Peering into the murk, can we see any outline of a possible outcome to all this? Some thoughts:
1. No Deal cannot yet be ruled out. Parliament can pass whatever resolutions it wants, but it can only stop No Deal either by forcing the executive to revoke Article 50, the constitutional mechanism for which is unclear, or by ratifying the Withdrawal Agreement, or it can instruct the executive to ask for an extension - which may not be granted, depending on the purpose and circumstances. It's impossible to say which if any of these routes would both command a majority and be implementable in practice.
2. I'm sceptical about the 'softer Brexit' route out of the mess. Let's assume for the sake of argument that this does indeed command a majority, perhaps in the form of remaining in the customs union. The Withdrawal Agreement and backstop will remain completely unchanged, so the DUP will probably maintain their opposition, which in itself is a destabilising factor which could lead to no government at all. But let's assume we get round that, and that Theresa May relents on her absolute opposition to remaining in the customs union. The government would then have to go back to the EU to ask for a change to Political Declaration to encompass the new end-point. That would presumably take some time, although the EU would be sympathetic, and meanwhile the government would still be dependent on the ERGers. Are the latter going to lie down and accept this watering down of Brexit? And even if they do in the short term, the next stage has to be two years of detailed negotiations to turn the Political Declaration into a treaty. Is it really realistic to think this an be done by a Conservative government which doesn't believe in the end-point in the first place and where much of the Conservative Party would be implacably opposed to it? (After all, any replacement for the PM is highly unlikely to be an advocate of a softer Brexit).
3. So perhaps this points to an scenario where we ratify the WA, avoid the immediate cliff-edge, and then hold a GE to figure out what to try to do next. That would effectively nullify the 'indicative vote' of the current parliament, and replace it with... what? It's hard to see the Conservative Party campaigning on a platform of a softer Brexit than Theresa May was trying to implement. Labour probably would, but on current polling don't look likely to get a mandate to implement it - another hung parliament, and a repeat of the current squabbles, looks likely.
4. Alternatively, parliament might end up supporting a Revoke vs Deal referendum as a way out. But again we have the problem of forcing the executive, and the Conservative Party, to do something it is dead set against.
5. Will considerations like these lead MPs back to the obvious answer, which is the one Theresa May has been pointing to for months? Logic and the interests of the country say yes, but politics says no. Which perhaps takes us back to 1.
Can Jacob Rees-Mogg really be such an absolute, total, complete fucking idiot?
OK don't answer please.
Any lingering doubts as to whether JRM could be next Con leader / PM should now be answered (to think he was once favourite!!). Even now, he's widely between 20/1 and 28/1, which gives him twice the chance of, say, Matt Hancock.
As always the golden rule is to get your betrayal in early.
The ERGonauts now resemble polar bears clinging to a melting iceberg.
I don't pretend to have the intellectual process of Jacob Rees-Mogg - I think I'm a bit brighter than that - but his assertion (and I've heard this from others) that the only option are passing the WA or having Brexit "stopped" doesn't quite work for me.
Let me work this out - IF the Commons passes the WA (MV3, MV4?) we will leave the EU on May 22nd. Passing the WA will exempt us from the EU Parliamentary elections and we can go back to lauding the English football team in the certain knowledge that having beaten the football titans of Montenegro in qualification we will come up short against the colossi of Iceland, Croatia or perhaps France when the games actually matter.
Okay, let's assume the greatest agreement in the history of mankind doesn't get past the Commons - assuming we have agreed to change the exit date to April 12th what happens then? We have no WA, doesn't that mean we simply leave without a WA which after all is what JRM and his band want? We can't extend further without having(not wanting but having) to take part in the EU Parliamentary elections.
Would we want to do that? We would have to do it if we wanted to stay so the option then becomes a long extension (revocation by any other name) or we leave. Again, as I understand it, the EU deals with the UK Government not the UK Parliament so they will go with what the Prime Minister tells them not what Parliament has voted for. So even if Parliament legislates against No Deal (akin to trying to legislate against snow), if the UK Government has not get the WA through and doesn't want to extend Brexit even longer, then we are gone as they cannot give us more time if we are not going to hold the EU Parliamentary elections.
If we want to avoid No Deal, we can either pass the WA or be forced into a much longer extension than might be politically acceptable (to paraphrase Narnia, "always A50 and never Brexit") but if neither option commands the support of the Commons, that's what will happen and all the indicative votes in the world don't change that.
It's really that simple and everything else is just noise.
So how would everyone fill out their indicitive ballots ?
6 options I can see that have some sort of support in the house:
Revoke {2nd referendum/People's vote/May's deal subject to ratification by the public} <- All essentially identical Common Market 2.0 May's deal + Corbyn's customs union May's deal No Deal
I'd possibly go
1) Common Market 2.0 2) May's deal 3) May's deal + Corbyn's customs union 4) 2nd Ref 5) No deal 6) Revocation
There's a clear enough dividing line between the top 3 and bottom 3 options for me.</p>
2nd Ref Common Market 2.0 ... May's deal plus CU Revocation May's deal ... ... ... No deal.
Pulpstar - Common Market 2.0 is really May's deal + Common Market 2.0.
So is Corbyn's Customs union. As is ANY variant of leaving with a deal. The WA is signed sealed and agreed and not for reopening. There are a whole bunch of paths we can head down after transition though.
The number of people - the sheer volume of them - who still don't understand this is staggering.
On this thread we've had people saying Norway is better than May's Deal, for example.
That is not strictly true. If MPs reject May's deal, then the EU extension agreement says that the UK will need to leave the EU on 12 April with no deal, or have decided a new plan by then. A further extension is then, of course, dependent on both EU agreement, and our taking part in the EU elections. That is why I'm in favour of Norway - it's effectively off the shelf, so could be done quite quickly, and is very likely to meet with EU agreement.
Apart for that, I fully take your point. The reason I don't think May's deal will fly is not because of its inherent flaws (that I don't personally approve of ending freedom of movement is beside the point), but because of the now total lack of trust in May. The WA, of course, leaves what happens next at the mercy of whichever government is in power to negotiate with the EU over the next two years.
None of this is satisfactory, but we are where we are.
All true, and excellent PB pedantry.
Getting to the position where we agree Norway as the option prior to the 12th, and in sufficient time for the EU to actually grant another extension (and believe we actually mean it), is exceedingly unlikely. Infinitesimal.
So is Corbyn's Customs union. As is ANY variant of leaving with a deal. The WA is signed sealed and agreed and not for reopening. There are a whole bunch of paths we can head down after transition though.
The problem with these paths is that as soon as Labour MPs vote through her deal, TMay is obviously going to revert to her default behaviour of trying to negotiate the closest thing to the ERG's demands that's compatible with reality. Since the next step for the soft brexit routes is the same as the next step for TMay-style Local-Shops-For-Local-People Brexit, and once they allow that step the soft-brexit people lose their leverage, I don't really understand how they get implemented.
May, or whoever is PM comes back with the fully fledged trade deal at the end of the two year period. Parliament can easily vote it down if it so chooses, and tell her or Gove or Boris to go back and get a softer one.
Can they? Does Parliament get to vote on trade deals? Genuine question.
