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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we approach the slightly later than planned day of reckonin

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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    GIN1138 said:

    So we keep hearing yet day by day the Tories mismanagement of the country gets worse.

    So much so we've now reached a point where after spending two years telling the world we're leaving the EU on 29th March the whole thing is called off and kicked into the never, never with one week to go.

    There is absolutely no way Jezza could turn the country into this big of an international laughing stock...

    You don't seem to have noticed that it is Jezza and his pals in the ERG who have prevented an orderly implementation of Brexit and left us in crisis. It's bizarre, verging on bonkers, to blame Mrs May for the parliamentary voting record of the opposition and of rebels defying her whip.

    Meanwhile the actual management of the country and especially the economy is (to everyone's surprise, including mine) remarkably good.
    Had May played with a straight bat absolutely. But May has obfuscated and tried to play as many tricks as the ERG and Corbyn.

    After delaying the December vote May deserves no forgiveness or latitude.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    The FT backed Kinnock for PM in 1992, enough said about its political judgement or lack of it!

    You feel that it worked out well with John Major?
    Major is a much underestimated PM as his successors have proved
    He had a number of virtues. But the Conservatives would have been better off if Kinnock had won.
    Maybe, maybe not, the country certainly would not
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Corbyn could get elected . A no deal mess is his best bet . Angry people want someone to blame and the Tories own Brexit .

    I’d be worried if I was Bozo . The Heathrow issue and his support for Leave and with no deal will make his 5000 majority look very flimsy .
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,261
    MaxPB said:

    So after having a night out on the town, it seems clear that no one other than the political obsessives give a flying fuck about brexit. Even in the most remainer place in the country (Old Street) no one seemed to care. I met one guy (a friend of a friend) who was going to the peoples's march, everyone else was in the "who really gives a fuck" bracket.

    From what I could tell, everyone wants a resolution and few people care what the resolution is, deal, a revoke or no deal.


    They'll give a f*** when there is no food in Waitrose other than turnips.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,826
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Norm said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Norm said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    39/39/10, without TIG.

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    Interesting. Suggests a failure to deliver Brexit would sink the Tories
    The Tories are already sunk (and have been for a while) - And rightfully so. Hopefully they'll be out of office for 30 years like they were after the Corn Laws impasse.

    The only question now is how big Jezza's majority will be...
    Not necessarily. The Tories polling has held up partly because of the Corbyn factor but also because the public believe(d) they would deliver Brexit. More pertinately the public are now at the end of their tether over Brexit and I suspect a significant delay now will see their ratings go into freefall.
    Wonder when the first poll taking them under 30% will occur?
    It won't, plus remember most Tory MPs have already voted to keep No Deal on the table and to not extend Art 50 and leave on March 29th, we are only leaving because most Labour, LD and SNP MPs voted to extend Art 50 and rule out No Deal, joined by a minority of Tory MPs
    You can't spend two years telling the world that your country is leaving the EU on 29th March and then with one week to go push departure into the never, never and not expect to take a major hit.

    It's a total shambles quite honestly. It's a complete embarrassment.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    dots said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    May has got a Withdrawal Agreement which will still likely be the basis of Brexit itself, even if the future relationship ends up more SM and CU BINO.

    The Washington Post is a Brexit hating, Trump hating liberal globalist paper, in my lifetime Brown was certainly worse than May
    ROFL. May is in her league of her own. Anthony Eden is smiling now.
    Eden, Heath, Callaghan, Brown were all worse PMs than May in my view. At the end of the day she got the Withdrawal Agreement and if it ends up a bit more BINO than she intended, so be it, she will have delivered Brexit without catastrophe and can depart with dignity and leave someone else to negotiate the future relationship
    May is by far the worst in my lifetime. By far. She lost me entirely the moment she chose brinkmanship to force her deal, effectively holding the nation to ransom. Very poor, if not dangerous.
    To be fair May she tried to honour the core aims of most Leavers ie leave the EU, the Single Market and end free movement and leave the Customs Union and also to get an agreement and lay the ground for a future trade deal with the EU. She has managed to do so albeit with a temporary Customs Union backstop. The fact the diehards in her party refused to accept even minor compromise with the EU putting purity above all and the fact it seems a majority in Parliament will only accept a BINO stay in the SM and CU Brexit if it is to accept any Brexit at all is not her fault but theirs
    You are all talking about her as if she is dead. ☹️

    In a couple of weeks time she can still be there presiding over a clean brexit break with EU, delivering brexit.
    At the moment the best she can hope for is to get her WA through but Parliament will likely ensure the future relationship heads towards BINO
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    So after having a night out on the town, it seems clear that no one other than the political obsessives give a flying fuck about brexit. Even in the most remainer place in the country (Old Street) no one seemed to care. I met one guy (a friend of a friend) who was going to the peoples's march, everyone else was in the "who really gives a fuck" bracket.

