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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we approach the slightly later than planned day of reckonin

SystemSystem Posts: 12,172
edited March 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we approach the slightly later than planned day of reckoning

Has Britain finally reached a decision point? Still the outcome seems in doubt. Many others are writing about what comes next. But how did we get here?

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Last
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited March 2019
    1st, unless it is delayed until 23rd May

    It appears it is now after last and no longer first.

    This is very much like Brexit
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Are MPs going to take the matter out of her hands, and if so how? Last week the motion proposed by Hillary Benn to allow Parliament to take control of the process failed by two votes. Will MPs find a way to try again? If they do, will they take that opportunity?

    They've already voted on this, so I'm not sure they can do so again.

    *innocent face*
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    edited March 2019
    Sean_F said:

    FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.

    Colour me less than shocked that tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,146
    FPT

    Greg Clark announced that TM will bring in indicative votes next week

    I hope she has finally decided to back the grown ups and abandon the ludicrous ERG
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.

    Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.
    He does have the air of Captain Mainwaring about him.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.

    Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.
    It never occurred to him that voting against Brexit made Brexit less likely (or a soft Brexit more likely).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.

    The DUP are crying No Surrender.

    They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.

    No flowers...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1109121882312396801
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/1109121959659474945
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    Curse of the new thread:
    TheValiant said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    The 12th is the hard deadline

    The deal would take us to 22nd May but you cannot revoke post 12th April because we will not have taken part in the EU elections as confirmed by Angela Merkel

    Again, I ask why. Again, let's say the Deal is accepted right?

    So, what position is the UK between 13th April 2019 and 22nd May 2019.
    Are we a member state of the EU or not?
    If we are, we MUST be able to revoke.

    Yes it 'breaks' the EU elections, in which case, if we take the Deal we MUST prepare for them, presumably?
  • PoliticsSchmoliticsPoliticsSchmolitics Posts: 25
    Surely if there's a no confidence vote next week some tories would be tempted to abstain but what kind of psychopath would actually want to be PM right now?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FPT

    Greg Clark announced that TM will bring in indicative votes next week

    I hope she has finally decided to back the grown ups and abandon the ludicrous ERG

    Except it seems from twitter that No. 10 now pouring cold water all over this.

    I am hopelessly lost now.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Scott_P said:

    The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.

    The DUP are crying No Surrender.

    They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.

    No flowers...

    I dare say the Dupper bigots will be delighted with Remain/Norway+ as Sean F says on the earlier thread. It will allow them to keep their perennial sense of grievance and spout their vitriol while keeping the NI economy afloat.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    AlastairMeeks said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.

    Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.
    He does have the air of Captain Mainwaring about him.
    May's abject performance before the EU ruled out "No deal" on March 30th... but it could still reappear by April 12th, it isn't completely out the running yet.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Scott_P said:

    The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.

    The DUP are crying No Surrender.

    They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.

    No flowers...

    They aren't going to get any Brexit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    FPT
    bigjohnowls said:

    I see #CorbynsCustomsUnion is the least disliked outcome.

    Also seen as a good outcome by more than Tin Ears Deal Or No Deal

    Amusingly it is legally identical to May's deal
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FPT

    Greg Clark announced that TM will bring in indicative votes next week

    I hope she has finally decided to back the grown ups and abandon the ludicrous ERG

    Except it seems from twitter that No. 10 now pouring cold water all over this.

    I am hopelessly lost now.
    You, me and the PM.....
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    FPT

    While a delay and soft Brexit might be the only option left it does of course spell huge trouble for the Tory Party as Michael Portillo said on TW last night. The notion the 70% Leave voting activist, membership and voter base will take kindly to a set of Euro elections and a long delay to Brexit is for the birds.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    ralphmalph said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Anorak said:

    Aaaaany minut now, they'll realise that the EU caving on Brexit is the only thing that will save them. Soon. Very soon...
    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1109092601624444928

    Germany biggest export industry is capital goods, and the slowdown in China is dramatically impacting demand

    See https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/deu/
    Yes and if you look at the export destinations for goods in 2017 7.1% went to China and 6.8% went to the UK. Seeing as we are stockpiling at the moment, it can be assumed that we have bought forward demand for German goods. When we reverse this process and if China keeps slowing down I can only see it getting worse for Germany short term. Which also means it gets worse for the countries that supply the German export machine with intra-EU trade.
    I think that's right.

