Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The danger for TMay is that in wooing ERG hardliners she might

245678

Comments

  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    Maybe we need to go back to the Lidington temporary PM plan
  • Scott_P said:
    I, for one, welcome our new PM David Lidington.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    edited March 2019
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    May needs to go now. She offers nothing.

    She doesn't need to go now, the Letwin cabal are running Brexit instead.

    BBC1 has put a news special on Friday evening at 9.30pm - I assume they are expecting the MV3 vote then... not sure that is as likely to happen now

    Well it won't pass, but surely it is incumbent on them to at least try? The EU have May one last shot to pass the deal they agreed, may as well give it one last shot.

    What I don't get is why the DUP saying no would be any surprise at all to anyone - have they given any indication at all that they were considering switching to the deal?
    I don't buy the Bercow=Anti-Tory line but if he were, he'd let MV3 go forward to the House now to make the Government look even stupider.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I'll say this for the DUP, at least they spared giving May a night of false optimism for once, by being clear tonight they limited the usual deal overoptimism to a couple of hours at most.

    But why exactly did they not just make that statement 2 weeks ago? Does anyone believe they gave more than 5 seconds consideration to backing the deal in the time since MV2?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    LK got this right: in promising to go under condition x, TM has promised to go, full stop. Which means that revokers, remainers and softers see that the end of the tunnel is in sight. They’d be daft to give up now.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Charles said:

    Drutt said:

    DUP still against, but using the words 'unable to support'. I still think that means votes against.

    That phrasing allows room for abstention
    https://twitter.com/NigelDoddsDUP/status/1111010271395565568
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    May needs to go now. She offers nothing.

    She doesn't need to go now, the Letwin cabal are running Brexit instead.

    BBC1 has put a news special on Friday evening at 9.30pm - I assume they are expecting the MV3 vote then... not sure that is as likely to happen now

    Well it won't pass, but surely it is incumbent on them to at least try? The EU have May one last shot to pass the deal they agreed, may as well give it one last shot.

    What I don't get is why the DUP saying no would be any surprise at all to anyone - have they given any indication at all that they were considering switching to the deal?
    If you can’t even resign effectively you have nothing left.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    BBC1 has put a news special on Friday evening at 9.30pm - I assume they are expecting the MV3 vote then... not sure that is as likely to happen now

    6am Friday leaked CCHQ papers suggest a June election date
    8am Friday PM announces MV3 is a confidence vote.

    A few abstentions, including the DUP, but MV3 passes by 4


    You heard it here first. It's wrong, but you heard it here first.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Jonathan said:

    May has spent every last cent of political capital and exhausted her power buying votes for a deal nobody wants. One day she will wake up and realise what she has done.

    Hundreds of MPs want the deal. Just nowhere near a majority of them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    SI Passes 441 to 105

    So Brexit Day now moves from March 29th
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited March 2019
    Charles said:

    Drutt said:

    DUP still against, but using the words 'unable to support'. I still think that means votes against.

    That phrasing allows room for abstention
    That's what it looks like to me.

    "Unable to support" could mean against... Or abstain for another couple of Mil and the chance to pray for sinful Boris soul.... ;)
  • HYUFD said:

    SI Passes 441 to 105

    So Brexit Day now moves from March 29th

    Cancel the badges, lads.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Drutt said:

    BBC1 has put a news special on Friday evening at 9.30pm - I assume they are expecting the MV3 vote then... not sure that is as likely to happen now

    6am Friday leaked CCHQ papers suggest a June election date
    8am Friday PM announces MV3 is a confidence vote.

    A few abstentions, including the DUP, but MV3 passes by 4


    You heard it here first. It's wrong, but you heard it here first.
    Why would the DUP abstain?
  • trawltrawl Posts: 142

    It’s fun watching all the hardliners ruin their credibility for naught.

    Dominic Raab had the wit to keep his mouth shut, didn’t he? Might he be well-placed as a result to be the Platonic ideal ERG candidate? The rest seem to have shot their bolt now.