    From what I could tell, everyone wants a resolution and few people care what the resolution is, deal, a revoke or no deal.


    They'll give a f*** when there is no food in Waitrose other than turnips.
    I seriously doubt it.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344



    I've no idea why she even bothered to make that statement, which was ill-judged and bizarre. She would have done much better just to have gone to bed.

    However, the reaction of MPs was utterly childish, totally irresponsible if it has affected their votes in a matter of grave national importance. Are we really saddled with MPs who behave like 13-year olds and go off in a strop at this crucial moment because their egos weren't properly stroked? (Yes, I'm afraid we are).

    Some MPs. Most are just doggedly trying to work out what's best, and one can make a case that they reflect the divided public quite precisely. As with voters, all the attention is going on the swing voters amd the mock-swing voters (like the DUP, who are always poised to almost agree), and people like Letwin and Cooper who are actively trying to find a way forward are lumped in with the childish ones.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited March 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dots said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    39/39/10, without TIG.

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    LOL! A majority want to LEAVE in one weeks time and the moronic Tories after spending two ******* years telling the world we're leaving on 29th March have now called it off.

    What a complete and utter shower of shit.
    The main reason May's deal needs to pass, we will get Corbyn now
    Current polling and gut instinct really telling you that?
    No brexit = Tory freefall
    If the Tories revoke Brexit or hold a second referendum, that's an extinction event for them.

    If they're thrown out of office by a Commons which then does this, that's a very different matter.
    No deal would also be an extinction-level event after a few months, looking at the latest cabinet office leaks. The Tory party in its current form is unlikely to survive either way, I think.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2019
    nico67 said:

    Corbyn could get elected . A no deal mess is his best bet . Angry people want someone to blame and the Tories own Brexit .

    I’d be worried if I was Bozo . The Heathrow issue and his support for Leave and with no deal will make his 5000 majority look very flimsy .

    Most Leavers vote Tory and back No Deal, most Remainers already vote Labour. No Deal is not Corbyn's best bet, revoke Brexit is as Tory Leavers could shift to UKIP or the Brexit Party, however I expect in those circumstances the Tories would pick Boris as leader quick smart to keep Leavers in the tent
  • Options
    dotsdots Posts: 615
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dots said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    39/39/10, without TIG.

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    LOL! A majority want to LEAVE in one weeks time and the moronic Tories after spending two ******* years telling the world we're leaving on 29th March have now called it off.

    What a complete and utter shower of shit.
    The main reason May's deal needs to pass, we will get Corbyn now
    Current polling and gut instinct really telling you that?
    No brexit = Tory freefall
    It won't be No Brexit, more likely BINO and of course most Tory MPs have voted to keep No Deal on the table and against extending Article 50 anyway
    A clean no deal brexit won’t be Tory freefall, because the Tory members and supporters will either love it or get behind as it is brexit. But a clean no deal brexit rips the Labour Party to shreds.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Norm said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Norm said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    39/39/10, without TIG.

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    Interesting. Suggests a failure to deliver Brexit would sink the Tories
    The Tories are already sunk (and have been for a while) - And rightfully so. Hopefully they'll be out of office for 30 years like they were after the Corn Laws impasse.

    The only question now is how big Jezza's majority will be...
    Not necessarily. The Tories polling has held up partly because of the Corbyn factor but also because the public believe(d) they would deliver Brexit. More pertinately the public are now at the end of their tether over Brexit and I suspect a significant delay now will see their ratings go into freefall.
    Wonder when the first poll taking them under 30% will occur?
    It won't, plus remember most Tory MPs have already voted to keep No Deal on the table and to not extend Art 50 and leave on March 29th, we are only leaving because most Labour, LD and SNP MPs voted to extend Art 50 and rule out No Deal, joined by a minority of Tory MPs
    You can't spend two years telling the world that your country is leaving the EU on 29th March and then with one week to go push departure into the never, never and not expect to take a major hit.

    It's a total shambles quite honestly. It's a complete embarrassment.
    I repeat as you obviously did not read it the first time, we are only not leaving on Friday as Labour, LD and SNP MPs voted for extension and to take No Deal off the table, with a minority of Tory MPs joining them. Most Tory MPs voted to leave on Friday and against extending Article 50 and to keep No Deal on the table. We have a hung parliament so the Tories alone cannot ensure Brexit happens on time, that depends on the DUP, Labour, the LDs, TIG, the SNP, the Greens etc too
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    MaxPB said:

    So after having a night out on the town, it seems clear that no one other than the political obsessives give a flying fuck about brexit. Even in the most remainer place in the country (Old Street) no one seemed to care. I met one guy (a friend of a friend) who was going to the peoples's march, everyone else was in the "who really gives a fuck" bracket.

