> @JosiasJessop said: > > @JosiasJessop said: > > > Yes, which makes sense, I just don't believe him about the antisemitism. Basically if it were not for Brexit he could look past what either he didn't think was an antisemitism problem before, or not a problem that could not be fixed. > > > > > > People can have more than one motive for an action, and there can be more than a little stiction involved. He has been in the Labour movement for over four decades, and it must be absolutely gutting to leave anything after so long - especially as you might lose long-standing friends in the process. For many people, their party allegiance is part of their identity. > > > > > > He might well have thought that anti-Semitism was a problem, but leaving would do nothing to help combat it. But when combined with Brexit and the absolute shower that lead the party, it became enough to overcome the stiction. > > > > > > Or he may have finally realised that the leadership had no intention to 'fix' the anti-Semitism problem, because they are the problem. > > > > I still don't buy it. People have been saying Corbyn was a problem in that regard for years. Brexit is his tipping point, that's fine, but crying about the anti-semitism being an issue now is weak. > > > And more evidence comes forward regarding Corbyn and his ilk wrt anti-Semitism. It might easily be that the weight of evidence has got too much for him - as it should for all Labour members with a conscience.
Well now you're implying that ones who haven't already done what Robinson now has don't have a conscience, and I don't see what's wrong in someone setting the barrier for that judgement a few months back and so being skeptical of his conversion to conscience now.
> @Thayer5 said: > > @another_richard said: > > > > > 1995 was a total disaster for the Conservatives. > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections > > > > Take a look at that map compared with today's. < > > ___ > > Ooof. Yes, that is considerably worse. Also interesting how invisible the SNP are, in 1995 - compared to now. > > >
> @Thayer5 said: > > @another_richard said: > > > > > 1995 was a total disaster for the Conservatives. > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections > > > > Take a look at that map compared with today's. < > > ___ > > Ooof. Yes, that is considerably worse. Also interesting how invisible the SNP are, in 1995 - compared to now. > > >
For the Conservatives, this was a 1991-type result, not a 1995 type result.
> @Thayer5 said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK. > > > > I think that's right. > > > > This is likely to invigorate the LDs ahead of the Euros, and mean they probably grab the bulk of the pro-EU vote. It is by no means impossible that CUK fades to a couple of percent and the LDs get 15% or so. > > > > A result like this is by no means impossible: > > > > BRX 29 > > Lab 22 > > Con 16 > > LD 13 > > G 8 > > SNP/PC 5 > > UKIP 4 > > CUK 3 < > > ____ > > That looks about right. Maybe BRX a bit higher and the Tories a bit lower. > > The CUKs were nuts not to reach some accord with the LDs. They will now disappear. > >
I dunno - 16% is a pretty low number for the Tories, well below their polling numbers. It basically says they'll only get half their vote out. And they did just get 29% in the locals.
But who knows?
And you are right about the CUKs. I just heard from a hedge fund buddy that they're doing the rounds of the City trying to raise money. Even for pro-EUropeans, I think pumping money into CUK is a hard call.
> @dixiedean said: > > @paulyork64 said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @paulyork64 said: > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > @paulyork64 said: > > > > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > > > Con have now past 1,300 losses! > > > > > > > > > > > > can we put this to bed soon so we can get down to the big betting event of the weekend. Who is "H"? > > > > > > > > > > Surely LoD will keep that big reveal until the final episode of the final (next) series? > > > > > > > > I thought Jed M had said he wasn't writing another one? could have misheard. Skys rules say bet will be settled once someone is charged and found guilty. a lot of ground to cover in one episode unless they cover it with subtitles at the end like in early series. also dead heat rule applies but not sure how there can be more than one H. more than one more bad apple certainly tho. > > > > > > According to WP, the BBC has ordered a sixth series, which I am fairly sure is intended to be the last. > > > > > > The obvious way to develop the story this series is for Hastings to end up looking like he is H and his career is in ruins, then the final series sees his two trusty team members prove his innocence and unmask the real H. Just a guess. > > > > > > > a fair guess. glad there's a series 6 but sounds like there might be a wait. I thought he was gonna switch to just doing more bodyguard after its success. I hope they resolve H for this series. Dear God there'll be more bent coppers for S6. > > Just a shout to say that any who like LoD and Bodyguard should catch up with Jed's excellent series Bodies on I player. > Criminally ignored when it went out on BBC 3 in the mid naughties > Mercurio reckons it is his best work.
> @kle4 said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK. > > Indeed - there was at least a danger CUK might outpoll or poll similarly to LD in the Euros, but a number of waverers would I think be bolstered by this and stick with the LDs.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK. > > I think that's right. > > This is likely to invigorate the LDs ahead of the Euros, and mean they probably grab the bulk of the pro-EU vote. It is by no means impossible that CUK fades to a couple of percent and the LDs get 15% or so. > > A result like this is by no means impossible: > > BRX 29 > Lab 22 > Con 16 > LD 13 > G 8 > SNP/PC 5 > UKIP 4 > CUK 3 >
I don’t think the Lib Dems on 13% would be a sign of invigoration. Your LD + Green + CUK total is only 24% when they’re on 28% in the latest YouGov.
As an aside, the LD council gains are almost entirely in places where they had MPs back in 2010.
I doubt they will be heading back to 30 seats any time soon, but getting to the high teens or twenty looks like an achievable goal for then in 2022. (Or 2019, depending on how things go...)
Lol @ the predictions of CUK demise and LD surge. Based on a protest vote at which CUK didn't stand and LD got 1% better than 2017. You think those indies etc are gonna pile on old uncle Vince now? Lol
Broken the 1300 barrier - now almost exactly double my prediction. Glad I didn't bet on it.
Labour shitting the bed is hiding the terribleness of the Tory position, gaining handfuls of seats in Sunderland like places but losing tsunamis of councils to the Lib Dems.
> @Thayer5 said: > > @another_richard said: > > > > > 1995 was a total disaster for the Conservatives. > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections > > > > Take a look at that map compared with today's. < > > ___ > > Ooof. Yes, that is considerably worse. Also interesting how invisible the SNP are, in 1995 - compared to now. > _____________________
BBC R4 News is convinced that the two main parties are being punished for 'not delivering Brexit fast enough'. Anyone know of an alternative source of impartial radio news? It could be that voters on balance no longer want to leave having seen how long it takes and how chaotic the process is.
So maybe only >30% for Green/PC/SNP/LD/CUK on 23 May will deliver a clear message.
6,100,000 signatures for Revoke - yes, deduct the dodgy ones - was a lot of people if they all turn out. Only 600,000 signed the No Deal petition by the time it closed and yes I'm sure it also had some dodgy signatures.
> @Alistair said: > Broken the 1300 barrier - now almost exactly double my prediction. Glad I didn't bet on it. > > Labour shitting the bed is hiding the terribleness of the Tory position, gaining handfuls of seats in Sunderland like places but losing tsunamis of councils to the Lib Dems.
They haven't. They've won three times as many seats as the Lib Dems.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK. > > I think that's right. > > This is likely to invigorate the LDs ahead of the Euros, and mean they probably grab the bulk of the pro-EU vote. It is by no means impossible that CUK fades to a couple of percent and the LDs get 15% or so. > > A result like this is by no means impossible: > > BRX 29 > Lab 22 > Con 16 > LD 13 > G 8 > SNP/PC 5 > UKIP 4 > CUK 3 >
I think after today's performance, Labour will be no more than 3% ahead of the Conservatives.
But both parties will be DESPERATE to avoid the vote.
> @dyedwoolie said: > Lol @ the predictions of CUK demise and LD surge. Based on a protest vote at which CUK didn't stand and LD got 1% better than 2017. You think those indies etc are gonna pile on old uncle Vince now? Lol
Well, I think most people on here have been stating that the CUKs are more "never will bes" rather than "has beens" for some time.
And I think the prediction is simply that if you're a EUrophile and you want to vote for the EUlover most likely to win in the Euros then that now looks like the LDs.
It doesn't look like an outrageous suggestion to me.
> @dyedwoolie said: > Lol @ the predictions of CUK demise and LD surge. Based on a protest vote at which CUK didn't stand and LD got 1% better than 2017. You think those indies etc are gonna pile on old uncle Vince now? Lol
Not saying CUK have no change. But a bad or middling night for the LDs would perhaps have given CUK a boost as an alternative. LD members riding high and some former voters being impressed might make tempting them aware to CUK harder.
> But who knows? > > And you are right about the CUKs. I just heard from a hedge fund buddy that they're doing the rounds of the City trying to raise money. Even for pro-EUropeans, I think pumping money into CUK is a hard call. <
_____
The main problem for the CUKs (apart from all the other problems, like racism, incompetence, lack of brand clarity, etc) is that they don't have one important figurehead - a natural leader.
Farage has been able to bring his fanbase with him to TBP, and it is a large fanbase - he is the sixth most liked leader in the country. and THE most liked leader of a minor party. Sure he is hated by many more, but that doesn't matter. He has national salience and he has loyal followers.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > Lol @ the predictions of CUK demise and LD surge. Based on a protest vote at which CUK didn't stand and LD got 1% better than 2017. You think those indies etc are gonna pile on old uncle Vince now? Lol > > Well, I think most people on here have been stating that the CUKs are more "never will bes" rather than "has beens" for some time. > > And I think the prediction is simply that if you're a EUrophile and you want to vote for the EUlover most likely to win in the Euros then that now looks like the LDs. > > It doesn't look like an outrageous suggestion to me.
The similarly good performance of the similarly named independents in these locals suggests to me TIG stand good chance of equaling the Lib Dems who benefitted yesterday from being present. They are still not well liked, as can be seen by their failure to breach 20% against the worst red blue line up since 1905
Well now you're implying that ones who haven't already done what Robinson now has don't have a conscience, and I don't see what's wrong in someone setting the barrier for that judgement a few months back and so being skeptical of his conversion to conscience now.
