The decline in the number of self-reported leave voters in the sample over time is the most interesting thing here, and I think the interpretation of the top line depends on what is driving that. It can't all be down to the grim reaper (sorry Leavers, I am not celebrating it or putting it on a tea towel but your chaps do have a tendency to die). So is the survey failing to properly sample the population so that Leavers are under-represented? You'd assume they have tried their best to get a representative sample, and as I understand it these guys are good at this. So is it down to false recall? Some Leavers so embarrassed by the current shambles that they have forgotten they voted for it? If this is the explanation then could other samples that weight by Leave vs Remain be over-weighting the Leave voters? That's potentially very bad news for the Tories. Any theories as to what's going on?
I'd go with false recall. It's always harder to find people who recall supporting the losing side.
My mother is a case in point. She told me on referendum day she reluctantly voted Remain, worried about the implications of Brexit. Several times subsequently she has assured me she voted leave. We haven't spoken about it recently; I will have to see if she has switched her recall back again now.
Yeah I also think that is the most likely explanation, or at least the biggest factor. But don't regular polls weight by referendum vote? Isn't that a big problem if people systematically mis-remember how they voted? Is it possible to track people's recall over time in some of the panels, eg YouGov? (edited for typo).
YouGov asks people how they voted the day after an election, and remembers this subsequently. Since they occasionally ask again I reckon they could actually model false recall.
3 minutes more than they used to spend talking about Politics on the train I would say. The academics are so out of touch they make my point for me
Re "They all still think we're leaving on 29 March..."
There are going to be a lot of anecdotal reports from the weekend onwards along the lines of: "There you are see, all that fuss about chaos after we leave Europe and it's all fine!"
That is so true and really funny but sad at the same time
After listening to some of the debate from the HOC yesterday I turned to my wife and said
'Why listen to these incompetent mps acting like unruly children when we can have a wonderful time, intelligent chat and just utter joy with our grandchildren 5 and 7 who were with us'
From that time until now we have not listened or watched the news, had a great quiet evening, and waking up to the news that a coup is taking place in the HOC and ERG members pushing the panic button is funny if it was not serious. You could not make this up. The answer is in plain sight
This could be Mays chance to redeem herself with the public- to take a stance against the parliament trying to block brexit and ignore the manifesto the government was elected on and go to the country in a GE to get brexit delivered and PS - no death tax
The manifesto which lost her her majority. That manifesto?
The decline in the number of self-reported leave voters in the sample over time is the most interesting thing here, and I think the interpretation of the top line depends on what is driving that. It can't all be down to the grim reaper (sorry Leavers, I am not celebrating it or putting it on a tea towel but your chaps do have a tendency to die). So is the survey failing to properly sample the population so that Leavers are under-represented? You'd assume they have tried their best to get a representative sample, and as I understand it these guys are good at this. So is it down to false recall? Some Leavers so embarrassed by the current shambles that they have forgotten they voted for it? If this is the explanation then could other samples that weight by Leave vs Remain be over-weighting the Leave voters? That's potentially very bad news for the Tories. Any theories as to what's going on?
I'd go with false recall. It's always harder to find people who recall supporting the losing side.
My mother is a case in point. She told me on referendum day she reluctantly voted Remain, worried about the implications of Brexit. Several times subsequently she has assured me she voted leave. We haven't spoken about it recently; I will have to see if she has switched her recall back again now.
Yeah I also think that is the most likely explanation, or at least the biggest factor. But don't regular polls weight by referendum vote? Isn't that a big problem if people systematically mis-remember how they voted? Is it possible to track people's recall over time in some of the panels, eg YouGov? (edited for typo).
YouGov asks people how they voted the day after an election, and remembers this subsequently. Since they occasionally ask again I reckon they could actually model false recall.
I think that would be a very useful thing to do. The strongest possible indicator that someone has changed their mind is that they can't even remember holding the other opinion.
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
The decline in the number of self-reported leave voters in the sample over time is the most interesting thing here, and I think the interpretation of the top line depends on what is driving that. It can't all be down to the grim reaper (sorry Leavers, I am not celebrating it or putting it on a tea towel but your chaps do have a tendency to die). So is the survey failing to properly sample the population so that Leavers are under-represented? You'd assume they have tried their best to get a representative sample, and as I understand it these guys are good at this. So is it down to false recall? Some Leavers so embarrassed by the current shambles that they have forgotten they voted for it? If this is the explanation then could other samples that weight by Leave vs Remain be over-weighting the Leave voters? That's potentially very bad news for the Tories. Any theories as to what's going on?
I'd go with false recall. It's always harder to find people who recall supporting the losing side.
My mother is a case in point. She told me on referendum day she reluctantly voted Remain, worried about the implications of Brexit. Several times subsequently she has assured me she voted leave. We haven't spoken about it recently; I will have to see if she has switched her recall back again now.
Yeah I also think that is the most likely explanation, or at least the biggest factor. But don't regular polls weight by referendum vote? Isn't that a big problem if people systematically mis-remember how they voted? Is it possible to track people's recall over time in some of the panels, eg YouGov? (edited for typo).
YouGov asks people how they voted the day after an election, and remembers this subsequently. Since they occasionally ask again I reckon they could actually model false recall.
If you mean YouGov are using a panel, I doubt they will get a good model of false recall across the general electorate. If you know someone is noting your answer each time I think you'd be more inclined to remember, and stick to, the truth.
This could be Mays chance to redeem herself with the public- to take a stance against the parliament trying to block brexit and ignore the manifesto the government was elected on and go to the country in a GE to get brexit delivered and PS - no death tax
People seem to have forgotten that this is exactly what she tried in 2017. People didn't seem bothered about Brexit being blocked; in fact they quite liked the idea.
It's partly the change in demographics as Prof Curtis says but also the key lie told by the Brexiteers that 70 million Turks would be invading.
I remember well Nigel Lawson making the claim on Question Time and you could hear an audible intake of breath. It was in my opinion the single most effective lie in persuading the older not-too-politically-engaged-or well educated that it's better to be safe than sorry and vote Leave.
After listening to some of the debate from the HOC yesterday I turned to my wife and said
'Why listen to these incompetent mps acting like unruly children when we can have a wonderful time, intelligent chat and just utter joy with our grandchildren 5 and 7 who were with us'
From that time until now we have not listened or watched the news, had a great quiet evening, and waking up to the news that a coup is taking place in the HOC and ERG members pushing the panic button is funny if it was not serious. You could not make this up. The answer is in plain sight
This could be Mays chance to redeem herself with the public- to take a stance against the parliament trying to block brexit and ignore the manifesto the government was elected on and go to the country in a GE to get brexit delivered and PS - no death tax
People seem to have forgotten that this is exactly what she tried in 2017. People didn't seem bothered about Brexit being blocked; in fact they quite liked the idea.
I think this is often forgotten. MayDay warned the public that, unless they returned a Tory majority, Brexit would be blocked. They thought, ‘okay,’ - and duly deprived her of a majority.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
That is what such a betrayal will create the perfect storm for a trumpesque leader to emerge
We will have to make do with an anti-semite taking us to the promised land of Venezeula.
The high-pitched whining from well to-do Remainers as their world crashes and burns will only be audible to dogs and dolphins.
I'm sorry, but this kind of rubbish makes me really quite angry. I've been a Eurosceptic for decades, and the passage of time has only deepened that view. But if any Conservatives care so much about leaving an irritating, bureaucratic but ultimately harmless bloc that they're prepared to let the UK be Corbynized, then I have to ask ... are they really Conservatives at all?
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
The fact that women who normally sit on the train talking exclusively about last nights telly are now spending almost half that time talking politics means people are far more engaged, not that they aren't bothered!
Opinion polls never capture the like of the girls on the train you cited
Because they only exist in Scott's head.
I believe Scott's report. I've heard similar conversations at the hairdressers.
I'll tell you what I've heard, remainers who I work with - who, of course, think they know it all - showing as much ignorance about this issue as the girls in that anecdote.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
That is what such a betrayal will create the perfect storm for a trumpesque leader to emerge
We will have to make do with an anti-semite taking us to the promised land of Venezeula.
The high-pitched whining from well to-do Remainers as their world crashes and burns will only be audible to dogs and dolphins.
