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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Selling time. What passes for Theresa May’s strategy

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  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,115
    Pulpstar said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Makes a General Election possible for the Tories politically.
    But it doesn't sort out the problems within the Conservative party unless the new leader commits to deselecting all MPs who would oppose the official policy.
  • Options
    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    So what is this 'decent brexit' and how would it be implemented ?
    One which does not make us a rule taker from Brussels and takes true control of our borders our laws and our money. And restores sovereignty and accountability to those who rule over us.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    So what is this 'decent brexit' and how would it be implemented ?
    One which does not make us a rule taker from Brussels and takes true control of our borders our laws and our money. And restores sovereignty and accountability to those who rule over us.
    What's your plan to take true control of the Irish border?
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Andrew said:

    rcs1000 said:


    5. And even if you can get that sorted, what happens if the election results in a Hung Parliament?


    More a "when" than an "if" imo.
    Yep
  • Options
    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    Who you backing?
    Anyone but the two clowns running the tories and labour 😁
    Nobody you can name.

    Is it a secret?
    If I had to choose then Boris or Leadsom
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    1st law to be passed when this shitshow is sorted - MPs currently serving a sentence should not be able to vote in parliament.

    Someone’s rattled.
    MPs serving a sentence shouldn't be able to vote ? Is that really such a controversial opinion ?
    No
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,892
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Lp

    kjohnw said:

    nico67 said:

    kjohnw said:

    Foxy said:

    kjohnw said:

    IanB2 said:

    ERG pro-filibuster amendment falls 105 v 509

    Tonight is the night ERG have been reduced to a rump of bitter losers
    No 23/6/17 was the night it happened. When May's incompetence ensured the saboteurs won and the Remainers had a majority in Parliament.

    Don't expect this Parliament to have the last word though.
    The anger in this country is rising , Parliament and MPs are seen as the blockers of brexit and out of touch with ordinary people . They want us to think again because they think we gave the wrong answer last time . They are destroying our democracy
    On the contrary, our politicians are doing a marvelous job at representing the British public in all its contradictory and irreconcilable beliefs. Westminster has taken back control. Isn't that what the people wanted?
    The people voted to leave . Remain lost . They have not enacted the people’s wishes . In a democracy the majority wins . Leave won . To subvert that vote is democratic betrayal . There will be riots on the streets if brexit is betrayed
    Take a chill pill ! I’m a Remainer and just want an orderly exit and a deal . Blame the ERG nutjobs , you’d have had Brexit by now if it wasn’t for them .
    My son works in network rail , solid labour voters . All the lads there are all saying they will never vote labour again for the way the party has betrayed brexit. I think northern labour MPs are doomed
    Total rubbish. Labour will mop up in the council elections and probably win the North of Tyne city region mayoralty.
    If last year's pattern holds, of the Conservatives doing well in leave areas, and poorly in Remain areas, that will limit Conservative losses, due to the nature of the seats being contested.
    What a shame if Zac Goldsmith were to lose his seat. (Hopefully it could be mirrored by a win for the Blues in Don Valley.)
    I quite like Caroline Flint, though.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    1st law to be passed when this shitshow is sorted - MPs currently serving a sentence should not be able to vote in parliament.

    Someone’s rattled.
    MPs serving a sentence shouldn't be able to vote ? Is that really such a controversial opinion ?
    Do you know what the position is for a normal member of the electorate?

    If someone is serving a sentence on tag would they be allowed to vote in a GE?
  • Options
    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    kjohnw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    The idea is that by doing so, they cause a vacuum of power which results in No Deal by Default.

    The problem with the idea is twomany-fold:

    1. Mrs May is still in a position to request an extension until a new Prime Minister is appointed by the Queen. She would, I'm sure, ask for a 12 or 18 month extension in that circumstance.

    2. There is the very real possibility of a "government of National Unity" coming out of the Commons before a General Election. Such a government would implement a far softer Brexit than Mrs May's deal.

