off before then that means we're essentially committed regardless.
Even if by a miracle Labour and Tories do a deal which gets passed in the Commons the WAIB will take weeks to get through as it needs to go into the HOL.
Mays current thinking is not avoiding EU elections but the UK MEPs not taking their seats .
He might well have thought that anti-Semitism was a problem, but leaving would do nothing to help combat it. But when combined with Brexit and the absolute shower that lead the party, it became enough to overcome the stiction.
Or he may have finally realised that the leadership had no intention to 'fix' the anti-Semitism problem, because they are the problem.
The yellow peril and socialist hordes have invaded four wards of my home town, though. Which I’m not happy about.
> > @solarflare said:
> > What is the practical deadline for sorting something out if calling off the European elections? I'm sure in theory the deadline could be all the way up to very late on the Wednesday night but surely the practical reality will mean that there is some effective cut-off before then that means we're essentially committed regardless.
>
> Given the vote is not counted until Sunday (who has elections on Sundays anyway?), couldn't it also be cancelled on the Saturday?
It isn’t going to be cancelled, so it’s rather academic. It would also be bad form to cancel once votes start being cast, which in the case of PVs won’t be long now. The one thing that perhaps has changed is that Labour might not be quite so keen to have the elections as it was.
Dave Hodgson (Lib Dem) – 17,596 (35.2%)
Gianni Carofano (Conservative) – 15,778 (31.6%)
Jenni Jackson (Labour and Co-op) – 9,677 (19.4%)
Adrian Spurrell (The Green Party) – 3,239 (6.5%)
Adrian John Haynes (UKIP) – 2,627 (5.3%)
> > @RobD said:
> > > @solarflare said:
> > > What is the practical deadline for sorting something out if calling off the European elections? I'm sure in theory the deadline could be all the way up to very late on the Wednesday night but surely the practical reality will mean that there is some effective cut-off before then that means we're essentially committed regardless.
> >
> > Given the vote is not counted until Sunday (who has elections on Sundays anyway?), couldn't it also be cancelled on the Saturday?
>
> It isn’t going to be cancelled, so it’s rather academic. It would also be bad form to cancel once votes start being cast, which in the case of PVs won’t be long now. The one thing that perhaps has changed is that Labour might not be quite so keen to have the elections as it was.
>
Why would it be bad form? If the MEPs aren't going to take their seats, the votes are irrelevant.
I’m not sure whether that’s absolutely impossible, or just unrealistic given there isn’t actually an agreement yet and the prospect of both Houses playing silly buggers with the Bill. But I don’t see it happening.
On the “Labour has a bad night” front.. I’m absolutely with those who think their failure to advance in face of such a Tory collapse is very bad. Sure, not comparable seat losses, but they should have been recovering strongly from Ed’s nadir in 2015.
For both main parties to move from c40% each in 2017 to a PNS of 28 now is pretty good going all round...
You give a lot to your local community and I hope you’re back again soon.
> Con have now past 1,300 losses!
tis just a flesh wound...
> > @IanB2 said:
>
> > > @numbertwelve said:
>
> > > Personally if I was either of the main two parties I’d rather be labour. Yes there’s a lot of Brexit navel gazing to come but IF you can get it done and dusted and move the public conversation on to things like transport, wages, housing, social security, the NHS you’ve got a raft of policies which I think do chime with the public. Labour really, really need Brexit to be sorted or nearly sorted by 2022 so it’s much less of an issue.
>
> > >
>
> > > Whereas if you’re the Tories you’re looking pretty irredeemably f’d right now.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > It’s a massive political failing on the Tories’ part that they haven’t managed to ally Brexit with any sort of wider and positive policy agenda.
>
> >
>
> > Most of the ultras cling to a negative prospectus of deliberately self-inflicted chaos that offers nothing but supposedly “temporary” disruption to the person in the street. None of the leading Brexiters have offered any wider vision; most of them have run away at the first sign of a tough decision. Boris has been in hiding. May has deliberately said as little as possible about anything.
>
> >
>
> > No wonder that Brexit is losing its appeal, particularly among working age voters.