I'm sorry, but this kind of rubbish makes me really quite angry. I've been a Eurosceptic for decades, and the passage of time has only deepened that view. But if any Conservatives care so much about leaving an irritating, bureaucratic but ultimately harmless bloc that they're prepared to let the UK be Corbynized, then I have to ask ... are they really Conservatives at all?
Their hope is Boris or Raab or Mogg takes over as Tory leader and Leader of the Opposition on a hard Brexit ticket.
No Dealers would now clearly prefer to go into opposition with Corbyn PM pursuing BINO or EUref2 than stay in Government and support May's Deal it seems
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
That is what such a betrayal will create the perfect storm for a trumpesque leader to emerge
We already have him. His name is Jeremy Corbyn. And everything the Tories are doing is making his election as PM more likely.
This could be Mays chance to redeem herself with the public- to take a stance against the parliament trying to block brexit and ignore the manifesto the government was elected on and go to the country in a GE to get brexit delivered and PS - no death tax
People seem to have forgotten that this is exactly what she tried in 2017. People didn't seem bothered about Brexit being blocked; in fact they quite liked the idea.
I think this is often forgotten. MayDay warned the public that, unless they returned a Tory majority, Brexit would be blocked. They thought, ‘okay,’ - and duly deprived her of a majority.
Parliamentary democracy in action.
But the party they voted for in greater than expected numbers were saying they weren't going to block Brexit!
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
That is what such a betrayal will create the perfect storm for a trumpesque leader to emerge
We will have to make do with an anti-semite taking us to the promised land of Venezeula.
The high-pitched whining from well to-do Remainers as their world crashes and burns will only be audible to dogs and dolphins.
I'm sorry, but this kind of rubbish makes me really quite angry. I've been a Eurosceptic for decades, and the passage of time has only deepened that view. But if any Conservatives care so much about leaving an irritating, bureaucratic but ultimately harmless bloc that they're prepared to let the UK be Corbynized, then I have to ask ... are they really Conservatives at all?
Opinion polls never capture the like of the girls on the train you cited
No, but there will be an assumption baked-in to propensity to vote, I would hope. It’s when that silent assumption proves incorrect that unexpected results will happen. Will a change to Brexit (in whatever form) change that? Talk is cheap (I’ll never vote again, vote conservative/labour etc).
This could be Mays chance to redeem herself with the public- to take a stance against the parliament trying to block brexit and ignore the manifesto the government was elected on and go to the country in a GE to get brexit delivered and PS - no death tax
People seem to have forgotten that this is exactly what she tried in 2017. People didn't seem bothered about Brexit being blocked; in fact they quite liked the idea.
I think this is often forgotten. MayDay warned the public that, unless they returned a Tory majority, Brexit would be blocked. They thought, ‘okay,’ - and duly deprived her of a majority.
Parliamentary democracy in action.
But the party they voted for in greater than expected numbers were saying they weren't going to block Brexit!
They said they would oppose no deal and oppose May's Brexit. By a process of elimination what are you left with?
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
The fact that women who normally sit on the train talking exclusively about last nights telly are now spending almost half that time talking politics means people are far more engaged, not that they aren't bothered!
My wife not only didn’t know what the march was for she didn’t even know there was a march on at all.
Here at my office (in London) two colleagues have admitted going on it. There are around 80-90 people on my floor (east end).
It represents a radicalising of metropolitan urban Britain and the Remain middle classes.
Everyone else is either ignorant of or bored by it.
This could be Mays chance to redeem herself with the public- to take a stance against the parliament trying to block brexit and ignore the manifesto the government was elected on and go to the country in a GE to get brexit delivered and PS - no death tax
People seem to have forgotten that this is exactly what she tried in 2017. People didn't seem bothered about Brexit being blocked; in fact they quite liked the idea.
I think this is often forgotten. MayDay warned the public that, unless they returned a Tory majority, Brexit would be blocked. They thought, ‘okay,’ - and duly deprived her of a majority.
Parliamentary democracy in action.
But the party they voted for in greater than expected numbers were saying they weren't going to block Brexit!
They said they would oppose no deal and oppose May's Brexit. By a process of elimination what are you left with?
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
That is what such a betrayal will create the perfect storm for a trumpesque leader to emerge
We already have him. His name is Jeremy Corbyn. And everything the Tories are doing is making his election as PM more likely.
Corbyn is not Trump, he is Bernie Sanders, Boris or Farage are Trump.
We are heading for a Corbyn v Boris battle once May goes much as I think the US is heading for Trump v Sanders in 2020
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
I think this is very true.
It's one reason why I am sceptical about the 'riots on the streets' predictions if Brexit doesn't happen. I am not saying there won't be protests or that they don't have the potential to be disruptive but it will be the committed hard-core Brexiteers (plus, no doubt, some extreme bandwagonists) rather than the great mass of Leave voters who protest imo.
Opinion polls never capture the like of the girls on the train you cited
Because they only exist in Scott's head.
I believe Scott's report. I've heard similar conversations at the hairdressers.
I'll tell you what I've heard, remainers who I work with - who, of course, think they know it all - showing as much ignorance about this issue as the girls in that anecdote.
Indeed. For many it’s, ‘Farage and others like him support Brexit, I’m not like that and have lots of EU friends, so I’m anti Brexit’.
Nothing wrong with that, of course, but it’s not always based on deep-seated intelligence and a understanding of the inner workings of international geopolitics.
So what is the next stage in this farce? Presumably the Commons will vote for a second referendum or, at the least, a confirmatory referendum seeking approval of any deal that is done with an alternative of remain before departure? What will May do then?
Have the ERG worked out they've lost yet or is that still much for them to grasp? Idiots doesn't come close.
The two scenarios that seem to be rising in probability are May's deal, on the basis that the ERG and DUP finally smell the coffee, or a GE, on the basis that the clash between Parliament's preference and Government preference can't otherwise be resolved.
Problem with May's deal is that just as she wins over her extremists she is losing Labour and Tory remainer support. They now have alternatives to root for.
From here surely the DUP would want a softer, UK-wide Brexit that essentially takes the possibility of a separate status for Northern Ireland off the table - or no Brexit at all.
That said, I am now totally lost. There is no logic to any of this. All I do know is that I cannot think of another PM who has been so humiliated and emasculated, and remained in office.
There isn’t - and that is the direct consequence of May presenting a hung Parliament with a fait accompli, with barely the time to rubber stamp it, let alone make another choice.
I’ve said before that the only way out of this I can see is Norway, as it is the option which takes away the least from those who voted against Brexit, while still complying with the terms of the referendum vote. And it is a stable solution, which retains the potential for future movement in either direction, without requiring it.
I'll ask again - what is the mechanism for leaving Norway?
By negotiation. It wouldn't be easy, that's for sure, though that's a feature rather than a bug. That said, it's a treaty arrangement, and not a constitutional one, so simpler than our current predicament.
So as I expected, no "Article 50" equivalent. We can't just walk away from it when the voters wake up and go "You f*cking WHAT????"
Norway is a horror show waiting to open.
What international treaties of significance can we 'just walk away from' ? You are setting an absurd test.
And for someone prepared to contemplate No Deal (which I believe you are ?), it is a ridiculous critique.
This could be Mays chance to redeem herself with the public- to take a stance against the parliament trying to block brexit and ignore the manifesto the government was elected on and go to the country in a GE to get brexit delivered and PS - no death tax
People seem to have forgotten that this is exactly what she tried in 2017. People didn't seem bothered about Brexit being blocked; in fact they quite liked the idea.
I think this is often forgotten. MayDay warned the public that, unless they returned a Tory majority, Brexit would be blocked. They thought, ‘okay,’ - and duly deprived her of a majority.
Parliamentary democracy in action.
But the party they voted for in greater than expected numbers were saying they weren't going to block Brexit!
They said they would oppose no deal and oppose May's Brexit. By a process of elimination what are you left with?
Their deal
That's what they said "a Labour government" would deliver, but they didn't win.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
That is what such a betrayal will create the perfect storm for a trumpesque leader to emerge
We will have to make do with an anti-semite taking us to the promised land of Venezeula.
The high-pitched whining from well to-do Remainers as their world crashes and burns will only be audible to dogs and dolphins.