    But with a huge caveat. Germany has proposed - for the first time in a decade - an expansionary budget. Spending is increasing, while taxes are being reduced. In total the effect should be about a 1% boost to GDP. (Which is small change compared to President Trump's budget, but is massive for Germany.)

    So, all in all, I'd expect that the "core" Germany economy will probably slow from growth of 1.7-1.8% to perhaps just 0.2-0.3%, but this will be largely offset by government spending and tax cuts. My estimate: GDP growth of 1.2-1.3% in 2019.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Is this the #CorbynsCustomsUnion thread?
  • PoliticsSchmoliticsPoliticsSchmolitics Posts: 25
    Will we survive until the end of next week without at least one cabinet resignation? Hard to see how everyone stays on board after MV3 fails.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    Norm said:

    FPT

    While a delay and soft Brexit might be the only option left it does of course spell huge trouble for the Tory Party as Michael Portillo said on TW last night. The notion the 70% Leave voting activist, membership and voter base will take kindly to a set of Euro elections and a long delay to Brexit is for the birds.

    Which is why the ERG should not be making these things happen.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    PoliticsSchmolitics said:

    Will we survive until the end of next week without at least one cabinet resignation? Hard to see how everyone stays on board after MV3 fails.

    It depends whether their leadership prospects would be enhanced or not.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Out Canvassing tomorrow.

    Its a bad time BREXIT and Local Elections don't mix
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1109125868553674754
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Scott_P said:

    The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.

    The DUP are crying No Surrender.

    They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.

    No flowers...

    IMO the DUP will not be sorry to lose the option of a hard Brexit, especially as there are plenty of others who can take the blame for losing it. Their base is motivated primarily by Irish/sectarian issues and almost all of them want to prevent a hard border in any case. They will not change their votes if hard Brexit, or even Brexit itself, is lost.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited March 2019
    AlastairMeeks said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.

    Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.
    He does have the air of Captain Mainwaring about him.
    More Chief Warden Hodges.......

    Pike is already cast......

    Captain Mainwaring: Mrs May - those leadership & communication skills....
    Lance Corporal Jones: The BDS Crew (Grayling/Adonis/Grieve/Soubry)
    Sergeant Wilson: Ken Clarke
    Private Walker: David Davis/Boris
    Private Godfrey: Chris Grayling
    Private Fraser: Corbyn
    Rev Timothy Farthing MA (Oxon): Letwin
    Maurice Yeatman (Verger): Gove
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Sean_F said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.

    Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.
    It never occurred to him that voting against Brexit made Brexit less likely (or a soft Brexit more likely).
    If only there had been some sort of clue...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Do opinion polls suggest more Conservative voters want May's deal or No deal?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Re the last thread, I can't imagine a sentence of a year or more being imposed. His explanation that he was (correctly) told he could split the bill between the two accounts and made up two half-invoices himself instead of asking the photographer to do it properly makes him sound like a slapdash idiot, but not a serious criminal who needs to be locked up.

    And yes I know he's a Tory and it'd be an interesting by-election, but fairness and proportionality still matter.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    bigjohnowls said:

    Out Canvassing tomorrow.

    Its a bad time BREXIT and Local Elections don't mix

    I'll be marching tomorrow. There is only one issue on the agenda at the moment.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Palmer, that's an alarming level of nuance from a recent politician ;)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    NickPalmer said:

    Re the last thread, I can't imagine a sentence of a year or more being imposed. His explanation that he was (correctly) told he could split the bill between the two accounts and made up two half-invoices himself instead of asking the photographer to do it properly makes him sound like a slapdash idiot, but not a serious criminal who needs to be locked up.

    And yes I know he's a Tory and it'd be an interesting by-election, but fairness and proportionality still matter.

    If that's the case it doesn't sound like fraud at all to me. Incompetence yes.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Do opinion polls suggest more Conservative voters want May's deal or No deal?

    If you'll accept petition signatures, current totals are:

    REVOKE A50: 3,360,250 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
    LEAVE WITH NO DEAL: 392,966 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/229963
    DEAL: 62 (yes you read that right) https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/233104
    Whose side is she really on?

