1) why doesn’t today’s votes embolden ERG to double down on No deal (“the default”) 2). How ridiculous is Labour voting against the EEA option because it requires voting for May’s deal? If they support EEA end position, what is their actual objection to the WA? Other than it’s”May’s”
Ah that would be Heidi “I was a Remainer, but the EU ref result is final and cannot be rerun.” Allen.
What would she do if the public voted the wrong way second time around?
To be fair, if it was the (original) Kyle/Wilson referendum plan, she wouldn't get a say in the matter, or any chance to stop it - the Withdrawal Agreement would automatically get ratified if a Leave vote was returned in a referendum.
In any case, if there was a second Leave vote, everyone except the most extreme of Remainers would throw in the towel (certainly Labour would stop giving the idea of reversing Brexit any time at all in that scenario).
No, contest the European elections and renegotiate based on May's Deal plus Customs Union is what it will be. No Deal was resoundingly voted down by MPs tonight and May has made clear she will not implement No Deal unless MPs vote for it and will keep asking the EU for an extension instead until the Commons votes for a Deal
You are 100% sure the EU will always give it? You cannot be sure May will always be there to beg for it.
Let's just declare that we have left this Friday on time. Here you go Brexiteers, we have left the European Union. What's that, why are we holding European Parliamentary elections if we haven't left? It's so you can chose people to go sit in Strasbourg and Brussels and insult foreign types.
Just like so many people cover over a performance gap by lying - I AM on a diet, I am going to the gym, I did remember to do that before you reminded me etc etc - we just lie, say we've left and move on.
Indeed, and have a “what colour would you like?” question on the passport form. People who tick “patriotic dark blue of course!” option get a non-EU passport and will have to apply for an eVisa to visit Schengen in a few years, whereas those of us that tick the “maroon because I’m a snowflake Remoaner” get the real McCoy.
They have intregrity, frustrating as it is, but he does not, given he is clearly willing to accept the WA but lacks the guts to do so without them. But he and others have been clear they have delegated their votes to the DUP before.
If he wants to take the DUP whip then he should do so and be done with it.
No, contest the European elections and renegotiate based on May's Deal plus Customs Union is what it will be. No Deal was resoundingly voted down by MPs tonight and May has made clear she will not implement No Deal unless MPs vote for it and will keep asking the EU for an extension instead until the Commons votes for a Deal
You are 100% sure the EU will always give it? You cannot be sure May will always be there to beg for it.
You cannot be sure no deal isn’t going to happen.
I can as No Deal needs commitment from the UK Parliament and well over 50% of voters to be delivered, it has neither, so BINO or EUref2 is the inevitable ultimate outcome unless the Deal is agreed.
The EU made clear last week for lengthy extension they simply require Commons indicative votes, tick, showing what is close to what they want, permanent Customs Union, tick and they can then renegotiate on that if the UK contests the EU Parliament elections, final tick as May has said she will not allow No Deal unless Parliament votes for it and the only alternative until her Deal is passed is further extension and the UK contests the European Parliament elections which now looks increasingly inevitable
Evening all. I've been listening to Handel, so I haven't been following things this evening. Is this Brexit malarkey sorted now that parliament has Taken Control?
In any case, if there was a second Leave vote, everyone except the most extreme of Remainers would throw in the towel (certainly Labour would stop giving the idea of reversing Brexit any time at all in that scenario).
That would depend how it went. If Brexit was unpopular, which it probably would be, I'm sure there would be a significant campaign to rejoin. But the plausible schedule for that is after the next GE at the earliest, more likely the next-but-one.
Let's just declare that we have left this Friday on time. Here you go Brexiteers, we have left the European Union. What's that, why are we holding European Parliamentary elections if we haven't left? It's so you can chose people to go sit in Strasbourg and Brussels and insult foreign types.
Just like so many people cover over a performance gap by lying - I AM on a diet, I am going to the gym, I did remember to do that before you reminded me etc etc - we just lie, say we've left and move on.
I daresay part of the Leave vote was about having seen through that sort of "it's just a trading bloc / it's not an EU constitution / it doesn't really have any effect / of course you get a social chapter opt out" deception
No, contest the European elections and renegotiate based on May's Deal plus Customs Union is what it will be. No Deal was resoundingly voted down by MPs tonight and May has made clear she will not implement No Deal unless MPs vote for it and will keep asking the EU for an extension instead until the Commons votes for a Deal
You are 100% sure the EU will always give it? You cannot be sure May will always be there to beg for it.
You cannot be sure no deal isn’t going to happen.
I can as No Deal needs commitment from the UK Parliament and well over 50% of voters to be delivered, it has neither, so BINO or EUref2 is the inevitable ultimate outcome unless the Deal is agreed.
The EU made clear last week for lengthy extension they simply require Commons indicative votes, tick, showing what is close to what they want, permanent Customs Union, tick and they can then renegotiate on that if the UK contests the EU Parliament elections, final tick as May has said she will not allow No Deal unless Parliament votes for it and the only alternative until her Deal is passed is further extension and the UK contests the European Parliament elections which now looks increasingly inevitable
No Deal does not need commitment either from Parliament or the public. It is still, even now, the default setting once we run out of extensions unless someone does something else.
If no one does another single thing then we will Leave with No Deal.
No, contest the European elections and renegotiate based on May's Deal plus Customs Union is what it will be. No Deal was resoundingly voted down by MPs tonight and May has made clear she will not implement No Deal unless MPs vote for it and will keep asking the EU for an extension instead until the Commons votes for a Deal
You are 100% sure the EU will always give it? You cannot be sure May will always be there to beg for it.
You cannot be sure no deal isn’t going to happen.