So is Corbyn's Customs union. As is ANY variant of leaving with a deal. The WA is signed sealed and agreed and not for reopening. There are a whole bunch of paths we can head down after transition though.
The problem with these paths is that as soon as Labour MPs vote through her deal, TMay is obviously going to revert to her default behaviour of trying to negotiate the closest thing to the ERG's demands that's compatible with reality. Since the next step for the soft brexit routes is the same as the next step for TMay-style Local-Shops-For-Local-People Brexit, and once they allow that step the soft-brexit people lose their leverage, I don't really understand how they get implemented.
May, or whoever is PM comes back with the fully fledged trade deal at the end of the two year period. Parliament can easily vote it down if it so chooses, and tell her or Gove or Boris to go back and get a softer one.
They can vote against it, but they can only vote it down if the ERG and the DUP are also opposed to it.
Now, it's true that the ERG and the DUP like voting against things, so maybe that's what'll happen. But the WA, and specifically the backstop, is basically *designed* to make not coming up with a deal suck for the ERG and the DUP. If TMay has their votes, she's not going to care what Labour MPs think, and whenever she's had a choice between trying to get their votes and trying to get the votes of someone in the opposition, she's always gone for the ERG/DUP route.
Sure, but there is a good sized wet Tory vote as well, also the Tiggers/Lib Dems/Plaid etc would want something soft at that point. So its not a given.
French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
Tough - he doesn't get a say.
He does (well, the French government does), if the UK has not passed the WA by a week on Friday.
If they exercise their choice he gets no choice if we revoke I think is the point. I wonder how Parliament would vote in a forced No Deal or Revoke choice.
I suppose there would be an extremely short (hours) period between the EU27 failing to trigger the flex extension and the UK's membership lapsing during which A50 could be revoked. However, as it's not clear that the UK govt has the power under UK law (as opposed to EU law) to do this, and as it wouldn't have the time to correct any legislative deficiencies, such a move would not help to end uncertainty.
Peering into the murk, can we see any outline of a possible outcome to all this? Some thoughts...
I think the path of least resistance is that MPs come up with some kind of a plan, which is solid and widely-supported enough for the EU to agree a long extension and keep the no-deal kaiju at bay, but not so solid that it can actually be implemented.
Can Jacob Rees-Mogg really be such an absolute, total, complete fucking idiot?
OK don't answer please.
Any lingering doubts as to whether JRM could be next Con leader / PM should now be answered (to think he was once favourite!!). Even now, he's widely between 20/1 and 28/1, which gives him twice the chance of, say, Matt Hancock.
Amber Rudd, Rees Mogg and David Lidington have all been flights of fancy in this market
Lidington remains a possible, simply because he's there, uncontentious and getting on enough for young cardinals to vote for as a compromise - though the enthusiasm for him over the weekend has rightly now dimmed.
Can Jacob Rees-Mogg really be such an absolute, total, complete fucking idiot?
OK don't answer please.
Any lingering doubts as to whether JRM could be next Con leader / PM should now be answered (to think he was once favourite!!). Even now, he's widely between 20/1 and 28/1, which gives him twice the chance of, say, Matt Hancock.
Amber Rudd, Rees Mogg and David Lidington have all been flights of fancy in this market
Don’t say that. I’ve already mentally spent my Lidington winnings.
French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
Tough - he doesn't get a say.
He does (well, the French government does), if the UK has not passed the WA by a week on Friday.
If they exercise their choice he gets no choice if we revoke I think is the point. I wonder how Parliament would vote in a forced No Deal or Revoke choice.
I suppose there would be an extremely short (hours) period between the EU27 failing to trigger the flex extension and the UK's membership lapsing during which A50 could be revoked. However, as it's not clear that the UK govt has the power under UK law (as opposed to EU law) to do this, and as it wouldn't have the time to correct any legislative deficiencies, such a move would not help to end uncertainty.
It's an interesting point: a 10pm vote on 12th April in the HoC to Revoke, followed by a faxed letter to Junckers or Tusk, would do it. The motion could, I am sure, make clear other legal issues will be sorted in due course.
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.
The largest percentage of signatures in a Leave voting constituency is currently 14.9% in Devon Central.
I think it's a safe bet that the Lib Dems will pick up a few seats in the SW at the next GE.
Yes they could do very well, especially with a new leader.
Student fees seems like a long time ago now.
I take you havent been mugged by Universities of late.
Correct. But if you're a Tory Remainer in Devon, are you only going to blame the LDs for fees, and let that dictate your vote?
If youre a young person who has just been tucked up with £60k of debt with very little to show for it are you going to thank the LDs for stitching you up ? If youre a parent who doesnt want to see your kids sold to the modern version of indentured labour are you going to thank the LDs for that large hole your savings ?
Can Jacob Rees-Mogg really be such an absolute, total, complete fucking idiot?
OK don't answer please.
Any lingering doubts as to whether JRM could be next Con leader / PM should now be answered (to think he was once favourite!!). Even now, he's widely between 20/1 and 28/1, which gives him twice the chance of, say, Matt Hancock.
As always the golden rule is to get your betrayal in early.
The ERGonauts now resemble polar bears clinging to a melting iceberg.
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.
The largest percentage of signatures in a Leave voting constituency is currently 14.9% in Devon Central.
I think it's a safe bet that the Lib Dems will pick up a few seats in the SW at the next GE.
Yes they could do very well, especially with a new leader.
Student fees seems like a long time ago now.
I take you havent been mugged by Universities of late.
Why didn't the Lib.Dems accept Sandy Toksvig into their ranks? Instead she went off and formed a new party. She spoke in Parliamentary Square on Saturday. The top three votes for oratory that day definitely go to her, Lucas and Heseltine.
No it doesn't. As with May's proposal, it would probably never be triggered, but it would still remain as a backstop in case the customs union proposal was never formally agreed.
I don't pretend to have the intellectual process of Jacob Rees-Mogg - I think I'm a bit brighter than that - but his assertion (and I've heard this from others) that the only option are passing the WA or having Brexit "stopped" doesn't quite work for me.
Let me work this out - IF the Commons passes the WA (MV3, MV4?) we will leave the EU on May 22nd. Passing the WA will exempt us from the EU Parliamentary elections and we can go back to lauding the English football team in the certain knowledge that having beaten the football titans of Montenegro in qualification we will come up short against the colossi of Iceland, Croatia or perhaps France when the games actually matter.
Okay, let's assume the greatest agreement in the history of mankind doesn't get past the Commons - assuming we have agreed to change the exit date to April 12th what happens then? We have no WA, doesn't that mean we simply leave without a WA which after all is what JRM and his band want? We can't extend further without having(not wanting but having) to take part in the EU Parliamentary elections.
Would we want to do that? We would have to do it if we wanted to stay so the option then becomes a long extension (revocation by any other name) or we leave. Again, as I understand it, the EU deals with the UK Government not the UK Parliament so they will go with what the Prime Minister tells them not what Parliament has voted for. So even if Parliament legislates against No Deal (akin to trying to legislate against snow), if the UK Government has not get the WA through and doesn't want to extend Brexit even longer, then we are gone as they cannot give us more time if we are not going to hold the EU Parliamentary elections.