On your former point, I find it hard to see how people who see themselves as supporting the Labour Party - a party that has always claimed (often correctly) to have right and morality on its side - can continue in a party that has so mired itself in anti-Semitism and general nastiness. Instead, as we sadly see on here, we see some excusing and denying anti-Semitism or employing 'look, squirrel!' tactics.
But again you miss (avoid?) my general point: people can have multiple motivations for an action - and in his case, what must have been a very hard and heartbreaking decision for him. Any one factor might not have been enough to trigger the move, but a deterioration in one, some or all of them might have been.
> @williamglenn said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK. > > > > I think that's right. > > > > This is likely to invigorate the LDs ahead of the Euros, and mean they probably grab the bulk of the pro-EU vote. It is by no means impossible that CUK fades to a couple of percent and the LDs get 15% or so. > > > > A result like this is by no means impossible: > > > > BRX 29 > > Lab 22 > > Con 16 > > LD 13 > > G 8 > > SNP/PC 5 > > UKIP 4 > > CUK 3 > > > > I don’t think the Lib Dems on 13% would be a sign of invigoration. Your LD + Green + CUK total is only 24% when they’re on 28% in the latest YouGov.
There's a vote of 25-30% for parties totally opposed to Brexit. Either it has to be perfectly balanced to achieve proportionate representation, or one of them has to break out of the pack.
> @Sean_F said: > > @Alistair said: > > Broken the 1300 barrier - now almost exactly double my prediction. Glad I didn't bet on it. > > > > Labour shitting the bed is hiding the terribleness of the Tory position, gaining handfuls of seats in Sunderland like places but losing tsunamis of councils to the Lib Dems. > > They haven't. They've won three times as many seats as the Lib Dems.
The Conservatives still won more than 40% of seats contested, and still dominate councils across the country. Compare than to 1995 when they had far fewer (like a fifth of the number) councils than the LDs.
This was not a good night for the Conservatives, but we forget that 2015 was an excellent year for them.
> @rural_voter said: > > @Thayer5 said: > > > @another_richard said: > > > > > > > > 1995 was a total disaster for the Conservatives. > > > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections > > > > > > Take a look at that map compared with today's. < > > > > ___ > > > > Ooof. Yes, that is considerably worse. Also interesting how invisible the SNP are, in 1995 - compared to now. > > > _____________________ > > BBC R4 News is convinced that the two main parties are being punished for 'not delivering Brexit fast enough'. Anyone know of an alternative source of impartial radio news? It could be that voters on balance no longer want to leave having seen how long it takes and how chaotic the process is. > > So maybe only >30% for Green/PC/SNP/LD/CUK on 23 May will deliver a clear message. > > 6,100,000 signatures for Revoke - yes, deduct the dodgy ones - was a lot of people if they all turn out. Only 600,000 signed the No Deal petition by the time it closed and yes I'm sure it also had some dodgy signatures.
If May and Corbyn think that these results are an endorsement for a speedy Brexit, what do they think an endorsement for Remain would have looked like?
> @Sean_F said: > > @Thayer5 said: > > > @another_richard said: > > > > > > > > 1995 was a total disaster for the Conservatives. > > > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections > > > > > > Take a look at that map compared with today's. < > > > > ___ > > > > Ooof. Yes, that is considerably worse. Also interesting how invisible the SNP are, in 1995 - compared to now. > > > > > > > > > @Thayer5 said: > > > @another_richard said: > > > > > > > > 1995 was a total disaster for the Conservatives. > > > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections > > > > > > Take a look at that map compared with today's. < > > > > ___ > > > > Ooof. Yes, that is considerably worse. Also interesting how invisible the SNP are, in 1995 - compared to now. > > > > > > > > For the Conservatives, this was a 1991-type result, not a 1995 type result. >
Interesting to compare the individual councils then and now:
> @Sean_F said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK. > > > > > > I think that's right. > > > > > > This is likely to invigorate the LDs ahead of the Euros, and mean they probably grab the bulk of the pro-EU vote. It is by no means impossible that CUK fades to a couple of percent and the LDs get 15% or so. > > > > > > A result like this is by no means impossible: > > > > > > BRX 29 > > > Lab 22 > > > Con 16 > > > LD 13 > > > G 8 > > > SNP/PC 5 > > > UKIP 4 > > > CUK 3 > > > > > > > I don’t think the Lib Dems on 13% would be a sign of invigoration. Your LD + Green + CUK total is only 24% when they’re on 28% in the latest YouGov. > > There's a vote of 25-30% for parties totally opposed to Brexit. Either it has to be perfectly balanced to achieve proportionate representation, or one of them has to break out of the pack.
Places (most places in the UK) that are not LD arent gonna go LD. They might go Change as it is new, formed from the big two and remainy. I see no evidence of the LDs breaking out anywhere brand new for them
Even within the yougov polling, there's some geographical and age related splits between the Lib Dems, Greens and CUK.
The Lib Dems now have the advantage of a bit of favourable press and quite a few people have just given them their vote. There must be a good chance they will do the same in three weeks because CUK are no more europhile than them.
Tuition fees are still a drag on the brand, but the under 30 age group will vote Green, not CUK.
> @JosiasJessop said: > Well now you're implying that ones who haven't already done what Robinson now has don't have a conscience, and I don't see what's wrong in someone setting the barrier for that judgement a few months back and so being skeptical of his conversion to conscience now. > > On your former point, I find it hard to see how people who see themselves as supporting the Labour Party - a party that has always claimed (often correctly) to have right and morality on its side - can continue in a party that has so mired itself in anti-Semitism and general nastiness. Instead, as we sadly see on here, we see some excusing and denying anti-Semitism or employing 'look, squirrel!' tactics. > > But again you miss (avoid?) my general point: people can have multiple motivations for an action - and in his case, what must have been a very hard and heartbreaking decision for him. Any one factor might not have been enough to trigger the move, but a deterioration in one, some or all of them might have been.
I don't think I am avoiding that there are multiple motivations. I just think that the fact the other motivation was not enough for him to quit the party diminishes how much it can be taken as a mattering all that much to him. It was not enough to make him quit, ergo it was not that big a deal.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @Alistair said: > > > Broken the 1300 barrier - now almost exactly double my prediction. Glad I didn't bet on it. > > > > > > Labour shitting the bed is hiding the terribleness of the Tory position, gaining handfuls of seats in Sunderland like places but losing tsunamis of councils to the Lib Dems. > > > > They haven't. They've won three times as many seats as the Lib Dems. > > The Conservatives still won more than 40% of seats contested, and still dominate councils across the country. Compare than to 1995 when they had far fewer (like a fifth of the number) councils than the LDs. > > This was not a good night for the Conservatives, but we forget that 2015 was an excellent year for them.
For the Lib Dems, today was like the Conservatives regaining councils like Hertsmere, Bromley, and New Forest in the late nineties, early nought is. It's encouraging, but they are the low hanging fruit.
> @thecommissioner said: > Even within the yougov polling, there's some geographical and age related splits between the Lib Dems, Greens and CUK. > > The Lib Dems now have the advantage of a bit of favourable press and quite a few people have just given them their vote. There must be a good chance they will do the same in three weeks because CUK are no more europhile than them. > > Tuition fees are still a drag on the brand, but the under 30 age group will vote Green.
I think tuition fees has now been forgotten about, the world's moved on and I don't see it being a roadblock to the Lib Dems garnering younger voters, particularly as many of them will have been mere children when the Lib Dems flip-flopped.
Let's not overlook the fact that the LDs are named the party of local government often, for those pissed off with the big two nationally, a local election protest for thd LDs is 'safe pair of temporary hands' territory
Farage is now being put under enormous pressure from his own side to emulate the Lib Dem Renaissance. It’s probably not what he’d have wanted. The Brexit Party now has to secure at least 55% of the vote in the Euros to avoid taunts of choking.
> @Alistair said: > Broken the 1300 barrier - now almost exactly double my prediction. Glad I didn't bet on it. > > Labour shitting the bed is hiding the terribleness of the Tory position, gaining handfuls of seats in Sunderland like places but losing tsunamis of councils to the Lib Dems.
Could you give a list of these 'tsunamis of councils' the LibDems have gained from the Conservatives ?
> @Casino_Royale said: > FPT - Many thanks for the commiserations on my sub optimal result in deepest ex blue Surrey. Majority against was 300 at the upper end of expectations, though I knew I’d lose. But for one elector, it was obviously personal for he/she scrawled in big black pencil TRAITOR against my name, which I thought a mite harsh. Must have known my Fenian background...... > > Commiserations, JohnO. > > You give a lot to your local community and I hope you’re back again soon.
Many thanks but I’m still a member of Surrey County Council whose term doesn’t end until 2021, when, you never know, there might be a Conservative Party that’s recovered some vestigial semblance of competence. But that’s a big ask.
> @Sean_F said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @Alistair said: > > > > Broken the 1300 barrier - now almost exactly double my prediction. Glad I didn't bet on it. > > > > > > > > Labour shitting the bed is hiding the terribleness of the Tory position, gaining handfuls of seats in Sunderland like places but losing tsunamis of councils to the Lib Dems. > > > > > > They haven't. They've won three times as many seats as the Lib Dems. > > > > The Conservatives still won more than 40% of seats contested, and still dominate councils across the country. Compare than to 1995 when they had far fewer (like a fifth of the number) councils than the LDs. > > > > This was not a good night for the Conservatives, but we forget that 2015 was an excellent year for them. > > For the Lib Dems, today was like the Conservatives regaining councils like Hertsmere, Bromley, and New Forest in the late nineties, early nought is. It's encouraging, but they are the low hanging fruit.
So you are saying that the tide has changed and we are going to see years of serial Tory losses?
I see now you have passed through the denial stage and are entering the bargaining phase.