    Baker? Repotedly didn’t keep his mouth shut but didn’t fold either.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    looks as if some Brexit day badges will need melting down.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1111014824778059782
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Extension Regulations pass by 441 v 105

    House suspended while counting continues
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Jonathan said:

    May has spent every last cent of political capital and exhausted her power buying votes for a deal nobody wants. One day she will wake up and realise what she has done.

    When all this is over, people will talk about May as one of the greatest PMs of all time.
    You are absolutely right. The greatest PM without doubt. May outranks Churchill, Disraeli and Gladstone. Wibble.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,149
    edited March 2019
    That is just such an example of chaotic brexit

    Suspension as votes not all counted
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    HYUFD said:

    SI Passes 441 to 105

    So Brexit Day now moves from March 29th

    Cancel the badges, lads.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PI9jFp0cnig
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622

    Drutt said:

    BBC1 has put a news special on Friday evening at 9.30pm - I assume they are expecting the MV3 vote then... not sure that is as likely to happen now

    6am Friday leaked CCHQ papers suggest a June election date
    8am Friday PM announces MV3 is a confidence vote.

    A few abstentions, including the DUP, but MV3 passes by 4


    You heard it here first. It's wrong, but you heard it here first.
    Why would the DUP abstain?
    Because an election most likely robs them of their grip on Westminster's balls.....
  • rawzerrawzer Posts: 189

    Drutt said:

    BBC1 has put a news special on Friday evening at 9.30pm - I assume they are expecting the MV3 vote then... not sure that is as likely to happen now

    6am Friday leaked CCHQ papers suggest a June election date
    8am Friday PM announces MV3 is a confidence vote.

    A few abstentions, including the DUP, but MV3 passes by 4


    You heard it here first. It's wrong, but you heard it here first.
    Why would the DUP abstain?
    They dont want an election, its liable to remove their ability to run the country
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    rawzer said:

    Drutt said:

    BBC1 has put a news special on Friday evening at 9.30pm - I assume they are expecting the MV3 vote then... not sure that is as likely to happen now

    6am Friday leaked CCHQ papers suggest a June election date
    8am Friday PM announces MV3 is a confidence vote.

    A few abstentions, including the DUP, but MV3 passes by 4


    You heard it here first. It's wrong, but you heard it here first.
    Why would the DUP abstain?
    They dont want an election, its liable to remove their ability to run the country
    Not on current polls it isn't.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    HYUFD said:

    SI Passes 441 to 105

    So Brexit Day now moves from March 29th

    Cancel the badges, lads.
    If you take the minority view this is actually changing the date, we need to wait for the Lords tomorrow.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Charles said:

    Drutt said:

    DUP still against, but using the words 'unable to support'. I still think that means votes against.

    That phrasing allows room for abstention
    https://twitter.com/NigelDoddsDUP/status/1111010271395565568
    Crikey! Even their tweets carry a hint of underlying menace.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710

    That is just such an example of chaotic brexit

    Suspension as votes not all counted

    The rest of the last few years being so non-chaotic
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Ave_it said:

    Arlene needs to be told to keep out of it or we:
    - cut the money off
    - equalise abortion and gay marriage laws in NI (which we should do in any case)
    - close Stormont permanently and have direct NI government from London

    Have Parliament declare Northern Ireland independent, then take away their voting rights at westminster. Bish bosh job done.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    trawl said:

    It’s fun watching all the hardliners ruin their credibility for naught.

    Dominic Raab had the wit to keep his mouth shut, didn’t he? Might he be well-placed as a result to be the Platonic ideal ERG candidate? The rest seem to have shot their bolt now.

    Baker? Repotedly didn’t keep his mouth shut but didn’t fold either.

    There is more than one way of making an ass of yourself.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Drutt said:

    BBC1 has put a news special on Friday evening at 9.30pm - I assume they are expecting the MV3 vote then... not sure that is as likely to happen now

    6am Friday leaked CCHQ papers suggest a June election date
    8am Friday PM announces MV3 is a confidence vote.

