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  • On the assumption most of ERG will vote for TM deal tomorrow plus the conservatives who have backed it previously and some labour mps her deal may emerge tomorrow as the way forward.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    Pulpstar said:

    So how would everyone fill out their indicitive ballots ?

    6 options I can see that have some sort of support in the house:

    Revoke
    {2nd referendum/People's vote/May's deal subject to ratification by the public} <- All essentially identical
    Common Market 2.0
    May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
    May's deal
    No Deal

    I'd possibly go

    1) Common Market 2.0
    2) May's deal
    3) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
    4) 2nd Ref
    5) No deal
    6) Revocation

    There's a clear enough dividing line between the top 3 and bottom 3 options for me.</p>

    For me:-

    1. May's dea
    2. May's deal plus CU
    3. Common Market 2
    4. No Deal
    5. Referendum
    6. No Deal
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    Dura_Ace said:

    Cyclefree said:

    There are, though, three good things about Brexit.

    1. It has shown us in vivid Technicolour how utterly stupid and pig-ignorant many of our MPs are.
    2. Katya Adler.
    3. All those pictures of Donald Tusk when younger showing what a hottie he was.

    Absolutely agree on 1 and 2

    Cannot comment on Tusk
    L: Young Rees-Mogg about to flagellate himself before vespers.
    R: Young Tusk protesting against Soviet totalitarianism on the streets of Gdansk.


    That haunted and distanced photo of Rees-Mogg suddenly makes me feel as if I understand something a bit better.
    The pre-lunch vodka intake of hairdressers in the Windsor and Eton area? Even if nanny cut JRM's hair, how on earth does he end up with a fringe two inches lower on one side?
    Jacob Rees-Mogg is 5 years younger than me. Is he really wearing a fecking monocle? That would have been mid-eighties. People actually want to follow this out of touch twit.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    FF43 said:

    More anecdota:

    Just back from a 12 day P&O cruise to the Canaries. I'd guess the demographic of the ship (average age 60+, mainly middle class, mostly from small towns across the UK) was 75% leave. We always like to share tables at in the restaurants and meet a lot of interesting (and some boring) people through the cruise.

    Brexit has never got a mention on previous cruises but this time it was raised quite often, usually by one person on the table saying something like: "I can't understand why we just can't leave - we did fine in 1970".

    What surprised me is that this was often met with embarrassed silence or mumblings. Also quite a few people saying things like: "It's such a mess", "We should just forget the whole thing", "I can't understand why we're bothering" (to which the rejoiner was "well you voted for it!")

    I am sure it's true that the vast majority outside our PB bubble are thoroughly fed up to the back teeth with Brexit. I think many just want it done or dropped and don't really care much which.

    As I say only anecdotal.

    People think the EU is something you can switch off and there are no consequences to doing so. Like the membership for the gym you never go to.
    Though of course they still want to be able to use the showers for free whenever they like.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    The Express headline has gone full fruitcake.

    It should have read "Diana's Assassins Have Stolen What's Left of Brexit."
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Pulpstar said:

    I really didn't like the way 2nd reffers were angling to get their option outside of the indicitive ballots. It's of the utmost substance and not simply a process issue, most dishonest. Sure, include May's deal subject to a 2nd vote in the indicitive votes but you can't just take whatever option emerges and produce another "subject to ratification by the public" hurdle for it.
    If it is Common Market 2.0, it is Common Market 2.0.

    It's a shame that May's deal (WA) followed by a GE isn't on the list as that seems the most sensible option to me.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Sean_F said:

    The Express headline has gone full fruitcake.

    It should have read "Diana's Assassins Have Stolen What's Left of Brexit."
    You're missing out something about house prices, pensions and the weather...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I really didn't like the way 2nd reffers were angling to get their option outside of the indicitive ballots. It's of the utmost substance and not simply a process issue, most dishonest. Sure, include May's deal subject to a 2nd vote in the indicitive votes but you can't just take whatever option emerges and produce another "subject to ratification by the public" hurdle for it.
    If it is Common Market 2.0, it is Common Market 2.0.

    It's a shame that May's deal (WA) followed by a GE isn't on the list as that seems the most sensible option to me.
    What should have happened right from the start
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    TudorRose said:



    Pulpstar said:

    If Letwin does go with some form of preference voting, it should be a requirement that a ballot ranks all of the available options, otherwise it is entirely invalidated. That would force everyone to either put it all on the public record or count themselves out of the process altogether.

    I suspect May would choose the latter

    Nonsense. If someone sticks up 1) No Deal for instance then you simply discard the ballot after the first round if it loses. Any voting system rewards those who make more preferences anyway.
    I don't see this at all. I genuinely don't believe this system can work. First, what about those who decide not to participate (I can see that 'no dealers' may well decide to do this)? Second, even having established some sort of 'pecking order' you can't force an MP to vote for the collective first choice to become legislation. For example, would the SNP be willing to vote for any collectively-agreed form of Brexit given their stated support for revocation? I just don't see it working (and that's before Corbyn/May get the whips to work).
    What did we do about those people who decided not to participate in the EU Ref?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    edited March 2019
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I really didn't like the way 2nd reffers were angling to get their option outside of the indicitive ballots. It's of the utmost substance and not simply a process issue, most dishonest. Sure, include May's deal subject to a 2nd vote in the indicitive votes but you can't just take whatever option emerges and produce another "subject to ratification by the public" hurdle for it.
    If it is Common Market 2.0, it is Common Market 2.0.

    It's a shame that May's deal (WA) followed by a GE isn't on the list as that seems the most sensible option to me.
    Very fair chance of a GE following any variant of leave (Except No deal) to be honest as they all must include the backstop so the DUP will probably stop supporting the Gov't.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    On the assumption most of ERG will vote for TM deal tomorrow plus the conservatives who have backed it previously and some labour mps her deal may emerge tomorrow as the way forward.

    I have to admire your optimism.

    If Brexit is blocked there is going to be a bloodbath at the local elections for the Conservatives. Particularly this year's batch.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Suspect the next discussions will be who takes the blame - but for the Con party does it really matter - the seats will be lost.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited March 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So how would everyone fill out their indicitive ballots ?

    6 options I can see that have some sort of support in the house:

    Revoke
    {2nd referendum/People's vote/May's deal subject to ratification by the public} <- All essentially identical
    Common Market 2.0
    May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
    May's deal
    No Deal

    I'd possibly go

    1) Common Market 2.0
    2) May's deal
    3) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
    4) 2nd Ref
    5) No deal
    6) Revocation

    There's a clear enough dividing line between the top 3 and bottom 3 options for me.</p>

    For me:-

    1. May's dea
    2. May's deal plus CU
    3. Common Market 2
    4. No Deal
    5. Referendum
    6. No Deal

    Congratulations - you spoilt your ballot paper.

    Edit I assume you meant 6. Revoke ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622

    FPT: Just had to comment on this great summary from Dura_Ace

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Been away for a few days. Anything happened?

    Prince Chas has stood around in Cuba like he's got a glass cock.
    Casino went full Beautiful Mind over the 2 million strong Revoke March.
    May has almost completed her transformation to her final form which the Miss Havisham of No. 10.
    Mueller was meh but Trump is still an ignorant piece of ochre coloured shit.
    Oliver Letlabourwin is apparently still a thing.
    Pete Buttigieg is almost certainly not going to be POTUS but you can still make money betting that he will.
    SeanT's Mrs is apparently turning into the wrong Mitford sister since she read some book about China.
    Corbo danced next to a statue of some old c**t who used to be on the telly in Morecambe.
    Brexit is proper LOL.