    3. Even if a General Election were to flow from the VoNC, who lead the Conservative Party?

    4. And even assume someone could be put in place who was suitably Brexity, how do you ensure that the Conservative MPs that are returned are in favour of your kind of deal?

    5. And even if you can get that sorted, what happens if the election results in a Hung Parliament?
    Your right we are well and truly screwed . Maybe emigration is the way forwards
    There’s a noble tradition on PB of Hard Leavers opining on the future of this country from their residences several thousands of miles away, so you’d be in good company.
  • Options
    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    So what is this 'decent brexit' and how would it be implemented ?
    One which does not make us a rule taker from Brussels and takes true control of our borders our laws and our money. And restores sovereignty and accountability to those who rule over us.
    What's your plan to take true control of the Irish border?
    We would not put up a hard border only the EU proposes that
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Pulpstar said:

    1st law to be passed when this shitshow is sorted - MPs currently serving a sentence should not be able to vote in parliament.

    Amen
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    Who you backing?
    Anyone but the two clowns running the tories and labour 😁
    Nobody you can name.

    Is it a secret?
    This really is the problem. Everyone knows what they don't want but, whilst knowing what they do, can't find cause with sufficient numbers to get a majority. Any views on how we sort that out - ducks!!!!!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    So what is this 'decent brexit' and how would it be implemented ?
    One which does not make us a rule taker from Brussels and takes true control of our borders our laws and our money. And restores sovereignty and accountability to those who rule over us.
    What's your plan to take true control of the Irish border?
    We would not put up a hard border only the EU proposes that
    Not really 'control', is it?
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,115
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    So what is this 'decent brexit' and how would it be implemented ?
    One which does not make us a rule taker from Brussels and takes true control of our borders our laws and our money. And restores sovereignty and accountability to those who rule over us.
    That's what the WDA give us.

    Now could you explain how you're going to get Parliament to approve it.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,884
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    Who you backing?
    Anyone but the two clowns running the tories and labour 😁
    Nobody you can name.

    Is it a secret?
    If I had to choose then Boris or Leadsom
    I would be happy with the latter.

    Think Boris might do quite well for the Tories so don't really want him.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    GIN1138 said:

    I suppose it just had to be didn't it!

    Still she still protests her innocence.


  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Lp

    kjohnw said:

    nico67 said:

    kjohnw said:

    Foxy said:

    kjohnw said:

    IanB2 said:

    ERG pro-filibuster amendment falls 105 v 509

    Tonight is the night ERG have been reduced to a rump of bitter losers
    No 23/6/17 was the night it happened. When May's incompetence ensured the saboteurs won and the Remainers had a majority in Parliament.

    Don't expect this Parliament to have the last word though.
    The anger in this country is rising , Parliament and MPs are seen as the blockers of brexit and out of touch with ordinary people . They want us to think again because they think we gave the wrong answer last time . They are destroying our democracy
    On the contrary, our politicians are doing a marvelous job at representing the British public in all its contradictory and irreconcilable beliefs. Westminster has taken back control. Isn't that what the people wanted?
    The people voted to leave . Remain lost . They have not enacted the people’s wishes . In a democracy the majority wins . Leave won . To subvert that vote is democratic betrayal . There will be riots on the streets if brexit is betrayed
    Take a chill pill ! I’m a Remainer and just want an orderly exit and a deal . Blame the ERG nutjobs , you’d have had Brexit by now if it wasn’t for them .
    My son works in network rail , solid labour voters . All the lads there are all saying they will never vote labour again for the way the party has betrayed brexit. I think northern labour MPs are doomed
    Total rubbish. Labour will mop up in the council elections and probably win the North of Tyne city region mayoralty.
    If last year's pattern holds, of the Conservatives doing well in leave areas, and poorly in Remain areas, that will limit Conservative losses, due to the nature of the seats being contested.
    What a shame if Zac Goldsmith were to lose his seat. (Hopefully it could be mirrored by a win for the Blues in Don Valley.)
    I quite like Caroline Flint, though.
    Christ - I hope she remembers to lock her door!
  • Options
    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    Who you backing?
    Anyone but the two clowns running the tories and labour 😁
    Nobody you can name.