    A few abstentions, including the DUP, but MV3 passes by 4


    You heard it here first. It's wrong, but you heard it here first.
    Why would the DUP abstain?
    Because an election most likely robs them of their grip on Westminster's balls.....
    As per my other answer to @rawzer... but in any event are they willing to sacrifice their backstop priciples to avoid an election - I don't think so.
  • kle4 said:
    This seems unlikely, though?

    The polling at present suggests a hung parliament, with the SNP making gains in the central belt of Scotland at the expense of Labour, Labour's vote in Leave areas squeezed by Continuity UKIP, and the Tories under pressure in some Remain-y areas from a handful of Lib Dems.

    It doesn't automatically follow that the annoyance of a GE would lead to a rush of blood to the electorate's head to deliver Corbz to Number Ten.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SI Passes 441 to 105

    So Brexit Day now moves from March 29th

    Cancel the badges, lads.
    If you take the minority view this is actually changing the date, we need to wait for the Lords tomorrow.
    They did so today IIRC
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited March 2019
    kle4 said:

    I'll say this for the DUP, at least they spared giving May a night of false optimism for once, by being clear tonight they limited the usual deal overoptimism to a couple of hours at most.

    But why exactly did they not just make that statement 2 weeks ago? Does anyone believe they gave more than 5 seconds consideration to backing the deal in the time since MV2?

    Very good point. The answer has just occurred to me. Because the DUP expected the ERG to hold out. They had no reason to trust the ERG before but now they KNOW the ERG has put their partisan advantage ahead of any principle that prevents a border in the Irish Sea.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    dixiedean said:

    Charles said:

    Drutt said:

    DUP still against, but using the words 'unable to support'. I still think that means votes against.

    That phrasing allows room for abstention
    https://twitter.com/NigelDoddsDUP/status/1111010271395565568
    Crikey! Even their tweets carry a hint of underlying menace.
    They need to send Boris over to NI tonight to charm Arlene... He'd have her purrrrrrrrrrrrrring within minutes. :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited March 2019

    kle4 said:
    This seems unlikely, though?

    The polling at present suggests a hung parliament, with the SNP making gains in the central belt of Scotland at the expense of Labour, Labour's vote in Leave areas squeezed by Continuity UKIP, and the Tories under pressure in some Remain-y areas from a handful of Lib Dems.

    It doesn't automatically follow that the annoyance of a GE would lead to a rush of blood to the electorate's head to deliver Corbz to Number Ten.
    Corbyn winning outright may or may not happen, but what is certain is the WA won't pass, and as much as I do not want one more and more MPs may start to think a GE at least has the potential to solve their problem by magically delivery a majority to one or the other of the big two.

    The DUP could give two sh*ts, I get the impression anything could happen on Brexit and they genuinely do not care so long as they are not involved in whatever passes. Anything for the chance to tell everyone how they are the only true patriots in the land and to scream never and shout about betrayal.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Never, never, never!
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    edited March 2019
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    May has spent every last cent of political capital and exhausted her power buying votes for a deal nobody wants. One day she will wake up and realise what she has done.

    When all this is over, people will talk about May as one of the greatest PMs of all time.
    You are absolutely right. The greatest PM without doubt. May outranks Churchill, Disraeli and Gladstone. Wibble.
    Well if we don't Brexit, you could certainly make a case for it. Let's see now....

    Numerous Conservative Leaders are destroyed by the Party's Eurosceptic wing. In desperation, Cameron tries to kill them off with a referendum he is sure Remain will win. It all goes horribly wrong and the wrong side wins. May steps in and conducts negotiations so ineptly, losing her Party's majority in the process, that the House is unable to accept the terms she has agreed and in the ensuing chaos, Brexit collapses and we stay in the EU.