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1109121882312396801

    I guess this is not one of the polls where Mr Glenn comments 'the trend is your friend'....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    tpfkar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Do opinion polls suggest more Conservative voters want May's deal or No deal?

    If you'll accept petition signatures, current totals are:

    REVOKE A50: 3,360,250 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
    LEAVE WITH NO DEAL: 392,966 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/229963
    DEAL: 62 (yes you read that right) https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/233104
    Whose side is she really on?

    No I said opinion polls not voodoo polls
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    CarlottaVance said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.

    Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.
    He does have the air of Captain Mainwaring about him.
    More Chief Warden Hodges.......

    Pike is already cast......

    Captain Mainwaring: Mrs May - those leadership & communication skills....
    Lance Corporal Jones: The BDS Crew (Grayling/Adonis/Grieve/Soubry)
    Sergeant Wilson: Ken Clarke
    Private Walker: David Davis/Boris
    Private Godfrey: Chris Grayling
    Private Fraser: Corbyn
    Rev Timothy Farthing MA (Oxon): Letwin
    Maurice Yeatman (Verger): Gove
    Unfair! Private Walker generally delivered the nefarious goods he offered.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Recidivist said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Out Canvassing tomorrow.

    Its a bad time BREXIT and Local Elections don't mix

    I'll be marching tomorrow. There is only one issue on the agenda at the moment.
    Palestine

    Sincerely yours,
    Jeremy Corbyn.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    tpfkar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Do opinion polls suggest more Conservative voters want May's deal or No deal?

    If you'll accept petition signatures, current totals are:

    REVOKE A50: 3,360,250 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
    LEAVE WITH NO DEAL: 392,966 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/229963
    DEAL: 62 (yes you read that right) https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/233104
    Whose side is she really on?

    Amazing, the deal petition has gone up at least 13 since I signed it.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Do opinion polls suggest more Conservative voters want May's deal or No deal?

    I think they're split fairly evenly. However the one thing that united them and business etc is that they want an end to uncertainty. May's deal does that as does No Deal (although it's not an option I'd personally want). A long delay, Brexit uncertainty, a new set of Euro elections are anathema to most.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    edited March 2019
    Recidivist said:

    Scott_P said:

    The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.

    The DUP are crying No Surrender.

    They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.

    No flowers...

    They aren't going to get any Brexit.
    No, I think that's the likeliest outcome now. May and/or the government will collapse before 12 April, the Commons will vote to accept the EU's proffered longer extension and the EU will agree in the hope that within 9 months the UK will have come up with a coherent way forward. Which will have to involve a general election or referendum or perhaps both.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,146
    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FPT

    Greg Clark announced that TM will bring in indicative votes next week

    I hope she has finally decided to back the grown ups and abandon the ludicrous ERG

    Except it seems from twitter that No. 10 now pouring cold water all over this.

    I am hopelessly lost now.
    Looks as if it has changed. DUP shooting down MV3 changes it for TM

    Why fight a lost cause, do something that unites the house and maybe keeps her as PM
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,146
    Pulpstar said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.

    Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.
    He does have the air of Captain Mainwaring about him.
    May's abject performance before the EU ruled out "No deal" on March 30th... but it could still reappear by April 12th, it isn't completely out the running yet.
    You are correct that no deal is still there but now the HOC are taking over it will be gone soon
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    NickPalmer said:

    Re the last thread, I can't imagine a sentence of a year or more being imposed. His explanation that he was (correctly) told he could split the bill between the two accounts and made up two half-invoices himself instead of asking the photographer to do it properly makes him sound like a slapdash idiot, but not a serious criminal who needs to be locked up.

    And yes I know he's a Tory and it'd be an interesting by-election, but fairness and proportionality still matter.

    Agree. Locking up slapdash idiot MPs wouldn't leave many left in fairness.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,146
    edited March 2019
    PoliticsSchmolitics said:

    Will we survive until the end of next week without at least one cabinet resignation? Hard to see how everyone stays on board after MV3 fails.

    I cannot see it being put forward now the DUP have shot it down
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    NickPalmer said:

    Re the last thread, I can't imagine a sentence of a year or more being imposed. His explanation that he was (correctly) told he could split the bill between the two accounts and made up two half-invoices himself instead of asking the photographer to do it properly makes him sound like a slapdash idiot, but not a serious criminal who needs to be locked up.

