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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The danger for TMay is that in wooing ERG hardliners she might

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  • As I said, donkeys led by donkeys.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Nothing has changed.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    GE now.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    OK. Out of the loop here. What exactly has happened to the results of Brex Factor?

    Danny Dyer was the prophet of all this and Nothing Has Changed!

    https://youtu.be/MpGcxgnQfkI
    Never understood why people find that so compelling.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    Letwin confirms the Commons will reconsider the matter on Monday based on preferences but urges MPs to vote for the Deal before then
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    What was the fucking point of all that?

    To allow Letwin to extend his control over more days.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Well this experiment has utterly fucking failed.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    Sack the lot of them.
  • As I said, donkeys led by donkeys.

    That is unkind to donkeys
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    Meaningless Votes!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    So much for the common market 2.0 was going to dead popular...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    edited March 2019
    Also only permanent Customs Union plus Deal and EUref2 got more votes than May's Deal did in MV2
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710

    Well this experiment has utterly fucking failed.

    It was always intended as an experiment in two parts.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Jesus fucking Christ. Blow up parliament and start again. Elect some lemurs. Earthworms. A bunch of daffodils could form the Cabinet. They couldn't do worse.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Perhaps may telling cabinet to abstain was the one bit of good tactics she has come up with.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    Oh FFS. Let's just revoke the shit out of this shit.

    ENOUGH.

    5.9 million now, go on, you know that you want to...

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
    How many times have you signed Foxy?
    Just the once. Though Mrs Foxy, Fox Jr and his young lady have signed too.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited March 2019
    That’s more informative than I expected. Note how close Beckett was. It looks like when other options are struck out it will be the last standing.

    EDIT Clarke is even closer. Those are the two serious contenders now.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,400
    IanB2 said:

    MPs Indicative Votes (for v against):

    B - (Baron: No deal) 160 v 400
    D - (Boles: CM2) 188 v 283
    H - (Eustace: EFTA+EEA) 65 v 377
    J - (Clarke: WA+CU) 264 v 272
    K - (Corbyn: Labour deal) 237 v 307
    L - (Cherry: Revoke to avoid no deal) 184 v 293
    M - (Beckett: WA+referendum) 268 v 295
    O - (Fysh: Malthouse B ) 139 v 422

    All NO

    AV on Monday?!

    The 160 for No Deal is quite remarkable.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Sounds like MV3 is coming. Sometime.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal




    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    HYUFD said:

    Letwin confirms the Commons will reconsider the matter on Monday based on preferences but urges MPs to vote for the Deal before then

    That is the only way. Tell MPs that the most preferred option will win. Doesn't need a majority. Just needs to be the most popular. Make them sweat and starve until they decide.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    dr_spyn said:
    Ken Clarke's option came closest to victory. It's not to the Conservative Party's credit that he never became their leader.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,811
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal




    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
    Yes, both more popular than the government's shit deal.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    That’s more informative than I expected. Note how close Beckett was. It looks like when other options are struck out it will be the last standing.



    The answer is WA plus CU plus a confirmatory referendum

    Whether MPs will get there on Monday remains to be seen
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    That’s more informative than I expected. Note how close Beckett was. It looks like when other options are struck out it will be the last standing.

    EDIT Clarke is even closer. Those are the two serious contenders now.

    Yes, I'm very surprised by how close the second referendum idea came. A lot less Labour MPs opposed than expected, presumably.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited March 2019
    From a connection of mine who actually works for the EU:

    “The sight of all those MPs, their faces collapsed into their chins, poring over their ballot papers in the hope that Bercow would call bingo, before discovering that they had failed to vote for anything at all, was the funniest thing ever. Like a bunch of befuddled OAPs.”
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal




    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
    Yes, both more popular than the government's shit deal.
    Barely, given the number who have since switched to it since MV2 and those who have already proven willing to vote for it.
  • Bercow has lost it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    IanB2 said:

    Sounds like MV3 is coming. Sometime.

