> @The_Taxman said: > > > @algarkirk said: > > > @RobD said: > > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > The Brexiters are now clutching at the smallest straws from today. Bless. > > > > > > Let's see what happens in three weeks > > > > The majority of votes when turned into projected national share went to parties that do not have 'remain' as their policy. I don't think that does much to support the thesis that we were voting to support Brexit, but it certainly does not support the idea that we were voting against it. I think any straw clutching will have to wait for the - undoubtedly inconclusive - outcome of the EU elections. > > I voted LD because I am opposed to Brexit. I know 3 others who did the same. It is true we are middle class graduates who voted Remain but we all normally vote Tory. I can only speak for myself but I am inclined to vote Change UK in the European elections as I believe this approach is inferring I oppose Brexit but I don't want the UK to join the Euro, Schengen etc.
___________________________________
Have any UK parties ever come out for the Euro and Schengen and the US of E which they clearly imply?
Individuals have supported a federal Europe, ranging from Rachel Johnson to Jeremy Clarkson, but I've never heard a political party use words like those of Guy Verhofstadt.
> @thecommissioner said: > The Tory/Labour duopoly now finds itself under threat. > > It's reaching the point where it's in their mutual best interests to get Brexit done in some vaguely palatable way to enough of both sets of voters and hope that 2022 is far enough away for their deal to be forgotten/marginalised.
But if Corbyn assists Brexit in getting over the line, Labour's vote share will drop by ten points minimum - and it won't recover by the GE.
I think Faisal's point (which he doesn't make very well) is that the Conservatives did worse, the Remain-ier the seat. Going full ERG doesn't really help them in these Remain-y seats. And the Conservative Party actually did reasonably well in Leave seats, which suggests that their approach has not yet hurt them with Leave voters.
So, it's a conundrum for the Tories that I suggest can be best solved by...
We've held the mayoralty in Bedford and have more than 35% of the councillors - which means this is a LD gain. With elected mayors 65% of councillors are required to overrule a decision.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @not_on_fire said: > > > Faisal is on the money > > > > > > https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1124339705091428354 > > > > To say that a mid term government might lose its majority isn't revelatory. > > > > For example in 2012 the Conservatives were 7% behind Labour: > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_Kingdom_local_elections > > > > Remember EICIPM > > I think Faisal's point (which he doesn't make very well) is that the Conservatives did worse, the Remain-ier the seat. Going full ERG doesn't really help them in these Remain-y seats. And the Conservative Party actually did reasonably well in Leave seats, which suggests that their approach has not yet hurt them with Leave voters. > > So, it's a conundrum for the Tories that I suggest can be best solved by... > > (da da) > > Actually passing the Withdrawal Agreement. >
Obviously. If they can. It's not going to be easy unless those easy going DUP chaps show the flexibility that they are famous for. Ahem.
> @MikeSmithson said: > We've held the mayoralty in Bedford and have more than 35% of the councillors - which means this is a LD gain. With elected mayors 65% of councillors are required to overrule a decision.
Yet the LDs are not a major force there at parliamentary elections.
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > The Tory/Labour duopoly now finds itself under threat. > > > > It's reaching the point where it's in their mutual best interests to get Brexit done in some vaguely palatable way to enough of both sets of voters and hope that 2022 is far enough away for their deal to be forgotten/marginalised. > > But if Corbyn assists Brexit in getting over the line, Labour's vote share will drop by ten points minimum - and it won't recover by the GE.
It is in Corbyn's interest to let the Euro elections happen. It is likely to be far worse for the Tories than Labour. Quite possibly the Tories worst ever national percentage.
Meanwhile .. rumours abound that Mike Smithson is tonight painting the town deepest yellow peril as the Bedford mayoralty remains comfortably in the LibDem bar chart column.
> @justin124 said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > > Lol @ the predictions of CUK demise and LD surge. Based on a protest vote at which CUK didn't stand and LD got 1% better than 2017. You think those indies etc are gonna pile on old uncle Vince now? Lol > > > > > > > > > > Well, I think most people on here have been stating that the CUKs are more "never will bes" rather than "has beens" for some time. > > > > > > > > > > And I think the prediction is simply that if you're a EUrophile and you want to vote for the EUlover most likely to win in the Euros then that now looks like the LDs. > > > > > > > > > > It doesn't look like an outrageous suggestion to me. > > > > > > > > The similarly good performance of the similarly named independents in these locals suggests to me TIG stand good chance of equaling the Lib Dems who benefitted yesterday from being present. They are still not well liked, as can be seen by their failure to breach 20% against the worst red blue line up since 1905 > > > > > > Support for Independents is usually based on very local factors and particular personalities. They are very much an assorted mixture of people with a wide range of backgrounds - often with no previous political involvement at all. It has always struck me that the idea of an Independent Group is a contradiction in terms anway! > > > > They can rise and fall very rapidly (eg the Boston by-pass party) > > Indeed so - though in some areas being an Independent was - and to some extent continues to be - the norm. I grew up in Pembrokeshire - a county where all the local authorities were dominated by Independents. When I first became involved in politics in the early 1970s, I recall canvassing for Labour candidates for the County and District Councils and being met with many puzzled looks on doorsteps. ' What has politics got to do with Local Govt?' was a common query. It was simply not part of the culture, and whilst things have changed a little over the years, it remains the case that the majority of Councillors in such areas do not wear party labels. Candidates who do so are generally at a distinct disadvantage - and are often given support as individuals in spite of - rather than because of - their party labels.
As an occasional visitor to Pembrokeshire I find that eminently believable, and heart-warming.
I think people are drawing the wrong conclusions - this election doesnt suggest much is likely to change.
No party looks remotely close to getting a parliamentary majority, let alone the sort of majority they need in their divided parties (at least 30 preferably 50+ to get things done).
The only exception I can think of would be Labour getting 28-30% with the Tories and Brexit party splitting their vote and both within the 15-25% band. This would produce some weird and unpredictable results, but if the Tories can stay above 25% or less likely Brexit get above 25% it seems the gridlock would remain.
The chance of a stable coalition involving Corbyn & SNP and/or Libdems seems implausible, he cant even work with his own party.
We are left with ongoing stalemate and gridlock until one of the big two parties tacks back to the centre where the parliamentary majority is available. Whoever moves first will have a big advantage, moving is much easier for Labour, just changing leader may be enough, whereas for the Tories they would need to get rid of the worst of the ERG and fight against them and Brexit electorally.
In the centre the Libdems and Greens will see too much success and not start working together at a national level with a non aggression pact in first past the post elections. With Brexit and Change to come in, their successes yesterday are extremely vulnerable.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @not_on_fire said: > > > Faisal is on the money > > > > > > https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1124339705091428354 > > > > To say that a mid term government might lose its majority isn't revelatory. > > > > For example in 2012 the Conservatives were 7% behind Labour: > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_Kingdom_local_elections > > > > Remember EICIPM > > I think Faisal's point (which he doesn't make very well) is that the Conservatives did worse, the Remain-ier the seat. Going full ERG doesn't really help them in these Remain-y seats. And the Conservative Party actually did reasonably well in Leave seats, which suggests that their approach has not yet hurt them with Leave voters. > > So, it's a conundrum for the Tories that I suggest can be best solved by... > > (da da) > > Actually passing the Withdrawal Agreement. >
I agree.
The full ERG is a very minimally supported position.
> @noneoftheabove said: > I think people are drawing the wrong conclusions - this election doesnt suggest much is likely to change. > > No party looks remotely close to getting a parliamentary majority, let alone the sort of majority they need in their divided parties (at least 30 preferably 50+ to get things done). > > The only exception I can think of would be Labour getting 28-30% with the Tories and Brexit party splitting their vote and both within the 15-25% band. This would produce some weird and unpredictable results, but if the Tories can stay above 25% or less likely Brexit get above 25% it seems the gridlock would remain. > > The chance of a stable coalition involving Corbyn & SNP and/or Libdems seems implausible, he cant even work with his own party. > > We are left with ongoing stalemate and gridlock until one of the big two parties tacks back to the centre where the parliamentary majority is available. Whoever moves first will have a big advantage, moving is much easier for Labour, just changing leader may be enough, whereas for the Tories they would need to get rid of the worst of the ERG and fight against them and Brexit electorally. > > In the centre the Libdems and Greens will see too much success and not start working together at a national level with a non aggression pact in first past the post elections. With Brexit and Change to come in, their successes yesterday are extremely vulnerable.