    Is it a secret?
    If I had to choose then Boris or Leadsom
    God help us.

    I’d rather have the psychotic love child of MayDay and Corbo than either of that odious twosome.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,115
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Lp

    kjohnw said:

    nico67 said:

    kjohnw said:

    Foxy said:

    kjohnw said:

    IanB2 said:

    ERG pro-filibuster amendment falls 105 v 509

    Tonight is the night ERG have been reduced to a rump of bitter losers
    No 23/6/17 was the night it happened. When May's incompetence ensured the saboteurs won and the Remainers had a majority in Parliament.

    Don't expect this Parliament to have the last word though.
    The anger in this country is rising , Parliament and MPs are seen as the blockers of brexit and out of touch with ordinary people . They want us to think again because they think we gave the wrong answer last time . They are destroying our democracy
    On the contrary, our politicians are doing a marvelous job at representing the British public in all its contradictory and irreconcilable beliefs. Westminster has taken back control. Isn't that what the people wanted?
    The people voted to leave . Remain lost . They have not enacted the people’s wishes . In a democracy the majority wins . Leave won . To subvert that vote is democratic betrayal . There will be riots on the streets if brexit is betrayed
    Take a chill pill ! I’m a Remainer and just want an orderly exit and a deal . Blame the ERG nutjobs , you’d have had Brexit by now if it wasn’t for them .
    My son works in network rail , solid labour voters . All the lads there are all saying they will never vote labour again for the way the party has betrayed brexit. I think northern labour MPs are doomed
    Total rubbish. Labour will mop up in the council elections and probably win the North of Tyne city region mayoralty.
    If last year's pattern holds, of the Conservatives doing well in leave areas, and poorly in Remain areas, that will limit Conservative losses, due to the nature of the seats being contested.
    What a shame if Zac Goldsmith were to lose his seat. (Hopefully it could be mirrored by a win for the Blues in Don Valley.)
    I quite like Caroline Flint, though.
    Get the idea that Labour picked the wrong Doncaster MP to be leader ?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,892
    rcs1000 said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    So what is this 'decent brexit' and how would it be implemented ?
    There was nothing particularly wrong with Mrs May's proposal. It would likely have been followed by a close, but sub-EEA, relationship between the UK and the EU.

    Over time, the relationship would have gradually loosened, but the divorce would have been a relatively friendly one.
    It's just a pity that her ability to negotiate a reasonable deal goes hand in hand with non-existent interpersonal skills.

    Re-reading Imperium by Robert Harris, and Tiro makes the point that Cicero's success is based less on his oratory (superb though it is) and more on his his ability to charm and win over people one to one, something May cannot do.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,115
    rcs1000 said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    So what is this 'decent brexit' and how would it be implemented ?
    There was nothing particularly wrong with Mrs May's proposal. It would likely have been followed by a close, but sub-EEA, relationship between the UK and the EU.

    Over time, the relationship would have gradually loosened, but the divorce would have been a relatively friendly one.
    And that's what the ERG death culters couldn't accept.

    If Brexit doesn't lead to chaos its not proper Brexit to them.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    brendan16 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I suppose it just had to be didn't it!

    Still she still protests her innocence.


    Would anyone watch that and think "here is a wronged woman"? I can only think "Liar, GO!" but then I like to think of myself as honest.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,115
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    So what is this 'decent brexit' and how would it be implemented ?
    There was nothing particularly wrong with Mrs May's proposal. It would likely have been followed by a close, but sub-EEA, relationship between the UK and the EU.

    Over time, the relationship would have gradually loosened, but the divorce would have been a relatively friendly one.
    It's just a pity that her ability to negotiate a reasonable deal goes hand in hand with non-existent interpersonal skills.