    History later discovers that this was her cunning plan all along and she is lauded as the saviour of the nation, which would I suppose be true, whether she intended it or not.
  • kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    May has spent every last cent of political capital and exhausted her power buying votes for a deal nobody wants. One day she will wake up and realise what she has done.

    Hundreds of MPs want the deal. Just nowhere near a majority of them.
    A majority of MPs would accept the deal. They just don't want to be seen voting for it.
  • rawzerrawzer Posts: 189

    Drutt said:

    BBC1 has put a news special on Friday evening at 9.30pm - I assume they are expecting the MV3 vote then... not sure that is as likely to happen now

    6am Friday leaked CCHQ papers suggest a June election date
    8am Friday PM announces MV3 is a confidence vote.

    A few abstentions, including the DUP, but MV3 passes by 4


    You heard it here first. It's wrong, but you heard it here first.
    Why would the DUP abstain?
    Because an election most likely robs them of their grip on Westminster's balls.....
    As per my other answer to @rawzer... but in any event are they willing to sacrifice their backstop priciples to avoid an election - I don't think so.
    If I were cynical about the DUP, why would they run the risk of an election and losing control. I assume thats what @drutt was implying. Actually I'm not cynical about them, I think they just are that hardline and terrifyingly attached to their principles. How ever the Good Friday Agreement got done I have no idea
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Couldn't they have got Newcastle Central to count the MPs votes? - would save a lengthy delay.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited March 2019

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SI Passes 441 to 105

    So Brexit Day now moves from March 29th

    Cancel the badges, lads.
    If you take the minority view this is actually changing the date, we need to wait for the Lords tomorrow.
    They did so today IIRC
    Ok, thx. I see BF has closed both relevant bets. Someone has lost a lot of money expecting a different outcome. Unless indeed some sort of legal challenge is planned.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    Surely it's basically going to end up either a general election or a referendum.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    Alastair Campbell says perhaps the DUP don't want Brexit to happen... The penny is dropping.

    That's my take. Any form of Brexit puts the Union in more peril than No Brexit.

    If we No Brexit the chances of a border poll recede to near-zero as everyone will breathe a sigh of relief, north and south, and the idea of controversial constitutional referendums will be as popular as a fart in a sauna.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    Jonathan said:

    May has spent every last cent of political capital and exhausted her power buying votes for a deal nobody wants. One day she will wake up and realise what she has done.

    When all this is over, people will talk about May as one of the greatest PMs of all time.
    Only in the nuttiest parts of the Maudsley Hospital!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    Why will there be an election if we leave without a Deal on 12/4? I'm assuming the Cabinet won't seek a long extension as that would be tantamount to revocation so that's it.

    As of 13/4 the Government is in crisis management mode as the absurdities (presumably) and lack of preparation (possibly) become the story.

    May might actually do quite well in the immediate "crisis" as people tend to rally round and support the Govenrment at times of trouble. The problem then becomes where do we as a country go from here.

    Does it mean an election? I simply don't see what it would achieve.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    This seems unlikely, though?

    The polling at present suggests a hung parliament, with the SNP making gains in the central belt of Scotland at the expense of Labour, Labour's vote in Leave areas squeezed by Continuity UKIP, and the Tories under pressure in some Remain-y areas from a handful of Lib Dems.

    It doesn't automatically follow that the annoyance of a GE would lead to a rush of blood to the electorate's head to deliver Corbz to Number Ten.
    Corbyn winning outright may or may not happen, but what is certain is the WA won't pass, and as much as I do not want one more and more MPs may start to think a GE at least has the potential to solve their problem by magically delivery a majority to one or the other of the big two.

    The DUP could give two sh*ts, I get the impression anything could happen on Brexit and they genuinely do not care so long as they are not involved in whatever passes. Anything for the chance to tell everyone how they are the only true patriots in the land and to scream never and shout about betrayal.
    They know that short of a massive and sudden shift in public opinion in NI, they will retain their seats, so posturing works for them.

