Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The danger for TMay is that in wooing ERG hardliners she might

135678

Comments

  • Options
    As I said, donkeys led by donkeys.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Nothing has changed.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    GE now.....
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    OK. Out of the loop here. What exactly has happened to the results of Brex Factor?

    Danny Dyer was the prophet of all this and Nothing Has Changed!

    https://youtu.be/MpGcxgnQfkI
    Never understood why people find that so compelling.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,165
    Letwin confirms the Commons will reconsider the matter on Monday based on preferences but urges MPs to vote for the Deal before then
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    What was the fucking point of all that?

    To allow Letwin to extend his control over more days.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Well this experiment has utterly fucking failed.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,094
    Sack the lot of them.
  • Options

    As I said, donkeys led by donkeys.

    That is unkind to donkeys
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446
    Meaningless Votes!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    So much for the common market 2.0 was going to dead popular...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,165
    edited March 2019
    Also only permanent Customs Union plus Deal and EUref2 got more votes than May's Deal did in MV2
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623

    Well this experiment has utterly fucking failed.

    It was always intended as an experiment in two parts.
  • Options
    SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Jesus fucking Christ. Blow up parliament and start again. Elect some lemurs. Earthworms. A bunch of daffodils could form the Cabinet. They couldn't do worse.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    Perhaps may telling cabinet to abstain was the one bit of good tactics she has come up with.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,825

    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    Oh FFS. Let's just revoke the shit out of this shit.

    ENOUGH.

    5.9 million now, go on, you know that you want to...

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
    How many times have you signed Foxy?
    Just the once. Though Mrs Foxy, Fox Jr and his young lady have signed too.

  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited March 2019
    That’s more informative than I expected. Note how close Beckett was. It looks like when other options are struck out it will be the last standing.

    EDIT Clarke is even closer. Those are the two serious contenders now.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,336
    IanB2 said:

    MPs Indicative Votes (for v against):

    B - (Baron: No deal) 160 v 400
    D - (Boles: CM2) 188 v 283
    H - (Eustace: EFTA+EEA) 65 v 377
    J - (Clarke: WA+CU) 264 v 272
    K - (Corbyn: Labour deal) 237 v 307
    L - (Cherry: Revoke to avoid no deal) 184 v 293
    M - (Beckett: WA+referendum) 268 v 295
    O - (Fysh: Malthouse B ) 139 v 422

    All NO

    AV on Monday?!

    The 160 for No Deal is quite remarkable.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,444
    Sounds like MV3 is coming. Sometime.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,792
    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal




    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
  • Options
    SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    HYUFD said:

    Letwin confirms the Commons will reconsider the matter on Monday based on preferences but urges MPs to vote for the Deal before then

    That is the only way. Tell MPs that the most preferred option will win. Doesn't need a majority. Just needs to be the most popular. Make them sweat and starve until they decide.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    dr_spyn said:
    Ken Clarke's option came closest to victory. It's not to the Conservative Party's credit that he never became their leader.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,166
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal




    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
    Yes, both more popular than the government's shit deal.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,444

    That’s more informative than I expected. Note how close Beckett was. It looks like when other options are struck out it will be the last standing.



    The answer is WA plus CU plus a confirmatory referendum

    Whether MPs will get there on Monday remains to be seen
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    That’s more informative than I expected. Note how close Beckett was. It looks like when other options are struck out it will be the last standing.

    EDIT Clarke is even closer. Those are the two serious contenders now.

    Yes, I'm very surprised by how close the second referendum idea came. A lot less Labour MPs opposed than expected, presumably.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,880
    edited March 2019
    From a connection of mine who actually works for the EU:

    “The sight of all those MPs, their faces collapsed into their chins, poring over their ballot papers in the hope that Bercow would call bingo, before discovering that they had failed to vote for anything at all, was the funniest thing ever. Like a bunch of befuddled OAPs.”
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal




    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
    Yes, both more popular than the government's shit deal.
    Barely, given the number who have since switched to it since MV2 and those who have already proven willing to vote for it.
  • Options
    Bercow has lost it.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,825
    IanB2 said:

    Sounds like MV3 is coming. Sometime.