    Theresa May as Miss Haversham is quite brilliant. :lol:
    Check the Downing Street fire extinguishers.....
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    TudorRose said:



    Pulpstar said:

    If Letwin does go with some form of preference voting, it should be a requirement that a ballot ranks all of the available options, otherwise it is entirely invalidated. That would force everyone to either put it all on the public record or count themselves out of the process altogether.

    I suspect May would choose the latter

    Nonsense. If someone sticks up 1) No Deal for instance then you simply discard the ballot after the first round if it loses. Any voting system rewards those who make more preferences anyway.
    I don't see this at all. I genuinely don't believe this system can work. First, what about those who decide not to participate (I can see that 'no dealers' may well decide to do this)? Second, even having established some sort of 'pecking order' you can't force an MP to vote for the collective first choice to become legislation. For example, would the SNP be willing to vote for any collectively-agreed form of Brexit given their stated support for revocation? I just don't see it working (and that's before Corbyn/May get the whips to work).
    What did we do about those people who decided not to participate in the EU Ref?
    But MPs who don't participate in the indicative votes can still effectively veto legislation that they don't like later on in the process.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    FF43 said:

    More anecdota:

    Just back from a 12 day P&O cruise to the Canaries. I'd guess the demographic of the ship (average age 60+, mainly middle class, mostly from small towns across the UK) was 75% leave. We always like to share tables at in the restaurants and meet a lot of interesting (and some boring) people through the cruise.

    Brexit has never got a mention on previous cruises but this time it was raised quite often, usually by one person on the table saying something like: "I can't understand why we just can't leave - we did fine in 1970".

    What surprised me is that this was often met with embarrassed silence or mumblings. Also quite a few people saying things like: "It's such a mess", "We should just forget the whole thing", "I can't understand why we're bothering" (to which the rejoiner was "well you voted for it!")

    I am sure it's true that the vast majority outside our PB bubble are thoroughly fed up to the back teeth with Brexit. I think many just want it done or dropped and don't really care much which.

    As I say only anecdotal.

    People think the EU is something you can switch off and there are no consequences to doing so. Like the membership for the gym you never go to.
    Though of course they still want to be able to use the showers for free whenever they like.
    I am sure they haven't thought it through like that. The EU isn't like gym membership. We know that; they don't. It is a lack of interest rather than stupidity
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I really didn't like the way 2nd reffers were angling to get their option outside of the indicitive ballots. It's of the utmost substance and not simply a process issue, most dishonest. Sure, include May's deal subject to a 2nd vote in the indicitive votes but you can't just take whatever option emerges and produce another "subject to ratification by the public" hurdle for it.
    If it is Common Market 2.0, it is Common Market 2.0.

    It's a shame that May's deal (WA) followed by a GE isn't on the list as that seems the most sensible option to me.
    Very fair chance of a GE following any variant of leave (Except No deal) to be honest as they all must include the backstop so the DUP will probably stop supporting the Gov't.
    Indeed - any Conservative MP voting for any of the options bar no deal is voting for a GE...

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Sean_F said:

    The Express headline has gone full fruitcake.

    It should have read "Diana's Assassins Have Stolen What's Left of Brexit."
    You're missing out something about house prices, pensions and the weather...
    The weather is there (top left). They only talk about house prices when they are going up.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    On the assumption most of ERG will vote for TM deal tomorrow plus the conservatives who have backed it previously and some labour mps her deal may emerge tomorrow as the way forward.

    It could be May's F******s M****t.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Sean_F said:

    The self-awareness award of the day goes to Steve Baker.

    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1110445379428990977

    Need to see the poll before commenting
    I think it was a Com Res poll from last week.

    There's a distinction between those MP's who are trying to produce a form of Brexit (Boles, Letwin) and those who are trying to prevent Brexit (Cooper, Grieve, Benn) but this will probably not be apparent to the public.
    I am not convinced of the wisdom of now remaining, but I do wish people would stop suggesting that no MP should offer it as a logical alternative. Based upon the catastrophic way it has been handled it is a perfectly reasonable thing for an MP to say that in all conscience they cannot say it is in the interests of their constituents and the country. And good for them for holding that position. If a referendum voted for capital punishment it is ridiculous to suggest all MPs should fall in behind it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    edited March 2019

    FPT @rcs1000

    rcs1000 said:

    Bah humbug, it leaves us permanently tied into the CU unless or until the EU decides its happy for us to leave.

    It leaves the UK in broadly the same position as Switzerland, only without the fees or the freedom of movement.

    How long before Switzerland and Norway start demanding that they pay our level of fees? Or that they can leave FoM?

    The backstop is at least as uncomfortable for the EU as for us. *And* we get internnational mediation if we think they aren't keeping up with their treaty obligations to implement a technical solution.

    Also: you've spoken on the board about having voted Remain. And yet today you've said you voted Leave. Which one is it?
    I missed you asking me this question yesterday so just to set the record straight I have spoken about having previously supported Remain. Which I did, until Cameron finished his renegotiations. I argued pro-Remain for years on this site getting into a number of disagreements with @iSam and @Richard_Tyndall in particular. I switched from Remain to Leave during the campaign and I was one of the few people on this forum to really struggle determining how to vote during the early part of the campaign and I ended up deciding Leave and said on this forum that I had switched from Remain to Leave before voting.

    In part due to this forum. It was some excellent arguments from @Richard_Tyndall and @Casino_Royale plus a very persuasive article I read at the start of the campaign by Michael Gove that made me reconsider my reasons for supporting Remain. I know not many people actually change their minds on any site like this, but I did.

    Hope that clears that up, I wouldn't want you to think I'm being disingenuous.
    I made exactly the opposite movement during the campaign, in part because of the 'arguments' of the people you mention! ;)

    Oh, and welcome back iSam.

    Edit: and with hindsight, subsequent events have only firmed up my view. I darsay you feel the same way ...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited March 2019
    Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So how would everyone fill out their indicitive ballots ?

    6 options I can see that have some sort of support in the house:

    Revoke
    {2nd referendum/People's vote/May's deal subject to ratification by the public} <- All essentially identical
    Common Market 2.0
    May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
    May's deal
    No Deal

    I'd possibly go

    1) Common Market 2.0
    2) May's deal
    3) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
    4) 2nd Ref
    5) No deal
    6) Revocation

    There's a clear enough dividing line between the top 3 and bottom 3 options for me.</p>

    1. No Deal
    2. No Deal
    3. No Deal
    4. No Deal
    5. No Deal
    6. No Deal

    No other option has any deontological, teleological or dialogic moral authority.
    What medicines do you use that are dependent on manufacturing or ingredients from abroad..
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    In part due to this forum. It was some excellent arguments from @Richard_Tyndall and @Casino_Royale plus a very persuasive article I read at the start of the campaign by Michael Gove that made me reconsider my reasons for supporting Remain.

    Gove didn't really want to leave. For him it was just a power game, and he thought voting to leave would force the EU to bow down to our demands.
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-michael-goves-full-statement-on-why-he-is-backing-brexit-a6886221.html

    This is the article to which I refer which I just re-read and I still strongly agree with. This is why I am passionate about 'taking back control' which for me is the whole raison d'etre of Brexit unlike Faragists who just cared about immigration. Its why I laugh at AlastairMeeks for suggesting it was just racism and immigration. This was a positive, optimistic and thought-provoking piece and it still works.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    Pulpstar said:

    So how would everyone fill out their indicitive ballots ?