I can as No Deal needs commitment from the UK Parliament and well over 50% of voters to be delivered, it has neither, so BINO or EUref2 is the inevitable ultimate outcome unless the Deal is agreed.
The EU made clear last week for lengthy extension they simply require Commons indicative votes, tick, showing what is close to what they want, permanent Customs Union, tick and they can then renegotiate on that if the UK contests the EU Parliament elections, final tick as May has said she will not allow No Deal unless Parliament votes for it and the only alternative until her Deal is passed is further extension and the UK contests the European Parliament elections which now looks increasingly inevitable
I’m not buying it from you HY.
I sense the EU commission tusk in particular stroppy at council open to no deal, with EU parliament divided on wanting us to take part in EU elections.
I sense with trexit momentum May siding with majority in cabinet and party to allow clean brexit.
And where are you getting UK parliament and voters have to engineer no deal? They already have. It’s law and unless stopped happens
Evening all. I've been listening to Handel, so I haven't been following things this evening. Is this Brexit malarkey sorted now that parliament has Taken Control?
All the options were defeated, Ken Clarke's by just 8 votes.
Given how confused even us wonks can get about what is the customs union or a customs union and what the single market is or Norway+ and Malthouse and Chequers and this and that, I don't think there would be as much difficulty in trying to sell customs union Brexit as Brexit enough for most people.
If May had said that we need a permanent customs union at the outset to resolve the Irish issue...it would be done and dusted.... She should have put her red line at the single market...
Seriously, who gives a fuck about doing trade deals with fuck knows where...for fuck knows what.... when we do all our trade in the EU?
A lot of the 'libertarian pirate island' Conservatives do obsess about trade deals - or at least did, seeing Liam Fox in action has perhaps been a bit of a downer for them.
It would also be anathema to the ERG death culters.
Keeping EU customs and agriculture solves the Irish border, and most of the other Channel isdues and keeps out chlorinated chicken. Clearly these are all good.
Am I right that 3rd party EU trade deals, such as South Korea, don't automatically carry over to UK?
It depends.
If we are in 'The' Customs Union then they do roll over.
If we are in 'A' Customs Union then they do not roll over for us having tariff free access to the third party but they do roll over for the third party having tariff free access to our market.
The Clarke motion was for The (definitive article) Customs Union I believe Richard.
(P.S. it is testament to how Kafkaesque Brexit has become that we are now debating the definity of the article in Customs Union)
Oh I agree. But if that is what Clarke was proposing then it seems he is trying to catch his own Unicorns. Mind you I am not entirely surprised given this was then man who proudly announced he had not read the Lisbon Treaty even though he was one of its strongest advocates.
I thought it was the Maastricht Treaty that Ken Clarke boasted about not having read ?
I dare say he's not read any of them as well as you have.
For my sins that is true. And annotated and cross referenced them as well. To be fair you have to do that bit because the Lisbon Treaty cannot be read without reference to the earlier treaties.
No, contest the European elections and renegotiate based on May's Deal plus Customs Union is what it will be. No Deal was resoundingly voted down by MPs tonight and May has made clear she will not implement No Deal unless MPs vote for it and will keep asking the EU for an extension instead until the Commons votes for a Deal
You are 100% sure the EU will always give it? You cannot be sure May will always be there to beg for it.
You cannot be sure no deal isn’t going to happen.
I can as No Deal needs commitment from the UK Parliament and well over 50% of voters to be delivered, it has neither, so BINO or EUref2 is the inevitable ultimate outcome unless the Deal is agreed.
The EU made clear last week for lengthy extension they simply require Commons indicative votes, tick, showing what is close to what they want, permanent Customs Union, tick and they can then renegotiate on that if the UK contests the EU Parliament elections, final tick as May has said she will not allow No Deal unless Parliament votes for it and the only alternative until her Deal is passed is further extension and the UK contests the European Parliament elections which now looks increasingly inevitable
No Deal does not need commitment either from Parliament or the public. It is still, even now, the default setting once we run out of extensions unless someone does something else.
If no one does another single thing then we will Leave with No Deal.
No as more likely we never run out of extensions and stay in the EU indefinitely now March 29th has been removed as the Brexit date by SI today and most likely we now contest the EU elections too which was the EU price for lengthy extension.
The big news is a second referendum getting as many as 268 votes, a lot more than expected by most people. The petition and march may have had something to do with that.
Nice to see the Dishonourable Member for Peterborough letting her inner bigot shine through... (the same label also applies to the others who voted against this motion)
But Beckett's amendment wasn't for a "People's Vote" - it was for a "Confirmatory Vote" (alternative to deal unspecified, because as soon as you say "Remain" support drops) and only for this Parliament - so a Labour government would not be bound by it.
No, contest the European elections and renegotiate based on May's Deal plus Customs Union is what it will be. No Deal was resoundingly voted down by MPs tonight and May has made clear she will not implement No Deal unless MPs vote for it and will keep asking the EU for an extension instead until the Commons votes for a Deal
You are 100% sure the EU will always give it? You cannot be sure May will always be there to beg for it.
You cannot be sure no deal isn’t going to happen.
I can as No Deal needs commitment from the UK Parliament and well over 50% of voters to be delivered, it has neither, so BINO or EUref2 is the inevitable ultimate outcome unless the Deal is agreed.
The EU made clear last week for lengthy extension they simply require Commons indicative votes, tick, showing what is close to what they want, permanent Customs Union, tick and they can then renegotiate on that if the UK contests the EU Parliament elections, final tick as May has said she will not allow No Deal unless Parliament votes for it and the only alternative until her Deal is passed is further extension and the UK contests the European Parliament elections which now looks increasingly inevitable
I’m not buying it from you HY.