    I don't think the Deal could survive a third defeat.
  • Options
    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The DUP object to MV3 on a point of principle, unlike Boris

    Boris is such a monumental blob of narcissistic, corrupted and revolting humanity that he is not fit to clean my dog's anus with his tongue....he is the one who is singularly waiting for a special place in hell. Compared to him Chris Chope is a veritable fine fella.
    Heh.
    Reading people like Iris Murdoch or E. M. Forster has made me think that one of the advantages of being a fiction writer might be the option to torment, knock off, or otherwise punish stylised versions of people one dislikes. BJ offers much scope for that I think.
  • Options
    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    dr_spyn said:
    Ken Clarke's option came closest to victory. It's not to the Conservative Party's credit that he never became their leader.
    Wasn’t this all expected? The point is we can rule out those that were miles off and concentrate on the ones that were close. Ken and Beckett
  • Options

    Couldn't they have got Newcastle Central to count the MPs votes? - would save a lengthy delay.

    You mean Sunderland? then again it is a European ballot . . .
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,853

    That’s more informative than I expected. Note how close Beckett was. It looks like when other options are struck out it will be the last standing.

    EDIT Clarke is even closer. Those are the two serious contenders now.

    I like your optimism. But, fuck a doodle doo.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal




    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
    Yes, both more popular than the government's shit deal.
    Er, it's the EU's shit deal :lol:
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    The blame for this ridiculous situation lies with whoever decided the HofC got a vote on the PMs deal
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    The way things are going we'll end up with a deal v remain referendum where both deal and referendum got beaten in multiple votes
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,015

    IanB2 said:

    MPs Indicative Votes (for v against):

    B - (Baron: No deal) 160 v 400
    D - (Boles: CM2) 188 v 283
    H - (Eustace: EFTA+EEA) 65 v 377
    J - (Clarke: WA+CU) 264 v 272
    K - (Corbyn: Labour deal) 237 v 307
    L - (Cherry: Revoke to avoid no deal) 184 v 293
    M - (Beckett: WA+referendum) 268 v 295
    O - (Fysh: Malthouse B ) 139 v 422

    All NO

    AV on Monday?!

    The 160 for No Deal is quite remarkable.
    As is the 184 for straight Revoke. Like getting compromise between an antelope and a starving lion.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    If there was some way of kicking out every current MP forever, I'd support that.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Honestly what was the fucking point of that.
  • Options
    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Awful lot of overreacting going on, considering everyone knew all options were going to fail first time round.
  • Options
    SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Have British politicians ever been held in such contempt as they are right now?

    At least in the catastrophe of the Iraq War you could accept that Blair argued his case passionately and eloquently, and his opponents- like Robin Cook - were equally articulate and plausible (and, it turned out, much wiser than Blair).

    There is no one on any side of this argument who is emerging with credit, certainly not the turncoat Tiggers, certainly not the ultra-Brexiteers, and certainly not Corbyn's Labour. Stupid mediocrity and desperate careerism prevail throughout.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    Arlene Foster, the leader of the DUP, says that her party did want to get a deal.

    "But we feel, very fundamentally, that the backstop in that withdrawal agreement makes it impossible for us to sign up to the withdrawal agreement," she said.

    "And you know what, I regret that because we wanted to get a deal, a deal that worked for the whole of the Union


    What a sanctimonious pile of drivel.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    Silly bloody Letwin strikes again. :D
  • Options
    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal




    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
    Indeed. The indicative vote round one has done its job. Usual overreaction bullshit on PB.
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    Sounds like MV3 is coming. Sometime.

    Over Bercow's dead body. (not literally of course).
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Soubry really is a piece of work...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,165
    _Anazina_ said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Ken Clarke's option came closest to victory. It's not to the Conservative Party's credit that he never became their leader.
    Wasn’t this all expected? The point is we can rule out those that were miles off and concentrate on the ones that were close. Ken and Beckett
    The Telegraph reported last Saturday May could shift to her Deal plus permanent Customs Union if MV3 fails, so Clarke's being closest means it could be the end result of Brexit
  • Options
    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    IanB2 said:

    MPs Indicative Votes (for v against):

    B - (Baron: No deal) 160 v 400
    D - (Boles: CM2) 188 v 283
    H - (Eustace: EFTA+EEA) 65 v 377
    J - (Clarke: WA+CU) 264 v 272
    K - (Corbyn: Labour deal) 237 v 307
    L - (Cherry: Revoke to avoid no deal) 184 v 293
    M - (Beckett: WA+referendum) 268 v 295
    O - (Fysh: Malthouse B ) 139 v 422

    All NO

    AV on Monday?!

    The 160 for No Deal is quite remarkable.

    No deal got smashed to be honest.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    isam said:

    The blame for this ridiculous situation lies with whoever decided the HofC got a vote on the PMs deal

    Wasn't that Grieve? (But I bet Letwins prints are on it too)
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648
    IanB2 said:

    That’s more informative than I expected. Note how close Beckett was. It looks like when other options are struck out it will be the last standing.