    6 options I can see that have some sort of support in the house:

    Revoke
    {2nd referendum/People's vote/May's deal subject to ratification by the public} <- All essentially identical
    Common Market 2.0
    May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
    May's deal
    No Deal

    I'd possibly go

    1) Common Market 2.0
    2) May's deal
    3) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
    4) 2nd Ref
    5) No deal
    6) Revocation

    There's a clear enough dividing line between the top 3 and bottom 3 options for me.</p>

    1) May's Deal
    2) May's Deal + CU
    3) Common Market 2.0
    4) No Deal
    5) Revoke
    6) 2nd Ref
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I really didn't like the way 2nd reffers were angling to get their option outside of the indicitive ballots. It's of the utmost substance and not simply a process issue, most dishonest. Sure, include May's deal subject to a 2nd vote in the indicitive votes but you can't just take whatever option emerges and produce another "subject to ratification by the public" hurdle for it.
    If it is Common Market 2.0, it is Common Market 2.0.

    It's a shame that May's deal (WA) followed by a GE isn't on the list as that seems the most sensible option to me.
    So we potentially get lumped with both May's Crap Deal and Corbyn at the same time? Egads that's the worst case scenario.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:



    Pulpstar said:

    If Letwin does go with some form of preference voting, it should be a requirement that a ballot ranks all of the available options, otherwise it is entirely invalidated. That would force everyone to either put it all on the public record or count themselves out of the process altogether.

    I suspect May would choose the latter

    Nonsense. If someone sticks up 1) No Deal for instance then you simply discard the ballot after the first round if it loses. Any voting system rewards those who make more preferences anyway.
    I don't see this at all. I genuinely don't believe this system can work. First, what about those who decide not to participate (I can see that 'no dealers' may well decide to do this)? Second, even having established some sort of 'pecking order' you can't force an MP to vote for the collective first choice to become legislation. For example, would the SNP be willing to vote for any collectively-agreed form of Brexit given their stated support for revocation? I just don't see it working (and that's before Corbyn/May get the whips to work).
    What did we do about those people who decided not to participate in the EU Ref?
    But MPs who don't participate in the indicative votes can still effectively veto legislation that they don't like later on in the process.
    Every MP has 1/650th of a veto in every vote, always has and always will.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1110477916775821312

    Jacob's waivering. The replies to his tweet might stiffen his resolve though.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    Pulpstar said:

    So how would everyone fill out their indicitive ballots ?

    6 options I can see that have some sort of support in the house:

    Revoke
    {2nd referendum/People's vote/May's deal subject to ratification by the public} <- All essentially identical
    Common Market 2.0
    May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
    May's deal
    No Deal

    I'd possibly go

    1) Common Market 2.0
    2) May's deal
    3) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
    4) 2nd Ref
    5) No deal
    6) Revocation

    There's a clear enough dividing line between the top 3 and bottom 3 options for me.</p>

    For me:
    1 - Common Market 2.0
    2 - 2nd Ref
    3 - May's Deal + CU
    4 - May's Deal
    5 - Revocation
    6 - No Deal

    3,4,5 may swap about depending on how I feel at the moment.
    6 is a long way down at the bottom
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    FPT @rcs1000

    rcs1000 said:

    Bah humbug, it leaves us permanently tied into the CU unless or until the EU decides its happy for us to leave.

    It leaves the UK in broadly the same position as Switzerland, only without the fees or the freedom of movement.

    How long before Switzerland and Norway start demanding that they pay our level of fees? Or that they can leave FoM?

    The backstop is at least as uncomfortable for the EU as for us. *And* we get internnational mediation if we think they aren't keeping up with their treaty obligations to implement a technical solution.

    Also: you've spoken on the board about having voted Remain. And yet today you've said you voted Leave. Which one is it?
    I missed you asking me this question yesterday so just to set the record straight I have spoken about having previously supported Remain. Which I did, until Cameron finished his renegotiations. I argued pro-Remain for years on this site getting into a number of disagreements with @iSam and @Richard_Tyndall in particular. I switched from Remain to Leave during the campaign and I was one of the few people on this forum to really struggle determining how to vote during the early part of the campaign and I ended up deciding Leave and said on this forum that I had switched from Remain to Leave before voting.

    In part due to this forum. It was some excellent arguments from @Richard_Tyndall and @Casino_Royale plus a very persuasive article I read at the start of the campaign by Michael Gove that made me reconsider my reasons for supporting Remain. I know not many people actually change their minds on any site like this, but I did.

    Hope that clears that up, I wouldn't want you to think I'm being disingenuous.
    I made exactly the opposite movement during the campaign, in part because of the 'arguments' of the people you mention! ;)

    Oh, and welcome back iSam.

    Edit: and with hindsight, subsequent events have only firmed up my view. I darsay you feel the same way ...
    Howdy
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The ship might have sailed for the ERG .

    The DUP still won’t back the deal , the pro EU wing of the Tory party will now push for a softer Brexit so combined there’s not enough Labour MPs to cover that .

    The ERG deserve total humiliation.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    TGOHF said:

    On the assumption most of ERG will vote for TM deal tomorrow plus the conservatives who have backed it previously and some labour mps her deal may emerge tomorrow as the way forward.

    I have to admire your optimism.

    If Brexit is blocked there is going to be a bloodbath at the local elections for the Conservatives. Particularly this year's batch.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Suspect the next discussions will be who takes the blame - but for the Con party does it really matter - the seats will be lost.

    I suspect they're lucky that UKIP has been eviscerated. But I agree many are likely to sit on their hands.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Pulpstar said:

    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:



    Pulpstar said:

    If Letwin does go with some form of preference voting, it should be a requirement that a ballot ranks all of the available options, otherwise it is entirely invalidated. That would force everyone to either put it all on the public record or count themselves out of the process altogether.

    I suspect May would choose the latter

    Nonsense. If someone sticks up 1) No Deal for instance then you simply discard the ballot after the first round if it loses. Any voting system rewards those who make more preferences anyway.
    I don't see this at all. I genuinely don't believe this system can work. First, what about those who decide not to participate (I can see that 'no dealers' may well decide to do this)? Second, even having established some sort of 'pecking order' you can't force an MP to vote for the collective first choice to become legislation. For example, would the SNP be willing to vote for any collectively-agreed form of Brexit given their stated support for revocation? I just don't see it working (and that's before Corbyn/May get the whips to work).
    What did we do about those people who decided not to participate in the EU Ref?
    But MPs who don't participate in the indicative votes can still effectively veto legislation that they don't like later on in the process.
    Every MP has 1/650th of a veto in every vote, always has and always will.
    1/325th?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    nico67 said:

    The ship might have sailed for the ERG .

    The DUP still won’t back the deal , the pro EU wing of the Tory party will now push for a softer Brexit so combined there’s not enough Labour MPs to cover that .

    The ERG deserve total humiliation.

    You certainly cant accuse them of not working for it.
  • TGOHF said:

    On the assumption most of ERG will vote for TM deal tomorrow plus the conservatives who have backed it previously and some labour mps her deal may emerge tomorrow as the way forward.

    I have to admire your optimism.