    Certain communities aren't suddenly going to vote for the Shinners, even though the demographics are against the Unionists in the long run.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    rawzer said:

    Drutt said:

    BBC1 has put a news special on Friday evening at 9.30pm - I assume they are expecting the MV3 vote then... not sure that is as likely to happen now

    6am Friday leaked CCHQ papers suggest a June election date
    8am Friday PM announces MV3 is a confidence vote.

    A few abstentions, including the DUP, but MV3 passes by 4


    You heard it here first. It's wrong, but you heard it here first.
    Why would the DUP abstain?
    Because an election most likely robs them of their grip on Westminster's balls.....
    As per my other answer to @rawzer... but in any event are they willing to sacrifice their backstop priciples to avoid an election - I don't think so.
    If I were cynical about the DUP, why would they run the risk of an election and losing control. I assume thats what @drutt was implying. Actually I'm not cynical about them, I think they just are that hardline and terrifyingly attached to their principles. How ever the Good Friday Agreement got done I have no idea
    We had a proper PM then.
  • Laying Boris is always wise.

    From a betting stand point when it to comes to next Tory leader.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710

    Couldn't they have got Newcastle Central to count the MPs votes? - would save a lengthy delay.

    Just think how bad it'd have been if all the potential options were included, not just the ones Bercow chose
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,289
    rawzer said:

    Drutt said:

    BBC1 has put a news special on Friday evening at 9.30pm - I assume they are expecting the MV3 vote then... not sure that is as likely to happen now

    6am Friday leaked CCHQ papers suggest a June election date
    8am Friday PM announces MV3 is a confidence vote.

    A few abstentions, including the DUP, but MV3 passes by 4


    You heard it here first. It's wrong, but you heard it here first.
    Why would the DUP abstain?
    Because an election most likely robs them of their grip on Westminster's balls.....
    As per my other answer to @rawzer... but in any event are they willing to sacrifice their backstop priciples to avoid an election - I don't think so.
    If I were cynical about the DUP, why would they run the risk of an election and losing control. I assume thats what @drutt was implying. Actually I'm not cynical about them, I think they just are that hardline and terrifyingly attached to their principles. How ever the Good Friday Agreement got done I have no idea
    It was done by the OUP/UUP iirc.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    This seems unlikely, though?

    The polling at present suggests a hung parliament, with the SNP making gains in the central belt of Scotland at the expense of Labour, Labour's vote in Leave areas squeezed by Continuity UKIP, and the Tories under pressure in some Remain-y areas from a handful of Lib Dems.

    It doesn't automatically follow that the annoyance of a GE would lead to a rush of blood to the electorate's head to deliver Corbz to Number Ten.
    Corbyn winning outright may or may not happen, but what is certain is the WA won't pass, and as much as I do not want one more and more MPs may start to think a GE at least has the potential to solve their problem by magically delivery a majority to one or the other of the big two.

    The DUP could give two sh*ts, I get the impression anything could happen on Brexit and they genuinely do not care so long as they are not involved in whatever passes. Anything for the chance to tell everyone how they are the only true patriots in the land and to scream never and shout about betrayal.
    They know that short of a massive and sudden shift in public opinion in NI, they will retain their seats, so posturing works for them.

    Certain communities aren't suddenly going to vote for the Shinners, even though the demographics are against the Unionists in the long run.
    Quite. They are completely safe, and can afford to be as obstructive as they like, even as they moan about what the rest of the UK will now do.
  • rawzerrawzer Posts: 189
    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Charles said:

    Drutt said:

    DUP still against, but using the words 'unable to support'. I still think that means votes against.

    That phrasing allows room for abstention
    https://twitter.com/NigelDoddsDUP/status/1111010271395565568
    Crikey! Even their tweets carry a hint of underlying menace.
    They need to send Boris over to NI tonight to charm Arlene... He'd have her purrrrrrrrrrrrrring within minutes. :D
    I cant begin to imagine what the DUP would do to Boris on his first day as PM. Invite him over, get him in the prefects room, lock the door, roast him, debag him, paint him orange and hang him out the window.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    The Tory party needs to go away and have a lie down in a dark room for about 10 years and come back only when it’s got this out of its system.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    stodge said:

    Why will there be an election if we leave without a Deal on 12/4? I'm assuming the Cabinet won't seek a long extension as that would be tantamount to revocation so that's it.