    The answer is WA plus CU plus a confirmatory referendum

    Whether MPs will get there on Monday remains to be seen
    That does seem to be where this is going.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,166

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal




    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
    Yes, both more popular than the government's shit deal.
    Er, it's the EU's shit deal :lol:
    It's the shit deal negotiated between the government and the EU whose parameters of shitness were dictated mainly by the government's shit red lines. But at least we can agree it's shit.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    And some MPs have the gall to complaint that May is ignoring them or treating them badly. She may well have been doing so, she deserves much criticisim indeed, but so many of those MPs are just trying to distract from the fact none of them have a clue and all are still insisting on the same thing May is - do what I say.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,880
    It is difficult to be sure, but one assumes an MV3 would have attracted votes in the 260s.

    On those grounds, can we just restrict the vote to May’s Deal v May’s Deal + Customs Union, and then have a further vote pls on whether or not to add a confirmatory referendum?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,816

    Couldn't they have got Newcastle Central to count the MPs votes? - would save a lengthy delay.

    You mean Sunderland? then again it is a European ballot . . .
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/08/newcastle-first-declare-60-minutes-labour-holds-seat/
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    IanB2 said:

    MPs Indicative Votes (for v against):

    B - (Baron: No deal) 160 v 400
    D - (Boles: CM2) 188 v 283
    H - (Eustace: EFTA+EEA) 65 v 377
    J - (Clarke: WA+CU) 264 v 272
    K - (Corbyn: Labour deal) 237 v 307
    L - (Cherry: Revoke to avoid no deal) 184 v 293
    M - (Beckett: WA+referendum) 268 v 295
    O - (Fysh: Malthouse B ) 139 v 422

    All NO

    AV on Monday?!

    The 160 for No Deal is quite remarkable.
    That's a whole mess of We're Not Compromising......
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,165
    May at least finally gets a chance to be smug tonight, she deserves it!
  • Options
    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Well this experiment has utterly fucking failed.

    It was always intended as an experiment in two parts.

    Exactly.
  • Options
    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited March 2019
    Danny565 said:

    That’s more informative than I expected. Note how close Beckett was. It looks like when other options are struck out it will be the last standing.

    EDIT Clarke is even closer. Those are the two serious contenders now.

    Yes, I'm very surprised by how close the second referendum idea came. A lot less Labour MPs opposed than expected, presumably.
    It's not a second referendum. It's a confirmatory referendum on the Deal. Remain wouldn't be on the ballot paper.
  • Options
    dotsdots Posts: 615
    edited March 2019
    Any data if DUP and TIG voted as blocks on indicative votes, and how assorted independents voted? If things come to tight crunch votes in future there could be some indication there.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    SeanT said:

    Have British politicians ever been held in such contempt as they are right now?

    At least in the catastrophe of the Iraq War you could accept that Blair argued his case passionately and eloquently, and his opponents- like Robin Cook - were equally articulate and plausible (and, it turned out, much wiser than Blair).

    There is no one on any side of this argument who is emerging with credit, certainly not the turncoat Tiggers, certainly not the ultra-Brexiteers, and certainly not Corbyn's Labour. Stupid mediocrity and desperate careerism prevail throughout.

    I think May has emerged with credit. I certainly like her more now than I did 2 years ago
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,165
    edited March 2019
    Endillion said:

    Danny565 said:

    That’s more informative than I expected. Note how close Beckett was. It looks like when other options are struck out it will be the last standing.

    EDIT Clarke is even closer. Those are the two serious contenders now.

    Yes, I'm very surprised by how close the second referendum idea came. A lot less Labour MPs opposed than expected, presumably.
    It's not a second referendum. It's a confirmatory referendum on the Deal. Remain wouldn't be on the ballot paper.
    I believe Remain and Revoke Art 50 would be the default alternative based on Kyle's statements and he drafted Beckett
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    If Bercow gets any redder in the face, they are going to need to bring in an ambulance - that is a stroke waiting to happen
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal


    Revoke did even better than I expected there.

    Just make Ken Clarke PM for christ's sake.
    That’s the true influence of the petition.

    It’s jacked it up. If it had been scored two weeks ago beforehand it’d have got well under 100 votes.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    _Anazina_ said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal




    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
    Indeed. The indicative vote round one has done its job. Usual overreaction bullshit on PB.
    From someone who obsessively spouts pure unmitigated hatred about Laura K whenever she is mentioned no matter how trivially I don't think you are in any position to get on a high horse about people responding with instant, emotive reactions to something actually important.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Point and laugh at our MPs.