>
> >
>
>
>
> I’ve always been amazed that May has never been able to clearly say “We want a Brexit that does X so that we can do Y”. Yes I know there’s been the whole money/borders/laws thing but that’s really weak and whingy stuff. She had a chance to set out a positive prospectus on Brexit and failed. What’s even worse is that the Brexiteers don’t have a clue what they want either. No wonder people are sick of it.
>
> That’s because there are no benefits from Brexit. Nil, zip, nada. Never were, never will be.
The only benefits come from being ruled by Brussels, I suppose?
> https://twitter.com/MoggMentum/status/1124237686724628480?s=20
MoggMentum wouldn't have been pleased by this I guess. "The Lib Dems have taken control of Bath and North East Somerset Council from the Conservatives.
The party overturned a previous Tory majority of seven and won 37 of the 59 seats available - a gain of 23.
The Conservatives took nine seats, a loss of 24 since the last election in 2015. Labour took seven seats and six seats were claimed by independents."
> > @IanB2 said:
>
> > > @numbertwelve said:
>
> > > Personally if I was either of the main two parties I’d rather be labour. Yes there’s a lot of Brexit navel gazing to come but IF you can get it done and dusted and move the public conversation on to things like transport, wages, housing, social security, the NHS you’ve got a raft of policies which I think do chime with the public. Labour really, really need Brexit to be sorted or nearly sorted by 2022 so it’s much less of an issue.
>
> > >
>
> > > Whereas if you’re the Tories you’re looking pretty irredeemably f’d right now.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > It’s a massive political failing on the Tories’ part that they haven’t managed to ally Brexit with any sort of wider and positive policy agenda.
>
> >
>
> > Most of the ultras cling to a negative prospectus of deliberately self-inflicted chaos that offers nothing but supposedly “temporary” disruption to the person in the street. None of the leading Brexiters have offered any wider vision; most of them have run away at the first sign of a tough decision. Boris has been in hiding. May has deliberately said as little as possible about anything.
>
> >
>
> > No wonder that Brexit is losing its appeal, particularly among working age voters.
>
> >
>
>
>
> I’ve always been amazed that May has never been able to clearly say “We want a Brexit that does X so that we can do Y”. Yes I know there’s been the whole money/borders/laws thing but that’s really weak and whingy stuff. She had a chance to set out a positive prospectus on Brexit and failed. What’s even worse is that the Brexiteers don’t have a clue what they want either. No wonder people are sick of it.
>
> That’s because there are no benefits from Brexit. Nil, zip, nada. Never were, never will be.
It upsets the right people.
> Yes, which makes sense, I just don't believe him about the antisemitism. Basically if it were not for Brexit he could look past what either he didn't think was an antisemitism problem before, or not a problem that could not be fixed.
>
> People can have more than one motive for an action, and there can be more than a little stiction involved. He has been in the Labour movement for over four decades, and it must be absolutely gutting to leave anything after so long - especially as you might lose long-standing friends in the process. For many people, their party allegiance is part of their identity.
>
> He might well have thought that anti-Semitism was a problem, but leaving would do nothing to help combat it. But when combined with Brexit and the absolute shower that lead the party, it became enough to overcome the stiction.
>
> Or he may have finally realised that the leadership had no intention to 'fix' the anti-Semitism problem, because they are the problem.
I still don't buy it. People have been saying Corbyn was a problem in that regard for years. Brexit is his tipping point, that's fine, but crying about the anti-semitism being an issue now is weak.
After all, the reason for the Tory massively greater losses is almost all to do with the elections taking place in locations excluding almost all of Labour’s heartlands and the Tories defending the very high water mark of 2015.
Until a few weeks’ ago, both major parties were at level pegging in the polls around the 38-40% mark. The last NEV I saw for yesterday’s elections put both of them still level pegging at 28% apiece.
Therefore, despite the hugely greater Tory losses, both main parties have retreated by a similar amount in terms of votes.
In terms of ‘surprise’, Labour’s fall is the *news*, since the Tory setback was already expected and already showing in the most recent polls.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Con have now past 1,300 losses!
>
> tis just a flesh wound...
It effectively reverses the gains of 2015 and 2011 and most of the gains of 2007.
But the Conservatives have done better than in 2003 or looking further back 1991.
Lots of regional variations over that period.