I sense the EU commission tusk in particular stroppy at council open to no deal, with EU parliament divided on wanting us to take part in EU elections.
I sense with trexit momentum May siding with majority in cabinet and party to allow clean brexit.
And where are you getting UK parliament and voters have to engineer no deal? They already have. It’s law and unless stopped happens
Nope, wrong.
See Tusk tweet for long extension below and Verhofstadt tweets below, they sense Parliament moving towards EUref2 and revoke or BINO and tonight's votes in the Commons prove that as they were the 2 highest options. https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1110838269040824320?s=20
May has refused to allow No Deal unless the Commons votes for it, otherwise we contest the EU Parliament elections.
It is also no longer UK law we leave the EU, the date of Brexit was officially removed tonight, just replaced by the date we next request extension, not the date of a new Brexit
This is not impossible by any means. Gets us past the first hurdle and fulfils the mandate of the first referendum and then puts the question of how we progress the second stage back to the people.
With the Lib Dems and SNP abstaining on the Customs Union vote and TIG voting against, you'd imagine it'll easily come out on top on Monday. The second referendum doesn't have the possibility of many extra votes in it from anywhere, unless Tory MPs see it as a legitimate way to get May's deal through eventually.
This is not impossible by any means. Gets us past the first hurdle and fulfils the mandate of the first referendum and then puts the question of how we progress the second stage back to the people.
The big news is a second referendum getting as many as 268 votes, a lot more than expected by most people. The petition and march may have had something to do with that.
The big news is a second referendum getting as many as 268 votes, a lot more than expected by most people. The petition and march may have had something to do with that.
That said, 31 Labour and ex-Labour voted against, implying about 345 votes against in a normal vote.
With the Lib Dems and SNP abstaining on the Customs Union vote and TIG voting against, you'd imagine it'll easily come out on top on Monday. The second referendum doesn't have the possibility of many extra votes in it from anywhere, unless Tory MPs see it as a legitimate way to get May's deal through eventually.
With the Lib Dems and SNP abstaining on the Customs Union vote and TIG voting against, you'd imagine it'll easily come out on top on Monday. The second referendum doesn't have the possibility of many extra votes in it from anywhere, unless Tory MPs see it as a legitimate way to get May's deal through eventually.
This is not impossible by any means. Gets us past the first hurdle and fulfils the mandate of the first referendum and then puts the question of how we progress the second stage back to the people.
This is not impossible by any means. Gets us past the first hurdle and fulfils the mandate of the first referendum and then puts the question of how we progress the second stage back to the people.
With the Lib Dems and SNP abstaining on the Customs Union vote and TIG voting against, you'd imagine it'll easily come out on top on Monday. The second referendum doesn't have the possibility of many extra votes in it from anywhere, unless Tory MPs see it as a legitimate way to get May's deal through eventually.
With the Lib Dems and SNP abstaining on the Customs Union vote and TIG voting against, you'd imagine it'll easily come out on top on Monday. The second referendum doesn't have the possibility of many extra votes in it from anywhere, unless Tory MPs see it as a legitimate way to get May's deal through eventually.
If I were PM, I'd take WA + CU.
Yup, it's pretty much where the backstop would leave her anyway after the EU considers and rejects the various NI blockchain solutions or whatever.
I wonder if the Labour MPs currently supporting this would really vote it through if TMay proposed it.
This is not impossible by any means. Gets us past the first hurdle and fulfils the mandate of the first referendum and then puts the question of how we progress the second stage back to the people.
Well Labour have been calling for an election forever now so they can't object. The TIGs and DUP won't want an election but I'm not sure the Government owes either of them any favours. It solves the problem of a lack of mandate for any new Tory leader.
This is not impossible by any means. Gets us past the first hurdle and fulfils the mandate of the first referendum and then puts the question of how we progress the second stage back to the people.
Well Labour have been calling for an election forever now so they can't object. The TIGs and DUP won't want an election but I'm not sure the Government owes either of them any favours. It solves the problem of a lack of mandate for any new Tory leader.
Sure they can object. They'd say stfu and call the election, the EU will give us an extension while we do it, and after we win we'll go back and negotiate a less shitty WA. Aside from whether you think they'd in fact end up with the exact same WA, that's clearly a coherent line.
I don't think they really want to be in a position of giving TMay her deal, then fighting an election where their remainiac ex-supporters get to weigh in on whether they think that was a good idea.
With the Lib Dems and SNP abstaining on the Customs Union vote and TIG voting against, you'd imagine it'll easily come out on top on Monday. The second referendum doesn't have the possibility of many extra votes in it from anywhere, unless Tory MPs see it as a legitimate way to get May's deal through eventually.
With the Lib Dems and SNP abstaining on the Customs Union vote and TIG voting against, you'd imagine it'll easily come out on top on Monday. The second referendum doesn't have the possibility of many extra votes in it from anywhere, unless Tory MPs see it as a legitimate way to get May's deal through eventually.
If I were PM, I'd take WA + CU.
Yup, it's pretty much where the backstop would leave her anyway after the EU considers and rejects the various NI blockchain solutions or whatever.
I wonder if the Labour MPs currently supporting this would really vote it through if TMay proposed it.
I feel like it would still need a long Article 50 extension, and a binding agreement with the EU on Customs Union membership (I know all that guff about how "the EU won't negotiate on the future relationship until we're out of the EU", but I highly doubt that would hold if it was on a proposal that the EU liked), before enough Labour MPs got on board. There's no reason for them to trust the Tories to stick to a commitment to a customs union until they've got it written in blood.
