I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Precisely. If we go to No Deal the EU will very rapidly want to talk about a trade deal as they won't be getting a penny of their £39 billion (which we would still agree to pay as part of the negotiations but now have as leverege) plus the Irish border will be their problem rather than ours.
No because crashing out with no deal will not magically remove our commitments on the £39 billion.
Yes it will. The EU will have no way to compel us to pay that money if there's no agreement. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. They'll still morally think we owe them it, but legally it will take an agreement - a deal if you will - to get that money from us.
We're on the hook for about £12-14bn iirc as it relates to pension liabilities which the EU could win arbitration over. The rest wouldn't be payable, though I expect if we want to get a trade deal done we'd make some kind of solidarity payment.
All but three of the 20 MPs who spoke at last night’s 80-strong meeting of the European Research Group, demanded that she quit, Christopher Hope reports at the Telegraph.
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Precisely. If we go to No Deal the EU will very rapidly want to talk about a trade deal as they won't be getting a penny of their £39 billion (which we would still agree to pay as part of the negotiations but now have as leverege) plus the Irish border will be their problem rather than ours.
No because crashing out with no deal will not magically remove our commitments on the £39 billion.
Yes it will. The EU will have no way to compel us to pay that money if there's no agreement. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. They'll still morally think we owe them it, but legally it will take an agreement - a deal if you will - to get that money from us.
We're on the hook for about £12-14bn iirc as it relates to pension liabilities which the EU could win arbitration over. The rest wouldn't be payable, though I expect if we want to get a trade deal done we'd make some kind of solidarity payment.
All but three of the 20 MPs who spoke at last night’s 80-strong meeting of the European Research Group, demanded that she quit, Christopher Hope reports at the Telegraph.
Didn't they demand that last December? Would mean more if non-ERGers call for her to quit.
The electorate are angry with both main parties if my Canvassing is anything to go by.
So who benefits then ?
God knows.
It would be ironic if the LibDems gained hundreds of Councillors just at the point that Cable goes.
Well one ranting Brexiteer told me he was voting LD this time because they will deliver BREXIT. When i pointed out they were most pro Remain of all 3 parties he said he will vote UKIP then.
Ther is unlikely to be a UKIP candidate so I think he will not vote but who knows.
The anger on the doorstep is at levels I have never encountered TBH
All but three of the 20 MPs who spoke at last night’s 80-strong meeting of the European Research Group, demanded that she quit, Christopher Hope reports at the Telegraph.
Didn't they demand that last December? Would mean more if non-ERGers call for her to quit.
It's like ground hog day every day...from both Tories and labour.
And this is the only reason that Theresa there-isn't-a-word-in-English-to-express-her-abjectness May is still polling ahead of each of Labour, Corbyn and the Conservatives. She is seen to be wading through their tide of shit. A tide into which they continue to defacate....
There is a residual sense of sympathy or pity for the Prime Minister but as has been noted downthread, the public mood seems to be shifting away from "it's everyone's fault" to the specific "it's the Conservative Government's fault" and we are 6 weeks away from a huge round of local elections where the Conservatives are defending 5,000 seats.
Of course an approaching election will crystallize annoyance into a desire to kick someone, and the government will always take precedence fir that kicking when everyone is an idiot. May 2 will be a bloodbath whatever happens
The Conservatives are bound to lose seats, as they were 6% ahead, in 2015, when they were last contested. However, losses will be limited by the fact that most seats being contested will be in Leave-voting districts.
Sure but if we are 'in delay' will there not be a mass vote against as s 'fail and this is what you get' thing?
What scale of Tory losses can they take before they can't shrug it off? They lose 20%, 30%, more?
I liked this: In the early 1990s the government used to boast that the country was “punching above its weight”. This can sound quite clever until you get into a real fight, and someone punches you back.
It was precisely the thinking in Iraq and Afghan which resulted in matters proceeding not necessarily to our advantage.
The EU has learnt nothing from the process either.
Wouldn't it be more true to say that the EU has learnt different lessons from the ones you wanted it to?