The big takeaway for me from these elections is can the Greens keep the momentum. If they are finally going to make a decent gain in votes long term then that has consequences. I can see the main Green voter being the 18 to 35 year old. These means they will be taking votes from Labour.
> @rural_voter said: > > @The_Taxman said: > > > > > @algarkirk said: > > > > @RobD said: > > > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > > The Brexiters are now clutching at the smallest straws from today. Bless. > > > > > > > > Let's see what happens in three weeks > > > > > > The majority of votes when turned into projected national share went to parties that do not have 'remain' as their policy. I don't think that does much to support the thesis that we were voting to support Brexit, but it certainly does not support the idea that we were voting against it. I think any straw clutching will have to wait for the - undoubtedly inconclusive - outcome of the EU elections. > > > > I voted LD because I am opposed to Brexit. I know 3 others who did the same. It is true we are middle class graduates who voted Remain but we all normally vote Tory. I can only speak for myself but I am inclined to vote Change UK in the European elections as I believe this approach is inferring I oppose Brexit but I don't want the UK to join the Euro, Schengen etc. > > ___________________________________ > > Have any UK parties ever come out for the Euro and Schengen and the US of E which they clearly imply? > > Individuals have supported a federal Europe, ranging from Rachel Johnson to Jeremy Clarkson, but I've never heard a political party use words like those of Guy Verhofstadt.
I doubt Jeremy Clarkson has ever advocated a US of E!
I am cautious about voting for parties like the LD because they are very pro-European and use any vote for them as an endorsement of their agenda like in 2017. I voted Tory in 2017 and some Tory arseholes started saying all Tory and Labour votes in 2017 amounted to an endorsement of Brexit. I voted Tory because I was opposed to Corbyn. So Change UK is looking like the receptacle of my vote in the European elections.
> @ralphmalph said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > I think people are drawing the wrong conclusions - this election doesnt suggest much is likely to change. > > > > No party looks remotely close to getting a parliamentary majority, let alone the sort of majority they need in their divided parties (at least 30 preferably 50+ to get things done). > > > > The only exception I can think of would be Labour getting 28-30% with the Tories and Brexit party splitting their vote and both within the 15-25% band. This would produce some weird and unpredictable results, but if the Tories can stay above 25% or less likely Brexit get above 25% it seems the gridlock would remain. > > > > The chance of a stable coalition involving Corbyn & SNP and/or Libdems seems implausible, he cant even work with his own party. > > > > We are left with ongoing stalemate and gridlock until one of the big two parties tacks back to the centre where the parliamentary majority is available. Whoever moves first will have a big advantage, moving is much easier for Labour, just changing leader may be enough, whereas for the Tories they would need to get rid of the worst of the ERG and fight against them and Brexit electorally. > > > > In the centre the Libdems and Greens will see too much success and not start working together at a national level with a non aggression pact in first past the post elections. With Brexit and Change to come in, their successes yesterday are extremely vulnerable. > > The big takeaway fro me from these elections are can the Greens keep the momentum. If they are finally going to make a decent gain in votes long term then that has consequences. I can see the main Green voter being the 18 to 35 year old. These means they will be taking votes from Labour.
Realistically the Green vote will encourage other parties to be more green and shape and influence the debate. But they will not have parliamentary power under FPTP, getting 5 MPs would be a huge success that may take a decade of good performances unless they can agree a pact with the other smaller parties.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @ralphmalph said: > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > I think people are drawing the wrong conclusions - this election doesnt suggest much is likely to change. > > > > > > No party looks remotely close to getting a parliamentary majority, let alone the sort of majority they need in their divided parties (at least 30 preferably 50+ to get things done). > > > > > > The only exception I can think of would be Labour getting 28-30% with the Tories and Brexit party splitting their vote and both within the 15-25% band. This would produce some weird and unpredictable results, but if the Tories can stay above 25% or less likely Brexit get above 25% it seems the gridlock would remain. > > > > > > The chance of a stable coalition involving Corbyn & SNP and/or Libdems seems implausible, he cant even work with his own party. > > > > > > We are left with ongoing stalemate and gridlock until one of the big two parties tacks back to the centre where the parliamentary majority is available. Whoever moves first will have a big advantage, moving is much easier for Labour, just changing leader may be enough, whereas for the Tories they would need to get rid of the worst of the ERG and fight against them and Brexit electorally. > > > > > > In the centre the Libdems and Greens will see too much success and not start working together at a national level with a non aggression pact in first past the post elections. With Brexit and Change to come in, their successes yesterday are extremely vulnerable. > > > > The big takeaway fro me from these elections are can the Greens keep the momentum. If they are finally going to make a decent gain in votes long term then that has consequences. I can see the main Green voter being the 18 to 35 year old. These means they will be taking votes from Labour. > > Realistically the Green vote will encourage other parties to be more green and shape and influence the debate. But they will not have parliamentary power under FPTP, getting 5 MPs would be a huge success that may take a decade of good performances unless they can agree a pact with the other smaller parties.
> @justin124 said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > > Lol @ the predictions of CUK demise and LD surge. Based on a protest vote at which CUK didn't stand and LD got 1% better than 2017. You think those indies etc are gonna pile on old uncle Vince now? Lol > > > > > > > > > > Well, I think most people on here have been stating that the CUKs are more "never will bes" rather than "has beens" for some time. > > > > > > > > > > And I think the prediction is simply that if you're a EUrophile and you want to vote for the EUlover most likely to win in the Euros then that now looks like the LDs. > > > > > > > > > > It doesn't look like an outrageous suggestion to me. > > > > > > > > The similarly good performance of the similarly named independents in these locals suggests to me TIG stand good chance of equaling the Lib Dems who benefitted yesterday from being present. They are still not well liked, as can be seen by their failure to breach 20% against the worst red blue line up since 1905 > > > > > > Support for Independents is usually based on very local factors and particular personalities. They are very much an assorted mixture of people with a wide range of backgrounds - often with no previous political involvement at all. It has always struck me that the idea of an Independent Group is a contradiction in terms anway! > > > > They can rise and fall very rapidly (eg the Boston by-pass party) > > Indeed so - though in some areas being an Independent was - and to some extent continues to be - the norm. I grew up in Pembrokeshire - a county where all the local authorities were dominated by Independents. When I first became involved in politics in the early 1970s, I recall canvassing for Labour candidates for the County and District Councils and being met with many puzzled looks on doorsteps. ' What has politics got to do with Local Govt?' was a common query. It was simply not part of the culture, and whilst things have changed a little over the years, it remains the case that the majority of Councillors in such areas do not wear party labels. Candidates who do so are generally at a distinct disadvantage - and are often given support as individuals in spite of - rather than because of - their party labels.
I think Independents fall into 3 categories:-
1. Tories by any other name. Often found in English rural authorities.
2. Local campaign groups and micro-parties, like East Devon Alliance or Swale Independents. They can be of any political hue.
3. Welsh, Rural Scots, and Cornish who simply disagree with party labels in local government, and hold that you vote for the person, not the party.
> @another_richard said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > @another_richard said: > > > > @not_on_fire said: > > > > Faisal is on the money > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1124339705091428354 > > > > > > To say that a mid term government might lose its majority isn't revelatory. > > > > > > For example in 2012 the Conservatives were 7% behind Labour: > > > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_Kingdom_local_elections > > > > > > Remember EICIPM > > > > I think Faisal's point (which he doesn't make very well) is that the Conservatives did worse, the Remain-ier the seat. Going full ERG doesn't really help them in these Remain-y seats. And the Conservative Party actually did reasonably well in Leave seats, which suggests that their approach has not yet hurt them with Leave voters. > > > > So, it's a conundrum for the Tories that I suggest can be best solved by... > > > > (da da) > > > > Actually passing the Withdrawal Agreement. > > > > I agree. > > The full ERG is a very minimally supported position.