With the Lib Dems and SNP abstaining on the Customs Union vote and TIG voting against, you'd imagine it'll easily come out on top on Monday. The second referendum doesn't have the possibility of many extra votes in it from anywhere, unless Tory MPs see it as a legitimate way to get May's deal through eventually.
With the Lib Dems and SNP abstaining on the Customs Union vote and TIG voting against, you'd imagine it'll easily come out on top on Monday. The second referendum doesn't have the possibility of many extra votes in it from anywhere, unless Tory MPs see it as a legitimate way to get May's deal through eventually.
If I were PM, I'd take WA + CU.
Yup, it's pretty much where the backstop would leave her anyway after the EU considers and rejects the various NI blockchain solutions or whatever.
I wonder if the Labour MPs currently supporting this would really vote it through if TMay proposed it.
I feel like it would still need a long Article 50 extension, and a binding agreement with the EU on Customs Union membership (I know all that guff about how "the EU won't negotiate on the future relationship until we're out of the EU", but I highly doubt that would hold if it was on a proposal that the EU liked), before enough Labour MPs got on board. There's no reason for them to trust the Tories to stick to a commitment to a customs union until they've got it written in blood.
That seems like the script for the next stage of the paralysis doesn't it? Everyone agrees on what to do, but nobody can unlock the move to the next stage in case one of the other parties fails to do it. You could string that out for at least 18 months.
This is not impossible by any means. Gets us past the first hurdle and fulfils the mandate of the first referendum and then puts the question of how we progress the second stage back to the people.
Well Labour have been calling for an election forever now so they can't object. The TIGs and DUP won't want an election but I'm not sure the Government owes either of them any favours. It solves the problem of a lack of mandate for any new Tory leader.
Sure they can object. They'd say stfu and call the election, the EU will give us an extension while we do it, and after we win we'll go back and negotiate a less shitty WA. Aside from whether you think they'd in fact end up with the exact same WA, that's clearly a coherent line.
I don't think they really want to be in a position of giving TMay her deal, then fighting an election where their remainiac ex-supporters get to weigh in on whether they think that was a good idea.
Of course they can object but an early election might be Corbyn's best chance of taking top prize too. And having passed the WA Labour leavers can support their party in good heart. A few leaver returnees from other parties might even compensate for a few lost Remainiacs.
This is not impossible by any means. Gets us past the first hurdle and fulfils the mandate of the first referendum and then puts the question of how we progress the second stage back to the people.
Well Labour have been calling for an election forever now so they can't object. The TIGs and DUP won't want an election but I'm not sure the Government owes either of them any favours. It solves the problem of a lack of mandate for any new Tory leader.
Sure they can object. They'd say stfu and call the election, the EU will give us an extension while we do it, and after we win we'll go back and negotiate a less shitty WA. Aside from whether you think they'd in fact end up with the exact same WA, that's clearly a coherent line.
I don't think they really want to be in a position of giving TMay her deal, then fighting an election where their remainiac ex-supporters get to weigh in on whether they think that was a good idea.
Of course they can object but an early election might be Corbyn's best chance of taking top prize too. And having passed the WA Labour leavers can support their party in good heart. A few leaver returnees from other parties might even compensate for a few lost Remainiacs.
Leavers hate the WA too, there are pretty much zero votes in passing it.
Evening all. I've been listening to Handel, so I haven't been following things this evening. Is this Brexit malarkey sorted now that parliament has Taken Control?
Evening all. I've been listening to Handel, so I haven't been following things this evening. Is this Brexit malarkey sorted now that parliament has Taken Control?
If you plumb the vote internals, CU looks closest
Yup, apparently all TMay has to do is bolt a CU onto the PA, whip a vote for it and she's good, and she'll be exactly where she would have been if she'd managed to pass the MV for her original version then spent the transition fruitlessly trying to find a solution for NI that wasn't a CU.
There are very few tariffs on service exports. What exists are barriers to foreign firms competing in domestic services markets through non-tariff barriers.
So, for example, there are often media or airline ownership rules. And to provide legal or medical services you typically have to be licensed by local bodies. Banking and securities often combine these two forms of barriers: firms have to be majority local owned, and people need to have appropriate local licenses.
Where am I going with this?
Getting countries to lower these kind of barriers is incredibly hard.
Is not one of the many criticisms of the May deal that it safeguards the movement of goods, where we have a deficit with the EU, over services where we run a huge surplus?
"Tonight the PM's deal emerged as pretty much the most popular option, after the so-called indicative votes"
...because everyone knows that the backstop stuff is all bollocks to avoid upsetting people with fancy plans about trade deals and she's going to end up signing up to a Customs Union???
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
It has identified a potential way forward that is likely to command a majority, if you combine a Ken Clarke Brexit with the opportunity to have a confirmatory referendum. If Parliament can identify a process allowing MPs to coalesce around that as an option on Monday then we break the impasse.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
The plan was to indicate what the House can support. Now they can use AV to rank proposals and end up with something that gets a majority. Looks like soft Brexit will win the day.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
It's identified two things that are only a little bit short with the entire Conservative Party on a free vote, TMay can decide which one of the two she prefers and whip for that and she's done.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
It has identified a potential way forward that is likely to command a majority, if you combine a Ken Clarke Brexit with the opportunity to have a confirmatory referendum. If Parliament can identify a process allowing MPs to coalesce around that as an option on Monday then we break the impasse.
If...if...if...iffy.
Alternatively, there's a plan the Executive have already negotiated, ready to be signed to deliver Brexit tomorrow. Question is, how much longer do the Legislature want to dick around as pompous asses before they acknowledge they aren't good at playing at Executive.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
It has identified a potential way forward that is likely to command a majority, if you combine a Ken Clarke Brexit with the opportunity to have a confirmatory referendum. If Parliament can identify a process allowing MPs to coalesce around that as an option on Monday then we break the impasse.