<blockquote class="Quote" rel="Stark_Dawning">Farage is now being put under enormous pressure from his own side to emulate the Lib Dem Renaissance. It’s probably not what he’d have wanted. The Brexit Party now has to secure at least 55% of the vote in the Euros to avoid taunts of choking.</blockquote>
> @Stark_Dawning said: > Farage is now being put under enormous pressure from his own side to emulate the Lib Dem Renaissance. It’s probably not what he’d have wanted. The Brexit Party now has to secure at least 55% of the vote in the Euros to avoid taunts of choking.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @Alistair said: > > > Broken the 1300 barrier - now almost exactly double my prediction. Glad I didn't bet on it. > > > > > > Labour shitting the bed is hiding the terribleness of the Tory position, gaining handfuls of seats in Sunderland like places but losing tsunamis of councils to the Lib Dems. > > > > They haven't. They've won three times as many seats as the Lib Dems. > > The Conservatives still won more than 40% of seats contested, and still dominate councils across the country. Compare than to 1995 when they had far fewer (like a fifth of the number) councils than the LDs. > > This was not a good night for the Conservatives, but we forget that 2015 was an excellent year for them.
As I said below, it’s actually a terrible result, ameliorated by the poor performance of others. Give the Tories precisely the same votes in a scenario where either Labour achieved an NEV 5-10% higher or the LibDems got back into the 20%s and the Tory result would have been way worse. Many Tory councillors were saved by the range of alternatives on offer (esp all the Indys) and the split of the vote between them.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > The Brexiters are now clutching at the smallest straws from today. Bless.
The election that counts for Brexit is the European Elections. Which if the Brexit Party win the REMAINers have to admit no one has changed their mind on Brexit.
> The Brexiters are now clutching at the smallest straws from today. Bless.
The election that counts for Brexit is the European Elections. Which if the Brexit Party win the REMAINers have to admit no one has changed their mind on Brexit.
If the Brexit Party gets less than 52% of the vote then we are perfectly entitled to conclude that many have changed their mind.
> @dyedwoolie said: > Let's not overlook the fact that the LDs are named the party of local government often, for those pissed off with the big two nationally, a local election protest for thd LDs is 'safe pair of temporary hands' territory
So, what would a public swing against Brexit have looked like if you think this was a protest?
> @Thayer5 said: > @rcs1000 said: > > > But who knows? > > > > And you are right about the CUKs. I just heard from a hedge fund buddy that they're doing the rounds of the City trying to raise money. Even for pro-EUropeans, I think pumping money into CUK is a hard call. < > > _____ > > The main problem for the CUKs (apart from all the other problems, like racism, incompetence, lack of brand clarity, etc) is that they don't have one important figurehead - a natural leader. > > Farage has been able to bring his fanbase with him to TBP, and it is a large fanbase - he is the sixth most liked leader in the country. and THE most liked leader of a minor party. Sure he is hated by many more, but that doesn't matter. He has national salience and he has loyal followers. > > https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/politicians-political-figures/all > > If you examine this same list you have to go down to "140th most popular" to find the first CUK - Heidi Alexander. > > To most people they are completely invisible. > >
If you can’t get her name right, that’s a bad sign as well.
It truly is astonishing how also many are trying to spin large gains for a very pro-Remain party and big losses for the main Brexit party as an endorsement for leaving as soon as possible.
> @dyedwoolie said: > > Places (most places in the UK) that are not LD arent gonna go LD. They might go Change as it is new, formed from the big two and remainy. I see no evidence of the LDs breaking out anywhere brand new for them
> @not_on_fire said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > The Brexiters are now clutching at the smallest straws from today. Bless. > > > > The election that counts for Brexit is the European Elections. Which if the Brexit Party win the REMAINers have to admit no one has changed their mind on Brexit. > > If the Brexit Party gets less than 52% of the vote then we are perfectly entitled to conclude that many have changed their mind.
> @AndreaParma_82 said: > York > > LD 21 (+9) > Lab 17 (+2) > Greens 4 (=) > Ind 3 (+1) > Con 2 (-12)
In a city like York, I expect that is curtains for the Tories. I remember when Cambridge had a Tory MP and Tory councillors, and progressively they all lost their seats, never to return.
> The Brexiters are now clutching at the smallest straws from today. Bless.
The election that counts for Brexit is the European Elections. Which if the Brexit Party win the REMAINers have to admit no one has changed their mind on Brexit.
If the Brexit Party gets less than 52% of the vote then we are perfectly entitled to conclude that many have changed their mind.
Over three quarters of people didn't vote for Remain parties yesterday.
> @Foxy said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > Let's not overlook the fact that the LDs are named the party of local government often, for those pissed off with the big two nationally, a local election protest for thd LDs is 'safe pair of temporary hands' territory > > So, what would a public swing against Brexit have looked like if you think this was a protest?
I'd say it's more likely leavers sat on their hands waiting for a chance to fellate Nigel in 3 weeks. Also this was the fury of Tory remainers, not some surge in opinion I'd suggest Remain might be narrowly ahead RN but it's hard to tell.
> @Foxy said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > @Alistair said: > > > > > Broken the 1300 barrier - now almost exactly double my prediction. Glad I didn't bet on it. > > > > > > > > > > Labour shitting the bed is hiding the terribleness of the Tory position, gaining handfuls of seats in Sunderland like places but losing tsunamis of councils to the Lib Dems. > > > > > > > > They haven't. They've won three times as many seats as the Lib Dems. > > > > > > The Conservatives still won more than 40% of seats contested, and still dominate councils across the country. Compare than to 1995 when they had far fewer (like a fifth of the number) councils than the LDs. > > > > > > This was not a good night for the Conservatives, but we forget that 2015 was an excellent year for them. > > > > For the Lib Dems, today was like the Conservatives regaining councils like Hertsmere, Bromley, and New Forest in the late nineties, early nought is. It's encouraging, but they are the low hanging fruit. > > So you are saying that the tide has changed and we are going to see years of serial Tory losses? > > I see now you have passed through the denial stage and are entering the bargaining phase.
Tides ebb and flow.
In certain respects these results should have happened in the county council elections of 2017 ie mid term of the Conservative government.
> @dyedwoolie said: > Let's not overlook the fact that the LDs are named the party of local government often, for those pissed off with the big two nationally, a local election protest for thd LDs is 'safe pair of temporary hands' territory
The chart at the top of the page is interesting. The LDs got between 20 and 30% in every local election (on an NEV basis) between 1981 and 2019 <b>except</b>:
1. In the aftermath of the 1987 election, the collapse of the Alliance and the creation of the LDs. 2. During, and in the aftermath of, the coalition.
This election they came in just shy of 20%. If I were a LD, and I'm not, I would be heartened by this election.
It's the best NEV since the creation of the coalition. They didn't just make up for 2015's seat losses, but a bunch of the losses from 2011 too. They won councils where they previously had MPs.
This doesn't presage some miraculous recovery. But you have to be willfully blind not to admit they've had a good night.
> @IanB2 said: > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > York > > > > LD 21 (+9) > > Lab 17 (+2) > > Greens 4 (=) > > Ind 3 (+1) > > Con 2 (-12) > > In a city like York, I expect that is curtains for the Tories. I remember when Cambridge had a Tory MP and Tory councillors, and progressively they all lost their seats, never to return.
Today Leicester lost its last Tory councillor, but did gain an LD, as the sole representative of the rest of the parties in Red Leicester. Useful LD gains elsewhere in the county though.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > Let's not overlook the fact that the LDs are named the party of local government often, for those pissed off with the big two nationally, a local election protest for thd LDs is 'safe pair of temporary hands' territory > > The chart at the top of the page is interesting. The LDs got between 20 and 30% in every local election (on an NEV basis) between 1981 and 2019 <b>except</b>: > > 1. In the aftermath of the 1987 election, the collapse of the Alliance and the creation of the LDs. > 2. During, and in the aftermath of, the coalition. > > This election they came in just shy of 20%. If I were a LD, and I'm not, I would be heartened by this election. > > It's the best NEV since the creation of the coalition. > They didn't just make up for 2015's seat losses, but a bunch of the losses from 2011 too. > They won councils where they previously had MPs. > > This doesn't presage some miraculous recovery. But you have to be willfully blind not to admit they've had a good night.
They did indeed. From a low base. They may be on track for 25 seats at a GE. If they can avoid Swinson and Moran as leader
> @IanB2 said: > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > York > > > > LD 21 (+9) > > Lab 17 (+2) > > Greens 4 (=) > > Ind 3 (+1) > > Con 2 (-12) > > In a city like York, I expect that is curtains for the Tories. I remember when Cambridge had a Tory MP and Tory councillors, and progressively they all lost their seats, never to return.
The Conservatives were wiped out in York in the 1990s and then recovered.
The council area is large enough for them to return.
> @Foxy said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > @Alistair said: > > > > > Broken the 1300 barrier - now almost exactly double my prediction. Glad I didn't bet on it. > > > > > > > > > > Labour shitting the bed is hiding the terribleness of the Tory position, gaining handfuls of seats in Sunderland like places but losing tsunamis of councils to the Lib Dems. > > > > > > > > They haven't. They've won three times as many seats as the Lib Dems. > > > > > > The Conservatives still won more than 40% of seats contested, and still dominate councils across the country. Compare than to 1995 when they had far fewer (like a fifth of the number) councils than the LDs. > > > > > > This was not a good night for the Conservatives, but we forget that 2015 was an excellent year for them. > > > > For the Lib Dems, today was like the Conservatives regaining councils like Hertsmere, Bromley, and New Forest in the late nineties, early nought is. It's encouraging, but they are the low hanging fruit. > > So you are saying that the tide has changed and we are going to see years of serial Tory losses? > > I see now you have passed through the denial stage and are entering the bargaining phase.
The longer the Conservatives are in office, the worse one expect their performance in local elections to be.
> @nunuone said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > The Brexiters are now clutching at the smallest straws from today. Bless. > > The election that counts for Brexit is the European Elections. Which if the Brexit Party win the REMAINers have to admit no one has changed their mind on Brexit.
With all due respect, it is not their position, but the vote shares that matter.