No, it's reinforced the EU's existing prejudices rather than challenged them.
It believes it has, and is, making an example of the UK, teaching it a lesson, and discouraging others to its benefit as a whole.
I see zero evidence it's done any reflection on why the UK voted to Leave, and how the EU might need to respond to avoid such calamity in future, other than the reflexive dogmatic response of More Europe.
Like our Parliamentarians the EU is a Poker player going All In.
Worst case scenario for EU zealots is the UK exits without a deal and it proves not only not to be a disaster but to be a success instead. That would really put a rocket booster under sceptics across the continent. If we exit without a deal the EU kind of needs us to fail.
Yep!
In theory they want to treat us like North Korea if there's no deal, but in practice the nuts and bolts of agreements to keep trade flowing are either done already or close to being so. The worst nightmare for the EU is that, a year down the line, no-deal Brexit is seen as a success.
Personally I see the current crisis as inherently the same as the referendum. The powerful, educated and metropolitan supprt remain in greater numbers, and this is generally the make up of our media, political class and civil service. They are now having to enact something they are deeply unhappy with and this is why May kicks the can down the road, the only overwhelming majority is for no deal, and a significant number of MPs believe the way to enact leaving the EU is to have another referendum which they hope remain would win.
In reality and as pointed out by John Curtice yesterday People have not really changed your mind, even if you think that polls that predicted a remain win are now accurately Leavers.
That may well be true, but the problem at the heart of that analysis and this whole circus is that the things people are unhappy about WILL NOT BE SOLVED BY BREXIT!!!
If politicians had been honest with the public about the issues, and the EU, we would not be in this mess right now.
The same could be said for voting for a political party - but we don’t just abando the concept of democracy! Just because the ill educated poorer people of the country want something and are prepared to vote for it, doesn’t mean that we need to come up with a la a Roger a multi billion pound advertising campaign to tell people they were wrong. Their wishes need to be respected. And don’t get onto my constituents didn’t vote to be poorer, as there have been plenty of vox pops on the news where people say go ahead I don’t mind if I am poorer. What we need is a society where there are more opportunities and routes to success for those at the bottom. My parent grew up in social housing in Liverpool in the fifties and sixties. I doubt they would have the opportunity in this day and age to make a better life for themselves.
Personally I see the current crisis as inherently the same as the referendum. The powerful, educated and metropolitan supprt remain in greater numbers, and this is generally the make up of our media, political class and civil service. They are now having to enact something they are deeply unhappy with and this is why May kicks the can down the road, the only overwhelming majority is for no deal, and a significant number of MPs believe the way to enact leaving the EU is to have another referendum which they hope remain would win.
In reality and as pointed out by John Curtice yesterday People have not really changed your mind, even if you think that polls that predicted a remain win are now accurately Leavers.
That may well be true, but the problem at the heart of that analysis and this whole circus is that the things people are unhappy about WILL NOT BE SOLVED BY BREXIT!!!
If politicians had been honest with the public about the issues, and the EU, we would not be in this mess right now.
The same could be said for voting for a political party - but we don’t just abando the concept of democracy! Just because the ill educated poorer people of the country want something and are prepared to vote for it, doesn’t mean that we need to come up with a la a Roger a multi billion pound advertising campaign to tell people they were wrong. Their wishes need to be respected. And don’t get onto my constituents didn’t vote to be poorer, as there have been plenty of vox pops on the news where people say go ahead I don’t mind if I am poorer. What we need is a society where there are more opportunities and routes to success for those at the bottom. My parent grew up in social housing in Liverpool in the fifties and sixties. I doubt they would have the opportunity in this day and age to make a better life for themselves.
The EU has learnt nothing from the process either.
Wouldn't it be more true to say that the EU has learnt different lessons from the ones you wanted it to?
No, it's reinforced the EU's existing prejudices rather than challenged them.
It believes it has, and is, making an example of the UK, teaching it a lesson, and discouraging others to its benefit as a whole.
I see zero evidence it's done any reflection on why the UK voted to Leave, and how the EU might need to respond to avoid such calamity in future, other than the reflexive dogmatic response of More Europe.