I’m still not sure that most of those in favour of a customs union understand what it means in practice. It’s the worst of all worlds, handing our incoming trade policy to the organisation we just left, while having to negotiate our outgoing trade policy with each third country individually with no scope to adjust our own tarrifs.
Wait for the EU trade deal with India, for example, that cuts duties on whisky imported from India to the EU (and the U.K.) to zero, while leaving export duties on U.K. whisky to India intact and for the U.K. to negotiate on their own.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
It has identified a potential way forward that is likely to command a majority, if you combine a Ken Clarke Brexit with the opportunity to have a confirmatory referendum. If Parliament can identify a process allowing MPs to coalesce around that as an option on Monday then we break the impasse.
If...if...if...iffy.
Alternatively, there's a plan the Executive have already negotiated, ready to be signed to deliver Brexit tomorrow. Question is, how much longer do the Legislature want to dick around as pompous asses before they acknowledge they aren't good at playing at Executive.
I think we can guess....
The Executive isn't very good at playing the Executive, which is why we are here.
They also had the chance to put May's deal forward yesterday, but ducked it. The only way I can see it coming back now is if they can get it to the vote and come within at least a handful of carrying, as Ken Clarke's option did yesterday. I am not seeing the numbers for that right now.
If Monday can identify a consensus option, they will actually have done a pretty good job, in less than 1% of the time it took May to produce a deal that nobody seems to want.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
The plan was to indicate what the House can support. Now they can use AV to rank proposals and end up with something that gets a majority. Looks like soft Brexit will win the day.
People on PB were saying that soft Brexit is the answer two years ago. It was just our PM that couldn't see it.
The question for Monday will be with or without another referendum. Decision time for the people's vote.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
It has identified a potential way forward that is likely to command a majority, if you combine a Ken Clarke Brexit with the opportunity to have a confirmatory referendum. If Parliament can identify a process allowing MPs to coalesce around that as an option on Monday then we break the impasse.
I’m still not sure that most of those in favour of a customs union understand what it means in practice. It’s the worst of all worlds, handing our incoming trade policy to the organisation we just left, while having to negotiate our outgoing trade policy with each third country individually with no scope to adjust our own tarrifs.
Wait for the EU trade deal with India, for example, that cuts duties on whisky imported from India to the EU (and the U.K.) to zero, while leaving export duties on U.K. whisky to India intact and for the U.K. to negotiate on their own.
I don't think anyone's denying it's shit. But all the options are shit except for cancelling brexit, and that's considered unacceptable for procedural reasons.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
It has identified a potential way forward that is likely to command a majority, if you combine a Ken Clarke Brexit with the opportunity to have a confirmatory referendum. If Parliament can identify a process allowing MPs to coalesce around that as an option on Monday then we break the impasse.
I’m still not sure that most of those in favour of a customs union understand what it means in practice. It’s the worst of all worlds, handing our incoming trade policy to the organisation we just left, while having to negotiate our outgoing trade policy with each third country individually with no scope to adjust our own tarrifs.
Wait for the EU trade deal with India, for example, that cuts duties on whisky imported from India to the EU (and the U.K.) to zero, while leaving export duties on U.K. whisky to India intact and for the U.K. to negotiate on their own.
Which is a good argument for putting it back to the people, so they can decide whether it is worth doing or not,
I'm really not sure of the legitimacy of railroading something through that only got 260 odd votes in its first go, despite MPs getting multiple picks. The Customs Union option was way off a majority, didn't command cross party support, got next to no governing party support and didn't even get the most votes out of the all the options. Is Letwin really going to claim on Monday that the mish mash of Labour MPs, a tiny Tory pro remain section and SNP/LD/Tig third choice votes is the valid desired wish of the House that must be acted upon?
Yet the Tories are a two-nation party now. One part, the larger, is completely absorbed in itself, and in winning an internal party battle to capture the leadership and the next phase of Brexit. The other part – historically the more influential but now in relative eclipse, even after this week – is struggling with other parties to shape the country’s future by the tenuous cross-party consensus that began to emerge today.
Today’s events illuminated the immense dangers facing the Tories more than any opportunities. But May’s party is not alone in facing dangers. The country is as divided as deeply as ever by Brexit and all that it represents. We are all, not just the Tory party, drifting into a slow kind of civil war. If we are wise and fortunate – as began to happen this week – it will be resolved in parliament. If we are unwise and unfortunate – as may happen under a new Tory leader – the conflict may become much harder to reconcile.
Brexit was, is and always will be undeliverable because the Brexit people were promised was never remotely possible. Brexit involves profoundly difficult, deeply unpopular choices. We are where we are because fools and liars denied this.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
It has identified a potential way forward that is likely to command a majority, if you combine a Ken Clarke Brexit with the opportunity to have a confirmatory referendum. If Parliament can identify a process allowing MPs to coalesce around that as an option on Monday then we break the impasse.
If...if...if...iffy.
Alternatively, there's a plan the Executive have already negotiated, ready to be signed to deliver Brexit tomorrow. Question is, how much longer do the Legislature want to dick around as pompous asses before they acknowledge they aren't good at playing at Executive.
I think we can guess....
As I predicted, Theresa May's speech last week to the nation criticising MPs in Parliament not being able to agree on a Brexit deal would prove to be prescient by the end of this week. It was also not a good look for Boris to switch to backing May's withdrawal agreement the minute there was a whiff of a Leadership contest on the back of her setting out a timetable for her departure. Still perplexed as to why either Boris Johnson or Dominic Raab would be seen as viable Leadership candidates when both have proved to be utterly lacklustre when it comes to being team players in Government as well as displaying no sign of being able to bring the Parliamentary party together again?