    And yes I know he's a Tory and it'd be an interesting by-election, but fairness and proportionality still matter.

    Well said.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    tpfkar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Do opinion polls suggest more Conservative voters want May's deal or No deal?

    If you'll accept petition signatures, current totals are:

    REVOKE A50: 3,360,250 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
    LEAVE WITH NO DEAL: 392,966 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/229963
    DEAL: 62 (yes you read that right) https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/233104
    Whose side is she really on?

    For completeness, SECOND REFERENDUM: 109,924 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/235138
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    CarlottaVance said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1109121882312396801

    I guess this is not one of the polls where Mr Glenn comments 'the trend is your friend'....
    The long-term trend is your friend.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FPT

    Greg Clark announced that TM will bring in indicative votes next week

    I hope she has finally decided to back the grown ups and abandon the ludicrous ERG

    Except it seems from twitter that No. 10 now pouring cold water all over this.

    I am hopelessly lost now.
    Looks as if it has changed. DUP shooting down MV3 changes it for TM

    Why fight a lost cause, do something that unites the house and maybe keeps her as PM
    This all rather depends on MPs understanding that the WA is not up for renegotiation while the PD is (within reason (I'd put more water in it - ed.))

    I am not overly optimistic.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    edited March 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Do opinion polls suggest more Conservative voters want May's deal or No deal?

    There's one from Survation (11.01.19) suggesting Conservative voters would prefer May's Deal to No Deal by 50/37. It's Table 35.

    https://www.survation.com/archive/2019-2/

    As far as I can tell, support for No Deal, May's Deal, and Brexit generally runs at 70-75% among Conservative voters, among a range of pollsters.

    All but half a dozen Conservative MPs know they've got to deliver some form of Brexit if they want to satisfy their voters.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Revokers struggling to get 5m

    Currently 14m short of 17.4m
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    What is so frustrating is that there are some of us on the Leave side who proposed exactly what Alastair is talking about within a day or so of the referendum. But of course we have no power and no political ambition so were never going to be listened to.

    It is also worth pointing out that some Remainers' answer to the suggestion that we should treat this as a cross party/cross opinion issue was to say stuff that this will be your problem not ours. Which is hardly on keeping with the sort of reconciliation that Alastair talks about.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.

    Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.
    He does have the air of Captain Mainwaring about him.
    May's abject performance before the EU ruled out "No deal" on March 30th... but it could still reappear by April 12th, it isn't completely out the running yet.
    You are correct that no deal is still there but now the HOC are taking over it will be gone soon
    Accidental No Deal remains a real possibility, if the Commons cannot agree anything.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    bigjohnowls said:

    Is this the #CorbynsCustomsUnion thread?

    Genuine question.

    when the EU say the current deal is the only deal they can offer and only one possible - is that based on TMay's red-lines basis OR is it the case even if Jezza (but actually Starmer) were doing the negotiations? if the latter then this CCU stuff is as pointless as the unicorns and owls isn't it?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    What is so frustrating is that there are some of us on the Leave side who proposed exactly what Alastair is talking about within a day or so of the referendum. But of course we have no power and no political ambition so were never going to be listened to.

    It is also worth pointing out that some Remainers' answer to the suggestion that we should treat this as a cross party/cross opinion issue was to say stuff that this will be your problem not ours. Which is hardly on keeping with the sort of reconciliation that Alastair talks about.

    But Richard, it is your problem not Remainers'. Remainers don't have any interest in seeing Brexit work.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    dixiedean said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.

    Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.
    He does have the air of Captain Mainwaring about him.
    More Chief Warden Hodges.......

    Pike is already cast......

    Captain Mainwaring: Mrs May - those leadership & communication skills....
    Lance Corporal Jones: The BDS Crew (Grayling/Adonis/Grieve/Soubry)
    Sergeant Wilson: Ken Clarke
    Private Walker: David Davis/Boris
    Private Godfrey: Chris Grayling
    Private Fraser: Corbyn
    Rev Timothy Farthing MA (Oxon): Letwin
    Maurice Yeatman (Verger): Gove
    Unfair! Private Walker generally delivered the nefarious goods he offered.
    and Godfrey was a war hero!!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,146
    anothernick said:

    Recidivist said:

    Scott_P said:

    The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.

    The DUP are crying No Surrender.

    They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.

    No flowers...