Like our Parliamentarians the EU is a Poker player going All In.
Worst case scenario for EU zealots is the UK exits without a deal and it proves not only not to be a disaster but to be a success instead. That would really put a rocket booster under sceptics across the continent. If we exit without a deal the EU kind of needs us to fail.
Yep!
In theory they want to treat us like North Korea if there's no deal, but in practice the nuts and bolts of agreements to keep trade flowing are either done already or close to being so. The worst nightmare for the EU is that, a year down the line, no-deal Brexit is seen as a success.
Christ, the "German car manufacturers" school of thought has mutated.
Toyota has announced it is to start making Suzuki-badged cars at its Derbyshire factory as part of a collaboration agreement between the two manufacturers.
The move will see the company’s Burnaston plant supply Suzuki Motor Corporation with cars based on the new Corolla Wagon - a car which the factory officially started making at the beginning of the year.
Although built by Toyota staff, the vehicles will be badged as Suzuki cars. The Derbyshire factory is expected to start making the vehicles towards the end of 2020. The cars will be hybrid-electric vehicles, fitted with hybrid engines produced at Toyota’s engine manufacturing plant at Deeside, North Wales
If my medicine supply is interupted and I subsequently develop a resistance to it, a very real possibility; then I don’t care if we should respect the vote of some bigot in Stoke on Trent or somewhere who wanted to stop the immigration of brown people.
The EU has learnt nothing from the process either.
Wouldn't it be more true to say that the EU has learnt different lessons from the ones you wanted it to?
No, it's reinforced the EU's existing prejudices rather than challenged them.
It believes it has, and is, making an example of the UK, teaching it a lesson, and discouraging others to its benefit as a whole.
I see zero evidence it's done any reflection on why the UK voted to Leave, and how the EU might need to respond to avoid such calamity in future, other than the reflexive dogmatic response of More Europe.
It's possible to reflect on why the UK voted to leave and come to the conclusion that indulging our political class with opt-outs and special treatment, and helping them dissemble about the EU to their voters was a large part of the problem.
Personally I see the current crisis as inherently the same as the referendum. The powerful, educated and metropolitan supprt remain in greater numbers, and this is generally the make up of our media, political class and civil service. They are now having to enact something they are deeply unhappy with and this is why May kicks the can down the road, the only overwhelming majority is for no deal, and a significant number of MPs believe the way to enact leaving the EU is to have another referendum which they hope remain would win.
In reality and as pointed out by John Curtice yesterday People have not really changed your mind, even if you think that polls that predicted a remain win are now accurately Leavers.
That may well be true, but the problem at the heart of that analysis and this whole circus is that the things people are unhappy about WILL NOT BE SOLVED BY BREXIT!!!
If politicians had been honest with the public about the issues, and the EU, we would not be in this mess right now.
The same could be said for voting for a political party - but we don’t just abando the concept of democracy! Just because the ill educated poorer people of the country want something and are prepared to vote for it, doesn’t mean that we need to come up with a la a Roger a multi billion pound advertising campaign to tell people they were wrong. Their wishes need to be respected. And don’t get onto my constituents didn’t vote to be poorer, as there have been plenty of vox pops on the news where people say go ahead I don’t mind if I am poorer. What we need is a society where there are more opportunities and routes to success for those at the bottom. My parent grew up in social housing in Liverpool in the fifties and sixties. I doubt they would have the opportunity in this day and age to make a better life for themselves.
Great post but the analogy is more like voting to make Didcot a nuclear free zone. Voting Leave does not solve the problem they faced.
@Nemtynakht Brexit is going to reduce opputunities for success, not increase them.
I disagree - It’s going to make bugger all difference if you live on a council estate in one of our big cities. For the top two quartiles it will make a big difference. Less opportunity as FoM goes. Financial shock affecting those who have propoerty or investments. Business failure.
@Nemtynakht Brexit is going to reduce opputunities for success, not increase them.