If we want to avoid No Deal, we can either pass the WA or be forced into a much longer extension than might be politically acceptable (to paraphrase Narnia, "always A50 and never Brexit") but if neither option commands the support of the Commons, that's what will happen and all the indicative votes in the world don't change that.
It's really that simple and everything else is just noise.
I did say pretty much this at the weekend, in the article you disagreed with.
According to Steven Swinford, some supporters of the indicative vote amendment don't want the vote to take place tomorrow, in case MP's vote for an option they don't want.
I just want to bang my head against the desk at this point.
Can Jacob Rees-Mogg really be such an absolute, total, complete fucking idiot?
OK don't answer please.
People sending their kids to Eton should think twice
The cream of society, rich and thick
Cameron, Boris, and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Thank heaven our new saviour, Oliver Letwin, went to ... oh, dear!
Eton seems to help people get into positions of power but leave them ill-prepared once they get there, which really is the worst possible outcome for the rest of us.
Bristol West and Brighton Pavillion leading the fray in the Revoke vote, the former passing 25%. Amazing turnout for an online petition.
Hartlepool is on 2.8%...
It's probably better to look at the percentage of the electorate figures rather than population. Personally I don't think the numbers signing this petition are an indication that Remain would win another referendum. The highest figures are in precisely the areas that voted overwhelmingly Remain at the referendum.
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.
The largest percentage of signatures in a Leave voting constituency is currently 14.9% in Devon Central.
I think it's a safe bet that the Lib Dems will pick up a few seats in the SW at the next GE.
Yes they could do very well, especially with a new leader.
Student fees seems like a long time ago now.
I take you havent been mugged by Universities of late.
Correct. But if you're a Tory Remainer in Devon, are you only going to blame the LDs for fees, and let that dictate your vote?
If youre a young person who has just been tucked up with £60k of debt with very little to show for it are you going to thank the LDs for stitching you up ? If youre a parent who doesnt want to see your kids sold to the modern version of indentured labour are you going to thank the LDs for that large hole your savings ?
My eldest and her partner were the first to go through under the new regime and they're fine with it. They do note "They should just have called it a graduate tax, shouldn't they?"
Anyway - "indentured labour"? Seriously?
"If you earn under the average income as a graduate, it's free. You only pay if you earn over the average, and that's only a proportion of your income over the average" ---"Why, that's indentured labour!"
So is Corbyn's Customs union. As is ANY variant of leaving with a deal. The WA is signed sealed and agreed and not for reopening. There are a whole bunch of paths we can head down after transition though.
The problem with these paths is that as soon as Labour MPs vote through her deal, TMay is obviously going to revert to her default behaviour of trying to negotiate the closest thing to the ERG's demands that's compatible with reality. Since the next step for the soft brexit routes is the same as the next step for TMay-style Local-Shops-For-Local-People Brexit, and once they allow that step the soft-brexit people lose their leverage, I don't really understand how they get implemented.
Exactly. Even if May makes a vague commitment to seeking a softer Brexit in the "next phase" of the negotiations, why would Labour MPs trust her (or whoever replaces her) to stick to her commitment, after all the lies she's told in recent months?
At the very least, I would've thought a cross-party deal would still involve a long Article 50 extension, and some concrete (and more irreversible) progress on negotiating a softer Brexit, before Labour agreed to throw away their leverage by ratifying the withdrawal agreement.
French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
Tough - he doesn't get a say.
He does (well, the French government does), if the UK has not passed the WA by a week on Friday.
If they exercise their choice he gets no choice if we revoke I think is the point. I wonder how Parliament would vote in a forced No Deal or Revoke choice.
I suppose there would be an extremely short (hours) period between the EU27 failing to trigger the flex extension and the UK's membership lapsing during which A50 could be revoked. However, as it's not clear that the UK govt has the power under UK law (as opposed to EU law) to do this, and as it wouldn't have the time to correct any legislative deficiencies, such a move would not help to end uncertainty.
It's an interesting point: a 10pm vote on 12th April in the HoC to Revoke, followed by a faxed letter to Junckers or Tusk, would do it. The motion could, I am sure, make clear other legal issues will be sorted in due course.
I know you will not like this but that is impossible without the HOC accepting UK EU elections before that is comsidered
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.
The largest percentage of signatures in a Leave voting constituency is currently 14.9% in Devon Central.
I think it's a safe bet that the Lib Dems will pick up a few seats in the SW at the next GE.
Yes they could do very well, especially with a new leader.
Student fees seems like a long time ago now.
I take you havent been mugged by Universities of late.
Correct. But if you're a Tory Remainer in Devon, are you only going to blame the LDs for fees, and let that dictate your vote?
If youre a young person who has just been tucked up with £60k of debt with very little to show for it are you going to thank the LDs for stitching you up ? If youre a parent who doesnt want to see your kids sold to the modern version of indentured labour are you going to thank the LDs for that large hole your savings ?
The former will probably vote Labour
The latter? Well I hardly think Tory hands are clean when it comes to student fees. Remainers will vote LD; Leavers Tory, UKIP or Brexit.
Massive generalisations there of course, lots of exceptions.
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.
The largest percentage of signatures in a Leave voting constituency is currently 14.9% in Devon Central.
I think it's a safe bet that the Lib Dems will pick up a few seats in the SW at the next GE.
Yes they could do very well, especially with a new leader.
Student fees seems like a long time ago now.
I take you havent been mugged by Universities of late.
Correct. But if you're a Tory Remainer in Devon, are you only going to blame the LDs for fees, and let that dictate your vote?
If youre a young person who has just been tucked up with £60k of debt with very little to show for it are you going to thank the LDs for stitching you up ? If youre a parent who doesnt want to see your kids sold to the modern version of indentured labour are you going to thank the LDs for that large hole your savings ?
My eldest and her partner were the first to go through under the new regime and they're fine with it. They do note "They should just have called it a graduate tax, shouldn't they?"
Anyway - "indentured labour"? Seriously?
"If you earn under the average income as a graduate, it's free. You only pay if you earn over the average, and that's only a proportion of your income over the average" ---"Why, that's indentured labour!"
oh a bit of poetic licence Mr Cooke
but yes it is a graduate tax and we are in the daft position of fining people for improving the national value of human capital. At a time were all saying we need a knowledge based workforce, we're disincentivising knowledge.
Peering into the murk, can we see any outline of a possible outcome to all this? Some thoughts:
[snip]
2. I'm sceptical about the 'softer Brexit' route out of the mess. Let's assume for the sake of argument that this does indeed command a majority, perhaps in the form of remaining in the customs union. The Withdrawal Agreement and backstop will remain completely unchanged, so the DUP will probably maintain their opposition, which in itself is a destabilising factor which could lead to no government at all. But let's assume we get round that, and that Theresa May relents on her absolute opposition to remaining in the customs union. The government would then have to go back to the EU to ask for a change to Political Declaration to encompass the new end-point. That would presumably take some time, although the EU would be sympathetic, and meanwhile the government would still be dependent on the ERGers. Are the latter going to lie down and accept this watering down of Brexit? And even if they do in the short term, the next stage has to be two years of detailed negotiations to turn the Political Declaration into a treaty. Is it really realistic to think this an be done by a Conservative government which doesn't believe in the end-point in the first place and where much of the Conservative Party would be implacably opposed to it? (After all, any replacement for the PM is highly unlikely to be an advocate of a softer Brexit).