    They aren't going to get any Brexit.
    No, I think that's the likeliest outcome now. May and/or the government will collapse before 12 April, the Commons will vote to accept the EU's proffered longer extension and the EU will agree in the hope that within 9 months the UK will have come up with a coherent way forward. Which will have to involve a general election or referendum or perhaps both.
    And how do we do this with no MEPs. Without MEPs we cannot be in the EU
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    Agree with much of the Header but in one important respect I don't.

    I view May's Deal as the platform for a 'softish' Brexit that neither panders to Hard Leavers nor tramples roughshod over Remainers.

    The only legally binding part of the Deal is the WA, which via the Backstop steers to a closely aligned Future Relationship.

    This displeases Hard Leavers, being less than a clean break, and it displeases Hard Remainers, being less than staying in the EU.

    It is, in other words, just the sort of compromise that one would have hoped and expected the government to have negotiated.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Ishmael_Z said:

    tpfkar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Do opinion polls suggest more Conservative voters want May's deal or No deal?

    If you'll accept petition signatures, current totals are:

    REVOKE A50: 3,360,250 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
    LEAVE WITH NO DEAL: 392,966 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/229963
    DEAL: 62 (yes you read that right) https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/233104
    Whose side is she really on?

    For completeness, SECOND REFERENDUM: 109,924 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/235138
    393k for Leave
    3.5m for Remain

    Old buggers dont have Computers!!!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    As Brexit gets more surreal, the former Italian Prime Minister has quoted the Spice Girls in support of his argument that Britain needs to rethink:

    https://www.ft.com/content/bff3e90a-4c8f-11e9-bde6-79eaea5acb64
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Recidivist said:

    Scott_P said:

    The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.

    The DUP are crying No Surrender.

    They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.

    No flowers...

    They aren't going to get any Brexit.
    No Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Only remainers want another go...

    https://twitter.com/ConorBurnsUK/status/1109129647265062912

    OH, hang on a minute:

    The question of a second referendum was raised by Mr Farage in an interview with the Mirror in which he said: "In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the Remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Is this the #CorbynsCustomsUnion thread?

    Genuine question.

    when the EU say the current deal is the only deal they can offer and only one possible - is that based on TMay's red-lines basis OR is it the case even if Jezza (but actually Starmer) were doing the negotiations? if the latter then this CCU stuff is as pointless as the unicorns and owls isn't it?
    No because the WA is unaffected just that a #CCU that we know the EU will accept is added to PD
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    AlastairMeeks said:

    As Brexit gets more surreal, the former Italian Prime Minister has quoted the Spice Girls in support of his argument that Britain needs to rethink:

    https://www.ft.com/content/bff3e90a-4c8f-11e9-bde6-79eaea5acb64

    That we need to zig-a-zig-a?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    edited March 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Do opinion polls suggest more Conservative voters want May's deal or No deal?

    There's one from Survation (11.01.19) suggesting Conservative voters would prefer May's Deal to No Deal by 50/37. It's Table 35.

    https://www.survation.com/archive/2019-2/

    As far as I can tell, support for No Deal, May's Deal, and Brexit generally runs at 70-75% among Conservative voters, among a range of pollsters.

    All but half a dozen Conservative MPs know they've got to deliver some form of Brexit if they want to satisfy their voters.


    Following on, here you have support for Brexit among Conservatives ranging from 70% for May's Deal, to 72% for No Deal, to 74% to Brexit in general.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/26b2mrd7yn/PeoplesVote_March19th_SnapPoll_final_updated_w.pdf

    Provisionally, I'd conclude that Conservative voters are fairly relaxed about the form that Brexit takes, so long as it takes place.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Slackbladder said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    As Brexit gets more surreal, the former Italian Prime Minister has quoted the Spice Girls in support of his argument that Britain needs to rethink:

    https://www.ft.com/content/bff3e90a-4c8f-11e9-bde6-79eaea5acb64

    That we need to zig-a-zig-a?
    As the Spice Girls sang: “Now don’t go wasting my precious time/Get your act together we could be just fine”.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited March 2019
    Slackbladder said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    As Brexit gets more surreal, the former Italian Prime Minister has quoted the Spice Girls in support of his argument that Britain needs to rethink:

    https://www.ft.com/content/bff3e90a-4c8f-11e9-bde6-79eaea5acb64

    That we need to zig-a-zig-a?
    That is indeed the song he references, though he doesn't ask us to tell him what we want, what we really really want.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1109091031872622594
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2019
    bigjohnowls said:

    Revokers struggling to get 5m

    Currently 14m short of 17.4m

    Leavers are less likely to be online of course, so it's not a level playing field.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Sounds like a big anti-terrorist operation in Germany has been going down today,

    https://www.fnp.de/frankfurt/frankfurt-hessen-sek-einsatz-nied-heusingerstrasse-zr-11876564.html
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    dixiedean said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.

    Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.
    He does have the air of Captain Mainwaring about him.
    More Chief Warden Hodges.......

    Pike is already cast......

    Captain Mainwaring: Mrs May - those leadership & communication skills....
    Lance Corporal Jones: The BDS Crew (Grayling/Adonis/Grieve/Soubry)
    Sergeant Wilson: Ken Clarke
    Private Walker: David Davis/Boris
    Private Godfrey: Chris Grayling
    Private Fraser: Corbyn
    Rev Timothy Farthing MA (Oxon): Letwin
    Maurice Yeatman (Verger): Gove
    Unfair! Private Walker generally delivered the nefarious goods he offered.
    The U boat captain taking down names for later retribution after final victory could be any number of Brexitloons. Just for his prickly humorlessness and laffs, I'll go for Hannan.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    What is so frustrating is that there are some of us on the Leave side who proposed exactly what Alastair is talking about within a day or so of the referendum. But of course we have no power and no political ambition so were never going to be listened to.

    It is also worth pointing out that some Remainers' answer to the suggestion that we should treat this as a cross party/cross opinion issue was to say stuff that this will be your problem not ours. Which is hardly on keeping with the sort of reconciliation that Alastair talks about.

    But Richard, it is your problem not Remainers'. Remainers don't have any interest in seeing Brexit work.
    Which completely undermines everything you said in your article. Are you sure you don't have a split personality?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Is this the #CorbynsCustomsUnion thread?

    Genuine question.

    when the EU say the current deal is the only deal they can offer and only one possible - is that based on TMay's red-lines basis OR is it the case even if Jezza (but actually Starmer) were doing the negotiations? if the latter then this CCU stuff is as pointless as the unicorns and owls isn't it?
    The red lines primarily effect the PD, not the WA which is about settling debts and the backstop - which is a function of the red lines. So loosening of the PD would delight the EU - and depending on how loose, may substantially reduce the need for or eliminate the backstop.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Pulpstar, stop right now, thank you very much.

    [As an aside, Ginger Spice is now married to Red Bull team principal Christian Horner].
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Slackbladder said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    As Brexit gets more surreal, the former Italian Prime Minister has quoted the Spice Girls in support of his argument that Britain needs to rethink:

    https://www.ft.com/content/bff3e90a-4c8f-11e9-bde6-79eaea5acb64

    That we need to zig-a-zig-a?
    That is indeed the song he references, though he doesn't ask us to tell him what we want, what we really really want.
    To be honest i'd rather 'slam my body down and wind it all around'....
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    anothernick said:

    Recidivist said:

    Scott_P said:

    The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.

    The DUP are crying No Surrender.

    They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.

    No flowers...

    They aren't going to get any Brexit.
    No, I think that's the likeliest outcome now. May and/or the government will collapse before 12 April, the Commons will vote to accept the EU's proffered longer extension and the EU will agree in the hope that within 9 months the UK will have come up with a coherent way forward. Which will have to involve a general election or referendum or perhaps both.
    And how do we do this with no MEPs. Without MEPs we cannot be in the EU
    We will take part in the election. The 12 April decision will be to extend on the conditions the EU has set, including participation in the election.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    AndyJS said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Revokers struggling to get 5m

    Currently 14m short of 17.4m

    Leavers are less likely to be online of course, so it's not a level playing field.
    Shome mistake surely? I thought Leavers spent all day looking at Russian-funded FB ads for No Deal?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    What is so frustrating is that there are some of us on the Leave side who proposed exactly what Alastair is talking about within a day or so of the referendum. But of course we have no power and no political ambition so were never going to be listened to.