But when the Brexit Party win the EU election the ERG will announce that they have been completely vindicated and double down on their demand for a no deal Brexit.
Some of the earlier questions look quite promising for Trump to run on the economy (assuming it is going well next year) despite his current low popularity.
Bizarrely only 94% of respondents had heard of the US Military, 88% of the FBI and 84% of the Department of Justice. I dont know if that shows the polling methodology to be rubbish, hopefully it is not a cross section of US society.....
> @justin124 said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > > > > Places (most places in the UK) that are not LD arent gonna go LD. They might go Change as it is new, formed from the big two and remainy. I see no evidence of the LDs breaking out anywhere brand new for them > > > > > > Chelmsford? > > > > Tbf that was a target seat when I was young, and the Libs came close to taking it at least once, a long time ago. Similarly they used to do well on the council. Other areas of former LibDem strength in Essex (Colchester, Brentwood, Southend) had more modest advances. > > In Colchester Labour now appears to be the main challenger at a General Election.
I really think not Justin
The lib Dem candidate is really high profile and does a lot for the community.
I have not even heard anything from Labour in the years I have lived here.
> @Foxy said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @ralphmalph said: > > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > I think people are drawing the wrong conclusions - this election doesnt suggest much is likely to change. > > > > > > > > No party looks remotely close to getting a parliamentary majority, let alone the sort of majority they need in their divided parties (at least 30 preferably 50+ to get things done). > > > > > > > > The only exception I can think of would be Labour getting 28-30% with the Tories and Brexit party splitting their vote and both within the 15-25% band. This would produce some weird and unpredictable results, but if the Tories can stay above 25% or less likely Brexit get above 25% it seems the gridlock would remain. > > > > > > > > The chance of a stable coalition involving Corbyn & SNP and/or Libdems seems implausible, he cant even work with his own party. > > > > > > > > We are left with ongoing stalemate and gridlock until one of the big two parties tacks back to the centre where the parliamentary majority is available. Whoever moves first will have a big advantage, moving is much easier for Labour, just changing leader may be enough, whereas for the Tories they would need to get rid of the worst of the ERG and fight against them and Brexit electorally. > > > > > > > > In the centre the Libdems and Greens will see too much success and not start working together at a national level with a non aggression pact in first past the post elections. With Brexit and Change to come in, their successes yesterday are extremely vulnerable. > > > > > > The big takeaway fro me from these elections are can the Greens keep the momentum. If they are finally going to make a decent gain in votes long term then that has consequences. I can see the main Green voter being the 18 to 35 year old. These means they will be taking votes from Labour. > > > > Realistically the Green vote will encourage other parties to be more green and shape and influence the debate. But they will not have parliamentary power under FPTP, getting 5 MPs would be a huge success that may take a decade of good performances unless they can agree a pact with the other smaller parties. > > A good reason to vote Layla... > > https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1124399870289285120?s=19
> @anothernick said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > @another_richard said: > > > > > @not_on_fire said: > > > > > Faisal is on the money > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1124339705091428354 > > > > > > > > To say that a mid term government might lose its majority isn't revelatory. > > > > > > > > For example in 2012 the Conservatives were 7% behind Labour: > > > > > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_Kingdom_local_elections > > > > > > > > Remember EICIPM > > > > > > I think Faisal's point (which he doesn't make very well) is that the Conservatives did worse, the Remain-ier the seat. Going full ERG doesn't really help them in these Remain-y seats. And the Conservative Party actually did reasonably well in Leave seats, which suggests that their approach has not yet hurt them with Leave voters. > > > > > > So, it's a conundrum for the Tories that I suggest can be best solved by... > > > > > > (da da) > > > > > > Actually passing the Withdrawal Agreement. > > > > > > > I agree. > > > > The full ERG is a very minimally supported position. > > But when the Brexit Party win the EU election the ERG will announce that they have been completely vindicated and double down on their demand for a no deal Brexit.
They can demand what they like but Parliament is not going to agree to a No Deal Brexit.
> @thecommissioner said: > > @dixiedean said: > > What are the chances of a Euro result of > > Con. 25 > > Lab 25 > > Brexit + UKIP 25 > > CUK+LD+Green 25 > > +Nats. > > > > Ultimate piss take. > > Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move.
The problem the Conservatives have is that they are trapped - Go ERG, and they lose places like Putney and Winchester. Go more Soft Brexit, and they lose a different set of seats.
It's why they need to hold their noses and pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
> Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move.
The problem the Conservatives have is that they are trapped - Go ERG, and they lose places like Putney and Winchester. Go more Soft Brexit, and they lose a different set of seats.
It's why they need to hold their noses and pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > > @dixiedean said: > > > What are the chances of a Euro result of > > > Con. 25 > > > Lab 25 > > > Brexit + UKIP 25 > > > CUK+LD+Green 25 > > > +Nats. > > > > > > Ultimate piss take. > > > > Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move. > > The problem the Conservatives have is that they are trapped - Go ERG, and they lose places like Putney and Winchester. Go more Soft Brexit, and they lose a different set of seats. > > It's why they need to hold their noses and pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > @ralphmalph said: > > > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > I think people are drawing the wrong conclusions - this election doesnt suggest much is likely to change. > > > > > > > > > > No party looks remotely close to getting a parliamentary majority, let alone the sort of majority they need in their divided parties (at least 30 preferably 50+ to get things done). > > > > > > > > > > The only exception I can think of would be Labour getting 28-30% with the Tories and Brexit party splitting their vote and both within the 15-25% band. This would produce some weird and unpredictable results, but if the Tories can stay above 25% or less likely Brexit get above 25% it seems the gridlock would remain. > > > > > > > > > > The chance of a stable coalition involving Corbyn & SNP and/or Libdems seems implausible, he cant even work with his own party. > > > > > > > > > > We are left with ongoing stalemate and gridlock until one of the big two parties tacks back to the centre where the parliamentary majority is available. Whoever moves first will have a big advantage, moving is much easier for Labour, just changing leader may be enough, whereas for the Tories they would need to get rid of the worst of the ERG and fight against them and Brexit electorally. > > > > > > > > > > In the centre the Libdems and Greens will see too much success and not start working together at a national level with a non aggression pact in first past the post elections. With Brexit and Change to come in, their successes yesterday are extremely vulnerable. > > > > > > > > The big takeaway fro me from these elections are can the Greens keep the momentum. If they are finally going to make a decent gain in votes long term then that has consequences. I can see the main Green voter being the 18 to 35 year old. These means they will be taking votes from Labour. > > > > > > Realistically the Green vote will encourage other parties to be more green and shape and influence the debate. But they will not have parliamentary power under FPTP, getting 5 MPs would be a huge success that may take a decade of good performances unless they can agree a pact with the other smaller parties. > > > > A good reason to vote Layla... > > > > https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1124399870289285120?s=19 > > Encouraging, hope she does well.
Meanwhile, just to demonstrate why they did so well, the Lib Dems have already been in contact with the meeting point for Euro campaigning tomorrow.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > > @dixiedean said: > > > What are the chances of a Euro result of > > > Con. 25 > > > Lab 25 > > > Brexit + UKIP 25 > > > CUK+LD+Green 25 > > > +Nats. > > > > > > Ultimate piss take. > > > > Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move. > > The problem the Conservatives have is that they are trapped - Go ERG, and they lose places like Putney and Winchester. Go more Soft Brexit, and they lose a different set of seats. > > It's why they need to hold their noses and pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
I agree completely. I also think Labour are approaching the same position.
Neither are Leave/Remain "enough" to fend off ultra Brexiteers/Remainers.
The only way to stop the conversation and move forward is to find some middle road where they both gamble that enough of their own vote will be satisfied, or not too dissatisfied, and that the subject will fade.