I'm sorry, but this kind of rubbish makes me really quite angry. I've been a Eurosceptic for decades, and the passage of time has only deepened that view. But if any Conservatives care so much about leaving an irritating, bureaucratic but ultimately harmless bloc that they're prepared to let the UK be Corbynized, then I have to ask ... are they really Conservatives at all?
You obviously belong to a different Conservative Party to the obsessive flapping white coats most of us have been watching for years. Casino Royale perhaps being the archetype.
There are, though, three good things about Brexit.
1. It has shown us in vivid Technicolour how utterly stupid and pig-ignorant many of our MPs are. 2. Katya Adler. 3. All those pictures of Donald Tusk when younger showing what a hottie he was.
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
I think this is very true.
It's one reason why I am sceptical about the 'riots on the streets' predictions if Brexit doesn't happen. I am not saying there won't be protests or that they don't have the potential to be disruptive but it will be the committed hard-core Brexiteers (plus, no doubt, some extreme bandwagonists) rather than the great mass of Leave voters who protest imo.
It was the committed core that drove the vote in the first place. There’s now a hardcore minority of between 30-40% of the electorate who favour a No Deal Brexit.
That’s more than big enough to make it a very major feature in UK politics for the foreseeable future.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
That is what such a betrayal will create the perfect storm for a trumpesque leader to emerge
We already have him. His name is Jeremy Corbyn. And everything the Tories are doing is making his election as PM more likely.
Corbyn is not Trump, he is Bernie Sanders, Boris or Farage are Trump.
We are heading for a Corbyn v Boris battle once May goes much as I think the US is heading for Trump v Sanders in 2020
I’m neither remaining a member nor voting Conservative if Boris wins.
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
The fact that women who normally sit on the train talking exclusively about last nights telly are now spending almost half that time talking politics means people are far more engaged, not that they aren't bothered!
My wife not only didn’t know what the march was for she didn’t even know there was a march on at all.
Here at my office (in London) two colleagues have admitted going on it. There are around 80-90 people on my floor (east end).
It represents a radicalising of metropolitan urban Britain and the Remain middle classes.
Everyone else is either ignorant of or bored by it.
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
I think this is very true.
It's one reason why I am sceptical about the 'riots on the streets' predictions if Brexit doesn't happen. I am not saying there won't be protests or that they don't have the potential to be disruptive but it will be the committed hard-core Brexiteers (plus, no doubt, some extreme bandwagonists) rather than the great mass of Leave voters who protest imo.
It was the committed core that drove the vote in the first place. There’s now a hardcore minority of between 30-40% of the electorate who favour a No Deal Brexit.
That’s more than big enough to make it a very major feature in UK politics for the foreseeable future.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
That is what such a betrayal will create the perfect storm for a trumpesque leader to emerge
We already have him. His name is Jeremy Corbyn. And everything the Tories are doing is making his election as PM more likely.
Corbyn is not Trump, he is Bernie Sanders, Boris or Farage are Trump.
We are heading for a Corbyn v Boris battle once May goes much as I think the US is heading for Trump v Sanders in 2020
I disagree. Corbyn would like to think he is a wise older guy bringing much needed common-sense but in reality he has a lot in common with Trump. I may do a header on this.
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
I think this is very true.
It's one reason why I am sceptical about the 'riots on the streets' predictions if Brexit doesn't happen. I am not saying there won't be protests or that they don't have the potential to be disruptive but it will be the committed hard-core Brexiteers (plus, no doubt, some extreme bandwagonists) rather than the great mass of Leave voters who protest imo.
It was the committed core that drove the vote in the first place. There’s now a hardcore minority of between 30-40% of the electorate who favour a No Deal Brexit.
That’s more than big enough to make it a very major feature in UK politics for the foreseeable future.
Rather than a hardcore, they could just represent people suffering from Brexit burnout, and if we ended up remaining, most of them might never want to hear the word Brexit again.
This could be Mays chance to redeem herself with the public- to take a stance against the parliament trying to block brexit and ignore the manifesto the government was elected on and go to the country in a GE to get brexit delivered and PS - no death tax
People seem to have forgotten that this is exactly what she tried in 2017. People didn't seem bothered about Brexit being blocked; in fact they quite liked the idea.
I think this is often forgotten. MayDay warned the public that, unless they returned a Tory majority, Brexit would be blocked. They thought, ‘okay,’ - and duly deprived her of a majority.
Parliamentary democracy in action.
But the party they voted for in greater than expected numbers were saying they weren't going to block Brexit!
They said they would oppose no deal and oppose May's Brexit. By a process of elimination what are you left with?
Their deal
That's what they said "a Labour government" would deliver, but they didn't win.
Yes, that's why it's incorrect to say that May losing her majority was because people wanted to scupper Brexit.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
That is what such a betrayal will create the perfect storm for a trumpesque leader to emerge
We already have him. His name is Jeremy Corbyn. And everything the Tories are doing is making his election as PM more likely.
Corbyn is not Trump, he is Bernie Sanders, Boris or Farage are Trump.
We are heading for a Corbyn v Boris battle once May goes much as I think the US is heading for Trump v Sanders in 2020
I’m neither remaining a member nor voting Conservative if Boris wins.
Well as Boris now leads every poll of Tory members and Tory voters as to who they want as next leader better make other plans then
There are, though, three good things about Brexit.
1. It has shown us in vivid Technicolour how utterly stupid and pig-ignorant many of our MPs are. 2. Katya Adler. 3. All those pictures of Donald Tusk when younger showing what a hottie he was.
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
I think this is very true.
It's one reason why I am sceptical about the 'riots on the streets' predictions if Brexit doesn't happen. I am not saying there won't be protests or that they don't have the potential to be disruptive but it will be the committed hard-core Brexiteers (plus, no doubt, some extreme bandwagonists) rather than the great mass of Leave voters who protest imo.
It was the committed core that drove the vote in the first place. There’s now a hardcore minority of between 30-40% of the electorate who favour a No Deal Brexit.
That’s more than big enough to make it a very major feature in UK politics for the foreseeable future.
I'm not convinced the 'hardcore' is anywhere near that large. A large number of those favouring No Deal just want the whole thing over and believe it to be a simple solution, I suspect.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
That is what such a betrayal will create the perfect storm for a trumpesque leader to emerge
We already have him. His name is Jeremy Corbyn. And everything the Tories are doing is making his election as PM more likely.
Corbyn is not Trump, he is Bernie Sanders, Boris or Farage are Trump.
We are heading for a Corbyn v Boris battle once May goes much as I think the US is heading for Trump v Sanders in 2020
I disagree. Corbyn would like to think he is a wise older guy bringing much needed common-sense but in reality he has a lot in common with Trump. I may do a header on this.
Corbyn is not Trump, he is a populist like Trump yes but a leftist one like Sanders.
Boris is the right-wing British populist equivalent of Trump
The fact that women who normally sit on the train talking exclusively about last nights telly are now spending almost half that time talking politics means people are far more engaged, not that they aren't bothered!
They didn't sound very interested, though, did they? Would you really say they were "engaged" in Brexit?
There are, though, three good things about Brexit.
1. It has shown us in vivid Technicolour how utterly stupid and pig-ignorant many of our MPs are. 2. Katya Adler. 3. All those pictures of Donald Tusk when younger showing what a hottie he was.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
That is what such a betrayal will create the perfect storm for a trumpesque leader to emerge
We already have him. His name is Jeremy Corbyn. And everything the Tories are doing is making his election as PM more likely.
Corbyn is not Trump, he is Bernie Sanders, Boris or Farage are Trump.
We are heading for a Corbyn v Boris battle once May goes much as I think the US is heading for Trump v Sanders in 2020
I’m neither remaining a member nor voting Conservative if Boris wins.
The fact that women who normally sit on the train talking exclusively about last nights telly are now spending almost half that time talking politics means people are far more engaged, not that they aren't bothered!
They didn't sound very interested, though, did they? Would you really say they were "engaged" in Brexit?
Relative to before the referendum, by an astronomical factor, yes. I had never heard most people I know talk about politics at all before 2016
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
I think this is very true.
