"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
IMHO, if Brexit is stopped, then rather like reneging on a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, very little will happen in the short term. In the long term, the shoe will continue to chafe, and people will end up voting for a more hardline option.
So, given BoJo's Mosaic complex, I herewith re-post my prescient theory about Brexit that I first posted past August:-
"So my theory is that Brexit is a re-run of the book of Exodus.
The Israelites are sick of being bossed around by the Egyptians. Then Moses comes to them with a plan to leave Egypt, which he’s got from a burning bush. Or perhaps it’s a burning bus, with a large monetary figure written on the side. Whatever.
Moses tells them it’s all going to be great, they’re going to be going to a land flowing with milk and honey, so they set off across the desert. Eventually they turn up in the promised land, which turns out to be yet another rather scrubby piece of desert, and Moses tells them that he’s just going off to negotiate terms for them. Off he goes for forty days and nights, and while he’s gone, the Israelites get very excited about all the new deals they’ll be able to do in future, and make themselves an effigy of a golden calf (probably they expected a bull market).
Eventually, Moses returns and tells them they’re going to have to get rid of the golden calf. He’s got a deal, of a sort, but actually, it’s all a set of rules about things they’re not allowed to do, and, by the way, they’re not allowed to question the rules either.
Still, at least they got away from those bloody foreigners bossing them around, didn’t they?"
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
It would depend on how bothered they were by the whole Brexit issue. There are hard core Leavers and Remainers, perhaps 5 million of each, and around 20 million voters who are bored of the whole thing and just want it over, not particularly caring which way it ends.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
My son, who works for an international engineering company is expectiong rioting in Brexit is overturned.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
That would be a mistake. They want us to be so alienated that we stop voting.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
Sad though it is, it's equally possible that the reshaping of politics from class to Brexit (or what Brexit is a proxy for in terms of cultural attitudes) accelerates. So put money on Tory gains in Northern working class seats and more Labour gains in London and the remainy bits of the shires?
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
So, given BoJo's Mosaic complex, I herewith re-post my prescient theory about Brexit that I first posted past August:-
"So my theory is that Brexit is a re-run of the book of Exodus.
The Israelites are sick of being bossed around by the Egyptians. Then Moses comes to them with a plan to leave Egypt, which he’s got from a burning bush. Or perhaps it’s a burning bus, with a large monetary figure written on the side. Whatever.
Moses tells them it’s all going to be great, they’re going to be going to a land flowing with milk and honey, so they set off across the desert. Eventually they turn up in the promised land, which turns out to be yet another rather scrubby piece of desert, and Moses tells them that he’s just going off to negotiate terms for them. Off he goes for forty days and nights, and while he’s gone, the Israelites get very excited about all the new deals they’ll be able to do in future, and make themselves an effigy of a golden calf (probably they expected a bull market).
Eventually, Moses returns and tells them they’re going to have to get rid of the golden calf. He’s got a deal, of a sort, but actually, it’s all a set of rules about things they’re not allowed to do, and, by the way, they’re not allowed to question the rules either.
Still, at least they got away from those bloody foreigners bossing them around, didn’t they?"
I heard once that when they crossed the Red Sea Moses commanded the Isrealites to turn left. Which they did, and eventually ended in a land flowing with milk, honey and orange groves. Had they of course turnd right they would have eventually ended up owning a load of oil wells.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
IMHO, if Brexit is stopped, then rather like reneging on a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, very little will happen in the short term. In the long term, the shoe will continue to chafe, and people will end up voting for a more hardline option.
The memory of this fiasco will deter all but the ultras for a generation. It will be like arguing for more union rights after the Winter of Discontent.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Finally an achievement for this Parliament. To be thought lower than the thieving bastards with their ridiculous expense claims is an achievement of note. A new low. Congratulations.
On the plus side other than the "we are not dishonest lying toerags, honestly" confirmatory referendum I don't think I will see another in my life time. Thank the sky fairy for that.
Mr. F, generally, I think vox pops on the news are irksome. But I still remember a Dutch voter explaining why he voted for Geert Wilders despite disliking him. The voter said the country was sick, and he preferred strong medicine to none.
I imagine that sort of thinking could be one ingredient in the recipe for the plausible rise of the far right. Teaching voters you'll renege on manifesto commitments, then, a decade later, that you'll respect their choice in a referendum and then don't, is damned silly.
I do wonder what course the EU-philes will chart. As I see it, their main options are: Revocation (via the Commons) Referendum (to secure revoke that way) Departure in name only, seeking to return immediately
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
That is what such a betrayal will create the perfect storm for a trumpesque leader to emerge
Given that we have experts on here can anyone explain how a plane destined for Germany managed to end up in Edinburgh? Would they not have had to lodge the wrong flight plan as well, otherwise they would presumably have been notified that they were off course at an early stage? How on earth could that not be noticed? How did they manage to get a landing slot at Edinburgh? It just seems really, really strange.
It was a Rudolf Hess tribute, the pilot hoped to negotiate a better deal.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
That would be a mistake. They want us to be so alienated that we stop voting.
But voting for any of them gives the winners a credibility they don't deserve. It's a dilemma.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
IMHO, if Brexit is stopped, then rather like reneging on a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, very little will happen in the short term. In the long term, the shoe will continue to chafe, and people will end up voting for a more hardline option.
The memory of this fiasco will deter all but the ultras for a generation. It will be like arguing for more union rights after the Winter of Discontent.
There will be an early opportunity in the Euro and local elections in a few weeks time.