Alternatively, there's a plan the Executive have already negotiated, ready to be signed to deliver Brexit tomorrow. Question is, how much longer do the Legislature want to dick around as pompous asses before they acknowledge they aren't good at playing at Executive.
May agreed that deal in bad faith knowing that she'd either have to get the EU to blink on the backstop (she couldn't) or she'd have to find a way to fuck over the DUP (she couldn't).
Her major problem in dealing with the drumbashers is that they say what they mean and do what they say. May has spent her entire adult life only having contact with other tories so she has never met anyone like that before and doesn't know how to deal with them.
I'm really not sure of the legitimacy of railroading something through that only got 260 odd votes in its first go, despite MPs getting multiple picks. The Customs Union option was way off a majority, didn't command cross party support, got next to no governing party support and didn't even get the most votes out of the all the options. Is Letwin really going to claim on Monday that the mish mash of Labour MPs, a tiny Tory pro remain section and SNP/LD/Tig third choice votes is the valid desired wish of the House that must be acted upon?
The votes were structured as individual yes/no propositions, so the multiple pick point isn't really relevant.
The government's own deal got 202 votes at first attempt and 242 at the second. To get up to 264 in support of something is significant progress, particularly with a smaller electorate as the Cabinet all stayed away. The CU proposal was moved by the most senior and respected Conservative in the House.
Letwin doesn't have to claim anything - he simply needs to offer a decision process that takes MPs toward a consensus.
To get a broader cross-party consensus you'd need to tack on a confirmatory referendum. Whether or not to do so is the main decision to be taken Monday.
I'm really not sure of the legitimacy of railroading something through that only got 260 odd votes in its first go, despite MPs getting multiple picks. The Customs Union option was way off a majority, didn't command cross party support, got next to no governing party support and didn't even get the most votes out of the all the options. Is Letwin really going to claim on Monday that the mish mash of Labour MPs, a tiny Tory pro remain section and SNP/LD/Tig third choice votes is the valid desired wish of the House that must be acted upon?
The Customs Union went down 264 vs 272, that's definitely not "way off a majority".
As for the next step I don't think he's going to say, "OK, we're done, CU got the most votes so that's the answer". I think now that he's shown up which options are DOA and which ones might be viable, he's going to try a different kind of vote and try to work out if there's anything that parliament can get behind.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
It has identified a potential way forward that is likely to command a majority, if you combine a Ken Clarke Brexit with the opportunity to have a confirmatory referendum. If Parliament can identify a process allowing MPs to coalesce around that as an option on Monday then we break the impasse.
If...if...if...iffy.
Alternatively, there's a plan the Executive have already negotiated, ready to be signed to deliver Brexit tomorrow. Question is, how much longer do the Legislature want to dick around as pompous asses before they acknowledge they aren't good at playing at Executive.
I think we can guess....
As I predicted, Theresa May's speech last week to the nation criticising MPs in Parliament not being able to agree on a Brexit deal would prove to be prescient by the end of this week. It was also not a good look for Boris to switch to backing May's withdrawal agreement the minute there was a whiff of a Leadership contest on the back of her setting out a timetable for her departure. Still perplexed as to why either Boris Johnson or Dominic Raab would be seen as viable Leadership candidates when both have proved to be utterly lacklustre when it comes to being team players in Government as well as displaying no sign of being able to bring the Parliamentary party together again?
Tory MPs are well aware of this, but not Tory members.
Choosing Boris immediately collapses the government, due to the pre-announced defections. If we are still on extension it probably kills Brexit as well. The one thing Tory MPs like is being the government.
The challenge for Labour is to replace Corbyn soon after, as the only chance for the Tories under Boris is a quick election. An election isn't guaranteed, however - quite possibly we are seeing the beginnings now of a cross-party consensus that could survive long enough in power to desptach Brexit if the government does collapse.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
The plan was to indicate what the House can support. Now they can use AV to rank proposals and end up with something that gets a majority. Looks like soft Brexit will win the day.
People on PB were saying that soft Brexit is the answer two years ago. It was just our PM that couldn't see it.
The question for Monday will be with or without another referendum. Decision time for the people's vote.
I was surprised how well the second vote option did.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
The plan was to indicate what the House can support. Now they can use AV to rank proposals and end up with something that gets a majority. Looks like soft Brexit will win the day.
People on PB were saying that soft Brexit is the answer two years ago. It was just our PM that couldn't see it.
The question for Monday will be with or without another referendum. Decision time for the people's vote.
I was surprised how well the second vote option did.
As discussed upthread it was quite vague - it's the same trick that the People's Vote polling did where you ask if you want a referendum on X, but let people assume that the alternative to X will be their favourite of No Deal, Remain or Different Deal. Also it's all very well agreeing that you want a referendum on the thing, but that's no good if you can't agree a thing to have a referendum on in the first place.
OTOH since it's only indicative, there wasn't much incentive for MPs who like the option but are scared of upsetting local leavers to back it. The Kyle-Wilson move is to say, "this is a compromise, you won't like one side or the other but suck it up because it gets us out of the treacle". You don't want to have to take a bullet for that until you get to a vote that actually gets you out of the treacle.
We're running out of time again. If the Tories somehow get the DUP back on side, they've still got the obstacle of Bercow to face, which presumably would take time too. Meanwhile, we're still a way away from any consensus on any of the other options.