    From what I could tell, everyone wants a resolution and few people care what the resolution is, deal, a revoke or no deal.


    They'll give a f*** when there is no food in Waitrose other than turnips.
    Even if the world were to blockade the UK, there would be more than turnips in supermarkets.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited March 2019
    dots said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dots said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    39/39/10, without TIG.

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    LOL! A majority want to LEAVE in one weeks time and the moronic Tories after spending two ******* years telling the world we're leaving on 29th March have now called it off.

    What a complete and utter shower of shit.
    The main reason May's deal needs to pass, we will get Corbyn now
    Current polling and gut instinct really telling you that?
    No brexit = Tory freefall
    It won't be No Brexit, more likely BINO and of course most Tory MPs have voted to keep No Deal on the table and against extending Article 50 anyway
    A clean no deal brexit won’t be Tory freefall, because the Tory members and supporters will either love it or get behind as it is brexit. But a clean no deal brexit rips the Labour Party to shreds.
    The Tory members do not represent the bulk of leave or Tory voters. Many are not expecting significant pain, whatever Theresa May may think.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    dots said:


    A clean no deal brexit won’t be Tory freefall, because the Tory members and supporters will either love it or get behind as it is brexit. But a clean no deal brexit rips the Labour Party to shreds.

    They won't love it, they'll love the idea, and hate the reality, and they'll blame the difference on government incompetence.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2019

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dots said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    39/39/10, without TIG.

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    LOL! A majority want to LEAVE in one weeks time and the moronic Tories after spending two ******* years telling the world we're leaving on 29th March have now called it off.

    What a complete and utter shower of shit.
    The main reason May's deal needs to pass, we will get Corbyn now
    Current polling and gut instinct really telling you that?
    No brexit = Tory freefall
    If the Tories revoke Brexit or hold a second referendum, that's an extinction event for them.

    If they're thrown out of office by a Commons which then does this, that's a very different matter.
    No deal would also be an extinction-level event after a few months, looking at the latest cabinet office leaks. The Tory party in its current form is unlikely to survive either way, I think.
    I expect Parliament will end up voting for BINO but once May goes I expect a No Dealer like Boris or Raab will become Tory leader and some of the remaining Remainer diehards in the Party will defect to TIG and join Soubry, Allen etc.


    We will then have a clear divide between a No Deal Tory Party, a pro Remain, reverse Brexit or BINO TIG/LD Party and Corbyn's Labour Party

  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,826
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Norm said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Norm said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    39/39/10, without TIG.

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    Interesting. Suggests a failure to deliver Brexit would sink the Tories
    The Tories are already sunk (and have been for a while) - And rightfully so. Hopefully they'll be out of office for 30 years like they were after the Corn Laws impasse.

    The only question now is how big Jezza's majority will be...
    Not necessarily. The Tories polling has held up partly because of the Corbyn factor but also because the public believe(d) they would deliver Brexit. More pertinately the public are now at the end of their tether over Brexit and I suspect a significant delay now will see their ratings go into freefall.
    Wonder when the first poll taking them under 30% will occur?
    It won't, plus remember most Tory MPs have already voted to keep No Deal on the table and to not extend Art 50 and leave on March 29th, we are only leaving because most Labour, LD and SNP MPs voted to extend Art 50 and rule out No Deal, joined by a minority of Tory MPs
    You can't spend two years telling the world that your country is leaving the EU on 29th March and then with one week to go push departure into the never, never and not expect to take a major hit.

    It's a total shambles quite honestly. It's a complete embarrassment.
    I repeat as you obviously did not read it the first time, we are only not leaving on Friday as Labour, LD and SNP MPs voted for extension and to take No Deal off the table, with a minority of Tory MPs joining them. Most Tory MPs voted to leave on Friday and against extending Article 50 and to keep No Deal on the table. We have a hung parliament so the Tories alone cannot ensure Brexit happens on time, that depends on the DUP, Labour, the LDs, TIG, the SNP, the Greens etc too
    You can repeat as many times as you like. Doesn't change the fact the May and the Tories are in government and therefore they own this total shambles. Nobody else.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    dots said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dots said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    39/39/10, without TIG.

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    LOL! A majority want to LEAVE in one weeks time and the moronic Tories after spending two ******* years telling the world we're leaving on 29th March have now called it off.