It's one reason why I am sceptical about the 'riots on the streets' predictions if Brexit doesn't happen. I am not saying there won't be protests or that they don't have the potential to be disruptive but it will be the committed hard-core Brexiteers (plus, no doubt, some extreme bandwagonists) rather than the great mass of Leave voters who protest imo.
It was the committed core that drove the vote in the first place. There’s now a hardcore minority of between 30-40% of the electorate who favour a No Deal Brexit.
That’s more than big enough to make it a very major feature in UK politics for the foreseeable future.
I'm not convinced the 'hardcore' is anywhere near that large. A large number of those favouring No Deal just want the whole thing over and believe it to be a simple solution, I suspect.
I think about 25-30% are hardcore no-dealers. If you compare the results of various other polls, the others in that portion seem to be comprised of both the fatigued and those unsure what no-deal is, with some thinking that it is Remain.
There are, though, three good things about Brexit.
1. It has shown us in vivid Technicolour how utterly stupid and pig-ignorant many of our MPs are. 2. Katya Adler. 3. All those pictures of Donald Tusk when younger showing what a hottie he was.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
That is what such a betrayal will create the perfect storm for a trumpesque leader to emerge
We will have to make do with an anti-semite taking us to the promised land of Venezeula.
The high-pitched whining from well to-do Remainers as their world crashes and burns will only be audible to dogs and dolphins.
I'm sorry, but this kind of rubbish makes me really quite angry. I've been a Eurosceptic for decades, and the passage of time has only deepened that view. But if any Conservatives care so much about leaving an irritating, bureaucratic but ultimately harmless bloc that they're prepared to let the UK be Corbynized, then I have to ask ... are they really Conservatives at all?
Hold that thought. Suppose the Brexiteers are right that Britain will be hundreds of billions of pounds better off out. Or that the Remoaners are right that Brexit will make us that much worse off.
Either way, for the true believers on either side, the sums involved would pay several times over for Corbyn's programme of nationalising jam production and free manhole covers for every ratepayer. And the same sort of argument could be made over sovereignty. Those who genuinely believe Britain will be a vassal state under the yoke of a Brussels dictator will see this as even worse than a Labour victory because at least Corbyn is British and we can vote him out in five years. We can't do that with Tusk or Juncker.
One of the reasons we are in this mess is the extremists on both sides really do believe what they say.
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
I think this is very true.
It's one reason why I am sceptical about the 'riots on the streets' predictions if Brexit doesn't happen. I am not saying there won't be protests or that they don't have the potential to be disruptive but it will be the committed hard-core Brexiteers (plus, no doubt, some extreme bandwagonists) rather than the great mass of Leave voters who protest imo.
I would not expect riots in the streets at all. The effects will be longer term. For one thing, I'd expect the ongoing deselection of Conservative MP's whose commitment to Brexit is suspected to be less than 100%. Which would be unfair, given how much of the problem is down to MP's like Mark Francois.
Just back from a 12 day P&O cruise to the Canaries. I'd guess the demographic of the ship (average age 60+, mainly middle class, mostly from small towns across the UK) was 75% leave. We always like to share tables at in the restaurants and meet a lot of interesting (and some boring) people through the cruise.
Brexit has never got a mention on previous cruises but this time it was raised quite often, usually by one person on the table saying something like: "I can't understand why we just can't leave - we did fine in 1970".
What surprised me is that this was often met with embarrassed silence or mumblings. Also quite a few people saying things like: "It's such a mess", "We should just forget the whole thing", "I can't understand why we're bothering" (to which the rejoiner was "well you voted for it!")
I am sure it's true that the vast majority outside our PB bubble are thoroughly fed up to the back teeth with Brexit. I think many just want it done or dropped and don't really care much which.
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
I think this is very true.
It's one reason why I am sceptical about the 'riots on the streets' predictions if Brexit doesn't happen. I am not saying there won't be protests or that they don't have the potential to be disruptive but it will be the committed hard-core Brexiteers (plus, no doubt, some extreme bandwagonists) rather than the great mass of Leave voters who protest imo.
It was the committed core that drove the vote in the first place. There’s now a hardcore minority of between 30-40% of the electorate who favour a No Deal Brexit.
That’s more than big enough to make it a very major feature in UK politics for the foreseeable future.
And a Boris led Tories core vote
When will you accept Boris is toxic and core votes do not achieve majority government, especially when the so called core vote are largely UKIP in disguise
So what is the next stage in this farce? Presumably the Commons will vote for a second referendum or, at the least, a confirmatory referendum seeking approval of any deal that is done with an alternative of remain before departure? What will May do then?
Have the ERG worked out they've lost yet or is that still much for them to grasp? Idiots doesn't come close.
The two scenarios that seem to be rising in probability are May's deal, on the basis that the ERG and DUP finally smell the coffee, or a GE, on the basis that the clash between Parliament's preference and Government preference can't otherwise be resolved.
Problem with May's deal is that just as she wins over her extremists she is losing Labour and Tory remainer support. They now have alternatives to root for.
From here surely the DUP would want a softer, UK-wide Brexit that essentially takes the possibility of a separate status for Northern Ireland off the table - or no Brexit at all.
That said, I am now totally lost. There is no logic to any of this. All I do know is that I cannot think of another PM who has been so humiliated and emasculated, and remained in office.
There isn’t - and that is the direct consequence of May presenting a hung Parliament with a fait accompli, with barely the time to rubber stamp it, let alone make another choice.
I’ve said before that the only way out of this I can see is Norway, as it is the option which takes away the least from those who voted against Brexit, while still complying with the terms of the referendum vote. And it is a stable solution, which retains the potential for future movement in either direction, without requiring it.
I'll ask again - what is the mechanism for leaving Norway?
I'll answer again: Article 127 of the EEA Agreement.
"Each Contracting Party may withdraw from this Agreement provided it gives at least twelve months' notice in writing to the other Contracting Parties. Immediately after the notification of the intended withdrawal, the other Contracting Parties shall convene a diplomatic conference in order to envisage the necessary modifications to bring to the Agreement."
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
I think this is very true.
It's one reason why I am sceptical about the 'riots on the streets' predictions if Brexit doesn't happen. I am not saying there won't be protests or that they don't have the potential to be disruptive but it will be the committed hard-core Brexiteers (plus, no doubt, some extreme bandwagonists) rather than the great mass of Leave voters who protest imo.
It was the committed core that drove the vote in the first place. There’s now a hardcore minority of between 30-40% of the electorate who favour a No Deal Brexit.
That’s more than big enough to make it a very major feature in UK politics for the foreseeable future.
I'm not convinced the 'hardcore' is anywhere near that large. A large number of those favouring No Deal just want the whole thing over and believe it to be a simple solution, I suspect.
I think about 25-30% are hardcore no-dealers. If you compare the results of various other polls, the others in that portion seem to be comprised of both the fatigued and those unsure what no-deal is, with some thinking that it is Remain.
I think the number of no-dealers has been massively grown by the language of the deal's opponents. If your hitherto moderate-ish Tory MP has been calling it "worse than no deal", "vassalage" etc for the past 5 months... the natural reaction when they change their mind is "you bloody part-timer". I've seen a lot of that (and worse) under the Tweets of switching MPs in recent days. They made their bed...
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
I think this is very true.
It's one reason why I am sceptical about the 'riots on the streets' predictions if Brexit doesn't happen. I am not saying there won't be protests or that they don't have the potential to be disruptive but it will be the committed hard-core Brexiteers (plus, no doubt, some extreme bandwagonists) rather than the great mass of Leave voters who protest imo.
I would not expect riots in the streets at all. The effects will be longer term. For one thing, I'd expect the ongoing deselection of Conservative MP's whose commitment to Brexit is suspected to be less than 100%. Which would be unfair, given how much of the problem is down to MP's like Mark Francois.
You may be right. One problem we have is membership of the two main parties tends to the extremists. That might resolve itself in the long-term if the policies become more extreme, leaving a clear gap for a centre party, although FPTP is a brake on that of course.
Strange to think it's not that long ago that we used to hear the complaint that the parties are all the same.
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
I think this is very true.
It's one reason why I am sceptical about the 'riots on the streets' predictions if Brexit doesn't happen. I am not saying there won't be protests or that they don't have the potential to be disruptive but it will be the committed hard-core Brexiteers (plus, no doubt, some extreme bandwagonists) rather than the great mass of Leave voters who protest imo.