    Re-reading Imperium by Robert Harris, and Tiro makes the point that Cicero's success is based less on his oratory (superb though it is) and more on his his ability to charm and win over people one to one, something May cannot do.
    Aside from the mystery of how someone with no people skills became a politician that doesn't explain why almost nobody else (Rory Stewart being an minor exception) has made any effort to promote the WDA.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    rcs1000 said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    So what is this 'decent brexit' and how would it be implemented ?
    There was nothing particularly wrong with Mrs May's proposal. It would likely have been followed by a close, but sub-EEA, relationship between the UK and the EU.

    Over time, the relationship would have gradually loosened, but the divorce would have been a relatively friendly one.
    And that's what the ERG death culters couldn't accept.

    If Brexit doesn't lead to chaos its not proper Brexit to them.
    I agree with your drift but cannot support your conclusion that the objective is to cause chaos.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,115

    rcs1000 said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    So what is this 'decent brexit' and how would it be implemented ?
    There was nothing particularly wrong with Mrs May's proposal. It would likely have been followed by a close, but sub-EEA, relationship between the UK and the EU.

    Over time, the relationship would have gradually loosened, but the divorce would have been a relatively friendly one.
    And that's what the ERG death culters couldn't accept.

    If Brexit doesn't lead to chaos its not proper Brexit to them.
    I agree with your drift but cannot support your conclusion that the objective is to cause chaos.
    'If its not hurting its not working' is the mentality.

    ie if there isn't pain then it means too much has been conceded in the negotiation.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019

    rcs1000 said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    So what is this 'decent brexit' and how would it be implemented ?
    There was nothing particularly wrong with Mrs May's proposal. It would likely have been followed by a close, but sub-EEA, relationship between the UK and the EU.

    Over time, the relationship would have gradually loosened, but the divorce would have been a relatively friendly one.
    And that's what the ERG death culters couldn't accept.

    If Brexit doesn't lead to chaos its not proper Brexit to them.
    Now while we can all quibble with the accuracy of polls but the latest you gov does seem to suggest a fair proportion of the public agree with them.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/02/what-do-public-think-might-break-brexit-deadlock

    When asked to choose between No deal and revoking article 50 if the EU were to refuse an extension - no deal wins - marginally - by 44 to 42. And the poll more generally shows a huge divergence between Scotland and London vs the rest of England and Wales.

    In the south (outside London), midlands and Wales no deal wins by 10 per cent plus - but in London revoke wins by 16. And amongst Tory voters its 76 per cent no deal vs 16% revoke.

    I am not sure exactly how you bridge such a huge divide!
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    So what is this 'decent brexit' and how would it be implemented ?
    There was nothing particularly wrong with Mrs May's proposal. It would likely have been followed by a close, but sub-EEA, relationship between the UK and the EU.

    Over time, the relationship would have gradually loosened, but the divorce would have been a relatively friendly one.
    It's just a pity that her ability to negotiate a reasonable deal goes hand in hand with non-existent interpersonal skills.

    Re-reading Imperium by Robert Harris, and Tiro makes the point that Cicero's success is based less on his oratory (superb though it is) and more on his his ability to charm and win over people one to one, something May cannot do.
    There is no denying that May has fucked up big time but Corbyn is in a totally different class of fuckwit. If we had any kind of responsible Labour leadership this would all have been done and dusted long ago in spite of May. This is not an apology for May who fucked up all by herself.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    There is no denying that May has fucked up big time but Corbyn is in a totally different class of fuckwit. If we had any kind of responsible Labour leadership this would all have been done and dusted long ago in spite of May. This is not an apology for May who fucked up all by herself.

    I'm not a fan of Corbyn but I can't think of any opposition leader ever who'd have supported the government when it tried to do an unpopular thing that they weren't consulted on. Maybe they should have, I'm not sure, but what we saw from Corbyn was standard oppositioning.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    rcs1000 said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    U

    I agree with your drift but cannot support your conclusion that the objective is to cause chaos.
    'If its not hurting its not working' is the mentality.

    ie if there isn't pain then it means too much has been conceded in the negotiation.

    rcs1000 said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    So what is this 'decent brexit' and how would it be implemented ?
    There was nothing particularly wrong with Mrs May's proposal. It would likely have been followed by a close, but sub-EEA, relationship between the UK and the EU.