    What a complete and utter shower of shit.
    The main reason May's deal needs to pass, we will get Corbyn now
    Current polling and gut instinct really telling you that?
    No brexit = Tory freefall
    It won't be No Brexit, more likely BINO and of course most Tory MPs have voted to keep No Deal on the table and against extending Article 50 anyway
    A clean no deal brexit won’t be Tory freefall, because the Tory members and supporters will either love it or get behind as it is brexit. But a clean no deal brexit rips the Labour Party to shreds.
    Labour would just commit to BINO or EUref2, there are very few No Dealers in Labour
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Norm said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Norm said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    39/39/10, without TIG.

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    Interesting. Suggests a failure to deliver Brexit would sink the Tories
    The Tories are already sunk (and have been for a while) - And rightfully so. Hopefully they'll be out of office for 30 years like they were after the Corn Laws impasse.

    The only question now is how big Jezza's majority will be...
    Not necessarily. The Tories polling has held up partly because of the Corbyn factor but also because the public believe(d) they would deliver Brexit. More pertinately the public are now at the end of their tether over Brexit and I suspect a significant delay now will see their ratings go into freefall.
    Wonder when the first poll taking them under 30% will occur?
    It won't, plus remember most Tory MPs have already voted to keep No Deal on the table and to not extend Art 50 and leave on March 29th, we are only leaving because most Labour, LD and SNP MPs voted to extend Art 50 and rule out No Deal, joined by a minority of Tory MPs
    You can't spend two years telling the world that your country is leaving the EU on 29th March and then with one week to go push departure into the never, never and not expect to take a major hit.

    It's a total shambles quite honestly. It's a complete embarrassment.
    I repeat as you obviously did not read it the first time, we are only not leaving on Friday as Labour, LD and SNP MPs voted for extension and to take No Deal off the table, with a minority of Tory MPs joining them. Most Tory MPs voted to leave on Friday and against extending Article 50 and to keep No Deal on the table. We have a hung parliament so the Tories alone cannot ensure Brexit happens on time, that depends on the DUP, Labour, the LDs, TIG, the SNP, the Greens etc too
    You can repeat as many times as you like. Doesn't change the fact the May and the Tories are in government and therefore they own this total shambles. Nobody else.
    So you keep insisting, yet so even polls today show the Tories at least neck and neck with Corbyn Labour.


    As I said if Corbyn gets in it will be on the back of the SNP, not with a majority
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,261

    dots said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dots said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    39/39/10, without TIG.

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    LOL! A majority want to LEAVE in one weeks time and the moronic Tories after spending two ******* years telling the world we're leaving on 29th March have now called it off.

    What a complete and utter shower of shit.
    The main reason May's deal needs to pass, we will get Corbyn now
    Current polling and gut instinct really telling you that?
    No brexit = Tory freefall
    It won't be No Brexit, more likely BINO and of course most Tory MPs have voted to keep No Deal on the table and against extending Article 50 anyway
    A clean no deal brexit won’t be Tory freefall, because the Tory members and supporters will either love it or get behind as it is brexit. But a clean no deal brexit rips the Labour Party to shreds.
    The Tory members do not represent the bulk of leave or Tory voters. Many are not expecting significant pain, whatever Theresa May may think.
    As I have said before, the Leavers who admit to voting for this f*** up will be like snow in April, once the actual realities come home to roost.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    dots said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dots said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    39/39/10, without TIG.

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    LOL! A majority want to LEAVE in one weeks time and the moronic Tories after spending two ******* years telling the world we're leaving on 29th March have now called it off.

    What a complete and utter shower of shit.
    The main reason May's deal needs to pass, we will get Corbyn now
    Current polling and gut instinct really telling you that?
    No brexit = Tory freefall
    It won't be No Brexit, more likely BINO and of course most Tory MPs have voted to keep No Deal on the table and against extending Article 50 anyway
    A clean no deal brexit won’t be Tory freefall, because the Tory members and supporters will either love it or get behind as it is brexit. But a clean no deal brexit rips the Labour Party to shreds.
    The Tory members do not represent the bulk of leave or Tory voters. Many are not expecting significant pain, whatever Theresa May may think.
    As I have said before, the Leavers who admit to voting for this f*** up will be like snow in April, once the actual realities come home to roost.
    What if the terrors of the earth don't materialise?
  • Options
    dotsdots Posts: 615
    HYUFD said:

    dots said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    May has got a Withdrawal Agreement which will still likely be the basis of Brexit itself, even if the future relationship ends up more SM and CU BINO.

