I'm really not sure of the legitimacy of railroading something through that only got 260 odd votes in its first go, despite MPs getting multiple picks. The Customs Union option was way off a majority, didn't command cross party support, got next to no governing party support and didn't even get the most votes out of the all the options. Is Letwin really going to claim on Monday that the mish mash of Labour MPs, a tiny Tory pro remain section and SNP/LD/Tig third choice votes is the valid desired wish of the House that must be acted upon?
The Customs Union went down 264 vs 272, that's definitely not "way off a majority".
As for the next step I don't think he's going to say, "OK, we're done, CU got the most votes so that's the answer". I think now that he's shown up which options are DOA and which ones might be viable, he's going to try a different kind of vote and try to work out if there's anything that parliament can get behind.
Exactly. They need a system where you can't vote "no", since we all know there has to be an option, and everything from Revoke through no deal was on the table. Eliminate the obvious non-runners, decide whether to introduce some new choices based on combinations of the more popular options, and run the remaining options with either AV or multiple ballots.
We're running out of time again. If the Tories somehow get the DUP back on side, they've still got the obstacle of Bercow again. Meanwhile, we still a way away from any consensus on any of the other options.
10 days excluding weekends.
If they can somehow get the DUP (not to mention their own irredeemables) back on side they can vote themselves a procedure that gets them around Bercow. No sign of this, though.
Should the Government elect to tack a Referendum onto the Withdrawal Agreement then Bercow's opposition would presumably fall away (as this would surely constitute a significant change) and it would have a decent chance of passing on the back of Labour votes. The major problem with this, of course, is that May refuses to throw in the towel on a second vote, and as long as she does we are back to No Deal versus Revocation.
Again, without a Deal, Leaving on April 12 is the law, and No Deal is the default option. Tick tick tick...
Yup, I'd have thought MV+Referendum would be a new thing, but like I say, if she's showing up with enough votes to pass whatever she's trying to pass then she should also have enough votes to vote to have the vote, so Bercow isn't really an obstacle here in the first place.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
The plan was to indicate what the House can support. Now they can use AV to rank proposals and end up with something that gets a majority. Looks like soft Brexit will win the day.
People on PB were saying that soft Brexit is the answer two years ago. It was just our PM that couldn't see it.
The question for Monday will be with or without another referendum. Decision time for the people's vote.
I was surprised how well the second vote option did.
On reflection, I don't think it did.
On a whipped vote, 27 Labour MP's opposed it, and several more, from Leave voting seats, abstained. 4 ex-Labour MP's voted against. On a free vote, only 8 Tories voted in favour and senior ministers abstained. In real terms, that suggests 346 Mp's oppose it (305 Con, 27 Labour, 10 DUP, 4 ex-Labour).
If May swallowed her pride and whipped her deal with a vote, it would pass.
Not necessarily.
Perhaps not, but nonetheless the Beckett proposal fell short by less than 30 votes even when the Tories were given a free vote and the cabinet sat it out. If Parliament really wants to avoid being confronted with a choice between revoke and the cliff edge on April 11th then this seems to be the most viable alternative. The question now is whether or not the willpower exists to make it happen.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
The plan was to indicate what the House can support. Now they can use AV to rank proposals and end up with something that gets a majority. Looks like soft Brexit will win the day.
People on PB were saying that soft Brexit is the answer two years ago. It was just our PM that couldn't see it.
The question for Monday will be with or without another referendum. Decision time for the people's vote.
I was surprised how well the second vote option did.
On reflection, I don't think it did.
On a whipped vote, 27 Labour MP's opposed it, and several more, from Leave voting seats, abstained. 4 ex-Labour MP's voted against. On a free vote, only 8 Tories voted in favour and senior ministers abstained. In real terms, that suggests 346 Mp's oppose it (305 Con, 27 Labour, 10 DUP, 4 ex-Labour).