    Over time, the relationship would have gradually loosened, but the divorce would have been a relatively friendly one.
    And that's what the ERG death culters couldn't accept.

    If Brexit doesn't lead to chaos its not proper Brexit to them.
    I agree with your drift but cannot support your conclusion that the objective is to cause chaos.
    'If its not hurting its not working' is the mentality.

    ie if there isn't pain then it means too much has been conceded in the negotiation.
    I can't agree with your interpretation of ERG motivation. I believe most of them are irrationally drive by a hatred of the EU. I myself rationally hate the administrators but would compromise in recognition of the fact that half a cake is better than none, and we can get another go at the other half later
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,115
    brendan16 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    So what is this 'decent brexit' and how would it be implemented ?
    There was nothing particularly wrong with Mrs May's proposal. It would likely have been followed by a close, but sub-EEA, relationship between the UK and the EU.

    Over time, the relationship would have gradually loosened, but the divorce would have been a relatively friendly one.
    And that's what the ERG death culters couldn't accept.

    If Brexit doesn't lead to chaos its not proper Brexit to them.
    Now while we can all quibble with the accuracy of polls but the latest you gov does seem to suggest a fair proportion of the public agree with them.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/02/what-do-public-think-might-break-brexit-deadlock

    When asked to choose between No deal and revoking article 50 if the EU were to refuse an extension - no deal wins - marginally - by 44 to 42. And the poll more generally shows a huge divergence between Scotland and London vs the rest of England and Wales.

    In the south (outside London), midlands and Wales no deal wins by 10 per cent plus - but in London revoke wins by 16. And amongst Tory voters its 76 per cent no deal vs 16% revoke.

    I am not sure exactly how you bridge such a huge divide!
    Ask the No Deal supporters what advantages No Deal has over the WDA and see if any can give an answer.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    brendan16 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    So what is this 'decent brexit' and how would it be implemented ?
    There was nothing particularly wrong with Mrs May's proposal. It would likely have been followed by a close, but sub-EEA, relationship between the UK and the EU.

    Over time, the relationship would have gradually loosened, but the divorce would have been a relatively friendly one.
    And that's what the ERG death culters couldn't accept.

    If Brexit doesn't lead to chaos its not proper Brexit to them.
    Now while we can all quibble with the accuracy of polls but the latest you gov does seem to suggest a fair proportion of the public agree with them.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/02/what-do-public-think-might-break-brexit-deadlock

    When asked to choose between No deal and revoking article 50 if the EU were to refuse an extension - no deal wins - marginally - by 44 to 42. And the poll more generally shows a huge divergence between Scotland and London vs the rest of England and Wales.

    In the south (outside London), midlands and Wales no deal wins by 10 per cent plus - but in London revoke wins by 16. And amongst Tory voters its 76 per cent no deal vs 16% revoke.

    I am not sure exactly how you bridge such a huge divide!
    However the poll also shows the median voter supports neither No Deal nor Revoke but extension as across the UK 40% of voters back No Deal, 36% of voters back Revoke and 11% of voters back extension (most of those I suspect soft Brexiteers) so at the moment May is still bridging the divide

  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    There is no denying that May has fucked up big time but Corbyn is in a totally different class of fuckwit. If we had any kind of responsible Labour leadership this would all have been done and dusted long ago in spite of May. This is not an apology for May who fucked up all by herself.

    I'm not a fan of Corbyn but I can't think of any opposition leader ever who'd have supported the government when it tried to do an unpopular thing that they weren't consulted on. Maybe they should have, I'm not sure, but what we saw from Corbyn was standard oppositioning.
    This argument defends any despot who is seeking power through democratic systems before destroying such systems.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,047
    edited April 2019
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    So what is this 'decent brexit' and how would it be implemented ?
    One which does not make us a rule taker from Brussels and takes true control of our borders our laws and our money. And restores sovereignty and accountability to those who rule over us.
    Go pick up a random piece of consumer electronics. On the back you'll see three logos:

    FCC
    UL
    CE

    The first of these is the US FCC and relates to the electrical interference that it emits. The second is also from the US, and relates to fire. (And in particular, how it won't spontaneously combust, and what can be used to put it out in case it did burn.) The final one, CE, relates to the EU, and means that it will work certain input voltages, the acceptable tolerences for the frequency of the power input etc.