It was the committed core that drove the vote in the first place. There’s now a hardcore minority of between 30-40% of the electorate who favour a No Deal Brexit.
That’s more than big enough to make it a very major feature in UK politics for the foreseeable future.
And a Boris led Tories core vote
When will you accept Boris is toxic and core votes do not achieve majority government, especially when the so called core vote are largely UKIP in disguise
And his lack of support from mainstream Tory MPs has pushed him to court the more extreme fringe in Parliament.
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
The fact that women who normally sit on the train talking exclusively about last nights telly are now spending almost half that time talking politics means people are far more engaged, not that they aren't bothered!
My wife not only didn’t know what the march was for she didn’t even know there was a march on at all.
Here at my office (in London) two colleagues have admitted going on it. There are around 80-90 people on my floor (east end).
It represents a radicalising of metropolitan urban Britain and the Remain middle classes.
Everyone else is either ignorant of or bored by it.
How many people actively participated in the French Revolution? History is made by the motivated minority while the rest of us just get on with our lives.
There are, though, three good things about Brexit.
1. It has shown us in vivid Technicolour how utterly stupid and pig-ignorant many of our MPs are. 2. Katya Adler. 3. All those pictures of Donald Tusk when younger showing what a hottie he was.
Absolutely agree on 1 and 2
Cannot comment on Tusk
L: Young Rees-Mogg about to flagellate himself before vespers. R: Young Tusk protesting against Soviet totalitarianism on the streets of Gdansk.
Just back from a 12 day P&O cruise to the Canaries. I'd guess the demographic of the ship (average age 60+, mainly middle class, mostly from small towns across the UK) was 75% leave. We always like to share tables at in the restaurants and meet a lot of interesting (and some boring) people through the cruise.
Brexit has never got a mention on previous cruises but this time it was raised quite often, usually by one person on the table saying something like: "I can't understand why we just can't leave - we did fine in 1970".
What surprised me is that this was often met with embarrassed silence or mumblings. Also quite a few people saying things like: "It's such a mess", "We should just forget the whole thing", "I can't understand why we're bothering" (to which the rejoiner was "well you voted for it!")
I am sure it's true that the vast majority outside our PB bubble are thoroughly fed up to the back teeth with Brexit. I think many just want it done or dropped and don't really care much which.
As I say only anecdotal.
The notion that Brexit is somehow a time machine back to an imagined past is one of its most toxic elements.
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
I think this is very true.
It's one reason why I am sceptical about the 'riots on the streets' predictions if Brexit doesn't happen. I am not saying there won't be protests or that they don't have the potential to be disruptive but it will be the committed hard-core Brexiteers (plus, no doubt, some extreme bandwagonists) rather than the great mass of Leave voters who protest imo.
It was the committed core that drove the vote in the first place. There’s now a hardcore minority of between 30-40% of the electorate who favour a No Deal Brexit.
That’s more than big enough to make it a very major feature in UK politics for the foreseeable future.
27% according to this. Bear in mind also that that 27% will include some on the hard right and some hard left who would find it difficult to coalesce around a common party.
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
I think this is very true.
It's one reason why I am sceptical about the 'riots on the streets' predictions if Brexit doesn't happen. I am not saying there won't be protests or that they don't have the potential to be disruptive but it will be the committed hard-core Brexiteers (plus, no doubt, some extreme bandwagonists) rather than the great mass of Leave voters who protest imo.
I would not expect riots in the streets at all. The effects will be longer term. For one thing, I'd expect the ongoing deselection of Conservative MP's whose commitment to Brexit is suspected to be less than 100%. Which would be unfair, given how much of the problem is down to MP's like Mark Francois.
You may be right. One problem we have is membership of the two main parties tends to the extremists. That might resolve itself in the long-term if the policies become more extreme, leaving a clear gap for a centre party, although FPTP is a brake on that of course.
Strange to think it's not that long ago that we used to hear the complaint that the parties are all the same.
They used to be the same in different ways. Now they are different in the same way.
Just back from a 12 day P&O cruise to the Canaries. I'd guess the demographic of the ship (average age 60+, mainly middle class, mostly from small towns across the UK) was 75% leave. We always like to share tables at in the restaurants and meet a lot of interesting (and some boring) people through the cruise.
Brexit has never got a mention on previous cruises but this time it was raised quite often, usually by one person on the table saying something like: "I can't understand why we just can't leave - we did fine in 1970".
What surprised me is that this was often met with embarrassed silence or mumblings. Also quite a few people saying things like: "It's such a mess", "We should just forget the whole thing", "I can't understand why we're bothering" (to which the rejoiner was "well you voted for it!")
I am sure it's true that the vast majority outside our PB bubble are thoroughly fed up to the back teeth with Brexit. I think many just want it done or dropped and don't really care much which.
As I say only anecdotal.
The notion that Brexit is somehow a time machine back to an imagined past is one of its most toxic elements.
I would agree many brexiteers are living in days long past
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
I think this is very true.
It's one reason why I am sceptical about the 'riots on the streets' predictions if Brexit doesn't happen. I am not saying there won't be protests or that they don't have the potential to be disruptive but it will be the committed hard-core Brexiteers (plus, no doubt, some extreme bandwagonists) rather than the great mass of Leave voters who protest imo.
It was the committed core that drove the vote in the first place. There’s now a hardcore minority of between 30-40% of the electorate who favour a No Deal Brexit.
That’s more than big enough to make it a very major feature in UK politics for the foreseeable future.
27% according to this. Bear in mind also that that 27% will include some on the hard right and some hard left who would find it difficult to coalesce around a common party.
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
I think this is very true.
It's one reason why I am sceptical about the 'riots on the streets' predictions if Brexit doesn't happen. I am not saying there won't be protests or that they don't have the potential to be disruptive but it will be the committed hard-core Brexiteers (plus, no doubt, some extreme bandwagonists) rather than the great mass of Leave voters who protest imo.
It was the committed core that drove the vote in the first place. There’s now a hardcore minority of between 30-40% of the electorate who favour a No Deal Brexit.
That’s more than big enough to make it a very major feature in UK politics for the foreseeable future.
I'm not convinced the 'hardcore' is anywhere near that large. A large number of those favouring No Deal just want the whole thing over and believe it to be a simple solution, I suspect.
I think about 25-30% are hardcore no-dealers. If you compare the results of various other polls, the others in that portion seem to be comprised of both the fatigued and those unsure what no-deal is, with some thinking that it is Remain.
You can get No Deal up to nearly 50% in polls, depending how you frame the question.
But, I'd say it's the *preferred* outcome of about 25%. More people prefer it than prefer May's deal, but far more regard May's deal as second-best, as opposed to No Deal or Remain.
There are, though, three good things about Brexit.
1. It has shown us in vivid Technicolour how utterly stupid and pig-ignorant many of our MPs are. 2. Katya Adler. 3. All those pictures of Donald Tusk when younger showing what a hottie he was.
Absolutely agree on 1 and 2
Cannot comment on Tusk
L: Young Rees-Mogg about to flagellate himself before vespers. R: Young Tusk protesting against Soviet totalitarianism on the streets of Gdansk.
That haunted and distanced photo of Rees-Mogg suddenly makes me feel as if I understand something a bit better.
I see we're back to gleeful predictions of the rise of the far right. Because of there's one thing we know about the far right, it's that it you give them what they want they'll calm down, commend you for being so reasonable, and go away, right?
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
That is what such a betrayal will create the perfect storm for a trumpesque leader to emerge
We will have to make do with an anti-semite taking us to the promised land of Venezeula.
The high-pitched whining from well to-do Remainers as their world crashes and burns will only be audible to dogs and dolphins.
I'm sorry, but this kind of rubbish makes me really quite angry. I've been a Eurosceptic for decades, and the passage of time has only deepened that view. But if any Conservatives care so much about leaving an irritating, bureaucratic but ultimately harmless bloc that they're prepared to let the UK be Corbynized, then I have to ask ... are they really Conservatives at all?
Hold that thought. Suppose the Brexiteers are right that Britain will be hundreds of billions of pounds better off out. Or that the Remoaners are right that Brexit will make us that much worse off.