> Con have now past 1,300 losses!
can we put this to bed soon so we can get down to the big betting event of the weekend. Who is "H"?
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Con have now past 1,300 losses!
>
> can we put this to bed soon so we can get down to the big betting event of the weekend. Who is "H"?
Surely LoD will keep that big reveal until the final episode of the final (next) series?
But Labour have, in their own way, done easily as bad.
All is changed, changed utterly.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/MoggMentum/status/1124237686724628480?s=20
>
> If you are genuinely pissed off by May's failure to come up with anything that feels remotely like the Brexit you voted for, and are unwilling to vote for a party which openly consorts with modern day neo-fascists, you didn't have a lot of choice.
>
> That I think explains much of the remarkable resurgence in the votes for independents, representing a more effective means of stymieing the other parties than spoiling a ballot paper.
>
> On 23rd May, that choice will however be there.
As a lifetime Conservative voter, I was going to abstain from voting on the 23rd, but the deranged crowing from the people's vote mob that today's result is somehow a vote for remain has convinced me of the need to send an unequivocal message. Deliver. Brexit. Brexit Party on May 23rd it is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsuRgxsd6bk
> So, my prediction the locals wouldn’t be as bad as expected looks a bit..wrong.
The Conservative losses are coming in the South.
Personally I think it a good thing if some complacent Conservative councils get swept out.
It will hopefully encourage the Conservatives into some deeper thinking on issues such as housing, debt and aspiration.
Funny that.
> > @paulyork64 said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > Con have now past 1,300 losses!
> >
> > can we put this to bed soon so we can get down to the big betting event of the weekend. Who is "H"?
>
> Surely LoD will keep that big reveal until the final episode of the final (next) series?
I thought Jed M had said he wasn't writing another one? could have misheard. Skys rules say bet will be settled once someone is charged and found guilty. a lot of ground to cover in one episode unless they cover it with subtitles at the end like in early series. also dead heat rule applies but not sure how there can be more than one H. more than one more bad apple certainly tho.
That’s fair.
> OK this is way worse, for the Tories, than I anticipated late last night. 1300 losses borders on the apocalyptic, as handily defined by Sean Fear.
>
> But Labour have, in their own way, done easily as bad.
>
> All is changed, changed utterly.
Why do you think it is apocalyptic ?
> > @GIN1138 said:
>
> > Con have now past 1,300 losses!
>
>
>
> can we put this to bed soon so we can get down to the big betting event of the weekend. Who is "H"?
>
> H is a singer from the legendary band Steps, his official name is Ian Watkins.
stop tempting me with that like button.
These results are a disaster for the Conservatives, but they’re not apocalyptic. If they were they wouldn’t be picking up any councils at all and hardly holding any.
As it is, they still outnumber Labour and LD councillors put together. This is a massive rebellion and huge warning shot.
It is possibly a sign of losing middle class previously Tory swing voters in parts of the South too, which may tell in a future GE.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @paulyork64 said:
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > Con have now past 1,300 losses!
> > >
> > > can we put this to bed soon so we can get down to the big betting event of the weekend. Who is "H"?
> >
> > Surely LoD will keep that big reveal until the final episode of the final (next) series?
>
> I thought Jed M had said he wasn't writing another one? could have misheard. Skys rules say bet will be settled once someone is charged and found guilty. a lot of ground to cover in one episode unless they cover it with subtitles at the end like in early series. also dead heat rule applies but not sure how there can be more than one H. more than one more bad apple certainly tho.
According to WP, the BBC has ordered a sixth series, which I am fairly sure is intended to be the last.
The obvious way to develop the story this series is for Hastings to end up looking like he is H and his career is in ruins, then the final series sees his two trusty team members prove his innocence and unmask the real H. Just a guess.
> OK this is way worse, for the Tories, than I anticipated late last night. 1300 losses borders on the apocalyptic, as handily defined by Sean Fear.
>
>
>
> But Labour have, in their own way, done easily as bad.
>
>
>
> All is changed, changed utterly.
>
> Steady. You can overstate the case.
>
> These results are a disaster for the Conservatives, but they’re not apocalyptic. If they were they wouldn’t be picking up any councils at all and hardly holding any.