[snip]
Isn't the entire point of Norway-plus/Common Market 2.0/whatever it is that it effectively sidelines the backstop as a thing? That is - if we were in that scenario and were explicitly going to go there, the backstop would never ever need to be invoked and everyone would know that. And that in the Norway-plus endstate, we'd still have some say in all legislation that would affect us.
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.
The largest percentage of signatures in a Leave voting constituency is currently 14.9% in Devon Central.
I think it's a safe bet that the Lib Dems will pick up a few seats in the SW at the next GE.
Yes they could do very well, especially with a new leader.
Student fees seems like a long time ago now.
I take you havent been mugged by Universities of late.
Correct. But if you're a Tory Remainer in Devon, are you only going to blame the LDs for fees, and let that dictate your vote?
If youre a young person who has just been tucked up with £60k of debt with very little to show for it are you going to thank the LDs for stitching you up ? If youre a parent who doesnt want to see your kids sold to the modern version of indentured labour are you going to thank the LDs for that large hole your savings ?
My eldest and her partner were the first to go through under the new regime and they're fine with it. They do note "They should just have called it a graduate tax, shouldn't they?"
Anyway - "indentured labour"? Seriously?
"If you earn under the average income as a graduate, it's free. You only pay if you earn over the average, and that's only a proportion of your income over the average" ---"Why, that's indentured labour!"
Granddaughter-in-law teaches VIth Form (that's what I call it anyway!). She doesn't report problems. Grandson II is doing GCSE's at the moment. He's considering an apprenticeship or University, but I don't think cost's a significant element.
Bristol West and Brighton Pavillion leading the fray in the Revoke vote, the former passing 25%. Amazing turnout for an online petition.
Hartlepool is on 2.8%...
It's probably better to look at the percentage of the electorate figures rather than population. Personally I don't think the numbers signing this petition are an indication that Remain would win another referendum. The highest figures are in precisely the areas that voted overwhelmingly Remain at the referendum.
That's "percentage of constituents" - which I assume is population, rather than those eligible to vote. Given the ratio of constituents to voters will be largely the same (outliers with large immigrant populations excepted) then I think the message remains the same.
I'd *guess* 25% of constituents = 40% of the electorate
French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
Tough - he doesn't get a say.
He does (well, the French government does), if the UK has not passed the WA by a week on Friday.
If they exercise their choice he gets no choice if we revoke I think is the point. I wonder how Parliament would vote in a forced No Deal or Revoke choice.
I suppose there would be an extremely short (hours) period between the EU27 failing to trigger the flex extension and the UK's membership lapsing during which A50 could be revoked. However, as it's not clear that the UK govt has the power under UK law (as opposed to EU law) to do this, and as it wouldn't have the time to correct any legislative deficiencies, such a move would not help to end uncertainty.
It's an interesting point: a 10pm vote on 12th April in the HoC to Revoke, followed by a faxed letter to Junckers or Tusk, would do it. The motion could, I am sure, make clear other legal issues will be sorted in due course.
The Commons can't just assert law on to the Statute Book. Either something is legal or it isn't. If it's not, then you can't claim you'll fix it later: the notification would be invalid.
Peering into the murk, can we see any outline of a possible outcome to all this? Some thoughts:
[snip]
2. I'm sceptical about the 'softer Brexit' route out of the mess. Let's assume for the sake of argument that this does indeed command a majority, perhaps in the form of remaining in the customs union. The Withdrawal Agreement and backstop will remain completely unchanged, so the DUP will probably maintain their opposition, which in itself is a destabilising factor which could lead to no government at all. But let's assume we get round that, and that Theresa May relents on her absolute opposition to remaining in the customs union. The government would then have to go back to the EU to ask for a change to Political Declaration to encompass the new end-point. That would presumably take some time, although the EU would be sympathetic, and meanwhile the government would still be dependent on the ERGers. Are the latter going to lie down and accept this watering down of Brexit? And even if they do in the short term, the next stage has to be two years of detailed negotiations to turn the Political Declaration into a treaty. Is it really realistic to think this an be done by a Conservative government which doesn't believe in the end-point in the first place and where much of the Conservative Party would be implacably opposed to it? (After all, any replacement for the PM is highly unlikely to be an advocate of a softer Brexit).
[snip]
Isn't the entire point of Norway-plus/Common Market 2.0/whatever it is that it effectively sidelines the backstop as a thing? That is - if we were in that scenario and were explicitly going to go there, the backstop would never ever need to be invoked and everyone would know that. And that in the Norway-plus endstate, we'd still have some say in all legislation that would affect us.
Well it stops being a thing because is IS the thing.
If the backstop (as I understand it) a permanent requirement for NI (at least) to remain in the customs union in the absence of an agreed settlement, if you have a customs union anyway then a backstop become moot.
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.
The largest percentage of signatures in a Leave voting constituency is currently 14.9% in Devon Central.
I think it's a safe bet that the Lib Dems will pick up a few seats in the SW at the next GE.
Yes they could do very well, especially with a new leader.
Student fees seems like a long time ago now.
I take you havent been mugged by Universities of late.
Correct. But if you're a Tory Remainer in Devon, are you only going to blame the LDs for fees, and let that dictate your vote?
If youre a young person who has just been tucked up with £60k of debt with very little to show for it are you going to thank the LDs for stitching you up ? If youre a parent who doesnt want to see your kids sold to the modern version of indentured labour are you going to thank the LDs for that large hole your savings ?
My eldest and her partner were the first to go through under the new regime and they're fine with it. They do note "They should just have called it a graduate tax, shouldn't they?"
Anyway - "indentured labour"? Seriously?
"If you earn under the average income as a graduate, it's free. You only pay if you earn over the average, and that's only a proportion of your income over the average" ---"Why, that's indentured labour!"
oh a bit of poetic licence Mr Cooke
but yes it is a graduate tax and we are in the daft position of fining people for improving the national value of human capital. At a time were all saying we need a knowledge based workforce, we're disincentivising knowledge.
Like we "fine" people for working (income tax)? Or we "fine" companies for being successful (corporation tax)? Or we "fine" anyone who provides goods or services (VAT)?
Bristol West and Brighton Pavillion leading the fray in the Revoke vote, the former passing 25%. Amazing turnout for an online petition.
Hartlepool is on 2.8%...
It's probably better to look at the percentage of the electorate figures rather than population. Personally I don't think the numbers signing this petition are an indication that Remain would win another referendum. The highest figures are in precisely the areas that voted overwhelmingly Remain at the referendum.
That's "percentage of constituents" - which I assume is population, rather than those eligible to vote. Given the ratio of constituents to voters will be largely the same (outliers with large immigrant populations excepted) then I think the message remains the same.
I'd *guess* 25% of constituents = 40% of the electorate
It does of course depend on whether they are eligible to vote. How many of those signing the petition in some of the London constituencies - where there are something like 1.5 million EU nationals resident - are actually EU citizens who would not have the right to vote in any second referendum?