    If Brexit is blocked there is going to be a bloodbath at the local elections for the Conservatives. Particularly this year's batch.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Suspect the next discussions will be who takes the blame - but for the Con party does it really matter - the seats will be lost.

    I am not optimistic. How can anyone be in this climate but it not impossible
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    edited March 2019

    Pulpstar said:

    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:



    Pulpstar said:

    If Letwin does go with some form of preference voting, it should be a requirement that a ballot ranks all of the available options, otherwise it is entirely invalidated. That would force everyone to either put it all on the public record or count themselves out of the process altogether.

    I suspect May would choose the latter

    Nonsense. If someone sticks up 1) No Deal for instance then you simply discard the ballot after the first round if it loses. Any voting system rewards those who make more preferences anyway.
    I don't see this at all. I genuinely don't believe this system can work. First, what about those who decide not to participate (I can see that 'no dealers' may well decide to do this)? Second, even having established some sort of 'pecking order' you can't force an MP to vote for the collective first choice to become legislation. For example, would the SNP be willing to vote for any collectively-agreed form of Brexit given their stated support for revocation? I just don't see it working (and that's before Corbyn/May get the whips to work).
    What did we do about those people who decided not to participate in the EU Ref?
    But MPs who don't participate in the indicative votes can still effectively veto legislation that they don't like later on in the process.
    Every MP has 1/650th of a veto in every vote, always has and always will.
    1/325th?
    1/318th I suppose once we've discounted tellers, speakers and Sinn Fein..
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited March 2019
    I'd vote for May's deal, it most captures the tone of the leave campaign and I'm still not exactly sure why Labour and the ERG have voted against it. I know May has been stubborn in not moving from her position but all the other options really are unworkable. Common Market 2.0 (freedom of movement, massive delay), Customs Union (all the main benefits of Brexit ignored), Referendum (Void without a no deal option), No Deal (MPs won't allow it), Revoke (Massive backlash, despite what some people think)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    My preferred option of May's Deal minus the backstop is not an option anymore. So from where we are now and with deep regret as I don't actually like ANY of these options.

    1) No deal
    2) Common Market 2.0
    3) 2nd Ref
    4) May's deal
    5) May's deal + custom union
    6) Revocation*

    * I'd prefer revocation to May's deal but not without another referendum first hence that's #3
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Can anyone tell me why the DUP are still holding out against May's Deal, given they are making Remain more likely?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1110477916775821312

    Jacob's waivering. The replies to his tweet might stiffen his resolve though.

    Too little too late. This was obvious by the time of MV2 at the very least and since then nothing has changed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited March 2019
    For me:
    1 - 2nd Ref
    2 - Revocation
    3 - Common Market 2.0
    4 -May's Deal + CU
    5 -May's Deal
    6 - No Deal

    1 and 2 are tough, because revocation delivers the right answer quickly, provides people and business with certainty, makes a painful political process simply stop and avoids the grief of another divisive referendum. But the argument that it needs a referendum to set aside a referendum is strong.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:



    Pulpstar said:

    If Letwin does go with some form of preference voting, it should be a requirement that a ballot ranks all of the available options, otherwise it is entirely invalidated. That would force everyone to either put it all on the public record or count themselves out of the process altogether.

    I suspect May would choose the latter

    Nonsense. If someone sticks up 1) No Deal for instance then you simply discard the ballot after the first round if it loses. Any voting system rewards those who make more preferences anyway.
    I don't see this at all. I genuinely don't believe this system can work. First, what about those who decide not to participate (I can see that 'no dealers' may well decide to do this)? Second, even having established some sort of 'pecking order' you can't force an MP to vote for the collective first choice to become legislation. For example, would the SNP be willing to vote for any collectively-agreed form of Brexit given their stated support for revocation? I just don't see it working (and that's before Corbyn/May get the whips to work).
    What did we do about those people who decided not to participate in the EU Ref?
    But MPs who don't participate in the indicative votes can still effectively veto legislation that they don't like later on in the process.
    Every MP has 1/650th of a veto in every vote, always has and always will.
    1/325th?
    1/318th I suppose once we've discounted tellers, speakers and Sinn Fein..
    1/320th. You still need tellers, even though their presence isn't counted.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    In austerity news I see that UK residents managed to spend nearly £46bn on overseas travel and tourism in 2018:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourism/novemberanddecember2018provisionalresults#trends-in-overseas-visits-by-uk-residents-non-seasonally-adjusted

    Which was more than double what foreign visitors to the UK spent.

    The austerity is entirely in the public finances. As many people on here are keen to point out, the private economy is doing rather nicely, with many incomes rising in real terms.

    The two are not mutually exclusive, I'd say - and there will be many small statists who see it as a feature not a bug. But it's not much comfort if you're waiting till 9pm for a care worker to give you your tea.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    FPT @rcs1000

    rcs1000 said:

    Bah humbug, it leaves us permanently tied into the CU unless or until the EU decides its happy for us to leave.

    It leaves the UK in broadly the same position as Switzerland, only without the fees or the freedom of movement.

    How long before Switzerland and Norway start demanding that they pay our level of fees? Or that they can leave FoM?

    The backstop is at least as uncomfortable for the EU as for us. *And* we get internnational mediation if we think they aren't keeping up with their treaty obligations to implement a technical solution.

    Also: you've spoken on the board about having voted Remain. And yet today you've said you voted Leave. Which one is it?
    I missed you asking me this question yesterday so just to set the record straight I have spoken about having previously supported Remain. Which I did, until Cameron finished his renegotiations. I argued pro-Remain for years on this site getting into a number of disagreements with @iSam and @Richard_Tyndall in particular. I switched from Remain to Leave during the campaign and I was one of the few people on this forum to really struggle determining how to vote during the early part of the campaign and I ended up deciding Leave and said on this forum that I had switched from Remain to Leave before voting.

    In part due to this forum. It was some excellent arguments from @Richard_Tyndall and @Casino_Royale plus a very persuasive article I read at the start of the campaign by Michael Gove that made me reconsider my reasons for supporting Remain. I know not many people actually change their minds on any site like this, but I did.

    Hope that clears that up, I wouldn't want you to think I'm being disingenuous.
    Bear in mind Phil that if we do end up with Norway it will be exactly the kind of Leave that I was arguing for all that time in the years prior to the referendum. Like Robert I genuinely believe the Deal is good for us as it gives us almost everything we wanted out of the Brexit process and then allows us to negotiate the future relationship - whether that is my preference of Norway or something that ends FoM. But this process is not the end state. It is merely the key that allows us to open the door to the negotiations.

    What it does do is get us out of the EU. That in itself is a thing of great worth.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I would vote for: May's Deal; May's Deal + CU; 2nd Ref (no particular order, they're all crap but they all offer an acceptable resolution)
    I would abstain on Common Market 2.0 (it does not meet the mandate obtained by the campaign)
    I would vote against No Deal; Revoke (both would be utterly disastrous in different ways)
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I really didn't like the way 2nd reffers were angling to get their option outside of the indicitive ballots. It's of the utmost substance and not simply a process issue, most dishonest. Sure, include May's deal subject to a 2nd vote in the indicitive votes but you can't just take whatever option emerges and produce another "subject to ratification by the public" hurdle for it.
    If it is Common Market 2.0, it is Common Market 2.0.