The media really hate to change a narrative they've written in advance, hence these strained attempts to find a "voters disaffected over brexit" angle despite the total absence of any detectable electoral rawr.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > > @dixiedean said: > > > What are the chances of a Euro result of > > > Con. 25 > > > Lab 25 > > > Brexit + UKIP 25 > > > CUK+LD+Green 25 > > > +Nats. > > > > > > Ultimate piss take. > > > > Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move. > > The problem the Conservatives have is that they are trapped - Go ERG, and they lose places like Putney and Winchester. Go more Soft Brexit, and they lose a different set of seats. > > It's why they need to hold their noses and pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
Labour has the same problem -Go revoke or EUref2 and they lose places like Bolsover and Stoke. Back a Brexit Deal and they lose places like Hornsey and Wood Green and Bristol.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > > @dixiedean said: > > > What are the chances of a Euro result of > > > Con. 25 > > > Lab 25 > > > Brexit + UKIP 25 > > > CUK+LD+Green 25 > > > +Nats. > > > > > > Ultimate piss take. > > > > Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move. > > The problem the Conservatives have is that they are trapped - Go ERG, and they lose places like Putney and Winchester. Go more Soft Brexit, and they lose a different set of seats. > > It's why they need to hold their noses and pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
But these elections and the EU ones make the passage of the withdrawal agreement less likely - all sides interpret the results as vindication of their position and so become more entrenched.
> @anothernick said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > @dixiedean said: > > > > What are the chances of a Euro result of > > > > Con. 25 > > > > Lab 25 > > > > Brexit + UKIP 25 > > > > CUK+LD+Green 25 > > > > +Nats. > > > > > > > > Ultimate piss take. > > > > > > Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move. > > > > The problem the Conservatives have is that they are trapped - Go ERG, and they lose places like Putney and Winchester. Go more Soft Brexit, and they lose a different set of seats. > > > > It's why they need to hold their noses and pass the Withdrawal Agreement. > > But these elections and the EU ones make the passage of the withdrawal agreement less likely - all sides interpret the results as vindication of their position and so become more entrenched.
Except both parties are talking about how the deal has to be done...
<blockquote class="Quote" rel="RobD"> Except both parties are talking about how the deal has to be done...</blockquote>
What they say does not as much as what they do. They've talked about doing a lot of things and yet have no passed anything other than a request for more time to cock about.
> @RobD said: > > @anothernick said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > > @dixiedean said: > > > > > What are the chances of a Euro result of > > > > > Con. 25 > > > > > Lab 25 > > > > > Brexit + UKIP 25 > > > > > CUK+LD+Green 25 > > > > > +Nats. > > > > > > > > > > Ultimate piss take. > > > > > > > > Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move. > > > > > > The problem the Conservatives have is that they are trapped - Go ERG, and they lose places like Putney and Winchester. Go more Soft Brexit, and they lose a different set of seats. > > > > > > It's why they need to hold their noses and pass the Withdrawal Agreement. > > > > But these elections and the EU ones make the passage of the withdrawal agreement less likely - all sides interpret the results as vindication of their position and so become more entrenched. > > Except both parties are talking about how the deal has to be done...
What they say does not matter as much as what they do. They've talked about doing a lot of things and yet have no passed anything other than a request for more time to cock about.
> @kle4 said: > > @anothernick said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > > @dixiedean said: > > > > > What are the chances of a Euro result of > > > > > Con. 25 > > > > > Lab 25 > > > > > Brexit + UKIP 25 > > > > > CUK+LD+Green 25 > > > > > +Nats. > > > > > > > > > > Ultimate piss take. > > > > > > > > Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move. > > > > > > The problem the Conservatives have is that they are trapped - Go ERG, and they lose places like Putney and Winchester. Go more Soft Brexit, and they lose a different set of seats. > > > > > > It's why they need to hold their noses and pass the Withdrawal Agreement. > > > > But these elections and the EU ones make the passage of the withdrawal agreement less likely - all sides interpret the results as vindication of their position and so become more entrenched. > > Correct. For one thing all of them will want to see what happens in the EP elections to see how much backing the various options have.
If the Brexit Party come first - which is very likely - the ERG will double down on their demand for a no deal exit.
> @RobD said: > > @anothernick said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > > @dixiedean said: > > > > > What are the chances of a Euro result of > > > > > Con. 25 > > > > > Lab 25 > > > > > Brexit + UKIP 25 > > > > > CUK+LD+Green 25 > > > > > +Nats. > > > > > > > > > > Ultimate piss take. > > > > > > > > Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move. > > > > > > The problem the Conservatives have is that they are trapped - Go ERG, and they lose places like Putney and Winchester. Go more Soft Brexit, and they lose a different set of seats. > > > > > > It's why they need to hold their noses and pass the Withdrawal Agreement. > > > > But these elections and the EU ones make the passage of the withdrawal agreement less likely - all sides interpret the results as vindication of their position and so become more entrenched. > > Except both parties are talking about how the deal has to be done...
Corbyn cannot deliver Labour votes for a deal. Todays results will embolden Labour remainers and encourage them to hold out for a second referendum. A deal is less likely now than it was this time yesterday. And it was a pretty remote possibility yesterday....
> @Floater said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > > > > > > Places (most places in the UK) that are not LD arent gonna go LD. They might go Change as it is new, formed from the big two and remainy. I see no evidence of the LDs breaking out anywhere brand new for them > > > > > > > > Chelmsford? > > > > > > Tbf that was a target seat when I was young, and the Libs came close to taking it at least once, a long time ago. Similarly they used to do well on the council. Other areas of former LibDem strength in Essex (Colchester, Brentwood, Southend) had more modest advances. > > > > In Colchester Labour now appears to be the main challenger at a General Election. > > I really think not Justin > > The lib Dem candidate is really high profile and does a lot for the community. > > I have not even heard anything from Labour in the years I have lived here. > >
The 2017 result in Colchester appears to speak for itself _ Conservative Will Quince 24,565 45.9 +6.9 Labour Tim Young 18,888 35.3 +19.1 Liberal Democrat Bob Russell 9,087 17.0 -10.5 Green Mark Goacher 828 1.5 -3.6 Christian Peoples Robin Rennie[16] 177 0.3 +0.1
Comments
>
> > @algarkirk said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > > The Brexiters are now clutching at the smallest straws from today. Bless.
> > >
> > > Let's see what happens in three weeks
> >
> > The majority of votes when turned into projected national share went to parties that do not have 'remain' as their policy. I don't think that does much to support the thesis that we were voting to support Brexit, but it certainly does not support the idea that we were voting against it. I think any straw clutching will have to wait for the - undoubtedly inconclusive - outcome of the EU elections.
>
> I voted LD because I am opposed to Brexit. I know 3 others who did the same. It is true we are middle class graduates who voted Remain but we all normally vote Tory. I can only speak for myself but I am inclined to vote Change UK in the European elections as I believe this approach is inferring I oppose Brexit but I don't want the UK to join the Euro, Schengen etc.
___________________________________
Have any UK parties ever come out for the Euro and Schengen and the US of E which they clearly imply?
Individuals have supported a federal Europe, ranging from Rachel Johnson to Jeremy Clarkson, but I've never heard a political party use words like those of Guy Verhofstadt.
> The Tory/Labour duopoly now finds itself under threat.
>
> It's reaching the point where it's in their mutual best interests to get Brexit done in some vaguely palatable way to enough of both sets of voters and hope that 2022 is far enough away for their deal to be forgotten/marginalised.
But if Corbyn assists Brexit in getting over the line, Labour's vote share will drop by ten points minimum - and it won't recover by the GE.
> > @not_on_fire said:
> > Faisal is on the money
> >
> > https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1124339705091428354
>
> To say that a mid term government might lose its majority isn't revelatory.
>
> For example in 2012 the Conservatives were 7% behind Labour:
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_Kingdom_local_elections
>
> Remember EICIPM
I think Faisal's point (which he doesn't make very well) is that the Conservatives did worse, the Remain-ier the seat. Going full ERG doesn't really help them in these Remain-y seats. And the Conservative Party actually did reasonably well in Leave seats, which suggests that their approach has not yet hurt them with Leave voters.