>
> As it is, they still outnumber Labour and LD councillors put together. This is a massive rebellion and huge warning shot.
>
> It is possibly a sign of losing middle class previously Tory swing voters in parts of the South too, which may tell in a future GE.
Its not apocalyptic nor is it even a disaster.
But it should be a much needed wake up call for Conservatives in the South.
> OK this is way worse, for the Tories, than I anticipated late last night. 1300 losses borders on the apocalyptic, as handily defined by Sean Fear.
>
>
>
> But Labour have, in their own way, done easily as bad.
>
>
>
> All is changed, changed utterly.
>
> Steady. You can overstate the case.
>
> These results are a disaster for the Conservatives, but they’re not apocalyptic. If they were they wouldn’t be picking up any councils at all and hardly holding any.
>
> As it is, they still outnumber Labour and LD councillors put together. This is a massive rebellion and huge warning shot.
>
> It is possibly a sign of losing middle class previously Tory swing voters in parts of the South too, which may tell in a future GE.
It’s only not a disaster for the Tories because the Labour vote is also down and most seats are Labour/Tory contests. If either of them had scored an NEV of 28% with the other ten per cent higher, they’d be looking at meltdown. Yet our voting system continues to prop both the large parties up and with a combined NEV of not much above half the vote they still walk away with most of the seats between them.
> > @paulyork64 said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @paulyork64 said:
> > > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > > Con have now past 1,300 losses!
> > > >
> > > > can we put this to bed soon so we can get down to the big betting event of the weekend. Who is "H"?
> > >
> > > Surely LoD will keep that big reveal until the final episode of the final (next) series?
> >
> > I thought Jed M had said he wasn't writing another one? could have misheard. Skys rules say bet will be settled once someone is charged and found guilty. a lot of ground to cover in one episode unless they cover it with subtitles at the end like in early series. also dead heat rule applies but not sure how there can be more than one H. more than one more bad apple certainly tho.
>
> According to WP, the BBC has ordered a sixth series, which I am fairly sure is intended to be the last.
>
> The obvious way to develop the story this series is for Hastings to end up looking like he is H and his career is in ruins, then the final series sees his two trusty team members prove his innocence and unmask the real H. Just a guess.
>
a fair guess. glad there's a series 6 but sounds like there might be a wait. I thought he was gonna switch to just doing more bodyguard after its success. I hope they resolve H for this series. Dear God there'll be more bent coppers for S6.
And more evidence comes forward regarding Corbyn and his ilk wrt anti-Semitism. It might easily be that the weight of evidence has got too much for him - as it should for all Labour members with a conscience.
But my point remains: people often (usually?) have multiple motives for doing something.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @paulyork64 said:
> > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > @paulyork64 said:
> > > > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > > > Con have now past 1,300 losses!
> > > > >
> > > > > can we put this to bed soon so we can get down to the big betting event of the weekend. Who is "H"?
> > > >
> > > > Surely LoD will keep that big reveal until the final episode of the final (next) series?
> > >
> > > I thought Jed M had said he wasn't writing another one? could have misheard. Skys rules say bet will be settled once someone is charged and found guilty. a lot of ground to cover in one episode unless they cover it with subtitles at the end like in early series. also dead heat rule applies but not sure how there can be more than one H. more than one more bad apple certainly tho.
> >
> > According to WP, the BBC has ordered a sixth series, which I am fairly sure is intended to be the last.
> >
> > The obvious way to develop the story this series is for Hastings to end up looking like he is H and his career is in ruins, then the final series sees his two trusty team members prove his innocence and unmask the real H. Just a guess.
> >
>
> a fair guess. glad there's a series 6 but sounds like there might be a wait. I thought he was gonna switch to just doing more bodyguard after its success. I hope they resolve H for this series. Dear God there'll be more bent coppers for S6.
No way the storyline running through the multiple series will be revealed before the end!
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > So, my prediction the locals wouldn’t be as bad as expected looks a bit..wrong.
>
> The Conservative losses are coming in the South.
>
> Personally I think it a good thing if some complacent Conservative councils get swept out.
>
> It will hopefully encourage the Conservatives into some deeper thinking on issues such as housing, debt and aspiration.
It will do no harm at all for lots of Conservative councils to now have a credible opposition.