    It's a shame that May's deal (WA) followed by a GE isn't on the list as that seems the most sensible option to me.
    Very fair chance of a GE following any variant of leave (Except No deal) to be honest as they all must include the backstop so the DUP will probably stop supporting the Gov't.
    Indeed - any Conservative MP voting for any of the options bar no deal is voting for a GE...

    If you believe that you really are in la la land. If there is a GE it will be fully owned by the ERG. If there is a Corbyn government it will be the fault of those like you that have sacrificed the Conservatives reputation for a strong economy and good government of the swivel-eyed altar of European obsessiveness.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So how would everyone fill out their indicitive ballots ?

    6 options I can see that have some sort of support in the house:

    Revoke
    {2nd referendum/People's vote/May's deal subject to ratification by the public} <- All essentially identical
    Common Market 2.0
    May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
    May's deal
    No Deal

    I'd possibly go

    1) Common Market 2.0
    2) May's deal
    3) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
    4) 2nd Ref
    5) No deal
    6) Revocation

    There's a clear enough dividing line between the top 3 and bottom 3 options for me.</p>

    1. No Deal
    2. No Deal
    3. No Deal
    4. No Deal
    5. No Deal
    6. No Deal

    No other option has any deontological, teleological or dialogic moral authority.
    What medicines do you use that are dependent on manufacturing or ingredients from abroad..
    He's taking something for repetititus. It's not very effective though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    Can anyone tell me why the DUP are still holding out against May's Deal, given they are making Remain more likely?

    The backstop is an existential threat to them.

    They'll all sign their indicative votes

    1) No Deal.

    But any variant of May's deal is worse than revocation for them.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1110477916775821312

    Jacob's waivering. The replies to his tweet might stiffen his resolve though.

    The replies to his tweet should terrify anyone rational.

    Why would anyone want to be on twatter if those are the people you attract.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1110477916775821312

    Jacob's waivering. The replies to his tweet might stiffen his resolve though.

    Too little too late. This was obvious by the time of MV2 at the very least and since then nothing has changed.
    Yep, I think the vote MV2 was the nail in the coffin of Brexit (as we know it). That was the point that the EU shut down the shop (rightly so), and things spiralled out of control.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Can anyone tell me why the DUP are still holding out against May's Deal, given they are making Remain more likely?

    Remain for which somebody else cops the shit is perfect outcome for the drum bashers. No economic or social disruption in the 6 counties and their hands are clean.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    edited March 2019
    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:



    Pulpstar said:

    If Letwin does go with some form of preference voting, it should be a requirement that a ballot ranks all of the available options, otherwise it is entirely invalidated. That would force everyone to either put it all on the public record or count themselves out of the process altogether.

    I suspect May would choose the latter

    Nonsense. If someone sticks up 1) No Deal for instance then you simply discard the ballot after the first round if it loses. Any voting system rewards those who make more preferences anyway.
    I don't see this at all. I genuinely don't believe this system can work. First, what about those who decide not to participate (I can see that 'no dealers' may well decide to do this)? Second, even having established some sort of 'pecking order' you can't force an MP to vote for the collective first choice to become legislation. For example, would the SNP be willing to vote for any collectively-agreed form of Brexit given their stated support for revocation? I just don't see it working (and that's before Corbyn/May get the whips to work).
    What did we do about those people who decided not to participate in the EU Ref?
    But MPs who don't participate in the indicative votes can still effectively veto legislation that they don't like later on in the process.
    True.

    Also - and this is fairly relevant given the Brexit experience so far - even if MPs can agree on a single Brexit concept that is acceptable to the EU (and this is a fairly big 'if'), there would still be enormous scope to fall out over the details.

    But mixing up Phase 1 outcomes, Phase 2 outcomes and process questions is stupid anyway, as I said at the weekend.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    So what is the next stage in this farce? Presumably the Commons will vote for a second referendum or, at the least, a confirmatory referendum seeking approval of any deal that is done with an alternative of remain before departure? What will May do then?

    Have the ERG worked out they've lost yet or is that still much for them to grasp? Idiots doesn't come close.

    The two scenarios that seem to be rising in probability are May's deal, on the basis that the ERG and DUP finally smell the coffee, or a GE, on the basis that the clash between Parliament's preference and Government preference can't otherwise be resolved.

    Problem with May's deal is that just as she wins over her extremists she is losing Labour and Tory remainer support. They now have alternatives to root for.

    From here surely the DUP would want a softer, UK-wide Brexit that essentially takes the possibility of a separate status for Northern Ireland off the table - or no Brexit at all.

    That said, I am now totally lost. There is no logic to any of this. All I do know is that I cannot think of another PM who has been so humiliated and emasculated, and remained in office.

    There isn’t - and that is the direct consequence of May presenting a hung Parliament with a fait accompli, with barely the time to rubber stamp it, let alone make another choice.

    I’ve said before that the only way out of this I can see is Norway, as it is the option which takes away the least from those who voted against Brexit, while still complying with the terms of the referendum vote.
    And it is a stable solution, which retains the potential for future movement in either direction, without requiring it.
    I'll ask again - what is the mechanism for leaving Norway?
    By negotiation. It wouldn't be easy, that's for sure, though that's a feature rather than a bug.
    That said, it's a treaty arrangement, and not a constitutional one, so simpler than our current predicament.
    So as I expected, no "Article 50" equivalent. We can't just walk away from it when the voters wake up and go "You f*cking WHAT????"

    Norway is a horror show waiting to open.
    Nope.
    There is an Article 50 equivalent: Article 127.
    Twelve months notice.

    The EEA Agreement is here: https://www.efta.int/sites/default/files/documents/legal-texts/eea/the-eea-agreement/Main Text of the Agreement/EEAagreement.pdf
    And no legal need for negotiations or discussions on how to leave or any future relationships. You just serve notice and 12 months later you leave.
  • Ken Clarke wants Norway plus
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1110477916775821312

    Jacob's waivering. The replies to his tweet might stiffen his resolve though.

    The replies to his tweet should terrify anyone rational.

    Why would anyone want to be on twatter if those are the people you attract.
    The risk for any revolutionary is that however extreme you are there are always followers ready to go a step further.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    Can anyone tell me why the DUP are still holding out against May's Deal, given they are making Remain more likely?

    Don't think they thought through the risks Leave would actually mean to their status. Let's be honest, if May didn't need their votes for a majority she would have sold them down the river long ago.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    Given that we have experts on here can anyone explain how a plane destined for Germany managed to end up in Edinburgh? Would they not have had to lodge the wrong flight plan as well, otherwise they would presumably have been notified that they were off course at an early stage? How on earth could that not be noticed? How did they manage to get a landing slot at Edinburgh? It just seems really, really strange.

    The wrong flight plan was lodged, but it was a wet lease operator for BA so they wouldn't have thought it odd that they were going to EDI rather than DUS as the whole point is that they are filling in for when BA don't have enough planes.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1110477916775821312

    Jacob's waivering. The replies to his tweet might stiffen his resolve though.

    Blimey - that's exactly the sort of thing I saw with some MPs round my way when they switched to deal the other week.. and illustrates the problem the Tories now have: enable No Brexit ("traitor") or vote for the deal (still "traitor").
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    Dura_Ace said:

    Can anyone tell me why the DUP are still holding out against May's Deal, given they are making Remain more likely?