Suspect this will be eye opening for Mr Letwin when his party doesn’t perform that well.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
Sad though it is, it's equally possible that the reshaping of politics from class to Brexit (or what Brexit is a proxy for in terms of cultural attitudes) accelerates. So put money on Tory gains in Northern working class seats and more Labour gains in London and the remainy bits of the shires?
According to Survation it is the WWC in NW, Wales etc that are the Leave to Remain switchers.
Given that we have experts on here can anyone explain how a plane destined for Germany managed to end up in Edinburgh? Would they not have had to lodge the wrong flight plan as well, otherwise they would presumably have been notified that they were off course at an early stage? How on earth could that not be noticed? How did they manage to get a landing slot at Edinburgh? It just seems really, really strange.
It was actually Boris with his plans for a flight out of Egypt that went a wee bit astray.
So what is the next stage in this farce? Presumably the Commons will vote for a second referendum or, at the least, a confirmatory referendum seeking approval of any deal that is done with an alternative of remain before departure? What will May do then?
Have the ERG worked out they've lost yet or is that still much for them to grasp? Idiots doesn't come close.
The two scenarios that seem to be rising in probability are May's deal, on the basis that the ERG and DUP finally smell the coffee, or a GE, on the basis that the clash between Parliament's preference and Government preference can't otherwise be resolved.
Problem with May's deal is that just as she wins over her extremists she is losing Labour and Tory remainer support. They now have alternatives to root for.
From here surely the DUP would want a softer, UK-wide Brexit that essentially takes the possibility of a separate status for Northern Ireland off the table - or no Brexit at all.
That said, I am now totally lost. There is no logic to any of this. All I do know is that I cannot think of another PM who has been so humiliated and emasculated, and remained in office.
There isn’t - and that is the direct consequence of May presenting a hung Parliament with a fait accompli, with barely the time to rubber stamp it, let alone make another choice.
I’ve said before that the only way out of this I can see is Norway, as it is the option which takes away the least from those who voted against Brexit, while still complying with the terms of the referendum vote. And it is a stable solution, which retains the potential for future movement in either direction, without requiring it.
I'll ask again - what is the mechanism for leaving Norway?
Maybe it's just me, but I'm getting bored with every second post being a bad pun. It was fun for a while but it's making reading the threads tedious. Maybe ease off a bit?
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
IMHO, if Brexit is stopped, then rather like reneging on a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, very little will happen in the short term. In the long term, the shoe will continue to chafe, and people will end up voting for a more hardline option.
The memory of this fiasco will deter all but the ultras for a generation. It will be like arguing for more union rights after the Winter of Discontent.
There will be an early opportunity in the Euro and local elections in a few weeks time.
Suspect this will be eye opening for Mr Letwin when his party doesn’t perform that well.
The Euros will be interesting elections, but hard to see the Tories doing well in them. We do have the Locals as a flagpost first of course.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
It would depend on how bothered they were by the whole Brexit issue. There are hard core Leavers and Remainers, perhaps 5 million of each, and around 20 million voters who are bored of the whole thing and just want it over, not particularly caring which way it ends.
Brexit has engaged millions of people in politics like nothing before it. Facebook used to be politics free until 2016, my newsfeed is now littered with pro Brexit/Tommy Robinson/Farage anti establishment links from people who I would have assumed never usually voted. Honestly in the non university educated, blue collar/tradesmen world people were already angry before yesterday.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
IMHO, if Brexit is stopped, then rather like reneging on a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, very little will happen in the short term. In the long term, the shoe will continue to chafe, and people will end up voting for a more hardline option.
The memory of this fiasco will deter all but the ultras for a generation. It will be like arguing for more union rights after the Winter of Discontent.
There will be an early opportunity in the Euro and local elections in a few weeks time.
Suspect this will be eye opening for Mr Letwin when his party doesn’t perform that well.
Tory canvassers have already been reporting difficulty on the doorsteps well before we got to Letwin.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
Trump literally boasted about the size of his manhood during one of the debates, so who is the biggest knob in British politics?
Maybe it's just me, but I'm getting bored with every second post being a bad pun. It was fun for a while but it's making reading the threads tedious. Maybe ease off a bit?
Maybe it's just me, but I'm getting bored with every second post being a bad pun. It was fun for a while but it's making reading the threads tedious. Maybe ease off a bit?
You fiend Nick, that ones so subtle I can’t fathom it!
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
It would depend on how bothered they were by the whole Brexit issue. There are hard core Leavers and Remainers, perhaps 5 million of each, and around 20 million voters who are bored of the whole thing and just want it over, not particularly caring which way it ends.
Brexit has engaged millions of people in politics like nothing before it. Facebook used to be politics free until 2016, my newsfeed is now littered with pro Brexit/Tommy Robinson/Farage anti establishment links from people who I would have assumed never usually voted. Honestly in the non university educated, blue collar/tradesmen world people were already angry before yesterday.
Be careful in the echo chamber isam.
Certainly Brexit has politically engaged millions at either end of the spectrum, but also bored rigid many others who cannot see its relevance to their lives.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
IMHO, if Brexit is stopped, then rather like reneging on a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, very little will happen in the short term. In the long term, the shoe will continue to chafe, and people will end up voting for a more hardline option.
The memory of this fiasco will deter all but the ultras for a generation. It will be like arguing for more union rights after the Winter of Discontent.
There will be an early opportunity in the Euro and local elections in a few weeks time.