    As of 13/4 the Government is in crisis management mode as the absurdities (presumably) and lack of preparation (possibly) become the story.

    May might actually do quite well in the immediate "crisis" as people tend to rally round and support the Govenrment at times of trouble. The problem then becomes where do we as a country go from here.

    Does it mean an election? I simply don't see what it would achieve.

    Achieving something would not be the point. The hope it would achieve something would be, and surprising numbers of MPs seem convinced it would.
  • rawzerrawzer Posts: 189

    rawzer said:

    Drutt said:

    BBC1 has put a news special on Friday evening at 9.30pm - I assume they are expecting the MV3 vote then... not sure that is as likely to happen now

    6am Friday leaked CCHQ papers suggest a June election date
    8am Friday PM announces MV3 is a confidence vote.

    A few abstentions, including the DUP, but MV3 passes by 4


    You heard it here first. It's wrong, but you heard it here first.
    Why would the DUP abstain?
    Because an election most likely robs them of their grip on Westminster's balls.....
    As per my other answer to @rawzer... but in any event are they willing to sacrifice their backstop priciples to avoid an election - I don't think so.
    If I were cynical about the DUP, why would they run the risk of an election and losing control. I assume thats what @drutt was implying. Actually I'm not cynical about them, I think they just are that hardline and terrifyingly attached to their principles. How ever the Good Friday Agreement got done I have no idea
    We had a proper PM then.
    Whisper it quietly
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726
    rawzer said:

    Drutt said:

    BBC1 has put a news special on Friday evening at 9.30pm - I assume they are expecting the MV3 vote then... not sure that is as likely to happen now

    6am Friday leaked CCHQ papers suggest a June election date
    8am Friday PM announces MV3 is a confidence vote.

    A few abstentions, including the DUP, but MV3 passes by 4


    You heard it here first. It's wrong, but you heard it here first.
    Why would the DUP abstain?
    Because an election most likely robs them of their grip on Westminster's balls.....
    As per my other answer to @rawzer... but in any event are they willing to sacrifice their backstop priciples to avoid an election - I don't think so.
    If I were cynical about the DUP, why would they run the risk of an election and losing control. I assume thats what @drutt was implying. Actually I'm not cynical about them, I think they just are that hardline and terrifyingly attached to their principles. How ever the Good Friday Agreement got done I have no idea
    The DUP opposed the Good Friday Agreement.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    rawzer said:

    Drutt said:

    BBC1 has put a news special on Friday evening at 9.30pm - I assume they are expecting the MV3 vote then... not sure that is as likely to happen now

    6am Friday leaked CCHQ papers suggest a June election date
    8am Friday PM announces MV3 is a confidence vote.

    A few abstentions, including the DUP, but MV3 passes by 4


    You heard it here first. It's wrong, but you heard it here first.
    Why would the DUP abstain?
    Because an election most likely robs them of their grip on Westminster's balls.....
    As per my other answer to @rawzer... but in any event are they willing to sacrifice their backstop priciples to avoid an election - I don't think so.
    If I were cynical about the DUP, why would they run the risk of an election and losing control. I assume thats what @drutt was implying. Actually I'm not cynical about them, I think they just are that hardline and terrifyingly attached to their principles. How ever the Good Friday Agreement got done I have no idea
    We had a proper PM then.
    I had them abstaining because they were torn between the Scylla of voting against (election, Corbyn, lost power) and the Charybdis of voting for (backstop, union, arses kicked next elex)
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Oh FFS. Let's just revoke the shit out of this shit.