Bristol West and Brighton Pavillion leading the fray in the Revoke vote, the former passing 25%. Amazing turnout for an online petition.
Hartlepool is on 2.8%...
EDIT: Walsall 1.8%
There are Labour areas of significant south Asian heritage (Bradford, North-West Coventry, Leicester East) that have a low signing rate.
Yes, Harrow East voted Remain at the referendum but just 9.6% of the electorate or 6.4% of the population have signed it. I'm not sure why EMs would be less likely to sign online petitions but without a doubt that appears to be the case.
Isn't the entire point of Norway-plus/Common Market 2.0/whatever it is that it effectively sidelines the backstop as a thing? That is - if we were in that scenario and were explicitly going to go there, the backstop would never ever need to be invoked and everyone would know that. And that in the Norway-plus endstate, we'd still have some say in all legislation that would affect us.
Yes, but there's no legal or political guarantee we'd get there. So the claimed objection to May's deal, that we might get 'stuck' in the backstop, still applies (or at least applies as much as it does to her deal, which IMO isn't much at all).
And that's without even pointing out that the backstop is a better version of remaining in the CU - we'd have no fees at all, and no need to implement FoM (which the EU might insist on in some softer Brexit version).
Bristol West and Brighton Pavillion leading the fray in the Revoke vote, the former passing 25%. Amazing turnout for an online petition.
Hartlepool is on 2.8%...
It's probably better to look at the percentage of the electorate figures rather than population. Personally I don't think the numbers signing this petition are an indication that Remain would win another referendum. The highest figures are in precisely the areas that voted overwhelmingly Remain at the referendum.
That's "percentage of constituents" - which I assume is population, rather than those eligible to vote. Given the ratio of constituents to voters will be largely the same (outliers with large immigrant populations excepted) then I think the message remains the same.
I'd *guess* 25% of constituents = 40% of the electorate
A lot of urban constituencies will have large numbers of EU nationals who will have signed.
this also depends upon the level of capitulation by the ERG. Add in a whole-UK backstop for example in some kind of side-letter or addendum and the DUP climb on board.
What all this nonsense 1-6 gameshow stuff means is that, one way or another, as has been said often and at length on here, May's deal is the only game in town.
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.
The largest percentage of signatures in a Leave voting constituency is currently 14.9% in Devon Central.
I think it's a safe bet that the Lib Dems will pick up a few seats in the SW at the next GE.
Yes they could do very well, especially with a new leader.
Student fees seems like a long time ago now.
I take you havent been mugged by Universities of late.
Correct. But if you're a Tory Remainer in Devon, are you only going to blame the LDs for fees, and let that dictate your vote?
If youre a young person who has just been tucked up with £60k of debt with very little to show for it are you going to thank the LDs for stitching you up ? If youre a parent who doesnt want to see your kids sold to the modern version of indentured labour are you going to thank the LDs for that large hole your savings ?
My eldest and her partner were the first to go through under the new regime and they're fine with it. They do note "They should just have called it a graduate tax, shouldn't they?"
Anyway - "indentured labour"? Seriously?
"If you earn under the average income as a graduate, it's free. You only pay if you earn over the average, and that's only a proportion of your income over the average" ---"Why, that's indentured labour!"
oh a bit of poetic licence Mr Cooke
but yes it is a graduate tax and we are in the daft position of fining people for improving the national value of human capital. At a time were all saying we need a knowledge based workforce, we're disincentivising knowledge.
Different arguement. That one is 'on principle' and as such I agree. Where we disagree is how we manage what we've got.
So is Corbyn's Customs union. As is ANY variant of leaving with a deal. The WA is signed sealed and agreed and not for reopening. There are a whole bunch of paths we can head down after transition though.
The problem with these paths is that as soon as Labour MPs vote through her deal, TMay is obviously going to revert to her default behaviour of trying to negotiate the closest thing to the ERG's demands that's compatible with reality. Since the next step for the soft brexit routes is the same as the next step for TMay-style Local-Shops-For-Local-People Brexit, and once they allow that step the soft-brexit people lose their leverage, I don't really understand how they get implemented.
May, or whoever is PM comes back with the fully fledged trade deal at the end of the two year period. Parliament can easily vote it down if it so chooses, and tell her or Gove or Boris to go back and get a softer one.
Can they? Does Parliament get to vote on trade deals? Genuine question.
Yes.
But they’re not usually contentious. Signed by Govts with a majority and swiftly passed.
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.
The largest percentage of signatures in a Leave voting constituency is currently 14.9% in Devon Central.
I think it's a safe bet that the Lib Dems will pick up a few seats in the SW at the next GE.
Yes they could do very well, especially with a new leader.
Student fees seems like a long time ago now.
I take you havent been mugged by Universities of late.
Correct. But if you're a Tory Remainer in Devon, are you only going to blame the LDs for fees, and let that dictate your vote?
If youre a young person who has just been tucked up with £60k of debt with very little to show for it are you going to thank the LDs for stitching you up ? If youre a parent who doesnt want to see your kids sold to the modern version of indentured labour are you going to thank the LDs for that large hole your savings ?
My eldest and her partner were the first to go through under the new regime and they're fine with it. They do note "They should just have called it a graduate tax, shouldn't they?"
Anyway - "indentured labour"? Seriously?
"If you earn under the average income as a graduate, it's free. You only pay if you earn over the average, and that's only a proportion of your income over the average" ---"Why, that's indentured labour!"
We have a progressive tax system. The more you earn the more you pay as a percentage of income. Surely this should cover graduates earning more than most? We don't need a separate graduate tax. The top rates of income tax should be raised and some of it be used to finance universities.
Bristol West and Brighton Pavillion leading the fray in the Revoke vote, the former passing 25%. Amazing turnout for an online petition.
Hartlepool is on 2.8%...
EDIT: Walsall 1.8%
There are Labour areas of significant south Asian heritage (Bradford, North-West Coventry, Leicester East) that have a low signing rate.
When I looked Labour had the greatest proportion of extremes which is significant.
At one end of the spectrum, you have left wing middle class constituencies who have signed up in huge numbers, and at the other, Labour Leave constituencies that are largely uninterested.
Bristol West and Brighton Pavillion leading the fray in the Revoke vote, the former passing 25%. Amazing turnout for an online petition.
Hartlepool is on 2.8%...
EDIT: Walsall 1.8%
There are Labour areas of significant south Asian heritage (Bradford, North-West Coventry, Leicester East) that have a low signing rate.
I think it's more working-class Remain areas (regardless of ethnicity) are signing it at lower rates than middle-class Remain areas.
Merseyside and the Scottish Central Belt probably had the highest white working-class Remain votes anywhere, but the signatures in both places are relatively low.
this also depends upon the level of capitulation by the ERG. Add in a whole-UK backstop for example in some kind of side-letter or addendum and the DUP climb on board ...
This a bit of the jigsaw I don't understand. We have a whole-UK backstop, thanks to the negotiating prowess of Theresa May and Olly Robbins. You'd have thought that would be exactly what the DUP would want.
Would be amusing if the PV march and petition's impact was for Brexit to go ahead.