> @williamglenn said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > Places (most places in the UK) that are not LD arent gonna go LD. They might go Change as it is new, formed from the big two and remainy. I see no evidence of the LDs breaking out anywhere brand new for them > > Chelmsford?
Tbf that was a target seat when I was young, and the Libs came close to taking it at least once, a long time ago. Similarly they used to do well on the council. Other areas of former LibDem strength in Essex (Colchester, Brentwood, Southend) had more modest advances.
> @KentRising said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > The all new SDP did well then > > They only fielded about six candidates and have zero money, so a bit harsh to expect movement.
Makes you wonder why Liddle and co jumped on board. They have no elected representatives afaik their east riding councillor has disappeared They might have one in port Talbot
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @KentRising said: > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > The all new SDP did well then > > > > They only fielded about six candidates and have zero money, so a bit harsh to expect movement. > > Makes you wonder why Liddle and co jumped on board. > They have no elected representatives afaik their east riding councillor has disappeared > They might have one in port Talbot
> @rcs1000 said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > Let's not overlook the fact that the LDs are named the party of local government often, for those pissed off with the big two nationally, a local election protest for thd LDs is 'safe pair of temporary hands' territory > > The chart at the top of the page is interesting. The LDs got between 20 and 30% in every local election (on an NEV basis) between 1981 and 2019 <b>except</b>: > > 1. In the aftermath of the 1987 election, the collapse of the Alliance and the creation of the LDs. > 2. During, and in the aftermath of, the coalition. > > This election they came in just shy of 20%. If I were a LD, and I'm not, I would be heartened by this election. > > It's the best NEV since the creation of the coalition. > They didn't just make up for 2015's seat losses, but a bunch of the losses from 2011 too. > They won councils where they previously had MPs. > > This doesn't presage some miraculous recovery. But you have to be willfully blind not to admit they've had a good night.
Its a solid recovery but nothing more than they should be expected to do after four years out of government and with the other parties in such a mess.
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > Lol @ the predictions of CUK demise and LD surge. Based on a protest vote at which CUK didn't stand and LD got 1% better than 2017. You think those indies etc are gonna pile on old uncle Vince now? Lol > > > > Well, I think most people on here have been stating that the CUKs are more "never will bes" rather than "has beens" for some time. > > > > And I think the prediction is simply that if you're a EUrophile and you want to vote for the EUlover most likely to win in the Euros then that now looks like the LDs. > > > > It doesn't look like an outrageous suggestion to me. > > The similarly good performance of the similarly named independents in these locals suggests to me TIG stand good chance of equaling the Lib Dems who benefitted yesterday from being present. They are still not well liked, as can be seen by their failure to breach 20% against the worst red blue line up since 1905
Support for Independents is usually based on very local factors and particular personalities. They are very much an assorted mixture of people with a wide range of backgrounds - often with no previous political involvement at all. It has always struck me that the idea of an Independent Group is a contradiction in terms anway!
> @justin124 said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > Lol @ the predictions of CUK demise and LD surge. Based on a protest vote at which CUK didn't stand and LD got 1% better than 2017. You think those indies etc are gonna pile on old uncle Vince now? Lol > > > > > > Well, I think most people on here have been stating that the CUKs are more "never will bes" rather than "has beens" for some time. > > > > > > And I think the prediction is simply that if you're a EUrophile and you want to vote for the EUlover most likely to win in the Euros then that now looks like the LDs. > > > > > > It doesn't look like an outrageous suggestion to me. > > > > The similarly good performance of the similarly named independents in these locals suggests to me TIG stand good chance of equaling the Lib Dems who benefitted yesterday from being present. They are still not well liked, as can be seen by their failure to breach 20% against the worst red blue line up since 1905 > > Support for Independents is usually based on very local factors and particular personalities. They are very much an assorted mixture of people with a wide range of backgrounds - often with no previous political involvement at all. It has always struck me that the idea of an Independent Group is a contradiction in terms anway!
They can rise and fall very rapidly (eg the Boston by-pass party)
> @rcs1000 said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > @KentRising said: > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > The all new SDP did well then > > > > > > They only fielded about six candidates and have zero money, so a bit harsh to expect movement. > > > > Makes you wonder why Liddle and co jumped on board. > > They have no elected representatives afaik their east riding councillor has disappeared > > They might have one in port Talbot > > Young @isam is keen on them.
I quite like the SDP in their new guise and so would argue it's a case of they could be a popular party it's just that no one has heard of them yet! They've had zero national coverage and have no Farage-esque personality leader to attract headlines. I don't know how they proceed other than focussing on the locals and trying to create a 'heartland' somewhere and build up slowly.
In fairness Patrick 0'Flynn may have achieved a four-figure vote in the Peterborough by-election if the Brexit Party hadn't decided to piss on his chips.
I don't think I am avoiding that there are multiple motivations. I just think that the fact the other motivation was not enough for him to quit the party diminishes how much it can be taken as a mattering all that much to him. It was not enough to make him quit, ergo it was not that big a deal.
I'm sorry, but IMV that's nonsense. It can be a very big deal, but not enough to get him to leave something he's been part of for most of his life. When combined with other (potentially small) areas, it was.
And Labour's anti-Semitism crisis has not remained static, but has deepened with time. For instance, he might have decided that the recent appointment to Labour's complaints showed that the party leadership were not interested in addressing the issue at all.
But as an aside, afaicr his statement mentions Labour's position on Brexit as being one of the reasons for his leaving, but he does not make it clear which direction he would prefer. I'm guessing he's pro-EU, but is that right?
> @RobD said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > The Brexiters are now clutching at the smallest straws from today. Bless. > > Let's see what happens in three weeks
The majority of votes when turned into projected national share went to parties that do not have 'remain' as their policy. I don't think that does much to support the thesis that we were voting to support Brexit, but it certainly does not support the idea that we were voting against it. I think any straw clutching will have to wait for the - undoubtedly inconclusive - outcome of the EU elections.
> @IanB2 said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > > Places (most places in the UK) that are not LD arent gonna go LD. They might go Change as it is new, formed from the big two and remainy. I see no evidence of the LDs breaking out anywhere brand new for them > > > > Chelmsford? > > Tbf that was a target seat when I was young, and the Libs came close to taking it at least once, a long time ago. Similarly they used to do well on the council. Other areas of former LibDem strength in Essex (Colchester, Brentwood, Southend) had more modest advances.
In Colchester Labour now appears to be the main challenger at a General Election.
The Tory/Labour duopoly now finds itself under threat.
It's reaching the point where it's in their mutual best interests to get Brexit done in some vaguely palatable way to enough of both sets of voters and hope that 2022 is far enough away for their deal to be forgotten/marginalised.
> @algarkirk said: > > @RobD said: > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > The Brexiters are now clutching at the smallest straws from today. Bless. > > > > Let's see what happens in three weeks > > The majority of votes when turned into projected national share went to parties that do not have 'remain' as their policy. I don't think that does much to support the thesis that we were voting to support Brexit, but it certainly does not support the idea that we were voting against it. I think any straw clutching will have to wait for the - undoubtedly inconclusive - outcome of the EU elections.
I voted LD because I am opposed to Brexit. I know 3 others who did the same. It is true we are middle class graduates who voted Remain but we all normally vote Tory. I can only speak for myself but I am inclined to vote Change UK in the European elections as I believe this approach is inferring I oppose Brexit but I don't want the UK to join the Euro, Schengen etc.
> @Sean_F said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > Lol @ the predictions of CUK demise and LD surge. Based on a protest vote at which CUK didn't stand and LD got 1% better than 2017. You think those indies etc are gonna pile on old uncle Vince now? Lol > > > > > > > > Well, I think most people on here have been stating that the CUKs are more "never will bes" rather than "has beens" for some time. > > > > > > > > And I think the prediction is simply that if you're a EUrophile and you want to vote for the EUlover most likely to win in the Euros then that now looks like the LDs. > > > > > > > > It doesn't look like an outrageous suggestion to me. > > > > > > The similarly good performance of the similarly named independents in these locals suggests to me TIG stand good chance of equaling the Lib Dems who benefitted yesterday from being present. They are still not well liked, as can be seen by their failure to breach 20% against the worst red blue line up since 1905 > > > > Support for Independents is usually based on very local factors and particular personalities. They are very much an assorted mixture of people with a wide range of backgrounds - often with no previous political involvement at all. It has always struck me that the idea of an Independent Group is a contradiction in terms anway! > > They can rise and fall very rapidly (eg the Boston by-pass party)
Indeed so - though in some areas being an Independent was - and to some extent continues to be - the norm. I grew up in Pembrokeshire - a county where all the local authorities were dominated by Independents. When I first became involved in politics in the early 1970s, I recall canvassing for Labour candidates for the County and District Councils and being met with many puzzled looks on doorsteps. ' What has politics got to do with Local Govt?' was a common query. It was simply not part of the culture, and whilst things have changed a little over the years, it remains the case that the majority of Councillors in such areas do not wear party labels. Candidates who do so are generally at a distinct disadvantage - and are often given support as individuals in spite of - rather than because of - their party labels.
> @thecommissioner said: > The Tory/Labour duopoly now finds itself under threat. > > It's reaching the point where it's in their mutual best interests to get Brexit done in some vaguely palatable way to enough of both sets of voters and hope that 2022 is far enough away for their deal to be forgotten/marginalised.
2 problems there:
1) Neither parties members or voters seem to be in a forgiving mood.
2) This is just the WA, then the real wrangling begins, Brexit argument doesn't end with the WA.
There is no way for either party to escape the Nemesis that follows Hubris.
Comments
> > @JosiasJessop said:
>
> > Yes, which makes sense, I just don't believe him about the antisemitism. Basically if it were not for Brexit he could look past what either he didn't think was an antisemitism problem before, or not a problem that could not be fixed.