I disagree - It’s going to make bugger all difference if you live on a council estate in one of our big cities. For the top two quartiles it will make a big difference. Less opportunity as FoM goes. Financial shock affecting those who have propoerty or investments. Business failure.
So a big knock-on effect on those living in a council estate in one of our big cities, who are dependent on the taxes paid by the top two quartiles (and especially the top 0.1%, who pay 8% of all income tax and NI).
The voluntary Conservative party in the country wont put up with a delay beyond June. It doesn't look like enough ERG types will support the WA now or in 3 months time. WTO exit it is then. The country will at least know where we stand and when the much forecast armageddon doesn't materialise it will will all come as a pleasant relief to most people.
The voluntary Conservative party in the country wont put up with a delay beyond June. It doesn't look like enough ERG types will support the WA now or in 3 months time. WTO exit it is then. The country will at least know where we stand and when the much forecast armageddon doesn't materialise it will will all come as a pleasant relief to most people.
If Labour collude with the Tories in bringing about no deal, by not pressing for a longer extension, and in/out polls show numbers like that, it won't just be the Tories that are destroyed for a generation.
If Labour collude with the Tories in bringing about no deal, by not pressing for a longer extension, and in/out polls show numbers like that, it won't just be the Tories that are destroyed for a generation.
If Labour collude with the Tories in bringing about no deal, by not pressing for a longer extension, and in/out polls show numbers like that, it won't just be the Tories that are destroyed for a generation.
One reason I want Brexit out of the way is I'm keen to see what the tiggers have to offer by way of domestic policy
The voluntary Conservative party in the country wont put up with a delay beyond June. It doesn't look like enough ERG types will support the WA now or in 3 months time. WTO exit it is then. The country will at least know where we stand and when the much forecast armageddon doesn't materialise it will will all come as a pleasant relief to most people.
Its only a WTO exit if those on opposition benches who pretend they want to avoid no deal keep rejecting the deal.
The voluntary Conservative party in the country wont put up with a delay beyond June. It doesn't look like enough ERG types will support the WA now or in 3 months time. WTO exit it is then. The country will at least know where we stand and when the much forecast armageddon doesn't materialise it will will all come as a pleasant relief to most people.
And what if it does materialise?
Well I expect Concanvasser and other like-minded people will admit they were wrong and apologise.....no?
If Labour collude with the Tories in bringing about no deal, by not pressing for a longer extension, and in/out polls show numbers like that, it won't just be the Tories that are destroyed for a generation.
One reason I want Brexit out of the way is I'm keen to see what the tiggers have to offer by way of domestic policy
The thing is, as we talked about yesterday Andrew Yang has identified a real issue coming down the pipe at a rate of knots, and nobody here is talking about it in a forward looking way (I don't count Corbyn's back to the 70s protectionist nationalise everything as a viable solution).
@Nemtynakht Brexit is going to reduce opputunities for success, not increase them.
I disagree - It’s going to make bugger all difference if you live on a council estate in one of our big cities. For the top two quartiles it will make a big difference. Less opportunity as FoM goes. Financial shock affecting those who have propoerty or investments. Business failure.
So a big knock-on effect on those living in a council estate in one of our big cities, who are dependent on the taxes paid by the top two quartiles (and especially the top 0.1%, who pay 8% of all income tax and NI).
This is why Labour's vacillations are so iniquitous. It is these folk who will be hit first, and hardest - the very people Labour should be doing most to defend.
If Labour collude with the Tories in bringing about no deal, by not pressing for a longer extension, and in/out polls show numbers like that, it won't just be the Tories that are destroyed for a generation.
One reason I want Brexit out of the way is I'm keen to see what the tiggers have to offer by way of domestic policy
The thing is, as we talked about yesterday Andrew Yang has identified a real issue coming down the pipe at a rate of knots, and nobody here is talking about it in a forward looking way (I don't count Corbyn's back to the 70s protectionist nationalise everything as a viable solution).
The voluntary Conservative party in the country wont put up with a delay beyond June. It doesn't look like enough ERG types will support the WA now or in 3 months time. WTO exit it is then. The country will at least know where we stand and when the much forecast armageddon doesn't materialise it will will all come as a pleasant relief to most people.