    Remain for which somebody else cops the shit is perfect outcome for the drum bashers. No economic or social disruption in the 6 counties and their hands are clean.
    Hopefully then after the next election, assuming it is not a hung Parliament, whoever is in Government will decide it is time for a vote on a united Ireland as per the GFA.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:



    Pulpstar said:

    If Letwin does go with some form of preference voting, it should be a requirement that a ballot ranks all of the available options, otherwise it is entirely invalidated. That would force everyone to either put it all on the public record or count themselves out of the process altogether.

    I suspect May would choose the latter

    Nonsense. If someone sticks up 1) No Deal for instance then you simply discard the ballot after the first round if it loses. Any voting system rewards those who make more preferences anyway.
    I don't see this at all. I genuinely don't believe this system can work. First, what about those who decide not to participate (I can see that 'no dealers' may well decide to do this)? Second, even having established some sort of 'pecking order' you can't force an MP to vote for the collective first choice to become legislation. For example, would the SNP be willing to vote for any collectively-agreed form of Brexit given their stated support for revocation? I just don't see it working (and that's before Corbyn/May get the whips to work).
    What did we do about those people who decided not to participate in the EU Ref?
    But MPs who don't participate in the indicative votes can still effectively veto legislation that they don't like later on in the process.
    Every MP has 1/650th of a veto in every vote, always has and always will.
    1/325th?
    1/318th I suppose once we've discounted tellers, speakers and Sinn Fein..
    1/320th. You still need tellers, even though their presence isn't counted.
    My point is that if the ERG/DUP will only vote for 'no deal' and the SNP will only vote for 'revocation' then you're about 150/320ths towards ensuring nothing gets passed. And that's before we get to deciding where you're going to put the E in your preferred acronym.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    Morning all :)

    As I have to work for a living, I'm left trying to play catch up with the previous night's political nonsense.

    When I hear Matt Hancock say the Government "can't pre-commit to following that they (the Commons) vote for" I'm left to wonder if any of last night's events have a scintilla of significance or real importance.

    Once again the May loyalists are out and about claiming the WA is going to pass "this time" as it seems the ERG are "about to swing behind it". We heard all this last time only to see the WA come up 140+ votes short and as long as the DUP and a few diehards retain their opposition, it won't clear the Commons so it's just all talk.

    As always, nothing has changed. There's the WA, leaving without the WA or revoking. In essence, a long extension would be the same as revoking - if we asked for two years we might as well reset the clock to March 2017 and start again.

    There's also the fact changing the date to April 12th has to clear the Commons this week - that may be interesting. It will of course pass but I fail to see any relevance to this series of indicative votes tomorrow night apart from trying to push BBC Parliament as the new entertainment channel. The Government may "take heed" but it doesn't have to do what Parliament instructs despite all the sound and fury.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    So what is the next stage in this farce? Presumably the Commons will vote for a second referendum or, at the least, a confirmatory referendum seeking approval of any deal that is done with an alternative of remain before departure? What will May do then?

    Have the ERG worked out they've lost yet or is that still much for them to grasp? Idiots doesn't come close.


    Problem with May's deal is that just as she wins over her extremists she is losing Labour and Tory remainer support. They now have alternatives to root for.

    From here surely the DUP would want a softer, UK-wide Brexit that essentially takes the possibility of a separate status for Northern Ireland off the table - or no Brexit at all.

    That said, I am now totally lost. There is no logic to any of this. All I do know is that I cannot think of another PM who has been so humiliated and emasculated, and remained in office.

    There isn’t - and that is the direct consequence of May presenting a hung Parliament with a fait accompli, with barely the time to rubber stamp it, let alone make another choice.

    I’ve said before that the only way out of this I can see is Norway, as it is the option which takes away the least from those who voted against Brexit, while still complying with the terms of the referendum vote.
    And it is a stable solution, which retains the potential for future movement in either direction, without requiring it.
    I'll ask again - what is the mechanism for leaving Norway?
    By negotiation. It wouldn't be easy, that's for sure, though that's a feature rather than a bug.
    That said, it's a treaty arrangement, and not a constitutional one, so simpler than our current predicament.
    So as I expected, no "Article 50" equivalent. We can't just walk away from it when the voters wake up and go "You f*cking WHAT????"

    Norway is a horror show waiting to open.
    Nope.
    There is an Article 50 equivalent: Article 127.
    Twelve months notice.

    The EEA Agreement is here: https://www.efta.int/sites/default/files/documents/legal-texts/eea/the-eea-agreement/Main Text of the Agreement/EEAagreement.pdf
    And no legal need for negotiations or discussions on how to leave or any future relationships. You just serve notice and 12 months later you leave.
    Or you do it properly, and negotiate before serving notice - again, unlike the present debacle.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Bear in mind Phil that if we do end up with Norway it will be exactly the kind of Leave that I was arguing for all that time in the years prior to the referendum. Like Robert I genuinely believe the Deal is good for us as it gives us almost everything we wanted out of the Brexit process and then allows us to negotiate the future relationship - whether that is my preference of Norway or something that ends FoM. But this process is not the end state. It is merely the key that allows us to open the door to the negotiations.

    What it does do is get us out of the EU. That in itself is a thing of great worth.

    I understand that and would prefer Norway to May's Deal. I'm fully OK with Norway.

    Norway to May's Deal is advantageous for 3 reasons that I can see

    1: We have a right to unilaterally exit the EEA if a future government chooses to. This may seem arcane but to me this is a matter of deep principle. No Parliament should bind its successors.
    2: From what you've said the EEA have certain protections on new regulations being developed that don't necessarily exist if we're in the backstop and being compelled to adopt regulations without a say.
    3: We'd be out of the Customs Union and able to develop our own trade deals.

    The downsides of Norway to May's Deal are:
    1: FoM continues - I don't really care about this at all.
    2: Have to make payments - If we're in the Market we should make our fair share of payments [in the EU we pay more than our fair share].
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    IanB2 said:

    For me:
    1 - 2nd Ref
    2 - Revocation
    3 - Common Market 2.0
    4 -May's Deal + CU
    5 -May's Deal
    6 - No Deal

    Almost the same as my list:
    1 - 2nd Ref
    2 - Revocation
    4 - Common Market 2.0
    10 -May's Deal + CU
    50 -May's Deal
    666 - No Deal

  • Ken Clarke thinks TM staying in place is desirable
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    eristdoof said:

    IanB2 said:

    For me:
    1 - 2nd Ref
    2 - Revocation
    3 - Common Market 2.0
    4 -May's Deal + CU
    5 -May's Deal
    6 - No Deal

    Almost the same as my list:
    1 - 2nd Ref
    2 - Revocation
    4 - Common Market 2.0
    10 -May's Deal + CU
    50 -May's Deal
    666 - No Deal

    As a further thought, perhaps revoke first, and have a referendum second. This time with a proper plan and asking whether people want to go through it again or forget the whole idea.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628

    In austerity news I see that UK residents managed to spend nearly £46bn on overseas travel and tourism in 2018:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourism/novemberanddecember2018provisionalresults#trends-in-overseas-visits-by-uk-residents-non-seasonally-adjusted

    Which was more than double what foreign visitors to the UK spent.

    The austerity is entirely in the public finances. As many people on here are keen to point out, the private economy is doing rather nicely, with many incomes rising in real terms.

    The two are not mutually exclusive, I'd say - and there will be many small statists who see it as a feature not a bug. But it's not much comfort if you're waiting till 9pm for a care worker to give you your tea.
    The public finances which has seen nearly a trillion quid borrowed during the last decade ?