If May swallowed her pride and whipped her deal with a vote, it would pass.
Not necessarily.
Perhaps not, but nonetheless the Beckett proposal fell short by less than 30 votes even when the Tories were given a free vote and the cabinet sat it out. If Parliament really wants to avoid being confronted with a choice between revoke and the cliff edge on April 11th then this seems to be the most viable alternative. The question now is whether or not the willpower exists to make it happen.
It seems to me that the Conservative Party must really, really hate the idea of a Second Referendum if only 8 support it on a free vote (and polling plainly bears this out).
Brexit was, is and always will be undeliverable because the Brexit people were promised was never remotely possible. Brexit involves profoundly difficult, deeply unpopular choices. We are where we are because fools and liars denied this.
This is the fundamental, undeniable truth about Brexit.
Perhaps not, but nonetheless the Beckett proposal fell short by less than 30 votes even when the Tories were given a free vote and the cabinet sat it out. If Parliament really wants to avoid being confronted with a choice between revoke and the cliff edge on April 11th then this seems to be the most viable alternative. The question now is whether or not the willpower exists to make it happen.
I guess the other question is how much hardball the EU side wants to play. There are now at least two options that look like they might fly if TMay got behind them (although neither is a cert), CU and Deal-Subject-To-Referendum. But if TMay doesn't want to get behind any of them, parliament can't force her to.
So do they refuse an extension unless she'll commit to something, or do they let her just lie there luxuriating in the treacle?
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
The plan was to indicate what the House can support. Now they can use AV to rank proposals and end up with something that gets a majority. Looks like soft Brexit will win the day.
People on PB were saying that soft Brexit is the answer two years ago. It was just our PM that couldn't see it.
The question for Monday will be with or without another referendum. Decision time for the people's vote.
I was surprised how well the second vote option did.
On reflection, I don't think it did.
On a whipped vote, 27 Labour MP's opposed it, and several more, from Leave voting seats, abstained. 4 ex-Labour MP's voted against. On a free vote, only 8 Tories voted in favour and senior ministers abstained. In real terms, that suggests 346 Mp's oppose it (305 Con, 27 Labour, 10 DUP, 4 ex-Labour).
If May swallowed her pride and whipped her deal with a vote, it would pass.
Not necessarily.
Perhaps not, but nonetheless the Beckett proposal fell short by less than 30 votes even when the Tories were given a free vote and the cabinet sat it out. If Parliament really wants to avoid being confronted with a choice between revoke and the cliff edge on April 11th then this seems to be the most viable alternative. The question now is whether or not the willpower exists to make it happen.
The fact that they haven’t cancelled weekends yet proves how unserious they all are IMO
HOC to pass MV3 was evens (or even marginally shorter) earlier on. It went out to 3/1 on the DUP's announcement, now back to 2/1.
Putting the MV3 effectively into the WA and having it as a confidence vote on Friday seems like the only shot the PM's got to get the deal through. On my maths she'd get 312 Con votes (Clarke not standing again so he, and the DUP, abstain). She'd still need a couple of Flint / Barron / Hoey / Skinner to tie, and of course she'd need one more because, y'know, Bercow.
THE DUP DO NOT ABSTAIN ON THE UNION. To quote,Dodds earlier.
The idea the DUP would abstain is up there with The SNP would support a Tory government in a vote of confidence in the "Why would any political commentator think this" stakes.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
The plan was to indicate what the House can support. Now they can use AV to rank proposals and end up with something that gets a majority. Looks like soft Brexit will win the day.
People on PB were saying that soft Brexit is the answer two years ago. It was just our PM that couldn't see it.
The question for Monday will be with or without another referendum. Decision time for the people's vote.
I was surprised how well the second vote option did.
On reflection, I don't think it did.