Either way, for the true believers on either side, the sums involved would pay several times over for Corbyn's programme of nationalising jam production and free manhole covers for every ratepayer. And the same sort of argument could be made over sovereignty. Those who genuinely believe Britain will be a vassal state under the yoke of a Brussels dictator will see this as even worse than a Labour victory because at least Corbyn is British and we can vote him out in five years. We can't do that with Tusk or Juncker.
One of the reasons we are in this mess is the extremists on both sides really do believe what they say.
Just back from a 12 day P&O cruise to the Canaries. I'd guess the demographic of the ship (average age 60+, mainly middle class, mostly from small towns across the UK) was 75% leave. We always like to share tables at in the restaurants and meet a lot of interesting (and some boring) people through the cruise.
Brexit has never got a mention on previous cruises but this time it was raised quite often, usually by one person on the table saying something like: "I can't understand why we just can't leave - we did fine in 1970".
What surprised me is that this was often met with embarrassed silence or mumblings. Also quite a few people saying things like: "It's such a mess", "We should just forget the whole thing", "I can't understand why we're bothering" (to which the rejoiner was "well you voted for it!")
I am sure it's true that the vast majority outside our PB bubble are thoroughly fed up to the back teeth with Brexit. I think many just want it done or dropped and don't really care much which.
As I say only anecdotal.
The notion that Brexit is somehow a time machine back to an imagined past is one of its most toxic elements.
I would agree many brexiteers are living in days long past
How long will it be before Brexiteer is generally held to be a derogatory term? (cf Anarchist, Trot, Fascist etc. all of which started off as badges of pride for the followers IIRC)
We will know when it's happened because The Guardian will start using the term freely; currently they avoid it as giving Leavers too romantic an air (Brexiteer - Musketeer).
The decline in the number of self-reported leave voters in the sample over time is the most interesting thing here, and I think the interpretation of the top line depends on what is driving that. It can't all be down to the grim reaper (sorry Leavers, I am not celebrating it or putting it on a tea towel but your chaps do have a tendency to die). So is the survey failing to properly sample the population so that Leavers are under-represented? You'd assume they have tried their best to get a representative sample, and as I understand it these guys are good at this. So is it down to false recall? Some Leavers so embarrassed by the current shambles that they have forgotten they voted for it? If this is the explanation then could other samples that weight by Leave vs Remain be over-weighting the Leave voters? That's potentially very bad news for the Tories. Any theories as to what's going on?
I'd go with false recall. It's always harder to find people who recall supporting the losing side.
My mother is a case in point. She told me on referendum day she reluctantly voted Remain, worried about the implications of Brexit. Several times subsequently she has assured me she voted leave. We haven't spoken about it recently; I will have to see if she has switched her recall back again now.
Yeah I also think that is the most likely explanation, or at least the biggest factor. But don't regular polls weight by referendum vote? Isn't that a big problem if people systematically mis-remember how they voted? Is it possible to track people's recall over time in some of the panels, eg YouGov? (edited for typo).
YouGov asks people how they voted the day after an election, and remembers this subsequently. Since they occasionally ask again I reckon they could actually model false recall.
If you mean YouGov are using a panel, I doubt they will get a good model of false recall across the general electorate. If you know someone is noting your answer each time I think you'd be more inclined to remember, and stick to, the truth.
Certainly YouGov risk having a panel that is more politically aware than average. Although the inducement to take part is the 50p you get paid for each survey, and the large majority of surveys are of the type that rank different types of crisps and the like. A lot of political types are going to get bored with that.
On one of my forays into Brexitania. Got involved in a debate about how ashamed everyone is with Britain's politicians. Managed to escape without revealing my Remain vote.
There are, though, three good things about Brexit.
1. It has shown us in vivid Technicolour how utterly stupid and pig-ignorant many of our MPs are. 2. Katya Adler. 3. All those pictures of Donald Tusk when younger showing what a hottie he was.
Absolutely agree on 1 and 2
Cannot comment on Tusk
L: Young Rees-Mogg about to flagellate himself before vespers. R: Young Tusk protesting against Soviet totalitarianism on the streets of Gdansk.
That haunted and distanced photo of Rees-Mogg suddenly makes me feel as if I understand something a bit better.
The pre-lunch vodka intake of hairdressers in the Windsor and Eton area? Even if nanny cut JRM's hair, how on earth does he end up with a fringe two inches lower on one side?
There are, though, three good things about Brexit.
1. It has shown us in vivid Technicolour how utterly stupid and pig-ignorant many of our MPs are. 2. Katya Adler. 3. All those pictures of Donald Tusk when younger showing what a hottie he was.
Absolutely agree on 1 and 2
Cannot comment on Tusk
L: Young Rees-Mogg about to flagellate himself before vespers. R: Young Tusk protesting against Soviet totalitarianism on the streets of Gdansk.
That haunted and distanced photo of Rees-Mogg suddenly makes me feel as if I understand something a bit better.
Reminded me of The Midwich Cuckoos for some reason. Going to have to read that one again sometime.
So how would everyone fill out their indicitive ballots ?
6 options I can see that have some sort of support in the house:
Revoke {2nd referendum/People's vote/May's deal subject to ratification by the public} <- All essentially identical Common Market 2.0 May's deal + Corbyn's customs union May's deal No Deal
I'd possibly go
1) Common Market 2.0 2) May's deal 3) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union 4) 2nd Ref 5) No deal 6) Revocation
There's a clear enough dividing line between the top 3 and bottom 3 options for me.
On one of my forays into Brexitania. Got involved in a debate about how ashamed everyone is with Britain's politicians. Managed to escape without revealing my Remain vote.
Well done. They probably sussed you though due to your lack of "why can't we just leave tomorrow" interventions.
If Letwin does go with some form of preference voting, it should be a requirement that a ballot ranks all of the available options, otherwise it is entirely invalidated. That would force everyone to either put it all on the public record or count themselves out of the process altogether.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
That is what such a betrayal will create the perfect storm for a trumpesque leader to emerge
We already have him. His name is Jeremy Corbyn. And everything the Tories are doing is making his election as PM more likely.
Corbyn is not Trump, he is Bernie Sanders, Boris or Farage are Trump.
We are heading for a Corbyn v Boris battle once May goes much as I think the US is heading for Trump v Sanders in 2020
I think this is grossly unfair to Bernie Sanders.
At some point, the USA needs a president who will bring them into the developed world when it comes to universal healthcare, paid holiday and maternity leave. Perhaps Bernie will be the one.
There's a distinction between those MP's who are trying to produce a form of Brexit (Boles, Letwin) and those who are trying to prevent Brexit (Cooper, Grieve, Benn) but this will probably not be apparent to the public.
There are, though, three good things about Brexit.
1. It has shown us in vivid Technicolour how utterly stupid and pig-ignorant many of our MPs are. 2. Katya Adler. 3. All those pictures of Donald Tusk when younger showing what a hottie he was.
Absolutely agree on 1 and 2
Cannot comment on Tusk
L: Young Rees-Mogg about to flagellate himself before vespers. R: Young Tusk protesting against Soviet totalitarianism on the streets of Gdansk.
That haunted and distanced photo of Rees-Mogg suddenly makes me feel as if I understand something a bit better.
The pre-lunch vodka intake of hairdressers in the Windsor and Eton area? Even if nanny cut JRM's hair, how on earth does he end up with a fringe two inches lower on one side?
Kenneth Widmerpool to the life, even down to the weird overcoat.
If Letwin does go with some form of preference voting, it should be a requirement that a ballot ranks all of the available options, otherwise it is entirely invalidated. That would force everyone to either put it all on the public record or count themselves out of the process altogether.
I suspect May would choose the latter
Nonsense. If someone sticks up 1) No Deal for instance then you simply discard the ballot after the first round if it loses. Any voting system rewards those who make more preferences anyway.
If Letwin does go with some form of preference voting, it should be a requirement that a ballot ranks all of the available options, otherwise it is entirely invalidated. That would force everyone to either put it all on the public record or count themselves out of the process altogether.
I suspect May would choose the latter
Nonsense. If someone sticks up 1) No Deal for instance then you simply discard the ballot after the first round if it loses.
So how would everyone fill out their indicitive ballots ?