    The Washington Post is a Brexit hating, Trump hating liberal globalist paper, in my lifetime Brown was certainly worse than May
    ROFL. May is in her league of her own. Anthony Eden is smiling now.
    Eden, Heath, Callaghan, Brown were all worse PMs than May in my view.
    May is by far the worst in my lifetime. By far. She lost me entirely the moment she chose brinkmanship to force her deal, effectively holding the nation to ransom. Very poor, if not dangerous.
    To be fair May she tried to honour the core aims of most Leavers ie leave the EU, the Single Market and end free movement and leave the Customs Union and also to get an agreement and lay the ground for a future trade deal with the EU. She has managed to do so albeit with a temporary Customs Union backstop. The fact the diehards in her party refused to accept even minor compromise with the EU putting purity above all and the fact it seems a majority in Parliament will only accept a BINO stay in the SM and CU Brexit if it is to accept any Brexit at all is not her fault but theirs
    You are all talking about her as if she is dead. ☹️

    In a couple of weeks time she can still be there presiding over a clean brexit break with EU, delivering brexit.
    At the moment the best she can hope for is to get her WA through but Parliament will likely ensure the future relationship heads towards BINO
    My reading of is it completely different. In the silent staring at each other during May’s presentation both May and EU realised in their mind the other is unbothered by no deal, it’s simply the case of avoiding the blame. Softly softly stitch up monkey. Like musical chairs where you can’t be in wrong place when music stops.

    Both May’s government and EU unbothered by no deal. All this indicative vote trash is just waste of time, the only two options are pass WA and move on or go into no deal exit.

    there is no revoke button on Theresa May’s desk. There is a “certain destruction of the Tory Party through Civil War” button no Conservative leader will press (some wag has put a post it note on top “certain death of Nigel Farage button, due to sudden and perpetual orgasm”)

    The only hope to avoid no deal is Peston calling it as no deal.
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Corbyn could get elected . A no deal mess is his best bet . Angry people want someone to blame and the Tories own Brexit .

    I’d be worried if I was Bozo . The Heathrow issue and his support for Leave and with no deal will make his 5000 majority look very flimsy .

    Most Leavers vote Tory and back No Deal, most Remainers already vote Labour. No Deal is not Corbyn's best bet, revoke Brexit is as Tory Leavers could shift to UKIP or the Brexit Party, however I expect in those circumstances the Tories would pick Boris as leader quick smart to keep Leavers in the tent
    It all depends on how no deal works out . If it’s a disaster no dealers will just blame those who said it was all going to be fine , in which case that’s on the ERG and the Tories would be the ones going for no deal .

    Do you seriously think if Leavers end up suffering they’ll say fine I still believe in no deal. I can’t see anyway we see a revocation . As a Remainer I couldn’t support that . Any referendum that delivered Brexit can only be changed by a further vote . I would be seriously concerned for politics and democracy in the UK if that happened .

    The only way to move forward is with a deal . A no deal or revocation would be a tragedy that will cause even deeper division .
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dots said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    39/39/10, without TIG.

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    LOL! A majority want to LEAVE in one weeks time and the moronic Tories after spending two ******* years telling the world we're leaving on 29th March have now called it off.

    What a complete and utter shower of shit.
    The main reason May's deal needs to pass, we will get Corbyn now
    Current polling and gut instinct really telling you that?
    No brexit = Tory freefall
    If the Tories revoke Brexit or hold a second referendum, that's an extinction event for them.

    If they're thrown out of office by a Commons which then does this, that's a very different matter.
    No deal would also be an extinction-level event after a few months, looking at the latest cabinet office leaks. The Tory party in its current form is unlikely to survive either way, I think.
    Yet we were told that there would be a certain year long recession immediately after a Leave vote.

    That's not to say there wouldn't be detrimental effects of a No Deal exit and unnecessary ones at that.

    But people who predict certain doom and disaster are perhaps letting their own personal feelings influence them.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,261
    " it is like a one night stand.”

    Tory MP on not so secret leadership race.

    No doubt now that Mogg will be Boris's CoE.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/22/jeremy-hunt-seeks-woo-tory-mps-private-dinner-nicknamed-continuity/
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,261
    Sean_F said:

    dots said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dots said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    39/39/10, without TIG.

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    LOL! A majority want to LEAVE in one weeks time and the moronic Tories after spending two ******* years telling the world we're leaving on 29th March have now called it off.

    What a complete and utter shower of shit.
    The main reason May's deal needs to pass, we will get Corbyn now
    Current polling and gut instinct really telling you that?
    No brexit = Tory freefall
    It won't be No Brexit, more likely BINO and of course most Tory MPs have voted to keep No Deal on the table and against extending Article 50 anyway
    A clean no deal brexit won’t be Tory freefall, because the Tory members and supporters will either love it or get behind as it is brexit. But a clean no deal brexit rips the Labour Party to shreds.
    The Tory members do not represent the bulk of leave or Tory voters. Many are not expecting significant pain, whatever Theresa May may think.
    As I have said before, the Leavers who admit to voting for this f*** up will be like snow in April, once the actual realities come home to roost.
    What if the terrors of the earth don't materialise?
    Then, I will be wrong and will be on PB holding my hand up.