And what if it does materialise?
The hyperbole used has been such that unless the NHS has to shut hospitals and Waitrose issue ration books it won't seem as bad as expected. Remainers have played it by the Osborne rule book again and over egged the pudding.
The voluntary Conservative party in the country wont put up with a delay beyond June. It doesn't look like enough ERG types will support the WA now or in 3 months time. WTO exit it is then. The country will at least know where we stand and when the much forecast armageddon doesn't materialise it will will all come as a pleasant relief to most people.
And what if it does materialise?
Well I expect Concanvasser and other like-minded people will admit they were wrong and apologise.....no?
So basically May just said she would ignore the previous vote to have a long extension which she herself suggested would be the case if her deal was not passed by today because...reasons.
So basically May just said she would ignore the previous vote to have a long extension which she herself suggested would be the case if her deal was not passed by today because...reasons.
The voluntary Conservative party in the country wont put up with a delay beyond June. It doesn't look like enough ERG types will support the WA now or in 3 months time. WTO exit it is then. The country will at least know where we stand and when the much forecast armageddon doesn't materialise it will will all come as a pleasant relief to most people.
And what if it does materialise?
The hyperbole used has been such that unless the NHS has to shut hospitals and Waitrose issue ration books it won't seem as bad as expected. Remainers have played it by the Osborne rule book again and over egged the pudding.
Just not true. It will take just one death as the result of drug shortages, or a handful of company failures, with job losses, directly and obviously attributable to hard brexit, to turn the country against those responsible.
Comments
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/yellow-vest-protesters-storm-the-attorney-generals-office-in-london-a4095836.html
What's betting Jezza leads on rural bus services?
Could be a huge number as exposed to US via Monsanto
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article190559905/Glyphosat-Debakel-fuer-Bayer-Aktie-Kursziel-um-30-Prozent-reduziert.html
Ther is unlikely to be a UKIP candidate so I think he will not vote but who knows.
The anger on the doorstep is at levels I have never encountered TBH
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1108329994420449280
https://twitter.com/AMB_1101/status/1108309299351224320
In theory they want to treat us like North Korea if there's no deal, but in practice the nuts and bolts of agreements to keep trade flowing are either done already or close to being so. The worst nightmare for the EU is that, a year down the line, no-deal Brexit is seen as a success.
She's not exactly Dick Dastardly now is she?
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1108330868156837888
https://www.ft.com/content/5655fd42-4afc-11e9-bbc9-6917dce3dc62
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1108333603384160256
I still think they were right first time on this.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1108000807948111873
We need to ban this sick filth our kids are exposed to.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1108325321814802433
(Although I confess I'm somewhat losing track - I thought parliament had already approved this?)
The move will see the company’s Burnaston plant supply Suzuki Motor Corporation with cars based on the new Corolla Wagon - a car which the factory officially started making at the beginning of the year.
Although built by Toyota staff, the vehicles will be badged as Suzuki cars. The Derbyshire factory is expected to start making the vehicles towards the end of 2020. The cars will be hybrid-electric vehicles, fitted with hybrid engines produced at Toyota’s engine manufacturing plant at Deeside, North Wales
https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/business/toyotas-factory-near-derby-start-2665443
But muh democracy.
Did we leave the 'shit place' then? I don't remember, hang on. I'll check.
Yes, I'm right, we never left, we're still in the shit place. But I think they're being a little unkind to the EU.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1108334654137004042
Does coming out in favour of a 3 month extension (11:08) mean that, in practice, Labour are coming out against a second referendum?
HAHAHAHAHAHAAAAHAAAA
Oh boy...
'I clean road signs in my spare time'
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-england-nottinghamshire-47630813/window-cleaner-makes-road-signs-sparkle
Corbyn crap.
The more things change, the more they stay the same...
To twist a phrase "The people have spoken...now let's not let the bastards speak again because they may have changed their mind"
NEW THREAD
Parliament is not currently doing its representative job ; or rather the party machines that enable it to are not.