So, it's a conundrum for the Tories that I suggest can be best solved by...
(da da)
Actually passing the Withdrawal Agreement.
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @not_on_fire said:
> > > Faisal is on the money
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1124339705091428354
> >
> > To say that a mid term government might lose its majority isn't revelatory.
> >
> > For example in 2012 the Conservatives were 7% behind Labour:
> >
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_Kingdom_local_elections
> >
> > Remember EICIPM
>
> I think Faisal's point (which he doesn't make very well) is that the Conservatives did worse, the Remain-ier the seat. Going full ERG doesn't really help them in these Remain-y seats. And the Conservative Party actually did reasonably well in Leave seats, which suggests that their approach has not yet hurt them with Leave voters.
>
> So, it's a conundrum for the Tories that I suggest can be best solved by...
>
> (da da)
>
> Actually passing the Withdrawal Agreement.
>
Obviously. If they can. It's not going to be easy unless those easy going DUP chaps show the flexibility that they are famous for. Ahem.
> We've held the mayoralty in Bedford and have more than 35% of the councillors - which means this is a LD gain. With elected mayors 65% of councillors are required to overrule a decision.
Yet the LDs are not a major force there at parliamentary elections.
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > Evening all! Got absolutely demolished
>
> Sorry to hear that. Who won your ward?
Independents
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > The Tory/Labour duopoly now finds itself under threat.
> >
> > It's reaching the point where it's in their mutual best interests to get Brexit done in some vaguely palatable way to enough of both sets of voters and hope that 2022 is far enough away for their deal to be forgotten/marginalised.
>
> But if Corbyn assists Brexit in getting over the line, Labour's vote share will drop by ten points minimum - and it won't recover by the GE.
It is in Corbyn's interest to let the Euro elections happen. It is likely to be far worse for the Tories than Labour. Quite possibly the Tories worst ever national percentage.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > > > Lol @ the predictions of CUK demise and LD surge. Based on a protest vote at which CUK didn't stand and LD got 1% better than 2017. You think those indies etc are gonna pile on old uncle Vince now? Lol
> > > > >
> > > > > Well, I think most people on here have been stating that the CUKs are more "never will bes" rather than "has beens" for some time.
> > > > >
> > > > > And I think the prediction is simply that if you're a EUrophile and you want to vote for the EUlover most likely to win in the Euros then that now looks like the LDs.
> > > > >
> > > > > It doesn't look like an outrageous suggestion to me.
> > > >
> > > > The similarly good performance of the similarly named independents in these locals suggests to me TIG stand good chance of equaling the Lib Dems who benefitted yesterday from being present. They are still not well liked, as can be seen by their failure to breach 20% against the worst red blue line up since 1905
> > >
> > > Support for Independents is usually based on very local factors and particular personalities. They are very much an assorted mixture of people with a wide range of backgrounds - often with no previous political involvement at all. It has always struck me that the idea of an Independent Group is a contradiction in terms anway!
> >
> > They can rise and fall very rapidly (eg the Boston by-pass party)
>
> Indeed so - though in some areas being an Independent was - and to some extent continues to be - the norm. I grew up in Pembrokeshire - a county where all the local authorities were dominated by Independents. When I first became involved in politics in the early 1970s, I recall canvassing for Labour candidates for the County and District Councils and being met with many puzzled looks on doorsteps. ' What has politics got to do with Local Govt?' was a common query. It was simply not part of the culture, and whilst things have changed a little over the years, it remains the case that the majority of Councillors in such areas do not wear party labels. Candidates who do so are generally at a distinct disadvantage - and are often given support as individuals in spite of - rather than because of - their party labels.
As an occasional visitor to Pembrokeshire I find that eminently believable, and heart-warming.
No party looks remotely close to getting a parliamentary majority, let alone the sort of majority they need in their divided parties (at least 30 preferably 50+ to get things done).
The only exception I can think of would be Labour getting 28-30% with the Tories and Brexit party splitting their vote and both within the 15-25% band. This would produce some weird and unpredictable results, but if the Tories can stay above 25% or less likely Brexit get above 25% it seems the gridlock would remain.
The chance of a stable coalition involving Corbyn & SNP and/or Libdems seems implausible, he cant even work with his own party.
We are left with ongoing stalemate and gridlock until one of the big two parties tacks back to the centre where the parliamentary majority is available. Whoever moves first will have a big advantage, moving is much easier for Labour, just changing leader may be enough, whereas for the Tories they would need to get rid of the worst of the ERG and fight against them and Brexit electorally.
In the centre the Libdems and Greens will see too much success and not start working together at a national level with a non aggression pact in first past the post elections. With Brexit and Change to come in, their successes yesterday are extremely vulnerable.
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @not_on_fire said:
> > > Faisal is on the money
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1124339705091428354
> >
> > To say that a mid term government might lose its majority isn't revelatory.
> >
> > For example in 2012 the Conservatives were 7% behind Labour:
> >
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_Kingdom_local_elections
> >
> > Remember EICIPM
>
> I think Faisal's point (which he doesn't make very well) is that the Conservatives did worse, the Remain-ier the seat. Going full ERG doesn't really help them in these Remain-y seats. And the Conservative Party actually did reasonably well in Leave seats, which suggests that their approach has not yet hurt them with Leave voters.
>
> So, it's a conundrum for the Tories that I suggest can be best solved by...
>
> (da da)
>
> Actually passing the Withdrawal Agreement.
>
I agree.
The full ERG is a very minimally supported position.
> > @SandyRentool said:
> > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > Evening all! Got absolutely demolished
> >
> > Sorry to hear that. Who won your ward?
>
> Independents
Better than losing to a Tory.
https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HHP_April2019_RV_topline.pdf
> I think people are drawing the wrong conclusions - this election doesnt suggest much is likely to change.
>
> No party looks remotely close to getting a parliamentary majority, let alone the sort of majority they need in their divided parties (at least 30 preferably 50+ to get things done).
>
> The only exception I can think of would be Labour getting 28-30% with the Tories and Brexit party splitting their vote and both within the 15-25% band. This would produce some weird and unpredictable results, but if the Tories can stay above 25% or less likely Brexit get above 25% it seems the gridlock would remain.
>
> The chance of a stable coalition involving Corbyn & SNP and/or Libdems seems implausible, he cant even work with his own party.
>
> We are left with ongoing stalemate and gridlock until one of the big two parties tacks back to the centre where the parliamentary majority is available. Whoever moves first will have a big advantage, moving is much easier for Labour, just changing leader may be enough, whereas for the Tories they would need to get rid of the worst of the ERG and fight against them and Brexit electorally.
>
> In the centre the Libdems and Greens will see too much success and not start working together at a national level with a non aggression pact in first past the post elections. With Brexit and Change to come in, their successes yesterday are extremely vulnerable.
The big takeaway for me from these elections is can the Greens keep the momentum. If they are finally going to make a decent gain in votes long term then that has consequences. I can see the main Green voter being the 18 to 35 year old. These means they will be taking votes from Labour.
> > @The_Taxman said:
> >
> > > @algarkirk said:
> > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > > > The Brexiters are now clutching at the smallest straws from today. Bless.
> > > >
> > > > Let's see what happens in three weeks
> > >
> > > The majority of votes when turned into projected national share went to parties that do not have 'remain' as their policy. I don't think that does much to support the thesis that we were voting to support Brexit, but it certainly does not support the idea that we were voting against it. I think any straw clutching will have to wait for the - undoubtedly inconclusive - outcome of the EU elections.
> >
> > I voted LD because I am opposed to Brexit. I know 3 others who did the same. It is true we are middle class graduates who voted Remain but we all normally vote Tory. I can only speak for myself but I am inclined to vote Change UK in the European elections as I believe this approach is inferring I oppose Brexit but I don't want the UK to join the Euro, Schengen etc.
>
> ___________________________________
>
> Have any UK parties ever come out for the Euro and Schengen and the US of E which they clearly imply?