    I don't think the Deal could survive a third defeat.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The DUP object to MV3 on a point of principle, unlike Boris

    Boris is such a monumental blob of narcissistic, corrupted and revolting humanity that he is not fit to clean my dog's anus with his tongue....he is the one who is singularly waiting for a special place in hell. Compared to him Chris Chope is a veritable fine fella.
    Heh.
    Reading people like Iris Murdoch or E. M. Forster has made me think that one of the advantages of being a fiction writer might be the option to torment, knock off, or otherwise punish stylised versions of people one dislikes. BJ offers much scope for that I think.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    dr_spyn said:
    Ken Clarke's option came closest to victory. It's not to the Conservative Party's credit that he never became their leader.
    Wasn’t this all expected? The point is we can rule out those that were miles off and concentrate on the ones that were close. Ken and Beckett
  • Couldn't they have got Newcastle Central to count the MPs votes? - would save a lengthy delay.

    You mean Sunderland? then again it is a European ballot . . .
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,289

    That’s more informative than I expected. Note how close Beckett was. It looks like when other options are struck out it will be the last standing.

    EDIT Clarke is even closer. Those are the two serious contenders now.

    I like your optimism. But, fuck a doodle doo.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal




    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
    Yes, both more popular than the government's shit deal.
    Er, it's the EU's shit deal :lol:
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The blame for this ridiculous situation lies with whoever decided the HofC got a vote on the PMs deal
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    The way things are going we'll end up with a deal v remain referendum where both deal and referendum got beaten in multiple votes
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    IanB2 said:

    MPs Indicative Votes (for v against):

    B - (Baron: No deal) 160 v 400
    D - (Boles: CM2) 188 v 283
    H - (Eustace: EFTA+EEA) 65 v 377
    J - (Clarke: WA+CU) 264 v 272
    K - (Corbyn: Labour deal) 237 v 307
    L - (Cherry: Revoke to avoid no deal) 184 v 293
    M - (Beckett: WA+referendum) 268 v 295
    O - (Fysh: Malthouse B ) 139 v 422

    All NO

    AV on Monday?!

    The 160 for No Deal is quite remarkable.
    As is the 184 for straight Revoke. Like getting compromise between an antelope and a starving lion.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    If there was some way of kicking out every current MP forever, I'd support that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Honestly what was the fucking point of that.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Awful lot of overreacting going on, considering everyone knew all options were going to fail first time round.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Have British politicians ever been held in such contempt as they are right now?

    At least in the catastrophe of the Iraq War you could accept that Blair argued his case passionately and eloquently, and his opponents- like Robin Cook - were equally articulate and plausible (and, it turned out, much wiser than Blair).

    There is no one on any side of this argument who is emerging with credit, certainly not the turncoat Tiggers, certainly not the ultra-Brexiteers, and certainly not Corbyn's Labour. Stupid mediocrity and desperate careerism prevail throughout.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Arlene Foster, the leader of the DUP, says that her party did want to get a deal.

    "But we feel, very fundamentally, that the backstop in that withdrawal agreement makes it impossible for us to sign up to the withdrawal agreement," she said.

    "And you know what, I regret that because we wanted to get a deal, a deal that worked for the whole of the Union


    What a sanctimonious pile of drivel.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Silly bloody Letwin strikes again. :D
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal




    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
    Indeed. The indicative vote round one has done its job. Usual overreaction bullshit on PB.
  • IanB2 said:

    Sounds like MV3 is coming. Sometime.

    Over Bercow's dead body. (not literally of course).
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Soubry really is a piece of work...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    _Anazina_ said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Ken Clarke's option came closest to victory. It's not to the Conservative Party's credit that he never became their leader.
    Wasn’t this all expected? The point is we can rule out those that were miles off and concentrate on the ones that were close. Ken and Beckett
    The Telegraph reported last Saturday May could shift to her Deal plus permanent Customs Union if MV3 fails, so Clarke's being closest means it could be the end result of Brexit
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    IanB2 said:

    MPs Indicative Votes (for v against):

    B - (Baron: No deal) 160 v 400
    D - (Boles: CM2) 188 v 283
    H - (Eustace: EFTA+EEA) 65 v 377
    J - (Clarke: WA+CU) 264 v 272
    K - (Corbyn: Labour deal) 237 v 307
    L - (Cherry: Revoke to avoid no deal) 184 v 293
    M - (Beckett: WA+referendum) 268 v 295
    O - (Fysh: Malthouse B ) 139 v 422

    All NO

    AV on Monday?!

    The 160 for No Deal is quite remarkable.