Suspect this will be eye opening for Mr Letwin when his party doesn’t perform that well.
The Euros will be interesting elections, but hard to see the Tories doing well in them. We do have the Locals as a flagpost first of course.
Can't see the locals going well for the Tories. Almost any potential Tory has reason to be discontented with the shambles of the government, and a local election vote is an ideal way to make a protest without risking Corbyn. The LibDems could do very well in the South on the back of the Revoke/PV movement.
Maybe it's just me, but I'm getting bored with every second post being a bad pun. It was fun for a while but it's making reading the threads tedious. Maybe ease off a bit?
A comment by Nick Palmer of Biblical proportions .....
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
I see it completely the opposite way. I think it's Remain voters who have no reason to ever vote Conservative again and rapidly decreasing reasons to ever vote Labour again either. Though I agree with you that the end result is the same - the potential decline of the main parties.
Looks like Norway Plus or Customs Union may have a better chance as according to Benn on Wednesday MPs do not just have to vote for only one option but can vote for as many as they might be willing to support. Only if one option does not then get a majority does it go to preferences on Monday
The Spanish have already rejected the Mexican government request to apologise for Cortez' and human rights abuses committed during the invasion, preferring instead a 'constructive perspective'
I expect this will not be a good time for Dominic Grieve to seek a vote of confidence from his association.
Part of the farce here is that he and Letwin still have the Tory whip (not that that makes any difference to their behavior of course). Minority governments, eh? What a hoot.
The bigger irony is that until very recently they were viewed as entirely mainstream Tories.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
It would depend on how bothered they were by the whole Brexit issue. There are hard core Leavers and Remainers, perhaps 5 million of each, and around 20 million voters who are bored of the whole thing and just want it over, not particularly caring which way it ends.
Brexit has engaged millions of people in politics like nothing before it. Facebook used to be politics free until 2016, my newsfeed is now littered with pro Brexit/Tommy Robinson/Farage anti establishment links from people who I would have assumed never usually voted. Honestly in the non university educated, blue collar/tradesmen world people were already angry before yesterday.
Is the betrayal not Brexiting or not doing it in a certain way? I can understand the former. The latter makes much less sense.
So what is the next stage in this farce? Presumably the Commons will vote for a second referendum or, at the least, a confirmatory referendum seeking approval of any deal that is done with an alternative of remain before departure? What will May do then?
Have the ERG worked out they've lost yet or is that still much for them to grasp? Idiots doesn't come close.
The two scenarios that seem to be rising in probability are May's deal, on the basis that the ERG and DUP finally smell the coffee, or a GE, on the basis that the clash between Parliament's preference and Government preference can't otherwise be resolved.
Problem with May's deal is that just as she wins over her extremists she is losing Labour and Tory remainer support. They now have alternatives to root for.
From here surely the DUP would want a softer, UK-wide Brexit that essentially takes the possibility of a separate status for Northern Ireland off the table - or no Brexit at all.
That said, I am now totally lost. There is no logic to any of this. All I do know is that I cannot think of another PM who has been so humiliated and emasculated, and remained in office.
There isn’t - and that is the direct consequence of May presenting a hung Parliament with a fait accompli, with barely the time to rubber stamp it, let alone make another choice.
I’ve said before that the only way out of this I can see is Norway, as it is the option which takes away the least from those who voted against Brexit, while still complying with the terms of the referendum vote. And it is a stable solution, which retains the potential for future movement in either direction, without requiring it.
I'll ask again - what is the mechanism for leaving Norway?
By negotiation. It wouldn't be easy, that's for sure, though that's a feature rather than a bug. That said, it's a treaty arrangement, and not a constitutional one, so simpler than our current predicament.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
It would depend on how bothered they were by the whole Brexit issue. There are hard core Leavers and Remainers, perhaps 5 million of each, and around 20 million voters who are bored of the whole thing and just want it over, not particularly caring which way it ends.
Brexit has engaged millions of people in politics like nothing before it. Facebook used to be politics free until 2016, my newsfeed is now littered with pro Brexit/Tommy Robinson/Farage anti establishment links from people who I would have assumed never usually voted. Honestly in the non university educated, blue collar/tradesmen world people were already angry before yesterday.
Be careful in the echo chamber isam.
Certainly Brexit has politically engaged millions at either end of the spectrum, but also bored rigid many others who cannot see its relevance to their lives.
I am being careful, I was only allowed back on that proviso!
I don't particularly care which way it ends anymore but the transparent lies will rankle. The LDs I slightly excuse because they were honest from the start. Anti-democratic but honestly so.
But to lie so brazenly is not just dishonest, but insultingly so. "Oh, they're stupid, most will swallow this bollocks." You may suspect they're lying but you tend to give them the benefit of the doubt. No more. At my age, I should have known better, I suppose.
Could the MPs vote to have jobs for life by abolishing elections? Do they have the power? That way, they won't face any come-uppance. Would any legal experts like to comment?
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
That is what such a betrayal will create the perfect storm for a trumpesque leader to emerge
We will have to make do with an anti-semite taking us to the promised land of Venezeula.
The high-pitched whining from well to-do Remainers as their world crashes and burns will only be audible to dogs and dolphins.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
IMHO, if Brexit is stopped, then rather like reneging on a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, very little will happen in the short term. In the long term, the shoe will continue to chafe, and people will end up voting for a more hardline option.
The memory of this fiasco will deter all but the ultras for a generation. It will be like arguing for more union rights after the Winter of Discontent.