We're running out of time again. If the Tories somehow get the DUP back on side, they've still got the obstacle of Bercow again. Meanwhile, we still a way away from any consensus on any of the other options.
10 days excluding weekends.
If they can somehow get the DUP (not to mention their own irredeemables) back on side they can vote themselves a procedure that gets them around Bercow. No sign of this, though.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
The plan was to indicate what the House can support. Now they can use AV to rank proposals and end up with something that gets a majority. Looks like soft Brexit will win the day.
People on PB were saying that soft Brexit is the answer two years ago. It was just our PM that couldn't see it.
The question for Monday will be with or without another referendum. Decision time for the people's vote.
I was surprised how well the second vote option did.
On reflection, I don't think it did.
On a whipped vote, 27 Labour MP's opposed it, and several more, from Leave voting seats, abstained. 4 ex-Labour MP's voted against. On a free vote, only 8 Tories voted in favour and senior ministers abstained. In real terms, that suggests 346 Mp's oppose it (305 Con, 27 Labour, 10 DUP, 4 ex-Labour).
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
The plan was to indicate what the House can support. Now they can use AV to rank proposals and end up with something that gets a majority. Looks like soft Brexit will win the day.
People on PB were saying that soft Brexit is the answer two years ago. It was just our PM that couldn't see it.
The question for Monday will be with or without another referendum. Decision time for the people's vote.
I was surprised how well the second vote option did.
On reflection, I don't think it did.
On a whipped vote, 27 Labour MP's opposed it, and several more, from Leave voting seats, abstained. 4 ex-Labour MP's voted against. On a free vote, only 8 Tories voted in favour and senior ministers abstained. In real terms, that suggests 346 Mp's oppose it (305 Con, 27 Labour, 10 DUP, 4 ex-Labour).
If May swallowed her pride and whipped her deal with a vote, it would pass.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
It has identified a potential way forward that is likely to command a majority, if you combine a Ken Clarke Brexit with the opportunity to have a confirmatory referendum. If Parliament can identify a process allowing MPs to coalesce around that as an option on Monday then we break the impasse.
I’m still not sure that most of those in favour of a customs union understand what it means in practice. It’s the worst of all worlds, handing our incoming trade policy to the organisation we just left, while having to negotiate our outgoing trade policy with each third country individually with no scope to adjust our own tarrifs.
Wait for the EU trade deal with India, for example, that cuts duties on whisky imported from India to the EU (and the U.K.) to zero, while leaving export duties on U.K. whisky to India intact and for the U.K. to negotiate on their own.
All forms of Brecit are inferior to our existing deal in the EU with major opt outs, and that is the fundamental problem.
The question is really whether blue passports and other gimmicks make up for the loss of control inherent with Brexit.
We're running out of time again. If the Tories somehow get the DUP back on side, they've still got the obstacle of Bercow again. Meanwhile, we still a way away from any consensus on any of the other options.
10 days excluding weekends.
If they can somehow get the DUP (not to mention their own irredeemables) back on side they can vote themselves a procedure that gets them around Bercow. No sign of this, though.
Should the Government elect to tack a Referendum onto the Withdrawal Agreement then Bercow's opposition would presumably fall away (as this would surely constitute a significant change) and it would have a decent chance of passing on the back of Labour votes. The major problem with this, of course, is that May refuses to throw in the towel on a second vote, and as long as she does we are back to No Deal versus Revocation.
Again, without a Deal, Leaving on April 12 is the law, and No Deal is the default option. Tick tick tick...
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
The plan was to indicate what the House can support. Now they can use AV to rank proposals and end up with something that gets a majority. Looks like soft Brexit will win the day.
People on PB were saying that soft Brexit is the answer two years ago. It was just our PM that couldn't see it.
The question for Monday will be with or without another referendum. Decision time for the people's vote.
I was surprised how well the second vote option did.
On reflection, I don't think it did.
On a whipped vote, 27 Labour MP's opposed it, and several more, from Leave voting seats, abstained. 4 ex-Labour MP's voted against. On a free vote, only 8 Tories voted in favour and senior ministers abstained. In real terms, that suggests 346 Mp's oppose it (305 Con, 27 Labour, 10 DUP, 4 ex-Labour).
If May swallowed her pride and whipped her deal with a vote, it would pass.
Comments
Having a Catholic at their beck and call must be like the old days for them.
2). How ridiculous is Labour voting against the EEA option because it requires voting for May’s deal? If they support EEA end position, what is their actual objection to the WA? Other than it’s”May’s”
In any case, if there was a second Leave vote, everyone except the most extreme of Remainers would throw in the towel (certainly Labour would stop giving the idea of reversing Brexit any time at all in that scenario).
You cannot be sure no deal isn’t going to happen.
The EU made clear last week for lengthy extension they simply require Commons indicative votes, tick, showing what is close to what they want, permanent Customs Union, tick and they can then renegotiate on that if the UK contests the EU Parliament elections, final tick as May has said she will not allow No Deal unless Parliament votes for it and the only alternative until her Deal is passed is further extension and the UK contests the European Parliament elections which now looks increasingly inevitable
Will we ever know?
April Fools Day.
You can just see the headlines now can't you...
If no one does another single thing then we will Leave with No Deal.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1111049008825413637
(Accessible via Google)
"Scientists strike back against statistical tyranny
Many claim the use of ‘probability values’ is confusing
ANJANA AHUJA"
https://www.ft.com/content/36f9374c-5075-11e9-8f44-fe4a86c48b33
I sense the EU commission tusk in particular stroppy at council open to no deal, with EU parliament divided on wanting us to take part in EU elections.
I sense with trexit momentum May siding with majority in cabinet and party to allow clean brexit.