    No deal got smashed to be honest.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    isam said:

    The blame for this ridiculous situation lies with whoever decided the HofC got a vote on the PMs deal

    Wasn't that Grieve? (But I bet Letwins prints are on it too)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    IanB2 said:

    That’s more informative than I expected. Note how close Beckett was. It looks like when other options are struck out it will be the last standing.



    The answer is WA plus CU plus a confirmatory referendum

    Whether MPs will get there on Monday remains to be seen
    That does seem to be where this is going.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,811

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal




    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
    Yes, both more popular than the government's shit deal.
    Er, it's the EU's shit deal :lol:
    It's the shit deal negotiated between the government and the EU whose parameters of shitness were dictated mainly by the government's shit red lines. But at least we can agree it's shit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    And some MPs have the gall to complaint that May is ignoring them or treating them badly. She may well have been doing so, she deserves much criticisim indeed, but so many of those MPs are just trying to distract from the fact none of them have a clue and all are still insisting on the same thing May is - do what I say.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    It is difficult to be sure, but one assumes an MV3 would have attracted votes in the 260s.

    On those grounds, can we just restrict the vote to May’s Deal v May’s Deal + Customs Union, and then have a further vote pls on whether or not to add a confirmatory referendum?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Couldn't they have got Newcastle Central to count the MPs votes? - would save a lengthy delay.

    You mean Sunderland? then again it is a European ballot . . .
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/08/newcastle-first-declare-60-minutes-labour-holds-seat/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622

    IanB2 said:

    MPs Indicative Votes (for v against):

    B - (Baron: No deal) 160 v 400
    D - (Boles: CM2) 188 v 283
    H - (Eustace: EFTA+EEA) 65 v 377
    J - (Clarke: WA+CU) 264 v 272
    K - (Corbyn: Labour deal) 237 v 307
    L - (Cherry: Revoke to avoid no deal) 184 v 293
    M - (Beckett: WA+referendum) 268 v 295
    O - (Fysh: Malthouse B ) 139 v 422

    All NO

    AV on Monday?!

    The 160 for No Deal is quite remarkable.
    That's a whole mess of We're Not Compromising......
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    May at least finally gets a chance to be smug tonight, she deserves it!
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Well this experiment has utterly fucking failed.

    It was always intended as an experiment in two parts.

    Exactly.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited March 2019
    Danny565 said:

    That’s more informative than I expected. Note how close Beckett was. It looks like when other options are struck out it will be the last standing.

    EDIT Clarke is even closer. Those are the two serious contenders now.

    Yes, I'm very surprised by how close the second referendum idea came. A lot less Labour MPs opposed than expected, presumably.
    It's not a second referendum. It's a confirmatory referendum on the Deal. Remain wouldn't be on the ballot paper.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    edited March 2019
    Any data if DUP and TIG voted as blocks on indicative votes, and how assorted independents voted? If things come to tight crunch votes in future there could be some indication there.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    SeanT said:

    Have British politicians ever been held in such contempt as they are right now?

    At least in the catastrophe of the Iraq War you could accept that Blair argued his case passionately and eloquently, and his opponents- like Robin Cook - were equally articulate and plausible (and, it turned out, much wiser than Blair).

    There is no one on any side of this argument who is emerging with credit, certainly not the turncoat Tiggers, certainly not the ultra-Brexiteers, and certainly not Corbyn's Labour. Stupid mediocrity and desperate careerism prevail throughout.

    I think May has emerged with credit. I certainly like her more now than I did 2 years ago
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    edited March 2019
    Endillion said:

    Danny565 said:

    That’s more informative than I expected. Note how close Beckett was. It looks like when other options are struck out it will be the last standing.

    EDIT Clarke is even closer. Those are the two serious contenders now.

    Yes, I'm very surprised by how close the second referendum idea came. A lot less Labour MPs opposed than expected, presumably.
    It's not a second referendum. It's a confirmatory referendum on the Deal. Remain wouldn't be on the ballot paper.
    I believe Remain and Revoke Art 50 would be the default alternative based on Kyle's statements and he drafted Beckett
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    If Bercow gets any redder in the face, they are going to need to bring in an ambulance - that is a stroke waiting to happen
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal


    Revoke did even better than I expected there.

    Just make Ken Clarke PM for christ's sake.
    That’s the true influence of the petition.