There will be an early opportunity in the Euro and local elections in a few weeks time.
Suspect this will be eye opening for Mr Letwin when his party doesn’t perform that well.
Tory canvassers have already been reporting difficulty on the doorsteps well before we got to Letwin.
How are things going in Newport West? Any serious indicators as to the result. Actual canvassing for actual votes.
And how about the recall petition in Peterborough.
Finally, a triumph for democracy as the People's Representatives seek to overturn the decadent populism of the electorate.
Given how things have progressed generally, I anticipate the worst possible outcome (probably leaving in name only, with a campaign to rejoin and be shackled into the single currency. Oh, and the rise of the far right).
If we leave in name only e.g. single market or customs union that will likely be what we end up with in perpetuity ie an associate membership of the EU and a campaign to rejoin will die a death. Rejoininf with the Single Currency etc is more likely with No Deal or EUref2 and a big Remain win
I see it completely the opposite way. I think it's Remain voters who have no reason to ever vote Conservative again and rapidly decreasing reasons to ever vote Labour again either. Though I agree with you that the end result is the same - the potential decline of the main parties.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
IMHO, if Brexit is stopped, then rather like reneging on a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, very little will happen in the short term. In the long term, the shoe will continue to chafe, and people will end up voting for a more hardline option.
The memory of this fiasco will deter all but the ultras for a generation. It will be like arguing for more union rights after the Winter of Discontent.
There will be an early opportunity in the Euro and local elections in a few weeks time.
Suspect this will be eye opening for Mr Letwin when his party doesn’t perform that well.
Tory canvassers have already been reporting difficulty on the doorsteps well before we got to Letwin.
After forty-odd years, my days of door-knocking for the Conservative Party are no more.
I wouldn't have a clue what to say. "Vote for us, we really aren't as shite as the other lot, despite all the evidence pointing to the contrary..." is hardly going to cut it.
Mr. F, generally, I think vox pops on the news are irksome. But I still remember a Dutch voter explaining why he voted for Geert Wilders despite disliking him. The voter said the country was sick, and he preferred strong medicine to none.
I imagine that sort of thinking could be one ingredient in the recipe for the plausible rise of the far right. Teaching voters you'll renege on manifesto commitments, then, a decade later, that you'll respect their choice in a referendum and then don't, is damned silly.
I do wonder what course the EU-philes will chart. As I see it, their main options are: Revocation (via the Commons) Referendum (to secure revoke that way) Departure in name only, seeking to return immediately
Departure is departure; it is a legal event. There is no such thing as 'in name only', which is simply a slogan coined by the mendacious.
Given that we have experts on here can anyone explain how a plane destined for Germany managed to end up in Edinburgh? Would they not have had to lodge the wrong flight plan as well, otherwise they would presumably have been notified that they were off course at an early stage? How on earth could that not be noticed? How did they manage to get a landing slot at Edinburgh? It just seems really, really strange.
I'd just like to know why nobody was actually checking boarding passes. Gross breach of security.
Seems bizarre, you would expect gate would have said Edinburgh , as you say boarding passes , pilots logs and air traffic control. Very bizarre indeed.
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
It would depend on how bothered they were by the whole Brexit issue. There are hard core Leavers and Remainers, perhaps 5 million of each, and around 20 million voters who are bored of the whole thing and just want it over, not particularly caring which way it ends.
Brexit has engaged millions of people in politics like nothing before it. Facebook used to be politics free until 2016, my newsfeed is now littered with pro Brexit/Tommy Robinson/Farage anti establishment links from people who I would have assumed never usually voted. Honestly in the non university educated, blue collar/tradesmen world people were already angry before yesterday.
Is the betrayal not Brexiting or not doing it in a certain way? I can understand the former. The latter makes much less sense.
Not Brexiting, I have said dozens of times I would have accpeted any deal any PM struck, even Camerons Remain deal, but MPs should not have got a vote on it.
Then we have a GE and each party can outline their vision of life outside the EU, giving the next PM a mandate for their manifesto.
But what has happened here is such a disgrace. It was so predictable yet I just couldnt believe they would have the nerve to do it.
So what is the next stage in this farce? Presumably the Commons will vote for a second referendum or, at the least, a confirmatory referendum seeking approval of any deal that is done with an alternative of remain before departure? What will May do then?
Have the ERG worked out they've lost yet or is that still much for them to grasp? Idiots doesn't come close.
The two scenarios that seem to be rising in probability are May's deal, on the basis that the ERG and DUP finally smell the coffee, or a GE, on the basis that the clash between Parliament's preference and Government preference can't otherwise be resolved.
Problem with May's deal is that just as she wins over her extremists she is losing Labour and Tory remainer support. They now have alternatives to root for.
From here surely the DUP would want a softer, UK-wide Brexit that essentially takes the possibility of a separate status for Northern Ireland off the table - or no Brexit at all.
That said, I am now totally lost. There is no logic to any of this. All I do know is that I cannot think of another PM who has been so humiliated and emasculated, and remained in office.
There isn’t - and that is the direct consequence of May presenting a hung Parliament with a fait accompli, with barely the time to rubber stamp it, let alone make another choice.
I’ve said before that the only way out of this I can see is Norway, as it is the option which takes away the least from those who voted against Brexit, while still complying with the terms of the referendum vote. And it is a stable solution, which retains the potential for future movement in either direction, without requiring it.
I'll ask again - what is the mechanism for leaving Norway?