>
> Individuals have supported a federal Europe, ranging from Rachel Johnson to Jeremy Clarkson, but I've never heard a political party use words like those of Guy Verhofstadt.
I doubt Jeremy Clarkson has ever advocated a US of E!
I am cautious about voting for parties like the LD because they are very pro-European and use any vote for them as an endorsement of their agenda like in 2017. I voted Tory in 2017 and some Tory arseholes started saying all Tory and Labour votes in 2017 amounted to an endorsement of Brexit. I voted Tory because I was opposed to Corbyn. So Change UK is looking like the receptacle of my vote in the European elections.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > I think people are drawing the wrong conclusions - this election doesnt suggest much is likely to change.
> >
> > No party looks remotely close to getting a parliamentary majority, let alone the sort of majority they need in their divided parties (at least 30 preferably 50+ to get things done).
> >
> > The only exception I can think of would be Labour getting 28-30% with the Tories and Brexit party splitting their vote and both within the 15-25% band. This would produce some weird and unpredictable results, but if the Tories can stay above 25% or less likely Brexit get above 25% it seems the gridlock would remain.
> >
> > The chance of a stable coalition involving Corbyn & SNP and/or Libdems seems implausible, he cant even work with his own party.
> >
> > We are left with ongoing stalemate and gridlock until one of the big two parties tacks back to the centre where the parliamentary majority is available. Whoever moves first will have a big advantage, moving is much easier for Labour, just changing leader may be enough, whereas for the Tories they would need to get rid of the worst of the ERG and fight against them and Brexit electorally.
> >
> > In the centre the Libdems and Greens will see too much success and not start working together at a national level with a non aggression pact in first past the post elections. With Brexit and Change to come in, their successes yesterday are extremely vulnerable.
>
> The big takeaway fro me from these elections are can the Greens keep the momentum. If they are finally going to make a decent gain in votes long term then that has consequences. I can see the main Green voter being the 18 to 35 year old. These means they will be taking votes from Labour.
Realistically the Green vote will encourage other parties to be more green and shape and influence the debate. But they will not have parliamentary power under FPTP, getting 5 MPs would be a huge success that may take a decade of good performances unless they can agree a pact with the other smaller parties.
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > @SandyRentool said:
> > > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > > Evening all! Got absolutely demolished
> > >
> > > Sorry to hear that. Who won your ward?
> >
> > Independents
>
> Better than losing to a Tory.
How many "Independents" are just rebadged Tories in hostile turf? Their voting record will be interesting.
Con. 25
Lab 25
Brexit + UKIP 25
CUK+LD+Green 25
+Nats.
Ultimate piss take.
> > @ralphmalph said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > I think people are drawing the wrong conclusions - this election doesnt suggest much is likely to change.
> > >
> > > No party looks remotely close to getting a parliamentary majority, let alone the sort of majority they need in their divided parties (at least 30 preferably 50+ to get things done).
> > >
> > > The only exception I can think of would be Labour getting 28-30% with the Tories and Brexit party splitting their vote and both within the 15-25% band. This would produce some weird and unpredictable results, but if the Tories can stay above 25% or less likely Brexit get above 25% it seems the gridlock would remain.
> > >
> > > The chance of a stable coalition involving Corbyn & SNP and/or Libdems seems implausible, he cant even work with his own party.
> > >
> > > We are left with ongoing stalemate and gridlock until one of the big two parties tacks back to the centre where the parliamentary majority is available. Whoever moves first will have a big advantage, moving is much easier for Labour, just changing leader may be enough, whereas for the Tories they would need to get rid of the worst of the ERG and fight against them and Brexit electorally.
> > >
> > > In the centre the Libdems and Greens will see too much success and not start working together at a national level with a non aggression pact in first past the post elections. With Brexit and Change to come in, their successes yesterday are extremely vulnerable.
> >
> > The big takeaway fro me from these elections are can the Greens keep the momentum. If they are finally going to make a decent gain in votes long term then that has consequences. I can see the main Green voter being the 18 to 35 year old. These means they will be taking votes from Labour.
>
> Realistically the Green vote will encourage other parties to be more green and shape and influence the debate. But they will not have parliamentary power under FPTP, getting 5 MPs would be a huge success that may take a decade of good performances unless they can agree a pact with the other smaller parties.
A good reason to vote Layla...
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1124399870289285120?s=19
> Foreign news: A poll out has Biden on 44%, Sanders second on 14%.
>
> https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HHP_April2019_RV_topline.pdf
This appears to be a number for all US voters, their number for Democrats is 34% to 17%
> What are the chances of a Euro result of
> Con. 25
> Lab 25
> Brexit + UKIP 25
> CUK+LD+Green 25
> +Nats.
>
> Ultimate piss take.
Think we'll see
Brexit Party 30-35%
Lab 20-25%
Lib 15-20%
Con 10-15%
Green 10-15%
TIG/Change - 5-10%
UKIP 1-5%
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > > > Lol @ the predictions of CUK demise and LD surge. Based on a protest vote at which CUK didn't stand and LD got 1% better than 2017. You think those indies etc are gonna pile on old uncle Vince now? Lol
> > > > >
> > > > > Well, I think most people on here have been stating that the CUKs are more "never will bes" rather than "has beens" for some time.
> > > > >
> > > > > And I think the prediction is simply that if you're a EUrophile and you want to vote for the EUlover most likely to win in the Euros then that now looks like the LDs.
> > > > >
> > > > > It doesn't look like an outrageous suggestion to me.
> > > >
> > > > The similarly good performance of the similarly named independents in these locals suggests to me TIG stand good chance of equaling the Lib Dems who benefitted yesterday from being present. They are still not well liked, as can be seen by their failure to breach 20% against the worst red blue line up since 1905
> > >
> > > Support for Independents is usually based on very local factors and particular personalities. They are very much an assorted mixture of people with a wide range of backgrounds - often with no previous political involvement at all. It has always struck me that the idea of an Independent Group is a contradiction in terms anway!
> >
> > They can rise and fall very rapidly (eg the Boston by-pass party)
>
> Indeed so - though in some areas being an Independent was - and to some extent continues to be - the norm. I grew up in Pembrokeshire - a county where all the local authorities were dominated by Independents. When I first became involved in politics in the early 1970s, I recall canvassing for Labour candidates for the County and District Councils and being met with many puzzled looks on doorsteps. ' What has politics got to do with Local Govt?' was a common query. It was simply not part of the culture, and whilst things have changed a little over the years, it remains the case that the majority of Councillors in such areas do not wear party labels. Candidates who do so are generally at a distinct disadvantage - and are often given support as individuals in spite of - rather than because of - their party labels.
I think Independents fall into 3 categories:-
1. Tories by any other name. Often found in English rural authorities.
2. Local campaign groups and micro-parties, like East Devon Alliance or Swale Independents. They can be of any political hue.
3. Welsh, Rural Scots, and Cornish who simply disagree with party labels in local government, and hold that you vote for the person, not the party.
Judging by recent goings-on, probably quite likely.
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > @SandyRentool said:
> > > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > > Evening all! Got absolutely demolished
> > >
> > > Sorry to hear that. Who won your ward?
> >
> > Independents
>
> Better than losing to a Tory.
What is it about socialists and hate?
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> > > > @not_on_fire said:
> > > > Faisal is on the money
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1124339705091428354
> > >
> > > To say that a mid term government might lose its majority isn't revelatory.
> > >
> > > For example in 2012 the Conservatives were 7% behind Labour:
> > >
> > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_Kingdom_local_elections
> > >
> > > Remember EICIPM
> >
> > I think Faisal's point (which he doesn't make very well) is that the Conservatives did worse, the Remain-ier the seat. Going full ERG doesn't really help them in these Remain-y seats. And the Conservative Party actually did reasonably well in Leave seats, which suggests that their approach has not yet hurt them with Leave voters.
> >
> > So, it's a conundrum for the Tories that I suggest can be best solved by...
> >
> > (da da)
> >
> > Actually passing the Withdrawal Agreement.
> >
>
> I agree.