    It’s jacked it up. If it had been scored two weeks ago beforehand it’d have got well under 100 votes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    _Anazina_ said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal




    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
    Indeed. The indicative vote round one has done its job. Usual overreaction bullshit on PB.
    From someone who obsessively spouts pure unmitigated hatred about Laura K whenever she is mentioned no matter how trivially I don't think you are in any position to get on a high horse about people responding with instant, emotive reactions to something actually important.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    Point and laugh at our MPs.

    Twats.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Is Clarke’s option the customs union or a customs union . If it’s a customs union it’s shit
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    So even for the biggest number of votes cast, there were still 60+ abstentions?

    That’s the first lot I would throw out of parliament.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,811
    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal




    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
    Yes, both more popular than the government's shit deal.
    Barely, given the number who have since switched to it since MV2 and those who have already proven willing to vote for it.
    But none of the government were allowed to vote for any of the options today, I think.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Given Parliament has rejected all these options tonight and given Bercow's insistence on not bringing back what's rejected, what's the point of Monday?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    kjohnw said:

    Is Clarke’s option the customs union or a customs union . If it’s a customs union it’s shit

    "The"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Endillion said:

    Awful lot of overreacting going on, considering everyone knew all options were going to fail first time round.

    Some predictions in the commentariat had single options narrowly passing.

    Regardless, it is one thing to be very sure all options would fail first time around and another thing entirely to actually see it occur. I don't think it unfair for people to have a faint hope that MPs who have been whinging endlessly about Brexit might actually be a little more decisive than this.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    sarissa said:

    So even for the biggest number of votes cast, there were still 60+ abstentions?

    That’s the first lot I would throw out of parliament.

    Many on the government payroll?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    edited March 2019

    IanB2 said:

    MPs Indicative Votes (for v against):

    B - (Baron: No deal) 160 v 400
    D - (Boles: CM2) 188 v 283
    H - (Eustace: EFTA+EEA) 65 v 377
    J - (Clarke: WA+CU) 264 v 272
    K - (Corbyn: Labour deal) 237 v 307
    L - (Cherry: Revoke to avoid no deal) 184 v 293
    M - (Beckett: WA+referendum) 268 v 295
    O - (Fysh: Malthouse B ) 139 v 422

    All NO

    AV on Monday?!

    The 160 for No Deal is quite remarkable.
    Not really, at least 40% of the country backs No Deal in most polls, 160/650 MPs for No Deal is not even 30% of the Commons. So MPs are significantly less supportive of No Deal than voters as a whole
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133

    Given Parliament has rejected all these options tonight and given Bercow's insistence on not bringing back what's rejected, what's the point of Monday?

    Bercows rules are fluid....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal

    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
    Yes, both more popular than the government's shit deal.
    Barely, given the number who have since switched to it since MV2 and those who have already proven willing to vote for it.
    But none of the government were allowed to vote for any of the options today, I think.
    Which is why I said barely - they might be more popular if that had happened, but not by a great deal I think.

    And strictly speaking all of them were allowed to vote for any of the options - many people have resigned in order to do what they want.

  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    Given Parliament has rejected all these options tonight and given Bercow's insistence on not bringing back what's rejected, what's the point of Monday?

    It is not just tonight that most of them have been rejected - most of them have been rejected in other votes prior to today.

    But Bercow is choosing to ignore the rules on those he is seeking to enforce on the MV issue
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    kle4 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal




    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
    Indeed. The indicative vote round one has done its job. Usual overreaction bullshit on PB.
    From someone who obsessively spouts pure unmitigated hatred about Laura K whenever she is mentioned no matter how trivially I don't think you are in any position to get on a high horse about people responding with instant, emotive reactions to something actually important.
    ...says @kle4 in a measured response :smile:
  • So. May's Deal still not in order to be voted on again, and would be defeated again. And all of the alternatives - most of which were a problem for the EU - have been rejected most of them substantially.

    So, it remains Revoke or No Deal. May announcing that she's off- does that increase or decrease the prospects of May revoking in the final hour before we crash out?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    GIN1138 said:

    isam said:

    The blame for this ridiculous situation lies with whoever decided the HofC got a vote on the PMs deal

    Wasn't that Grieve? (But I bet Letwins prints are on it too)
    Not sure, but whoever it was should hang their head in shame
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Parliament has failed to provide an answer.
    The Executive cannot get its deal through.
    The public do not want to have another say.