By negotiation. It wouldn't be easy, that's for sure, though that's a feature rather than a bug. That said, it's a treaty arrangement, and not a constitutional one, so simpler than our current predicament.
So as I expected, no "Article 50" equivalent. We can't just walk away from it when the voters wake up and go "You f*cking WHAT????"
Good Lord that video has been so discredited its like admitting liking Michael Jackson! Even if it werent edited to exclude context, No deal would have been less of a betrayal then not leaving
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
My son works for network rail and everyone he works with say they will never vote again if brexit is betrayed . The contempt for politicians has fallen to rock bottom
Who will be the British Trump I wonder? The opportunity is now huuuuuuuge
That is what such a betrayal will create the perfect storm for a trumpesque leader to emerge
The British system makes this difficult. First of all, we have a monarch, not a president. (Halleluyah.) Second, FPTP makes it difficult for a new party to achieve power (though once one does get over 30% it has a good chance of "breaking the mould".) So the main avenue towards such a leader is via Tories/Labour. Maybe Boris? But I'm sceptical that such a leader would help his party to victory.
Good Lord that video has been so discredited its like admitting liking Michael Jackson! Even if it werent edited to exclude context, No deal would have been less of a betrayal then not leaving
Discrdited? Thsese guys are saying those words are they not?
So what is the next stage in this farce? Presumably the Commons will vote for a second referendum or, at the least, a confirmatory referendum seeking approval of any deal that is done with an alternative of remain before departure? What will May do then?
Have the ERG worked out they've lost yet or is that still much for them to grasp? Idiots doesn't come close.
The two scenarios that seem to be rising in probability are May's deal, on the basis that the ERG and DUP finally smell the coffee, or a GE, on the basis that the clash between Parliament's preference and Government preference can't otherwise be resolved.
Problem with May's deal is that just as she wins over her extremists she is losing Labour and Tory remainer support. They now have alternatives to root for.
From here surely the DUP would want a softer, UK-wide Brexit that essentially takes the possibility of a separate status for Northern Ireland off the table - or no Brexit at all.
That said, I am now totally lost. There is no logic to any of this. All I do know is that I cannot think of another PM who has been so humiliated and emasculated, and remained in office.
There isn’t - and that is the direct consequence of May presenting a hung Parliament with a fait accompli, with barely the time to rubber stamp it, let alone make another choice.
I’ve said before that the only way out of this I can see is Norway, as it is the option which takes away the least from those who voted against Brexit, while still complying with the terms of the referendum vote. And it is a stable solution, which retains the potential for future movement in either direction, without requiring it.
I'll ask again - what is the mechanism for leaving Norway?
Good question. Any treaty tying the UK into an indefinite backstop is worse than either Revoke or leaving before agreeing our future relationship with the EU. The only way that you can get the backstop off the table is to force the EU's hand by leaving first and starting negotiations afresh from there.
So what is the next stage in this farce? Presumably the Commons will vote for a second referendum or, at the least, a confirmatory referendum seeking approval of any deal that is done with an alternative of remain before departure? What will May do then?
Have the ERG worked out they've lost yet or is that still much for them to grasp? Idiots doesn't come close.
The two scenarios that seem to be rising in probability are May's deal, on the basis that the ERG and DUP finally smell the coffee, or a GE, on the basis that the clash between Parliament's preference and Government preference can't otherwise be resolved.
Problem with May's deal is that just as she wins over her extremists she is losing Labour and Tory remainer support. They now have alternatives to root for.
From here surely the DUP would want a softer, UK-wide Brexit that essentially takes the possibility of a separate status for Northern Ireland off the table - or no Brexit at all.
That said, I am now totally lost. There is no logic to any of this. All I do know is that I cannot think of another PM who has been so humiliated and emasculated, and remained in office.
There isn’t - and that is the direct consequence of May presenting a hung Parliament with a fait accompli, with barely the time to rubber stamp it, let alone make another choice.
I’ve said before that the only way out of this I can see is Norway, as it is the option which takes away the least from those who voted against Brexit, while still complying with the terms of the referendum vote. And it is a stable solution, which retains the potential for future movement in either direction, without requiring it.
I'll ask again - what is the mechanism for leaving Norway?
By negotiation. It wouldn't be easy, that's for sure, though that's a feature rather than a bug. That said, it's a treaty arrangement, and not a constitutional one, so simpler than our current predicament.
So as I expected, no "Article 50" equivalent. We can't just walk away from it when the voters wake up and go "You f*cking WHAT????"
Maybe it's just me, but I'm getting bored with every second post being a bad pun. It was fun for a while but it's making reading the threads tedious. Maybe ease off a bit?
The weariness of the voters is definitely a factor.
In the short term, I no longer care how it ends as long as it does. But MPs will take years to be trusted again, if ever. Let's remain then as a memorial to the lying creatures that slither, and lie to one and all, in the HoC.
Good Lord that video has been so discredited its like admitting liking Michael Jackson! Even if it werent edited to exclude context, No deal would have been less of a betrayal then not leaving
Discrdited? Thsese guys are saying those words are they not?
So what is the next stage in this farce? Presumably the Commons will vote for a second referendum or, at the least, a confirmatory referendum seeking approval of any deal that is done with an alternative of remain before departure? What will May do then?
Have the ERG worked out they've lost yet or is that still much for them to grasp? Idiots doesn't come close.
The two scenarios that seem to be rising in probability are May's deal, on the basis that the ERG and DUP finally smell the coffee, or a GE, on the basis that the clash between Parliament's preference and Government preference can't otherwise be resolved.