>
> >
>
> > People can have more than one motive for an action, and there can be more than a little stiction involved. He has been in the Labour movement for over four decades, and it must be absolutely gutting to leave anything after so long - especially as you might lose long-standing friends in the process. For many people, their party allegiance is part of their identity.
>
> >
>
> > He might well have thought that anti-Semitism was a problem, but leaving would do nothing to help combat it. But when combined with Brexit and the absolute shower that lead the party, it became enough to overcome the stiction.
>
> >
>
> > Or he may have finally realised that the leadership had no intention to 'fix' the anti-Semitism problem, because they are the problem.
>
>
>
> I still don't buy it. People have been saying Corbyn was a problem in that regard for years. Brexit is his tipping point, that's fine, but crying about the anti-semitism being an issue now is weak.
>
>
> And more evidence comes forward regarding Corbyn and his ilk wrt anti-Semitism. It might easily be that the weight of evidence has got too much for him - as it should for all Labour members with a conscience.
Well now you're implying that ones who haven't already done what Robinson now has don't have a conscience, and I don't see what's wrong in someone setting the barrier for that judgement a few months back and so being skeptical of his conversion to conscience now.
> > @another_richard said:
>
> >
> > 1995 was a total disaster for the Conservatives.
> >
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
> >
> > Take a look at that map compared with today's. <
>
> ___
>
> Ooof. Yes, that is considerably worse. Also interesting how invisible the SNP are, in 1995 - compared to now.
>
>
>
> @Thayer5 said:
> > @another_richard said:
>
> >
> > 1995 was a total disaster for the Conservatives.
> >
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
> >
> > Take a look at that map compared with today's. <
>
> ___
>
> Ooof. Yes, that is considerably worse. Also interesting how invisible the SNP are, in 1995 - compared to now.
>
>
>
For the Conservatives, this was a 1991-type result, not a 1995 type result.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > > @thecommissioner said:
> > > The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK.
> >
> > I think that's right.
> >
> > This is likely to invigorate the LDs ahead of the Euros, and mean they probably grab the bulk of the pro-EU vote. It is by no means impossible that CUK fades to a couple of percent and the LDs get 15% or so.
> >
> > A result like this is by no means impossible:
> >
> > BRX 29
> > Lab 22
> > Con 16
> > LD 13
> > G 8
> > SNP/PC 5
> > UKIP 4
> > CUK 3 <
>
> ____
>
> That looks about right. Maybe BRX a bit higher and the Tories a bit lower.
>
> The CUKs were nuts not to reach some accord with the LDs. They will now disappear.
>
>
I dunno - 16% is a pretty low number for the Tories, well below their polling numbers. It basically says they'll only get half their vote out. And they did just get 29% in the locals.
But who knows?
And you are right about the CUKs. I just heard from a hedge fund buddy that they're doing the rounds of the City trying to raise money. Even for pro-EUropeans, I think pumping money into CUK is a hard call.
> > @paulyork64 said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @paulyork64 said:
> > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > @paulyork64 said:
> > > > > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > > > > Con have now past 1,300 losses!
> > > > > >
> > > > > > can we put this to bed soon so we can get down to the big betting event of the weekend. Who is "H"?
> > > > >
> > > > > Surely LoD will keep that big reveal until the final episode of the final (next) series?
> > > >
> > > > I thought Jed M had said he wasn't writing another one? could have misheard. Skys rules say bet will be settled once someone is charged and found guilty. a lot of ground to cover in one episode unless they cover it with subtitles at the end like in early series. also dead heat rule applies but not sure how there can be more than one H. more than one more bad apple certainly tho.
> > >
> > > According to WP, the BBC has ordered a sixth series, which I am fairly sure is intended to be the last.
> > >
> > > The obvious way to develop the story this series is for Hastings to end up looking like he is H and his career is in ruins, then the final series sees his two trusty team members prove his innocence and unmask the real H. Just a guess.
> > >
> >
> > a fair guess. glad there's a series 6 but sounds like there might be a wait. I thought he was gonna switch to just doing more bodyguard after its success. I hope they resolve H for this series. Dear God there'll be more bent coppers for S6.
>
> Just a shout to say that any who like LoD and Bodyguard should catch up with Jed's excellent series Bodies on I player.
> Criminally ignored when it went out on BBC 3 in the mid naughties
> Mercurio reckons it is his best work.
I never knew. And I will thank u
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK.
>
> Indeed - there was at least a danger CUK might outpoll or poll similarly to LD in the Euros, but a number of waverers would I think be bolstered by this and stick with the LDs.
Its a vanity project in search of a purpose.
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK.
>
> I think that's right.
>
> This is likely to invigorate the LDs ahead of the Euros, and mean they probably grab the bulk of the pro-EU vote. It is by no means impossible that CUK fades to a couple of percent and the LDs get 15% or so.
>
> A result like this is by no means impossible:
>
> BRX 29
> Lab 22
> Con 16
> LD 13
> G 8
> SNP/PC 5
> UKIP 4
> CUK 3
>
I don’t think the Lib Dems on 13% would be a sign of invigoration. Your LD + Green + CUK total is only 24% when they’re on 28% in the latest YouGov.
I doubt they will be heading back to 30 seats any time soon, but getting to the high teens or twenty looks like an achievable goal for then in 2022. (Or 2019, depending on how things go...)
> The Brexiters are now clutching at the smallest straws from today. Bless.
Let's see what happens in three weeks
> > @another_richard said:
>
> >
> > 1995 was a total disaster for the Conservatives.
> >
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
> >
> > Take a look at that map compared with today's. <
>
> ___
>
> Ooof. Yes, that is considerably worse. Also interesting how invisible the SNP are, in 1995 - compared to now.
>
_____________________
BBC R4 News is convinced that the two main parties are being punished for 'not delivering Brexit fast enough'. Anyone know of an alternative source of impartial radio news? It could be that voters on balance no longer want to leave having seen how long it takes and how chaotic the process is.
So maybe only >30% for Green/PC/SNP/LD/CUK on 23 May will deliver a clear message.
6,100,000 signatures for Revoke - yes, deduct the dodgy ones - was a lot of people if they all turn out. Only 600,000 signed the No Deal petition by the time it closed and yes I'm sure it also had some dodgy signatures.
> Broken the 1300 barrier - now almost exactly double my prediction. Glad I didn't bet on it.
>
> Labour shitting the bed is hiding the terribleness of the Tory position, gaining handfuls of seats in Sunderland like places but losing tsunamis of councils to the Lib Dems.
They haven't. They've won three times as many seats as the Lib Dems.
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK.
>
> I think that's right.
>
> This is likely to invigorate the LDs ahead of the Euros, and mean they probably grab the bulk of the pro-EU vote. It is by no means impossible that CUK fades to a couple of percent and the LDs get 15% or so.
>
> A result like this is by no means impossible:
>
> BRX 29
> Lab 22
> Con 16
> LD 13
> G 8
> SNP/PC 5
> UKIP 4
> CUK 3
>
I think after today's performance, Labour will be no more than 3% ahead of the Conservatives.
But both parties will be DESPERATE to avoid the vote.
> Lol @ the predictions of CUK demise and LD surge. Based on a protest vote at which CUK didn't stand and LD got 1% better than 2017. You think those indies etc are gonna pile on old uncle Vince now? Lol
Well, I think most people on here have been stating that the CUKs are more "never will bes" rather than "has beens" for some time.
And I think the prediction is simply that if you're a EUrophile and you want to vote for the EUlover most likely to win in the Euros then that now looks like the LDs.
It doesn't look like an outrageous suggestion to me.
> Lol @ the predictions of CUK demise and LD surge. Based on a protest vote at which CUK didn't stand and LD got 1% better than 2017. You think those indies etc are gonna pile on old uncle Vince now? Lol
Not saying CUK have no change. But a bad or middling night for the LDs would perhaps have given CUK a boost as an alternative. LD members riding high and some former voters being impressed might make tempting them aware to CUK harder.
https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1124322905385512962?s=21
> But who knows?
>
> And you are right about the CUKs. I just heard from a hedge fund buddy that they're doing the rounds of the City trying to raise money. Even for pro-EUropeans, I think pumping money into CUK is a hard call. <
_____
The main problem for the CUKs (apart from all the other problems, like racism, incompetence, lack of brand clarity, etc) is that they don't have one important figurehead - a natural leader.
Farage has been able to bring his fanbase with him to TBP, and it is a large fanbase - he is the sixth most liked leader in the country. and THE most liked leader of a minor party. Sure he is hated by many more, but that doesn't matter. He has national salience and he has loyal followers.
https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/politicians-political-figures/all
If you examine this same list you have to go down to "140th most popular" to find the first CUK - Heidi Alexander.
To most people they are completely invisible.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > Lol @ the predictions of CUK demise and LD surge. Based on a protest vote at which CUK didn't stand and LD got 1% better than 2017. You think those indies etc are gonna pile on old uncle Vince now? Lol
>
> Well, I think most people on here have been stating that the CUKs are more "never will bes" rather than "has beens" for some time.
>
> And I think the prediction is simply that if you're a EUrophile and you want to vote for the EUlover most likely to win in the Euros then that now looks like the LDs.
>
> It doesn't look like an outrageous suggestion to me.
The similarly good performance of the similarly named independents in these locals suggests to me TIG stand good chance of equaling the Lib Dems who benefitted yesterday from being present. They are still not well liked, as can be seen by their failure to breach 20% against the worst red blue line up since 1905
But again you miss (avoid?) my general point: people can have multiple motivations for an action - and in his case, what must have been a very hard and heartbreaking decision for him. Any one factor might not have been enough to trigger the move, but a deterioration in one, some or all of them might have been.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > > @thecommissioner said:
> > > The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK.
> >
> > I think that's right.
> >
> > This is likely to invigorate the LDs ahead of the Euros, and mean they probably grab the bulk of the pro-EU vote. It is by no means impossible that CUK fades to a couple of percent and the LDs get 15% or so.