    Let’s just ask the Queen to throw a coin.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    kjohnw said:

    Is Clarke’s option the customs union or a customs union . If it’s a customs union it’s shit

    The only way it can be “the”’customs union is Remain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    Tom Bradby on ITV news headlines 'MPs have rejected all Brexit options, suggesting we are now in a position of complete chaos'
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Given Parliament has rejected all these options tonight and given Bercow's insistence on not bringing back what's rejected, what's the point of Monday?

    Bercows rules are fluid....
    I think this is a different type of vote.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    So. May's Deal still not in order to be voted on again, and would be defeated again. And all of the alternatives - most of which were a problem for the EU - have been rejected most of them substantially.

    So, it remains Revoke or No Deal. May announcing that she's off- does that increase or decrease the prospects of May revoking in the final hour before we crash out?

    Revoke has been rejected also.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    Can't May now just get on a plane to Brussels and sign the bloody deal? The HoC is too broken to even ask it the time of day. With a fucking great clock over all their heads.....
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Seriously like seriously, every single one even with cabinet abstaining....the hoc again showing they are brilliant at knowing what they don't want, and fucking useless at showing what it does want.

    "fucking useless", but we knew that already
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Only option is now a referendum. GE allows Corbyn into power. Calamity.

    May's Deal versus Remain. Then an end, Please.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    Oh FFS, these people need thrown out of office en masse. All of them. Start again.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    So. May's Deal still not in order to be voted on again, and would be defeated again. And all of the alternatives - most of which were a problem for the EU - have been rejected most of them substantially.

    So, it remains Revoke or No Deal. May announcing that she's off- does that increase or decrease the prospects of May revoking in the final hour before we crash out?

    Revoke and No Deal were both heavily defeated, the path of least resistance is indefinite extensions.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    If nothing comes out of MV3 Thurs/Fri, or the second stage of the indicative votes on Monday, then bring on the general election.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    IanB2 said:

    MPs Indicative Votes (for v against):

    B - (Baron: No deal) 160 v 400
    D - (Boles: CM2) 188 v 283
    H - (Eustace: EFTA+EEA) 65 v 377
    J - (Clarke: WA+CU) 264 v 272
    K - (Corbyn: Labour deal) 237 v 307
    L - (Cherry: Revoke to avoid no deal) 184 v 293
    M - (Beckett: WA+referendum) 268 v 295
    O - (Fysh: Malthouse B ) 139 v 422

    All NO

    AV on Monday?!

    The 160 for No Deal is quite remarkable.
    That's a whole mess of We're Not Compromising......
    A bunch of crackpots who know their doctrine has zero chance of carrying
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914

    Given Parliament has rejected all these options tonight and given Bercow's insistence on not bringing back what's rejected, what's the point of Monday?

    Hopefully Monday is when the Army seize control.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Given Parliament has rejected all these options tonight and given Bercow's insistence on not bringing back what's rejected, what's the point of Monday?

    Haven't they explicitly given permission for these to be brought back?

    Although it does rather illustrate why the circumstances we find ourselves in justify an exception to the usual rule about not bringing things back if rejected preciously. If it is ok for these it is ok for others.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622

    So. May's Deal still not in order to be voted on again, and would be defeated again. And all of the alternatives - most of which were a problem for the EU - have been rejected most of them substantially.

    So, it remains Revoke or No Deal. May announcing that she's off- does that increase or decrease the prospects of May revoking in the final hour before we crash out?

    Nah. She'll rather hand Boris the No Deal Brexit as she departs.

    "Your shit sandwich buffet, Prime Minister...."
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    How about Parliament has a vote on legalising Abortion and same-sex marriage in Northern Ireland ?

    I think there might be a majority for that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    isam said:

    The blame for this ridiculous situation lies with whoever decided the HofC got a vote on the PMs deal

    Wasn't that Grieve? (But I bet Letwins prints are on it too)
    Not sure, but whoever it was should hang their head in shame
    On the contrary, I think MPs are doing a grand job of representing the opinion of the country.

    And Grieve is a legal genius.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    If nothing comes out of MV3 Thurs/Fri, or the second stage of the indicative votes on Monday, then bring on the general election.

    Perhaps we should just suspend Parliament completely for a couple of years. It isn't doing us any good right now

    Belgium managed without a government for a long period not so long ago - I am up for giving it a try
This discussion has been closed.