    ENOUGH.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726
    This was the DUP reaction to the Good Friday Agreement.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KEq3c0nbkkg
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    SeanT said:

    Oh FFS. Let's just revoke the shit out of this shit.

    ENOUGH.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wg2hUodOqrs
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Couldn't they have got Newcastle Central to count the MPs votes? - would save a lengthy delay.

    Just think how bad it'd have been if all the potential options were included, not just the ones Bercow chose
    Tbf none of the others were really options. I was surprised Bercow got no point of order challenges on his ruling, but his selection appears to have been accepted as reasonable.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    GIN1138 said:
    I love the quiet “never” at the end as if the 3 bellowed versions weren’t enough 😝
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    SeanT said:

    Oh FFS. Let's just revoke the shit out of this shit.

    ENOUGH.

    5.9 million now, go on, you know that you want to...

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    SeanT said:

    Oh FFS. Let's just revoke the shit out of this shit.

    ENOUGH.

    Traitor :wink:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    DUP. GE here we come...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    edited March 2019

    Laying Boris is always wise.

    From a betting stand point when it to comes to next Tory leader.

    Given a general election is increasingly likely either May wins and stays or Corbyn becomes PM in which case the Tories will be electing the Leader of the Opposition, in which case Boris very likely
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    rawzer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Charles said:

    Drutt said:

    DUP still against, but using the words 'unable to support'. I still think that means votes against.

    That phrasing allows room for abstention
    https://twitter.com/NigelDoddsDUP/status/1111010271395565568
    Crikey! Even their tweets carry a hint of underlying menace.
    They need to send Boris over to NI tonight to charm Arlene... He'd have her purrrrrrrrrrrrrring within minutes. :D
    I cant begin to imagine what the DUP would do to Boris on his first day as PM. Invite him over, get him in the prefects room, lock the door, roast him, debag him, paint him orange and hang him out the window.
    Nah, they'd give him some treatment he didn't enjoy.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    OK. Out of the loop here. What exactly has happened to the results of Brex Factor?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    SeanT said:

    Oh FFS. Let's just revoke the shit out of this shit.

    ENOUGH.

    Don’t give up Sean , some things in life are worth fighting for . Good things don’t come easy. I have a quiet confidence we will be leaving and we will make it work
  • Here we go.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    By flip-flopping so opportunistically, has Johnson just totally fucked his chance of replacing May?

    If there’s one thing that unites left and right, Remain and Leave Tories, it must be contempt of Johnson - surely?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    rawzer said:

    Drutt said:

    BBC1 has put a news special on Friday evening at 9.30pm - I assume they are expecting the MV3 vote then... not sure that is as likely to happen now

    6am Friday leaked CCHQ papers suggest a June election date
    8am Friday PM announces MV3 is a confidence vote.

    A few abstentions, including the DUP, but MV3 passes by 4


    You heard it here first. It's wrong, but you heard it here first.
    Why would the DUP abstain?
    Because an election most likely robs them of their grip on Westminster's balls.....
    As per my other answer to @rawzer... but in any event are they willing to sacrifice their backstop priciples to avoid an election - I don't think so.
    If I were cynical about the DUP, why would they run the risk of an election and losing control. I assume thats what @drutt was implying. Actually I'm not cynical about them, I think they just are that hardline and terrifyingly attached to their principles. How ever the Good Friday Agreement got done I have no idea
    The DUP opposed the Good Friday Agreement.
    And for some reason the people of NI rewarded them by making them the largest party for the past however many years.

    They seem the types who cannot see 5 minutes ahead, so intent on politically pleasuring themselves they don't care about any consequences. Every uttrance they put out seems designed purely to reassure themselves that they are the purest in all the lands.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Now if the Speaker's clock is accurate that HoC stream on the BBC is only 7 secs delayed - so how do you some of guys get the results so early?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253

    Surely it's basically going to end up either a general election or a referendum.

    Or both. Crisis GE with Labour running on REF2 and winning it.
  • Lot of abstentions on some of these votes.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Thatcher was so brilliantly icy and unflappable.