6 options I can see that have some sort of support in the house:
Revoke {2nd referendum/People's vote/May's deal subject to ratification by the public} <- All essentially identical Common Market 2.0 May's deal + Corbyn's customs union May's deal No Deal
I'd possibly go
1) Common Market 2.0 2) May's deal 3) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union 4) 2nd Ref 5) No deal 6) Revocation
There's a clear enough dividing line between the top 3 and bottom 3 options for me.</p>
Good question. I'd go:
1) 2nd Ref 2) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union 3) Common Market 2.0 (I think - tbh not entirely sure how this compares with 2*) 4) May's deal 5) Revocation 6) No deal
There's a distinction between those MP's who are trying to produce a form of Brexit (Boles, Letwin) and those who are trying to prevent Brexit (Cooper, Grieve, Benn) but this will probably not be apparent to the public.
A factor that a lot of comments (such as the train conversation report below) don't take into account is that an awful lot of people aren't really interested in Brexit and never have been. They voted when asked, without much enthusiasm either way. They now see that it's important and that the Government and Parliament are faffing about, so they feel irritated, but they still can't be bothered to weigh up Norway vs Canada vs Common Market 2, or consider the difference between a Meaningful Vote and an Indicative Vote.
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
I think this is very true.
It's one reason why I am sceptical about the 'riots on the streets' predictions if Brexit doesn't happen. I am not saying there won't be protests or that they don't have the potential to be disruptive but it will be the committed hard-core Brexiteers (plus, no doubt, some extreme bandwagonists) rather than the great mass of Leave voters who protest imo.
It was the committed core that drove the vote in the first place. There’s now a hardcore minority of between 30-40% of the electorate who favour a No Deal Brexit.
That’s more than big enough to make it a very major feature in UK politics for the foreseeable future.
27% according to this. Bear in mind also that that 27% will include some on the hard right and some hard left who would find it difficult to coalesce around a common party.
So what is the next stage in this farce? Presumably the Commons will vote for a second referendum or, at the least, a confirmatory referendum seeking approval of any deal that is done with an alternative of remain before departure? What will May do then?
Have the ERG worked out they've lost yet or is that still much for them to grasp? Idiots doesn't come close.
The two scenarios that seem to be rising in probability are May's deal, on the basis that the ERG and DUP finally smell the coffee, or a GE, on the basis that the clash between Parliament's preference and Government preference can't otherwise be resolved.
Problem with May's deal is that just as she wins over her extremists she is losing Labour and Tory remainer support. They now have alternatives to root for.
From here surely the DUP would want a softer, UK-wide Brexit that essentially takes the possibility of a separate status for Northern Ireland off the table - or no Brexit at all.
That said, I am now totally lost. There is no logic to any of this. All I do know is that I cannot think of another PM who has been so humiliated and emasculated, and remained in office.
There isn’t - and that is the direct consequence of May presenting a hung Parliament with a fait accompli, with barely the time to rubber stamp it, let alone make another choice.
I’ve said before that the only way out of this I can see is Norway, as it is the option which takes away the least from those who voted against Brexit, while still complying with the terms of the referendum vote. And it is a stable solution, which retains the potential for future movement in either direction, without requiring it.
I'll ask again - what is the mechanism for leaving Norway?
By negotiation. It wouldn't be easy, that's for sure, though that's a feature rather than a bug. That said, it's a treaty arrangement, and not a constitutional one, so simpler than our current predicament.
So as I expected, no "Article 50" equivalent. We can't just walk away from it when the voters wake up and go "You f*cking WHAT????"
Norway is a horror show waiting to open.
Nope. There is an Article 50 equivalent: Article 127. Twelve months notice.
If Letwin does go with some form of preference voting, it should be a requirement that a ballot ranks all of the available options, otherwise it is entirely invalidated. That would force everyone to either put it all on the public record or count themselves out of the process altogether.
I suspect May would choose the latter
Nonsense. If someone sticks up 1) No Deal for instance then you simply discard the ballot after the first round if it loses. Any voting system rewards those who make more preferences anyway.
I don't see this at all. I genuinely don't believe this system can work. First, what about those who decide not to participate (I can see that 'no dealers' may well decide to do this)? Second, even having established some sort of 'pecking order' you can't force an MP to vote for the collective first choice to become legislation. For example, would the SNP be willing to vote for any collectively-agreed form of Brexit given their stated support for revocation? I just don't see it working (and that's before Corbyn/May get the whips to work).
Just back from a 12 day P&O cruise to the Canaries. I'd guess the demographic of the ship (average age 60+, mainly middle class, mostly from small towns across the UK) was 75% leave. We always like to share tables at in the restaurants and meet a lot of interesting (and some boring) people through the cruise.
Brexit has never got a mention on previous cruises but this time it was raised quite often, usually by one person on the table saying something like: "I can't understand why we just can't leave - we did fine in 1970".
What surprised me is that this was often met with embarrassed silence or mumblings. Also quite a few people saying things like: "It's such a mess", "We should just forget the whole thing", "I can't understand why we're bothering" (to which the rejoiner was "well you voted for it!")
I am sure it's true that the vast majority outside our PB bubble are thoroughly fed up to the back teeth with Brexit. I think many just want it done or dropped and don't really care much which.
As I say only anecdotal.
People think the EU is something you can switch off and there are no consequences to doing so. Like the membership for the gym you never go to.
If Letwin does go with some form of preference voting, it should be a requirement that a ballot ranks all of the available options, otherwise it is entirely invalidated. That would force everyone to either put it all on the public record or count themselves out of the process altogether.
I suspect May would choose the latter
Nonsense. If someone sticks up 1) No Deal for instance then you simply discard the ballot after the first round if it loses.
What?
To be clear, I'm aware how AV deals with incomplete ballots. I'm saying that in the case that should be disallowed to force politicians to put all their preferences on record
So how would everyone fill out their indicitive ballots ?
6 options I can see that have some sort of support in the house:
Revoke {2nd referendum/People's vote/May's deal subject to ratification by the public} <- All essentially identical Common Market 2.0 May's deal + Corbyn's customs union May's deal No Deal
I'd possibly go
1) Common Market 2.0 2) May's deal 3) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union 4) 2nd Ref 5) No deal 6) Revocation
There's a clear enough dividing line between the top 3 and bottom 3 options for me.</p>
1. No Deal 2. No Deal 3. No Deal 4. No Deal 5. No Deal 6. No Deal
No other option has any deontological, teleological or dialogic moral authority.
I really didn't like the way 2nd reffers were angling to get their option outside of the indicitive ballots. It's of the utmost substance and not simply a process issue, most dishonest. Sure, include May's deal subject to a 2nd vote in the indicitive votes but you can't just take whatever option emerges and produce another "subject to ratification by the public" hurdle for it. If it is Common Market 2.0, it is Common Market 2.0.
Bah humbug, it leaves us permanently tied into the CU unless or until the EU decides its happy for us to leave.
It leaves the UK in broadly the same position as Switzerland, only without the fees or the freedom of movement.
How long before Switzerland and Norway start demanding that they pay our level of fees? Or that they can leave FoM?
The backstop is at least as uncomfortable for the EU as for us. *And* we get internnational mediation if we think they aren't keeping up with their treaty obligations to implement a technical solution.
Also: you've spoken on the board about having voted Remain. And yet today you've said you voted Leave. Which one is it?
I missed you asking me this question yesterday so just to set the record straight I have spoken about having previously supported Remain. Which I did, until Cameron finished his renegotiations. I argued pro-Remain for years on this site getting into a number of disagreements with @iSam and @Richard_Tyndall in particular. I switched from Remain to Leave during the campaign and I was one of the few people on this forum to really struggle determining how to vote during the early part of the campaign and I ended up deciding Leave and said on this forum that I had switched from Remain to Leave before voting.
In part due to this forum. It was some excellent arguments from @Richard_Tyndall and @Casino_Royale plus a very persuasive article I read at the start of the campaign by Michael Gove that made me reconsider my reasons for supporting Remain. I know not many people actually change their minds on any site like this, but I did.
Hope that clears that up, I wouldn't want you to think I'm being disingenuous.