> That’s because there are no benefits from Brexit. Nil, zip, nada. Never were, never will be.
Depends how you look at it. The benefits are imaginary but if millions of people believe themselves to be a little bit more 'sovereign' as a consequence of it happening and this genuinely makes them feel happier and more empowered and important then that is no shabby thing.
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > So, my prediction the locals wouldn’t be as bad as expected looks a bit..wrong.
> >
> > The Conservative losses are coming in the South.
> >
> > Personally I think it a good thing if some complacent Conservative councils get swept out.
> >
> > It will hopefully encourage the Conservatives into some deeper thinking on issues such as housing, debt and aspiration.
>
> It will do no harm at all for lots of Conservative councils to now have a credible opposition.
Indeed.
Hopefully the likes of Nick Palmer can make an issue of housing affordability.
The Conservatives have lapsed into being the party of smug haves.
> OK this is way worse, for the Tories, than I anticipated late last night. 1300 losses borders on the apocalyptic, as handily defined by Sean Fear.
>
> But Labour have, in their own way, done easily as bad.
>
> All is changed, changed utterly.
1,300 is very bad, but losing 1,300 to Lib Dems, Ratepayers, Independents and Residents is not the same thing as losing 1,300 to Labour. The Conservatives have still finished up 1,600 seats ahead of Labour, and with as many councillors as Labour, Lib Dems, and Greens combined. They were starting from a very high level, and were bound to come down eventually.
> > @Thayer5 said:
> > OK this is way worse, for the Tories, than I anticipated late last night. 1300 losses borders on the apocalyptic, as handily defined by Sean Fear.
> >
> > But Labour have, in their own way, done easily as bad.
> >
> > All is changed, changed utterly.
>
> 1,300 is very bad, but losing 1,300 to Lib Dems, Ratepayers, Independents and Residents is not the same thing as losing 1,300 to Labour. The Conservatives have still finished up 1,600 seats ahead of Labour, and with as many councillors as Labour, Lib Dems, and Greens combined. They were starting from a very high level, and were bound to come down eventually.
Another way to look at it is 1300 without even having the brexit party to compete with
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/MoggMentum/status/1124237686724628480
>
>
>
>
>
> MoggMentum wouldn't have been pleased by this I guess. "The Lib Dems have taken control of Bath and North East Somerset Council from the Conservatives.
>
> The party overturned a previous Tory majority of seven and won 37 of the 59 seats available - a gain of 23.
>
> The Conservatives took nine seats, a loss of 24 since the last election in 2015. Labour took seven seats and six seats were claimed by independents."
>
> It’s wrong to view these results as endorsement of Leave or Remain. Neither is popular.
>
> It sure you can say that from the available data. Leavers may have simply not voted.
Turnout is only marginally down.
> These results are a disaster for the Conservatives, but they’re not apocalyptic. If they were they wouldn’t be picking up any councils at all and hardly holding any.
>
> As it is, they still outnumber Labour and LD councillors put together. This is a massive rebellion and huge warning shot.
>
> It is possibly a sign of losing middle class previously Tory swing voters in parts of the South too, which may tell in a future GE.
If you look at the period since 2007, when the SNP outpolled Labour in Scotland for the first time, I think you can see a period in which political allegiance has become much less fixed and much more prone to large swings as the electorate cast around for a solution to the problems created/revealed during the financial crash.
The old certainties are swept aside... and yet they may appear to temporarily re-establish themselves. All is changed and nothing is changed.
I feel that there is much more potential for a politician who catches the public mood to change public support in a way that wasn't possible in ~2006, say.
> > @Thayer5 said:
> > OK this is way worse, for the Tories, than I anticipated late last night. 1300 losses borders on the apocalyptic, as handily defined by Sean Fear.
> >
> > But Labour have, in their own way, done easily as bad.
> >
> > All is changed, changed utterly.
>
> Why do you think it is apocalyptic ? <
_____
I said "borders on", because I was relying on Sean Fear's Scale of Electoral Horror from yesterday. If I recall rightly, he reckoned Tory losses around 1500 would be a Total Disaster. This is nearly that.
I do take the point that the Tories have not lost seats to Labour, remarkably. Which is why this is an equally bad result for both main parties.