    It is also worth pointing out that some Remainers' answer to the suggestion that we should treat this as a cross party/cross opinion issue was to say stuff that this will be your problem not ours. Which is hardly on keeping with the sort of reconciliation that Alastair talks about.

    But Richard, it is your problem not Remainers'. Remainers don't have any interest in seeing Brexit work.
    Which completely undermines everything you said in your article. Are you sure you don't have a split personality?
    It is the winners' responsibility to establish a consensus. You cannot expect the losers to set the parameters for that or work towards it until the winners see the need for it. They still don't.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,146
    anothernick said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    anothernick said:

    Recidivist said:

    Scott_P said:

    The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.

    The DUP are crying No Surrender.

    They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.

    No flowers...

    They aren't going to get any Brexit.
    No, I think that's the likeliest outcome now. May and/or the government will collapse before 12 April, the Commons will vote to accept the EU's proffered longer extension and the EU will agree in the hope that within 9 months the UK will have come up with a coherent way forward. Which will have to involve a general election or referendum or perhaps both.
    And how do we do this with no MEPs. Without MEPs we cannot be in the EU
    We will take part in the election. The 12 April decision will be to extend on the conditions the EU has set, including participation in the election.
    And where is the enabling bill to take part in the EU elections
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    What is so frustrating is that there are some of us on the Leave side who proposed exactly what Alastair is talking about within a day or so of the referendum. But of course we have no power and no political ambition so were never going to be listened to.

    It is also worth pointing out that some Remainers' answer to the suggestion that we should treat this as a cross party/cross opinion issue was to say stuff that this will be your problem not ours. Which is hardly on keeping with the sort of reconciliation that Alastair talks about.

    But Richard, it is your problem not Remainers'. Remainers don't have any interest in seeing Brexit work.
    This is certainly true now but in the immediate aftermath of the referendum things were different. At that stage few remainers thought the decision could be reversed and I think an attempt by May to seek consensus would have been likely to have borne fruit. But that would have involved her dumping the ERG and risking a split in the Tory Party and, as we know, her instinct has always been to put party before country.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited March 2019
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sounds like a big anti-terrorist operation in Germany has been going down today,

    https://www.fnp.de/frankfurt/frankfurt-hessen-sek-einsatz-nied-heusingerstrasse-zr-11876564.html

    Which flavour of terrorist is it, Pepe or Achmed ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1109103457103945728

    And who can blame them.

    She's had a chance. MPs need to seize this now, and ignore her. In office but not in power.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1109135127555252225
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    anothernick said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    anothernick said:

    Recidivist said:

    Scott_P said:

    The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.

    The DUP are crying No Surrender.

    They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.

    No flowers...

    They aren't going to get any Brexit.
    No, I think that's the likeliest outcome now. May and/or the government will collapse before 12 April, the Commons will vote to accept the EU's proffered longer extension and the EU will agree in the hope that within 9 months the UK will have come up with a coherent way forward. Which will have to involve a general election or referendum or perhaps both.
    And how do we do this with no MEPs. Without MEPs we cannot be in the EU
    We will take part in the election. The 12 April decision will be to extend on the conditions the EU has set, including participation in the election.
    If I were the EU hierarchy, I would be channelling Laocoön: Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes. The idea of a cohort of British MEPs creating havoc in the European Parliament would appal me.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    7 flavours of Brexit !

  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    anothernick said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    anothernick said:

    Recidivist said:

    Scott_P said:

    The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.

    The DUP are crying No Surrender.

    They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.

    No flowers...

    They aren't going to get any Brexit.
    No, I think that's the likeliest outcome now. May and/or the government will collapse before 12 April, the Commons will vote to accept the EU's proffered longer extension and the EU will agree in the hope that within 9 months the UK will have come up with a coherent way forward. Which will have to involve a general election or referendum or perhaps both.
    And how do we do this with no MEPs. Without MEPs we cannot be in the EU
    We will take part in the election. The 12 April decision will be to extend on the conditions the EU has set, including participation in the election.
    And where is the enabling bill to take part in the EU elections
    Could be rushed through in 24 hours, all the systems needed are there, it has even been rumoured that the Electoral Commission has started planning. Elections can be run very speedily in the UK - before FTPA the formal timetable for a general election could be less than 3 weeks. In Feb 1974 polling day was exactly 3 weeks after the announcement of the election.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    AlastairMeeks said:

    anothernick said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    anothernick said:

    Recidivist said:

    Scott_P said:

    The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.