On a whipped vote, 27 Labour MP's opposed it, and several more, from Leave voting seats, abstained. 4 ex-Labour MP's voted against. On a free vote, only 8 Tories voted in favour and senior ministers abstained. In real terms, that suggests 346 Mp's oppose it (305 Con, 27 Labour, 10 DUP, 4 ex-Labour).
If May swallowed her pride and whipped her deal with a vote, it would pass.
Not necessarily.
Perhaps not, but nonetheless the Beckett proposal fell short by less than 30 votes even when the Tories were given a free vote and the cabinet sat it out. If Parliament really wants to avoid being confronted with a choice between revoke and the cliff edge on April 11th then this seems to be the most viable alternative. The question now is whether or not the willpower exists to make it happen.
It seems to me that the Conservative Party must really, really hate the idea of a Second Referendum if only 8 support it on a free vote (and polling plainly bears this out).
And yet it is a clear, obvious way out of this mess. She would get her deal passed by HoC and would be well positioned to go to the country.
It's interesting that if just 14 MPs had voted the other way, the option of holding a second referendum would have passed.
It’s a damn sight closer to passing than Mays deal.
Yeah but it doesn't include loads of the payroll vote in the no lobby.
The assumption - not a given admittedly - is that the government wants a consensus and would therefore remove the barriers they have put up to prevent such a consensus.
The explicit statement - as opposed to your assumption - is that May will not support anything that goes against her manifesto pledges. So no CU, no SM and no Losers Revote.
Are we definitely not leaving tomorrow? I know the EU have given us a free pass to stay for another couple of weeks, but what has been done under British law to extend the date?
It's interesting that if just 14 MPs had voted the other way, the option of holding a second referendum would have passed.
It’s a damn sight closer to passing than Mays deal.
Yeah but it doesn't include loads of the payroll vote in the no lobby.
The assumption - not a given admittedly - is that the government wants a consensus and would therefore remove the barriers they have put up to prevent such a consensus.
The explicit statement - as opposed to your assumption - is that May will not support anything that goes against her manifesto pledges. So no CU, no SM and no Losers Revote.
And in that case no workable Brexit.
Yes, at the moment that would mean revocation, no-deal, or replacement of May by someone more favourable in the time allowed.
Are we definitely not leaving tomorrow? I know the EU have given us a free pass to stay for another couple of weeks, but what has been done under British law to extend the date?
The Regulations changing the date were carried yesterday.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
The plan was to indicate what the House can support. Now they can use AV to rank proposals and end up with something that gets a majority. Looks like soft Brexit will win the day.
People on PB were saying that soft Brexit is the answer two years ago. It was just our PM that couldn't see it.
The question for Monday will be with or without another referendum. Decision time for the people's vote.
I was surprised how well the second vote option did.
On reflection, I don't think it did.
On a whipped vote, 27 Labour MP's opposed it, and several more, from Leave voting seats, abstained. 4 ex-Labour MP's voted against. On a free vote, only 8 Tories voted in favour and senior ministers abstained. In real terms, that suggests 346 Mp's oppose it (305 Con, 27 Labour, 10 DUP, 4 ex-Labour).
If May swallowed her pride and whipped her deal with a vote, it would pass.
May's Deal with referendum is risky for all factions:
If you are a hard Brexiteer, you risk remaining. If you are a Remainer, you risk baking in a hard Brexit that has been endorsed by a vote. If you are a soft Leaver, you will almost certainly get either Remain or Hard Brexiteer, neither of which you want.
While it's attractive option in terms of driving to a clear outcome, the risks of getting a clear outcome they don't want is probably too high for too many people.
May needs to move on from her deal. It Will Not Pass.
If there's a third vote, and the margin of defeat is smaller than the second, she will certainly want a fourth vote.
No MV3 will be the last gasp. All the reasons why people might switch in her favour are in play; the reasons why people won't - including now the prospect of an even more hardline PM - are growing stronger. She's a dead PM walking and the opposition have no reason to hasten her replacement.