It may well have sharpened peoples minds....
I suspect it will still fail at the third hurdle.
Yep, it's probably too late. If the dup get on board maybe, but without them 0% chance even with them there could be enough Hard-core ERGers, and enough anti-leave MPs to make the difference
I'm beginning to worry that they are not stubborn or principled, but just really slow - I really do try not to assume such a thing, and I actually in a way respect sheer principled stubborness, but that kind of statement makes me think that for some reason he did not understand that point previously, despite many many people saying that very thing.
They've been sitting there for months assuming that if they deigned to favour the deal with their attention it would be there waiting for them, that there was no urgency.
this also depends upon the level of capitulation by the ERG. Add in a whole-UK backstop for example in some kind of side-letter or addendum and the DUP climb on board ...
This a bit of the jigsaw I don't understand. We have a whole-UK backstop, thanks to the negotiating prowess of Theresa May and Olly Robbins. You'd have thought that would be exactly what the DUP would want.
What they want is people to be dependent on them at all times. I don't know that I've seen a group of MPs enjoy their power so much, even to the point of forgetting to use it properly.
Would be amusing if the PV march and petition's impact was for Brexit to go ahead.
It may well have sharpened peoples minds....
I suspect it will still fail at the third hurdle.
Yep, it's probably too late. If the dup get on board maybe, but without them 0% chance even with them there could be enough Hard-core ERGers, and enough anti-leave MPs to make the difference
I see no sign of the DUP getting on board - it's not nearly close enough to midnight - they have bigger cajones than the ERG.
"The Tory Brexiter John Baron has said he thinks a general election is becoming more likely. He explained:
A snap general election is becoming more likely. Whatever the outcome of the votes on Wednesday, the numbers inside the current remain-dominated House of Commons will not change.
It may be that an election is necessary to redress the balance in favour of MPs willing to implement the referendum result, for history suggests it is unwise for any parliament to distance itself from the people. The events of the next few weeks will be critical."
"The Tory Brexiter John Baron has said he thinks a general election is becoming more likely. He explained:
A snap general election is becoming more likely. Whatever the outcome of the votes on Wednesday, the numbers inside the current remain-dominated House of Commons will not change.
It may be that an election is necessary to redress the balance in favour of MPs willing to implement the referendum result, for history suggests it is unwise for any parliament to distance itself from the people. The events of the next few weeks will be critical."
How does a GE achieve such a balance?! What if it returns the exact same balance?! And don't tell me they'll have manifesto commitments or that people who don't toe the line will not be selected, we know for a fact people don't follow the party line on this.
GE supporters are worse than no deal supporters - no deal is at least some kind of plan, it is some kind of outcome, not some hopeful punt downfield which might achieve nothing.
"The Tory Brexiter John Baron has said he thinks a general election is becoming more likely. He explained:
A snap general election is becoming more likely. Whatever the outcome of the votes on Wednesday, the numbers inside the current remain-dominated House of Commons will not change.
It may be that an election is necessary to redress the balance in favour of MPs willing to implement the referendum result, for history suggests it is unwise for any parliament to distance itself from the people. The events of the next few weeks will be critical."
this also depends upon the level of capitulation by the ERG. Add in a whole-UK backstop for example in some kind of side-letter or addendum and the DUP climb on board ...
This a bit of the jigsaw I don't understand. We have a whole-UK backstop, thanks to the negotiating prowess of Theresa May and Olly Robbins. You'd have thought that would be exactly what the DUP would want.
yebbut there are bits of the single market that only NI would be caught by.
@Danny565 I think it is a bit of both, Hodge Hill looks to be the lowest signing area to me - even lower than Boston and Skegness. I think the deduction that white middle class people have signed this in droves makes sense though.
Would be amusing if the PV march and petition's impact was for Brexit to go ahead.
It may well have sharpened peoples minds....
I suspect it will still fail at the third hurdle.
Yep, it's probably too late. If the dup get on board maybe, but without them 0% chance even with them there could be enough Hard-core ERGers, and enough anti-leave MPs to make the difference
The difference now is that both Labour Leavers and Tory Remainers have a path to other choices. So why back her deal now? May has one bullet left and is better waiting.
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.
The largest percentage of signatures in a Leave voting constituency is currently 14.9% in Devon Central.
Yes, as I mentioned on Saturday I saw multiple placards at the march from Devon.
Indeed. Also, it looks like Cities of London and Westminster is about to overtake Hornsey & Wood Green as the seat with highest percentage of the electorate signing the petition.
If I were Mark Field I would be crapping myself at the figure for Cities of London & Westminster. More people have signed the revoke petition than voted for him. He's going to face a very serious challenge at the next election whenever it comes.
"The Tory Brexiter John Baron has said he thinks a general election is becoming more likely. He explained:
A snap general election is becoming more likely. Whatever the outcome of the votes on Wednesday, the numbers inside the current remain-dominated House of Commons will not change.
It may be that an election is necessary to redress the balance in favour of MPs willing to implement the referendum result, for history suggests it is unwise for any parliament to distance itself from the people. The events of the next few weeks will be critical."
French Europe minister says on Sky he wouldnt welcome UK staying in the EU any more
Tough - he doesn't get a say.
He does (well, the French government does), if the UK has not passed the WA by a week on Friday.
If they exercise their choice he gets no choice if we revoke I think is the point. I wonder how Parliament would vote in a forced No Deal or Revoke choice.
I suppose there would be an extremely short (hours) period between the EU27 failing to trigger the flex extension and the UK's membership lapsing during which A50 could be revoked. However, as it's not clear that the UK govt has the power under UK law (as opposed to EU law) to do this, and as it wouldn't have the time to correct any legislative deficiencies, such a move would not help to end uncertainty.
It's an interesting point: a 10pm vote on 12th April in the HoC to Revoke, followed by a faxed letter to Junckers or Tusk, would do it. The motion could, I am sure, make clear other legal issues will be sorted in due course.
I know you will not like this but that is impossible without the HOC accepting UK EU elections before that is comsidered
I do not think the HoC have to accept them. My understanding is that only section 1A (the periodic review of constituencies) of the European Parliamentary Elections Act 2002 has been repealed to date.
If I am right the next election can just happen by order of the Secretary of State.
If someone knows better I am sure they will correct me.
this also depends upon the level of capitulation by the ERG. Add in a whole-UK backstop for example in some kind of side-letter or addendum and the DUP climb on board ...
This a bit of the jigsaw I don't understand. We have a whole-UK backstop, thanks to the negotiating prowess of Theresa May and Olly Robbins. You'd have thought that would be exactly what the DUP would want.
yebbut there are bits of the single market that NI would be caught by.
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.
The largest percentage of signatures in a Leave voting constituency is currently 14.9% in Devon Central.
I think it's a safe bet that the Lib Dems will pick up a few seats in the SW at the next GE.
Yes they could do very well, especially with a new leader.
Student fees seems like a long time ago now.
I take you havent been mugged by Universities of late.
Correct. But if you're a Tory Remainer in Devon, are you only going to blame the LDs for fees, and let that dictate your vote?