And where are you getting UK parliament and voters have to engineer no deal? They already have. It’s law and unless stopped happens
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes
22 Labour against revoke and 27 against second referendum.
https://twitter.com/GrantTucker/status/1111048673738280960
Nice to see the Dishonourable Member for Peterborough letting her inner bigot shine through... (the same label also applies to the others who voted against this motion)
See Tusk tweet for long extension below and Verhofstadt tweets below, they sense Parliament moving towards EUref2 and revoke or BINO and tonight's votes in the Commons prove that as they were the 2 highest options.
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1110838269040824320?s=20
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1110838052971261953?s=20
https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1110818745474314240?s=20
May has refused to allow No Deal unless the Commons votes for it, otherwise we contest the EU Parliament elections.
It is also no longer UK law we leave the EU, the date of Brexit was officially removed tonight, just replaced by the date we next request extension, not the date of a new Brexit
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1111051719851606018
https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/1111042565107826690?s=21
Everyone in the place thinks he's a complete and total idiot.
I wonder if the Labour MPs currently supporting this would really vote it through if TMay proposed it.
I don't think they really want to be in a position of giving TMay her deal, then fighting an election where their remainiac ex-supporters get to weigh in on whether they think that was a good idea.
Q3 - 1.9
Q2 - 3.8
Corbyn is now (just) odds against (at 2.04) to last until 1 July 2020.
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1111058149694455808
...because everyone knows that the backstop stuff is all bollocks to avoid upsetting people with fancy plans about trade deals and she's going to end up signing up to a Customs Union???
https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/status/1111091057238913025
(But it doesn't look good!)
Now they can use AV to rank proposals and end up with something that gets a majority.
Looks like soft Brexit will win the day.
Alternatively, there's a plan the Executive have already negotiated, ready to be signed to deliver Brexit tomorrow. Question is, how much longer do the Legislature want to dick around as pompous asses before they acknowledge they aren't good at playing at Executive.
I think we can guess....
Wait for the EU trade deal with India, for example, that cuts duties on whisky imported from India to the EU (and the U.K.) to zero, while leaving export duties on U.K. whisky to India intact and for the U.K. to negotiate on their own.
They also had the chance to put May's deal forward yesterday, but ducked it. The only way I can see it coming back now is if they can get it to the vote and come within at least a handful of carrying, as Ken Clarke's option did yesterday. I am not seeing the numbers for that right now.
If Monday can identify a consensus option, they will actually have done a pretty good job, in less than 1% of the time it took May to produce a deal that nobody seems to want.
The question for Monday will be with or without another referendum. Decision time for the people's vote.
Yet the Tories are a two-nation party now. One part, the larger, is completely absorbed in itself, and in winning an internal party battle to capture the leadership and the next phase of Brexit. The other part – historically the more influential but now in relative eclipse, even after this week – is struggling with other parties to shape the country’s future by the tenuous cross-party consensus that began to emerge today.
Today’s events illuminated the immense dangers facing the Tories more than any opportunities. But May’s party is not alone in facing dangers. The country is as divided as deeply as ever by Brexit and all that it represents. We are all, not just the Tory party, drifting into a slow kind of civil war. If we are wise and fortunate – as began to happen this week – it will be resolved in parliament. If we are unwise and unfortunate – as may happen under a new Tory leader – the conflict may become much harder to reconcile.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/27/theresa-may-brexit-civil-war-crisis-parliament
Her major problem in dealing with the drumbashers is that they say what they mean and do what they say. May has spent her entire adult life only having contact with other tories so she has never met anyone like that before and doesn't know how to deal with them.
The government's own deal got 202 votes at first attempt and 242 at the second. To get up to 264 in support of something is significant progress, particularly with a smaller electorate as the Cabinet all stayed away. The CU proposal was moved by the most senior and respected Conservative in the House.
Letwin doesn't have to claim anything - he simply needs to offer a decision process that takes MPs toward a consensus.
To get a broader cross-party consensus you'd need to tack on a confirmatory referendum. Whether or not to do so is the main decision to be taken Monday.
As for the next step I don't think he's going to say, "OK, we're done, CU got the most votes so that's the answer". I think now that he's shown up which options are DOA and which ones might be viable, he's going to try a different kind of vote and try to work out if there's anything that parliament can get behind.
Choosing Boris immediately collapses the government, due to the pre-announced defections. If we are still on extension it probably kills Brexit as well. The one thing Tory MPs like is being the government.
The challenge for Labour is to replace Corbyn soon after, as the only chance for the Tories under Boris is a quick election. An election isn't guaranteed, however - quite possibly we are seeing the beginnings now of a cross-party consensus that could survive long enough in power to desptach Brexit if the government does collapse.
OTOH since it's only indicative, there wasn't much incentive for MPs who like the option but are scared of upsetting local leavers to back it. The Kyle-Wilson move is to say, "this is a compromise, you won't like one side or the other but suck it up because it gets us out of the treacle". You don't want to have to take a bullet for that until you get to a vote that actually gets you out of the treacle.
10 days excluding weekends.
On a whipped vote, 27 Labour MP's opposed it, and several more, from Leave voting seats, abstained. 4 ex-Labour MP's voted against. On a free vote, only 8 Tories voted in favour and senior ministers abstained. In real terms, that suggests 346 Mp's oppose it (305 Con, 27 Labour, 10 DUP, 4 ex-Labour).
Edit: Kelvin Hopkins was absent, so that's 347.
The question is really whether blue passports and other gimmicks make up for the loss of control inherent with Brexit.
Again, without a Deal, Leaving on April 12 is the law, and No Deal is the default option. Tick tick tick...