    Inside the EU. Outside the EU with a deal. Outside the EU with no deal. Irrespective, those three bodies set the standards for consumer electronics. We will be de facto rules takers.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    There is no denying that May has fucked up big time but Corbyn is in a totally different class of fuckwit. If we had any kind of responsible Labour leadership this would all have been done and dusted long ago in spite of May. This is not an apology for May who fucked up all by herself.

    I'm not a fan of Corbyn but I can't think of any opposition leader ever who'd have supported the government when it tried to do an unpopular thing that they weren't consulted on. Maybe they should have, I'm not sure, but what we saw from Corbyn was standard oppositioning.
    This argument defends any despot who is seeking power through democratic systems before destroying such systems.
    Sorry, you've lost me.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019

    brendan16 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    So what is this 'decent brexit' and how would it be implemented ?
    There was nothing particularly wrong with Mrs May's proposal. It would likely have been followed by a close, but sub-EEA, relationship between the UK and the EU.

    Over time, the relationship would have gradually loosened, but the divorce would have been a relatively friendly one.
    And that's what the ERG death culters couldn't accept.

    If Brexit doesn't lead to chaos its not proper Brexit to them.
    Now while we can all quibble with the accuracy of polls but the latest you gov does seem to suggest a fair proportion of the public agree with them.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/02/what-do-public-think-might-break-brexit-deadlock

    When asked to choose between No deal and revoking article 50 if the EU were to refuse an extension - no deal wins - marginally - by 44 to 42. And the poll more generally shows a huge divergence between Scotland and London vs the rest of England and Wales.

    In the south (outside London), midlands and Wales no deal wins by 10 per cent plus - but in London revoke wins by 16. And amongst Tory voters its 76 per cent no deal vs 16% revoke.

    I am not sure exactly how you bridge such a huge divide!
    Ask the No Deal supporters what advantages No Deal has over the WDA and see if any can give an answer.
    Who can say - but to suggest the ERG position has no support out in the country is not at least on this poll an accurate representation of opinon.

    Of course ask a fair few MPs if they fully understood what they were voting for tonight and its potential unintended consequences - and you might perhaps get one or two blank looks too?

    I do hope the Lords at least give the bill a thorough going over tomorrow and some proper scrutiny (before obviously voting for it as they will) - as passing rushed legislation in an evening which would normally take weeks or even months to pass from first to third reading isn't exactly ideal. Its no way to make laws.

    Does make you wonder if we couldn't have a part time parliament if they can pass legislation so quickly - and send them home for most of the year on reduced pay.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,920
    So are we no-dealing next week or not?
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    viewcode said:

    So are we no-dealing next week or not?

    Probably not - but I suppose we have to wait formally for the EU Council of Ministers to advise us of their terms for extension in 7 days time. Hopefully they will at least invite Mrs May for starters next Wednesday before they have her for dessert!
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,920
    brendan16 said:

    viewcode said:

    So are we no-dealing next week or not?

    Probably not - but I suppose we have to wait formally for the EU Council of Ministers to advise us of their terms for extension in 7 days time. Hopefully they will at least invite Mrs May for starters next Wednesday before they have her for dessert!
    Thank you
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    A very interesting amendment that went through tonight was the Commons accepting the negative procedure for the SI approving any extension compared to the last extension which needed the affirmative procedure .

    This means there won’t need to be votes in both houses . This was important because of the tight timeline .
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019
    nico67 said:

    A very interesting amendment that went through tonight was the Commons accepting the negative procedure for the SI approving any extension compared to the last extension which needed the affirmative procedure .

    This means there won’t need to be votes in both houses . This was important because of the tight timeline .

    Not of course that the Lords would object anyway - so in one sense its slightly academic.