> >
> > A result like this is by no means impossible:
> >
> > BRX 29
> > Lab 22
> > Con 16
> > LD 13
> > G 8
> > SNP/PC 5
> > UKIP 4
> > CUK 3
> >
>
> I don’t think the Lib Dems on 13% would be a sign of invigoration. Your LD + Green + CUK total is only 24% when they’re on 28% in the latest YouGov.
There's a vote of 25-30% for parties totally opposed to Brexit. Either it has to be perfectly balanced to achieve proportionate representation, or one of them has to break out of the pack.
> > @Alistair said:
> > Broken the 1300 barrier - now almost exactly double my prediction. Glad I didn't bet on it.
> >
> > Labour shitting the bed is hiding the terribleness of the Tory position, gaining handfuls of seats in Sunderland like places but losing tsunamis of councils to the Lib Dems.
>
> They haven't. They've won three times as many seats as the Lib Dems.
The Conservatives still won more than 40% of seats contested, and still dominate councils across the country. Compare than to 1995 when they had far fewer (like a fifth of the number) councils than the LDs.
This was not a good night for the Conservatives, but we forget that 2015 was an excellent year for them.
> > @Thayer5 said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> >
> > >
> > > 1995 was a total disaster for the Conservatives.
> > >
> > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
> > >
> > > Take a look at that map compared with today's. <
> >
> > ___
> >
> > Ooof. Yes, that is considerably worse. Also interesting how invisible the SNP are, in 1995 - compared to now.
> >
> _____________________
>
> BBC R4 News is convinced that the two main parties are being punished for 'not delivering Brexit fast enough'. Anyone know of an alternative source of impartial radio news? It could be that voters on balance no longer want to leave having seen how long it takes and how chaotic the process is.
>
> So maybe only >30% for Green/PC/SNP/LD/CUK on 23 May will deliver a clear message.
>
> 6,100,000 signatures for Revoke - yes, deduct the dodgy ones - was a lot of people if they all turn out. Only 600,000 signed the No Deal petition by the time it closed and yes I'm sure it also had some dodgy signatures.
If May and Corbyn think that these results are an endorsement for a speedy Brexit, what do they think an endorsement for Remain would have looked like?
> > @Thayer5 said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> >
> > >
> > > 1995 was a total disaster for the Conservatives.
> > >
> > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
> > >
> > > Take a look at that map compared with today's. <
> >
> > ___
> >
> > Ooof. Yes, that is considerably worse. Also interesting how invisible the SNP are, in 1995 - compared to now.
> >
> >
> >
>
> > @Thayer5 said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> >
> > >
> > > 1995 was a total disaster for the Conservatives.
> > >
> > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
> > >
> > > Take a look at that map compared with today's. <
> >
> > ___
> >
> > Ooof. Yes, that is considerably worse. Also interesting how invisible the SNP are, in 1995 - compared to now.
> >
> >
> >
>
> For the Conservatives, this was a 1991-type result, not a 1995 type result.
>
Interesting to compare the individual councils then and now:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_United_Kingdom_local_elections
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > @thecommissioner said:
> > > > The Lib Dems result is not good news for CUK.
> > >
> > > I think that's right.
> > >
> > > This is likely to invigorate the LDs ahead of the Euros, and mean they probably grab the bulk of the pro-EU vote. It is by no means impossible that CUK fades to a couple of percent and the LDs get 15% or so.
> > >
> > > A result like this is by no means impossible:
> > >
> > > BRX 29
> > > Lab 22
> > > Con 16
> > > LD 13
> > > G 8
> > > SNP/PC 5
> > > UKIP 4
> > > CUK 3
> > >
> >
> > I don’t think the Lib Dems on 13% would be a sign of invigoration. Your LD + Green + CUK total is only 24% when they’re on 28% in the latest YouGov.
>
> There's a vote of 25-30% for parties totally opposed to Brexit. Either it has to be perfectly balanced to achieve proportionate representation, or one of them has to break out of the pack.
Places (most places in the UK) that are not LD arent gonna go LD. They might go Change as it is new, formed from the big two and remainy. I see no evidence of the LDs breaking out anywhere brand new for them
The Lib Dems now have the advantage of a bit of favourable press and quite a few people have just given them their vote. There must be a good chance they will do the same in three weeks because CUK are no more europhile than them.
Tuition fees are still a drag on the brand, but the under 30 age group will vote Green, not CUK.
> Well now you're implying that ones who haven't already done what Robinson now has don't have a conscience, and I don't see what's wrong in someone setting the barrier for that judgement a few months back and so being skeptical of his conversion to conscience now.
>
> On your former point, I find it hard to see how people who see themselves as supporting the Labour Party - a party that has always claimed (often correctly) to have right and morality on its side - can continue in a party that has so mired itself in anti-Semitism and general nastiness. Instead, as we sadly see on here, we see some excusing and denying anti-Semitism or employing 'look, squirrel!' tactics.
>
> But again you miss (avoid?) my general point: people can have multiple motivations for an action - and in his case, what must have been a very hard and heartbreaking decision for him. Any one factor might not have been enough to trigger the move, but a deterioration in one, some or all of them might have been.
I don't think I am avoiding that there are multiple motivations. I just think that the fact the other motivation was not enough for him to quit the party diminishes how much it can be taken as a mattering all that much to him. It was not enough to make him quit, ergo it was not that big a deal.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @Alistair said:
> > > Broken the 1300 barrier - now almost exactly double my prediction. Glad I didn't bet on it.
> > >
> > > Labour shitting the bed is hiding the terribleness of the Tory position, gaining handfuls of seats in Sunderland like places but losing tsunamis of councils to the Lib Dems.
> >
> > They haven't. They've won three times as many seats as the Lib Dems.
>
> The Conservatives still won more than 40% of seats contested, and still dominate councils across the country. Compare than to 1995 when they had far fewer (like a fifth of the number) councils than the LDs.
>
> This was not a good night for the Conservatives, but we forget that 2015 was an excellent year for them.
For the Lib Dems, today was like the Conservatives regaining councils like Hertsmere, Bromley, and New Forest in the late nineties, early nought is. It's encouraging, but they are the low hanging fruit.
> Even within the yougov polling, there's some geographical and age related splits between the Lib Dems, Greens and CUK.
>
> The Lib Dems now have the advantage of a bit of favourable press and quite a few people have just given them their vote. There must be a good chance they will do the same in three weeks because CUK are no more europhile than them.
>
> Tuition fees are still a drag on the brand, but the under 30 age group will vote Green.
I think tuition fees has now been forgotten about, the world's moved on and I don't see it being a roadblock to the Lib Dems garnering younger voters, particularly as many of them will have been mere children when the Lib Dems flip-flopped.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/not-just-a-flash-in-the-pan-why-voters-backed-the-green-party-in-the-local-elections_uk_5ccc3175e4b0d1239551d3fa?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvL2VGb3FzZm1EaEY&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEEccDVnrG1rFvskl_NeNWQ3K2o7YJCJsFgrelklaXw8lDuML1PLYurVli_1jrHdTQRH1gJD56wGR0wrpuKqmsoiYV3yfbisBebOMnQnfep_eQ6SP3sEPQOszbsdup6fF0FVOE1bNBBwFY6Rn5uFtABRUnT6OsNbAHIMzKZJPvUd
> Broken the 1300 barrier - now almost exactly double my prediction. Glad I didn't bet on it.
>
> Labour shitting the bed is hiding the terribleness of the Tory position, gaining handfuls of seats in Sunderland like places but losing tsunamis of councils to the Lib Dems.
Could you give a list of these 'tsunamis of councils' the LibDems have gained from the Conservatives ?
> FPT - Many thanks for the commiserations on my sub optimal result in deepest ex blue Surrey. Majority against was 300 at the upper end of expectations, though I knew I’d lose. But for one elector, it was obviously personal for he/she scrawled in big black pencil TRAITOR against my name, which I thought a mite harsh. Must have known my Fenian background......
>
> Commiserations, JohnO.
>
> You give a lot to your local community and I hope you’re back again soon.
Many thanks but I’m still a member of Surrey County Council whose term doesn’t end until 2021, when, you never know, there might be a Conservative Party that’s recovered some vestigial semblance of competence. But that’s a big ask.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > @Alistair said:
> > > > Broken the 1300 barrier - now almost exactly double my prediction. Glad I didn't bet on it.
> > > >
> > > > Labour shitting the bed is hiding the terribleness of the Tory position, gaining handfuls of seats in Sunderland like places but losing tsunamis of councils to the Lib Dems.
> > >
> > > They haven't. They've won three times as many seats as the Lib Dems.
> >
> > The Conservatives still won more than 40% of seats contested, and still dominate councils across the country. Compare than to 1995 when they had far fewer (like a fifth of the number) councils than the LDs.
> >
> > This was not a good night for the Conservatives, but we forget that 2015 was an excellent year for them.
>
> For the Lib Dems, today was like the Conservatives regaining councils like Hertsmere, Bromley, and New Forest in the late nineties, early nought is. It's encouraging, but they are the low hanging fruit.
So you are saying that the tide has changed and we are going to see years of serial Tory losses?
I see now you have passed through the denial stage and are entering the bargaining phase.
LOL
> Farage is now being put under enormous pressure from his own side to emulate the Lib Dem Renaissance. It’s probably not what he’d have wanted. The Brexit Party now has to secure at least 55% of the vote in the Euros to avoid taunts of choking.
Very funny.
LD 21 (+9)
Lab 17 (+2)
Greens 4 (=)
Ind 3 (+1)
Con 2 (-12)
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @Alistair said:
> > > Broken the 1300 barrier - now almost exactly double my prediction. Glad I didn't bet on it.
> > >
> > > Labour shitting the bed is hiding the terribleness of the Tory position, gaining handfuls of seats in Sunderland like places but losing tsunamis of councils to the Lib Dems.
> >
> > They haven't. They've won three times as many seats as the Lib Dems.
>
> The Conservatives still won more than 40% of seats contested, and still dominate councils across the country. Compare than to 1995 when they had far fewer (like a fifth of the number) councils than the LDs.