If youre a young person who has just been tucked up with £60k of debt with very little to show for it are you going to thank the LDs for stitching you up ? If youre a parent who doesnt want to see your kids sold to the modern version of indentured labour are you going to thank the LDs for that large hole your savings ?
My eldest and her partner were the first to go through under the new regime and they're fine with it. They do note "They should just have called it a graduate tax, shouldn't they?"
Anyway - "indentured labour"? Seriously?
"If you earn under the average income as a graduate, it's free. You only pay if you earn over the average, and that's only a proportion of your income over the average" ---"Why, that's indentured labour!"
oh a bit of poetic licence Mr Cooke
but yes it is a graduate tax and we are in the daft position of fining people for improving the national value of human capital. At a time were all saying we need a knowledge based workforce, we're disincentivising knowledge.
Like we "fine" people for working (income tax)? Or we "fine" companies for being successful (corporation tax)? Or we "fine" anyone who provides goods or services (VAT)?
Lots of disincentivising going on there.
This is simply taxing people twice for the same service. I take the view young people starting out in life need a break before they can accumulate some capital. If you want to buy a house or start a family having extra debt shoved on you means you have to put these off. Thats not healthy for the UK in the long run.
this also depends upon the level of capitulation by the ERG. Add in a whole-UK backstop for example in some kind of side-letter or addendum and the DUP climb on board ...
This a bit of the jigsaw I don't understand. We have a whole-UK backstop, thanks to the negotiating prowess of Theresa May and Olly Robbins. You'd have thought that would be exactly what the DUP would want.
yebbut there are bits of the single market that NI would be caught by.
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.
The largest percentage of signatures in a Leave voting constituency is currently 14.9% in Devon Central.
I think it's a safe bet that the Lib Dems will pick up a few seats in the SW at the next GE.
Yes they could do very well, especially with a new leader.
Student fees seems like a long time ago now.
I take you havent been mugged by Universities of late.
Correct. But if you're a Tory Remainer in Devon, are you only going to blame the LDs for fees, and let that dictate your vote?
If youre a young person who has just been tucked up with £60k of debt with very little to show for it are you going to thank the LDs for stitching you up ? If youre a parent who doesnt want to see your kids sold to the modern version of indentured labour are you going to thank the LDs for that large hole your savings ?
My eldest and her partner were the first to go through under the new regime and they're fine with it. They do note "They should just have called it a graduate tax, shouldn't they?"
Anyway - "indentured labour"? Seriously?
"If you earn under the average income as a graduate, it's free. You only pay if you earn over the average, and that's only a proportion of your income over the average" ---"Why, that's indentured labour!"
oh a bit of poetic licence Mr Cooke
but yes it is a graduate tax and we are in the daft position of fining people for improving the national value of human capital. At a time were all saying we need a knowledge based workforce, we're disincentivising knowledge.
Like we "fine" people for working (income tax)? Or we "fine" companies for being successful (corporation tax)? Or we "fine" anyone who provides goods or services (VAT)?
Lots of disincentivising going on there.
This is simply taxing people twice for the same service. I take the view young people starting out in life need a break before they can accumulate some capital. If you want to buy a house or start a family having extra debt shoved on you means you have to put these off. Thats not healthy for the UK in the long run.
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.
The largest percentage of signatures in a Leave voting constituency is currently 14.9% in Devon Central.
Yes, as I mentioned on Saturday I saw multiple placards at the march from Devon.
Indeed. Also, it looks like Cities of London and Westminster is about to overtake Hornsey & Wood Green as the seat with highest percentage of the electorate signing the petition.
If I were Mark Field I would be crapping myself at the figure for Cities of London & Westminster. More people have signed the revoke petition than voted for him. He's going to face a very serious challenge at the next election whenever it comes.
No it doesn't. As with May's proposal, it would probably never be triggered, but it would still remain as a backstop in case the customs union proposal was never formally agreed.
Would be amusing if the PV march and petition's impact was for Brexit to go ahead.
It may well have sharpened peoples minds....
I suspect it will still fail at the third hurdle.
Yep, it's probably too late. If the dup get on board maybe, but without them 0% chance even with them there could be enough Hard-core ERGers, and enough anti-leave MPs to make the difference
I see no sign of the DUP getting on board - it's not nearly close enough to midnight - they have bigger cajones than the ERG.
They have less to lose. They won't lose their seats, they won't split their party and they won't lose influence unless there is a general election, which they won't vote for.
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.
The largest percentage of signatures in a Leave voting constituency is currently 14.9% in Devon Central.
Yes, as I mentioned on Saturday I saw multiple placards at the march from Devon.
Indeed. Also, it looks like Cities of London and Westminster is about to overtake Hornsey & Wood Green as the seat with highest percentage of the electorate signing the petition.
If I were Mark Field I would be crapping myself at the figure for Cities of London & Westminster. More people have signed the revoke petition than voted for him. He's going to face a very serious challenge at the next election whenever it comes.
Going to reach six million sometime this evening, I think.. now running at about a million/ per 36 hours.
The largest percentage of signatures in a Leave voting constituency is currently 14.9% in Devon Central.
I think it's a safe bet that the Lib Dems will pick up a few seats in the SW at the next GE.
Yes they could do very well, especially with a new leader.
Student fees seems like a long time ago now.
I take you havent been mugged by Universities of late.
Correct. But if you're a Tory Remainer in Devon, are you only going to blame the LDs for fees, and let that dictate your vote?
If youre a young person who has just been tucked up with £60k of debt with very little to show for it are you going to thank the LDs for stitching you up ? If youre a parent who doesnt want to see your kids sold to the modern version of indentured labour are you going to thank the LDs for that large hole your savings ?
My eldest and her partner were the first to go through under the new regime and they're fine with it. They do note "They should just have called it a graduate tax, shouldn't they?"
Anyway - "indentured labour"? Seriously?
"If you earn under the average income as a graduate, it's free. You only pay if you earn over the average, and that's only a proportion of your income over the average" ---"Why, that's indentured labour!"
oh a bit of poetic licence Mr Cooke
but yes it is a graduate tax and we are in the daft position of fining people for improving the national value of human capital. At a time were all saying we need a knowledge based workforce, we're disincentivising knowledge.
Like we "fine" people for working (income tax)? Or we "fine" companies for being successful (corporation tax)? Or we "fine" anyone who provides goods or services (VAT)?
Lots of disincentivising going on there.
This is simply taxing people twice for the same service. I take the view young people starting out in life need a break before they can accumulate some capital. If you want to buy a house or start a family having extra debt shoved on you means you have to put these off. Thats not healthy for the UK in the long run.
Don't vote Tory then.
#TonysLabourParty introduced Tuition Fees in 1998!
Comments
1. No Deal cannot yet be ruled out. Parliament can pass whatever resolutions it wants, but it can only stop No Deal either by forcing the executive to revoke Article 50, the constitutional mechanism for which is unclear, or by ratifying the Withdrawal Agreement, or it can instruct the executive to ask for an extension - which may not be granted, depending on the purpose and circumstances. It's impossible to say which if any of these routes would both command a majority and be implementable in practice.