    Does a Minister have to lay the SI - as is usual under the negative procedure and it automatically becomes law unless Parliament reverses it within 40 sitting days - or has Yvette Cooper now been given that power to make the law personally? Its quite unusual to use the negative procedure for important matters.

    For example the Government laid statutory instruments yesterday to allow the Mayor of London to use the developer contributions he has collected in the capital to repay the debt he has taken out to pay for Crossrail and to create a unitary council for Buckinghamshire - those will require an affirmative resolution of both Houses (with votes) but extending our exit date from the EU will as you say not? Bizarre!
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    brendan16 said:

    nico67 said:

    A very interesting amendment that went through tonight was the Commons accepting the negative procedure for the SI approving any extension compared to the last extension which needed the affirmative procedure .

    This means there won’t need to be votes in both houses . This was important because of the tight timeline .

    Not of course that the Lords would object anyway - so in one sense its slightly academic.

    Does a Minister have to lay the SI - as is usual under the negative procedure and it automatically becomes law unless Parliament reverses it within 40 sitting days - or has Yvette Cooper now been given that power to make the law personally? Its quite unusual to use the negative procedure for important matters.

    For example the Government laid statutory instruments yesterday to allow the Mayor of London to use the developer contributions he has collected in the capital to repay the debt he has taken out to pay for Crossrail and to create a unitary council for Buckinghamshire - those will require an affirmative resolution of both Houses (with votes) but extending our exit date from the EU will as you say not? Bizarre!
    In this case the yings and yangs are all reversed because there's something that happens automatically if the government doesn't move by date x. Normally if the government doesn't move, nothing happens. In this case, to make nothing happen, the government has to move.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    OT Mueller team finally leaking:
    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1113587484204699648

    Hopefully they'll be gently explaining to the New York Times that the word "gullible" hasn't really been taken out of the English dictionary.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    brendan16 said:

    nico67 said:

    A very interesting amendment that went through tonight was the Commons accepting the negative procedure for the SI approving any extension compared to the last extension which needed the affirmative procedure .

    This means there won’t need to be votes in both houses . This was important because of the tight timeline .

    Not of course that the Lords would object anyway - so in one sense its slightly academic.

    Does a Minister have to lay the SI - as is usual under the negative procedure and it automatically becomes law unless Parliament reverses it within 40 sitting days - or has Yvette Cooper now been given that power to make the law personally? Its quite unusual to use the negative procedure for important matters.

    For example the Government laid statutory instruments yesterday to allow the Mayor of London to use the developer contributions he has collected in the capital to repay the debt he has taken out to pay for Crossrail and to create a unitary council for Buckinghamshire - those will require an affirmative resolution of both Houses (with votes) but extending our exit date from the EU will as you say not? Bizarre!
    Not bizarre at all, the EU exit date is a matter of international law not an issue for Parliament to decide. The SI just updates our law on what international law is.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,057
    rcs1000 said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    The best option now is for the tories to vonc TM either through rule change in the 22 or failing that collapse the government

    And what does that do to help ?
    Ushers in a better leader who will implement a decent brexit
    So what is this 'decent brexit' and how would it be implemented ?
    One which does not make us a rule taker from Brussels and takes true control of our borders our laws and our money. And restores sovereignty and accountability to those who rule over us.
    Go pick up a random piece of consumer electronics. On the back you'll see three logos:

    FCC
    UL
    CE

    The first of these is the US FCC and relates to the electrical interference that it emits. The second is also from the US, and relates to fire. (And in particular, how it won't spontaneously combust, and what can be used to put it out in case it did burn.) The final one, CE, relates to the EU, and means that it will work certain input voltages, the acceptable tolerences for the frequency of the power input etc.

    Inside the EU. Outside the EU with a deal. Outside the EU with no deal. Irrespective, those three bodies set the standards for consumer electronics. We will be de facto rules takers.
    One thing to note (irrelevant to your point, but worth knowing): you can also see a 'C E', with a gap between the C and the E. That does not mean that it is EU certified, but that it's made in China ('China Export').
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