Hard to tell.
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @Thayer5 said:
> > > OK this is way worse, for the Tories, than I anticipated late last night. 1300 losses borders on the apocalyptic, as handily defined by Sean Fear.
> > >
> > > But Labour have, in their own way, done easily as bad.
> > >
> > > All is changed, changed utterly.
> >
> > Why do you think it is apocalyptic ? <
>
> _____
>
> I said "borders on", because I was relying on Sean Fear's Scale of Electoral Horror from yesterday. If I recall rightly, he reckoned Tory losses around 1500 would be a Total Disaster. This is nearly that.
>
> I do take the point that the Tories have not lost seats to Labour, remarkably. Which is why this is an equally bad result for both main parties.
1995 was a total disaster for the Conservatives.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
Take a look at that map compared with today's.
>
> 1995 was a total disaster for the Conservatives.
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
>
> Take a look at that map compared with today's. <
___
Ooof. Yes, that is considerably worse. Also interesting how invisible the SNP are, in 1995 - compared to now.
> > @another_richard said:
>
> >
> > 1995 was a total disaster for the Conservatives.
> >
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
> >
> > Take a look at that map compared with today's. <
>
> ___
>
> Ooof. Yes, that is considerably worse. Also interesting how invisible the SNP are, in 1995 - compared to now.
>
>
>
I vaguely recall something about some proposal that would kill nationalism stone dead?
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @paulyork64 said:
> > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > @paulyork64 said:
> > > > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > > > Con have now past 1,300 losses!
> > > > >
> > > > > can we put this to bed soon so we can get down to the big betting event of the weekend. Who is "H"?
> > > >
> > > > Surely LoD will keep that big reveal until the final episode of the final (next) series?
> > >
> > > I thought Jed M had said he wasn't writing another one? could have misheard. Skys rules say bet will be settled once someone is charged and found guilty. a lot of ground to cover in one episode unless they cover it with subtitles at the end like in early series. also dead heat rule applies but not sure how there can be more than one H. more than one more bad apple certainly tho.
> >
> > According to WP, the BBC has ordered a sixth series, which I am fairly sure is intended to be the last.
> >
> > The obvious way to develop the story this series is for Hastings to end up looking like he is H and his career is in ruins, then the final series sees his two trusty team members prove his innocence and unmask the real H. Just a guess.
> >
>
> a fair guess. glad there's a series 6 but sounds like there might be a wait. I thought he was gonna switch to just doing more bodyguard after its success. I hope they resolve H for this series. Dear God there'll be more bent coppers for S6.
Just a shout to say that any who like LoD and Bodyguard should catch up with Jed's excellent series Bodies on I player.
Criminally ignored when it went out on BBC 3 in the mid naughties
Mercurio reckons it is his best work.
> The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK.
I think that's right.
This is likely to invigorate the LDs ahead of the Euros, and mean they probably grab the bulk of the pro-EU vote. It is by no means impossible that CUK fades to a couple of percent and the LDs get 15% or so.
A result like this is by no means impossible:
BRX 29
Lab 22
Con 16
LD 13
G 8
SNP/PC 5
UKIP 4
CUK 3
> The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK.
Umuna, Soubry and the rest of the Tiggers could have all defected to the Lib Dems if they so wished. Instead they created another party to potentially split the broad centre/remain vote.
Now I know ol' Nige has done that with UKIP but that appears rather more successfu and arguably it was needed on the right/leave axis anyway.
> The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK.
Indeed - there was at least a danger CUK might outpoll or poll similarly to LD in the Euros, but a number of waverers would I think be bolstered by this and stick with the LDs.
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK.
>
> I think that's right.
>
> This is likely to invigorate the LDs ahead of the Euros, and mean they probably grab the bulk of the pro-EU vote. It is by no means impossible that CUK fades to a couple of percent and the LDs get 15% or so.
>
> A result like this is by no means impossible:
>
> BRX 29
> Lab 22
> Con 16
> LD 13
> G 8
> SNP/PC 5
> UKIP 4
> CUK 3 <
____
That looks about right. Maybe BRX a bit higher and the Tories a bit lower.
The CUKs were nuts not to reach some accord with the LDs. They will now disappear.