>
> This was not a good night for the Conservatives, but we forget that 2015 was an excellent year for them.
As I said below, it’s actually a terrible result, ameliorated by the poor performance of others. Give the Tories precisely the same votes in a scenario where either Labour achieved an NEV 5-10% higher or the LibDems got back into the 20%s and the Tory result would have been way worse. Many Tory councillors were saved by the range of alternatives on offer (esp all the Indys) and the split of the vote between them.
> The Brexiters are now clutching at the smallest straws from today. Bless.
The election that counts for Brexit is the European Elections. Which if the Brexit Party win the REMAINers have to admit no one has changed their mind on Brexit.
> One council to go...
12 to go including NI
> Let's not overlook the fact that the LDs are named the party of local government often, for those pissed off with the big two nationally, a local election protest for thd LDs is 'safe pair of temporary hands' territory
So, what would a public swing against Brexit have looked like if you think this was a protest?
> @rcs1000 said:
>
> > But who knows?
> >
> > And you are right about the CUKs. I just heard from a hedge fund buddy that they're doing the rounds of the City trying to raise money. Even for pro-EUropeans, I think pumping money into CUK is a hard call. <
>
> _____
>
> The main problem for the CUKs (apart from all the other problems, like racism, incompetence, lack of brand clarity, etc) is that they don't have one important figurehead - a natural leader.
>
> Farage has been able to bring his fanbase with him to TBP, and it is a large fanbase - he is the sixth most liked leader in the country. and THE most liked leader of a minor party. Sure he is hated by many more, but that doesn't matter. He has national salience and he has loyal followers.
>
> https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/politicians-political-figures/all
>
> If you examine this same list you have to go down to "140th most popular" to find the first CUK - Heidi Alexander.
>
> To most people they are completely invisible.
>
>
If you can’t get her name right, that’s a bad sign as well.
>
> Places (most places in the UK) that are not LD arent gonna go LD. They might go Change as it is new, formed from the big two and remainy. I see no evidence of the LDs breaking out anywhere brand new for them
Chelmsford?
Time's up, I think:
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1124367239447220224
https://www.lancaster.gov.uk/the-council-and-democracy/voting-and-elections/election-results-2019
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
>
> > The Brexiters are now clutching at the smallest straws from today. Bless.
>
>
>
> The election that counts for Brexit is the European Elections. Which if the Brexit Party win the REMAINers have to admit no one has changed their mind on Brexit.
>
> If the Brexit Party gets less than 52% of the vote then we are perfectly entitled to conclude that many have changed their mind.
Lol. Good one.
> York
>
> LD 21 (+9)
> Lab 17 (+2)
> Greens 4 (=)
> Ind 3 (+1)
> Con 2 (-12)
In a city like York, I expect that is curtains for the Tories. I remember when Cambridge had a Tory MP and Tory councillors, and progressively they all lost their seats, never to return.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > Let's not overlook the fact that the LDs are named the party of local government often, for those pissed off with the big two nationally, a local election protest for thd LDs is 'safe pair of temporary hands' territory
>
> So, what would a public swing against Brexit have looked like if you think this was a protest?
I'd say it's more likely leavers sat on their hands waiting for a chance to fellate Nigel in 3 weeks.
Also this was the fury of Tory remainers, not some surge in opinion I'd suggest
Remain might be narrowly ahead RN but it's hard to tell.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > > @Alistair said:
> > > > > Broken the 1300 barrier - now almost exactly double my prediction. Glad I didn't bet on it.
> > > > >
> > > > > Labour shitting the bed is hiding the terribleness of the Tory position, gaining handfuls of seats in Sunderland like places but losing tsunamis of councils to the Lib Dems.
> > > >
> > > > They haven't. They've won three times as many seats as the Lib Dems.
> > >
> > > The Conservatives still won more than 40% of seats contested, and still dominate councils across the country. Compare than to 1995 when they had far fewer (like a fifth of the number) councils than the LDs.
> > >
> > > This was not a good night for the Conservatives, but we forget that 2015 was an excellent year for them.
> >
> > For the Lib Dems, today was like the Conservatives regaining councils like Hertsmere, Bromley, and New Forest in the late nineties, early nought is. It's encouraging, but they are the low hanging fruit.
>
> So you are saying that the tide has changed and we are going to see years of serial Tory losses?
>
> I see now you have passed through the denial stage and are entering the bargaining phase.
Tides ebb and flow.
In certain respects these results should have happened in the county council elections of 2017 ie mid term of the Conservative government.
But the May bounce delayed things by two years.
> Let's not overlook the fact that the LDs are named the party of local government often, for those pissed off with the big two nationally, a local election protest for thd LDs is 'safe pair of temporary hands' territory
The chart at the top of the page is interesting. The LDs got between 20 and 30% in every local election (on an NEV basis) between 1981 and 2019 <b>except</b>:
1. In the aftermath of the 1987 election, the collapse of the Alliance and the creation of the LDs.
2. During, and in the aftermath of, the coalition.
This election they came in just shy of 20%. If I were a LD, and I'm not, I would be heartened by this election.
It's the best NEV since the creation of the coalition.
They didn't just make up for 2015's seat losses, but a bunch of the losses from 2011 too.
They won councils where they previously had MPs.
This doesn't presage some miraculous recovery. But you have to be willfully blind not to admit they've had a good night.
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > York
> >
> > LD 21 (+9)
> > Lab 17 (+2)
> > Greens 4 (=)
> > Ind 3 (+1)
> > Con 2 (-12)
>
> In a city like York, I expect that is curtains for the Tories. I remember when Cambridge had a Tory MP and Tory councillors, and progressively they all lost their seats, never to return.
Today Leicester lost its last Tory councillor, but did gain an LD, as the sole representative of the rest of the parties in Red Leicester. Useful LD gains elsewhere in the county though.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > Let's not overlook the fact that the LDs are named the party of local government often, for those pissed off with the big two nationally, a local election protest for thd LDs is 'safe pair of temporary hands' territory
>
> The chart at the top of the page is interesting. The LDs got between 20 and 30% in every local election (on an NEV basis) between 1981 and 2019 <b>except</b>:
>
> 1. In the aftermath of the 1987 election, the collapse of the Alliance and the creation of the LDs.
> 2. During, and in the aftermath of, the coalition.
>
> This election they came in just shy of 20%. If I were a LD, and I'm not, I would be heartened by this election.
>
> It's the best NEV since the creation of the coalition.
> They didn't just make up for 2015's seat losses, but a bunch of the losses from 2011 too.
> They won councils where they previously had MPs.
>
> This doesn't presage some miraculous recovery. But you have to be willfully blind not to admit they've had a good night.
They did indeed. From a low base. They may be on track for 25 seats at a GE. If they can avoid Swinson and Moran as leader
> May looks terrible in this clip. On the edge.
>
>
>
> Time's up, I think:
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1124367239447220224
>
>
>
> Theresa May is HYUFD in a skirt
I missed the bit where she took some obscure polling detail and spun it into a fantastical future certainty?
Conservative 3559 -1331
Labour 2021 -81
Liberal Democrat 1344 +700
Green 264 +193
UKIP 31 -145
Others 1178 +662
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > York
> >
> > LD 21 (+9)
> > Lab 17 (+2)
> > Greens 4 (=)
> > Ind 3 (+1)
> > Con 2 (-12)
>
> In a city like York, I expect that is curtains for the Tories. I remember when Cambridge had a Tory MP and Tory councillors, and progressively they all lost their seats, never to return.
The Conservatives were wiped out in York in the 1990s and then recovered.
The council area is large enough for them to return.
> The all new SDP did well then
They only fielded about six candidates and have zero money, so a bit harsh to expect movement.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > > @Alistair said:
> > > > > Broken the 1300 barrier - now almost exactly double my prediction. Glad I didn't bet on it.
> > > > >
> > > > > Labour shitting the bed is hiding the terribleness of the Tory position, gaining handfuls of seats in Sunderland like places but losing tsunamis of councils to the Lib Dems.
> > > >
> > > > They haven't. They've won three times as many seats as the Lib Dems.
> > >
> > > The Conservatives still won more than 40% of seats contested, and still dominate councils across the country. Compare than to 1995 when they had far fewer (like a fifth of the number) councils than the LDs.
> > >
> > > This was not a good night for the Conservatives, but we forget that 2015 was an excellent year for them.
> >
> > For the Lib Dems, today was like the Conservatives regaining councils like Hertsmere, Bromley, and New Forest in the late nineties, early nought is. It's encouraging, but they are the low hanging fruit.
>
> So you are saying that the tide has changed and we are going to see years of serial Tory losses?
>
> I see now you have passed through the denial stage and are entering the bargaining phase.
The longer the Conservatives are in office, the worse one expect their performance in local elections to be.
Poor for Labour
Dreadful for UKIP,
Superb for Greens, Lib Dems and independents.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > The Brexiters are now clutching at the smallest straws from today. Bless.
>
> The election that counts for Brexit is the European Elections. Which if the Brexit Party win the REMAINers have to admit no one has changed their mind on Brexit.
With all due respect, it is not their position, but the vote shares that matter.
So,
Con 31%
Brexit 29%
Labour 20%
The others 20%
Is telling you something very different to:
Brexit 15%
Con 14%
Lab 14%
LD 14%
CH 14%
G 14%
(Silly example, I know, but also true.)
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> >
> > Places (most places in the UK) that are not LD arent gonna go LD. They might go Change as it is new, formed from the big two and remainy. I see no evidence of the LDs breaking out anywhere brand new for them
>
> Chelmsford?
Tbf that was a target seat when I was young, and the Libs came close to taking it at least once, a long time ago. Similarly they used to do well on the council. Other areas of former LibDem strength in Essex (Colchester, Brentwood, Southend) had more modest advances.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > The all new SDP did well then
>
> They only fielded about six candidates and have zero money, so a bit harsh to expect movement.