    The DUP are crying No Surrender.

    They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.

    No flowers...

    They aren't going to get any Brexit.
    No, I think that's the likeliest outcome now. May and/or the government will collapse before 12 April, the Commons will vote to accept the EU's proffered longer extension and the EU will agree in the hope that within 9 months the UK will have come up with a coherent way forward. Which will have to involve a general election or referendum or perhaps both.
    And how do we do this with no MEPs. Without MEPs we cannot be in the EU
    We will take part in the election. The 12 April decision will be to extend on the conditions the EU has set, including participation in the election.
    If I were the EU hierarchy, I would be channelling Laocoön: Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes. The idea of a cohort of British MEPs creating havoc in the European Parliament would appal me.
    democracy is messy, deal with it.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, stop right now, thank you very much.

    [As an aside, Ginger Spice is now married to Red Bull team principal Christian Horner].

    Geri Halliwell looks far, far better now than she did then. She is like a fine wine – she gets better with age.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    Sean_F said:

    Accidental No Deal remains a real possibility, if the Commons cannot agree anything.

    If MPs want anything other than the May Deal or No Deal they will have to replace her with a new PM who is both willing and able to negotiate a Brexit that looks suspiciously like Labour's policy. That can logically only be Jeremy Corbyn. And therefore I can't see it. I can only see 2 outcomes.

    (i) No deal exit on 12/4.

    (ii) Exit on 22/5 via the WA only (with the PD put on ice pending further talks).

    And either way, a new Tory leader and a GE in the summer.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Off topic: Railway chaos in Manchester this afternoon. At least I'm now on the move, and unlike plenty of folk on this TPExpress service I have a seat.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Will there be a legal action available if we're denied MEPs and we're still in the EU during the time ?
    I'd like a representation on stuff like Article 13 ta very much if we're in the club.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,146
    anothernick said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    anothernick said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    anothernick said:

    Recidivist said:

    Scott_P said:

    The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.

    The DUP are crying No Surrender.

    They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.

    No flowers...

    They aren't going to get any Brexit.
    No, I think that's the likeliest outcome now. May and/or the government will collapse before 12 April, the Commons will vote to accept the EU's proffered longer extension and the EU will agree in the hope that within 9 months the UK will have come up with a coherent way forward. Which will have to involve a general election or referendum or perhaps both.
    And how do we do this with no MEPs. Without MEPs we cannot be in the EU
    We will take part in the election. The 12 April decision will be to extend on the conditions the EU has set, including participation in the election.
    And where is the enabling bill to take part in the EU elections
    Could be rushed through in 24 hours, all the systems needed are there, it has even been rumoured that the Electoral Commission has started planning. Elections can be run very speedily in the UK - before FTPA the formal timetable for a general election could be less than 3 weeks. In Feb 1974 polling day was exactly 3 weeks after the announcement of the election.
    Needs majority for it in the HOC. ERG would do everything to sabotage it
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    kinabalu said:

    Agree with much of the Header but in one important respect I don't.

    I view May's Deal as the platform for a 'softish' Brexit that neither panders to Hard Leavers nor tramples roughshod over Remainers.

    The only legally binding part of the Deal is the WA, which via the Backstop steers to a closely aligned Future Relationship.

    This displeases Hard Leavers, being less than a clean break, and it displeases Hard Remainers, being less than staying in the EU.

    It is, in other words, just the sort of compromise that one would have hoped and expected the government to have negotiated.

    +1 If it is wrecked I'm strongly for revoke.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    And where is the enabling bill to take part in the EU elections

    Apparently passed in 2002 if I am reading this right

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1109136096770883586
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    .
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1109137487136542721
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    SandyRentool said:

    Off topic: Railway chaos in Manchester this afternoon. At least I'm now on the move, and unlike plenty of folk on this TPExpress service I have a seat.

    Failing Grayling again?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Recidivist said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Out Canvassing tomorrow.

    Its a bad time BREXIT and Local Elections don't mix

    I'll be marching tomorrow. There is only one issue on the agenda at the moment.
    Palestine

    Sincerely yours,
    Jeremy Corbyn.
    No prizes for guessing what our CLP had a motion on last month. Special prize for guessing the previous month's topic...
This discussion has been closed.