Problem with May's deal is that just as she wins over her extremists she is losing Labour and Tory remainer support. They now have alternatives to root for.
From here surely the DUP would want a softer, UK-wide Brexit that essentially takes the possibility of a separate status for Northern Ireland off the table - or no Brexit at all.
That said, I am now totally lost. There is no logic to any of this. All I do know is that I cannot think of another PM who has been so humiliated and emasculated, and remained in office.
There isn’t - and that is the direct consequence of May presenting a hung Parliament with a fait accompli, with barely the time to rubber stamp it, let alone make another choice.
I’ve said before that the only way out of this I can see is Norway, as it is the option which takes away the least from those who voted against Brexit, while still complying with the terms of the referendum vote. And it is a stable solution, which retains the potential for future movement in either direction, without requiring it.
I'll ask again - what is the mechanism for leaving Norway?
By negotiation. It wouldn't be easy, that's for sure, though that's a feature rather than a bug. That said, it's a treaty arrangement, and not a constitutional one, so simpler than our current predicament.
So as I expected, no "Article 50" equivalent. We can't just walk away from it when the voters wake up and go "You f*cking WHAT????"
Norway is a horror show waiting to open.
What international treaties of significance can we 'just walk away from' ? You are setting an absurd test.
And for someone prepared to contemplate No Deal (which I believe you are ?), it is a ridiculous critique.
I'll ask again - what is the mechanism for leaving Norway?
I believe there is a 6 month notice period on both sides to cancel the whole thing. We're not likely to be in the EEA on the same terms as Norway in my opinion. The EU are tightening up their arrangements.
The weariness of the voters is definitely a factor.
In the short term, I no longer care how it ends as long as it does. But MPs will take years to be trusted again, if ever. Let's remain then as a memorial to the lying creatures that slither, and lie to one and all, in the HoC.
A tourist attraction for a different reason.
"I fear a British Donald Trump. I fear such a person will steal the slogans of the Right and the merciless, dishonest propaganda methods of the Left – as the US President has done. I fear that the rise of such a figure is the likely outcome of the catastrophe caused by David Cameron’s folly in calling a referendum, and everyone else’s folly – of walking into such an obvious trap. It barely matters now how the whole thing ends. The sense of disappointment and betrayal now abroad is here to stay. A lot of people are not going to be forgiven for their part in the EU referendum fiasco."
I don't particularly care which way it ends anymore but the transparent lies will rankle. The LDs I slightly excuse because they were honest from the start. Anti-democratic but honestly so.
But to lie so brazenly is not just dishonest, but insultingly so. "Oh, they're stupid, most will swallow this bollocks." You may suspect they're lying but you tend to give them the benefit of the doubt. No more. At my age, I should have known better, I suppose.
Could the MPs vote to have jobs for life by abolishing elections? Do they have the power? That way, they won't face any come-uppance. Would any legal experts like to comment?
They do. Although I suspect that the PM might prorogue or the Queen intervene
The decline in the number of self-reported leave voters in the sample over time is the most interesting thing here, and I think the interpretation of the top line depends on what is driving that. It can't all be down to the grim reaper (sorry Leavers, I am not celebrating it or putting it on a tea towel but your chaps do have a tendency to die). So is the survey failing to properly sample the population so that Leavers are under-represented? You'd assume they have tried their best to get a representative sample, and as I understand it these guys are good at this. So is it down to false recall? Some Leavers so embarrassed by the current shambles that they have forgotten they voted for it? If this is the explanation then could other samples that weight by Leave vs Remain be over-weighting the Leave voters? That's potentially very bad news for the Tories. Any theories as to what's going on?
I don't particularly care which way it ends anymore but the transparent lies will rankle. The LDs I slightly excuse because they were honest from the start. Anti-democratic but honestly so.
But to lie so brazenly is not just dishonest, but insultingly so. "Oh, they're stupid, most will swallow this bollocks." You may suspect they're lying but you tend to give them the benefit of the doubt. No more. At my age, I should have known better, I suppose.
Could the MPs vote to have jobs for life by abolishing elections? Do they have the power? That way, they won't face any come-uppance. Would any legal experts like to comment?
The decline in the number of self-reported leave voters in the sample over time is the most interesting thing here, and I think the interpretation of the top line depends on what is driving that. It can't all be down to the grim reaper (sorry Leavers, I am not celebrating it or putting it on a tea towel but your chaps do have a tendency to die). So is the survey failing to properly sample the population so that Leavers are under-represented? You'd assume they have tried their best to get a representative sample, and as I understand it these guys are good at this. So is it down to false recall? Some Leavers so embarrassed by the current shambles that they have forgotten they voted for it? If this is the explanation then could other samples that weight by Leave vs Remain be over-weighting the Leave voters? That's potentially very bad news for the Tories. Any theories as to what's going on?
I'd go with false recall. It's always harder to find people who recall supporting the losing side.
My mother is a case in point. She told me on referendum day she reluctantly voted Remain, worried about the implications of Brexit. Several times subsequently she has assured me she voted leave. We haven't spoken about it recently; I will have to see if she has switched her recall back again now.
3 minutes more than they used to spend talking about Politics on the train I would say.
Its also why opinion polls get it wrong so often. People like those overheard on the train never show up in them, but their votes are worth the same amount as anyone on here, and there are several million more of them.
3 minutes more than they used to spend talking about Politics on the train I would say. The academics are so out of touch they make my point for me
Re "They all still think we're leaving on 29 March..."