>
> The full ERG is a very minimally supported position.
But when the Brexit Party win the EU election the ERG will announce that they have been completely vindicated and double down on their demand for a no deal Brexit.
> > @Quincel said:
> > Foreign news: A poll out has Biden on 44%, Sanders second on 14%.
> >
> > https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HHP_April2019_RV_topline.pdf
>
> This appears to be a number for all US voters, their number for Democrats is 34% to 17%
Some of the earlier questions look quite promising for Trump to run on the economy (assuming it is going well next year) despite his current low popularity.
Bizarrely only 94% of respondents had heard of the US Military, 88% of the FBI and 84% of the Department of Justice. I dont know if that shows the polling methodology to be rubbish, hopefully it is not a cross section of US society.....
> What are the chances of a Euro result of
> Con. 25
> Lab 25
> Brexit + UKIP 25
> CUK+LD+Green 25
> +Nats.
>
> Ultimate piss take.
Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/03/michael-gove-not-gone-soft-brexit-hardline-leavers-need-face/
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > >
> > > > Places (most places in the UK) that are not LD arent gonna go LD. They might go Change as it is new, formed from the big two and remainy. I see no evidence of the LDs breaking out anywhere brand new for them
> > >
> > > Chelmsford?
> >
> > Tbf that was a target seat when I was young, and the Libs came close to taking it at least once, a long time ago. Similarly they used to do well on the council. Other areas of former LibDem strength in Essex (Colchester, Brentwood, Southend) had more modest advances.
>
> In Colchester Labour now appears to be the main challenger at a General Election.
I really think not Justin
The lib Dem candidate is really high profile and does a lot for the community.
I have not even heard anything from Labour in the years I have lived here.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @ralphmalph said:
> > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > I think people are drawing the wrong conclusions - this election doesnt suggest much is likely to change.
> > > >
> > > > No party looks remotely close to getting a parliamentary majority, let alone the sort of majority they need in their divided parties (at least 30 preferably 50+ to get things done).
> > > >
> > > > The only exception I can think of would be Labour getting 28-30% with the Tories and Brexit party splitting their vote and both within the 15-25% band. This would produce some weird and unpredictable results, but if the Tories can stay above 25% or less likely Brexit get above 25% it seems the gridlock would remain.
> > > >
> > > > The chance of a stable coalition involving Corbyn & SNP and/or Libdems seems implausible, he cant even work with his own party.
> > > >
> > > > We are left with ongoing stalemate and gridlock until one of the big two parties tacks back to the centre where the parliamentary majority is available. Whoever moves first will have a big advantage, moving is much easier for Labour, just changing leader may be enough, whereas for the Tories they would need to get rid of the worst of the ERG and fight against them and Brexit electorally.
> > > >
> > > > In the centre the Libdems and Greens will see too much success and not start working together at a national level with a non aggression pact in first past the post elections. With Brexit and Change to come in, their successes yesterday are extremely vulnerable.
> > >
> > > The big takeaway fro me from these elections are can the Greens keep the momentum. If they are finally going to make a decent gain in votes long term then that has consequences. I can see the main Green voter being the 18 to 35 year old. These means they will be taking votes from Labour.
> >
> > Realistically the Green vote will encourage other parties to be more green and shape and influence the debate. But they will not have parliamentary power under FPTP, getting 5 MPs would be a huge success that may take a decade of good performances unless they can agree a pact with the other smaller parties.
>
> A good reason to vote Layla...
>
> https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1124399870289285120?s=19
Encouraging, hope she does well.
https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1124407969175748609?s=21
(Biden’s in front on 44%)
> Daily Mail reporting 30,000 spoiled ballot papers?
So, about 0.33%?
Is that up on usual?
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > @another_richard said:
> > > > > @not_on_fire said:
> > > > > Faisal is on the money
> > > > >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1124339705091428354
> > > >
> > > > To say that a mid term government might lose its majority isn't revelatory.
> > > >
> > > > For example in 2012 the Conservatives were 7% behind Labour:
> > > >
> > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_Kingdom_local_elections
> > > >
> > > > Remember EICIPM
> > >
> > > I think Faisal's point (which he doesn't make very well) is that the Conservatives did worse, the Remain-ier the seat. Going full ERG doesn't really help them in these Remain-y seats. And the Conservative Party actually did reasonably well in Leave seats, which suggests that their approach has not yet hurt them with Leave voters.
> > >
> > > So, it's a conundrum for the Tories that I suggest can be best solved by...
> > >
> > > (da da)
> > >
> > > Actually passing the Withdrawal Agreement.
> > >
> >
> > I agree.
> >
> > The full ERG is a very minimally supported position.
>
> But when the Brexit Party win the EU election the ERG will announce that they have been completely vindicated and double down on their demand for a no deal Brexit.
They can demand what they like but Parliament is not going to agree to a No Deal Brexit.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > What are the chances of a Euro result of
> > Con. 25
> > Lab 25
> > Brexit + UKIP 25
> > CUK+LD+Green 25
> > +Nats.
> >
> > Ultimate piss take.
>
> Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move.
The problem the Conservatives have is that they are trapped - Go ERG, and they lose places like Putney and Winchester. Go more Soft Brexit, and they lose a different set of seats.
It's why they need to hold their noses and pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > What are the chances of a Euro result of
> > > Con. 25
> > > Lab 25
> > > Brexit + UKIP 25
> > > CUK+LD+Green 25
> > > +Nats.
> > >
> > > Ultimate piss take.
> >
> > Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move.
>
> The problem the Conservatives have is that they are trapped - Go ERG, and they lose places like Putney and Winchester. Go more Soft Brexit, and they lose a different set of seats.
>
> It's why they need to hold their noses and pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
What makes you think the maths has changed?
> > @SandyRentool said:
> > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > > @SandyRentool said:
> > > > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > > > Evening all! Got absolutely demolished
> > > >
> > > > Sorry to hear that. Who won your ward?
> > >
> > > Independents
> >
> > Better than losing to a Tory.
>
> What is it about socialists and hate?
That's a bit of a jump.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > @ralphmalph said:
> > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > > I think people are drawing the wrong conclusions - this election doesnt suggest much is likely to change.
> > > > >
> > > > > No party looks remotely close to getting a parliamentary majority, let alone the sort of majority they need in their divided parties (at least 30 preferably 50+ to get things done).
> > > > >
> > > > > The only exception I can think of would be Labour getting 28-30% with the Tories and Brexit party splitting their vote and both within the 15-25% band. This would produce some weird and unpredictable results, but if the Tories can stay above 25% or less likely Brexit get above 25% it seems the gridlock would remain.
> > > > >
> > > > > The chance of a stable coalition involving Corbyn & SNP and/or Libdems seems implausible, he cant even work with his own party.
> > > > >
> > > > > We are left with ongoing stalemate and gridlock until one of the big two parties tacks back to the centre where the parliamentary majority is available. Whoever moves first will have a big advantage, moving is much easier for Labour, just changing leader may be enough, whereas for the Tories they would need to get rid of the worst of the ERG and fight against them and Brexit electorally.
> > > > >
> > > > > In the centre the Libdems and Greens will see too much success and not start working together at a national level with a non aggression pact in first past the post elections. With Brexit and Change to come in, their successes yesterday are extremely vulnerable.
> > > >
> > > > The big takeaway fro me from these elections are can the Greens keep the momentum. If they are finally going to make a decent gain in votes long term then that has consequences. I can see the main Green voter being the 18 to 35 year old. These means they will be taking votes from Labour.
> > >
> > > Realistically the Green vote will encourage other parties to be more green and shape and influence the debate. But they will not have parliamentary power under FPTP, getting 5 MPs would be a huge success that may take a decade of good performances unless they can agree a pact with the other smaller parties.
> >
> > A good reason to vote Layla...
> >
> > https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1124399870289285120?s=19
>
> Encouraging, hope she does well.