    That said, I rather liked Ian Paisley. He was what he was, a doughty defender of his people.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    kjohnw said:

    SeanT said:

    Oh FFS. Let's just revoke the shit out of this shit.

    ENOUGH.

    Don’t give up Sean , some things in life are worth fighting for . Good things don’t come easy. I have a quiet confidence we will be leaving and we will make it work
    I don't want to leave with this absolute shower of MPs running the show. We've proven unable to make it work, time to return with tail between our legs.
  • Ken Clarke's motion was the only thing that came close.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    All defeated.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    No plan has a majority.

    Awesome
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    IanB2 said:

    Couldn't they have got Newcastle Central to count the MPs votes? - would save a lengthy delay.

    Just think how bad it'd have been if all the potential options were included, not just the ones Bercow chose
    Tbf none of the others were really options. I was surprised Bercow got no point of order challenges on his ruling, but his selection appears to have been accepted as reasonable.
    I don't think Bercow does reasonable
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    edited March 2019
    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal




  • Well that is clear then
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    By flip-flopping so opportunistically, has Johnson just totally fucked his chance of replacing May?

    If there’s one thing that unites left and right, Remain and Leave Tories, it must be contempt of Johnson - surely?

    +1

    He was a busted flush two years ago, I have no idea why people still think him a contender now. Perhaps because of the paucity of alternatives. But surely Johnson has been shown time and time again now to be a self-serving opportunist without a backbone.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    That was worthwhile :lol:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726
    Referendum gets the highest vote - 268.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888

    rawzer said:

    Drutt said:

    BBC1 has put a news special on Friday evening at 9.30pm - I assume they are expecting the MV3 vote then... not sure that is as likely to happen now

    6am Friday leaked CCHQ papers suggest a June election date
    8am Friday PM announces MV3 is a confidence vote.

    A few abstentions, including the DUP, but MV3 passes by 4


    You heard it here first. It's wrong, but you heard it here first.
    Why would the DUP abstain?
    Because an election most likely robs them of their grip on Westminster's balls.....
    As per my other answer to @rawzer... but in any event are they willing to sacrifice their backstop priciples to avoid an election - I don't think so.
    If I were cynical about the DUP, why would they run the risk of an election and losing control. I assume thats what @drutt was implying. Actually I'm not cynical about them, I think they just are that hardline and terrifyingly attached to their principles. How ever the Good Friday Agreement got done I have no idea
    The DUP opposed the Good Friday Agreement.
    "The British–Irish Agreement came into force on 2 December 1999. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) was the only major political group in Northern Ireland to oppose the Good Friday Agreement."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited March 2019
    MPs Indicative Votes (for v against):

    B - (Baron: No deal) 160 v 400
    D - (Boles: CM2) 188 v 283
    H - (Eustace: EFTA+EEA) 65 v 377
    J - (Clarke: WA+CU) 264 v 272
    K - (Corbyn: Labour deal) 237 v 307
    L - (Cherry: Revoke to avoid no deal) 184 v 293
    M - (Beckett: WA+referendum) 268 v 295
    O - (Fysh: Malthouse B ) 139 v 422

    All NO

    AV on Monday?!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Nothing even close to 300, what a shambles.
  • What was the fucking point of all that?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Seriously like seriously, every single one even with cabinet abstaining....the hoc again showing they are brilliant at knowing what they don't want, and fucking useless at showing what it does want.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    The No's having a very good night...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    dixiedean said:

    OK. Out of the loop here. What exactly has happened to the results of Brex Factor?

    Danny Dyer was the prophet of all this and Nothing Has Changed!

    https://youtu.be/MpGcxgnQfkI
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    Oh FFS. Let's just revoke the shit out of this shit.

    ENOUGH.

    5.9 million now, go on, you know that you want to...

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
    How many times have you signed Foxy?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal


    Revoke did even better than I expected there.

    Just make Ken Clarke PM for christ's sake.
This discussion has been closed.