  • Options
    dotsdots Posts: 615
    Sean_F said:

    dots said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dots said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    39/39/10, without TIG.

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    LOL! A majority want to LEAVE in one weeks time and the moronic Tories after spending two ******* years telling the world we're leaving on 29th March have now called it off.

    What a complete and utter shower of shit.
    The main reason May's deal needs to pass, we will get Corbyn now
    Current polling and gut instinct really telling you that?
    No brexit = Tory freefall
    It won't be No Brexit, more likely BINO and of course most Tory MPs have voted to keep No Deal on the table and against extending Article 50 anyway
    A clean no deal brexit won’t be Tory freefall, because the Tory members and supporters will either love it or get behind as it is brexit. But a clean no deal brexit rips the Labour Party to shreds.
    The Tory members do not represent the bulk of leave or Tory voters. Many are not expecting significant pain, whatever Theresa May may think.
    As I have said before, the Leavers who admit to voting for this f*** up will be like snow in April, once the actual realities come home to roost.
    What if the terrors of the earth don't materialise?
    I think that is a good argument. Even with the clean break brexit, after a few months teething problems or after a year in, it might not seem so bad at all.
    The real threat of brexit was to take comparisons from 5 and 10 years down the line to see how it changes us over time, hastening deindustrialistion and globalisation Quicker than we can mitigate the downsides. That’s what the sheer weight of economists were suggesting.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    dots said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dots said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    39/39/10, without TIG.

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    LOL! A majority want to LEAVE in one weeks time and the moronic Tories after spending two ******* years telling the world we're leaving on 29th March have now called it off.

    What a complete and utter shower of shit.
    The main reason May's deal needs to pass, we will get Corbyn now
    Current polling and gut instinct really telling you that?
    No brexit = Tory freefall
    It won't be No Brexit, more likely BINO and of course most Tory MPs have voted to keep No Deal on the table and against extending Article 50 anyway
    A clean no deal brexit won’t be Tory freefall, because the Tory members and supporters will either love it or get behind as it is brexit. But a clean no deal brexit rips the Labour Party to shreds.
    The Tory members do not represent the bulk of leave or Tory voters. Many are not expecting significant pain, whatever Theresa May may think.
    As I have said before, the Leavers who admit to voting for this f*** up will be like snow in April, once the actual realities come home to roost.
    The 'realities' are Parliament will likely vote for Single Market and Customs Union BINO next week
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101

    " it is like a one night stand.”

    Tory MP on not so secret leadership race.

    No doubt now that Mogg will be Boris's CoE.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/22/jeremy-hunt-seeks-woo-tory-mps-private-dinner-nicknamed-continuity/

    I doubt that a Boris-Mogg government would survive until the next Budget.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,005
    Charles said:



    They borrowed my office for Bridget Jones’ Diary.

    Somehow that sounds less impressive 🤣

    I can be seen lurking in the background of some of the flight deck scenes the dreadful Owen Wilson film Behind Enemy Lines.

    I was also approached on the streets of Mumbai to play an English officer as extra in a Bollywood film on the strength of my George V beard but declined the opportunity.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2019
    dots said:

    HYUFD said:

    dots said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    May has got a Withdrawal Agreement which will still likely be the basis of Brexit itself, even if the future relationship ends up more SM and CU BINO.

    The Washington Post is a Brexit hating, Trump hating liberal globalist paper, in my lifetime Brown was certainly worse than May
    ROFL. May is in her league of her own. Anthony Eden is smiling now.
    Eden, Heath, Callaghan, Brown were all worse PMs than May in my view.
    May is by far the worst in my lifetime. By far. She lost me entirely the moment she chose brinkmanship to force her deal, effectively holding the nation to ransom. Very poor, if not dangerous.
    To be fair May she tried to honour the core aims of most Leavers ie leave the EU, the Single Market and end free mbut theirs
    You are all talking about her as if she is dead. ☹️

    In a couple of weeks time she can still be there presiding over a clean brexit break with EU, delivering brexit.
    At the moment the best she can hope for is to get her WA through but Parliament will likely ensure the future relationship heads towards BINO
    My reading of is it completely different. In the silent staring at each other during May’s presentation both May and EU realised in their mind the other is unbothered by no deal, it’s simply the case of avoiding the blame. Softly softly stitch up monkey. Like musical chairs where you can’t be in wrong place when music stops.

    Both May’s government and EU unbothered by no deal. All this indicative vote trash is just waste of time, the only two options are pass WA and move on or go into no deal exit.

    there is no revoke button on Theresa May’s desk. There is a “certain destruction of the Tory Party through Civil War” button no Conservative leader will press (some wag has put a post it note on top “certain death of Nigel Farage button, due to sudden and perpetual orgasm”)

    The only hope to avoid no deal is Peston calling it as no deal.
    No, there is no majority in Parliament for No Deal, end of conversation. The EU know that and do not want No Deal either hence they have extended to allow Parliament to enable BINO.