Meanwhile, just to demonstrate why they did so well, the Lib Dems have already been in contact with the meeting point for Euro campaigning tomorrow.
http://electionresults.parliament.uk/election/2017-06-08/Results/Location/Constituency/Colchester
scroll to bottom - apparently Easter Ross had a 2109% turn out last election :-)
Tower Hamlets - watch and learn
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > What are the chances of a Euro result of
> > > Con. 25
> > > Lab 25
> > > Brexit + UKIP 25
> > > CUK+LD+Green 25
> > > +Nats.
> > >
> > > Ultimate piss take.
> >
> > Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move.
>
> The problem the Conservatives have is that they are trapped - Go ERG, and they lose places like Putney and Winchester. Go more Soft Brexit, and they lose a different set of seats.
>
> It's why they need to hold their noses and pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
I agree completely. I also think Labour are approaching the same position.
Neither are Leave/Remain "enough" to fend off ultra Brexiteers/Remainers.
The only way to stop the conversation and move forward is to find some middle road where they both gamble that enough of their own vote will be satisfied, or not too dissatisfied, and that the subject will fade.
> Gove's on maneuvers...
>
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/03/michael-gove-not-gone-soft-brexit-hardline-leavers-need-face/
If that's Govey & Viney's actual sitting room, it's fcuking hideous.
> Daily Mail reporting 30,000 spoiled ballot papers?
That doesn't sound like much, apparently 2015 GE was about 100,000: http://www.votenone.org.uk/protest_votes_count.html
The media really hate to change a narrative they've written in advance, hence these strained attempts to find a "voters disaffected over brexit" angle despite the total absence of any detectable electoral rawr.
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > What are the chances of a Euro result of
> > > Con. 25
> > > Lab 25
> > > Brexit + UKIP 25
> > > CUK+LD+Green 25
> > > +Nats.
> > >
> > > Ultimate piss take.
> >
> > Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move.
>
> The problem the Conservatives have is that they are trapped - Go ERG, and they lose places like Putney and Winchester. Go more Soft Brexit, and they lose a different set of seats.
>
> It's why they need to hold their noses and pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
Labour has the same problem -Go revoke or EUref2 and they lose places like Bolsover and Stoke. Back a Brexit Deal and they lose places like Hornsey and Wood Green and Bristol.
> > @not_on_fire said:
> > May looks terrible in this clip. On the edge.
> >
> >
> >
> > Time's up, I think:
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1124367239447220224
> >
> >
> >
> > Theresa May is HYUFD in a skirt
>
> Is there conclusive evidence that HYUFD doesn't wear a skirt?
I would have thought even you had heard of a kilt!
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > What are the chances of a Euro result of
> > > Con. 25
> > > Lab 25
> > > Brexit + UKIP 25
> > > CUK+LD+Green 25
> > > +Nats.
> > >
> > > Ultimate piss take.
> >
> > Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move.
>
> The problem the Conservatives have is that they are trapped - Go ERG, and they lose places like Putney and Winchester. Go more Soft Brexit, and they lose a different set of seats.
>
> It's why they need to hold their noses and pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
But these elections and the EU ones make the passage of the withdrawal agreement less likely - all sides interpret the results as vindication of their position and so become more entrenched.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > > @thecommissioner said:
> > > > @dixiedean said:
> > > > What are the chances of a Euro result of
> > > > Con. 25
> > > > Lab 25
> > > > Brexit + UKIP 25
> > > > CUK+LD+Green 25
> > > > +Nats.
> > > >
> > > > Ultimate piss take.
> > >
> > > Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move.
> >
> > The problem the Conservatives have is that they are trapped - Go ERG, and they lose places like Putney and Winchester. Go more Soft Brexit, and they lose a different set of seats.
> >
> > It's why they need to hold their noses and pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
>
> But these elections and the EU ones make the passage of the withdrawal agreement less likely - all sides interpret the results as vindication of their position and so become more entrenched.
Except both parties are talking about how the deal has to be done...
Except both parties are talking about how the deal has to be done...</blockquote>
What they say does not as much as what they do. They've talked about doing a lot of things and yet have no passed anything other than a request for more time to cock about.
> > @anothernick said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > @thecommissioner said:
> > > > > @dixiedean said:
> > > > > What are the chances of a Euro result of
> > > > > Con. 25
> > > > > Lab 25
> > > > > Brexit + UKIP 25
> > > > > CUK+LD+Green 25
> > > > > +Nats.
> > > > >
> > > > > Ultimate piss take.
> > > >
> > > > Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move.
> > >
> > > The problem the Conservatives have is that they are trapped - Go ERG, and they lose places like Putney and Winchester. Go more Soft Brexit, and they lose a different set of seats.
> > >
> > > It's why they need to hold their noses and pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
> >
> > But these elections and the EU ones make the passage of the withdrawal agreement less likely - all sides interpret the results as vindication of their position and so become more entrenched.
>
> Except both parties are talking about how the deal has to be done...
What they say does not matter as much as what they do. They've talked about doing a lot of things and yet have no passed anything other than a request for more time to cock about.
> > @anothernick said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > @thecommissioner said:
> > > > > @dixiedean said:
> > > > > What are the chances of a Euro result of
> > > > > Con. 25
> > > > > Lab 25
> > > > > Brexit + UKIP 25
> > > > > CUK+LD+Green 25
> > > > > +Nats.
> > > > >
> > > > > Ultimate piss take.
> > > >
> > > > Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move.
> > >
> > > The problem the Conservatives have is that they are trapped - Go ERG, and they lose places like Putney and Winchester. Go more Soft Brexit, and they lose a different set of seats.
> > >
> > > It's why they need to hold their noses and pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
> >
> > But these elections and the EU ones make the passage of the withdrawal agreement less likely - all sides interpret the results as vindication of their position and so become more entrenched.
>
> Correct. For one thing all of them will want to see what happens in the EP elections to see how much backing the various options have.
If the Brexit Party come first - which is very likely - the ERG will double down on their demand for a no deal exit.
> > @anothernick said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > @thecommissioner said:
> > > > > @dixiedean said:
> > > > > What are the chances of a Euro result of
> > > > > Con. 25
> > > > > Lab 25
> > > > > Brexit + UKIP 25
> > > > > CUK+LD+Green 25
> > > > > +Nats.
> > > > >
> > > > > Ultimate piss take.
> > > >
> > > > Take 10 each from Tory and Labour if the Brexit position and their Brexit stances do not move.
> > >
> > > The problem the Conservatives have is that they are trapped - Go ERG, and they lose places like Putney and Winchester. Go more Soft Brexit, and they lose a different set of seats.
> > >
> > > It's why they need to hold their noses and pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
> >
> > But these elections and the EU ones make the passage of the withdrawal agreement less likely - all sides interpret the results as vindication of their position and so become more entrenched.
>
> Except both parties are talking about how the deal has to be done...
Corbyn cannot deliver Labour votes for a deal. Todays results will embolden Labour remainers and encourage them to hold out for a second referendum. A deal is less likely now than it was this time yesterday. And it was a pretty remote possibility yesterday....
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > >
> > > > > Places (most places in the UK) that are not LD arent gonna go LD. They might go Change as it is new, formed from the big two and remainy. I see no evidence of the LDs breaking out anywhere brand new for them
> > > >
> > > > Chelmsford?
> > >
> > > Tbf that was a target seat when I was young, and the Libs came close to taking it at least once, a long time ago. Similarly they used to do well on the council. Other areas of former LibDem strength in Essex (Colchester, Brentwood, Southend) had more modest advances.
> >
> > In Colchester Labour now appears to be the main challenger at a General Election.
>
> I really think not Justin
>
> The lib Dem candidate is really high profile and does a lot for the community.
>
> I have not even heard anything from Labour in the years I have lived here.
>
>
The 2017 result in Colchester appears to speak for itself _
Conservative Will Quince 24,565 45.9 +6.9
Labour Tim Young 18,888 35.3 +19.1
Liberal Democrat Bob Russell 9,087 17.0 -10.5
Green Mark Goacher 828 1.5 -3.6
Christian Peoples Robin Rennie[16] 177 0.3 +0.1
Majority
5,677 10.6 -0.9
Turnout
53,545 66.9 +1.