2. I'm sceptical about the 'softer Brexit' route out of the mess. Let's assume for the sake of argument that this does indeed command a majority, perhaps in the form of remaining in the customs union. The Withdrawal Agreement and backstop will remain completely unchanged, so the DUP will probably maintain their opposition, which in itself is a destabilising factor which could lead to no government at all. But let's assume we get round that, and that Theresa May relents on her absolute opposition to remaining in the customs union. The government would then have to go back to the EU to ask for a change to Political Declaration to encompass the new end-point. That would presumably take some time, although the EU would be sympathetic, and meanwhile the government would still be dependent on the ERGers. Are the latter going to lie down and accept this watering down of Brexit? And even if they do in the short term, the next stage has to be two years of detailed negotiations to turn the Political Declaration into a treaty. Is it really realistic to think this an be done by a Conservative government which doesn't believe in the end-point in the first place and where much of the Conservative Party would be implacably opposed to it? (After all, any replacement for the PM is highly unlikely to be an advocate of a softer Brexit).
3. So perhaps this points to an scenario where we ratify the WA, avoid the immediate cliff-edge, and then hold a GE to figure out what to try to do next. That would effectively nullify the 'indicative vote' of the current parliament, and replace it with... what? It's hard to see the Conservative Party campaigning on a platform of a softer Brexit than Theresa May was trying to implement. Labour probably would, but on current polling don't look likely to get a mandate to implement it - another hung parliament, and a repeat of the current squabbles, looks likely.
4. Alternatively, parliament might end up supporting a Revoke vs Deal referendum as a way out. But again we have the problem of forcing the executive, and the Conservative Party, to do something it is dead set against.
5. Will considerations like these lead MPs back to the obvious answer, which is the one Theresa May has been pointing to for months? Logic and the interests of the country say yes, but politics says no. Which perhaps takes us back to 1.
The ERGonauts now resemble polar bears clinging to a melting iceberg.
Getting to the position where we agree Norway as the option prior to the 12th, and in sufficient time for the EU to actually grant another extension (and believe we actually mean it), is exceedingly unlikely. Infinitesimal.
Student fees seems like a long time ago now.
"Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the Commons, is due to make a business statement at 12.30pm. Presumably this will cover the topic of indicative votes."
Wouldn't put it past her to say "don't ask me what's happening, I though the Letwinites were sorting it all out".
2 obvious routes:
(i) Pass the WA only. We leave. GE in late summer, winner to run with the Future Relationship.
(ii) WA blocked. GE in early summer to break the impasse. Tories run on Leave, Labour run on REF2.
I would see (i) as more probable than (ii).
Either way, a GE in 2019, which even though now into even money I still consider good value.
If youre a parent who doesnt want to see your kids sold to the modern version of indentured labour are you going to thank the LDs for that large hole your savings ?
Con 311
Lab 255
LD 22
UKIP 0
Green 1
SNP 40
NI 18
Tories 15 short of a majority.
Tories gain Canterbury.from Labour and lose Cheadle, Cheltenham, Devon N, Lewes, Richmond Park, St Albans and St Ives to the LibDems.
Bet she says "I'm going nowhere"
Hartlepool is on 2.8%...
EDIT: Walsall 1.8%
I just want to bang my head against the desk at this point.
the whole thing is an economic disaster
First that generation gets fleeced on fees, then when the money cant get repaid they get fleeced on tax to pay the unrecovered money.
maybe we could £200-300 out of your pension each month and tell you its not as bad as you thought
They do note "They should just have called it a graduate tax, shouldn't they?"
Anyway - "indentured labour"? Seriously?
"If you earn under the average income as a graduate, it's free. You only pay if you earn over the average, and that's only a proportion of your income over the average"
---"Why, that's indentured labour!"
At the very least, I would've thought a cross-party deal would still involve a long Article 50 extension, and some concrete (and more irreversible) progress on negotiating a softer Brexit, before Labour agreed to throw away their leverage by ratifying the withdrawal agreement.
The latter? Well I hardly think Tory hands are clean when it comes to student fees. Remainers will vote LD; Leavers Tory, UKIP or Brexit.
Massive generalisations there of course, lots of exceptions.
For a man who has made so much money how come he is so, well ummm, thick....
Tbf, I don't think he's stupid, just seriously misguided.
but yes it is a graduate tax and we are in the daft position of fining people for improving the national value of human capital. At a time were all saying we need a knowledge based workforce, we're disincentivising knowledge.
That is - if we were in that scenario and were explicitly going to go there, the backstop would never ever need to be invoked and everyone would know that. And that in the Norway-plus endstate, we'd still have some say in all legislation that would affect us.
Yes, i think they might be that thick.
I'd *guess* 25% of constituents = 40% of the electorate
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/1110487498562641920?s=21
If the backstop (as I understand it) a permanent requirement for NI (at least) to remain in the customs union in the absence of an agreed settlement, if you have a customs union anyway then a backstop become moot.
Or we "fine" companies for being successful (corporation tax)?
Or we "fine" anyone who provides goods or services (VAT)?
Lots of disincentivising going on there.
And that's without even pointing out that the backstop is a better version of remaining in the CU - we'd have no fees at all, and no need to implement FoM (which the EU might insist on in some softer Brexit version).
this also depends upon the level of capitulation by the ERG. Add in a whole-UK backstop for example in some kind of side-letter or addendum and the DUP climb on board.
What all this nonsense 1-6 gameshow stuff means is that, one way or another, as has been said often and at length on here, May's deal is the only game in town.
But they’re not usually contentious. Signed by Govts with a majority and swiftly passed.
Merseyside and the Scottish Central Belt probably had the highest white working-class Remain votes anywhere, but the signatures in both places are relatively low.
even with them there could be enough Hard-core ERGers, and enough anti-leave MPs to make the difference
They've been sitting there for months assuming that if they deigned to favour the deal with their attention it would be there waiting for them, that there was no urgency. What they want is people to be dependent on them at all times. I don't know that I've seen a group of MPs enjoy their power so much, even to the point of forgetting to use it properly.
A snap general election is becoming more likely. Whatever the outcome of the votes on Wednesday, the numbers inside the current remain-dominated House of Commons will not change.
It may be that an election is necessary to redress the balance in favour of MPs willing to implement the referendum result, for history suggests it is unwise for any parliament to distance itself from the people. The events of the next few weeks will be critical."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/mar/26/brexit-government-may-ignore-result-of-indicative-votes-process-says-hancock-live-news
GE supporters are worse than no deal supporters - no deal is at least some kind of plan, it is some kind of outcome, not some hopeful punt downfield which might achieve nothing.
"In NI only, specific additional EU legislation will continue to apply in areas such as VAT and excise, product standards for goods, agriculture (including state aid), the environment, and electricity markets, certain technical standards relating to goods and the EU’s Customs Code."
I think the deduction that white middle class people have signed this in droves makes sense though.
If May then Corbyn could form a coalition.
If I am right the next election can just happen by order of the Secretary of State.
If someone knows better I am sure they will correct me.
2019: 2.1 / 2.2
2020: 4.2 / 5.5
2021: 11.5 / 20
2022: 3.35 / 4.2
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.132099836
In Bob Marley parlance:
'Woman' = 'Withdrawal Agreement'.
'Cry' = 'Brexit'.