    On Monday Letwin and Benn will pass, indicative votes will be held, now almost certainly with government support if MV3 fails and if the Deal does not pass it will be BINO Brexit or even no Brexit at all
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,261
    Sean_F said:

    dots said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dots said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    39/39/10, without TIG.

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    LOL! A majority want to LEAVE in one weeks time and the moronic Tories after spending two ******* years telling the world we're leaving on 29th March have now called it off.

    What a complete and utter shower of shit.
    The main reason May's deal needs to pass, we will get Corbyn now
    Current polling and gut instinct really telling you that?
    No brexit = Tory freefall
    It won't be No Brexit, more likely BINO and of course most Tory MPs have voted to keep No Deal on the table and against extending Article 50 anyway
    A clean no deal brexit won’t be Tory freefall, because the Tory members and supporters will either love it or get behind as it is brexit. But a clean no deal brexit rips the Labour Party to shreds.
    The Tory members do not represent the bulk of leave or Tory voters. Many are not expecting significant pain, whatever Theresa May may think.
    As I have said before, the Leavers who admit to voting for this f*** up will be like snow in April, once the actual realities come home to roost.
    What if the terrors of the earth don't materialise?
    Nice touch of Shakespeare there though. :smiley:

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,971
    New thread!!
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,261
    Night all.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2019
    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Corbyn could get elected . A no deal mess is his best bet . Angry people want someone to blame and the Tories own Brexit .

    I’d be worried if I was Bozo . The Heathrow issue and his support for Leave and with no deal will make his 5000 majority look very flimsy .

    Most Leavers vote Tory and back No Deal, most Remainers already vote Labour. No Deal is not Corbyn's best bet, revoke Brexit is as Tory Leavers could shift to UKIP or the Brexit Party, however I expect in those circumstances the Tories would pick Boris as leader quick smart to keep Leavers in the tent
    It all depends on how no deal works out . If it’s a disaster no dealers will just blame those who said it was all going to be fine , in which case that’s on the ERG and the Tories would be the ones going for no deal .

    Do you seriously think if Leavers end up suffering they’ll say fine I still believe in no deal. I can’t see anyway we see a revocation . As a Remainer I couldn’t support that . Any referendum that delivered Brexit can only be changed by a further vote . I would be seriously concerned for politics and democracy in the UK if that happened .

    The only way to move forward is with a deal . A no deal or revocation would be a tragedy that will cause even deeper division .
    I agree we need a deal but most No Dealers are fanatics, every bit as ideological and uncompromising as Corbynistas or Nats
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101

    Sean_F said:

    dots said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dots said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    39/39/10, without TIG.

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    LOL! A majority want to LEAVE in one weeks time and the moronic Tories after spending two ******* years telling the world we're leaving on 29th March have now called it off.

    What a complete and utter shower of shit.
    The main reason May's deal needs to pass, we will get Corbyn now
    Current polling and gut instinct really telling you that?
    No brexit = Tory freefall
    It won't be No Brexit, more likely BINO and of course most Tory MPs have voted to keep No Deal on the table and against extending Article 50 anyway
    A clean no deal brexit won’t be Tory freefall, because the Tory members and supporters will either love it or get behind as it is brexit. But a clean no deal brexit rips the Labour Party to shreds.
    The Tory members do not represent the bulk of leave or Tory voters. Many are not expecting significant pain, whatever Theresa May may think.
    As I have said before, the Leavers who admit to voting for this f*** up will be like snow in April, once the actual realities come home to roost.
    What if the terrors of the earth don't materialise?
    Then, I will be wrong and will be on PB holding my hand up.

    Yet PB is rather thin on people holding up their hand for pedaling the Project Fear lines before the Referendum.
  • Options
    dotsdots Posts: 615
    HYUFD said:

    dots said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dots said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    39/39/10, without TIG.

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    LOL! A majority want to LEAVE in one weeks time and the moronic Tories after spending two ******* years telling the world we're leaving on 29th March have now called it off.

    What a complete and utter shower of shit.
    The main reason May's deal needs to pass, we will get Corbyn now
    Current polling and gut instinct really telling you that?
    No brexit = Tory freefall
    It won't be No Brexit, more likely BINO and of course most Tory MPs have voted to keep No Deal on the table and against extending Article 50 anyway
    A clean no deal brexit won’t be Tory freefall, because the Tory members and supporters will either love it or get behind as it is brexit. But a clean no deal brexit rips the Labour Party to shreds.
    Labour would just commit to BINO or EUref2, there are very few No Dealers in Labour
    You misunderstand me. The conservatives engineer the clean brexit, the party which suffers most will be labour, its supporters and members will flee the party’s disasterous failure.