Makes you wonder why Liddle and co jumped on board.
They have no elected representatives afaik their east riding councillor has disappeared
They might have one in port Talbot
> > @KentRising said:
> > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > The all new SDP did well then
> >
> > They only fielded about six candidates and have zero money, so a bit harsh to expect movement.
>
> Makes you wonder why Liddle and co jumped on board.
> They have no elected representatives afaik their east riding councillor has disappeared
> They might have one in port Talbot
Young @isam is keen on them.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > Let's not overlook the fact that the LDs are named the party of local government often, for those pissed off with the big two nationally, a local election protest for thd LDs is 'safe pair of temporary hands' territory
>
> The chart at the top of the page is interesting. The LDs got between 20 and 30% in every local election (on an NEV basis) between 1981 and 2019 <b>except</b>:
>
> 1. In the aftermath of the 1987 election, the collapse of the Alliance and the creation of the LDs.
> 2. During, and in the aftermath of, the coalition.
>
> This election they came in just shy of 20%. If I were a LD, and I'm not, I would be heartened by this election.
>
> It's the best NEV since the creation of the coalition.
> They didn't just make up for 2015's seat losses, but a bunch of the losses from 2011 too.
> They won councils where they previously had MPs.
>
> This doesn't presage some miraculous recovery. But you have to be willfully blind not to admit they've had a good night.
Its a solid recovery but nothing more than they should be expected to do after four years out of government and with the other parties in such a mess.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > Lol @ the predictions of CUK demise and LD surge. Based on a protest vote at which CUK didn't stand and LD got 1% better than 2017. You think those indies etc are gonna pile on old uncle Vince now? Lol
> >
> > Well, I think most people on here have been stating that the CUKs are more "never will bes" rather than "has beens" for some time.
> >
> > And I think the prediction is simply that if you're a EUrophile and you want to vote for the EUlover most likely to win in the Euros then that now looks like the LDs.
> >
> > It doesn't look like an outrageous suggestion to me.
>
> The similarly good performance of the similarly named independents in these locals suggests to me TIG stand good chance of equaling the Lib Dems who benefitted yesterday from being present. They are still not well liked, as can be seen by their failure to breach 20% against the worst red blue line up since 1905
Support for Independents is usually based on very local factors and particular personalities. They are very much an assorted mixture of people with a wide range of backgrounds - often with no previous political involvement at all. It has always struck me that the idea of an Independent Group is a contradiction in terms anway!
> Tories lose a grand total of 1,331 seats, Labour only lose 81 seats.
UKIP have managed to lose 145 so far. Lib Dems on a satisfying round gain of 700.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > Lol @ the predictions of CUK demise and LD surge. Based on a protest vote at which CUK didn't stand and LD got 1% better than 2017. You think those indies etc are gonna pile on old uncle Vince now? Lol
> > >
> > > Well, I think most people on here have been stating that the CUKs are more "never will bes" rather than "has beens" for some time.
> > >
> > > And I think the prediction is simply that if you're a EUrophile and you want to vote for the EUlover most likely to win in the Euros then that now looks like the LDs.
> > >
> > > It doesn't look like an outrageous suggestion to me.
> >
> > The similarly good performance of the similarly named independents in these locals suggests to me TIG stand good chance of equaling the Lib Dems who benefitted yesterday from being present. They are still not well liked, as can be seen by their failure to breach 20% against the worst red blue line up since 1905
>
> Support for Independents is usually based on very local factors and particular personalities. They are very much an assorted mixture of people with a wide range of backgrounds - often with no previous political involvement at all. It has always struck me that the idea of an Independent Group is a contradiction in terms anway!
They can rise and fall very rapidly (eg the Boston by-pass party)
Labour lose 6 councils
LDs gain 10 councils
> Terrible for the Tories,
> Poor for Labour
> Dreadful for UKIP,
> Superb for Greens, Lib Dems and independents.
Did you ever expect Blyth to go Labour on the same day that Killamarsh went Conservative ?
> Tories lose a grand total of 1,331 seats, Labour only lose 81 seats.
Yet both are on an NEV of 28%
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > @KentRising said:
> > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > The all new SDP did well then
> > >
> > > They only fielded about six candidates and have zero money, so a bit harsh to expect movement.
> >
> > Makes you wonder why Liddle and co jumped on board.
> > They have no elected representatives afaik their east riding councillor has disappeared
> > They might have one in port Talbot
>
> Young @isam is keen on them.
I quite like the SDP in their new guise and so would argue it's a case of they could be a popular party it's just that no one has heard of them yet! They've had zero national coverage and have no Farage-esque personality leader to attract headlines. I don't know how they proceed other than focussing on the locals and trying to create a 'heartland' somewhere and build up slowly.
In fairness Patrick 0'Flynn may have achieved a four-figure vote in the Peterborough by-election if the Brexit Party hadn't decided to piss on his chips.
And Labour's anti-Semitism crisis has not remained static, but has deepened with time. For instance, he might have decided that the recent appointment to Labour's complaints showed that the party leadership were not interested in addressing the issue at all.
But as an aside, afaicr his statement mentions Labour's position on Brexit as being one of the reasons for his leaving, but he does not make it clear which direction he would prefer. I'm guessing he's pro-EU, but is that right?
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > The Brexiters are now clutching at the smallest straws from today. Bless.
>
> Let's see what happens in three weeks
The majority of votes when turned into projected national share went to parties that do not have 'remain' as their policy. I don't think that does much to support the thesis that we were voting to support Brexit, but it certainly does not support the idea that we were voting against it. I think any straw clutching will have to wait for the - undoubtedly inconclusive - outcome of the EU elections.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1124339705091428354?s=21
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > >
> > > Places (most places in the UK) that are not LD arent gonna go LD. They might go Change as it is new, formed from the big two and remainy. I see no evidence of the LDs breaking out anywhere brand new for them
> >
> > Chelmsford?
>
> Tbf that was a target seat when I was young, and the Libs came close to taking it at least once, a long time ago. Similarly they used to do well on the council. Other areas of former LibDem strength in Essex (Colchester, Brentwood, Southend) had more modest advances.
In Colchester Labour now appears to be the main challenger at a General Election.
> Tories lose 44 councils
> Labour lose 6 councils
> LDs gain 10 councils
NOC gain 27?
RA gain one.
> LDs hit 700 gains
Amazing night for the yellow peril!
> May looks terrible in this clip. On the edge.
>
>
>
> Time's up, I think:
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1124367239447220224
>
>
>
> Theresa May is HYUFD in a skirt
Is there conclusive evidence that HYUFD doesn't wear a skirt?
It's reaching the point where it's in their mutual best interests to get Brexit done in some vaguely palatable way to enough of both sets of voters and hope that 2022 is far enough away for their deal to be forgotten/marginalised.
> Faisal is on the money
>
> https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1124339705091428354
To say that a mid term government might lose its majority isn't revelatory.
For example in 2012 the Conservatives were 7% behind Labour:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_Kingdom_local_elections
Remember EICIPM
> Evening all! Got absolutely demolished
Sorry to hear that. Who won your ward?
> > @RobD said:
> > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > The Brexiters are now clutching at the smallest straws from today. Bless.
> >
> > Let's see what happens in three weeks
>
> The majority of votes when turned into projected national share went to parties that do not have 'remain' as their policy. I don't think that does much to support the thesis that we were voting to support Brexit, but it certainly does not support the idea that we were voting against it. I think any straw clutching will have to wait for the - undoubtedly inconclusive - outcome of the EU elections.
I voted LD because I am opposed to Brexit. I know 3 others who did the same. It is true we are middle class graduates who voted Remain but we all normally vote Tory. I can only speak for myself but I am inclined to vote Change UK in the European elections as I believe this approach is inferring I oppose Brexit but I don't want the UK to join the Euro, Schengen etc.
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > > Lol @ the predictions of CUK demise and LD surge. Based on a protest vote at which CUK didn't stand and LD got 1% better than 2017. You think those indies etc are gonna pile on old uncle Vince now? Lol
> > > >
> > > > Well, I think most people on here have been stating that the CUKs are more "never will bes" rather than "has beens" for some time.
> > > >
> > > > And I think the prediction is simply that if you're a EUrophile and you want to vote for the EUlover most likely to win in the Euros then that now looks like the LDs.
> > > >
> > > > It doesn't look like an outrageous suggestion to me.
> > >
> > > The similarly good performance of the similarly named independents in these locals suggests to me TIG stand good chance of equaling the Lib Dems who benefitted yesterday from being present. They are still not well liked, as can be seen by their failure to breach 20% against the worst red blue line up since 1905
> >
> > Support for Independents is usually based on very local factors and particular personalities. They are very much an assorted mixture of people with a wide range of backgrounds - often with no previous political involvement at all. It has always struck me that the idea of an Independent Group is a contradiction in terms anway!
>
> They can rise and fall very rapidly (eg the Boston by-pass party)
Indeed so - though in some areas being an Independent was - and to some extent continues to be - the norm. I grew up in Pembrokeshire - a county where all the local authorities were dominated by Independents. When I first became involved in politics in the early 1970s, I recall canvassing for Labour candidates for the County and District Councils and being met with many puzzled looks on doorsteps. ' What has politics got to do with Local Govt?' was a common query. It was simply not part of the culture, and whilst things have changed a little over the years, it remains the case that the majority of Councillors in such areas do not wear party labels. Candidates who do so are generally at a distinct disadvantage - and are often given support as individuals in spite of - rather than because of - their party labels.
> The Tory/Labour duopoly now finds itself under threat.
>
> It's reaching the point where it's in their mutual best interests to get Brexit done in some vaguely palatable way to enough of both sets of voters and hope that 2022 is far enough away for their deal to be forgotten/marginalised.
2 problems there:
1) Neither parties members or voters seem to be in a forgiving mood.
2) This is just the WA, then the real wrangling begins, Brexit argument doesn't end with the WA.
There is no way for either party to escape the Nemesis that follows Hubris.