    You can argue that the spending priorities have been wrong but there's been no shortage of overall government spending.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1110477916775821312

    Jacob's waivering. The replies to his tweet might stiffen his resolve though.

    The replies to his tweet should terrify anyone rational.

    Why would anyone want to be on twatter if those are the people you attract.
    As Tom Lehrer said:
    "I should like to consider the folk song, and expound briefly on a theory I have held for some time, to the effect that the reason most folk songs are so atrocious is that they were written by the people."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Didn't the BBC have seven options?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Nigelb said:

    Or you do it properly, and negotiate before serving notice - again, unlike the present debacle.

    To be fair the EU refused to negotiate before Article 50 was invoked.

    So what we should have done was identify all No Deal risks, develop a plan to mitigate them, say we're ready for No Deal in 2 years if it happens and then invoke. We could then negotiate on fair terms with No Deal as the fallback in case it becomes necessary - and it would have been less likely to be necessary had the EU been acting as an honest partner and not trying to subjugate us.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited March 2019
    Blimey. One thing's clear in the responses to Pulpstar's 6 options* question - we're all over the place here on PB.

    If we're at all representative I can see an awful lot of confusion ahead tomorrow and following days in the HoC.


    * 6 options:
    Revoke
    2nd ref
    Common Market 2.0
    May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
    May's deal
    No Deal
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Sean_F said:

    The Express headline has gone full fruitcake.

    It should have read "Diana's Assassins Have Stolen What's Left of Brexit."
    Or

    "Summer Scorcher Has Stolen Whats left of Brexit"

    or

    "Siberian Blast Steals whats left of Brexit"

    Or

    "New hope for Arthritis Sufferers Steals whats left of Brexit"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    IanB2 said:

    Didn't the BBC have seven options?

    What's the seventh option ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    Roger said:

    blueblue said:

    kjohnw said:

    isam said:

    kjohnw said:

    isam said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr B2,

    "Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."

    The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.

    They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.

    The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
    My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
    Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
    That is what such a betrayal will create the perfect storm for a trumpesque leader to emerge
    We will have to make do with an anti-semite taking us to the promised land of Venezeula.

    The high-pitched whining from well to-do Remainers as their world crashes and burns will only be audible to dogs and dolphins.
    I'm sorry, but this kind of rubbish makes me really quite angry. I've been a Eurosceptic for decades, and the passage of time has only deepened that view. But if any Conservatives care so much about leaving an irritating, bureaucratic but ultimately harmless bloc that they're prepared to let the UK be Corbynized, then I have to ask ... are they really Conservatives at all?
    You obviously belong to a different Conservative Party to the obsessive flapping white coats most of us have been watching for years. Casino Royale perhaps being the archetype.
    As usual, Roger, you like to project your own prejudices onto those who you politically disagree with.

    That’s a total misrepresentation of me and my position, as even a cursory reading of my posts would reveal to you.

    It’s projection like this that leads to you being always wrong, and the worst tipster on this site.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    In part due to this forum. It was some excellent arguments from @Richard_Tyndall and @Casino_Royale plus a very persuasive article I read at the start of the campaign by Michael Gove that made me reconsider my reasons for supporting Remain.

    Gove didn't really want to leave. For him it was just a power game, and he thought voting to leave would force the EU to bow down to our demands.
    Yes I think that's right. He genuinely believed that we held all the cards and the EU would offer us a better deal to stay.

    Gove's outlook is quintessentially Anglo-centric (although he is actually a scot of course) - he knows little about foreigners, rarely travels abroad (does not like flying) and cannot see why others might not share his own strongly-held but sometimes naive belief in the rightness of his own convictions. This makes it hard for him to anticipate the reactions of his opponents, such as the teachers and the EU, and he seems surprised and even hurt to discover that they disagree with him.
  • Ken Clarke thinks TM staying in place is desirable

    Why isn't he May's Willie?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1110477916775821312

    Jacob's waivering. The replies to his tweet might stiffen his resolve though.

    the problem the Tories now have: enable No Brexit ("traitor") or vote for the deal (still "traitor").
    They've dug their own graves.....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I really didn't like the way 2nd reffers were angling to get their option outside of the indicitive ballots. It's of the utmost substance and not simply a process issue, most dishonest. Sure, include May's deal subject to a 2nd vote in the indicitive votes but you can't just take whatever option emerges and produce another "subject to ratification by the public" hurdle for it.
    If it is Common Market 2.0, it is Common Market 2.0.

    It's a shame that May's deal (WA) followed by a GE isn't on the list as that seems the most sensible option to me.
    Very fair chance of a GE following any variant of leave (Except No deal) to be honest as they all must include the backstop so the DUP will probably stop supporting the Gov't.
    Indeed - any Conservative MP voting for any of the options bar no deal is voting for a GE...

    If you believe that you really are in la la land. If there is a GE it will be fully owned by the ERG. If there is a Corbyn government it will be the fault of those like you that have sacrificed the Conservatives reputation for a strong economy and good government of the swivel-eyed altar of European obsessiveness.
    Ah - I see you have started already. Bit like the post referendum landscape - you are trying to blame backbenchers for the failure of the government. You can try - but it really won't matter as the ballot box result is the same either way.

    A big problem for the Conservative party - perhaps it's time to move beyond it.
  • Ken Clarke thinks the EU could quickly change their treaty to exempt the UK from taking part in the EU in two weeks

    I really respect Ken but that suggestion is most implausable
  • Blimey. One thing's clear in the responses to Pulpstar's 6 options* question - we're all over the place here on PB.

    If we're at all representative I can see an awful lot of confusion ahead tomorrow and following days in the HoC.


    * 6 options:
    Revoke
    2nd ref
    Common Market 2.0
    May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
    May's deal
    No Deal

    The voting system is key.

    For example if they used the quasi AV the Tory party uses to elect its leaders could produce a different outcome to say STV and FPTP.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268

    I would vote for: May's Deal; May's Deal + CU; 2nd Ref (no particular order, they're all crap but they all offer an acceptable resolution)
    I would abstain on Common Market 2.0 (it does not meet the mandate obtained by the campaign)
    I would vote against No Deal; Revoke (both would be utterly disastrous in different ways)

    What is Common Market 2.0 ?
  • Nigelb said:

    I would vote for: May's Deal; May's Deal + CU; 2nd Ref (no particular order, they're all crap but they all offer an acceptable resolution)
    I would abstain on Common Market 2.0 (it does not meet the mandate obtained by the campaign)
    I would vote against No Deal; Revoke (both would be utterly disastrous in different ways)

    What is Common Market 2.0 ?
    🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    Nigelb said:

    I would vote for: May's Deal; May's Deal + CU; 2nd Ref (no particular order, they're all crap but they all offer an acceptable resolution)
    I would abstain on Common Market 2.0 (it does not meet the mandate obtained by the campaign)
    I would vote against No Deal; Revoke (both would be utterly disastrous in different ways)

    What is Common Market 2.0 ?
    http://betterbrexit.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Common-Market-2.0.pdf
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268

    Ken Clarke thinks TM staying in place is desirable

    I don't think he does. He merely said there was no realistic alternative, for the time being.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Ken Clarke thinks the EU could quickly change their treaty to exempt the UK from taking part in the EU in two weeks

    I really respect Ken but that suggestion is most implausable

    Well if we aren't in the EU elections we are out of the EU.