    Twats.
  • Options
    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Is Clarke’s option the customs union or a customs union . If it’s a customs union it’s shit
  • Options
    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,800
    So even for the biggest number of votes cast, there were still 60+ abstentions?

    That’s the first lot I would throw out of parliament.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,166
    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal




    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
    Yes, both more popular than the government's shit deal.
    Barely, given the number who have since switched to it since MV2 and those who have already proven willing to vote for it.
    But none of the government were allowed to vote for any of the options today, I think.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Given Parliament has rejected all these options tonight and given Bercow's insistence on not bringing back what's rejected, what's the point of Monday?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    kjohnw said:

    Is Clarke’s option the customs union or a customs union . If it’s a customs union it’s shit

    "The"
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    Endillion said:

    Awful lot of overreacting going on, considering everyone knew all options were going to fail first time round.

    Some predictions in the commentariat had single options narrowly passing.

    Regardless, it is one thing to be very sure all options would fail first time around and another thing entirely to actually see it occur. I don't think it unfair for people to have a faint hope that MPs who have been whinging endlessly about Brexit might actually be a little more decisive than this.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,816
    sarissa said:

    So even for the biggest number of votes cast, there were still 60+ abstentions?

    That’s the first lot I would throw out of parliament.

    Many on the government payroll?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,165
    edited March 2019

    IanB2 said:

    MPs Indicative Votes (for v against):

    B - (Baron: No deal) 160 v 400
    D - (Boles: CM2) 188 v 283
    H - (Eustace: EFTA+EEA) 65 v 377
    J - (Clarke: WA+CU) 264 v 272
    K - (Corbyn: Labour deal) 237 v 307
    L - (Cherry: Revoke to avoid no deal) 184 v 293
    M - (Beckett: WA+referendum) 268 v 295
    O - (Fysh: Malthouse B ) 139 v 422

    All NO

    AV on Monday?!

    The 160 for No Deal is quite remarkable.
    Not really, at least 40% of the country backs No Deal in most polls, 160/650 MPs for No Deal is not even 30% of the Commons. So MPs are significantly less supportive of No Deal than voters as a whole
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292

    Given Parliament has rejected all these options tonight and given Bercow's insistence on not bringing back what's rejected, what's the point of Monday?

    Bercows rules are fluid....
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal

    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
    Yes, both more popular than the government's shit deal.
    Barely, given the number who have since switched to it since MV2 and those who have already proven willing to vote for it.
    But none of the government were allowed to vote for any of the options today, I think.
    Which is why I said barely - they might be more popular if that had happened, but not by a great deal I think.

    And strictly speaking all of them were allowed to vote for any of the options - many people have resigned in order to do what they want.

  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    Given Parliament has rejected all these options tonight and given Bercow's insistence on not bringing back what's rejected, what's the point of Monday?

    It is not just tonight that most of them have been rejected - most of them have been rejected in other votes prior to today.

    But Bercow is choosing to ignore the rules on those he is seeking to enforce on the MV issue
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,816
    kle4 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indicative Votes Results

    Deal plus Customs Union (Clarke) Yes 264 Noes 272

    Corbyn Brexit Yes 237 Noes 307

    Common Market 2.0 SM+CU (Boles) Yes 188 Noes 283

    Deal plus EEA/SM (Eustice) Yes 65 Noes 377

    Malthouse Compromise Yes 139 Noes 422

    No Deal (Baron) Yes 160 Noes 400

    Referendum on the Deal (Beckett) Yes 268 Noes 295

    Revoke Article 50 (SNP) Yes 184 Noes 293


    So Commons votes down everything on first round but May Deal + permanent Customs Union closest and loses by just 8

    Also revoke Article 50 gets more votes than No Deal




    "Deal + CU" and "Deal or Remain decided by referendum" look like the two potentially viable options.
    Indeed. The indicative vote round one has done its job. Usual overreaction bullshit on PB.
    From someone who obsessively spouts pure unmitigated hatred about Laura K whenever she is mentioned no matter how trivially I don't think you are in any position to get on a high horse about people responding with instant, emotive reactions to something actually important.
    ...says @kle4 in a measured response :smile:
  • Options
    So. May's Deal still not in order to be voted on again, and would be defeated again. And all of the alternatives - most of which were a problem for the EU - have been rejected most of them substantially.

    So, it remains Revoke or No Deal. May announcing that she's off- does that increase or decrease the prospects of May revoking in the final hour before we crash out?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    GIN1138 said:

    isam said:

    The blame for this ridiculous situation lies with whoever decided the HofC got a vote on the PMs deal

    Wasn't that Grieve? (But I bet Letwins prints are on it too)
    Not sure, but whoever it was should hang their head in shame
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,880
    Parliament has failed to provide an answer.
    The Executive cannot get its deal through.
    The public do not want to have another say.