    There is no such thing as Norway-, common market 2.0, it’s all vassalage+. Labour don’t have a brexit policy. Nor do the ERG as they didn’t all get behind the Canada+ launch. Even if MPs did agree a coherent plan in next three weeks, Parliament doesn’t have any power. The executive government won the last election and have the power, vote down the WA and this goes to clean brexit in April.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited March 2019
    dots said:

    HYUFD said:

    dots said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dots said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    39/39/10, without TIG.

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    LOL! A majority want to LEAVE in one weeks time and the moronic Tories after spending two ******* years telling the world we're leaving on 29th March have now called it off.

    What a complete and utter shower of shit.
    The main reason May's deal needs to pass, we will get Corbyn now
    Current polling and gut instinct really telling you that?
    No brexit = Tory freefall
    It won't be No Brexit, more likely BINO and of course most Tory MPs have voted to keep No Deal on the table and against extending Article 50 anyway
    A clean no deal brexo shreds.
    Labour would just commit to BINO or EUref2, there are very few No Dealers in Labour
    You misunderstand me. The conservatives engineer the clean brexit, the party which suffers most will be labour, its supporters and members will flee the party’s disasterous failure.

    There is no such thing as Norway-, common market 2.0, it’s all vassalage+. Labour don’t have a brexit policy. Nor do the ERG as they didn’t all get behind the Canada+ launch. Even if MPs did agree a coherent plan in next three weeks, Parliament doesn’t have any power. The executive government won the last election and have the power, vote down the WA and this goes to clean brexit in April.
    We have a hung parliament and at least 20 to 30 Tory MPs who will not allow No Deal under any circumstances whatsoever, so the Conservatives cannot engineer clean Brexit.

    You completely misread the situation, it is May who now has virtually no power and none at all if MV3 fails, thanks to the EU extension all the power lies with Parliament and indicative votes which leads only to Norway Plus, single market and/Or Customs Union BINO. Even May has conceded if MV3 fails she will have to allow indicative votes and let the Commons decide Brexit or indeed No Brexit at all.

    The executive Governmemt lost the last general election, we have a hung parliament, that is the whole point. Vote down the WA again and Parliament will just tag on SM and Customs Union BINO to it as the basis of the future political declaration and then pass it. 'Clean No Deal Brexit' is dead and always has been after the 2017 general election, end of conversation
  • Options
    dotsdots Posts: 615
    edited March 2019
    HYUFD said:

    dots said:

    HYUFD said:

    dots said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dots said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    .

    On the EU, 41% wish to Leave on 29th March, 36% wish to delay.
    LOL! A majority want to LEAVE in one weeks time and the moronic Tories after spending two ******* years telling the world we're leaving on 29th March have now called it off.

    What a complete and utter shower of shit.
    The main reason May's deal needs to pass, we will get Corbyn now
    Current polling and gut instinct really telling you that?
    No brexit = Tory freefall
    It won't be No Brexit, more likely BINO and of course most Tory MPs have voted to keep No Deal on the table and against extending Article 50 anyway
    A clean no deal brexo shreds.
    You misunderstand me. The conservatives engineer the clean brexit, the party which suffers most will be labour, its supporters and members will flee the party’s disasterous failure.

    There is no such thing as Norway-, common market 2.0, it’s all vassalage+. Labour don’t have a brexit policy. Even if MPs did agree a coherent plan in next three weeks, Parliament doesn’t have any power. The executive government won the last election and have the power, vote down the WA and this goes to clean brexit in April.
    We have a hung parliament and at least 20 to 30 Tory MPs who will not allow No Deal under any circumstances whatsoever, so the Conservatives cannot engineer clean Brexit.

    You completely misread the situation, it is May who now has virtually no power and none at all if MV3 fails, thanks to the EU extension all the power lies with Parliament and indicative votes which leads only to Norway Plus, single market and/Or Customs Union BINO. Even May has conceded if MV3 fails she will have to allow indicative votes and let the Commons decide Brexit or indeed No Brexit at all.

    The executive Governmemt lost the last general election, we have a hung parliament, that is the whole point. Vote down the WA again and Parliament will just tag on SM and Customs Union BINO to it as the basis of the future political declaration and then pass it. 'Clean No Deal Brexit' is dead and always has been after the 2017 general election, end of conversation
    I’m still convinced I’m right. Clean brexit isn’t engineered by anybody from here. IT ALREADY HAS BEEN. It’s whether it can be stopped.

    Conversation on that continues.
This discussion has been closed.