    It's a theory but meh..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    Nigelb said:

    I would vote for: May's Deal; May's Deal + CU; 2nd Ref (no particular order, they're all crap but they all offer an acceptable resolution)
    I would abstain on Common Market 2.0 (it does not meet the mandate obtained by the campaign)
    I would vote against No Deal; Revoke (both would be utterly disastrous in different ways)

    What is Common Market 2.0 ?
    🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄
    No, it isn't a unicorn.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Cyclefree said:

    There are, though, three good things about Brexit.

    1. It has shown us in vivid Technicolour how utterly stupid and pig-ignorant many of our MPs are.
    2. Katya Adler.
    3. All those pictures of Donald Tusk when younger showing what a hottie he was.

    Absolutely agree on 1 and 2

    Cannot comment on Tusk
    L: Young Rees-Mogg about to flagellate himself before vespers.
    R: Young Tusk protesting against Soviet totalitarianism on the streets of Gdansk.


    That haunted and distanced photo of Rees-Mogg suddenly makes me feel as if I understand something a bit better.
    The pre-lunch vodka intake of hairdressers in the Windsor and Eton area? Even if nanny cut JRM's hair, how on earth does he end up with a fringe two inches lower on one side?
    Kenneth Widmerpool to the life, even down to the weird overcoat.
    Admittedly Widmerpool was a thoroughly sinister figure, and JRMs business dealings do fit that narrative. The problem is that Widmerpool, like Roderick Spode, was a thickset man, JRM well...

    https://www.shortlist.com/news/the-beano-jacob-rees-mogg-walter-bash-street-kids/352112

    He's a weed.
  • Ken Clarke thinks TM staying in place is desirable

    Why isn't he May's Willie?
    Because she hates successful Tory Chancellors.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    IanB2 said:

    eristdoof said:

    IanB2 said:

    For me:
    1 - 2nd Ref
    2 - Revocation
    3 - Common Market 2.0
    4 -May's Deal + CU
    5 -May's Deal
    6 - No Deal

    Almost the same as my list:
    1 - 2nd Ref
    2 - Revocation
    4 - Common Market 2.0
    10 -May's Deal + CU
    50 -May's Deal
    666 - No Deal

    As a further thought, perhaps revoke first, and have a referendum second. This time with a proper plan and asking whether people want to go through it again or forget the whole idea.
    Yes - that would be my preference.

    1. Revoke.
    2. Work out a Brexit plan.
    3. Agree a Brexit plan - not just the WA but the future relationship (Norway / Common Market 2.0, Canada, whatever) which the EU will agree to.
    3. 2nd referendum on choice between that Brexit plan and Remain.

    On no account - No Deal.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    eristdoof said:

    IanB2 said:

    For me:
    1 - 2nd Ref
    2 - Revocation
    3 - Common Market 2.0
    4 -May's Deal + CU
    5 -May's Deal
    6 - No Deal

    Almost the same as my list:
    1 - 2nd Ref
    2 - Revocation
    4 - Common Market 2.0
    10 -May's Deal + CU
    50 -May's Deal
    666 - No Deal

    As a further thought, perhaps revoke first, and have a referendum second. This time with a proper plan and asking whether people want to go through it again or forget the whole idea.
    Yes - that would be my preference.

    1. Revoke.
    2. Work out a Brexit plan.
    3. Agree a Brexit plan - not just the WA but the future relationship (Norway / Common Market 2.0, Canada, whatever) which the EU will agree to.
    3. 2nd referendum on choice between that Brexit plan and Remain.

    On no account - No Deal.
    Except again the EU will refuse to negotiate outside Article 50 so how do you get around that?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1110477916775821312

    Jacob's waivering. The replies to his tweet might stiffen his resolve though.

    Too late.

    He should have led his fan club not incited and then pandered to their worst prejudices.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    Blimey. One thing's clear in the responses to Pulpstar's 6 options* question - we're all over the place here on PB.

    If we're at all representative I can see an awful lot of confusion ahead tomorrow and following days in the HoC.


    * 6 options:
    Revoke
    2nd ref
    Common Market 2.0
    May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
    May's deal
    No Deal

    The voting system is key.

    For example if they used the quasi AV the Tory party uses to elect its leaders could produce a different outcome to say STV and FPTP.
    And whether the votes are secret will also make a big difference I would suggest.
  • Nigelb said:

    Ken Clarke thinks TM staying in place is desirable

    I don't think he does. He merely said there was no realistic alternative, for the time being.

    Adds upto the same thing really
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503

    In part due to this forum. It was some excellent arguments from @Richard_Tyndall and @Casino_Royale plus a very persuasive article I read at the start of the campaign by Michael Gove that made me reconsider my reasons for supporting Remain.

    Gove didn't really want to leave. For him it was just a power game, and he thought voting to leave would force the EU to bow down to our demands.
    Yes I think that's right. He genuinely believed that we held all the cards and the EU would offer us a better deal to stay.

    Gove's outlook is quintessentially Anglo-centric (although he is actually a scot of course) - he knows little about foreigners, rarely travels abroad (does not like flying) and cannot see why others might not share his own strongly-held but sometimes naive belief in the rightness of his own convictions. This makes it hard for him to anticipate the reactions of his opponents, such as the teachers and the EU, and he seems surprised and even hurt to discover that they disagree with him.
    I don’t think that’s true. I know Gove wrote an article several years ago, which is the evidence for Williams assertion, but his desire to Leave the EU was sincere and has been for a very long time.
  • Watching Sky this morning there is an absence of ERG members - maybe they are in panic mode
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Blimey. One thing's clear in the responses to Pulpstar's 6 options* question - we're all over the place here on PB.

    If we're at all representative I can see an awful lot of confusion ahead tomorrow and following days in the HoC.


    * 6 options:
    Revoke
    2nd ref
    Common Market 2.0
    May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
    May's deal
    No Deal

    The voting system is key.

    For example if they used the quasi AV the Tory party uses to elect its leaders could produce a different outcome to say STV and FPTP.
    Maybe someone could do us a thread header on it?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Watching Sky this morning there is an absence of ERG members - maybe they are in panic mode

    Is there a clashing grand wizard meeting somewhere?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Watching Sky this morning there is an absence of ERG members - maybe they are in panic mode

    Perhaps they won't bother voting ....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    TudorRose said:

    Blimey. One thing's clear in the responses to Pulpstar's 6 options* question - we're all over the place here on PB.

    If we're at all representative I can see an awful lot of confusion ahead tomorrow and following days in the HoC.


    * 6 options:
    Revoke
    2nd ref
    Common Market 2.0
    May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
    May's deal
    No Deal

    The voting system is key.

    For example if they used the quasi AV the Tory party uses to elect its leaders could produce a different outcome to say STV and FPTP.
    And whether the votes are secret will also make a big difference I would suggest.
    Everyone on the payroll will have May's Deal #1 I expect.
  • TGOHF said:

    Watching Sky this morning there is an absence of ERG members - maybe they are in panic mode

    Perhaps they won't bother voting ....
    I think that is very unlikely
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1110477916775821312

    Jacob's waivering. The replies to his tweet might stiffen his resolve though.

    Too late.

    He should have led his fan club not incited and then pandered to their worst prejudices.
    If he switches to backing May's deal I will be glad not to be on the same side of this issue as him ;)
This discussion has been closed.