    Let’s just ask the Queen to throw a coin.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    kjohnw said:

    Is Clarke’s option the customs union or a customs union . If it’s a customs union it’s shit

    The only way it can be “the”’customs union is Remain.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,165
    Tom Bradby on ITV news headlines 'MPs have rejected all Brexit options, suggesting we are now in a position of complete chaos'
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,427

    Given Parliament has rejected all these options tonight and given Bercow's insistence on not bringing back what's rejected, what's the point of Monday?

    Bercows rules are fluid....
    I think this is a different type of vote.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    So. May's Deal still not in order to be voted on again, and would be defeated again. And all of the alternatives - most of which were a problem for the EU - have been rejected most of them substantially.

    So, it remains Revoke or No Deal. May announcing that she's off- does that increase or decrease the prospects of May revoking in the final hour before we crash out?

    Revoke has been rejected also.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Can't May now just get on a plane to Brussels and sign the bloody deal? The HoC is too broken to even ask it the time of day. With a fucking great clock over all their heads.....
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Seriously like seriously, every single one even with cabinet abstaining....the hoc again showing they are brilliant at knowing what they don't want, and fucking useless at showing what it does want.

    "fucking useless", but we knew that already
  • Options
    SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Only option is now a referendum. GE allows Corbyn into power. Calamity.

    May's Deal versus Remain. Then an end, Please.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,392
    Oh FFS, these people need thrown out of office en masse. All of them. Start again.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    So. May's Deal still not in order to be voted on again, and would be defeated again. And all of the alternatives - most of which were a problem for the EU - have been rejected most of them substantially.

    So, it remains Revoke or No Deal. May announcing that she's off- does that increase or decrease the prospects of May revoking in the final hour before we crash out?

    Revoke and No Deal were both heavily defeated, the path of least resistance is indefinite extensions.
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    If nothing comes out of MV3 Thurs/Fri, or the second stage of the indicative votes on Monday, then bring on the general election.
  • Options
    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    IanB2 said:

    MPs Indicative Votes (for v against):

    B - (Baron: No deal) 160 v 400
    D - (Boles: CM2) 188 v 283
    H - (Eustace: EFTA+EEA) 65 v 377
    J - (Clarke: WA+CU) 264 v 272
    K - (Corbyn: Labour deal) 237 v 307
    L - (Cherry: Revoke to avoid no deal) 184 v 293
    M - (Beckett: WA+referendum) 268 v 295
    O - (Fysh: Malthouse B ) 139 v 422

    All NO

    AV on Monday?!

    The 160 for No Deal is quite remarkable.
    That's a whole mess of We're Not Compromising......
    A bunch of crackpots who know their doctrine has zero chance of carrying
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    Given Parliament has rejected all these options tonight and given Bercow's insistence on not bringing back what's rejected, what's the point of Monday?

    Hopefully Monday is when the Army seize control.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    Given Parliament has rejected all these options tonight and given Bercow's insistence on not bringing back what's rejected, what's the point of Monday?

    Haven't they explicitly given permission for these to be brought back?

    Although it does rather illustrate why the circumstances we find ourselves in justify an exception to the usual rule about not bringing things back if rejected preciously. If it is ok for these it is ok for others.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    So. May's Deal still not in order to be voted on again, and would be defeated again. And all of the alternatives - most of which were a problem for the EU - have been rejected most of them substantially.

    So, it remains Revoke or No Deal. May announcing that she's off- does that increase or decrease the prospects of May revoking in the final hour before we crash out?

    Nah. She'll rather hand Boris the No Deal Brexit as she departs.

    "Your shit sandwich buffet, Prime Minister...."
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,133
    How about Parliament has a vote on legalising Abortion and same-sex marriage in Northern Ireland ?

    I think there might be a majority for that.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,825
    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    isam said:

    The blame for this ridiculous situation lies with whoever decided the HofC got a vote on the PMs deal

    Wasn't that Grieve? (But I bet Letwins prints are on it too)
    Not sure, but whoever it was should hang their head in shame
    On the contrary, I think MPs are doing a grand job of representing the opinion of the country.

    And Grieve is a legal genius.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    If nothing comes out of MV3 Thurs/Fri, or the second stage of the indicative votes on Monday, then bring on the general election.

    Perhaps we should just suspend Parliament completely for a couple of years. It isn't doing us any good right now

    Belgium managed without a government for a long period not so long ago - I am up for giving it a try
This discussion has been closed.