Prince Chas has stood around in Cuba like he's got a glass cock. Casino went full Beautiful Mind over the 2 million strong Revoke March. May has almost completed her transformation to her final form which the Miss Havisham of No. 10. Mueller was meh but Trump is still an ignorant piece of ochre coloured shit. Oliver Letlabourwin is apparently still a thing. Pete Buttigieg is almost certainly not going to be POTUS but you can still make money betting that he will. SeanT's Mrs is apparently turning into the wrong Mitford sister since she read some book about China. Corbo danced next to a statue of some old c**t who used to be on the telly in Morecambe. Brexit is proper LOL.
If Letwin does go with some form of preference voting, it should be a requirement that a ballot ranks all of the available options, otherwise it is entirely invalidated. That would force everyone to either put it all on the public record or count themselves out of the process altogether.
I suspect May would choose the latter
Nonsense. If someone sticks up 1) No Deal for instance then you simply discard the ballot after the first round if it loses. Any voting system rewards those who make more preferences anyway.
I don't see this at all. I genuinely don't believe this system can work. First, what about those who decide not to participate (I can see that 'no dealers' may well decide to do this)? Second, even having established some sort of 'pecking order' you can't force an MP to vote for the collective first choice to become legislation. For example, would the SNP be willing to vote for any collectively-agreed form of Brexit given their stated support for revocation? I just don't see it working (and that's before Corbyn/May get the whips to work).
If you are indifferent between subsequent options then you should be allowed to opt out of the decision, provided you are happy to let everyone else decide.
In part due to this forum. It was some excellent arguments from @Richard_Tyndall and @Casino_Royale plus a very persuasive article I read at the start of the campaign by Michael Gove that made me reconsider my reasons for supporting Remain.
Gove didn't really want to leave. For him it was just a power game, and he thought voting to leave would force the EU to bow down to our demands.
Comments
A lot more people feel strongly than a few years ago, and active pro-EU feeling has rocketed up in the urban middle classes. But on the whole, a majority of voters still don't really care that much and just want it over with - no deal, no Brexit, whatever. That's especially true of Labour voters, who feel there are issues more directly affecting them which are being completely ignored (that's why leadership equivocation on Brexit isn't leading to mass defections).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xr9-CkZZRk
That’s very striking.
I remember well Nigel Lawson making the claim on Question Time and you could hear an audible intake of breath. It was in my opinion the single most effective lie in persuading the older not-too-politically-engaged-or well educated that it's better to be safe than sorry and vote Leave.
Parliamentary democracy in action.
No Dealers would now clearly prefer to go into opposition with Corbyn PM pursuing BINO or EUref2 than stay in Government and support May's Deal it seems
Here at my office (in London) two colleagues have admitted going on it. There are around 80-90 people on my floor (east end).
It represents a radicalising of metropolitan urban Britain and the Remain middle classes.
Everyone else is either ignorant of or bored by it.
We are heading for a Corbyn v Boris battle once May goes much as I think the US is heading for Trump v Sanders in 2020
It's one reason why I am sceptical about the 'riots on the streets' predictions if Brexit doesn't happen. I am not saying there won't be protests or that they don't have the potential to be disruptive but it will be the committed hard-core Brexiteers (plus, no doubt, some extreme bandwagonists) rather than the great mass of Leave voters who protest imo.
Nothing wrong with that, of course, but it’s not always based on deep-seated intelligence and a understanding of the inner workings of international geopolitics.
1. May's Deal
2. No Deal
3. Any other "BINO"
1. It has shown us in vivid Technicolour how utterly stupid and pig-ignorant many of our MPs are.
2. Katya Adler.
3. All those pictures of Donald Tusk when younger showing what a hottie he was.
That’s more than big enough to make it a very major feature in UK politics for the foreseeable future.
https://twitter.com/bexin2d/status/1110111515208749057
https://twitter.com/bexin2d/status/1110111522351661056
A large number of those favouring No Deal just want the whole thing over and believe it to be a simple solution, I suspect.
Boris is the right-wing British populist equivalent of Trump
Cannot comment on Tusk
Either way, for the true believers on either side, the sums involved would pay several times over for Corbyn's programme of nationalising jam production and free manhole covers for every ratepayer. And the same sort of argument could be made over sovereignty. Those who genuinely believe Britain will be a vassal state under the yoke of a Brussels dictator will see this as even worse than a Labour victory because at least Corbyn is British and we can vote him out in five years. We can't do that with Tusk or Juncker.
One of the reasons we are in this mess is the extremists on both sides really do believe what they say.
Just back from a 12 day P&O cruise to the Canaries. I'd guess the demographic of the ship (average age 60+, mainly middle class, mostly from small towns across the UK) was 75% leave. We always like to share tables at in the restaurants and meet a lot of interesting (and some boring) people through the cruise.
Brexit has never got a mention on previous cruises but this time it was raised quite often, usually by one person on the table saying something like: "I can't understand why we just can't leave - we did fine in 1970".
What surprised me is that this was often met with embarrassed silence or mumblings. Also quite a few people saying things like: "It's such a mess", "We should just forget the whole thing", "I can't understand why we're bothering" (to which the rejoiner was "well you voted for it!")
I am sure it's true that the vast majority outside our PB bubble are thoroughly fed up to the back teeth with Brexit. I think many just want it done or dropped and don't really care much which.
As I say only anecdotal.
"Each Contracting Party may withdraw from this Agreement provided it gives at least twelve months' notice in writing to the other Contracting Parties.
Immediately after the notification of the intended withdrawal, the other Contracting Parties shall convene a diplomatic conference in order to envisage the necessary modifications to bring to the Agreement."
Strange to think it's not that long ago that we used to hear the complaint that the parties are all the same.
R: Young Tusk protesting against Soviet totalitarianism on the streets of Gdansk.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1110443949775298562
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1110445379428990977
But, I'd say it's the *preferred* outcome of about 25%. More people prefer it than prefer May's deal, but far more regard May's deal as second-best, as opposed to No Deal or Remain.
We will know when it's happened because The Guardian will start using the term freely; currently they avoid it as giving Leavers too romantic an air (Brexiteer - Musketeer).
First up the local elections and the Euro elections - traditionally poor turn outs. Only the most committed of voters bother.
Mrs May should put Mr Letwin in charge of the campaigns as a reward for taking back control.
6 options I can see that have some sort of support in the house:
Revoke
{2nd referendum/People's vote/May's deal subject to ratification by the public} <- All essentially identical
Common Market 2.0
May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
May's deal
No Deal
I'd possibly go
1) Common Market 2.0
2) May's deal
3) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
4) 2nd Ref
5) No deal
6) Revocation
There's a clear enough dividing line between the top 3 and bottom 3 options for me.
I suspect May would choose the latter
At some point, the USA needs a president who will bring them into the developed world when it comes to universal healthcare, paid holiday and maternity leave. Perhaps Bernie will be the one.
There's a distinction between those MP's who are trying to produce a form of Brexit (Boles, Letwin) and those who are trying to prevent Brexit (Cooper, Grieve, Benn) but this will probably not be apparent to the public.
1) 2nd Ref
2) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union
3) Common Market 2.0 (I think - tbh not entirely sure how this compares with 2*)
4) May's deal
5) Revocation
6) No deal
(*But then most MPS won't have a clue either)
Also let's not forget that a proportion of that 27% think No Deal means Remain.
That's rubbish isn't it, the question is Leave with No Deal. My mistake
There is an Article 50 equivalent: Article 127.
Twelve months notice.
The EEA Agreement is here: https://www.efta.int/sites/default/files/documents/legal-texts/eea/the-eea-agreement/Main Text of the Agreement/EEAagreement.pdf
2. No Deal
3. No Deal
4. No Deal
5. No Deal
6. No Deal
No other option has any deontological, teleological or dialogic moral authority.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourism/novemberanddecember2018provisionalresults#trends-in-overseas-visits-by-uk-residents-non-seasonally-adjusted
Which was more than double what foreign visitors to the UK spent.
If it is Common Market 2.0, it is Common Market 2.0.
In part due to this forum. It was some excellent arguments from @Richard_Tyndall and @Casino_Royale plus a very persuasive article I read at the start of the campaign by Michael Gove that made me reconsider my reasons for supporting Remain. I know not many people actually change their minds on any site like this, but I did.
Hope that clears that up, I wouldn't want you to think I'm being disingenuous.