Are we definitely not leaving tomorrow? I know the EU have given us a free pass to stay for another couple of weeks, but what has been done under British law to extend the date?
The Regulations changing the date were carried yesterday.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
The plan was to indicate what the House can support. Now they can use AV to rank proposals and end up with something that gets a majority. Looks like soft Brexit will win the day.
People on PB were saying that soft Brexit is the answer two years ago. It was just our PM that couldn't see it.
The question for Monday will be with or without another referendum. Decision time for the people's vote.
I was surprised how well the second vote option did.
On reflection, I don't think it did.
On a whipped vote, 27 Labour MP's opposed it, and several more, from Leave voting seats, abstained. 4 ex-Labour MP's voted against. On a free vote, only 8 Tories voted in favour and senior ministers abstained. In real terms, that suggests 346 Mp's oppose it (305 Con, 27 Labour, 10 DUP, 4 ex-Labour).
If May swallowed her pride and whipped her deal with a vote, it would pass.
May's Deal with referendum is risky for all factions:
If you are a hard Brexiteer, you risk remaining. If you are a Remainer, you risk baking in a hard Brexit that has been endorsed by a vote. If you are a soft Leaver, you will almost certainly get either Remain or Hard Brexiteer, neither of which you want.
While it's attractive option in terms of driving to a clear outcome, the risks of getting a clear outcome they don't want is probably too high for too many people.
On the other hand, if it comes down to votes either for that or revocation, I think a large group of the Tories could even try and get rid of May to achieve it. It postpones, and possibly ameliorates, their self-destruction. The no-deal and revocation without a referendum options are much worse for them.
Morning. So the MPs voted against everything. What was the point of that exercise exactly?
The plan was to indicate what the House can support. Now they can use AV to rank proposals and end up with something that gets a majority. Looks like soft Brexit will win the day.
People on PB were saying that soft Brexit is the answer two years ago. It was just our PM that couldn't see it.
The question for Monday will be with or without another referendum. Decision time for the people's vote.
I was surprised how well the second vote option did.
On reflection, I don't think it did.
On a whipped vote, 27 Labour MP's opposed it, and several more, from Leave voting seats, abstained. 4 ex-Labour MP's voted against. On a free vote, only 8 Tories voted in favour and senior ministers abstained. In real terms, that suggests 346 Mp's oppose it (305 Con, 27 Labour, 10 DUP, 4 ex-Labour).
If May swallowed her pride and whipped her deal with a vote, it would pass.
May's Deal with referendum is risky for all factions:
If you are a hard Brexiteer, you risk remaining. If you are a Remainer, you risk baking in a hard Brexit that has been endorsed by a vote. If you are a soft Leaver, you will almost certainly get either Remain or Hard Brexiteer, neither of which you want.
While it's attractive option in terms of driving to a clear outcome, the risks of getting a clear outcome they don't want is probably too high for too many people.
It's the only way to bring the deal back from the dead. Otherwise we are looking at a softer Brexit, and that too might be linked to a referendum. Remainers know that revocation almost certainly needs a referendum anyway.
Are we definitely not leaving tomorrow? I know the EU have given us a free pass to stay for another couple of weeks, but what has been done under British law to extend the date?
The Regulations changing the date were carried yesterday.
Comments
It's definitively cleared up one thing though.
Guy Fawkes was right.
Glancing at the numbers, I would've thought May's deal subject to a second referendum would be the way MPs might jump.
So do they refuse an extension unless she'll commit to something, or do they let her just lie there luxuriating in the treacle?
If you are a hard Brexiteer, you risk remaining.
If you are a Remainer, you risk baking in a hard Brexit that has been endorsed by a vote.
If you are a soft Leaver, you will almost certainly get either Remain or Hard Brexiteer, neither of which you want.
While it's attractive option in terms of driving to a clear outcome, the risks of getting a clear outcome they don't want is probably too high for too many people.
resign
if you vote for the next one