There are going to be a lot of anecdotal reports from the weekend onwards along the lines of: "There you are see, all that fuss about chaos after we leave Europe and it's all fine!"
The decline in the number of self-reported leave voters in the sample over time is the most interesting thing here, and I think the interpretation of the top line depends on what is driving that. It can't all be down to the grim reaper (sorry Leavers, I am not celebrating it or putting it on a tea towel but your chaps do have a tendency to die). So is the survey failing to properly sample the population so that Leavers are under-represented? You'd assume they have tried their best to get a representative sample, and as I understand it these guys are good at this. So is it down to false recall? Some Leavers so embarrassed by the current shambles that they have forgotten they voted for it? If this is the explanation then could other samples that weight by Leave vs Remain be over-weighting the Leave voters? That's potentially very bad news for the Tories. Any theories as to what's going on?
I'd go with false recall. It's always harder to find people who recall supporting the losing side.
My mother is a case in point. She told me on referendum day she reluctantly voted Remain, worried about the implications of Brexit. Several times subsequently she has assured me she voted leave. We haven't spoken about it recently; I will have to see if she has switched her recall back again now.
"But more than 10 years of opposition is a long time, and many people now remember things differently. Now only 37% of the public say they believed military action against Saddam Hussein was right at the time, instead of the 54% recorded at the time."
The decline in the number of self-reported leave voters in the sample over time is the most interesting thing here, and I think the interpretation of the top line depends on what is driving that. It can't all be down to the grim reaper (sorry Leavers, I am not celebrating it or putting it on a tea towel but your chaps do have a tendency to die). So is the survey failing to properly sample the population so that Leavers are under-represented? You'd assume they have tried their best to get a representative sample, and as I understand it these guys are good at this. So is it down to false recall? Some Leavers so embarrassed by the current shambles that they have forgotten they voted for it? If this is the explanation then could other samples that weight by Leave vs Remain be over-weighting the Leave voters? That's potentially very bad news for the Tories. Any theories as to what's going on?
I'd go with false recall. It's always harder to find people who recall supporting the losing side.
My mother is a case in point. She told me on referendum day she reluctantly voted Remain, worried about the implications of Brexit. Several times subsequently she has assured me she voted leave. We haven't spoken about it recently; I will have to see if she has switched her recall back again now.
Yeah I also think that is the most likely explanation, or at least the biggest factor. But don't regular polls weight by referendum vote? Isn't that a big problem if people systematically mis-remember how they voted? Is it possible to track people's recall over time in some of the panels, eg YouGov? (edited for typo).
"Which is why there will probably be a referendum at the end, to confirm the voters' preference."
The result of that referendum is irrelevant. It's the simple five-letter word that will endure. That is TRUST.
They cannot be trusted to keep their word, and once that is gone, we may as well have dictatorship. Manifestos are just words, solemn promises are only hot air. They knowingly lie and they make no apology for it. We can carry on voting but if you don't know who they represent, they may as well be cardboard cut-outs.
The only upside from this betrayal is we know there is circa 50% of the nations voters who will be fired up to wreak revenge at the next GE... this has to be the end of one of the main parties, why would any leave voter ever back one of them again?
IMHO, if Brexit is stopped, then rather like reneging on a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, very little will happen in the short term. In the long term, the shoe will continue to chafe, and people will end up voting for a more hardline option.
The memory of this fiasco will deter all but the ultras for a generation. It will be like arguing for more union rights after the Winter of Discontent.
There will be an early opportunity in the Euro and local elections in a few weeks time.
Suspect this will be eye opening for Mr Letwin when his party doesn’t perform that well.
Tory canvassers have already been reporting difficulty on the doorsteps well before we got to Letwin.
After forty-odd years, my days of door-knocking for the Conservative Party are no more.
I wouldn't have a clue what to say. "Vote for us, we really aren't as shite as the other lot, despite all the evidence pointing to the contrary..." is hardly going to cut it.
At the end of the day both big parties only exist because of the door knockers. If people like you give up we all lose out. Please carry on!
Huh. If only there was a way to change the Parliamentary arithmetic...
They are both accurate comments
You don’t have the time to change Parliament (in his view) and if you don’t change Parliament there’s no point in changing PM
If it changes the whipping priorities, it changes the arithmetic. May uses her payroll to block alternatives to her deal. If the payroll got behind a better plan B it would make a difference.
After listening to some of the debate from the HOC yesterday I turned to my wife and said
'Why listen to these incompetent mps acting like unruly children when we can have a wonderful time, intelligent chat and just utter joy with our grandchildren 5 and 7 who were with us'
From that time until now we have not listened or watched the news, had a great quiet evening, and waking up to the news that a coup is taking place in the HOC and ERG members pushing the panic button is funny if it was not serious. You could not make this up. The answer is in plain sight
Comments
"So my theory is that Brexit is a re-run of the book of Exodus.
The Israelites are sick of being bossed around by the Egyptians. Then Moses comes to them with a plan to leave Egypt, which he’s got from a burning bush. Or perhaps it’s a burning bus, with a large monetary figure written on the side. Whatever.
Moses tells them it’s all going to be great, they’re going to be going to a land flowing with milk and honey, so they set off across the desert. Eventually they turn up in the promised land, which turns out to be yet another rather scrubby piece of desert, and Moses tells them that he’s just going off to negotiate terms for them. Off he goes for forty days and nights, and while he’s gone, the Israelites get very excited about all the new deals they’ll be able to do in future, and make themselves an effigy of a golden calf (probably they expected a bull market).
Eventually, Moses returns and tells them they’re going to have to get rid of the golden calf. He’s got a deal, of a sort, but actually, it’s all a set of rules about things they’re not allowed to do, and, by the way, they’re not allowed to question the rules either.
Still, at least they got away from those bloody foreigners bossing them around, didn’t they?"
On the plus side other than the "we are not dishonest lying toerags, honestly" confirmatory referendum I don't think I will see another in my life time. Thank the sky fairy for that.
I imagine that sort of thinking could be one ingredient in the recipe for the plausible rise of the far right. Teaching voters you'll renege on manifesto commitments, then, a decade later, that you'll respect their choice in a referendum and then don't, is damned silly.
I do wonder what course the EU-philes will chart. As I see it, their main options are:
Revocation (via the Commons)
Referendum (to secure revoke that way)
Departure in name only, seeking to return immediately
Suspect this will be eye opening for Mr Letwin when his party doesn’t perform that well.
https://www.survation.com/what-does-the-british-public-now-think-about-brexit/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-47701876
Certainly Brexit has politically engaged millions at either end of the spectrum, but also bored rigid many others who cannot see its relevance to their lives.
https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1110441490831077376
Which I gather Mr Blunt prefers....
That said, it's a treaty arrangement, and not a constitutional one, so simpler than our current predicament.
I don't particularly care which way it ends anymore but the transparent lies will rankle. The LDs I slightly excuse because they were honest from the start. Anti-democratic but honestly so.
But to lie so brazenly is not just dishonest, but insultingly so. "Oh, they're stupid, most will swallow this bollocks." You may suspect they're lying but you tend to give them the benefit of the doubt. No more. At my age, I should have known better, I suppose.
Could the MPs vote to have jobs for life by abolishing elections? Do they have the power? That way, they won't face any come-uppance. Would any legal experts like to comment?
The high-pitched whining from well to-do Remainers as their world crashes and burns will only be audible to dogs and dolphins.
And how about the recall petition in Peterborough.
I see it completely the opposite way. I think it's Remain voters who have no reason to ever vote Conservative again and rapidly decreasing reasons to ever vote Labour again either. Though I agree with you that the end result is the same - the potential decline of the main parties.
I wouldn't have a clue what to say. "Vote for us, we really aren't as shite as the other lot, despite all the evidence pointing to the contrary..." is hardly going to cut it.
There is no such thing as 'in name only', which is simply a slogan coined by the mendacious.
Then we have a GE and each party can outline their vision of life outside the EU, giving the next PM a mandate for their manifesto.
But what has happened here is such a disgrace. It was so predictable yet I just couldnt believe they would have the nerve to do it.
Norway is a horror show waiting to open.
https://twitter.com/Alan_McGuinness/status/1110449110702833665
https://twitter.com/Alan_McGuinness/status/1110449275798990848
Huh. If only there was a way to change the Parliamentary arithmetic...
In the short term, I no longer care how it ends as long as it does. But MPs will take years to be trusted again, if ever. Let's remain then as a memorial to the lying creatures that slither, and lie to one and all, in the HoC.
A tourist attraction for a different reason.
You are setting an absurd test.
And for someone prepared to contemplate No Deal (which I believe you are ?), it is a ridiculous critique.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6843465/PETER-HITCHENS-fear-British-Trump-wholl-crush-civilisation.html
https://twitter.com/alexandrabulat/status/1110326676821630977
https://twitter.com/alexandrabulat/status/1110327555859628033
https://twitter.com/alexandrabulat/status/1110328007238078464
https://twitter.com/alexandrabulat/status/1110329295417729024
https://twitter.com/alexandrabulat/status/1110330126284271616
It can't all be down to the grim reaper (sorry Leavers, I am not celebrating it or putting it on a tea towel but your chaps do have a tendency to die). So is the survey failing to properly sample the population so that Leavers are under-represented? You'd assume they have tried their best to get a representative sample, and as I understand it these guys are good at this.
So is it down to false recall? Some Leavers so embarrassed by the current shambles that they have forgotten they voted for it? If this is the explanation then could other samples that weight by Leave vs Remain be over-weighting the Leave voters? That's potentially very bad news for the Tories. Any theories as to what's going on?
My mother is a case in point. She told me on referendum day she reluctantly voted Remain, worried about the implications of Brexit. Several times subsequently she has assured me she voted leave. We haven't spoken about it recently; I will have to see if she has switched her recall back again now.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB A massive problem for the government appears to be that there has been a shit in opinion since 2016. https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1110443949775298562
You don’t have the time to change Parliament (in his view) and if you don’t change Parliament there’s no point in changing PM
There are going to be a lot of anecdotal reports from the weekend onwards along the lines of:
"There you are see, all that fuss about chaos after we leave Europe and it's all fine!"
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2015/06/03/remembering-iraq
'Why listen to these incompetent mps acting like unruly children when we can have a wonderful time, intelligent chat and just utter joy with our grandchildren 5 and 7 who were with us'
From that time until now we have not listened or watched the news, had a great quiet evening, and waking up to the news that a coup is taking place in the HOC and ERG members pushing the panic button is funny if it was not serious. You could not make this up. The answer is in plain sight
Pass TM deal and leave on the 22nd May
Exciting news that should Labour win the next election the Treasury will be sent back to school to learn about Marxist economics.
That'll teach em...